From the Record:
Commercial properties take hit
Commercial foreclosures soared in New Jersey in the second quarter, with lenders and loan servicers going to court to take back 413 income-producing properties — nearly three times the number of such filings during the same period last year.
About half of the state’s commercial foreclosures in the second quarter came in June, according to records provided by the state judiciary. Of the 198 filed that month, 17 were in Bergen County and 14 in Passaic County.
The increase in commercial foreclosures is another sign of how the recession is rippling into commercial real estate, the sector that includes office buildings, shopping centers, industrial sites and apartments.
Much like the earlier crisis in residential real estate, commercial-mortgage borrowers — facing steep declines in revenue or rental income — stop making payments. In turn, lenders and loan services are asking courts to give them back the assets, such as the former headquarters of Linens ‘N Things Inc. in Clifton.
The now-defunct big-box retailer had its main offices in a complex on Brighton Road, which it rented from Daibes Enterprises. After the liquidated company stopped paying rent this year, Daibes Enterprises stopped making payments on the $15.2 million mortgage on the property in March, according to the foreclosure complaint filed April 22.
…
“We knew were taking a gamble of $3 million when we did the deal,” said Daibes. He said they would not contest the foreclosure.Daibes said the loan servicer was quite willing to work out the loan problems, but Daibes said brokers he enlisted had difficulties in attracting new tenants. In this economy, companies are hesitant to move, especially without enough state incentives, he said.
“Unfortunately today, New Jersey is not a state that businesses are looking to move into,” said Daibes.
From the NY Post:
Long-awaited evidence that the commercial real estate market is about to stumble may finally be emerging.
According to newly released data from Real Capital Analytics, some $108 billion worth of commercial real estate is either in default, foreclosure or bankruptcy as of July 1, a jump of $60.5 billion from the start of the year as office and residential rents sag, condo sales languish and retailers go bankrupt.
Meanwhile, 120 properties in Manhattan worth nearly $8 billion are considered “troubled,” Real Capital’s data show. They include 84 apartment buildings, 24 office buildings, eight development sites, two hotels, two retail properties and one industrial building.
…
“Excess leverage is endemic to every type of investor, all of which are facing difficulties refinancing mortgages as they come due,” the report said.
From Bloomberg:
Commercial Real Estate Is a ‘Time Bomb,’ Maloney Says
The $3.5 trillion commercial real estate market is a ticking “time bomb” that may lead to a second wave of losses at large U.S. banks, congressional Joint Economic Committee Chairwoman Carolyn Maloney said.
About $700 billion in commercial mortgages will need to be refinanced before the end of 2010 and “doing nothing is not an option,” Maloney, a New York Democrat, said at a committee hearing today. This “looming crisis” may lead to significant losses for banks, force shopping center and hotel owners into bankruptcy, and impede economic recovery, she said.
The response by banks to this “growing threat has been slow and inadequate,” said James Helsel, a partner at RSR Realtors in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and treasurer for the National Association of Realtors. “The lack of liquidity and banks’ reluctance to extend lending are also becoming apparent in the increasing level of delinquent properties.”
There were 5,315 commercial properties in default, foreclosure or bankruptcy at the end of June, more than twice the number at the end of last year, with hotels and retail among the most “problematic,’ Real Capital Analytics Inc. said in a report yesterday. Losses on commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, will total 9 percent to 12 percent of the market, or as much as $90 billion, said Richard Parkus, a research analyst for Deutsche Bank Securities in New York.
…
The bottom is several years away, and it will be at least 2012 before there is “palpable improvement” in the commercial real estate market, Parkus told lawmakers at the hearing. “It’s hard to imagine fundamentals improving in an environment where we are beginning to see massive increases in defaults.”The largest concentration of distressed properties is in New York City, Helsel said. Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Detroit, Phoenix, Chicago, Dallas and Boston also have high distress rates, he said.
From the Daily Record:
Gannett eliminates positions at NJ newspapers
Gannett Co. Inc. has eliminated 106 full-time and 19 part-time positions at its six newspapers in New Jersey due to the continued impact of the recession.
The company began notifying the affected employees late Wednesday night and the notifications continued throughout Thursday at the Asbury Park Press, the Courier-Post in Cherry Hill, the Home News Tribune in East Brunswick, the Courier News in Somerville, the Daily Record in Parsippany and the Daily Journal in Vineland.
“We had hoped to avoid additional reductions in our workforce,” said Thomas M. Donovan, president and publisher of the Asbury Park Press and vice president of Gannett’s East Newspaper Group. “But, unfortunately, this recession is deep and severe. Advertising revenues have not rebounded and, as we looked at economic forecasts for the second half of 2009, we had to make further reductions.’’
From MBP:
NYT Co. Lays off 100, Washington Post Offers 100 Voluntary Buyouts
The New York Times Co. is laying off 100 employees from its business side, and is ordering a 5% pay cut for all employees.
Management has the opportunity to trade the wage cuts for 10 additional days of vacation. Unionized employees are being asked to accept the proposal unilaterally, while the cuts are mandated for non-union employees, writes Variety.
“Ritz Camera Warns of Possible Liquidation”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/08/AR2009070803261.html?hpid=moreheadlines
Weren’t these guys in every NJ mall?
Morning all. Happy Friday.
Over/Under on bank failures today is 3. Place your bets.
Ref Swiss bank secrecy laws. Years ago there was a Swiss bank employee (can’t remember the name of the bank) who leaked that his and other banks were sitting in millions in unclaimed WW II accounts of holocast victims. Int’l pressure forced the banks to release the names so the families could claim the money. The employee was fired and received death threats causing him to move to the U.S.
#4 – They were. Liquidation sales might be good, but it’s been a long time since Ritz carried any interesting equipment.
From Bloomberg; NJ pension plans asset value drop %19 in the past year.
I’ve got to agree, is Ritz even relevant anymore?
Those places always seem to be collections of old photo frames, Cokin filters, and glass cases full of off-brand lenses and overpriced trade-ins.
The almost complete conversion to digital photography and short product cycles means that most consumers would be better served by their local electronics superstore. Or dare I say it, Big Box Mart.
#9 – I was just abut to post the same thing. Ritz ended up competing against the Best Buys of the world and had no chance of winning. Chased the lowest common denominator into the ground.
Uh oh…
http://www.baristanet.com/2009/07/burgdorffcoldwell_banker_blend.php
yup, its Friday.
watch the bank failure (aka. takedowns).
one thing I think gets a little overlooked on the boards when we talk about bank failure…. those banks have branches.
sometime one smaller bank can have 30 branches.
makes for predator banks to takeover, takeaway market share, and consolidate.
SAS
“Commercial Real Estate Is a ‘Time Bomb,’ Maloney Says”
you got that right.
more and more, I’m thinking I want to meet up with reinvestor101, rent some bulldozer, and go plum wild!
talk about eye sores.
SAS
BREAKING NEWS: GM emerges from bankruptcy, source tells AP
so John,
yesterday, went to Zum Stammtisch on Myrtle Ave out in Queens. I didn’t order the sauerbraten. Instead, got the rouladen. Its was very good.
check it out.
SAS
“Long-awaited evidence that the commercial real estate market is about to stumble may finally be emerging.”
Long-awaited evidence? Just walk a few blocks anyplace in Manhattan. There’s empty retail space on every block.
Unemployment Claims: How Bad are the “Real” Numbers?
“Adding 2.519 million from the above chart to 6.883 million from the second chart the current real total (assuming nothing else is missing) the current number receiving unemployment benefits is 9.4 million.
I am unsure how Federal Employees, Newly discharged Veterans, the Railroad Retirement Borad, and especially the 346,559 Extended Benefit numbers fit into the EUC 2008 program, but I suspect all those numbers need to be added in as well, making the true count still higher.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/unemployment-claims-how-bad-are-real.html
SAS I get that at my in laws all the time. Nothing like home cooked German food from and authentic German. Even for this Italian kid.
There is a housing-bubble simile in this story somewhere:
MADRID, Spain (CNN)
A man died after being gored in the neck during the annual running of the bulls in Pamplona, Spain, the Navarra regional government said Friday on its Web site.
snip
The Lederhosen in the West Village has some decent German food. I had a German grandmother, she was the only one who could cook. Never been much for sauerbraten. Love everything else.
Lederhosen is great. Nothing beats throwing back a few liters and wandering around the village in a stupor.
yo’me,
And all the old stock is still worthless.
I know some folks I tried to convince to sell their holdings, about 1,000 shares, a few years ago when they were priced at or near $60. My gut told me the ride was over and to grab the gains. Well, just like RE, and the mentality that “if it went up this high, just imagine how much higher it will go,” they refused to sell. As things started heading south, I again urged that they sell. 50, 40, 30, down it went and they were not willing to sell as “GM is rock solid and this stock is our security.” 25, 20, “we can’t sell until the price rebounds.”
Desire clearly outweighs concious thought, but then, looking at Gov. Sanford, Pres Clinton, heck, W and WMD in Iraq (or I-Rack, as the shrub said), we knew that.
It seems that, until bagholders get raked over the coals, they are not going to accept dispassionate (even passionate) analysis of the current economic situation, thus all the stopgap measures will, I suspect, fail.
The $787,000,000,000 so-called stimulus package was used solely to prop up local and state governments and to pay back politicians for putting 0bama in office. It did nothing. Nothing. In fact, some state governments actually expanded. So now they want to propose a second piggy bill.
Why not use that money to give any advantage possible to small and medium sized businesses so that they can expand and create jobs. More people working means more tax revenue, why is this so difficult to understand? I’m sitting at home collecting a government check that makes me cringe when I look at it when I could be working, paying taxes and using whatever extra I may have to create profit and a possible job for another company.
But I can’t and they won’t and now they want to take another $700,000,000,000 of your money to do… what? Hey, here’s an idea, why don’t we drop the FED rate down to around 0 to 0.25% as well! ;o
Tara. Tara. I must get back to Tara.
Hallo Berlin is pretty good too (mid-town west). Less atmosphere than Lederhosen.
“.
Why not use that money to give any advantage possible to small and medium sized businesses so that they can expand and create jobs.”
Gary,
But that would be unfair, helping people who have “made it.”
With respect to protecting people from ending up homeless due to the housing collapse, one might do better to give housing grants to people like Stu and Gator and Grim, and Mrs. Shore and me — people who have wisely managed our money — so we can buy distressed multifamily places . Why would one extend extra credit to people who showed themselves utterly incapable of managing money in the first place?
Oh, I forgot, because it is unfair to treat the imprudent differently from the prudent.
Zum Stammtisch and Lederhosen sounds good, beats Rolf’s with those tired christmas lights, however Nieldersteins has the majority of its old customers buried across the street which gives me a creepy/cool feeling. However, there is the 126 annual Volkfest this weeking at Platduetsche Park featuring Miss Plattduetsche and the great band Die Kreugtaler Baum out in Franklin Square this weekend. Huge Bier Garden.
Please check my mental (traffic light stop) math. If there are as many as 20,000,000 people who can document that they paid off their mortgage at least 5 years early (or make it 10 if you like) and the USG said “here effective manager of your money, take this 2 1/2 million and invest it in housing” it would cost less than the bailouts and would result in far more rental units coming to market at lower rents than can be found now. I for one trust the people who have managed their resources well to not blow the cash. I can’t say the same for the banks or the bagholders.
“Nieldersteins has the majority of its old customers buried across the street”
It beats the basement. Hey, how about some elderberry wine after dinner? Then a trip to the panama canal, perhaps?
All this talk of lederhosen, it reminds me of a woman who used to prowl the boards outside the Chatterbox….
Shore,
If they want me to stay home and keep giving me a check, then so be it! Personally, I’d rather be working and generating a service, product and revenue. I really don’t know what the game plan is coming from this administration. How do you get the economy moving again by proping up more government? I can’t even get my resume up on the NJ Unemployment site; I’m getting broken links and web pages not found.
Nieldersteins is gone. Think it might be a Walgreens or a burger joint by now.
Ref 31: Had that argument with a co-worker. Co said the stimulus would go to “shovel ready” projects (anyone still using that term these days?) I said it would go to plug holes in State and lcoal gov’t budgets to avoid making painful choices in the hopes things would get better next year. Guess who was right?
Gary,
The problem is on of world view. The people in charge very much believe that expanding government is good, that creating “good high-paying” government jobs is good, and that taxing, taxing, and then taxing again the small business owners who create most of the jobs is a productive way to provide for those “less fortunate.”
Nevermind the fact that many of the “less fortunate” are not so situated because of factors beyond their control. The folks in charge are so afraid of calling people on the need for personal accountability they feel the need to prove they are doing everything within their power to help that they think throwing good money afyer bad is a productive enterprise — well, as long as it is someone else’s money, anyway.
“French tourists seen as world’s worst.”
Germany demands a recount.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090709/lf_nm_life/us_france_tourists
Seriously, does anybody see any kind of recovery in the next year?
12 sas
only makes sense if you can buy it without the liabilities.
15 sas
“yesterday, went to Zum Stammtisch on Myrtle Ave out in Queens. I didn’t order the sauerbraten. Instead, got the rouladen. Its was very good.”
Watch out, sas, john don’t take no truck with no “kookie ethnic food”, although if you marry his daughter he’ll still be as nice to you as possible (although you can forget about Thanksgiving if you don’t live on the next block over).
#31 gary,
How’s this one for idiocy with unemployment. I am not allowed to attend grad school or go for job retraining until I meet with a counselor. to meet a counselor I have to go to some workshop, which are booked until end of August. I then have to track my job applications for 4 weeks before I can make an appointment to see a counselor about job retraining or grad school. If my plan is accepted, they will give me 4k and extend my benefits an additional 26 weeks.
If I jump the gun and enroll before I meet a counseler I may lose all my benefits. So the government would rather have me sit home and miss signing up up for anything until January, but will gladly extend my benefits another 6 months to make up for it.
WTF!
26 shore
“Oh, I forgot, because it is unfair to treat the imprudent differently from the prudent.”
No, no, NO, Shore. Of COURSE it’s ok to treat the imprudent differently from the prudent. Why else do you think we’re firing money at the imprudent with a money cannon while asking the prudent to get ready to re-load the money cannon?
DL and Shore,
Why are these concepts so difficult to understand? Every move government attempts to make is like struggling to get out of quick sand. In the last three months, the job prospects have gotten even worse. At least I got return emails and my resume was fowarded to different firms. Now, I can’t even get a return email after repeated attempts to solicit information, ideas or network. Every recruiter and headhunter I speak to has a hesitancy in their voice and the only thing they can say is “good luck”. If anyone thinks that the real unemployment rate isn’t around 15% is nuts.
36 dissident
“Seriously, does anybody see any kind of recovery in the next year?”
No. This has been another edition of Simple Answers To Simple Questions.
sheila blair is playing hard ball with CIT today, she is a PITA, GMAC which was a nightmare issued FDIC bonds and she holds up CIT. She should of gave CIT the month six months ago and let GMAC go under. It is a game of musical chairs, the junkest of companies got bailed out nine months ago and now sheila is looking for a sacrifical lamb to slaughter to show the door is closed. CIT has a few days to do some bondholder blackmail to get them to tender at half price and wipe out pref shareholder dividends in order to make sheila happy, I say it would be cheaper to get her a double donger as that lady ain’t getting it and when they ain’t getting it they need to punish someone.
1 trillion here, 700 billion there, pretty soon we will be talking about a lot of money getting lost in this real estate bust. /off sarcasm
PS. Didn’t someone post a while back that there would be no more writedowns?
#43 John,
She’s a bagholder and can’t sell her house in MA.
German food is not ethnic. I am talking korean dog meat or jain slop.
SirRentsalot says:
July 10, 2009 at 8:51 am
15 sas
“yesterday, went to Zum Stammtisch on Myrtle Ave out in Queens. I didn’t order the sauerbraten. Instead, got the rouladen. Its was very good.”
Watch out, sas, john don’t take no truck with no “kookie ethnic food”, although if you marry his daughter he’ll still be as nice to you as possible (although you can forget about Thanksgiving if you don’t live on the next block over).
Gary; probably the most pessimistic thing I’ve written in a while, but sadly, the answer to your question lies in what has ahppened to government. Taking Care of Your Friends is the sole defining principle of our political ethos. Careers in public service are no longer for the benefit of the public; we’ve Balkanized our population into aggrieved special interest groups to the point where there is no longer a common good; and our professional ruling classes have become kleptomaniacs of the national treasury for the purpose of buying loyalty and rewarding their friends. We are no doubt the richest nation on the planet but we have become third world in so many respects. Our infrastructure is crumbling and our cities are no longer livable. Where did all the money go? It was spent taking care of our friends. Any bets on when MJ coverage stops?
GM being released to commence burning through money once again…the same drunks at the wheel as the ones who caused the first fcuking wreck.
Unbelievable.
chevy is the best selling brand.
#48 – A room full of shredders would have been a more effective use of capital.
At least you would still have the shredders once all the cash has been destroyed.
Don’t know if something like this has been posted before, but I saw an interesting add in the newspaper this morning by a real estate agency offering FSBOs the opportunity to post their homes on the MLS and Realtor.com for $499.
“Seriously, does anybody see any kind of recovery in the next year?”
No but anyone who said they saw the recovery coming in 2002-03 is lying. When it does start to recover, it creeps up slowly and you never see it coming until you look back on it.
My buddy in IB has been getting lots of calls from the bulge brackets trying to recruit him, doubling his pay, just over the last two weeks. Thats a positive sign. green shoots if you will. Those big banks arent going to aggressively hire like that unless they see chance to make big money.
