The New Jersey Home Price Index Tracker has been updated to include:
* May S&P Case Shiller (Aggregate, Tiered, Condo)
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
S&P Case Shiller NY Metro Commutable Area Home Price Index
Low Tier (Under $284606) – Peaked in October 2006 and is down 24.51% from peak
Mid Tier ($284606 – $417722) – Peaked in September 2006 and is down 22.74% from peak
High Tier (Over $417722) – Peaked in June 2006 and is down 16.95% from peak
Aggregate (Overall Market) – Peaked in June 2006 and is down 21.00% from peak
Condo-Only Index – Peaked in February 2006 and is down 13.80% from peak
NY Metro Area Aggregate Year over Year Changes
May 08 -7.74%
Jun 08 -7.04%
Jul 08 -7.04%
Aug 08 -6.61%
Sep 08 -7.13%
Oct 08 -7.71%
Nov 08 -8.72%
Dec 08 -9.17%
Jan 09 -9.74%
Feb 09-10.33%
Mar 09 -11.80%
Apr 09 -12.45%
May 09 -12.21%
Bonus Graphs from Veto and Kettle:
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
More Kettle/Veto graphs can be found here: http://tinyurl.com/mwlab5
First!
From the WSJ:
Study Finds Underwater Borrowers Drowned Themselves with Refinancings
By Nick Timiraos
Why are so many homeowners underwater on their mortgages?
In crafting programs to prevent foreclosures, policymakers have assumed that the primary reason homeowners owe more on their home than it is worth is that they bought at the top of the market. In other words, they’ve lost equity primarily through forces beyond their control.
A new study challenges this premise and finds that excessive borrowing may have played as great a role.
Michael LaCour-Little, a finance professor at California State University at Fullerton, looked at 4,000 foreclosures in Southern California from 2006-08. He found that, at least in Southern California, borrowers who defaulted on their mortgages didn’t purchase their homes at the top of the market. Instead, the average acquisition was made in 2002 and many homes lost to foreclosure were bought in the 1990s. More than half of all borrowers who lost their homes had already refinanced at least once, and four out of five had a second mortgage.
The original loan-to-value ratio for these borrowers stood at a reasonable 84%, but second and third liens left homeowners with a combined loan-to-value ratio of about 150% by the time of the foreclosure sale date.
From the Record:
Area home prices drop 12.2 percent
Home prices in the New York metropolitan area, which includes North Jersey, dropped 12.2 percent in the 12 months ending in May, the Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller home price index reported this morning.
Nationally, prices were down 17 percent in that period.
While the declines were steep, there were signs that the erosion of home values is easing. Earlier this year, national home prices were running about 19 percent below year-earlier levels.
And in the New York area, prices held steady from April to May of this year, after dropping 1.6% from March to April.
From the other thread:
Theyll be at a picnic table on the South Lawn I think
I doubt it. I suspect that, after they each get a tour of the ground floor and first floor, B.O. will greet them in the Oval Office. The room tends to disarm people. He then invites them to the Residence. This will knock their socks off. Then, the topper, they go upstairs to the solarium and have a beer, maybe cook a burger, on the little pattio up on the souteast side of the third floor, overlooking the sunset and the Washington Monument. From this vantage point, they will be overlooking the area where the crowds massed for the March on Washington and Kings speech.
THAT, will have them eating out of the palm of his hands.
So, we have a bunch of fools who pulled-out cash from the home ATM andspent it on things that brought them happiness or a benefit of some sort. Now, when prices tank, we are supposed to pay them back, essentially, so they don’t lose the house? They had two choices, pull out cash or not. If they guessed wrong, let them sell the stuff they bought and pay off the loan themselves.
My friends in Redbank have refinanced at least 3 times now. Each time they do it, it is to pay off their credit cards by lowering their monthly nut. They are now 5 years into their new home, still have 39 years to go on their mortgage and owe almost 100K more on their home than they originally paid for it. The worst part of this whole story is that they continue to spend like drunken sailors. Both my friend and his wife have their own blog and they seem to do nothing but spend money on concerts, travel or on needless improvements to their home.
I expect them to be a statistic soon enough. Especially considering that only the dad works and the wife and daughter are spoiled rotten.
I meant to say 29 years to go on their mortgage. Sorry ’bout that!
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/28/the-latest-entry-into-the-cheating-hall-of-fame/
Freakonomics – NYT – “The Latest Entry into the Cheaters Hall of Fame”
Cheater!
Stu,
With negative am, it was not outside the realm of possibility.
Stu,
With the interest they are paying in year 1, oy!
Stu 6 – 5 times actually.
And with the refis, they must be paying year-one interest year after year.
How many years have they been in the house?
Shore 13 – 6 years…and they made 100k on their previous home with nothing left to show for it now.
A refi every 14 months? If rates were dropping or one were going from 30, to, 25, to 20 etc., that is one thing. Their way, is, well, pathetic.
NJC,
How were the pain killers today?
“Their way, is, well, pathetic.”
My guess is that their way is all too common unfortunately.
Stu,
I am certain you are correct and that we will both be paying for them and their ilk.
GECC trying to hack Tyler Durden?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ge-commercial-zero-hedge-love
stu
they have a blog?
wait, this is news? Re: people went broke by refi, not buy peek purchase? I thought this was common knowledge, but admittedly I was just assuming it was the case on anecdotal observations, not hard data.
I’m really feeling that angst from the previous thread regarding putting your life on hold, but I think when all is said and done, the last few years will have saved me 30%, not 10%.
peak even
Jack Shaw found dead. Defense lawyers pissed at loss of revenue
hell, I know someone who refied out 13k for private kindergarten even though they lived in a top notch district. Why? Didn’t want to have the little one get bused to a daycare after hours. Yep.
I’m really feeling that angst from the previous thread regarding putting your life on hold
Don’t understand the “life on hold” comment at all. Do you just stop doing everything while renting? Cocoon yourself in your home and turn into a recluse?
What about all the folks renting in Manhattan? Or those who rent for work-related reasons (travel, relos, etc). Are their lives on hold too? What about those who buy condos? Are they on hold? Does on hold only apply to those renting apartments, or does it apply to houses too?
What the hell does the type of ownership associated with the property really have to do with living your life?
Or are you really just not going anywhere, and are looking for an excuse?
25.
I work out of my home and I’m passionate about architecture and design. I realize I may be unusual, but my living space means A LOT to me. Life on hold? Maybe a little dramatic but certainly life less lived.
Construction to begin on $70 million complex
Hmm, what about those folks who can’t sell their properties.
Suppose their lives are on hold too, and they own.
Foreclosure? Has a kind of “life on hold” ring to it too.
Hey, what do I know. They got to paint their walls. Just can’t measure those kinds of quality-of-life intangibles.
grim,
depends on why they need to to sell. Can’t have it all, I’m ok with my 30% saved.
Readington may borrow $8M to buy farmland
Our lives would have seriously been on hold had we won a bid we made in 2004.
Never could’ve taken the transfer my husband was offered last year.
Renting is freedom.
You can stuff your wallpaper. If I want it, I’ll rent a house with wallpaper.
Seriously, does anyone truly believe that buying a house during the next ten years will be a net winner over renting?
Livingston developer expands plan for condo tower on Millburn border
But I kinda sorta feel like I need Juanita right now, and that I can’t have Juanita if I rent.
But that’s my own personal insecurity and vacation choice.
Slide in Home Prices Is Slowing Down
More green shoots in the world’s game:
(ESPN)- The start of Argentina’s soccer season next month could be delayed over money clubs owe their players, Argentine Football Association (AFA) president Julio Grondona said on Tuesday.
“There is no doubt that the beginning of the tournament is at risk because several clubs have very big debts,” Grondona told the cable TV channel TyC Sports.
“This can be sorted out in one day, two days or several weeks… We have asked for meetings in the coming days but we must put things in order, there’s a limit to everything.”
The Apertura tournament in the opening half of the 2009/10 season is scheduled to kick off on Aug. 14.
Grondona said some of the country’s biggest clubs — River Plate, Independiente, Racing Club and San Lorenzo — had debts that players had officially lodged with their union.
The debts were due mainly to the large contracts clubs signed with players and their difficulties in meeting payments were the result of a lack of income from transfers, he said.
“They are paying very high salaries (and) one of the main (revenue) resources was the sale of players and now it’s very difficult to transfer them,” he said.
‘Extreme Makeover’ extremely expensive: winning man forced to move out
“Hey, what do I know. They got to paint their walls. Just can’t measure those kinds of quality-of-life intangibles.”
grim, I pretty much agree with the general premise of this blog but no everyone is the same. I’d ride around in an owned and beat up 99 minivan with no complaints, head held high, something that would make the male contingency on this board cringe. People are financially irrational about all sorts of things.
Barb,
I can appreciate architecture as much as the next buff, but we live in NJ.
What sort of architecture can be had in the < half million dollar range? what about the sub 750K range?
Have you seen the types of crap boxes people have been stampeding to get into?
Wow.
From previous post:
179.BC Bob says:
July 28, 2009 at 2:17 pm
[177],
Piss poor performance when you consider the cost to carry. Why don’t you compare this laggard to stocks, over the same time frame
What i am trying to convey is:
Unadjusted
United States $119,600 $79,100 $47,200 $17,000 $11,900 $7,354 $2,938
1940 $2,938 price doubled in 1950
1970 $17,000 almost tripled in price in 1980 at $47,200
Put your self during that time 1970 to 1980.People got to be really scared how much prices are going up same feeling as we have now except median unadjusted home prices in the US will not even be double of $119,600 from year 2000.
Don’t you think people are saying the same thing we are all scared about now.But they survive all is well.Price increases every 10 years.I never said anything about a house being an investment nor it is a laggard to stocks.The recession we are having now will always go back to a mean after so many years of inflation.
zieba,
in 1999 I could have bought a 3 story 3 bath Vic in Essex that needed work (fine by me, I want to put my own stuff in, not pay for someone else’s) in the high 200ks. That same hose is still selling now at 450-500k with 200k of needed renos.
I’ve been at this for a long time, I’ve owned 4 houses (still do) and looking back I could have bought in nicely. At this point I’m hoping for 2003 prices. I’ll buy in at 350-380 with 150-70K of work needed.
I’ve been wondering what’s going on at Edison train station for about a month.
Found an answer – porkulus money at work.
http://www.njtransit.com/tm/tm_servlet.srv?hdnPageAction=PressReleaseTo&PRESS_RELEASE_ID=2503
41.
What is porky about that?
269.veto that says:
July 28, 2009 at 5:11 pm
Subprime, when your wife is nesting and the baby comes and you are still living in rentors squalor and overpaying for it at the same time and you and your wife havent slept for a year and then the baby gets old enough to climb up the walls, i want to know how your wife is going to react when you tell her that you need to wait another year to buy a real home until the alt-a option arms blow-up and prices will finally collapse to zero, I wonder if you will get the same look of disappointment and disgrace that i get from my wife.
veto: I am not sure if you are joking…
I rent a massive place in one of the nicest towns in NJ for about 30% less than owning and also not tying up a down payment. I have a 2 1/2 son and an 11 day old daughter. The house is pristine and huge. The house across the street is empty and for sale. The house down the street was recently auctioned off. People in out neighborhood were hoping that we bought the place and gave a vacant stare when they realize that we haven’t.
