From the Star Ledger:
Lenders are hard-pressed to keep up with the demand of short sales
Thinking he’d found a cheap vacation home, Louis Pallante in April bid $300,000 for a fixer-upper in Toms River.
And then he waited to hear from the seller. And waited. After finally learning six months later that his offer had been rejected, he upped his bid to $315,000. But before he could close on the property, it went into foreclosure, only adding to his frustration.
“I can’t get a number or a name or anything from anyone,” said Pallante, 55, a reinsurance claims manager from Belleville.
Like many New Jersey residents hunting for discounted real estate, Pallante is learning firsthand there is nothing short about the short-sale process, in which lenders unload properties for less than they’re owed and borrowers get their debt wiped clean.
That’s because deals must be approved by mortgage holders as well as other creditors, and the sale of the property can be held up for as much as six months as stakeholders haggle over how much money they’re owed, according to real estate lawyers, analysts and agents.
…
Nationwide, the number of short sales increased by 22.4 percent to 30,766 in the third quarter of 2009, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision.About one in 10 residential sales last year was a short sale, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Joe Zinman, chief executive of Aurora Financial Group in Marlton, said he used to deal with just one short sale at a time. Now, he might be handling as many as 15 at any given time.
“It has increased dramatically,” he said. “Understand that three, four years ago you had properties that were appreciating in value, at rather dramatic annual percentages, and you didn’t have a marketplace with this element of depreciation.”
…
Buyers, real estate agents and attorneys are playing a guessing game when it comes to figuring out how much a lender wants to unload a troubled property, said Barry Guberman, a Monmouth County real estate attorney.“The biggest reason why short sales don’t get approved is that the (bank) negotiator will say that the price is below market value,” Guberman said. “They will almost never tell you what figure they’re looking for.”
There are no guarantees a sale will go through once the process has begun, said Sal Poliandro, a Saddle River-based real estate agent who specializes in short sales. Mortgage holders can foreclose before a short sale is completed, he said.
“The short-sale process and the foreclosure process are two trains running on parallel tracks,” he said. “The fact that you’re trying to do a short sale doesn’t stop foreclosure.”
Frist
From the Daily Record:
Rockaway Twp. to furlough employees
Rockaway Township will be furloughing approximately 120 municipal employees for 12 days during this year starting Friday, business administrator Gregory Poff said.
Police officers, police dispatchers and a municipal utilities worker who has the unique responsibility of monitoring all pump stations and water facilities will be exempt from the furloughs, Poff said.
Rather than taking week-long furloughs, a common practice in the private sector, employees will be required to take off one day at a time, preventing them from receiving state unemployment benefits.
The furloughs will generate $330,000 in savings for Rockaway Township, Poff said.
From the Record:
Christie says he will cut off state aid to struggling N.J. cities
Gov.-elect Chris Christie said Wednesday he will cut off state funding to struggling cities, saying they must cut spending and no longer rely on Trenton.
But before Christie takes office, the state is set to give about $72 million to Camden, Bridgeton, Union City and Paterson in aid designed to keep property taxes from rising while maintaining basic government services.
Christie also said cuts to the $1.5 billion in regular give-backs to cities and towns across the state are “on the table” as he prepares a painful budget due March 16.
The state budgeted $141.9 million this fiscal year in aid for struggling cities and towns, down from $170.3 million, but Christie said he is putting municipalities “on notice” the money will not be there at all next year.
“You better budget based upon what you can raise, because we don’t have the money to continue over and over again to shovel out extraordinary, special municipal aid to municipalities who have not responsibly budgeted, no matter where you’re located in the state,” he said. “The state can no longer be your court of last resort. We are broke.”
From Bloomberg:
Job Growth Erodes as Housing Bust Pushes Mobility to Record Low
Raul Lopez, laid off from three construction jobs since October 2007, is focusing his search for work near Antioch, California, because his $392,000 mortgage is almost triple the price his home there would sell for today.
“If it wasn’t for the house, I’d probably move closer to Oakland, Hayward, San Leandro, places where there are jobs,” said Lopez, 36, who is married with four daughters.
The ability to relocate for employment, which helped the U.S. recover quickly after previous deep recessions, is the latest victim of the housing bust. About 12.5 percent of Americans moved in the year ended March 2009, the second-lowest ever, estimates Brookings Institution demographer William Frey, after a 60-year record low of 11.9 percent the previous year.
…
Some households are staying put because they owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth; others have trouble selling houses in depressed areas, economists say. The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas was down 29 percent in October from its July 2006 peak.
“One of the hallmarks of America’s labor market is a high level of mobility,” said Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, in a Jan. 3 interview in Atlanta, where he was speaking to an economics conference. “We are about to lose that.”
From the Courier Post:
Pa. moves closer to table games
ATLANTIC CITY — Casinos here, already struggling in a weak economy, soon may feel even more pressure from out-of-state rivals.
Pennsylvania’s House of Representatives on Wednesday approved a bill that would allow table games at the state’s casinos. Gov. Ed Rendell has said he’ll sign it into law.
And a study commissioned by Delaware officials says building two new casinos would be “most advantageous” for state finances. Delaware, which already has three racinos, could add new gaming halls in the state’s northeastern and southwestern corners, the study says.
Atlantic City’s 11 casinos likely would feel relatively little impact from the new casinos in Delaware — but that’s largely because they’re already being pounded by competition from Pennsylvania.
…
Atlantic City’s casino win, which had risen steadily in earlier years, dipped from $5.2 billion in 2006 to $4.9 billion in 2007 when Pennsylvania gaming halls came on board.
Casino win — which represents revenue, and not profit — has fallen more sharply since then.
It dropped to $3.67 billion for the first 11 months of 2009, the latest period for which figures are available. That was down 13.5 percent from the year-earlier period.
From HousingWire:
CMBS Delinquencies Reach New All-Time High
For the first time since the industry began forming commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), delinquencies reached above 6%, according to a report from Trepp, which studies commercial real estate trends.
For the month of December, 6.07% of CMBS loans fell behind by 30 days or more, up from 5.65% in November and a far climb from 1.21% in December 2008. That’s a 500% increase in one year, according to the report.
Trepp analysts aren’t the only ones noting the surging delinquencies in CMBS. Data from the credit-rating agency Realpoint showed the delinquent unpaid balance rose more than 16% in November to $37.93bn. According to the report, the climb was “an astounding” 440% from a year earlier.
…
“Hit hard by the loss of businesses and employment, a good deal of retail, office, and industrial space is standing vacant. In addition, many businesses have cut expenses by renegotiating existing leases,” Duke said.
I’m really hoping today is the day that prices correct another 10% in NJ.
From the NY Times:
Some at Fed See a Need to Do More for Housing
Despite extensive government intervention in the housing market, some policy makers at the Federal Reserve are worried that even more might need to be done.
The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s mid-December meeting, released on Wednesday, reflected a lingering wariness about the strength of the recovery in light of high unemployment and substantial slack in the economy.
At the same time, unease is growing that a tentative comeback in the housing market could fall apart as a tax credit for home buyers expires and the Fed’s program to hold down mortgage rates comes to a close.
Concern over housing deepened Wednesday with the release of new data showing that long-term interest rates were rising rapidly from their historic lows, while mortgage applications to purchase houses were falling. Applications are now at their lowest level in 12 years.
Other signs of stress in real estate have become apparent in the last few weeks, although most economists say any downturn will be relatively mild.
If they are wrong, and the modest pace of economic growth slows or mortgage markets significantly deteriorate, “a few members” of the Federal Open Market Committee believe that “more policy stimulus” may be desirable, the Fed minutes said.
The answer is we need to build a casino in the meadowlands or newark. how about above the secaucus transfer station. and if they throw in prost!tution, so much the better.
The answer is we need to build a casino in the meadowlands or newark. how about above the secaucus transfer station. and if they throw in prost!tution, so much the better.
grim (3)-
I’m really looking forward to several years’ worth of zero-sum, scorched-earth policy emanating from the gubnor’s office. This is going to be fun.
Christie may be a doofus, but it appears that he enjoys a good fight. Bully for him!
The answer is we need to build a casino in the meadowlands or newark.
Bingo!
Xanadu was always intended to be the mall attached to a huge casino! Why else would Colony Capital have been involved?
One more stim for housing should finish off my real estate business.
Sugar high, indeed.
Peter Orszag, playa.
Who knew?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=aL4WCMDvayRA
Bloomberg
“Principal Cuts on More Lenders Menus as U.S. Foreclosures Rise”
“Banks may be forced to resort to a remedy they’ve been trying to avoid – principal reductions…”
What a mess…
15 – If they start cutting principals, will i finally revolt or just start watching american idol again? guess it depends on whether we have enough money to pay the cable bill.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126282425648418817.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLETopStories
Can’t get the whole scoop – subscriber content…
“U.S. Now a Renters’ Market With Apartment Vacancy Rate at 30-year high, Landlords Cut Prices 3% in 2009”
if you are smart and start talking to the bank one would be suprised how you can get a principle reduction and love it.
on top of that , you get to walk
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/economy/story/81854.html
“Schwarzeneggar wants to spur new home
building with tax credit”
Uh….more houses? Oh yeah, that is just what CA needs…
Cindy (19)-
Pretty soon, your state is going to run out of healthy veins into which it can keep injecting speedballs.