I know it doesnt make sense to think that a recovery has begun because all the economic fundamentals keep getting worse, but they are almost all lagging indicators and anything can happen from here, including stabilization and then recovery of some sort.
also, even though ny is just starting to get pounded, house prices nationally are beginning to stabilize and thats more green shoots for banks.
sorry for having a moderate outlook. i know thats a buzz kill for some of you sadistic bastards who would do anything to witness a total melt down.
By the way, im not making any predictions, just keeping an open mind about the possibilities. Anything is on the table as far as im concerned, even another govt-induced, decade-long boom (bubble) of some sort.
Clot (48)
Unbelievable.
Now you know what it feels like to live under a government in the third world where resources are wasted while the population is distracted by bread and circuses.
If I put my tin foil hat on, I think this 24/7 MJ coverage was instigated by the government.
#52 – Poaching rainmakers can be looked at as a survival strategy.
If you can’t grow your business through traditional means, why not look at alternatives? What is the cost to acquire new business? In this environment, is it simply cheaper to poach rainmakers from other firms?
Breaking News
•New GM Emerges From Remains of Bankrupt Automaker as Asset Sale Completed
•Yen, Dollar, Treasuries Advance, Stocks Fall on Concern Recovery Faltering
•El-Erian Says Geithner Shares `A’ With Bernanke for Effort, `B’ for Result
•Trade Gap in U.S. Unexpectedly Narrows to 10-Year Low as Exports Increase
•China Exports Sink for Eighth Month as Economic Growth Relies on Stimulus
•Goldman Sachs Reverts to Pre-Lehman Risk Mean With Accelerating Earnings
Stu (et al.);
Zum Stammtisch in Ridgewood is very good. Koenig’s in Floral Park and Plattdeutche Park in Franklin Squae are also worthwhile, the latter more for their summer biergarten festivals than their regular fare. In Manhattan for Bavarian food, I like Heidelberg, 2nd ave in the mid 80’s. There is a reason (historic, at least, if not current, a la “Little Italy”) that the Steuben Day Parade goes right through Yorktown.
Guten Appetit!
John (43)-
Your talents are wasted here. You should definitely be writing full time for The Economist.
“I say it would be cheaper to get her a double donger as that lady ain’t getting it and when they ain’t getting it they need to punish someone.”
“Poaching rainmakers”
grim,
that was my initial reaction.
but he is no rainmaker.
and has no relationships to bring.
he thinks they over-fired and are beefing up again across the industry.
look, its just one isolated situation.
i realize that.
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/07/dont-expect-a-quick-recovery.html
Robert Reich basically says forget the V or U – forget the word recovery. The economy cannot get back on the same track. We should be looking for a X.
“So instead of asking when the recovery will start, we should be asking when and how the new economy will begin….”
And who is Pol Clot? Anyone?
Screw Reich. Never trust a short person.
So who thinks California has approach their bottom in the housing market? Not I.
L.A. County’s May mortgage default rate double last year
The percentage of Los Angeles County mortgages delinquent by 90 days or more in May was nearly double the rate last year, First American CoreLogic reported today. May’s 9.5% delinquency rate for L.A. County was up from 5% of mortgages late by 90 days or more in May 2008. First American bases its foreclosure analyses on public records.
While the default rate has nearly doubled, the number of homes actually being sold at auction — the final foreclosure stage — has shrunk. In May, the L.A. County repossession rate was down to 1% of mortgages, from 1.1% a year ago. This discrepancy is the “foreclosure backlog” now looming over the housing market.
If Obama continues on his current trajectory he will set race relations back a century.
Roubini Says U.S. Recession Will Last Six More Months
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Roubini%20Says%20U.S.%20Recession%20Will%20Last%20Six%20More%20Months&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vbkEUR2nRKBs.asf
[i]Anything is on the table as far as im concerned, even another govt-induced, decade-long boom (bubble) of some sort.[/i]
– Oh, I wish there was scope for another bubble. The only thing worse than a bubble is no bubble. However, I feel that the chances of that happening are remote, simply because the Fed Funds rate is already almost 0%. No firepower left. Plus, the fiscal deficit is projected to be 12.5% of GDP. It was 2% in 2002. Finally, we are dependent on the kindness of strangers to finance our deficit.
Not the most potent combination for a government financed bubble.
#52 veto: Wall St hiring does nto encessarily mean anything for the broader economy as a whole.
In the early 90’s when we were in the middle of a nasty recession, were some of my best paid years on the street.Many others not in the
industry were faring poorly.
And believe me the street may be hiring in some areas (as they always do), but they are still laying off lots of people,and will continue to going forward.
I have no desire to see a complete meltdown (and did we not just almost avoid one a few months ago?), but I see nothing on the horizon that would lead me to believe that any kind of turn around is around the corner.
House prices stabalizing in parts of the country, sure good for banks, good for people who are buying now, but for all the people that way over paid, it means nothing.
Unemployment still rising and that whole lagging indicator thing is in my mind nonsense.
Who cares? if Unemployment is still rising that is all that matters. There will be many walking zombies out there for years to come, between unemplpyment, under employment and massive cosnumer debt that has to be worked off.
We are making the transition from a spend and consume society, to a save an invest society, and that will casue great pain.
Not a question of being a moderate on one hand, or doomer gloomer on the other just the reality.
Roubini & Schiller on video
Roubini Says U.S. Recession Will Last Six More Months
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Roubini%20Says%20U.S.%20Recession%20Will%20Last%20Six%20More%20Months&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vbkEUR2nRKBs.asf
#63 essex Why?
#54 grim: And certain areas are being beefed up, in preparation for things that are coming down the road.
Roubini Says U.S. Recession Will Last Six More Months
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/
62 – Kettle – Dr. Housing Bubble has always said the bottom will be 2011/2012
for here in CA – Alt-A and Option ARM reset heaven.
Now, we are #1 for mortgage fraud as well.
44 safe
“PS. Didn’t someone post a while back that there would be no more writedowns?”
That CAN’T be true! No one could be that stupid!
I think the ranks of journalists are made up of millenials and Gen Xers. Here is one example of laziness on their part that just rankles me:
“People from Mississippi are fat. With an adult obesity rate of 33%, Mississippi has gobbled its way to the “chubbiest state” crown for the fifth year in a row, according to a new joint report by Trust for America’s Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. Alabama, West Virginia and Tennessee aren’t far behind . . . . The region famous for its biscuits, barbecue and pecan pies has been struggling with its weight for years — but then again, so has the rest of the country. Wisconsin loves cheese, New Yorkers scarf pizza, and New Englanders have been known to enjoy a crab cake or two. . . .”
Crab cakes? New England is famous for Lobstah, not crab cakes (which are delicious, but more of a Maryland thing). Geez, do your fcuknig homework.
“We are making the transition from a spend and consume society, to a save an invest society”
no doubt this is happening. but is it short term reaction or is the entire borrow-to-spend-what-you-dont-have culture totally gone forever with the snap of finger? my reservations also lie in the idea that govt may decide to do anything within their power to make us spend again.
i dont disagree with any of the response posts. mostly because im not taking a hard position.
im certainly not going to sit here like frank and argue that things are good because my friend got a call from a headhunter.
but insisting that we have nowhere to go but down because unemployment has declined consistantly over the last 17 months is no better reasoning.
You see the shananigans. a recovery doesnt have to come about from strong fundamentals. a recovery can be manufactured by changing some laws, lowering standards, changing immigration policies, bombing a nation. the possibilities are endless.
look at the stock market being manipulated to shoot up 30% this year. try to explain that one with logical scenarios.
If that hokus-pokus can be done with the stock market for one year, it can be done with another market for ten years.
not saying it will or wont.
SRS finally getting up from the mat and landing some blows. Re-load time?
More journalist bashing from an ongoing dispute in Chicagoland; the academics are firing back with some venom:
First this:
“The Chicago Tribune . . .appears to have missed the actual story (they are journalists after all)”
and this
“some Tribune staffers seem to have deluded themselves into thinking that they are the next Woodward and Bernstein. . . . Some of those starry-eyes journalists appear to work at the Tribune. One sees such a self-image in the repeated patting on the back and self-congratulation appearing in many of the Tribune’s stories . . . ”
There’s a lot more, but I get the impression these profs don’t think very highly of their fellow classmates who took CommStu courses and got A’s for listening to their professors bloviate, and who now get paid to do pretty much what we are doing here.
36 HEHE
NO. completely unrealistic barring a mobilization for WWIII. It would take a decade to shift the US to a production economy. In the interim where does the average joe get the money to continue to be consumers? The US economy if 70% consumer spending income are shrinking and debt availability as well as the appetite for that debt has vanished.
The economy cannot recover without unemployment first peaking and leveling off. But what about a jobless recovery? HA, not going to happen. The jobless recovery of 01-03 happened due to the massive expansion of almost free consumer debt in nominal terms and the flow of that debt into the rapid expansion of the housing market. Without the ability to generate another massive debt bubble that gives the average joe access to huge amounts of nearly free money there can be no jobless recovery. Notice that i said free money in nominal terms. in real terms the money certainly wasn’t free, but certainly looked like it and felt like it in 03-05. Even if Obama and GS can spark off another bubble (i.e. Cap&Trade) it will not trickle down to the proletariat because the banks are not going to offer the average joe dirt cheap loans, as the banks only did so through rampant securitization. While various groups are trying to restart securitization that effort is goging to get its head cut off when CRE really starts tanking sometime in the next year or so.
As a very rough estimate, the unemployment cycle, that is the period of YOY changes in employment, whether Total Non Farm #’s or U3, is historically, approximately a parabola. This means that once the growth rate of unemployment peaks, we still have about the same amount of time it took to reach peak growth of unemployment before we are likely to see a reduction in unemployment (i.e a 0 or positive growth in employment). For example, if it takes 12 months for the YOY growth rate of unemployment to peak then we will see U3 continue to grow for another year, albeit at a continuously decreasing rate. This means that if the YOY growth rate of U3 were to peak today, then unemployment would continue to grow until the summer of 2010 and we would be likely to see a U3 high of about 12% and a U6 high of about 20%. Now consider the implications of this nonlinear behavior. if the growth rate of unemployment were to peak in Dec 09 then the growth phase would have lasted for about 18 months and so we could expect the decline phase to last for about the same period of time. that would suggest that unemployment continues to grow until the summer of 2011, with U3 peaking somewhere around 15% and U6 peaking somewhere around 25%.
It may not be immediately apparent but the unexpected time bomb here is that recessionary type changes in unemployment tend to behave geometrically as opposed to linearly unless you can intervene with something like a war economy, rapid expansion of cheap debt based on inflating assets (housing), or you flat out trigger very high inflation.
The unemployment effects are going to be magnified by the fact that the average # of hours worked is decreasing, so those with jobs will see their pay decreasing, while those who are unemployed are spending record periods of time unemployed and are falling out of unemployment benefit eligibility. At the same time the states are seeing their unemployment benefit payouts and other social safety net expenditures grow rapidly while tax receipts are decreasing rapidly.
People are making less, seeing higher unemployment for longer periods, while at the same time debt servicing costs are increasing and taxes are increasing. the only way out of this pit is by rebuilding production.
[64] vic
Money is now in government contracts. I have received more inquiries about government contracting law than I received or saw in the last several years.
No real stock plays here since any outfit that would see an appreciable rise from a contract is not publicly traded.
But Uncle Sucker is throwing money at everyone and anyone that can provide a service or product, and the best way is to bid as a minority or women-owned business. It is as close to a license to steal as one gets since you get paid merely for lending your status; in the end, you subcontract the work out to others and collect the margin. Or you ink the deal and enter into an agreement to sell the company to a larger player at some later point in the contract performance.
Ket the problem is produce what, anything we produce gets unionized out of being profitable. Manufacturing has shifted significantly overseas. Plus we lack the engineering and skilled labor base to produce anything effectively. To quote office space “this is a $hit!”
Not to mention the current sensse of entitlement by the massess and the programmed response from the mouth breathers that the government will fix it. The worse part of all of it we are still the best country on the this spinning rock to live in. What does that say about us as a species!
Pain 77
nothing a little depression wont fix. Its amazing how motivated people can get if you throw enough adversity at them. That or the curl up in the corner.
I dont wish misery on anyone, but you can only go on an economic bender for so long before the piper must be paid, and a 20yr bender has a serious price to be paid.
Pain,
from yesterday, It sounds like we may have closely related jobs in the same industry….
How I know the economy is in deep trouble:
Here Mrs. Shore and I sit, debt free, home and cars paid off, decent retirement savings, decent cash and equity position, careers humming along, healthy Little Shore, no health concerns, excellent income, living in one of the “best places to live in america,” yadda, yadda and we feel like it could all evaporate tomorrow.
If all were well with the economy, we would rightly feel pretty good about where we stand.
What is the old Russian saying: a pessimist is just an optimist who is well informed.
Got to love NJ. Always at the top!!!
10 Most Broke States
* California: $53.7 billion shortfall or 58 percent of its budget
* Arizona: $4 billion shortfall or 41 percent of its budget
* Nevada: $1.2 billion or 38 percent of its budget
* Illinois: $9.2 billion or 33 percent of its budget
* New York: $17.9 billion or 32 percent of its budget
* Alaska: $1.35 billion shortfall or 30 percent of its budget
* New Jersey: $8.8 billion or 30 percent of its budget
* Oregon: $4.2 billion or 29 percent of its budget
* Vermont: $278 million or 25 percent of its budget
* Washington: $3.6 billion or 23 percent of its budget
* Connecticut: $4.1 billion or 23 percent of its budget
66. I predict he will fail and fail big. The cards are stacked against him. He has a lot of really bad picks on his staff (Incidentally) — so you have a case where he will disappoint his party and prove the case for the opposition. Many people with a predisposition to dislike minorities will retrench their hatred. The decimation of the red state mfg base will continue unabated with the Chrysler give-a-way to the Italians as poster-child for said decline.
It is always easier to criticize than to offer solutions and that will continue. The blacks who supported him will skulk away with their collective tail between their legs.
And the divide will deepen.
You should be depressed, you live in New Jersey.
Shore Guy says:
July 10, 2009 at 10:32 am
How I know the economy is in deep trouble:
Here Mrs. Shore and I sit, debt free, home and cars paid off, decent retirement savings, decent cash and equity position, careers humming along, healthy Little Shore, no health concerns, excellent income, living in one of the “best places to live in america,” yadda, yadda and we feel like it could all evaporate tomorrow.
If all were well with the economy, we would rightly feel pretty good about where we stand.
What is the old Russian saying: a pessimist is just an optimist who is well informed.
Shore, Kettle, I know the economy is kaput based on people’s attitudes. The world seems to be falling apart and people are indifferent, they THINK THE GOV’T CAN FIX IT, and are participating in largely the same behavior as before. Until the problem is largely acknowledged we are in bad shape.
” you can only go on an economic bender for so long before the piper must be paid…”
Ket,
DON’T you get it? This is America! We have always been the best, so we will always be the best. It doesn’t matter what we do, everything will always break in our favor. Planning doesn’t matter. Behavior doesn’t matter. Debt doesn’t matter.
We are, therefore we succeed. Remember, we are different, thus we can ignore every rule of finance and all will be well. After all, we can just tax the “rich” and all will be okay.
80. Just imagine if you were an ‘average American’ without the assets and the sense of doom that probably drove you to be vigilant savers in the first place.
You will probably off yourself tomorrow.
Ket I wouldn’t doubt it about the similar positions. All Hype and I previously worked together. Pretty funny when the both us figured we were posting here. Plus being in Jersey with Telecom dead there aren’t many other venues for steady employment with an engineering or science background. Lets just say I point out institution/doctors faults based on governmental regulations for new entities in the pharma/device arena.
Essex or have your Iranian mistress do it
For the financial folks…
Was researching some shorts and ran across “SC 13G” form that list Wells Fargo as being the purchaser of huge quantities of the Ultrashort Russell2000 ETF.
Is this a normal occurrence?
Just wondering.
sl
88. Haha is that like death by cop? Only more fun…?
Essex,
With my family background, it is more likely that I would have gotten well armed and found a way to extract earnings from the well heeled.
Think of it as a form of, um, risk mitigation.
As an uncle described it, I am kinda in the insurance business. People who pay me find bad things do not happen to them.
Gee this hasnt backfired before….
Morgan Stanley Plans to Turn Downgraded Loan CDO Into AAA Bonds
Morgan Stanley plans to repackage a downgraded collateralized debt obligation backed by leveraged loans into new securities with AAA ratings in the first transaction of its kind, said two people familiar with the sale. Morgan Stanley is selling $87.1 million of securities that it expects to receive top AAA ratings and $42.9 million of notes graded Baa2, the second-lowest investment grade by Moody’s Investors Service, according to marketing documents obtained by Bloomberg News. The bonds were created from Greywolf CLO I Ltd., a CDO arranged in January 2007 by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and managed by Greywolf Capital Management LP, an investment firm based in Purchase, New York.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aeTzfvEedKpQ
Essex You would have to ask a recently deceased former quarterback if it was more fun.
“Manufacturing has shifted significantly overses”
Folks, try this at home and at work. Take a look at every item you use, pay close attention to the essential items, and note what perecentage of them is made in the USA. It is a sickening feeling when one realizes how little of the things one uses every day are made here.
Pain,
I am on the prep/cleanup crew that works before and after you.
Kettle,
Pb to Au. Pb to Au.
Do the folksat MS have to wear one of those pointy sorcer hats when they do this?
Sorry to hear that Ket, QA or operational clean up. I guess you truly are a lowly janitor ;)
“You would have to ask a recently deceased former quarterback”
You know how people always say they want to die in their sleep? Thar statement may need some additions after this incident.
pain,
both
I would love to die that way shot by one of my many jealous mistresses, of course at the age of 90.
