From the NYT:
Northeast Home Sales Post 13 Pct. Annual Increase
Home sales in the Northeast rose in February as the economy showed signs of recovery, inspiring buyers.
The National Association of Realtors also said Tuesday that Northeast sales were 13 percent higher on a year-over-year basis, the biggest improvement in any of the four U.S. regions.
Nationwide, homes sales were up 8 percent from February a year ago, without adjusting for seasonal factors.
The improved sales activity in the region helped drive up prices. The median sales price of $254,700 for an existing home was almost 8 percent higher than February 2009, making the Northeast the sole region to show a price increase from last year.
The national median sales price of $165,100 was down almost 2 percent.
…
Home sales in the Northeast rose in February as the economy showed signs of recovery, inspiring buyers.The National Association of Realtors also said Tuesday that Northeast sales were 13 percent higher on a year-over-year basis, the biggest improvement in any of the four U.S. regions.
Nationwide, homes sales were up 8 percent from February a year ago, without adjusting for seasonal factors.
The improved sales activity in the region helped drive up prices. The median sales price of $254,700 for an existing home was almost 8 percent higher than February 2009, making the Northeast the sole region to show a price increase from last year.
The national median sales price of $165,100 was down almost 2 percent.
…
Biggest sales gains: Sales in the New York City suburbs climbed 29 percent from a year ago, the second consecutive month of strong growth in that market.Miriam Bernstein, an agent with Re/Max Prime Properties in Scarsdale, N.Y., saw evidence of growing demand in the pricey New York suburban market, coupled with an occasional lack of supply.
”A tremendous number of buyers are out there ready to buy, but I don’t think we have enough houses for what they’re looking for,” she said.
…
Biggest sales declines: Sales in Trenton, N.J., fell 14 percent, while Hartford, Conn., was down nearly 9 percent and Philadelphia off 6 percent.Realtors were split on the impact of the historic winter storms that buried the mid-Atlantic states, particularly Pennsylvania and New Jersey, while leaving northern New England relatively unscathed.
…
Sellers whose homes have been on the market for months may also be starting to lose patience and showing more flexibility.Agents need to have a ”hard conversation” with sellers whose properties have been on the market for six months or more, Magee said.
”You are starting to see some reality settling in with a lot of the sellers,” he said. ”You’re seeing price reductions of $15-$20,000.”
From the WSJ:
In Manhattan, Luxury Condos Revive
A Manhattan condominium owned by a financially troubled Italian film producer was sold in a foreclosure auction for $33.2 million, the highest price paid for Manhattan apartment this year and a sign that New York real estate prices are stabilizing.
A Chinese businessman who was not identified purchased the 5,500-square-foot apartment with 20-foot ceilings and views of Central Park that had been owned by Vittorio Cecchi Gori, the producer of more than 200 films including “Il Postino” and “Life is Beautiful.” The new buyer paid the lofty price of more than $6,000 a square foot even though the apartment was in ruins after being gutted by Mr. Cecchi Gori for a renovation. The sale closed on Monday.
The price in the current deal underscores signs of recovery in luxury housing in Manhattan in the last few months, after an extended period of sluggish sales and falling prices. It followed a series of high closing prices on other luxury cooperatives and condominiums last December.
From CNBC:
BofA to Start Reducing Mortgage Principal
Bank of America will on Wednesday announce plans to start forgiving mortgage loan principal for troubled homeowners who owe more than 120 percent of their home’s value or are battling ever-expanding “negative amortization” loans.
According to a summary of the program obtained by Reuters, Bank of America pledged to offer an “earned principal forgiveness” of up to 30 percent in two stages. The lender will first offer an interest-free forbearance of principal that the homeowner can turn into forgiven principal annually over five years, provided they stay current on their payments.
The forgiveness can allow a homeowner to bring the loan value back down to 00 percent of the home’s value over five years, according to the plan, confirmed by sources close to the matter.
The plan, to begin in May, is among the first by a U.S. mortgage lender that takes a systematic approach to reducing mortgage principal to tackle the thorny issue of preventing foreclosures when home values drop well below the amount owed.
From CNBC:
Huge Jump in Homes for Sale
It could be a good thing or a very bad thing, depending on how you look at it.
Existing home inventories jumped, on an absolute basis, 9.5 percent from January to February.
That translates into 312,000 new properties added to an existing market, to total 3.59 million homes for sale.
Given the slow sales pace, that translates into an 8.6-month supply (in Realtor-speak that means it would take roughly that long to sell those houses at the current pace).
I saw some analysts claim this is a seasonal effect, as sellers get ready for the Spring market, but the Realtors said it is a much bigger jump than usual, in fact the biggest they’ve seen in a few decades.
