Ok folks, it’s that time again!
Steady stream of emails lately, asking about the next get together.
Save the date, pencil it in, roll out of bed, whatever.
When: Friday June 26th, 8ish.
Location: Still TBD
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This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.
For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.
First!!!
Hello Grim,
Do you have the May/June absorption rate for Monmouth county by price range? Thanks in advance!
Raul
Buy now, before prices double just like in 2005.
“Sales in the decimated housing market may finally be bottoming, but don’t expect home prices to stop dropping before mid-2010 at the earliest, analysts and economists say.”
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/18/real_estate/housing_market_bottom.fortune/
Frank issues his call to all idiots early this weekend.
#4,
How’s your SRS doing these days?? Kind of rained out??
Dr. Doom says hyperinflation in 5-10 years
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31450173
Hyperinflation is not at all what I need. Let’s stick to 40% more declines in real estate in metro NYC/NJ, then we’ll all buy grand houses, be wise idiots, raise our babies, and deal with what comes.
Booyaaa!
Haven’t had an edition of Bank Failure Friday for awhile.
But FDIC to the rescue—2 failures today, one in NC and one in (no surprise) GA.
No link
#4,
I would not use those words, you make a living helping those people.
Otherwise you would be joining the 9.4% looking for work with your skill set.
Nom,
3 bank failures!
Number 3 was in Kansas.
did anyone get to see the D.B. report on %40 drop NY metro area?
“3 bank failures”
failures or takeover?
big difference.
I haven’t looked into the books & data, but giving what I have been seeing in the past. Its takeover of market share & consolidation.
i.e somebody is gobbling somebody, and you the sucker sap pays for it via your taxes.
SAS
nice little quote I found while surfing:
“In a digital age, data about money is worth more than money.”
~ Nicholas Negroponte
lol, look at the little rookies all wet behind the ears:
“CIA seeks laid-off bankers in N.Y. recruitment drive”
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE55H6CH20090618?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews
SAS
Crossroads,
Saw it, loved it, wanted it; you got a problem? Perhaps you bought in 2006?
cross,
Yes, I’ve read it.
So tell us what you think about it!
Before you know it, NJ prices will be going up just like it’s 2005.
California Housing Market Shows Pockets of Recovery
Prices Have Dropped Far Enough to Lure Buyers in a Trend Also Showing Up in Other Parts of the Country
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124545407944432853.html
#11,
I have seen it, it’s not big deal, it’s a revision from the March report where Karen called for -45% by August. That has not happened to she changed it to -40%. At this point she’s trying to get some media attention for her self. She sure is getting on this blog, on the street people ignore her.
Happy fathers day to all ya’ll dads too……
……Oh yeah….and Sunday is also june 21st………longest day of the year. Booyah!!!
And the rebates are back!
Just in time for the election…
3.frank says:
June 19, 2009 at 5:00 pm
Buy now, before prices double just like in 2005
Exactly, but do you think that any here will listen to you? No, there are too many pantywaist chickenshlts here like Clod moaning and wringing their damn hands.
Damn sissies. Real men buy houses.
tard (22)-
Then why do they need bimbos like Suzanne to do the research for them?
“Real men buy houses.”
frank (20)-
How old were you when your daddy left?
Real men = bag holders.
244.W8ting says:
June 19, 2009 at 7:10 pm
Thanks for the suggestions. I will be checking out Westchester and CT. My wife wants to stay in NJ (to be closer to her friends) so i’ll be checking northern NJ also (near 287)
W8: I would not allow yourself to be that far west….you will be kicking yourself….you must be right at the TZB or be doomed.
Clot…
now they are wondering why I am laughing like a hyena at work!
No coffee to spray the screen with….
too funny!!
sl
….and damn. I forgot:
F.uck F.rank!
sl
former QB bernie kosar files for bankruptcy protection
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2009-06-19-kosar-bankruptcy_N.htm
re: starter home talk …
agree that buying a ‘starter’ place is not for everyone. wasnt for us. we bought a place this year that we plan on living in for 30 years.
1) HATE moving. it’s awful.
2) how do you know you’ll have equity in 6-8 years?
3) it made sense for us and the timing was right.
the downside, of course, is work. what if one gets a job transfer?
30.yikes says:
June 20, 2009 at 12:07 am
re: starter home talk …
agree that buying a ’starter’ place is not for everyone. wasnt for us. we bought a place this year
Hell, I thought you were just another damn pantywaist shrimp, but now that you actually bought a house, I’ll have to reconsider. Generally, only real men buy houses and it’s REALLY hard to believe that you worked up the nerve to actually buy a house. You have NEVER shown yourself to be fearless, so you have to understand that your claim is suspect without some damn proof. Post the damn Hud 1 so I can confirm that you closed.
Yo Frank,
I’m all about different points of view, but I’m genuinely curious: If you think there’s no recession and housing is primed for a boost, why do you come here to persuade the ignorant renters & doomers? You just want to help us all benefit from the boom that you see coming? Wouldn’t the market’s pessimism be to your advantage if you were truly bullish?
28.me@work says:
June 19, 2009 at 11:30 pm
….and damn. I forgot:
F.uck F.rank!
sl
Calling Dr. Pottymouth….Calling Dr. Pottymouth.
Lady, do me a favor and go to the damn bathroom and clean your damn mouth out with some industrial solvent. You have the filthest mouth on this damn board and I’m getting sick of hearing it.
Hey, come visit me…. I have a speculum just for you.
sl
me (34)-
Hardy har.
If you ever advertise, this would be a great motto for your business:
“I have a speculum just for you.”
If you find a house you love and you can put down at least 20%, BUY IT. Period.
Everything else is just noise.
New Jersey
Metro: Edison-New Brunswick
What a Home Will Be Worth in 2012: $277,005
Q4 2008 price: $326,000
Projected price change by MSA: -15.0%
Projected price change by state: -13.3%
Home prices in the Edison-New Brunswick area already dropped more than 7% last year, and they are projected to fall nearly 14% this year. Despite its proximity to Manhattan, the area was particularly hurt by the mortgage bubble and rising unemployment and even by 2012, home prices will continue to be weak.
http://images.businessweek.com/ss/09/06/0618_house_worth_2012/34.htm
New York
Metro: New York-White Plains-Wayne (N.Y.-N.J.)
What a Home Will Be Worth in 2012: $343,937
Q4 2008 price: $440,000
Projected price change by MSA: -21.8%
Projected price change by state: -15.6%
One of the metros with the highest housing prices in the nation, the New York-White Plains-Wayne area is projected to have the third-largest drop in the country, behind Los Angeles and Tampa. Analysts predict that 2009 and 2010 will be the worst years, and then home prices will stabilize. Of particular concern is the impact that the crisis in the financial industry, one of the area’s largest employers, has had on the housing market. From banker to back-office staff, thousands lost their jobs or saw their incomes slashed. As Wall Street strengthens, so will real estate prices.
morning wood
>> If you find a house you love and you can put down at least 20%,
>>BUY IT. Period.
Really? Even if the price is 10% more than the previous buyer paid in 2006 without making any improvements?
I think you at least need to caveat that the seller has to have factored into the price AT LEAST the current decline since peak into the price. If you are willing to pay more than that, well, you better be certain you are going to live there until your mortgage is paid off.
Where Housing Will Be in 2012
http://images.businessweek.com/ss/09/06/0618_house_worth_2012/index.htm?campaign_id=yahoo
is the media ok? did they run this by the NAR? this cant be happening…predictions up out to 2012…..this is going to make the housing market worse…going to cause more overshoot to the downside…
i love it…our time is finally here…
i am going to print this out and provide with any offer going forward…now the new adjusted normal for house prices!!!!
i love it….
reinvestor101 #31:
[Re yikes’ home]:
… so you have to understand that your claim is suspect without some damn proof. Post the damn Hud 1 so I can confirm that you closed.
This is going to be soooo like O’s birth certificate, right?
S
Apologies if this has already been posted:
Parents Pulling the Plug On Williamsburg Trust Funders
Parental Lifelines, Frayed to Breaking
For the past five years, Ernie DiGiacomo has been able to count on parents to guarantee the $1,500 to $2,500 rents he charges for the 15 apartments he owns in Williamsburg, Brooklyn. When he called renters who had missed payments, he often heard, “My parents will send you a check.”
But in the past six months, the parents are pulling back financial help, he said, and as a result, he has watched more renters move out.
“Most of them are moving back with parents,” Mr. DiGiacomo said.
Luis Illades, an owner of the Urban Rustic Market and Cafe on North 12th Street, said he had seen a steady number of applicants, in their late 20s, who had never held paid jobs: They were interns at a modeling agency, for example, or worked at a college radio station. In some cases, applicants have stormed out of the market after hearing the job requirements.
“They say, ‘You want me to work eight hours?’ ” Mr. Illades said. “There is a bubble bursting.”
Famed for its concentration of heavily subsidized 20-something residents — also nicknamed trust-funders or trustafarians — Williamsburg is showing signs of trouble. Parents whose money helped fuel one of the city’s most radical gentrifications in recent years have stopped buying their children new luxury condos, subsidizing rents and providing cash to spend at Bedford Avenue’s boutiques and coffee houses.
For 18 months after graduating from Colby College, Jack Drury, 24, lived the way many Williamsburg residents do: He followed his passions, working in satellite radio and playing guitar. He earned money as a bicycle messenger and, on occasion, turned to his parents for money.
But as the recession deepened last fall, his parents had to cut the staff at their event planning company to 30 workers from 50. Asked for his help, Mr. Drury cast aside his other pursuits and started work as a project manager for his parents. But he still plays the guitar in two bands, Haunted Castle and Rats in the Walls.
“My future is in the family business,” he said. “Music is just for fun.”
The real estate market, too, is shifting as wealth evaporates. Ross Weinstein, a managing partner of the Union Square Mortgage Group, has worked with hundreds of Williamsburg apartment buyers in the past two years.
