From the NYT the local Blog:
An Appeal for a Better Real Estate Tax System
Property taxes in New Jersey are the highest in the nation by percent of a homeowner’s income and by just about any other measure.
In my 23 years of living in two different houses in South Orange, I have lodged a total of five tax appeals. I succeeded in the first four and believe I will succeed in the fifth, which I just argued on
July 14 in East Orange at the Essex County Board of Taxation [.pdf].In essence, if I prove that my house is grossly overvalued compared to comparable sales before October 1, 2008, then I will save a hefty amount on the taxes I pay for tax year 2009.
The very fact that I have had meritorious grounds to file five appeals tells me that the tax system is not really “fair “ and “equalized,” even though government officials and appraisal company representatives might intend it to be.
I have seen entire blocks that were under-assessed. I have also seen houses that were over-assessed, where year after year the government collected substantially more revenue than it would have received had the homeowner challenged the assessment.
As a self-taught participant in the tax appeal system I have learned that the bigger question underlying this system is: Is this the fairest and best way to raise money for our state and local governments? This political hot potato has been tossed back and forth in New Jersey without resolution.
From the APP:
N.J. found starved of mass transit
New Jersey’s suburban counties, which had the biggest population and job growth, lack the mass transit to move those people even though the miles traveled by people on transit statewide doubled compared with miles traveled by car in a 10-year-period starting in 1997, a transit advocacy group found.
The “State of Transportation — 2009” report released Wednesday by the Tri-State Transportation Campaign found that “some of the counties experiencing the fastest population and employment growth in the state, such as Somerset, Ocean and Warren, have the least transit service.”
The report — which analyzed data from numerous sources, including the state — said the findings make the case for officials to find new revenue sources for the state Transportation Trust Fund, which could run out cash to do any projects in 2010.
First!
toid!
http://www.yumasun.com/news/property-51909-letters-yuma.html
Beware – Tax assessment fraud in Arizona – Your property qualifies for a tax reduction review…..just pay us $189.00….
First of all, the service is free and secondly, it had to be done months ago…
The CA DA is filing charges because the letters are coming out of CA – of course someone here figured out how to cheat unsuspecting people out of money when they were down…geez.
The Ocean County transportation system is a mess. Only two towns have train service and connecting to any other line takes serious travel. Getting from Point A to Point B via roads, there is only one large road — the Parkway — the other “big” roads — US 9, and State Rts. 88, 35, 37 (and what is the one going into LBI 66 maybe?) are overstressed with volume, chopped up with traffic lights to the point of making anything other than way off-hour travel a disaster. There are a few other “major” streets, ala Fisher Blvd and Hooper ave. in TR, and Brick Blvd. in Brick (which are worse than the highways) and a handful of “5” roads. (which, once one gets to them are pretty good) but the whole county, it seems, is always looking for some back way to shave 5 minutes from the trip because of conjestion.
Ocean County neverexpanded itss road network when it had the chance in the late 60s because (as the officials stated) if we do “the people from up North will move here.” Well, they did anyway and the lack of forethought haunts the county to this day.
A few extra bus lines will likely do little to ease theburden but, like chicken soup, it couldn’t hurt.
Cindy,
Isn’t that the best time, I mean from the perspective of a lowlife who would be inclined to do such a thing?
Shore – 72 is what you take to get to LBI.
Thanks Gator. I hardly ever drive to LBI anymore. When I first got my license many moons ago, I used to go down a couple times a week, there was just something about the causeway bridge.
#6 Shore – I just hate that CA comes up with such crap. You know, kicking a guy when he’s down.
Shore – Did you read my post a while back about the est. taxes for next year?
Turns out, the way CA is making up the $1.7B shortfall is to accelerate the state taxes so they have the funds pre -7-1-10.
10% more will be taken out of my paycheck for state taxes come Nov. or so. You will be asked to pay Q1 40% and Q2 30% in est. taxes. Smoke and mirrors.
Doh! 66, I need more coffee, since I was on it all of an hour ago and it is not any closer to LBI than is Kingsley or Bangs in AP.
Sean from 10:00pm yesterday:
>> comps are in the toilet in Millburn but hey lets believe
>> those Wall St jobs will be coming back and we can all take
>> loans on our stock options to buy a house.
>> That whole town is fu(K)ed.
You mean the Wall St. jobs that are paying out the largest bonuses this year on record?
You mean the GS employees who are being asked to not spend it all in one place so as to avoid conspicuous consumption while the little folks who used to build RVs in Indiana can’t find a job and have no health benefits?
I really don’t care too much if homeowners in Millburn listed their house for $3 million and only could get $2 million for it at the close. My point here is NOT that Millburn pricing is at 20% over peak (it is NOT), its that its peaks were higher and so even moving off those peaks, the prices for Millburn are still in the stratosphere.
There are lots of people buying in Millburn. Some of those people could live in a 3000 sqft home if they lived elsewhere but instead are willing to squeeze into 1600 sqft with their 4 kids in tow so they can send them to school there. Individual choice. Long live America. Others are buying in because they still have their jobs, still are making money (more than they did last year) and have no issue paying twice the price for an old colonial that would cost significantly less in other towns.
I don’t hate these people. I am just not one of them. The fact is in Millburn, the same number of homes sold in June 2009 as sold in June 2008. The avg sale price in June 2008 was $1.0 million. The avg sale price in June 2009 was $1.18 mil. There may have been more actives and they may have sat on the market for more days before selling but the price is up on average. Liars figure and figures lie. Fine. But the stat is what it is. Millburn is crazy lunatic expensive.
What is YOUR point Sean? Do you have one?
Cindy,
Thanks for the bad news. Since we pay a fair percentage of our taxes to the fine people at the Franchise Tax Board, I guess that means we are in the same boat as you, except we will be cutting estimated tax checques instead of it being payroll deduction. Same result in the end.
https://www.hrtools.com/news/alerts/california_governor_signs_budget_trailer_bills_including_revenue_acceleration_provisions.aspx
Shore @12
Here is the lowdown: Budget Trailer Bills – Revenue Acceleration Provisions
Just for fun, if AIG, fannie, freddie, CIT and even Radian can pop big yesterday I bet we will close the week out with two big pops from MBIA and AMBAC. Dr. Frankenstein is in the Whitehouse and he is raising the dead, lets bring some more zombies back to life!!!
The Obama administration is considering an overhaul of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that would strip the mortgage finance giants of hundreds of billions of dollars in troubled loans and create a new structure to support the home-loan market, government officials said.
The bad debts the firms own would be placed in new government-backed financial institutions — so-called bad banks — that would take responsibility for collecting as much of the outstanding balance as possible. What would be left would be two healthy financial companies with a clean slate.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32309615/ns/business-washington_post/
Thursday Outlook: Goldman to the Rescue
“Today’s disappointing employment report from ADP was the dose of cold water an overbought market needed to sell-off. But then the cavalry came to the rescue at just the right moment with Goldman’s call upgrading economic growth estimates. The effect was a ragged rally reducing more selling. There’s a concerted effort in officialdom and with their Wall Street brethren to lift markets they’ll use whatever new rules and tools are needed to get things going. Making you feel good makes them money and reelects incumbents. With regard to the former is this eyebrow raising Bloomberg story about how GS is making $100M per day trading. Yep, they’re trading free money from you and me with their High Frequency Trading systems (HAL 9000s).
If you don’t think companies like this aren’t front-running their recommendations, you’re living in dreamland. But we’re just pawns in the game. You either play with them or leave the casino.”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/151703-thursday-outlook-goldman-to-the-rescue
so-called bad banks — that would take responsibility for collecting as much of the outstanding balance as possible. What would be left would be two healthy financial companies with a clean slate
Does this mean,walking away with bad debth,the collectors will still haunt you.
“but he called $40 crude at the $150 peak.”
SAS,
You’re wrong. Bi called $40 crude when it was trading at $68. Subsequently, it blew the door off its hinges, up to $147. Now, if Bi actually had the balls to put the trade on, he would have been buried. Eventually, most are right- even Bi- regarding their market calls. It doesn’t mean sh*t unless you have skin in the game. Oh, one other item that carries some importance, TIMING.
If gold goes up to $1,300 will Bi be right regarding his $650 gold call, made when gold was at $850? I would imagine anyone who would make these calls would also carry the same position. I’m sure Bi is short gold at $850, right? After all, the moderator requested that if one wanted to make market calls, they would also disclose their position.