Shore Guy says:
July 10, 2009 at 10:54 am
“You would have to ask a recently deceased former quarterback”
You know how people always say they want to die in their sleep? Thar statement may need some additions after this incident.
Uggh reason I went to straght auditing so I didn’t have to deal with people like me
John,
There is something to that. Beats fading away to alzheimer’s or to failing bit by bit over a year or two.
[85] shore
“After all, we can just tax the “rich” and all will be okay.”
Shore, whether you know it or not, you probably became “rich” on January 20, 2009.
Anyone with a paid-off home or other substantial non-retirement assets should consider offshore investment options, Bermuda special purpose trusts, and equity-stripping through the use of the portfolio interest exemption, in order to divest themselves of the kind of wealth that will attract tax-and-spenders like flies to crap.
Just because you don’t make or have enough to attract the torch-and-pitchfork crowd now doesn’t mean you won’t attract them later. During the Inquisition, when the priests successfully “converted” all the jews (through purification by fire), they turned their attention to the “conversios” (sp?), the jews that converted to Catholicism, and purified them as well.
Oh, and the church conveniently expropriated all of their assets.
Moral of the story: Definitions can change, and in an era where we see more official Newspeak than ever, definitions will change. Middle class today is rich tomorrow.
You will sleep better knowing that you have preserved your wealth for your issue, and not for the neo-bolsheviks that will doubtless appear when they run out of Warren Buffet’s money.
Recall Tytler’s disquisition on democracy: It is doomed to fail once the populace figures out it can vote itself largesse from the public fisc. Perhaps this is implied in Tytler’s observation, but I would clarify and extend the statement to note that democracy (or really any political-economic unit) is doomed to fail once the public fisc becomes depleted, and the populace turns on itself.
#72 veto:If that hokus-pokus can be done with the stock market for one year, it can be done with another market for ten years.
I think we are now seeing that hokus pokus in the end only works for a limited time.
[91] shore
“With my family background, it is more likely that I would have gotten well armed and found a way to extract earnings from the well heeled.”
So, you’re related to the Wild Colonial Boy of Clancy Bros. fame?
still_looking says:
July 10, 2009 at 10:40 am
For the financial folks…
Was researching some shorts and ran across “SC 13G” form that list Wells Fargo as being the purchaser of huge quantities of the Ultrashort Russell2000 ETF.
Is this a normal occurrence?
Just wondering.
sl
sl: I have no idea, but my best guess would be analogous to when I defend Goldman Sachs. I would assume that Wells is the beneficial owner of those shares on behalf of a client. It is also known as “street name”.
As an example, if you open up an account at Schwab and buy 100 shares of IBM, Schwab is going to be listed as the owner of the shares, not you.
It is this reason that I defend banks, because without seeing the full book of exposures, no one person can understand what is being done or why.
As for Wells, taking naked exposure on a Russell 2000 short is not what they do, unless it falls under a prop desk, and I don’t think they have one of that type of any real scale.
hokus pokus crosses a threshold in which the market is more powerful than the government. They found that out in the 1970s when the market was literally going to send them in to 20% inflation. While the balance sheets of American households are severely in debt and the US government makes its balance sheet even more atrocious, the hokuc pokus jig is up the second interest rates really start to rise. America’s on an adjustable rate mortgage and the interest payments on all of it’s accrued debt is going to be unbearable. The US government is operating on the assumption that their teaser rate of 2% on their 2 year T-bills will always be that low.
yikes says:
July 9, 2009 at 11:52 pm
chicagofinance says:
July 8, 2009 at 5:40 pm
To be clear:
Depeche Mode = cool
Erasure = gay
erasure may be gay, but this song rocks
yikes: In my opinion…THIS ROCKS….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JkfXjrKtbss
Nom,
Just listening to B.O.’s campaign we knew we would be wearing an economic bulls eye were he elected. When he won, I wished him well and hoped he would do right by the nation, but he is too steeped in lef-tist thought to do right. He will talk a good game but will harm our longterm prospects.
I guess you and I are the modern Kulaks for which the less well off peseants will come gunning once things get worse. After all, like after 1917, the true rich will head to Paris.
Nom,
The part of the family I referenced was from points further east and south. Think the northern participant in the Punic wars.
SPQR
“Alaska: $1.35 billion shortfall or 30 percent of its budget”
All that oil money and all those Federal dollar and massively in the hole. How does that happen?
Maybe another reason for Palin to head for the hills.
SHore, Nom when folks tell me it will never come to that I just reference NOLA vintage 2005. Only takes one singular event to throw of the trappings of civilized society. They will come based on the rhetoric of the chosen one, I just haven’t figured out what the event real or imaginary will be to trigger it.
[312] shore (yesterday)
“As a self-employed person, this deeply concerns me as it gets government substituting its judgement for business owners.
It is a short path from deciding that a business “really didn’t need” to buy a certain piece of equipment to “flying business class on that trip was unnecessary” or “you really did not need to entertain THAT client at that time or for THAT purpose.””
Yep, that pretty much sums it up. The proposed codification of the economic substance doctrine will further this since the government will be able to disallow any deduction that doesn’t have a “business purpose” and they get to say what a “business purpose” is. Essentially, they will examine any transaction and if the primary purpose of it appears to be tax-motivated, they will disallow it, and can recast any transaction as taxable (or more taxable), even if it costs you more than you ever would have made or saved in the first place.
Ever been audited? That is where they try to get you, and one trick is to get you to say inconsistent things. I got audited two years ago, and the auditor kept asking the same question over and over (telling me her computer was acting up and asking me to repeat my answer). I had highlited relevant text from the private letter ruling supporting my deduction, and had a copy in my lap. I just kept quoting the same highlited passage over and over until she gave up and issued me my full-compliance letter.
Gotta love the Russians for their view on who gets hammered by the powers that be, whether a government or a mob, as evidenced by:
It is the tall stalk that is first cut down by the scythe.
In 21st century, having a paid-off house and no debt makes one a tall stalk.
[115] pain
When that happens, the Gretna bridge won’t be closed, it will be dynamited.
(H/T to kettle for pointing out the Gretna bridge closing after Katrina)
Nom,
Newspeak of the day:
‘Global War on Terror’ has officially been replaced with ‘Overseas Contingency Operation’ in government communications
[117] shore
or this on the need to be quiet about wealth:
“The whale that surfaces is the one to get harpooned”
http://www.thedailybell.com/index.asp?fl=
Yesterday on their website, the People’s Bank of China announced a shocker. New Chinese bank lending for June was 1.53 trillion yuan ($224 billion), double the lending in May. The total already for the year is an astounding 7.4 trillion yuan when the target for the entire year was 5 trillion.
Putting this in context, total lending this year so far has amounted to 25% of 2008 GDP. As I wrote earlier this week, Chinese regulators are getting concerned that this lending is going towards poor credit and bleeding into commodity market speculation.
[119] kettle
My favorite newspeak item from years ago was replacing “deduction” with “tax expenditure.”
In truth, that is a clarification. Government actually does consider it THEIR money, and in the eyes of tax policy wonks on the JCX, a deduction doesn’t let you keep more of your money, it is the government giving you some of theirs.
SirRentsalot says:
July 10, 2009 at 2:37 am
all you lazy b@stards asleep?
KIDS TODAY!! LAZY; THE WHOLE LOT OF YOU!!!
Sir: I saw a bumper sticker than curdled my blood yesterday.
It said: PROUD PARENT…….PERIOD
I understand the sentiment and appreciate the point, but when put in the context of normally seeing “Proud Parent of ….honor student…”, it just says it all…
Nom
In truth, that is a clarification. Government actually does consider it THEIR money, and in the eyes of tax policy wonks on the JCX, a deduction doesn’t let you keep more of your money, it is the government giving you some of theirs.
that statement alone justifies a revolution.
[113] shore
“SPQR”
Paisan!!!
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
July 10, 2009 at 11:28 am
Ever been audited? That is where they try to get you, and one trick is to get you to say inconsistent things.
nom: Not to pick on you, but you represented yourself at your own audit?
Are you stupid? Even to give yourself the opportunity to blow it…why?
[123] chifi
I still want the one that says “My kid beat up your honor student”
My german shepherd is probaly smarter and more willing to work than their shiftless kid.
Ket agree We need some rich old men who don’t want to pay their taxes to renew the tree of liberty. Somebody has to finance it.
47 DL
That is a very true and sad post.
50 grim
“At least you would still have the shredders once all the cash has been destroyed.”
And a lot of usable insulation and bedding for the refridgerator boxes half the population will be living in.
“If I put my tin foil hat on, I think this 24/7 MJ coverage was instigated by the government.”
Maybe, maybe not. We do know that the government and not Jackson’s estate or family paid the $1.6 million for the funeral security.
For a laugh….
Roubini and Shiller were on Bloomberg Surveillance last night in the presentation hall so there was an audience….Roubini whips this out?
Green Shoots?
I think it is more like Yellow Weeds?
Maybe Brown Manure?
LAUGHS FROM AUDIENCE
Wait, manure is not bad…it can be fertilizer….
[126] chifi
If I couldn’t represent myself on what I considered to be a bunny of an issue, I’d be a poor tax attorney.
Basically, I deducted the cost of my LL.M. program and they challenged it. The PLRs on that are clear, however, and I knew what to say and not say.
Besides, it was an 18K deduction, much of which was phased out anyway, so the tax and penalty did not make it worth hiring a lawyer. It would have been worth it to litigate further as it would have been good practice (and hey, is that deductible too???)
I have represented myself on many occasions and only lost once, appealing a speeding ticket while a senior at UMass.
52 veto
“My buddy in IB has been getting lots of calls from the bulge brackets trying to recruit him, doubling his pay, just over the last two weeks. Thats a positive sign. green shoots if you will. Those big banks arent going to aggressively hire like that unless they see chance to make big money.”
Just to add my anecdata, the banks I’m working with are not adding bodies, and in transactional work the old time retention pool has dried up.
Shiller, Roubini Discuss `Anemic’ Economic Recovery
July 9 (Bloomberg) — Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, and Robert Shiller, chief economist and co-founder of Macromarkets LLC, talk with Bloomberg’s Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt about the U.S. economy, housing, Federal Reserve policy, currency markets and employment. Bloomberg’s Pimm Fox presents questions from the online and studio audience.
50 minutes long from last night
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/vbUFaK2nA8Y0.mp3
I think grim’s explanation at 54 is most likely. “Come on board, but DON’T FORGET YOUR BOOK!”
[124] kettle,
If you think you own those federal reserve notes in your pocket, think again.
Basically, the concept of property is not as clear as one may think. In fact, I can make the case that all tangible and intangible wealth is considered “property” of the sovereign, and the sovereign simply allows you to use it and dictates the terms.
Conseratives will give you more rights in the property, and liberals less (or none). But to say you own it absolutely, and free and clear of all claim or impediment is not correct.
Shore 26 – Perhaps Stu and I can use that grant to buy GSMLS 2683951. This is the “comp” that the town is using to fight our tax appeal. Sold for $550k in 12/07. Just reduced again yesterday to $249,900.
If Montclair can claim that this home is comparable to ours for this tax year, I wonder if I can then force them to admit is is comparable next year when we appeal for 2010 :)
[114] lisoosh
A fair observation. Clear she was running from something, and the conventional wisdom is that she stands to stop losing money and start making some by being out of that office, but that seemed to be not so well thought out.
Of course, Bill Weld did the same thing in Mass. after getting re-elected. He just quit and handed things off to Cellucci, who did the same after his re-election (though Cellucci took an ambassadorship while Weld simply quit).
Shore (80);
I think similarly about whether to stay in NY or take the salary haircut (and more than commensurate cost of living reduction) to move to one of those “Life 2.0” cities. Bonus points are that I would slip below the Leerer-in-Chief’s threshold of “rich” for punitive taxes, etc.
72 veto
“my reservations also lie in the idea that govt may decide to do anything within their power to make us spend again.”
Nah – that would only be true if people in power thought they could get people not in power to hand their money to people in power.
Oh … wait a minute … that makes sense…
[134] sir
Collorary to your observation is that we are seeing a lot of deal work and representation on matters that would have gone to peer firms in the City. This confirms a trend that GCs and banks are looking to top firms in less expensive markets, and mid-tier firms in major markets, to save on fees. We have a large group similar to yours, and they seem to be getting higher profile work.
I doubt we are eating BIGLAWs lunch, but we are picking at their appetizers.
Kettle [81],
That’s simple. Work backwards from 10-1, securitize IOU’s in tranches, seniors starting at 10. Get the rating agencies to hold out their hand as they slap AAA on it and sell to yield chasers across the ponds.
Disclaimer: GS will front run any order flow. [Not sure if the disclaimer is required]
Nom 137
I agree and one of my personal pet peeves is how insidious property tax is in the stealth removal of property rights
#144 kettle: Come on kettle, it pays for blue ribbony schools districts so that they can spend millions of dollars on additions and renovations and the like.
Do you really have a problem paying 10 to 12k in property taxes a year for a small cape?
Its for the kids you know.
Friday laugh of the day
I know it is Drudge but I can’t wait to here the republican spin machine go into action on this one
http://www.drudgereport.com/
[23] Gary,
Do you actually think the entire $787B has been spent already with no effect or are you just ranting again? Only 13% of it has been spent so far. It was designed to be rolled out over a couple of years. I don’t think it will work either, but at least give it some proper time before declaring it a failure.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/bal-bz.hancock10jul10,0,6622609.column?track=rss
Shore Guy says:
July 9, 2009 at 10:24 pm
I have been a longtime fan of Tim McLoon’s place in Sea Bright. Have you eaten at his place in the old HJ?
Shore / Coast: Sorry to be a stick in the mud, but Tim McLoon’s restaurants are horrible overpriced.
My colleague and I used to make it a point to hit the Rum Runner in Sea Bright 3-4 times in the summer for lunch. However, the last time I went last year, I am being waited on by a 17-year old girl, being served drinks in plastic cups on the deck, the food is a half-step above a sandwich from Subway and we each had one drink. It was close to $65. Serious balls.
3b,
i would rather see it spent on hookers and blow. at least then i know that i am helping to stimulate the economy while also screwing uncle sam out of a bite of his taxes.
“Victorian says:
July 10, 2009 at 10:14 am
SRS finally getting up from the mat and landing some blows. Re-load time?”
In order to reload I’d have had to unload:) Patience is a stress filled virtue.
Also the Pier Village McLoon’s….I am at a professional function with a cash bar. I have $10 in my hand and order a Dewars neat….not enough money! French Connection UK’ing ripoff…..
Across the boardwalk at Avenue, I can get Laphroaig for $10, and they serve real food.
3b forgot to add; i would also be helping a young lady further her educational career (she’s just doing it to pay for school, right?)
chi, 109
Understood everything til this: “unless it falls under a prop desk”
Thanks for clearing that up…. at 0200, I kept wondering if I was seeing the same SC 13G form over and over again… the share numbers were different and the purchases dated back to May or earlier. Blocks of stock just under 50,000 shares at a time.
sl
“Breaking News”
“New GM Emerges From Remains of Bankrupt Automaker as Asset Sale Completed”
[55],
Fantastic. Taxpayers now own 60% with the Canadian govt and UAW owning the majority of the remainder. Senior bond holders? Sorry, change has come to DC, back of the line.
91. I hear you. In this (and every) environment, you must remain flexible…and if that doesn’t work, an approach closer to Nihilism works just fine.
John says:
However, there is the 126 annual Volkfest this weeking at Platduetsche Park featuring Miss Plattduetsche and the great band Die Kreugtaler Baum out in Franklin Square this weekend. Huge Bier Garden.
My parents being German, always to go this small Oktoberfest place in Dover, NJ. They had one on July 4th and my in-laws were in town so I decided to bring the whole gang.
The wife and I were waiting in line for potato pancakes and the guy working the grill says to me, “We don’t serve anyone here under 60”.
I said to him, “Is there anyone here under 60?” He laughed and said you’re probably right.
If you like the German stuff, you’re going to have to fly over the Atlantic to get it in 10 years. Looking around at that place, not too many people were under 70. I don’t think there will be anyone left to continue. Ethnic German is going the way of American Indian in this place
I did see some people who looked like they were the Boys from Brazil or were ‘guests’ at the Nuremburg trials though.
regarding our debate yesterday about “R hour childan lerning”
http://pewresearch.org/sciencequiz/
DL [47],
Great post and so true!
I am going over there next year for business and plan on eating like a pig, I love german food in the wurst way.
Haven’t see this posted before…pretty good guide to different remodeling projects and resale value includes regionality.
http://www.remodeling.hw.net/2008/costvsvalue/division/middle-atlantic.aspx
X – http://www.germandeli.com This is where we get all of our provisions when no one is going to be in Germany for at least 6 months.
We’ll be there in August for a wedding so I’ll probably have a laundry list to smuggle in. funny thing about current Deustchland more Turks than Germans.
#148 kettle:at least then i know that i am helping to stimulate the economy
And having fun too!!
By the way I spoke to another 2 “well informed, savvy sophisicated, educated people in my town in the PRNJ, and they had no idea that there is now a cap on property tax deductions on the state (soviet) income tax.
I still have a Karl Ehmer German Delli near me. Also believe it or not Trader Joe’s is German. That is why they have advent calenders. Sometimes you find mixed in some good german stuff.
Kettle, Comrade, Shore,
You guys are on a roll today. When the government is taxing your assets, income, and purchases as much as it is today, the meaning of private property diminishes. You start slipping from owning your life and your property, by inalienable right, to renting your life and property from the government.