“A lot of the money came from family,” he said. “That piece, it’s gone for a lot of people.”
In the boom years, Mr. Weinstein said, 40 percent of the mortgage applications he reviewed for buyers in Williamsburg included down-payment money, from $50,000 to $300,000, from parents. About 20 percent of the applications listed investments that gave the young buyers $3,000 to $10,000 of monthly income.
But in the past two months, Mr. Weinstein said, he has handled two to three deals a week in which the parents cut back their down-payment help.
The number of sales in Williamsburg dropped nearly a quarter in the first three months of this year compared with the same period a year ago, according to HMS Associates, a Brooklyn appraisal firm. And in three recent cases, Mr. Weinstein said, owners sold their apartments in short sales — selling for less than the bank is owed, to avoid foreclosure — because they were no longer receiving parental help.
Mr. Weinstein has been advising two brothers in their late 20s who wanted to buy a $700,000 apartment with $250,000 from their parents. But their parents’ investment portfolio has lost so much value that they now can give only $50,000. Since the brothers make about $45,000 a year each, they are now shopping for a $500,000 apartment.
The parents still wish they could help, Mr. Weinstein said, but “right now, they’re in a situation in their life where they need to ensure their own security.”
It is an adjustment that many have to deal with. Eric Gross, 26, a construction worker, was going to buy, with help from his father, a $600,000 one-bedroom condo with city views at Northside Piers, a luxury building, he said.
But his father, who works in the auto industry, said he had to reduce his contribution. “He’s pulling back the lifeline,” Mr. Gross said.
So Mr. Gross is scaling back, shopping for a $300,000 apartment, said his real estate agent, Binnie Robinson of AptsandLofts.com.
It can be hard to see the signs of financial troubles in Williamsburg because residents are so loath to show that they had money in the first place. Robert Lanham, author of “The Hipster Handbook,” said in an interview that many newer residents tried to blend in with the area’s gritty history and dressed “half the time like they’re homeless people.”
But parental help was obvious in the intersection of residents with low-paying jobs and $3,000-a-month apartments.
“You can put two and two together, that they have money coming in from somewhere else,” Mr. Lanham said.
The culture of the area often mocks residents who depend on their families. Misha Calvert, 26, a writer who relied on her parents during her first year in the city, now has three roommates, works in freelance jobs and organizes parties to help keep her afloat while she writes plays and acts in films. There is a “giant stigma,” she said, for Williamsburg residents who are not financially independent.
“It takes the wind out of you if you’re not the independent, self-reliant artist you claim to be,” she said, “if you’re just daddy’s little girl.”
The cutbacks for the more privileged residents are a welcome change for locals who have struggled to support themselves without parental help.
Katie Deedy, 27, an artist, works two bartending jobs to shore up her designer wallpaper business. Gazing out from the bar at the patrons playing darts and sipping bloody marys during a Sunday shift at the Brooklyn Ale House, she described how refreshing it felt not being the only local resident trying to live on less.
“If I’m going to be completely honest, it does make me feel a little bit better,” she said. “It’s bringing a lot of Williamsburg back to reality.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/08/nyregion/08trustafarians.html
#29 yikes,
Why do pro athletes do real estate deals and open restaurants? Those biz seem to attract people who spent their youth getting smacked in the head a lot.
34.me@work says:
June 20, 2009 at 1:09 am
Hey, come visit me…. I have a speculum just for you.
What??? Look, Dr. Pottymouth, I don’t know what your damn problem is, but you’re one VERY sick puppy. The damn emergency room is the LAST place I’d want to go for any medical reason under the best of circumstances, but if you’re in the ER that would be a fate WORST than death. Undoubtedly, I’d hear your sick maniacal laughter in between the foul oaths coming from that dirty mouth of yours while some poor soul screams at the hands of your torture.
So no, I WILL NOT be visiting you for any reason. You scare me worst than spooky sas
Rally’s fate hinges on Fed, home sales
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090620/bs_nm/us_column_stocks_outlook_1
Everyone ready for another stock market rally? I love how the MSM just pitches themselves a slow hanger right down the middle of the plate.
So the next rally is contingent on (1) new and existing home sales data and (2) Fed leaving rates alone + Fed economic outlook.
Is there any doubt that the month to month numbers won’t show a pickup in sales?
Is there any doubt that the year over year number will be ignored?
Is there any doubt that the Fed won’t leave rates alone?
Dr. chicks who talk dirty….HOT!
43.Sastry says:
June 20, 2009 at 8:06 am
reinvestor101 #31:
[Re yikes’ home]:
… so you have to understand that your claim is suspect without some damn proof. Post the damn Hud 1 so I can confirm that you closed.
This is going to be soooo like O’s birth certificate, right?
Cute comments like these is precisely the type of thing that earns a spot on my enemies list.
Yikes has done nothing but moan about housing prices since he showed up here and then he claims “he came to Jesus” and sctually bought a house. THAT’S EXTREMELY SUSPECT. There are very few people who go from being pantywaist to a rocked ribbed man in one day, so yes, he has to back his claim up with some proof.
From the NY Times:
New Jersey Sites May Close
The Postal Service, whose finances have taken a beating as electronic communication has overtaken paper correspondence, has marked hundreds of post offices across the country for closing.
ostal Service officials, who say a final decision is months away, have declined to specify their locations of those post offices. But Jack Dougherty, president of the northern New Jersey local of the American Postal Workers Union, pointed to an internal Postal Service memo on the union’s Web site that lists branches that could be closed, including 31 in northern New Jersey.
“We are going out of business in a hurry,” Mr. Dougherty said.
As for price drops that are not happening, one only needs to look at the train line towns. Sellers there continue to refuse to lower prices more than a token amount.
Perfect example is a house on Longwood in Chatham, MLS#: 2591848
http://emailrpt.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?method=getData&sysid= 3889005&ptype=RES&report=res_media&pubid=266299&fromPublic=PUBLIC
This house is on the market 245 days with only a $22,100 price drop. If this house had been priced at $899K when it came on it would have sold around $850K. Now with spring selling pretty much over the sellers will be lucky to get $800K.
Here was an interesting commentary of NJ.com in response to a Chatham resident stating that agents were “knocking on his door offering to pay over market value” if he wants to sell.:
1444.1.1.1. send her down the block
by WickhamWoody, 6/14/09 17:03 ET
Re: O.K. for me too! by fatbill, 6/14/09
There are 8-10 homes on the market right now in Wickham Woods. I know, I live here too. My son was trying to buy in but too many of my neighbors who paid $500-700K for their house 10 years ago now want over a million to a million and a half. Their homes are all sitting on the market. Thats reality. My sons realtor told him these people can expect to sit with their homes for years the way things are going. The bottom line is if people need to sell and price it just under or at the assessed value they will get offers. If they price it much above the homes languish. while I would not call it a crash like chthmstvee does, its certainly a very soft market which favors buyers with patience. Those are the facts.
http://www.nj.com/forums/chatham/index.ssf?artid=8442
Evidently there is still a seller disconnect in Chatham. One lady at a FSBO told me that she will not take less than the price she paid in 2005 because “its Chatham and real estate always holds its price and you cant lose in Chatham.”
When will they come out of the ether?
#51 Shelley
You don’t expect them to give their house away do you? They will get their price no matter how many years it takes.
Grim:
regarding the GTG, may I suggest Octoberfest in Germania Park, in Dover, NJ. I believe that they will be open on Friday the 26th of June. Beer, german food and Ompah music. What more could one want?
#53, Considering that the houses were all assessed at fair market value and that many if not most appraisals in Chatham are coming back at under assessment, these people will be waiting a long time. I work for a lawyer and many of the deals are getting undone because people only have 20% or 25% to put down and the bank will not make the loan when the house does not appraise.
Alot of people have homes they have paid $500K and now want $1.5mil. Even if the house is assessed at $1mil. so they are not satisfied getting fair market, they put them out there and they sit. Its almost comical. There is a guy on Huron whose wife up and moved without him because he has been unable to sell his home for almost a year and a half. He had priced it $300K over assessment and now is $150K over assessment with no suckers to take it off his hands.
He will be lucky to get a million and will be sitting with this thing through the winter.
I dont call getting what something is worth giving it away. Anything in Chatham or Madison priced over a million is going to sit and sit and sit now that spring selling is over.
also, that Chatham assessment was done in late 2005 basically at the top of the market.
Look at Mendham, you had the same mentality tehre and now you have homes in that town with steep $100 to 300K discounts on $homes that were once $1.2 mil.
#50 – We are going out of business in a hurry
The breadth of companies affected by the downturn is very surprising. There were the ones we all suspected would get stung; builders & banks. I never thought the post office would get hammered though. Or that the newspapers would all go belly up at the same time. The latter two must have been surviving on cheap debt for years.
How many zombies was that debt covering? How many bodies killed by .com or the downturn in the early 90s or the re-urbanization of the US were hidden for years only to be dumped on us now, in aggregate?
Shelly [52]
FSBO lady will get her price. It might be in 2013 but she will get her price.
Perhaps the people in Chatham are less familiar with the concept of the time value of money. If she does get her price in 2013, she will declare herself the victor and pat herself on the back for sticking it out and getting her price.
She is likely the type of person who is out there buying Citibank stock based on Dick Bove’s recommendation that it will go to $12 p/share.
Meanwhile, it sounds like you are doing the right thing if you tell the Chatham sellers to Suck It.
The breadth of companies affected by the downturn is very surprising. There were the ones we all suspected would get stung; builders & banks. I never thought the post office would get hammered though. Or that the newspapers would all go belly up at the same time. The latter two must have been surviving on cheap debt for years.
The handwriting was on the wall for a decade. This is unrelated to, however, accelerated by, the downturn. The cause, in a word: Internet. I am not surprised by the print news and post office hurt.
