(Karen Weaver from Deutsche Bank provided a similar forecast a little over two weeks ago.)
From CNBC:
US Home Prices Seen Falling 40% Overall: Analyst
U.S. housing prices will fall by a double-digit percentage from already beaten-down levels, resulting in an overall 40 percent plunge by the time foreclosures peak in the second half of 2010, Barclays Capital economist Michelle Meyer said.
Meyer issued her forecast two days after the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes showed for April an 18.1 percent year-to-year decline, compared with 18.7 percent in March, in the rate of home price declines in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas.
The indexes have tracked the prices of U.S. single-family homes since 1987.
“While the early signs of improvement are in place for housing, the market will likely remain out of balance for some time, given the flood of foreclosures,” Meyer wrote.
“Home prices are likely to continue to fall, albeit at a slowing pace, even after the economy technically emerges from the recession.” Home prices have fallen 32.6 percent from their peak three years ago, S&P/Case-Shiller said.
On that basis, they would need to fall another 11 percent for an overall 40 percent peak-to-trough decline. Further declines could imperil metropolitan areas that have yet to experience the worst of the nation’s housing slump.
According to S&P/Case-Shiller, New York was the only major market to have above-average, month-over-month housing price declines in both March and April and also have a below-average decline for the year ended in April.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Foreclosures to Peak in Late 2010, Meyer Says
U.S. foreclosures will peak in the second half of 2010 and home prices will continue to decline through the end of that year, according to Barclays Capital.
“Home prices are likely to continue to fall, albeit at a slowing pace, even after the economy technically emerges from the recession,” Michelle Meyer, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York, said in a report today. Prices may drop another 7 percent, she said, based on the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 U.S. cities.
The three-year-old housing slump has slashed U.S. home prices 33 percent since their July 2006 peak, according to S&P/Case-Shiller. Prospective buyers are constrained by rising mortgage rates, the highest unemployment since 1983 and the longest recession of the post-World War II era.
U.S. homeowners trying to sell are competing with a glut of discounted foreclosures. It would take about 9.6 months to sell the nation’s 3.8 million unsold homes at the current sales pace, according to the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors.
oh, first. and happy 4th!!!
Brigadoon takes 1 and 2
RayC, give me a shout out at nomdeplumenj@gmail.com
Now I REALLY feel superior, you know, to those red ribbon towns.
Fifth!!! Well, as close as I ever get. Nice brown shoots today with unemployment and the bank closings.
I still have money in Citibank, so I must be completely numb to bank failure Friday.
RayC
You’ve got mail
sx (from #255, last thread)-
Heard Satie’s Three Sarabandes on WNYC driving home from work tonight & had to pull over.
That was some sick shit. Pure genius.
Will be fun listening to Satie when the mortar and small arms fire gets going in earnest.
Sort of a psychic Quaalude, dropped into a Red Bull.
We’re up to 52 bank failures this year. Will we hit 100 this year?
“I still have money in Citibank, so I must be completely numb to bank failure Friday”
get out.
I remember back in 06 I told these boards Citi was in trouble, i think the only person who heard me out was clotpol, everyone told me:
“SAS, go back to selling lemonade”
:P
RMG (261, last thread)-
RMG (261)-
Willard was one of my dad’s best friends. My clan all hails from Memphis.
I’m not a grain trader. Know more than a few, though…both dead and alive. Also know lots of cotton people, both the degenerate Dunavants and the brilliant Trachtenbergs.
I was barely old enough at the time to understand the move that Willard and Ned Cook pulled on the Russians. I do, however, know people peripheral to the transaction who were made for life.
You know any of the Ragens from Memphis?
Can somebody cite chapter and verse from Revelations on this one? I’m pretty sure it’s a harbinger of the Endtimes:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/sweden-cuts-deposit-rate-to-negative-25.html
I’ve found the recession.
Ramsay’s restaurants profits down 90%
http://www.smh.com.au/executive-style/culture/profits-gobbled-up-at-gordon-ramsays-restaurants-20090703-d6t7.html
“bank failures”
btw:
bank failures are usually profitable.
SAS
safe (15)-
Shitty footballer, shitty cook.
#17 pol
His shows from the UK were funny. Always cussing and being a wanker.
sas (16)-
Let’s go to Sweden and watch the bank run.
safe (18)-
When it’s time to deliver the goods, being a cussing wanker ain’t worth jack.
#17 pol
I actually preferred Kylie Kwong and Neil Perry’s cooking shows. Haven’t found them over here.
