From Bloomberg:
Manhattan Apartment Prices Drop as Lehman Effect Hits Home
Manhattan apartment prices dropped for the first time since 2002 in the second quarter as the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. caught up to property owners in the nation’s most expensive urban market.
The median price fell 18.5 percent from a year earlier to $835,700, New York appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said today. The number of sales plunged by half, the most since Miller Samuel began keeping data in 1989.
“The standstill that existed after Lehman Brothers has been broken, and it was the sellers that cried ‘Uncle,’” Pamela Liebman, chief executive officer of New York-based property broker the Corcoran Group, said in an interview.
Values are falling broadly in Manhattan for the first time in the almost four-year U.S. housing recession, with declines now seen in co-operatives and condominiums of every size and price. Private-sector employment in the city dropped by 91,200 jobs, or 2.8 percent in the 12 months through May as Wall Street losses and asset writedowns topped $1.4 trillion.
The price of studio apartments declined 16 percent from a year ago to a median of $405,000, according to Miller Samuel. One-bedrooms dropped 17 percent to $650,000 and two-bedrooms fell 23 percent to $1.27 million. Three-bedroom units fell 37 percent to $2.35 million and four-bedrooms plummeted 47 percent to a median of $3.92 million.
The Miller Samuel-Prudential data reflect for the first time what sellers have known for at least six months: The way to lure a buyer in the current market is to cut your price.
…
About 32 percent of second-quarter listings included discounts from the original asking price, according to StreetEasy.com, a Web site that gathers Manhattan property listings from brokers. The deepest concessions were on Central Park South and in the Financial District, where list prices were pared by an average of 10 percent.“The sellers who want to sell are reducing their prices,” Liebman said. “The ones that aren’t, are either sitting on them overpriced or waiting for another day.”
From the Daily Record:
Victory Gardens school district eliminated
The local school district was dissolved Wednesday when the state merged it with Dover’s, creating one that eventually will be represented by school board members elected at-large by voters in both towns.
The merger is expected to save $179,207, according to a report by Morris County Executive Superintendent Kathleen Serafino. The elimination of districts like Victory Gardens have been billed by the governor as part of property tax reform.
Victory Gardens is one of 13 nonoperating school districts the state Department of Education chose to shutter one day after Gov. Jon Corzine signed into law legislation making it easier to eliminate such districts. Another 13 are slated for extinction next summer.
From the APP:
State eliminates 2 local school districts
State Education Commissioner Lucille E. Davy on Wednesday announced the elimination of 13 school districts, including Sea Bright and Mantoloking, that were operating without any schools and with a relatively low number of students.
Sea Bright is merged with the Oceanport district and Mantoloking is merged with the Point Pleasant Beach district, Davy said in a prepared release.
The elimination and merger of the so-called non-operating school districts comes a day after Gov. Jon S. Corzine signed legislation to establish procedures for merging the districts with larger, neighboring districts where children from the non-operating districts already attend classes.
…
The remaining 13 districts not dissolved have additional considerations that must be addressed before a merger can be effectuated, the release said. Those include Allenhurst, Interlaken and Lake Como in Monmouth County.
Interesting graph from David Rosenberg courtesy of Barry Ritholtz:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/ue-per-job-opening2.png
The graph is titled, “THE TRUEST PICTURE OF EXCESS LABOUR SUPPLY”, and illustrates the change in the number of unemployed versus job openings.
From MarketWatch:
Euro-zone jobless rate hits 10-year high
The jobless rate across the 16-nations that share the European single currency rose more than expected to 9.5% in May, climbing to a 10-year high as the recession continues to take a toll on the euro zone.
The unemployment rate rose to 9.5% in May, according to Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics agency, up from 9.3% in April. Economists had forecast a rise to 9.4%.
The unemployment rate was 7.4% in May 2008.
From Bloomberg:
Payrolls Probably Fell, Unemployment Rate Reached 26-Year High
Employers in the U.S. probably cut an additional 365,000 jobs in June, a government report may show today, offering little evidence the Obama administration’s stimulus package is shoring up the labor market.
The payroll decline would follow a 345,000 drop in May, according to the median estimate of 79 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The jobless rate likely climbed to 9.6 percent, the highest since 1983.
Unemployment is projected to keep rising for the rest of the year just as the income boost from the stimulus package fades, undermining prospects for a sustained rebound in household purchases, analysts said. As companies from General Motors Corp. to Kimberly-Clark Corp. cut costs, the lack of jobs will limit any recovery.
“It’s a tough labor market to be sure,” said Carl Riccadonna, a senior economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. “It raises the risk of a potential double-dip in consumer spending. Rising unemployment makes it very sensitive politically.”
The Labor Department report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Economists’ forecasts for payroll declines ranged from 150,000 to 500,000. Job losses peaked at 741,000 in January, the most since 1949.
From CNBC:
NY City Apartment Sales Down Over 50%: Reports
Manhattan apartment sales plunged more than 50 percent and the average price dropped 21.4 to 24 percent from a year ago, as the U.S. recession forced many who own a piece of the Big Apple to eat humble pie, several reports said.
The average price of Manhattan apartment in the second quarter slid to $1,312,920 down from $1,669,729 a year earlier, according to a Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate report released Thursday.
Most of the year-over-year decline occurred in the fall, when the credit crisis brought the market to an abrupt halt, said Jonathan Miller, president and chief executive of Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers and the author of the report.
“What this is telling us is that the market continues to slide but not at the rate as it was last fall and that we’re probably not done yet,” Miller said.
From the WSJ:
Some Amish Lived It Up Until Hard Times Hit; Dinners Out and LED-Appointed Carriages
From the NYT:
Sharp Price Drops in Manhattan Apartments
Manhattan apartment prices fell sharply during the second quarter of 2009, as the limited number of deals struck during the darkest months of the economic downturn began to close, according to a series of market reports released Wednesday.
The number of closings fell more than 50 percent, and prices in some categories were reported down as much as 25 percent, compared with the same quarter in 2008. Sale prices were also down from those reported in the first quarter of 2009.
One report, by Brown Harris Stevens and Halstead Property, put the average price of a Manhattan apartment in the second quarter at $1.26 million, a decline of 24 percent from the same period in 2008, and 16 percent below the previous quarter. It put the median sale price at $795,000, 19 percent below the figure in the first quarter of 2008.
Another report, by Prudential Douglas Elliman, found that the median sale price on the resale of existing apartments was down by 25.6 percent from a year earlier. The report, prepared by Jonathan J. Miller, president of Miller Samuel Inc., an appraisal firm, said that the number of sales was down 50.3 percent compared with the same period in 2008.
From the Record:
Mortgage brokers face fraud charges
A Closter woman was among six mortgage brokers whose indictments on fraud charges were announced Tuesday by Attorney General Anne Milgram.
…
Milgram said two of the defendants, Yi Feng Reid, also known as Penny Reid, 48, of Closter and Yu Jane Chen, 42, of Philadelphia, used their roles in a Bergen County mortgage lending company to victimize at least seven customers.
Veto, Sir et al
Re income growth….
Wage Deflation in Our Midst
by David Rosenberg
A survey conducted by YouGov for the Economist magazine found that 5% of respondents had taken a furlough this year and 15% had accepted a pay cut (see The Recession and Pay: The Quiet Americans on page 33 of this week’s edition).
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/wage-deflation-in-our-midst/
I hope none of Nom Deplume’s clients are on this list…
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090630/ap_on_re_us/us_ubs_secrets
Indeed, by our estimates, there is up to another $5 trillion of household debt that has to be eliminated in coming years and that process is going to require that consumers go on a semi-permanent spending diet. Companies see this, which is why they are not just downsizing their payroll, but have also cut the workweek to a record low of 33.1 hours. Fewer people are working and those that are still working have seen their hours dramatically cut this cycle.
Why is it a good business decision for a company to walk away from its investors and immoral (thief) for a common person to walk away from its obligations.If walking away will make a better quality of life.
Good morning all. Reporting today from Elkhart County, Indiana, ground zero for the collapse of the RV industry. Lots of houses for sale, some under $50K, sold “as is.” One house on a nice lake nearby is for sale but some windows are broken out, some boarded up and the grass is overgrown. Huh?? Another lake cottage has been for sale for 3 yrs. Price has dropped from $300K to $225. No takers. A few houses down, a flipper gone flop is asking $800K. It’s a very nice house with a much bigger, nicely cared for lot and more lake frontage but he’s dreaming. One thing you don’t see in NJ: “For Sale: Amish farmette on 9 acres. 4 BR ranch, open concept, 55×60 pole building. 1 car garage for buggy.”
12….unsecured debt….is just that.
Outofstater-
I’m from that close to that area. All the RV’s are built by Mennonite (less orthodox version of Amish). Are you driving on the grooved roads where the carriages and wagon wheels have worn grooves in to the pavement?
I think I remember watching something on CNBC about Winnebago. One quote (paraphrased) was they had gone from three shifts to one that wasn’t completely full. That was awhile ago.
“The standstill that existed after Lehman Brothers has been broken, and it was the sellers that cried ‘Uncle,’” Pamela Liebman, chief executive officer of New York-based property broker the Corcoran Group, said in an interview.
Wow, you are a genius!
#12 Yome they are walking away from their debt.
Losses on US credit card debt reached a record of high of 10.4 per cent of outstanding loans in June, rating agency Fitch said in a statement released on Wednesday.
The report follows a similar assessment from Moody’s, which found US credit cards losses, as measured by the rating agency’s Credit Card Index, broke through 10 per cent in May. That is a record in the 20-year history of the index.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/07/01/59991/us-credit-card-losses-hit-record-fitch-says/
So I am up in Monhonk Monutain House, it is so great up here. No recession here whole place is sold out, this is first chance at PC as there is no TVs in room, no mornning paper and no internet connections in room. When you don’t see problems who knows they exist. It is nice to get a break from this newspaper created recession.
Yep, problems all seem to just disappear when you bury your head in the sand.