School choice will be a key issue in the race for governor:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/19/nyregion/19choice.html?_r=1
They forgot to mention one minor detail: There are a set of RR tracks in front of the house and another set behind the house. But hey, we’re prestigous and they’re not making any more land and we’re in proximity to NYC and you better buy now or be priced out forever.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Glen-Rock_NJ_07452_1109687744
gary,
A 4br/2ba in Glen Rock with an inground pool? That place would have been pushing close to 6 a few years back.
And when I say a “set” of tracks in front and back, I mean, two RR tracks in front and two in the back. That’s four trains coming and going. I’ll give you 200K to take the house off your hands.
grim,
I’m starting to see more and more “4” handles in the.. ahem… haughty areas. I can’t wait to see what the next 12 to 18 months bring.
“ER that would be a fate WORST than death”
i might have to agree with you reinvestor101.
i too have a major fear of any american medical facility, with the amount of mistakes they make and the idiot doctors, your better off doing a rain dance to hope you get better.
doctors only talents is that they can do well in a standardized tests.
SAS
“The handwriting was on the wall for a decade. This is unrelated to, however, accelerated by, the downturn. The cause, in a word: Internet. I am not surprised by the print news and post office hurt.”
Exactly. Increased internet usage is the main problem the post office and print newspapers are having problems. The same thing applies to yellow pages advertising and a host of other stuff. I don’t even keep one of those thick phone books around anymore, I look up whatever I need on the internet.
I’m in a business where we used to use the postal service and overnight services extensively to deliver documents. That’s been replaced by e-mailed PDF’s which has cut our postage/delivery costs dramatically. Since we combine internet usage with with paperless storage and dual monitors our paper, toner and space costs have been reduced as well. The paperless setup along with the internet allows me to have my staff work from home, hence eliminating the need for work space.
Increased use of the internet will cause a number of casualties. Ultimately, those impacted by the internet will be Fedex, paper manufacturers, landlords, Verizon and a host of others tied to the “old world” way of doing things.
sas says:
June 20, 2009 at 11:20 am
“ER that would be a fate WORST than death”
i might have to agree with you reinvestor101.
i too have a major fear of any american medical facility, with the amount of mistakes they make and the idiot doctors, your better off doing a rain dance to hope you get better.
doctors only talents is that they can do well in a standardized tests.
SAS
The ER is the absolute last place you want to be. Last year for the first time I came down with strep throat and had to go the the my local ER. I hadn’t been to a ER in some time, so I’m assuming that it be like it was when I was a kid. How wrong I was. You can literally die up in there waiting to get seen because of everyone else in there using it as a primary care facility. It was the most horrible experience I’ve ever had and it really brought to the forefront the financial distress the hospital system in under. I have insurance, so they got paid for seeing me, but no institution can survive providing services to a bunch of people who can’t pay. Moreover, those folks are getting horrible services. Something definitely needs to be done about this situation. I can’t say that I’m familiar with all of the nuances of the current debate on health care, but I know I’m paying already for the folks without insurance.
#59 & #66 – That was kind of my point. Print news and the post office absolutely should have died off, but years ago. I know I was expecting it in the 90s and then it just didn’t happen. Or it did, but was hidden by the cheap debt. Cheap debt that fueled mass credit card mailers, advertising space and etc.
I just wondering aloud what other zombies the cheap debt hid.
On a side note. How many people are in the postal employee pension fund, is it funded fully, can the P/O continue to fund it if their traffic is cut back 40 – 60%?
toshiro_mifune says:
June 20, 2009 at 12:06 pm
#59 & #66 – That was kind of my point. Print news and the post office absolutely should have died off, but years ago. I know I was expecting it in the 90s and then it just didn’t happen. Or it did, but was hidden by the cheap debt. Cheap debt that fueled mass credit card mailers, advertising space and etc.
I just wondering aloud what other zombies the cheap debt hid.
Leverage and the Tribune company definitely go hand in hand considering they levered up to take the company private only a few years ago; a decidedly non-productive use of debt in light of the economic tumult we’ve encountered here of late.
I think someone may have mentioned that internet usage is actually going to accelerate as everyone seeks to cut costs given the downturn, so any business tied to the “pre-internet” way of doing things will not survive. To the extent any such company is excessively leveraged, I’d agree that we’re going to find out about it fairly quickly.
As to the postal service pension plan, IMHO the taxpayer is going to be stuck funding it along with a host of other stuff.
re: postal service.
I do all my bills electronically, the only thing I get is junk mail, catalogs and letters from my wife’s 96 year old grandma.
Granny is learning how to email now, so pretty soon it will only be junk mail. Can I ask the postal service to stop deliveries permanently?
As an aside….what’s with the f-ing weather….AGAIN?
If you want green shoots, you need rain. New Jersey is saved!
Nudge again…..
WSJ
THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR
JUNE 20, 2009
Franklin D. Roosevelt sent Wall Street to the torture rack. Barack Obama is sending Wall Street to the psychology lab.
A key component of President Obama’s financial-reform package is its proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency, which would apply findings from the science of human behavior to ensure “transparency, simplicity, fairness, and access” for borrowers, savers and other financial consumers.
That could make it a lot harder for a part-time worker to end up with an exploding mortgage that eats all her take-home pay. It might even mean that regulators will finally pay attention to the visual presentation of financial data — color, graphics and other factors that exert powerful sway over your decisions.
The proposal is an outgrowth of “Nudge,” the brilliant book published last year by two University of Chicago scholars, economist Richard H. Thaler and law professor Cass R. Sunstein. A longtime friend of President Obama, Prof. Sunstein has been nominated to head the White House’s Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, a job often described as “the regulation czar.”
In my view, a behavioral approach is decades overdue. Financial regulations always have been written mainly by lawyers and legislators — then promptly shot full of holes by promoters who understand how real human beings think and behave.
Lawyers think that the mere disclosure of risks and conflicts of interest provides the information that investors or consumers need. That is a fantasy. Faced with 47 pages’ worth of “Risk Factors,” investors come away with a warm glow of safety; risks that seem hard to understand appear unlikely to happen, and people who provide you with lots of detail seem likely to be honest.
To inform anyone, information has to be accessible. The central idea in “Nudge” is what Profs. Thaler and Sunstein call “choice architecture” — the context, format and framing of how decisions are presented to consumers. You will eat more nuts from a big bowl than from a small bowl. You will choose surgery if you are told it offers a 90% chance of survival; you will reject it if you are told there is a 10% chance it will kill you. The same people who would skip investing in a 401(k) if they had to “opt in” to the plan will participate if they have to “opt out” in order to skip it.
Prof. Sunstein, who is awaiting Senate confirmation in his post, declined to be interviewed. Cautioning that he can’t speak for the Obama administration or Prof. Sunstein, Prof. Thaler discussed the new regulatory model. “The standard beer can is 12 ounces,” he said. “That makes it pretty easy to compare beer prices. So now consider mortgages. It’s not that you regulate the interest rates or the fees. But one way to make shopping easier is to make comparing the products simpler.”
Thus, suggested Prof. Thaler, every bank or mortgage broker would have to offer two “safe-harbor” products with “standard terms that are easy to understand”: a 30-year fixed mortgage with no points or prepayment penalties, and a five-year adjustable-rate mortgage. The market would set the interest rates. “By having these generic, simple mortgages,” said Prof. Thaler, “you make everything else comparable.”
Banks and mortgage brokers would remain free to offer more complex kinds of loans. However, added Prof. Thaler, “If the broker sells you a teaser-rate mortgage that you can’t possibly afford once it resets, then as Ricky Ricardo used to say, he’s got some ‘splainin’ to do” — including greater potential penalties from regulators. Mutual funds, 401(k)s and brokerage accounts wouldn’t be regulated by the new agency but might well be influenced by its rules.
The proposal is about making regulation intelligent, not intrusive, said Eric Johnson, an expert on decision-making who teaches at Columbia Business School. “If you really do want a complicated, high-cost, high-risk mutual fund, you’ll still be able to get it. But making sure that at least one option is not a disaster gives people an anchor.”
Regulation that recognizes the limits of human rationality is an idea whose time has come. Like any good psychology lab, the proposed new agency will gather reams of data on how real people actually behave and adjust its rules accordingly, in real time. Of course, the financial industry will adjust its own behavior, trying to outsmart the new rules as fast as they are printed. But the war between the regulators and the regulated might finally be based on a realistic view of human nature, not fantasy.
Also, yesterday at Downtown in Red Bank, I used one of the urinals with the picture of the fly in it. Very little spillage in that bathroom….
Oh, Hey….ReTard,
you wrote “You can literally die up in there waiting to get seen…”
They must have received my memo about you… how the f.uck did you get out alive?
Rats! Maybe next time.
sl
HE: is this you?
Re: hudson tea washington st. #4R 3br SHORT SALE #27
Anonymous The only way to build wealth is through real estate ownership. I bought in 2007 and I have lost 17%, virtually my entire down payment. but hey in a few years I will start cutting into the principal. I have absolutely no reason to think things will get better over the next three years, and my costs per month are higher than renting a similar unit, even with a deduction(I ran the calulations).
I just sit on my couch in my snuggie with a nice glass of pinot noir and relax. I know that I have made the right decision, and I will just rent my place out for a loss every month because I have made the right decision. I have made the right decision.
I am an important person, I will be successful, and darnit, people like me.
Shelley, re: Chatham
By any measure real estate asking prices in Chatham ought to be moving down further.
I suspect they are not because it is a destination town, i.e. most people don’t move there temporarily with the idea that in five years they can afford another town. If one is not forced to sell (relo, estate, etc) and the downside is actually living in your 4/4 Colonial unless some yahoo comes along and hits your crazy ask (see 40 Chandler) you’ll hold the price. Bottom line is many of the sellers do not need to sell and are content staying where they are.