” how about above the secaucus transfer station. and if they throw in prost!tution, so much the better”
Then rhey can rename the exit: 15XXX. Or sell the naming rights to some p0rn company and we can have something like Debbie Does Dallas Casino at 15XXX
Grim et al,
Would love to know your opinion on the following:
Is it possible that the economy deteriorates so much in the next few years that homes become an illiquid asset?
nekkid toll takers–vetted by strip club owners. or voted on online so only the hottest get the job. we’d have to throw in some guys for the g@ys and women who like that stuff. but as long as the lanes are clearly marked, we should be fine.
homes are already illiquid. all one has to do
is go and try to sell yours .
20 – Clot – Let’s have a credit for this…let’s float a bond for that…
Just keeping my head down – plugging away….
I will not be the least surprised that in the next 15 years gambling, marijuana, and prostitution will be legal in most cities in this country. $ will trump Bible thumping.
HE (26)-
Evidently, you haven’t spent much time down South.
26 – Honestly HEHEHE – I have been wondering what is holding CA back. They must see all of the revenue leave the state for Nevada. We are known as a “sin” state as it is….we may as well be making some money off of it…
Cindy
How are you feeling? I hope you’re fully recovered by now.
I was up in North Jersey the other day. Gawd that Zanadu thing is an eyesore !!
I would have loved to be in the pitch meeting for that project when they put the scale model on the conference room table….”And we can paint the exterior with THIS color scheme!”
Gambling Casinos in there would only work if the changed the decor to Late 80’s AC Chintz.
AC would crumble if a casino opened In the Meadowlands.
Cue bulldozers.
29- Lost – Pretty good, thanks for asking.
Today marks my 3rd week out of the hospital after a 3-day stay. When I get home at night, I just rest. My day wears me out.
They are not allowing me to do extra duty. I am sent home as soon as the day is over. The biggest problem – My inability to sleep – six hours max.
I have a follow-up xray planned for the 14th. Hopefully – all is well.
MarketWatch:
BIS summons bankers to discuss risk fears: report
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=7919FAE0-4290-4666-8F8B-18C70A03D5BB
“The report said Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) CEO Lloyd Blankfein and Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) , were invited but don’t plan to attend.”
Casinos in the Meadowlands would take away the last of the playas going to Atlantic City. Between Foxwoods, Xanadu and now Pennsy….who is going to travel to AC ?? They would have the market cornered on PineBillies from Burlington county.
At least the buses doing 80 mph on the Parkway would be a thing of the past.
As someone who’s spent much time in Nashville, I can tell you bible thumping and depravity go hand in hand. They feed off each other.
As an aside, there’s nothing about Christie that screams repression to me.
Jobless claims up 1k to 434k.
32 Cindy
I’m glad to hear they’re not trying to overwork you. Here, that’s not the case.
I hope the X-ray is clear and is well. I just bought a lavender aromatherapy roll-on like thing from Bath and Body Works. It’s really helpful. Maybe that could help you?
37
That should say all is well.
Here’s an interesting story from this morning’s Asbury Park Press…
http://www.app.com/article/20100106/NEWS/1060347/1004/NEWS01/Part+of+Colts+Neck+mansion+may+be+demolished
“An expansion of a McMansion built illegally in place of the historic Holly Bush Farm carriage house may face the wrecking ball, based on a ruling issued Wednesday by a state Superior Court appeals panel.
Former Staten Island resident Donald Fewer, a credit cash and derivative trader, purchased the 5-acre Conover Road site in 2004. Although township officials and many residents opposed the action, a demolition crew destroyed the carriage house, thought to date back to 1712, the township’s oldest house.”
What a surprise!!
Geithner’s New York Fed Told AIG to Limit Swaps Disclosure
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXIvW4igKV38&pos=1
How about Newark starts taxing drugs to raise revenues? I think they could eliminate property taxes with all the new revenue.
after delaware opens the sport book, ac
could be finished in its current configuration . too many casinos.
maybe they should just make it one on going
tv show to compete with jersey shore.
“How about Newark starts taxing drugs to raise revenues?”
Don’t be surprised if certain drugs are legalized and taxed in the not too distant future. The “war on drugs” is a major league waste of money perpetrated by vested interests such as the private prison industry (plus it helps find a place for the product of inner city education systems – ill educated young men with little or no economic prospects – but at least the teachers union members have their pensions). If societal mood continues to decline and social unrest rises local and federal police resources are going to be needed to quell riots etc. Moreover they’ll need a source of funding due to decreased property and income tax resources.
I have been working months on this big piece of business. Anyway, we just went live on 12/31 and the first stream of revenue came through….$3.59. It is just circumstance but I am ROFLMAO….
That’s happened to me before. ;p
But sometimes you just have to do the project because
-the idea is so grand,
-you know it CAN be done,
-in your heart, you don’t give a crap if nobody will buy it because it was just so cool to figure out how to get it done.
Hope your volume comes through.
“In a pathological example of nearly clinical hypocrisy, PIMCO’s Bill Gross yesterday dedicated 4 meandering essay pages full of polemical ramblings to the characterization of America’s sad political and financial hybrid reality. Yet the billionaire’s saddest message is precisely the self-deluded aggrandizement that Gross decries yet willfully takes advantage of every single day. Because after bemoaning the fate of America’s broken political system, and ridiculing the Federal Reserve’s kleptocratic-friendly ways, it is precisely people like the PIMCO chairman that are most guilty of taking advantage of every single loophole presented to them, even as they criticize just this activity. This, beyond all the petty trivialities that Gross discusses, is precisely what is most wrong with America – at this point everyone, and especially Mr. Gross, knows too well that the wealth transfer from the middle class to the elite 1% of society will not end until such time as America itself defaults. Yet having the very people that benefit the most from this, write non-apologetic letters in which they criticize the very system that lets them walk home every day with an extra zero in their bank account simply due to their special connections within this very broken system, is beyond reproach.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exercises-supreme-hypocrisy-bill-gross-edition
re: Casino in the Meadowlands.
The Legislation has been out there for a while to allow slot machines at the Race Track, former Gov. Richard J. Codey was pushing for it when he was in office.
New Jersey’s gaming revenues have decreased 31 percent since 2006, and we are now going to lose at least 2 Billion in Tax revenue over the next decade.
I am pretty sure this latest shot fired across the bow of New Jersey will mean war with Pennsylvania.
Clot,
I was thinking the same thing as that Zerohedge article yesterday when I first heard Gross’ maniacal rantings.
Sean,
War is on, check out the legislation that came out of assembly on Monday requiring state workers to reside in state. Estimates are that 8% if current state workers live out of state, I’m sure a big chunk of those are in PA.
Nom – when factoring in the Compound, what 3 aspects of location come into play?
* close to fresh water supply?
* dense woods vs. less woodsy? (vision, sunlight, etc)
* on a hill?
* heartland vs. proximity to the coast?
* area w/ survivable winter vs. state w/ no winter?
just curious
Perhaps COAH will be revised to add state worker housing to the mix. I say put it in Mendham!
Bill Gross is an evil. However, his Total Return Fund is a great bond fund and is open to all in their 401K. I have some money in it, not much like 20K. Mainly just so I get his prospectus and see what he is up to. I got my YE 401K info from the Total Return Fund the other day and was suprised many of my own cusips match what he is holding. Bill Gross must be lurking here cause I made my bond purchases out in open and listed cusips, he kept his sercret.
GMAC, Ford, Citi, AIG, FITB, GNW etc. All had stock that ranged from 30 cents to one dollar at the low and bonds that were as low as 15-50.
1,000 shares of these stocks could be had for as little as $300 hundred bucks and a $5,000 bond for as little as $750.
The little guy had plenty a chance to get in if they truly though the govt bailing them out would make there stocks and bonds pop. Yet the little guy given $300 bucks would blow it on a night out. They don’t invest. They don’t want to pay taxes and they don’t want to see others make money. Yes the top 5% took advantage of the vast majority of the gains from the taxpayers monies, yet the top 5% pay the vast majority of taxes in the USA. The unemployed basically pay no Federal Taxes so although they did not capitalize on the stock gains from bailed out companies they did not pay for it either.
Bill Gross and Warren Buffet are at the end of their shelf life.
Damn. Gator got to my computer again I see.
Q. What does a toothless 60 year old crack ho under the 59th street bridge at 4am have in common with ChicagoFinance?
They both charge $3.59 for their services.
chicagofinance says:
January 7, 2010 at 9:08 am
I have been working months on this big piece of business. Anyway, we just went live on 12/31 and the first stream of revenue came through….$3.59. It is just circumstance but I am ROFLMAO….