Even worse is the regulatory churning and uncertainty now going on. I don’t know what my tax rates will be next year (but they will be higher). I don’t know if the government will take away certain deductions next year. I don’t know how much my utilities and fuel bill will rise due to the climate change perceptions bubble regulation reactions. I don’t know how fast the government will be devaluing my currency, etc.
The only good news I see is very long-term. Sales of Ayn Rand’s great novel defending individual liberty, “Atlas Shrugged” is setting new sales records, 52 years after initial publication. But the USA is likely to be a drunk in the gutter for a while before it’s likely to pick itself up and choose a better philosophical path.
3b,
maybe we should lobby for a hooker and blow tax deduction
“We do know that the government and not Jackson’s estate or family paid the $1.6 million for the funeral security.”
That’s because it was a shovel ready project.
Grain:
Very clever!
Yea sounds bad that 1.6 million, but MJ had a 500 million estate after bills are paid off and that is like almost 200 million in estate taxes coming to uncle sam.
wow, BCs back?
where’ve you been for a month?
[146] pain
yeah, good one. Loved Sarkozy’s look as well.
Friday laugh of the Day #2
or not. I saw a reference to this on USNWR and wondered, hey, wonder if anyone actually reproduced it, and through the wonders of Google, here it is
http://onemansthoughts.wordpress.com/2009/04/15/firearms-salesman-of-the-year/
More green shoots:
U.S. Engineers At Record Unemployment
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=481800
Could we call it the Andy Kauffman memorial deduction?
Nice Nom very nice. Spoke to my brother in law yesterday .223 is about as scarce in North Carolina right now as conservatives at a feminist convention.
kettle1 [148],
You were able to get the words, “hookers, blow, stimulate and screwing” into one sentence. That’s pretty impressive! :)
[172] pain
It has also nearly doubled in price at my usual supplier, when they have it at all. I bought some pre-inauguration, but I still have less than 100 rounds of .223.
John says:
I love german food in the wurst way.
It’s one of those things where you don’t go out of your way to get it on a regular basis, but every once in a while, its good…especially with a couple of german brews and the whole oktoberfest thing
veto [168],
Tarped.
[176] BC Bob says:
“Tarped.”
Pain medication, Preparation H, and Kegel exercises will help.
[165] grain
ROFLMAO
Painhrtz says:
July 10, 2009 at 12:55 pm
X – http://www.germandeli.com This is where we get all of our provisions when no one is going to be in Germany for at least 6 months.
My mom goes to this place in Rockaway, NJ called Schwind’s pork store. You can get a lot of it there. Been eatin’ wurst from there since I was a kid
Nom,
your usual supplier has a good deal @ $300 for 1000 rounds of .556 at the moment. its wolf, but thats better then most deals i have seen lately.
caught lookin’ at tail
http://www.nypost.com/photos/galleries/news/worldnews/pp_20090709_day_in_photos/photo25.htm
re#111 – ChicagoFinace – go kiss some boys already.
In the event of a heart attack or heart failure, the best course of action is to head directly to a hospital. And if that hospital is in New Jersey, so much the better.
A new study shows that hospitals in some states regularly outperform others for treating heart attack and heart failure. The Garden State was among the states with the least deaths and fewest hospital readmissions following a heart attack or heart failure, according to a new study published in the journal Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes.
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/MensHealthNews/story?id=8044313&page=1&cid=yahoo_pitchlist
Ket that actually isn’t a bad price, Wolf or not, you can always use the casings for reloads.
PAIN,
you have mail
[180] ket
If by 556, you mean .556/2, then yes, that is good and I can use it. I thought I saw last that the .556/2 had gone up from about $180 to around $250, and that had me spooked.
This will blow over, of course, and supply/price will return to normal, but it is slightly frightening that it hasn’t already. I am astounded that there is still insane demand for ammo this long after the election, and it shows a deep level of distrust in this administration.
http://www.heidelbergrestaurant.com/
Nom,
We may well have been seperated at birth.
“last time I went last year, I am being waited on by a 17-year old girl, being served drinks in plastic cups on the deck, the food is a half-step above a sandwich from Subway and we each had one drink. It was close to $65. Serious balls.”
Egads. I have not had that experience.
Nom [177],
Prep H, 80 years ago;
Brokers Believe Worst Is Over and Recommend Buying of Real Bargains
Wall Street in looking over the wreckage of the week, has come generally to the opinion that high grade investment issues can be bought now, without fear of a drastic decline. There is some difference of opinionas to whether not the correction must go further, but everyone realizesthat the worst is over, and that there are bargains for those who are willing to buy conservatively and live through the immediate irregularity.
-New York Herald Tribune, October 27, 1929
Stocks Soar As Bank Aid Ends Fear of Money Panic By W. A. Lyon
The stock market strode out from under the shadow of a panic in callmoney that so lately threatened, revived in all its old strength yesterday. Assured that the New York banks were ready with their boundless resources to prevent a money crisis, the public and the professional trader set out to repair the damage done to prices on Monday and the major part of Tuesday. Stocks in the aggregate, though bucking a 15 per cent rate for loans,enjoyed the greatest advance they have known in a single day in the last two years. Not even the surging bull markets of the memorable year 1928 saw such a day of heavy buying.
– New York Herald Tribune, March 28, 1929
Nom,
More pain medication;
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html
Just curious, why do smokers bother with bottled water? Really do they think their biggest worry is tap water.
#122
My favorite newspeak item from years ago was replacing “deduction” with “tax expenditure.”
********
when I took tax, that is how this was presented. It blew my mind for the same reason you stated (assumption that it is the gov’t’s money), but seems to be taken as a given within the legal academy.
skep-tic says:
July 10, 2009 at 1:43 pm
http://www.heidelbergrestaurant.com/
The Mädchen they have depicted in the photo don’t represent my experience with german women
Many thanks for all the tips on where to find German eateries, fests, and culture. When we move back next year we’ll probably lower the average age of the G-A clubs by a third.
German population – 80 mil; Turks in Deutschland – 2 mil. Berlin second largest Turkish city in the world.
Saw a report some years ago on direct and indirect tax burden on average German wage earner; it tried to put into context the “free” health care, “free” university education, etc. When Germany went to the D-Mark in the 50s the average German paid 10% of his gross in taxes; in the mid-90s direct and indirect (indirect for example: 70% of the price of a liter of gas is federal tax) it was 66%! Today VAT in Germany is 19%. Hope you like your future.
still_looking says:
July 10, 2009 at 12:40 pm
chi, 109 Understood everything til this: “unless it falls under a prop desk”
still: sorry
Proprietary trading desk, where the bank takes its own investment capital and attempts to make strategic investments and take risks. As an example, the Sergey guy that was arrested for stealing Goldman trading code was likely working in conjunction with their prop trading desk, although GS may also be trading themselves along side their own client’s money.
lots of interesting articles in WSJ today…
WSJ
PAGE ONE
JULY 10, 2009
A Mooning Festival Is Something The Mayor Just Can’t Get Behind
As Town Turns Its Back on 30-Year-Old Event, Will Train Flashing Go Into Eclipse?
By SARAH MCBRIDE
The biggest event of the year in Laguna Niguel, Calif., is coming up on Saturday, but Mayor Robert Ming has a message for those planning to attend: Keep your pants on.
For 30 years, the town has played host to an affair dubbed “Moon Over Amtrak.” Crowds line Camino Capistrano, a road that runs along the railroad tracks, and pass the day dropping their trousers every time a train rolls by. Some regulars compare it to Mardi Gras, others to Woodstock. Moon Amtrak once was so small the bar whose patrons thought it up gave free beer to everyone who took part. Last year, between 8,000 and 10,000 people showed up.
Thousands come each year to Laguna Niguel, Calif., to moon Amtrak trains.
Thousands come each year to Laguna Niguel, Calif., to moonAmtrak trains.
Thousands come each year to Laguna Niguel, Calif., to moonAmtrak trains.
This year, the city, on the busy Orange County corridor between Los Angeles and San Diego, is planning a crackdown.
“Avoid the area this year,” the city advises on its home page. In a cheeky Twitter feed, it added, the city is “saying ‘NO’ to crack.”
Some Laguna Niguel habitués, particularly the loyal clientele of the Mugs Away Saloon — directly across Camino Capistrano from the railroad tracks — aren’t exactly over the moon about the authorities’ new attitude. In 1979, according to city lore, a saloon patron offered to buy a drink for anyone who would moon the next train. He did — for one guy — and the annual rite was born.
Last year’s event, bolstered by word of mouth and mentions by radio disc jockeys, was much bigger than the one the year before. So much traffic poured onto Camino Capistrano, which dead-ends in that area, that cars were trapped. A handful of 911 calls came in, the city says, mostly from people who were panicky about the heavy crowds and drunkenness. Local businesses complained their customers couldn’t come and go. Backup cops and a helicopter were called in from surrounding communities.
Given that there were few incidents last year, city officials “totally overreacted,” says Mugs Away regular Rick Sanchez, who says he has been coming to Moon Amtrak for 15 years. Patron Glenn Manthe blames a “stuffy, yuppie mayor” who has “never even been to a mooning.” The 39-year-old mayor, who took office in December, confirms that he’s never attended and says he has no desire to do so.
[Rick Sanchez]
Rick Sanchez
Server Rebecca Shahan, who was behind the bar last year, says, “It’s not fun when you see a bunch of cops show up in riot gear when it’s just a bunch of people having a good time.”
But the city says the event set the stage for grave harm, exacerbated by the difficulty emergency vehicles would have had getting through the crowds. This year, “we had to take action,” says Mayor Ming. While the city has an ordinance banning public nudity, it decided to go a different route. In March, the City Council adopted a resolution banning on-street parking in the area Thursday through Sunday this week. It also passed ordinances that prohibit alcohol consumption and urinating in public. In a news release, it announced its deputies “will be out in force, enforcing all laws and ordinances.” Last year, the city estimates it spent $20,000, mostly on law enforcement. Volunteers handle cleanup.
Now, what used to be the biggest day of the year for the Mugs Away pub, might be more of a hassle than a cause for celebrating. While in the past as many as 200 people crowded into Mugs Away, according to estimates by people who were there, city officials have informed the bar’s staff they plan to enforce its occupancy limit — 49 people. The owner of Mugs Away, Rob “Hutch” Hutchinson, didn’t return a call for comment on Moon Amtrak.
At Haines & Cross carpet cleaning, a few doors down from the bar, office manager Michelle, who declined to give her last name, says it is high time the city takes action. Every year, the business must close its doors during Moon Amtrak, she says. The company also must drive its vans off the premises, or lose access to them all weekend. Last year, the density of parked motorcycles jamming the area made it impossible to move carpets in and out of the building, she says, although nobody actually tried to do that.
But others don’t mind the visitors. Some report seeing other business owners setting up stands to hawk T-shirts or drinks to revelers. “It’s one day a year,” says Greg Adams, owner of Adams Woodworking. “I don’t care one way or the other,” says Kevin Brady, of Brady’s Auto Repair, who nevertheless cordons off his premises with tape.
It’s unclear how effective the city’s tactics will be. Moonamtrak.org, the closest thing to an organizing body the event can claim, is still providing directions and tips for attending, although it notes the rule changes, highlights the lack of liability insurance surrounding the high jinks and alerts readers that “the city and the railroad would rather you didn’t bother coming to this event.”
With all the new restrictions, Moon Amtrak “is done,” as in finished, says Mr. Manthe, as other patrons nod in agreement. “Nobody will be talking about it anymore.” But others aren’t so sure. Mr. Adams predicts crowds will be only slightly smaller than last year’s. If they must, determined mooners will “hoof their way in,” he says.
By Wednesday, the city had begun putting up traffic markers and notices on Camino Capistrano. In years past, attendees say, recreational vehicles started rolling onto the thoroughfare as many as three days before the event, to get prime viewing spots.
Tony Terzo, who came for the first time last year, feels the spots people jockey for aren’t all they might be, given that naked rear ends are aimed at the railway tracks rather than at the street. “From this angle, you don’t get a good view,” he says, except of the occasional train passenger returning the bare-bottomed favor to the crowds on Camino Capistrano.
“This year, my first moon is going to be that way,” says Mr. Sanchez, pointing his finger in the direction of City Hall.
x; Funny thing about German restaurants in the States; they all dress Bavarian. If you wore lederhosen and a dirndl in Heidelberg (where I live) you’d stick out like a burka on a nudist beach.
WSJ
OPINION: DE GUSTIBUS
JULY 10, 2009
Hide the Jewels: Don’t Tempt the Tax Man
By ERIC FELTEN
Last month Details magazine described the well-to-do urban crowd who spend a fortune on obscure organic delicacies while wearing “artfully rumpled, stick-it-to-the-Man clothes.” They are the “poorgeoisie,” rich hipsters whose scruffy style provides “cultural camouflage” that hides their wealth, giving them a way of “blending in perfectly with a landscape full of genuine privation.”
Well, maybe. But there are two problems with the “poorgeois” strategy for camouflaging one’s cash. First, it won’t work: Unless you’re demonstrably destitute, dressing as if you don’t have a job suggests that you have the luxury of living comfortably without one. As New York magazine put it three years ago, the grungy yupster look represents a “convergence of downtown cool and easy, abundant money.” The second reason not to join the poorgeoisie? You have to dress like a bum.
As the recession grinds on, even those looking to step into the society spotlight are striking poses of modesty and restraint. Billionaire Philip A. Falcone and his wife, Lisa Maria, may have plunked down $49 million for a mansion on the Upper East Side last year, but Mrs. Falcone insisted to the New York Times recently that she prefers to live in the house’s basement apartment and shop in thrift stores: “I’m still comfortable with the basic things.”
The gaudy explosion of luxury living in the past couple of decades owed much to the sheer proliferation of wealth. But don’t underestimate the effect of a political environment in which the rich were relatively free to enjoy their money without fear their frolics would invite envious, punitive taxation. No more. When Washington’s new ruling elite say that they expect the rich to bear the burden of the government’s fiscal bacchanal, it doesn’t pay to look rich. Flaunt your cash and you taunt the tax man.
It’s an old lesson. In an 1834 Caribbean travelogue called “The West India Sketch Book,” the delightfully named Trelawney Wentworth described the danger of displaying one’s riches. He recounts a tale of King George III riding along with his Prime Minister William Pitt (the younger), on a seaside visit to Weymouth: “Some opulent Jamaica proprietor appeared there with the most splendid equipage, with out-riders, and livery that bespoke the rank of royalty.” The king was agog at the sight of an island planter who appeared to be richer than himself. “Sugar, sugar, eh? — all that sugar!” It took but a moment for the king’s thoughts to turn to the massive national debt and all that the planter could do to alleviate it: “How are the duties, eh, Pitt, how are the duties?”
The new rich — until recently — haven’t felt too concerned about the old patrician virtues of restraint and modesty. “Getting into the Social Register is passé,” the Journal’s Robert Frank wrote in his pre-recession book “Richistan” (2007), and passé in no small part because the old blue-blood guide is quiet and discreet. Instead, the new multimillionaires and billionaires spent the better part of the decade flaunting their luxe lifestyles in “vanity magazines like Hamptons, Aspen Peak and Gulfshore Life.”
But now Washington is watching, forcing the rich to rediscover some of the old ways. “Perhaps the most charming of Old Money’s social virtues is modesty,” Nelson W. Aldrich wrote in the book “Old Money” (1988). And the reason for the low-key style and self-deprecating demeanor of the old aristos? “It charms away the uglier forms of envy.” When the leveling winds are blowing, it doesn’t pay to jump into the old Croesian pile the way a kid might attack a mound of freshly raked leaves.
Patrician modesty may be a sage survival strategy for the fortunate few with fortunes — has anyone ever done more than Paris Hilton to promote the estate tax? — but it isn’t an unalloyed social good. “New Money is always more capable of largesse than Old Money,” Mr. Aldrich notes. The newly rich may have their faults, but a lack of generosity is generally not among them.
By contrast, Mr. Aldrich writes, “year after year, fund-raisers make the same vain effort to get money out of some Old Family, only to be told that the family’s philanthropic or charitable or cultural or educational ‘dollar’ has already been spoken for.” Let’s hope that Mrs. Falcone’s effort to play down her riches doesn’t dampen her admirable enthusiasm for writing $10 million checks for charity.
And there may even be some social good in the forthright celebration of wealth as opposed to keeping one’s prosperity hidden behind the privet hedge of good manners. No doubt, indulging in a lavish lifestyle in the midst of misery is bad form, rather like the revels in Poe’s “The Mask of the Red Death.” Poe’s partygoers try to enjoy their masquerade out of sight, discreetly behind castle walls, but it doesn’t make us think any better of them.
Is the new-found modesty in vain? What good does it do the economy to inhibit the honest, if flashy, enjoyment of money? I wonder if prosperity will be harder to find when it’s furtive. Perhaps better is the example set by novelist John O’Hara who, in the fullness of the wealth he had created for himself, pondered whether to buy a demure Bentley or an ostentatious Rolls-Royce. He went for the Rolls: “None of your shy, thumb-sucking Bentley radiators for me,” he yawped. “I got that broad in her nightgown on my radiator.”
Interesting article in the journal today on how the benefits of diversification/MPT have been overstated (what many here have been saying for a long time).
I have basically gotten to the point where I do not think the 401k is worth it anymore. I am skeptical that stocks are valued on anything close to fundamentals, and not just over the short term (look at where we are vs 10 yrs ago). Diversification apparently has little benefit when you need it most. Plus, there is a lack of liquidity inherent in the 401k program.
In addition, all of the tax issues that A.West raises above are very relevant. Why lock your money into some IRS created vehicle that could be taken away at any time?
I am actually beginning to think a better long term wealth strategy is to invest in hard assets.
