From the Record:
Though the economy has shown signs of improvement, the region’s employers are in no hurry to hire, according to a new survey.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey found that only about 9 percent of employers in the New York metropolitan area, which includes North Jersey, expect to hire more workers during the fourth quarter of this year. About 12 percent are expected to reduce payrolls, and most of the rest expect to maintain their current employment levels.
…
Peter Weigang, manager of Manpower’s office in Wayne, said the employment market is awash in well-qualified job seekers.“I’ve been doing this for 12 years, and this is the highest number of qualified professionals I’ve ever seen,” he said.
…
“Employers are really taking their time looking at the talent that’s out there because there are so many people available and companies are tight with their budgets,” Weigang said. “They want to be absolutely positive they’re making the right decision when they hire someone.”
Frist
Barney Frank wants Cabinet post
A Year After Meltdown: Tough Questions, Choices
Without easy credit, what does life hold for a nation of consumers?
With nest eggs broken, will older workers need to rethink retirement?
With old institutions gone — and the government propping up others — what will replace them?
”We are finding that most homeowners just think of this (the collapse of the bubble in home prices) as a temporary glitch,” said Robert Shiller, a Yale University economist and a leading expert on the housing market and the dynamics of decision-making. ”They seem to think it’s going to go up again. This idea that we’re running out of land and this is a good investment is still a popular view.”
Some consumers will be so chastened by what has happened that even if they have the capacity to return to old ways, they’ll continue new patterns of spending and savings. Others may not have a choice.
In a survey by the National Association of Colleges and Employers in May, fewer than 20 percent of the new graduates who applied for a job said they actually had one, down from 51 percent a year earlier. Young adults have remained among the most optimistic, with some seeing a chance to explore differenteconomic paths. Applications to the Peace Corps are up 16 percent.
Economists say the U.S. will have to re-examine policies that have kept the value of the dollar high. A strong dollar keeps the cost of imported goods low for home consumers even as it drives domestic manufacturing overseas. The nation may have to rethink its reliance on cheap imports and abandonment of many manufacturing jobs.
From the Record:
Jobs shift from factory to finance
When Patrick Malone saw unemployment looming in 1969, he didn’t mull his next move for long.
He returned to the Ford automotive plant in Mahwah, where he had worked in the late 1950s, first as an assembly line worker and then a supervisor.
“The auto industry was doing extremely well, and it was a good place to work,” said Malone, 75, of Mahwah. “It wasn’t by any means an easy job. But on average they paid a little more than some of the other jobs in the area. It always had a bright future.”
…
Yet just over a decade later, the Ford plant – one of North Jersey’s biggest employers, with 3,300 workers – closed. It was replaced by a 22-story hotel and office complex that soon housed mortgage bankers, Realtors and corporate powerhouses like Sharp Electronics.
…
That year, New Jersey’s manufacturing sector reached a post-war employment peak of 900,000 workers, or almost two out of five jobs in the state. Today, manufacturing accounts for just 270,000 jobs, or one in 10.
“It was definitely the end of an era,” said James W. Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University. “Basically, offices are now the factory floor of the new economy.”
Also interesting from the piece above:
In 1969, Malone’s job at Ford, where he initially made Fairlanes and later light trucks, gave him a pretty good hold on the American dream. The car giant’s reputation was still strong, and Japanese competitors were just beginning to emerge as a threat.
Malone earned $8,000 a year, lived in a four-bedroom house and his wife, Joan, stayed at home to care for their four children.
“We enjoyed ourselves,” said Malone, a former gunner’s mate in the Navy. “We traveled a little bit in the United States.”
His annual salary matched the average for Bergen and Passaic counties: about equal to one-fourth of the cost of the average home.
But four decades later, as the North Jersey cost of living has risen, the average salary in the two counties is $54,000 – roughly one-tenth of the price of the average home.
WaMu: The forgotten bank failure
From the NYT:
Greed Is Bad, Gekko. So Is a Meltdown.
Last Tuesday afternoon, a black Cadillac Escalade arrived at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in Lower Manhattan, built in the 1920s to resemble the Renaissance-era palaces of Florence, Italy. From a rear seat stepped a man in a cashmere sweater and dark slacks.
“This is where the money is,” he said, borrowing the words of Willie Sutton, the Depression-era bank robber. “There is more gold here than anywhere in the world.”
Look out, Wall Street: Oliver Stone is back.
This is familiar terrain for Mr. Stone: his father was a broker, and his 1987 film, “Wall Street,” became emblematic of an era of excess the filmmaker thought was fading, but in fact was only beginning. Now he is here to make a sequel, to capture greed on celluloid all over again, set against the backdrop of the financial collapse that began with the fall of Bear Stearns.
Job Creation Down 35%, Consumer Spending Down 33% From Year Ago
On this Labor Day, inquiring minds are reading Gallup Economic Monthly: Job Creation Not Happening.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/09/job-creation-down-35-consumer-spending.html
That should be good enough for another 2% run-up on the S&P
“Improving economic data including slowing job losses have been heralded by financial markets as green shoots of economic recovery, but UNCTAD poured cold water on the optimism.
Chief economist Heiner Flassbeck said the markets had been fuelled by financial speculation that in turn was driven by expectations of recovery.
“But anticipation of recovery is just a fiction, it is not there,” he added.
The UNCTAD report noted rather: “Tumbling profits in the real economy, previous over-investment in real estate and rising unemployment will continue to constrain private consumption and investment for the foreseeable future.”
“Against this background, global GDP growth may turn positive again in 2010, but it is unlikely to exceed 1.6 per cent,” it added.”
http://business.watoday.com.au/business/world-business/current-market-rebound-not-a-real-recovery-unctad-20090908-feld.html
His annual salary matched the average for Bergen and Passaic counties: about equal to one-fourth of the cost of the average home.
But four decades later, as the North Jersey cost of living has risen, the average salary in the two counties is $54,000 – roughly one-tenth of the price of the average home.
As stated here many times, this is the real and permanent crux of the problem, lack of true affordability, without indentured servitude.
Man U: subprime team, subprime financing.
Can’t wait until they’re in administration, getting docked 30 points and sent down to League 2:
“Quite a few replies to my first blog criticised me for my decision to stop going to Old Trafford after the Glazer takeover, with this one being my favourite:
“Daniel, please stop using the word ‘we’ when discussing Man Utd. You lost that priviledge [sic] when you gave up your support for nothing more than an owner change. An owner who despite creating a massive debt (which they are paying off) has done nothing but give SAF free reign to do as he pleases and in doing so brought an s-load of trophies. Get over yourself and stop embarrassing ‘us’. We don’t miss your type.”
Initially, I resisted the urge to reply in terse terms, but this past week I’ve got to stop chastising myself for my uncharacteristic reticence in illustrating why I’m right.”
[snip]
“United is jointly owned by two companies. In the last financial year, one of these – Red Football Limited – lost around £26.5m! Now I’m not a frequent user of exclamation marks, but I think you’ll agree that astonishing fact merits one, and here’s another. Red Football is a wholly owned subsidiary of Red Football Joint Venture, whose accounts for 2008 show a deficit of £42.7m!
During that period, United won the league and the European Cup. Yes, despite enjoying their most successful season in a decade, the club lost money – lots of it. Essentially, most of what it makes, plus a load it doesn’t make, goes to pay off the interest – not capital – on the debt incurred by the Glazers in buying it in the first place. In a convenient quirk of the financial system that has served us so very well, they’re permitted to borrow from the banks to acquire United, before using the assets of the club – gate receipts, player sales, telly money, merchandising, television rights and the rest – to pay them back.
But still it gets worse. In 2013, the club will have to find £75m to pay off the debt, plus interest on the amount still outstanding, and £150m for the next three years after that, also plus interest, making the total amount of senior debt £575m. £425m of that is secured against the assets and undertakings of the Manchester United Football Club, even though the loan was made to Red Football.
And that is not all. There are also some very cute pay-in-kind (PIK) notes, the compound interest on which rolls up in its tidy, rounded, lovable way, at 14.25%. These are carried by Red Football Joint Venture. As of last month, the total amount of debt attached to these is chilling at the £205m mark, and by maturity in August 2017, it’ll have gently nosed its way up to a simply delectable £597m. Don’t you just love Glazernomics?
