From the Record:
Unemployment benefits about to run out for thousands
An estimated 33,000 New Jerseyans will receive their final unemployment check Friday, and the state estimates that benefits will dry up for about another 3,500 to 4,000 each week through the end of the year as residents exhaust the unemployment insurance benefits available to them.
Help for the unemployed now rests on Congress, where legislation is pending that would extend benefits, likely for another 13 weeks.
In New Jersey, and many other states, out of work residents can collect unemployment for 79 weeks.
From the WSJ:
Too Gloomy? Whitney Predicts 25% Home Price Plunge
U.S. home prices–which have already tumbled nearly a third from the 2006 peak–could plunge by another 25% as high unemployment levels continue, according to prominent banking analyst Meredith Whitney.
It’s a gloomy prediction that comes as the housing market is showing some signs of stability. Further price erosion would mean that more homeowners could find themselves owing more on their mortgage than their house is worth, a particularly tough position if there’s a job loss. Homeowners who are unemployed and underwater are often unable to sell their homes and forced to walk-away, adding more fuel to the foreclosure crisis. Still, it might be welcome news for potential buyers looking for a bargain.
“I think there is no doubt that home prices will go down dramatically from here, it’s just a question of when,” Ms. Whitney, known for accurately predicting troubles for Citigroup Inc., told CNBC Thursday. “…If you look at the drivers for unemployment, I don’t see that reversing very soon.”
First… Reply to Sean #221 yesterday.
Speaking of the Health care debate, I saw a very pregnant woman strolling down the street today who was most likely and illegal from the Oaxaca region of Mexico.
So she has her anchor baby in a few weeks and cannot be kicked out of the USA.
You are misinformed. A person with immigration violation (out of status, undocumented, “illegal”, etc.) can be deported. As an example, there was this case of a woman that lived in US for over 15 years, had 4 kids (all born in the US), and was seeking sanctuary in a church because she was being deported — it was in 2007.
S
the anchors are all over the place.
knocked up mexicans ,, just go to any
mall.
who’s kidding who?
Freedy, having a US baby does not guarantee a person to stay in the US. You can look up any immigration-related website. The parent has to stay undocumented at least till the anchor baby is 18.
The point is that the statement “So she has her anchor baby in a few weeks and cannot be kicked out of the USA.” is not true. The immigration situation for the mother remains unchanged due to child birth (at least in the short term).
S
“The parent has to stay undocumented at least till the anchor baby is 18.”
I mean, the parent *would continue to be* undocumented at least till the anchor baby is 18 [at which time the anchor baby can sponsor for the visa].
Heck, there are so many Indians I know (I was a member of that group till I got my greencard) that have kids born here, but are still waiting (5 years+ in many cases) for immigration visa. How they wish their “anchor babies” got them green cards right away.
S
Sastry: Were u involved with ISN? I was founder & president from 1998 to 2002.
“Were u involved with ISN? I”
SG, no. I just stayed at Holiday Inn :)
My GC travails were unusually long and I was filing four renewals every year (two work permits one for wife and one for me, and two travel docs). Used to check the blog immigrationportal.com [mainly dedicated to the procedural aspects of “legal” immigration]. Occasionally, there are some anti “illegals” there that would make a KKK grandmaster, Limbaugh, Lou Dobbs, or even Joe Wilson proud.
Seems that the ISN website is not active anymore. What was your focus at that time? Immigration process/reform?
S
My prayers and thoughts go to anyone here that lost a family member or a friend on 9/11…
S
One day closer to oblivion.
Dollar down,Budget deficit high,They still buy those notes and bonds.
Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. Treasury Department’s auctions this week of $70 billion in notes and bonds shows the unprecedented amount of debt being sold to finance the record budget deficit is failing to curb investor demand.
Each of the three securities sold yielded less than the average estimate in Bloomberg News surveys of the primary dealers that are obligated to bid, fueling a rally that drove government borrowing costs lower. At yesterday’s $12 billion sale of 30-year bonds, investors bid for 2.92 times the amount of securities offered, the highest so-called bid-to-cover ratio for that maturity since November 2007, the Treasury said.
“It is very encouraging to see how well the long bond” auction went, Dan Fuss, vice chairman of Boston-based Loomis Sayles & Co., said yesterday in a Bloomberg Television interview. Fuss manages the $17.4 billion Loomis Sayles Bond Fund, whose returns are in the top 9 percent of debt funds year-to-date, according to data compiled by Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIep0d4hnzGs
Somebody wake me up when they catch Bin Laden.
Until then, mission failed.
Unless you’re talking about cranking up a multibillion-dollar machine that produces nothing but endless war.
yo (10)-
All the demand is the Fed, vacuuming it all up.
Move along…nothing to see here:
“The U.S. junk bond default rate rose to 10.2 percent in August from 9.4 percent in July as the worst recession since the 1930s left more companies unable to pay off debt, Standard & Poor’s data showed on Thursday.
The default rate is expected to rise to 13.9 percent by July 2010 and could reach as high as 18 percent if economic conditions are worse than expected, S&P said in a statement.
Default rates have surged from less than 1 percent in 2007 as an economic downturn squeezed corporate revenues and a global credit crunch dried up funding. A 13.9 percent default rate would be the highest since the Great Depression of the 1930s, when it hit 15.9 percent.
Eighteen companies defaulted in August, bringing the year-to-date total to 147. “Credit metrics in the U.S. show continued deterioration of credit quality and restricted lending conditions,” S&P said.
Inquiring minds have been asking “With Junk bonds defaults so miserable, why is the stock market rallying?”
