NJ industrial rents fall to “lowest in a decade”

From the NY Times:

Industrial Real Estate, a New Jersey Bulwark, Shows Some Cracks

Over the years, as the real estate markets for offices, residences and stores in New Jersey have gone through peaks and valleys, the market for industrial real estate has been like the buildings themselves — not flashy, but big, solid and reliable.

No longer. The tenor of third-quarter market reports about the warehouse sector has ranged from unhappy to abysmal.

One big commercial real estate services concern, CB Richard Ellis, reported, for instance, that 11.7 percent of the state’s industrial property was available for either purchase or lease as of Sept. 30. That was the highest rate it has recorded since 1992 and a 32 percent rise in 12 months.

Another company, Cushman & Wakefield, uses somewhat different parameters in its calculations, but said it agreed with the “thrust and reasoning” of CBRE’s report. Its measure of the vacancy rate for warehouses and distribution centers was 8.8 percent as of Sept. 30.

Furthermore, industrial specialists said that asking rents were plummeting statewide, and that in many submarkets, effective rents were the lowest in a decade.

“Staggering,” Mr. Knee said. “I haven’t seen it in all my 21 years in the business.”

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188 Responses to NJ industrial rents fall to “lowest in a decade”

  1. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Fed Officials Watch Asset Prices for Signs of ‘Excessive Risk’

    Federal Reserve policy makers said for the first time that their decision to cut interest rates to zero may be fueling undue financial-market speculation even as they called the dollar’s decline “orderly.”

    The Federal Open Market Committee said its policy of keeping rates low might cause “excessive risk-taking” or an “unanchoring of inflation expectations,” according to minutes of its Nov. 3-4 meeting released yesterday. Central bankers also said further dollar depreciation that might “put significant upward pressure on inflation would bear close watching.”

    The dollar weakened as investors wagered the central bank will tolerate further declines in a currency that has slid more than 6 percent against the yen in three months. Policy makers are wary of fueling a third asset-price bubble in about a decade as they hold the benchmark interest rate near a record low to revive growth, economists said.

    “Financial markets have been doing much better than people might have expected,” said Marvin Goodfriend, a former policy adviser at the Richmond Fed who is now a professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. “The Fed is saying to markets, ‘Don’t overdo it.’”

  2. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Close to home for the holiday

    New Jerseyans might be guzzling turkey and stuffing this Thanksgiving weekend, but they won’t be guzzling as much gas.

    Bucking the national trend, about 5 percent fewer state residents than last year will travel 50 or more miles from home this holiday weekend, according to a survey by AAA.

    Representatives of AAA, who track the statistics, point to higher gas prices in New Jersey.

    A gallon of regular unleaded fuel in North Jersey a year ago cost around $1.90. This year, drivers are forking over $2.56 per gallon.

    “You’ve got to look at the rise in gas prices as a factor — we’re paying 66 cents more than we were last year,” said Shani Jarvis, assistant manager of public affairs for AAA of New Jersey in Florham Park. “It is significantly higher than it was last year.”

  3. grim says:

    From the APP:

    Manalapan agrees to reassess properties

    The township will be notifying all property owners of their new assessments in mid- to late December, following a township-wide reassessment now under way — the township’s response to losing more than 360 tax appeals in the last year.

    “Manalapan got assessed at the height of the market,” Mayor Richard Klauber said. “It was the consensus of the governing body to try and reassess the properties so they’re more reflective of today’s current market values.”

    Manalapan is not alone.

    New Jersey League of Municipalities staff attorney Matthew Weng said such reassessments are becoming “more common now,” although he did not have figures on how many towns were conducting them specifically as a result of the housing market bubble bursting.

    He said towns are going to have to get creative and “do a lot of different balancing” to cover the extra costs.

    “If anyone’s to blame, it’s Wall Street for causing the economic collapse,” Weng said.

    In Manalapan, the cost of the loss of the appeals already has surpassed the cost of a reassessment.

    The township has lost more than $212,150 in judgments for this year’s appeals losses. It budgeted for $87,000 in legal and appraisal fees related to the appeals for 2009, according to the township, although the actual amount the township pays could be significantly higher.

  4. grim says:

    From the Daily Record:

    Budget cuts not as easy as some think.

    Anthony M. Bucco, the newly-elected assemblyman from the 25th District, met with our editors the other day and was asked what advice he would give Chris Christie.

    “Cut the budget by 10 percent across the board,” said Bucco, R-Boonton Twp.

    That may sound rash, but it’s not bad advice. A 10 percent cut in the state’s estimated $30 billion budget would amount to a cut of about $3 billion.

    Gee, that means we’d only have about $5 billion to go to close a projected budget gap of $8 billion in the current budget, which runs through June 30.

    Our point is not to be snide, but to try to impress upon readers how difficult the state’s budget situation is.

    A poll Tuesday from Quinnipiac University says the public supports budget cuts and wage freezes over tax increases. It revealed that 75 percent of voters surveyed support a wage freeze, 61 percent support layoffs and only 23 percent back higher taxes. One question is whether the public will accept deep cuts in programs they like. We may find out.

  5. kettle1 says:

    grim 4

    Or a 27% cut to close the entire 8 billion.

    JUST DO IT!!!

  6. NoHouse4Sure says:

    #1

    The markets are clearly over heated. Why not raise interest rates in much smaller increments say 10 basis points in mid-late Q1 ’10. I know many will say what’s the point of such a small increase but it starts the process and at some point, we need to do it and given the small initial increase, the same can be repeated down the road. This allows the US and world economy to adjust in smaller increments. I would think any reaction to interest rate increases today would be more heightened than in the past.

  7. confused in NJ says:

    WASHINGTON — It’s being called the “tax for troops” proposal, and it’s thrown yet another wrinkle into President Barack Obama’s deliberations over America’s strategy for Afghanistan.

    Two senior Democratic lawmakers said they want to impose a new “war surtax” on Americans to pay for any additional armed forces deployed to Afghanistan under Obama’s forthcoming decision on the strategy for the eight-year-old war.

    “What we are saying is, if this war is worth fighting, then it is worth paying for,” Representative David Obey, a Wisconsin Democrat, said Monday.

    Mr. Obey, who chairs the powerful House appropriations committee, told two U.S. television networks he fears any decision to deepen the country’s involvement in the Afghan war will jeopardize the nation’s economic recovery by diverting vital government funds.

    Under Mr. Obey’s plan, wealthy Americans would bear the brunt of the war tax. He advocates charging a one per cent surtax on anyone earning a taxable income, with the levy rising to two per cent for Americans earning above $200,000.

    “There ain’t going to be no money for nothing if we pour it all into Afghanistan,” Mr. Obey told ABC News.

    “Once you get up into the stratosphere in terms of $400,000 or $500,000 in income, the surtax would be higher than that. If we have to pay for the health-care bill, we should pay for the war as well.”

    Mr. Obey’s proposal is similar to one floated last weekend by Senator Carl Levin, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

    Mr. Levin, who wants U.S. strategy to focus on training Afghan security forces, said the war tax should apply to Americans earning between $200,000 and $250,000.