Bill Gross and Warren Buffett can’t die soon enough.
Sad news of the day…
http://www.nj.com/entertainment/celebrities/index.ssf/2010/01/new_york_post_artie_lange_used.html
[48] grim
Having worked in Trenton, I can tell you that nearly everyone that works there lives in PA. At least it seems that way judging by the traffic over those bridges.
[49] yikes
All of the above. And then some.
We really do have to have a Nompound GTG sometime.
[48] grim
Having worked in Trenton, I can tell you that nearly everyone that works there lives in PA. At least it seems that way judging by the traffic over those bridges.
War is on, check out the legislation that came out of assembly on Monday requiring state workers to reside in state. Estimates are that 8% if current state workers live out of state, I’m sure a big chunk of those are in PA.
Grim,
8% of what? What’s the total number of employees?
Frank yeah sad the fat pig didn’t kill himself
guys a loser alcoholic
[49] yikes
There are a lot of other factors, such as taxes, political stability, demographics (on several levels), and even state gun laws.
If I ever lose my job, I do plan to consult on this topic, and perhaps organize a promotion to market ready-made “nompounds” for potential partners in my target cohort.
[48] grim
$20 says that the residency bill never sees Christie’s desk.
Go on Oprah: “Be Your Own Nompound”.
I bet Christie ends up living in PA.
Cindy,
Mrs. Shore and I just did our part to help the finances of Caalifornia — we sent in our 4th quarter estimated tax payment to the Franchise Tax Board.
Whenever I write that check I laugh, it is like I have a franchise from the state.
Hoboken market on fire 10 UC last week.
http://hudson.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=0ae0795b-e880-4574-b746-0c3357d1b38a&Report=Yes
Time for Frank to pull an Artie Lange.
In addition to the Casino’s. NJ needs to move to allow sports gambling. It will not only bring customers back to AC but allow it at the race tracks also. Set up an area with a bar & restaurant and numerous TV’s. It will revive the race tracks. Never mind the additional tax revenue.
I love PIMCO. Up almost 300% on the Pimco High Income Fund, and still yielding something like 50% on that badboy.
#67,
time for your to quit the RE business.
#68,
Artie would still be fine if he could gamble in Hoboken.
#45 Clot
That argument against Gross is the same one I have been having with Nom, Jamil et al on companies treating the tax code like a pinata.
The big companies complain that they don’t get enough treats out of it or that they don’t get them fast enough. They never share what they get and never let the smaller ones get in on the action.
“Artie would still be fine if he could gamble in Hoboken.”
He is gambling, he owns a condo there.
Option ARM Modifications Find Little Success, Resets Still Loom Despite Lessons Learned
Industry experts can easily identify the problems with option ARMs that were made from 2004 to 2008, but modifying these loans, many of which are in default or underwater, is more difficult to do. An estimated $500 billion option ARMs are outstanding, and about $150 billion of them are due to reset over the next two years. Most were made by lenders as the mortgage market bubble reached its…
#8 grim: From the NY Times articel. I espeecially like this quote from Mr. Yun:
“The March deadline is artificial and should not hold firm,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. “Maybe we’ll need this stimulus until May or autumn”
The NAR will sucessfully lobby to have the tax credit extended again, until the end of 2010, followed by rolling extensions form there. It will in effect become permannent.
Principal Cuts on Lender Menus as Foreclosures Rise (Update1)
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) — Efforts by U.S. banks to help distressed homeowners have focused mainly on temporary fixes such as interest-rate reductions that may only put off the day of reckoning, despite policy makers wanting them to do more.
Banks may be forced to resort to a remedy they’ve been trying to avoid — principal reductions — as another wave of foreclosures looms and payments on risky loans rise, Bloomberg BusinessWeek magazine reports in the Jan. 18 issue.
While interest-rate reductions or extending loan terms reduce homeowners’ monthly payments, they don’t give much comfort to borrowers who owe more on their homes than their properties are worth. Borrowers who don’t have equity in their homes are more likely to hand over the keys when they run into trouble. “The evidence is irrefutable,” Laurie Goodman, senior managing director of Amherst Securities Group in New York, testified before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee on Dec. 8. “Negative equity is the most important predictor of default.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=aL4WCMDvayRA
re #68 – Whenever I drive down to AC I think I am going to take a wrong turn and end up in Valkenvania.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nothing_but_Trouble_%281991_film%29
3B,
Can you share your thoughts on Oradell? Schools, taxes, traffic, commute, etc? I believe it’s in your neck of the woods.
clot: Completely asinine rantings from a blogger desperate for attention. More useless than provocative. Akin to Page 6 of the NY Post.
The Condition-Code Red says:
January 7, 2010 at 9:44 am
Yet having the very people that benefit the most from this, write non-apologetic letters in which they criticize the very system that lets them walk home every day with an extra zero in their bank account simply due to their special connections within this very broken system, is beyond reproach.
Mortgage Modifications: Help or Hindrance?
there’s not much evidence that the current scheme of mortgage modification is making things worse. But there’s also not much evidence that any differently designed system would have made things any better. We may have to look for other ways to ease the pain of those whose houses are more than they can afford.
And we might start by trying to make it easier to get out of houses, as well as stay in them. Instead of encouraging people to throw their savings into hopeless modifications, maybe the government should be trying to streamline the process of arranging for a short sale so that people can walk away with a little savings in the bank (and on their credit report) to help them get a fresh start.
Will they hoist Drumthwacket off its foundation and cart it to PA?
The Condition-Code Red says:
January 7, 2010 at 10:34 am
I bet Christie ends up living in PA.
2010 – THE TIPPING POINT
To date, the Federal Reserve has printed well over a trillion dollars in an attempt to evade a deflationary collapse, including a $700 billion bank bailout and a $787 billion stimulus package. And then there was $3 billion wasted on Cash for Clunkers ($24,000 per vehicle), $28 billion squandered on the $8,500 homebuyer tax credit, and an artificial suppressing of interest rates to 0 percent with $300 billion of mortgage-backed securities purchased by the Federal Reserve and Treasury. And all we’ve received is a 2.2 percent increase in GDP? The fourth quarter of 2009 will show a positive GDP as government spending and Federal Reserve quantitative easing have continued at a rapid clip. As the government stimulus winds down in the first half of 2010, the true weakness of the economy will reveal itself. I expect a double dip recession commencing by June of 2010.
Congress will pass the Obama healthcare plan by the end of January. The outrage will be palpable. Obama will then announce another stimulus program and call it a “jobs program.” This will cost another $200 billion. In February, the government will formally take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These unprecedented reckless interventions in our supposedly free markets will lead to huge Democratic losses in the 2010 Congressional elections. They will lose 50 seats in the House and 6 seats in the Senate. As the economy deteriorates the stock market will drop by 30 percent in the first half of 2010. After the Republicans regain power in Washington DC, the stock market will rally.
82. The Fed bought 1.07 trillion MBS to date. They will buy 1.25 trillion by March.
Electing Republicans isnt going to change a thing it will only slow the demise. The real issue is the Fed Reserve and corruption.
Until Americans grow a spine and man up to the depression thats coming we will never recover. The ideology of the progressives (aka communism) must be thoroughly destroyed by example. This will be the price we pay to have our kids grow up free.
48 “War is on, check out the legislation that came out of assembly on Monday requiring state workers to reside in state. 8% of current state workers live out of state.”
Grim, ready for this? the proposed legislation only applies to NEW employees.
NJ – Housing predictor
City – Forecast
Newark − 11.7%
Trenton − 8.9%
Atlantic City − 13.1%
Edison − 7.9%
Ocean City − 10.3%
Jersey City − 9.3%
Just over the state border from New York, Newark is ailing in the worst housing crash since the Great Depression. Home sales rose temporarily as a result of the first time buyers’ tax credit only to soften. The pain of the fall out from the financial crisis can be seen on just about every face with more bad news expected in the coming year as housing prices deflate a forecast 11.7% on average. Foreclosures are nagging at the market and are projected to increase.
But where there’s the verge of collapse in Newark, there’s a joyful renaissance going on in Jersey City. The community won’t be returning to the boom days any time soon, but new projects finished before the collapse of the real estate market give Jersey City a modern appealing appearance. Still, property values are forecast to decline another 9.3% in 2010.
More affordable homes have drawn newcomers to Edison to make it one of the stronger markets in the state with rising home sales. However, lower prices don’t make it any easier for move-up buyers to make a move with downward pricing pressure. The expansion of the federal tax credit to move-up buyers could aid in the state’s recovery, but the downturn could take years to find a bottom. Edison is forecast to see average home prices deflate another 7.9% in 2010.
Ocean City is New Jersey’s premiere beach resort, where vacationers flock to the beach during summer vacation. Its two-and-a-half mile boardwalk offers views of the Atlantic Ocean that are equaled in few other east-coast communities. Yet, the housing bust has been tough on Ocean City, and is forecast to sustain another rough year with deflation averaging 10.3%.