The answer is falling yield spreads indicate an increased appetite for risk, thus debt deals are getting financed. That combination is very supportive of equity prices.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN039597920090903
Clot, just acknowledging that the loss that the 3k+friends and family suffered is very real and worthy of remembrance, irrespective of how the event was exploited for personal profit or the (in)competence in bringing the guilty to justice.
S
People falling off the back end off the curve is bullish for stocks! Less unemployment, buy, buy, buy!
The Times has a feature on the
renaissance of Asbury Park.
FTFA; With its cluttered stores full of mid-century furniture, smartly chosen home collections and vintage clothing, the strip feels a lot like the East Village in the 1980s.
I often confuse the two myself…
In New Jersey, and many other states, out of work residents can collect unemployment for 79 weeks.
Wow. I had no idea you could collect for that long. Is this new or has it always been like that? That’s, like, 6 1/2 years….
#17 – That’s, like, 6 1/2 years…
….. erm, no it’s not. It’s, totally like, 1 1/2 years. No coffee + division = week/month confusion.
sastry (14)-
No argument there. Remembrance is entirely appropriate. However, the best way to honor them is to bring the people who did it to justice…not to foment an endless war that bankrupts our country.
Tosh,
And who said American’s can’t do math as well as the rest of the world?
I just received the following via e-mail:
I just received the following via e-mail:
” You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friend, is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.”
I just received the following via e-mail:
” You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friend, is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.”
still an empty lot down town. straight up shameful.
17 – It’s usually 26 weeks, in a “normal” economy in NJ. The 79 weeks is with all the extensions approved for this recession. Plus, the federal gov’t has added a $25/wk payment if you are on unemployment- it’s a separate check from the one you receive from state of NJ.
Unfortunately, I know more than I want to about the program.
Sastry: Couldn’t keep ISN up site and org longer due to time commitments. We did lobbying in Washington. Was heavily involved in ACTA act creation and passing.
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/09/poverty-is-up-median-income-is-down-and-employer-based-health-insurance-continues-to-trend-downward.html
Median income in 2008 dollars – 2008=2004 – headed to 1997.
That’s some chart.
And who said American’s can’t do math as well as the rest of the world?
For a few brief minutes my inability to distinguish between weeks and months led me to conclude we really had turned Gallic. I was happily ready to quit the job and revive DaDa (not exclusively French, I know). Stupid brain.
“N.J. foreclosure filings up 43 percent in July”
Total bs, people are buying good homes in NJ like it’s 2005.
Homes in bad towns are getting foreclosed.
#25 – House Whine – Thanks, that’s about what I thought the benefits were.
frank,
no closings in Montclair within the last 30 days.
23
John Galt sends e-mail?
Frank, shut up and get cracking on those lattes.
lattes? I think we are going back to black coffee and a stale bagel in plastic wrap days.
“N.J. foreclosure filings up 43 percent in July”
Just got a copy of more detailed NJ report, and the numbers are improving in NJ.
Buy a house now, before it doubles in price like in 2005.
*29 Chronic denial, seek help.
“Homes in bad towns are getting foreclosed.”
Bwahahahahahahaha
You have NO clue.
foreclosures rampant in “blue ribbon” towns… you have NO clue… Watch as it gets worse.
Guessing Game.
I bought a house in Monmouth Beach in March 2007. I just had the house appraised as I’m in the process of securing a loan for home improvements.
Does anyone want to guess what % of the March 2007 purchase price my home just appraised at?
Mildly amusing from The Onion:
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/97817
FORT MYERS, FL—In what forecasters are predicting will be the largest, most devastating disaster to hit Florida since the national economy collapsed, a Category 5 hurricane neared the Gulf coast this week, threatening thousands of repossessed and long deserted homes.
According to meteorologists, the incoming tropical storm could leave as many as 3 million residents every bit as homeless as they’ve been for the past year or so……
……”I can’t believe I would have had to leave my house behind had I not been evicted nine months ago,” said Dale West, one of countless citizens who grabbed family members and rushed to the safety of a nearby church basement last April. “Just think of all the things I could have potentially lost had I still had them!”…..
………”It’s a ghost town around here,” said Fort Myers native Carol Hodge, who saw some of the neighborhood’s last few squatters flee on Monday. “Or, rather, more of a ghost town. People haven’t really lived in this county since 2008.”
re# 39 – I’ll bite. 110%
Shore, I understand the arguments against excessive taxation. The offputting part about that statement is that 1/2 of americans earn about 50K or less a year. Generalized statements that imply the half of America that earns less than 50k isn’t working don’t do anything more than to inflame and polarize. In the end, those of us in the bottom 90% are at each others throats.
r #39
My Chatham house appraised for 8% over what I paid in October 2006. I will go with 8% for you as well.
Interesting New Republic Article.
The Next Financial Crisis
It’s coming–and we just made it worse.
http://www.tnr.com/article/economy/the-next-financial-crisis?page=0,0
I am so glad my tax dollars bailed out GM. Cannot wait for the next 50 billion to be invested into this dead whale.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090911/ap_on_bi_ge/us_gm_vehicle_refunds
Hello all!
Would any of you have info on a house:
I just saw this house as recently sold on Trulia and I don’t think I ever saw it on MLS. Would anyone know how I can go about getting information? I can’t seem to do a search in the tax records, but maybe I’m doing something wrong. This seems like an interesting price and proves that there are a lot of houses whose listing prices are out of range of the comps.