Barbara,
The stimulus plan money
44.
I know but do you consider it pork? Sounds like money well spent considering people are on a lot waiting list and we don’t need more cars on the turnpike.
Barb #21
Definitely not news… House near my parents in Oradell is for sale as possible short sale, asking $500k… Purchased in 2000 for $365k
Barbara,
I’m pretty sure it could be done for much less money. As far as I remember a couple years ago there was a developer willing to build a parking lot along with some shopping/condo next to the station. Guess what? The town rejected it.
4.7 million for a parking lot?? give me a break
Besides, I’ve not seen any activity for the past week. And yes, all the rented caterpillars and water tank truck are still there. At least 6 month for a freaking parking lot???
Walmart WITH the parking lot on RT27/RT287 was build in less than that
build=built :(
U.S. Pays $2.5 Trillion for Care Costing $912 Billion
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=ac_Ad5Car70M
And yes, how about that simple solution,
Metroplex building which is across the street of the parking lot being built to offer a parking permit? They have at least 900 cars parking space and it’s about 30% filled. I see people park there and see their cars towed away from time to time
Harvard Prof Gates Is Half-Irish, Related to Cop Who Arrested Him
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=8195564&page=1
BC Bob says:
July 28, 2009 at 12:45 pm
No need to worry. After all, Facebook is valued at 6.5B.
“U.S. factory output at its lowest point in 60 years, and even massive job cuts haven’t produced profits.”
facebook will save the day!
or, be irrelevant in 3 yrs, like myspace
It has been a good 4-5 years since I “started looking” for a place to buy. Back then my excuse that stuff was just going up too fast and was way overpriced. I was laughed at by my family and friends.
Since then I’ve more than doubled my income, finished my degree, paid off all debt, I’ve got a beater and a “new” truck (paid for), and I’ll have a nice fat down payment when I want to buy.
Yes, I’ve been renting in “sub par” places (except one of those years) and drive a POS because it gets 40mpg, but have I wasted those years? I don’t think so. I’ve accomplished quite a bit to be proud of.
It isn’t just a savings of 10% on the cost of the house, it is everything else that I was able to do while I wasn’t worried about how I was going to make the mortgages I could barely afford.
green shoots! chinese stock market down 5% overnight.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS#chart5:symbol=000001.ss;range=5d;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
look at this 6-month chart. a typical head and shoulder pattern. topped at 98, 96 and then 94.
disclaimer: all technical analysis are self-fulfilling prophecy.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GLD#chart10:symbol=gld;range=6m;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Wells Fargo’s Expansion Kindles Passion for Investment Banking
July 29 (Bloomberg) — Wells Fargo & Co.’s $12.7 billion purchase of Wachovia Corp., meant to bolster deposits and mortgage operations, has deepened the company’s commitment to investment banking as corporate stock and bond sales surge.
“There are just fewer competitors out there,” said Sloan, 49, head of wholesale banking’s commercial, real estate and specialized financial services group in Los Angeles. “We’re out pitching business everyday.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aNzKTxVP5Mm8
excuse the VERY general question but can someone explain (basically) why short selling is bad? (in a way that i can understand it)
thanks in advance…
In response to post #55 (copied and pasted below)
Your a smart man. Interesting how folks have such a need to impress always wondered if it is low self esteem or something like that. Its amazing when you put your head on your pillow at night how much better you sleep with a bit of mortgage debt and nothing else.
Some people can afford to live like that but most are all hat and no cattle.
Most of the downside has been beaten out of the market but it would not surprise me if we fell another 6-8%. A month or two of false hopes will get taken away but more reality this fall.
DoughBoy says:
July 29, 2009 at 12:02 am
It has been a good 4-5 years since I “started looking” for a place to buy. Back then my excuse that stuff was just going up too fast and was way overpriced. I was laughed at by my family and friends.
Since then I’ve more than doubled my income, finished my degree, paid off all debt, I’ve got a beater and a “new” truck (paid for), and I’ll have a nice fat down payment when I want to buy.
Yes, I’ve been renting in “sub par” places (except one of those years) and drive a POS because it gets 40mpg, but have I wasted those years? I don’t think so. I’ve accomplished quite a bit to be proud of.
It isn’t just a savings of 10% on the cost of the house, it is everything else that I was able to do while I wasn’t worried about how I was going to make the mortgages I could barely afford.
The older I get the less and less I care about impressing others. Right now I am heading towards no debt at all.. my goal is to pay off the mortgage and be debt-free. I am enjoying the challenge!
“I rent a massive place in one of the nicest towns in NJ for about 30% less than owning and also not tying up a down payment.”
Chi,
Then again, since you rent, you must lead a shallow existence.
[57],
You are totally clueless. If you look closely at the chart and pull up a yearly chart you will notice an inverse head and shoulders, not a head and shoulders. What does your blackbox indicate regarding that?
Correct me if I am wrong. Didn’t the moderator request that if you speak about particular markets, you MUST cough up your position.
Are you short this etf?
Topped at 98, 96 and 94. Please explain how this constitutes a H & S formation. Just a total bunch of BS.
Probably time for a 3 week vacation.
We went looking at both rentals and houses to buy. We found we could either buy a 3 bedroom 1-1.5 bath on a slab in great shape, a pos ranch/cape/colonial with a basement, or for a few hundred a month less rent a much larger, renovated house with CAC (sorry, no granite).
We decided to rent again.
As much as we’d like to own and settle down, we figured we’d rather rent a great house than buy a house that’s too small for us and/or needed tons of work.
Chi- have you explained to your 11 day old daughter that her life needs to be on hold since her Dad doesn’t have a gigantic mortgage on the house she lives in?
The whole life on hold while renting story is the biggest load of horse sh!t I have ever heard. Liquidity and mobility is freedom. Your life BEGINS when you start renting.
“Liquidity and mobility is freedom.”
homeboken,
Bingo.
66-
May I add that in addition to “liquidity and mobility” when you rent you don’t have to spend your valuable free time doing yard work, repairs, etc. That is a whole lot of free time.
“Don’t understand the “life on hold” comment at all. Do you just stop doing everything while renting?”
Grim, From a financial perspective, i could care less about putting life on hold but from my family’s perspective, i totally understand this comment. My wife and daughter don’t want to live with someone else’s old carpets. She wants to customize the kitchen and bathrooms to her liking. As a renter you are limited in this regard. She was a fashion major in college and takes pride in decorating and entertaining. What she does for fun is bake cakes and plays with color palets so her life is put on hold when she is not in a position to do those things.
Also, from a monthly cash flow basis, its more expensive to rent in this area so it means we rent a smaller place than if we bought. Her family is out of state so she would like a bigger place with a guest room where they can stay with us for extended periods.
Chi, my comments were serious. I am shocked that you rent for less than it costs to buy. I have done the rent purchase cost analysis many times and there is no comparison. I use 15% downpayment and 5% mortgage in my analysis.
Yome, that 1970s to 1980s runup is mostly inflation. Use the adjusted home price data and you may see a different story. Or as an alternative, divide by median incomes over the same periods.
@60 NJones – Doughboy @55 – Some people can afford to live like that but most are all hat and no cattle. – Good one.
Folks were buying over their heads or pulling equity out of places that had decent mortgage payments, then putting themselves underwater. My hope is that a generation learned from their mistakes and will be more fiscally responsible when they own a home next time. Folks like you know exactly what you are doing and why you are doing it.
Meanwhile – @61 – House Whine – Hear, hear – I’m with you. $65,000 to go. That may not seem like much money to all of you but it is a fortune to me and at my monthly salary will take me 4 more years to pay off.( I hope.)
There is no telling what will happen to taxes here in CA, I feel it is imperative I pay off the place before I retire.
Grim, the condo and manhattan comparisons make an interesting point but most people with families could never be comfortable in either unless the sq footage was significantly larger than avg.
I think you would find higher rates of single people and/or married with no kids couples in those types of dwellings. thats just a guess.
veto,
Case closed.
If it’s more expensive to rent, in your area, then buy. I haven’t found this to be the case in my area, although the spread is coming in. Funny, I was told countless times that the spread would never come in, just continue out.
It’s getting there, not quite yet, in my area.
BC Bob:
The only head and shoulders Bi sees on a daily basis is on the corner shelf in his shower stall.
70 –
Cindy: Although I am not really sure that paying off my mortgage is the smartest thing to do I feel it will make me sleep better. Good luck to you too!
This past Sunday I visited a number of open houses in Ramsey. I tend to do this from time to time for entertainment purposes. ;) Anyway, the houses that were well kept and in the 600K – 650K range were absolutely swamped with people. I don’t know exactly how to interpret the high volume of traffic, I’ll lot you decide but a lot of people were out and looking. It seems that anything in the 500K range was an on the dreadful side. We saw one listed at $490,000 that needed major renovation. Just my observations.
U.S. Borrowing Estimate Cut 28% By Goldman as Economy Improves
July 29 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. will sell about $2.9 trillion of debt in the two years ending September 2010, or 28 percent less than initially estimated because federal assistance to the financial markets has been smaller than anticipated, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRXVAFoYHZls
I’m not looking for mobility. I’m looking to stay in one place. How many times can I pack up and move. The stress of moving is to much for me. Now with a baby it gets even harder to move.
@74 House Whine – “Although I am not really sure that paying off my mortgage is the smartest thing to do, I feel it will make me sleep better.”
Same here. It was never an investment for me – simply a paid-for roof over my head.
@72 BC – Another good point – Rents were skyrocketing here in 1999 – exactly why I purchased. I could not envision ever being able to retire unless I owned my home. I wouldn’t make enough in retirement to cover escalating rents, or a mortgage with taxes etc.. I needed a paid-off home.
But I’m 60 and in a different situation than most of you. You have years to zero in on those choices. It may be that rent will always be a better choice there – given your property tax situation.
#69 Veto I am going by the stat.It says Unadjusted.They have figures for adjusted to
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/values.html
I will appreciate it if you can look at it and explain what i am seeing differently.
On the unadjusted prices are going up more than 10% every 10 years. Thanks again.
Chi,
Congrats on the new baby!
Gary,
Did you see the post about the “software engineer” jobs being advertised … firm with offices on Wood Ave. in Iselin?
I posted the link for you yesterday or the day before …
Not sure if you’re a “software engineer” ..I just know you’re a computer guy :)
With a lot of the guys/gals that I work with, I’ve noticed that there are a lot of either pregnant, planning to be, or recently first child families.
The running theme is that, by the time they “need” to leave their Hoboken, NYC, urban environments so their children can have a dog, a yard, and a good school the market will have come back.
Does anyone else see this as a new trend? In the next 3-4 years are we going to see an exodus of young families from those urban centers into all of the vacant cookie cutter McMansion neighborhoods?
Cindy (70)-
I think we all know where taxes are headed in CA.
The swine in Sac will return to the trough when the current budget “fix” gets blown to smithereens. This time, they will be able to pretend that all cost-cutting measures have been employed.