Now that’s how you stop people speeding!
A Swiss millionaire has been handed down a record speeding fine of $290,000 (£180,000) by a court.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8446545.stm
Is the supertanker finally turning?
Homebuilder Lennar posts profit for Q4
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.aspx?Feed=AP&Date=20100107&ID=10965645&Symbol=LEN
I said last year that anyone left standing at this point or have large cash reserves, should be over the worst of it. Time to pull their report and run the numbers to see what they look like.
#87 Without the tax credit, they would have claimed a loss. Tax credit will become permanent.
RFQ: Historic Preservation Consultant
The Township of Montclair, an urban suburb of 38,000 people in Essex County, New Jersey, seeks an historic preservation consultant to provide services to the Montclair Historic Preservation Commission, which will include evening meeting attendance, application review, meetings and telephone calls with applicants and any special projects requested by the Planning Director or the Commission, including the designation of any additional historic districts. Municipal historic preservation experience preferred. Limited office hours at the municipal building are desirable to facilitate service to the public. The contract will be on a month-to-month basis.
Kindly send your quote for services which should include your hourly rates and a monthly fee for basic services. Special projects may be quoted separately. Send information to Karen A. Kadus, PP/AICP, Planning Director, 205 Claremont Avenue, Montclair, NJ 07042 no later than Friday, January 22, 2010.
Great!!!!! I hope my screaming from November 2008 to September 2009 to put some Junk in your Trunk helped enouraged your great investment.
What is scary that people who jumped into junk bonds and equity with their downpayment money last year (which is a no no technically) have doubled or tripled their downpayment funds. The people who correctly kept their money safe in money markets are getting fried. This happened in the 1990s and from 2003-2006.
The opposite happened in 2000-2002 and 2007-2008 when people with their downpayment money in stocks or junk bonds got hammered and cash was king.
Rate rose in 1999 but housing was headed up. When you are cashing out stock options left and right at 300% saving for a house is real easy.
Alap says:
January 7, 2010 at 10:49 am
I love PIMCO. Up almost 300% on the Pimco High Income Fund, and still yielding something like 50% on that badboy.
89 – do you think I should include in my application that I own a blow torch?
For Cindy, #17
U.S. Now a Renters’ Market
With Apartment-Vacancy Rate at 30-Year High, Landlords Cut Prices 3% in 2009
By NICK TIMIRAOS
Apartment vacancies hit a 30-year high in the fourth quarter, and rents fell as landlords scrambled to retain existing tenants and attract new ones.
The vacancy rate ended the year at 8%, the highest level since Reis Inc., a New York research firm that tracks vacancies and rents in the top 79 U.S. markets, began its tally in 1980.
Rents fell 3% last year, according to Reis, led by declines in San Jose, Calif., Seattle, San Francisco and other cities that had brisk growth until the recession.
[snip]
In New York City, the vacancy rate improved by 0.1 percentage point for the second straight quarter, but around 60% of rental buildings dropped their rents in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter. Effective rents — which include concessions such as one month of free rent — fell 5.6% in New York last year, the worst since Reis began tracking the data in 1990.
Landlords now must entice tenants to renew leases. “We’ll shampoo their carpets. We’ll paint accent walls. We’ll add Starbucks cards,” said Richard Campo, chief executive of Camden Property Trust, a Houston-based real-estate investment trust that owns 63,000 units. He said the first half of 2010 should be “pretty ugly,” but was optimistic the sector would pick up later in the year.
Few markets have been spared. During the fourth quarter, vacancies increased in 52 markets, while they improved in 17 and stayed flat in 10. Vacancies increased most sharply for the year in Tucson, Ariz.; Charlotte, N.C.; and Lexington, Ky.
[snip]
Landlords were also hit last year by competition from a wave of new supply that hit the market. The 120,000 units that came onto the market last year, including some busted condo projects that had to be converted to rentals, represented the most new construction since 2003, according to Reis.
Many of those developments had secured financing before credit markets seized up. The credit crunch has frozen most new development, which means that new apartment completions should fall by half in 2011. That’s one potential silver lining for apartment owners: The limited new supply should give them the ability to boost rents quickly whenever job growth returns.
[snip]
Marcus & Millichap is to release a separate report on Friday that forecasts a further 2% to 3% drop in apartment rents over the next year, most of which will be concentrated over the next six months. The report forecasts Washington, D.C., will be the healthiest rental market in 2010 for the second straight year.
Government efforts to prop up the housing market also threaten the apartment sector by making it easier for some renters to buy homes. Some landlords have reported a slight uptick in renters moving out to buy homes. Around 13% of Camden Property’s move-outs last summer left to buy homes, up from 11% at the beginning of the year. But that is still roughly half of the rate seen during the housing boom, when mortgage standards were much looser. “During the housing boom days, you had people who weren’t qualified to rent but could buy a half-million-dollar home,” said Alexander Goldfarb, an analyst at Sandler O’Neill & Partners LP.
Thanks to falling home prices and record low mortgage rates, it now costs less to own than it has in the past decade on a mortgage-payment-to-rent basis. But falling rents are expected to offset some of the recent improvement in affordability, making renting more attractive than owning in some markets.
#78 Doyle: Good town over all. Schools good. Ongoing battle with River Edge over regional school funding (middle/high school). Oradell pays more but sends less kids. Oradell wants a more equitable funding scheme, which would negatively impact River Edge (even higher taxes) Very little rental (apartment) housing in town, as opposed to River Edge.Taxes are in many cases lower than River Edge. Good commute to NYC (train town).
90 – I was onto PHK for a while, but your screaming did encourage me to dabble into individual bonds and not just the ETF. Still riding high on that Cap One you shouted out.
And yeah I put a pretty decent chunk into PHK when it was down between $3-$4. Figured that at the price, and with all the bonds its holding, the gov’t would have to let every bank and car company fail. Clearly that wasn’t happening.
The correct financial jargon for Lennar’s profit is “garbanzo beans”.
PGC says:
January 7, 2010 at 11:50 am
Is the supertanker finally turning?
I said last year that anyone left standing at this point or have large cash reserves, should be over the worst of it. Time to pull their report and run the numbers to see what they look like.Lennar also said it posted a profit in its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings as the homebuilder benefited from an adjustment in its income taxes.
The tax gain reported in the fourth quarter came from a change in federal accounting rules that allowed the company to reverse previous writedowns of deferred tax assets.
Without the tax benefit, the Miami-based homebuilder would have lost $284.9 million, or $1.15 per share. The tax benefit was offset by charges totaling 89 cents per share related to adjustments in the value of land and other write-offs.
Anyone have a clue on GE and why it just exploded at 11AM?
3b (75)-
Does not matter. The RE industry has been killed, and it will take 20-40 years for it to come back.
Only thing to do now is dive into the trough and snarf up as much of the festering remnants as possible.
Chi (81)-
Drumthwacket is uninhabitable. That’s why NJ governors choose not to live there.
Perfect metaphor for NJ. Looks great…historic…useless.
Stu (89)-
I say we cruise missile Montclair’s historic homes.
Cool, Cap one is a rock solid company that had to issue some bonds at sky high coupons that are riding high and will be for a long time.
Times have changed so much that I sold Soveign Bank and NCC Bank bonds yesterday at 102 and 106. Still scratching my eyes that one year ago those boys were almost broke.
What is next for us in our search for yield? All I see that makes sense lately is sporadic odd lot long term munis that pop up once or twice a week with a 5% yield, that is like around 8.5% taxable equivallent.
ING is doing a big bond offering today and I think that may have attractive yield.
Alap says:
January 7, 2010 at 12:30 pm
90 – I was onto PHK for a while, but your screaming did encourage me to dabble into individual bonds and not just the ETF. Still riding high on that Cap One you shouted out.
And yeah I put a pretty decent chunk into PHK when it was down between $3-$4. Figured that at the price, and with all the bonds its holding, the gov’t would have to let every bank and car company fail. Clearly that wasn’t happening.
Don’t know about GE but MI, EK, and S also on tear this week and last week all three were like broke.
zion and mbi also going nuts today
grim
“He still bitter over having to vacate his squat? Or was the family upset they couldn’t unload mom’s house for a fortune?”
Probably both, although it was really because I stopped paying rent the last five months of our lease when they failed to attempt to mitigate (we notified them almost a year in advance).
They were the worst landlords I’ve ever had (and as someone who Rentsalot, I’ve had many).
oh – and in response to “where in NOLA?” – uptown, just off St. Charles.
They’ve finally dropped their asking price 20%; still no takers for their hunk of junk.
BBBY earnings were crazy good last night so I think Sears is moving in lockstep. Can’t explain GE, but all of the big banks and financials (which is really what GE is) are moving today. Perhaps it was the expectation that Ben will keep interest rates at 0 too long inflating an equity bubble, especially considering that the Britts just decided not to raise theirs today?