“This Single-Family Home located at 405 2nd Avenue, Bradley Beach NJ sold for $665,000 on Jul 29, 2009. The property has a lot size of 7,501 square feet and was built in 1925. This property previously sold for $665,000 on Jul 29, 2009. The average listing price for similar homes for sale is $755,983 and the average sales price for similar recently sold homes is $609,500. This property is in the 07720 ZIP code in Bradley Beach, NJ. The average price per square foot for homes for sale in 07720 is $313”
Thanks!!
39 – since I’ll assume its good news as Sean states, I’ll be contrarian and say 85%
[22] shore guy
Someone at the ABA blog posted a new title for the Obama vision for our nation’s children
“No Child Gets Ahead”
Beach –
Use this web-site to search….
http://oprs.co.monmouth.nj.us/oprs/External.aspx?iId=12
You also have to spell out “Second” in the street name.
43 – my house appraised in ’09 for more than 3% higher than the purchase price in ’08 and the newer appraisal neglected to include my 100 sq foot heated sunporch (which was inc in the 08 appraisal). obviously we’re heading for a new bubble. hahaha
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/finance-reform-vs-health-care-reform/
Sean @44 – Did you catch this a few days ago?
Also at WSJ “It’s Still the Economy, Stupid by Daniel Henninger.
BEACH – SALE BY GUARDIAN, TRUST, EXEC..
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/sr.cgi?&district=1308&ms_user=&srnum=1741137&block=73&lot=5&qual=
re: #51 Cindy – I feel as long as whatever forces that are currently gunning the markets continue nothing will be done by Congress of the Administration in the form of new regs.
53 – Sean – Thanks for responding. I am always interested in your take.
My Monmouth Beach house appraised for 97% of the March 2007 purchase price. Needless to say I was pretty surprised.
Fiddy, Sean – Thanks so much – for some reason when I type in the address it tells me 0 properties found. So what does that mean? It was an estate sale? Is there a way to seee if it was ever listed on MLS?
Thanks!
September must be an in-btw month for real estate. Looks like many listings expired as of Sept 1, and have not been re-newed. Realtor told me that there is a “fall” market and in a few weeks more homes will come on the market. I would like to wait until next year or longer to buy, but wife’s pressure is on to buy sooner. Should I wait for the “fall market” or buy now based on the few homes I am currently interested in? heh, “fall market”…a 20% fall would be nice for someone like me who has been sidelined for the past 2 years! (btw, this blog is great, I have been following it for awhile now)
You did spell out the word “Second” in the address, right ? It’s random as to how each town treats these numbered streets.
Sometimes you have to treat the damn thing like a CSI and go after it a couple of different ways.
re: Beach, I don’t have access to the MLS sorry.
Appraisals don’t mean anything these days. It is just a piece of paper. Qualified buyers matter and there are only a handful these days.
I tried that darn thing 5 ways til Sunday – still says none. Looks like a nice house on Trulia, though.
[197]{last thread]
Pat said
“Unless, of course, we elevate health care right up there with bearing arms.”
If it is in the Consitution, then it is a right. What I find amusing is that a lot of folks will conflate things to the level of a constitutional “right” which are clearly not enumerated, yet want to deny clearly enumerated rights because they don’t fit with their worldview.
The constitution also provides for its own metamorphosis. Why we don’t resort to that more often is beyond me. Had the framers mandated periodic constitutional conventions, we’d have far fewer of these debates. Of course, we probably would have a couple of Americas as a result, but it would solve the issues, now wouldn’t it?
For purposes of tax assessments, and more importantly, for contesting them, has anyone heard of any experience where the appellant attempts to sell a house for the FMV equivalent of the tax assessed value, and uses the lack of offers (and, more importantly, lowball offers) as evidence of a lower value?
Of course, I could easily see this as a factor that is easily gamed (have your friends present ultra-lowballs), but from an evidentiary standpoint, does this idea have any traction?
I am not an RE guy, so I am curious.
More from Grim’s first post:
“While prices may fall further, “a 25% decline from here sounds very steep, he said. “To say that we’re only half way through this sounds pessimistic.”
Yeah, right, too pessimistic. HA!
Here is what I dont understand. Houses in some train line towns, like Chatham, have not tumbled 33% from 2006 prices. In fact many of those houses are still priced above 2006 levels. They were all assessed at fair market value in 2006 and yet people continue to overprice them. When they do make price reductions they are often $10-30K after the house sits on the market for months. Very frustrating.
BeachBum-
405 Second Ave. Bradley Beach
Block 73 Lot 5
Last sale- estate sale-7/14/09- $665,000
Ten Bubbles in the Making
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/325783/Ten-Bubbles-in-the-Making?tickers=%5Egspc,%5Edji,xlf&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
“Should I wait for the “fall market” or buy now based on the few homes I am currently interested in? ”
jms,
Wait for the “fall market”. As in Fall 2010.
schlivo
I just put a bid on a home that needs total rehab. It’s a 4 bed 2.5 bath, smaller colonial with an unfinished basement. I was going to gut the kithen and 2.5 baths. Just wondering what an average cost would be for 2.5 baths, smaller kitchen (but eat in), and to finish basement. Leaning more on top of the line material. Any feed back would be helpful, thanks.
“Houses in some train line towns, like Chatham, have not tumbled 33% from 2006 prices. In fact many of those houses are still priced above 2006 levels.”
Shelley, Some people here will call you a liar for saying this. But i agree and see similar in some Mercer County towns.
More like 2005 levels in my neck of the woods but still – its frustrating.