    Mr. Obama is expected to make his long-awaited decision on troops and strategy for Afghanistan in early December. White House spokesman Robert Gibbs told reporters Monday that no announcement would be made prior to this week’s U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

    According to Mr. Gibbs, Mr. Obama is still considering final options. The president met Tuesday night at the White House with his war council, the ninth such meeting since Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, asked for 40,000 additional troops.

    There has been no discussion between Mr. Obama and his national security team of a “specific proposal” on how to pay for an expanded war effort, Gibbs said.

    “They haven’t gotten deeply into the discussions on that,” he said. “The president did mention in one of the meetings specifically with the joint chiefs [of staff] that we had to take into account how much all of this was going to cost over a five- and 10-year period.”

    Peter Orszag, the White House budget director, has pegged the cost of sending every additional U.S. soldier to Afghanistan at $1-million, meaning an extra 40,000 troops would cost $40-billion.

  8. cooper says:

    ” Peter Orszag, the White House budget director, has pegged the cost of sending every additional U.S. soldier to Afghanistan at $1-million, meaning an extra 40,000 troops would cost $40-billion”

    1 mil per soldier, is this accurate?

  9. BC Bob says:

    [1],

    Fed to the world; Yes, it’s our currency. However, it’s your inferno. Deal with it.

  10. BC Bob says:

    “A gallon of regular unleaded fuel in North Jersey a year ago cost around $1.90. This year, drivers are forking over $2.56 per gallon.”

    [2],

    No need to worry, it’s not calculated in the headline CPI #. If you don’t eat, drive, heat/cool your home, you’re insulated from the effects of a cheap/cheaper currency.

  11. #6 – It’s not in any of the major player’s interest for the Fed to raise rates.

  12. Veto That says:

    “it’s not calculated in the headline CPI #. If you don’t eat, drive, heat/cool your home, you’re insulated from the effects of a cheap/cheaper currency.”

    BC, is this a reason why TIPs might not be the best inflation hedge?

  13. Shore Guy says:

    “1 mil per soldier, is this accurate?”

    Iy does not surprise me. The logistics involved are staggering.

  14. Shore Guy says:

    Another hidden cost of of operations in Southwest Asia is that we are chewing up our gray-tail transport fleet. In particular, C-17s are having service life halved and halved again — not good with the factory shutting down. Add to this all the other hardware that is unfit for further use after deploymebt to sandy locals and we are facing a HUGE bill to replace mil hardware. None of these costs are yet before the public, and it is not like we can decide to not replace the equipment.

    If North Korea does not invade the South in the next six months to a year (when we will be hard pressed to respond quickly (or to pay for responding), I doubt they ever will.

  15. Schumpeter says:

    Funny; not that long ago, the IMF offering was considered bearish for shiny:

    “$1,200 here we come. Bernanke just got punk’d. Again. From the Financial Chronicle of India: “The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may well buy IMF’s remaining hoard of 201.3 tonnes on acceptable terms, which are now under negotiation.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/india-negotiating-purchase-remaining-imf-gold-spot-hits-1177oz

  16. BC Bob says:

    veto [12],

    Don’t follow them. TIP, buckle up.

  17. Seneca says:

    In anticipation of Black Friday, how many of you are upgrading to a Blu-ray player this year? Lots available for 80 to 90 bucks with doorbuster deals and name brands all with offerings at 120 or less.

    Even the discs are being hawked for 9.99. Time to switch?

  18. BC Bob says:

    “Funny; not that long ago, the IMF offering was considered bearish for shiny”

    Schump,

    Anytime the IMF, Gordon Brown, CB’s, etc.., sell, it’s actually bullish. Especially when 1 buyer steps up and buys the whole vault at mark to market.

  19. John says:

    Avoid Bluray players that are not Netflix or Utube equipped.

    Seneca says:
    November 25, 2009 at 8:14 am
    In anticipation of Black Friday, how many of you are upgrading to a Blu-ray player this year? Lots available for 80 to 90 bucks with doorbuster deals and name brands all with offerings at 120 or less.

    Even the discs are being hawked for 9.99. Time to switch?

  20. Schumpeter says:

    I have all the gold I need but not all the gold I want.

    My apologies to Phil Gramm.

  21. Painhrtz says:

    Seneca Sony PS3 at 299 is a better value gaming system fo the kids, you can network with your home wireless and download movies from the playstation network. Also has great classic games in the playstation store.

    Beatles rock Band has become my ultimate time waster

  22. Schumpeter says:

    Marc Faber & Mish, spreading the holiday cheer:

    Faber: “No decent citizen should trust the Federal Reserve for one second. It’s very important that everyone own some gold because the government will make the dollar (in the long term) useless.”

    Mish: “No decent citizen should trust any central bank anywhere. The problems go far beyond the Fed and in the long run all fiat currencies are worthless. Fiat currencies do not float, instead they all sink at varying rates.”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/11/marc-faber-sees-war-against-invented.html

  23. gary says:

    466K on jobless claims… green shoots!

  24. BC Bob says:

    Schump [22],

    World traders are voting, a vote of no confidence.

    No need to worry. Change has come to DC. Before long, that’s about all that will be left in your pocket.

  25. 3b says:

    #6 That was the same silly game Mr. Greenspan played a few years ago. Raise rates at every meeting by 25bp. After a while the market just yawned, becasue they knoew exactly what teh Fed was going to do ahead of time.

    If they are going to do it, do it quick and large,and get it over with.

  26. 3b says:

    #7Mr. Levin, who wants U.S. strategy to focus on training Afghan security forces, said the war tax should apply to Americans earning between $200,000 and $250,000.

    So this war which is supposed to defend our freedom and preserve our way of life, (what silliness) should only be paid for by those who earn 200-250K?

  27. make money says:

    Breaking News….Geitner says that we are in favor of a strong dollar policy.

  28. chicagofinance says:

    Veets: of whatever you fear the inflation…own…

    12.Veto That says:
    November 25, 2009 at 8:03 am
    “it’s not calculated in the headline CPI #. If you don’t eat, drive, heat/cool your home, you’re insulated from the effects of a cheap/cheaper currency.”

    BC, is this a reason why TIPs might not be the best inflation hedge?

  29. Painhrtz says:

    3b according to the democratic workers party yes

  30. #17 – Don’t bother. Bit-torrent.

  31. safeashouses says:

    #7

    So a 200k income would in a normal world would have qualified you for a pos cape on the east coast or a bungalow on the west coast. and if it was a dual income family paying for daycare and/or extended after school care they would be living paycheck to paycheck, or getting deeper in debt (like the coal miner’s who sold their souls to the company store).

  32. Kettle1 says:

    It seems awefully quiet around here since news came out that FDIC is officially broke.

    Bank failure Fridays should start to get interesting sometime soon between government debt ceilings and an eventual interest rate hike

    I eagerly await the official pronouncement of “No one saw this coming” when we get a good bank run or similar

  33. safeashouses says:

    All this dreary news is inspiring me to

    1) Learn how to make bread
    2) Learn how to use lentils and split peas in a variety of dishes (Ethiopian and Indian dishes)
    3) Grow a garden
    4) Continue to learn how to make peasant food (cheap, nutritious, and tasty dishes)
    5) Start canning and stocking up on flour, sugar, dried peas, beans, lentils

  34. chicagofinance says:

    For use fans of Jets, Mets & Knicks…things…no good…from the paper…

    Upstate pal Doug Branch says that what’s most disturbing about the Jets is that Mark Sanchez’s tackling has not improved one bit since the preseason. …

  35. make money says:

    What’s wrong with Shiny? All it does is go up. Has the world lost confidence in the world financial system? Nope! Not yet…

  36. All Hype says:

    Money (27):

    This is for Timmay:

    Dollar Index: 74.503.

    http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

  37. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Make did you buy that SRS?