Crazy the Fianancial Mutual Funds are still roaring in 2010. Inflation is coming back rates are going up, we all can’t be rich. What’s next housing. Soon we all can aford million dollar homes as the kmart clerks day-trade.
John. Here is my bond of the day.
Verizon. Ticker: VZ
Darn thing yields almost a 6% dividend. That compares with the yield on their 30 yr debt, which is odd if you ask me.
and i wouldnt put much value in having priority claim to assets as a bond holder because i see the chance of a VZ default as remote.
ChiFi, you worked for att right? Care to comment? The ceos negative earnings guidance has created a monster buying opportunity in my opinion. Ive been buying the heck out of it and it was one of my portfolio winners last year.
/pump and dump concluded
I like it, here is my bond of day, NJ muni totally tax free withe a 7.5 tax free yield, for those in 40% combined tax bracked fed/state that is almost a 13% taxable equivalent.
TOBACCO SETTLEMENT FIN CRP N J
TOB STLMT A/B SER 07-1A SENIOR B/E DD 1/29/07 F/C 6/1/07 R/MD 5.00 06/01/2041
$69.964 CUSIP:
888808DF6
Maturity Date:06/01/to Call(%):
Yield to Maturity 7.500:
Coupon Rate (%):5.0
THis is 2nd place with a 6.9% yield
NEW JERSEY HEALTH CARE FACS
F/A REV RFDG-ST BARNABAS-MED CTR-A-MBIA B/E OID D7/1/98 R/MD 4.75 07/01/2028
$77.739 CUSIP:Maturity Date:
07/01/28
what ever happened to mike morgan.
did he not cover housing ,, short?
Alert: 2010 EMT Conference Takeaways – Presenter: Ivan Seidenberg, *
* Chairman and Chief Executive Officer * > Verizon indicated EPS would be down $0.13-$0.15 in FY09, versus *
* our estimate and consensus of down $0.09 to $2.45, implying a *
* fourth quarter EPS range of $0.53-$0.55 versus our estimate and *
* consensus of $0.59, owing partly to better subscriber growth in *
* wireless and higher spending on advertising. *
* > Verizon expects 4Q/09 postpaid net adds to be significantly higher *
* than 1 million versus our estimate of around 900k. The company also *
* expects to recognize its strongest performance ever for wholesale *
* during 4Q. *
* > The company does not see the economy getting better or worse, with *
* employment remaining a key issue to watch. *
* *
* > Data is the key revenue growth driver for the mobile business and *
* expects it could contribute 50-60% of revenue over the long-term. *
* *
* > Verizon currently averages under 30% penetration in its FiOS *
* regions, while the company would like to reach roughly 35-40% over *
* time. *
* > We maintain our Buy rating on Verizon, as we believe Verizon *
* should benefit from the completed Alltel acquisition, improving *
* FiOS scale, and the potential to cut further costs. We also believe *
* the company’s network investment strategy to build a premium *
* fiber-based network within the consumer segment and to retain a *
* robust wireless data network platform can fuel further revenue *
* share gains in 2010.
Veto That says:
January 7, 2010 at 1:15 pm
ChiFi, you worked for att right? Care to comment? The ceos negative earnings guidance has created a monster buying opportunity in my opinion. Ive been buying the heck out of it and it was one of my portfolio winners last year.
/pump and dump concluded
Vito: I will not comment regarding whether or not to buy any stock. I will only make some observations of VZ and T relative to each other….
Both have a utility component – old wireline service rapidly disappearing, but still a fundamental source of cash.
AT&T is sole owner of wireless sub, whereas VZ is merely majority owner of VZ Wireless.
VZ has invested substantially more capital into the FiOS initiative whereas T is much farther behind there. That said, it is feasible that the public will bypass digital wiring a go full bore into WiFi.
VZ Wireless is considered to have a vastly superior network.
iPhone is exclusive on AT&T but this expires soon.
At some point, VZ and AT&T are going to need to find a way to appropriately gouge customers, especially the heavy users, on their networks.
here is something current
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=af_5pWQ2E4Zk
“Geithner’s Fed Told AIG to Limit Swaps Disclosure ”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXIvW4igKV38
General Electric Co (GE.N) shares rose more than 6 percent on Thursday after J.P. Morgan raised its price target on the stock to $22 from $20, saying investors underappreciate potential earnings recovery at the GE Capital finance unit.
“it is feasible that the public will bypass digital wiring a go full bore into WiFi”
hmm. Never thought of this before.
good points to chew on.thanks,
#93
Thanks 3B, that’s pretty much what my take was, much appreciated.
For whatever it is worth, VZ and JNJ are my only long stocks in my IRAs. Have been holding both for decades. Sold all of the other long equities off back in 2008. With that said, didn’t participate in the great sell off or the 60% recovery. Pretty whimpy I know, but I still don’t think we are out of the woods yet.
Disclaimer: Maybe I’m wrong?
I agree with Chifi’s assessment. If VZ gets the iPhone, should be good for a short-term pop. I really don’t buy the WiFi strategy. Only thing keeping FIOS from exploding is the lack of a really good set-top box. I have a funny feeling that Apple buys NetFlix and then works with VZ for rollout of killer set-top box since their AppleTV is dookey. Of course, this is completely my crazy theory.
#116 Doyle: You are welcome.
“VZ and JNJ”
2 crap companies.
SAS
re: #115 – At CES this week they unveiled the newest TVs which will come with Skype as a standard feature.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/ces/6942013/CES-2010-Skype-video-calling-service-comes-to-televisions.html
sas, crap companies that make a ton of money are good for your 401k.
“sas, crap companies that make a ton of money are good for your 401k.”
for now.
SAS
#116 Doyle. Just an FYI prices are dropping nicely in Oradell too.
but then again… don’t take my words… cause I think 401ks are a scam too.
SAS
” FYI prices are dropping nicely in Oradell too.”
taxes ain’t.
SAS
SAS,
I respect your opinion. With that said, both are doing me just fine through these turbulent times. Not looking to hit a home run these days nor would I know how to now that investing based on fundamentals is out the window with the FED and SEC changing the rules of the game almost daily.
“Stu aka The Sausage Party”
fair enough.
why does every one these days have aka next to their names?
SAS
I have owned Verizon Stock for over a decade. They almost never cease to disappoint. I wish they went through with their wireless spin off back in 2001, and so far FIOS although it is making waves is not in the top TV channel providers. They should have rolled out the TV over fiber a decade ago around here, it’s not like they did not have the techbnology working they wired up whole cities out West with fiber and rolled it out too slow.
If it wasn’t for the dividend I would have dumped them years ago.
Sean,
Skype to TV is exactly what Apple wants to do, only they will do more than just voice. Apple wants to do multimedia to the TV (iTunes, AppleTV, NetFlix) and as long as people keep buying their overpriced, high-margin apps, tunes and gadgets, they should be able to continue their steady growth. I don’t see WiFi handling this bandwidth and VZs FIOS (digital into the home) is the only game in town. The big question is really, how soon will all of this occur and will WiFi technology have a chance to gain on fiber.
#125 sas: No, that is for sure, but better than River Edge, assuming one was comparing both towns.
3B or SAS,
Any info on the Blauvelt Area (I think that’s what it’s called), the area up the hill (East Drive), West of the resovoir and North of Soldier Hill Rd? It’s a nice area, but taxes seem real high there.
re #127 SaS – reason for the “aka” is Jersey shore Nickname generator.
http://www.unlikelywords.com/2009/12/08/jersey-shore-nickname-generator/
Kind of like your Lodi story, perhaps you should adopt one.
““Artie would still be fine if he could gamble in Hoboken.”
He is gambling, he owns a condo there.”
Comment of the day!
SAS,
I just plugged SAS into the Jersey Shore name generator and you should forever be know as “DJ Douchebag”.
chi (79)-
So, are you on the record as being ok with Gross’ dumping of mispriced toxic waste on the US taxpayer?
“Completely asinine rantings from a blogger desperate for attention. More useless than provocative. Akin to Page 6 of the NY Post.”
Sean,
The delay in the fiber rollout was due to the enormous cost involved. Early FIOS installs cost $2,000 per household. Last I checked, it was down to $800 or so. It takes a lot of months at $99 for the Triple-Play to begin recouping investment. As you probably already know, they have been smartly selling off all of their old land line and Yellow Pages business. So how did you like the performance of your spinoff FRP? Man was that horrible.
#131 Beautiful area, with some beautiful older homes. Taxes are highe ther as you note. Taxes tend to be lower east of Kinderkamack, and in the area around the high school. Taxes were much lower in the town overall when the old Hackensack Wtr plant wsa up and running. It provided a large rateable to the town.
sas
you stick to sniping commies behind enemy lines.
let ‘us professionals’ take care of the investing. k?
Trust me on this. I was only down 20% yoy in 2008 which beat the market ten fold. and then last year i was up almost a whole 10%. Am i good or what?
-Veto That “The Operation”
“Blauvelt Area ”
its nice.