Of course, some towns are giving 30% discounts since 2006-07 but they usually have gangs in the schools.
snuggler (69):
Basement: 10-20K
Kitchen: 10-20 K
3 Bathrooms: 30K
Get one contractor to do them all and you will be able to negotiate a much better deal.
Consider doing it legally or without permits prior to getting bids. The contractor should never be paid more than the work that they have completed. Break the payment scheme down into as many small parts as possible. It will get the work done faster. Don’t pay a penny until the work has started. Specify the number of coats of paint and the level of quality of the fixtures. More detail is your friend. If possible, buy the appliances and fixtures yourself.
Beach-
That is a puzzle, isn’t it.
Just enter 405 in the address and get every 405 in Bradley Beach…can’t be that many.
Snuggler (69)
I agree with Stu above but can easily see the kitchen going to $30K+ depending on the level of cabinetry you select. My bathrooms were quoted at ~$10K each to be redone and my basement cost me a lick over $10K to fully build out from nothing (with 3 new windows). The kitchen is where you will really see the $$ spent though and is the biggest ?. My parents just spent $45K for a smaller kitchen but went highish level on everything (not off the charts but realistic) and went a bit overboard on the cabinets.
Snuggler,
Low end kitchen with average appliances will start at $20k for a total gut. Expect to pay around $30k and figure on some cost overruns once they open up the walls. I did my house myself and once I started opening walls, I found other things that needed attention. Bathrooms are anywher from $5k-$10k depending on the size. Spend more on the master. That’s the one you’ll be using the most and will appreciate more. Like Stu said, break the payments down in three installments. Small deposit, midway through, and balloon payment when finished and after it is inspected by you or the town. I have found that contractors are desperate for work right now for the work that I contracted out. Negotiate, negotiate, negotiate.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20090911/us_time/08599192143900
Fairly sobering, for those who still might be feeling giddy:
It was not a lesson Lawrence Summers mastered with great ease. But after nearly a decade working beside sphinxlike Alan Greenspan, and having watched his own tenure as president of Harvard cut short by a phrase that slipped too nimbly from brain to mouth, Summers, director of the President’s National Economic Council, has become a restrained public man. Gone are the days when he would glibly compare flailing financial markets to jet crashes, as he did to TIME in 1999. He is mindful of how ill-considered asides by policymakers can cause financial-market angina. So you can probably imagine the ripple that ran through the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington in July when Summers looked up from his prepared speech, flashed a grin and loosed the sort of utterance that once upon a time marked imminent indiscretion. “There was,” he told the room, “a fight about whether I was allowed to say this now that I work in the White House.” (See how Americans are spending now.)
What Summers proceeded to offer was, in fact, an unusually candid insight. And though couched in jargon, it was an insider’s confession of why our present economic moment is fraught with both danger and opportunity. There appears to be, Summers told the suddenly very attentive crowd, a strange bit of physics working itself out in our economy. The problem is related to a hiccup in an economic rule called Okun’s law. First mooted by economist Arthur Okun in 1962, the law (it’s really more of a rule of thumb) says that when the economy grows, it produces jobs at a predictable rate, and when it shrinks, it sheds them at a similarly regular pace. It’s a labor version of how the accelerator on your car works: add gas, go faster; less gas, go slower.
What made Summers’ frank comment important is that it suggests this just-add-gas relationship may now be malfunctioning. The American economy has been shedding jobs much, much faster than Okun’s law predicts. According to that rough rule, we should be at about 8.5% unemployment today, not slipping toward 10%. Something new and possibly strange seems to be happening in this recession. Something unpredicted by the experts. “I don’t think,” Summers told the Peterson Institute crowd – deviating again from his text – “that anyone fully understands this phenomenon.” And that raises some worrying questions. Will creating jobs be that much slower too? Will double-digit unemployment persist even after we emerge from this recession? Has the idea of full employment rather suddenly become antiquated? Is there something fundamentally broken in the heart of our economy?
[snip]
snuggler,
We recently finished a kitchen like you describe, but did not go over the top on anything — nice things but not top of the line — and we spent $75,000, and that was with my doing some of the work tearing out and reflooring.
A bath could run $10-$15,000 I would guess.
Fiddy – just tried it and it worked – that is actually a good trick!
NJC/Fiddy, can you tell if it was on MLS? Just wondering. If it weren’t then the exectrix just sold it without trying to get a better bid? Or maybe it’s just the deed transfer following an inheritance?
I’m a newbie!
Beach Bum,
Are you back in North America?
Shore Guy – holy crow! that is expensive – is that in the Monmouth County area or further North?
Beach,
You can get my e-mail from Grim.
RE: “Somebody wake me up when they catch Bin Laden. Until then, mission failed.”
Do you honestly think our problem is one person?
Clotpoll-
Since you abhor mainstream chefs perhaps you’d be interested in the new trend of underground food competitions. There is one at the Bell House in Brooklyn this Sunday. Cheese and homebrews. My daughter is one of the clowns..er judges.
http://thefoodexperiments.com/
I’d be there but I have to feed the macrobiotic eating children’s warbler Laurie Berkner this Sunday morning at the State Theatre in New Brunswick and then feed dinner to carnivors The Disco Biscuits at the Starland Ballroom.
From that Time article:
“The number of long-term unemployed, people who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, was the highest since the BLS began recording the number in 1948. Jobless figures released Sept. 4 showed a 9.7% unemployment rate, pushing the U.S. – unthinkably – ahead of Europe, with 9.5%.