Gates is Irish too eh? So Obama, Gates and the Crowley are all related.
Time for a little Irish humor then.
One day, heaven is beginning to fill up so St. Peter decides to ask each person a question about the bible before they can enter. Three men stand at the pearly gates, waiting to get into heaven. “How many wise men were there?” St. Peter asks the first man. “Three.” He answers, and the trumpets sound, the gates open, and the first man enters.
“How long did the flood last?” St. Peter asks the second man. “Forty days and forty nights.” He answers, and the trumpets sound, the gates open and the second man enters. Seeing how easily the first two answered his trivia, St. Peter thinks of a much more difficult question for the second man. Finally, he asks, “What was the first thing Eve said to Adam in the Garden?”
The man thinks and thinks, but can’t come up with an answer. “Boy, that’s a hard one,” he finally says. And the trumpets blow, the gates open, and the last man enters heaven.
82. Unsure if the mCmansions really hold the same allure for the educated buyers.
#79
On the unadjusted,prices are going up more than 10% ANNUALLY every 10 years
Stu [73],
Actually, if he/she turned the chart upside down, it would be a correct statement.
Upside down charts? Reminds me of BIA.
69.veto that says:
July 29, 2009 at 8:14 am
Chi, my comments were serious. I am shocked that you rent for less than it costs to buy. I have done the rent purchase cost analysis many times and there is no comparison. I use 15% downpayment and 5% mortgage in my analysis.
veets: Owners on my street think their places should be worth $800,000 to $1M. I think they should clear at $650,000.
Taxes are roughly $1000 to $1500 a month.
I know my landlord’s situation because of public records. My rent doesn’t even cover his mortgage payment, which is interest only and based on a spread of the UST 1-year constant maturity, so his current interest rate is in the 4% area. He put down 20%. We have a 3 year lease with no increases.
10% annually, every 10 years? How does one deciper that?
Chi [88],
Booyaaa.
Veto
I’m curious to know where you live in. This is the first I’m hearing where buying is cheaper then renting. If that is the case, I am wondering why you’re not buying now, unless there are some other circumstances you’re not disclosing here.
About the rent vs. own argument.
Gator and I took the plunge back in September of 2004 after 4 years of renting together and countless years of us renting separately prior. From 96-99 I made two bids on homes that were not accepted. So you could say that we had extremely pant-up demand for owning. Although our salaries were increasing at a healthy clip, it simply appeared that we were rapidly being priced out of the market and not just in upper trainville. Well you know how the story goes from here. A great deal landed in our laps through a private sale that at the time probably priced somewhere in the range that gave us between 50 and 75k worth of savings (downside protection) over what the average sucker was paying. We jumped on it and threw our 20% down (98K) for our multi in Montclair.
Five years later, our home is worth approximately what we paid for it, but to make it rentable/liveable we sank about 60K into it to upgrade three 1940s bathrooms, improve the electric and split the circuit boxes, finish the basement and to get the plumbing to work properly. We still have to level a kitchen floor and need to tile from our backdoor through to our kitchen and replace a rotting back door. Keep in mind, most of this work was performed by me or through the use of super cheapo labor.
So let’s look at the scorecard. We spent 158K, we owe about 350K on our 30 year 5.5% mortgage and we have taken in about 90K in rent. At the same time, our carry costs (insurance, taxes, utilities for 2nd unit) have been approximately 80K. So that works out to us having spent about 150K even before factoring in our mortgage payments. So downpayment aside and just looking at our mortgage payments + carry costs + improvements minus our rental income, we spent 108,000 and have about 38,400 equity in our home. So in 5 years of owning our home, we spent 69,6000. So, not counting all of the sweat equity we put into it, we could have rented a place foe $1160 a month for the same time period and have had a lot less ownership induced headaches. Keep in mind, if we didn’t get such a sweetheart deal and had paid 50K more for our multi then we did, renting would have definitely been the better way to go.
Absent from all this analysis is the property tax deduction(which is now capped well below what we should receive), mortgage interest deduction (which we gained for three years prior to entering AMT) and depreciation of many landlord related items. Although, I think this is less of a wash than the 5K per year we could have easily made investing the downpayment had we rented.
So when all is said and done fellow bloggers, the costs of home ownership and the advantages of having a garden, walls painted light blue and a kitchen with a newer stove might not be worth having to endure listening to the constant complaints from your upset partner. Even with our slight gain (which I expect to soon become a loss), I would have been much happier renting for six years and having waited to purchase a single family home in 2010 at a price 200K lower than what my multi was worth in 2004.
I would listen to Grim. He knows what he’s talking about. You can’t put a price on mobility, especially with the upcoming jobless recovery.
#89 – Means that if you buy a house in NJ now for $500,000, it will be worth more than $8,000,000 when you pay off the note.
Sean 84 – He’s as Irish as bacon and cabbage and stew. There’s no one as Irish as Barack O’Bama…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Xkw8ip43Vk
Is Shaquille O’Neil Irish?
scribe,
I’m not a Software Engineer, exclusively, but I’ll look for your link. Thank You! :)
is Dave Chapelle French?
[91],
Thanks. By the way, it’s the weakest seasonal period for the metal. I’m hoping for 850-880. If attained, I’ll load up after Labor Day. My hands are tied behind my back until then.
Freshen up on your technicals. It’s a bullish, inverse H&S.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE July 28, 2009
INTERVIEWS: DEAN DEBNAM 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888 (serious media
inquiries only please, other questions can be directed to Tom Jensen)
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POLL: TOM JENSEN 919-744-6312
Christie holds double digit lead
Raleigh, N.C. – Public Policy Polling’s monthly look at the race for Governor of New
Jersey finds Republican Chris Christie leading incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine 50-36.
That 14 point lead is up from 10 at the end of June.
Christie has a 54-26 lead among independents, and holds Corzine to just 64% of the
Democratic vote, while receiving 86% from within his own party.
Attack ads running against each candidate right now don’t seem to be having much of an
impact on how voters view either of them. 42% have a favorable opinion of Chris
Christie with 32% seeing him negatively. That’s virtually unchanged from a month ago
when the spread was 43/33. Corzine’s spread is 33/56, also pretty similar to his previous
36/56 number.
“A visit from Barack Obama and negative ads against Chris Christie haven’t gotten Jon
Corzine any momentum so far,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
“The key to his chances of getting reelected is going to be moving that 64% of the
Democratic vote he’s earning right now closer to the 90% mark.”
One area where Corzine particularly has some work to do is among minority groups that
are usually supportive of Democratic candidates. Even though 92% of blacks in the state
approve of Barack Obama’s job performance, only 64% of them are currently saying
they’ll vote for Corzine. And while 67% of Hispanics approve of Obama, they’re
currently going for Christie by a margin of 50-33.
Approval numbers for Obama and the state’s Senators will be released tomorrow.
PPP surveyed 552 New Jersey voters from July 24th to 27th. The survey’s margin of error
is +/-4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce
additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at http://www.publicpolicypolling.com.
JB [93],
A bubble we all missed.
Well in that case, my boots are tied up to my head. Don’t know if I have enough pairs for this venture!
Hmmm not curious at all….
Officials investigate death of Hudson County political consultant charged in corruption sting
JERSEY CITY — A veteran Hudson County political consultant charged last week in a sweeping corruption sting was found dead today in his Jersey City home, and authorities were investigating whether he committed suicide.
Jack Shaw, 61, was one of 44 people arrested in the federal probe, which ensnared elected officials, political operatives and members of the Syrian Jewish communities in Deal and Brooklyn. Authorities said Shaw accepted a $10,000 cash bribe from an FBI informant and suggested the informant give an additional $10,000 to a Jersey City official, later identified as Mayor Jerramiah Healy. The mayor has not been charged.
A major player on the Hudson County political stage going back decades, Shaw was discovered dead shortly after 5 p.m. in his apartment at Portside Towers, an upscale waterfront complex in the Paulus Hook section.
Jersey City police and Hudson County Prosecutor Edward DeFazio declined to characterize the death pending an autopsy, but three officials with knowledge of the investigation said multiple bottles of pills were found near Shaw’s body.
One of the officials said that while investigators suspect suicide, they did not want to jump to conclusions because Shaw suffers from an unspecified medical condition. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity, citing the probe’s early stage.
Shaw’s death came on the same day Secaucus Mayor Dennis Elwell, one of six elected officials arrested in the sting, resigned his post, saying he wanted to devote more time to his legal defense.
Through his lawyer, the Democrat also said he would drop out of the mayoral race this November instead of seeking a fourth term. Elwell is the only elected official arrested to have resigned.
“He’s going to focus his attention on the unproven allegations that are made against him,” said Jeffrey Garrigan, one of Elwell’s attorneys. “He’s decided that he doesn’t want to be a distraction to the governing body.”
Shaw’s death brings a dark new component to the scandal. Friends and former associates said that for a time, he was a force in New Jersey politics, working with former Gov. James Florio and former Assembly Speaker Joseph Doria, among others.
Doria resigned as commissioner of the state Department of Community Affairs last week after FBI agents searched his Trenton office and his Bayonne home in connection with the investigation. He has not been charged.
In more recent years, Shaw stayed closer to home, remaining active in Jersey City and Hudson County campaigns.
“Jack Shaw was a very intelligent political operative,” said state Sen. Ray Lesniak (D-Union), who first got to know Shaw in Trenton. “Very blunt, straight forward, and intellectual … not a tough guy, a Hudson County politician type. He was more of a thoughtful analyzer of the issues and what the public wants from government.”
Jersey City Councilwoman-at-Large Willie Flood called Shaw a staple in New Jersey’s second-largest city.
“Everybody knew Jack,” Flood said.
Indeed, the Democratic operative had a hand in just about every administration — and access to the county’s most powerful politicians — in recent decades.
“He was a go-to guy for getting things done,” former Jersey City Mayor Gerald McCann said, adding that he believed Shaw to be an honest and honorable man.
“He’s definitely not a guy who would be involved in taking bribes,” McCann said.
The criminal complaint against Shaw, however, contends he did just that. In a meeting with the confidential informant on Feb. 17, the complaint states, Shaw accepted an envelope with $10,000 inside, telling the informant, a purported developer, it would clear the way for the necessary approvals in Jersey City.
The alleged bribe was one of many handed out by the informant, Solomon Dwek. Also charged in the sting were Hoboken Mayor Peter Cammarano III , Ridgefield Mayor Anthony Suarez and two Assemblymen, L. Harvey Smith (D-Hudson), 60, and Daniel Van Pelt (R-Ocean), 44.
Cammarano and Suarez, both Democrats, have resisted demands to resign. But fallout from the arrests has had an impact on those around Cammarano. A member of his transition team resigned last week. Today, his chief of staff, Joseph Garcia, quit his $125,000 a year post.
“When Peter offered me this position, I was genuinely excited,” said Garcia, a Columbia Law School graduate and son of a Hoboken police captain. “I was excited about the job because I was aware of the problems that had been plaguing Hoboken and thought this new administration could fix them.
