“So you have to ask, why all the optimism?”

From Diana Olick at the CNBC Realty Check Blog:

Homeowners Still Deluded

A new report from Zillow.com finds that 60 percent of homeowners surveyed believe their home lost value in the past twelve months. In reality, 83 percent of all homes lost value. Owners in the South were the most deluded and those in the West, understandably, were the least. And to make matters worse, 81 percent of all homeowners surveyed actually believe their home value will not fall over the next six months; this as foreclosure numbers rise and all of the action in the housing market continues on the lowest of the low end. I have not found one expert (and I know I will as soon as I write this) who claims that home prices have hit bottom. Sales, perhaps, but not prices.

So you have to ask, why all the optimism? As we all know, it doesn’t come from me. I swim in the deep end of the pool with all the real numbers. I think it’s possible that some are confusing increased sales activity with sudden total recovery. This will not be a V-shaped recovery, where housing suddenly bounces back to normal levels of appreciation (4-6 percent a year). Housing is likely hit bottom and sit there for a good long while, as foreclosures work through the system, the mortgage market finds its footing, and government intervention changes the way we buy, sell, build and finance homes.

Trust me, I’m all for home appreciation; like I always say, I own a home, and like most Americans, it is my single largest investment. But if we’re going to embrace a new responsibility in real estate investment (which I honestly hope we are), then we can’t let a few non-negative data points completely skew our vision of realty reality.

This entry was posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

167 Responses to “So you have to ask, why all the optimism?”

  1. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Scholes, Fellow Laureate Merton Call for Better Bank-Asset Data

    Myron Scholes joined Robert Merton, with whom he shared the 1997 Nobel prize for economics, in calling for banks to give investors a clearer picture of their worth by providing better valuations for illiquid assets.

    Banks should value illiquid assets by expanding the use of mark-to-market accounting or listing them on public exchanges whenever possible, Scholes said in a Bloomberg Radio interview yesterday. Scholes, winner of the Nobel with Merton for helping invent a model for pricing options, said investors need better pricing data to accurately value the debt and equity securities of banks.

    “I’d like to see us encourage many more securities held on the books of the banks be migrated to exchanges if possible,” he said. Doing so would “allow for market discovery and market pricing as much as possible,” Scholes added.

    Banks that oppose new accounting standards on asset values want to conceal depressed prices, Merton wrote in the Financial Times yesterday. He composed the column with Robert Kaplan, a professor at the Harvard Business School along with Merton, and Scott Richard, who the newspaper identified as a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.

    “This is not the way forward,” they wrote. “While regulators and legislators are keen to find simple solutions to complex problems, allowing financial institutions to ignore market transactions is a bad idea.”

  2. morpheus says:


  3. grim says:

    Sorry for the recycle, I thought this one was very much in line with the cynicism/skepticism here.

  4. grim says:

    Wow! Bill goes Cat 4 with some additional strengthening forecast! Going to make for some crazy waves this weekend.

  5. Cindy says:


    Bloomberg – Madoff lover tell all….

    “Bernie had a very small *****, she writes. “Not only was it on the short side, it was small in circumference.”

    Well there ya go. That explains everything…

  6. chicagofinance says:

    3.grim says:
    August 19, 2009 at 6:58 am
    Sorry for the recycle, I thought this one was very much in line with the cynicism/skepticism here.

    Why feed the beast?

  7. Cindy says:


    TBP – Home appraisal focus/comparison on two articles NYT/WSJ – w/ links.

  8. Cindy says:


    I know someone else will post this so I may as well let you know I saw it:

    “CalPERS Takes Another Property Hit.”

    This one in Portland, OR which was a pretty good market not that long ago. The troubling thing for me is – What is a retirement funds doing in these kinds of investments? Go buy some bonds or something.

  9. kettle1 says:


    here is a presentation on desalination (PDF)


    Last i checked California was still seeing higher then average desalination costs in the ballpark of $4+ / 1kgal.

    That is an expensive proposition compared to just pumping the water out of the group or out of a river.

    for someplace like california, the capital costs are likely to be a potentially serious barrier, for any large scale role out of desalination, without the federal government funding them


    My main point is that while nuclear has some very real risks associated with it, they must be kept in perspective. There is a lot of mis information and misconception about nuclear power. I am not necessarily advocating for it here, just debating what i believed to be incorrect statements about it.

    My view is that we will have to use it simply from a pragmatic supply demand point of view.

  10. A.West says:

    From the last thread, I read the Lazard Report predicting home prices down a further 8% to 19%.


    It was worth looking at, but I really think the quality of their model is lacking. It’s a single factor model for which they report an unrealistically high r-squared, given that errors are autocorrelated. They don’t even explicitly include mortgage rate changes in their model, or incomes.

    Can home prices really be forecasted only from the lagged amount of mortgages?

    I’d like home prices to fall more, and it seems like they should in NJ, but seems like NJ real estate would be driven most by job creation (destruction), incomes, and mortgage cost and availability.

  11. kettle1 says:


    This might help put the “scary radiation” issue in some perspective

    Oak Ridge National Laboratory(Coal Combustion: Nuclear Resource or Danger)

    “Using these data, the releases of radioactive materials per typical plant can be calculated for any year. For the year 1982, assuming coal contains uranium and thorium concentrations of 1.3 ppm and 3.2 ppm, respectively, each typical plant released 5.2 tons of uranium (containing 74 pounds of uranium-235) and 12.8 tons of thorium that year. Total U.S. releases in 1982 (from 154 typical plants) amounted to 801 tons of uranium (containing 11,371 pounds of uranium-235) and 1971 tons of thorium. These figures account for only 74% of releases from combustion of coal from all sources. Releases in 1982 from worldwide combustion of 2800 million tons of coal totaled 3640 tons of uranium (containing 51,700 pounds of uranium-235) and 8960 tons of thorium.”


    Coal power plants are already dumping significant amounts of radioactive materials downwind of their stacks. In fact they are the largest source of radioactive release.

  12. kettle1 says:

    Sorry grim

    will get back on topic now.


  13. A.West says:

    When I see homes just listing now at the tail end of the peak selling season, adding on to homes still sitting on the market for sale, would this be the best time of the year to get lowball offers ready? I assume that sellers would reject lowballs in Spring, assuming that they have all summer to find a sucker, I mean buyer for their property. But now, it’s almost back to school. Presumably, some of these people really have to sell, and if they haven’t sold yet, what makes them think that it will happen more easily during the fall/winter?

    Any further thoughts on the seasonal pricing dynamic, and the timing of offers far below asking px?

  14. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Copper Stockpiled by China’s Pig Farmers May Be Sold (Update2)

    Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) — Copper, nickel and other base metals stockpiled by speculative Chinese investors including pig farmers may be sold when “market sentiment turns,” said Scotia Capital Inc.