DL says:
July 10, 2009 at 2:07 pm
Many thanks for all the tips on where to find German eateries, fests, and culture.
check out Germania Park in Dover. They have a website. It was the first time I was there in 20 years. Beer was $4.50 but the food was actually quite good and reasonably priced. I think the next one is in September. It’s funny because the town it’s in is like 90% hispanic
http://video.nytimes.com/video/2009/07/10/business/1194841457317/oversight-panel-chief-on-stock-warrants.html
Elizabeth – We gave up 1/3 of the value going in but we had to look back in hindsight.
We should be able to do better than 66 cents on the dollar on the stock warrants.
Barney Frank is out there today wanting to put TARP money back to work instead of returning it to the taxpayers.
201. Hard assets? Like my johnson?
ironically (in true hipster fashion) that falcone guy made his mint shorting subprime
“I am actually beginning to think a better long term wealth strategy is to invest in hard assets.”
skep,
When I find a garage like this, I’m in;
http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/clip-image00116.jpg
DL (199)
Yeah, there’s north and south, just like in this country. The Bavarians (southern) are the partiers and northerners are very stoic and serious. Big difference.
I’d prefer to hang with the guys in lederhosen…way more fun!!!!
#201 skep
“I am actually beginning to think a better long term wealth strategy is to invest in hard assets.”
real estate?
hard assets like RE. Just not yet.
Nom, Cindy
funny how when this nation started, the government belonged to the people, whil enow the people seemt o belong to the government.
Barney Frank is out there today wanting to put TARP money back to work instead of returning it to the taxpayers. I forgot, the government knows how to use my money more effectively them i do
How to create EVEN BIGGER financial risk …………DC idiots…
To my points earlier about Goldman, Wells etc. and need to see their book to know their expeosures.
WSJ
JULY 10, 2009
Big Companies Go to Washington to Fight Regulations on Fancy Derivatives
By KARA SCANNELL
WASHINGTON — Any doubt about how broadly U.S. corporations rely on fancy financial instruments vanishes with a look at who’s lobbying Congress to forestall tougher regulation.
Companies from Caterpillar Inc. and Boeing Co. to 3M Co. are pushing back on proposals to regulate the over-the-counter derivatives market, where companies can make private deals to hedge against sudden moves in commodity prices or interest rates.
Many in Congress blame such instruments for exacerbating the financial crisis last fall. To fix the problem, a White House plan unveiled last month calls for more of the trades to take place on exchanges where regulators can monitor them, and requires dealers — and ultimately companies — to put more money aside to secure against big losses if trades turn bad.
This naturally has Wall Street in a stir, but it has also sent dozens of big manufacturers and other major corporations scurrying to Washington.
Caterpillar, which uses derivatives to offset increases in the price of copper, says new regulations may drive U.S. companies to seek financing overseas.
MillerCoors LLC, Bayer AG’s U.S. unit., and Delta Air Lines are among those lobbying on derivatives, which they use to manage fluctuations in materials prices, commodities, fuel, interest rates and foreign-currency swings.
At least 42 nonfinancial companies and trade associations are lobbying Congress on derivatives, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of lobbying disclosure forms filed through April.
That’s more than triple the 14 nonfinancial companies that lobbied on derivatives in all of 2008 and zero in 2005. The figures include only companies that specifically name derivatives as a lobbying issue.
“Not all derivatives have put the financial system at risk and they should not all be treated the same,” Janet Yeomans, treasurer of 3M, wrote in a letter to Sen. Mike Crapo (R., Idaho).
The companies argue the White House plan will make it more expensive to manage risks and force them to put aside cash as collateral that could otherwise be used more productively.
Treasury officials say their aim is to prevent another financial meltdown caused by hidden exposure to derivatives risk.
The issue will be fleshed out Friday as lawmakers question Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in a joint hearing hosted by the House Financial Services and House Agriculture committees as they grapple with crafting legislation. Some lawmakers say they hear the concerns and fear the new rules will hurt American companies, but there are others who want to push for more regulation.
Companies use derivatives to hedge risk. A company that borrows money at a variable interest rate might buy instruments to turn the borrowing into fixed-rate debt. Others use derivatives as protection against swings in currencies or the price of commodities such as food and oil.
Lobbyists say at least 90% of Fortune 500 companies use over-the-counter derivatives.
The administration’s proposal calls for all “standard” derivative contracts to be cleared through a central body and traded on an exchange or equivalent electronic platform.
The clearinghouse would require daily pricing of the assets, which could require companies to post additional collateral, in the form of cash or short-term securities. Customized contracts would be permitted, but the proposal would require higher levels of capital to secure against risks.
Nonfinancial companies say it’s unfair for them to be put in the same boat as Wall Street speculators, some of whom use derivatives to make bets on market movements. They also say they typically have collateral backing the risk and standardized contracts aren’t necessary.
Chesapeake Energy said it had $6.3 billion in over-the-counter derivatives as of June 2008, against which it posted $11 billion in collateral, backed by letters of credit and mortgages on its gas and oil properties.
“This is how most end-users utilize this market and, as a result, help alleviate systemic risk,” Chesapeake said in a letter to the Treasury Department.
Energy companies are particularly worried because the swings in oil and gas prices are so wide. Barry Russell, president of the Independent Petroleum Association of America, warns that restricting hedging would have “a devastating impact.”
The National Association of Manufacturers has intensified its meetings with lawmakers, officials said, as has the Business Roundtable and U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
At a recent hearing, Sen. Crapo said he agrees regulation is needed to protect the economy against systemic risk, but “if Congress overreaches … I believe there could be very significant negative implications on how companies manage risk.”
Here is a good WSJ story on Cali and LA in particular.
Why We’ll Leave L.A.
The business climate is worse than the air quality.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124718265362620253.html
my favorite line:
“Their official position is that the city is not bound by past rulings — only taxpayers are.”
#209 skeptic:Like RE with ugly yearly property taxes attached, of which you have no say in how hight they will go?
Hard assets? maybe in other areas, but not NJ
Nothing to do with real estate, but very funny nonetheless: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eooXNd0heM
Yeah, I would not buy RE in NJ or NY. CT has low property taxes though for the region so I would consider buying rental property there.
Skep but I hear the income and sales tax is murder in CT
#216 – sales tax is murder in CT
It is noticeably higher.
And the roads suck.
Spent last week drinking our way down the Mosel river between Cochem and Berncastle-Kues. If you like white wine and Belgians you’ll be right at home. Watch out for the drunken cyclists on the road though. The campers start getting hammered by 10 AM. Heading to Fulda tomorrow.
210 Kettle – Here’s the story:
“House Committee Considers TARP reinvestment”
http://www.housingwire.com/2009/07/09/house-committee-considers-tarp-reinvestment/
I remember when there was a discussion during Timmy’s testimony. The wording “at any given time” appears to imply the TARP funds can be recycled.
I thought Elizabeth said – way back when- that the concept should be challenged by lawyers representing the taxpayers.
Not her deal.
She has her hands full just trying to get the idiots to negotiate a fair price (for us) re the warrants.
DL,
Watch the Fulda Gap.
more WSJ
for Essex and anyone else interested…
LIFE & STYLE
JULY 10, 2009, 12:16 A.M. ET
The Axemen Cometh
Thomas Tull, head of Legendary Pictures, wanted to write a cinematic love letter to the electric guitar. So he called Davis Guggenheim, who had just won an Oscar for his global-warming documentary “An Inconvenient Truth.” The two crafted the outline for the movie “It Might Get Loud,” due out this August.
The goal of the film is to explain the cultural importance of the electric guitar through the eyes of those who have appreciated it the most—musicians. “I rail against documentaries that are stories you can basically download on Wikipedia,” says Mr. Guggenheim.
For “It Might Get Loud,” Mr. Guggenheim and Mr. Tull made a list of guitarists as potential subjects before settling on Jimmy Page of Led Zeppelin, the Edge of U2, and Jack White of the White Stripes. Part of the appeal was the multiple generations represented by the three men—a point that’s amplified in the film’s various clips of musicians who have shaped how the guitar has been used. The hardest part of making the film for Mr. Guggenheim was convincing the three principles to take part.
“There was a good six months of just talking to these guys and talking through the process,” he says. “And, of course, a little bit of begging.”
The film was originally composed as three separate pieces and only late in the process were the parts weaved together. The film looks at each guitarist’s relationship to his instrument. Mr. Guggenheim arranged for all three to meet on the biggest studio on the Warner Bros. lot, even charting out different entrances so they wouldn’t accidentally encounter each other along the way. Mr. White’s sometimes anachronistic approach to the guitar is shown at the beginning of the film, with the White Stripes singer creating an impromptu guitar from scratch. That approach is contrasted with the Edge’s affinity for electronic sounds and Mr. Page’s classic rock style. Mr. Guggenheim says he only has one regret about shooting the film. “I really wanted Jimi Hendrix, but he wasn’t available,” he says.
—Jamin Brophy-Warren
#220 – Watch the Fulda Gap.
… and don’t mention the war.
Kettle – Thought of you over the fourth of July as we discussed LED light capabilities, (their future), the government’s lack of forethought re green energy projects, etc.
On a happy note, one participant in the festivities for the weekend said his company’s work in solar panels (out of Santa Barbara) was backed up for 22 months.
#221 – chifi – The trailer for that has been available via FrontRow for about two weeks now. It’s on my list of things to see.
“WSJ
JULY 10, 2009
Big Companies Go to Washington to Fight Regulations on Fancy Derivatives”
Chi do you realy want the markets to know who is a house of cards and who isn’t?
“And don’t mention the war.”
Funniest Faulty Towers episode evah.
Ref Fulda: May try and visit the old 11th Cav Regiment kaserne if we have time.
http://www.lafilmfest.com/tixSYS/2009/xslguide/trailer.php?EventNumber=4129
Chicago 221 – Tosh 224 – Trailer
“If Barack Obama is truly worried about small businesses, then you can’t turn your back on someone that finances 950,000 customers,” said Bond Isaacson, chief executive officer of BlueTarp Financial, a CIT borrower that provides trade credit to building contractors.
“If they go away, it will inevitably cause the failure of some of those businesses. Take it away and you’re going to have a huge unemployment issue,” said Isaacson, whose business is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.
I have vowed never to set foot in a Mcloones ever again.
The thing that drives me up the wall about Mcloones is the New York prices with extremely sub-par service. In Manhattan when you pay $50 for an entree you almost always get a professional waiter or waitress. In Mcloones I always seem to to get the 17 part-timer who could care less. Mcloones makes me so irate I refuse to eat there and there are more than a few locals who will not go near the place.
Mcloones – the worst dining experience on the Jersey Shore.
“If Barack Obama is truly worried about small businesses, then you can’t turn your back on someone that finances 950,000 customers,”
Tough s*it. Let them go to the market and raise their own capital.
“Take it away and you’re going to have a huge unemployment issue,”
Going to have? What are we presently experiencing? A dress rehearsal?
Hubba says:
July 10, 2009 at 1:19 pm
More green shoots:
U.S. Engineers At Record Unemployment
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=481800
I though we did not have enough engeeneers/technical people in USA to support manufacturing???
Income tax in CT is significantly lower than NY and NJ.
Signed up for FIOS today. F Comcast and them non-negotiating imbeciles! Ended up with Full HD package (2 boxes) + Showtime, 25MBps internet and VOIP for $130 month minus another $10 per month for linking my cell phone to the bundle for the first 12 months (which was already a Verizon Wireless account). They also threw in a free $299 HP mini net book priced for $299.
It’s really an unbelievable deal considering best Comcast would do was $95 per month for low rez digital cable + Showtime.
I am happy. Vonage goes bye bye next Tuesday as does Comcast Cable and Verizon DSL. Just gotta wait until then to port my old phone number over.
Полностью согласна!
Oh yeah, signed up for 12-month contract with price guarantee for 24 months. Early termination is $179. No termination fee if you move and the new area doesn’t have FIOS. Otherwise contract moves with you.
114 soosh
“All that oil money and all those Federal dollar and massively in the hole. How does that happen?”
Good question. At least the other states on that list are mostly blue states that lose billions every year in taxation that goes to supporting red states. They’ve got an institutionalized gap to make up from the get-go.
Alaska? What’s their excuse?
123 chi
“Sir: I saw a bumper sticker than curdled my blood yesterday.
It said: PROUD PARENT…….PERIOD”
Hey – maybe it was just pointing out that mom is proud of her kid at this time of the month.
Stu – you paid an extra $10 per month to link your existing Verizon cell phone to your home bill?
Did they cancel you existing Verizon cellphone contract?
140 moose
“I think similarly about whether to stay in NY or take the salary haircut (and more than commensurate cost of living reduction) to move to one of those “Life 2.0″ cities. Bonus points are that I would slip below the Leerer-in-Chief’s threshold of “rich” for punitive taxes, etc.”
I’m in the process of doing that right now. I’m terrified that top marginal rates might get raised as high as they were under that pinko commie Reagan.
I agree and disagree. Problem is GMAC gave loans on nothing down SUVs and NINJA loans. CIT actually where a lot of honest middlemarket firms get their loans from. Shutting them down throws these mid-sized firms out in the cold, they are too small for GS or JPM and two big for community banking. Firms like Dunkin Donuts got their first loan from CIT, the crazy part is CIT was investment grade a few months ago. The rating agencies lowered them to junk because the FDIC dragged its feet on their application thent he FDIC turns around and says because they got their ratings lowered they won’t approve them to issue FDIC bonds. Also the high yield credit markets were open for busines in May and June and door was slammed shut in July. FDIC footdragging caused CIT to miss out on the capial raising and bond issuance period. I am fine with the FDIC saying no, but this thing was badly handled. Plus GMAC is a train wreck and they issued FDIC bonds, plus GE whose commerical finance business is in the same exact business as CIT got to issue FDIC bonds.
BC Bob says:
July 10, 2009 at 3:14 pm
“If Barack Obama is truly worried about small businesses, then you can’t turn your back on someone that finances 950,000 customers,”
Tough s*it. Let them go to the market and raise their own capital.
“Take it away and you’re going to have a huge unemployment issue,”
Going to have? What are we presently experiencing? A dress rehearsal?
204 essex
“Hard assets? Like my johnson?”
Say, that reminds me – anyone remember the line of ‘Big Johnson’ products as advertised on T-shirts? (Example: “Big Johnson Baseball Bats: Because, when you’ve got a Big Johnson, it’s easy to hit a home run.”)
The NYT has a lead article “Report Says Wiretaps Got Too Little Legal Review”. Who cares? Doesn’t everyone use DARPA-NET, sorry, I meant to say the internet, to communicate?
re#241 – John are you claiming “debt discrimination”, better get Al Sharpton on the horn and see if he can call Obama and claim that the government is discriminating againt the dunkin donuts owners by not bailing out CIT.
John,
Did you play your too big to fail trade one too many times?
“CIT actually where a lot of honest middlemarket firms get their loans from.”
J,
In some cases, yes. However, how many of these small businesses have catered to a borrow/spend/consume clientele?
Tell them to read the news. There has been a bank run, bigger than the late 20’s; Shadow banking. It’s done, kaput. In many cases, there is no assistance for these mid sized firms. They are drugged on cheap credit. Game over. The real question, are these viable entities going forward. The whole world is deleveraging/downsizing. These small businesses better adapt quick. This is the real deal.
There are too many banks, too many malls, too many restaurants. Financing is not the real issue. Capacity is way too large.
There is a hunkering going on and it’s not a fad. Savings must and will continue to grow and debt repaid. Welcome to the great unwind.
Sean, good luck with that Reverend Al is currently way too busy dealing with Michael Jackson’s estate lawyers to deal with debt descrimination.
“Because, when you’ve got a Big Johnson, it’s easy to hit a home run.”)
Sir,
Randy Johnson; the big unit?
“I’m in the process of doing that right now. I’m terrified that top marginal rates might get raised as high as they were under that pinko commie Reagan.”
That’s right, when he became president the top tax rate was 70%. Care to guess (or google) the low?
I own some CIT bonds, but I bought them after October 2008 so they were pretty cheap already so it is not a big thing. If I add in interest I am at break even. I actually expected to get burned already on some other junk I had such as C, AIG, GMAC, UIS or F. I think they will do some type of tender offer on the bonds and pref stock. I actually think they are a great buy at under 40 cents on a dollar as the tender will most likely be around 60 cents on a dollar.
I actually like CIT as a company, unlike AIG, C or GMAC who my bet was soley based on a bail-out. I did not however expect the FDIC to bothch their application like this, they should have said yes or no, not maybe.
Does anyone know any packaging engineers with pharma experience, or a pharma validation person with packaging experience? A project I am associated with needs someone with either of these skills for a contract job
you can contact me at 1elttek at gmail
” Im terrified that top marginal rates might get raised as high as they were under that pinko commie Reagan.”
This is a specious statement. First, Reagan did not set the tax rates, the Democratic congress did. Second, the rates during the Reagan Administration represented a steep decline from previous rates. Third, the tax dollars the government raised paid for a military buildup that caused the collapse of our biggest foe without a single shot being fired.
That we squandered the “peace dividand” can be laid at the feet of a host of players, including Newt Gingrich and the Shrub, and they should be held up to ridicule for their mismanagement of the nation’s finances.
To simply point to tax rates during the Reagan years without context is an intellectually-lazy exercise and the left would do well to stick to more rigerous lines of reasoning. At least in the 80s we were getting something of value for our taxes, now? Egads, we are essentially HELOCing ourselves in order to pay for video rentals and take-out food.
re: commercial implosion.
‘Ghostboxes’ haunt communities across U.S.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31748428/
BC
good to see you back
hubba beat me to it
“This is a specious statement. First, Reagan did not set the tax rates, the Democratic congress did.”
What Democratic congress was that? Congress was only Democratic for two of Reagan’s eight years in office.