Did you see Bi’s head and shoulders interpretation, gold chart? Good call, if you turn the chart upside dowm. He must be receiving lessons from BIA.
“Dr. Frankenstein is in the Whitehouse and he is raising the dead, lets bring some more zombies back to life!!!”
J,
Can Frankenstein work his magic regarding employment and wages?
Cindy,
Thanks. I am going to enjoy a little nap on the porch swing on a rainy morning before slapping myself in the face with the details of how we get to pay even more taxes this autumn.
After reading that article I think I will ned to stroll up to the beach for a “sandpiper fix.”
Gator/Stu,
How did your appeal go this year?
At what point does the realization hit that there will be no recovery and the economy is even worse than it is being spun. You have a government that continues to produce statistics that are bad and that are later revised to being terrible. The media/wall street then run with the bad data claiming it’s not terrible when in fact it is terrible but the government hasn’t been honest. The stock market is then pushed up on the basis of the government lie. At some point the recognition has to set in that there’s no recovery. When will that be? What needs to happen?
Seneca – lol! take it easy already. All I said was the comps were in the toilet which they are.
As far as 2009 paid out bonuses go another fraud is all that is, a fraudulent conveyance and if you haven’t been paying attention did you read the Andrew Cuomo’s Report?
Take a gander at this chart.
http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/files/2009/07/picture-1.png
2010 Bonus money is going to be an interesting subject especially if the market tanks again and they banks go back looking for more TARP money to cover their losses.
SRS will hit $10 today. I am in heaven.
HeHe,
I suspect the M.O. is to hide the true state of things and to keep doing so in the hope that by the time “the people” find out how bad things are they will already be getting better, thus tempering the desire to break out flaming torches and pitchforks.
Frank – the broken record how about giving us a pick for next week?
Frank [24],
Yawn.
Shore,
I agree that’s the game plan but absent some sort unexpected innovation (i.e. internal combustion engine, internet etc) that’s a whole lot of lying and a whole lot of manipulation over a long period of time.
Shore 21 – We haven’t been heard yet. We adjourned back in June because our appraiser was out of town. The tax board says that Montclair’s “mop up” date will be sometime in September.
We have a friend that was heard yesterday, and another friend that will be heard next week. They are part of my merry band of tax revolters. One of them purchased last year for over $62k below their assessment so they should do well. Our friend that was heard yesterday described the commissioner as “tough, but fair” and the town’s representatives as a pair of “d*cky nerds” who tried to discount one of their comps on Upper Mountain Avenue (one of the premiere streets in town) as not credible because of traffic (said friend’s home is at one of the worst intersections in town for traffic problems – the town recently had to install a traffic light because of the amount of accidents at their location).
In other news, a single family home on our block was just listed for over $175k below assessment and over $100k below our current assessment. The market in Montclair sure is “holding up”, right? We might take a look at it, because it would be an ideal location to enable Stu to maintain the current home as a rental property.
What can long starving positive psychological effect can do to people?
There is water,water,water…Then he gets shot in the back.
And having the landlord up the street would help prevent anything too wild from going on too. Can one see the first house from the second?
“Of the 110m households in the US, c 75.5m are homeowners. Of those, c68% or 51.6m have a mortgage. DB estimates that as of the end of 1Q 14m US homeowners had negative equity or c 27% of all homewoners with mortgages. Applying our most recent Metropolitan Statistically Areas (MSA) level home price projections we estimate 25m homeowners will have negative equity before home prices stabilize or 48% of all mortgages.
Estimates % of borrowers w/negative equity by products
1Q09 1Q2011est
Conforming 16% 41%
Prime jumbo 29% 46%
Alt A 49% 66%
Subprime 50% 69%
Option ARM 77% 89%
Total
Mtgage Mkt 26% 48%
While subprime and Option ARMs are currently the worst cohorts w underwater borrowers, we project the next phase of the housing decline will have a far greater impact on prime borrowers (conforming and jumbo). The impact of this is important given that these markets have the largest share of the total mortgage market outstanding. Negative equity is a pb in many areas of CA, FL, AZ and NV and in many areas of OH, MI, IL, WI, MA and WV. NJ and the NY metropolitan area have relatively few underwater borrowers and yet we believe these markets are further from the bottom than much of CA. Consequently, as depicted on our map, the following areas in NY and NJ are projected to have over 50% of homeowners underwater by the end of the 1Q2011: NY-White Plains, Nassau-Suffolk and Edison-New Brunswick.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090805/bs_nm/us_usa_housing_deutschebank
#26,
How about AIG, C and BAC?? I am buying them today.
i don’t like this market any more! it’s up, up and up every day. srs under $12 pre-market. totally insane. look! sanity check will kick sooner or later as long as you are still in the game
U.S. Considers Remaking Mortgage Giants
‘Bad Bank’ Would Wipe the Slate Clean for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac by Taking Their Toxic Loans
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/05/AR2009080504063.html?hpid=topnews
Gator, I won my appeal but i got an estimated tax for third quarter for there is no agreed ratables yet.How many quarters do i get reimbursement from the diff? thanks
Somebody on another blog, I think it was Ritholtz, pointed out that consumer sentiment was down even with the stock market rising and which is troubling because a rising stock market is typically extremely positive for sentiment.
So if that isn’t getting the bang for the buck what do they move onto in a macro sense to get people’s minds off their economic problems. Typically sheeple need to believe they are going to get rich doing something or have some type of distraction to keep them content.
The only thing I can think of is a war.
“i don’t like this market any more! it’s up, up and up every day.”
bi,
Nobody cares what you like/dislike. If your blackbox doesn’t confirm, don’t tell us, call your damn broker and get short.
Consumer sentiment? What difference does it make if the same people who HELOCed themselves, who are deep in debt, and whose incomes are shrinking feel good about the economy? Either they have ready cash to spend or thry don’t. If they don’t, their rosey feelings about the economy’s outlook are of little moment.
NEW YORK – Shrinking business activity, fewer new orders and lower employment sapped some modest momentum from the U.S. services sector in July, although economists said the setback likely was a blip and not the start of a troubling trend.
The Institute for Supply Management on Wednesday said its services index clocked in at 46.4, down from 47 in June. It’s the 10th straight month of decline as any reading below 50 indicates the sector is shrinking.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32295819/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/
36 Yome – They will likely settle up with you in the 4th quarter, after the final tax rate is set. You will be credited for the whole year. We were given our overpayment for the 1st 3 quarters as a credit towards our 4th quarter payment.
http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/08/04/all-great-things-have-to-end/
BC – Do you remember saying something like “TIC data indicates capital continues to trickle out of the U.S.” about a week ago or so?
Well, checking into that statement, I read several Brad Setser articles at his blog. When I went there this AM I read “All Great Things Have to End.” He took a government job.
Gator,thank you
31 Shore – Unfortunately not. It’s probably a good 5 or so houses up the street.
23.Sean says:
August 6, 2009 at 8:47 am
As far as 2009 paid out bonuses go another fraud is all that is, a fraudulent conveyance and if you haven’t been paying attention did you read the Andrew Cuomo’s Report?
Sean: GS is kicking the doors down, because the only other people who can play in the game are Morgan Stanley, and they were too busy changing their soiled underwear. As a result, GS had free reign to rape and pillage. No biggie. Illegal? No. If you need a primer, here….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7upG01-XWbY
Bank of England to Pump Extra $84 Billion Into Economy as Rate Maintained
Is the US next Stimulus coming?
Chi – talking about the money paid out not what is in the bonus pool for 2010, I am aware of what GS is upto and how the Fed gave them a free pass. Don’t think the game being played isn”t being watched by law enforcement.
U.S. Stock Futures Rise on Bank of England Bond Purchases; Citigroup Gains
•Morgan Stanley Will Buy Back Warrants From U.S. Treasury for $950 Million
•Petrobras Fraud Inquiry Starts as Gabrielli Struggles With `Big Crisis’
•Republican Opposition to Sotomayor Widens Partisan Gulf Over Supreme Court
•Senate Leaders Seek to Pass `Cash for Clunkers’ Bill Today Without Changes
Let’s keep the good news rolling
Gator (44):
“It’s probably a good 5 or so houses up the street.”
Still a lot better than half a town away. I won’t have to lug the mower and snow blower into the truck every week and if they are raucous enough, I’m sure the neighbors will walk on over to let us know.