Grim,
I’m throwing a BBQ in the REO on the 11th and would like to send an invite out to yourself and a few people from the board. As I don’t want to open it to the anonymous world, if any one the ones that made the Glen Ridge GTG want to come along, pass on my email.
I’ll try the old email I have for Rich as well.
Clot I have a few Boro friends that might make it and would probably be interested in having a few words. Then don’t get to vent much over here!
“bank failures are usually profitable”
think of it in terms of mafia rules:
your success depends on being able to take down other rivals.
SAS
#17 Clot
Shitty footballer, shitty cook.
I think breaking a leg with the Gers was probably the best thing that happened to him.
I’ll give him credit for the cooking underneath all the BS. At least he hasn’t found neutral and is coasting like Marco.
Brigadoon? Please! There isn’t a decent beach in town, nor is there a decent bay or river. It may be on a train line to Newark and NYC but that is a poor replacement for the smell of the ocean or salt marsh.
“I think breaking a leg… that happened to him”
Beats a trip to the pine woods of Jackson wrapped in plastic in the trunk of a car.
“I checked out the payment options (I was really checking for any hint as to why they are called the Franchise Tax Board.)
It does not appear that they are accepting IOUs at this time.”
I wonder if they will start behaving like the Fed, and accept chickens, goats, old tires, beanie baby collectione, etc. All those things are more vaaluable than the chits the state is handing out.
About Brigadoon above, clearly my tongue was planted firmly in cheek.
PGC (24)-
Marco knows he’s lucky to be alive. He can’t do more than coast, or his head will explode.
Being a Boro fan must suck bad. From the top…to the bottom…to the top…to the bottom. The real killer is, that whole area’s economy is decimated by the death of the car business.
Does reported unemployment hit 10.9 % before everything is said and done? I think 10.8 is the post WWII peak.
#30 Shore Guy.
I think so. I bet the regular posters on this site are over 10% unemployed/unemployed by now
#29 Clot,
Th big issue with the Boro fans is that you won the derby and still went down. They have a hard time forgiving you for that.
BBC reporting Mickey Owen to Man U. I thought he was over 26!
Shore 25 – Train to Newark. Not even a direct train to NYC. That should rank it lower than say Perth Amboym which has better water and train access, right? :)
Retroactive tax on lottery winners, nice…
From the Star Ledger:
N.J. taxing lottery winners for first time in state history
The limits of luck are becoming clear to Lynn Sellari, whose Cash 5 lottery ticket left her with a windfall of money in May.
Over the past few days, Sellari and hundreds of other recent lottery winners — including 10 Chubb Insurance workers who scored one of the state’s largest jackpots among them — have learned about a little-mentioned detail tucked within a package of new taxes lawmakers created to help relieve the state’s budget troubles.
Along with liquor, cigarettes and wine, New Jersey will begin taxing lottery winnings to generate revenue to help the cash-strapped government, with a maximum rate of almost 11 percent. The law took effect July 1, but there’s a special provision when it comes to the lottery: it taxes winners going back to the start of the year.
“It isn’t fair,” said Sellari, who won $425,855. “It infuriates me how they can pull it off in the middle of the year.”
Sellari, 61, said the federal government immediately reduced her windfall by as much as 25 percent, so the idea of paying more to the state made her and her husband bristle. “It’s not that I’m ungrateful, but it makes winning bittersweet,” said Sellari, who lives in Nutley.
In New Jersey, lottery winners have never paid state taxes on their prizes, which the Treasury Department is quick to point out in its rationale for collecting them now.
“We were one of the few states that did not tax winnings,” Treasury spokesman Tom Bell said. “We’re facing historic shortfalls in revenue. We had to look for solutions.”
Why Open Houses Still Work
Real estate agents say that, thanks to the Web, open houses are no longer necessary. Our columnist explains that in boom or bust times, this is one selling tool that won’t go out of style.
NAR’s survey shows old-fashioned open houses have remained consistently useful to consumers, even in the age of YouTube video marketing pitches and virtual home tours with jazzy musical scores. Since 2001, the number of buyers who said they found a house they eventually bought through an open house or yard sign was constant at about 15%. Nor have economic ups and downs made much of an impact on how people regard them. In 2006, 47% of buyers said they used open houses as an information source in their home search; in 2008, the number was 48%.
[OpenHouse] Associated Press
And sure, open houses also attract nosy neighbors, bored Sunday drivers, decorating addicts and petty thieves. But all except the last are harmless and may wind up falling in love with your house, or talking it up to someone else who will. Thieves, meanwhile, can be thwarted by locking up your valuables and prescription drugs—which you should do before putting your house on the market anyway.