Making the kind of money needed to service this debt is utterly unforeseeable, although if United were able to negotiate their own television deal, that would help a bit. But there’s no way a majority of league members would ever accede; breaking the collective sale agreement would increase the gulf between the very top and the rest (although maybe they’d mind less if in exchange they got a competition with no relegation).”
http://blogs.soccernet.com/ontheroad/archives/2009/09/a_point_of_interest_and_princi.php
Malone earned $8,000 a year, lived in a four-bedroom house and his wife, Joan, stayed at home to care for their four children.
I wish I could afford to have my wife stay home with the kids. The American dream of the 50s is gone.
Gold up and the dollar down big time this morning. Can only mean 1 thing, RALLY TIME!!!
The planned wholesale destruction of the dollar continues according to plan.
“The American dream of the 50s is gone.”
So if we force women out of the workforce and segregate blacks, we’ll all be happy again.
12.
Gman,
nostalgia pays off like a hastily made investment. Instead of dwelling on a history you never had any part in, ask yourself what others will look back on today and miss, and do everything you can to never let that thing go.
2.SG says:
September 8, 2009 at 6:17 am
Barney Frank wants Cabinet post
Shail: I read this as a means for his sexual gratification….
It dawned on me over the weekend; America has become one big cover version… a remix of the original… a mere watered down copy.
17. Gary
or to put it another way,
an Elvis impersonator minus the irony.
#17 – a remix of the original… a mere watered down copy
There is nothing left other than the idea, stolen and now being sold back to us.
#6 SG
I worked out that WaMu left about $200K on my closing table.
Mortgage Market Bound by Major U.S. Role
Classes of Borrowers Cannot Find Loans as Publicly Backed Debt Mounts
Nearly one-third of those who obtained home loans during the boom years of 2005 and 2006 couldn’t get one today, according to mortgage industry analysts. Many of these borrowers were never really able to afford their homes and should not have gotten loans. But many others could, and borrowers like them are now running into tougher government standards.
At the same time, taxpayers are on the hook for most of the loans that are still being made if they go bad. And they are also on the line for any losses in the massive portfolios of old loans at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which own or back more than $5 trillion in mortgages.
There is growing evidence that many loans being guaranteed by the government have a significant risk of defaulting. Delinquencies are spiking. And the Federal Housing Administration, another source of government support for home loans, is quickly eating through its financial cushion as losses mount.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/06/AR2009090602033.html?wprss=rss_business
First of all there are lots of jobs for “workers”. There are no jobs for pampered princesses. Example. In the go go 2004-2007 period lots of companies had flex time, employer of choice, diversity initatives etc. Bosses were told make it work. We also need managers to manage new people so promotions were easier to come by. Now to get promoted you need to be as clean as the pope, work as hard as a slave and be a political animal. Back in 2005 the new hire policy was take their pulse hand them a laptop and give them a badge.Flash forward to 2009 and laid off workers with no MBA, no certification, no real work experience who expect flex time, work from home, no selling job, no OT jobs, no stress and six figures as that is what they are used to are SOL, and I know lots of them. Is that a problem, I think not. It is the normalization of the job market.
Last week I got three job offfers emailed to me from friends who are HHs, all wanted people with solid experience with MBA or CPA who are workers who can work overtime, have managed people and have a solid understanding of GAAP and SEC rules. Guess what the six sigma BS with a short skirt days are over. You got to work for the money honey.
http://www.prisonplanet.com/un-calls-for-bank-of-the-world-new-global-currency.html
I wonder what the translation for this is.
yikes from prev thread:
from jamil
“Barbara: Most voters (~70%) are happy with their current health plans. Of the uninsured, large portion are illegal parasites or their legal anchor babies.
i thought we only had to deal with this guy during the months leading up to an election? love how he rattles off info as if it is fact.
sounds like a couple republican radio windbags i’m vaguely familiar with …”
I agree that my facts are more in line with radio hosts than with you (or with State Media).
As for the 70% are happy with current plans, see for example here:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052970204313604574330442429438938.html
By SCOTT RASMUSSEN
“There’s also the reality that 74% of voters rate the quality of care they now receive as good or excellent.”
“The most important fundamental is that 68% of American voters have health-insurance coverage they rate good or excellent”
Yes, yikes, there are facts and “facts” from State Media. No wonder O is collapsing. Not even State Media can save him anymore. All he has left is State Media, race hustlers and low IQ morons.
#16 ChiFi
Secretary of the Posterior…?
“The American dream of the 50s is gone.”
[12],
Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio?
The 50’s may be gone but we are back to the 70’s.
Lovely day to be a Maine-iac.
All Hype[13],
Yep. However, wait until the predetermined outcome does not surface. Unintended consequences.
Increased savings will make the U.S. less dependent on foreign capital, he said. Americans saved 6 percent of their incomes in May, the highest level since 1998 and up from zero in April 2008. The rate fell to 4.2 percent in July, in line with the average over the past 20 years.
“The U.S. is not going back to the old model of growth,” where Americans used borrowed money to buy foreign goods, said Kind. “The new growth model will be more export-led. From that point, the narrowing in the current-account deficit will begin, which is positive for the dollar.”
King is “overweight” the dollar, meaning he owns a greater percentage of assets denominated in the currency than is contained in benchmark indexes. The median estimate of 33 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg is for the greenback to end 2010 at $1.40 per euro.
Bond yields may also help the dollar. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yielded an average 3.34 percentage points more than the Fed’s target rate for overnight loans between banks during the last three months. Whenever the gap approaches 4 percentage points, U.S. debt becomes “hugely” attractive to foreign investors, according to Alan Ruskin, head of currency strategy at RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUzQTB9klLmM
That is why I love watching Mad Man at 10pm on Sundays. Love the kids in no car seats while Dad drunk as a skunk drives Pregant mom back for a party while they all smoke cigs. Love it.
I am very big into predeterminism. It is so easy to relax once you capitulate into there is nothing you can do about it.
BC Bob says:
September 8, 2009 at 9:24 am
“The American dream of the 50s is gone.”
[12],
Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio?
The 50’s may be gone but we are back to the 70’s.
Lovely day to be a Maine-iac.
This is a first: at starbucks, wasting $3.71 and the newbie had to look up how to make my drink.
Also: “breakfast for buisness purposes”
still_looking from prev thread:
“Yes, end is near. Jamil and I agree.”
It’s wonders what 8 months of Obama and social1st expirements can do. I’ll give yikes another 6 months and he is ready to agree with me, too.
BTW the 8K a year that Ford guy made in the 1950’s with four kids and a stay at home wife is most likely possible today. Remember, they were teenie little capes two bed up two bed down. All original no dishwasher, AC or dryer. Lux was a washing machine, one bathroom and heat. Transporation was one used american car with no theft or collision. Dad did Blue collar work and brought his own lunch and had no need for suits. Kids went to public school and rode their used bikes they bought with their own paper route money. Traveling America ment a trip in the old wagon with some tents and ham sandwiches.
John (32)
I totally agree with you. I’ve been crib shopping the last few weeks. I’m blow away how babies now have complete matching bedroom ensembles, including armoires, nightstands, dressers, fancy headboards/footboards.
My kid isn’t even born yet and she’s already getting lined up to have furniture better than I had up to my late 30’s. I look at this stuff and it doesn’t even look like something a kid would like. My wife and I just said to hell with it, we’re not spending all that money.
“His annual salary matched the average for Bergen and Passaic counties: about equal to one-fourth of the cost of the average home.
But four decades later, as the North Jersey cost of living has risen, the average salary in the two counties is $54,000 – roughly one-tenth of the price of the average home.
As stated here many times, this is the real and permanent crux of the problem, lack of true affordability, without indentured servitude.”
Confused. i agree but this anectdotal example is flawed. He is one person. Also, he earned “more than most” during his younger years with ford in 1960s. These days he is (1) old and (2) not experienced in the financial field. So it makes sense that his salary is lower than most.
I agree with the message here that income/prices have gone too far. I wish there was a better way to prove it.
Can anyone find Avg Household income for NJ every ten years starting in 1940? That would be a huge help to do a proper price/income ratio..
I have the data for the NE going back to 1975, posted here the other day but its not perfect for obvious reasons.
Gary 17 – America as Old Wave Night? does it come with $1 well drinks?
Mercer County Comp Killer:
MLS ID #5528247
21 Wayne Way, East Windsor, NJ 08520
5 Bed, 2.5 Bath 2,969 Sq Ft on 1.11 Acres
Bought Aug 2004 for 446,000
Asking price today: 389,800
13% discount from Aug 2004
i’d like to see more of these…
Even crazier the free section of Craigslist has all that stuff for nothing. All you really need new is the crib matress.