I just know, between taxes, grandkids schools costs, and my x-wives, I will never retire.
SAS
Any predictions on tomorrow’s BLS UE #?
3B,
Yes, we like it a lot. Actually only ran into it because our pediatrician is right on the resovoir. The taxes are a deterrent however.
Thanks again.
104 Rents
You’re in the GD? Now I’m really jealous!
“I just plugged SAS into the Jersey Shore name generator and you should forever be know as “DJ Douchebag”
thats funny. I just plugged in my real name. It came back as the following:
Bad Mother Fu*ker.
SAS
re #129 – STU – I think Apple is going to be left out in the cold on controlling digital TV.
WHDI (Wireless Home Digital Interface) is the latest for the home a very strong signal quality needed to deliver wireless HD video & data to televisions throughout the home. The OEMs are supporting it but WHDI still needs a landline Cable, or FIOS etc.
WIMAX a competitor to Cable and FIOS . Sprint, Google, Intel, Comcast, Bright House, and Time Warner formed Clearwire to pursue 100% wireless bronadband. It is not fully mature yet.
“Kind of like your Lodi story”
i have alot of Lodi stories. I can’t remember which one I may have told here on the boards.
SAS
My opinion on the subject is this: college will become a mandatory extension of high school. online college classes will explode in popularity for ‘most’ curriculum.
New Moodys research report just released…
Community Colleges Face Challenge of Strong Growth;
Expanding Student Enrollment Creates Need for Greater Capital and Operating Resources
Recent developments have highlighted the growing role of community colleges (“community college districts” or “CCDs”) in today’s higher education market. In early 2009, President Obama addressed a joint session of Congress, announcing a goal that “America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world”1. He later identified community colleges, which specialize in two-year degrees and preparing students for four-year degrees, as ideal institutions to help meet this goal. Coupled with recent federal stimulus funding actions to assist community colleges, this policy goal represents an expanded federal commitment to community colleges. Some four-year public universities are also advocating a greater role for community colleges to both raise the percentage of students attending college and to help provide capacity to meet growing student demand that cannot be fully met by four-year institutions.
SaS – I won’t bore you witht he details but the TV show is about a certain subculture that flocks like birds to the Jersey Shore to preform strange mating rituals. Kind of like what happens in Lodi on a Saturday night.
SAS:
“Kind of like what happens in Lodi on a Saturday night.”
Envision John fist pumping at the Hilltop Tavern.
Is anyone else watching CNBC right now? They are at CES and showcasing all the car electronics that are to be soon available. Amazing to think that I will soon be able to get a movie screen in the middle of my rearview mirror.
On the front page of the NY Times online:
Walk Away From Your Mortgage!
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/10/magazine/10FOB-wwln-t.html?hp
wow bad english but you get the idea
Can I trade the Dolby surround in my car for a blindspot or lane shift monitor?
3b (140)-
It will be falsified.
Veto, Chifi, as an engineer the answer is no, no and no. Emphatically no, the fiber network is a tremendous advantage, as it carries massive amounts of data, in the future there is no way your home will be able to get enough bandwidth from wireless, too unreliable and not enough bandwidth compared to fibre run to your door(not knowing what it actually is costing but if the service fees are indicative I don’t see anyone else moving in to beat them). FIOS is not even used to full potential because verizon doesn’t have a big enough backbone for it, VZ is very smart in rolling this out as it is the only way for telecom companies to compete with cable. It is all about how big of a pipe they can bring to your home, they can use that as the vehicle to sell you other services-phone, internet, television, movies, music, etc. If internet freedom doesn’t become a reality they are in great position by owning the pipe.
With wireless there is a limit to how much data you can cram in your spectrum and how much spectrum you can use, also the fact that the FCC controls it, causes difficulty. I’m pretty willing to say the future is wireless for portable but in fiber for all of the backbones and having huge fiber networks all over the place is not a bad place to start.
Opinions?
http://1080tullofarm.isnowforsale.com/
OT question. My son tells me that we can get NETFLIX through our TV, but that we need to have a Blue Ray player. If that is the case, does any one have any recommendations for an inexpensive Blue Ray player,and do I need a particular type. I know nothing about Blue ray players.
Sean, WIMAX is doa vs. fios. Wireless broadband has a place in places without dense population but again in data density spectrum vs. fibre, fibre wins every time. I think Stu might be right about apple, they have amassed a considerable amount of computer engineering talent and the ability to design chips. So far they have shown an ability to deal with media companies, and embedded os and a knack for ui and consumer electronics design. If apple tv 2.0-3.0 whatever delivered internet television capability and could access all shows I think traditional television is as good as dead. The truth is a solid app instead of web and more shows, something like hulu could replace conventional tv. Integrate commercial supported tv and movies into something like itunes and it is golden.
Hey meter,
Nice article. Put’s the idea of a strategic default into perspective. Others on this board have expressed their support for such a move only to be met with hostility. I think its a good move, I mean if MS is doing it well wtf not the average guy who’s tax dollars are padding the pockets of the corps?
Jcer,
Is cable likely to hit a bandwith limit in the near future, or has it already? I have fios and like it, unfortunately moving to a place where cable tv and high speed internet is the only option, no Fios availability.
west (155)-
Creepy road. Cruise missile it.
“WIMAX is doa vs. fios”
We get our interweb through smoke signals out here.
You can hook a lap top right up to tv if you have a Monitor type tv. I have a Samsung HD TV that can double as a monitor, only trick is a few wires to get both sound and picture. Also right on netflix site they sell boxes cheaply that are small that are easy to hook up that broadcast netflix right on your tv. Blueray what ever is rated good and is on sale get, most will stream netflix
3b says:
January 7, 2010 at 3:18 pm
OT question. My son tells me that we can get NETFLIX through our TV, but that we need to have a Blue Ray player. If that is the case, does any one have any recommendations for an inexpensive Blue Ray player,and do I need a particular type. I know nothing about Blue ray players.
“My opinion on the subject is this: college will become a mandatory extension of high school. online college classes will explode in popularity for ‘most’ curriculum”
great. more ways to keep kids locked up like sheep.
talk about a great way to ruin imagination and ruin the family.
SAS
Won’t need the intertubes when the biggest concern will be getting the crop in.
“Envision John fist pumping at the Hilltop Tavern”
or wearing a lamp shade
:P
SAS
sas (163)-
The deal ought to be if they can’t render you brain-dead by the end of 12th grade, you get set free.
3b 156
I don’t know about cheap Blue Ray players. But we have an LG Blue-Ray player. The Blue Ray player you get must have Netflix built into it. YOu also must have a Neflix account. They do not have a lot of movies you can watch instantly. I am constantly annoyed at the lack of movies we can watch instantly. Also, usually the more expensive Blue Ray players are the ones with Netflix (and other instant movie options) in them.
thx
Alap says:
January 7, 2010 at 1:44 pm
General Electric Co (GE.N) shares rose more than 6 percent on Thursday after J.P. Morgan raised its price target on the stock to $22 from $20, saying investors underappreciate potential earnings recovery at the GE Capital finance unit.
157: Tee up the bailouts for TV programmers, etc.
Just hired a tutor this week to help me deprogram my daughter. Always good for her to hear it from a voice other than mine.
His initial take on her is that she’s a bright kid who hasn’t been taught jack shit or been told the relevance of what little she has been taught.
National Blue Ribbon School, my ass.
re: #156 – 3b your son is setting you up to buy a Sony Playstation.
chi (168)-
General Electric Co (GE.N) shares rose more than 6 percent on Thursday after J.P. Morgan raised its price target on the stock to $22 from $20, and the PPT, working from an offshore site, put a giant bid up under they ass.
sean (171)-
I think he can afford it, given the mortage money he’s not tossing down a sinkhole every month, like the rest of us idiots.
Stu aka The Sausage Party says:
January 7, 2010 at 2:01 pm
If VZ gets the iPhone, should be good for a short-term pop.
Stu: not “if” but “when” and further already priced into stock…however, the magnitude for VZ (or T) is unknown, because of future supply/demand dynamics of an effective oligopoly….
Sean says:
January 7, 2010 at 2:18 pm
They should have rolled out the TV over fiber a decade ago around here, it’s not like they did not have the techbnology working they wired up whole cities out West with fiber and rolled it out too slow. NOTE: EXTREMELY COSTLY AND LABOR INTENSIVE – even at this juncture there is open criticism against Seidenberg for wasting capital.
If it wasn’t for the dividend I would have dumped them years ago – DON’T YOU THINK THEY KNOW THAT?
Realize that T & VZ sold off because these are not utility companies. They are consumer discretionary. People shut off high speed and downsized phone plans. They only roll out FiOS if they can assume high levels of subscription.
Just got off the phone with my realtor.
I expressed my excitement to finally buy a home and briefly outlined my plan for 2010; to lowball completely out of whack with market, circa 1962 prices, with the intention of getting us both blackballed by every selling agent in the county by jun.