Since 2001, the number of buyers who said they found a house they eventually bought through an open house or yard sign was constant at about 15%. … In 2006, 47% of buyers said they used open houses as an information source in their home search; in 2008, the number was 48%.
Sure, open houses work. Realize that the primary reason for holding one is for the agent sitting the open house to find new clients.
As far as being an effective selling tool? 15% sounds almost like they don’t work. Did you see that little caveat in there? That little ol’, “or yard sign”, that you might have missed? Likewise, the purpose of a yard sign is to market the agency, not the house.
As to the 48% of buyers that used them as an information source? I walk into Best Buy to check out new toys, but I’ll follow that up by buying online.
Went to the gym this morning. A surprising number of people turned up considering that it is a holiday weekend. Hmm, vacations are getting a tad expensive, eh? Plus, this is haughty Montclair.
Making a trip to Boston, will report on the road and Newbury street traffic.
Happy 4th Everyone!
36-Also think opens are for the gratification of the seller–feeds their egos to some extent and makes it look like the agent is doing something for them. Really the agent and the agency don’t care if they sell your house as long as they sell a house.
Clot:
negative rates- a windfall for sealy and Au. Also outright theft
Shore
u2, We will easily surpass 10.8. The % change stats show it’s to late to stop before that
shore- I think the operative word there is “reported”. will the actual unemployment #’s be given or will we just be lied to?
Brigadoonians,
I hear that there is only one “bad” part of town in Brigadoon and it is centrally located around Caciolla. True?
10.8% unemployment? Geezus, we are already at the level and beyond. The regime is telling the proletarians that which they can comprehend. It was discussed here yesterday that the 10% barrier has pyschological effects which means an asteriod can hit the earth and we still would never approach 10% unemployment.
I hear that there is only one “bad” part of town in Brigadoon and it is centrally located around Caciolla. True?
That all depends on whether or not you are in the “right” part of town when you ask that question.
Slummit? Slumfield?
I’ve talked to people who’ve told me that anything south of 28 might as well be ghetto.
In a revamped health care system envisioned by Democrat Senators, people would be required to carry health insurance just like motorists must get auto coverage now. The government would provide subsidies for the poor and many middle-class families, but those who still refuse to sign up would face fines of more than $1,000.
43 – 78 not 28
Gator,
Pearth Amboy also has easy access to energy resources and supplies of metals, including in the air and water.
45. BOHICA, compliments of the New Soviet Congress. Teddy must be fit to be tied as he is dying, just as he gets his wish, full enslavement of America.
#45 – The part of Brigadoon south of 78 is the arrogant side. I’m talking about south of 28 (aka North Ave), the ghetto.
44. confused in nj
Yes, people might not like the ‘change’ they voted into office. And what blows me away is that they want to revamp the entire system in the middle of a recession. This is not going to end well.
i’m suggesting that all of westfield is ghetto.
And what blows me away is that they want to revamp the entire system in the middle of a recession.
The Dems are like a pack of heynas, they like to attack the wildebeest (masses) when they’re at their weakest (recession).
From MarketWatch:
Why those who can pay walk away from mortgages
New research found that more than 25% of mortgage loan defaults are strategic — that is, a quarter of homeowners who default on their mortgages are walking away from their homes even if they can afford to make their payments.
Homeowners are especially motivated to walk away when home values have fallen by more than 15%, according to a new paper, “Moral and Social Restraints to Strategic Default on Mortgages,” by researchers at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and the European University Institute. Data were collected within the last six months as part of the Chicago Booth/Kellogg School Financial Trust Index, a quarterly indicator of the amount of trust Americans have in private institutions in which they can invest their money
…
The report found that homeowners often won’t default as long as negative equity doesn’t exceed 10% of the value of the home. However, 17% of households would default — even if they could afford their mortgage payments — when their equity shortfall reaches 50% of the value of their home, according to the paper. In numerous housing markets, home prices have suffered declines of more than 30%.
From Crain’s:
Cable network plans layoffs
TruTV is about to can nearly half of its New York City staff.
The Turner Broadcasting cable network formerly known as Court TV has announced layoffs of 106 employees, according to a notification the Time Warner division sent to the New York State Department of Labor.
Currently TruTV has 228 employees in Manhattan.
grim [43]
>>I’ve talked to people who’ve told me that anything
>>south of 28 might as well be ghetto.