X-NJ says:
September 8, 2009 at 10:36 am
John (32)
I totally agree with you. I’ve been crib shopping the last few weeks. I’m blow away how babies now have complete matching bedroom ensembles, including armoires, nightstands, dressers, fancy headboards/footboards.
My kid isn’t even born yet and she’s already getting lined up to have furniture better than I had up to my late 30’s. I look at this stuff and it doesn’t even look like something a kid would like. My wife and I just said to hell with it, we’re not spending all that money.
Is it just me or do Hindu’s generally don’t say God Bless you after you sneeze?
Happened twice in last week. Not even a gesununtite.
“I wish I could afford to have my wife stay home with the kids. The American dream of the 50s is gone.”
“So if we force women out of the workforce and segregate blacks, we’ll all be happy again”
Undoubtedly there are women who derive immense personal pleasure from being in the workforce. For most families, however, that predominance of the second earner did not raise the standard of living for more than the short term as markets corrected to the increase in combined household income.
That is a primary reason house prices moved from 4x annual salary to 10x over the generation.
re: #2 – So Barney Franks n Beans is just pitching his book due out next month.
“Barney Frank: The Story of Amerca’s Only Left-handed, Gay, Jewish Congressman.”
John (22)-
Perhaps you missed the memo that said you can’t rebuild an entire economy on bean counters, MBAs and quants who produce nothing but debt and paperwork.
When the education bubble finally blows apart (which should be any day now), virtually no one will be able to obtain the type of education needed to get the jobs you’re talking about.
And, quite frankly, most of those jobs SHOULD go away. Forever.
Reading this board it sometimes it seems that many don’t feel we actually have to make things anymore. Instead we should all dedicate our education and lives to learning how best to pretend we made things and manage the money earned from these ventures. Don’t forget, we also have to educate our own children, grow our own food, perform our own medical procedures, and make sure no one takes a cent of our “money” because we never spend more than we earn and it is darned hard make pretend money.
Thanks Clot (41):
I have given up.
11:05a Fed buys $4.95 billion in Treasurys
BC (26)-
Too bad we won’t get to see the current regime try Nixonian price controls.
Man, those were good times.
John,
I dare you to read this:
http://tinyurl.com/john-shouldnt-read-this
An interesting article about the upcoming film “Wall Street 2”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/08/movies/08stone.html
“What’s more, accounting rules now require that school districts amortize these costs and post them on their books as a liability each year. Whitefish Bay, like many other school districts, became worried about how to meet these liabilities.”
Interesting item from Stu’s article. I’m an idiot layman, but why are they required to report their liabilities and banks aren’t? So pensions are the big boogeyman now and it’s not because of situations like the one described above, but because civil servants are sucking the life blood out of us.
grim, #5
In 1969, I applied for a scholarship.
My father made $12,000 as a postmaster – $10,000 after tax.
And that was considered a good salary.
The era of inflation in the 1970’s did a real number to the value of money.
#24 –
“There’s also the reality that 74% of voters rate the quality of care they now receive as good or excellent.”
“The most important fundamental is that 68% of American voters have health-insurance coverage they rate good or excellent”
And what percentage of that 74%/68% of happy voters get their health insurance via Medicare (the government) or federal government employee plans?
“Doesn’t a massive federal deficit mean we’re spending much more than we produce?”
Absolutely. That’s the beauty of it — you get to spend money like a drunken sailor even though you’re on a drunken sailor’s salary.
“Won’t investors stop lending to us altogether at some point?”
This is America. Governments, corporations and individuals in this country and around the world are lined up around the block waiting patiently to throw money at us. Since the queue’s end isn’t even visible from here, there’s no reason to believe it actually has an end.
“Don’t sound principles of personal finance dictate that it’s unsustainable for an individual to continue borrowing and spending more than he earns?”
Yes. In short order that person’s credit rating will fall, which will require him to pay more to get additional credit. At some point — and it won’t be long — lenders will refuse to provide any more credit. If he isn’t able to increase his income to meet his debt service obligations and other expenses, he’ll go bankrupt.
“Wouldn’t the same thing happen to a government that borrows and spends more than it produces?”
Yes.
“So, doesn’t that mean the same thing will happen to the US Government?”
No. The economic realities applicable to individuals and other governments don’t apply to the US. This phenomenon is what’s known as the economic component of American Exceptionalism.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/grand-debt-illusion-faqs-about-national-debt
”We are finding that most homeowners just think of this (the collapse of the bubble in home prices) as a temporary glitch,” said Robert Shiller, a Yale University economist and a leading expert on the housing market and the dynamics of decision-making. ”They seem to think it’s going to go up again. This idea that we’re running out of land and this is a good investment is still a popular view.”
I can’t believe that 3 years into this crash we are still in the denial stage.
THIS is why I am avoiding the housing market.
Scribe…And check out the car prices in 1969.
http://www.allpar.com/model/prices/1969.html
The only insurance worth a damn right now is in being well-armed, being ready for intruders on the perimeter and being handy with daily base survival skills (cooking, gardening, hunting, etc).
soosh (52)-
Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.
HL Mencken
lisoosh:
“And what percentage of that 74%/68% of happy voters get their health insurance via Medicare (the government) or federal government employee plans?”
I don’t know, but O proposed $500B cuts in Medicare too. If you believe it doesn’t affect Medicare, I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn. Anyway, the point is that if ~70% of voters are happy with their current plans (whatever plan that is), this “reform” is both politically dangerous and clearly not acute enough to justify spending trillions, bankcrupting the country, nationalizing 1/6 of the economy and ordering government controlled health care rationing to everybody (except top-politicians).
Referenced in a column by Doug Kass today:
“Before all else, be armed.” — Niccolo Machiavelli
there’s a story on NPR now about a traffic ticket blitz in NJ over the weekend …
The Dollar’s Fate
I think the housing bust has already bust for blue ribbon NYC commuter towns . One or two houses I checked out in March of 2009 have sold for more than I thought they would and have been replaced by crappier houses for 50K more. We could have reached a point where prices stagnate or rise slightly less than inflation.
Stu I read that article and they are fat as a house in Wisonconsin they could us less money out there so maybe they wouldn’t eat too much.
Stu,
when I started college in 1972, my weekly grocery bill was $10 …and I ate well!
Behind Florida’s Exodus: Rising Taxes, Political Ineptitude
* 60 We could have reached a point where prices stagnate or rise slightly less than inflation.
That is a pipe dream on your part.
#52
Lisoosh, I hear that type of thing all the time from co-workers. As in, “I don’t want to sell right now anyway, I’m going to wait until the market comes back”…
You have to wonder if Ms. Sonders has been banging Dennis Kneale…or eating stupid pills…or huffing glue.
Ladies and gentlemen, the “square root-shaped recovery:
http://tinyurl.com/lkrw5u
http://www.capitalismalovestory.com/
I guess I’m probably late in posting this?
sl
“I don’t want to sell right now anyway, I’m going to wait until the market comes back”…
More than anything this behavior delays the crash, but it buys time. Lots of time.
My mother is doing this right now. And she is stubborn and has a strong balance sheet so she can wait thirty years no problem for the market to stabilize, or until inflation kicks in.
As a potemtial buyer waiting on the sideline I cant think of anything more annoying.
I also think John has a point.
Case Shiller has NY Metro down 22% since peak. But look at the inner cities like newark, trenton, Camden, Paterson. They probably took twice the hit of the stronger towns with better schools. Also, take out the super ritzy towns, they are getting slammed too.
So the question is, What percentage have the middle-end towns corrected? I bet its much lower than most of us assume… more like 10-15% from peak.
Many of the weak subprime borrowers have been laid off, defaulted and shaken out by now. They were part of the bubble economy and should probably not have been owners anyway. So now we are left with more stable homeowners in these communities. Plus banks have stabilized for now and they are sitting on a lot of properties. Unless they reinstate MTM, its going to take another huge disruption and market calamity to crash home prices further. And the politicians have already flushed our future growth down the drain in order to stabilize the crisis.
In all likelihood we’ll see the rest of the correction happen slowly over the next ten years and we won’t notice it because of inflation.
oh well. Im kind of disapointed but sick of renting anyway. Will probably wait it out another month or two and then pull the trigger.