    A price surge and easy bank credit this year encouraged pig farmers, stock brokers and businessmen to buy copper and nickel for speculation, Liu Na, an analyst with Scotia Capital, wrote in a note dated Aug. 17, citing reports from the state-owned China Central Television. Scotia Capital is a unit of Toronto- based Bank of Nova Scotia.


    Puts a crimp in all that “the world economy is about to recover, look at the rise in commodity prices”:)

  15. relo says:

    1. Scholes & Merton. No mention of LTCM?

  16. grim says:

    Any further thoughts on the seasonal pricing dynamic, and the timing of offers far below asking px?

    I’ve always felt that Q4 and Q1 were the best periods for buyers, specifically the tail-end of Q4 moving into the start of Q1. From a contracts perspective, this is typically the slowest time of year. Which makes sense, since most won’t be contemplating a home purchase right around the holidays.

    Empty nesters generally have a “come to Jesus” moment in mid-October, when they realize they’ll be waiting until next summer to have a chance to sell to a family with kids.

    Likewise, properties with kids on the market in Q4 generally point to some need to sell, otherwise why put the kids through a disruption.

  17. gary says:

    And to make matters worse, 81 percent of all homeowners surveyed actually believe their home value will not fall over the next six months; this as foreclosure numbers rise and all of the action in the housing market continues on the lowest of the low end.

    Sellers, do you understand this? I’m a homeowner for years and realize this concept completely. Forget it. Don’t listen to your cousin or your neighbor or your aunt who tries to convince you that prices in her “town” continue to rise. They know *shit. They know Paula Abdul and Olive Garden. Got it? You’re losing money by holding out. You’re losing close to 2% per month for each month that you insist that your house is different. Put down the oreos and do some homework.

  18. grim says:


    GTG on Saturday?

  19. grim says:


    Be sure to point out that they are quickly running out of days before school starts.

  20. gary says:


    Sure! Name a time and place!

  21. grim says:

    Late afternoon/early evening?

    Anyone else interested in a GTG?

  22. John says:


    August 19, 2008 (TUESDAY): Dow Plunges Triple Digits; Investors Abandon Lehman and AIG
    Freddie Debt Auction
    Freddie Mac (Symbol : FRE
    can’t catch a break. The mortgage giant offered investors unusually favorable terms in an auction of $3 billion in debt today. In return for the rich terms, the company had to pay high interest rates. It offered five-year notes priced to yield 4.172%, or 1.13 percentage point above yields on safe Treasury notes. But instead of winning investor confidence, the move is prompting fear that the government will intervene to save Freddie, and its sister counterpart, Fannie Mae (Symbol : FNM and potentially wipe out investor value. Shares of Freddie and Fannie, which were down more than 20% on Monday, fell 5% and 2% on Tuesday, respectively.
    An Unholy Alliance
    Ezra Pound was wrong: July is the cruelest month—at least when it comes to the unhappy combination of inflationary and recessionary pressures. A Labor Department report released today says U.S. producer prices in July rose at their sharpest annual rate since 1981, even as the economy cooled. That translates to a seasonally adjusted rise of 1.2% in July, and a gain of 9.8% from July 2007. Meanwhile, a separate report from the U.S. Commerce Department shows construction of new homes fell 11% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 965,000 — underscoring the weakness of the U.S. economy. (For more on this news, click here.)

    A Triple-Digit Loss for the Dow
    For the second day in a row, the Dow is hit with a triple-digit loss, this time shedding just over 130 points. The financial sector takes the hardest hit after a JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst predicts that Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. will have to write down $4 billion in investments during the third quarter. Meanwhile, a Goldman Sachs analyst lowered his price target and predicted huge losses for American International Group Inc.
    A $7.4 Billion White Elephant
    Executives from Cerberus, the private equity group that paid $7.4 billion for Chrysler, insist that they will not sell the automaker. “Our job here is to run this company,” Chrysler’s chairman, Robert L. Nardelli, tells the New York Times. “Cerberus down the road will decide what strategic alternatives they intend to pursue,” he said. Cerberus executives say their timeline to turnaround their investment is 10 years. “Our market share is not really relevant this early in the game,” said Timothy F. Price, a managing partner at Cerberus. Since Cerberus acquired Chrysler one year ago, it has announced the elimination of 28,000 jobs, sold $500 million worth of assets and cut shifts and plants.

  23. gary says:

    I’m working until 7:00 PM. Early evening would be best for me. :)

  24. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    re: GTG

    Depends on time and place, naturally. Probably can’t make one, but will look for opening to attend if reasonably convenient.

  25. still_looking says:

    Mr&Mrs Still_looking can go pending sitter-status.


  26. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [17] gary

    “They know Paula Abdul and Olive Garden.”


  27. John says:

    Isn’t The Olive Garden where Popeye grows his spinich?

  28. still_looking says:

    zero hedge on top of this one re Pigfarmers/Metals.



  29. John says:

    Gold Demand Shrinks to Six-Year Low

    Don’t recall this as a 2009 BC Bob Prediction

  30. PGC says:

    #29 Strawman

    The pedantic Brits will correct you.

    Gold demand drops to 5½-year low

  31. NJGator says:

    Stu and I could potentially be up for a GTG Sat night. Might even be able to get the grandparents to watch Lil Gator too.

  32. make money says:

    Gold Demand Shrinks to Six-Year Low

    Don’t recall this as a 2009 BC Bob Prediction


    With the Shiny demand this low Why is the price holding up. Whenever you get a rally like this investors will sell shiny and chase yields.

    The fact that the price is holding up is very encouriging to me since I can’t collect rents and buy more these days.

  33. yo'me says:

    They know Paula Abdul and Olive Garden.

    Devo “Whip It”

  34. kettle1 says:


    NJ averages about $75/acre-foot of water

    see what the california rates are for desalinated water…. (approx $2,000/acre-foot)

    1 acre-foot = 325,851 gallons

    See page 5

  35. kettle1 says:

    Sorry no gtg for me, I am being paid to cause problems abroad at the moment

  36. yo'me says:

    Off to the air show in AC.

  37. Clotpoll says:

    Mikey’s latest. You can tell he’s feeling better every day:

    “The media has been having a field day over the last few years trying to spin the housing crisis. And for the longest time the media didn’t even want to admit there was a problem. Just think back about the numbers and headlines we saw coming out of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) month after month . . . telling us it was the bottom, things were turning, GREAT Time to Buy, buyers’ market and whatever else they could dream up after a few tokes on the crack pipe.

    If you think that is too harsh, remember . . . David Lereah (Liar) was fired from NAR as their Chief Economist and Chief Spokesman (Liar) because his spin was wearing thin. Now David Liar is out publicly “admitting” he lied and spun the truth. His successor Lawrence Yun is even worse.