I live in a real ghetto and I would take this ghetto over my current one any day of the week: MLS 2678961
I have been told you HAVE to live north of 28 but there are plenty of great options south as well. Besides, if we live in Slumfield, I can tell my children that only the kids who live off Lawrence Ave can afford to shop at The Mall at Short Hills. We will go to Target (french pronunciation, natch).
ruggles [45]
I thought you were referring to Summit with your south of 78 comment and I as going to say, isn’t the area of Summit below 78 called… Springfield?
But now I see you are a Brigadoon-hater.
Has there been a discussion of which towns between upper-haughtyville and lower ghettoford are worth living in? Doesn’t seem like there is a lot of grey area in these threads.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/jun/30/congress-financial-reform-banks
I like this DeFazio from Oregon…
My understanding is he wants to use the funds raised for infrastructure spending.
Dean Baker article – “Banks own the US Government” explains DeFazio’s push for a 0.02% tax on oil trades/ speculation ……
“…Of course a modest tax will make life much more difficult for speculators. Many of them expect to make quick short-term gains after buying and selling the same day. For those traders, an increase in transactions costs of 0.02% would be a burden.”
DeFazio’s bill is effectively a tax on gambling in the oil markets. For someone using the market to hedge, the tax is inconsequential…..
The article ends with…”There are smart ways to make money and regulate the market, but Wall Street is working to kill any meaningful financial reform.”
(51) Gary – About revamping things in the middle of a recession…
I recently talked to a friend… her husband is putting in overtime – while on furlough – because the employer is paralyzed by the health care issue.
Does not want to hire – does not know what to expect in the near future. He is frozen and paying overtime for now to meet current contracts.
Crazy.
http://www.infrastructurist.com/2009/06/25/one-congressmans-proposal-make-wall-street-aholes-foot-the-bill-for-infrastructure/
More on DeFazio’s idea…
“Make Wall Street A**holes Foot the Bill for Infrastructure”
But now I see you are a Brigadoon-hater.
Oh no, I’d say most folks here like the town itself. What they don’t like are the attitudes and behaviors exhibited by the most visible members of it.
Nobody is going to drive through Westfield and think the place is a ghetto at all, and I’d wager most folks who drive though would probably exhibit some signs of wanting to live there, if given a choice.
The problem isn’t the town, it’s the residents. And I shouldn’t stereotype because I know of some great neighborhoods there. But like I said above, the outgoing and visible members of town tend to sent the trend for behavior.
When folks here poke fun at Brigadoon, I think they do it to try to bring that attitude down a notch or two.
But Gary’s rants about Graydon and Ellery? I don’t think folks here realize how on-the-money they are.
ManU passes on Ribery for being too old…but takes Owen?
This guy can’t even put in a full 90 minutes, but I bet his price was right.
Don’t tell me for a second the Glazers aren’t broke & ManU isn’t insolvent. All that CR7 cash…and the best they can do is Owen?
The only thing better than this would be watching them face the drop.
PGC (32)-
Would be nice to see Boro vs ManU in the Championship (hardy har!).
12,000 angry fans + 68,000 empty seats at Old Trafford…while they’re playing in the CL at Eastlands, and Tevez is scoring all the time.
Some people fantasize about women. This is how I get my jollies. I am an old, decrepit man.
Chatham/Madison Report
Bunch of under contracts yesterday on the lower end of the market.
Houses on Watchung Ave (MLS 2676766, list $599k), Kings Rd (#2666509, $470k), and Woodland Rd (#2672832, $649k) all went under contract. All on main thoroughfares, all 70-100 DOM. Two of them had meaningful reductions (>10%) from OLP.
Also, a 4BR/3BA on Fairwood Rd (2688853, $639k) went after 27 DOM and a condo on Canterbury (2684735, $460k) after 41 DOM. Neither had a decrease in OLP.
Last hurrah before summer, I guess.
Took a glance at inventory in Chatham and surprised by how bad it is. Two components.
Good houses, overpriced (some wildly so), sitting on the market forever. Who knows if the seller is serious and will ever drop. Most sell when dropped to around assess (2005). To be in the ‘good’ house category you need location, yard, and updated move-in condition.
Marginal houses, priced around assess (2005) but due to shortcomings needing a real haircut to that value. Wallowing like the above at 100/200+ DOM. One relatively minor infraction that during the boom would have been easily overlooked like hilly backyard, no updating, etc can throw a house in this purgatory. I suspect major price cuts will occur here as I think these owners are more pinched, can’t or won’t make the improvements, and will soon need to sell.
The only sure way to move anything is a ‘good’ house at assess or a big hit on a marginal one. Anything else sits or is a crapshoot if you can find one interested bidder.