This prediction is all just a guess on my part.
veto 67
“so she can wait thirty years no problem”
Your mother may be able to do that, but people tend to die, divorce or relocate all the time and the house ends up on sale.
X-NJ says:
September 8, 2009 at 10:36 am
John (32) I totally agree with you. I’ve been crib shopping the last few weeks. I’m blow away how babies now have complete matching bedroom ensembles, including armoires, nightstands, dressers, fancy headboards/footboards.
X-NJ: be careful with new furniture that contains particle board, glue etc. Also solvents and paints that contain VOC etc……lot of crap that is in the $100-$1000 range that is expensive, yet built like toxic NJ landfill, and is bad for developing respiratory systems….
I sound like a complete a-hole, but buy an organic mattress, not one with a vinyl coating…..
Apologies if this was posted pvsly.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6146957/China-alarmed-by-US-money-printing.html
left: good economic analysis – long-term supply/demand curves….
leftwing says:
September 8, 2009 at 10:56 am
“I wish I could afford to have my wife stay home with the kids. The American dream of the 50s is gone.”
“So if we force women out of the workforce and segregate blacks, we’ll all be happy again”
Undoubtedly there are women who derive immense personal pleasure from being in the workforce. For most families, however, that predominance of the second earner did not raise the standard of living for more than the short term as markets corrected to the increase in combined household income.
That is a primary reason house prices moved from 4x annual salary to 10x over the generation.
Clotpoll says:
September 8, 2009 at 11:04 am
John (22)- When the education bubble finally blows apart (which should be any day now), virtually no one will be able to obtain the type of education needed to get the jobs you’re talking about.
clot: only the full charging wannabe schools are in trouble…the top will always be oversubscribed, the bottom will take share from the middle….the one real destruction can be catalyzed by a cutback in Federal Programs…..
the one = the only
Re: NJ Ticket Blitz
This past weekend I didn’t see it, and we were up & down the Turnpike & 195 yesterday. Not much police activity to be seen.
The weekend before we took our daughter back to college over the same route….and it looked like a cop convention !!! The troopers were in their best hiding spots, and they were chasing ’em down and writing. I thought it was just the end of the month frenzy to make quota.
[55] clot
My other favorite Mencken quote is “the only way a reporter should look at a politician is down.”
In truth, I have adapted it for use ON reporters.
Wait a second!!!!
Didn’t the Democrats and Chairman O castigate McCain for suggesting this very thing?????
“Outline of Proposed Health Care Tax Credits Circulating on K Street
An outline circulating among lobbyists Sept. 8 suggests new details of possible tax credits for individuals and small businesses that may come from the six Senate Finance Committee members negotiating a health care reform package.
Small businesses could be eligible to receive credits of as much as 35 percent for tax years 2011 and 2012 if they have fewer than 25 employees and average wages below $40,000, the outline said.
For individuals and families, tax credits would be available on a sliding scale for those with incomes between 134 percent and 300 percent of the poverty line. Beginning in 2014, the credits would be refundable and advanceable and the amount of the credit would be based on the cost of health insurance premiums as a percentage of income.
Employers with more than 50 full-time workers would be required to share responsibility for health care coverage by paying a fee for each employee who receives a tax credit for insurance purchased through an insurance exchange. The fees would be based on the amount of the tax credit, but would be capped at an amount equal to $400 multiplied by the total number of employees at the firm. The calculation would not include employees participating in a welfare-to-work program, workers with a disability, or children in foster care, the document said.”
[75] fiddy
Learned back in da day that cops, particularly those on routes leading to college towns, will ramp up enforcement so as to, ah, enhance, public safety (and a coincidental effect on revenues don’t hurt none either).
Drove back from N.E. yesterday and saw very little trooper activity. Just one unmarked Crown Vic on the Mass Pike. No marked cars at all over the entire trip (in fact, I thought that a bit weird).
“people tend to die, divorce or relocate all the time and the house ends up on sale.”
Jamil,
Divorce, Death and Disease – this is attrition.
Its occuring at the same pace as ever before.
Not saying all these people will be able to hold out successfully. Its the change in mentality that is significant. They are digging their feet in, preparing for a stand off that could last 10-20 years.
As a potential home buyer, i dont want to wait 10-15 months.
Clotpoll says:
September 8, 2009 at 1:02 pm
You have to wonder if Ms. Sonders has been banging Dennis Kneale…or eating stupid pills…or huffing glue.
Ladies and gentlemen, the “square root-shaped recovery:
clot: way more rational that you profile it….
that = than
veto that says:
September 8, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Jamil,
Its the change in mentality that is significant. They are digging their feet in, preparing for a stand off that could last 10-20 years. As a potential home buyer, i dont want to wait 10-15 months.
vito: then you should be out there now; rates are not going to go lower; people will pull property soon and wait until March; “attrition” as you describe it, is a constant through the passage of time
““attrition” as you describe it, is a constant through the passage of time”
yep exactly my point.
We’re ready to buy and feel like the worst of the crash is behind us.
Submitted two offers in the last two months and we came within $20K on both.
Of course inventory went to hell this summer so our search has become more difficult but its only a matter of time now.
Re: Cribs, kid furniture, etc…
We got our baby furniture at Lakeland in Wayne. Prices, service, and quality were what sold us on them.
We ended up with a very nice furniture set that will grow with her when she gets older. And it matches our house, so really we never have to buy furniture for her again. We got a twin sized bedframe, headboard, armoire, crib, 3 drawer dresser (which is used for a changing table)
I guess I should’ve given the cops credit for knowing it was back to college weekend.
They had a major clue with all those cars and their college decals on the rear window, packed to the gunwales with dorm supplies.
What a great sendoff for Graydon or Monica….seeing their father lick a trooper’s boots to get out of a ticket !!!
Tax talk of all things, from the Football Maestro of Montclair (no, not Gator, then it would be Maestra). And, yes, he got a dig in against his adopted home state of Noo Joisy:
“Now onto your email:
• NFL EXPANSION TO EUROPE WON’T WORK. From Mike of San Antonio: “You may be right about the NFL expanding to Europe, but here’s a prediction: It will be as successful as baseball/basketball has been in Canada. The tax implications just weigh too heavily on prospective free agents and teams in cap-controlled payrolls. If you were a free agent ready to sign a $10-million-a-year deal, would you rather sign it in Texas and pay 35 percent in total income taxes or somewhere where you pay 60 percent in taxes? That’s a lot of lost take-home pay.”
That won’t be the reason why football works or doesn’t in Europe. Chris Canty went to the Giants in free agency and will be taxed out the wazoo in New Jersey; I spent time with Canty and his agent during his free-agent deliberations, and I never heard them once mention taxes. Not saying it’s a non-issue, but my experience is players don’t eliminate the Raiders and Chargers and Giants and Redskins because of taxes.”
[85] Fiddy
That’s where the MPA (Mass. Police Association) sticker in the back window came in handy.
We got out of that ticket, and truth be told, I got out of HUNDREDS of dollars worth of tix (in 1980s dollars), among other things, by dropping Daddy’s name and rank.
It ain’t fair, and I do not condone it, but if cops let other cops (and thier kids) skate, then so be it, I’ll skate.
And the one time a trooper wasn’t impressed (and was in fact infuriated by the mere suggestion), it turned out I knew the magistrate, so that ticket also wound up in the circular file.
My sister gave me an old crib and I still have the matress. It is plenty organic, there is poop, pee, vomit you name in on that old matress. Do you want it?
chicagofinance says:
September 8, 2009 at 1:15 pm
I sound like a complete a-hole, but buy an organic mattress, not one with a vinyl coating…..
” This idea that were running out of land and this is a good investment is still a popular view”
I just returned from MO, IA, NE, and KS and I can assure you that we have pleanty of land.
Veto,79
How do you explain “real” unemplyment rate of over 20%? How about “prime” deliquency rates? Option arms scheduled to reset? rememeber those negative arms?
It’s hard to keep making pmnts on any underwater property with stupid taxes when you’re not making what you’re entitled to.
I agree that since May we have been stabilizing but I assure you there is a lot more pain to come.
If you don’t think so then feel free to make an agressive offer and buy something.
Obama Says New Tax on Sugary Drinks Worth ‘Exploring’ (Update1)
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Nicholas Johnston
Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama said he is willing to consider taxing soda and other sugary drinks as Congress debates overhauling the U.S. health-care system.