    The Spin Factor – In any event, I am getting a bit off track – as usual. I wanted to explain a common spin in the numbers that can vary from month to month and even within one month, from area to area.

    Foreclosed Homes – This means the lender has filed a foreclosure action in court AND received final judgment. Basically, it is final, and the mortgagor has lost the home to the lender. It is official and in the deed is now in the name of the lender.

    Foreclosure Filings – This means the lender has filed a foreclosure action in court. That’s it. Nothing more. It could take weeks, months and in some cases a year or more before there is a final judgment.

    OK, so when you hear about Foreclosures being Up or Down, you need to look at both numbers. What the media will do, is spin whichever number is better for whatever message they want to get across. Rarely will you see solid reporting where they talk about both numbers and explain what each means.

    Great News – Foreclosures Down – I just finished reading an article with an upbeat headline about how foreclosures had fallen, and this was such a grrrreeat sign. OK, that makes sense, right?

    Bad News – Foreclosure Filings UP – Whoa . . . because in that same area, foreclosure “filings” had more than doubled. Here’s what this means. During the past six months, the Obama Administration has pressured banks to back off from foreclosures. Obama and his clowns monkeyed with the free markets, and the numbers of foreclosed homes dropped.

    But . . . and this is a huge but . . . now that the clowns and monkeys have no idea what to do next, the Banksters are running to court to “file” foreclosure actions. And that is why the number of new foreclosed homes fell, but the number of foreclosure filings has spiked higher.

    Once these foreclosure filings are completed, we will see the same spike in foreclosed homes.

    The Real Numbers – You want to watch foreclosure filings, and when these begin to fall, then you know we could be approaching a leveling off, that may lead to a bottom. If you are looking at foreclosed homes, you want to look at prices, days on market and absorption rates. I know that is a lot to think about, but that is the only way to get a real picture for what is going on.

    Delinquency Notices – Finally, you also need to factor in delinquency notices. I hate to confuse you, but even before a foreclosure filing, you have delinquency notices. So if you want to truly gauge what is going on, you need to factor in delinquencies. If these spike, you can expect a spike in foreclosure filings that will convert to foreclosed homes . . . but this conversion process could take 6-18 months.

    Summary – We ARE, in fact, seeing a huge spike in delinquencies as unemployment grows. This is an ugly number that tells me we are not going to see a “U” or a “V” recovery, but instead we are headed for another leg down. Beware of the next ObamaRamaLama: (1) another extension or version in the $8,000 home buyer credit, or (2) the Administration to start buying homes with or without Chinese drywall and bulldozing them, or (3) a tremendous Bankster deal that will reward the Banksters for mortgage relief or forgiveness . . . that they will burden taxpayers with.

    But one thing I can guarantee you . . . liars can figure but figures don’t lie. Delinquencies are rising. Unemployment is rising. One plus one will always equal two. And in this case it means more delinquencies, more foreclosure filings, more foreclosed homes . . . and falling home prices, which in turn will lead to more homes underwater.”


  38. Clotpoll says:

    make (32)-

    Funny; every time commodities get whacked and the pundits start calling for the death of gold, the price hangs in there.

    Gold is forming a bulletproof, iron base from which to blast through $1,000. You cannot look at the chart and come to any other conclusion. In fact, it is a classic example of basing.

  39. Clotpoll says:

    In fact, I look at the recent marginal pullback in gold as a great chance to load up again.

    Disclaimer: the twin douchebags known as Frank and bi should be your final arbiters on all investment decisions.

  40. Ben says:

    “Myron Scholes joined Robert Merton, with whom he shared the 1997 Nobel prize for economics, in calling for banks to give investors a clearer picture of their worth by providing better valuations for illiquid assets.”

    Myron Scholes? The guy who won the “Nobel” for developing a model to price derivatives. The guy who bankrupted Long Term Capital Management after he won the Nobel. The guy who is the godfather of the credit default swap. Hasn’t this moron caused enough damage. Do us a favor Myron, don’t invent a new model to price illiquid assets.

  41. Ben says:

    Gold demand? Why is it every time someone writes about the gold market, they bring up Jewelry and India? The Jewelry industry has been moving away from gold the entire time it’s tripled in price. They have nothing to do with the price of gold. Gold is not consumed. The above ground supply of gold has done nothing but increase for 2000 years. Anyone who tries to use a consumption or production model to forecast the price of gold doesn’t understand gold.

  42. Shore Guy says:


    We have been holding off on serious looking for a weekend place due to the sticky nature of the pricing, at least thus far. In the last couple of days we stumbled across a short sale in a decent town and are seriously considering whether we want to move forward or sit tight until 2011, as we had recently decided.

    Could you repost your tips for making a lowball offer most attractive? Thanks.

  43. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (42)-

    Fortunately, you’re looking at a short sale. The one hard/fast rule of these is that the seller can’t walk away with as much as .01 AUM, so you’re in luck. The seller has no financial motivation to negotiate offers up or try to do better. The only objective should be to get a contract at a decent enough price that the bank(s) won’t reject it.

    Put a number in contract form, make it as low as you think the bank might reasonably accept, and go for it.

    Talk to the listing agent first. If he seems well-versed in doing short sales, use him. If not, find yourself a buyer agent who knows short sales, and submit the offer through that agent.

    Good luck!

  44. kettle1 says:


    gold is consumed in electronics and manufacturing, but at what level i do not know off the top of my head. Some of the gold used in manufacturing and industrial processes is recovered but not all.

    Still i agree with your general premise. The consumption is small in comparison to the global supply

  45. Ben says:

    kettle, it’s not consumed. It doesn’t get destroyed. It gets recycled. Consumption might affect the price by 1% at most each year. It’s ludicrous for anyone reference gold price and consumption in the same sentence.

  46. Shore Guy says:


    In this case, the listing agent is the over-a-barrel owner, so we will acquire a buyer’s agent.

    One other question, if I might, from the banks perspective, how much better or worse is a short sale for them than taking back the property. On the one hand, they have to realize the loss right away, but on the other hand, they have the carrying costs.

    We are lucky in that we are not in love with the town, the house, the lot, etc. It is just something that has enough of the right attributes that it could work for us if the price is right.

    In terms of attaching an earnest money deposit, what % of the offered purchase price is appropriate/necessary. We could purchase the price outright but are inclined to finance a chunk of it as a hedge against a total collapse of the market. I assume that 20% down (including the deposit) is sufficient to get a serious look by the bank; is this correct?

    Thanks again.

  47. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (46)-

    That is the 1mm question these days. It depends on the bank. Tell me who the bank is, and I can try to get you inside their head.

    “One other question, if I might, from the banks perspective, how much better or worse is a short sale for them than taking back the property. On the one hand, they have to realize the loss right away, but on the other hand, they have the carrying costs.”

