Perfect time to buy? Or to stay on the sidelines?

From the Record:

Buying smart is all in the timing

After two years of home shopping — and one canceled deal — MaryAnn and Bryan Rust bought their first house, a three-bedroom Maywood ranch, this month. They were motivated by lower home values, inexpensive mortgage money and an $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time buyers.

“Once we had the $8,000 in tax credits, that was the deal sealer,” said Bryan Rust, a 31-year-old electrician. While it’s not a huge amount of money, the tax credit will give them a little cushion against the cost of unexpected repairs, he said.

“Knowing we have at least an $8,000 credit is putting us ahead of the game,” Rust said.

The tax credit, which went into effect this year in an effort to jump-start a glum housing market, has apparently brought some first-timers into the housing market.

Certainly, home sales activity is still down from a year ago. A rising unemployment rate — now above 9 percent nationwide — means that many people are out of work and in no position to take on a mortgage or are worried about losing their jobs.

Moreover, many economists and housing analysts expect home prices to drop further, and many potential buyers are waiting for bigger bargains.

Still, first-timers comprise close to half of all buyers, up from the typical 40 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors. North Jersey Realtors agree that the starter-home market is much more active than the luxury market.

The Rusts first ventured into the real estate market in 2007 as the volume of home sales was starting to fall after the housing boom. Prices were still significantly higher than they are now. The Rusts signed a contract to buy a Ringwood house for almost $400,000, but backed out when a home inspection turned up serious roof problems.

They watched as that house later sold for $50,000 less.

“I felt like things were kind of making a turn south,” Rust said. “My wife and I decided to wait and see what the market does. Things started to come down. Houses sat on the market for a long time. A lot of the houses we saw two years ago are still on the market to this day.”

The couple used that time to pay down debt and save a bigger down payment. Then, as prices and mortgage rates dropped over the past eight months — and the federal tax credit kicked in — the Rusts felt it might be time to jump back in.

Watching home prices drop over the past two years, the Rusts sometimes wonder if they will fall further and lead them to regret buying now.

“That’s a risk we’re going to have to take,” Bryan Rust said. “When are you ever going to have the perfect time? We felt this was the best time to make the move.”

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270 Responses to Perfect time to buy? Or to stay on the sidelines?

  1. DL says:

    Friend of mine just bought in N. Va. Don’t know what he paid but he offered $30k below asking on a farm property (he has horses) and sellers accepted. Friend said the house was recently listed and if it had spent more DOM he could have gone lower.

  2. grim says:

    #1 – Unfortunately, unless they extend it into next spring, the efficacy of the increased stimulus will not materialize.

    The fact is, most move up buyers have kids, and they aren’t going to be making moves during the school year. The clock is ticking, and the window for making a school-driven move is closing quickly.

    In this area, contracts peak during the months of May, April, June, and July. Closed sales peak in the June, July, and August timeframe.

    I suppose some might make the move early, based on hope that the increased stimulus will pass.

  3. yome says:

    Green shoot:Last sale and tax info
    Sold 10/02/2008: $313,000 *
    2009 Property Tax: $1,683

    For sale $480,000

  4. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    World Bank Cuts Forecast for Global Growth to 2.9%

    The World Bank said the global recession this year will be deeper than it predicted in March and warned that a flight of capital from developing nations will swell the ranks of the poor and the unemployed.

    The world economy will contract 2.9 percent, compared with a previous forecast of a 1.7 percent decline, the Washington- based lender said in a report today. Growth will be 2 percent next year, down from a 2.3 percent prediction, the bank said.

    The bank, formed after World War II to fund health and development projects in poor countries, said that while a global recovery may begin this year, impoverished economies will lag behind rich nations in benefiting. The lender called for “bold” actions to hasten a rebound and said the prospects for securing aid for the poorest countries were “bleak.”

    “The recovery is not going to be V-shaped,” said Alvin Liew, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore. “We may see slower consumer demand over a prolonged period.”

    The bank is more pessimistic than its sister organization, the International Monetary Fund. The IMF, which is forecasting a global contraction of only 1.3 percent this year and growth of 2.4 percent in 2010, said June 19 that it plans to revise estimates “modestly upward.”

  5. yikes says:

    Grim – question … what are the chances that this 15k tax credit becomes … well, 15k? (like a 15k tax deduction?)

    and would it be retroactive to any purchase from 2009?

  6. traveljerk123 says:

    Advise for a romantic dinner in Miami?

    Need your help from those who’re familiar with Miami. I’ll be in there in a few days celebrating our anniversary and need some romantic dinner tips to entice my wife.
    Don’t wanna do too expensive, budget would be under $150 since we are already spending on travel/etc….
    Need advice on:
    1. Dinner on the beach OR
    2. Dinner cruise OR
    3. Plz feel free to suggest

    many thanks in advance

  7. about says:

    we have been looking for 3 years now– opting to wait until atleast spring 2010 or 2011. Weighing out the rise in interest rate versus the drop in housing prices, we opt for the latter even if it is the same money ultimately. Had a feeling the first time buyer incentives would extend. it is a good time to be on the sidelines holding the bag.

  8. Clotpoll says:

    Yet another chapter in the systematic looting of the United States:

    “How many Commercial Mortgages will Chase Bank be allowed to unload through TALF, a government program that has hired as its collateral monitor Trepp LLC whose UK Parent company utilizes, as their stockbroker, a company that is owned 50% by JP Morgan Chase.”

  9. JBJB says:

    Even 15K is still basically useless for NJ if they don’t remove (or raise) the income restrictions.

  10. dblko says:

    I wish they would stop all this tax credit nonsense and just let home prices come down.

  11. Clotpoll says:

    No can do, dblko. If that happens, the MBS are toast, and we enter the second Ice Age.

    Who’s kidding who? We’re already toast. The only mystery now is whether we can kick it down the road far enough so that our children suffer the consequences and we can live out our years in stoned, mindless consumption of crap.

  12. John says:

    Eastman Kodak to Retire KODACHROME Color Film This Year After 74 Years – Light Early Share Interest

    You camera buffs better stock up!

  13. chicagofinance says:

    “Knowing we have at least an $8,000 credit is putting us ahead of the game,” Rust said.

    Rusty: until you realize that your purchase price is about $8,000 higher than it would have been otherwise……..YOU’VE BEEN PUNK’D

  14. John says:

    Lets see average baby boomer has three echo-boomer kids who are now entering housing market near Ma and Pa in BC NJ. Ma and Pa house has fallen 300K, but hey all three kids get 300K off their new home for a savings of 900K for kids vs. a los of 300K for Ma and Pa, sounds like a 600K windfall for that family, green shoots for everyone!

  15. #13- /sniff…. Not really surprising though. They’ve been trying to kill the Kodachrome films for years as it’s very expensive to manufacture. The Ektachrome line is just about as good and doesn’t have to be sent to Dwayne’s for processing.
    Still, some of the most iconic images of the past 50 years were all shot on Kodachrome. I believe Nat Geo used to require that photographic submissions be in Koda.

  16. grim says:

    Someone here said it the other day.

    If you qualify for the tax credit, you probably can’t afford to buy.

    Saw a $600k house with the $8k tax credit advert hanging off the shingle.


  17. grim says:

    #16 – Nod. Kodachrome was such an iconic brand it actually had a song written about it. Can you believe it? A song about *FILM*?

  18. grim says:

    They give us those nice bright colors, the give us the greens of summers, makes you think the world a sunny day oh yea. Got my nikon camera, love to take the photographs, momma don’t take my kodachrome away!

  19. Dissident HEHEHE says:


    Speaking of Hoboken. Neighbor in my old building is listing an identical unit as my wife and I did for 5K less than we did. Hoboken RE is popping.

  20. EWellie says:

    If you live in this area, that tax credit is a joke. I actually know some people who have been motivated by this. They just don’t get that it’s a drop in the bucket compared to the ludicrous price they still plan on paying. Some people are just thick-headed. When it becomes 15K, the morons will really be in high gear.

  21. 3b says:

    #11dbiko: With or without the 8k or 15k tax credit, prices are still falling, and will continue to fall. Simple as that.

  22. CAIBC says:

    15K is still nothing if anyone can believe the businessweek article from the other day

  23. kettle1 says:


    No can do, dblko. If that happens, the MBS are toast, and we enter the second Ice Age.

    i believe that at this point, the plan is most likely to delay MBS crumbling until the connected players can offload the majority of the radioactive paper to those who will be allowed to collapse.

  24. EWellie says:


    True, but I think the tax credit is keeping prices higher than they should be, at least around here. It seems to me the tax credit is multiplied in the home price–the formula seems to be 8K credit = 75K too much in sale!