Of course, all this is very preliminary as we have not seen the inside of the house yet. Plus the condition of the garage doors and porch leave me a bit scared of what the inside looks like.
Frank I like all three, but remember AIG is the ultimate stock to RENT< Put the stop loss orders in as soon as you buy it and keep raising them with the stock, good news mixed with short covering may make it pop a lot more than it deserves. Buying AIG is like being a virgin on her honeymoon, it may work out great but if it doesn’t you better make sure your are properly lubed so the screwing don’t hurt so bad, in AIGs case a good stop loss order is more usefull that a case of KY your first night in prision.
Frank says:
August 6, 2009 at 8:58 am
#26,
How about AIG, C and BAC?? I am buying them today.
Sean just apply for a job at GS, my brother-in-law is interviewing there. Easier to be part of the big bonus team than just sit around complaining.
Sean says:
August 6, 2009 at 9:23 am
Chi – talking about the money paid out not what is in the bonus pool for 2010, I am aware of what GS is upto and how the Fed gave them a free pass. Don’t think the game being played isn”t being watched by law enforcement.
Sean: I am with you on Millburn. I think the reasonable response to Seneca is the pant-up, and also, while there are plenty of people that are just fine and others on the Street that are doing well, there just aren’t that many of them, certainly not enough to keep things going strong in perpetuity. I honestly believe that those buying in Millburn are going to be bagholders.
The most important issue is the one pol clot raised several months ago about the cascading markets going west to east across NJ. Out by him, people are getting murdered, and it will slowly build east. Again 2009 Millburn buyers will be 2012’s bagholders.
To quote Ivan Drago “I will break you.”
Frugal first-time buyers are driving the new-home market with purchases of low-priced houses with no frills. Sales of new homes costing less than $200,000 jumped to 47 percent of all transactions in June, up from 39 percent in May, U.S. Commerce Department data show. Homes under $200,000 accounted for almost half of the sales in the first six months of this year, the biggest share for a first half in five years.
Housing starts rose to a seven-month high in June and sales of new houses gained in each of the last four months, including the 11 percent increase in June that was the biggest in eight years. Spending on residential construction fell to a 13-year low of $252.1 billion in May, the Commerce Department said this week.
The average size of new homes is down to 2,065 square feet, the smallest since 2000, and the median price this year has yet to rise above 2004 levels, according to the Census Bureau. June’s median of $206,200 was 12 percent below a year earlier.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=akCaYx29BrI8
Buying AIG is like being a virgin on her honeymoon, it may work out great but if it doesn’t you better make sure your are properly lubed so the screwing don’t hurt so bad, in AIGs case a good stop loss order is more usefull that a case of KY your first night in prision.
HERE COMES JOHNNY!!!!
“There’s a concerted effort to lift markets they’ll use whatever new rules and tools are needed to get things going… The stock market is then pushed up on the basis of the government lie.”
He, im getting the same impression and its becoming so obvious now. Maybe tarp is slowly seeping into the system and its just not visible to the consumer yet but i doubt it.
Im really impressed at the fed’s power going way beyond a set of confined rules. Media, Banks and actors all pulling strings, working together to stage a recovery.
They can bring a dead mule back to life if they want. I wouldnt be surprised if they pull off another bubble booming economy for the next 10-15 years. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the whole thing fails flat and collapses. Im ready for anything.
Blankfein has a story about the cataclysm that nearly brought down all of Wall Street. It goes something like this: One by one, lesser banks were swept away by the financial storm of 2008. And as the floodwaters rose, no one, not even Goldman Sachs, seemed safe.
The question, in Mr. Blankfein’s eyes, was how high the water would rise. But Washington stepped in with all those bailouts before the surge reached Goldman.
The story, which was recounted by several friends and colleagues, represents a sobering private admission from Mr. Blankfein, Goldman’s chief executive.
Publicly, it is a different story. Now that Goldman is minting money again, the bank insists that it was never in any real danger. Mr. Blankfein, in an e-mail message this week, disputed his private account, saying Goldman’s survival was never in doubt. Other Goldman executives reject the notion that the bank was rescued at all.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/06/business/06goldman.html?_r=2&partner=rss&emc=rss
Veto, whose the leader of the band that’s made for you and me. BAR-ACK MOUSE!!!!
Veto you want what you want, that is your problem. The trend is your friend. The only people who are making money in this market are those who rode it down and now are riding it up. Those who stayed short lost their earnings on the way up and those who stayed long are lucky to break even when this whole bull run is over.
Sometimes my friend you have to go bareback and ride it to you are raw.
veto if you took my mbi/abk advice one hour ago you would be up 25%. This market is reaching mania, anyone want to buy tulips?
John [57],
I agree, a trader’s market.
chifi said:
>>2009 Millburn buyers will be 2012’s bagholders.
I agree.
I guess my post in the last thread was meant to be taken very literally.
FACT: Sue Adler is killin it. You can argue with me six ways from Sunday but it doesn’t change what is happening right now.
FACT: Millburn is insane. People are paying big buck for houses that suck. (…and even bigger buck for nice homes.)
FACT: I can’t compete. I don’t want to. I don’t work for Goldman. I love the downtown and the midtown direct train. But guess what, I can’t have it and by the time 2012 rolls around, I will have bought a place elsewhere.
You guys clearly are not lawyers.
I wouldn’t worry too much about bank bonus uproar next year. I have a hunch they’re going to lower the bonus amounts and raise the base salaries to quell that commentary. Take a guess how I came up with that theory.
Veto, I wouldnt be surprised if they pull off another bubble booming economy for the next 10-15 years
China is doing that right now.Analyst can only speculate the outcome.If the US got away with it for so long,why can’t they.Will the US try it again?I think so.Remember when economy is good revenue is good.Japan has 200% debt to GDP,China has 75% US has 25%.
Gold Will Perform Well No Matter What Happens
http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/beat_the_press_archive?month=08&year=2009&base_name=goldmans_28_billion_guarantee
Dean Baker on Goldman
“At the time that Glass-Steagall was repealed in 1999, there was a commitment to maintain a separation between investment banking and commercial banking so that investment banks could not gamble with government insured deposits. The Federal Reserve Board and other regulators have allowed Goldman to completely ignore this separation as they quite openly speculate with money lent to them by the government.”
John,
I’m not arguing against the trend, it’s obviously in place. I’m just saying when the trend get’s so far out of whack from the reality and reality finally sets in then you are setting yourself up for a collapse. Whether it’s 3 mos, 6 mos, a year down the road it’s sitting there waiting. You can certainly make money in the interim.
“Mr. Blankfein, in an e-mail message this week, disputed his private account, saying Goldman’s survival was never in doubt.”
Without TLGP they would have collapsed. They were no different than Bear or Lehman. That said, there is one main difference; they are Government Sachs.
Coming soon to the UK: negative interest rates?
“I’m not arguing against the trend, it’s obviously in place.”
he,
Bull cycle within a secular bear. Hopefully, the market can retrace 1/2-2/3. Then the fun begins, at least for me.
John, Chi, BC:
“Trader’s market”
Indeed it is. I am in two investment clubs currently. One was beating the markets over the last two years until about a month ago. Our tried and true staples are not participating in this so-called recovery. I just ran a report and since the first of January, we are up 13.6% as the Vanguard TSMI is up 25%. In the last month, with nothing changed except for one particularly well performing purchase (amounts to about 6% of our portfolio), we have dropped over 11% behind the overall stock market. Our railway is dead, Stryker is dead, PG is dead. Of course our Apple, DeVry, Global Payments, Chipotle are on fire. Now with consumer discretionary dead in the water and showing no sign of recovery (costco ss sales were down another 7% this morning), the only explanation I can think is that stocks recover ahead of the real recovery. Unfortunately, I don’t see any impetus for a real recovery in anything except the gamed Wall Street houses which I highly doubt will trickle down to Chipotle, Devry and Apple.
The government can’t manufacture anymore bubbles. They are bubbled out. They’ve taken $10T onto their balance sheets between the FED and Gubmint bailouts and still don’t have a positive GDP number. If they do get a positive one in the next quarter it’ll be miniscule.
BC,
And Dick Fuld wonders why Lehman was allowed to collapse:) What a friggin’ sap
John, i turned my entire portfolio into cash at high 13k on the dow.
I still have plenty of time to dive into stocks and make out ahead of the game if this thing gets pumped up again.