Another effective method of dealing with this situation would be to sit down in a corner, cover your ears and shut your eyes, slowly rock back and forth while screaming “I can’t hear you I can’t see you”.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. nonfarm payrolls fall wider-than-forecast 467,000 in June
Unemployment at 9.5%. Not to fear, the choosen one promised me hope, so all is well!
From MarketWatch:
U.S. payrolls down 467,000 in June, rate at 9.5%
Workers lost jobs at a faster pace in June than in the prior month, the Labor Department said Thursday. Nonfarm payrolls shrank by 467,000 in June higher than the 325,000 decline expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch and the 322,000 jobs lost in May. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 9.5% in June from 9.4% in the previous month. Economists had expected the unemployment rate to rise to 9.6%. Average hourly earnings were flat at $18.53. Economists had been expecting a 0.2% gain. Earnings are up 2.7% in the past year. The average workweek fell six minutes to 33.0 hours. Hours worked fell 0.8%
Unemployment up 0.1%, gimme a break. Nice massaged numbers.
greenshoots, quickly becoming greenshits.
I could be mistaken but isn’t that higher than the max for Timmay’s stress tests?!?!?
Initial claims at 614,000.
Still running way too hot to point to any kind of near-term recovery.
#7 grim
Some Amish Lived It Up Until Hard Times Hit; Dinners Out and LED-Appointed Carriages
Pimp my carriage?
The end is nigh!
#18 john: Did the newspaper create the unemployment #’s too? Or does that still not matter, kind of just like a mirage?
#15 Hawk – No, I haven’t seen any grooves in the roads but the WalMart in Goshen has hitching posts for the horses. And I have to remember to slow way down going around a curve on a country road in case there is a buggy ahead of me that I can’t see. Funny thing, for a place with 17% plus unemployment, the local restaurants seem to be doing okay – not mobbed, but reasonably full.
#20 grim: Come on now thats newspaper created.
“And it’s all well and good to predict a crash in the djia in 2001, but if you miss an 7-year run-up of 80% as a result, there are a lot of people who are doing better than you….Schiff is an investment advisor, not a policy-maker, and on actual 2001-2007 results, he didn’t do that well. Now, if he had been at the fed in 2001, we’d all be better off.”
Sir Rents Alot, I suggest you get better info. Schiff’s primary strategy since 2001 has been to invest in Gold and Oil. Those have produced much better returns than anything on the US markets in general.
Schiff reguarly posted double digit returns from 2001-2007. For a number of his clients, he made them over 100% in 2007 by be the sole supplier of investment to Andrew Lahde’s hedge fund that returned near record profits for shorting subprime mortgages.
I believe you are referring to 2008, which was a bad year for Schiff, because his anti dollar positions were undermined by a temporary rally in the dollar.
As for Schiff’s strategy, it’s clearly obvious you are referencing the attack pieces that floated around February. The sad part is, when the entire investment community tried turning on Schiff earlier this year, all the things he was begging people to buy at that time have had rallies of 70-250%! He’s already stated that 2009 has been the best year for Europacific clients so far. I have an account with Schiff and it lost 60% in October. I reinvested another 20% in October and December… I already made up what I lost 8 months ago.
You shouldn’t be referring to a 7 year run up in the DJIA the past 7 years. The Dow was easily the most pathetic performing market in the world at that time. The runups in emerging markets and producer nations dwarfed the Dow’s rally. Gold went up 300%. We all know where oil went. Besides…the Dow gave up every gain it’s made. Gold hasn’t.
If you are going to knock Schiff on a supposed bad investment strategy, I would suggest you apply the same logic to Paul Krugman. Krugman, by his own admission, had all his money in a Money Market account in an insolvent banking system that had no government guarantees at the time. That’s how well he misunderstood this crisis.
Rick Santelli basically telling three other panel members that you’re all full of sh*t. Good stuff!!
Speaking of greenshots, has anyone seen the 0bama Chia Pet? Green shoots coming out of his…head.
not kidding – http://www.chia.com/
“Yeah, and joe lieberman isn’t a Democrat. And I notice you conveniently dropped Schiff from that discussion. You may protest, but you source one side of the aisle. I’m not quite sure why you’ve gotten so breathless, since I generally agree with you about monetary policy, but you’d be more pursuasive if you came across as a bit less of an ideologue.”
How on earth are you accusing me of being an ideologues when you are the one trumpeting Liberals and trying to associate other credible economists with the Republicans. I’m the one trying to argue against bringing partisan politics into the argument! Furthermore, I outright brought up the fact that I had tons of respect for Dean Baker and Nouriel Roubini as economists! Both Liberal Progressives! You seem to still be trying to pin me to the Republican party when the fact of the matter is, I’m a registered independent and have never voted Republican in my entire life!
17….Yessir, you have missed a payment and now we have your interest rate at 30%….how would you like to pay that balance….?
Well, how about….”never”….FU!
Can anyone recommend a buyers’ agent that has intimate knowledge of the Warren & Basking Ridge area?
Ideally someone who will actually point out the pros and cons of each individual house and neighborhood, assist with fair pricing, and not just be someone hoping to get us to check our brains at the door and “fall in love” with a house.
23…..everybody with a brain knows we are in the 14-19% rate of unemployment. Damn.
Bill Gross: A stagnant economy for a generation.
re: #26 – Grim re: “Recovery”
Unemployment has gone up 7MM+ in the current downturn but it went up 6MM in the 1979-1983 downturn which was the last severe recession when there were real long food lines in NYC and other major cities.
If we compare the increase in unemployment to the 35% increase in population since the early 80s you have to ask yourself whether we have really hit bottom yet.
I mentioned the other day that government transfer of payments for for welfare, unemployment etc have reached an all time high of 18%. Government transfers now make up more than one-sixth of American incomes, the highest ever. Government spending on benefits will top $2 trillion in 2009, an average of $17,000 provided to each U.S. household that collects. How is this even sustainable?
Food Stamp enrollment hit a record 33.2 million people in March, up 5.2 million from last year.
There is no stopping this recession and how long will it be before they declare it a depression?
#18 Denis the Straw man.
You party in Mohonk, like its 1920.
#19 GRIM-
You just described the Kannekt Board
Remember when the Messiah signed the stimulus bill and promised that he’d save or create 3.5 million jobs? Well, in the last 5 months, we’ve lost aproximately 2,500,000 jobs. That’s the equivalent of being down 21 – 0 after the first quarter of the football game.
3b I don’t know a single qualified, hardworking married man with a stay at home wife who is flexible in the type of job he will do who is unemplyed. I know a lot of people who are picky picky picky who are unemployed. 2010 will be a watershed year for these people, severance and the one year unemployment will run out by then and they will all be scrambling, for now lazy beach days will fill their days on the govt dole. Also unemployment figures are meaningless when they say it is at a 25 year high. 25 years ago most women from 30-50 was out of workforce. The percentage of people 30-50 working is much higher than 25 years ago. My good friend with three little kids is technically unemployed, but talk to her with her nanny gone and her actually doing all the work she will tell you she is working 10 times as hard as last year yet since she is on unemployment she is unemployed. One thing I did notice through is the damm BMW service area and beach is more crowded on weekdays, when will these bums get back to work.
re: #34 – Live action Green shoots!
ttp://www.chiaobama.com/images/chia-obama-animated-2.gif
Sean [40],
The printing presses are white hot! The body is still upright until it looks down and realizes it’s heart has been ripped out.
7 – I was parked next to an Amish buggy about 5 years ago and the family had grocery bags in the back seat with Doritos popping out. They’ve been afronting God for years now.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fell 16,000 to 614,000 Last Week
The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits last week fell in line with forecasts, indicating firings remain elevated.
Initial jobless claims dropped by 16,000 to 614,000 in the week ended June 27, from a revised 630,000 the week before, the Labor Department said today in Washington. A separate report from Labor today showed the unemployment rate climbed to 9.5 percent, the highest since 1983, in June from 9.4 percent.
…
Economists forecast claims would fall to 615,000, according to the median of 38 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey, from a previously reported 627,000 a week earlier.
The number of people collecting unemployment insurance decreased by 53,000 in the prior week, to 6.7 million.
The four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure, fell to 615,250 from 618,000.
john [44],
I don’t know a single qualified, hardworking married man with a stay at home wife who is flexible in the type of job he will do who is unemplyed. I know a lot of people who are picky picky picky who are unemployed.
I’m flexible… when do I start work?
Can somebody help me in describing the below listing?
Anyhow new to the market asking price is 625k. Last sold in January 2007 for 759K. Taxes are just under a dreamy 13k.
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2929686&id=999999
Sean 40
There is no stopping this recession and how long will it be before they declare it a depression?
They wont. The great Depression wasnt really considered a depression until it was essentially over.
And dont forget that the government and NBER do not actually define the term “depression”. Therefore we could readily exceed all comparisons to the 1930’s and it would still officially be a “recession”. Just a 10 yr, 20% U3 recession ;)
I got a good job in college point queens in some plumbing place, do you have a CPA or MBA?
BTW the recession ended memorial day weekend, I am going back off line till Monday, have to drive home, going to jones beach tommorrow and some other stuff that is not PC friendly.
john says:
So I am up in Monhonk Monutain House
You need to drive around the countryside a bit. I remember that area from my days going up to Hunter Mountain. It’s been in a recession since 1960.
The hotel looks real nice though. Have a good 4th up there.
50 – catlike
John if you are slumming it at Jones Beach, and not having high tea after playing tennis in the Hamptons the recession is not over.
From CNBC:
Economy Sheds 467,000 Jobs; Unemployment Rate at 9.5%
Employers cut 467,000 jobs in June, far more than expected, while the unemployment rate rose to 9.5 percent, the government said on Thursday in a report that showed a labor market continuing to struggle with a deep recession.
The June job losses were more than 100,000 greater than the 363,000 consensus of Wall Street economists polled by Reuters and broke a four-month trend of moderation in job losses.
The Labor Department data showed that in April and May, 8,000 fewer jobs were lost than previously reported. The May job losses were revised downward to 322,000, while the April losses were revised upward to 519,000.