  25. John says:

    That is one amazing picture, the old film has such depth. Digital is garbage.

  26. grim says:

    4×5 in Kodachrome? If 35mm Kodachrome is about 20 megapixel, 4×5 has got to be somewhere around 200 megapixel resolution. If it is anything less, the film is outresolving the glass.

  27. Aardvark says:

    Wow – that brings back memories – imagine a teen today – they do not even know what film is

  28. BklynHawk says:

    Great pic. Didn’t realize those uniforms looked so much like factory overalls?

  29. Richie says:

    I see Weichert signs with “8k tax credit” advertised on them next to most for sale signs that they have in town, probably trying to imply that it only applies to their listings.

    Why only let it apply to first time buyers? What’s wrong with other people? If you want houses to move; there either has to be a demand for real estate; or a motivation to move up.

  30. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:


    I just spent 15 minutes looking at some of Shorpy’s prints. Just Magnificent !

    That was worth a bookmark.

  31. 3b says:

    Barry Benson From post 183 last night).

    Taxes are a major issue in River Edge,we have one of the highest in Bergen Co, and there is no end in sight.

    I understand your space constraints, but if you hold off another 6 to 12 months, I think it will be well worth it.

    Buying now when prices in River Edge (and the rest of Bergen Co),are finally starting to drop significantly, is not IMO the best move.

    You could also look at renting, there are quite a few single family homes in town for rent. Your kids would be in the school system, while you can take your time looking, while prices continue to fall.

    Also if you are not from the area, be careful where you buy, realtors will typically steer you to the houses on busy streets etc. If you let me know the street, I can tell you yes or no, if you are insistent on buying at this time.

  32. sas says:

    “imagine a teen today – they do not even know what film is”

    they don’t even know how to use a restroom, and wet the bed.

    but they do know american idol & MTV, and watch 5 hrs+ TV/day.

    welcome to the decline of America.

  33. 3b says:

    #25 ewellie: Maybe, but inventory is not blowing out the door. Another dead Spring selling season, in my area,and new listings coming on every day, as the end of the Spring selling season approaches at the end of June.

  34. sas says:


    that too sounds like many adults.
    maybe thats the problem with america, too many adults still think they kids.

    i don’t want to think anymore, i just want to drink my coffee and look at the kodachrome pics.


  35. safeashouses says:

    More green shoots in Summit.

    From Trulia: Sold in 10/1997 for 179k. Sold in 7/06 for 427k. now listed at 359k. If you click on the map you’ll see it’s near the tracks and Rt 24.

  36. cooper says:

    is it me?
    the majority of homes I come across seem to be only %5-10 off peak… now I get that some were upgraded but how much of that translates into dollars at sale? Just in the past week I’ve seen 3 homes for sale (bought during peak yrs) that came on at or above what day paid.

  37. Sean says:

    3b – no warning on those homes in River Edge that are literally underwater every few years?

    The global warming crowd says the hundred year flood are going to occur every 10 years or so now.

  38. about says:

    does anyone know what when on in regards to the proposed elimination of property tax deduction for over 150K last week?

  39. #32 – is awesome. I try to visit at least once a week.

    #29 – they do not even know what film is
    Most don’t, but there are enough who do to keep Holga and Lomo going.

  40. sas says:

    “green shoots”

    anytime some disc jokey in the financial press starts wishing upon a star for green shoots and touts recovery and hails the Fed and knucklehead Geitner… just ask yourself:

    what about systemic risk?

    oh yeah, lets ignore that one.

    ok, i gotta run.

  41. safeashouses says:

    #37 Another one in the same area of Summit, also from Trulia.

    Sold 7/05 for 422,500. Now listed at 299k. The list is 29% off the last sold price.

    As a bonus the seller has started renovations, but no pictures or details to show what stage it is in.

  42. 3b says:

    #39 sean: It is much worse in New Milford, on the other side of the Hackensack River, they got slammed in 2007.

  43. Shore Guy says:


    Some of us (the geezers) remember Cousin Brucie (Bruce Morrow) playing that song on W-AAAAAAA-B-C (cue the jingle), Seventy-seven W-A-B-C ding.

    And then entered AOR stations like WMMR out of Philly and burried the ABCs of the world.

  44. Shore Guy says:

    ““Knowing we have at least an $8,000 credit is putting us ahead of the game,” Rust said”

    So the $8m, means that as prices drop an additional 1%/month this year they will be $8m less behind where they would have been had they waited (idnoring the extra interest paid on the higher loan amount).

    Let me have a green-shoot salad for lunch. Not only are we going to stay on the sidelines, we are going to take off our shoulder pads and sit on the bench, so we can’t jump in.

  45. Comrade nom deplume says:

    [227] kettle (prior thread)

    Amazing. That Irish-Dodd deal reeks. If it were a republican, MSM would be calling for pitchforks and ropes, but since it’s Dodd, all we hear from MSM are the crickets.

  46. CalculatedRisk has a link to an AJC article on problems with foreclosure data. From the article;

    When the most frequently quoted source of foreclosure information released its April statistics, it estimated that 3,746 properties in metro Atlanta’s five core counties had been slapped with foreclosure sale notices.

    But a review of local legal advertisements – the only official source of Georgia foreclosure information – suggested a decidedly different number for April, with 7,462 properties slated for auction on the courthouse steps.

    I’m sure we’re all familiar with the ways the numbers can be contaminated, but that’s a pretty big discrepancy.

  47. Shore Guy says:


    I don’t know that it is particularly romantic but Joe’s Stone Crab House is a good meal in Southbeach.

  48. reinvestor101 the impostor says:

    re #46 – Comrade – Peter Schiff is considering running against Dodd for his Senate Seat.

    I would love to see those two in a Debate.

  49. renter says:

    #34 SAS

    We were at dinner with a friend whose daughter attended the local high school and the teacher asked a class (Home Ec?) How you would make soup? The general answer was “Open the can.”

  50. Victorian says:

    Anecdote –

    Was hunting for apartments this weekend as my landlord has sold her condo. It is carnage out there especially in Middlesex County. Lots of 2 months/ 3 months free complexes. Not saying all of them are nice, but still, pretty amazing to see.

  51. Sastry says:

    Sync #241 Previous Thread…

    Re: “New vs used houses.”

    It’s going to be so interesting when we visit India next month and tell people that we bought a foreclosed house! We couldn’t buy a new house, not even a regular one, and it’s not even in a major city like Detroit! :)


  52. Secondary Market says:


    i’d say dinner at the delano hotel in south beach is a must. unfortunately you might have to change your budget to $250 to really enjoy it. although, if you’re not a drinker you’ll save a lot that way.

  53. John says:

    Yea but teen boys now don’t even need a GF to get BJ as they all have multiple FWBs, we were all suckers in our time.

    sas says:
    June 22, 2009 at 9:04 am
    “imagine a teen today – they do not even know what film is”

    they don’t even know how to use a restroom, and wet the bed.

    but they do know american idol & MTV, and watch 5 hrs+ TV/day.

    welcome to the decline of America.

  54. kettle1 says:



    If It’s Too Big to Fail, Is It Too Big to Exist?

    Nearly a century ago, the jurist Louis Brandeis railed against what he called the “curse of bigness.” He warned that banks, railroads and steel companies had grown so huge that they were lording it over the nation’s economic and political life. “Size, we are told, is not a crime,” Brandeis wrote. “But size may, at least, become noxious by reason of the means through which it is attained or the uses to which it is put.”

  55. x-underwriter says:

    traveljerk123 says:
    Advise for a romantic dinner in Miami?

    I spent a couple of nights at the Ritz Carlton in Key Biscayne. They have a really cool “Rum Bar” and salsa bands play Thurs – Saturday.
    If you really want a romantic way to get the Miami/Cuba feel without having to worry about the criminal element, this would be the place.
    The resort is gorgeous….but don’t be shocked at paying $12 for a mojito.

  56. ricky_nu says:

    can anyone get me the listing history for this property:

    NJMLS# 2900066

    I am most interested in the orignal listing price (I think it was way higher)

  57. traveljerk123 says:

    thanks x-underwriter, Secondary Market & Shore Guy

  58. Qwerty says:

    RE: “Once we had the $8,000 in tax credits, that was the deal sealer” … the tax credit will give them a little cushion against the cost of unexpected repairs, he said.

    One who sees the small sum of $8,000 as a “cushion” shouldn’t be buying a house in NJ.

  59. EWellie says:


    You got it. Sadly, many simply don’t get it. I think it’s just that mentality people have concerning the perception that something is “free.”