I hold the option and that option has value. Also, im not committed so i have liquidity and and hedged to the down side by default.
But your portfolio has only one dimension with zero consideration of risk. Its a one way ticket to paradise with 50% chance you will land in hell.
I honestly hope your trades pay off but im not willing to take the risk you are.
John,
Can you get me a job at GS?
Nothing fancy. Anything with a bonus will do :)
The government can’t manufacture anymore bubbles. They are bubbled out
They are doing it right now.Give me a real positive growth why the stock market is up
“Give me a real positive growth why the stock market is up”
Simple. Markets have been performing like this for 2,000 years.
Simple. Markets have been performing like this for 2,000 years
Exactly, market works in bubbles.
Same store sales JC Penny -12.3.
More green turds today.
New at Reason.tv: Market Seer Peter Schiff, on the U.S. Becoming an “Economic Wasteland”
Hey, has anyone tried going onto Caculated Risk today? I’m getting blocked.
•Bank of England to Pump Extra $84 Billion Into Economy as Rate Maintained
This triggered a positive future this morning from negative
[76],
More like a fib retracement than a bubble. However, you can call it anything you want.
IMO, a better example of an impending bubble; our treas market.
good news for srs share holders. it finally turns to postive after this mornings sell-off. now it has joined the party!
“good news for srs share holders.”
Another yawn.
“The guvernment can’t manufacture anymore bubbles. They are bubbled out”
its my belief that govt has endless supply of bubbles at their disposal.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/08/wages-and-salaries-fell-47-most-on.html
#37 – HEHEHE
…consumer sentiment is down even with the stock market rising…
Not only are people being laid off with unemployment rising, those who do have jobs are losing income – no raises etc.
I don’t see a change in consumer sentiment without a jobs change. What a long haul. First, working folks have to get back to full employment then we need new jobs of thousands.
People who aren’t working just want a job. They could care less about the direction of the stock market.
The CDC’s projection on Swine Flu deaths, if accurate, should ameliorate the job loss situation. Maybe the rushed Swine flu shots, will assure their projection is correct.
“its my belief that govt has endless supply of bubbles at their disposal.”
veto,
Yes, you can manipulate, stall, print and freeze. All short term gimmicks. It’s actually easy to kick the can down the street. However, the only sustainable recovery includes increasing employment and wages, within the private sector. Will the govt hire the 26M unemployed/under-employed?
Why do you assume that the next bubble created will be a positive to the economy?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
BkylnHawk @ 79 – No problems here.
Japan has 200% debt to GDP,China has 75% US has 25%
25% debt to asset ratio is pretty good don’t you think.If not we can always manufacture a war.
Check out this comp killer in Chatham:
326 Lafayette (2696511)
OLP 645,900
LP 629,900
Tax Assessed: 814,300
SOLD 5/9/05 830,000
SOLD 8/25/06 1,100,000
http://emailrpt.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?method=getData&sysid=%203961594&ptype=RES&report=res_media&pubid=259341&fromPublic=PUBLIC
Schiff was about to get his ass handed to him regarding Medicare on Morning Joe.
i think some folks got margin call this morning on srs. it went down as low as $11.35 and back up to 12.45 (10%) in 20 minutes. what a trader’s market!
BC, we’ve been kicking the can for forty years. what makes you think they have run out of ammo?
im sorry but the economy is not confined to your two basic principles.
i dont assume the next bubble will be positive to the economy. i dont even think the last bubbles were positive but they will accomplish what is needed to buy time and look for other, more sustainable solutions. if anyone thinks the puppeteers will lay down and abide bye the rules while we are reduced to a 2nd world economy they are not being realistic either.
Sell to the 80% employed.Look around the world.Alot of the countries have higher unemployment than the US.Asian countries have a very high unemployment.without unemployment benefits like the US.But they are still the increasing population in the world.China for example,high unemployment with booming economy.
BC [87]
>>Will the govt hire the 26M unemployed/under-employed?
… what makes you think they won’t?
‘Check out this comp killer in Chatham:
326 Lafayette (2696511)’
NJ Gator. Why is this a comp killer? it looks abandoned but i dont see a recent asking price…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/06/AR2009080601413.html
You need to scroll down to find the article..
“Initial claims for state unemployment insurance fell 38,000 to a seasonally adjusted 550,000 in the week ended August 1 from 588,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said.”
SRS close to 11. If i had guts like john, i’d take a huge position right now.
#1 – New Jersey’s suburban counties… lack the mass transit to move those people… the findings make the case for officials to find new revenue sources for the state Transportation Trust Fund
Well, you could also change zoning laws to allow for mixed use so private car ownership isn’t a requirement in the suburbs.
“BC, we’ve been kicking the can for forty years.”
veto,
Look where it got us. Now the magic rabbit is to replace consumer debt with govt debt. Sorry, Mr Market will beat the govt in the long term. There has not been not one govt, in our history, that has attained prosperity by means of printing massive amounts of debt. This one will not be the first.
“SRS close to 11. If i had guts like john, i’d take a huge position right now.”
veto,
I may step in.
Seneca [95],
Then we can all bend over and kiss it goodbye. Oh, one other item. If you believe this will occur, better get short the dollar.
Yome- do you have a link to your debt to GDP numbers?
Your 25 percent does not seem correct.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE57504V20090806?sp=true
SEC plans more subpoena power, enhanced units
People will be given more incentives…immunity?
#98,
SRS is going to a $100 ….. after a reverse stop split, so buy now.
Sean [103],
It’s not even close. When you all up total obligations, it’s more like 300-350%.
Maybe Yome has two stats, balance and off balance sheet obligations?
Essex says:
August 6, 2009 at 10:29 am
Schiff was about to get his ass handed to him regarding Medicare on Morning Joe.
SX: With complete apologies to albani….I am sick of Schiff. He is so completely full of sh!t. He is so fcked he is talking out of both sides of his mouth…..he says one thing, but is lying about what he is really doing….
Buy an out of the money call on SRS if you think it has a big pop. Do not BUY SRS outright.
You do not buy a risky stock that is over 5 bucks a share. Under 2 bucks the option is almost as expensive as the underlying. Buy a 6 month plus call on SRS the cheapest you can get with a strike between 15 and 30.
BTW I am not a risk taker. I first built up munis, then investment grade, then junk. A tiny bit pref and common only when stocks were crazy in the tank. Right now I have a big income stream off the bonds that I buy stuff with. The only real risk I took was to buy 100K of sub bank bonds and 50K of insurance bonds when things were at their darkest. But that was imaginary risk. Remember the real risk is lower when Joe Blow is in a panic. A bond that was at par with a recover rate of 30 cents fell to 40 cents in March. At Par one year earlier on a two year 10K bond with a 7% coupon my upside is $1,400 and my downside is a 6K loss, at 40 cents my upside is 7,400 and downside is 1,000.
I wish I did not play it safe and bought GNW, AIG, XL, F common straight up.
“Sorry, Mr Market will beat the govt in the long term.”
BC, you are the man. i dont disagree with you at all. I question how long the long term is. Any claim that i make that fed can bubble their way out are made in consideration of this.
i think they can buy themselves another 20-30yrs just using their short term gimmicks.
Over long term we need to build on fundamental growth. i couldnt agree with your philosophy more.
BC, let me know when you dive into srs. i’ll do it too. But i will do it like a woman and put a 10% stop loss in place.
I believe that nothing, NOTHING, is off the table.
““I was not going to be the Federal Reserve chairman who presided over the second Great Depression,” – Ben Bernanke
If this is your M.O., then if paying people to shovel dirt from one pile into another is the answer, why not?
I am not sure I believe in Mr. Market anymore.
GS Aug08 tading at 162.17
GS Aug09 trading at 168.00
… and LEH is gone? What free market?
Are Houses Finally Cheap?
http://customsites.yahoo.com/financiallyfit/finance/article-107466-2179-0-are-houses-finally-cheap
snip
“I’m no evangelist for the financial merits of homeownership. Two years ago I argued here that house prices in the U.S. had grown so bloated that renting had become a better deal than owning. Since then, prices have plunged 30%, or about 36% after inflation. Nationally, they still seem too high, as I’ll show in a moment, and May’s gain could prove illusory — SmartMoney’s Aleksandra Todorova points out that it disappears after adjusting for seasonality, and that the numbers probably got a temporary boost from government freezes on foreclosure proceedings.”
snip
“Second, some of the lines have plunged harder than others of late. For those who wish to buy in Chicago, Miami and San Francisco, there’s good news: The froth seems to have been let out of the market. Meanwhile, New Yorkers, Bostonians and Angelinos might want to wait. Of course, averages are just that. Careful shoppers can find good deals in expensive markets, while imprudent ones can overpay just about anywhere.