  38. lostinny says:

    17 Seneca

    DH got a blue ray player a couple of months ago. He got an LG. I think it was around $280 on ebay. It has Netflix on it as well as some other rental options called Vudu and Roxio.

  39. BC Bob says:

    Make [36],

    To start, long term it’s going to the moon.

    Short term, IMO, it’s starting to get a wee bit overextended. That said, it could last for awhile. I have had huge gains in the past year. My s/t target for this move was approx $1,250. Since we are close, I’m starting to maneuver. I will be spreading out of a portion of my futures, into options and hedging the remainder.

    I feel that there is an equal chance of $200 up/down, s/t, from this level. I don’t like that risk/reward.

    There is nothing wrong with ringing the register. In addition to this, there are a boatload of late comers that will soon be thrown overboard. At that time, I will be back to a full position.

    Note, if I owned the physical, I would do nothing. However, futures are 100-1.

    Thanks you to all the architect’s of a debased currency. Beware of unintended consequences.

  40. BC Bob says:

    That’s Thank You.

  41. Barbara says:

    broke “even”, just sold it all. I feel better.

  42. PGC says:

    #34 Safe

    Treat yourself to a subscription to Mother Earth News. Its a fun read.

    And you can always do your Christmas shopping at the real Lehmans.

    http://www.lehmans.com/store/Best_Sellers?Args=

  43. Painhrtz says:

    Ket I still like Clot’s nation failure Friday better!

  44. John says:

    Even worst on ticketmaster right from Jets box office they are having a Military Appreciation special for last three home Jets games, just enter code “military” and tickets are $15 bucks. I even saw $115 Mezz tickets selling for $15 bucks. And yes Jets are selling PSLs for those same seats with a $120 ticket price for next season!!!

    chicagofinance says:
    November 25, 2009 at 8:55 am
    For use fans of Jets, Mets & Knicks…things…no good…from the paper…

    Upstate pal Doug Branch says that what’s most disturbing about the Jets is that Mark Sanchez’s tackling has not improved one bit since the preseason.

  45. kettle1 says:

    Pain,

    Yes nation failure friday (NFF) is one of the best lines yet.

  46. Veto That says:

    BC, I’ll offer some contrarian perspective knowing full well that you have already thought this through.
    i bought china etf in march and it immediately went up 10% so i took my profits and waited for the next crash. The crash never came. It kept pushing so i bought back in two weeks later at 5% higher price from where i sold it. another two weeks later i took my 10% profits again and waited for a dip. and then had to buy back in again at higher price. Then i finally realized that it wants to go up up up and there is nothing to time.
    Like Peter Lynch once said “Selling your winners is like pruning all the pretty flowers in your garden and leaving the dead ones.”

  47. make money says:

    BC,

    I’m fully aware of teh benefits of leverage. I wish I knew how to play with futures, options, hedging, taking some of the table, the art of when to ring the register and when to open it. I also wish I was a more trusting type and trusted another human (broker) with my money to do this for me.

    This is precisely why a peasant and a janitor like me is forced to fill my pot of gold.

    I’m also aware that there is no asset class that alwayd goes up. So I’m mentally prepared and expect that shiny will go under $1,000 one last time. At this time I will buy some more. However, I must admit I’m a little tapped since I’m already all in. My rents are coming in and I stopped making mortgage payments for 3 of my properties so all the income $$$ are ready to deploy.

    I love it how there is no inflation. But we can’t afford our devalued homes, we can’t afford to send kids to school, Gas in NY $4.00 per gallon super, we have to pimp our wifes and send them to work to help pay the mortgage, The gov’t is borrowing to stimulate with no intention of paying back. when you add local, city, state, federal, Soc. Sec. property and sales taxes we are over 50% taxed. Jobs lost are not coming back.

    Barring a major world war we are screwed.

  48. Dink says:

    John #45,

    Anyone can buy these or do you need some sort of military ID?

  49. kettle1 says:

    make

    Barring a major world war we are screwed.

    Patience grasshopper.

    WW1 was the war to end all war, yet promptly followed by WWII. Its human nature

  50. BC Bob says:

    Veto [47],

    No argument here. I hear U.

  51. Schumpeter says:

    John (45)-

    Is there a way the Jets could encourage the soldiers to bring their guns to the games?

    “Even worst on ticketmaster right from Jets box office they are having a Military Appreciation special for last three home Jets games, just enter code “military” and tickets are $15 bucks.”

  52. Schumpeter says:

    If I were Sheila Bair and wanted to fail a humdinger of a bad bank, I’d do it this Friday. Try to fly it under the radar.

    Wouldn’t you?

  53. Schumpeter says:

    If the Jets really appreciated the military, they’d pay them not to come.

  54. BC Bob says:

    Make[48],

    Just some s/t indicators flashing. Certainly not my gut. However, plan your trade, trade your plan.

    Again, long term, I have not flinched. Actually, more bullish.

    I am not sure if we will go sub 1K. I do believe it will be tested.

  55. Veto That says:

    “Barring a major world war we are screwed.”

    wow. just read that and then think about what a major world war would be like in the 21st century.
    Do you think its perhaps a bit of an overstatement intended to make a point? Or am i just totally naive about the state of the economy?

  56. make money says:

    Mike,

    I put my toe in the water, plan to buy more during december. I expect first quater of ’10 to be bloody.

    This just gambling for fun. I did get hurt a little last year although Gold massaged that away with a 33% gain in 2009.

  57. John says:

    Anyone can buy them.

    Dink says:
    November 25, 2009 at 9:36 am
    John #45,

    Anyone can buy these or do you need some sort of military ID?

  58. A.West says:

    Ok, if I’m going to have to pay taxes for it right away, just round up the troops and send them home. Let them grow poppies and blow themselves up and stone adultresses. If they can’t even find OBL in 8 years, what’s the point? Problem is that when the troops come home, unemployment immediately goes up another 1% I guess.

  59. make money says:

    A.West,

    Problem is that when the troops come home, unemployment immediately goes up another 1% I guess.

    Omama will stash them in communitty colleges. straight out the playbook of GI Bill.

  60. make money says:

    John,

    No one cares about the J-E-T-S. I called ny newpew and offered to buy them tickets if they wanted to go and they said “No, they effin s*ck”

  61. PGC says:

    #55 BC Bob

    Caught CNBC on in the cafeteria discussing S&P. Two pump merchants shilling away, but some truth was coming through.

    V shaped recovery was in profits. Everyone saw what was coming and cut expenses such as headcount.
    Pant up demand spending from those not laid off is out there.
    S&P earnings at $80 so 15X gives 1200 so we are trading in range. 50% of S&P earnings from overseas.