    When people ask me why we don’t buy a house now and that the 8K incentive is such a big deal, I respond, “Why would I spend an extra 75K to get back 8K?” It’s what the Brits call a false economy.

  60. Secondary Market says:

    travel, the other thing to remember is that all restaurants in miami/sobe include gratuity automatically. i learned this the hard way by double tipping on two separate occasions. my guess is they do this due to the high euro tourism where gratuity is usually factored into the bill in many european countries.

  61. Comrade nom deplume says:

    It occurs to me that the 8K incentive is really a form of “teaser rate.” The Left and the Feds decry the use of teaser rates for goading people into buying more home than they can afford, yet they rope people into housing buys with an 8K incentive, that will goad people into buying more home than they can afford.

    I see no distinction except for actors and motives, which, in the eyes of the supporters of the One, is reason enough. After all, they are on the side of the angels.

  62. kettle1 says:


    the paradox of power. Those who seek power are often the least deserving there of and those best suited to hold power are often not interested in doing so

  63. skep-tic says:

    actually, since the feds have given license to monetize the 8k tax credit, it is basically a welfare payment at this point.

    another way to think of it is as a “loss leader,” since the gov’t takes a small up front loss in order to chain you into a much more valuable obligation

  64. safeashouses says:

    #60 EWellie,


    We looked at houses in Warren, Westfield, Watchung, and Livingston. Starter homes are now in our price range, but we think if we wait till next Spring, we can buy a house we can live in till the kids finish school. Another 10 to 15% drop should do it for us. Or we think a starter home would get priced low enough in Spring 2010 for us to have room in the budget to finish the basement or expand the house.

    And if we’re wrong and prices flatline or some how go up, we can move somewhere else in the US.

  65. skep-tic says:

    just think that if the gov’t had directed all of the money they’ve spent trying to prop up housing differently, national health care would’ve been mostly paid for

  66. JBJB says:

    Interesting post from Megan Mcardle on the housing impact on mobility:

  67. EWellie says:


    I’m with you–and I’m also confidently betting on Deutsche Bank’s predictions.

  68. JBJB says:

    “since the gov’t takes a small up front loss in order to chain you into a much more valuable obligation”

    8K is small loss for a lifetime of providing a slush fund to local idiots in the form of RE taxes.

  69. gary says:

    You people just don’t get it, it’s all about hope and change. I may not get a job for years but as long as I have hope, nothing else matters. Ooo… here comes the mailman… I wonder if the “One” has sent me another dependancy check!! I’ve been dying to get that 60 inch flat screen!

  70. safeashouses says:

    Here’s a cape in Livingston that’s now 4% over it’s 2003 sale price.

    It’s now listed at 398,500.
    Was purchased in 11/2003 for 383,000.

  71. frank says:

    Where’s the recession???

    Goldman Sachs (GS) to pay out record bonuses in H1 after a spectacular half.

  72. Ben says:

    Make it a $50k tax credit that I can monetize and I’ll buy. The government has actually done a pretty crappy job coming up with these cheesy ways to stimulate housing. They have to know they won’t work. An 8k tax credit can prop housing prices up at most 8k, IMO. I think the Federal Government actually loves the carnage in the housing market. The more it falls, the more legislation they get to pass through and line their own pockets.

  73. safeashouses says:

    #68 Ewallie,

    It seems like houses doubled in price from 2002 to 2005/6 in the towns we are looking in. We are seeing houses listing for 2003/4 prices, so hopefully by waiting another year we can get 1 for an 01/02 price.

    Here’s an example in Livingston. Data from Trulia.

    The house more than doubled in price from 4/02 to 10/05. It’s now listed for 10% off the 05 sales price.

  74. John says:

    GS should pay record bonuses, they short changed everyone in 2009 and they really really trimmed the dead wood and have not added headcount. So in 2010 top performers they need will need a record bonus, GS has not added any new headcount and even if they do so it will be towards end of year so they won’t get a 2010 bonus.

  75. gary says:

    See, here’s the type of the thing that really burns my f*cking @ss to no end. The f*cking sellers bought this house for 435K in 2002 and they think they deserve a price tag of 799K after dropping it from 819K. No, wrong. Sorry! F*ck You! The house should be listed at around 575K, not some made-up dream f*cking price that you came up with because you have stars in your f*cking eyes. Drop dead! Dear seller, tick… tick…. tick…. tick…

  76. 3b says:

    #73 frank: Yeah frank I guess the goldman people are going to share their bonus money with everyone else, to end the recession.

    By the way when I was at goldman in the early 90’s during that recession, I had some of my best compensation years ever. We (the firm) were making tons of money, the rest of the economy was in recession.

    Except for not being able to sell our house without taking a loss, there was no recession for us at the time, but there certainly was for many other people.

  77. zieba says:

    Does anybody here have any experience with Edgewater?

    Any strikes for or against? I am considering signing a lease.

    I like the 5 minute drive up to the GWB (where I work) and the rather short public transport options to midtown.
    Street parking is a bit of concern.

  78. CAIBC says:

    maybe instead of 8K in cash, the govt should pass a percentage rule…say 5% of purchase price…kind of evens out the playing field for those buying in NJ? may also start the price decline roller coaster to go faster?

  79. John says:

    Another unpleasant ‘Kodak moment’
    Commentary: The film that recorded the baby boom faces retirement
    LONDON (MarketWatch) — As the first wave of baby boomers begins to retire, a key tool in recording their early history is also being put out to pasture.
    Eastman KodakMonday said it will stop production of Kodachrome film after a 74-year run.

    Long a staple of amateur photographers, and the first successful color film, Kodachrome was used to record millions and millions of snapshots over the years.

    It even served a starring role in an Paul Simon song of the same name, whose presciently mournful refrain goes “Mama don’t take my Kodachrome away.”

    Sadly for Simon, Kodak shareholders and thousands of former Kodak employees, Japanese competitors and digital cameras have done what Mama didn’t. Kodachrome, which accounts for less than 1% of Kodak sales, will disappear from shelves by the end of the year.

    But even worse than losing an old technological friend, the move suggests that efforts to reformat Kodak for the digital age are still a work in progress. And that can only mean more bad news for the legendary upstate New York company as it struggles to find a path through the current recession.

  80. gary says:

    Hey mor0ns, Mr. Market wins every single f*cking time. No asset has failed to revert to the means in the history of the f*cking planet. Not tulips, not shipping companies and not f*cking houses either. Sorry to disappoint you!

  81. goonsquad says:

    [78] I rented a house there on undercliff ave. for under $2k and shared it with 3 friends. It was a fun time. Where we were, street parking wasn’t much of an issue. We never needed to walk more than a couple blocks. Edgewater is an interesting mix of blue collar locals and asians. I also worked right by the GWB and the commute was a dream. I used to come home for lunch and bbq on the terrace.

  82. safeashouses says:

    #76 gary,

    Didn’t you get the memo? Granite, stainless, and pavers add at least 30% to the houses value.

  83. Sastry says:


    Anyone you know that look at the 8k as more than 8k? May be the posters here are assuming that others look at 8k as 8k*5 (20% DP) or higher?

    I remember someone fairly decent guy here implying that his credit card debt of about 10k with very low interest rate was not a debt.

    Mind can work wonders.

    Happy Belated Fathers’ Day to all…


  84. goonsquad says:

    safe, wrt your current shopping situation, wife and i are kind of in the same boat. “starter” homes are coming into the picture for us. we’re looking at some of the same towns or close eg westfield. also looking at summit, florham park.

    i wrote off maplewood for a long time without having ever been there because of the ridiculous taxes. wife and i visited a couple weeks ago for Ss and Gs. i never should have gone. the town is really nice and the commute for me is a big plus. i liked the walkable downtown.

    taxes though are off the charts. there are some houses selling in the 400s with property taxes upwards of 15k. unreal.

  85. goonsquad says:

    and fyi…wife and i are still just looking at this point. we are not swayed by the 8k incentive. if they up it to 15k i’ll be pissed. our purchasing horizon is looking toward early-mid 2010 at this point.

  86. Qwerty says:

    My how times have changed, now realtors are advocating buyers find 5 homes, make 5 offers, and see which seller wins the offer war……

    “Try finding 5 homes you could see yourself living in and make offers. We have had a lot of success with this technique. Our agents are very experienced in handling the dreaded short sales also…”

  87. zieba says:



    I am looking at exactly that area. I’ve also looked the first two-three blocks on the cliff with views (Cliffside park) but it doesn’t feel the same as being down below and I sure as hell don’t want to drive west from there into the hot mess that is the 1-9 Bergenline area. I like the fact that the town is essentially four hilly blocks anchored to a cliff.