Renters, take heart. I’m still one of you. I’m not shopping yet. Prices aren’t at once-in-a-lifetime lows. They’re returning from (hopefully) once-in-a-lifetime highs. But for those for whom the pride of home ownership beckons, the payoff might soon be calling, too.”
“he says one thing, but is lying about what he is really doing….”
Chi,
Did he start his career at GS?
Re: Fraudulent Conveyances
Haven’t seen Cuomo’s report but will look for it.
Don’t underestimate what he can do under fraudulent conveyance theory. Those around in the late ’80s will recall it helped throw the brakes on the LBO boom. Similar situation as now – big, bad Wall Streeters profiting off the misery of the everyman with the government looking to shut it down through any means necessary. Trot out and (mis)apply 13th century English legal principles and viola! bad guys vanquished.
Like other specific statutes that have been applied broadly to quell (stir?) public outrage it is a potent tool in the hands of the government, particularly in the hands of a politically ambitious prosecutor. In another instance of past becomes present, RICO and a certain NY-based prosecutor from the ’80s still with an eye on Albany come to mind.
“Buy an out of the money call on SRS if you think it has a big pop. Do not BUY SRS outright.”
J,
Funny you should mention. I’m looking at long dated calls, call spreads.
BC Bob, I know you know, I don’t want people running out and buying a high expense ETF where if the market bubbles for a few weeks they could lose 50-70% of their cash.
#115,
50-70% is not much left from the top for the SRS bag holders, go out and buy it all.
Frank, remember it does not matter how much it has fallen. When you buy a leveraged ETF you can always lose 100% of your investment. Even if you got in at 90% off. Also there are tons of people shorting or buying puts on SRS so only the long SRS holders are bag holders the rest are millionaires.
#117,
But when you bought it @ $100, what’s another $10, when you down $90. Buy some FAZ as well.
J,
Take a look at the leaps. Interesting.
re: “Why is this a comp killer?”
Take a second look at the post.
SOLD 8/25/06 $1,100,000
LP $629,900
Qwerty,
Gator must have the wrong info. Can’t possibly happen in Chatham. Asking 40% off 2006? Must be a mistake.
J,
If i dive into srs at 11, it would only be because i think there is a good chance it will go to 14. but I dont think there is a good chance it will get back above 20 or 30 so options are not for me.
Dont forget that govt is handing money out to anyone who moves. They will throw a couple billion toward commercial re in the next stimulus and all of a sudden srs can drop to 3.
The Congressional Budget Office predicts that government debt will peak around 54 percent of GDP in 2011.
But Buffett told CNBC Monday morning that the ratio could surpass 80 percent — unless there are significant spending cuts or tax increases.
http://www.moneynews.com/headlines/warren_buffett/2009/05/04/210480.html
Sean i can’t find the article i posted here.this is all i can find
RE: market…the thing is going green….you guys watch it……we haven’t melted up yet. If you go, do not shoot your load. The lady wants seconds…..
Are there leaps on SRS? Or Leaps in general.
BC Bob says:
August 6, 2009 at 11:17 am
J,
Take a look at the leaps. Interesting.
chi, english buddy please. im slow as it is.
Seneca (11)-
It’s probably cheaper to live in a crap town and send your kids to Lawrenceville, Pingry, etc…
J [125],
Had my dates wrong. Almost a leap, Jan 2011, srs.
yo (15)-
Here we go…
•Greenberg Said to Pay $15 Million to Settle SEC Accounting Claims Over AIG
Ge to pay $25 million to settle SEC
Where is all this money going?
veto that says:
August 6, 2009 at 11:31 am
chi, english buddy please. im slow as it is.
veets: I am in fear of panic buying. If the stock market is going to drop off a table, I am guessing that it will be preceded by a wave of buying as people who are short the market have to buy to close out their positions, and people out of the market rush in and buy. If people are looking to short here, I would make only small bets, with the thought being that you will likely want dry powder for tactical trading in the next several days or weeks. JMHO….bottom line, there is nothing particularly compelling to buy here. People are looking at where SRS has been and somehow think that the nominal change in price represents an opportunity. It may, but the price in itself provides no information unless you live and breath technicals. If so, using technical on a double short sector ETF with resetting daily returns sounds like as much of a fcuked idea as I can fathom.
Clot don’t hate the players,hate the game or is it the other way around?
The end is nigh….
The consequences of misunderstanding the lingo can be mortifying. Cassandra McSparin, 23, of Jim Thorpe, Pa., knew a woman whose friend’s mother had died. The woman texted her friend: “I’m so sorry to hear about your mother passing away. LOL. Let me know if there’s anything I can do.”
It turns out she thought LOL meant “Lots of love.”
from yesterday’s WSJ
LIFE & STYLE AUGUST 5, 2009
Quick! Tell Us What KUTGW Means
By STEPHANIE RAPOSO
Kate Washburn didn’t know what to make of the email a friend sent to her office with the abbreviation “NSFW” written at the bottom. Then she clicked through the attached sideshow, titled “Awkward Family Photos.” It included shots of a family in furry “nude” suits and of another family alongside a male walrus in a revealing pose.
After looking up NSFW on NetLingo.com—a Web site that provides definitions of Internet and texting terms—she discovered what it stood for: “Not safe for work.”
“If I would have known it wasn’t safe for work, I wouldn’t have taken the chance of being inappropriate,” says Ms. Washburn, 37 years old, a media consultant in Grand Rapids, Mich.
As text-messaging shorthand becomes increasingly widespread in emails, text messages and Tweets, people like Ms. Washburn are scrambling to decode it. In many offices, a working knowledge of text-speak is becoming de rigueur. And at home, parents need to know the lingo in order to keep up with—and sometimes police—their children.
One reason for the surge in texting abbreviations—more than 2,000 and counting, according to NetLingo—is the boom in social-media sites like Twitter, where messages are limited to 140 characters. Text messages, too, are limited in length, so users have developed an alphabet soup of shorthand abbreviations to save time, and their thumbs.
Taking time to learn the jargon may seem like a WOMBAT (“Waste of money, brains and time”). But with over one trillion text messages sent and received in the U.S. last year, according to CTIA-The Wireless Association, an industry trade group, you run the risk of feeling out of it if you don’t.
“If a CEO does not appear to be tech-savvy, people may start to wonder, ‘Is the company not plugged into today’s technologies also?’” says Stephanie Grayson, a corporate speech and media trainer based in New York.
The confusion has given rise to a number of resources that provide English translations for terms like WRUD (“What are you doing?”) and TTYL (“Talk to you later”)—among them independent Web sites like NetLingo.com and UrbanDictionary.com and corporate ones like LG Mobile Phones’ DTXTR.com. Textapedia, a pocket guide to texting terms released last year, is sold in over 4,000 stores nationwide. NetLingo reports a 391% increase in the number of unique visitors over the past five years, while UrbanDictionary says it saw a 40% jump in its unique visitors last June from June 2008.
Both the AP Stylebook and Merriam-Webster Dictionary recognized texting shorthand for the first time in their 2009 editions, which were released in June. The AP Stylebook now includes IMO (“In my opinion”), ROFL (“Rolling on the floor laughing”) and BFF (“Best friends forever”), among others. Merriam-Webster defines LOL (“Laugh out loud”) and OMG (“Oh my God”).
“These abbreviations have shown they are very likely to be a part of our language for a long time,” says Peter Sokolowski, editor at large at Merriam-Webster.
Branding strategist Elizabeth Kanna, 50, maintains a “Mom’s Text Talk Sheet,” a cheat sheet of over 30 textisms created and updated constantly by her three teenage daughters, on her desk at work. Ms. Kanna, who lives in Sacramento, Calif., says she refers to it daily as many of her clients prefer communicating through text shorthand like SWDYT (“So what do you think?”) and WDYM (“What do you mean?”).
Bert Martinez Communications LLC, a Houston-based consulting firm, hired a 20-year-old and two teenagers last fall to help teach texting vernacular to its staff of six. “It gave us the confidence that we could use the lingo and connect with the younger clientele on their level,” says Bert Martinez, president of the firm, which now conducts about 20% of its communication with clients via texting.