So, Owen goes down in his first appearance with some niggling injury that forces him to miss 25 games…and the Glazers are only out a couple quid.
Again, please tell me this club is not insolvent:
“The striker will then have a full medical at Carrington on Friday and could put the finishing touches to a pay-as-you-play deal as early as next week.
The England international is without a club following the expiry of his contract with Newcastle United and it appeared only Stoke City and Hull City were interested in offering him a contract.
But now it appears Sir Alex Ferguson is ready to snap up a player who is fourth in the all-time goalscorers list for his country.
Newspaper reports suggest the contract will be purely incentive based, depending on minutes played and goals scored.”
drat; moderated @ 62
54 and 58 – To me, Westfield is a small island of wealth (notice I did not say culture) in a sea of mediocrity. And Princeton plays that role much, much better.
If you’re going to pay money for whatever you think is a fancy town then draw a line west from Short Hills to Tewksbury and pick one. Any of them are full of richer people, fancier kids, better schools, nicer downtowns, hotter au pairs, whatever you think top dollar gets you. I’ve lived in Chatham boro, Chatham township and Gladstone–all insulated from the real world by many fancy surrounding towns.
Even Montclair, GlenRidge, Verona, etc. has a Main Line feel to it. Where you’re part of a larger community of wealth than just one town.
Personally I dislike most of north Jersey except where i live now which is Hunterdon/Warren because its more like PA.
As for your in between towns comment, There’s a guy here who touts Scotch Plains. I kind of agree (altho I joked that it’s boring) its a nice enough place and you can walk to westfield if you have a passport and bribe money. Denville, Randolph, Long Hill (Gillette), Green Brook. all nice.
grim and seneca,
That just shows you how pretentious people are. There’s a section of Westfield that’s a bit indutrial I wouldn’t want to live near, just because of the looks of the place. But Westhood seems for the most part fine to me. The houses I’ve been in are in pretty good shape, tend to be on the small side.
safe [65],
Hey, just because Hayley and Spencer wear Lilly Pulitzer sundresses and pastel polos doesn’t make them pretentious! ;)
ruggles,
I need to move two fairly small red maple trees that are in front of my old house. Have you used any tree transplanting services before and if so what should I watch out for?
Jim
“I like this DeFazio from Oregon…”
Cindy,
I know Peter reasonably well and I admire him a great deal. He is a straight shooter and as honest as they come.
(68) Shore – I sure like his thinking on this. It is an honest solution to the funding issue. Cool guy to know.
#66 gary,
Hey, just because Hayley and Spencer wear Lilly Pulitzer sundresses and pastel polos doesn’t make them pretentious! ;)
I think their parents and friends did that for them. Lilly Pulitzer just helps id them, like tattoos do in tribal societies.
67 Jim ,try moving them yourself ,but wait until fall or early winter
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090703/ap_on_go_co/us_health_care_overhaul
Grim – Chicago – A bit of Sunstein…
“Called “shared responsibility payments,” the fines will offset at least half of the cost of basic medical coverage, according to the legislation. The goal is to nudge people to sign up for coverage when they are healthy, not wait until they get sick.”
67 – All I know (and this is from my partner who grew up working on a flower farm) is that the best time to move trees and established shrubs is in early spring or later fall when they’re dormant but before the ground freezes.
Anybody send their young kids away to camp? Many of my 9 year old’s friends are away at camp for 6 weeks.
Have a great few days, all. Happy 4th. I’m off to Nevada City/Grass Valley – Northern CA for a GTG with old friends: Music, good food, Patron.
Enjoy,
Cindy
“Anybody send their young kids away to camp? Many of my 9 year olds friends are away at camp for 6 weeks”
We found a great place in NC, Camp LeJeune.
Cindy,
Enjoy Northern CA.
Anyone on this board can recommend daycare in Monroe or Cranbury, NJ? Have a 3 month old that will need day care in about 4 weeks. Thanks in advance for your feedback :)
Would love to buy a house…but waiting for prices to come down an affordable level considering the high taxes in NJ.
“Would love to buy a house but waiting for prices to come down an affordable level considering the high taxes in NJ”
Think of it this way. Imagine a store that has a big sale every May — a huge blowout with insane discounts. Let’s say it is April, and you are thinking that you would really like to buy some of what they sell, why on earth would you buy when waiting a little longer will bring huge rewards. If you have a decent rental –or can find one — there isno pressure (and no incentive) to buy now.
People rushing to overpay to get the he tax credit is like people insisting they need to pay $1 in mortgage interest to save $.30 in tax — heckuva deal.