  88. Shore Guy says:

    Make 5 offers? And if multiple ones are accepted? Does one have an out with atty review or is one opened to a specific performance suit?

  89. EWellie says:


    I know exactly what you’re saying. Houses around my area are exactly the same. They went up over 100% during the bubble, and people are still asking for bubble prices. The mentality is, “I paid 425K so I should at least get that back.” Wrong. That’s their problem. This “low market” is has still not come to Northern/Central Jersey, but people hear national coverage and assume prices won’t drop around here.

    I’m confident we can get prices to 2000/01 levels. There are many people out there who did not buy during the bubble but who will be putting houses up for sale over the next couple of years. Anyone who wants to retire out of the state will see sense and accept reasonable prices that will still be well over what they paid pre-bubble. Plus, when they take that to FL, NC, or wherever, they’ll have a nice place to live and money to spare.

  90. zieba says:

    I nursed a hangover this weekend and spent time in front of the tube…
    Did anyone notice that much of the HGTV (the real estate station) is now geared towards selling….

    I used to see shows where buyers sat by a phone waiting for acceptance calls from banks. Now, there are shows that feature staging and revolve around people purtying things up in order to unload. Pie in the sky prices have been replaced by buy price + additions = price I need to unload at to break even.

  91. Clotpoll says:

    gary (70)-

    You hooked on pork rinds yet?

  92. kettle1 says:


    the mentality of many smart people i know are similar to what you just said. I know a few very “smart” people who still cling to the debt as leverage idea without considering the other half of the equation. many will never accept the reality of the current situation and a reversion to mean simply because the refuse to believe that things could “get that bad”

  93. EWellie says:


    That cape is adorable. Why don’t you offer them 260K? I dare you!

  94. Clotpoll says:

    frank (72)-

    Bonuses paid by the world’s biggest bucket shop- out of monies siphoned from J6P- are not evidence of anything.

    GS and the US gubmint are both ongoing criminal enterprises.

  95. Clotpoll says:

    goon (85)-

    Not to mention that if you want to venture into many parts of that town, it will require you to invest in your own personal goonsquad.

  96. gary says:

    clotpoll [91],

    I prefer barbecue potato chips myself but I’m still having difficulty deciding on which brand of grape soda I like the best.

  97. Qwerty says:

    RE: “Make 5 offers? And if multiple ones are accepted? Does one have an out with atty review”

    Far as I know NJ law says Attorney Review is 3 days and either party can walk away from the deal no questions asked.

  98. goonsquad says:

    [95], clot,

    While in Maplewood, I stuck to the nicer areas of town toward the west. we drove due east through irvington to get to the airport and it’s a warzone.

    Drving through the east part of Maplewood, it seemed nice enough. As I understand, there is a small property crime issue due to the proximity to irvington but that violent crime is pretty low compared with the rest of the state. Houses in Maplewood are definitely cheaper than their NJ transit train town brethren. With the difference in taxes though, I’m figuring they need to be at least 70k differend (for a 450k house) for it to be worth it. And then there’s the fact that property taxes never decrease and are in effect tied to inflation whereas sale price is fixes.

  99. chicagofinance says:

    Booya Bob has officially been rendered obsolete…….

    gary says:
    June 22, 2009 at 11:14 am

    See, here’s the type of the thing that really burns my f*cking @ss to no end. The f*cking sellers bought this house for 435K in 2002 and they think they deserve a price tag of 799K after dropping it from 819K. No, wrong. Sorry! F*ck You! The house should be listed at around 575K, not some made-up dream f*cking price that you came up with because you have stars in your f*cking eyes. Drop dead! Dear seller, tick… tick…. tick…. tick…

  100. John says:

    nice 6 bedroom 100K colonial 40 miinutes from Penn, bring your gun

  101. John says:

    Grape soda has a lot of blue dye in it, if you drink too many cans your body can’t process blue dye and gets passed straight through, now bile is yellow. Blue + yellow is green, so when you poop and pee it will come out bright green. Even better the clorophil in green veggies and Iron can can also cause green poop.

    Next time you annoyimg brother in law comes by give him spinich high in iron and green, couple of green veggies and a few grape sodas, after he hits the crapper he ain’t coming back he will be so scared.

    gary says:
    June 22, 2009 at 11:48 am
    clotpoll [91],

    I prefer barbecue potato chips myself but I’m still having difficulty deciding on which brand of grape soda I like the best.

  102. Sastry says:

    #92… And disclaimer from my side too. I looked at 4x margin on Ameritrade as the amount that I could risk! And did I risk! Explaining that to wife and facing the consequences was … well, “miserable” does not begin to start explaining it.


  103. relo says:


    How dare you! That is in THE CLUB!! It’ll sit. Did you noticwe the two bi-levels mentioned recently (New England and Boca or something like that?) are off MLS? Under contract?

  104. gman says:


    I totally hear ya. $799k for that hunk of sh#t! Totally not worth it. Sad thing is the house will probably be sold to someone that will end up in foreclosure in two years. They Barack will bail them out with our money.

  105. John says:

    Speaking of HGTV, why is it you always have to bring in a gay guy to spruce up your home to get top dollar. Do buyers have gaydar?

  106. Clotpoll says:

    sastry (103)-

    Might I suggest that it’s a great time to double down on SRS? Or perhaps you’d like to take down a nice chunk of FAZ on margin? :)

    The chart on it today looks like back in the halcyon days of Sept/Oct.

  107. 3b says:

    #93mean simply because the refuse to believe that things could “get that bad”

    You mean that good.

  108. kettle1 says:


    from yesterday regarding inflation

    In U.S. households alone, the losses have been massive: massive: $1.39 trillion in the third and fourth quarters of 2007 (not shown on page 105) … a gigantic $10.89 trillion in 2008 … $1.33 trillion in the first quarter of 2009 … $13.87 trillion in all, by far the worst of all time.

    Bottom line: The first quarter brought the greatest credit collapse of all time.

  109. Silera says:

    The Mike Aubrey show is pretty good, Real Estate Intervention.

    I saw one last night which was slightly dissapointing because he recommended they rent out the place. The owners couldn’t bring money to the table at closing though, so unless you can get short sale approval, as a homeowner aren’t you simply up against the wall and forced into renting?

  110. John (102)-

    Those are the informations I continue coming here for. You make fascinating points.

    Keep up the good work.

  111. Wondering if we should have a “Write Like Spambots” day. Perhaps those of similar thinking should offer their fascinating opinions here.

  112. #112 – Thanks for the great post! I’ll definitely be bookmarking your blog. Keep up the great work!

  113. kettle1(spambot) says:

    A new study shows that the smell of spam in a home during an open house can increase the sales price by 20%! It also found that hanging a plague of the “for sale” sign advertising the 8K tax credit for home purchases increased the number of potential bag holders viewing the home by an additional 15%! E-mail me now to learn additional secrets of the SPAM house flipping method that will guarantee you sell for higher then anyone in your neighborhood!

  114. still_looking says:

    gary –

    :) I’m with Chifi on this one.

    Maybe you always were Booyah Bob?


  115. still_looking says:

    another way to think of it is as a “loss leader,” since the gov’t takes a small up front loss in order to chain you into a much more valuable obligation.


    YES! Anything to suck the unwitting back into the vortex.


  116. gary says:

    still_looking [116],

    Booyah was the master, I’m just a grasshopper! :)

  117. still_looking says:

    Off to work….

    see everyone later.

    Happy Belated Father’s Days to all the dads.

    Teach all of them to be smarter than sheep and to think for themselves.


  118. still_looking says:

    gary, 118

    Well, what a stellar grasshopper you are!

    Keep up with the chopsticks/fly, hot iron cauldron/tattoos, and all the good kung-fu stuff…

    Stay away from Bangkok though….


  119. John says:

    “The best that can be said of the market is that house price corrections and steep cuts in housing production are creating the conditions that will lead to an eventual recovery,” added Eric Belsky, executive director of the Joint Center.

  120. 3b says:

    gary; For some people 2005 is still alive and well. The listing below can still be yours, but you have to hurry, hurry, all for 629k,with a 10K a year tax bill.

  121. relo says:

    122: wow, imagie if it had 2ba.

  122. John says:

    At that price it better have a golden shower!

    relo says:
    June 22, 2009 at 1:19 pm
    122: wow, imagie if it had 2ba.

  123. Seneca says:

    38 DOM
    OLP 649,000
    LP 625,000
    SP 602,700

    Last previous sale was in Feb 04 for 590,000.

    0.4% appreciation per year. See, Westfield DOES retain its value.