Teenagers, for their part, text in code for a reason, says Anne Mitchell, president of the Institute for Social Internet Public Policy, based in Boulder, Colo. “It is usually because they are involved in activities which they don’t want their parents to discover, such as casual sex, drugs and alcohol,” she says. Indeed, parents may be startled by such popular terms as GNOC (“Get naked on camera”), POS (“Parent over shoulder”), LMIRL (“Let’s meet in real life”) and IWSN (“I want sex now”).
Susan Avery, senior editor at ParentDish.com, AOL’s parenting Web site, says she has observed parents becoming more concerned about not knowing what their kids are talking about. “The best thing is to embrace it and use it as a bonding experience with your child,” she says.
Shannon Snyder, a writer in Vancouver, B.C., uses DTXTR.com to monitor her children. “I don’t want my kid to be the racist or the rude kid because he’s repeating a random composition of letters he heard someone else say in school and thought it was cool,” says Ms. Snyder, 34.
The fact that 15-year-old Jack Beisel’s mother uses texting shortcuts like HBU (“How about you?”) and CIL (“Check in later”) strengthens their relationship, he says. “It makes her seem like she’s a little more understanding about modern culture,” says Mr. Beisel, who lives in Bayport, N.Y.
The consequences of misunderstanding the lingo can be mortifying. Cassandra McSparin, 23, of Jim Thorpe, Pa., knew a woman whose friend’s mother had died. The woman texted her friend: “I’m so sorry to hear about your mother passing away. LOL. Let me know if there’s anything I can do.”
It turns out she thought LOL meant “Lots of love.”
I guess I should have written TEIN
chicagofinance says:
August 6, 2009 at 11:50 am
The end is nigh….
Seems a valuable tool…
Taking time to learn the jargon may seem like a WOMBAT (“Waste of money, brains and time”)
thanks for translating. im no a technical analyst.
exactly half my short term trades blow up in my face, offseting the good trades so im just as well not trading at all.
if the market starts to turn south, srs could go up sharply. but for the folks whose average cost is onver $20. the best they can do is “analytic masturbation” – courtesy to chifi.
starting from yesterday, i think the market finally starts to move to the right directiion – DOWN! i miss the days when dow went down 10% in a single session, utility stocks down 15% during the day. thats when bulls can make money.
Grim, you gonna let shit-for-brains keep this up?
Re: Fannie good bank/bad bank
Sleight of hand. Isn’t the Messiah a major proponent of forgiving principal?
He couldn’t get the banks on board for it, he couldn’t get the IRS through the implied income issue, and he couldn’t get the public on board to support letting deadbeats off the hook.
So…put all the deadbeats into a new government entity and just fail to collect.
Same desired outcome, only better.
138 – bi when the DOW was going down from 14K, did you jump in at 12.6k? at 11.34k? etc… seems like that play money account must be in a serious hole, maybe its time to make a new account and start fresh?
“the best they can do is “analytic masturbation”
bi,
This from someone who visions a phantom head and shoulders formation?
“Grim, you gonna let shit-for-brains keep this up?”
Clot,
And that’s one of his most positive traits.
i periodically adjust myself to the market movement, unlike you guys who sticks to one direction forever. that’s why i don’t see why i am so excited when the market is moving down right now.
If the gubmint has already taken Fannie/Freddie into conservatorship and essentially backing their loan portfolio with taxpayer money isn’t this proposal just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic?
Re: 326 Lafayette, Chatham
Gator,
Know the house well. Silly sales price. Buyer could have had the same or better house in a better neighborhood for the same price at the time of purchase. I know I sound like a novice or apologist but it is a wild outlier. At the time it made as much sense as the $1.7m knockdown (39 Dale) that occurred the same year. BTW, the next door knockdown (41 Dale) sold a year later at $1.0.
Both of the above confirm my theory of irrational seller pricing – “You don’t have to convince everyone your price is reasonable, just one person.”
326 though is still overpriced because it’s on a busier street (a few blocks from the HS), not really in a defined ‘neighborhood’, and has absolutely zero backyard.
However, it’s getting interesting as a knockdown. It does have a very flat yard and if one were to change the orientation to the side street the new house would have a deep, nice yard and could still be 70 ft wide. I can put up a new, standard issue $2m+ quality house for $140 ft2. Get 326 down into the low 500s and I’m interested. A new house there won’t break $2m because of the neighborhood, but there’s still room for decent profit and declining market cushion.
“•Greenberg Said to Pay $15 Million to Settle SEC Accounting Claims Over AIG
Ge to pay $25 million to settle SEC
Where is all this money going?”
They are paying taxpayer induced fines with taxpayer money.
143#,
clot, give you benefit of doubt. you once claimed his average cost on srs was lower 20’s. what do you think when it is traded under $12 now. it’s 50% off. my friend!
does anyone know what happened??
http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/2009/08/auction_sale_for_14_hoboken_co.html
Is Frank still in the A&F line?
“NEW YORK — Shoppers, worried about job security and finding fewer options among the sales bins, remained tight-fisted in July, resulting in sluggish sales for many merchants and raising concern about the back-to-school shopping season’s health”
“Among teen retailers, Abercrombie & Fitch posted a 28 percent same-store sales decline, worse than the 26.9 percent drop that analysts expected”
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jEUOBuLQexhEw6Sbb1sU7mSLR6iAD99TE2I80
“does anyone know what happened??’
Frank,
They sold over peak. Hoboken is on fire.
143#, bob, serious question for you. if your track record was so good at gold, which happens to be in the line of your daily work (fx/commodity), why do you need be tarped?
#149 – FTFA; Suggested opening bids will start at $150,000 for the condos, which were originally priced from $419,000 to $619,000.
Where’s the…. oh, wait.
bi [152],
I just thought moral hazard was the new bubble. No?
Isn’t the new paradigm, heads I win, tails others lose? If not, I’m confused.
Read this through the veil of masturbation…
bi says:
August 6, 2009 at 12:22 pm
i periodically adjust myself to the market movement, unlike you guys who sticks to one direction forever. that’s why i don’t see why i am so excited when the market is moving down right now.
These holier-than-though NAPFA scumbags have the ridiculously tardy stories………
August 06, 2009
Fee-Only Pioneer Zabalaoui Sentenced To 8 Years
During an emotional court case yesterday, a federal judge sentenced 71-year-old former planner Judith Zabalaoui to 97 months in prison for using a Ponzi scheme to embezzle millions from clients in the New Orleans area.
Citing the severity of the offenses, Federal District Judge Mary Ann Vial Lemmon also ordered Zabalaoui to pay $3,255,000 in restitution and a $100,000 fine. Zabalaoui also will be under federal supervision for three years after her prison term.
Zabalaoui founded the financial advisory firm Resource Management Inc. in Metairie, La., in 1974. By the time she left the firm in 1991 to set up her own business, Zabalaoui, a certified financial planner, was regarded as one of the pioneers of the financial advisory profession and among the first advisors to transition to a fee-only model in the early 1980s. However, she never joined the National Association of Personal Financial Planners and allowed her CFP license to lapse several years ago. Resource Management has denied any involvement with Zabalaoui since she left the firm and has not been accused of any wrongdoing.
I would like to amend a silly statement I made in past discussions about lawn mowers. OK, not amend, overturn, disavow, refute. For 2 and a half years I have been using a push reel mower. I recently saw the light, and it is gas-powered and self-propelled. What the hell was I thinking???? I may install a beer holder before I move up to a riding mower with DVD entertainment system.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fall More Than Projected (Update2)
By Bob Willis
Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) — The number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits fell more than economists predicted, a sign some employers have stopped paring staff as the recession eases.
Applications dropped by 38,000 to 550,000 in the week ended Aug. 1, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington, the fifth straight time claims were under 600,000 after being above that level since January. The total number of people collecting unemployment insurance rose.
The pace of job cuts isn’t slowing fast enough to keep unemployment from rising. A report tomorrow will show the jobless rate jumped to the highest in 26 years in July, economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predict. Stagnating wages and falling home values also mean consumer spending, about 70 percent of the economy, will be slow to recover.
“These numbers signal the worst is behind us, but we are not out of the woods yet,” said David Semmens, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York. “We are not going to see strong consumer spending with numbers that look like this.”