    Now the dots they don’t connect is that when rates rise and the Fed turns off the spigot, it will increase the cost of bringing those dollars back. So that will evaporate that 50% profit. Consumers with jobs will still be unloading personal debt and returning to saving and therefore not spending. Retail numbers for the Nov will be mediocre at best. Dec will be good due to the late thanksgiving start and short squeeze with the 25 falling on a Friday, so a lot of panic buying and personal budgets going out the window.

    At the end of the day, the party is over and the clean up of the house has started. There will be a few with a very sore head and we may be grounded for a few years, but the recovery has started. And in a few years another party will start. Will we learn a lesson from this? Probably Not. Even after the shock of $4 gas, trading an old Ford F-150 pickup truck for a new F-150 pickup was the most common swap under the Cash for Clunkers program.

    People never learn.

  62. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Make 57 Doing the same, we shall see.

    Ket 50 Options other than are getting more limited every day.

    Veto 56 Scary very scary one nervous or crazy finger on a button & it’s all over.
    What’s that 2012 prediction.

  63. meter says:

    “No need to worry, it’s not calculated in the headline CPI #. If you don’t eat, drive, heat/cool your home, you’re insulated from the effects of a cheap/cheaper currency.”

    LOL

  64. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Make: Stopped making payments on 3 properties. Are you dumping them on the bank?

  65. BC Bob says:

    PGC says:
    November 25, 2009 at 10:25 am
    #55 BC Bob

    PGC,

    My post, #55, has nothing to do w/S&P’s.

  66. Painhrtz says:

    Yahoo headline:

    New U.S. home sales rise 6.2 percent in sign of stability

    Omitted from headline

    Thanks to government intervention

  67. make money says:

    Make: Stopped making payments on 3 properties. Are you dumping them on the bank?

    Lender can either have them back or re-structure the debt.

  68. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Make 68 Sounds like a plan.

  69. Anon E. Moose says:

    re:[3]-

    I wondered when the towns would get around to blanket reassesments. The appeals process favors those who appeal at the expense of those who do not. One house that has declined in values gets reassessed. The value of the house next door has declined by about the same proportion, but they continue to pay at the higher assessment — until they appeal. It seems the cost and hastle of the town processing (and losing) assesment appeals has forced their hand.

    Now, everyone gets a lower assesment — and corresponding higher tax rate — so the vast majority end up paying what they were before or more.

  70. relo says:

    68: Know someone who recently stopped paying. Same week re’d unsolicited cc offer from same institution.

  71. BC Bob says:

    “Lender can either have them back or re-structure the debt.”

    Make[68],

    Luv it. It’s time for you to get some of that TARP.

  72. Al Gore says:

    WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama will attend a widely anticipated global climate summit in Copenhagen next month to spell out the U.S. goal for curbing greenhouse gas emissions.

    The president will take part in the conference on Dec. 9 before heading to Oslo to accept the Nobel Peace Prize. The White House announcement Wednesday ends heavy speculation about whether the president would go.

    Good bye US Constitution and hello UN Agenda 21.

  73. Safeashouses says:

    #43 PGc

    That lehmans site is pretty cool. All kinds of non electrical gear.

  74. 3b says:

    #62 I don’t think it will be coming abck in just a few years. There are permanent structural changes here. The fact that many Americans will continue to bury their heads in the sand does not change that fact. The USA is in rapid decline across all sectors. IMO we will have persistently high unemployment permanently.

  75. Al Gore says:

    Who here believes in global warming?

  76. #76 –Who here believes in global warming?

    Hi Al.

  77. make money says:

    here is an asset class thats making shiny look like Countrywide.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/34147495

  78. make money says:

    Luv it. It’s time for you to get some of that TARP.

    I re-financed last year and bought shiny with the “equity”. I’ll keep you posted with updates.

  79. Painhrtz says:

    Al, I can only speak from personnel experience that spring/fall have become much shorter with a longer warmer summer/ shorter warmer winter during my 37 years on this rock.

    I have no empirical evidence to support those facts nor have I seen any supporting scientific evidence without bias that purports human intervention as a concrete conclusion to the aforementioned observation.

    Since my scientific endeavors are outside of the realm of climatology I make no claims to be an expert, but if you wish to compensate me I can engage my strong research skills into a literature review and unbiased opinion.

    If you would prefer a supporting viewpoint
    I would like a cut of the proceeds from your cap and trade business so as not to inform the sheep of your scam to supress industrial revolution in developing nations.

    Signed

    A freelance scientist with an easily bought moral compass.

  80. Al Gore says:

    80.

    Our team at the CRU (climate research unit) has already completed the research but thanks for the offer. We cant account for the lack of temperature increase since 1960 and that is a travesty. We may have to switch the charts around.

    Ill keep you updated.

  81. Mikeinwaiting says:

    “A freelance scientist with an easily bought moral compass.”
    Pain classic,love it.

  82. make money says:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125902295608261455.html?mod=rss_Today's_Most_Popular

    Step one. Storage prices go higher and become hard to get.

  83. Painhrtz says:

    Mike the irony of that statement really comes to light when you find out I work in regulatory compliance.

  84. make money says:

    From post ($83),

    How long before one of those Armored Trucks loaded with Shiny gets jacked.

    It’s not like shiny has serial numbers and can be tracked or a precious peace of stolen art,rememeber a bar can be cut and sliced to a very small denominator.

    If I’m a crook I’m looking into robbing

  85. Al Gore says:

    Pain, you have to check your inner soul and find the compassion. One jet liner produces 400kg of greenhouse gases for each passenger. Thats the weight of 1 polar bear.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxis7Y1ikIQ

  86. PGC says:

    #66 BC

    Was tying into Makes #48. Sorry for the confusion.

  87. ruggles says:

    “Make: Stopped making payments on 3 properties. Are you dumping them on the bank?

    Lender can either have them back or re-structure the debt.”

    I’m ignorant on this topic but I thought banks could go after your assets if it’s investment property. Can’t they sell the buildings for whatever they can get and get you for the difference?

  88. PGC says:

    I can’t remember if it was A West or James having a go at me over my views on Lou Dobbs.

    See if you can spot his political U turn in this article.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125910998942663259.html

    The guy is a joke.

  89. Painhrtz says:

    Al but they make nice rugs

  90. Seneca says:

    No speculative bubbles are being created anywhere… nope, none.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/34147495
    “Garlic Price Rises Surpass Gold, Stocks in China”

  91. homeboken says:

    Ruggles – I don’t want to speak for make here, but if the ownership structure is an LLC with non-recourse financing then the mortgage is only secured by the buildings. It sounds like make is very willing to let the lender have them back.

  92. Al Gore says:

    90.

    I dont appreciate the threats against me or the polar bears you capitalist pigs. You will have a one world government whether it is by conquest or consent.

    This is what you get for stealing the election from me.

  93. Mikeinwaiting says:

    PGC Saw Dobbs at the A&P last week lives up the road a piece from me. A lot thinner in person.

  94. ruggles says:

    92 – thanks homeboken. I’m sure make has it figured out and/or is betting that the bank negotiates. I was just under the impression that nonrecourse only, or mostly, applied to owner occupied purchases and even owner occupied refis were recourse unless the state had specific laws against it.