For the others you are seeing serious discounting activity. Newer high end houses ($2m+ orginally in Rolling Hills), estates (123 Van Houton), anything with a marginal yard or location, and houses people aren’t content with (the Kings Road conversation from the other day) are moving one well beneath assess.
Before anyone throws rotten fruits and vegetables I am a real estate bear, just trying to explain the mentality of something that appears irrational.
Chi [75]
How much do you imagine they sunk into the the renovation of The Downtown? Turned out pretty nice, food is much better than before IMO.
looks like Steve Jobs of Appl will be circling the drain pretty soon.
SAS
#36 Everything else is just noise.
Foolish.
sas #80
looks like Steve Jobs of Appl will be circling the drain pretty soon.
Or, he may come out strongly and get into health-care market with a new line of products “i-live(r)”.
I am not an Apple fan, but there is something aesthetic about his designs — the NeXT Cube in late 80’s had an optical R/W drive and a perfect 1x1x1 dimension and ran a great OS, when people were proud about their 3 1/4 floppies and were thinking that multitasking meant that one can print while one is writing in WordStar.
Jobs must also be doing something right with the company too. Dell famously proclaimed in late ’90s that Apple should liquidate and give money to shareholders. Now, Apple has about 5x market cap of Dell.
S
SAS
What do you think. Is this foreign agitation or are internal sects really trying to spark revolution?
A young Iranian woman was apparently shot about a kilometer away from the protests by the Basij. The video of her (very graphic) is all over the web… She was apparently not involved in the protest.
Prices are up by 10%. Where’s the housing recession???
“In Monmouth County, prices are down 11 percent, but in Matawan, they are up by 10 percent.”
In Hudson County, where sales prices are down by 21 percent from last year, they have fallen only 12 percent in Hoboken.
In Union County, prices are down by 13 percent over all but have dipped 9 percent in Summit.
In Middlesex, prices are down 21 percent, but in Metuchen they have dipped only 11 percent.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/21/realestate/21njzo.html
chifi,
You sob! All your DM posts finally caused me to pick up a DM cd yesterday.
I just can’t get enough.
[34] me
“I have a speculum just for you”
ROFLMAO!
and make sure you don’t warm it up.
Here is some original thinking.
To fight deflation, abolish cash. Could Japan make reality of ‘science fiction’?
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6531299.ece?print=yes&randnum=1245393130032
46#, reinverstor,
according to my black box, this lady is apparently suffering delusionally se*xuall disorder. here are my suggestions:
1) see a psychologist;
2) change her work schedule to day tme;
3) have a john experience;
4) visit LA to see sunset blvd career is a better fit;
5) all of above
>What??? Look, Dr. Pottymouth, I don’t know what your damn problem is,
5#, frank, you are voilating “don’t ask don’t tell” policy.
>frank says:
June 19, 2009 at 5:09 pm
#4,
How’s your SRS doing these days?? Kind of rained out??
Chi,
Nope. But I like it
chicagofinance says:
June 20, 2009 at 2:42 pm
cf – worth mentioning the latest comp at Hudson Tea Building
1500 Washington St, Apt 10V, Hoboken
Sold on August 18, 2006, for $463,990
Sold on April 21, 2009, for $591,400
27% increase
I’m not suggesting a broad trend in rising prices in Hoboken. Just pointing out that the city has experienced a very mild real estate downturn despite a dramatic spike in prices and a surge of new supply.
I look forward to hearing from njrereport regulars why we should dismiss the comp detailed above.
Perhaps 10V had a large renovation. Or maybe the seller offered incentives. Surely there must be a reason why we should ignore the latest Hudson Tea comp.
If you dont like your ER service now. You will love you ER service under Obama care. Going to get better when your Doc’s simply dont give a F….
reinvestor – everyone knows you are one of grim’s friends, sent here to play the role of bagholding loser. you do it well, whoever you are. you may have a future in acting.
75.chicagofinance says:
June 20, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Also, yesterday at Downtown in Red Bank, I used one of the urinals with the picture of the fly in it. Very little spillage in that bathroom….
This is an example of something we DON’T want to know. Chi, you ought to be ashamed of yourself
John says:
June 19, 2009 at 10:33 am
Sorry that the bollywood crowd don’t get jokes. Maybe I buy you lunch at Curry in a Hurry to make up for it.
i know he’s trying to be funny, but TAKE HIM UP ON THIS. Curry in a Hurry (28th and lex?) is some of the best and cheapest indian food i’ve had in the country. i lived with 2 blocks of this spot and would eat it twice a week. this probably went on for 2 years.
76.still_looking says:
June 20, 2009 at 2:30 pm
Oh, Hey….ReTard,
you wrote “You can literally die up in there waiting to get seen…”
They must have received my memo about you… how the f.uck did you get out alive?
Rats! Maybe next time
You wish. I heard your maniacal laughter and choked everyone on heel dust getting my ass out of there. I escaped and I’m NEVER coming back.
Let me tell you something, you and the damn grasshoppers (zeiba and Pat) will NEVER succeed at “getting” me, no matter how much you dirtbags try.
james [94]
The friend of mine got into an ER in the UK – the country of the 100% government-run health care, with the broken arm. He did not get an MRI; however, X-rays had been done in 1 hr, he saw an orthopedic surgeon in another hour and was back in the hotel room in another 2 hrs. His arm healed perfectly well, and he didn’t pay anything for the service. My experiences with ER with non-critical trauma over here had generally been worse – more time and more expense.
From whatever data I have seen, the ER outcomes for the people with strokes, heart attacks, etc. in Europe are not worse than here. If you have data showing the opposite, please share it.
88.bi says:
June 20, 2009 at 7:03 pm
46#, reinverstor,
according to my black box, this lady is apparently suffering delusionally se*xuall disorder. here are my suggestions:
1) see a psychologist;
2) change her work schedule to day tme;
3) have a john experience;
4) visit LA to see sunset blvd career is a better fit;
5) all of above
Yeah, Dr. Pottymouth is one VERY sick lady and I’ll co-sign on ALL of the above suggestions bi. Great analysis of her sick little mind. She is VERY scary and I don’t know why they’d unleash anyone like her on poor unsuspecting people in the damn ER.
Somebody ought to have their ass fired for hiring her.
95.yikes says:
June 20, 2009 at 7:52 pm
reinvestor – everyone knows you are one of grim’s friends, sent here to play the role of bagholding loser. you do it well, whoever you are. you may have a future in acting.
Stop trying to obfuscate matters and post the damn HUD 1. You know good and damn well you lied about buying a house.
Scaredy cat.
#99,
I have data that shows that European get more strokes when they see their tax bill. They end up paying more than 50% of their income for their crappy health care. Have you see a European with good teeth lately??
Curry in a hurry was our fav resturant for years when we lived in the city and spent most of our young married life broke…Masala Dosa rules!! we lived right by Curry in a Hurry too and that was back in the early 80’s when crack was king and NYC had over 3000 homocides per year …remember the homeless hotels…oh gawd that one on 28TH and Lex was the worst…was it called “The George Washington”?? Remember “wilding”? My daughter was in the city last weekend and was miffed at the craziness of the Puerto Rican Day parade…it was one of the classic “let me tell YOU about craziness” moments…
99#, cobbler, you can run thousands of anecdotes like this in UK, Japan, Canada and other developed countries. but don’t forget one big difference bewteen US and any of those countries: they don’t have such a high percentage of illegal immigrants and privileged minority groups as us. If the money is only from your pocket, i am 100% humanitarian. in current unfortunate political environoment, sadly republians and other universal healthcase opponents cannot say it in an explicit manner.
Frank, how badly were you picked on in high school?
do you have a revenge kill list taped to the wall near your desk?
i feel bad for your parents. i’d add friends, but you obviously dont have any.
“Is this foreign agitation or are internal sects really trying to spark revolution?”
its a little of both.
we have the potential for a god damn powder keg, and we should let Iran make their own bed. Popular to popular belief, they have (for the most part) played by the rules of engagement. Can’t say that about the USA or Israel.
But, keep in mind, when all the eyes are looking left, you best be looking right. Don’t forget about Paki, and why is ISI running ____ rings out of India.
SAS
you know, i know i will get laughed at for this statement, so have at it….
but, the more i think about, i think the real roots of the RE bubble & dot com bust might stem from the push of NATO to the east back i think during Reagen or was it early Clinton.
laugh away, but maybe if I attend the GTG, i will elaborate.
SAS
i just hope the GTG, isn’t in BFE
:)
SAS
85.safeashouses says:
June 20, 2009 at 5:21 pm
chifi, You sob! All your DM posts finally caused me to pick up a DM cd yesterday. I just can’t get enough.
bairen: with the handle “safeashouses” you aren’t a DM fan?
BTW – I saw Richie slag-off on SOTU a couple of weeks ago. Anyway, for both Richie and you, there are also 4 more tracks that were not even included on the album. It is collectively the best batch of B-sides since Violator.
The Sun and The Moon and The Stars (better Gore track than Jezebel).
Ghost – simplying fcuking good
Oh Well – Richie complained about no up tempo tracks….Booya
Light – a little limp-wristed, but has great lyrics.
Check them out on You Tube
96.reinvestor101 says:
June 20, 2009 at 8:01 pm
75.chicagofinance says:
June 20, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Also, yesterday at Downtown in Red Bank, I used one of the urinals with the picture of the fly in it. Very little spillage in that bathroom….
This is an example of something we DON’T want to know. Chi, you ought to be ashamed of yourself
RE: it is an example from “Nudge”
79.JBJB says:
June 20, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Chi [75] How much do you imagine they sunk into the the renovation of The Downtown? Turned out pretty nice, food is much better than before IMO.
JBJB: nice place…only complaint is the noise off Front Street which absolutely blasts through the place…..has a really good lunch specials and the food is better than I would have expected….
[106] sas
“laugh away, but maybe if I attend the GTG, i will elaborate.”
You’re gonna have to elaborate, cuz you have totally lost me with that one.