Economists forecast claims would drop to 580,000 from a previously estimated 584,000, according to the median of 40 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 550,000 to 600,000.
The four-week moving average, a less-volatile measure than weekly initial claims, fell to 555,250 from 560,000 the prior week
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDOKOhrVP9f8
Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) — Berkshire Hathaway Inc., with a stock portfolio valued at more than $60 billion, may report its best quarter in at least two years using the metric preferred by the firm’s billionaire chairman, Warren Buffett.
About $11 billion in gains in Berkshire’s stocks and a recovery of derivative bets tied to equity markets caused book value, a measure of assets minus liabilities, to reverse after two quarters of declines, according to analysts and investors including Glenn Tongue at T2 Partners LLC. Berkshire is set to report second-quarter results tomorrow.
“It’s going to be a blockbuster,” said Tongue, whose New York-based firm’s largest holding is Berkshire shares. “It may well be the greatest dollar gain in book value in any quarter in the history of the company. Warren Buffett showed extraordinary discipline in the first quarter when all others were losing their heads.”
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awoqVe5KpeUQ
@155 chi, that was hysterical! i think you’ve been listening to DM too much.
We must be nearing the end of a pump get ready for the dump so lets bring in the chumps.
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE57546Z20090806
All SRS bag holders should join these guys….
The SRS Class Action Lawsuits Start
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/srs-class-action-lawsuits-start
AIG breakup nets Wall Street $1 billion bonanza
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE57508M20090806
Is This Rally Out of Sync with the Economy?
Unknowingly, investors have been watching a bull and bear work together simultaneously. We have a stock market bull and an economy bear. How so?
For nearly five months, the major U. S. indexes such as the S&P 500, along with international stocks have been climbing higher and higher. Simultaneously, economic numbers continue to disappoint. In other words, the stock market bull is thriving, while the economy bear is diving.
Full of confidence, the stock bull is vivacious and obvious to all while the economy bear is ashamed of its dark existence. It thus makes sense that bad news is hardly broadcasted, in some instances one even has to search for it.
Just because the bad news hasn’t been presented with neon lights doesn’t mean it isn’t there. In fact, the prevalence of bad news would ironically be good news, because as we know, new bull markets climb a wall of worry. The fact that worrisome data isn’t making it to the front page of newspapers and prime financial television should worry the stock market bulls.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Is-This-Rally-Out-of-Sync-etfguide-2678982285.html?x=0&.v=1
I never understood the fascination with these leveraged ETFs. If you look at the long term chart for both the long and short on the same market, they both are heading towards zero, which is exactly what they are modeled to do, regardless of where the market goes. It’s a hot potato that no one wants to be holding when the music stops.
“If so, using technical on a double short sector ETF with resetting daily returns sounds like as much of a fcuked idea as I can fathom.”
Quote of the week!
Ask the Economists: Obama’s second 100 days
Alice Rivlin: High marks for quick actionMap
Desmond Lachman: He’s making things worst
Martin Regalia: Budget proposals are ‘jaw dropping’
Jeffrey Frankel: Obama ‘willing to fight the fight’
link
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2009/fortune/0908/gallery.economists_obama_200_days.fortune/4.html
ben, look at srs in last 5 days. it is appealing considering it can move up or down over 40% a a few days. that’s not what you can expect from nj muni bonds.
these are designed for short-term traders.
Also, you shouldn’t trade ultralong and ultrshort in the same fashion. for ultralongs, it came down a lot since the underlying were still down 40% from the peak. for long term, the ultralongs will go up if the underlying etf goes up. 1 year return would be 1.5x to 2x depending on the volatility.
>It’s a hot potato that no one wants to be holding when the music stops.
The market goes up every day for about 5 months. Bi says look out if the S&P closes above 2000. The day after it closes above 2000, the rally stops dead in its tracks. Moral of the story: Bi’s black box is alive and well!
I still don’t see why leveraged etf’s are a problem. They follow the market’s trend like anything else. Double inverse in a rising market you feel the pain. In a dropping market you reap the rewards. They’ll never go to zero because too many trading desks use them to hedge. They gain momentum when there’s market turmoil/boom as traders switch from hedging to piling in to make a quick buck.
HEHEHE,
it’s not that they are going to zero. But look at the entire chart through their existence. Both of them do nothing but go down and approach zero. Their models are built so that they constantly decay and the short term movements up and down are the only things you play off of. When the decay out weighs the up/down movements, they become pointless.
Talk about making a quick buck – Stu – Check this out –
Maxing out on a nickel machine…
ok i got suckered into buying more srs.
These etf day trades are Like playing a video game for me, pure entertainment.
http://www.sacbee.com/ourregion/story/2086820.html?storylink=omni_popular
ooppss here’s the link
Cindy,
I don’t do slots! She’ll be broke in 3 years.
“Nott said she plans to buy her best friend a car, pay off her car loan, set up a trust fund for her two children, who recently graduated from college, invest some of the money and maybe go on a trip to Mexico with friends.”
Hackers attack Twitter, Facebook also slows down
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_tec_twitter_outage
Now how are we supposed to know when Shaq goes to take a dump!?!?
SRS? That’s old time. DRV is the new place. Why go double down when you can triple?
stu, no no no. scroll back a few posts of mine today and last few days. my blackbox has already signaled diffrent direction.
> Stu says:
August 6, 2009 at 1:53 pm
The market goes up every day for about 5 months. Bi says look out if the S&P closes above 2000. The day after it closes above 2000, the rally stops dead in its tracks. Moral of the story: Bi’s black box is alive and well!
http://www.the33tv.com/news/kdaf–lingerie-football-starts-up-story,0,2449489.story
Now this is my type of football league
Leftwing 146 – Just checked the Morris Country Sheriff sale site after doing further research. 326 Lafayette was sold at Sheriff Sale on 6/11 to the Plaintiff for $100.
Judgment amount was – $1,066,448.33.
The owner also lost another home to foreclosure in Jan 08.
John,
S&P is bacl below 1000. Where’s a GS flack to give us a bounce?
FTC Ruling: $1 Million-a-Day Fine on Oil Manipulation
http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk/ftc_oil_manipulation_rule/2009/08/06/244698.html
JS says:
August 6, 2009 at 2:15 pm
How how are we supposed to know when Shaq goes to take a dump!?!?
It take longer for the bowl to clear…..
REITs Rating Changes Overwhelmingly Negative: 38 Downgrades and 2 Upgrades by Moody
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/REITs-Rating-Changes-twst-3848787987.html?x=0&.v=1
Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman says S&P may hit 1,100 in 2009
HEHEHE says:
August 6, 2009 at 2:39 pm
John,
S&P is bacl below 1000. Where’s a GS flack to give us a bounce?
Biggs: S&P Will Climb Another 22 Percent
http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk/biggs_stocks_higher/2009/08/05/244252.html
In the United States, cost cuts at companies will eventually lead to better earnings
Homebuilders Eliminate Frills as First-Time Buyers Drive Sales
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=akCaYx29BrI8
Good read, some highlights:
““Spending another $20,000 on upgrades just didn’t make sense to me,” said Miller, 30, a chef at Ball State University in Muncie, who bought from Pulte Homes Inc., the second-largest U.S. homebuilder. ”
snip
“The average size of new homes is down to 2,065 square feet, the smallest since 2000, and the median price this year has yet to rise above 2004 levels, according to the Census Bureau. June’s median of $206,200 was 12 percent below a year earlier. “
This morning, I got blamed at the lunch table for rising oil prices because they knew I bought into the market from the end of Dec to Feb. There is no hope for reform. The same people that complain about high prices of oil and everything else are the ones cheering on the Federal Reserve printing press and the deficit spending. Is it that hard to make the connection that printing money leads to rising prices? Seriously, these people’s names start with “Doctor”.
Yeah another 22% on cost cuts. Gimme a break. I guess thats why he makes the big bucks.
HE (190)-
The S&P is already filled with zombie companies. Another 22% climb, based on cost cuts?
At that point, we will indeed be an economy that only produces debt and paperwork.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=a_Ml8lbxlMw4
This can’t be good for WFC.
Effect of the cost cuts?