“Given the recent allegations, I don’t see how it’s possible to work towards those goals.”
Garrigan, Elwell’s lawyer, said in a statement that his client’s resignation was “in the best interest of both his family and the people of Secaucus.”
“Those who perceive this action to be an admission of culpability as to the pending criminal allegations are gravely mistaken,” he said.
Elwell’s duties were immediately assumed by Councilman John Reilly, who was already serving as deputy mayor. Reilly, who ran for office on Elwell’s ticket, said he supported the mayor’s decision to step down.
“I think that was the right thing to do for himself, his family, and more importantly, the town of Secaucus,” Reilly said. “Secaucus needs to have government moving forward without any distraction or cloud hanging over it.”
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/07/officials_investigate_death_of.html
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Excluding Cars, Planes
Orders for U.S. durable goods, excluding automobiles and aircraft, unexpectedly gained in June, signaling that manufacturing may expand in the second half of the year.
Excluding transportation equipment, orders for goods meant to last several years climbed 1.1 percent, the most in four months, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Total orders fell 2.5 percent, the first decrease in three months.
The durable-goods figures used to calculate economic growth indicate that companies plan to boost investment in coming months, adding to evidence the worst recession in five decades was starting to ease. Caterpillar Inc. is among companies seeing steadier demand as government stimulus plans here and abroad start to kick in, signaling an economic recovery is in sight.
“Manufacturing is still weak, but the weakness is abating,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “We should see orders turning up in coming months, specially now with auto production ramping higher. That would set the stage for an upturn in business investment and an economic recovery.”
#93
#89 – Means that if you buy a house in NJ now for $500,000, it will be worth more than $8,000,000 when you pay off the note.
Grim it seems that way,a median price home in NJ $4528.00 in 1940 is worth $170,800 in 1990 not adjusted to 1990 inflation.You can add zeros at the end it seems that is the trend.That is how i understand it.
I will appreciate it if you can explain what i am missing.I think this is a official record too.
From MarketWatch:
June durable-goods orders fall 2.5%
Weaker orders for automobiles and airplanes translated into a worse-than-expected 2.5% decrease in durable-goods orders in June, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday.
It was the first decrease in the past three months for durable-goods orders.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been forecasting a 0.6% decline, banking on weakness in the auto sector to prevail over modest improvements in other industries. Orders rose a revised 1.3% in May. This is down from the prior estimate of a 1.8% increase.
101 Njgator
Love all the sentimental comments on the NJ.com website regarding the story. This is why nothing will change in NJ.
Here is some real hard numbers that explain it all.
Bubble took off 1-1-00 in house. Case Shiller assigned that date as a base reading of 100. The latest base reading is 139.18. That means homes have risen in value 39.18 since 1-1-00. Now that is 9.5 years ago. So 9.5/39.19 is a 4.16 annual increase since the start of the bubble.
Add in taxes and maint and you will see even those who bought in 1999/2000 did not make much. Considering back in 2000 you could get a 5.5% ten year tax free muni bond the 4.16 tax free gain on housing does not look too good and much worse considering the costs and headaches.
I will appreciate it if you can explain what i am missing.I think this is a official record too.
You are missing both increasing home size and increasing quality as being major contributors to those price increases.
Home sizes have increased dramatically since the 1940s. In addition, quality of fixtures and finishes have improved substantially as well.
In addition to adjusting for inflation, you’ll need to adjust for size, quality, and cost of input materials as well.
Due to recession last year I cut my stud fee, those are just some of my new clients.
DoughBoy says:
July 29, 2009 at 8:43 am
With a lot of the guys/gals that I work with, I’ve noticed that there are a lot of either pregnant, planning to be, or recently first child families.
The running theme is that, by the time they “need” to leave their Hoboken, NYC, urban environments so their children can have a dog, a yard, and a good school the market will have come back.
Does anyone else see this as a new trend? In the next 3-4 years are we going to see an exodus of young families from those urban centers into all of the vacant cookie cutter McMansion neighborhoods?
107#, increasing quality? everyone here said the homes built in 50 years ago were best in quality. all mcmanssions are craps.
Grim I can understand what you are saying.Homes got biggger since then but trend since 1940 is the same or it will start reversing now?
New Jersey $170,800 $162,300 $60,200 $23,400 $15,600 $10,408 $4,528
See, this is a big f*cking problem. Instead of sitting here parsing over data and what-ifs and all that goody good bullsh*t, perhaps we should organize a semi-civil unrest and force the issue. $700,000 for this double wide. Please tell me what I’m missing here? Start rumors, incite fear, do whatever it takes to accelerate the process in order to adjust the trend line. WTF, Goldman Sachs does it, the government does it, why shouldn’t we? What if we all target one home and put in 15 bids @ 80% of the asking? You think that will send a message?
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Wyckoff_NJ_07481_1107374909
Bi Thank you
Grim, I think the key sentence in your first durable goods order article was… “Caterpillar Inc. is among companies seeing steadier demand as government stimulus plans here and abroad start to kick in, signaling an economic recovery is in sight.”
Yup, replace consumer spending with government spending. Didn’t work in the 1930s even when much of workforce was made up of farmers. Definitely won’t work in the 2000s when most of workers are in service-oriented jobs.
On the bright side, there are some birds in the San Francisco Bay that will enjoy a much better quality of life.
yome (79)
yep, thats it. Look at the inflation adjusted numbers on the link you showed.
From 1970 to 1980, real prices went from 90k to 120k. thats more of a sustainable run up of about 3% per year home price appreciation.
Home sizes have increased dramatically since the 1940s. In addition, quality of fixtures and finishes have improved substantially as well.
From NPR:
Behind the Ever-Expanding American Dream House
The average American house size has more than doubled since the 1950s; it now stands at 2,349 square feet.
…
Consider: Back in the 1950s and ’60s, people thought it was normal for a family to have one bathroom, or for two or three growing boys to share a bedroom.
Gary “double wide” funny stuff.
You need to include the MLS ID #80012354 in your rant, it will be sure to draw the seller here via google search and will also get Grim some additional hate email.
The quality argument and cost are two completely different things. I too think the quality of pre-50’s home were much higher, but the cost to build them that way were not. Today, what someone pays for quality ($100 for a bathroom faucet) is significantly higher than what the 1940’s builder paid (inflation adjusted) for a faucet of the same quality. Of course, today there are lots of faucet choices. In 1940, it appears there were much fewer choices if any.
[84] sean
When I heard that joke, it was three nuns. Made it funnier.
Stu,
In the 40’s, the only folks with granite/marble kitchens and baths were the Rockefellers.
[108] john
Funny. None of them look like you.
BTW, your clients have hired me, and will be seeking refunds.
“This is the first I’m hearing where buying is cheaper then renting. If that is the case, I am wondering why you’re not buying now, unless there are some other circumstances you’re not disclosing here.”
Lost, this is what im seeing here in mercer county. Plus we are expecting to put down 25%-30% down, so it makes the monthly payments way less than renting.
The reason we still rent is easy. We are waiting for prices to drop. Which they have. But now they are taking forever to drop and seem like they are somewhat stabilizing. If thats the case, we want to buy.
Means that if you buy a house in NJ now for $500,000, it will be worth more than $8,000,000 when you pay off the note
You think this is not possible?Just add zeros at the end you see a trend.
New Jersey $170,800 $162,300 $60,200 $23,400 $15,600 $10,408 $4,528
I mean, justify it for me and perhaps I’ll understand. Really. And for arguments sake, let’s say that one has 30% or better to put down, why would you? Where is the logic?
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/49-Van-Syckel-Ln_Wyckoff_NJ_07481_1108183133
#121 I know somebody that lives in Princeton junction,House appraised at 1.1 mil in 2006 latest appraisal is less than 700G.
Not to mention the technological improvements associated with heating/cooling systems, insulation, windows, etc.
Veto Et al
In regards to the discussion yesterday about interestrates Vs purchase price of homes.
here is some data for you.
http://www.scribd.com/full/17774807?access_key=key-1iuiocdddvknqvf9va2r
stu (92)-
The jobless recovery will be preceded by the jobless worldwide depression.
“You can’t put a price on mobility, especially with the upcoming jobless recovery.”
Gary 123 – Cleary because of that wall mural…and they must be including the lighting fixtures.
Grim
In addition, quality of fixtures and finishes have improved substantially as well.
I call BS on this one. Most construction in the last 10-15 years, including fixtures and finish are of lower quality from what was built in the 50’s-70’s.
Veto That,
Don’t forget to calculate what you think the interest earned had you invested the downpayment is worth.
If we had put 0% down, we would have jingle mailed ages ago. If housing does a double dip, you will shoot yourself for not having put down less.
FHA all the way baby!!!
gator (101)-
Maybe Shaw had just opened his statement that contained his option-ARM adjustment…
“Shaw was discovered dead shortly after 5 p.m. in his apartment at Portside Towers, an upscale waterfront complex in the Paulus Hook section.”
Gary – you should really look in Glen Ridge. $699k will get you this classy bedroom. It’s a bargain – reduced from $749k.
http://imagehost.gsmls.com/pubhigh/51/2681151_6.jpg
Kettle1,
“I call BS on this one. Most construction in the last 10-15 years, including fixtures and finish are of lower quality from what was built in the 50’s-70’s.”
As a homeowner of a 1920’s home, I wholeheartedly agree. Everything purchased in the 50s and newer is breaking. Everything original shows no sign of wear. This is the case from light switches to pipes, to plaster vs. sheetrock. The whole 1950s addition to our home has faulty heat, sagging sheetrock, rotting windows, etc. The rest of the house is beautiful.
gator,
That sky mural is great. If the roof leaks, you can just tell the prospective owners that those are rain clouds.
NJGator,
The owners need a sitdown and a long talk.
Gary 135 – I think you are just the guy to give it to them. I will have to look out for the next open house and keep you in the loop.
111 gary
Its an REO on Carlton, the bank must be hoping for big money. They mustn’t have got the note on the house across the street going from $930 to $540 a few weeks back.
“What if we all target one home and put in 15 bids @ 80% of the asking? You think that will send a message?”
I like the path there could be something here… next GTG pick a target prop and bring a stack of blank contracts. love to see the listing agents face when his fax machine runs out of paper during contract # 11 & there’s 4 more to go
Don’t forget VA loans, all you vets! 100% financing, and your mortgage is assumable, to boot.
Best deal going! You can’t do better than getting into a house on a free call option.
If things go belly-up, one of your biggest expenses of homeownership will be the stamp you put on the envelope in which you mail the keys back to the bank.
re: Fixtures
I heard that if you order fixtures direct from the Manufacture you have to ask for the “Japanese version” since the Chinese manufactures all think Americans love junk.