    Put down an amount that you are comfortable with. The bank actually doesn’t care how big your DP is. I’ve offloaded short sales to FHA buyers who- when you really think about it- are underwater the minute they sign the closing docs.

  48. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (46)-

    Nothing like an agent doing the short sale on his own damn house.


  49. snuggler says:

    What is the percentage of price drop since 2006 to present?

  50. d2b says:

    I spend every weekend at the shore and I’m seeing bad things in the RE market down there. The amount of dark condos during peak weeks is scary. The motels are not even filling up. There is a billboard on the Walt Whitman bridge advertising $99 dollars for the Borgata M-TH.

    If the Borgata is $99 the Trop should be about $29.

  51. d2b says:

    If AC can’t fill their rooms in the summer, what are they going to do in October?

    BTW, my cousins are going to Disney in two weeks. Paying about half of what it cost last year. I also heard the cruise costs are way down as well.

  52. Clotpoll says:

    Whenever I want to go on vacation, I just knock back a few Knob Creeks and take a little vacation between my ears.

  53. snuggler says:

    Total percentage the market has dropped in northern nj since 2006? Anyone know?

  54. This is quite good, thanks. It’s gonna be very useful for many.

  55. chicagofinance says:

    What just happened…what is making things go green?

  56. #56 – The oil inventory report? Lower supplies = consumer appetite for spending up?

  57. pdsnj says:

    This interesting enough as we still have a ton of arm loans getting ready to reset at the end of this year.

  58. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll says:
    August 19, 2009 at 10:18 am
    make (32)- Gold is forming a bulletproof, iron base from which to blast through $1,000. You cannot look at the chart and come to any other conclusion. In fact, it is a classic example of basing.

    clot: Is Batali in the kitchen a classic example of freebasing?

  59. Shore Guy says:


    The agent bought it in 1999 for $300,000 and it looks like he has around $600,000 in mortgages as of 2005. The kicker is that the agent states that it “needs work.” It is one thing to pull out equity to improve the structure itself but after pulling out twice what one paid for the structure the thing should be maintained to perfection.

  60. db says:

    S&P just pushed past 25 DMA….up up & away

  61. Clotpoll says:

    chi (59)-

    No, but whoever thought it would be a good idea to film him and Gwyneth Paltrow driving around Spain and kvetching with each other was freebasing, for sure.

    Mario’s not that kind of guy. Back in the day, his idea of fun was to sit at Billy’s, knock back shots of cheap tequila and ogle the ugly Russian strippers.

  62. Shore Guy says:


    Are these the same people who were optimistic in 2005 that prices would double by 2008, and then double again by 2010?

  63. Clotpoll says:

    shore (60)-

    Trust an expert to strip the most possible equity out of a property.

  64. Shore Guy says:

    As Tony Soprano said when stripping the copper etc out of some houses during a mortgage scam, “Maximum value.”

  65. NJGator says:

    Shore – just don’t buy any $60,000 Wal-Mart rugs from the seller in a separate agreement.

  66. John says:

    Back in 1991/1992 when coops were going down people used to strip them before they were foreclosed on. One coop I went with bank to see in a nice building we could not get door open. I helped the lady really push hard and got it open a crack and climbed in the damm tennant took all the fixtures, Fridge, sink and even toliet, he then dragged the huge 1967 Oven that came with apartment when new across beautiful wooden floor digging big holes in it until it got wedged in door. A 25 year old oven is worth like 20 bucks I guess this guy was mad as hell, he paid 95K in 1989 and bank was selling it for 40K three years later. Last year I saw a foreclosure which was even funnier guy stripped place and left all his garbage, even rubbed nasty rotten food on walls. Best was certain things like built ins and bathtubs he could not get out so just to spite bank he sledgehammered them sot he next person would not get them.

  67. lostinny says:

    Where’s the gtg?

  68. Shore Guy says:

    “Shore – just don’t buy any $60,000 Wal-Mart rugs from the seller in a separate agreement.”


    I don’t think we ever spent more than $6,000 on any carpet. People walk on them for goodness sake.

    When we bought our current place, we bought all the extra goodies for $1. The seller wanted some amount I don’t recall at the moment and we basically told him, “Nevermind. You go ahead and pay to move the stuff to your new house. When we do the walk through, if any of it is inthe house, the deal is off.” Bottom line, we got it all for $1.

  69. Shore Guy says:

    If anyone has a recomendation for a buyer’s agent in Monmouth county who is experienced in short sales, please e-mail me. Grim has the address.

  70. Clotpoll says:

    I’m only 49, so I don’t count in this:

    “A study from the U.S. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration released early today shows that the use of illicit drugs is growing at an alarming rate among people in the 50 to 59-year-old segment of the population. The reports says the among the age group those admitting use of “illicit drugs within the past year has nearly doubled from 5.1 percent in 2002 to 9.4 percent in 2007.”
    One of the conclusions of the research is that growing drug use among the middle aged will cause health problems that will further burden the health care system, but that may not be the most acute problem.

    Drug use is likely to curb productivity. People who are high are not usually good workers. Alcohol abuse has long been considered a major reason that people take days off. Abuse of prescription drugs is another reason. Pot and cocaine need to be added to that list. Things are getting so bad that a third of the people in the 50 to 59 year-old group may not be working at their full potential. That is a lot of people to have operating ineffectively in the work force.”

    Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

  71. chaoticchild says:

    In Summmit…….Brand new kitchen….in a good grad school area……”ONLY for 469k”

    MLS# 2707291 or http://www.loisschneiderrealtor.com/2707291

    Can someone get history or street address.

  72. Clotpoll says:

    Don Hewitt croaks.

  73. chicagofinance says:

    OT: Based on the “from” line of an e-mail, I thought I was getting a referral from someone who I had been haranguing for awhile…then I read the subject line…”Give Your Nob Real Power”…..

  74. chaoticchild says:

    Gator…Thank you. I get it now….it is in the ghetto part of “Slummit”

  75. Sean says:

    re #75 – They should have asked him if sex change operations will be covered under Obama care.

  76. John says:

    Goldman Sachs pays for than as an employee perk but only one time, if you change your mind you are SOL.

    Sean says:
    August 19, 2009 at 1:23 pm
    re #75 – They should have asked him if sex change operations will be covered under Obama care.

  77. Sean says:

    re: #79 John seems to me like you called down to HR to ask if you were covered. Something we don’t know about you, are you really Jane?

  78. NJGator says:

    Gator’s Helpful Online RE Search Tip of the day:

    If you are trying to find the address of a property you see on the MLS, and the listing includes the land/improvement assessment breakdown, you can use the advanced search function under record search at http://www.njactb.org.