“The inventory increase, one of the strongest from January to February, is discomforting, and it could pressure prices to decline later on,” admits Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.
…
The run-up in inventory may more likely be due to increased numbers of distressed properties on the market. The banks are working through the modification process more quickly now, and many many borrowers are not qualifying and therefore being moved to foreclosure.
From HousingWire:
Home Prices Continue Decline as Economist Sees Accelerated Double Dip
US house prices declined 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis from December to January, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) monthly house price index. The results come with a warning that the much-feared double-dip in housing prices may be already here.
January’s drop comes after a 2% decline in December, adjusted from an originally projected 1.6%.
…
Paul Dales, the US economist at the Toronto office of Capital Economics, said recent increases in excess supply are already weighing on prices and the US housing market is in a double dip, both in activity and prices. While the FHFA index can be volatile from one month to the next, it is a big cause for concern.
“[A] double dip in prices has already begun, and in the space of just two months, it has more than reversed the increases of the previous year,” Dales wrote. “We first predicted a double dip in house prices at the start of February, but even we didn’t think it would come this soon.”
…
Dales estimates another 5m to 6m homes will be foreclosed on, pushing the excess supply up to 21 months. So while in the near-term, housing activity is likely to increase ahead of the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, such gains will be temporary.
“The housing market may remain a noose around the neck of the US economy for some time yet,” Dales said.
So what is going on with the North Jersey suburbs? Have we bottomed out? Is the 8% increase in activity a blip on the way to oblivion? Is it 1993 and prices will creep up 1 or 2% a year for 5 to 7 years and a new bubble will start? The number of people showing up at open houses is amazing. And anything that looks nice on a side street is getting near or full list and usually attracting bidding wars in less than a week. Even houses that get flooded basements or part of the yard is in a flood plain are getting near or full list offers.
Houses that are pos, or poor location, seem to be sitting.
A friend of mine who owns a coin shop in a very
prestigious Bergen County train town has been telling
me lately about ” a steady stream of people driving
high end cars coming into his shop to UNLOAD coins,
jewelry and watches for cash.”
I doubt these are the people driving up home sales in the
Northeast.
2- Grim
could this be a red flag on an upcoming rise in mortgage rates?
6. I can understand people wanting to sell G-O-L-D right now. The price is very high. I also have some American Eagles I’m looking at selling. The recession combined with high G-O-L-D prices means a lot of people are unloading. I think the price will go even higher though.
From the Washington Post:
Treasury report lowers estimate of home borrowers helped by key program
The Obama administration’s marquee foreclosure-prevention program is on course to help far fewer homeowners than previously expected, according to a government watchdog’s new report.
The Treasury Department initially said the program, known as Making Home Affordable, would reach as many as 4 million struggling borrowers. But Neil Barofsky, special inspector general for the Troubled Assets Relief Program, said in a report issued Tuesday that Treasury now expects only 1.5 million to 2 million homeowners to get mortgage relief.
In the past few weeks, Treasury has said that the higher figure refers to the number of homeowners who would receive offers of interim loan modifications, not necessarily the total who would complete the process and receive permanent loan modifications. Barofsky expressed skepticism that offering modifications was a meaningful goal.
“Many of Treasury’s prior statements about the program have strongly suggested that [it] would result in 3 to 4 million permanent modifications, not merely offers for trial modifications,” the report said.
according to all the news i’m reading we are in recovery. Spring housing season is at hand. What’s is going to be Grim?
Can anyone point me to a ranking of property taxes by town and not just county? Or is that not available? Thanks.
Spring housing season is at hand.
The fact that we’re in Spring might have something to do with that.
I feel fine!
#7 – could this be a red flag on an upcoming rise in mortgage rates?
Logically a rise in rates would follow. BAC would now be forced to start charging to cover the losses.
Also in play is the end of the Fed’s MBS purchase plan. Unless they plan on extending it, this could force rates higher as the originators can’t easily sell loans on and have to start charging a risk premium.
I’d add that this is what would *logically* happen, not what will.
Anyone who thinks housing is rebounding, please step up to have your head lopped off and handed to you.
The final few victims are being sucked into the biggest pump/dump in US history.
The 20-40 years in the wilderness have begun.
Embrace the oblivion.
From the NYT; Cali to start emptying prisons due to budget probs… (Hyperbole is mine).
It will be interesting to see this play out in other states, NJ being no exception. Budgetary constraints may play more of a role in killing off the drug war than any cultural shifts.
nvestors paying cash for houses accounted for one in four home sales during the past year in Sacramento County and West Sacramento, becoming dominating players in a distressed market and squeezing out scores of first-time buyers, 2009 statistics now show.
http://www.sacbee.com/2010/02/15/2537544/investors-plunking-down-cash-for.html
Listed my old house Sunday, already got an offer at list px, though contingent on a sale already UC. I think we have a fair, cut the bs px, but in laws whining about how this proves we underpriced.