The jobless rate of 9.5 percent compares with 9.4 percent in May and was the highest since a matching unemployment rate in August 1983. Analysts had expected the rate to rise to 9.6 percent.
While job losses in June were spread across all sectors, the June figures showed the steepest declines in services, which fell 244,000 after a 107,000 drop in May.
Professional and business services fell 118,000, while government employment fell 52,000. Manufacturing was one of the few sectors to show a smaller drop in June, falling 136,000 after a 156,000 fall in May.
Gary,
The printing presses are white hot!
you aint seen nothing yet my friend. The Fed has monetized about a trillion $ or so in the last year. a rough guess is that they will need to monetize 2-3X that amount for the next several years.
As clot likes to say. You will know they are desperate when the FED buys a controlling stake in kinko’s to increase capacity
John’s dream Mcmansion is listed for just under $1,000,000.00. It is on the corner of one of the busiest and dangerous intersections in Bergen Co. Sitting of course on postage stamp size lot. This lot ends as a cliff that over looks the back of a dry cleaners,and other retail establishments.
And the taxes of course are just under $19,0000.00 per year
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2928558&id=999999
In the end i think the massive amount of renovations done during the run up will end up destroying value in housing. look at the factors from chinese dry wall, to radioactive granite counter tops, to carpentry/labor that was done by underpaid unskilled laborers, and w end up with homes that may have been sound to begin with but were essentially “damaged” buy the run of cheap renovations focused only on “curb appeal”
#53 John:BTW the recession ended memorial day weekend.
Well it was extended for the 4th of July weekend.
60 – plus the addition of useless rooms that make the homes bigger and more taxable.
grim (7)-
Those Amish degenerates…
38. Essex says:
July 2, 2009 at 8:51 am
23…..everybody with a brain knows we are in the 14-19% rate of unemployment. Damn.
——–
I agree. Putting it at 9.5% is like when a store sells something for $9.98. We wouldn’t want to cause a panic and let everyone think unemployment is over 10%, would we?
The 10% unemployment announcement will be our Labor Day present.
Agree, 10% now has significant psychological significance. For the better or worse.
It really does feel like it’s become some sort of positive comparison point:
Employment is bad folks, but look at the bright side, we’re still under 10%.
As if, like Jim says, there really is some kind of significant impact to the economy once we cross over from 9.99% to 10%.
Problem is, when one constructs such psychological barriers, you’ve also created a new problem once that barrier is breached.
“Oh my god, unemployment increased from 9.9% to 10%, things are really starting to deteriorate quickly!”
18: No recession? How much are the rooms discounted from just a few years ago in order to fill the place?
20: And those are “pre-revision” #s.
3b-
Re: listing for 625K
Found pics.
http://tour.circlepix.com/tour.htm?id=676459
I’m embarrased to say I don’t find it offensive except for the price and the strip of grass labeled the “back yard”.
mendham short sale of the day.
3 Aster terrace
originally a tear down, was sold for 372K in 2005. Torn down and an oversized contemporary mcmansion was put up on the lot.
The mcmansion sold in may of 2007 for 919K.
Family got divorced within 1 month of purchase and the wife is now trying to sell the home for 699K.
A offer was made recently for 640K. The wife (Bag holder) has accepted but now the bank must approve a short sale based on the bank eating the difference, as the bag holder does not have a check to bring ot the table.
talk about depreciation. This home has lost 30% of its value in 2 months, excluding closing costs and associate fees.
http://www.bing.com/maps/default.aspx?v=2&FORM=LMLTCP&cp=qswv458sg6nj&style=b&lvl=1&tilt=-90&dir=0&alt=-1000&phx=0&phy=0&phscl=1&scene=23712165&where1=3%20aster%20terrace%20mendham%20nj&encType=1
Taxes on that property….. 12K/yr
68: Asking price on this still says $749k. Oops.
More than 2.4 million people received unemployment insurance under the federal program in the week ending June 13, the most recent data available. Another 282,000 are claiming benefits under a state-run extended benefits program, which adds up to 13 additional weeks. All told, about 8.8 million people received jobless benefits that week.
another dose of anecdata: spoke to a main line realtor last night who described the area as a “hybrid”. he said: “the market here is just different, you can track philly’s drops by percentages but you really can’t do that here. sure there are homes that sell less than they should but they are so random it’s tough to put a number on it. people will overpay for the lower marion school system and the amount of old money here keeps these towns above water”. (anyone not familiar with the main line, think the train line towns in nj like summit – basking ridge.
i’m seriously going to lose it one day a just carry around print outs of all the factual data proving otherwise from this blog.
#65 clot:The 10% unemployment announcement will be our Labor Day present.
And than we can extend the recession again.
Grim, sean
my professional opinion as a highschool janitor is that the real break point is 20% U3. AT that point i think there would be enough negative social momentum and lack of hope that americans might actually start imitating their european counter parts and raising a ruckus. not that the government would ever report such a high number. They would discontinue the series before they would dot hat. but the reporting is somewhat pointless at that level as the effects would be crystal clear to all except john.
secondary,
try a taser. might actually get their attention
We just had a house near me close a couple of weeks ago at $335k. It was purchased in ’06 for $394k. The neighbor about 4 doors down had been trying to sell his similar but much smaller and uglier house for $390k.
“mendham short sale of the day.”
Hey! This sounds much better than John’s “Bond of the day”.
Secondary: Friend on the Main Line told me when he was having his kitchen redone that the contractors referred to them as $50k take-out re-heating stations.
Some Amish Lived It Up Until Hard Times Hit
What are the chances we see ‘Real Amish Housewives?’
73: I’ve taken to using replies from Frank, etc. used on this board to go along with it for a bit. Like how it’s all media created and the schools,etc. are worth the taxes. It makes the reaction to the “reality-based” offer that much more enjoyable.
ruggles [77],
Send the seller a sympathy card.
#68 silera: I do nto find it offensive either, just something a little off about it.
However the seller will be taking a nasty loss thats for sure.
DL, that’s probably accurate. Anyway, it’s so different there it took me 5 minutes to find a house in Wynnewood that is under water.
Bought in ’04 for 450k
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/1518-James-Rd_Wynnewood_PA_19096_1109076087
#35 ben –
It’s frustrating, isn’t it? I was a liberal for years, thinking that was the best way to freedom. But ultimately I realized I was a libertarian.
My mother and my liberal friends thought I was to the right of the right wing because I supported the 2nd amendment and began to doubt that FDR was a saint.
My right wing friends thought I was a communist because I was against ReaganBush and endless war.
And none of them understood the real basis for my opposition to centralized government – they each opposed it in turn when the “other side” was in, but swung back to total support when “their guys” were in.
All I want is the *truth* no matter where the chips land. I don’t agree with Ron Paul 100% on everything, but it sure was refreshing to hear some truth out of a politician’s mouth for a change!
I agree with you, I respect any economist who brings truth, whether it’s Roubini, Schiff, or the Mises crew. I detest Krugman for his unwavering support of economic nonsense, no matter how much he claims now to have predicted the mess we’re in now. Sure, he started to have an inkling about the same time anyone else did who wasn’t solely focused on American Idol… big deal.
Grim,
you have to wonder what the tax situation looks like for mendham. I know of a number of other houses that are in a similar situation to the one i posted.
million $ homes losing 30% of their value in months will ultimately have a devastating impact on tax receipts.
wow, markets actually reacting to horrible employment realities.
im surprised we are not rallying on that news.
I have spoke to quite a few people over the last few days, all supposedly educated informed, etc. and not one knew that Corzines proposal to cap property tax deductions (for a year, yeah right) was approved.
Of course outrage, “that is unbelieveable”, “who do we call”, “I am writing a letter”, “I am out out of here” etc.
I just said hey dude its done, nothing you can do.
3b I think your old faithful River Edge Mausoleum one should be the cover photo of a yet to be made coffee table book about the birth and demise of the McMansion.
Sometimes I just get sad and wish I could by a nice house for like 200K. I don’t need blue ribbon schools, or train towns. Blue collar is where I feel most comfortable.
Actually, I think the best thing that can happen out of all of this is that a lot of my blue collar neighbors can stop thinking their s*** doesn’t stink because they paved their driveways and parked an escalade on it.
veto 87
wait ’til 3:40 pm.
sl
another point on that 3 aster terrace house.
It has a 1 car garage due to the house bumping up on the edge of the lot, and the garage is so small that a SUV cannot open the doors all the way if pulled in, and forget about opening the back hatch.
Did anyone read the Rolling Stone article by Matt Taibbi regarding Goldman Sachs?
I found the full text on another site and it’s damning. Still sifting through the second half now…
sl
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3159732
link.
sl
[11] PA Bound
“I hope none of Nom Deplume’s clients are on this list…”
No comment
[88] 3b
“nothing you can do”
Actually, there is something you can do. And the time is this November.
And remind everyone that the problem is not just in the governor’s office. A vote against the imcumbent assembly sends a very strong signal as well.
Everyone who wants to send a message should vote against the incumbent (unless you really feel strongly that your imcumbent is not POTP). Either they are out (problem solved) or they come so close to losing that they get religion.
Apologies for length….
This is towards the end of the article… it is in reference to Cap/Trade.
BUBBLE #6 – GLOBAL WARMING
Fast-Forward to today. It’s early June in Washington, D.C. Barack Obama, a popular young politician whose leading private campaign donor was an investment bank called Goldman Sachs – its employees paid some $981,000 to his campaign – sits in the White House. Having seamlessly navigated the political minefield of the bailout era, Goldman is once again back to its old business, scouting out loopholes in a new government-created market with the aid of a new set of alumni occupying key government jobs.
AS ENVISIONED BY GOLDMAN, THE FIGHT TO STOP GLOBAL WARMING WILL BECOME A “CARBON MARKET” WORTH $1 TRILLION A YEAR.
Gone are Hank Paulson and Neel Kashkari; in their place are Treasury chief of staff Mark Patterson and CFTC chief Gary Gensler, both former Goldmanites. (Gensler was the firm’s co-head of finance) And instead of credit derivatives or oil futures or mortgage-backed CDOs, the new game in town, the next bubble, is in carbon credits – a booming trillion-dollar market that barely even exists yet, but will if the Democratic Party that it gave $4,452,585 to in the last election manages to push into existence a groundbreaking new commodities bubble, disguised as an “environmental plan,” called cap-and-trade.