Don’t forget that high-grade Chinese drywall…
This is a property i bought in 1996.I still own it but if i sold it 10 years later at the same price i bought it,i am still ahead.No major improvements
IF SOLD FOR MORE EQUITY INCREASES
1.Realtor fee is $5000
2.property tax is $300 included on $900
3.Opportunity cost- i am saving $300/month
4.Mortgage interest-included on mortgage $600/month
5.Repairs-No repairs DIY
6.Lawn DIY
7 Transaction cost $5,000
property bought cost $100,000
mortgage is $100,000 @ 6% for 30 yrs and sold after 10 years
interest paid is $56,050 balance is $83,504 after 10 years
rent cost is $1300/ month with increases cost $180,000 in 10 years
sold at price bought $100,000
Balance @ $83,504
Total cost you said $15,000 with realtors fee
—Even—
taxes average to $4000 a year in 10 years=$40,000
saving=rent cost-(mortgage $600x 120 months +property tax)
saving=$180,000-($72,000+40,000) = $68,000 Saving + deduction if qualified
#123 gary
They are just keeping up with the neighbors. Also I think 49 just dropped the price from $899
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/56-Van-Syckel-Ln_Wyckoff_NJ_07481_1108183227
The whole “life on hold” discussion makes me laugh. My spouse and I have been renting for many years. Renting has given us the freedom to do what we want. We are living our lives. Thanks to renting, we’ve been able to take yearly trips to Europe, make films, go out to dinner regularly without giving it a second thought, and eat largely organic foods at home. Did I mention regular visits to the theater?
My friends who bought houses do little else than pay their ridiculous taxes and their mortgages. When yearly taxes amount to the same as yearly rent, only an idiot would think buying was financially wise.
#142 The house is paid for now.Property tax is $5600 a year.When rent is $1600 a month I am paying $466 a month.Yes buying can be less than renting.
106.John says:
July 29, 2009 at 9:18 am
Here is some real hard numbers that explain it all.
Bubble took off 1-1-00 in house. Case Shiller assigned that date as a base reading of 100. The latest base reading is 139.18. That means homes have risen in value 39.18 since 1-1-00. Now that is 9.5 years ago. So 9.5/39.19 is a 4.16 annual increase since the start of the bubble.
Add in taxes and maint and you will see even those who bought in 1999/2000 did not make much. Considering back in 2000 you could get a 5.5% ten year tax free muni bond the 4.16 tax free gain on housing does not look too good and much worse considering the costs and headaches.
John,
Its worse than that. The CS numbers you quote imply a compound rate of return of 2.8%
Just trying to cheer up the RE bulls!
CWS:
Earnings: A Moving Target
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2009/07/2009_earnings_a.html
“So expectations are now higher than they were on September 10, 2008. The difference is that the S&P 500 then stood at 1,232.04 compared with yesterday’s close of 979.62.”
clot
Don’t forget VA loans, all you vets! 100% financing, and your mortgage is assumable, to boot.
Best deal going! You can’t do better than getting into a house on a free call option.
i have been tempted several times…..
wow the giants are selling tickets at face for this season on ticketmaster right now. friend just bought the cowboys game row 11 in the 300’s. That is scary they did not sell out the Giants and even scary good seats still left for the best game.
use this number 2122947 to access the offer
High frequency trading = portfolio insurance = lookout below:
“By 1987, however, the problem was the sheer number of people following the strategy and the market share that they collectively controlled. If a fall in the market leads to people selling according to some formula, and if there are enough of these people following the same algorithm, then it will lead to a further fall in the market, and a further wave of selling, and so on — until the Standard & Poor’s 500 index loses over 20 percent of its value in single day: Oct. 19, Black Monday. Dynamic portfolio insurance caused the very thing it was designed to protect against.
This is the sort of feedback that occurs between a popular strategy and the underlying market, with a long-lasting effect on the broader economy. A rise in price begets a rise. (Think bubbles.) And a fall begets a fall. (Think crashes.) Volatility rises and the market is destabilized. All that’s needed is for a large number of people to be following the same type of strategy. And if we’ve learned only one lesson from the recent financial crisis it is that people do like to copy each other when they see a profitable idea.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/paul-wilmott-high-frequency-trading-may-increasingly-destabilize-market
Sometimes I also wish I was gay. You guys have so much freedom that us hetros with kids don’t have.
EWellie says:
July 29, 2009 at 9:59 am
The whole “life on hold” discussion makes me laugh. My spouse and I have been renting for many years. Renting has given us the freedom to do what we want. We are living our lives. Thanks to renting, we’ve been able to take yearly trips to Europe, make films, go out to dinner regularly without giving it a second thought, and eat largely organic foods at home. Did I mention regular visits to the theater?
My friends who bought houses do little else than pay their ridiculous taxes and their mortgages. When yearly taxes amount to the same as yearly rent, only an idiot would think buying was financially wise.
#111
Gary, PGC beat me to it. I mentioned that one a while back. I noticed someone from HS as the realtor, asked them what was up with it a few months back. Same story, bank owned, just sitting there. And, the house across the street getting crushed (mentioned by PGC) was noted here some time ago.
#151 John
I thought you were and were just overcompensatng. lol
Sorry, John. I am a woman with a husband and a child. Plus, we have another on the way.
EWellie,
But what about the “pride in ownership” you are denying yourself. How on earth can you hold your head up in polite society when you don’t own your own nest. Do you find the shame difficult to endure?
(tongue clearly in cheek)
everyone see this yet?
78%: Boomers’ share of GDP growth during the bubble years of 1995 to 2005
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_31/b4141026524433.htm
wonder how that works out as the boomers retire and lose/redirect income and reduce consumption…..
” can someone explain (basically) why short selling is bad? (in a way that i can understand it)
thanks in advance ”
Who says it is? Short sellers help show that the emperor has no clothes.
OT – Anyone have good Napa/Sonoma suggestions for people who don’t drink wine? The friend I am travelling with doesn’t drink. I want to find some interesting things for her to do up there since she is graciously going to be my driver.
Kettle,
I wonder how much of that spending was either: spending money inherrited from death of parents or grandparents (found money as it were) or spent in anticipation of mom and dad or the grandparents passin-on cash and other assets at death.
This is a good read.
PIMCO’s August 2009 outlook
… Now, however, things have changed, and it is apparent that there is massive overcapacity in the U.S. and indeed the global economy. As reflexive delevering has unveiled the ugly stepsister of the “great 5% moderation,” nominal GDP has not only sunk below 5%, but turned at least temporarily negative. If allowed to continue – and this is my critical point – a portion of the U.S. production capacity and labor market will have to be permanently laid off. Nominal GDP has to grow close to 5% in order for the economy’s long-term balance to be maintained. Otherwise, employment levels become unsustainable, retail shopping centers unserviceable, automobile production facilities unprofitable, and the economy itself heads towards a new normal where unemployment averages 8 instead of 5%, housing starts total 1.5 instead of 2 million, and domestic auto sales 12, instead of 16 million annual units. Critically in the readjustment process, debts are haircutted via corporate defaults and home foreclosures, and equity P/Es are cut based upon increased risk and substantially lower growth expectations. A virtuous circle of expansion turns into a vicious cycle of recession or low-growth stagnation. Label it what you will, but a modern capitalistic economy based on levered financing and asset appreciation cannot thrive if its “return on capital” or nominal GDP suffers such a significant shock.
Can they do it? In other words, can they successfully reflate to 5% nominal GDP and recreate an “old” normal economy? Not likely.
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2009/Investment+Outlook+August+2009+Gross+Investment+Potion.htm
“OT – Anyone have good Napa/Sonoma suggestions for people who don’t drink wine?”
Wacky weed!
John (106) and Anon (146)
Actually, it is a 3.53% annual rate of growth.
139=100*x^9.5
(log(1.39)/9.5=log x
10^0.01505=1.0353
or 1.0353^9.5=1.39
Gator,
She can advertise for a boy toy to keep her entertained while you are tasting the fruit of the vine. What happens in Nappa, and all that.
121 Veto
Thanks for the info. I think though, all along many of us have agreed that once house prices started to drop we’d be looking at probably a 5 year period or more until prices drop down to bottom. Some say houses would remain flat after that for a few years. My opinion has always been that sellers would be more reluctant to sell at a lower price because they’ve seen what previous sellers have gotten. They refuse to face the fact they can’t have those prices. I think that while historically we might have seen prices take 5 years to drop to bottom, it will take longer this time around. If we agree that prices here peaked in 05 or 06, and its been 3 or 4 years, I don’t think we’re anywhere near a bottom. I do not think we’ll see a bottom next year or even the year after. But then, I live in NY so you know, it’s different here.
SHore 159,
interesting question, but somewhat irrelevant. a substantial portion of consumption that supported our GDP for the last 10 years was a 1 time event and is now rapidly receding.
in an economy that is 70% consumer spending the consequences are crystal clear.
The government will try and obscure this by drastically increasing government spending which will conceal a portion of that loss albeit at the expense of the taxpayer. That however is a short term option if you want to avoid banana republic status
Gary,
Maybe you should extend your job search to Philly. Look what you can get 8 miles from the city in Cherry Hill. Yard!
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/220-Southview-Dr_Cherry-Hill_NJ_08034_1109914374
“Add in taxes and maint and you will see even those who bought in 1999/2000 did not make much.”
J,
Funny, how I always agree with you. Many make a huge mistake not adding the cost to carry in their analysis.
Spot on.
Kettle,
The one-shot nature of the spending (well, the revenue side anyway) is a key thing that seems to be overlooked. Instead of using spikes in income to smooth out future dips, too many people (state governments too) seemed to assume that a one-time spike is the new “normal.”
@130Stu says:
July 29, 2009 at 9:40 am
FHA all the way baby!!!
now just think. fha plus buying at the bottom. = money in the bank, good rate and manageable mortgage payment. success!
re: #160 – Gross is saying basically unless you day trade the US markets you aren’t going to get jack returns from the US markets.
Perhaps it’s time to pack up and move if we are facing a decade of no growth I can think of better places I would want to be.
And the same people who buy real estate laugh at 5% tax free munis.
BC Bob says:
July 29, 2009 at 10:32 am
“Add in taxes and maint and you will see even those who bought in 1999/2000 did not make much.”
J,
Funny, how I always agree with you. Many make a huge mistake not adding the cost to carry in their analysis.
Spot on.
Lost [164],
Yes, housing demand may crash, or as Bob Toll states; “It’s like somebody turned off a switch”. Yet, the decline in prices is like Chinese Water Tortue. I stated from 2005, it will take at least 5-7 years from peak. Many are disappointed that prices have not fallen further in this time period. I’m actually surprised how far they have come down in a short period of time.
Now, if the govt continues with their gimmicks/band aids, the decline, peak/trough will take much, much longer.
If this continues to occur, we will all be turning Japanese.
As i study this chart on the first page, and if the economy continues to stabilize, i dont see NY metro prices crashing as low as the light blue line suggests. I see more of a stabilization in line with the brown line.
http://tinyurl.com/mwlab5
Thats more of a best case scenario. Still, that would be a huge price correction for this region.
No Escape for the Fed.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/KG31Dj02.html
172 BC
I think you and I have been on the same page the entire time. Although, I may have been calling for a more drastic price cut from peak.
We need to move because we can’t stand it here anymore. Unfortunately, having a big dog makes that difficult. I did agree that if I could transfer my job to a spot in the city or SI, I would agree to rent in NJ but that doesn’t look like its happening either.
#156 – Thanks for that link ket.