  95. DL says:

    Shore: Ref the C-17 fleet. I was in one coming back from Afghanistan when we blew an engine over the balck sea. No doubt we are wearing out everything faster than it was plannned to last. Last tijje I was in a Chinook we had one of the flight crew whose job was to watch the internal plumbing for leaks. I’ve always considered flying the riskiest part of my job and not because of the SAMS.

  96. PGC says:

    I’m on hold with a Hospital. They are announcing that, for the duration of the flu season, no visitors under 18 allowed.

    Also no one with symptoms admitted as a visitor at any time.

    Interesting times.

  97. Uncle Jay says:

    Do any of you remember that 170 Glen Avenue, Midland Park, NJ? We put the low ball offer in, and of course, the owner said they had a higher offer from another home buyer? What I find curious though is that the MLS listing has been pulled? Is it common to pull the listing while a home is under contract? Or did they lie, and pull the home from the market all together? Any insight would, as always, be much appreciated. Happy Turkey Day!

  98. make money says:

    (97),

    which hospital?

  99. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    I’d be curious to see how the judge justified this ruling, what with the constitutional provision regarding abrogation of contracts and all . . .

    “A Long Island, NY, judge cancelled $525,000 in mortgage payments being demanded by California bank OneWest and its IndyMac mortgage division, criticizing its “harsh, repugnant, shocking and repulsive” behavior, the New York Post reported Wednesday.

    The ruling, which was delivered last Thursday, eliminated $291,000 in principal and $235,000 in interest and penalties on Diane Yano-Horoski and husband Greg Horoski’s ranch home.

    According to court records, the couple refinanced their home in 2004, paying off the original mortgage with the help of a $292,500 subprime loan, the Post said. It had an adjustable interest rate of 10.375 percent, which rose above 12 percent.

    When the couple struggled to pay off the debt due to Horoski’s health problems, OneWest — which is owned by a private equity group that bought IndyMac — sued the couple in 2005. The foreclosure was eventually approved last January.

    Judge Jeffrey Spinner criticized OneWest for repeatedly refusing to work out a deal with the couple and for misleading him about the amount of money involved in the case.

    “I think the judge felt it was almost a personal vendetta,” Horoski told the Post.

    OneWest said it “respectfully disagrees” with the ruling and believes it will be overturned on appeal. . . . ”

    You can dislike a party in the case, but unless the judge can base that ruling in some law that permits the award, well, I don’t know about that one.

    Will be curious to see how the lending industry responds to the new judicial activism in places like L.I., Mass, Philly . . .

  100. PGC says:

    #98 Uncle Jay,

    I think the last listing I saw on that was $639K. It started life north of $800K and I think the low sixes is about right for it to sell. It is a oversize house for the lot size (125×125) although it looks like it was done well, but its $15K taxes fronting a busy street and junction.

  101. PGC says:

    #99 Make

    Valley in Ridgewood.

  102. Uncle Jay says:

    #101 PGC,

    Thanks. They lowered it to $669,000 at the end of October, but I just don’t know if they really received an offer at that price and its under contract, or they pulled the listing completely until the Spring. Is there any way of finding this out? The $15K in taxes is why my bid was so low. Those are only going up in the next few years…

  103. Schumpeter says:

    plume (100)-

    This judicial activism will never take hold.

    Banks own the gubmint, and they will do what is necessary to continue to ass-r@pe the country.

  104. Shore Guy says:

    “I’ve always considered flying the riskiest part of my job and not because of the SAMS.”

    DL,

    Sand is hell on aviation equipment and makes an already dangerous exercise more so. The C-17s are well protected from SAMS with LAIRCM, BUT he Chinooks, fuggedaboudit and thers have been brought down by non-state actors using MANPADS. The basic IRCM protection on most helicopters is not what it should be (black ops have better), and may be fine against an SA-7 or maybe 14, but an 18 or 24 can easily overcome the any “disco-ball” or “flash-lamp” IRCM system.

    Heck, even LAIRCM will have difficulty against an imaging seeker.

    If you have been in country, you may well have seen some of the “vodka express” transports from all manner of former Soviet republics pulling cargo transport duty. This is because the environment is too dangerous for “N” aircraft to operate under flight-level 200 and TRANSCOM’s organic fleet is insufficient to supply our forces, especially given the wear-out factor.

    Where in SW Asia have you been?

  105. Al Gore says:

    So I just ventured out to the bank for a bank wire to buy some shiny. Yes, Bob, I know I am a late comer to the metals game but I am in early on oil.

    I sat for 15 minutes waiting for some service and I tuned into the phone conversations. Call after call of overdraft complaints. We arent talking a couple hundred bucks like a paycheck vs electric bill scenario.

    We are talking 20 dollar balance and an overdraft of 1.86 cents.

    There is a segment of this population that is hanging on by the skin of their teeth. What the hell are they going to do when the shit goes down?

  106. John says:

    The fat lady who pushed her polar bear sized body into seat next to me so tight I could not even itch my nose I would be more than happy to sacrifice next time I fly.

    Al Gore says:
    November 25, 2009 at 11:42 am
    Pain, you have to check your inner soul and find the compassion. One jet liner produces 400kg of greenhouse gases for each passenger. Thats the weight of 1 polar bear.

  107. PGC says:

    Off to the park with the kids to watch the Balloons get inflated.

  108. Shore Guy says:

    John,

    For just that reason, for about the past 15 years now, I either flu first class or I drive. The seats in coach are more akin to lawn furniture than in first, they are uber narrow, and the pitch between seats is smaller. When one has a width-challenged traveler next to one in coach, it makes for a mighty uncomfortable trip.

  109. chicagofinance says:

    Bout time…this prick has taken the whole season off…..

    Kerry Rhodes first season in Rex Ryan’s defense has been forgettable and now the safety will be benched, according to FOXSports.com’s Jay Glazer.

    Glazer reported on his Twitter account that players have told him Rhodes will be replaced in the secondary by Eric Smith. Rhodes, who signed a $33.5 million extension in April 2008, has no interceptions, sacks or forced fumbles this season and five pass deflections.

    The biggest headline Rhodes made this season was when he said the Jets should try and ‘embarrass’ Tom Brady and the Patriots before their Week 2 matchup, which the Jets won. But New England, led by Wes Welker’s 15 catches, got revenge on Sunday by victimizing Rhodes, who got flattened by Welker and RB Laurence Maroney in the 31-14 defeat.

    Rhodes has started since his rookie season in 2005. Smith has played off the bench in all 10 games this season and has one interception.

  110. DL says:

    Shore: Most interesting thing about flying in theater is there are no NAVAIDs, everything is VFR. The corkscrew landings in Bagram make your worst day on USAIR boring. The former Soviet aircraft coming into in KIA are a sight to behold. Whenever you fly into Ukraine, Georgia, Bulgaria, Romania, etc. you see these same aircraft canabalized for parts on the aprons: I probably don’t want to know how they keep them airborne. Last time I flew Aeroflot we had bald tires and duct tape on the wings. Can’t answer your other questions.

  111. Morpheus says:

    Ah. . I love real estate agents. Once again I made an offer on a house. Offer was contingent upon responding to it within 24 hours. Seller’s agent calls the offer insulting and we told him to present the offer to his client. Appears that he never presented offer to client and 24 hours is up.