  124. 3b says:

    #124 relo: Oh probably another 100k, easy.

  125. John says:

    Actually speaking of golden showers, way way back when I was 18 we went to a rauncy men’s club, it was a juice bar actually cause no one would give them a liquir license, but they would let you bring you own bottle of vodka etc and they would provide the set up. Anyhow they had an actual golden shower there, they would give you a poncho and with your head sticking out and the stripper would literally climb up top and pee on your head while everyone watched. Now I have been to lots of strange places but I say New York in the early 1980s was about as weird as it got.

  126. John says:

    Lucas Glover, the co-leader entering today, parred the 18th hole to clinch the 109th U.S. Open at Bethpage Black.

    Glover (4-under) took a two-shot lead into the final hole and after Ricky Barnes missed his birdie chance moments earlier to take the pressure off, calmly tapped in his par putt for the championship.

  127. sl (115)-

    Thanks. That was the first thing I read today, as ZH also picked it up & ran it.

    It is also an absolute outrage.

  128. veto that - Internet Marketing says:

    ha ha. you funny
    wow! I likey information i get with your blog. subscribe me yes. this great place for learn!

  129. And this guy was supposed to be a smart cookie:

    Associated Press

    MIAMI — “Former NFL and Miami Hurricanes star quarterback Bernie Kosar has filed for bankruptcy protection in Miami.

    Kosar’s Chapter 11 filing Friday lists assets between $1 million and $10 million and liabilities of between $10 million and $50 million.

    Kosar owes almost $1.5 million in “unsecured debt” to the Cleveland Browns, who he played for from 1985 to 1993. Kosar also owes his ex-wife Babette $3 million and $725,000 (from a personal loan) to the owner of the Cleveland Gladiators of the Arena Football League. He owes a bank more than $9 million for bad real estate deals.

    The 45-year-old Kosar got divorced in 2007 and last year saw his steakhouse go out of business.

    Kosar, who also played for Dallas and Miami, retired from the NFL in 1996.”

  130. PGC says:

    GS is paying record bonuses to appease the boatload of people they are shipping to Utah.

  131. veto that - Internet Marketing says:

    Russia Stocks Fall 20% in World’s First Bear Market Since March

    June 22 (Bloomberg) — Russia’s Micex Index tumbled more than 20 percent from its 2009 peak, becoming the world’s first benchmark equity index to enter a bear market since global stocks began rallying in March.

  132. John says:

    How many times were Bernie on the wrong side of history?. He was on the losing sideline when Frank Reich led Maryland to the greatest comeback in NCAA history, bringing the Terps back from a 31-0 hole at the half for a 42-40 stunner over Miami in 1984, and when Doug Flutie launched his famous, Heisman-clinching Hail Mary to push Boston College past the ‘Canes in the Orange Bowl later that year. Kosar was on the losing sideline when John Elway took the Broncos 98 yards on “The Drive” to win the ’86 AFC Championship, and handed Ernest Byner the ball he would infamously lose three yards shy of the tying touchdown at the end of the ’87 AFC Championship. The Browns trailed Denver by a field goal at the start of the fourth quarter before falling short again in ’89. The man has known his share of disappointment.

  133. reynon says:

    #85 goon. in the same boat with u. live in summit for a few years renting and just watching for an opportunity. enjoying all the benefits without the cost. commercial re is just in tatters. take drive through downtown summit and you’ll see for yourself.

    first time posting but long time follower of the site. i still see more pain to come. i’ve seen a house on the market, through different hands, on the market for 3 years. i told my wife i’ll know we’re at a bottom when this thing sells. no takers yet.

    don’t bet too much on echo boomers. i know many and not only are they dillusional they don’t have a pot to piss in when it comes to down payment and responsibly financing the purchase (myself being the exception happy to stay on the sidelines).

    looked at 350K place in south oragne. dillusional assesment at 700 with 17K taxes. realtor said, you can always appeal. i said, no thanks… move on. my wife thank god is happy to concede these decisions to me.

  134. JBJB says:

    Kosar just suffers from the Cleveland Sports Curse, known in some parts as the Curse of Chief Wahoo.

  135. Clotpoll says:

    Reynon (135)-

    If your handle is a tribute to Chateau Reynon, big props to you.

  136. Clotpoll says:

    Why can’t that arsehole Dan Marino go broke?

  137. Clotpoll says:

    Cleveland is just cursed, period.

    That burg is ripe for a daisy cutter.

  138. reynon says:

    indeed it is. thanks clot.

  139. Seneca says:

    Long squeeze? Beware the 2pm buyer? Or did he close up shop?

  140. JBJB says:

    “Why can’t that arsehole Dan Marino go broke?”

    I bet he still has some nice royalties on those Isotoner Gloves commercials.

  141. Clotpoll says:

    30 minutes until JPM’s trading day begins.

  142. confused in NJ says:

    Looks like the Drug Companies bought Obama with their Donut Hole proposal, which is in lieu of the Government actually negotiating Drug Prices. Nobody is talking about the Drug Costs here, subsidizing the rest of the world, anymore. The Demapublicans are all owned by Corporate International.

  143. DLbot says:

    This site to make great for glorious profits. Best houses for selling on internet. Watch.

  144. HEHEHE says:

    Reports of Economy’s Recovery Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

    “This Time, It’s Different

    Ben Bernanke’s career will be analyzed and written about for many years. But the one thing that’s caused me the most pain is his bringing the term “green shoots” into the investment lexicon. These may be the 2 most overused and annoying words I’ve encountered in my investment career. Every possible sign of a recovery is described in this way.

    Analysts have lately tended to interpret numbers or statistics that are “less bad” as signs of recovery. They glance back at previous recoveries and say, “Now looks like then. When such and such happens, it means that recovery is on the way. Therefore, we should buy stocks (or whatever).”

    Being an investor means being condemned to read such things. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take the time to look at what the writer is referring to. All too often, I find people grasping at straws or failing to understand the data.

    First, I’m calling attention to the heresy “This time, it’s different” represents, because the economic landscape has changed so fundamentally that comparisons with post-World War II recoveries are problematic at best and misleading at worst.

    We’re on a track that looks far more like the Great Depression than the recessions of our lifetimes. To expect a normal recovery cycle — whether it’s corporate profits, lending, consumer spending, capital investment, or any other — just isn’t reasonable. This is a period that’s different in so many ways. And the recovery — and there will be one!– will also be of a different warp and woof throughout the entire world economy.”

  145. goonsquad says:

    [135] reynon,

    i’m enjoying the benefits of renting in weehawken. i hate the area–just tired of it. i miss having my own yard, space, bbqing, etc. the only benefit i’m really enjoying at this point is the ability to save a lot with cheap rent. i’m considering a move to the burbs to rent but this means that i can’t purchase until ~1 year from now.

  146. HEHEHE says:


    The JPM post lunch buy SPY countdown 21 minutes and counting.

  147. HEHEHE says:

    Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years

    June 22 (Bloomberg) — Executives at U.S. companies are taking advantage of the biggest stock-market rally in 71 years to sell their shares at the fastest pace since credit markets started to seize up two years ago.

    Insiders of Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies were net sellers for 14 straight weeks as the gauge rose 36 percent, data compiled by show. Amgen Inc. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Kevin Sharer and five other officials sold $8.2 million of stock. Christopher Donahue, the CEO of Federated Investors Inc., and his brother, Chief Financial Officer Thomas Donahue, offered the most in three years.

  148. syncmaster says:

    Question about Warren County: Any reason Washington Township in Warren County is so affordable?

  149. traveljerk123 says:

    alri Secondary Market, wont double tip for sure :-) .. that’ll save a few bucks

  150. Comrade nom deplume says:

    [139] clot

    “That burg is ripe for a daisy cutter.”

    Or several. Let’s not forget the parasitical suburbs of that festering morass.

  151. kettle1 says:


    you have mail

  152. Will V. says:

    zieba, There is a nice show there on HGTV that is starting to get traction, it is called real estate intervention. It focuses on how people think that they can still get the prices that they once thought they could get for their house. Yesterday they had this couple thinking they could get 449K for thier home and others were quoting that it should go for 350 to 375K, the host of the show suggested that they sell for 415K, they decided to rent it instead of taking a loss. they bought the home with 100% financing in 2004 and wanted to walk a way with a few bills in their pocket, I guess it did not work out for them. the show comes on at 10:30 on Thursday night with repeats sprinkled throughout the week.

  153. still_looking says:

    Can you send us info on MLS#: 2923509 ?

    Thanks in advance,

    Mr. still_looking

  154. james says:

    Gerald Celente says prepare for greatest of all depression. If he says so I will do the guy has rarely been wrong.