Nom 112 I thought it was just me. Yes will have to hear that one in person.
91.lurkerd says:
June 20, 2009 at 7:29 pm
chicagofinance says:
June 20, 2009 at 2:42 pm
cf – worth mentioning the latest comp at Hudson Tea Building
1500 Washington St, Apt 10V, Hoboken
Sold on August 18, 2006, for $463,990
Sold on April 21, 2009, for $591,400
27% increase
I’m not suggesting a broad trend in rising prices in Hoboken. Just pointing out that the city has experienced a very mild real estate downturn despite a dramatic spike in prices and a surge of new supply.
lurk: at a minimum, throw in an extra $35K for a parking space; and of course renovations…let’s see
let me keep digging…..
here is a listing for $517,000
http://www.trulia.com/property/1068777035-1500-Washington-St-10V-Hoboken-NJ-07030
lurk: must have been a typo, because here is the listing and it is only for $517K
http://www.libertyrealestate.com/public/listingSingle.do?listing.listingID=818057
I would say the renov were in the original 2006 sale price.
Although, it appears that the seller is offering to pay the maintenance charges on the parking spot for 1 year. I forget how much that would be…maybe it is $1000-$2000.
[113] mike
Well, I plan to try to make this GTG unless it is somewhere incredibly remote. SAS can explain it then, and maybe he can also tell me if soviet boomers can get into Cape Cod Bay, which was the last place I saw a P-3 Orion doing maneuvers.
Honestly, $491,400 seems more likely, which is really $463,990 + $35-40K parking + $1-2K parking fee + 6% com?
Anything else?
#108 chifi
I picked up DM the Best of Volume 1 and U2 Greatest Hits 1980-1990.
Do I need a disclaimer for this?
Green shoots in Livingston?
Listed for 10% less than 2005 sales price (according to trulia). the house doubled in price from 02 to 05. Do not know if there was any renovations done during that period.
http://www.trulia.com/property/1079679484-30-Glendale-Ave-Livingston-NJ-07039
121#, nothing against livingston. but i would go a little west to east hanover and whippany area where tax is lower and you will get more space for your money.
Clot, if the USA gets destroyed by Egypt, is Bradley fired? is his job at least in jeopardy?
#122 bi,
We also like East Hanover, but we want a school with all day Kindergarten. EH is half day. We just started looking at Essex and other parts of Morris. Most of Union county is half day.
Don’t forget there are only 180 school days in NJ, kindergarten is only 1 year, and the kid will be home sick for at least 10 days out of 180, anyway – so do you really want to make an important decision based on full vs. half day K? Even if you are looking at a rental, making multiple moves is such a pain…
“You’re gonna have to elaborate, cuz you have totally lost me with that one.”
well nompound, i don’t mean directly, more dotted line sort-a-speak. like a blowback or a cause & effect.
I’ve talked this topic over with a dear fellow up in Boston, and we are trying to draw a conclusion. Its more theoretical.
I might not make sense, i will articulate myself more in the next few days.
if i forget, give me reminders.
SAS
during Reagen years, i was working in military hardware. we sold to NATO.
what a crock a shlt that was,,, and that Reagan…what a weirdo he was. remember blokes, he was an actor, and thats about it.
and Jiimmy Carter? how the heck did that naive sucker get elected? well, he was a very polite person. In 79, got invited to a dinner and shook his hand, and we talked for about 10 minutes.
ok, I’m babbling. sorry grim.
SAS
“In 79, got invited to a dinner and shook his hand”
right after “cyclone” out in mtns of afgan.
ok, enough said.
SAS
#124 – Whippany has an after-school program for kindergarteners, one that goes until 3:05 and followed by another one that goes until 6. East Hanover might have the same thing. Another option is to send your child to Catholic school for a year and then switch to public school for first grade. I agree with Cobbler… don’t make such a big decision based on kindergarten!
yeah, this is really going to help …
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/pizza-hut-changes-its-name.aspx?GT1=33009
Sorry Grim, will miss this GTG. In Jamaica for a week, having blast. :-)
Unemployment of 10% Spreads, Risking U.S. Recovery (Update1): “More than one-quarter of American states now have unemployment rates higher than 10 percent, and all but two saw a further job-market deterioration in May.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azM2RehwDv_c
note that the 10% is U3 U6 = 1.77 U3 so 1/4 of states are at about 17% unemployment
safe [85] and tosh,
Glad to see some folks still purchase the artists material. (Compact Discs).
Also glad that those who are OK with Copyright Infringement didn’t feel the need to post some self-serving BS about how they only download big name artists but support smaller up and coming artists by purchasing their work, or, download to listen and if you like, then buy. Lots of people SAY they do this, about 2% actually follow through.
Its OK though, the optical media industry will simply declare themselves as banks and get a government bailout. After all, the recorded media industry employs 1000s of people, many of whom have pensions, so, too big to fail.
Sorry to do this but I have a “recession, WHAT recession post” to make.
Went to the Woodbridge Mall yesterday late afternoon/early evening. Total F**king Mob Scene! Started at JC Penney to get some socks. I left after 3 minutes. Too many people, racks were ravaged, everything picked through. For those of you familiar with Woodbridge (sorry if you are) the Fortunoff parking lot is right next to JCP. Fortunoff is now closed for business but its lot was full with all the JCP shoppers.
I guess being indoors at the mall was preferable to being indoors in your house with all the rain we have been having. And people weren’t just looking for entertaiment, they were buying. Everyone had bags and the lines at the registers were very long.
At this point, my errand became more an investigation. I left JCP and headed through the mall over to Lord & Taylor which is the closest Woodbridge comes to “high end” merch. The mall was jammed. Lots of people, lots of buying. Brookstone was the only store that was noticeably not busy. But the “photo on crap” kiosk had lots of activity. Congrats to all the Dads getting a photo of little Parvati on an apron this Father’s Day.
Once in Lord & Taylor, it was like I found heaven. Much quieter, no mob scene. Mind you, JCP has those loud “60% OFF” signs everywhere while L&T has more 25% off small signs with the occasional 40% of sign and higher priced merch to begin with. I paid 10% more for my socks but it was worth it to avoid the mass hysteria at JCP.
What’s the moral of this story? I don’t know, just posting my observations. I guess one could conclude that people are still buying stuff if its cheap and stores like JCP that cater to the bargain hunting crowd will continue to make money on volume, even if their margins stink.
Saw similar things in the mall. Any place with items at $10 or less was doing brisk business. Woodbridge doesn’t have a lot of high end places but the few I saw were not too busy.
Anyone at the Short Hills Mall this weekend? That might be more interesting.
[134]
Malls are always busy over rainy weekends. We had the unfortunate need to stop at the Monmouth Mall yesterday and it was indeed crowded.
“Unemployment of 10% Spreads, Risking U.S. Recovery”
Ummm, what recovery?
Yikes…
Curry in a Hurry (28th and lex?)
Haven’t been to NYC much, but will do…
S
Where is the GTG? We are moving on Friday, 26th, so chances are very low as is. However, if it near by, I will try my best.
S
Re 134,
Yeah was in that Newport Mall for a few minutes yesterday. Very crowded in Macys but the 3/4’s of the store seemed to be 50% off. I guess the retailers need to dump inventory and boost sales before the end of the quarter.
Regarding malls: if people had (ACTUAL) 50% off real estate sales with credit cards to fund the purchases, how much volume would you see….
Happy Father’s Day to all. May you each get the big piece of chicken today.
Malls…I’ve actually found better deals on much higher quality merchandise by shopping at Lord and taylors with 20% off or some such deal. Everyone is shopping at Marshalls/kohls/tj Maxx thinking they are saving $$ but if you shop the dept stores the selection is better the prices are commensurate and you don’t see your same outfit on some other sapp which screams “I bought this at marshalls”
I wouldn’t consider this house at 424,900, but knock 2k off and things are so different.
http://www.trulia.com/property/1059970589-82-Mount-Bethel-Rd-Warren-NJ-07059
happy fathers day
SAS
Happy fathers day
No takers in Short Hills at 2,250,000, so lets drop the price 1k to 2,249,000.
http://www.trulia.com/property/1053689325-64-Jefferson-Ave-Short-Hills-NJ-07078
Laurie (102)
Your recollections of “old New York” fall into the genre of our parents’ 10-mile walks to school, uphill both ways..
NYC homicides in the 80’s never topped 2,000 with an average around 1,700. The only years that topped 2,000 were 1990 and 1991. The peak year was 1990 at 2,245; unless you dealt crack, the rate for your demographic was probably only marginally higher than it is today.
Even at it’s absolute worst in 1990, NYC’s murder RATE has never begun to approach that of Baltimore, Detroit, DC, Philadelphia or New Orleans. Over the past five years, Baltimore’s murder rate is approximately 830% of NYC’s rate. The rough raw numbers in recent years:
Baltimore: 600,000 people, 300 murders
NYC: 8,300,000 people, 500 murders
Gotham locals and the MSM have always obsessed about NYC crime; statistically speaking, it’s really just a bunch of navel gazing..
As for Curry Hill, there are far better options these days than Curry in a Hurry IMHO. Tiffin Wallah’s lunch is first in my book for food, hospitality and price but you’ll have to do without meat…
I loath snobs.
“you don’t see your same outfit on some other sapp which screams “I bought this at marshalls””
‘loathe’ -whatever.
Re : Question about how Jimmy Carter got elected….
He got elected because the Republicans made such a mess of things between Nixon, Agnew, Mitchell, Ehrlichman, Ford, et al.
Sort of like the way O’bama got elected after Bush II ran the car into the ditch.
Speaking of Mall Traffic….
My wife and daughter went to Monmouth Mall yesterday (I guess for a last minute Father’s Day gift). They said there was plenty of traffic, but not many people were carrying packages. A lot of them were just “getting out of the rain”. That’s the reason Red Bank’s shops will never be able to compete with the malls.