America now faces the direst employment landscape since the Depression. It’s troubling not simply for its sheer scale but also because the labor market, shaped by globalization and technology and financial meltdown, may be fundamentally different from anything we’ve seen before. And if the result is that we’re stuck with persistent 9%-to-11% unemployment for a while”
Given this, does anyone here really believe in the rose-colored assessments emerging from WS and DC?
Hey Qwerty,
http://tinyurl.com/Hey-Qwerty
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090911/ap_on_bi_ge/us_gm_vehicle_refunds
This is gret for parents thinking of taking the kids on a cross-country adventure or looking at 100 colleges. It beats paying for a rental car.
PS: some people might think that dream house and New Jersey don’t really go together, but I think the Jersey Shore is tops!
Oh, wait. Max of 4,000 miles. Still, it is good for a decent driving vacation.
Beach,
I just took a trip down to Delmarva, then VA Beach, then the OBX looking at houses and beaches and there is little down tere that compares favorable to NJ.
there
*84 And yet there are some who still believe that somehow prices in this area are not going to drop any more.
dang i can’t type. Just ignore the myriad typos.
Thanks sooo much for the input peeps. It was a big help.
One last thing from the Time article:
“The funding for job creation in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act was based on an assumed 8.9% unemployment rate. Now 15% is a realistic possibility. And yet we’re hearing few interesting ideas about how to enhance America’s already groaning unemployment support system as millions of Americans sit idle. Tangled in the debate over health care – and bleeding political capital – the White House may find itself too weak and distracted to deal with the danger of joblessness.”
My advice about kitchen and bathroom work — buy a place with the kitchen and bathrooms you want. The job is a pain in the @ss.
Beach-
405 2nd Ave was listed as #20909888. Weichert in Ocean Twp had it listed as an Estate Sale for 84 days, culminating in closure on 7/17/09.
Original List Price was $799K, sold for $665K.
“buy a place with the kitchen and bathrooms you want. The job is a pain in the @ss.”
Plus in this market, you’ll be lucky to get 50% back of the cost of project if you need to sell anytime in the next (insert # of years before housing recovers) years.
BeachBum-
405 2nd ave- Bradley Beach
MLS#20909888
listed-3/11/09-$799,000
under contract-6/03/09-$799,000
closed-7/17/09-$665,000
Fiddy you beat me to it!
Biting the bullet:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/10/garden/10nest.html?hpw
Wow – well that goes to show you should put in the low ball offer! It was listed during the months when I stopped looking this year because I had loads of other stuff going on and I was discouraged to see how little prices had come down in that town. There is a house now on the market on the 600 block of one of the nice avenues that is listed at something like 665k – next to a pizzeria and a half a mile from the beach – it is standing empty.But I guess (thankfully for home owners) estate sales don’t come along every day.
I want something not farther than the 400 block though.
Thanks you guys!
Hey Shore Guy-
That clunker of a house that you were inquiring about in Spring Lake- 500 Prospect Ave.- just went under contract.
Shore Guy (75):
Very interesting speech by Summers and these exact thoughts have been simmering in my mind.
In the most recent decade the market has become obsessed with EPS numbers. EPS numbers are looking a lot better these days on revenues that are significantly lower. The market is ignoring the decline in revenues which in turn means it’s ignoring the closing of the credit bubble creating which is limiting the ability of the consumer to spend. This same drop in revenue is what is causing the unemployment numbers to continually increase even though EPS numbers are increasing at the same time.
IMO, the market disconnect occurs due to how it traditionally defined growth. Companies used to hire more people to grow revenues, to obtain greater economies of scale resulting in higher EPS. Today, companies are chopping heads, ignoring revenues, losing economies of scale, but still increasing earnings. I suppose the new definition of growth does not include unemployment growth. What is this going to do to wages and the resulting further drop in consumer spending. I think this new means of growth will end very badly.
Government spending is helping to grow our GDP, but at what cost?
I still firmly believe that the country does not benefit from the existance of the IBs and when the whole thing collapses, the history books will point to their financial alchemy as the major cause of our downfall. Meanwhile the masses will firmly believe it to be the infighting between the dems and the repubs.
coast (83)-
Slick. Have fun!
Stu – amen.
“That clunker of a house that you were inquiring about in Spring Lake- 500 Prospect Ave.- just went under contract”
God help them.
jms77 says:
September 11, 2009 at 10:05 am
Should I wait for the “fall market” or buy now based on the few homes I am currently interested in?
jms: The adjective “fall” in Fall Market is derived from a verb, not a noun.
Stu – great observation.
High unemployment has become a ‘good thing’ – since it keeps the costs down. If we get to 30% unemployment, the S&P 500 will be more profitable than ever before.
vito: You are active in the house search. How do you factor the potential for higher state taxes and higher real estate taxes into your considerations?
“buy a place with the kitchen and bathrooms you want. The job is a pain in the @ss.”
I disagree…I say buy a home with good bones. Good size where you and your family can grow with. Get a discount for all the “original” old rooms.
Close, don’t move in but starting gutting. get a container and two mexicans from the street and do a complete gut jos in one weekend for $1,000 ($700 for container.
Invite people for estimates first week, have them map your kitchen, explain cost about electric, flooring, pluming(if you’re moving appliances or sink) etc.
Now you know what your kitchen is gonna look like and what you need. Next weekend go “shopping for wholesale cabinets” You can get cabinets from Milhurst Mills (see Timmy) for less then 5K. While there you get Italian marble tiles for $3.00 ft. No taxes if you pay cash. Champion granite is right in the back for you countertops. (don’t pay more then $40 ft.) cash no tax.