    I know an agent has to present offer as objectively and as quickly as possible, but if he does not present the offer ( Trust me, I can find this out!). So assuming he has violated his ethical duty to the seller, what can I do about it? Ethics complaint?

  112. yikes says:

    repost because the link is so good …

    schumpter, i was reading this awesome article, and just found out where you got your name!

    http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/10/new-yorker-article-on-martin-armstrong.html

    this is one of the best pieces of journalism i’ve read this year.

    How’s this for a subhed: Is the financier Martin Armstrong a con man, a crank, or a genius?

    If you like numbers/theories you’ll eat this up.

    worth noting (halfway through):

    “The summer of 2010 will be devastating.” Something about planets lining up.

    I pray, pray, pray this happens in LATE August, if at all.

  113. John says:

    A league source tells us that a large chunk of Rhodes’ guaranteed money is guaranteed for injury only, and not for skill. So if the Jets cut Rhodes, the guaranteed money won’t be paid.

    So if the Jets opt to sever ties with Rhodes before the 2010 season, he won’t earn a $2 million guaranteed (for injury only) roster bonus or a $2.78 million guaranteed (for injury only) base salary.

    That’s $4.78 million in supposedly guaranteed money that will evaporate if the benching is the first step toward a bumping of Rhodes from the roster.

    As Rich Cimini of the New York Daily News points out, Rhodes has yet to register a single impact play in 10 games. He has zero interceptions, no sacks, no forced fumbles, and no fumble recoveries.

    Cimini believes that the benching traces to Rhodes’ failure to deliver a big hit to Pats receiver Wes Welker on Sunday, during a play in which Welker gained 15 yards.

    As Cimini also points out, there are rumblings that Rhodes isn’t sufficiently focused on football, given his fledgling acting and modeling career.

    http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com…-million-hole/

  114. Barbara says:

    112. Drop a letter off at the address and let the sellers know about their agent’s actions.

  115. BC Bob says:

    AG [106],

    Not too early. There’s a long way to go.

  116. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [89] PGC

    What, Lou’s populist bent doesn’t warm your soul???

    At first, it was hard trying to figure out where Dobbs was coming from on the political spectrum. But I have said that immigration was an issue that cut across party lines, and makes for interesting bedfellows. In the end, I decided that his anti-immigrant stance was consistent with his brand of populism.

    And yes, his new position is a 180 degree flip flop with a triple twist gainer. And he may just run for Senate since the only republican politician in the state just got a new job.

    Just one of these days, I’d like to be able to vote and breathe at the same time.

  117. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [111] DL

    “Last time I flew Aeroflot we had bald tires and duct tape on the wings.”

    Note to self: When traveling in Eurasia . . .

  118. Shore Guy says:

    DL,

    The only question was “wher in SW, Asia” but I appreciate your inability to say. No problems here. I just wish they would get more DIRCM systems of all flavors onto the TRANSCOM assets and start putting them onto the CRAF planes bringing in people from here and Europe. The CRAF planes are big juicy PR targets for UBL and his ilk, and they stand no chance against an SA-18 or 24.

    The last thing we need is for 250 souls and a $75,000,000 plane to be lost due to failure to install readily-available protection.

  119. Shore Guy says:

    “Ah. . I love real estate age”

    Broiled or grilled?

  120. safeashouses says:

    Whole Foods was crowded today. Heard there is a holiday or something this week.

    Borders is having some deal for people with a members card there are kids DVDs (Thomas, Barbie, Bob the Builder) on sale for $2.99)

    Missing Frank’s A&F reports, thought I’d toss one out there.

  121. Essex says:

    Happy Thanksgiving…You tankless SOBS!!

  122. Veto That says:

    “He never presented offer to client. Assuming he has violated his ethical duty to the seller, what can I do about it?”

    Ive never experienced this but my agent fights lowballs and price reductions tooth and nail. Its my impresison that Realtors fear a price crash because it may lead to a completely seized up market where buyers and sellers reach an impasse all activity just stops. They are doing everything possible to prop up the impression that prices are stable, or going down in a controlled and organized manner if anything.

  123. Shore Guy says:

    Veto,

    If that is their thinking, they are nuts. Look at the sales figures for the entire NE compared to the NY Metro area. Here, where asking prices are still to high, for the most part, sales lagged well behind other areas. RE agents get paid when deals close. Fewer deals, fewer paychecks. They would be better off geting multiple big checks than an occasional check 20% larger.

  124. John says:

    INGDIRECT is having a Black Friday CD Special for you cheap SOBs!! Don’t spend save it all.

  125. DL says:

    Just want to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving. We have a lot of men and women in harms way over these upcoming holidays and I hope you will all take a moment to give thanks for their sacrifices.

  126. Shore Guy says:

    DL,

    Indeed. There is not a holiday where this family, whih has suffered KIA, does not reflect on those currently serving. Stay safe.

  127. BC Bob says:

    DL [126],

    Amen.

    Happy T-Giving to all.

  128. Shore Guy says:

    And to all a good night.

  129. yikes says:

    spent some time talking to family friend today about the economy. he’s been a pretty successful day trader the last 7 years (engineering background):

    overall opinion: It is “impossible” for China to stop buying our debt. I mentioned a ‘Black Swan’ event, he said China simply cannot do that. They have to.

    (Chi Fi, you wanna weigh in on that?)

    * Market vs. Reality is key right now.
    Basically, Americans are idiots, and they go out and spend in times when they should be saving. All the doom and gloom is sending the American public out to the stores to spend away their worries.

    * A note on Paulson (the billionaire) that isn’t mentioned as often as it should be: He shorted the market around 2004/2005 … and as the market climbed, he was about $3 BILLION in the hole. Can anyone confirm that?

    doesn’t mean im not still buy ammo on a monthly basis.

  130. BC Bob says:

    Shore [129],

    “Goodnight, it’s alright, Jane”

  131. BC Bob says:

    “overall opinion: It is “impossible” for China to stop buying our debt.”

    Yikes,

    Please explain.

  132. Al Gore says:

    Happy Thanksgiving NJReReport,

    You folks are going to be needed to rebuild this country soon.

    Anyone have some rope that I can hang myself with?

  133. Veto That says:

    “If that is their thinking, they are nuts.”

    Shore, i cant speak for all realtors, but thats the impression i get. And if agree with your logic.
    But everytime i submit an offer, which usually is significantly lower than ask, my realtor gives me that look as if to say, “please, any offer but that. Please add 10K to that,im begging you. My branch manager is going to whip the snot out of me when they see that number.”

  134. Al Gore says:

    DL,

    Thanks for serving man. You guys are the best this country has to offer.

    Remember your Oath,

    Al (Oath Keeper)

  135. Veto That says:

    Shore, Just once i want my realtor to advise me to go in lower and more aggressive… just once.

  136. yikes says:

    “overall opinion: It is “impossible” for China to stop buying our debt.”

    Yikes,

    Please explain.

    sadly, i would not be able to do his explanation justice. it sounded good, though!

    i tried to ask all the questions you and clot mention here all the time, but he basically said that financially, they couldn’t do it because nobody else consumes like we do.

    also said that China won’t go into a death spiral like japan because – paraphrasing here – China still has massive room for growth (only 20% developed?).