Wife drove thru downtown Red Bank to get to Monmouth Mall. They played “Broad Street Bingo” where you count the vacant store-fronts on the main drag. If you get 3 in a row or any 2 diagonal, you call out Bingo !
US sells it’s gold reserves for cash.
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/us_to_trade_gold_reserves_for?utm_source=videoembe%20%20d
Hello to all and happy Father’s day. I posted here about a week ago asking for opinions about River Edge. It appears that most feel its a nice area, but taxes are high. I am about to make an offer on a home there – and wondered if anyone else has any opinions about River Edge – the schools, the community, etc. I know its not as nice as Ridgewood and Glen Rock,but I can afford a much nicer home in River Edge.
Thanks again to all,
Barry
BB Sure you are comfortable with those taxes. They will get much worse in the coming years. Nice town from what I know. Bid low get your price or wait the prices are going down as surely as taxes are going up. Would advise to wait 6-12 months if you can. Everyone’s situation is different , good luck!
By the way happy Fathers Day guys.
Seneca #134,
I end up at Woodbridge and Bridgewater quite a bit (not Menlo, but that’s another story). Not once since this ‘recession’ started have I been to Woodbridge and noticed anything resembling a reduction in crowds or lines. Bridgewater, OTOH – whole other story.
re #153 – Barry Benson our resident River Edge expert is poster “3B”, he can answer any question you may have about the town.
River Edge’s train service is not as good as the Ridgewood line although they have improved it by adding weekend service back in 2007.
River Edge does flood, you need to be careful to stay away from properties near the river. The last flood in April of 2007 destroyed dozens of homes near the river.
chifi #77-
that was kannekt right?
i wrote it a few weeks back
:)
don’t you go calling it pizza hut anymore!
now, it’s simply THE HUT.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/pizza-hut-changes-its-name.aspx?GT1=33009
like jabba.
I am a real father but a lot of people would say I am a real mother as well! ;)
drunk at noon on father’s day!
sorry for the double post.
Yikes good for you!
Gary it would seem Yikes is ahead of us today.
I don’t know about most of you, but I don’t consider a drop in prices an “ill wind.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2d2a2006-5d04-11de-9d42-00144feabdc0.html
I still think my cash-for-cows idea is a much better way to spur the economy, but this farmer has the right idea.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090621/ap_on_re_us/us_burpless_cows
“P-3 Orion”
thats a great plane by Lockheed, flew in those several times. Its a pretty smooth ride. But, if you are like me, i like to feel the bumps, then I really feel like I am flying.
What you saw most likely a drill or a joy ride:) I wouldn’t worry about a soviet sub.
i like the B1-bomber.
SAS
Just had an agent I was working with a few years back and haven’t had contact with in 2 years call me yesterday. She was all “Hey, there’s some really great prices now and people are willing to negotiate!”
No and no. People are willing to go down 25K on the house that’s overpriced by 125k. Also, when DOM are in the hundreds, tells me that they are not so willing to negotiate. They are getting desperate, pulling up the dead files and calling.
I see no point in a housing search at this point with current listing and DOM averages. People want to move up and it just isn’t going to happen, not on my dime.
“jamaica”
i love jamaica. i ain’t rasta, but I dig
cold beer – joint:) just don’t buy on a beach, they tie up trash bags and sell them to knucklehead americans & euros.
i have a little watering hole in Kingston.
quiz:
know the what the 3 colors of the flag represent?
:P
SAS
BB – 153
Think I saw a 3 br 1 bath cape with taxes at 20k in River Edge. Freaking insane.
SAS
black for the people, yellow for the sun, green for the land
SAS
perhaps i should clarify lest someone mistake what i meant,
black for the people ( as in their burdens), yellow for the sun, green for the land
kettle1,
correct
SAS
Oil price surge has raised eyebrows because it comes at a time when economies around the globe remain weak. In the United States, oil supplies are at two-decade highs while demand is at a 10-year low.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/16/news/derivatives.oil.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009061710
speaking of Jamaica….
here is a little tip, do go cliff diving. no matter how safe someone tells you it is….
unless of course you either want a bruised face, or a broken neck…
stick to the sun, clear blue water, cold beer & joints.
and get the blue coffee, its has a great flavor.
and get a punch cigar.
SAS
oopps, i meant..
“here is a little tip, DO NOT go cliff diving”
i really should proofread my posts. I’m a little more sane and articulate than my posts show. well, for the most part… wink….wink….
he he
SAS
Not to worry SAS we got the gist.
I thought people on this board were sane enough to KNOW not to jump off of a cliff! Or maybe, not so much?!
yome 172,
not an oil expert, but it would appear hedgies and the like are moving into oil in expectations of a recovery. demand for paper oil can drive up the price as much as consumption demand can. It appears that the $150 peak last year was possibly due in significant part to JPM playing the paper game
wherever clot is, the guy must be trashed and over the moon that the usa beat egypt 3-0 and brazil beat italy 3-0 and that means the usa is going to the semis against spain
great day to be a soccer fan
From the UK:
Goldman to make record bonus payout
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jun/21/goldman-sachs-bonus-payments
“Staff at Goldman Sachs staff can look forward to the biggest bonus payouts in the firm’s 140-year history after a spectacular first half of the year, sparking concern that the big investment banks which survived the credit crunch will derail financial regulation reforms.
Staff in London were briefed last week on the banking and securities company’s prospects and told they could look forward to bumper bonuses if, as predicted, it completed its most profitable year ever. Figures next month detailing the firm’s second-quarter earnings are expected to show a further jump in profits. Warren Buffett, who bought $5bn of the company’s shares in January, has already made a $1bn gain on his investment.”
#168 Gerry Adams:
This one has an annual tax bill of 12K
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2927063&id=999999
Happy Father’s Day everyone. The Gator Family spent theirs at the Museum of Natural History watching Dan Zanes perform a free concert in the Ocean Hall under the giant whale. I hope everyone had a fabulous day.
Thanks to all with thoughts on River Edge. Hmmm, again – taxes seem to be a big issue with this town. I am looking at a 400,000 home with 8600 in taxes. However, the same home in a lower tax nice area would be at least $50,000 more. I’d love to wait to buy, but I have two sons and live in a two bedroom apartment – and I want to get my son into the school before he starts 1st grade in Sept. Thanks to all again – any other thoughts on River Edge (good or not good) please let me know.
– Barry
Barbara – Are you still keeping your eye on Montclair? Some sellers are lowering their prices. The house across the street from us sold for 100k under original ask after 8+ months on the market.
re#173 SaS – Cumon already, back in my college days did the whole cliff diving on spring Break at Rick’s cafe in Negril for a whole week, got so good at it the tourists were paying me $5 bucks to jump instead of the local kids!
re #177 kettle1 – As much as 99 percent of the market for U.S. premium crude oil is dominated by big financial firms, hedge, pension and index funds. Last years run up was due to the Enron loophole which was then closed by Congress in the Farm Bill. FYI, George W. Bush vetoed the bill, but was overridden by both the House and Senate, and on June 18, 2008 the bill was enacted into law.
We should not let Dubai and London control the price of crude on the open markets. Obama plans further regulation although his latest additional to the CFTC leaves much to be desired.
“re#173 SaS – Cumon already, back in my college days did the whole cliff diving on spring Break at Rick’s cafe in Negril for a whole week, got so good at it the tourists were paying me $5 bucks to jump instead of the local kids!”
ok, don’t listein me.
SAS
http://www.weichert.com/22592933/?src=Trulia&seg=NJ&GCID=C10566x221&keyword=East+Brunswick
Is there a place in New Jersey where taxes are not an issue. This house is listed for $375,000 and the taxes are $11,443 in East Brunswick.
kettle1,
u catch that 60 minutes piece on mexico tonight? pure bs & propaganda.
that cooper, told spin artist.
SAS
“Is there a place in New Jersey where taxes are not an issue”
the graveyards?
SAS
SAS 188
a few minutes, and yes 100% propaganda.
Just another revenue source for our bankrupt government;
New Jersey bill aims to ban driver’s use of GPS while driving.
http://www.autoblog.com/2009/06/21/new-jersey-bill-aims-to-ban-drivers-use-of-gps-while-driving/
X
they arent trying to ban GPS , but are trying to ban “programming” it while driving.
Its still stupid and simply a new revenue stream.
[192] kettle
sorry mon frere, must disagree. As a former professional driver, I think that anything that we do while driving, except for listening to the radio, is a distraction.
I may not like the ban on cell phones, texting, programming, or putting on eyeliner (okay, the last is to be fair to the females) but it does distract and it does cause accidents.
Personally, I am more in favor of a rebuttable presumption of fault when a distraction is employed in an accident, but by that point it it too late. Libertarian though I may be, when it comes to preventing death and maiming, I think a ban on the obviously stupid is not out of order.
(rant off)
[173] sas
punch cigars suck.
Anybody available to work in MD? Nice building, decent benefits, easy-going crew, not a bad drive down into DC (35 min) the back way, and lots of housing stock?
Pay scales seem to be equivalent to working in CNJ.
Good accountant and a couple of scientists. QA and analytical types, and another for cell culture.
Also, if you’re CEO or Plant Manager material and willing to work in Ahmedabad for a few years, e-mail me.
pat_maryland@yahoo.com
Disclaimer: I am NOT a recruiter.
Nom
Nj already has a reckless driving law, under which i have seen legal opinions, that a cop could pull you over for for engaging in distracting behavior while operating a motor vehicle. Assuming that that the existing reckless driving law could be used in that manner, then why do we need multiple laws to cover similar behaviors when an existing law is adequate?
anyone listen to ric edelman’s podcast from last weekend? he’s one of these financial planner guru types (chi-fi probably knows him).
he didn’t go into detail, but said there’s an argument that can be made that we won’t see significant inflation.
grim, have you offered your thoughts on inflation?
Pat 195,
you trying to setup some sort of covert ops for a 3 letter US agency?