The new carbon-credit market is a virtual repeat of the commodities-market casino that’s been kind to Goldman, except it has one delicious new wrinkle: If the plan goes forward as expected, the rise in prices will be government-mandated. Goldman won’t even have to rig the game. It will be rigged in advance.
Here’s how it works: If the bill passes; there will be limits for coal plants, utilities, natural-gas distributors and numerous other industries on the amount of carbon emissions (a.k.a. greenhouse gases) they can produce per year. If the companies go over their allotment, they will be able to buy “allocations” or credits from other companies that have managed to produce fewer emissions. President Obama conservatively estimates that about $646 billions worth of carbon credits will be auctioned in the first seven years; one of his top economic aides speculates that the real number might be twice or even three times that amount.
The feature of this plan that has special appeal to speculators is that the “cap” on carbon will be continually lowered by the government, which means that carbon credits will become more and more scarce with each passing year. Which means that this is a brand-new commodities market where the main commodity to be traded is guaranteed to rise in price over time. The volume of this new market will be upwards of a trillion dollars annually; for comparison’s sake, the annual combined revenues of an electricity suppliers in the U.S. total $320 billion.
Goldman wants this bill. The plan is (1) to get in on the ground floor of paradigm-shifting legislation, (2) make sure that they’re the profit-making slice of that paradigm and (3) make sure the slice is a big slice. Goldman started pushing hard for cap-and-trade long ago, but things really ramped up last year when the firm spent $3.5 million to lobby climate issues. (One of their lobbyists at the time was none other than Patterson, now Treasury chief of staff.) Back in 2005, when Hank Paulson was chief of Goldman, he personally helped author the bank’s environmental policy, a document that contains some surprising elements for a firm that in all other areas has been consistently opposed to any sort of government regulation. Paulson’s report argued that “voluntary action alone cannot solve the climate-change problem.” A few years later, the bank’s carbon chief, Ken Newcombe, insisted that cap-and-trade alone won’t be enough to fix the climate problem and called for further public investments in research and development. Which is convenient, considering that ‘Goldman made early investments in wind power (it bought a subsidiary called Horizon Wind Energy), renewable diesel (it is an investor in a firm called Changing World Technologies) and solar power (it partnered with BP Solar), exactly the kind of deals that will prosper if the government forces energy producers to use cleaner energy. As Paulson said at the time, “We’re not making those investments to lose money.”
The bank owns a 10 percent stake in the Chicago Climate Exchange, where the carbon credits will be traded. Moreover, Goldman owns a minority stake in Blue Source LLC, a Utah-based firm that sells carbon credits of the type that will be in great demand if the bill passes. Nobel Prize winner Al Gore, who is intimately involved with the planning of cap-and-trade, started up a company called Generation Investment Management with three former bigwigs from Goldman Sachs Asset Management, David Blood, Mark Ferguson and Peter Harris. Their business? Investing in carbon offsets. There’s also a $500 million Green Growth Fund set up by a Goldmanite to invest in green-tech … the list goes on and on. Goldman is ahead of the headlines again, just waiting for someone to make it rain in the right spot. Will this market be bigger than the energy-futures market?
“Oh, it’ll dwarf it,” says a former staffer on the House energy committee.
Well, you might say, who cares? If cap-and-trade succeeds, won’t we all be saved from the catastrophe of global warming? Maybe – but cap-and-trade, as envisioned by Goldman, is really just a carbon tax structured so that private interests collect the revenues. Instead of simply imposing a fixed government levy on carbon pollution and forcing unclean energy producers to pay for the mess they make, cap-and trade will allow a small tribe of greedy-as-hell Wall Street swine to turn yet another commodities market into a private tax-collection scheme. This is worse than the bailout: It allows the bank to seize taxpayer money before it’s even collected.
“If it’s going to be a tax, I would prefer that Washington set the tax and collect it,” says Michael Masters, the hedge fund director who spoke out against oil-futures speculation. “But we’re saying that Wall Street can set the tax, and Wall Street can collect the tax. That’s the last thing in the world I want. It’s just asinine.”
Cap-and-trade is going to happen. Or, if it doesn’t, something like it will. The moral is the same as for all the other bubbles that Goldman helped create, from 1929 to 2009. In almost every case, the very same bank that behaved recklessly for years, weighing down the system with toxic loans and predatory debt, and accomplishing nothing but massive bonuses for a few bosses, has been rewarded with mountains of virtually free money and government guarantees – while the actual victims in this mess, ordinary taxpayers, are the ones paying for it.
sl
“incumbent” even. (damn thumbs)
@88 3b,
I emailed my buddy the same news and his response: “thanks for being the destroyer”
I just may have found my new handle.
sl (90)-
When the rest of the world lines up against 3 computers trading with each other, it’ll be no contest.
All the recent rises, with no volume and no .vix, will be blasted to smithereens within moments. Worst of all, there will be no liquidity to fill the breech. What little liquidity is being pumped into the market right now will be vaporized in the first assault.
#89 – a yet to be made coffee table book about the birth and demise of the McMansion
Ohh, that’s a good idea. The McMansion as a metaphor for both the American dream and the American empire.
million $ homes losing 30% of their value in months will ultimately have a devastating impact on tax receipts.
If assessments fall, the local municipalities will have no choice but to raise the tax rate to compensate.
We know they won’t cut services and jobs to compensate, so there really isn’t any other alternative.
Fighting for a lower assessment is a short-term solution. If enough people do it, tax receipts fall. Ultimately everyone will take a hit when the rate is bumped to increase revenue.
Think of it as the paradox of tax appeal.
tbiggs,
it’s nice to know that there are people out there who get it. I’m in the same boat. Despite my independence of thought, I get labeled as right wing by liberals and liberal by right wingers.
As far as economists go…guys like Dean Baker, Nouriel Roubini, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, and others don’t let partisan nonsense get in the way of their Intellectual Integrity. On the other hand, left wingers like Brad Delong, Paul Krugman and right wingers like Greg Mankiw all practice intellectual dishonesty at the expense of resorting to partisan politics. As an academic myself, I find it disgusting.
As a scientist, if I were to draw scientific conclusions by cherry picking data to put forth my political agenda, I would be shunned and kicked out of school. They give these guys rewards.
Can someone tell me the deal on 49 Crest Drive in Bernardsville?
It was on the market as a short sale, off the market now back on. Seems very cheap, $400K under where it last sold.
pol clot , SL
did you see the announcement that NYSE will now stop reporting DPTR data.
yes its zerohedge…
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/nyse-halts-transparency-feels-goldman.html
NYSE has rebutted that its not really removing the data just “eliminating duplicate data”
Grim 110
at what point do the tax payers say “enough” and force a reduction in service? mendham will hold out longer then most as many see the high property taxes as a barrier to entry for the “less desirable” but we will see how much pain in the checkbook it takes to change that idea
cobbler’s comment from last night seems pretty accurate to me. not sure how we would stop globalization though, except if shipping/energy gets too costly
“Unfortunately, inflation is the only way to resolve the debt crisis other than by bankrupting 1/3 of the populace, 2/3 of the states and the USG to top the pile. It is also the only way (unless we are willing to completely get rid of the free trade policies – which I think will be a tremendous thing to do.The dirty little secret about beggar thy neighbor policies is that they actually work for the majority of the population; they are really bad for the investment bankers) to stop and hopefully reverse the decline of the U.S. productive economy. Overall, we need to design the most painless way to step on a sea urchin – how to reduce the average consumption by 20-30% and not cause social unrest…”
Skeptic,
The cap&trade system that is about to be put into effect could substantially reduce gloablism.
I posted the article yesterday that the WTO ruled that nations could put tariffs on imports form nations that failed to follow the program and it would not violate trade laws.
SO if india/china/cambodia want to make cheap junk with slave labor and no environmental laws, the US could legally apply an “equalization” tariff on the imported goods. this would shut down a lot of the industrial exodus and globalization in general if the US government actually followed through
This is conservative op-ed, but I seem to remember Schabadoo castigating me with snark (oh, the pain) for prophesizing something along these lines:
“America isn’t hiring precisely because of government policy. Small business owners, who are usually the first into and the first out of the job pool, are standing by the fence and watching. They are paralyzed by regulatory uncertainty. If they hire someone who ends up doing poorly, will they be able to fire that person? Will they have to pay their health care bills after they’ve been terminated? If so, for how long? Who will pay for all these stimulus checks? If it will turn out to be small business, why would they hire instead of keeping costs low to prepare for the big tax bill? . . .
Jobs aren’t languishing despite the government’s best efforts. They’re languishing because of them.”
Don’t get me wrong. The Messiah has actually been good for my business (which I described as being vulture-like in that we will be surviving off the corpse of the economy), but that doesn’t necessarily bode well for many of you, sorry to say.
[107] kettle,
That will happen, because it has to. The problem, of course, is that we cannot enter into a full-blown trade war with our biggest creditor, but the administration cannot ignore the revenue or the fact that reducing imports may restore some mfg.
Of course, it means higher prices ultimately, which is one reason we are shopping for durable goods now.
104: Great, now you guys have this stuck in my head:
Rainbow
Can’t Happen Here lyrics
Contaminated fish and micro chips
Huge supertankers on arabian trips
Oily propaganda from the leaders’ lips
All about the future
There’s people over here, people over there
Everybody’s looking for a little more air
Crossing all the borders just to take their share
Planning for the future
And we’re so abused, and we’re so confused
It’s easy to believe that someone’s gonna light the fuse
Can’t happen here, can’t happen here
All that you fear they’re telling you, can’t happen here
Supersonic planes for a holiday boom
Rio de janeiro in an afternoon
People out of work but there’s people on the moon
Looking for the future
Concrete racktracks nationwide
Juggernauts carving up the countryside
Cars by the million on a one way ride
Using up the future
And we’re so abused, and we’re so confused
It’s easy to believe that someone’s gonna light the fuse
Can’t happen here, can’t happen here
All that you fear they’re telling you, can’t happen here
Satellites spying for the cia
The kgb and the men in grey
Wonder if I’m gonna see another day
Somewhere in the future
We got everything we need for a peaceful time
Take what you want but you can’t take mine
Everybody’s living on the siegfried line
Worried ’bout the future
And we’re so abused, and we’re so confused
It’s so easy to believe that someone’s gonna light it
Easy to believe someone’s gonna light the fuse
Can’t happen here, can’t happen here
All that you fear they’re telling you, can’t happen here can it?