J [171],
I don’t get it either. As an investment, RE, can’t compare to stocks and muni’s.
RE should not be considered an investment, rather consumption.
Sean,
Great article. As long as we are all turning Japanese, might as well start reading the Asia times now.
Lost [175],
Yeah, I was much too conservative. My call, back then, was 30-40% off peak. Funny, at that time, the majority said I was delusional. Present day, still delusional, too conservative. Good times.
RE: “My rent doesn’t even cover his mortgage payment, which is interest only and based on a spread of the UST 1-year constant maturity, so his current interest rate is in the 4% area. He put down 20%. We have a 3 year lease with no increases.”
Chi, you may want to keep up to date on the “Protecting Tenants at Foreclosure Act of 2009” which became law recently.
Here’s the summary: if the property goes into foreclosure, and is bought at auction by someone intending to live there, you have 90 days to vacate. If the foreclosing lender holds onto the property, your lease must be honored during that time.
it’s getting better: oil down 6%, gold down 2 days in row. buying and staying in your home is the best: enjoy your life and get appreciation for long run.
RE should not be considered an investment, rather consumption.
BC,
I beg to differ. Consumption for your own roof only. The only benefit is forced savings.
However, owning income generating properties WAS one hell of an investment.
179#, still delusional. check out gary’s posts. all “nice” nj towns hold very well – 10% within the peak price.
“enjoy your life and get appreciation for long run.”
Good night Grandma. Good night John-Boy.
[183],
Check with Grim/Chiller.
“However, owning income generating properties WAS one hell of an investment”
Make,
My bad. Was talking about principal residence.
185#, grim/chiller is a statistics. you have to look at the area around you.
joke of the day.
Nomura Etiquette Class Question:
Why don’t women wear watches?
Because there’s a clock on the stove.
“grim/chiller is a statistics”
[187]
Grim is a statistics? What the hell is your blackbox? LOL. Lost my apple.
Has anyone looked at this book? Looks kind of interesting and ties into some of the arguments about ownership vs. renting in discussion today.
The Cul-de-Sac Syndrome
The roots of the worst housing bust in generations lie in the mythology of the American dream: buy as much house as possible, move away from urban centers, home prices will always go up, the schools are “better.” The foundation of the dream itself is faulty; indeed, the desire that “every man have his castle” is bankrupting us.
Today’s crisis in home values is the least of suburbia’s problems. The Cul-de-Sac Syndrome details the intimate connections between home ownership, economics, and the environment. John Wasik provides powerful insights into how the U.S. suburban lifestyle became unsustainable.
Wasik’s observations are firmly grounded in exclusive on-the-ground research, interviews with thought leaders, and the latest studies and statistics. He exposes the untold truths about home ownership: “green” isn’t always so “green,” life isn’t cheaper after accounting for gas, water, and taxes, and modern suburban living isn’t so idyllic considering the toll it takes on our health. However, some are attempting to revive suburbia, and Wasik shows us how. He offers insights into ways to improve our current lifestyle: eco-friendly communities, rebuilding and reclaiming inner cities, improvements in home design, and more.
http://www.ordering1.us/bloombergbooks/product.php?pid=339
EWellie says:
July 29, 2009 at 9:59 am
The whole “life on hold” discussion makes me laugh. My spouse and I have been renting for many years. Renting has given us the freedom to do what we want. We are living our lives. Thanks to renting, we’ve been able to take yearly trips to Europe, make films, go out to dinner regularly without giving it a second thought, and eat largely organic foods at home. Did I mention regular visits to the theater?
My friends who bought houses do little else than pay their ridiculous taxes and their mortgages. When yearly taxes amount to the same as yearly rent, only an idiot would think buying was financially wise.
——————-
You made a financially wise decision to rent within your means. But some people also rent above their means. The key is not whether you rent or buy, it’s whether you make financially sound decisions. In the same vein, I know somebody who bought at the top of the market and does the same things you do (and more). Your friends didn’t do the wise thing. It’s not about renting or buying, it’s about renting or buying within your means.
In completely off topic news; BMW is pulling out of F1 at the end of the season saying they need to re-prioritize spending and find ways of making the 3 series even heavier. Alright, that last isn’t true… you can’t make the current 3 any heavier.
This rent vs buy argument goes round and round and round. Never be solved as it depends on a multifacted decision including both financial and personal perspectives. Your mix to arrive at the decision can be skewed a bazillion different ways.
I first picked up on this list when I had to move to NJ for work, and it definitely contributed to my decision to rent when we got there. Thanks to all. We had moved three times in the previous 6 years and I had a suspicion that my move with the company was not going to last. We banked the equity that we had received from the previous sales which was aided by the fact these moves were assisted by the companies paying for moves, points, realtor fees etc. Never heloced, no credit card debt, no car payments- zero. (And no silver spoon.)
Now we have moved again, this time to the Boston region (yeah yeah fire away- I don’t follow baseball) and we have bought. Circumstances changed: we bought in Concord, at about 30% below assessed and all homes up until 18 months ago were selling at or above assessed, and we bought at 2002-3 prices. Great downpayment, reasonable mortgage locked in at the mid May low spot, and still enough in savings if major items blow up at the house, or I lose my job. I analysed the risk/benefit in having to move again related to my job and figured my networking over the past 24 months and the number of biotechs up here suggests that I should be OK. (Always a risk.)
To us, great buy, great house, exactly what we were looking for in a home. Also, 2 kids, 2 and 5, and twins coming literally any day. So the wife comfort/relaxed/at ease factor is a very high contributor to our decision. We can walk to town, walk to the train, walk to tons of parks, go visit Thoreau in his grave (we have some nice chats “Our houses are such unwieldy property that we are often imprisoned rather than housed in them” Thoreau;1854), and if we need that baby item at 1 in the morning, it’s just down the road. Renting again just wasn’t for us. No life on hold argument, just not for us.
Downside to buying, taxes are horrible, but the upsides, at this time in our lives, win hands down. I also enjoy fixing stuff around the house-gets even my 2 year old involved and it becomes a how-things-work opportunity.
So, for us buying now was a good move, not a move others may take, but a good move for us. I couldn’t be happier with the decision.
And guess what- I’m the one that has to live with that decision.
Did honda pull out of f1 too?
Pricing Your Home in a Recovering Market
193#, the best articulated post on the argument of buying v.s. renting.
If anyone could please give me a history of this listing. I was under the impression it sold two months ago. Thanks in advance. MLS ID #5568822
#192 – Yup, last year. It is now Brawn F1. All things considered, Honda may have been the problem with that team.
Should be interesting to see if Mercedes can stay around. Renault too.
#193 NJkiwi no more
“the wife comfort/relaxed/at ease factor”
Then she’ll start complaining about the school district.
http://hoboken411.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/godfather-peter-cammarano-photoshop-parody-hoboken-nj.jpg
Public-private programs can solve foreclosure crisis
The number of New Jersey loans in foreclosure reached record numbers last year, and is expected to exceed 60,000 mortgage foreclosures in 2009.
As an example, a nonprofit would use government funds to purchase at a deep discount nonperforming mortgage notes; stop foreclosure; recycle newly unaffordable subprime mortgages into performing, profitable mortgage loans that will be sold to the secondary mortgage market; and create jobs for displaced real estate professionals to administer the statewide program and by hiring new businesses to implement recommended green initiatives to modernize modest-income homes. An FHA 203(k) property appraisal and inspection report would follow to confirm the home’s current fair market value, as the basis for a structured loan modification that makes sense for all stakeholders.
bokenguy
July 29th 2009 – 09:01:09 |
Don’t have photoshop, but I have a request. Malibu Pete. He’s not anatomically correct, but comes with shore house, envelopes with $5,000 in play money and an orange prison jump suit for anytime you want to play ‘prison’. Deal, NJ Dwek doll and Fed wire tap accessories sold separately.
Commercial foreclosure rate triples this year
Well, it is real estate related:
“The winner of one of Britain’s most coveted jobs says her new profession is abandoning the housing market to live in a cave. And she says it’s a step up.
Carole Bohanan, a real estate agent from Shepton Mallet, Somerset, will be the new Carla Calamity, the Witch of Wookey Hole, beating around 300 contestants for the job. The job pays £50,000 ($80,000) a year and requires her to live in the cave.
“I am on top of the moon. This is a natural step up from my current job. You need witchy skills to sell houses at the moment,” Bohanan told UK newspaper The Times. . . . .”
#193
“So, for us buying now was a good move, not a move others may take, but a good move for us. I couldn’t be happier with the decision.
And guess what- I’m the one that has to live with that decision.”
—
Sounds like it was a good move for you guys. And I’m happy to hear it.
That said, my biggest gripe about the housing bubble and the stupidity of people’s mistakes is that, sadly, we are ALL being stuck with the consequences of bagholders’ foolish decisions.
[199] PGC
If she is going to complain about the Concord school system, she has some serious issues.
In some cases, the seller is simply caught between the rock of a harsh economy and the hard space of having insufficient capital to service debt and properly market the property. On Aug. 5, one of the nation’s leading real estate auctioneers, Tranzon Integrated Property Group, will auction a 72-unit, 90,000-square-foot assisted-living center in Middlesex County, CT.
The property was delivered in early 2008 at a construction cost of $14.5 million. Tranzon will sell the center at a deep discount reserve price of $3.5 million. Tranzon Vice President and auctioneer Oren Klein said that a better-capitalized owner could have launched a proper marketing campaign to fill the facility, which suffers from low occupancy.
“The owner has unfortunately been unable to devote the appropriate resources towards attracting tenants,” Klein said.
“I don’t know if as much an increase in buyer interest as owners becoming more realistic about the market,” said Joshua Olshin, president of Tranzon, which has also completed a bankruptcy auction sale of nine assisted-living and skilled nursing facilities owned by Continuum Care Corp. “In ’08, nobody was willing to mark to market. Now, across the country, there’s been a lot more activity and realism.”
http://www.costar.com/News/Article.aspx?id=F9243DEB83153259F95525F184C9EEE8
Why SRS is in the toilet. Hope Ben has enough printing capacity when the REITs come begging.
“It’s hard for there to be a real shakeout,” he said. “You’ll see a lot of frozenness that will stay in place until it becomes clear that there isn’t going to be a bailout for institutions.”
#193 NJkiwi no more
May Prosperity and Joy come to your Home!!
Jim Rogers Is Not Shorting This Market
Wednesday, July 29, 2009 10:17 AM
By: Ellen Chang Article Font Size
Jim Rogers, the commodities guru, now says for one of a few times in his life he does not hold any large short positions.
In a Bloomberg TV interview, Rogers said he fails to see that there is anything “in great excess.”
Nor is Rogers a fan of shorting Treasury bonds because he believes that the Federal Reserve can steer the market for them currently.
http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk/jim_rogers_short/2009/07/29/241347.html
Qwerty says:
July 29, 2009 at 11:19 am
Chi, you may want to keep up to date on the “Protecting Tenants at Foreclosure Act of 2009″ which became law recently.