Some budget-restraint activists claim even the debt understates the nation’s true liabilities.
The Peter G. Peterson Foundation, established by a former commerce secretary and investment banker, argues that the $11.4 trillion debt figures does not take into account roughly $45 trillion in unlisted liabilities and unfunded retirement and health care commitments.
That would put the nation’s full obligations at $56 trillion, or roughly $184,000 per American, according to this calculation.
At 3% interest, over 30 years, that is around $775 a month per person. Since we accumulated the debt, we should pay it. Time to start sending bills to every family. That $3,200/month will put a crimp in many familes’ budgets (assuming a family of 4) but should also drive home the out-of-control spending our representatives are engaged in on behalf of us. After all, they say we demand the spending. If we order a meal at a diner, we expect to pay for it. If we rent a car, we expect to pay for it. Why should it be different for our government services?
Why is it every time I make a final offer on a property, the listing agent announces “there is another offer on the house that is higher” and “we will present your offer” to seller with the other offer.
If my offer is lower, why are you still submitting it to the seller?
My bullsh*t meter is starting to go off the scale.
I assume the the fact that since the listing agent did not say that this other “offer” was much higher, then if it does exist than I am at least not too far off in my determination of the value of this home.
Assuming that the listing agent is telling the truth (which is a big assumption), perhaps the offer has more conditions.
82 – unless its brand new on the market and very well priced or just had a huge price reduction, there is about a 99% chance that there is no other offer. or maybe there is another offer but it is verbal or much lower than yours.
also, i think, and agents here can verify, that all written offers must be presented to a seller by law in NJ. unless the seller specifically instructs against it.
its part of the listing agent’s job to get the best deal for their client not to sell you a house for a fair price. if they can pull another 10k out of you so much the better.
Morph [82]
Were the agent’s lips moving when they said this? If so, they are probably full of it.
Apologies to the 3 Realtors ® who don’t lie.
Morph 82
Make the offers that make sense to you. Real estate is the same as any other market in that the ‘market’ is no more than the aggregation of bids and asks at any one time. If they cross, the item sells. If they don’t, it doesn’t.
Don’t overanalyze its worth to anyone else but yourself, you’ll only end up chasing the market – up or down. Nobody in the history of mankind has ever bought at the exact low and sold at the exact high in the market for any goods. People can get hurt – badly – when they chase markets.
I suggest identifying the type of house you want and use your knowledge of your personal circumstances to determine what it is worth to you. When you find one subtract 25% from your number and make that your bid. If you can close between -25% and your number you have a house and you won’t be hurt or second guessing yourself. If it don’t win it, wait for the next one, and do it again.
If *you* don’t win it….
How do you make SRS go to 300 again?
Here’s how:
“Citigroup is blaming shorts when the short interest is under 3%. That’s ridiculous. If Citigroup does not understand this, it is a sign of incompetence. If Citigroup does understand how ridiculous their claim looks (and is), that is additional support for the desperation thesis.
Note the dividend. Citigroup is paying a dividend when it is clearly in need of capital . Is that a sign of arrogance or incompetence? That Citigroup is in this mess in the first place is clearly sign of incompetence somewhere, at some point in time. Current management will attempt to place that blame on Chuck Price, but the culture of greed, arrogance, and excessive risk taking, permeated the entire financial industry.
Looking ahead, foreclosures, credit card defaults, and bankruptcies are going to soar along with a soaring unemployment rate. Banks in general, and citigroup specifically, are woefully undercapitalized and unprepared for what is about to happen. One look at a chart of Citigroup should be proof enough.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/more-idiocy-from-sec-reinstatement-of.html
Clotpoll says:
July 3, 2009 at 1:41 pm
How do you make SRS go to 300 again?
Reverse splits….I guess this answers the question from several weeks ago…..
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_D/threadview?m=tm&bn=87812&tid=343943&mid=343974&tof=10&rt=2&frt=2&off=1
chi (88)-
SRS will see 300 before it sees 16 again.
Even if it doesn’t, no sweat.
Welcome to the party Euro-Zone!
“Euro-Zone Unemployment Hits 9.5%”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124651760324884833.html
Things that make you go hmmm…
Interesting that they have the exact same unemployment figure that we do. Just saying.
Apologies if something about this has already been posted. It’s hard keeping up while away.
BTW Stu and I give 2 thumbs up to the Rum Ginger Ice Cream at Temptations in St. George, Bermuda. A great way to beat the heat. We hope everyone is enjoying their long, holiday weekend!