Apparently he was eating lunch because i could here him choking on his turkey sandwich.
3b – if you don’t want the game console you can buy a netflix ready BlueRay player too.
http://www.netflix.com/NetflixReadyDevices
With Tia Teguila, Lindsey Lohan, Paris Hilton and the girls from MTV’s shore house as role models for girls today we are all in trouble.
jcer: Q there has been speculation that many (especially the youngest generation) will be enticed to dump their laptop/desktop/netbook for a PDA. Are you suggesting that such a goal is practically impossible due to WiMax capacity limitations?
“They are consumer discretionary. People shut off high speed and downsized phone plans”
chi, In the past, yes.
But looing fwd, will access to data still be a luxury that one can choose to opt out of?
its kind of like credit/debit cards. Maybe they used to be optional perks but now plastic is a defacto necessity.
For some reason im picturing 20 yrs out, my child walking around the house with verizon virtual reality helmit on. And then i suddenly get all frustrated and exclaim, “For heavans sake Annie, take off the helmit at the dinner table!!.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=awb9FaECLYt4&pos=15
Everyone thought the iPhone was priced into Apple’s stock and low and behold it doubled again.
I’m not in love with VZ. I see it as a steady performer going forward with a nice dividend. No home run coming.
The problem with Netflix and so many other great technologies is the lack of a decent interface (and of course the lack of anything worth downloading). Apple is the master of all interfaces! Take the Netflix subscribership and combine it with an Apple Designed set top box and media delivery platform and it is a no-brainer.
ChiFi, VZ, being the consumer discretionary that it is should recover with the economy, if that was to actually happen.
“If VZ gets the iPhone, should be good for a short-term pop.”
Chi, Stu,
this event that you speak of immediately turns my attention to aapl.
Any idea when that contract expires and what kind of effect it might have on aapl distribution? furthermore, is this event widely known and priced in already. Today is the first im learning of it.
180: Remembrances from the internet stock collapse:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xybernaut
“Everyone thought the iPhone was priced into Apple’s stock and low and behold it doubled again.”
Stu, you are omniscienct answeringmy questions before i vebalize them.
Question for you: What will i say next?
Also, i agree with this:
“I’m not in love with VZ. I see it as a steady performer going forward with a nice dividend. No home run coming.”
For starters, AC should detonate Resorts and Showboat…immediately!!!! That might help things. Then look to detonate a Trump casino or two.
They also have some shiny new casino at the North end of the strip being built. So why would they jeopardize that and put up a casino in the Meadowlands? The Borgata has kicked a$$ since it was built no? Proof that AC still has what it takes, just gotta provide the goods!
“The problem with Netflix and so many other great technologies is the lack of a decent interface (and of course the lack of anything worth downloading). Apple is the master of all interfaces! Take the Netflix subscribership and combine it with an Apple Designed set top box and media delivery platform and it is a no-brainer.”
Hint: Apple doesn’t need Netflix. See iTunes.
Apple > Netflix > Blockbuster.
Netflix will be the Netscape of the home entertainment market. Give it 5 years.
Jcer- AT&T shut down its broadband TV back in September. I don’t think APPLE, HULU (News Corp), NETFLIX or any of the other players trying to push TV/Movies across the internet will be much more successful than movies on demand or reruns. Primetime or Realtime etc will be left to cable, fiber and satellite since the last mile for HD programming requires allot more bandwidth as you mentioned.
Anyone ever visited the Farm Estates at Waldwick????? Looks like they might be in some trouble…..
#172 Sean: No he already has it; away at school. He is home for the Christmas break,and that is how we found out about the netflix.
#167 SO how mcuh should one of those Blue rays cost?
I don’t like Apple, never bought an Apple Product in my life. Useless stupid company. Steve Jobs best creation ever was when he invented Tetris while an employee at Atari.Other than that he pretty much steals things already invented.
If Comcast were smart, it would be offering its OnDemand films for $1 instead of $6 or whatever ridiculousness they currently charge (for cr@p movies).
But we all know that the collective brainpower of Comcast couldn’t power a Krups coffee grinder.
Stu aka The Sausage Party says:
January 7, 2010 at 3:59 pm
Everyone thought the iPhone was priced into Apple’s stock and low and behold it doubled again.
Stu: AAPL doubled from what level? The recent run in AAPL is due to Mac sales (higher margin revenue) and the new reader that will be distributed. The bigger the uptake of iTunes/iPhone, the bigger the penetration of Macs, which only make up 5% of all PCs. Note, AAPL has already priced in this effect.
er…Krupps
“I don’t like Apple, never bought an Apple Product in my life. Useless stupid company.”
John, you sound like the PC in the apple commercials.
193: did he steal your date at a Hamptons party?
AAPL is trying to do it again with the iTablet released later this month , supposed to be on Verizon’s network too.
http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2010/01/apple_tablet_rumors_garner_ant.html
Why won’t somebody burst into my workplace and shoot me in the head?
relo (198)-
John ran into Jobs in a public restroom a couple of years ago, and Jobs asked him for a piece of his liver.
Chifi 179,
<i.Q there has been speculation that many (especially the youngest generation) will be enticed to dump their laptop/desktop/netbook for a PDA. Are you suggesting that such a goal is practically impossible due to WiMax capacity limitations?
I have read a few studies that suggest this is unlikely in the near future to do interface limitations. A display screens relationship between size and information density is geometirc, not linear. So if you cut the size of the avaiable screen space in half, you are left with only 1/8th the info density.
They were hardcore info research papers, but the opinion from that angle seemed to be that there are inherent limitations due to view ability.
This is probably worth what you paid for it…..
192 3b
We paid $279 on ebay back in September. I am sure you can do much better now with after Christmas specials.
Veto 183,
That has been well known amongst the realm of the web i trawl through.
The uneducated opinion i have heard is that appl is likely to ink a deal with verizon. i got this off a bathroom wall.
192 3b
Sorry. The LG model is
LG BD390
principle reductions just about ready to be
announced
So Obama is going to deliver the “shocking” report on the Christmas Day airline incident himself this afternoon on live TV.
What kind of spin are we going to get on this? Anyone care to guess?
the reason for the unlimited fannie and freddie bailout on xmas eve. whores
203/205 Thanks for the info!!
“Why won’t somebody burst into my workplace and shoot me in the head?”
I’d do it but i’m sitting here waiting for the same thing.
209 3b
I just looked up prices. They seem to have stayed the same. Sorry. Hope you can find better. But I have to say, the picture is absolutely amazing on Blue-Ray, and even Netflix when we can find a movie we actually want to watch instantly. :)
“Anyone care to guess?”
Juice, im pretty sure thats where he will physically point his finger at his own cia on global television.
#211 Thanks I am going to spring for it. With the money I am saving renting vs. owning at the moment, might as well. Oh and it will be cash of course.
I know little about the restaurant biz, but $8MM in debt?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126282148438818743.html
If your son has an XBOX 360, he can stream Netflix movies through that, w/o the need of a Blu-ray player. I think it may/soon will be available for PS3 as well.
Other than that, hook up your computer to the tv (lot of laptops have some type of video out, and many tv’s have VGA in, which all laptops have out), or look for a blu-ray player with a netflix logo on it.
Actually, Apple is a big scam, just like Google, neither do much of anything except have a great stock price.
Apple almost went broke when Steve Jobs wasn’t there for a few years and I had this hose monster I was hooking up with whose mafioso uncle was given me a deal on a paint job for my car. Anyhow the car took longer than expected and I got stuck being her booty call for six weeks till I got my car back and she kept whining about losing all this money on apple. Only good part is she was into for some very strange reason holding the bars on my window of my apt. and pretending she was in prision and getting it from behind. Trouble is after that she stayed a few hours and talked about Apple and how Steve Jobs made her lose thousands. Talk about a let down. Well I got my car back and after than I can’t wait for Steve Jobs to disappear forever.
3b
213
The money I’m saving while renting will also allow me to buy a new car. Unfortunately, the cheapo in me right now won’t allow for it. :)
“Only good part is she was into for some very strange reason holding the bars on my window of my apt. and pretending she was in prision and getting it from behind.”
John, why was this a good part?
doesnt this make the whole situation one big gay sex scene where she is playing the part of your male prison meat?
“Should we bring back rationing?”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/8445824.stm
China go boom.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/08/business/global/08chanos.html?hpw
Post #215 is better than any GS report I ever read.
As for the question about, cable, it is not yet at max capacity, there is plenty of room and with investment from the cable companies it can compete with FIOS, the biggest things with cable are upgrading the backbone, cable to the home has high capacity and in future versions of docsis it will go up it currently goes up to 55mbits. Eliminating analogue cable and using more effective spectrum will allow big gains in throughput, coax cable as a data transmission media can be used for higher transmission rates, the issue being range and repeater technology to extend range as well as throughput. Fibre has much better range than copper and higher throughput but in the short term cable could compete and cable is investing heavily in their fibre backbone as that is the limiting factor of pretty much every provider.