Q: guy’s fine…owns his own business; has a house in Cape May; wife is in finance; he knows he f’ked up, just doesn’t want to take a bath; he respects my decision to rent; I think he is actually more worried about me because of my line of work.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, in an amazing about-face, is now ready to admit before Congress that speculators — hedge funds, trading houses and individuals with no hard assets in the industry — played a huge role in oil’s meteoric run last summer to nearly $150 a barrel. And something needs to be done. See full story.
For the legions of conspiracy theorists out there, the spike smelled like collusion between regulators (the CFTC’s initial investigation found nothing beyond basic supply-demand market mechanics) and an industry that stood to rake in record profits.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-oils-stake-in-cftc-crackdown-2009-07-28
You paint us homeowners with quite a broad brush. My monthly mortage which includes taxes and insurance equals two days pay. Some of my friends it is one days pay. Yes people who bought after 1999 and put little down are slaves. But pre-2000 people often put a large downpayment and then refinanced. Bigger concerns are their 529 and 401K plans. Remember a large amount of homeowners have no mortage. My in-laws live in a little paid off cape with 4,800 in taxes. With insurance house costs $500 a month. Houses rent for 2K a month so not a bad deal. However the dope who bought that cape at peak is paying 4K a month for a house that rents for 2K that is nuts.
The good news is when the second one comes you will save a lot of money as you won’t have time to go out. Once you break two you can’t hand one off and have freedom. Three is where it gets dicey as they outnumber you and four and more is you against a mob.
EWellie says:
July 29, 2009 at 10:12 am
Sorry, John. I am a woman with a husband and a child. Plus, we have another on the way.
Yup they ain’t happy with us.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-07/29/content_8484008.htm
Puerto Rico Muni of the WEEK!!!
Chi-Fi I haven’t seen a triple tax free muni yielding over 7.6 since the early 90’s. KOO KOO
CUSIP 745220EP4
Quantity Available 125,000
Min Order Size 10,000
Order Multiple 5,000
Settlement Date 08/03/2009
Yield to Maturity 7.670 %
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32203855
Would anyone want to participate in this pump and dump? It could make for some nice short term gains.
John,
Does it include any shares in Doral Bank?
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=DRL#chart1:symbol=drl;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
[212],
GS. Nothing to see here.
GS will have record bonuses this year. What a surprise. I suppose they earned it!
Stu don’t know, doral actually had some really good gains in last few days though. My real dogs like Unisys, Ford and Genworth where I threw a hail mary pass and got in at the bottom have been rock stars. Maybe some Doral people timed it right. Who knows.
any insight on why microsoft/yahoo deal is bad for yahoo? cannot figure it out.
I remember back in 2007, Rogers was on TV saying he’s short All Home Builders, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and all investment banks. They were calling him crazy. I don’t even want to know how much money he made on those plays.
Thanks bi and yo’me. PGC, thankfully, the schools are awesome, and they had better be for the taxes. Maybe I won’t feel so bad about paying them when all 4 kids are in the system.
The insane behavior of many people chasing after a particular home, car, etc. because of how it reflects on them strikes me as a pathology of sorts, rooted in a lack of self worth. Who fricken cares if others are impressed by one’s car? Who fricken cares if others find one’s lack of a two-story grand foyer gauche?
I suspect that it all goes back to a perspective that the amount of money one earns reflects on their character and “worth” as a person. I know pleanty of people who are fare better people than I who earn less, and pleanty of dirtbags who earn more. So what if someone can afford a 250′ oceangoing yacht and I can’t? I say good for them, and I see no reason or me to try to chase their lifestyle. In the end, so many people got in over their heads doing just that. We would all be better off just living within our own means and not giving a frick whether someone else can afford more, bigger, fancier….
The statements about people “putting their lives on hoild” are just plays on the fear that one is being bypassed by others if they fail to buy. Better to be bypassed and financially secure than the “keep up” and be shackled by debt.
“Bank Earnings Reveal This Emperor Has No Clothes”
But while banks were busy taking whatever securities-related profits they could from their balance sheets, their core banking businesses were decidedly mixed. On the good-news front (unless, of course, you’re a saver), banks lowered deposit rates and raised transaction fees left and right.
At the same time, loan portfolios showed continued credit deterioration across the board. Worse, loan loss reserves appear to have been sized for an immediate recovery, rather than positioned for any kind of continuing economic malaise.
As I have written before, I don’t believe that accounting changes the ultimate outcome — just the timing. In the second quarter, as the tide back came in, banks accentuated the positive and postponed the negative.
Should a sustainable recovery occur, no one will likely ever know the difference. But realize: That’s the bet. And from where I stand, the bank “gain cupboard” is now officially bare.
Warren Buffett is reported to have said that, when the tide goes out, you can see who’s been swimming naked. I, for one, would beware the tides of March.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/C-jpm-MA-v-RF/index/a/23781
Ben,
Forget his investments. He sold his Manhattan home at the perfect time as well and it was a pretty sweet crib.
#221 – Its not bad for Yahoo, that doesn’t mean the company is worth anything though.
“I remember back in 2007, Rogers was on TV saying he’s short All Home Builders, ”
I remember back in 2007, Bi was on njrereport saying he’s long All Home Builders.
Shore you know what is weirder I have an aunt like that she snubs her noses at people who buy used cars. My one aunt bought a two year old Lexus and my aunt had a brand new leased one. The one with the new one snubbed the other aunt by saying it is just a used car. Lady, you don’t own a leased car, it makes no sense to brag you have a leased BMW or Mercedes anymore than it makes sense to rent a new ford mustand for the day and brag about your new car, in either case it is not yours.
BC Bob says:
July 28, 2009 at 4:56 pm
Clot [256],
Insiders selling at fastest clip since the fall of 07′
interested in this, BC Bob. care to expand? Are you hearing this? Has it been reported?
The median salary in Wyckoff is $136,000 per year. So, you should be able to buy a nice, modest home for $476,000, correct? Good luck. The proletarians mananaged to get themselves molested, baited, harassed, violated and abused by housing tour guides and their lending accomplices and they know it which is why you won’t see them post here in an attempt to defend themselves. You need to tack another 30% onto that 476K figure to find anything decent without having to do major work. That’s fine, if it takes 600K to 650K to find something deemed livable and comfortable, then that is acceptable. It should’ve been based on fundamentals and one should have been required to put 20% down and have the assets and income based on debt to income standards. If you don’t have it or can’t do it, then tough sh*t, you have to consider alternatives.
What’s not acceptable is watching salaries increase roughly 25% over the last 8 years while house prices increased 87%. The proletarians never saw the scam coming; it was executed flawlessly and they were assailed with reckless abandon. The realtors knew it, the appraisers knew it, the lenders orchestrated the sting and the sellers thought they were genuises.
Now, the realtors are desperate to revive the hoax, the lenders have packed up the shell game and the sellers are wondering why they aren’t loved any longer. If you’re going to make a bid, lowball. Take the 1998 sales, increase it 3.5% per year and that is your bid price. While the realtor is choking on his/her cup-a-soup, tell him/her that this is your best and final offer and you’ll give them a generous 48 hours to accept or else the offer goes bye-bye. You’re dictating the final sales price, not the other way around. Remember how Michael Corleone handled Moe Green in the Godfather II? You should handle in the same way.
228#, so what? i am bullish on srs now and bearish on every assets except dollar and treasury short term.
>I remember back in 2007, Bi was on njrereport saying he’s long All Home Builders.
“Insiders selling at fastest clip since the fall of 07′”
Yup, I’ve been seeing it as well with a lot of my holdings. Many of them haven’t even been participating in this latest rally.
“228#, so what? i am bullish on srs now and bearish on every assets except dollar and treasury short term.”
I just thought it was funny my friend.
234#, nothing funny about. 12% gain in equity market in 2 weeks is too good. you have to ride up and down.
Yikes 230],
Not sure if it was marketwatch or a headline on B-Berg? However, I saw it yesterday.
http://www.areuea.org/conferences/papers/download.phtml?id=2133
This is the study on equity str!pp!ng and underwater mortgages.
anyone see this yet?? good stuff!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeYscnFpEyA
gary why give the realtor the bid, just knock on door and give owner low ball directly, much more fun. Then hand him your card and say after listing expires and you are hard up and no longer have to pay 6% commission give me a call.
“Insiders selling at fastest clip since the fall of 07′”
It reminds me of articles about ships that started to sink and the crew took to the lifeboats, leaving the passengers behind. Costa, I believe was one of the lines where that happened.
Insider selling article 1:
http://marketoracle.co.uk/Article12284.html
Insider selling article 2:
http://www.forexhound.com/article/Blogs/Michael_J_Panzner/You_Would_Have_Thought/148850
OT Weather alert
Heavy T-storm line coming through area. Newark is dark as sackcloth and line presently around Brigadoon-Union area and advancing this way.
Expect to get it in Newark in 20 minutes; 30 for prestigious Montclair (any windows open at home, Stu?)
Make His a Bud Light: Obama Picks Best-Selling Beer (Update1)
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Hans Nichols and Nicholas Johnston
July 29 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama will have Bud Light tomorrow when he hosts an old friend and the police officer who arrested him.
We are being bombed here in Union. No hail yet, but awesome thunder and monsoon like rain show.
And like someone just turned off the light, the rain has stopped and it’s many angstrom’s brighter.
“Make His a Bud Light: Obama Picks Best-Selling Beer”
I still don’t see how getting the easily angered professor and the thin skinned cop all liquored up is going to solve anything. They’ll probably start slugging it out in the Rose Garden.
247. Thus proving Barack doesn’t know shit about beer either.
#221 bi,
dunno if the deal is bad for yhoo but im sure it wont do users any benefit;
search engines of microsoft & yahoo = crap
crap * crap = crap^2
Hehehe:
I am so disconnected from the MSM that someone in the conference room had to explain the whole story to me. I responded, “This is a non event, and I wished I hadn’t asked for the explanation.”
It’s hard to believe that the Pres of the US has taken this non-event to this extreme. Let a community activist solve this issue. OOPS.
Personally, I think this president acted stupidly. Unfortunately, there aren’t many members of the union of presidents to come to his defense.
Stu [252],
No argument here.
He’s got a Boston issue and goes with a St. Louis / InBev brew… Sam Adams would have been a lay-up, may have gained him some favor up there.
Oh well.
221- I think there were always people that thought that MSFT would end up buying Yahoo and held it for that reason.
Is Michael Jackson dead yet?
Absolute proof that the market has topped.
Campbell’s Soup has been upgraded by RBC.
Doyle [254],
Chalk it up to inexperience.
BC,
Political or Drinking?
Doyle [259],
Both.
I enjoyed living in an apartment when my son was born. I was recently married and my friends all lived in the area. That first baby is very much like an accessory so you can take him anywhere for the first six months. Apartments are convenient and that’s nice when one has a little baby.
We moved into our house nine years ago. A major portion of my comp plan is in a lump sum distribution so we paid off our house three years ago. My wife is happy so I’m happy, that’s what it’s all about. Even if the markets would have taken off I know that I made the right decision for us.
Funny thing is that nobody knows that we have no mortgage and we would just look at each other when people asked us about our payment amount. The good thing is that nobody asks anymore because talking about RE losses is taboo at GTGs.