“I actually think it’s an idea that we should be exploring,” Obama said in an interview with Men’s Health magazine that goes on sale next week. “There’s no doubt that our kids drink way too much soda.” “But they better not be taxing my kool aid, that stuff is da bomb baby”.
[89] Shore:
I just returned from MO, IA, NE, and KS and I can assure you that we have pleanty of land.
Don’t have to go nearly that far, Shore. Anyone who wants to bet the cost of AvGas that there’s no land to build houses within 50 mi. of NYC is welcome to take a sightseeing flight with me.
*79 They are digging their feet in, preparing for a stand off that could last 10-20 years.
There is no standoff that will last 10-20 years. That is just silly.
From the Soviet Republic of Montana;
WASHINGTON (AP) — A top senator is calling for fines of up to $3,800 on families who fail to get medical insurance after a health care overhaul goes into effect.
The plan from Democratic Sen. Max Baucus of Montana would make health insurance mandatory, just like auto coverage. It would provide tax credits to help cover the cost for people making up to three times the federal poverty level. That’s about $66,000 for a family of four, and $32,000 for an individual.
But those who still don’t sign up would face hefty fines, starting at $750 a year for individuals and $1,500 for families. The maximum penalty on individuals would be $950.
Baucus is hoping his plan can win bipartisan support. A copy of his proposal was obtained by The Associated Press.
Make,
Unemployment doesnt seem to be as important as it was. We’ve seen recently that high rates of unemployment are almost a good thing – keeping company profits high over the short term. Especially in an economy where we dont manufacture anything and have no factories. I realize its not good long term but the guvt will pump the economy up and then as the last phase, they will focus on employment and giving tax breaks or whatever for jobs.
Also, lots more banks will fail, but they will be small banks and the large acquiring banks will mark the assets down like they should have been made to do in the first place and then the system will slowly strengthen. Banks will continue to work with borrowers to stay in their homes. FDIC will run out of money and they will magically print some more. We are good for it. At least for now.
The next wave of arms and delinquency rates are a problem that will keep prices down but the guvt has demonstrated that they will do whatever to keep it propped up so if you are looking for a 40%-50% collapse in home prices, you might not see that.
We did bid aggresively over the last two months and came close to making a deal. We are not looking for 2001 pricing but we just want to avoid paying the 2005-07 prices and many sellers are still dillusional so we wait for the right deal as well as the right house.
I could be wrong about this. im no re bull. I still think prices will come down some more but slowly.
Dont forget, im in Central NJ. Moved down here 3 yrs ago from NNJ. The taxes and prices are not as overblown as NNJ and the jobs arent as dependant on wall st so we might be talking about two different realities. Before i took a job down here, i had a 450k contract on a 4/2 colonial in cranford – 10K taxes. That same home is $75-100k less with taxes that are 1-2k less in a similar community down here.
*79 I guess you are just leaving out the almost 10% unemployment rate too.
http://www.maltzauctions.com/auction_detail.php?id=116817
I guess they are still making land
“There is no standoff that will last 10-20 years. That is just silly.”
LTLV,
Again, this is their mentality. “if i dont get my price, i’ll just stay put. It makes no sense to sell for that amount of money. etc etc.”
Its the mentality im pointing out. Im not saying they’ll be able to do it.
*95 Unemployment/Employment is ALWAYS important. I do not understand how you can say that. Also I think you are way over analyzing.
Anon E. Moose says:
September 8, 2009 at 2:13 pm
“Don’t have to go nearly that far, Shore. Anyone who wants to bet the cost of AvGas that there’s no land to build houses within 50 mi. of NYC is welcome to take a sightseeing flight with me.”
I noticed that actually on a flight out of Newark. Within a couple of minutes, all you could see below were trees. Quite astounding.
I’d be up for a free sightseeing trip anytime though.
“I guess you are just leaving out the almost 10% unemployment rate too.”
How much of this is being offset buy guvt prop-up programs? Lets say they give 20k to any home buyer and ensure 5% interest rates, do you really think 20% unemployment will matter?
Heck, i would buy two homes myself under those conditions.
“I think you are way over analyzing.”
Maybe, im no expert. just my opinion.
Some more to chew on in the health care debate.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Parents who bring their kids to Dr. G. Andrew McIntosh for the chicken pox vaccine are out of luck.
The family physician, who has a solo practice in Uniontown, Ohio, doesn’t offer that shot because he can’t afford it. Most insurers won’t sufficiently cover the cost.
“It doesn’t do me any good. I am losing money on [them],” he said. The chicken pox vaccine runs about $115, but insurers only cover between $68 to $83 of that. . . . . .
Although he says he “feels compelled” to take care of people, he adds, “I can’t save the world and pay for my staff,” he said. “As we say, ‘no margin, no mission.'”
This sort of thing led to similar “shortages” in the early 80’s when manufacturers decided to stop producing money-losing vaccines amidst a raft of litigation. It lead to the “Vaccine Act” whereby manufacturers that keep producing vaccines get limited lawsuit protection in exchange for a very low unit tax that goes into a fund to compensate “victims” who can take a payout in exchange for waiving the right to sue.
In a related vein, we may see entire practice areas of physicians essentially go “on strike” by shutting off access to patients until they get tort reform. Thus, I see this model as one for the medical industry, which will get some level of tort reform in exchange for a modest tax.
In the end, it will be bad for the trial lawyers and groups that oppose them. Since they are essentially litigators, they will have to find new industries to attack, and this cycle will repeat itself.
I also find it slightly ironic that the two constituencies that will be most harmed by this are core democratic constituencies (trial lawyers and victims).
Nice looking site you have – are you having fun with it? It’s interesting and well worth the time to visit.
“Democratic Sen. Max Baucus of Montana would make health insurance mandatory, just like auto coverage”
Unfortunately, in the real world illegal aliens won’t have auto insurance so you are on your own once illegal hits you or your car.
Why would they buy any health insurance either even if they could? It is much cheaper just to show up in ER and demand taxpayer provided translator and world-class treatment.
These 10-20 million parasites are the biggest challenge here anyway. Legal residents end up paying for them in every scenario so the only solution would be denying treatment for them (as 80% of voters prefer). Even majority of dem voters support that, it is just the hard-core lunatic left controlling WH and congress who are in favor of this. 2010 elections can’t come soon enough to kick these extremists out of congress.
Re 104 there is no point having a chicken pox vacine. First of all it won’t kill you. Second of all people who had chicken pox, including me, are much more likely to die of shingles if they are not reintroduced to chicken pox during their life time. When people who had measles are reintroduced to the virus their body is better capable of fighting off shingles later on. So if all four grandparents and both parents had chickenpox and every kid/grandkid gets the chicken pox vaccine you have just greatly increased the chances of dying from shingles yourself and for your parents and your inlaws to die from shingles.
Stu (53)
I’ll take the GTO convertible for $3,365 please
Sigh, kids these days, this one sends mom out on to the freeway to beg for money for his college tuition.
http://www.boston.com/video/viral_page/?/services/player/bcpid21962023001&bctid=37891981001
*101do you really think 20% unemployment will matter?
In an word yes,and totally unsustainable.
Chi (69)
My inlaws kept the bassinet that my wife was in when they brought her home. New mattress and paint job and viola, we have a new bed for the baby for at least a few months.
After that, I’m cleaning out one of my dresser drawers and the baby can use that
Apologies if this has already been posted:
Boston’s Incredible Shrinking Skyscraper
The Hancock Tower lost half its value in a year. The rest of commercial real estate could be next.
For most of its 34-year life, the Hancock Tower, which looms above its brick neighbors in Boston’s Back Bay, has been the sort of place where money comes to be managed and protected. Its tenants include Ernst & Young and the investment firm Highfields Capital. The I. M. Pei–designed sliver of glass doesn’t seem like a place where several hundred million dollars can vanish in a few months.
But that’s exactly what happened at the 62-story building, now under its fourth owner in six years. In January, an aggressive young wheeler-dealer defaulted on a portion of the building’s $1.3 billion mortgage just 24 months after buying it. In March, two firms that had purchased chunks of the tower’s second mortgage for pennies on the dollar assumed control, essentially rendering up to $400 million of debt worthless. The Hancock’s market value is now about $700 million—half what it appraised for less than two years ago.