More NJ Tea Parties this weekend.
http://www.baristanet.com/2009/07/nj_to_hold_tea_party_rallies_j.php#more
to all:
thanks. I sent a E-mail to my realtor asking her to inform the listing agent that under NAR’s code of ethics (an oxymoran if there ever was!)Standard of Practice 1-15, I want to know where this offer came from: the listing agent, another agent in the listing agent’s office or from a cooperating broker. I also told her to inform the listing agent that I am aware of her responsibilities under Article 2 that the listing agent cannot make a misrepresentation of pertinent facts relating to the property or transactions. Then my agent is to ask again if this is a “real” offer.
All this probably will not amount to anything but at least the listing agent knows that if I find out that she is lying I will report her to whatever authorities govern her.
There, I feel a little better.
Enjoy the 4th. I always find that alcohol makes home fireworks more enjoyable (I am of course joking . . .I would never condone breaking the law in NJ about fireworks. . . .yada. . . .yada. . . yada….what is that clicking sound when I pick up my phone?)
89#, i heard she is coming to the town. got your ticket yet? or at least click the video once more.
seriously, it needs a miracle to get back to 30’s for this puppy.
http://www.susan-boyle.com/
Clotpoll says:
July 3, 2009 at 2:13 pm
chi (88)-
SRS will see 300 before it sees 16 again.
Even if it doesn’t, no sweat.
“SRS will see 300 before it sees 16 again.”
What is stock price correlated to? PE? Growth? Forward looking earnings? Earnings? Or is it just the odds that someone down the line will take it off your hands at a higher price than what you paid for it – I think this is the case most likely – little else.
BTW – don’t ask any questions – give Mr market your money on a monthly basis and they will decide what’s best for you.
94,
A miracle? Creating $15 Trillion for the big bailout which results in negative growth is close to a miracle. Divine intervention, nor a miracle, won’t make this puppy bark. How do you correct financial mistakes? By subsidizing them? How does creating more debt solve the problem of a world buried in debt.
Later. Back out to the John Deere. Somebody has to produce in this economy. After that, cocktails with a midwest farmers daughter.
Have to watch that SRS, all the grain elevators are going bust out here. I can only imagine how CRE is performing on Fall Street.
94,
A miracle? Creating $15 Trillion for the big bailout which results in negative growth is close to a miracle. Divine intervention, nor a miracle, won’t make this puppy bark. How do you correct financial mistakes? By subsidizing them? How does creating more debt solve the problem of a world buried in debt.
Later. Back out to the John Deere. Somebody has to produce in this economy. After that, drinks with a midwest farmers daughter.
Have to watch that SRS, all the grain elevators are going bust out here. I can only imagine how CRE is performing on Fall Street.
pol clot: have you seen WALL-E? The humans bear a striking resemblance to a post-apocalyptic version that you seem so fatalistic about……
So Dave Letterman’s favorite “slutty-looking-flight-attendant” Governor is quitting?
In mod about Palin resigning.
chi (97)-
Loved Wall-E. Saw it twice.
The humans in that movie don’t seem post-apocalyptic to me. I deal with fat, stupid, slothful bags of blood every day.
Shore… May be I will have the joy of posting the news. Palin resigning as Gov.
Here’s a fox link:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/07/03/palin-opts-run-second-term-alaska-governor/
Sanford/Palin 2012!
S
[50] ruggles
“i’m suggesting that all of westfield is ghetto.”
Then you won’t be offended if I jack you up and pistol whip you if you show up here?
FWIW, I looked hard at Chatham, Summit, and to a lesser extent Millburn, but decided I liked Westfield better. Primary reason? Far fewer @ssholes. Life’s too short to willingly live in proximity to people that I have a strong compulsion to drag from their car and beat senseless. My older one did youth soccer for 2 seasons in Summit and the parents and their little brats were so obnoxious that I told her she was permitted to flatten the opposing players, and I forbade the spouse from signing her up there again.
And from our perspective as outsiders, we could never understand the attraction of Summit/Millburn/Chatham. In fact, we pretty much think that they all suck when compared to the tonier Boston, Philly, or DC suburbs. The stores aren’t better, the dining isn’t better, the people aren’t smarter, the traffic is worse, everything is more expensive, and the people there really suck.
So when I hear “it’s different here,” I think it applies to just about everything. Living here is like living in an alternate universe.
[58] Grim,
When the au pair sent my oldest to school in her Sox cap, I told her that if anyone fcked with it, she was allowed to beat the sh1t out of them (okay, maybe I didn’t use those exact words since she is six).
Graydon and Ellery won’t be a problem.