(108)-
Using the Free Republic to make your point? What else did you expect them to say?
Simply the fact that this is GDII will sufficiently explain everything. Too much debt –> No demand, no jobs –> lesser demand. Vicious circle.
Unless we identify the core reason why we are in such a mess, then there will be no viable solutions. Finance is too big a part of the economy. It is the tail which is wagging the dog. I blame the current administration for following the exact policies of Bush Co. in this regard. Unless the govt stands up to the banksters and relegates Finance to its original supporting role, we have no hope.
My wife and I recently put an offer in on a house. Our offer was 10% below asking price. The offer is in line with recent comps, taking into account a 1% decrease in price per month where the comp was several months old. I believe the offer was fair. We are putting 20% down with 800+ FICO.
When we placed the offer the other realtor intimated they had at least one other offer coming in. Today they decided they wanted to wait a week to make a decision on the offer(s).
My feeling is they didn’t get an offer they liked; maybe ours was the only one. We like the house the best of any we’ve seen so far, our closing on our townhouse is the end of August, and baby number two is coming later this month.
Would you put a time limit on the offer? How long?
Humm. Cutting price to move product that is not selling. WHAT a concept.
112: My humble opinion is to give them the weekend. Good luck.
Grim –
I have been making that point to people for some time now regarding lower house prices, tax reassesments, and mil rates. A municipalities budget is “X”, and they will collect that, either through assessed values or mil rate. Only spending less will change that.
This one is for SaS, CNN is reporting.
Air France 447 did not break up in flight, but “went straight down, almost vertically,” investigators say.
#112
same thing happened to me in December. They are shopping your bid. If you really want the house, you should give them 24 hrs to accept and say if they do not respond by the deadline, your offer expires.
who wants to fly?
Aircraft repair jobs sold to foreign workers, resumes not important.
A News 8 investigation found that hundreds of aircraft mechanics have been brought into the United States to work at aircraft repair facilities.
Insiders say the companies that are importing the mechanics are so eager to save money, they’re overstating their qualifications. The result may be a threat to safety, abetted by lax enforcement of immigration law.
…”We had two,” she said. “One of them was a female. She was about 16. It was a brother and a sister. One guy was a grocery bagger, one was a security guard in Puerto Rico. Their ages were between 18 and 22.”
http://www.wfaa.com/sharedcontent/dws/wfaa/latestnews/stories/wfaa090630_mo_harris.23327cea.html
sean,
from what i have heard the plane would have had to break up at altitude to spread the debris and bodies as wide as they were found
grim, 118 in mod for reasons unknown
#112:
Give them a 3 day window to respond. If they don’t, you move on.
Don’t worry, your baby #2 will be just ok.
You have the sellers by their b@lls, so don’t lose the upperhand in negotiations.
#89 silera: Yes the masoleum is my all tiem favorite.. People in a lot of towns blue ribbon or otherwise, are now starting to find out that gee they really are not affluent, but just plain old middle class.And some of those are going to find out they are actually poor.
#95 nom: Not happening in my opinion. How could a major change like capping property taxes on NJ income taxes go through without a wimper? We are supposed to be so well educated, and so well informed, and so savvy, and yet it appears that so many did not even know about it.
And again the vested interests will come out and instruct the people on how they should vote.
School budgets next year should be defeated across the board, heck they should have been defeated across the board this year, but mabye now that the cap on deductions will eventually become common knowledge, people will finally wake up.
vodka (104)-
That’s so nobody will notice that GS is blocking out the sun.
Goota love those Corzine ads I see all over the web, what bull spit.
“He saw this nations recession coming” “so he did something about it.” “He created the first economic stimuls plan” “and it is already working for NJ”.
Johnny Boy if you saw this downturn coming how come you didn’t pull the State pension money out of the markets? How come you invested more in Lehman days before they went under?
further proof of sheeple (can’t say i disagree w/ the masses here though:
“Our research showed there is a multiplication effect, where the social pressure not to default is weakened when homeowners live in areas of high frequency of foreclosures or know others who defaulted strategically,”
http://tinyurl.com/qqgmuu
[124] 3b
It’s been said “In a democracy, you get the government you deserve.” At least on the global level.
So if the sheeple are contented and numerous, and don’t change business as usual, they will either suffer or they won’t. And those who can avoid suffering, will. And the pattern we are in continues until we have run out of other people’s money.
“When you don’t see problems who knows they exist. It is nice to get a break from this newspaper created recession.”
Wow. Not only is the pen mightier than the sword; it is mightier than reality!
“Can somebody help me in describing the below listing?
Anyhow new to the market asking price is 625k. Last sold in January 2007 for 759K. Taxes are just under a dreamy 13k.
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2929686&id=999999”
Candy-like?
For $25,000 to $250,000, The Washington Post is offering lobbyists and association executives off-the-record, nonconfrontational access to “those powerful few” — Obama administration officials, members of Congress, and the paper’s own reporters and editors.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0709/24441.html#ixzz0K6ZL2GHc&D
plume (108)-
As a fellow blood-sucking maggot, all I can say is that I hope O gets two terms.
Short sales and distressed property work has never been better.
Love Phony/Fraudy’s new 125 LTV announcement. Just an extension of the same 105 LTV policy that has helped pretty much nobody.
[125] sean
“He saw this nations recession coming” “so he did something about it.”
At least he could have used vaseline.
130: Great, let’s all chip in. Maybe we could put together a softball game or something? WTF?
re: #129 is that a one and a half car garage?
Didn’t Egypt Air also go straight down like that?
Ben says:
July 2, 2009 at 8:42 am
As for Schiff’s strategy, it’s clearly obvious you are referencing the attack pieces that floated around February. The sad part is, when the entire investment community tried turning on Schiff earlier this year, all the things he was begging people to buy at that time have had rallies of 70-250%!
He’s already stated that 2009 has been the best year for Europacific clients so far. I have an account with Schiff and it lost 60% in October. I reinvested another 20% in October and December… I already made up what I lost 8 months ago.
Ben: I am strongly against Schiff. In my opinion you sound thoughtful, informed and objective. In contrast, if I did not have the benefit of your posts on this thread and other recent posts, I would assume that you have quaffed massive amounts of his kool-aid.
Schiff was not attacked in the media. He brought it on himself. He spun it to his clients that he was attacked. You appear to be taking his word for it. I agree that his book must be doing well in 2009, because he has disappeared from the landscape. Several months ago, he was out trolling for more money after he torched accounts in 2008. I guess you willingly offered it up.
To be clear….anyone who has made leveraged bets on risky investments in the last six months has tremendously outperformed….so?
I am not denigrating Schiff, but he is not some genius or savior. At best, he is an aggressive marketer, and has one approach and will stick to it, because that is his “schtick” to draw in the greatest amount of AUM possible.
There is another Schiff client on these threads….make money (albani).
ben
breathe
“emember when the Messiah signed the stimulus bill and promised that hed save or create 3.5 million jobs? Well, in the last 5 months, weve lost aproximately 2,500,000 jobs. Thats the equivalent of being down 21 – 0 after the first quarter of the football game”
The beauty — and I admire the brazenness of this — is how they defined success. It is not creating jobs above a certain point but creating or saving. Who is to say which job or another was “saved” by his policies? It was brilliant. No matter what, he gets to declare victory.
126: My sister, visiting from FL, told me of an ex-neighbor who bought a still thriving business with her “home equity” pre-peak. This individual recently walked away from the mtg and 2nd (she was still able but unwilling to pay) as she no longer liked the neighborhood (gated, all ameneties, etc.) She simply no longer wanted to live there and had no hope of selling. Bought another house first and, based on other neighbors who still occupy homes 12-18 mos. after making their most recent payment, goes about her day as if this were normal. Banks and Sheriff are too inundated to keep up with the pace.
But really, things are atabilizing.
59 3b
“This lot ends as a cliff that over looks the back of a dry cleaners”
Is there a retaining wall with a crack in it?
If so, duck!!
[Grim, if this posts with modifications, you can kill 118 in mod]
[111] vic,
Actually, it was CNBC, but a Cudlow follower, which you probably put in the same camp as American skinheds.
And since I expected some smack, here’s more grist for the mill (from liberal sources no less):
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/small-business/2009/03/data_show_small_firms_hiring_c.html
http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/02/smallbusiness/fair_pay_act.smb/index.htm?postversion=2009020212
http://boss.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/16/how-the-stimulus-package-actually-discourages-hiring/?apage=2
To be fair, the cobra extension is neutral, but that fact simply reflects the recognition that to make it otherwise would have the deleterious effect.
http://writercpa.com/blog/2009/02/
#127 nom: That is why democracy may be over rated. Why have a democracy if so many are uninformed and don’t care.
And yet we are running around the world telling everybody else, they should be just like us. I love America, but we need to get over ourselves.
Vic, tried twice to post some support but both in mod. Am not trying to rebut your post since it goes off on a tangent.
#129 meter: There you go, I like that, candy like or a little gingerbready.
[143] 3b
technically, we are a republic, not a democracy. Can you imagine if we had pure democracy with full suffrage and a near-idiot populace?
Remember, Socrates was ordered put to death by popular vote.
“Companies Stockpiling Cash, Credit Access Still Tight, AFP Survey Shows”
42% increase short-term holdings; most move to more conservative vehicles
With little easing in access to credit, U.S. organizations are continuing to stockpile cash, according the Association for Financial Professionals’ 2009 Liquidity Survey. Almost three-quarters (72%) of companies had increased or maintained their U.S. cash balances during the first part of 2009.
http://www.afponline.org/pub/res/news/ns_20090630_liquidit.html
Green Shoots!!!