Scott Lawlor, the entrepreneur who was forced to concede control of the Hancock Tower, has been called a “poster boy for everything that went wrong,” as one well-placed real-estate expert put it. But the trim, straightforward executive is more like a whipping boy. For the tale of the Hancock Tower isn’t a morality play, or an example of a bubble-era rise and fall. Rather, it’s an omen. During the credit boom, the same forces that led to $600,000 subprime loans on tract houses in Modesto, Calif., spurred billions of dollars of reckless lending on urban office towers and suburban strip malls. As a result, the nation’s offices, hotels, and malls now carry about $3.5 trillion in debt. Three years after the housing market peaked, falling rents and rising defaults—no surprise given the economy has lost 7 million jobs since December 2007—are posing a new threat to the still-fragile banking system and could inflict billions of dollars in fresh losses. The Hancock Tower was one of the first high–profile deals to go sour—but it won’t be the last. The Blackstone Group, one of the nation’s leading private-equity firms, has written down the value of its mammoth real-estate portfolio by an average of 45 percent from the original cost. General Growth Properties, a pioneer shopping-mall developer that carried $27 billion in debt, filed for Chapter 11 in April.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/214840
“Anyway, the point is that if ~70% of voters are happy with their current plans…” blah blah blah.
They’re happy with their plans until they submit a large claim. Most people haven’t had to do this (yet).
For your sake, I hope you or someone close to you won’t have to go through this and you can continue your blissfully ignorant blathering unabated.
111.
Meter
yep
re #53- re: #107 – 1969 Z/28 Camaro
By Adding $458 to the $2,726 base price of a Camaro coupe you get the upgrade to the Z28 Camaro including F41 handling suspension and for the first time from Chevy four-wheel disc brakes.
The solid-lifter 302-cid V-8 with an 850-cfm four-barrel carburetor was Listed at only 290 Housepower but actually tested on the Dyno at close to 400 horsepower.
Apologies if this has already been posted:
Boston’s Incredible Shrinking Skyscraper
The Hanc*ck Tower lost half its value in a year. The rest of commercial real estate could be next.
For most of its 34-year life, the Hanc*ck Tower, which looms above its brick neighbors in Boston’s Back Bay, has been the sort of place where money comes to be managed and protected. Its tenants include Ernst & Young and the investment firm Highfields Capital. The I. M. Pei–designed sliver of glass doesn’t seem like a place where several hundred million dollars can vanish in a few months.
But that’s exactly what happened at the 62-story building, now under its fourth owner in six years. In January, an aggressive young wheeler-dealer defaulted on a portion of the building’s $1.3 billion mortgage just 24 months after buying it. In March, two firms that had purchased chunks of the tower’s second mortgage for pennies on the dollar assumed control, essentially rendering up to $400 million of debt worthless. The Hanc*ck’s market value is now about $700 million—half what it appraised for less than two years ago.
Scott Lawlor, the entrepreneur who was forced to concede control of the Hanc*ck Tower, has been called a “poster boy for everything that went wrong,” as one well-placed real-estate expert put it. But the trim, straightforward executive is more like a whipping boy. For the tale of the Hanc*ck Tower isn’t a morality play, or an example of a bubble-era rise and fall. Rather, it’s an omen. During the credit boom, the same forces that led to $600,000 subprime loans on tract houses in Modesto, Calif., spurred billions of dollars of reckless lending on urban office towers and suburban strip malls. As a result, the nation’s offices, hotels, and malls now carry about $3.5 trillion in debt. Three years after the housing market peaked, falling rents and rising defaults—no surprise given the economy has lost 7 million jobs since December 2007—are posing a new threat to the still-fragile banking system and could inflict billions of dollars in fresh losses. The Hanc*ck Tower was one of the first high–profile deals to go sour—but it won’t be the last. The Blackstone Group, one of the nation’s leading private-equity firms, has written down the value of its mammoth real-estate portfolio by an average of 45 percent from the original cost. General Growth Properties, a pioneer shopping-mall developer that carried $27 billion in debt, filed for Chapter 11 in April.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/214840
109- Agreed. From my vantage point (I am unemployed) there is no way my family would embark on any large purchase or investment right now. The psychological impact of being down one income is not something I would wish on anyone.
LTLV,
Over the last 2 years, total unemployment shot up 12% points to 20% and home prices barely corrected – maybe 10% in solid towns.
In an extreme scenario, if unemployment shoots up another 12% points to 32%, then i guess its logical to expect another 10% price correction.
doesnt seem so bad to me.
Even Grim was expecting a 30% correction peak to bottom when this thing plays out – and that seemed extreme to many. I agree with a 30% correction. What kind of crash are you expecting?
We are already down 22% overall. the other 8% will probably happen but it will drag out slowly over a number of years. I dont believe we’ll see anything more extreme than that going fwd.
“September 21, 2005 at 2:34 pm
grim says:
My estimate, at this point in time, given what I’ve seen and know, is that housing prices in Northern NJ will fall upwards of 40% in the next 5 years. No, I didn’t screw up on the math, you read right, 40%.”
Grim’s initial prediction was 40%. Then he clarified that he never meant 40% – he always predicted 30%.
With the Case-Shiller data for this area suggesting a peak-to-trough decline of around 20%, grim is going to be forced to clarify his prediction again.
Lukerd:
22% inflation adjusted is 34%.
Maybe he was speaking in real inflation adjusted terms?
Anyway, we are all entitled to our predictions, and have the right to adjust them as the facts change…
Are you saying that 20% is the total price crash for NJ and we are going up from here?
#67
“But look at the inner cities like newark, trenton, Camden, Paterson. They probably took twice the hit of the stronger towns with better schools. Also, take out the super ritzy towns, they are getting slammed too.
So the question is, What percentage have the middle-end towns corrected?”
******
this is right on. upper tier has gotten slammed due to lack of bonuses and difficulty of getting jumbo loans. lower tier has gotten slammed due to absence of subprime. the $500-800k range has not moved much at all in comparison.
Sean says:
The solid-lifter 302-cid V-8 with an 850-cfm four-barrel carburetor was Listed at only 290 Housepower but actually tested on the Dyno at close to 400 horsepower.
Z-28’s back then had a nascar style cross-ram dual quad manifold with two 4’s.
I was standing next to one at a car auction once when it started up and I got a chubby
Skep, to add to it…
The consumers have been hit hard, knocked off their horse.
Job market has tightened, all of the sudden corp america isnt throwing money at employees just because they have a bachelors degree.
So now, it becomes more appealing to rid yourself of the 700k albatros and downsize into a 400K cape or ranch, simplify your life.
Less demand at the top, but some of that demand shifting to the middle. back to basics i guess that fits the theme.
#116
“We are already down 22% overall. the other 8% will probably happen but it will drag out slowly over a number of years. I dont believe we’ll see anything more extreme than that going fwd.”
Agree. I believe this is the big down year, next year will be down too, but much less so. After that, flat for several years.
* The declines were just as extreme in the early 90’s, why they would not be just as extreme now, makes no sense.
Manipulation can only go so far.
And why the rush for the enslaving ball and chain of property taxes?
In the end I expect declines to bottom out at 40%, and than flat prices for years.
Sean says:
The solid-lifter 302-cid V-8 with an 850-cfm four-barrel carburetor was Listed at only 290 Housepower but actually tested on the Dyno at close to 400 horsepower.
Check out picture 4 on this…dual quads
http://www.rmauctions.com/CarDetails.cfm?SaleCode=MO08&CarID=r175
Veto– also, the couple that would’ve bought a $1.0-1.5m starter house before now does not have the big bonus nor can they get a zero down jumbo I/O loan. So they are looking in the 800k and below range too. Renovated houses on quiet streets in towns with good schools in that price range are not staying on the market long at this point. People are paying maybe 15% off peak.
What is strange is that the houses just above them in price are far, far nicer, but because jumbo financing is so much harder to get, the buyer pool for the houses around $1m is much smaller, so there is an inventory glut.
John, #91
re Obama on taxing sugary soda
There’s lots of organized opposition to all of the proposed soda taxes, Federal and state. I’ve signed several of the Freedomworks petitions – the ones where they automatically plug in your elected rep’s either Federal or state.
What surprised me – for once, I got a detailed response from Schumer:
Thank you for contacting me to express you opposition to the idea of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages, such as soda. I share your concern about the rising tax burden borne by average, middle-class New Yorkers.