  137. yikes says:

    BC – forgot to add … he said

    deregulation was they key. he blamed most of this debacle on Greenspan, the jagoff who gave the banks so much power.

  138. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Somewhere I have this guy’s autograph on a football.

    “MOUNT LAUREL, N.J. — Shortly after signing with the San Diego Chargers, Jon Runyan announced he’ll retire at the end of the season and run for Congress in New Jersey.

    The 35-year-old offensive lineman said in a statement late Tuesday that he told Republican officials in Burlington County of his plans to challenge Democratic Rep. John Adler in New Jersey’s 3rd District.

    “I look forward to a successful end to my career on the field,” Runyan said, “and a spirited campaign against congressman Adler in 2010.”

    Runyan, who was signed as a free agent Tuesday, hasn’t played since the end of last season. He wasn’t re-signed by Philadelphia after having surgery on his right knee.

    Runyan has not given interviews about his political ambitions or said much about his stance on issues. A previous statement mentioned the country was being taken in the wrong direction by career politicians “incapable of solving the problems we face.”

    The seat was held for more than two decades by Republican Jim Saxton, who retired last year.

    Adler, who replaced him, is seen as vulnerable. He was a popular state senator, but is a Democratic first-term representative in a district that traditionally supports Republicans. . . . ”

    Methinks I have to get in early on the inner circle. Too bad it is South Jersey.

  139. make money says:

    Happy Turkey Day to everyone. Thanks for letting me vent and Thanks for group therapy.

  140. Shore Guy says:

    Nom,

    That district used to extend to the ocean near Toms River. If it still does, a regional campaign office close to Exit 82 is a pretty easy drive from your area.

  141. A.West says:

    PCG,
    I despise Dobbs, so not me.
    I’m for free and open immigration. Let anyone who is willing to work or invest come to the US. While abolishing the welfare state. Nobody’s entitled to anything, except having their individual rights protected.

  142. Shore Guy says:

    “Goodnight, it’s alright, Jane”

    BC,

    Were you involved in an incident?

  143. Morpheus says:

    #115:
    I though of at least picking up the phone. But I wonder, If I contact a person who is represented by counsel, I have committed an Ethics Violation, i.e,, you knew they were represented by an attorney, you know you should speak only to the attorney and you decided to ignore that and speak to the attorney’s client.
    Can I contact a seller who is directly represented by an agent or do I have to go thru the agent? Would I get in trouble for that? (excluding attorney ethics, which I do not think applies here)

  144. John says:

    So you commit and ethic violation if you do the right thing?

  145. 3b says:

    #112 Presnet offer to seller directly;and inform seller that the realtor refused to present the offer.

  146. 3b says:

    #98 Why buy in Midland Park when you have so many other better choices? Ridgewood to name one.

  147. ruggles says:

    145 – all written offers must be presented. that agent can go to real estate jail for not at least getting it to the seller. Either get the name of their attorney and send it to him/her or have your agent present the offer (perhaps call the listing agent’s broker and tell them you’re going over to the seller’s house with the offer.

  148. Veto That says:

    “Boy this is big and ugly.”

    3b, You dont need a backyard when its in the basement.
    Just build out the walls far enough to leave a foot of grass on each border of the whole house.
    Because its not an eye sore when you are on the inside looking out!

  149. chicagofinance says:

    yikes says:
    November 25, 2009 at 2:31 pm
    repost because the link is so good …
    schumpter, i was reading this awesome article, and just found out where you got your name!
    this is one of the best pieces of journalism i’ve read this year.

    yikes: I read it. I think it is interesting, but what about it do you find compelling? The profiling by the reporter or the subject matter? I was concerned about bias by the reporter, but I think by the end he kind of played it down the middle, warts and all.

    To be clear, the issue of greatest importance is that Armstrong is a criminal, and if the article is a profile of him fine, but if you want to analyze his theories, then I think it important to note from my take that he appears to be dealing with sociopathy and possible mental illness.

    I will say that by principle I want to ignore technical analysis, but you can’t, because it means not being open minded and accepting all forms of data. There is a lot to be gained from insights into the human condition, and at the end of the day, the market is collectively humans, and computers programmed by humans, that drive price discovery.

    Still, don’t get excited by simple answers to really complex questions. At the end of the day, rules-of-thumb often leave you with your thumb up your a55.

  150. chicagofinance says:

    yikes says:
    November 25, 2009 at 3:56 pm
    also said that China won’t go into a death spiral like japan because – paraphrasing here – China still has massive room for growth (only 20% developed?).

    yikes: It also helps when the government is centrally planned in that system. In general, central planning is highly inefficient and ultimately doomed to failure, but in this case and at this time, it is kind of nice to have a dominant executive branch of government, and no checks and balances from the legislative and judicial branches. It speeds along everything, and requires little concern for details such as human life and long-term societal impact.

  151. chicagofinance says:

    As an aside, you can make the argument that the Soviet Union would have endured if oil prices hadn’t fallen off a table in the early 1980’s. History seems to chronicle it differently. However, all the evidence I need is how the Russians reacted in 2008 with oil at $150. They were salivating with imperialist tendencies again…..they are laying in wait for the next opportunity.

  152. confused in NJ says:

    Now that the Stock Market is being fueled by the Governments Printing Presses, how high will it go?

  153. Anon E. Moose says:

    Nom[100];

    Hell, If I’d have know I could get a house for free, I’d have bid a million for one four years ago.

    There was nothing in that opinion that “shocks the conscience”, unless holding a counterparty to their contract else foreclosing as provided in taht contract is now shocking.

    I’m going to be ill.

  154. Schumpeter says:

    I lifted my handle after reading an article in Mish about Schumpeterian economics.

  155. morpheus says:

    OK:
    Seller’s agent spoke to seller’s husband. I can only assume that this means that the written offer has been conveyed.

    We shall see. Apparently sellers do not operate in linear time as do buyers. When a buyer says respond with in X hours/days, sellers can respond when they like. When sellers say respond in X hours/days, buyers must respond within that period of time.

    I guess it is similar to “bistro-mathematics”–the study of how numbers behave differently in a restaurant as opposed to outside of a restaurant.

  156. Shore Guy says:

    Egads! The “flu” in 109 should have been flew.

    Need not to post at stop lights and need to proof.

  157. Veto That says:

    “he appears to be dealing with sociopathy and possible mental illness.”

    Chi, i got a similar vibe. When that Pi movie first came out, i remember thinking that these guys think they are onto something groundbreaking but they are really just driving themselves to insanity by overdosing on calculus. But that movie was good for other reasons.

  158. Veto That says:

    Morpheus, im all for hammering the sellers but it seems to me that the 24hr thing isnt going over well. Dont all offers expire within 48 hours of submission anyway?
    If your purpose is to come out swinging, why not just pencil in “your house smells” at the top of the offer?

  159. morpheus says:

    #161:
    I am not coming out swinging: I am just tired of being jerked around by sellers and trying to get an answer from them in a reasonable period of time. What has been happening is that I have been used in the past to establish a floor. Just respond to my offer and if I dont like your counter offer, I will walk away and bid on the next house.

    Sorry, I guess I am in a bad mood. I will go take a shower and then have a beer. That will make me feel better.