    Almost always, searching by the exact breakdown parameters will bring up a single home.

  79. Clotpoll says:

    Friend of mine who owns a car dealership stopped by just now.

    She is bleeding out $$$, as she’s done a bunch of C4C deals, but when she submits the transaction info online to get paid by the gubmint, she gets nothing but a screen that says “Denied” or “Info Rejected”.

    This is happening all over the US. Dealers in SC are owed something like 27mm right now, and they are in the same boat with the denied and rejected payment apps.

    A car business lives and dies on its cash flow. So now, dealers- many of whom were at death’s doorstep pre C4C- get a flood of gubmint-induced transactions…but are going under, because the gubmint reimbursement process doesn’t work.

  80. Shore Guy says:


    Speaking of sex changes (and that is a segue few of us besides John generally get to use all that often):


  81. Shore Guy says:

    Does anyone here own a home within 100 feet of a NJT rail line?

  82. Shore Guy says:

    “So now, dealers- many of whom were at death’s doorstep pre C4C- get a flood of gubmint-induced transactions…but are going under, because the gubmint reimbursement process doesn’t work.”


    This is in keeping with the three great lies:

    1) This won’t hurt a bit

    2) Yes, I will respect you in the morning

    3) I’m from the government and I’m here to help

  83. Clotpoll says:

    Plucked her eyebrows on the way
    Shaved her leg and then he was a she
    She says, hey babe, take a walk on the wild side
    Said, hey honey, take a walk on the wild side

  84. Clotpoll says:

    Honestly, you have to wonder if C4C was cooked up to finish off loads of car dealers without having the courts jammed with bundles of franchisor/franchisee litigation.

  85. Shore Guy says:


    Sounds like a date a friend of mine had while we were traveling for a bowl game.

    Said the bartender (in the middle of a fit of laughter) to some of us who were there, as things started heating to a boil between them on the dance floor: “You might want to tell your buddy that that woman he is dancing with aint.”

  86. Shore Guy says:

    The other team had a ball with that at the combined teams dinner a day or two before the game.

  87. John says:

    I thought if I could join the GS Network of Women within a year or so I would be CEO and then could switch back.

    Sean says:
    August 19, 2009 at 1:28 pm
    re: #79 John seems to me like you called down to HR to ask if you were covered. Something we don’t know about you, are you really Jane?

  88. Shore Guy says:


    Nothing like giving one’s all for the company.

  89. Clotpoll says:

    Naah. She’s just on a bad steroid program.

  90. Clotpoll says:

    …that has rendered her half a friggin’ man.

  91. Shore Guy says:


    It reminds me of some of the Ossies back in Cold War days.

  92. NJGator says:

    UBS to divulge more than 4,000 account names
    Swiss banking giant, U.S. announce deal on the secret accounts
    GENEVA – Swiss banking giant UBS AG agreed Wednesday to turn over to the IRS the details of 4,450 accounts suspected of holding undeclared assets by American customers, piercing Switzerland’s long-standing tradition of banking secrecy.
    IRS Commissioner Doug Shulman said the accounts held $18 billion in assets at one time. Many have since been closed, he said.
    The deal will give the Internal Revenue Service thousands of long-sought account names, Shulman said, and is expected to provide even more UBS clients who voluntarily disclose their financial details to the agency.
    UBS has an estimated 52,000 accounts of U.S. customers. The IRS chief said the 4,450 accounts being relinquished to the agency were the ones most suspected of containing undeclared assets.
    “I believe this agreement gives us what we wanted — access to information about those UBS accountholders most likely to have been involved in offshore tax evasion,” Shulman said.
    He said that other account holders appear to be in compliance with U.S. tax laws.
    The two sides told a federal judge last week they had reached a tentative agreement, but the details were not released until Wednesday.
    Account holders will be notified before their names are released to the IRS. The names will first go to the Swiss Federal Tax Administration. Account holders will then be able to appeal their release to the IRS before Switzerland’s Federal Administrative Court.
    The process is expected to take several months, IRS officials said.
    Shulman said the Swiss government has assured U.S. authorities that the release of the names conforms with both Swiss banking laws and the tax treaty signed by both countries. Shulman said the IRS reserves the right to resume its legal fight if any of the names are withheld.
    “This issue is not going away, and people hiding assets and income offshore will find themselves increasingly at risk due to our efforts in this area,” Shulman said.


  93. Clotpoll says:

    Where’s the Diceman when we need him?

    Hickory, dickory, dock…

  94. Victorian says:

    NJ city considers adult curfew after crime spate

    (AP) – 21 hours ago

    PATERSON, N.J. — Curfews might not be just for kids anymore in one city in northern New Jersey.

    Officials in Paterson are considering one for people of all ages in a bid to curb violence after a spate of deadly shootings.

    Several experts say they believe it would be the nation’s first curfew of its type to include adults. The state ACLU says it would open Paterson to legal action.

    The curfew would last for two months and would bar people from loitering outside from midnight to 7 a.m. Violators would face up to a $2,000 fine and 90 days in jail.

    Officials are still working to make sure the plan can withstand legal challenges.

    If the City Council passes it Sept. 1, a second vote and a public hearing are needed for it to take effect.

  95. Shore Guy says:


    Cities have a hard enough time making curfues meet Constitutional muster for kids. Outside a riot, or similar situation, it should take about 10 minutes to get a federal judge to quash it.

  96. HEHEHE says:

    Gtg at D’jais

  97. leftwing says:

    RE: Government administration of C4C

    “So now…many of whom were at death’s doorstep…are going under, because the gubmint reimbursement process doesn’t work.”

    Preface to O’Care? Remind me why we are even considering letting these bozos run our healthcare?

  98. RayC says:

    Thank God its Friday.

    WTF do you mean its only Wednesday!

  99. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [96] gator

    Walking on my side of the street, are we???

    Wrote an article a few weeks ago on how the IRS was using the voluntary disclosure program to go on fishing expeditions for other advisors, bankers, etc., but a tax partner sat on the article for review even though I said this was time-sensitive. Today, the WSJ has an article on the same topic, so I have been mooted.

  100. HEHEHE says:

    “The worst U.S. recession since the 1930s may already be over, according to Edward McKelvey, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York.

    The gain in industrial production in July, the first in nine months, and the likelihood that output will continue to grow because of depleted inventories is “the best” signal that the contraction is over, McKelvey wrote in an e-mail to clients yesterday.”


    You notice that GS is out every other day with another proclamation about the recession being over? Make’s you wonder what they a worried about?

  101. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Yesterday, I said the rifle-toting in Phoenix was staged.

    Today, we have the admission: http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/08/18/obama.protest.rifle/index.html

    Wonder if Maddow, Olbermann, Matthews and the rest of MSNBC are now trying to spit out a hook?