“Second, the rates during the Reagan Administration represented a steep decline from previous rates.”
Does this change the fact that the current top marginal rates are lower than they were under Reagan?
Sir,
Never left.
Should have bought some more CIT today, nice rally.
CIT GROUP INC INTERNOTES BOOK 7.60000% 02/15/2013CALL
Price Quantity Date/Time Buy/Sell
46.500 15 07/10/2009 03:53:46 —
46.500 20 07/10/2009 03:09:36 —
43.738 70 07/10/2009 02:58:46 —
43.563 70 07/10/2009 02:58:42 —
39.000 50 07/10/2009 02:31:00 —
39.250 50 07/10/2009 02:30:12 —
39.000 50 07/10/2009 02:29:00
“Third, the tax dollars the government raised paid for a military buildup that caused the collapse of our biggest foe without a single shot being fired.”
We could argue over whether the things we were spending taxes on were good things to spend taxes on, but taxing and spending is still taxing and spending, even if you think it’s GOOD taxing and spending.
And at any rate, it doesn’t change the fact that the current top marginal rates are lower than they were under Reagan.
BC
I just haven’t paid as much attention recently.
J,
Buy the summer off in gold. Get long after Labor Day.
“At least in the 80s we were getting something of value for our taxes, now? Egads”
Hey – as far as I can tell, both sides of the aisle like taxing and spending; they’re only arguing about who to tax and what to spend it on.
Sir,
Then again, I have been absent for a few weeks. Setting up my bunker.
“And at any rate, it doesnt change the fact that the current top marginal rates are lower than they were under Reagan”
Of course they are. RR did the heavy lifting of beginning the decline in tax rates. The current rates reflect his philosophy, not that of Pelosi, Rangal, and most of the Democratic Party.
“We could argue over whether the things we were spending taxes on were good things to spend taxes on, but taxing and spending is still taxing and spending, even if you think it’s GOOD taxing and spending.”
We weren’t taxing and spending. We were spending more than we were taxing. Taxing and spending gives the implication of a balanced budget. The Federal government has not heard of such a thing in decades.
Off topic, but can anyone recommend a good, experienced travel agent near Wayne, Clifton or Montclair? Former TA retired; AAA is just bad and inexperienced. Thanks.
BC,
Just make sure it has a cd player and the complete works of Mozart, Glenn Miller, Sabbath, and Springsteen.
“Taxing and spending gives the implication of a balanced budget. The Federal government has not heard of such a thing in decades.”
Huh? It’s heard of such a thing in this very decade.
Pontiac’s new motto: Pontiac, we build nothing.
shore
eclectic
I like it
Worst part of Pontiac’s death is no new Firebird. Other than that burn baby burn
“Of course they are. RR did the heavy lifting of beginning the decline in tax rates. ”
Shore, I was mostly just yanking your chain. Didn’t expect quite such a good reaction, so down the garden path we went.
I am actually moving, and am expecting to enjoy dropping my income out of the AMT.
what is a travel agent? is that like a rotary phone or a token booth?
“et. The Federal government has not heard of such a thing in decades”
Clinton left a budget in surplus.
Shore [268],
Yeah, Cover Me, My City’s in Ruins and Backstreets. To reminisce, My Hometown.
“Worst part of Pontiac’s death is no new Firebird”
John,
The new G8 was my favorite American car ever.
But maybe thats because they ripped the design off bmw.
Yes exactly, John. The old TA was awesome – too bad he’s gone. Planning a European trip not with a tour group ain’t easy. Online trip planning is a pain in the ass. I want to deal with a person who can plan just what I want.
#260 Sir
Opinions are fine, but lies are not.
Top marginal rates under Reagan
70% -> 50% -> 28%
http://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/graph.jpg
Control of congress:
House: 0 years
Senate: 6 years
That equals no control of congress, but better than 0/0
“Clinton left a budget in surplus”
A minor exception
A travel agent sells floppy discs.
I thought travel agents used typewriters?
Diane,
Talk to Ivy at Libery Travel on Rt 46 in Little Falls. Tell her I sent you (jb).
She routinely beats any deal I can find online.
279 hubba
You’re putting words in my mouth and then attacking me for them. They’re your words. I said there was a Democratic congress for two of those eight years. You can call it a lie. I call it a fact.
This woman is selling her house and explicitly states, “If you are a realtor, do not call or e-mail me”. LOL!! In other words, fukc you!
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/reo/1251840804.html
thanks g. I have been banned from using AAA.
hahhaa, there was no budget surplus when Clinton was in office, that is more Washington DC smoke and mirrors, and besides what was claimed as asurpplus was a mere pittance at 129 Billion.
In no year while Bubba was in office did the National Debt not increase, go look it up on the Treasury website.
What Bubba did do was borrow from Social Security to close the deficit and create a virtual surplus, kind of like paying off one credit card with another credit card.
gary, that’s a riot!
From the AP:
Atlantic City’s casinos report 13.6 percent drop in revenue
“Shore, I was mostly just yanking your chain. Didnt expect quite such a good reaction, so down the garden path we went.”
I have never minded being yanked. I enjoy the exchange of divergent views, even when taken for “the sake of arguement,” arguendo to nom and skep. I find it unfortunate when people take personal offense to an intellectual discussion. It is only through vigerous testing of one’s beliefs that one can have faith in them.
“Of course they are. RR did the heavy lifting of beginning the decline in tax rates. The current rates reflect his philosophy, not that of Pelosi, Rangal, and most of the Democratic Party.”
The current economic crisis is also a reflection of his philosophy.
Or the end result, rather.
Now we know MJs final resting place- Shanghai- at the conclusion of his world casket tour.
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/?id=406784&type=Metro
Qiu Xuefan, vice director of Wenzhou Chamber of Commerce, has announced plans to construct a smaller version of Neverland at Xianghua Town of Chongming County, which is about an hour drive from downtown Shanghai.
Anyone have any info on this mls
2641793
Thanks
Dear Sellers,
You lost another $428 today because your asking price is still beyond ridiculous. Enjoy your dreadful dinner at Olive Garden.
Gary [285],
370K, ask, in Wycoff? In 2005, it cost 500K to live in a tent on Rt 17.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJ3snsZ1Jco
“The current economic crisis is also a reflection of his philosophy.”
Pa,
Blame it on Ronnie. After all, he told Gorby to tear down the wall. On the other hand, it’s Al Gore’s fault; he created the internet.
[200] chifi
precisely why you don’t tempt the taxman with lots of material wealth. If you have a lot (and can’t prove that you are in debt up to your eyeballs from it), then he wondereth where you are getting the money, and looks for transfers in unreported denominations from banks with palm trees out front.
[273] sir
“I am actually moving, and am expecting to enjoy dropping my income out of the AMT.”
????????
Do dish. nomdeplumenj@gmail.com
BC Bob,
(Insert Marty Glickman voice here) “Tarkenton takes the snap… handoff to Ron Johnson… off tackle… down to the 10, the 5… TOUCHDOWN!!” :)
Kettle, on the pharma/packaging, how long from Middletown, NY?
[193] skep
“when I took tax, that is how this was presented. It blew my mind for the same reason you stated (assumption that it is the gov’t’s money), but seems to be taken as a given within the legal academy.”
Actually, it goes back to feudal times and the fact that the sovereign owned all, even the serfs. Also, this construct works in virtually any governmental system, and it would be necessary otherwise citizens could assert dominion over assets to the exclusion of government, and no government wants that.
Besides, there were far more shocking things taught in tax policy than that. Like the underlying rational for progressive taxation, and how theories like marginal utility and pareto optimums and social justice are really covers for “take from those what got it.”
More on the photo from the G8
“Once news of the photos broke, searches on “o-bama looking at woman’s b-utt,” “o-bama checking out butt,” and the pun-tastic “tail to the chief” all soared through the roof. Also buzzing was the name of the young woman who O’bama and his French counterpart were supposedly admiring: Mayara Tavares (some news outlets are spelling her first name “Mayora”).
So who is Ms. Tavares, anyway? According to TheWeek.com, she is a junior delegate from Brazil. Lookups on her name are up an astounding 9,212% in one day. And while some are looking at the photo as proof that O’bama and Sarkozy could use some manners, a video from “Good Morning America” absolves the two of leering. Well, it absolves O’bama, anyway. Sarkozy, not so much. ”
Must be a plant by the Vast Right Wing Con-spiracy.
kettle,
you got mail. and hope Little Kettle is okay
Sean,
It was an additional $10 discount for already having a Verizon wireless account.
Would have been $130 per month, but lowered to $120 for the first 12 months.
My current Verizon Wireless contract is still $39.99 a month. The discount technically came off of the bundle. You can only get this discount over the phone the rep told me.
I must say, I lucked out and got a very knowledgeable rep. Switching from their closed loop DSL (since my VOIP service was with Vonage) and porting the number over was no easy task. My next difficult task will be to port my Verizon DSL email address to my new FIOS internet account. He said I had to wait until FIOS was up and running to do it.
#303 nom
http://www.nypost.com/seven/07092009/news/worldnews/tail_to_the_chief_178430.htm
Who wouldn’t have looked too.
I just envision lunch between the governors, and Ed Rendell says to Jon Corzine “are you gonna finish that?”
“For months, Atlantic City has been dreading the opening of a new casino in Bethlehem, Pa., a short drive from some of its best markets in northern New Jersey and New York.
On Friday, the nation’s second-largest gambling market got its first look at the impact of the Sands Bethlehem.
For June, the first full month that the Sands was open, revenue at Atlantic City’s casinos fell 13.6 percent from a year ago.
In what is supposed to be one of the strongest months for Atlantic City casinos, all 11 casinos reported declines, with the Atlantic City Hilton and Trump Marina topping 20 percent each.
For the first half of this year, casinos won $1.94 billion, down 15.3 percent from the same period last year.”
#209 hard assets like RE
Renting vs owning
If property bought cost $375,000 $75,000 downpayment.
If mortgage is $300,000 @ 5.2% for 30 yrs and sold in August 2019
interest paid is $144,228 balance is $244,900 after 10 years
If rent cost is $1600/ month with increases cost $230,000 in 10 years
saving=$230,000-$144,228=$85,772 + deduction if qualified
if taxes average to $12000 a year in 10 years=$120,000
Total cost is
(sale price+property tax)-Down-saving
($370,000+$120,000)-$75,000-$85,772
=$329,228
If sold at price bought $370,000
Gain=Price bought-Total cost
$370,000-329,228=$40,772
Assuming maintenance=tax deduction saving.
Realtor fee @ 5%=$18,500
Money left on hand=$40,772-$18,500= $22,272 Real profit in owning.
Owning almost equal Renting
*Force saving is where they say they made money and used to be taxable
Force saving = sale price-balance-realtor fee
=$372,000-$244,900-$18,500
=$108,600 on hand
“The current economic crisis is also a reflection of his philosophy”
That is rich. Government spending to take over private enterprises and reach into every aspect of business operation a reflection of Reagan’s philosophy? Not even with lysergic acid diethylamid could one credibly twist the current philosophies on government spending into the Reagan philosophical framework.
#308 This is justifying your living in the house.2nd homes if you don’t pay cash you get killed with interest.
I don’t know how to justify 2nd homes with mortgages.
Also, the gymnastics that wall street performed in order to avoid excessive taxation is a direct result of the complexity of the tax code, which Reagan hated. Simplicity is the friend of those who want to prevent a repeat of what led us here.
Now this is the FUNNIEST thing I read all week.
“WASHINGTON (CNN) – Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter called his fellow Democrat, Rep. Joe Sestak, a “flagrant hypocrite” and accused his rival of registering as a Democrat “just in time to run for Congress.” . . .
On Thursday, Specter’s campaign sought to bring into question Sestak’s roots to the Democratic Party. Specter’s campaign sent out a list of Sestak’s voting history in Delaware County, which the senator’s campaign said showed that Sestak registered as an Independent in 1971, didn’t vote in any primary elections from 1971-2005 and that he officially registered as a Democrat in February of 2006. Sestak was elected as a Democrat to the House in 2006.
“Congressman Sestak is a flagrant hypocrite in challenging my being a real Democrat when he did not register as a Democrat until 2006 just in time to run for Congress,” Specter said in the statement. “His lame excuse for avoiding party affiliation, because he was in the service, is undercut by his documented disinterest in the political process.”
This is gonna be a fun race to watch. My money’s on Arlen.
yome,
Let’s not even get into opportunity costs, 75K dp.
Where is this 375K, at this time, abode that will entice one to cough up 75K?
We are entering a new phase, less is more. If one purchases and subsequently losses their job, have you measured the flexibility effect? The new owner may need to relocate for a job. How is this accomplished with a sinking albatross tied to your hip?
It’s amazing whenever any proponent of RE analyzes the rent/purchase, they leave out the cost to carry. Yearly maintenance is a huge cost. A house sucks in dollars on a yearly basis. I owned for 20 years, it’s consumption not an investment.
That said, I do agree that the spread is narrowing. However, rents are falling also. It’s not a one way street.
veto that says:
The new G8 was my favorite American car ever.
I’m still thinking about getting one. Too bad they didn’t sell enough for any reliability data…since it’s GM, you should assume the worst
#314 – x – The cars should be fine as almost all of the components have been around for a bit. If you’re really interested you may want to track the stats of the Holden Commodore as the Pontiac is just a re-badged Holden.
FWIW I really dig the the G-8/Commodore, I just can’t get myself to buy any Pontiac. If it was sold as a Holden; yes, Pontiac; no. The badge just says too much, none of it good.
299 nom
will send you the update later ol’ pal
AT 0 Downpayment owning a house is negative
If property bought cost $300,000 N0 downpayment.
If mortgage is $300,000 @ 5.2% for 30 yrs and sold in August 2019
interest paid is $144,228 balance is $244,900 after 10 years
If rent cost is $1600/ month with increases cost $230,000 in 10 years
saving=$230,000-$144,228=$85,772 + deduction if qualified
if taxes average to $12000 a year in 10 years=$120,000
Total cost is
(bought price+property tax)-saving
($300,000+$120,000)-$85,772
=$334,228
If sold at price bought $300,000
Gain=Price bought-Total cost
$300,000-334,228= -$34,228.00
Assuming maintenance=tax deduction saving.
Realtor fee @ 5%=$18,500
Money left on hand=-$34,228-$18,500= -$52,728 negative Real profit in owning.
*Force saving is where they say they made money and used to be taxable
Force saving = sale price-balance-realtor fee
=$300,000-$244,900-$18,500
=$36,600 on hand
“Blame it on Ronnie. After all, he told Gorby to tear down the wall. On the other hand, it’s Al Gore’s fault; he created the internet.”
Well, you can blame Al Gore for NAFTA. He was the one clamoring for it on Larry King while Ross Perot was begging for it not to go through. Perot told us that all of our jobs would be shipped down to Mexico. At that time, GM was also busy forcing him to sell his shares because he was telling them that they were on track to bankrupt themselves. Oh yeah, but he was just a crazy guy from Texas…
Pat,
the contract is for a short period, (a few weeks?) in texas. travel would be provided
Bank Failure Friday!
TX is good.
I’ll forward.
Yome,
Wrong.
You’re still leaving a huge part of the equation out. Assumptions? This whole bust was built on a foundation of blackbox assumptions. How do you assume that maintenance, improvements = tax deduction? What about that new 100K kitchen or that 75K game room. I’ve been in custom basement bars that appear to be a duplicate of bars in Ireland. Probably assembled in Ireland, taken apart and assembled here.
Unfortunately, the asset declines, yet the debt remains.
Your scenario sounds like some pie in the sky blackbox. Do you work for BLS?
Forced savings? Simply the most asinine reason to make a purchase. When the industry touts forced savings, do yourself a favor. Don’t bend down when you drop your keys. Forced savings is the industry’s motto to move in for the kill. Whole life and universal life are also forced savings. How’s that working for the purchaser?
Ben [318],
Bingo.
toshiro_mifune says:
FWIW I really dig the the G-8/Commodore, I just can’t get myself to buy any Pontiac.
I like the front end on the Holden much better..doesn’t have that Pontiac look. The wife hates it though. That’ll be a tough sell. I’ve even seen kits on the internet where you can get the Holden front end and Un-pontiac your G8
Now’s the time to get a V-8 car and keep it in the garage for 20 years though. These are the last days of the breed.
Holden VE Commodore SS V-Series
http://www.autoblog.com/photos/holden-ve-commodore-ss-v-series/
#322 BC Bob: Could be a recent buyer, going through the rationalization stage.
BC i agree with what you are saying.I am just showing without doing anything on the house with minimal maintenance
Assuming maintenance=tax deduction you are still at a lost.In my example you need to sell the house at $352,728.00 to break even.Force saving is what is left on your hand after selling not looking back on what you spent already.
I am showing you that owning a house is not an investment.With fancy additions lost gets bigger.
#308
If sold at price bought $370,000
Gain=Price bought-Total cost
$370,000-329,228=$40,772
This not even getting back $75,000 down payment.
From this example,people that bought in 2006 holding on,hoping price will go back to what they paid in 06.Assuming it goes back they are still on negative.
Adding improvements they put in will make it worst.
Kettle1 says:
July 9, 2009 at 8:36 am
Let me just say that the iPhone rocks!!!
It’s more of a true handheld computer that happens to have a phone built in, then a phone with web access.
I have been assimilated
welcome to the dark side. dropped mine in the glass last week and panicked … the strategy is a) turn it off, leave it off over night … b) dunk it in a bucket of race
i went with option A … and my phone is 97% back.
#
John says:
July 9, 2009 at 8:38 am
If you have children moving to a town with higher class folks in increases their marriage prospects and their job prospects.