Ahmedabad is well placed for providing reasonable access to both pakistan and india. Sounds like someone is trying to collect bio/nuke intel by placing a technical individual in a strategic location.
what kind of benefits does this unnamed 3 letter agency provide, or should i say their shell corporation provide;)
SAS may be able to help
sorry N …nothing so interesting.
Just plain old boring life saving vaccine work.
Note: I have no stated opinion here. I am merely posting information from a data source.
WSJ
ABREAST OF THE MARKET
JUNE 22, 2009
Is the Bull Run Pulling Up Lame?
Overextended Rally Seen Ripe for Downturn; Look Out 6547.05, Says Mr. Roth
By E.S. BROWNING
The stock market is stumbling.
After a powerful rally that pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average ahead by more than 30% in three months through last week, stocks are clearly having trouble extending their gains.
Many analysts see a pullback ahead, and they are debating whether it will be just a temporary annoyance or something bigger and more painful.
Indicators of market health, including trading volume, buying demand and trading by companies and corporate insiders, are beginning to flash yellow or red. People also are beginning to question whether the economic fundamentals are strong enough to justify continued gains.
The Dow finished Friday at 8539.73, down 3% for the week. It is at the same levels now as in early May. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, which a week ago was up as much as 40% from its March low, ended Friday was at 921.23, still 36% above the low.
“This 40% rally isn’t based on a 40% increase in fundamentals,” says Michael Farr, president of Washington, D.C., money-management firm Farr, Miller & Washington. “The economy is still declining. Credit isn’t coming back. Unemployment is rising and we are seeing a much less robust consumer. I think the market at some point is going to give back a large portion of these gains.”
Mr. Farr and others say it is impossible to know whether the market already has topped out, or will edge higher before giving up the ghost. But even many bullish investors see a downturn ahead.
Stocks have surged since early March in part because government stimulus spending has found its way into financial markets and because some investors have moved money out of cash and into stocks.
Other investors may emerge from the sidelines. China Investment Corp., the giant sovereign-wealth fund, is considering potential U.S. investments. Its chairman, Lou Jiwei, has expressed concern that the fund is in danger of missing opportunities as the market rallies, according to people who work with the fund.
While those forces could keep pushing stocks higher for a while, some investors and analysts see signs that the rally’s underpinnings already are weakening.
Stocks seem a lot less cheap than before their big gains, and investors are no longer impressed when the economic news is simply less bad than before, says Linda Duessel, market strategist at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh.
She thinks improving corporate-profit reports will help push stocks significantly higher in the summer and fall. But, first, “history would suggest we would get a 5% to 10% correction somewhere,” she says.
That’s the optimistic view. Pessimists think the damage could be greater, and the real pessimists worry that stocks could fall to new lows by autumn. They say stocks just aren’t behaving as they have at the start of past bull markets.
Consider trading volume. Average daily volume for all New York Stock Exchange stocks hit a record of 7.21 billion shares in March, as the rally began and heavy buying sent stocks sharply higher. That slipped to 6.42 billion in April, and so far this month, it is running at 5.14 billion, putting it well below the 2009 average of 6.15 billion a day.
“A new bull market is one when investors are prepared to commit larger and larger amounts of new money to equities,” says Paul Desmond, president of Lowry Research in North Palm Beach, Fla. “What we have seen here is a very consistent drop in total volume going back to early April.”
Mr. Desmond says his data, going back to the 1930s, don’t show any new bull market with such a weak volume trend, which leads him to believe that this rally won’t become a lasting bull market.
Other data reinforce that concern. The number of stocks joining in the gains has begun to shrink, which doesn’t typically happen this soon in a real bull market. And Mr. Desmond’s measure of stock demand, based on the amount of trading volume and price change occurring on stock gains, indicates that demand has been fading, another negative signal.
“Investors are risking smaller and smaller amounts of capital and that is a bad sign,” Mr. Desmond says.
Phil Roth of New York brokerage firm Miller Tabak shares many of these concerns, and has other worries as well. New stock issuance hit a record in May, he notes, which has created a lake of supply just as demand is softening. Senior corporate officers, who had been buying for their accounts earlier this year, have become net sellers. Neither trend supports the market.
Mr. Roth says indexes still might gain some ground before topping out, and he wouldn’t be surprised to see the Dow hit 9000. But once it starts to fall, he fears, it could sink below the March closing low of 6547.05.
People who recently took money from cash and bought stocks won’t want to reverse course unless they get a shock, he says. If they do get a shock, perhaps an indication that the economy’s troubles are more lasting than people had hoped, that could produce new selling and new lows. “At some point, investors will be saying, where is the good news?” he says.
Mr. Roth also tracks corporate-bond yields, because falling bond yields make bonds less desirable and can help stocks. While Treasury bond yields overall have been rising this year, the difference, or spread, between corporate yields and Treasurys has been shrinking.
The spread between yields of double-A corporate bonds and Treasury bonds has averaged 1.45 percentage points over the past 30 years, Mr. Roth says. At its worst during the credit crunch last year it was 3.81 points. Recently, it has fallen to 2.78 points, better but still not half way back to average. That means corporate bonds remain more attractive than normal and are competing with stocks for investor money, especially when investors are nervous.
Given the big recent stock gains, investors seem to be waiting for either a fall in price or a considerable brightening in the economic outlook before they put a lot more money into the market.
“We could see a little bit more upside and then some very frustrating, choppy trading in the summer, setting up for a traditional October low,” warns John Schlitz, chief technical strategist at Instinet in New York.
sas (106)-
I’m with you. Get a washer, dryer, Dell and an ISP, and you’re kickin’ it old skool like the batos in ‘merika.
Not a long step at all from there to a crap mortgage, denominated in swissies.
Not a long step from all of E Europe puking up those crap mortgages to starting a cascade of wrong that wrecks the Euro.
“…but, the more i think about, i think the real roots of the RE bubble & dot com bust might stem from the push of NATO to the east back i think during Reagen or was it early Clinton.”
yikes,
The Retreat of the Shadow Lenders, Why Deflation and not Inflation is the Order of the Day
http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/quantitative_easing.php
yikes (123)-
Football is an odd, odd game.
sas (173)-
A Cuban Punch, I’m sure.
Or, a Bolivar.
yikes (178)-
Over the moon. Nice to see a semblance of football from our tiny little nation.
I’m really over the moon that my son dropped a little Graydon from Montclair in his tracks today when said insect tried to pull a Bozo the Clown-quality double scissors to get by him.
No foul, no card, play on.
Best Father’s Day ever.
Yikes,
you didnt ask, and i am just a highschool janitor, but…
inflation isnt the problem. the fed has printed a trillion of so lately but this is still an order of magnitude less then the amount of debt that has disappeared from the system.
when you are bleeding debt (debt destruction) an order of magnitude faster then you are printing, then there is no comparison. If no new debt is being created at a sufficient rate and existing debts are being written down, then inflation could only become a worry when the rate of debt destruction levels off.
to put that in terms of housing, deflation (debt destruction) doesnt happen until foreclosure rates begin to return to historical norms and lending standards return to historical standards.
worrying about inflation at this point is like worrying about your house flooding when the roof is on fire. yes the river may be rising, but the fire is burning way faster then the river is rising
to follow that analogy and visualize why inflation following deflation is so nasty, consider the river rising and wiping out the portion of the house the firemen were able to save?
instead of just losing the garage, you lost the whole house. In the end it matters not which disaster wipes you out, the goal is to preserve the resources you currently have
sas (189)
My nomination for post of the year (so far):
‘“Is there a place in New Jersey where taxes are not an issue”
the graveyards?’
opps correction
to put that in terms of housing, Inflation doesnt happen until foreclosure rates begin to return to historical norms and lending standards return to historical standards.
clot sas,
how long before NJ see’s a grave tax levied on the family? A whole new class of property tax
Pat (195)-
Can I make anthrax? I’m a fast learner…
“Good accountant and a couple of scientists. QA and analytical types, and another for cell culture.”
vodka (210)-
It’s frightening that I read your post and see it as being entirely possible.
Moody’s Joins S.& P. in Warning on California Debt
The state of California is facing a multinotch downgrade of its debt if it fails to resolve its enormous budget woes, Moody’s Investors Service said Friday. The warning follows a similar one from Standard & Poor’s, which put the state on a negative credit watch earlier this week because of its dismal financial condition. “If the legislature does not take action quickly, the state’s cash situation will deteriorate to the point where the controller will have to delay most nonpriority payments in July,” Moody’s said in a statement.
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/19/moodys-joins-sp-in-warning-on-california-debt/
WSJ
STARTING OUT
JUNE 21, 2009
Relief for School Loans
By JONNELLE MARTE
Struggling to pay your federal student loans and the rest of your living expenses?
Starting July 1, some college graduates will be able to get lower loan payments under the federal government’s new Income Based Repayment Plan, which calculates monthly payments based on a person’s income and family size.
The program will be open to graduates who have a Stafford, Graduate PLUS or consolidation loan made under either the William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan or Federal Family Education Loan programs. The loans could be for undergraduate, graduate or professional studies as well as for job training. (Loans currently in default, parent PLUS loans and consolidation loans that include a parent PLUS loan don’t qualify.)
“If you’re earning a lot less than you thought you would short term or long term, you can make affordable payments on your loan, stay in good standing and have a light at the end of the tunnel,” says Lauren Asher, president of the Project on Student Debt, a consumer group based in Berkeley, Calif.
Immediate Relief
Under the plan, annual loan payments will be 15% of the difference between a borrower’s gross income and 150% of the federal poverty-level income, which depends on family size and state of residence. Monthly payments will be one-twelfth of that amount. For a single borrower in New York with no children, for example, the 150% would equal about $16,000.
So, if that single borrower makes $30,000 a year and has a $25,000 student loan, he or she would have a monthly payment of about $172 under the IBR plan — compared with a $288 monthly payment under a standard 10-year payment plan with 6.8% interest, according to the U.S. Department of Education.