  102. chaoticchild says:

    gator….thank you again. The tax record site is very helpful.

    can you tell me what “ratio” means??

    Is that mean how much is cash and how much is mortgaged????

  103. NJGator says:

    Chaotic 106 – it is the assessment to sale price ratio. Don’t even bother with it since it’s from so long ago.

    The state analyzes this ratio for all useable sales in a tax year. The average is the benchmark for challenging your assessment is you are overassessed.

  104. kettle1 says:


    are they trying to start a riot? what happens the first time they try to enforce the curfew in some of the rougher parts of town????

  105. still_looking says:


    wrt 71 (the older-addicted)

    Clot, the stuff I see would curl your hair.

    one bright spot is the multi-drug addicted jackass that all of us would avoid who is now clean. Shook their hand, commended them on their sobriety and prayed for their continued sobriety.

    None-the-less, our psych screening center is seeing record breaking numbers.


  106. Ben says:

    All my liberal friends were throwing hissy fits about the guy with the rifle today at lunch. They like to act like they are objective and unbiased but they are easily brainwashed by the media. The sites they read and the TV/radio shows they listen to are simply a watered down version of MSNBC. Oh yeah, and they stopped complaining about the wars in the Middle East in January. At least my crazy neocon friends stick to their views, regardless of how ridiculous they are.

  107. kettle1 says:


    had dinner with a friend of mine who grew up in soviet russia. He commented that he wondered when the KGB took over running the US media. He said its scary how similar the political spoon feeding is to what he grew up with in the 70’s and 80’s soviet russia

  108. PGC says:

    #108 Kettle.

    They used to have Curfews in Jersey City a few years back. They set it up to curb the violence around a stretch of Communipaw Ave.

  109. yo'me says:

    Given the huge quantity of stored gold, compared to the annual production, the price of gold is mainly affected by changes in sentiment, rather than changes in annual production.[11] According to the World Gold Council, annual mine production of gold over the last few years has been close to 2,500 tonnes.[12] About 2,000 tonnes goes into jewelry or industrial/dental production, and around 500 tonnes goes to retail investors and exchange traded gold funds.[12] This translates to an annual demand for gold to be 1000 tonnes in excess over mine production which has come from central bank sales and other disposal


  110. House Whine says:

    104- If the recession is over can somebody pls. explain to me why I am out of a job??!

  111. still_looking says:

    111 in mod… It’s an off topic garden report… I have *no* clue what triggered the mod… :P


  112. still_looking says:

    House Whine….

    At least you get counted… picture the folks working 4 days, getting paid for 3.5 and still listed as employed.

    … my MIL went to unemployment, guy there tells her not to get a PT job…. WTF???


  113. John says:

    What type of job did you have?

    House Whine says:
    August 19, 2009 at 3:41 pm
    104- If the recession is over can somebody pls. explain to me why I am out of a job??!

  114. lostinny says:

    115 House
    Welcome to the club.

  115. lostinny says:

    Go Washington Mutual!

    My Bad! Woman’s House Mistakenly Auctioned by Bank


  116. House Whine says:

    117 and 118 and 119 – I guess the part time work just complicates the unemployment computation of what she is owed; I worked in the legal field but I am not a lawyer; I don’t want to belong to this club but I know I am in good company. Apparently, my field is quite wobbly these days and the financial well-being of a firm seems to change abruptly.

  117. chaoticchild says:

    107 gator….thank you so much.

    The site is very resourceful….We were getting disappointed that the prices in Summit are coming down at all. They seem to stick to the peak price

    After researching the tax records from your site, I realized that some of these houses are listing at 15-20% above their 05-07 purchase price. No wonder that they have been sitting out there since Spring.

    Thank you again.

  118. still_looking says:

    …found it (I think)

    OT garden report:

    scant few red tomatoes – a few mealy romas unfortunately.

    bumper crop of patty-pan squash (awesome!)

    first tiny eggplant (gave it to my dad, who taught me farming)

    lush beds of oregano, thyme, chives, basil and parsley.

    a few green peppers that we are waiting to turn into nice red bell peppers.

    and a smattering of string beans and a lone swiss chard that I’m not sure what to do with.

    …time to go plant some winter stuff….


  119. Danzud says:

    #35 – Kettle1 = SAS?

  120. NJGator says:

    SL 123 – Stu’s pride of this year’s harvest is going to be home grown corn. We’re going to get about 10 ears or so and will definitely plan to grow more next year.

    And more tomatoes than we can possibly eat. I even got Stu to admin how awesome the heirlooms are – he complained for says about how “expensive” the plants were. I think they cost like $2.79.

  121. chicagofinance says:

    One of the better moments on this program in ages. It basically has slipped into the sh!tter without Ratigan and Macke…….but skip to minute 2:00 for a unintentional little risque banter….

  122. ruggles says:

    123, 125 – just went out and ate about 20 cherry tomatoes. have so many they’re going to waste. the veggies have been stellar so far this year, just waiting for the peppers to turn red as you are. but the carrots, beets and beans are producing like crazy.

    funny observation about the cost of the plants. We’re the same way, always balking at the price of a plant. Meanwhile, we have antique reproduction raised beds from New England and designer dirt infused with the finest Manhattan poo.

  123. Qwerty says:


    I grew up at the tail end of the one income era. The fathers would go off to work each morning. Moms would stay at home and take care of the house and kids. The mothers would form a safety net for each other’s sanity. They would congregate in the late morning or early afternoon. They would drink coffee and talk in one room while the kids played and wailed on each other in some other part of the house. There were no factory-like daycare centers at the time. If there were, we didn’t know about them.

    We owned one car. It was run until it was dead. Since mom did not work it was not the worst thing in the world but life was anything but convenient. Living in the suburbs with only one car can be very difficult indeed, especially with a big family. Life was simple but hardly convenient. A medical emergency could put quite a crimp on the family.

    The common necessities of today were the luxuries of yesterday. Some of today’s necessities did not exist yet. We had one television set. I believe we ended up having that set for more than 20 years. This was before cable. We received 5 channels with our roof mounted antenna. There were no microwaves yet. I think our first microwave came along right around 1980. There were no VCRs. That came along in the early 80s. We had one phone and rented that from the phone company like every other family.

    Our house was not a scene from a HGTV episode. The carpets were worn and even had holes in them. The furniture was old. When it became too dingy it did not get replaced. It got reupholstered. I cannot remember hearing anybody mention reupholstering a piece of furniture in the past 20 years. The kitchen countertops were laminate. The appliances were the run of the mill Sears variety. The floors were vinyl. The cabinets were wood and would get stripped and repainted. That was a remodeling in those days. Stripping out perfectly working cabinets and appliances and throwing them away would have been seen as nothing less than criminal.