I want to have three huge trees taken down because they are right next to the house. Two oak trees and one Maple, that are about 60 feet high. Our yard is a soupy mess all of the time because we never get any sunlight.
Is this a 2k job? 5k?, 10k?
d2b,
If you get Montclair pricing, your are easily looking at the top of that range (which IMO is complete BS). Neighbor of mine had a 60 footer removed and it was 5K.
d2b says:
Is this a 2k job? 5k?, 10k?
Depends on how many people you want working on your property that are in this country legally
d2b,
Sounds like a do it yourself GTG/Sunday project.
Kidding.
d2b,
It really depends on many factors. Are they near a power line or your home? Are they accessible by climbers or is a crane necessary. Also, you can save a lot by doing the cleanup yourself and/or freecycling the firewood, but you would need a chainsaw an axe and a splitter. Make sure the bidder you chose has insurance. You might find a price to be to good to be true until the trees are felled into your car.
“Forget his investments. He sold his Manhattan home at the perfect time as well and it was a pretty sweet crib.”
Stu, I’m just wondering why all those CNBC analyst have always been hell bent on disagreeing with him. Does he need to make a few billion more before they entertain the fact that he might know what he’s talking about?
I would say three mexicans at 300 for he day plus a chain saw and dumpster rental and three burrito supremes.
d2b says:
July 29, 2009 at 3:16 pm
I want to have three huge trees taken down because they are right next to the house. Two oak trees and one Maple, that are about 60 feet high. Our yard is a soupy mess all of the time because we never get any sunlight.
Is this a 2k job? 5k?, 10k?
“Stu, I’m just wondering why all those CNBC analyst have always been hell bent on disagreeing with him.”
Apparently, the only thing that a CNBC reporter is allowed to agree with is a bull market rally in our domestic markets. Everything else is just plain wrong.
d2b
You are looking around 5K. Although I had an oak with a 5ft trunk that cost $3.5 on its own. It is not something you can tackle yourself unless you are looking at a Darwin award.
Tree cutting is something you do not want to leave to undocumented untrained amateurs. They tend to be heavy objects with the potential to fall into your home.
Ive actually accounted for tree removal when making offers on houses. Realtor would look at me like I was crazy. It ain’t a weed, lady.
plus there’s an obvious reason the owners have let that shiteous cyprus to obscure 70% of the house from the curb. 5k out of pocket.
[272] barbara
I have done the same. And I have 5 large, old oaks in my yard that bother me somewhat.
Very glad that they are in the back half of the yard, away from the house.
I had a 40 foot pine removed from my house for 300 bucks, old guy in beat up truck pulled up and had a skinny guy with a chain saw jump from my roof and take it down a branch at a time in around 20 minutes, threw stuff into truck and left trunk and sawdust all over place. Did my friends two 60 foot oaks form $500, guys actually straddle brances and cut between his legs and jumped back before branch fell. I thought he was going to die, then again a tree cutting service named cheap tree cutting with no office or insurance better be cheap.
A colleague’s parents in nearby Somerset County asked a tree co. for an estimate to prune a number of trees near the house. Est. was 9K and the parents balked. But one of them approached a worker who came along and asked him to do it on the side. He did, for 1K.
Apparently Tree removal prices vary greatly according to the region of the country you are in. Since this is the “Soprano” region it cost about 5 times as much.
http://www.costhelper.com/cost/home-garden/tree-removal.html
#273 Barbara.
In 2005 I tried to buy a multi family in Rutherford. We never made it out of Attorney review as they wouldn’t pay to get the disused oil tank out of the driveway before closing. They wanted to give us a credit for us to do it ourselves. We walked.
It sat on the market and they cut, slowly and it finally sold this May for $110K under my offer.
This one is making the rounds today, I thought I’d share;
$120k in loan debt, is that degree worth it? Obvs. she’s a bit of an extreme example, but the issue has been discussed here before.
#279 – Actually that article is more about the stupidity of one borrower than the cost of higher ed. Worth the read though, it’s chock full of schadenfreude.
I would say three mexicans at 300 for he day plus a chain saw and dumpster rental and three burrito supremes.
John,
I love it. I operate the same all over NYC boroughs. Instead of Burritto’s I get Pizza and a corona. You’d be suprised at productivity when you tell them that as soon as they finish you gonna get them cold cervesas.
2/3 so called contractors operate the same way.
278. PGC
I love hearing about buys like that, gives me hope. I haven’t bought a multi since 1999 and want to get back in.
All I see is a young girl knocked up by a dead beat dad. The babies father should be supporting this women not her grandma and uncle sam.
toshiro_mifune says:
July 29, 2009 at 3:57 pm
This one is making the rounds today, I thought I’d share;
$120k in loan debt, is that degree worth it? Obvs. she’s a bit of an extreme example, but the issue has been discussed here before.
I rent to college students and its pretty routine to see them pay for the flat screens with student loan money.
Another 10% max decline around here to go…
From the July Fed Beige Book:
Contacts in northern New Jersey indicate that the market has a somewhat more positive tone than in recent months: prices, though still down about 15 percent over the year, appear to have stabilized somewhat and volume has picked up moderately.
Nice comeback in the market again today. A rising market is an easy way to reflate household balance sheets. Cheaper than bailouts or stimulus. All those families with 401k’s down 40% or so five months ago will feel just a little wealthier. This stock market game is mechanism to influence sentiment – I think the Fed pays close attention and has maximum “input” in the tale of the tape.
#283 – Read a little deeper in John.
FTFA
It’s not all due to a missing babydaddy.
I’d ask someone to Snopes this, but why ruin my fantasy of believing that all these responses are really true:
The following are all replies that Detroit women have written on Child Support Agency Forms in the section for listing ‘Father’s Details,’ or putting it another way…. Who’s your Daddy? These are genuine excerpts from the forms. Be sure to check out #11, it takes 1st prize and #3 is runner up:
1. Regarding the identity of the father of my twins, Makeeshia was fathered by Maclearndon McKinley I am unsure as to the identity of the father of Marlinda, but I believe that she was conceived on the same night.
2. I am unsure, as to the identity of the father of my child as I was being sick out of a window when taken unexpectedly from behind. I can provide you with a list of names of men that I think were at the party if this helps.
3. I do not know the name of the father of my little girl. She was conceived at a party at 3600 East Grand Boulevard where I had sex with a man I met that night. I do remember that the sex was so good that I fainted. If you do manage to track down the father, can you please send me his phone number? Thanks…
4. I don’t know the identity of the father of my daughter. He drives a BMW that now has a hole made by my stiletto in one of the door panels. Perhaps you can contact BMW service stations in this area and see if he’s had it replaced.
5. I have never had sex with a man. I am still a Virginian. I am awaiting a letter from the Pope confirming that my son’s conception was ej@culate and that he is the Saver risen again.
6. I cannot tell you the name of Alleshia’s dad as he informs me that to do so would blow his cover and that would have cataclysmic implications for the economy. I am torn between doing right by you and right by the country. Please advise.
7. I do not know who the father of my child was as they all look the same to me.
8. Tyrone Hairston is the father of child A. If you do catch up with him, can you axe him what he did with my AC/DC CDs? Child B who was also borned at the same time….. well, I don’t have clue.
9. From the dates it seems that my daughter was conceived at Disney World. Maybe it really is the Magic Kingdom.
10. So much about that night is a blur. The only thing that I remember for sure is Delia Smith did a program about eggs earlier in the evening. If I had stayed in and watched more TV rather than going to the party at 8956 Miller Ave, mine might have remained unfertilized.
11. I am unsure as to the identity of the father of my baby, after all, like when you eat a can of beans you can’t be sure which one made you fart.
“Apparently, the only thing that a CNBC reporter is allowed to agree with is a bull market rally in our domestic markets. Everything else is just plain wrong.”
Yeah well, every time he tells them something like oil or gold will rally, they call him a pessimist. They only want people to buy the Dow or the S&P.
re#279 – $150-a-month cell phone plan and a $120 a month for cable? WTF?
John does has a point too, where is the child support payments?
#290 – Sean – John does has a point too, where is the child support payments?
He does, but if the father is another student, with no income, how much are the payments?
Honestly, I have no idea how that would work.
Cram-downs let federal judges lengthen terms, cut interest rates and reduce mortgage balances of bankrupt homeowners, even if the lender objects. Congress gave the mortgage industry every legislative tool they requested to allow them to more easily modify loans for those facing foreclosure, and the results have been below expectations, Frank said in a statement today
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aciBTL4tY4lg
“Cram-downs let federal judges lengthen terms, cut interest rates and reduce mortgage balances of bankrupt homeowners, even if the lender objects.”
Federal judges? Kiss this market goodbye. Not only will investment capital flee this industry, it will flee the country. Going forward, watch the TIC Data. In addition to this, keep track of how much your dollar buys. Then, bend over and kiss your ass goodbye.
July 29 (Bloomberg) — PATH train service between the World Trade Center station in Manhattan and Newark, New Jersey, was halted as of about 4 p.m. local time because of signal problems, the Port Authority of New York & New Jersey said in an e-mailed statement.
The authority didn’t say when service was expected to resume. More than 240,000 riders take the PATH, or Port Authority Trans-Hudson, service daily.
July 29 (Bloomberg) — PATH train service between the World Trade Center station in Manhattan and Newark, New Jersey, was halted as of about 4 p.m. local time because of signal problems, the Port Authority of New York & New Jersey said in an e-mailed statement.
The authority didn’t say when service was expected to resume. More than 240,000 riders take the PATH, or Port Authority Trans-Hudson, service daily.
Girls are stupid, reminds of the story of the young girl who went to doctor as she was worried she was pregant and when the doctor explained the baby comes out the same hole as where she did it with the boy she started crying and when the doctor asked why she responded she was scared that the baby would kick her teeth out when it was born.
#284 – Barbara – I can remember stories about people who did things like that when I was in school, but I never new anyone who actually did it. I always figured they were somewhat mythical.
Although, I did know someone who took money for tuition from his parents and used it to score heroin and weed… I’ll never understand why they gave him the cash in the first place as that wasn’t the first time he pulled such wacky hi-jinks.
New thread! Up!
#288 clot,
2 funny
After watching maury povich’s are you the baby’s father a few times I would not be surprised if those comments are true.
John says:
July 29, 2009 at 1:04 pm
Puerto Rico Muni of the WEEK!!!
Chi-Fi I haven’t seen a triple tax free muni yielding over 7.6 since the early 90’s. KOO KOO
CUSIP 745220EP4
Quantity Available 125,000
Min Order Size 10,000
Order Multiple 5,000
Settlement Date 08/03/2009
Yield to Maturity 7.670 %
JJ: I will make you a bet that it was called….what is YTW tough guy?
JJ: Also most of the PR Commonwealth is backstopped by AMBAC which just Chap 11’ed today so people are barfing up sh!t left and right…
“Once you break two you can’t hand one off and have freedom. Three is where it gets dicey…”
Wife and I stopped at two. We looked at kids like basketball. We can always defend a two-on-two but in a three-on-two they most likely get the better of you.