  160. Uncle Jay says:

    #148, 3b

    I can’t buy the home I want in Ridgewood….plus I can’t keep up with all the Hedge Fund and Private Equity guys…my kids would feel poor, you know me being a lowly CFO and all….

  161. Schumpeter says:

    morph (162)-

    In so many words, you are saying that you expect the seller to dance to your tune.

    Some sellers may do that; some may not. I can assure you, though, that 100% of them will not deal with you in any way in which they think they will be disadvantaged.

    If you come in with low offers, your offer will be used as a stalking horse. If other potential buyers bite, you weren’t ever going to get that house anyway. If other buyers don’t materialize, you might be in the game…once the seller gets over his own hurt feelings at you low offer. That generally won’t happen in a 24-48 hour time frame.

  162. d2b says:

    Clot 164-
    So how long should an offer, low ball or not, sit there until it expires? If one makes an offer and there is no response in 48 hours is the buyer free to consider the offer dead?

    Have you ever had someone counter an offer 3 or 4 weeks after it was presented?

  163. Schumpeter says:

    “Banks are stacking up late stage delinquencies in an attempt to manage charge offs. Having managed loan delinquencies I can attest that these two charts come as no surprise. As collection managers fight off late stage delinquencies they have to move more and more collectors to the “back end”. Almost without fail, these are the best collectors which can have the biggest impact.

    What happens is that as you back fill the early stage collectors with the new hires you end up having poorer effort on beating down that number. It can quickly become a death spiral creating the very problem you are trying to solve. Little discussion has been made of the vast army of collectors that banks must be hiring. As with any large wave of hiring it can be many quarters before they can start to have an impact.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/storm-clouds-horizon-early-stage-delinquencies

  164. Schumpeter says:

    “There is good reason for the Federal Reserve to revive inflation in the economy, but she don’t want a bear market in Treasuries. These two objectives aren’t compatible at this point, because we are way beyond the ability to control what inflates and what doesn’t. Either the Fed re-inflates and a bear market in Treasuries ensues, or the United States government has insufficient political will to re-inflate, and we enter a Japanese spiral of deflationary hell or worse.

    A treasury market bear will take the S&P to the fundamental low in this bear market. It will decimate HY and leveraged loans (theorization). Consumer credit will be in a constant downtrend. The financial system will suffer and downsize. A bear market in Treasuries IS deleveraging manifested. In a more positive sense, the bear market will begin the process of creative destruction.

    Gold screaming higher doesn’t necessarily imply a doomsday scenario, a currency crisis, or a variant apocalyptic vision. Gold is just a straddle option to hedge government recklessness and theft. It is an instrument to clip the tail risk in otherwise risk-minimal trades, because it is an excellent long in times of inflation and deflation. But it’s not enough. It generates no income, and it is certainly without risk itself.”

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/23155757/Treasuries-Since-1798

  165. Barbara says:

    162. Morpheus.

    Totally been there. I’ve had my offers used solely as counters to another interested party who was wavering. I will probably not give a 24 hr limit, but I will give it no more than a week and have it be made very clear that I am putting offers on multiple properties.

  166. Schumpeter says:

    d2b (165)-

    I don’t know. Every situation is different. Different actors, different personalities.

    “So how long should an offer, low ball or not, sit there until it expires? If one makes an offer and there is no response in 48 hours is the buyer free to consider the offer dead?”

    Yes. I’ve had negotiations start- and successfully conclude- on offers presented 2 to 3 months earlier.

    “Have you ever had someone counter an offer 3 or 4 weeks after it was presented?”

    BTW, I hope Frank chokes on a turkey bone. To everyone else: have a great Thanksgiving.

  167. 3b says:

    #163 Still better choices than Mid Par, such as Wyckoff, Allendale, Glen Rock, Harrington Pk, and others

  168. 3b says:

    #163 Uncle: Still better choices than Mid Park, such as Allendale, Wyckoff, Glen Rock, Harrington Pk, and others.

  169. chicagofinance says:

    160.Veto That says:
    November 25, 2009 at 7:27 pm
    Chi, i got a similar vibe. When that Pi movie first came out

    There was a movie?

  170. 3b says:

    #151 veto: I am not feeling the love on the inside of the house either.

  171. 3b says:

    #163 I do not agree. But still much better choices ou there than MP.

  172. chicagofinance says:

    162.morpheus says:
    November 25, 2009 at 8:36 pm
    #161:
    I am not coming out swinging: I am just tired of being jerked around by sellers and trying to get an answer from them in a reasonable period of time. What has been happening is that I have been used in the past to establish a floor. Just respond to my offer and if I dont like your counter offer, I will walk away and bid on the next house.

    Morph: You are trying to convert the incorrigible. You have to give them time to realize their inherent imbecility…..there is blood involved….if you get pissed and impatient…you WILL fail.

    What you are attempting to do is difficult and requires the attitude of a cold blooded killer….

  173. chicagofinance says:

    Morph: I just saw clot’s post..yeah..what he said…..

  174. chicagofinance says:

    169.Schumpeter says:
    November 25, 2009 at 10:04 pm
    BTW, I hope Frank chokes on a turkey bone.

    Strumpet: please clarify….just the act of choking or “to death”

  175. d2b says:

    I wouldn’t want to add additional drama to what can be an emotional decision in buying and selling a house. I’m not sure I would even respond to a low ball offer that has a 24 hour deadline.

    If I were making an offer, I would propably let the selling agent know that I have two houses to consider so I need an answer quickly.

    If I were selling, I probably I would respond to a serious offer right away just so that the decision is made.

    But if someone wants to hold a gun to my head, I’d probably be a bit of a pr1ck. I want to treats others well and I want them to do the same.

  176. danzud says:

    Is buying Jets tickets for our soldiers considered a war crime? How else can we explain $15 price?

  177. Veto That says:

    “There was a movie?”

    Chi, Yes, its referenced in that new yorker article. Armstrong says it was written about him but thats a dubious claim.
    Good flick. Indie film i believe.
    Here is the trailer… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQ1sZSCz47w

  178. Veto That says:

    “#151 veto: I am not feeling the love on the inside of the house either.”

    3b, If they are going to build that monstrosity, why not just buy a condo in a downtown area. That thing looks hideous on a suburban street.

  179. safeashouses says:

    #148 3b,

    Is that a house or a school, or a house designed to look like the local school?

  180. Uncle Jay says:

    #172, 3B—-why are you so against Midland Park? My wife is from Wyckoff, which is too far of a commute….and we just don’t feel we can be able to buy a 4BR 2 1/2 Bath Colonial in Ridgewood or Glen Rock for the price we can afford—say about $550k. Do you think we can?

  181. Uncle Jay says:

    Everything in Ridgewood or Glen Rock for $550K is either a 3BR ranch or a cape cod with no garage, or much of anything else. I’m not going to spend $550 on that. I’d rather rent, which is what I may end up doing in the long run anyways….

  182. Uncle Jay says:

    Everything in Ridgewood or Glen Rock for $550K is either a 3BR ranch or a cape cod with no garage, or much of anything else. I’m not going to spend $550 on that. I’d rather rent, which is what I may end up doing in the long run anyways….

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