    Dinner time was not a time of lobster and filet mignon. Our meals would always include meat but not an unlimited supply. There were often arguments and fights over how much meat each child got. My sister that did not like meat was always courted well before dinner to see who could trade her for her share. Not liking meat was definitely an asset. I can’t remember but I bet she got her bed made, or her dishes done, for her on many occasions. We ate many “hotdishes”. You might call it a casserole or a covered dish. Anything with some kind of noodle and meat in it was called a hotdish. I found many of them to be heinous. I often begged for peanut butter and jelly, in lieu of the nightly hotdish.

    We rarely ate food that was not prepared at home. McDonalds or White Castle was a great treat. A trip to Ponderosa Steakhouse was a huge bonus for us. Ponderosa was more like a Sizzler than a Bobby Vans. We did not go to restaurants that were run by the 1970s versions of Bobby Flay and Wolfgang Puck. We focused on the restaurants that offered value for the family. Once a year the whole family would pack up and go to a “nice” restaurant. By today’s standards that would have been a middle of the road dining experience.

    When I was a kid the idea of a fancy vacation never seemed realistic. I took my first plane ride at age 18. I had never been outside the 5 state area (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, North Dakota & South Dakota) before my first airplane ride. I knew there was a Disneyland and Disneyworld but I had no idea where they were located. I don’t remember caring, either.

    As the kids grew up and left the house the moms of the neighborhood went back to work. The families’ fortunes started to improve. Money was squirreled away into savings accounts. A few luxuries were added to day to day life. Being at the end of the line I got to share the easier lifestyle that the older kids had missed. By that time the house was paid off so there was definitely more disposable income and life began to reflect this fact. Second mortgages were looked upon the same way that a rattlesnake bite was looked upon. They were to be avoided at all costs. They were a sign of carelessness.

  124. NJGator says:

    N.J. hospitals paying docs more to save money
    Experiment allows dozen hospitals to break law against ‘gainsharing’

    MOUNT LAUREL, N.J. – A dozen New Jersey hospitals are paying doctors as an incentive to save the hospitals money.

    The principle is known as gainsharing, and it’s generally prohibited under federal law. But the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services are allowing tests of the practice, which doctors’ groups and hospitals alike say could help their finances and improve patient care.

    The program is intended to address a conflict in the Medicare payment system that also exists in some private insurance plans: Hospitals are paid a lump sum based on each patient’s diagnosis while doctors are paid for each service they provide.
    Story continues below ↓advertisement | your ad here

    As a result, an extra day’s stay for the patient might mean more money for the doctor while it costs the hospital significantly. At Our Lady of Lourdes Medical Center in Camden, N.J., for instance, an average day’s stay costs about $2,500.


  125. chicagofinance says:

    PGC says:
    August 19, 2009 at 1:11 pm
    I actually have to give Barney Frank some credit! http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/08/18/frank.heath.care/index.html
    “When you ask me that question, I’m going to revert to my ethnic heritage and ask you a question: On what planet do you spend most of your time?” Frank asked.

    PGC: Supposedly on Limbaugh today, he said that Frank had been spending much of his time near Uranus…..

  126. lostinny says:

    For the whinos, eh connoisseurs
    Have you heard of Block 213 Merlot? I had a bottle last year. I found it in Tampa. I have not been able to find it since. Has anyone seen it and if so, where? Has anyone had anything else from this winery- I think it’s Vineyard Block Estates from Napa?
    Thanks for any info.

  127. lostinny says:

    It may be St. Helena Estates, I’m not sure.

  128. snuggler says:

    What percentage has northern jersey real estate come down since 2006? Anyone know?

  129. Comrade Nom Deplume says:


    We just had two tomato plants, and did nothing with or to them except hold them up and water them occasionally, and they are producing a lot of tomatoes, but still all green and most are still kinda small.

    It was my 6YO’s “garden” so it doesnt much matter to me. But having some nice homegrown tomaters would be nice.

  130. still_looking says:

    Gator 126

    We got a late start I guess….then there was the hail storm that mutilated the leaves on all the plants plus our kaffir lime trees, fig trees and our orchids that were outside…

    Corn is great! As a kid we tried a 4 by 4 planting and got maybe 4 or 5 useful ears. There’s this weird gray worm that ate thru the rest.

    Heirlooms are great! I’m even happy with a giant red luscious beefsteak sliced on a plate with just salt and pepper…. maybe next year will be better.

    I still love fried green tomatoes though, too!

    With the exception of the Bronx, I have almost never lived anywhere that I didn’t have a garden :)


  131. still_looking says:

    Gator, 129

    Ah, yes. Brings to mind stories that “cannot be told here.”

    Remind me to tell you sometime.


  132. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Lost 119 YOU OUT OF WORK?

  133. lostinny says:

    Mike 136
    It’s a long story. Email me.

  134. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Got it.

  135. Another putrefying shoot:

    “In Manhattan, commercial real estate office sales reach standstill.

    Only three Manhattan office buildings worth more than $30 million were sold in the first half of year, as buyer and sellers failed to agree on pricing and credit stayed tight, according to a report by real estate services company CB Richard Ellis Group Inc(CBG).

    “Buyers are seeking distressed pricing,” said the report released on Tuesday. “Owners do not want to sell at distressed pricing, and lenders have largely withdrawn from the market.”

    “When the CMBS market shut down, that really shut off the financing mechanism that allowed a lot of these large transactions to get done,” Enoch Lawrence, senior vice president, CBRE Capital Markets, said in a statement.

    The three sales compare with an average 32 seen in the first half of the past five years, the report said. Sales of office buildings valued at more than $30 million, fell to a total of $767.5 million in the first half of the year, 91 percent off the five-year average of $8.2 billion.”

    Another trill about to circle the drain.


  136. LIke the Spanish don’t have enough problems of their own, now they want to catch financial cancer from us:

    Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) — Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA of Spain was selected to take over assets of ailing Texas lender Guaranty Financial Group Inc. in a U.S.-assisted transaction, said people familiar with the situation.

    “The acquisition, arranged by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., would mark the second of a U.S. bank by a Spanish lender. Banco Santander SA, Spain’s biggest lender, in January acquired Philadelphia-based Sovereign Bancorp Inc., once the second- largest U.S. savings and loan. BB&T Inc. last week acquired Colonial BancGroup Inc. in a deal also arranged by the FDIC.

  137. Every day can be bank failure day!

  138. yo'me says:

    #132 132.snuggler says:
    August 19, 2009 at 6:02 pm
    What percentage has northern jersey real estate come down since 2006? Anyone know

    This my help


  139. veto that says:

    You are persistant.
    and repetative.
    You will go far in life.

    25% correction since 2006 peak
    According to Case Shiller – NY Metro Area.