You’ll generally qualify if you owe about as much in federal student loans as you make in a year, says Ms. Asher. “This is hugely important,” she adds, “especially right now when so many people are encountering much worse job prospects than they could have imagined when they first borrowed [money] for a graduate or bachelor’s degree.”
If you make less than 150% of the federal poverty level, your monthly payment — which is recalculated annually — would be $0 until your salary increases.
One caveat: The lower payments extend the life of your loan, so you may end up paying more interest in the long run.
And After 25 Years…
To enroll in the plan, contact your lender. Borrowers will have to submit copies of their tax returns or other approved income documents annually for monthly payments to be recalculated.
The Department of Education has more information and a calculator that estimates monthly payments, at studentaid.ed.gov. The Project on Student Debt has a video explaining the plan and its own payment calculator, at IBRinfo.org.
After 25 years of qualifying payments, the principal loan balance may be forgiven.
Loan payments made under the standard 10-year repayment plan also count toward the 25-year requirement. Time granted for hardship loan deferments counts as well. The lender is responsible for keeping track of which payments qualify.
In addition, people in the IBR plan remain eligible for the Public Service Loan Forgiveness Program, which forgives loan balances for people with Direct Loans who work in the public sector for 10 years.
clot
why should the dead get to use all that prime real estate without paying their FARE SHARE TM
chi (214)-
Pop goes the bubble.
I’ll never need to buy Ipecac again. I’ll just tape this to my bathroom mirror:
“In addition, people in the IBR plan remain eligible for the Public Service Loan Forgiveness Program, which forgives loan balances for people with Direct Loans who work in the public sector for 10 years.”
vodka (215)-
I’m too smashed to struggle for a Weekend at Bernie’s metaphor, but I know it’s there.
Chifi 214,
welcome to debt serfdom
Clot, you could make an anthrax omlette and I’d prolly try it. ;P
Yeah, that string of jobs does sound kind of wacky when you add the anthrax.
If I’m doomed to live in France, I’m moving to the real fcuking deal.
Where are my fcuking World Cups?
I should have added “bartender” at the end of the list.
#195 “Also, if you’re CEO or Plant Manager material and willing to work in Ahmedabad for a few years, e-mail me.”
Pat, while there, an expat could consider getting an executive MBA from IIM Ahmedabad…absolutely worth it.
Pat (219)-
Gotta mask the anthrax with a heavy dusting of fines herbes.
Then again, anthrax is sorta like the vermouth in a martini: utterly necessary, but only in judicious amounts.
clot 217,
maybe this will help
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRMlvBfSBYQ&feature=related
California nightmare
“Our wallet is empty, our bank is closed, and our credit is dried up,” Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger told a rare joint session of the California legislature early this month. “People are writing California off. They are talking about the end of the California dream.” If only that was hyperbole. California, home to 38 million people, or 13 per cent of Americans, faces a stunning $24.3 billion (U.S.) budget shortfall. The state controller, John Chiang, warned last week that California is “less than 50 days away from a meltdown in the state government.” The Golden State will run out of cash to pay its bills by the end of July.
http://www.thestar.com/business/article/653937
Nom,
Dodd’s Irish Luck
The Senator Sure Knows How to Pick an Investment.
Irish property prices have plummeted since 2002. But a “cottage” in County Galway owned by Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd has tripled in value during the same period, according to a financial disclosure form filed by the Senator this month. There are two possible explanations for this remarkable turn of fortune. Maybe Mr. Dodd is luckier than a leprechaun. Or could it be that he paid well below the market price when he bought out a co-owner in 2002 and had undervalued the property accordingly? If it’s the latter, then Mr. Dodd received a “gift,” in IRS parlance, and should have declared it on his financial disclosure form that year. He did not. Oh, and by the way, the seller at that low, low price has been the business partner of a man for whom Mr. Dodd lobbied to receive a Presidential pardon.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124545642440632999.html
Nom,
Dodd’s Irish Luck.
The Senator Sure Knows How to Pick an Investment.
Irish property prices have plummeted since 2002. But a “cottage” in County Galway owned by Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd has tripled in value during the same period, according to a financial disclosure form filed by the Senator this month. There are two possible explanations for this remarkable turn of fortune. Maybe Mr. Dodd is luckier than a leprechaun. Or could it be that he paid well below the market price when he bought out a co-owner in 2002 and had undervalued the property accordingly? If it’s the latter, then Mr. Dodd received a “gift,” in IRS parlance, and should have declared it on his financial disclosure form that year. He did not. Oh, and by the way, the seller at that low, low price has been the business partner of a man for whom Mr. Dodd lobbied to receive a Presidential pardon.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124545642440632999.html
vodka (227)-
Is the mortgage on that little pied-a-terre held by Bank of Amerrillwide?
Stu,
this one is for you
China’s credit boom has increased bank lending by more than 6 trillion yuan since December. Many analysts think an economic boom will follow in the second half 2009. They will be disappointed. Much of this lending has not been used to support tangible projects but, instead, has been channeled into asset markets. Many boom forecasters think asset market speculation will lead to spending growth through the wealth effect. But creating a bubble to support an economy brings, at best, a few short-term benefits along with a lot of long-term pain.
http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-06-19/110186641.html
Let me guess…Northern Crock…
China = co-dependent
Monetary policy of most populous nation on Earth:
Let’s peg our currency to certain doom.
Kettle – 229 Stu is finishing his father’s day celebration at the track. He will respond tomorrow. I am a good wife :)
Gator (233)-
Better hope he doesn’t come home with this:
http://www.tvacres.com/dogs_greyhounds_santa.htm
How do you say “Smoot-Hawley” in Chinese?
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/06/buy-china-policy-will-raise.html
GRIM and/or CLOT and/or other NJ real estate agents:
I just signed a contract to purchase a home, before having been given the Seller’s Disclosure. Now I was given a copy of it, and am very surprised to find it discloses that the basement is not heated. The basement is a walk-out with very high ceilings and several totally finished rooms, including a big full bathroom, a kitchen, an office, and a home theater family room — most of which was very strongly advertised as selling points in the listing and promotional materials as comprising the fantastic finished basement. My question: was that ok per real estate ethics rules for it to be listed as a finished basement, with all the touting of those rooms in the listing and promotional material, when there’s no heat? We are only beginning attorney review, so I’m free to get out of the deal if I’m not happy with this discovery, but if I do go forward with the deal, I don’t know if it would be unreasonable or not to make an issue of this.
kodiak (236)-
Seller Disclosures are worthless documents. They are only made in order to absolve the Realtor of the liability of non-disclosure. Use your home inspection report as the document that will guide you in assessing the condition of your purchase.
Good night, and good luck:
“It seems that many Chinese buy real estate because they view it as a “can’t lose” investment (sound familiar?). They don’t often rent out the space. It is not as easy to rent residential space in China, because anybody who can would rather buy a new house, partly because of the prestige value, but also partly because they believe that real estate is a “can’t lose” investment. Evidently they have the belief that at some point in the future, they could always sell the property, since it is still technically “new.” Remember, there is at best only a very small secondary market in real estate in China. Nobody in China goes shopping for a “used” home, they always look for a home in brand new developments. These are typically high rise apartment buildings that are really not very attractive at all by our standards (with some exceptions in parts of Beijing and some of the other largest cities). They often look more like tenement slums, particularly after they age a few years, because nobody does much painting or landscaping in Chinese residential areas. I have never seen housing tracts like the ones that are so common in the US, and I suppose they exist somewhere to a very limited extent, but I never even saw any single-family free-standing homes. It’s all high rise condo/apartment buildings. I realize this is kind of paradoxical…..that Chinese would believe they can always make money selling a home second-hand despite the fact that the secondary market is small or even nonexistent in places. But, that’s China. I think they are less concerned with actually realizing a gain, than in maintaining a paper gain. Again, a not insignificant factor here is the prestige value.”
http://www.feer.com/economics/2009/june53/Chinas-Real-Estate-Riddle
I won $60, but should have won more. My last bet was a $1 tri box w/ 4 horse in a 6 horse race. The favorite was 2/5 and I left him out since his last race, which he won by a mile, was an abomination and otherwise he was not top 5. Well I caught the Los Alamitos 5th race triple with a 4-1, 5-1 and 10-1 finish for 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Damn triple only paid $124. I was robbed. The 2-5 finished in 4th. I suppose the 6 horse field diluted the trifecta pole. Better than losing I suppose.
Kettle1,
Thanks for the China updates. As you know, I’m underwater on my FXP play. Waiting for a double down still. I heard similar things about their RE. The only negative is that they really don’t have much of a dangerous mortgage market like we have. I do feel that all of their numbers are total BS though. This coupled with ChiFi’s posting of a second dip this fall keeps me feeling optimistic.
Good night all and happy father’s day to those who are crazy enough to have kids in this economic environment.
Clot #238,
Indians also have a similar cultural affinity to buying ‘new’ (I’m sure you’ve noticed). Part of the ‘experience’ is calling your peeps back in India and telling them you bought new, no prestige in buying ‘used’, just like buying a used car.
“punch cigars suck.”
well, i always liked the cuban punch. they made them a little stronger down there. but, i admit, i don’t know all there is to know about cigars.
SAS
ketle1 & yome,
thoughts?
“China’s refined oil consumption hits record in May”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-refined-oil-consumption-hits-record-in-may
SAS
Clot,
i know it sounds off, but the back after the fall of the curtain, and the push of NATO further to the east, had serious ramifications, that if you start connecting dots, they started to to give birth to the bubbles (RE).
basically, they gave labor & delivery to the creature, and the creature did its damage.
i know i am speaking in sas’ism…
i will be clearer in future as my buddy and I up in Boston weed through the archives.
Its just some food for thought.
SAS
It is draw?
Absurdity what that