In May, members of the Senate Finance Committee floated a proposal to tax sugar-sweetened beverages at a rate of $0.03 per 12 ounces. However, the proposal was met with considerable opposition and is no longer being considered by the Finance Committee. Moreover, the House’s health reform bill, H.R. 3200, America’s Affordable Health Choices Act, does not include a soda tax. Therefore, at this time, it seems unlikely that such a proposal would make it into the final reform bill.
Again, thank you for contacting me on this important issue. Please do not hesitate to contact me again if I may be of assistance to you on this, or any other, matter.
Sincerely,
Charles E. Schumer
United States Senator
*125 There are simply not enough people out there who can afford 800k houses with $15 000 or 20 000 or more a year in property taxes.
You and Veto are depressing yourselves for no good reason.
This has to be one of the biggest to go to the Sheriffs Sale
762792 10/02/09 14 SHINNECOCK TRAIL FRANKLIN LAKES 3602854.78
I had to check the judgment to see if it was a bad listing
I loved the horsepower back then. When I was 16 I brought my Mom’s 1971 Buick Estate Wagon to school which had a 455 CI engine and dual exhaust sporting a posi rear. JC I did a monster spin out dounut that became a figure eight where I was pinned to the drivers door. When you have the shifter on the steering wheel and plastic bench seats the steering wheel gets ripped from your hand when you turn left and floor it at same time. Another car I had with brown bucket seats must of had those seats brown for a reason, going from zero to 100 mph from a standstill on bias belt tires and drum brakes is a little scary.
X-NJ says:
September 8, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Sean says:
The solid-lifter 302-cid V-8 with an 850-cfm four-barrel carburetor was Listed at only 290 Housepower but actually tested on the Dyno at close to 400 horsepower.
Z-28’s back then had a nascar style cross-ram dual quad manifold with two 4’s.
I was standing next to one at a car auction once when it started up and I got a chubby
The reason most who can buy 800K houses are not buying 800k hourse is they are POS houses. You still need to break 1.1 million to get a great house and that extra 300K really pushes it out of reach. So if the difference between a 500K and 800K house is not big enough to trade up why do it.
LTLV says:
September 8, 2009 at 4:00 pm
*125 There are simply not enough people out there who can afford 800k houses with $15 000 or 20 000 or more a year in property taxes.
You and Veto are depressing yourselves for no good reason.
*129Be that as it may to a small degree.
Let me explain again for you. Now this time listen carefully.
There are simply not enough people out there who can afford an 800 000 house coupled with the grueling property taxes.
[117],
What was your call in 2005? By the way, what was your logon at that time? My call was 30-40% off peak, nominal.
This bust has a long way to go. For the first time in history, borrowers were fed money based on the ability of the borrower to sell debt rather than the borrower’s ability to pay. Unfortunately, the unwind will take years and years. For those that are impatient, too bad. Either step up and buy or accept it for what is is; Chinese water tortue.
We will retrace the entire delusional gains that preceded this bust. Markets have performed in this manner for thousands of years. This market will not be the exception.
John (128)
Looking at the tires, seats, and safety equipment on even that Z-28, I’d be hesitant to take it over 100mph…total death ride. Great fun for burnouts, etc. though. I remember literally standing on the brake pedal to get my old Lemans to stop.
129. John
This has been my observation as well. You will get some yard and square footage for the 300K, but all the finishes are the same and the yard is just more work and more taxes. Why bother?
RE: magnitude of home price declines
The 2009/2010 Alt-A resets are still on the way.
Mortgage delinquencies are skyrocketing.
Increasing unemployment combined with zero industries to “get us out of this mess” — no manufacturing, no dotcom bubble, no easy financing/credit available, etc, etc…
There is more pain on the way.
Peak to trough, we will see 40% declines.
I would cook the entire pound of bacon and eat it and eat all 6 ice pops for dinner.
chifi, I believe that you owe Santa an apology
I am very big into predeterminism. It is so easy to relax once you capitulate into there is nothing you can do about it.
John (29), predestination is a Protestant doctrine. you are a Catholic.
RE: “I loved the horsepower back then.”
That’s because you’re driving a used 528 instead of a used 540.
Actually, my family used to be in the employment of the king of england and when King Henry was in charge he made half my family Protestant. Better Protestant than a headlwess cathoic I am an OG/Old School Protestant street wise MF who got in on ground floor. However, we jumped out of the gang and are back running with the Catholics.
kareninca says:
September 8, 2009 at 4:56 pm
I am very big into predeterminism. It is so easy to relax once you capitulate into there is nothing you can do about it.
John (29), predestination is a Protestant doctrine. you are a Catholic.
I still have my old 450sl in the garage it has a V8 but the German cars in general have good top speed, but a plain old V8 mustang is better at smoking it up than a 540.
Qwerty says:
September 8, 2009 at 4:59 pm
RE: “I loved the horsepower back then.”
That’s because you’re driving a used 528 instead of a used 540.
John,
“The reason most who can buy 800K houses are not buying 800k hourse is they are POS houses. You still need to break 1.1 million to get a great house and that extra 300K really pushes it out of reach.”
You are so right. In lower-upper tier towns that I’ve been looking in, 800k only gets you a newer 4br/3.5 ba with large rooms, and possibly a 5th br. And that’s after bargaining hard – they list higher.
Houses only start to get more interesting above 900k, where there are some big houses, but generally without much land, or in compromized locations. Have to get over 1.1mn to start getting house plus land in good towns. And these are towns I would say are not well-located for everyday commuting to NYC.
The big gap between these tiers is that people had to have acquired that $300k – $600k the hard way – by earning an extra $500k- $900k, paying taxes, and then saving what’s left.
Pretty much anybody seems to qualify for $500-600k mortgages these days with low fixed rates. It’s the cash in the bank plus home equity stacked on top that determines who gets to “buy” (i.e. rent from the local tax assessors until their kids go off to college) the most desirable homes in attractive towns.
Veto,
It looks like you are trying to talk yourself into buying a house. You know you are wrong, but you are trying hard to make yourself comfortable.
Credit Suisse {paraphrasing},
AIG, common; little or no value.
I test drove the new SS Camaro. Great motor. But the horsepower felt unusable when you compare it with a BMW. Also the suspension was just OK. The Camaro felt like a car that someone could easily die in.
here is my favorite pay cut story. unfortunately it’s my husband’s, but it’s very funny anyway. of course his employer is giving no raises this year, and (very) unfortunately there have been layoffs. but also, extra work that in the past one could do to earn an extra sum, is now expected to be done for free. fair enough.
however, the $750 that my husband would ordinarily have gotten for doing X, was not entirely unacknowledged! instead of the money, he was given an embossed paper box which looked to have been repurposed from holding an organization mug. inside the box were four sugar cookies! in a plastic baggie! wow, they were great cookies. not vegan, I fear, but very tasty.
Beginning in 1984 the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) started tracking car occupant death rate and found that the rate for sports cars is nearly twice as high as for average cars.
For 1984-1988 models, here are some statistics. (At that time, the death rate was measured in deaths per ten thousand.)
Corvettes: 4.7 deaths per ten thousand
Mustangs: 4.3 deaths per ten thousand
Camaros: 4.3 deaths per ten thousand
Firebirds: 3.2 deaths per ten thousand
RE: felt like a car that someone could easily die in
That could make for interesting ad copy…
“The all-new Camaro, like a car that someone could easily die in.”
Yo’….they keep innovating….
WSJ
Gold-Backed ETF to Launch in U.S. as Demand Surges
By CAROLYN CUI
With gold briefly touching $1,000 a troy ounce, a new bullion-backed exchange-traded fund is entering the U.S. market to capitalize on demand from investors wanting to hold a piece of the precious metal.
The ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares will start trading on the New York Stock Exchange ARCA on Wednesday. It will be the third gold-backed ETF in the U.S. The fund will track spot gold prices by backing each share issued with one-tenth of an ounce of physical bullion stored in Switzerland.
Concerns over a stock-market pullback and a declining dollar have sent prices soaring of precious metals and the investments that track them. Gold also is profiting from a flight into hard assets amid inflationary fears, as central banks have pumped billions of dollars into economies to revive growth. Investors have flocked to ETFs backed with the physical metal. Some other gold ETFs use futures contracts, in which there could be counterparty risk if someone fails to honor the contract.
Globally, gold ETF holdings have surged 42%, or 16 million ounces, since the beginning of 2009, according to UBS. The ETFs now hold a total of 54.23 million ounces of gold, close to last year’s total world production.