Looks like a promising future for the auto industry:
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2010/03/really-paying-offnot.html
west (18)-
Tell your dope in-laws that a veteran agent- with no vested interest in your sale- says it’s actually proof you gauged the market just right.
Any home left on the market when the tax credit expires will turn into a pillar of salt.
Any seller who doesn’t generate serious interest right out of the box and have an offer within 10 days is overpriced.
Bank Of America Can Not Deny It Used Repo 105, Response From PricewaterhouseCoopers Pending; The BofA QSPE’s
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bank-america-can-not-deny-it-used-repo-105-response-pricewaterhousecoopers-pending-bofa-qspe
Looks like financials pre-bust earnings may all have been a fantasy propagated by a bunch of amoral clowns looking to boost their own bonus numbers.
I would think that the 13% increase in prices is a result of movement in the luxury end of the market.
Funny thing in the building I live in Hoboken, 100K price discrepancy between two listed 2b/2ba units in same building, almost identical sizes. Which one is more realistic?
Zero Hedge has some of Eraserhead’s testimony on the GSEs yesterday, with comments from Bruce Krasting (chi, Krasting is the most conservative of the ZH crew, so you can read it without your eyeballs melting).
My only reaction is that everyone here should forward it to all their friends. Because it is proof positive we are headed toward complete, thermobaric economic implosion.
It’s hard here to really tell who’s dumber, Timmay or the congresscritters.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tim-hill-ho-hum-or-ahem
HE (22)-
Neither.
This should end well, too:
“The extra yield investors demand to own corporate bonds rather than government debt was unchanged yesterday at 154 basis points, or 1.54 percentage points, the narrowest since November 2007, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Corporate Index shows. High-yield debt returned a record 57.5 percent in 2009, and another 4.3 percent this year, according to the Bank of America index data.”
Per Yellen; No rate hike until 2013!
tosh (26)-
Per the Japanese playbook, no rate hike until 2028.
Kieran :11
Looking for “a ranking of property taxes by town and not just county”
Go to Urban Dictionary . com and look under “Too Friggen High”
Seriously, every county probably has a page with Assessor’s info for each town. But all of that is about to become obsolete once Trenton cuts the state funding and starts pushing it onto the towns. Data you find today does not apply to the next few years.
You want to avoid towns with big school systems. Any place with dual high schools is doomed. Well over 50% of real estate taxes goes to the school system.
You also want to look at towns with a bloated public employee payroll. If you’re considering a town with a large police force….just think of it in terms of unused sick days.
Is our children learning?
“Chicago Breaking News reported late last night that former Chicago schools chief and current Secretary of Education Arne Duncan manipulated a system to favor powerful political allies by placing their children in the schools of their choice. The discovery of a list, the existence of which had been long denied by the city, and its composition of mainly high-powered political figures calls into question the appeals system used to reconsider applications that had been denied by the top Chicago-area schools:
While many Chicago parents took formal routes to land their children in the best schools, the well-connected also sought help through a shadowy appeals system created in recent years under former schools chief Arne Duncan.
Whispers have long swirled that some children get spots in the city’s premier schools based on whom their parents know. But a list maintained over several years in Duncan’s office and obtained by the Tribune lends further evidence to those charges. Duncan is now secretary of education under President Barack Obama.
The log is a compilation of politicians and influential business people who interceded on behalf of children during Duncan’s tenure. It includes 25 aldermen, Mayor Richard Daley’s office, House Speaker Michael Madigan, his daughter Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan, former White House social secretary Desiree Rogers and former U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley Braun. …
The list surfaced amid a federal probe and an internal investigation into admissions practices at the city’s top high schools. Until Monday, the district had not revealed it had kept such a list.
The list was maintained by a top Duncan aide, David Pickens, currently chief of staff to the president of the Chicago Board of Education. Pickens said he created the log at Duncan’s behest to track the flood of calls pouring into district offices from parents, politicians and business leaders trying to navigate the system’s mysterious and maligned application process.
But Pickens acknowledged the list was kept confidential. The vast majority of parents who follow the system’s school application process never knew they could appeal to Duncan’s office for special consideration.
Why not? Pickens said that they “didn’t want a bunch of people calling.” No, apparently Duncan and his staff only wanted certain people calling — people like the Madigans, Mosely Braun, and so on. The kind of people who could do something for Duncan, like perhaps push his own political career forward until he got a spot like … Secretary of Education.