    What you see in Iran is coming to the US soon.

  155. Comrade nom deplume says:

    [156] james

    Which is why we are preparing for it.

  156. Comrade nom deplume says:

    Here’s the next industry that will attract the federal regulator’s eye:

  157. Qwerty says:

    Anyone have feedback on Llewellyn Park in West Orange?

  158. Clotpoll says:

    james (156)-

    Nah. Most Americans don’t have the gumption or guts to protest.

    Just give them soda and chips and prop them up in front of a TV, and all is well.

  159. Clotpoll says:

    qwerty (159)-

    Be sure to budget to send your kids to Seton Hall Prep when you move there.

  160. reynon says:

    #147 goon. i wasn’t that far away. hoboken then jersey city for a while. summit turned up by chance. had to move because my allergies couldn’t handle the 24×7 construction in jc. happened that friend moved to summit and we gave it a try.

    here we’re paying rent for what is likely at the higher end of summit (but not much more than hudson prices). but have a nice private space for bbq (trees and areas to plant flowers), 3 floors, private garage, great neighbors, and walking distance to the center of town with some great restaurants and great wine shop (hence my handle). in all,it’s been pretty good and have not regretted the decision.

    having said that, we’ve been shopping around for a house with the backyard and space for a garden. but at present am happy to bide my time waiting for some opp to come along. alot of the town is well off, and the rest are aspirational having gotten there before the re boom. i’d suspect some decline witnessed by props sitting on the market for a long time and adjustments in employment due to the recession, but not as hard as some other areas pointed to on this blog. and this goes to the higher as well as lower end of the markets. again, this is anecdotal based on driving around town.

    would recommend you take a visit to see the area. seen alot of houses sit on the market at all levels. have certainly seen alot of rentals increase in the area.

    commercial re in this town seems to be much worse. i’ve seen steady increases in vacancies. new projects are coming online without existing spots occupied. projects have been stopped periodically. i don’t know if this has any effect on residential re but one has to wonder how it impacts the cities budget.

    hope some of this is helpful.

  161. safeashouses says:

    goonsquad and reynon,

    I’ve gone from renting a 2 bedroom townhouse to a 3 bedroom cape for the same monthly payment. We are going to rent a nicer house next for even less then we are currently paying. hopefully next spirng/summer prices will become a lot more rational.

    If we had bought a house when we moved back to this area in Feb 07 we would be stretched to make the monthly payment and way underwater. By renting and waiting 3 to 4 years we get to have some money to enjoy life with and watch the carnage.

  162. John says:

    That is not true at all, years ago when they wanted to phase out rent control for people making over 100K in NYC my friend drove his porsche 911 convert (triple black btw) all the way to Albany to protest. He even walked around with a picket sign.

    Clotpoll says:
    June 22, 2009 at 3:02 pm
    james (156)-

    Nah. Most Americans don’t have the gumption or guts to protest.

    Just give them soda and chips and prop them up in front of a TV, and all is well.

  163. james says:


    If no protests, then secession movements.

  164. Scott says:

    I agree with Mr. and Mrs. Rust. There are too many variables involved to justify buying for them. If you are waiting on a 40% drop as Deutsche claims, dream on. The opportunity cost right now is favorable to buyers

  165. gman says:

    gerald celente is da man.

  166. kettle1 says:


    I am with clot. Most Americans are too soft and DHS and the like will probably be smart enough to target the core protesters pretty quickly and with extreme prejudice… The average american would be to the point of protest until it is way to late. They are sold on the happy american portrait of the nuclear family with the suburbia oasis and the 9-5. Who cares about some 200 yr old piece of paper, its time for american idol. hand me a coke while your up.

  167. james says:

    Well I agree with the point that Americans are soft especially in the North East and Pacific coast. I am going with Mr Celente’s predictions. The guy is amazing.

  168. jcer says:

    Llewellyn Park is very nice, some great old mansions. Unfortunately high taxes, LP has fees, bad schools, close to urban ghetto(Not such a problem it is gated). You need to get a heck of a low price for it to make sense as the carry will kill you. I haven’t seen anything there at an attractive price, given the cost of carry.

  169. kettle1 says:


    I have been calling for a great depression level event for the last year + so i am most definitely in the same camp.

  170. Sastry says:

    Clot #107…

    You won’t believe, but my wife put in a bit of money in SEP IRA, and it’s still sitting as cash for the last four months. Of course, I am not complaining… There is some peace after going through a lot of sh!t. May be the couple of months of of SSIR did the trick — Stu would differ…


  171. Stu says:


    Just nearby is Edison’s factory. Right next to the world’s first movie studio (which rotated to harness the sun) is a large cement block that might be the safest location in NJ to survive a nuclear bomb blast. Apparently, Thomas was a bit of a freak and had a terrible fear of bombs. He built this shelter to calm his fears.

  172. chicagofinance says:

    John says:
    June 22, 2009 at 1:20 pm
    At that price it better have a golden shower!
    relo says:
    June 22, 2009 at 1:19 pm
    122: wow, imagie if it had 2ba.

    JJ: didn’t Howard Stern accuse Bob Guccione of having a gold toilet bowl?

  173. Joey says:

    Scott (166),

    Please sell me a house right away. I don’t want to miss out on this golden opportunity. Real Estate only goes up, right?

  174. reynon says:

    i share your views. we’ve found a nice place to be in for a while. not looking to move just because we like the area and hate moving. having said that, i haven’t budged in my stance for the last 3 years that this was the biggest bubble of all time waiting to pop, so i’m not inclined to get into this racket that soon. i was a dark horse in the family when i said 3 years ago that it was not an opportunity to buy (mind you, my i’m one of those who are inclined to buy only for the long haul, no trade ups for me). i had to take alot of crap for that. equally happy to wait a while, when the re function seems more normal… ie inputs interest rates, supply, down payments, and income become more in line with historical averages.

    my investments have faired much better in this time. just watching the events unfold and being very opportunistic.

  175. gary says:

    james [156],

    Except in Bergen County, they’re insulated. In fact, I heard that if a chunk of rock the size of Uzbekistan hit the earth, BC would still hold their value because of desirability despite the fact that there will be no more sunlight or life on the planet as we know it.

  176. Seneca says:

    JPM hit the wrong button?

  177. veto that says:

    ha ha. yes. The site is great!
    i like the funny.
    i wished i knew earlier.
    where sign up?

  178. Stu says:

    I never ever thought I would be jealous of renters having been one for 18 straight years until I bought in Montclair. :P

  179. veto that says:

    srs finally back up above my entry point of 22.
    Sheesh. that was a long wait. I was almost sweating when it was hovering near 18.

  180. NJGator says:

    Some anectdata from Stu’s and my recent fact finding trip to the Essex County Board of Taxation:

    Plenty of folks appealing who puchased in 06 or 07. These folks ha sweetheart assessments – signficantly below their purchase price and all are openly claiming to be bagholders without any equity.Folks we saw all had paid north of $800k for their properties.

    Most folks came woefully unprepared and could not answer basic questions about their own square footage or the numbers of bedrooms/bathrooms/lot size of their comps. The town attorney particularly made a mockery of the woman who attempted to rely on for all her own information.

    The town did immediately offer settlements to folks who presented a logical and coherent case.

    Last year I was flattered when the town attorney called me the most prepared pro se litigant he ever dealt with. Now I realize that it just means my neighbors are a bunch of idiots.

  181. kettle1 says:


    are we now measuring the size of extraterrestrial bodies in Uzbekistans?

    that would put the moon at about 8.4X10^102 uzbekistans ;0

  182. Clotpoll says:

    qwerty (169)-

    Slumdog W Orange.

  183. Clotpoll says:

    satry (173)-

    SRS and FXP are pulling out of the station. Load up while you can. :)

    Disclaimer: I am only pulling Sastry’s leg. Only bi should be consulted for legitimate investment advice.

  184. Clotpoll says:

    veto (182)-

    Every day of SRS ownership is a white-knuckler.

  185. chicagofinance says:

    More information that paints conspiracy theories about Goldman Sachs/AIG/Paulson as naive paranoia and rage searching for an outlet, rather than a dispassionate review of the facts. Common sense dictates that GS are simply intelligent, well-positioned and cold-blooded contract killers using whatever tactics that are necessary, and nothing more.

  186. Clotpoll says:

    gator (183)-

    In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

  187. NJGator says:

    Oh and re 183 – every case repped by an attorney settled before hearing.

  188. NJGator says:

    Clot 189 – I am the one-eyed king. Woo hoo!