Howard Simons:
“Commercial paper, those short-term IOU’s corporations issue to finance operations, inventories and receivables, has declined to the lowest level since August 1998, the time of the Russian crisis and LTCM ruckus. Asset-backed CP, based on mortgages, car loans, credit cars and the like, is at its lowest since January 2001.
All through the crisis conditions of late 2008, I was asked by reporters covering this market when the crisis would be over. My answer, always tongue-in-cheek but always consistent, was “when you stop asking me about it.” As long as it is newsworthy, we have a problem.
The Federal Reserve’s commercial paper funding facility (CPFF), another of their alphabet soup programs, has helped bring spreads back into normal levels, but liquidity has disappeared. This is evidence of 1) lower financing needs, and 2) lower demand for CP by buyers such as money market funds.
As such, CP levels are a good barometer of coincident economic activity. Its picture is negative still.”
Yep, stabilizing.
look what i just came across,
————-
Cracked Houses: What the Boom Built
Robert and Kay Lynn lay in bed shortly after closing on their new home in the Blue Oaks subdivision in Rancho Murieta, Calif., abutting an 18-hole golf course. They were listening to the “pop, pop, pop” of what they thought were acorns falling onto the roof. The Lynns soon realized those were not acorns dropping on the roof. “Little did we know it was the house cracking,” says Mrs. Lynn, 67 years old. Mr. Lynn, 68, says they bought the property in 2002 for $357,000 as a weekend home and an investment. The stucco house was moving and shifting, with part of it subtly pitching toward the golf course, resulting in cracks and fissures in the walls, ceiling and floors, the couple says.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203872404574258531574049434.html
————-
90% of the housing stock created in the last 8 years is garbage
#60 kettle1,
In the end i think the massive amount of renovations done during the run up will end up destroying value in housing.
I think you are right. Even if the granite isn’t radioactive it is still porous and can grow mold.
As my grandfather used to say about a buying a house with a view. “you can’t eat it, wear it, and after a while you get tired of looking at it”.
I think the same can be said of 50k+ kitchens with designer appliances, granite counters, and high end cabinetry.
more from article
Charlene Croal, 34, a consultant, says it would cost $228,000 to fix her nearly nine-year-old house in North Branch, Minn., though the house would be valued at only $190,000 today if it were in good condition. Its interior is riddled with mold because of water seepage, partly caused by a faulty roof and poorly installed windows, she says. She and her husband relocated their family of seven because of health problems linked to the mold, says Ms. Croal, who did not name the builder.
Owners of defective properties say they’re finding it even harder to get repairs now because of rising builder bankruptcies. Some builders, especially smaller ones, also carried inadequate liability insurance, construction experts say. Other homeowners say they are hamstrung by mandatory binding arbitration clauses in purchase contracts and new-home warranties, as well as “right to cure” laws, which require homeowners to notify builders and give them a chance to remedy a defect before the homeowners can file a lawsuit
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203872404574258531574049434.html
I would give them 24 hours, maybe a little more. I would tell them this is the highestyou will ever offer. If thry reject it and end up coming back to you, I would offer 1% less for each month or part thereof that passes from your first offer to the next.
safe,
i have seen a few beautiful old homes that were completely destroyed by bubblicious renovations. great detail work and solid material were ripped out and replaced with the Home Depot special, PVC and press/particle board
Grim 101 – Only the folks who don’t appeal take an even bigger hit.
And a surprising amount of folks don’t file. our previous owner didn’t, and until our revaluation, we paid more in taxes than our next door neighbor who hs a 3700+ SF renovated home on a similarly sized lot. Our home is 2300SF and unreovated.
As I mentioned previouslym our elderly next door neighbors are getting completely screwed (assessed between 110 and 115 percent of mrket value) while 1/3 of the useable sales for 700k+ homes between 10/0/ and 10/08 were assessed below 85% of their sales price. And we are only 2 years post revaluation. This is not going to be pretty in the long run.
Oh and BTW, Bermuda is great. We’re finally getting some sun and chilling at Horseshoe Bay Beach. Although drinking Dark and Stormys while lil Gator napped in the pub was pretty good too.
Gator. Horseshoe Bay Beach is one of my top 10 favorite beaches. Enjoy.
109 nom
“The problem, of course, is that we cannot enter into a full-blown trade war with our biggest creditor”
Damn. Seemed like such a good idea!
#151 kettle1,
Me too. quite sad. So much borrowing capacity, so little taste.
I won my tax appeal stipulated to 2002 brand new homes equal size assesment.Mine is a second home bought in 2004 pre construction took delivery in 2006 with the 2006 assesment.Good enough?
#144 nom: Understood. But we advertise ourselves as a democracy, and our democratic system and values etc.
As far as a near idiot population, I think we are pretty close to being at that stage now.
There is hope for all those state employees being laid off in Cali:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31708753
” . . .Enter filmmaker Jeremy Redleaf, who has done the impossible of making odd jobs seem cool with job-listing site Odd JobNation.com, which launched in February. . . . Sure, it has your typical odd jobs, but also some listings you might not expect:
. . . Fake Employee. An ad agency laid off a bunch of its employees, but wanted to keep up appearances when a big client came to the office. So, they posted a listing for “fake employees” to just sit at the desks and look busy. Pay: $15 an hour.”
Think about it. State workers are better than anyone at looking busy and doing nothing.
(expect Cindy to flame me any moment now).
Re: NYC prices
$405k for a studio….I remember the first guy from work who bought when I started in the city in the late 80s. A studio for $90k. Not being from the tri-state area I was stunned first off that someone would live in one room and then that they would pay that amount for it, which at the time would have purchased a 4Br/3Ba ranch on an acre where I came from….
112 hughes
“Would you put a time limit on the offer? How long?”
I’ve put offers on 5 different houses in the last month, at no higher than 15% off asking, and each one expired the following day at noon.
No one needs more than a couple of hours to consider an offer, unless they’re shopping it around.
118 kettle
“who wants to fly?”
My father, who used to design aircraft (and missiles), does not.
And that’s all I need to know.
135 shore
“Didn’t Egypt Air also go straight down like that?”
Let’s rephrase that:
Didn’t they also tell us that Egypt Air went straight down like that?
Nom
“Socrates was ordered put to death by popular vote.”
Ooofah – that sounds even worse than getting put to death by hanging!
Chicago Finance,
I’m not a Schiff worshiper. I think he’s one of the guys who are on the forefront of solid long term economic forecasting and fundamental analysis. I don’t put my faith in any single Economist. That being said, Schiff is one of the guys out there that I routinely rely on for accurate information. In addition to him, I regularly pay attention to Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Eric Janszen, Jim Puplava, John P. Hussman, among others.
I use Schiff’s firm to gain access to certain foreign markets. That’s it. That being said, in October, I asked them to see what mining stocks they were recommending abroad. At the time, Schiff was actively telling people that the mining stocks have hit bottom, and he was right. They’ve seen gains near 300% since then. I also bought into Skyworth Digital in Singapore on Schiff’s heavy recommendation and got back 250%. I also used them to get in on a bunch of Canadian Energy Trusts back in February. I do not drink any sort of Kool Aid. The fact of the matter is, I was in the same boat as a lot of people who were screaming that their Europac accounts were down significantly. At that time, Schiff was telling people that although their accounts are down, he was constantly lobbying them to buy into a lot of things at that point to come out ahead. The fact of the matter is, I bought some stocks through his firm at the worst possible time in 2008 and lost a lot of money. The fact of the matter is, I’ve already erased those losses today staying the course.
Schiff had 7 or 8 good years leading up to 2008. 2008 was a rough year for him. As far as I can tell, 2009 has been amazing for him, with every stock that he’s been recommending making ridiculously huge gains. His entire portfolio is based upon hedging against the dollar. If the dollar rallies, of course his performance will look bad.
I think he’d done quite a good job for his clients over the long haul and will continue to do so. I think it’s unreasonable to expect anyone to constantly deliver positive returns.
The problem I have is that a lot of people who criticize Schiff are completely off base. If people want to criticize him, they should be going after the fact that he missed the dollar rally last year. On this board, it was brought up that Schiff wasn’t investing in the Dow Rally from 2003 to 2007. This is completely laughable when the gains of everything that Schiff invested in far outpaced the Dow during that entire period.
On top of that, I find it a little disengenous for people to hold a guy like Krugman or Roubini over someone like Schiff simply because Schiff’s accounts didn’t perform well over a short period of time. Krugman was equally clueless keeping all his money in a money market account of an insolvent banking system with no Federal Insurance. Roubini was primarily in US Equities that got hammered. There’s a double standard being applied here.
The take home message of the past day of discussion is that there are credible economists out there and their are also shills.
I still contend that Schiff’s long term macro picture for the US economy is strikingly accurate. His long term outlook on the Dollar mirrors that of what Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Dean Baker, Nouriel Roubini etc… I have a huge issue with anyone that tries to discredit my outlook or these types of views with partisan politics simply because, the afformentioned names that I listed come from all sides of the political spectrum (except maybe the far right).
Meanwhile, Krugman most recently referred to the fear of inflation as a “Right Wing Conspiracy”. I only hope people remember this when they pay over hundred bucks to fill up the gas tank 4 years from now.
Dr. Doom Has Some Good News
PrintShare
Delicious Digg Facebook reddit Technorati Nouriel Roubini | Jun 25, 2009
From the Atlantic:
Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who accurately forecast the bursting of the housing bubble and the resulting economic contraction, has become famous for his pessimism—he has been the gloomiest of the doomsayers. Which is what makes his current outlook surprising: Roubini believes that the Obama administration’s policy makers—and especially the much-maligned Tim Geithner—have gotten a lot right. Pitfalls may still abound, but he is now projecting an end to the recession, and he sees growth ahead.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/
160
I gave them until Sunday at 12:00. I doubt they have another offer.