I know plenty a folk who staying in a blue collar town and had their college educated daughter hook up with the local garbage man.
John can be a riot, and this sh*t made me nearly fall out of my chair (though i have been drinking)
I think they are thinking of their wedding announcement in the NY Times. John the son of a doctor who is a trader who went to Harvard and grew up in Alpine sounds better than John the son of a pickpocket who is a gargbage man who went to Newark HS who grew up in Trenton.
Wow John, you were on fire yesterday. Funny part is our announcement got into the times. At the sunday brunch, my wife’s mom walks in with 5 copies and shouts, “read all about it!” … was pretty memorable.
got it framed. pretty framed. i’d understand if you thought that was weak.
also i would be willing to bet that there are a number of people on this blog helping family members. You and SAS are not alone.
indeed, they are not alone.
Yikes I hope this is not what you are drinking.
India death toll from toxic brew hits 112
Gujarat state leader faces calls to quit over bootleg alcohol tragedy
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31853462/ns/world_news-south_and_central_asia/
John (250)-
So bring a case against Sheila Bair for market manipulation.
John, welcome to the same world the rest of us inhabit. Isn’t it great, knowing that quality companies that post results get taken out with the garbage…while serial underperformers receive preferential treatment and get out of jail cards?
The only way to make money over the past 9 months in the corporate bond market is to place bets on companies likely to get gubmint bailouts or backstops. To hell with concepts like creditworthiness and ability to repay.
“I actually like CIT as a company, unlike AIG, C or GMAC who my bet was soley based on a bail-out. I did not however expect the FDIC to bothch their application like this, they should have said yes or no, not maybe.”
plume (303)-
One thing to look at ass. Quite another to jam a cigar in it.
plume (312)-
That’s a minnow against a killer whale. Specter will eviscerate him.
BC (322)-
I used the “forced savings” line on a buyer today and braced myself for a blowback of pure bile.
Never came.
Don’t worry…I’m not gonna schtup him.
“unlike AIG, C or GMAC who my bet was soley based on a bail-out.”
J,
Just imagine how Dick Fcuk feels? Why AIG, not Lehman? Imagine AIG counterparties receive 100 cents on the dollar, while Dick gets shafted. What was Dick’s bet based on? What would have been the outcome if Lehman wrote billions of cds with Goldman?
Stay close to your friends, closer to your enemies.
#228 Cindy,
Thank You, Thank You, Thank You.
Anyone up for an NYC GTG on Aug 14th. Ths will be the best thing to hit the screens this year.
http://www.lafilmfest.com/tixSYS/2009/xslguide/trailer.php?EventNumber=4129
urgdorff/Coldwell Banker Blending Not So Smooth
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Real estate agents who worked for Schweppe, then Schweppe Burgdorff and now Schweppe Coldwell Banker have had some experience weathering transitions before, but we’re hearing that not all the realtor campers in Baristaville are happy. There was this letter to the Montclair Times from Schweppe/Coldwell Banker realtor Barbara Lewis asserting Schweppe Burgdorff’s history as the area’s market leader. Now we’re hearing that the Schweppe philosophy/strategy might not survive in a Coldwell Banker office.
A realtor tells Baristanet off the record that there are some sticking points in bringing these two groups of realtors together, including the non-negotiable 6% flat commission fee that was a Schweppe golden rule. Burgdoff accepted the Schweppe 6%, no exceptions practice, but agents are hearing that Coldwell Banker will not charge a flat fee, and instead is willing to negotiate fees, taking 5% in many instances. According to this source, pricing homes is also a conflict issue. Says the source…
Burgdorff Montclair most always charged a flat fee of 6% and gave co operating agents 2.5%, keeping 3.5% for themselves. This, while underpricing homes to “sell for more than the asking”. The concept behind this was one of profit for the company. Less advertising costs and a fast commission coming in with “multiple bids”. This went off base in this economic downturn, where correctly pricing a house is difficult and keeping a deal together a challenge. If the house came back on the market because of building inspection issues or mortgage/appraising problems, it was difficult to get that original sale price back. Often homes had to be “readjusted down” to get the original momentum back up, which upset homeowners as they thought the original price too low to begin with.
http://www.baristanet.com/2009/07/burgdorffcoldwell_banker_blend.php#comment-435123
Gator,
Of course the sellers think the pricing was too low — “This is Montclair after all. It is different here.”
I said many times last year that I thought G.W. Bush was the gravest threat to freedom that this republic ever faced, now it seems there are documents to support that belief. Obama may leave us in economic ruins, but people like the Shrub would eventually leave us in shackles:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hEr2O_sANlmWwPWdPygTxCbq1_bQD99BVMOO0
Report: Bush surveillance program was massive
By PAMELA HESS – 11 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Bush administration built an unprecedented surveillance operation to pull in mountains of information far beyond the warrantless wiretapping previously acknowledged, a team of federal inspectors general reported Friday, questioning the legal basis for the effort but shielding almost all details on grounds they’re still too secret to reveal.
The report, compiled by five inspectors general, refers to “unprecedented collection activities” by U.S. intelligence agencies under an executive order signed by President George W. Bush after the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.
Just what those activities involved remains classified, but the IGs pointedly say that any continued use of the secret programs must be “carefully monitored.”
The report says too few relevant officials knew of the size and depth of the program, let alone signed off on it. They particularly criticize John Yoo, a deputy assistant attorney general who wrote legal memos undergirding the policy. His boss, Attorney General John Ashcroft, was not aware until March 2004 of the exact nature of the intelligence operations beyond wiretapping that he had been approving for the previous two and a half years, the report says.
Most of the intelligence leads generated under what was known as the “President’s Surveillance Program” did not have any connection to terrorism, the report said. But FBI agents told the authors that the “mere possibility of the leads producing useful information made investigating the leads worthwhile.”
The inspectors general interviewed more than 200 people inside and outside the government, but five former Bush administration officials refused to be questioned. They were Ashcroft, Yoo, former CIA Director George Tenet, former White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card and David Addington, an aide to former Vice President Dick Cheney.
According to the report, Addington could personally decide who in the administration was “read into” — allowed access to — the classified program.
The only piece of the intelligence-gathering operation acknowledged by the Bush White House was the wiretapping-without-warrants effort. The administration admitted in 2005 that it had allowed the National Security Agency to intercept international communications that passed through U.S. cables without seeking court orders.
Although the report documents Bush administration policies, its fallout could be a problem for the Obama administration if it inherited any or all of the still-classified operations.
Bush brought the warrantless wiretapping program under the authority of a secret court in 2006, and Congress authorized most of the intercepts in a 2008 electronic surveillance law. The fate of the remaining and still classified aspects of the wider surveillance program is not clear from the report.
The report’s revelations came the same day that House Democrats said that CIA Director Leon Panetta had ordered one eight-year-old classified program shut down after learning lawmakers had never been apprised of its existence.
The IG report said that President Bush signed off on both the warrantless wiretapping and other top-secret operations shortly after Sept. 11 in a single presidential authorization. All the programs were periodically reauthorized, but except for the acknowledged wiretapping, they “remain highly classified.”
The report says it’s unclear how much valuable intelligence the program has yielded.
The report, mandated by Congress last year, was delivered to lawmakers Friday.
Rep. Jane Harman, D-Calif., told The Associated Press she was shocked to learn of the existence of other classified programs beyond the warrantless wiretapping.
Former Bush Attorney General Alberto Gonzales made a terse reference to other classified programs in an August 2007 letter to Congress. But Harman said that when she had asked Gonzales two years earlier if the government was conducting any other undisclosed intelligence activities, he denied it.
“He looked me in the eye and said ‘no,'” she said Friday.
[snip]
Given certain of my business interests, this citizen fully expects that he was surveilled by the miscreant Bush’s administration and, frankly, resents the intrusion. There is a special place in the roster of presidents for this jerk and it is dead last, and it takes some pretty awful attributes to outdo Buchanan and Harding. Heck, William Harrisom, who was concious as president for, what, a day and Hays, who also failed to win the popular vote and got put into office due to questionable actions on the part of officials from Florida, all stand above the schmuck from Crawford.
Harrison, even
I’d rather be an honest soci@list than a capitalist in a police state like Dubya was running.
Never has a US prez stooped so quickly to the level of the enemy as that buffoon. Not really a lot of difference between him and Khameini, Sadr or Mullah Omar.
Clot,
ditto
Oh, for those here who were adults while Carter was president and remember the cries of Disco Sucks, a bit of a trip down memory lane:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31832616/ns/entertainment-music/
Speaking of non-disco:
Does anyone remember these guys?
http://triggerrocks.com/
Talk about good times at the Chatterbox.
Muy favorite kind of day on the boards:
http://www.roadfood.com/insider/photos/4616.jpg
The Treasury Department sent Congress legislation yesterday that would let the SEC prohibit “sales practices, conflicts of interest and compensation schemes” deemed harmful to investors. The measure lets the agency remove individuals who violate rules from all aspects of the industry, rather than a specific segment such as selling securities or managing money.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1Y6EIaLxxtI
Hired! Take a pay cut…get a job
According to our career experts, job seekers will have more luck by expanding their target market to include positions that require less skills and expertise.
Being overqualified worked to Heinemann’s advantage, which can be the case for many other experienced job seekers in today’s market as well.
“The company is getting a better employee at a bargain rate,” said Kathy Fahrman, vice president of Résumés by Professionals in Tampa, Fla
http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/10/news/economy/_demotion/index.htm?postversion=2009071006
#320 Bank Failure Friday!
Central Bank & Trust, Lander, Wyoming, Assumes All of the Deposits of Bank of Wyoming, Thermopolis, Wyoming
http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09122.html
May be a bit too conspriracy minded:
Banking Cartels Engineered Financial Crisis Endgame
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=11948
Home Sellers Slashing Prices, $27 billion in Value Gone
Real estate information site Trulia.com says that as of July 1, one out every four people trying to sell a home in the U.S. has had to lower their asking price at least once this year. The average listing has been reduced by 10%. The grand total of the price reductions adds up to $27.1 billion.
The markets with the most homes experiencing price reductions include some surprising names. Jacksonville, Florida tops the list. Boston, Minneapolis, Milwaukee and Honolulu follow. On a positive note, the survey sees improvement in some of the hardest-hit markets. Las Vegas and Los Angeles, for example, both saw declines in the numbers of home owners lowering their asking prices.
Ben Kolkman, a broker at Sotheby’s Realty in Minneapolis, shared this listing with us. It’s a 3,300 square foot contemporary home in Minnetonka that’s had its price knocked down five times, for a total of 24%, since September.
Here’s the price history:
6/17/09 – $829,000
5/18/09 – $859,000
4/3/09 – $899,000
2/17/09 – $1,000,079
9/30/08 – $1,079,000
Kolkman says the city has a particular glut of homes in the high end and a much hotter market for those priced $250,000 and below. “A lot of times to get a buyer off the fence, you have to reduce the price,” Kolkman says. “They all want to get a deal.”
#356 SG:A lot of times to get a buyer off the fence, you have to reduce the price,” Kolkman says.
Wow!! How profound!!
He,
From the article;
“After President Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act into law in 1913, he reportedly said, “I am a most unhappy man, I have unwittingly ruined my country…a great industrial nation is now controlled by its system of credit…the growth of the nation, therefore, and all of our activities are in the hands of a few men…”
That was 1913, this is today;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ79Pt2GNJo
Let’s close 2 zoos that are tourist attractions for a 4 million dollar budget cut.
http://www.thebostonchannel.com/money/20021259/detail.html
And how many billions were blown on the big dig?
Value destroyed? Value destroyed?! Ha! Many of the homes were never worth anything near where they were priced. Just because the price of something gets bid up by a mob in a panic (which is essentially what happened as people overpaid to “avoid being priced out forever) does not mean that the product had that value.
Value is being restored, not destroyed.
BC,
The man either thinks he is WAY smarter than he is or he is a liar extraordinaire. I choose the latter.
Take about great German Food, do you remember the Cornerstone in Fishkill, NY. This guy could cook a mean german dish! Or Schnellers in Kingston, NY!!!!
What was the German place up in the Highlands? Years ago I used to go there from time to time. Nice view caross the stret to NY, LI anyway.
There’s a wurst fest in the poconos next weekend. Saw a billboard for it when I was in Warren county yesterday.
Wurst fest? Sounds very Monte Pythonesque.
#365 Shore Guy,
I know you want to go in the wurst way.
Monty Python – Spam
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anwy2MPT5RE
x-underwriter
Octoberfest
I was there on the 5th. Definitely more grandparents than anything else.
I spent the afternoon chasing my 20-month-old between sips of Spaten.
Here is a piece of real estate that should be up for sale soon. If it comes furnished, one may want to get rid of the weird photo above the master bed.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1197565/Sheriffs-raid-Michael-Jacksons-Neverland-Ranch.html
X and now for something totally different
“This is a former parrot.”
‘merely resting’
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/11/business/11housing.html
“Tight Mortgage Rules Exclude Even Good Risks” NYT
“The credit pendulum is stuck on stupid…” Doesn’t that sound like something Clot would say?
Hi all, just returned from a week in Cape May.
going in on the parkway, no traffic…overall experience for the week DEAD.
business owners we asked said that income has gone down for the past two years..this being the worst. Restaurants, some dead, some packed….bartender at the hotel said his shop in the mall area went bankrupt this year…Good news..great weather and less crowds!
haven’t read the thread, but FINALLY!
babs corcoran is getting called out!! this article notes she is the Jim Cramer of real estate.
“Perhaps more significant are the mistakes Corcoran has made about the scope of the recession, which raise a larger question: Whom does Barbara Corcoran serve on air — the “Today” show viewers or her former colleagues in the real estate business?”
http://www.wwd.com/media-news/for-barbara-corcoran-the-housing-crisis-is-a-glass-half-full-2209318?module=today#/article/media-news/for-barbara-corcoran-the-housing-crisis-is-a-glass-half-full-2209318?full=true
Hey Grim, this can’t be good news for bloggers or anyone who likes free speech
http://www.nypost.com/seven/07112009/postopinion/opedcolumnists/gag_the_internet__178749.htm
yikes:
Here is a Corcoran segment from March 2006, where she calls a poor slob and his super smokin’ wife an idiot for selling his condo and renting.
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=1710092
gary says:
July 9, 2009 at 5:30 pm
Another bagholding f*cking mor0n attempting to unload after realizing that they’ve been swindled, hoodwinked, duped and taken. Oh well. This has been on and off the market for over 700 days, price went from $829,000 to $625,000. The pool is being back-filled (don’t know why). It’s right around the corner from Tony Soprano’s house. It can also be rented (BWAHAHAAA!!!). They must realize they’re dropping $3,000 per week. Not!
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/North-Caldwell-Boro_NJ_07006_1109951145
the only saving grace here is the RE agent, who looks cute
wallies says:
July 9, 2009 at 7:52 pm
#75 NYNJ –
I am in somewhat of the same situation as you here in PA. I would also like some tactical suggestions. Without getting too specific, I have been in my present 1 bedroom apt. for 3.5 years.
What town in PA?
C’mon, Chifi. Get with the program. How does it go again in RE Agent Land? Something like: well-capitalized renters are pathetic, underwater and broke “property owners” are to be admired — they also look better, have brighter smiles, and have desirable and ever-randy playmates begging for their er0tic attention.
Here Mrs. Shore and I sit, debt free, home and cars paid off, decent retirement savings, decent cash and equity position, careers humming along, healthy Little Shore, no health concerns, excellent income, living in one of the “best places to live in america,” yadda, yadda and we feel like it could all evaporate tomorrow.
we’re sort of in your position – except we just bought a place this year – and we too, feel that it could evaporate in a heartbeat.
i dont know if this is a popular opinion, but i want the economy to rebound. not through govt help or magic beans or silver bullets, either.
(and yeah, i know … aint happening.)
Rut roh. Looks like Detroit wins another dubious “first”:
“No large school district nationwide has ever filed for bankruptcy according to the Washington-based Council of the Great City Schools, an association of 67 of the nation’s largest school districts.
With that, the pension time bomb has finally gone off. And if the judge dramatically slashes wage contracts and pensions, which is what every taxpayer everywhere should be hoping, it will set a nice precedent for other over-burdened school districts to follow suit.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
382 moderated. Don’t know why.
Whoops. There is is…
No.
late to the gun talk, but went in to Dick’s Sporting Goods today to pick up a baseball bat and a football (sh*t cost $90!) and also walked out with a box of ammo (only the target practice once … as usual, out of the hollow point home protection).
we’ve got a nice little stockpile going, the goal is 1,000.
will probably pick up our next weapon when the wife’s bonus kicks in next month. hand gun for the wife or shotgun?
I seriously doubt that we will ever see the kind of trials and retribution pol clot would like to see
BUT
It seems liuke we may yet see Cheney in shackles:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/12/us/politics/12intel.html?hp
Cheney Is Linked to Concealment of C.I.A. Project
The Central Intelligence Agency withheld information about a secret counterterrorism program from Congress for eight years on direct orders from former Vice President Dick Cheney, the agency’s director, Leon E. Panetta, has told the Senate and House intelligence committees, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said Saturday.
The report that Mr. Cheney was behind the decision to conceal the still-unidentified program from Congress deepened the mystery surrounding it, suggesting that the Bush administration had put a high priority on the program and its secrecy.
Mr. Panetta, who ended the program when he first learned of its existence from subordinates on June 23, briefed the two intelligence committees about it in separate closed sessions the next day.
Efforts to reach Mr. Cheney through relatives and associates were unsuccessful.
The question of how completely the C.I.A. informed Congress about sensitive programs has been hotly disputed by Democrats and Republicans since May, when Speaker Nancy Pelosi accused the agency of failing to reveal in 2002 that it was waterboarding a terrorism suspect, a claim Mr. Panetta rejected.