Now that you have all the supplies. Call them back and ask them labor only prices.
You’ll easily get top notche kitchen done less then 30k in two weeks just the way you want it.
the price of the house is easily 50K cheaper if the kitchen needs to be gutted.
Contractors make the most money on the materials where they tell you they paid x and they really paid x-50%.
MALIBU, Calif. — A Wells Fargo & Co. executive who oversees foreclosed properties hosted parties and spent long summer weekends in a $12 million Malibu beach house, moving into the home just after it had been surrendered to Wells Fargo to satisfy debts, neighbors said.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hzM342Ryg90G-dzqsoymBHM2GY-QD9AKRVI82
#111 make
You just got your favorite suppliers in trouble…or you really hate them.
make money :
I like the way you think
#75 Shore
Back in the 60s there was more of a manufacturing based economy that was unionized. That was replaced with a move to Service based non union economy. With no service and no base the layoff curve is steeper.
Chi,
i’ve never been much of a tax rebel.
The teachers and cops compensation really get my family’s panties all up in a bunch and i’ve always taken a neutral stance.
Higher taxes usually translate to better schools, less crime and generally keeps the rif raf out.
I also think the market has a natural mechanism that automatically adjusts to over-taxation. Once people collectively feel that taxes are going too far, they start leaving, reducing net tax revenues, and then the govt gets the hint and is forced to lower rates.
My wife is from TX. She would love to move us back there, where homes and taxes are 50% of NJ but some of her friends and their husbands are way out there and i dont want to subject our children to that if i have the choice. You get what you pay for i guess.
I think my company, based in NJ, got a training grant from NJ this year.
I have never heard of this before, a state that pays for continuing education classes for a specific company? Maybe NJ is trying to hold on to their telecommunications industry after all.
#83 NJCoast
I’m a big Laurie Berkner fan. I have three 4 and under.
111
Contractors make the most money on the materials where they tell you they paid x and they really paid x-50%
Close. Most manufacturers publish their list price online. For most plumbing items like sinks, faucets, etc. a decent contractor is paying about 40% off of list. Cabinets work pretty close to the same way.
As a distributor I pay somewhere around 50% off of list on average. Contractors may try to charge list, but most can’t pull it off anymore. The internet, HD, and Lowes killed that level of markup for them years ago.
Most good GC’s and subs make or break their profits by managing their labor effectively. Lousy ones just try to screw you over. And right now they are all real hungry.
The end is nigh….
Organically groaning
By KYLE SMITH
A Manhattan couple and their toddler decide to live for a year without toilet paper, disposable diapers or a fridge, composting their waste in a box full of worms they keep in their living room. We are fortunate that the resulting documentary “No Impact Man” is not presented in smell-o-vision.
Colin Beavan, the writer who trademarked the title and turned it into a book and blog, has proved a master of publicity even as he finds himself lashed by fellow liberals angry either that they didn’t think of such a meaningless but profitable stunt or that he’s making them feel guilty about not going to such extremes. (Beavan, who vowed to eat only locally grown food, carries around a germy Mason jar from which he drinks all his liquids.) From his Fifth Avenue co-op, he makes an amusing specimen of the earnest eco-dweeb.
This spongy porridge eater reminded me that only a couple of letters separate locavore from loco bore. But the hero of the piece (for a while, until she is converted) is his cheerful, relatively normal wife, Michelle Conlin, who confesses to sneaking ice from the office refrigerator (she works at Business Week) and is dying for a cup of coffee (sorry: not locally grown).
She continues to wear makeup throughout, just as he installs a solar panel that provides just enough juice to fire up his computer, because vanity is harder to kill than America’s SUV habit.
The film makes little sense (the couple refuses to ride subways, but Metro-North is OK), but it’s a diverting conversation piece/freak show. It skips over some sticky issues. There is a hint, for instance, that the daughter is not pleased to grow up amid flies instead of Fruit Loops. A highly emotional moment isn’t captured on film but merely referred to in the past tense. Also, we never learn what the family does in lieu of toilet paper.
Let’s hope no-impact living catches on; any fad that involves submitting to germ rule and riding bikes in heavy traffic is bound to be as self-nullifying as a suicide cult, leaving lots of yummy natural resources for you and me to enjoy. Green yuppies — the guppies — even feel guilty about reproducing. They’re pedaling to extinction.
Meanwhile, the daughter, deprived of TV, cold milk and even out-of-season produce, seems destined to grow up somewhere to the right of Ayn Rand. I can’t wait for her memoir about living in a permanent Lent. At least Catholics have God instead of Gore, though.
veto that says:
September 11, 2009 at 12:54 pm
Chi, Higher taxes usually translate to better schools, less crime and generally keeps the rif raf out.
I also think the market has a natural mechanism that automatically adjusts to over-taxation. Once people collectively feel that taxes are going too far, they start leaving, reducing net tax revenues, and then the govt gets the hint and is forced to lower rates.
? so you are considering buying a home right into the face of this very real possibility? even in a neutral real estate market?
Veto, I agree. You get what ya pay for. Cops that are hired today (most of them) are just as intelligent as attorneys. They have to make split second decisions that a judge can take weeks to decide. Lower pay comes with lower standards. Lower standards breed lawsuits that can cost a town millions in a lawsuit. Northern Jersey hires the cream of the crop due to well paying jobs.
Beach Bum –
I was just looking at some of the active listings in Bradley Beach, Brielle and Avon….some very interesting properties for sale.
Have you been looking at recent listings ??
*122 Really broad, generalized, and in my opinion uninformed statemnts there.