At 1:00 on Sunday they have an open house, at 12:30 I go back out looking with my realtor.
150 shore
Nasty!
I like it.
gary says:
July 2, 2009 at 8:55 am
“Remember when the Messiah signed the stimulus bill and promised that he’d save or create 3.5 million jobs? Well, in the last 5 months, we’ve lost aproximately 2,500,000 jobs. That’s the equivalent of being down 21 – 0 after the first quarter of the football game.”
Key words are ‘or saved’. Don’t you know we would have lost 6m jobs if not for the stimulus?
Of course, none of the trained monkeys in the press corp has the wherewithal to make the administration break those estimates down between ‘saved’ and ‘created’.
158 Nom
“State workers are better than anyone at looking busy and doing nothing.”
Ya think? I dunno. The ones who are working on the state highway and blocking my way home at 1am do not give even the faintest impression of being busy!
Roubini:
“The question is, can the U.S. grow in a non-bubble way?” He asked the question rhetorically, so I turned it back on him. Can it?
“I think we have to …” He paused. “You know, the potential for our future growth is going to be lower, because of the excesses we’ve had. Sustainable growth may mean investing slowly in infrastructures for the future, and rebuilding our human capital. Renewable resources. Maybe nanotechnology? We don’t know what it’s going to be. There are parts of the economy we can expect to lead to a more sustainable and less bubble-like growth. But it’s going to be a challenge to find a new growth model. It’s not going to be simple.” I took this not as pessimism but as realism.
[169] sir
” I dunno. The ones who are working on the state highway and blocking my way home at 1am do not give even the faintest impression of being busy!’
I wondered if someone was gonna call me on that.
164 ben
“I only hope people remember this when they pay over hundred bucks to fill up the gas tank 4 years from now.”
I’m not sure it’ll take that long, although I probably have slightly different reasons than you do for coming to this conclusion.
YES! I just found two silver dimes in my change- from 1963 & 1964. Was this the ‘change’ BO was talking about?
ben
“Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Dean Baker, Nouriel Roubini etc… I have a huge issue with anyone that tries to discredit my outlook or these types of views with partisan politics simply because, the afformentioned names that I listed come from all sides of the political spectrum (except maybe the far right).”
Huh. So, which one of them is far left?
SirRentsAlot, my mistake. I wouldn’t label Roubini or Baker as far left. I would label them as progressives.
171 nom
I figgered you was jest goin’ fer the rhetorical effect.
175 ben
fair enough
so you’ve got no wingnuts of either flavor on that list.
I’d generally agree.
re: #165 yo’me – Larry Summers to the Fed and Roubini to the White House.
173 Jim
I’d say no, on the basis that anything that’s more than 5 months old is pretty difficult to blame on OB. You need to be more patient.
here’s a so-called expert postulating on why lowballs fail.
http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/articles/2009/06/26/lowball_offers_fail_buyers/
Take it for what its worth.
166: Hmmm,open house on July 4th weekend with “two” offers on the table? The claim of another offer grows more specious.
“here’s a so-called expert postulating on why lowballs fail.”
Hmmm.
Most of the closed sales I’m seeing are 10% or more under asking.
Maybe the same person wrote an article about why layoffs aren’t happening.
hughesrep says:
July 2, 2009 at 1:42 pm
160
“I gave them until Sunday at 12:00. I doubt they have another offer.
At 1:00 on Sunday they have an open house, at 12:30 I go back out looking with my realtor.”
I like it!
“here’s a so-called expert postulating on why lowballs fail.”
#180
most lowballs do fail. you have to be prepared for that. luckily, there is no shortage of inventory and more coming all the time. Sellers are increasingly distressed. The worst thing to do is fall in love with a house and be unwilling to let it go.
3b
Have you ever considered that you’re defeating your own purpose by driving up web traffic to the rivers edge listings?
#185 That to me makes no sense to me. Driving uo traffic to over priced insanely taxed Mc mansions or POS’s? In fact I would think that those that would look at the town might realize there are other alternatives out there.
People like you make me sick. If you want the damn house, up your offer and pay what he’s asking. Stop trying to rip off the damn seller. If it were me, I wouldn’t give you the damn time of day unless you showed some respect and paid me my price. Try to pull that stunt with me and see what happens; you’ll be homeless.
# 112
hughesrep says:
July 2, 2009 at 10:58 am
My wife and I recently put an offer in on a house. Our offer was 10% below asking price. The offer is in line with recent comps, taking into account a 1% decrease in price per month where the comp was several months old. I believe the offer was fair. We are putting 20% down with 800+ FICO.
When we placed the offer the other realtor intimated they had at least one other offer coming in. Today they decided they wanted to wait a week to make a decision on the offer(s).
My feeling is they didn’t get an offer they liked; maybe ours was the only one. We like the house the best of any we’ve seen so far, our closing on our townhouse is the end of August, and baby number two is coming later this month.
Would you put a time limit on the offer? How long?
yeah 3b, you should stop posting links to river edge homes. That alone is going to push prices up through the roof in that town.
prices will double on your links alone.
A mortgage broker friend of mine was saying last weekend that he knew someone who bought a place out near Clinton. He proudly said the appraisal came in at worth over $100,000 more than he paid.
I said “that’s the new comp for the area then”. He didn’t say anything after that.
If you can wait, why beat yourself up with lowball offers to idiot sellers and brokers? Let the other people fight to get the comps lower. Then, go in with hard evidence that their precious POS is only worth $XXX,XXX. You can’t argue with a closed sale.
LaMonica Breaking out the weedwhacker:
“NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — It looks like someone may have sprayed a healthy dose of Ortho Weed B Gon on those economic green shoots.
So much for the notion of “less bad” numbers being good enough to get people excited about the economy. There was nothing “less bad” — let alone good — in the latest monthly employment report.
The number of jobs lost in June was higher than in May and worse than expected. The unemployment rate inched up again, continuing its steady march toward 10%. And the length of the average workweek slipped to a record low while wages were flat. That means that for those who do have a job, they are working fewer hours and getting a smaller paycheck.
“Let’s start with the good news. There is none,” said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist with PNC Financial Services in Pittsburgh.”There is no silver lining in this report. The economy is still in the grips of the recession.’ . . .”
reinvestor101,
LOL..you crack me up
Have a good 4th!!!!!
#188 veto: Oh yeah, driving those prices right up!!! Am I missing somemthing with the original posters post?
I’m not sure if traffic for a particular listing or not, it was mostly tounge-in-cheek.
But checking on the same overpriced stuff day after day seems like an excercise in futility.
*traffic is tracked*
Offers put in writing are the only traffic that matters.
*traffic is tracked*
nwnj, im glad to hear you were joking.
if they think a million people are interested in the house because they get a million internet hits, then they are senile.
And who cares if they dont lower the price. let the place sit for years.
It makes for great entertainment.
From MarketWatch:
Consumer Bankruptcy Filings Rose 36.5% in First Half, ABI Says
U.S. consumers made 675,351 bankruptcy filings in the first half, a 36.5 percent increase from a year ago, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute.
June filings by consumers totaled 116,365, up 40.6 percent from the same period in 2008, the ABI said in a release. The monthly rate of consumer filings slowed, however, declining by 6.8 percent from May 2009.
“Consumers are turning to bankruptcy as a last financial resort,” said ABI Executive Director Samuel Gerdano.
Gerdano said in the release he expects 1.4 million new bankruptcy filings by year end.
In an effort to continue to push up River Edge housing prices, I offer the following listing below. It has been posted here before, but for those who may have missed it, and for those who did not see it, here you go.Oh and the taxes you might ask, well just a mere $12,000.00 per year.
Please keep in mind however, that all you weatlhy people making 150K a year will only be able to write off 5k of that 12k. And for the uber wealthy at 250k, well no write off for you.
But it is only for 1 year we are told;hmmm, yeah, right,cough,cough.
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2927063&id=999999
#194 nwnj: Did not realize you were kidding. (I have the real bizzare lsitings in my favorites, so easy to post)
If anything I hope that if any sellers and or realtors do visit this blog, they just might stop and think, before they put these lost causes on the market.
Lots of people find this blog because they Google house addresses or MLS numbers that are posted in the comments.
I’ve gotten hate mail from agents telling me that owners of their listings have come across negative comments here.
grim – hate mail is good, almost as good as hate sex.
#187
You’re a moron. People like *you* make me sick. Greedy bastard.
grim
Can they see unique page views of listings?
#201 grim:I’ve gotten hate mail from agents telling me that owners of their listings have come across negative comments here basically on accident.
I think the agents should tell their sellers to grow up. Its nothing personal.
If you list some POS hellhole with a ridiculous asking price, coupled with insane taxes, than expect to have negative comments made.
And perhaps the realtors might tell their poor offended sellers, that they might want to clean the dump up, before they take pictures of it.
#199 – I’m so digging that `76 Olds in the driveway. It completely compliments the interior.
#206 – Right on.
In that kitchen picture, is that linoleum on the walls, or wallpaper on the floor?
gman (203)
Ever consider the possibility that it’s someone just having fun stirring up the pot?
“reinvestor101 says:
People like you make me sick.”
Hey hughesrep – now you KNOW you’re doing the right thing! What better confirmation could there be?!?
“grim:I’ve gotten hate mail from agents telling me that owners of their listings have come across negative comments here basically on accident.”
Oh. My. God.
Someone call the waaaaahmbulance!!!!
dow down 200+ it’s 3:32 pm – time to call the PPT out of their watering hole and get busy.
sl
209
Absolutely, I guess I can only aspire to be a terrorist.
#207 grim: Yeah, shows real pride of ownership. These old geezers have probably lived in that house for years, and never once thought to maybe paint it, or update it a little. Oh no, absolutely not.
Now they want to sell and of course they feel entitled to big bucks, and they expect the big bucks even with the 12k a year in taxes, and in the middle of a severe recession.
Old geezers or not, they can go scratch.
Fireworks!
Rally on!