  189. veto that says:

    Every day of SRS ownership is a white-knuckler.

    im supposedly using it to hedge the 20% slice of my long term portfolio presently dedicated to equities but i just cant help myself from cheering srs rallies like a 20 year old who just threw down his lunch money at the otb…

  190. reinvestor101 the impostor says:

    You were warned this day would come.

  191. gary says:

    reinvestor101 [193],

    Move to Upper Bergen County, you’ll be safe and unharmed.

  192. Clotpoll says:

    veto (192)-

    Try being naked long SRS. That’s more action than a few jollies at OTB.

    More like the revolver scene in The Deer Hunter.

  193. veto that says:

    VIX Soars as Signs Increase For Summertime Stock Blues

    Wall Street’s favorite fear gauge soared more than 13 percent Monday, reflecting trader sentiment that the stock market is likely to move lower.

  194. scribe says:

    Did you gunslingers miss this one in today’s NYT?

    Our Towns
    When Fear and Fury Drive Gun Sales

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    Published: June 21, 2009


    At the Bullet Hole, an Essex County gun store, and at Gun for Hire,across the street, where Anthony Colandro offers courses in firearm use, martial arts and personal safety, it’s the best of times and the worst of times.

  195. Clotpoll says:

    JPM no likey SPY no more?

    Mmmm, SPY…Jamie love you long time.

    Note today’s conspicuous absence of bi.

  196. scribe says:

    whoops, sorry for the computer garbage

  197. Clotpoll says:

    .vix + SRS run = happy Clotpoll

    Feeling very 9/08 lately. Can’t wait until we get back to the point where you can do a week’s worth of trading 5 minutes before the closing bell.

    Good times.

  198. Sastry says:

    Gator #183…

    Wife called the tax assessor — we are supposed to follow up this week. They sort of said they are open to reducing!

    We’ll just state the facts, be courteous, and have all the documents, and put the ball in their court. Let’s see how it turns out. Of course, as you said earlier, the assessment will come into effect only next year — if any changes are made.


  199. veto that says:

    clot, 195 – thats quite a portfolio you’ve constructed for yourself. reminds me of John’s ira.
    you are starting to frighten the children now. i’ll have to watch your moves more carefully on these here boards so i can follow suite.

  200. veto that says:

    “whoops, sorry for the computer garbage”

    Scribe, 197 –
    no need to aplogize. today’s theme is bot impersonations anyway.

  201. NJGator says:

    Sastry 202 – Good luck!

  202. confused in NJ says:

    189. Clotpoll says:
    June 22, 2009 at 4:03 pm
    gator (183)-

    In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king

    In Washington DC the Sighted Man is burned as a Heretic.

  203. Comrade nom deplume says:

    [197] scribe

    Old news. When the One started getting traction in the polls, that’s when I put in my stock-up orders, and got that .223 I always wanted.

  204. John says:,0,484543.photogallery

    did something happen today on wall street today? I was too busy checking out celeberty dog sightings in the hamptoms.

  205. Comrade nom deplume says:

    I just got a letter from opposing counsel at a firm in PA that I never heard of. But their website URL is…

    Wait for it ….

    I am not making this up . . .

  206. Comrade nom deplume says:

    [208] John,

    How could anything happen? You weren’t there.

  207. John says:

    You could be right, without my cheerleading the dow fell. Actually, very busy today checking out new 7 series, selling Jet tickers and eating sesame chicken, there is only so many hours in the day you know.

    Comrade nom deplume says:
    June 22, 2009 at 4:41 pm
    [208] John,

    How could anything happen? You weren’t there.

  208. HEHEHE says:

    JPM and GS did their part forcing the short squeeze, allowing every company in America that wanted to do a secondary offering to do one, and the insiders to dump their shares.

    Now it’s time to get those mortgage rates down and put a bid back under treasuries. Say goodbye to your worldwide stock market rally.

  209. schabadoo says:

    id anyone notice that much of the HGTV (the real estate station) is now geared towards selling….

    Maybe you caught Sun morn? That’s their extended realtor commercial.

    Sat morn is ‘fix your house in an afternoon with two friends’.

  210. HEHEHE says:

    Congress Still Working Against Housing Recovery

  211. John says:

    Equity holders in banks are bag holders, get cash in door to support future losses, capital requirements and bond prices. Stock price ain’t that important now, bonds are the new equity. Bet on the survival with the common shareholders cash acting as a safety net.

    HEHEHE says:
    June 22, 2009 at 4:46 pm
    JPM and GS did their part forcing the short squeeze, allowing every company in America that wanted to do a secondary offering to do one, and the insiders to dump their shares.

    Now it’s time to get those mortgage rates down and put a bid back under treasuries. Say goodbye to your worldwide stock market rally.

  212. Qwerty says:

    RE: “checking out new 7 series”

    Walk past the M5 to slide into that boat?

    Don’t be a girlie man.

  213. morpheus says:

    I saw the show too. I so wanted to bitch slap that couple into the middle of next week! The level of denial was annoying.

    Let’s hope they vetted their tenants and did not end up renting to a bunch of meth addicts who set up a meth lab in their rental!

  214. jcer says:

    Chifi, yes sometimes the GS thing is blown out of proportion. But lets face facts, they pretty dishonest, bordering on illegal. The culture is very interesting, they are paranoid about everything and try to ensure there is really no record of what goes on, email and phone are not used lightly by any GS employees. That makes me a little suspicious. They have a connection into the gov’t. and it seems they are using it. The way I look at the AIG situation no matter what, GS would have posted a bigger loss. The thing I find most interesting is that GS and BS were largely in the same boat and if it were not for superior reputation and government connections I think GS could have gone down.

    Goldman is not smarter merely better at lying, cheating, and stealing. They are so good at deception even their employees believe the garbage they are fed. Anytime something doesn’t seem kosher there chances are they had a backdoor meeting. Don’t tell me they are not gaming their own ratings.

  215. cobbler says:

    safeashouses [74]
    Re. 100% increase from 2002-2005. Look at New Prov., Berk.Hts and Mountainside. They went up much less in 2002-2005 because the timeframe coinsided with mass layoffs from the Bell Labs; as current drop is the same as elsewhere you get a better deal than in say Livingston.

  216. HEHEHE says:

    “The way I look at the AIG situation no matter what, GS would have posted a bigger loss”

    That’s ok, they would have dumped it into their Dec 2008 losses which magically dissappeared when they changed their reporting calendar.

  217. Ben says:

    the call to short oil was official once GS announced it was going to $85. That’s their speak for “we are secretly shorting it behind closed doors”.

  218. Shore Guy says:

    Who knew sheetrock wall could be “features”? They come from a listing we looked at in NC.

    Interior Features
    Cathedral Ceilings, Carpet, Vinyl, Sheetrock Walls,

  219. Shore Guy says:

    Anyone see tht Clarence’s place is for sale?

  220. Shore Guy says:

    It is a bit overpriced, otherwise we might have looked at it. He seems to be looking for a $200,000 bump based on who he is. Nice place, but not that nice. It looks like the new Mrs. doesn’t want to live in the old Mrs.’s home.

  221. Clotpoll says:

    Sell in June, and go to hell.

    Here comes the dump cycle.

  222. chicagofinance says:

    Shore Guy says:
    June 22, 2009 at 6:03 pm
    It looks like the new Mrs. doesn’t want to live in the old Mrs.’s home.

    Shore: A colleague in my office worked at Danny’s Steakhouse as a waitress when she was a teenager. I vaguely remember her mentioning (1) that CC once either owned or partially owned the place about 30 years ago; & (2) he was a serious Major League a%%hole….

  223. RentingStrong says:

    The wife and I were at my family’s home this weekend.

    We were the only ones there that are still renting. For about an hour we were being hammered by everyone telling us that we’re pretty much stupid for continuing to rent and that we’re going to miss the deal of a lifetime here in North NJ when it comes to homes.

    Some couples there bought homes during the peak and even after admitting that their homes have lost tens of thousands of dollars and they’re in the middle of refinancing a lower rate continue to say we’re doing wrong.

    I just don’t get people sometimes.

  224. Safeashouses says:

    #222 Shore guy

    Could be a way to claim it’s drywall is made in the US and not China.

    I never had a thing for Chinese drywall. A Chinese hummer is a whole different story.

  225. cli says:

    goon and reynon

    I am renting in Summit as well. My wife and I moved to Summit last year.

    I like the town but I just don’t like the commute even a lot of people may think the commute from Summit to midtown NY is good. There are just 2 express train in the morning and it will take 40-50 minute to arrive at NY penn.

    I have been looking at houses in bergen county. Well, it’s is really hard to find a decent town with decent school but with better commute.