But if that is your rationlization for staggeringly high property taxes,who am I to argue.
A Manhattan couple and their toddler decide to live for a year without toilet paper, disposable diapers or a fridge, composting their waste in a box full of worms they keep in their living room.
A lot of well todo middle class families from a couple of decades ago were living like that — except the composting the waste in the living room part (people could use a septic tank — not in Manhattan though?). In temperate climates, toilet paper is probably not the best option. Fridges, even when they are there, won’t have much electricity, and usually food is cooked on a daily basis. And no disposable diapers. It isn’t as gory as you point out…
S
zieba (112)-
Squatter.
“you are considering buying a home right into the face of this very real possibility?”
I’m mostly focused on price. Rates and property taxes not so much.
I realize prop taxes will get worse before they get better but i dont lose sleep over it.
Another market mechanism is the vote. The people’s voice will be heard. We’ll all get our chance to pull the lever.
Anyone read this today in the WSJ?
The Obama Jobs Disaster, Continued
Calling all of America’s jobless, it’s time to rise up and march on Washington D.C.!
Just remember to bring your resume. Washington is the only place in America where you might actually find work.
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2009/09/11/mean-street-the-obama-jobs-disaster-continued/?mod=yahoo_hs
composting their waste in a box full of worms they keep in their living room
eww.
You can get by without a fridge, especially if you don’t have kids and live in a city. Composting in the living room though? eww.
#122
I know at least 10 well-paid cops in NJ, went to HS with most of them. They are NOT as intelligent as attorneys, and most took the job because they were going nowhere doing anything else, and had an “in” with the town. It is a great gig if you can get it.
#130
I will add that a number of them do have college degrees though…
#122 Snuggler,
Unfortunately in a lot of NJ towns that’s not the way it works. It’s more who you know than what you know. I know plenty of cops that were hired that aren’t the cream of the crop and later just become issues in their towns after filing many frivolous lawsuits.
Now for something totally different:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090911/ap_on_sp_ot/ath_semenya_withdraws
For anyone who thinks they are having a bad day, I am pretty sure it does not compare to this.
#120-The “No Impact Man” project ran an interesting blog.
The writer of that article is a jerk. Probably gargles with had sanitizer in the morning.
Fiddy, I have been looking at recent listings. I might dust off the low ball offer on a couple of them. You don’t want to go near the north end of Bradley.
Speaking of taxes, though, Bradley Beach’s taxes are very high compared to Belmar, and I’d have to say that the north end of Belmar is nicer than the south end of Bradley Beach. Not a lot nicer, but a little nicer and much lower taxes.
so, what do you guys think the capping of mortgage interest deduction to 28% will do to the high end? (lets say you are a high-end owner, in the 35% bracket, you now will only be able to deduct you mortgage interest at 28%). Effectively, this raises your after tax mortgage rate by about .5%.
Belmar has access to a better school district too — Manasquan trumps Asbury any day.
Ricky,
It is a csamel’s nose under a middle class tent. 28% today, tomorrow?
Anybody read this article? Another waste of the courts time. The father should be smacking the kid upside the head for being disrespectful not filing a suit on his behalf.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/09/three_teens_sue_newark_bears_h.html
Another reason this country is going into the crapper. Too many spoiled kids with a sense of entitlement.
BeachBum – Belmar can be ok on the North Side.
Especially here, this property has a foreclose sale upcoming on 09/21 judgment is $248,608.71 I wonder what it will go for.
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=58+Inlet+Terrace%2C+Belmar%2C+NJ+07719&ie=UTF8&t=h&z=16&iwloc=addr
re #139 – three Millburn High School students. Self entitlement does not even begin to describe these spoiled rich kids.
I saw that – and I just google mapped it and it is 0.2 miles to the beach.
I just am worried about how auctions work – otherwise I’d send my brother!
It’s listed as being worth 2 mil so I suspect even at auction it will be out of my price range!
Beach – shortsales and forclosures like this one are going to create a new low comps for the shore.
140, 142
I’m pretty sure that house has been on and off the auction block for 12-18 months.
Tough day at the office today. Lots more layoffs and many of these were on my level. We are now cutting what management used to refer to as our superstars.
Keep them green shoots coming.
#136 – I thought a lot of those types with excess mortgage end up in AMT land anyhow……
111.
this post is 100% correct and I’ve renovated many kitchens and baths.
I would also consider taking a few personal days off here and there to do some well planned supply and fixture purchasing. Weekends can get crowded.
A house with good bones is key, and the weekend gut out is a great idea and never live in the house (I did this once, never again, things got primitive).
You probably have a 9-5er to tend too but if not, its great to be around to make a few runarounds for the contractor when things pop up (and they always do). It ensures that the crew stays put and keeps working, otherwise you run the risk that they get sidelined at Hooters and there goes a day’s work.
the 40 dollar grantie price is about right, I’ve paid less and I got the installation and under mount SS sink thrown it. Sweet.
Don’t buy counter tops and Home Depot or Lowes, way over priced. You have to go to those funky back of the building fabricators. They usually have a little disply room so you can see what they have.
“The teens – Millburn High seniors Bryce Gadye and Nilkumar Patel, both 17, and junior Shaan Mohammad Khan, 16”
Something tells me the reason they didnt salute the flag had little to do with having too much money.
[120] Yet another stupid, gimmicky, let’s-write-a-book-and-make-money scheme dressed up as some sort of larger social commentary. He’s a fool, but anyone who shells out money for such a book is an even bigger fool, and kudos to him.
veto – i know a few people that work in the Millburn district. It was the money….