Partly due to the increase in ETF demand, gold prices hit a six-month high Tuesday and settled at $997.90 a troy ounce, up $3, or 0.3%, on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. It hit $1,006.90 during the trading session, exceeding gold’s record close of $1,003.20 hit in March 2008.
The interest in physical-commodity ETFs also reflects increased scrutiny by commodity regulators in the U.S. of the heavily leveraged ETFs that hold commodity futures. Regulators worry that excessive speculation might distort commodity prices. ETFs that hold actual gold and silver aren’t part of this debate.
The new product marks the latest charge into the U.S. market by ETF Securities Ltd., the London commodity ETF provider. In July, the company launched a silver-backed ETF and quickly increased its assets to more than $130 million.
However, it will face competition in the U.S. gold market, which is dominated by the $34.7 billion SPDR Gold Shares, sponsored by the World Gold Council, along with iShares Comex Gold Trust, a $2.4 billion fund that BlackRock recently acquired as part of its Barclays Global Investors deal. The new fund offers a slightly lower expense ratio of 0.39% than its U.S. rivals, both running at 0.4%.
The British company will hold its gold in Switzerland, which is “probably one of the most independent countries in terms of political influence,” said William Rhind, head of sales and marketing for ETFS Marketing LLC, the marketing arm for ETF Securities.
“With regards of terrorism, war and all sorts of extreme events, the feeling is that Switzerland is probably the safest venue to store gold,” Mr. Rhind said. Gold holdings in Switzerland have increased over the past 18 months, leading some vault-service providers to scramble for storage space, he said.
More New Jersey in the national scene. . .
“The American Academy of Actuaries, the public face of a behind-the-scenes profession, is in disarray after quietly sacking its incoming president, then trying to conceal both his ouster and an unpleasant secret from his past.
The president-elect, Bruce Schobel, is one of America’s foremost authorities on the Social Security system. He is also a onetime convicted felon who, according to court records, served time three decades ago for “assault with a dangerous weapon while demanding property” in New Jersey. Few know this, though, because his record has been expunged. . . . ”
Hmmmm. “assault with a dangerous weapon while demanding property.”
In every other state, that is considered robbery. In New Jersey, it’s haggling.
Chi[147],
Where do they obtain the physical to back the ETF?
[147] chifi
I think that, deep down, Mr. Rhind also considers “extreme events” to include Acts of Congress.
Bost: I think we have to wait until tomorrow. I can’t get anything yet. As soon as it is free to trade, there should be disclosures.
re: #149 – ask Bob Rubin.
Chi[147],
Where do they obtain the physical to back the ETF?
Boost,
I haven’t been contacted yet!!!
Just a call out to the IT/Systems folks online.
JB is actively seeking new projects or a new FT position.
My background is in software project management and systems architecture. My last few years have been spent in client-facing roles.
15 years experience in software/IT (In numerous roles from programming, development, architecture, requirements/documentation, project management, program management)
MBA Finance
MS Software Development/Management
Backgrounds in Legacy systems extensibility/integration, SOA/Web integration, CRM, Fulfillment/Supply Chain, Systems/Process Automation, and BPO/Outsourcing.
Yes we can :)
http://www.newsday.com/long-island/suffolk/wreck-room-man-crashes-jeep-into-2nd-floor-of-house-1.1424237
And no, I wasn’t laid off. :) Simply looking for new challenges.
want to manage people or work alone? There’s a decent job at my former employer in Raleigh…check the website.
Qwerty: (134)
“There is more pain on the way.
Peak to trough, we will see 40% declines.”
For a change, we 100% agree.
In other news. Did you guys see the consumer credit numbers?
It only missed the consensus estimate by 1000% or so:
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
$-10.3B $-4.0B $-7.0B to $-2.5B $-21.6B
And more interesting news.
51.04% of all trading on the NASDAQ Friday was short selling!!!
http://insurancenewsnet.com/article.asp?n=1&neID=aloCZzBuTp9jhjVMrsZ90AzmCPjANbmsNU7izewCgWplNiyuxe2wBS3nNsphF16hkcHDMf-jQoYiaxRNRO27UA**
sas back in the saddle.
just got back from Oregon.
sitting back waiting for the all out complete collapse of the commercial RE market.
oh yeah.. and I just updated my netflicks que
:)
SAS
BC (149)-
Why do I get the sneaking suspicion gold certificates might be involved?
Why do I also get the feeling we are getting closer and closer to a failure-to-deliver event?
on a side note, got a friend who has 2 apples trees and 2 pear trees in his backyard.
he has caught families stealing from his trees, and they tell them they ain’t got money to eat..so they snuch over his fence.
green shoots?
SAS
grim (156)-
Try figuring out how to grow a year’s worth of legumes for a family of four in a 2′ x 20′ patch.
sas (160)-
You see that office tower in Portland where Calpers wrote down their whole investment?
Clot…You can plant beans three times a year. Sometimes four if the Spring comes early.
“Koin Center”
i did more than shinny dip for clams.
(or should i say claims).
SAS
“Why do I also get the feeling we are getting closer and closer to a failure-to-deliver event?”
it’s happened before.
SAS
oopps
“i did more than skinny dip for clams”
a little tired
SAS
Clot [161],
Bingo. The borrowers/forward sellers will, at some time, be called upon. This will make Ashanti appear to be minor leagues. The stock market doesn’t know the definition of naked shorts when compared to the gold market.
Clot, we went on a rare sneaker trip hunt yesterday for my husband. Not a shopper, that man.
Two observations:
Flameous Tootswear manager was sweating with relief at the massive customer turnout yesterday. The summer was scary dead with days without customers.
One day of customers brought hope.
As we parked, a chubby, darkhaired man in a T-shirt stood to the side of the store looking to his right at a lady sitting on a bench behind a shopping cart with a filled bag in it. No stores in the plaza were shopping cart stores. They came from somewhere.
As I noticed the oddness, a young boy of 7 skateboarded into the open door of the shoe store. We walked toward the store and he ran out, shoe in hand. One shoe.
As I was chatting up the manager, she put the matching shoe behind the counter and told me she can’t call the cops because they get sued, but she makes sure they only get one shoe.
Does that count as 1/2 the shrinkage?
BC (169)-
My most recent dream of the apocalypse involves the biggest Au short- namely, the US Gubmint- caught in a massive squeeze that forces them to stick a shiv in the backs of their two biggest accomplices, Messrs. Dimon and Blankfein.
All three go down like nasty, agitated anacondas, alternately squeezing the life out of each other and themselves.
Pat (170)-
Just a regular friggin’ Mr. Rogers’ neighborhood you got there.
Bahhah…the funny thing is we live in one of the 7th highest median income counties in the US.
And the plaza is near where I’ve told X to start househunting…in the top median income county in the country.
LMAO
“It looks like you are trying to talk yourself into buying a house. You know you are wrong, but you are trying hard to make yourself comfortable.”
Firestormik, that is partly true. I wouldnt say ‘i know im wrong’, but im probably being more optimistic than if we didnt want to buy so badly.
I always agreed that prices would come down and im more than happy for waiting the 5 years. But i never expected the bubble correction to drag out over 10-20 years. Like BC said, this is water torture. I dont see my family holding out for another 5 years. so yeah, i may be trying to justify a thing or two – subconsciously.
Still, i always agreed with the 30% correction prediction, especially when the financial system nearly collapsed last year and NJ prices barely budged.
Also, if rates and inflation start spiking at some point, that brings a whole other element of risk aside from just waiting for the lowest purchase price.
Grim 128 in mod.
Nice one coming up in the bcss
762792 10/02/09 14 SHINNECOCK TRAIL FRANKLIN LAKES 3602854.78
A 3.6mil default.
If rates and inflation spike, there’s good news and bad news for homebuyers.
The good news is that they are short the US$ in their mortgage, and with a fixed rate mortgage, they’d be borrowing below current market.
Bad news would be if they ever wanted to sell their house at a time that mortgage rates were high and discouraging buyers from paying much for it.
And the local government and education complex are unlikely to allow their take to lag inflation.
It’s low mortgage rates that are keeping home prices up around here, along with higher limits for conforming loans.
clot: use “exophthalmos” properly in a sentence….
I realize I’m preaching to the converted but just zooming around Middlesex County area on Zillow and there are over 12 pages of preforclosures. How is anyone determining real value with so much of this out there and unresolved?
Happy BD James!