[58] grim,
Wait a second. I just said au pair, didn’t I??? Does that make me one of those attitudinal Brigadoonians???
[80] confused
“Some budget-restraint activists claim even the debt understates the nation’s true liabilities.
The Peter G. Peterson Foundation, established by a former commerce secretary and investment banker, argues that the $11.4 trillion debt figures does not take into account roughly $45 trillion in unlisted liabilities and unfunded retirement and health care commitments. ”
Bingo. Give that man a cigar. And a passport to a solvent nation.
Grim, Safe, ChiFi, Kettle,
You’ve got mail.
Happy 4th.
God Bless America (as we bomb and extract wealth from the world aka. a global tax).
:P
SAS
i never did follow up on my “NATO to the East”
hypothesis…. in due time.
some might find it interesting, other will tell me to go crawl back to the cave.
SAS
“the $11.4 trillion debt figures does not take into account roughly $45 trillion in unlisted liabilities and unfunded retirement and health care commitments. ”
2 choices; default or inflate. wanna swap some taylor ham for wheat. there’s a new bubble right around the corner, demographics.
i pay taxes for my grain elevators. they store a product that the world wants and needs. what do you pay taxes for.
back to the midwest farmers daughter.
#101:
well said Nom.
“2 choices; default or inflate”
i would add, create a class war, onto your list.
easily done, been done in the past, and will be done again.
” there’s a new bubble right around the corner”
bubble or consolidation?
SAS
Sastry,
Has Palin made a series of trips to SOUTH America lately? Maybe she has a gaucho pal.
Have a happy 4th, one and all.
But if you’re bored:
http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/
“Palin”
i ain’t a fan of Palin, but I do think that Letterman egghead crossed the line with jokes about her daughter.
SAS
“In fact, we pretty much think that they all suck when compared to the tonier Boston, Philly, or DC suburbs. The stores aren’t better, the dining isn’t better, the people aren’t smarter, the traffic is worse, everything is more expensive, and the people there really suck.”
Welcome to NJ.
sas (110)-
What if the first sector to get itchy about rioting happens to be the public sector?
They have numbers, they have muscle, and they have a lot that’s been promised to them that is completely unfunded.
You can’t expect J6P to get out and riot because he’s underemployed. You can, however, imagine a 48 y/o retiring cop or fireman both having the energy and the know-how to unleash all kinds of whoop-ass in an urban combat environment.
sas (110)-
No more bubbles. We’ve now got to kill off a significant amount of people- both here and abroad- simply to recapture our former dominance.
First, we must destroy enough manufacturing capability outside the US to be able to assert a monopolistic hegemony post-victory.
Second, we need to kill off enough of our own to pare the population down to an adequate size to be able to thrive in a world of long-term diminishing growth.
Pat,
speaking of following money…
some hedge funds are setting cap & trade transactions on the Chicago Climate Exchange to support money laundering services used by investors in the drug trade. (Airborne Internet)
some of that money then trickles to campaign donations and media spin (to take the focus away from A and place it onto B, even when B may not exist at all, joe 6 pack will never know).
now, let me get back on my turnip truck. I just took a mighty fall.
SAS
Pol Clot,
-review the situation of Argentine economic crisis (1999–2002).
we may be heading that way (ballpark sort a speak).
kettle1 has a great documentary of the situation, he sometimes posts the link to it. You should give it a look see.
” We’ve now got to kill off a significant amount of people”
-thats what I am afraid of and hence why I added it to rain4grains list. I suspect it would be in that form to create a war.
sadly, i think it may be in the cards for the future.
I hope I”m wrong.
I got grandkids that I worry about everyday, and its the only reason i get my pithetic tail up everyday and goto work and put a smile on my face.
SAS
I was just reading about a hunt for a serial killer in SC and this statement stood out:
“gs. Cherokee County, home to about 54,000 people, had just six homicides in all of 2008”
It strikes me that this is a very high number for a rural area — just shy of 12 per 100,000 population.
Does it strike anyone else that way?
Happy 4th too all ye citizens from a non-citizen. US is still by far the best, warts and all.
S
Sas #113
Letterman’s joke was fine — Palin sort of tried to exploit it. May be she was going through some sh!t and her repeated assertion that the joke was about her second daughter was nutty.
I seriously hope that nothing serious turns out — except that Palin is an id!ot. I wouldn’t wish bad things even on a Bambi killer.
How times have changed. After ’04, it seemed like the dems were done for good. Now, the GOP is facing oblivion. They need someone real good. Don’t see anyone on the horizon.
S