  140. yo'me says:

    Williams sisters to own part of Dolphins


  141. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    I heard those Barney Frank quotes this morning. First, I think Barney Frank is a complete @ss. Having said that, I found his comments more than appropriate. While I think the entire pre-screened “town hall” charades need to end he was more than in his right to put that wacko in her place. If the right-wing types have anything to complain about it should be the quality of their demonstrators not anything Barney Frank said.

  142. yo'me says:

    143 my = might

  143. veto that says:

    im going to drop the political grenade and say the public health push was all to get votes from immigrants.
    At first i was all for it but then when i saw how sneaky it was presented, i was glad they couldnt get it passed.

    Barney Frank is too much. The gays love to fight for some reason. I guess they get really hot and horny and have short fuse. My college dorm room was across the street from a gay bar. There was a fight every fri sat night guranteed.

  144. kettle1 says:

    any of you finance gurus want to comment on denniger today???

    Note that the PDs (that’s the big banks that deal directly with The Fed) took basically all of the auction, and they were willing to loan all that money to the Treasury at an annual interest rate of 0.145%.

    That is essentially zero.

    So what is it that these big primary dealers see happening (or more importantly, have been told and thus know will happen) in the next two months that leads them to think parking $22 billion of money with Treasury at zero interest will provide them with the best possible return on their investment? Oh, and they bid for nearly 5x as many bonds as were sold too…..


  145. yo'me says:

    Investors Returning to Treasuries for Safe Haven

    With systemically important parts of the banking system backstopped by the government, investors are prepared to take on a bit more risk when they flee stocks.

    Instead of running to shorter-term Treasury bills, which yield a paltry 0.2 percent, they are prepared to bet that government note and bond yields compensate for the risk of inflation.

    For the past three months, the 10-year yield, which moves inversely to its price, has shuttled between about 3.25 percent and 4 percent. That 4 percent level seems to serve as a magic number for benchmark notes, judging by buying patterns in the market over the past two months.

    Since inflation pressures are muted or nonexistent amid the most severe U.S. recession in decades, “you are getting real yield in Treasurys north of 3 percent,” said Haag Sherman, co-founder and managing director of Salient Partners, a Houston based investment firm.

    That scenario is creating a broad range for the 10-year note between 3.25 percent and 4 percent, which may become a central feature of bond markets through year-end and perhaps well into 2010, analysts said.

    As it becomes clearer any U.S. economic recovery beyond the end of this year will be sluggish, “you will see a significant degree of risk aversion and the Treasury market will benefit from it,” Sherman said


  146. stan says:

    Brown shoots?

    “RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Something unusual is cropping up alongside the tomatoes, eggplant and okra in Scott Byars’ vegetable garden — the elephantine leaves of 30 tobacco plants.
    Driven largely by ever-rising tobacco prices, he’s among a growing number of smokers who have turned to their green thumbs to cultivate tobacco plants to blend their own cigarettes, cigars and chew. Byars normally pays $5 for a five-pack of cigars and $3 for a tin of snuff; the seed cost him $9.”


  147. njescapee says:

    Investors Snapping Up Downtown Miami Condos


  148. sas says:

    “Investors Snapping Up Downtown Miami Condos”



  149. SG says:

    The Greenback Effect

    IN nature, every action has consequences, a phenomenon called the butterfly effect. These consequences, moreover, are not necessarily proportional. For example, doubling the carbon dioxide we belch into the atmosphere may far more than double the subsequent problems for society. Realizing this, the world properly worries about greenhouse emissions.

    Unchecked carbon emissions will likely cause icebergs to melt. Unchecked greenback emissions will certainly cause the purchasing power of currency to melt. The dollar’s destiny lies with Congress.

  150. sas says:

    “Investors Snapping Up Downtown Miami Condos”

    ha ha..

    next you will tell me, undercover agents never got set up at the Piccadilly Circus.

    better take notes u undercover cops out there. you guys are the first ones to be set up…. so don’t love your master.


  151. sas says:


    off topic. but I was in Ramapo park earl in the morning the other day about 5am.

    I saw 2 coyotes. looked like a big male, and smaller female. They were about 20 yards away.

    Beautiful creatures.

  152. Kettle1 says:


    watch any small children or pets around them…….

  153. chicagofinance says:

    146.Dissident HEHEHE says:
    August 19, 2009 at 8:22 pm
    I heard those Barney Frank quotes this morning. First, I think Barney Frank is a complete @ss. Having said that, I found his comments more than appropriate.

    He: no credit to Limbaugh for going lowbrow…

  154. Firestormilk says:

    kettle1 says:
    August 19, 2009 at 9:36 am

    NJ averages about $75/acre-foot of water
    Shouldn’t be that bad, but now I understand my friend’s $200/month water bill moved to Tampa area in 2007. And yes, his house lost ~40% of value since than :( Plus that 20% off he got from the peak. Lennar price was $375K in 2005, he got it for $305K. Last short sale next door came at $160K! And it’s 4br/2bath ~ 2400sqft ranch without basement. And it’s built with pretty good materials (new code in FL)

  155. sas says:

    “watch any small children or pets around them”

    yup, my local veterinarian at Oradell Animal Hospital tells me, if I go jogging in Ramapo to carry a little air horn.

    but, i’m not worried. i like to see them. and after having a few Punji sticks back during the tour…whats a coyote? :P


  156. leftwing says:

    Re: Right wing wacko demonstrators

    Let them have their day. It’s actually quite humorous watching Left politicians’ responses. Looks of total befuddlement – “Hey, this is our playbook, not yours. You guys are supposed to just sit their and take it. We are the shrill ones.”

  157. sas says:

    someone just emailed me from the boards asking if I wear camouflage? or if I recommend buying camo?

    i am not sure if the person was serious or being silly.

    but I will give you an honest answer.

    i wear camo everyday. but, its not military camo. My camo consists of nice pants, clean & pressed button shirt with a straight gig line. Thats my camo.

    Trust me, the best camo you can wear are slacks and a tie. No one will ever see you coming.

    so, thats my answer.

  158. Stu says:


    There is a coyote running round Montclair.

  159. sas says:

    “There is a coyote running round Montclair”

    i hope some knucklehead decides to turn on the spotlight and does a little poaching. no reason for that.

    if anything, game & parks should maybe do a trap and relocate.

    maybe i will trap it myself and relocate myself. not sure if there is a law against that? I better ask around first.


  160. sas says:

    about that coytote in Ramapo…

    i think i know where they may nest.
    i tracked some scat & a random cat collar (someones outdoor cat must of been a midnight snack),
    and it lead me to some pushed & patted down grass, near a little bit of open space, before a tree line. so, i have an idea where they might call home.

    but, i ain’t going to show anyone the location. Its my little secret, as I don’t want some moron to do something to those little guys.


Comments are closed.