Reuters
US food stamp list tops 34 million for first time
08.06.09, 11:26 AM EDT
FOODSTAMPS/USA:US food stamp list tops 34 million for first time
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – For the first time, more than 34 million Americans received food stamps, which help poor people buy groceries, government figures said on Thursday, a sign of the longest and one of the deepest recessions since the Great Depression
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/reuters/2009/08/06/2009-08-06T152646Z_01_N06328040_RTRIDST_0_FOODSTAMPS-USA.html
Gator
Who is the Plaintiff, a bank?
If so, interesting they are moving relatively aggressively in pricing to get rid of the foreclosure.
Leftwing 194 – Yes
John,
S&P 997?!?! WTF?
The end is nigh…..
http://www.flickr.com/photos/steve-brandon/269069446/
Bordel de merde canadien.
just an observation, but i was looking at the december calls on sds. > 15K open interest at the 59 and 80 strikes. i might be wrong but it seems to me like some out there might be gambling on a vertical call spread, with a cumulative ~4 mil at risk with ~33 mil max profit. at least a few seem to be thinking there will be a retracement down to ~ s&p 750.
is my observation off base?
http://www.remax-nj.com/remaxnj/?p=findahome.asp&page=search&search=&selected=mls&listing=true&mlsnumber=2670607&mlsid=203&acc=&lwsredirect=1
Someone explain this listing to me, here is the description:
“Are you looking for a great neighborhood? Great Schools! Convenient Location! Then look no more! This beautiful 5BR colonial is set on almost 3 acres in the desirable Neshanic Station area. The home offers upgraded eat-in-kitchen that features, mocha-maple cabinets, corian counter top, and a built-in breakfast bar, 2 car garage, beautiful foyer with inlay marble designed flooring, family room with marble & wood fireplace, sliders to a Large 2-Tier Deck, finished Basement with Large Recreation Room, separate Pool table Area, exercise room plus Storage area. Master Bedroom has a Walk-in-Closet & Full Bath with Separate Shower & Soaking Tub and much more. Make an offer today!”
Look at the front picture… they had 3 acres and THATS where they decided to put the place?
The Realtor forgot the bit about the home being located near the only other Eiffel Tower replica in the US.
#199
just another thought. perhaps it’s just a hedge against some long positions?
BUY ON THE DIPS
HEHEHE says:
August 6, 2009 at 4:46 pm
John,
S&P 997?!?! WTF?
201 hah!
Got to give the realtor credit for their honesty in the listing. I suppose its better to let people know that the power lines are there; rather then wasting their time if the whole power line in your back yard isnt your cup of tea.
I am not sure of this was posted before..but this for the SRS bagholders on this site..
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/srs-class-action-lawsuits-start
JS (200)-
That’s nothing. It also has a transcon gas line running thru the backyard and the house backs to Rt 202.
Should be great for the buyer who is deaf, isn’t afraid of being blown up and doesn’t fear brain cancer from a high-tension electrical line hanging 12 feet over his head.
BREAKING NEWS: ‘Breakfast Club’ director John Hughes dies at 59
He was only 59, wow
Bueller…Bueller?
205#, zack, the bagholders on this site are automatically disqualified for this class action. why? since spring 2008, i have been warned them not hold this bag for more than 1 week.
‘Breakfast Club’ director John Hughes
Wow, he wrote or directed almost all of the early 80’s teen movies; Weird Science, Pretty in Pink, Ferris Buehler.
Another first today: I listed a short sale which closed in December of ’08. As short sales go, this one was very uneventful. Some other agent brought a buyer, the buyer got a pretty good price and the house didn’t really have anything wrong with it.
Today, the new owner called me. Bad stuff happening…needs to get out…how fast can I list it?…is there any chance to get more than was paid in December?
Tomorrow, there is an excellent chance that I’ll be listing the same house for its second short sale in less than 12 months.
If that’s not ‘Nam-grade exfoliant on green shoots, I don’t know what is.
bi (210)-
The only kind of bag I want discussed here is the plastic one you should be putting over your head.
…or the body bag they put you in before the meatwagon hauls your sorry ass away.
The Coming China Meltdown
by Martin Hutchinson August 04, 2009
Shares are trading at 35 times earnings. Banks in the last six months have lent more than the entire Gross Domestic Product for the period. Interest rates are below the inflation rate, while monetary growth is far above it. The seven largest bond transactions in the world in 2009 were domestic deals in this country.
Looks like a bubble to me, and bound to end in tears. In a Western economy, one would be sure of it. So why should we think China’s different, and what would be the effects of a Chinese economic meltdown?
http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/thebearslairview?art_id=10256
213#, 214#, why u got so upset recently? simply lost too much money on your short position?
204 – JS – Claiming that Neshanic Station is desirable is not honesty. It’s more like fraud.
bi:
You don’t know when to say when. Last I recalled, you weren’t even allowed to mention SRS.
JS says:
August 6, 2009 at 5:07 pm
Look at the front picture… they had 3 acres and THATS where they decided to put the place?
They forgot to mention free birth control….due to male sterility….
toshiro_mifune says:
August 6, 2009 at 5:38 pm
‘Breakfast Club’ director John Hughes
Wow, he wrote or directed almost all of the early 80’s teen movies; Weird Science, Pretty in Pink, Ferris Bueh
Nose candy?
218#, stu, even after i turned bullish on srs?
>Stu says:
August 6, 2009 at 6:00 pm
bi:
You don’t know when to say when. Last I recalled, you weren’t even allowed to mention SRS.
207 Yo’me
BREAKING NEWS: ‘Breakfast Club’ director John Hughes dies at 59
I am terribly sad now. I think I will have a beer and watch some of his movies- since I’m trapped in the 80’s anyway.
#220 – Nose candy?
/sniff
What do you mean?
re: #215 – FXP big spike in volume over the last few weeks.
206.Clotpoll says:
August 6, 2009 at 5:27 pm
JS (200)-
That’s nothing. It also has a transcon gas line running thru the backyard and the house backs to Rt 202.
Should be great for the buyer who is deaf, isn’t afraid of being blown up and doesn’t fear brain cancer from a high-tension electrical line hanging 12 feet over his head.
Sounds like a good house for Teddy Kennedy.
Oh My Freakin God, Kudlow just said that Abby Joeseph Cohen was a great picker of stocks in both up and down markets…..
That’s it. I am never watching Kudlow again. Tired of seeing the giant circle jerk.
bi = SRS on the brain and not much else.
A good chunk of his fortune is dependent on taxpayer largess. Were it not for government bailouts, for which Buffett lobbied hard, many of his company’s stock holdings would have been wiped out.
Berkshire Hathaway, in which Buffett owns 27 percent, according to a recent proxy filing, has more than $26 billion invested in eight financial companies that have received bailout money. The TARP at one point had nearly $100 billion invested in these companies and, according to new data released by Thomson Reuters, FDIC backs more than $130 billion of their debt.
To put that in perspective, 75 percent of the debt these companies have issued since late November has come with a federal guarantee
http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/2009/08/04/buffetts-betrayal/?p=3010?tempedition=debatehub
Hoboken market continues to be on fire, 10 UC this week.
http://hudson.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=c630f567-0ea8-4c6f-a8ce-2231b2bf8cad&Report=Yes
p.s. F the Hudson Co. MLS
Sean,
Yeah the volume’s been up big for the past few weeks. Thought it was going to make a move a week or so ago when it went above 14 but it got the smack down then the stop limits got blown through
Oh bother..
Fannie Mae seeks $10.7B in US aid after 2Q loss
Fannie Mae plans to tap $11 billion in new government aid after posting another massive quarterly loss as the taxpayer bill from the housing market bust keeps growing.
The mounting price tag for the rescue of Fannie and its goverment-sponsored sibling, Freddie Mac, is surpassed only by insurer American International Group Inc., which has received $182.5 billion in financial support from the government so far.
Fannie Mae’s new request for $10.7 billion from the Treasury Department will bring the total for Fannie and Freddie to nearly $96 billion. Freddie is expected to report its quarterly results on Friday.
The government has pledged up to $400 billion in aid for the two companies, which play a vital role in the mortgage market by purchasing loans from banks and selling them to investors. They have been under government control since last September, when their near-collapse helped set off the financial crisis.
$171 billion in nonperforming loans.
frank says:
Hoboken market continues to be on fire, 10 UC this week.
Frank,
Please report on some other towns besides Hoboken. Also, list the addresses and sales prices. You might actually do some home shoppers some good
“Hoboken market continues to be on fire, 10 UC this week.”
Forget about the mall expert, it’s Raymond Babbit.