  226. willwork4beer says:

    #150 syncmaster

    There’s nothing really wrong with Washington Twp in Warren County. A lot of it is still rural so if you like that, its a plus. But the schools don’t have as good a reputation as those just over the county line in Hunterdon and the taxes are high for the area. The township surrounds Washington Boro which has its not so nice parts. The commute might look good on a map, but if you’re trying to get to 78, Route 31 is one lane in each direction through Glen Gardner. It stacks up like crazy every rush hour.

    Bottom line is it depends on your circumstances. Go visit and see if its to your liking.

    Disclaimer: I am not a real estate professional. I know much more about beer than I know about real estate.

  227. Safeashouses says:

    #228 rentingstrong

    It’s called denial. People are unwilling to admit they made a mistake.

    Or they have been brainwashed by the media.

    Or are clueless.

  228. goonsquad says:

    [230] cli, that’s why i looked at maplewood. it’s a tad closer as i’m sure you know. but the schools are not neearly as good as i’m sure you also know. and the taxes…ugh

  229. GerryAdams says:

    sync 150/ 231 willwork –

    Does Washington Township go to West Morris-Mendham, 9-12? Good school. Nice deal for Washington since Chester and Mendham are very affluent. They have a send-receive relationship that could only happen in NJ, from what I have read. I am in complete agreement on the commute – insane south on 31. Plus, there is/was a go-go bar in town too. I saw a very nice house on the cheap years ago but passed for a smaller place in Bridgewater. Factor in the cost of the commute too.

    Disclaimer: do not know much about real estate, but can tell you where to get the best brew in NJ. Trap Rock in Berkley Heights.

  230. willwork4beer says:

    #234 Gerry

    I think you might be thinking of Washington Twp, Morris County, on the school issue.

    On the go-go bar issue, I hear there is a place south of town on route 31.

    Not that I’ve ever been there… ;)

  231. GerryAdams says:

    After reading their website and wikipedia, West Morris SD appears to include all five towns – chester, chester boro, mendham, mendham boro and Washington Township, 9-12. The towns pay by number of students as well as equalization value. IN essence, the richer towns pay more per student. Would like to see the numbers.

    People read that municipalities have to honor OPRA requests via email?

  232. syncmaster says:

    Yes, Washington in Morris is different from Washington in Warren. My question was about Washington in Warren.

    Thanks for the feedback so far, guys.

  233. Sean says:

    How is this for the government rigging the market?

  234. grim says:

    Interesting piece over at Barry’s joint:

    Continuing Claims “Exhaustion Rate”

    Those of you (who can still afford the luxury of) a trusty Bloomberg will note the ‘exhaustion rate’ for jobless benefits – EXHTRATE – reveals that people are not leaving the pool of continuing unemployment claims because they are getting new jobs; Rather, they are leaving because they have exhausted their benefits.

    They are now unemployed AND broke. That is hardly a green shoot . . .

  235. GerryAdams says:

    Oops. I was thinking about Washington in warren county, north of High Bridge and Glen Gardiner. For the life of me I never knew there was one just two towns over in Morris county. Funny thing is I have biked through Morris’s Washington a few times.

    I always wondered why kids from Warren county went to Morris county schools.

    Sorry for the confusion. Is that you would take 206 to 287 to 78, not 31 to 78. The bad news is the traffic is as bad if not worse on 206 at rush hour.

  236. GerryAdams says:

    edit post 240
    *If so, then you would take…

  237. syncmaster says:

    I was thinking about Washington in warren county, north of High Bridge and Glen Gardiner.

    Yes, that’s the Washington I’m talking about. There’s another Washington in Morris. And yes, if I lived in Washington in Warren I’d take 31 to 78.

    I guess I have to go into the area myself and see for myself. I’ve heard from others that the town is “run down” and a little trashy.

  238. willwork4beer says:


    Re: Washington Boro.
    Not so nice was my way of being diplomatic…

    You can take the back roads to 78 but believe me, you’ll have lots of company.

  239. syncmaster says:

    “Not so nice” is relative, my idea of a bad neighborhood is the worst parts of Plainfield or New Brunswick. That’s the vicinity of where I live right now. Are we talking similarly “not so nice” or much better than that?

  240. willwork4beer says:


    Its a LOT better than Plainfield or NB. But you do SO much better inside of a short drive.

  241. willwork4beer says:

    #240 Gerry

    There are five Washington Townships in NJ. Bergen, Morris, Warren, Mercer and Gloucester Counties.

  242. syncmaster says:

    Sastry #52,


  243. syncmaster says:

    willwork4beer #246/247,

    Got it. Budget’s a concern of course, hits in Warren Cty in my price range seem to gravitate towards Washington on the low end and Mansfield/Hack on the high end.

    Also, the Washinton in mercer has renamed itself to Robbinsville.

  244. scribe says:

    When, where is the GTG this Friday?

    Is that still on?

  245. Stu says:


    If SRS hits 100 by Friday, beers are on me.

  246. grim says:

    GTG is on!

    I’m thinking Office in Ridgewood, Gary suggested Houlihans on 4 West in Paramus.

    I’m hoping Rich can chime in with a recommendation, or SL too.

    Absolutely needs a good beer selection, preferably someplace with a good bar area that can accommodate.

  247. 3b says:

    #166 scott:The opportunity cost right now is favorable to buyers.

    What exactly does that mean? And what makes you think you know any better than the Deutsche people?

  248. kettle1 says:

    hey, china figured out how to solve unemployment….

    BEIJING — China expects more than 40 million people to be unemployed in 2009 and wants to tackle the problem by training more to become housekeepers, state media has reported.

    The government’s jobless forecast, reported by the Beijing News, comes after several warnings that the global financial crisis has had a serious impact on the nation’s trade-dependent economy.

    To address the problem of growing unemployment, the government has unveiled a plan to train large numbers of housekeepers, the paper reported. It pointed out that there is an estimated shortfall of more than 10 million housekeepers in the Chinese economy.

  249. 3b says:

    #228 rentingstrong:I just don’t get people sometimes.

    It’s twofold.

    1. Misery loves company.

    2. People hate to admit there wrong.

  250. willwork4beer says:

    #249 syncmaster

    Basically, the farther you get from Phillipsburg, the higher the price.

    Re: Robbinsville – You’re right, I forgot they changed their name recently. Probably still suffering from PTSD from all the tickets I used to get there on 195…

  251. safeashouses says:

    What is wrong with people?

    “Three year old girl beheaded over land dispute”

  252. grim says:

    From Clickz:

    Razorfish Cuts 10 Percent of New York City Staff

    Razorfish continues to pare its staff as the recession chugs along. The digital ad agency laid off about 10 percent of its Manhattan-based staff earlier this month. The company cited the economic downturn as a main reason for the layoffs.

    “Razorfish, like most companies in our industry has been reacting to the recession,” Razorfish Marketing Director David Deal told ClickZ News.

    Deal also suggested staff reorganization was a factor. “We’ve been aligning our skills with long-term client demand,” he said, adding that the Microsoft-owned firm “[feels] good about client demand long-term.”

  253. Stu says:

    Tierny’s in Montclair would be a cool place for a GTG as well. Plenty of free parking and Guiness on tap. It’s a quiet enough place where we can hear each other and their grub is decent as well.

  254. Clotpoll says:

    beer (231)-

    Your take on Washington Twp is exactly right. Your RE skillz ain’t shabby.

  255. Clotpoll says:

    beer (244)-

    Washington Twp/Warren Co sends to Warren Hills HS.

  256. scribe says:

    I’m up for a GTG.

    Tell me when, where, and I’m in!

    And Grim, I want to hear your voice finally :)

    Please practice saying this line:



  257. morpheus says:


    Better than grim saying “Hello sailor”

  258. Shore Guy says:

    “run down” and a little trashy”

    Oh, John?????? This is your cue….

  259. chicagofinance says:

    259.Stu says:
    June 22, 2009 at 9:32 pm
    Tierny’s in Montclair would be a cool place for a GTG as well.

    Stu: Tierny’s was the starting point of a very wasteful two year period in my early 20’s. Some very good memories, but mostly a mess. I also stunned myself at how much of a piece of $hit I could be. I won’t return there……it’s a great little place though……is the Torn Hat still around?

  260. chicagofinance says:

    263.safeashouses says:
    June 22, 2009 at 10:32 pm
    My vote for tackiest wedding ever.

    bairen: the groom looks like Bela Lugosi…..lots of nice yabos though….

  261. Shore Guy says:

    Okay, guys. Fess up, which one of you is this? I am pretty sure it is not John, as there is no velour.

Comments are closed.