The law requires the president to make sure the intelligence committees “are kept fully and currently informed of the intelligence activities of the United States, including any significant anticipated intelligence activity.” But the language of the statute, the amended National Security Act of 1947, leaves some leeway for judgment, saying such briefings should be done “to the extent consistent with due regard for the protection from unauthorized disclosure of classified information relating to sensitive intelligence sources and methods or other exceptionally sensitive matters.”
In addition, for covert action programs, a particularly secret category in which the role of the United States is hidden, the law says that briefings can be limited to the so-called Gang of Eight, consisting of the Republican and Democratic leaders of both houses of Congress and of their intelligence committees.
The disclosure about Mr. Cheney’s role in the unidentified C.I.A. program comes a day after an inspector general’s report underscored the central role of the former vice president’s office in restricting to a small circle of officials knowledge of the National Security Agency’s program of eavesdropping without warrants, a degree of secrecy that the report concluded had hurt the effectiveness of the counterterrorism surveillance effort.
An intelligence agency spokesman, Paul Gimigliano, declined on Saturday to comment on the report of Mr. Cheney’s role.
“It’s not agency practice to discuss what may or may not have been said in a classified briefing,” Mr. Gimigliano said. “When a C.I.A. unit brought this matter to Director Panetta’s attention, it was with the recommendation that it be shared appropriately with Congress. That was also his view, and he took swift, decisive action to put it into effect.”
Members of Congress have differed on the significance of the program, whose details remained secret and which even some Democrats have said was properly classified. Most of those interviewed, however, have said that it was an important activity that should have been disclosed to the intelligence committees.
[snip]
I doubt B.O. would allow Bush to stand trial, sovereigns stick together. But, I don’t know that he would lift a finger to prevent evil D!ck from getting wacked by the law.
Shore, no one’s gonna touch Cheney. I think that story is out there to take the heat off Pelosi.
http://www.smartmoney.com/personal-finance/taxes/tax-breaks-for-helping-struggling-relatives-part-2/
“Tax Breaks for Helping Out Relatives (part 2)”
Thought this might be useful to some here…
SL,
More good news for the medical industry:
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=8061143&page=1
Drug Addicted Doctors Create Patient Risk
12 Percent of Health Care Workers Become Addicted, Authorities Say
It’s a prescription for disaster. Serious questions surround healthcare workers addicted to the very drugs intended to help their patients
Former surgical technician Kristen Diane Parker was charged Thursday with three federal drug charges after she allegedly stole syringes filled with liquid pain killers and replaced them with dirty syringes filled with saline solution, according to authorities.
Parker, 26, is infected with hepatitis C, putting almost 6,000 patients at risk during surgeries at the Rose Medical Center near Denver. So far, 10 patients have tested positive for the virus.
She worked at the medical center, but was fired in April after Fentanyl was found in her system in a drug test. Her last employment was at the Audubon Ambulatory Surgery Center in Colorado Springs, Colo.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iuGkqGAql32UKlLkdn4MuIxzdUWQD99CCMF00
Scrub tech causes major hepatitis scare in Colo.
By P. SOLOMON BANDA – 7 hours ago
DENVER (AP) — Kimberly Spencer’s 9-year-old son went to Audubon Ambulatory Surgery Center last month for what was supposed to be a routine surgery. The rambunctious child stuck a BB in his ear and doctors had to operate to remove it.
What happened next shocked the family. They were notified that their son is one of 6,000 patients who may have been exposed to hepatitis C by a painkiller-addicted technician who had the disease and allegedly passed on dirty syringes to patients.
The technician has been jailed, thousands of rattled patients have been getting hepatitis C tests, and two medical facilities where she worked have been bombarded with questions about how they let it happen. Ten cases of hepatitis C have been linked to Rose Medical Center, where Kristen Diane Parker worked until April.
“It was originally a humorous child story we could write about in his baby book and now it’s just gone south a little bit,” Spencer said Friday as she awaited results of her son’s blood test. “We’re very optimistic, we think it’s going to be just fine. It’s still unnerving.”
During a police interview videotaped June 30 that was played in court Thursday, the 26-year-old Parker told a detective that she kept dirty saline-filled syringes in her pocket and watched for opportunities when doctors and nurses left the room. She then allegedly stole syringes filled with Fentanyl from operating carts and replaced them with the used syringes.
“I didn’t want to make it obvious to everyone that I was using,” the 26-year-old Parker told the detective in the interview, saying she stole between 15 and 20 syringes of Fentanyl. “I knew my limit.”
Health officials are conducting tests to determine if the 10 hepatitis C cases are definitively linked to Parker. Many people with hepatitis C don’t know they are infected because they don’t develop symptoms until years later.
Parker said she used between 100 to 250 micrograms of the drug each time, roughly enough medication for a 500-pound person, according to medical malpractice attorney Dr. Eric Steiner, a former cardiac anesthesiologist.
Thousands of former surgery patients have contacted Denver’s Rose Medical Center and Audubon Ambulatory Surgery Center in Colorado Springs for free blood tests being offered by both facilities. More than 1,900 former Rose patients have been tested, said hospital spokeswoman Leslie Teegarden.
An Audubon spokesman did not return messages Friday, but state health officials said those at that facility, including Spencer’s son, will be tested again in about seven weeks because it takes that long for the disease to show up in the bloodstream. Hepatitis C is a treatable but incurable blood-borne disease that can cause serious liver problems.
Despite a hopeful attitude for Spencer, mundane every day occurrences have taken on disproportionate significance, such as Thursday when her son fell off his bike and skinned his knee.
“A simple little scrape to me is, ‘Oh my gosh,’ we need to take care of that, wash our hands, bandage him up. It makes you think twice, for everybody; the children he’s playing with, the children I have at home. At the same time I don’t want to overreact for him. He’s nine.
“It’s probably going to be like this for six more weeks until we know for sure.”
Parker’s case could end up being the first in Colorado where a patient got an infection from a health care worker who was tampering with drugs, said Dr. Ned Calonge, chief medical officer for the state health department.
Nationwide, there were four documented cases of nurses and doctors infecting patients with hepatitis C between 1992 and 2003, according to the latest information from Centers for Disease Control. A 1992 case cited in the CDC study involved a surgical technician who was using anesthesia medications.
Parker gave several reasons for using Fentanyl, which is a narcotic 80 to 100 times more powerful than morphine: to deal with a custody battle with her ex-husband over her 2-year-old son; six-hour stretches of being on her feet; and back pain from the physical requirements of moving patients around the operating rooms.
She also said she had a problem with painkillers in the past and she may have gotten hepatitis C when she used heroin last summer while living in New Jersey.
“She’s going to take responsibility,” Parker’s attorney Gregory Graf said. He had argued that Parker should be released on bail because her cooperation with investigators proves she was not a flight risk.
A key point that could lead to more serious charges is whether she knew she was infected with hepatitis C.
She tested positive for the disease before starting her job at Rose in October, but she didn’t follow up when told about it because she didn’t have health insurance or money for a doctor and she got distracted with her new job.
She also said hospital officials didn’t make it clear she tested positive. A federal magistrate judge disagreed and declared her a danger to the community and ordered her held without bond, saying her actions showed significant disregard for the safety of others. Her next hearing is Oct. 6.
Those infected with hepatitis C are not barred from working in health services, so long as standard precautions are taken, according to the CDC.
“She knew she had hepatitis C, she’s a health care worker and she understands how this disease is spread,” said Pat Criscito, 56, an author and freelance writer from Monument south of Denver. She underwent back and hand surgery at Rose last fall and spent a sleepless night worrying about hepatitis C while she waited for her test results. Criscito said a positive result would have been meant certain death because years of arthritis treatment have severely weakened her immune system.
“If I was going to die, she deserves life in prison. I can’t understand how somebody can do that to another human being,” Criscito said, who tested negative and is waiting the results of a second test.
Hospital and state health officials aren’t sure how many people were injected with Parker’s dirty needles or with saline solution contaminated when Parker allegedly dipped her dirty needles to fill bogus syringes to cover her tracks.
snip
“Shore, no one’s gonna touch Cheney. I think that story is out there to take the heat off Pelosi.”
Tying together this story, your comment,and Michael Jackson, maybe we can deal with Pelosi and Cheney like the two gang leaders in that jackson video from way back when: tie their left hands together and give them each a knife.
“Tax Breaks for Helping Out Relatives (part 2)”
Thought this might be useful to some here…
Nom,
Can we get a deduction for all the families we are supporting through excessive taxes?
REO in Berkly Hts – looks pretty decent for the price (don’t know the street though):
http://new.gsmls.com/publicsite/propsearch.do?method=moredetails&sysid=2695733
I’d pay full price of admission to see that.
Hey Toshiro,
Looks like we’re in luck with the G8…….
BREAKING: Lutz says Pontiac G8 to survive as Chevy Caprice in U.S.; Camaro Z28 reportedly dead
http://www.autoblog.com/2009/07/11/lutz-pontiac-g8-to-continue-as-chevy-caprice-in-u-s-z28-likel/
…doesn’t it kinda make you wonder how many airline pilots, police men, detectives, FBI/CIA agents, lawyers, children’s school bus drivers, oh heck, drivers in general, pharmacists and pharmacy technicians (who mix chemo etc,) are drug addicts?
Quite frankly, I am all for barring those with HIV or Hep C from practicing in any area of medicine that would allow any potential exposure to patients.
I am also an ardent supporter of frequent routine and random drug testing of all folks in careers where addiction could harm even a single life.
Just anectdata: my father was a patrolman in Newark NJ. He was assigned a partner who routinely showed up to work drunk.
How safe do you think that was?
Flame away, feel free…. c’mon, go ahead, you know ya want to…;)
My point is simple: It ain’t just us medical folks.
sl
397 is for Shore, 390 well, and anyone else who cares.
sl
[Disclaimer, I stopped experimenting with pot after I was 15 and my pothead friend thought it would be “cool” for me and her brother to get together and bump naughty bits.]
“Uh, no thanks — what’s that, Hear that? I think I hear my parents calling me….”
SL, no worries. you sound like a good MD. fyi, I used to volunteer at SMC many moons ago. like 16 yrs wow that was long ago.
Still,
Just looking for your honest professional opinion on this
http://vaccineawakening.blogspot.com/2008/09/study-fails-to-clear-mmrautism-link.html
I witnessed it with out child and I’m witnessing the same with our neighbor’s son as of now.The little one was fine (he was bubbling and repeating sounds) until the age of 14 month, when he was given MMR,12 days after he got ears infection and was given antibiotics. He got severe rush and was sick with fever for a couple of weeks after.
Yes – I believe it was the doctor’s mistake. Since than he regressed, had undigested food in the stool every other day until we put him on a strict diet about a year ago. Much better now but still happens from time to time.
SL,
It was not meant to be a hostile pist and I apoligize if it came off that way. It was more, egads, with all the pressures on hospitals at the moment. this was not helpful news, that’s all.
As for other addicted professions, I think we can trust that medicine is not all by itself. More than a few drunken attorneys, for example, have led to clients being convicted of murder — the southern states are repleat with examples of this.
you goto a Dr. in the US, your better off doing voodoo.
SAS
replete, too
Fire, 406
At this point I express my only opinion on the vaccine/autism topic with my actions.
My kid got all of his vaccinations.
If I had more kids, they’d get vaccinated too.
I’m sorry about your child. I don’t necessarily agree that there’s enough evidence to suggest that there’s a causal relationship.
While bacteria can cause ear infections – these are often preceded by viral upper respiratory infections that allow fluid to accumulate behind the eardrum and provide a good place for bacteria to grow.
The rash could have been from the antibiotic or may even have been viral. The antibiotic may also cause diarrhea and changes in stool.
If your child had a fever for over 2 weeks, this should be evaluated further.
As for pediatric milestones, ANY infection, trauma – physical or psychological can cause regression in kids. They almost always catch back up.
What sort of diet did you put him on (just cause I’m curious) and for what reason?
sl
you goto a Dr. in the US, your better off doing voodoo.
Uh, yeah. Sure.
Really. I feel sorry for you if this is truly your belief. My field has its issues but in general your condemnation of it tells more about you than it.
Wow.
sl
Oh… and my disclaimer:
I only treat patients in a formal setting when I am not preparing bologna sandwiches at the same school that kettle is the janitor at.
You should seek your own Voodoo doctor at your own local Santeria practitioner’s home.
Hopefully you’ll make it out alive with all your body parts.
Gawd… I’ve had enough. I got stuff to go do….
sl
Shore,
No hostility taken (or inferred.)
I just seethe about folks who think that our field has some magic shield around it to repel the drug addicted, the opportunists or the other dregs of society.
I’m proud of my field. I have seen so many of the hardest working folks caring for assholes knowing they’d never get paid and could possibly be sued frivolously.
They still do their best work anyway.
sl
Escapee,
THANK YOU. (Cuz right now I’m sick of the attacks on my field and on doctors in general– uh, SAS? That means you, in case it was too subtle for you.)
sl
#381 chifi,
Was that you in the video?
don’t be so hard on babs, she was talig about forced savings. /off sarcasm
Anesthesiologists disproportionately become addicted because, in the course of bending over the faces of the patients they are treating, they are exposed to very small amounts of the drugs that they are administering; just enough to prime themselves to addiction (recent study). pretty terrible, and a waste of all that dedication and training.
I appreciate doctors enormously. they’re virtually all exceedingly dedicated and hard working. no, they’re not perfect. yes, you have to do your own homework when you can to guide them. so what?
a friend of mine was just saved from her own silly eagerness by the new appraisal rules. a house that she and her partner want to buy in Hollister, CA, which would have easily gone for 1.2 million a couple of years ago, was just appraised at 760k (after she and her partner had offered 860k, contingent on appraisal). I hope that she gets this goody that she so wants, but not at a bubble price! she’s being forced to make an offer that makes more sense (still too much, but she won’t listen to me).
per kettle’s post re the employment parabola, I fear that most folks in gary’s position are going to need to consciously give up on paid work, and instead devote themselves to reading cheap old used books, scavenging, and turning their dwelling into a commune with a vegetable garden. oh, yes, and raising small animals for the stewpot, or fermenting tempeh for the roasting pan, in the basement. does this mean that those of us that already live that way, are no longer cranks?
Shoreguy, it’s funny that you see the present economic mess as a threat to your financial security. the reality, if you crack a history book, is that none of us have any true security, with or without good economic times. I’d have to wake my husband to remind me which ancient greek said to “call no man happy until he is dead”, and perhaps not even then, because of the bad things that can befall one’s loved ones afterwards. the present bad times are simply a vivid reminder of an ongoing reality. which is why you might want to stick to the northeast and avoid the Puerto Rican villas with bars on their windows, since location still matters. nothing bad has happened to anyone except Native Americans in rural CT in the past 400 years, apart from the exceptions that prove the rule.
yikes (391)-
Derringer. Sexy, yet effective.
“…hand gun for the wife or shotgun?”
Shore-
Highlands German restaurant- The Hofbrau House. There’s also The Little Kraut in Red Bank.
Also, Fritzy’s in Howell. Although I think the quality has suffered with the management change several years ago…
I mean, seriously, do these sellers sit at the table in the morning with coffee and hope that someone makes an offer within the asking price? Really. It’s a shame that this realtor is even leading these people to believe that they’ll even sell this house. Geezus, it’s almost criminal. This house has to be reduced $250,000 to even get some action. I’m f*cking speachless.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Clifton-City_NJ_07013_1109820704
Спасибо за Ваш труд!!
For all the comp killer fans – Hunterdon County Comp Killers!
24 Willow Brook Ln, Clinton Twp NJ
Purchased: 2/1/2006
Purchase Price: $725,000
MLS# 2637608
Listed: 1/27/2009
List Price: $675,000
Sold: 7/1/2009
Sale Price: $590,000
18% under the 2006 sales price
6 Manning Ct, High Bridge NJ
Purchased: 7/28/2004
Purchase Price: $419,000
MLS# 2673988
Listed: 4/15/2009
List Price: $399,900
Sold: 7/8/2009
Sale Price: $390,000
7% under the 2004 sales price
40 Kentworth Ct, Raritan Twp NJ
Purchased: 8/25/2004
Purchase Price: $350,000
MLS# 2646673
Listed: 2/11/2009
List Price: $344,040
Sold: 7/2/2009
Sale Price: $324,000
7% under the 2004 sales price
35 Lance Rd, Readington NJ
Purchased: 12/15/2004
Purchase Price: $730,000
MLS# 2512084
Listed: 4/26/2008
List Price: $760,000
Sold: 7/1/2009
Sale Price: $691,000
5% under the 2004 sales price
karen
here here!
Re: German Restaurants –
Sorry to report….the Hofbrau Haus has been demolished and turned into 2 buildable lots. While the location is primo, with a view of NYC from the highest point along Scenic Drive….the timing of it all was less than optimal.
Those lots are still for sale today.
416. In response to the earlier question about blogs…user generated content…this passage would fall under the heading of ‘genius’. The stuff of “intellectual alchemy” as indicated by ChiFi.
Essex: did you see the post on the movie?
Lot more bizarre, Ikan-duyung in Indonesian)?You could follow-up, movies In fact.China are always, remember about Christmas.Each different product Freelance Website Designer London Essex Ecommerce Shopping cart designers, Shell in price of.In our (Indonesian), on moisturizing the.,
Rocket scientist to, to dehydrate your?Of your kitchen, and for different.To wear closed, answering the interrogation.So a person jacksonville mortgage refinancing, blade sizeSaw blades Be aware also.Stand apart and, triangles Any singles.,