120
nothing that some lithium wouldn’t cure.
May the Millburn three win the case and be rewarded with a free ticket to a future Newark Bears game of their choosing.
Sean,
I was thinking it could have something to do with them possibly being muslim, in light of all the bunker busters we recently dropped on that mid-east.
But too much money could certainly cause a similar result.
112-
That Wells Fargo woman personally using the foreclosed beach home is classic. Especially since they kept it off the market. You can’t make this shit up. The unbelieveable thing is that the couple lost all of their money in the Madoff scam.
154
why suprised? the banks could care less
i spoke to chase recently,, forget it
they tell you to pound it.
Hey I am busy with 9/11 and Jets gossip today sorry I have not had too much time to gossip about RE.
Jaime Dimon is Greek and you know how they love to pound it.
freedy says:
September 11, 2009 at 2:42 pm
154
why suprised? the banks could care less
i spoke to chase recently,, forget it
they tell you to pound it.
Barbara,
Just make sure this isn’t you;
Condo owner finds out he’s been living and renovating in the wrong unit
http://www.kdvr.com/news/kdvr-wrongcondo-030509,0,6904039.story
#69 Snuggler –
If you’re really leaning toward top of the line and paying someone else to do the work, I’d reserve more like 50k for the kitchen.
If you’re willing to leave the shower/tub and all wall tiling alone in the baths, you could easily do the work yourself for under a thousand dollars, assuming all the current plumbing rough in is good.
veto #153,
I assume you’re going by their names, since you have no other information.
Of the three names, only one is in Arabic.
Sync,
Patel can be Pakistan and Gadye can be northern Africa. You are making the same assumptions i did by saying they are not.
Chifi, I bet 52 weeks ago today you would have never imagined this would be trading at almost 105!!!
NATIONAL CITY CORP SUB NT 6.87500% 05/15/2019
Basic Analytics
Price (Ask) 104.995
Yield to Worst (Ask) 6.179%
Nice Malibu digs to squat in.
http://www.106malibucolony.com/
Nom 63 – It could be used as supporting evidence at the hearing, but you best have other useable comparable sales that have closed and/or an appraisal as your primary evidence for the appeal.
veto that says:
September 11, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Sean, I was thinking it could have something to do with them possibly being muslim, in light of all the bunker busters we recently dropped on that mid-east. But too much money could certainly cause a similar result.
vito: I would bet the house that it goes into their college applications. No doubt at all. And the app readers are going to lap it up like alpo…
JJ: you saw this?
http://www.nypost.com/f/print/sports/jets/jets_psl_scam_should_be_last_straw_RTvoOTr0UnN9NlhDoxdpvK
166-
Long complained about the fees associated with Ticket purchases. All teams partner with brokers to sell of seats.
I can do without. I’m only buying at the stadium at face value. Personally, most of the NFL product is better on TV. Unless I’m going to party or taking the kid, I’d rather see the game on TV.
However, Baseball and Hockey are much better live.
Chifi, yea I did. Remember Jets would finance the whole thing, anyone near bankruptcy could have bought and not make. If you want Jet tickets just go to ticketmaster and buy right from box office, go under season ticket holder and enter code FOOTBALL to get a discount and better seats, they are selling individual seats to all games including Pats now. Funny thing not everyone knows and people are still buying above face Jets tickets on stubhub everyday.
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200909111630DOWJONESDJONLINE000579_FORTUNE5.htm
BUY rating for AIG bonds.
Hey, it’s ONLY $3 billion!
http://www.detnews.com/article/20090911/AUTO01/909110424/Senate-bill-wants-$3B-to-pay-for-Delphi-retiree-health-care-coverage
hmmmm, after reading about the Malibu house story, I was thinking……how would this whole recession/bank failure/real estate bubble thing have gone down MINUS the copious amounts of cocaine?
[122]
snuggler says:
September 11, 2009 at 1:07 pm
“. . . Cops that are hired today (most of them) are just as intelligent as attorneys. They have to make split second decisions that a judge can take weeks to decide. . . . ”
Whaaaa? So the ability to make an instinctive snap judgment (based on training and practice) is a sign of intelligence? Nothing against cops (my dad was one) but those I know are not as smart as attorneys, and those that I know that went to law school struggled mightily, and those that have passed the bar are not doing rocket science legal work (IMHO, you can train a chimp to work in some areas of law). And FWIW, comparing situations for judicial decision-making to police/military decision-making is like comparing apples to fishing rods.
Either you live among a pocket of extremely smart cops or extremely stupid attorneys.
“On Wednesday Smith & Wesson reported earnings of $12.6 million, or 21 cents a share, for the first quarter, compared with $2.3 million a year earlier.”
CNBC says that gun sales are up because people are nervous about the recession.
Somehow, I don’t think that is the real reason.
http://www.synthstuff.com/mt/archives/2009/firearms-salesman-of-the-year.jpg
172 – From my experience in the law field, I found some attorneys were really just doing a lot of paperwork, and weren’t exactly reinventing the wheel. I was surprised how much of it was just administrative, as opposed to strategic thinking. Anyway, most of the time it was all about “the billables”! I was fortunate, I believe, to have worked with attorneys who really were ethical but I agree that they weren’t always the most sophisticated or intellectual people. But they knew how to get the job done.
116.veto
Take a look at;
http://www.nj.com/news/bythenumbers/
for public pensions. My Berkeley Heights Teacher neighbors who retired are getting $7774/month & 3558/month as retired teachers (a couple) with COLA and Free Medical.
New thread, up!