What??? Let me tell you something. I’m not about to accept less than what I deserve. Do you work like a damn dog and accept half pay? Hell, if you want to do that, that’s fine by me and don’t expect me to do the same, so if that’s greedy, so be it. I don’t give a shlt. I just want my damn money.
gman says:
July 2, 2009 at 3:23 pm
#187
You’re a moron. People like *you* make me sick. Greedy bastard.
No pop today. Federal holiday tomorrow, the ‘buyer’ has left the building already.
I lover haters! Happy 4th everyone!!
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Foreclosures to Peak in Late 2010, Meyer Says
U.S. foreclosures will peak in the second half of 2010 and home prices will continue to decline through the end of that year, according to Barclays Capital.
“Home prices are likely to continue to fall, albeit at a slowing pace, even after the economy technically emerges from the recession,” Michelle Meyer, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York, said in a report today. Prices may drop another 7 percent, she said, based on the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 U.S. cities.
The three-year-old housing slump has slashed U.S. home prices 33 percent since their July 2006 peak, according to S&P/Case-Shiller. Prospective buyers are constrained by rising mortgage rates, the highest unemployment since 1983 and the longest recession of the post-World War II era.
U.S. homeowners trying to sell are competing with a glut of discounted foreclosures. It would take about 9.6 months to sell the nation’s 3.8 million unsold homes at the current sales pace, according to the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors.
Foreclosures probably will rise to a record 2.5 million this year, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors.
I can’t stand you. Punk.
gman says:
July 2, 2009 at 3:58 pm
I lover haters! Happy 4th everyone
tard (219)-
I hope an M80 blows up in your hand this weekend.
remeber how things were going to be great in the second half of 09?
#219
Close your legs I can smell your vag*na from here! Nuff said, pig!
201: I thought any press was good press. If the POS sells, who cares, if it lingers and shows up on this site, maybe they should re-evaluate.
Low ball lower than you think is possible. The valuations of anything is highly suspect. A gallon of gas at $4.00 a year ago now is $2.70 – same gas / same gallon. Retirement funds have lost on average 40% or so. Houses are no different. That million $ house from 2006/7 is now worth what? – $750k or maybe $1.2 million? I say err on the low side as the trend is your friend.
Bank Failure Friday!
Two banks closed so far this afternoon:
http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09114.html
http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09113.html
This house has boggled my mind for almost a year:
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2852689&id=999999
hey movedtovermont – I’m going to come join you one of these days. I fully plan to become an eventual resident of Brattleboro or environs.
pick NH over VT. Live free or die.
SirRentsalot
Please do – I suggest southern Vt. 60% of all people are probably from NJ – all came here for the same reasons. NJ is great – especially the shore – but at what price? The numbers no longer add up in NJ and there is no mechanism I see which will turn this around.
#226 – $1.4mil, Is that too much for all the charms of Staten Island?
That thing sold for 1.35 million in April of 2007. Taxes are 13K. The list price is stagnant for about a year now. It is at 950 Edgewater Avenue- less than a block from the intersection of Rt 1 & 9.
If you have that kind of money, why would you want to live across the street from a dilapidated apartment building and around the corner from a grungy strip mall?
Tosh – at least on Staten Island this thing would possibly have views of the mighty Verazzano bridge.
Bank Failure Thusday
2 banks in Illinois, First State Bank of Winchester and John Warner Bank, are 46 and 47 for the year.
Silera [226]
Would you like some house with your stairs?
… a true beauty.
I think my favorite part about this site is when people post ridiculous listings. Sure I check out lovelylisting.com once in a while but I like to keep my RE humor local.
Bank failures
Endless supply of money will take care of that – there really is no consequence to anyone anytime soon. It maybe indicative of something but is so far removed from our daily lives – it all doesn’t really matter anymore. Bankers have had to pay little price for their follies – their “expertise” for anything else than their personal gain is useless – sort of like a “financial planners”.
Six down, they earned a long weekend..
Millennium State Bank of Texas, Dallas, TX
The First National Bank of Danville, Danville, IL
The Elizabeth State Bank, Elizabeth, IL
Rock River Bank, Oregon, IL
The First State Bank of Winchester, Winchester, IL
The John Warner Bank, Clinton, IL
Six down! Wonder if this is a sign of the pace of failures quickening…or the warfare of big vs small banks intensifying.
Sas has got me thinking on the value to a predator bank of wiping out the small fry and grabbing their market share.
‘traffic is tracked’
Hurry up and get the best of both bubbles here. Should we start valuing these POS on eyeballs?
hughes 112
He’s shopping your offer. Make it expire tomorrow. Don’t forget even after it’s accepted there’s atty review so making the deadline tomorrow really means he has until middle of next week to walk.
Hey, in Dec 08 put a $400k cash offer for a home listed on the web for…$400k, 4k Sq ft, 6 bedrooms, pool, very nice place. Someone out bid me with a $410k financed offer. Turns out, the whole neighborhood was built with Chinese drywall. Now that same house is going for $200k, guess the winning bid was foreclosed upon already. So happy to have lost that bid. Needless to say, I’ll be renting for the next few years, as $200k for a toxic house is still a bit to much for my tastes. The coming society, GDII economic senario will require mobility.
228 skep
“pick NH over VT”
Nah. I like VT.
Lucky Seven BFF!
Deposits of Founders Bank, Worth, Illinois.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3bfe0a24-6737-11de-925f-00144feabdc0.html
“Schwarzeneggar Puts Case for IOUs” FT
“Schwarzeneggar has spoken with the heads of several banks. So far, Bank of America and Wells Fargo have confirmed they will accept the IOUs.”
#158 Nom – “(expect Cindy to flame me any moment now).”
No – All jokes about California are fair game at this point.
http://files.getdropbox.com/u/1462146/FDIC%20-%20Failed%20Banks%20-%2007092009%20-%20graphs.pdf
FDIC – graphs from a poster at Calculated Risk – Bank failures 08/09
Illinois?
No hedges for farmers? Here’s the John Deere keys. Try the FDIC Shuffle;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJNC3dgreaU&feature=related
vic (242)-
Why the concentration in Illinois this BFF?
(245)-
Izzat you, BC?
Hard to live in DC on most of these salaries:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/assets/documents/July1Report-Draft12.pdf
Hey Cindy, I have a question for you.
Now that California is paying its bills in IOUs, Do you think they would let me pay the Franchise Tax Board with one come my quarterly payment in September?
It is an odd name for an income tax agency, isn’t it?
I hope everyone has a good 4th. I am going to be tied up most of the day.
[247],
BC? I am not sure what the question pertains to?
You guys/gals are NY, no? Screw Wall St, a bunch of kiss a## pansies. Screamin Eagles when the market is cooperating. Otherwise, just a bunch of clams on the ocean floor.
Come and visit LaSalle and West Jackson. Real traders, real risk management, no backstop.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhXjt1MoXFs&feature=related
RMG (251)-
Sorry. Thought you were a regular here, posting under a fake handle.
You and he have eerily similar ideas & writing styles.
RMG (251)-
You ever meet Willard Sparks? That’s my idea of a real trader.
“Air France 447”
i told you blokes from day one that their is more to this story than meets the eyes, or at least what the controlled media is telling you.
something is rotten, and I don’t like it.
SAS
Me Like….
Erik Satie: Works for Piano, Vol. I: First & Last Works – Aldo Ciccolini [IMPORT]
“or the warfare of big vs small banks intensifying”
Bingo.
“Sas has got me thinking on the value to a predator bank of wiping out the small fry and grabbing their market share”
thats what its all about on Fridays.
SAS
This Sean Hannity & foxnews is really pithetic.
CNBC & foxnews, dumb and dumber.
SAS
“All jokes about California are fair game at this point”
let me brake it down for you: neighborhood leveraged buyout
follow the money, leads right to the usual suspects.
Cali will goto the wasteside so it van be bought up for pennies on the dollar (like they did to area in LA, now they are doing it to the whole state).
Thats too bad, had a nice romantic summer one time out in San Mateo.
SAS
(249) Shore Guy
“…Do you think they would let me pay the Franchise Tax Board with one come my quarterly payment in September?”
http://www.ftb.ca.gov/online/payment_choices.shtml
I checked out the payment options (I was really checking for any hint as to why they are called the “Franchise Tax Board.”)
It does not appear that they are accepting IOUs at this time….
“I’ve gotten hate mail from agents telling me that owners of their listings have come across negative comments here.”
I wonder just how far someone can go in giving a realtor a piece of their mind, without getting arrested or sued.
another words, can someone tell an agent that his/her listing is a pos that is way too overpriced?
not that i would do such a thing, just wondering.
[253],
An icon. Did you know him? That’s impressive if you did. Do you trade grains? I didn’t know him personally. I heard that he blew out Richard Dennis, Tudor and GS, yes GS. For some reason GS figured they could control the grain/meat pits. It was a battle of the heavyweights. In the recent past, have you heard of a GS grain call? Willard stuck them good. They took their beating and went back to NY, where they have better luck dealing with their DC office. By the way, Willard also stuck it up the Russian’s ass with the grain trade. Simply the best trade ever made on the CBOT, maybe on any US exchange ever.
God bless him.
RMG (261)-
Willard was one of my dad’s best friends. My clan all hails from Memphis.
I’m not a grain trader. Know more than a few, though…both dead and alive. Also know lots of cotton people, both the degenerate Dunavants and the brilliant Trachtenbergs.
I was barely old enough at the time to understand the move that Willard and Ned Cook pulled on the Russians. I do, however, know people peripheral to the transaction who were made for life.
You know any of the Ragens from Memphis?
262,
Ragen? No, I’m from Kane County, Ill. I only know of Willard from some of the stories on the CBOT. My family is in the grain elevator business. A good friend of mine runs a hedge fund in NY, he alerted me to this site. I’m shocked that your family knows Willard. I had no idea when I signed on.
RMG (263)-
You’ll meet a lot of very interesting folks here.
My story is simple: I’m just a RE burnout from the RTC days, expatriated to NJ and trying to cadge a buck.
RMG (263)-
I’m no CBOT trader, but I predict you’re gonna be knee-deep in in by Labor Day.
RMG-
Any better credit/liquidity getting through to the elevators?
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