Chifi, I am not saying wimax is dead or anything but it is my view that there will not be a competition between land service and wireless, people will have both. To provide next generation telephony, video, music, internet, etc the only way to provide enough bandwidth is through lines a wireless network would be brought to it’s knees by all of this. The computer, even the internet is not the killer application of high speed tcp/ip, todays broadband is fast enough for it so tomorrow’s wireless will be more than fast enough, its high def content, online applications, games, future telephony(video phone etc) that will require both bandwidth and low latency best provided by land connection, building a smartphone, pda, or netbook with the power to do these things isn’t reality today and may not be for a very long time if ever.
Sean, iptv is relatively new and it’s not a matter of if but when. Much like digital cable, something that was in it’s infancy 20 years ago, it took a while to catch on and develop to the point where it was usable. Bandwidth is the problem today, but not insurmountable advances in digital codecs, compression, and fiber technology better switching means higher throughput on existing fiber(VZ already has 1.2 gbit up, 2.4 gbit down(800mb per sec potential!)). I generally see things like fios taking the third band and going iptv when someone comes up with a good platform, iptv will not be going over the internet initially but once the technology proves itself and the capacity of the internet grows it is possible that content becomes separate from the pipe. Tivo changed the game years back and IPTV will in the future. Imagine being able to watch any programing at anytime after it is released with full pausing, rewind, fast forward and being able to switch to something else and go back to the show later where you left off, that is the promise of IPTV. On demand for everything, the internet at most can deliver 1 show or movie per connection but a dedicated IP network can inevitably do more to support of course(the 10 tv household).
While I’m prognosticating on the future, i’m seeing the death of bluray/dvd etc and the future of the media appliance ala ipod, much easier to have the machine organize and provide a good interface, something apple is well positioned to do. This will begin to start before IPTV becomes reality.
Shumpeter,
Anything specific against that street?
Seemed fairly nice, other than the general overpricing.
Excuse me, but shouldn’t today’s biggest story be Eraserhead getting caught committing securities fraud?
west (222)-
Yes. It’s creepy, not considered by residents as nice as surrounding streets…and most important, the homes are not homogeneous. Mish-mash of styles, construction quality and lots.
Take a look at DOM whenever a house on Tullo Farm goes on the market. They take forever to sell.
I’ve also been told by several agents that a goodly amount of the people who live on this road are kooks. Makes sense, as a few of those houses are so God-ugly, only a kook would want to live in them.
223: Nah, it’s expected. Not newsworthy.
A very scary New York Times article here: http://s.nyt.com/u/AJW Note this: “An affluent 5-year-old has about the same vocabulary as an adult living in poverty.”
217: Women’s prison? Prisoner/guard scenario?
Hey Clot,
Didn’t you say that you were thinking of running away to Costa Rica (at least before you started wishing for the shot to the head)?
“There are several ways of measuring happiness in countries, all inexact, but this pearl of Central America does stunningly well by whatever system is used.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/07/opinion/07kristof.html?em
Hyde, Chi, I see a place for the conventional computer/laptop but an explosion of smartphone, media players, video devices, home automation, etc in the future. PDA’s or smartphone absolutely don’t have the interface to do everything but will see massive usage as they become viable internet devices(I don’t need a computer to get to the internet great!) but the experience will not be the same and when internet application technology advances this will be even more true.
John as for apple they have quite a few true visionaries and always have, even the pepsi CEO, was a visionary(PDA, Smartphone, etc were his vision of the future in 1980’s-90’s), apple practically invented the, brought to market first, or made generally popular…the pc, the gui, the pda(even the netbook), digital audio, digital video, the online music store, the touchscreen smartphone. Steve Jobs is great at recognizing good ideas and driving the engineers to deliver perfection, the iphone is no mistake, nor is the ipod nor job’s proclamation that the pc is basically dead, it is a hub for digital devices. Apple and jobs take risks on ideas, Tony Fadell the creator of the ipod, pitched it to other companies, Apple let him do it and Jobs being a lunatic demanded a perfect machine. A lot of Newton people and general magic(apple joint venture to make wearable computers in the 80’s-90’s) people are responsible for the ipod an iphone. The ideas failed in the 80’s and 90’s and apple took them in. Apple has tons of cash and a desire to innovate, a CEO who has ties to the entertainment industry, what ever happens they will most likely be ahead of the curve. Hey all I know is I am up some insane amount on stock I bought in the mid 90’s, I think split adjusted I am in at $4 a share, wish I had bought more.
223.
That doesnt matter its not important. What is important is the future of cable tv, Doritos, grape soda, and Tiger Woods.
“Women’s prison? Prisoner/guard scenario?”
Relo, thank you. i needed to get that original jail scene out of my head.
Veto,
Ditto, welcome.
netflicks will be Netscape.
you really think so? I love my netflicks.
although, could use a little more foreign films and less hollywood rubbish.
SAS
well, guess the gays cant get married.
a horse is a horse of course. they may be getting the message in Trenton
“well, guess the gays cant get married”
thats downright discrimination.
SAS
215…that one won’t pass muster at Wired or CNET sorry john.
corzine of course was for it,
Thehopeless fools are again being taken down the garden path. The world as we know it is about to change dramatically, so prepare for it.
August West :156
Is that the house you have Under Contract ??
“corzine of course was for it”
nevertheless, it should have passed
Police: Man Who Threatened Realtor Taken Off Flight
The Associated Press
| 07 Jan 2010 | 12:34 PM ET
An airline passenger who yelled “I want to kill Reeves Hughes” on a Detroit-bound plane was arrested on disorderly conduct and other charges, but authorities said Thursday the incident didn’t appear terrorism-related.
Mansor Mohammad Asad, 43, of Toledo, Ohio, was arrested Wednesday night after a taxiing Northwest Airlines flight returned to a gate at Miami International Airport, Miami-Dade police said. After a confrontation with officers, Asad was charged with threats against a public servant, disorderly conduct and resisting an officer without violence.
FBI spokeswoman Judy Orihuela said there were no indications the incident was connected to terrorism. The bureau was initially brought in to look into the disturbance but is no longer involved in the investigation and is treating the case as a local matter.
The disturbance came the same day as military jets escorted a commercial jetliner bound for Hawaii back to the Portland, Ore., airport because of a disruptive passenger. The FBI said there was no known terrorism link in that case. The passenger, identified only as a 56-year-old man from Salem, Ore., was released.
Asad’s son, 27-year-old Mickey Asad, told The Associated Press that his father suffered from bipolar disorder and was in and out of mental institutions when he was younger.
“He’s far from a terrorist,” said the younger Asad. “He just lost his temper. There’s no excuse, but someone had to have pushed his button”
Mansor Asad, who owns an appliance store in Toledo, was returning home from a vacation in Miami with his sister and his 14-year-old daughter.
His son said his father has a short temper and extensive criminal record. He also said his father had been doing better in recent years. “This is such a strange turn,” he said.
Asad was being held pending a Friday bond hearing, with his arraignment date scheduled for Jan. 27. Court officials said Asad asked a judge for 24 hours to hire an attorney.
Witnesses told investigators who boarded the plane that Asad was loud, disruptive and claimed to be Palestinian. His son said he was an American citizen of Palestinian descent.
Officers didn’t find any weapons or explosives on Asad, who police said was agitated and aggressive at times, according to an arrest affidavit. Authorities used a stun gun to subdue Asad on the jet bridge after he charged at an officer with fists clenched. He also chanted in a foreign language and threatened officers during a search.
“I’m not afraid of you cops, I’ve gotten in fights with cops in Ohio and broke their arms in three places,” he said, according to the affidavit. “I’ve broken skulls too!”
The affidavit noted that alcohol didn’t appear to be a factor during the incident.
The Transportation Security Administration said three of Asad’s companions were also taken off the plane and questioned. The plane later departed without incident after a search using police dogs.
relo 219
Re China:
I…ts surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like “Dubai times 1,000 — or worse,” he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent.
who would have guessed? another this blog has been calling for over a year.
241 – chi – Its surprising more people don’t yell that on planes.
Chanos is right.
I’m looking for New Jerseyans either considering — or have already gone through — strategic default. If you know anyone, or are going through the process yourself, please contact me ssposito@starledger.com
Sean Sposito
Real Estate Reporter
The Star-Ledger
I’ve loved Apple products for some time, they produce products that is visually beautiful while working like a each and every time. I can’t say that about alot of companies, it’s usually one or the other. Tech businesses don’t usually take aesthetics seriously like Apple. With me stating that I’ve got to say that I’m anxious about the new Tablet. One thing I question though, is it too soon? I think that this may be ahead of its time. What do you think?
My dad
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I usually always suggest leasing over renting a vehicle. The situation is that it’s typically a much more frugal alternative over the life of the car. With a lease you don’t typically have to pay for minor fixes that can get expensive as time goes on. Plus you have the capability of trading cars every couple of years! As long as you stay in the mileage I highly suggest it.
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