This is bald corruption. Having a secret process that only the powerful know to get preferential treatment for their children is the antithesis of openness and transparency. It turned Chicago schools and their admission process from an open competition to another spoils process in the Chicago Machine. It’s not surprising, given the rampant corruption in the Windy City, but it is disgusting. Parents of children who got aced out of a spot in the school of their choice now have to assume that Duncan and his team gamed the system, putting children at a disadvantage in order to gain political favor for themselves.
Anyone participating in that system should leave public service immediately, including Duncan himself. Will Mr. Hope and Change keep Duncan as part of his White House team and endorse this patronage system built on the backs of children?”
Some pigs are more equal than others.
Wait ’til these guys start coming for your kidneys.
http://www.sacbee.com/2010/03/24/2629239/schwarzenegger-expected-to-sign.html#storylink=omni_popular
New $10,000 CA home buyer tax credit
Re 29,
I am SHOCKED, SHOCKED by that news. Almost as shocked as when the Hon Peter Cammarano was arrested for taking what I am certain was his first and only bribe.
Doom 27:
I said 2020 the other day. Maybe I was too conservative.
It is clear that we will never see rates above 1% for the rest of our lives. The gubbmint, will keep the rates artificially low to service the exploding debt.
#31 – $10k to buyers of new unoccupied homes… We all get the purpose here, to start moving inventory and allow housing construction to pick up again relieving unemployment pressures.
But… how much demand do they really think there is out there? How much does a $10K credit then hurt occupied housing sales? If it does hurt these sales how does that affect move up buyers? Finally can Cali even afford this?
I bring up all of these questions because I’m expecting to see the same scenario play out here in NJ.
Interesting that the “O” team says the States will not win their objection to Government Mandate for citizens to buy Private Company Health Insurance. They use Taxes, Social Security & Medicare as examples of Government Mandates that were allowable, ignoring the fact that Obamacare is not Government Insurance, it’s a mandate for you to buy Private Insurance. They then liken it to Automobile Insurance, which you don’t pay if you don’t drive. Not so with Obamacare, you pay whether you use it or not. We need a new Law that says Government can not fabricate lies to achieve dubious ends.
housing recovery?
nope.
we are going through what I call the “Death rattle”
SAS
confused (35)-
Then what the hell else is gubmint for? BTW, I like the way you write like George Washington, with lots of nouns in caps.
“We need a new Law that says Government can not fabricate lies to achieve dubious ends.”
“Northeast Home Sales Post 13 Pct. Annual Increase”
Buy a home now, before prices jump like in 2005.
Cindy (31)-
The first thing I see in that program is massive potential for fraud.
Second, it appears this program is CA’s final, desperate Hail Mary. Of course, we all know how it will end…
Yeah, right, Frank. While you’re at it, don’t check those rising inventory levels or tightening mortgage standards.
Frank is Orin Kramer. No doubt about it.
I expressed my opinions on healthcare plenty yesterday so I won’t go into that anymore other than to ask why the Dumbcrats think this will help them get re-elected? What?? I forgot their pork laden $1T “stimulus” bill? Their rubber-stamping B’s TARP and their own stupid auto bailout and cash for clunkers?? O’s expanding the war in Afghanistan??? Even if you believe that lousy healthcare bill solves a few problems that needed to be solved, these clowns have proven themselves to be as corrupt/incompetent as any Republican Congress/Administration has ever been. Why would I vote for any of them again?
“Bloomberg’s budget ax draws fresh blood”
http://tinyurl.com/y9gjsc6
“The final few victims are being sucked into the biggest pump/dump in US history.”
A Wells Fargo rep was telling me about a new FNMA backed program, 3% down on REO purchases with no appraisal required.
http://www.sacbee.com/2010/03/24/2629168/nummi-shutdown-hits-central-valley.html#storylink=omni_popular
39 – Clot
Think any of these folks will need a new place?
March 24 (Bloomberg) — Democrats won their health-care victory ugly, after a yearlong, fractious, uninspiring process filled with rancid deals and worse compromises, redeemed only by the moment when they actually delivered reform to the country.
Republicans lost even uglier, not so much in opposition as in sullen, lockstep refusal to consider any reforms, even ones they were previously for, like cutting waste and fraud from Medicare.
Which would you rather brandish at a town hall meeting? A vote to contain the insurance companies, or a vote to let them have their way?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=ajfAwWBbcYRM
Dissident HEHEHE,
get back to work and pay for my healthcare.
ahh..i think I will hit the Burger King for lunch and get a whooper with cheese.
I love entitlements.
SAS
hey…what do you know..
my new food stamp debit card is in the mail.
Think I will go down to the fish market and order tuna steaks.
thanks everyone for working so hard….so I don’t. and why should I if the govt will teet feed me everyday.
I love entitlements.
SAS
My wife threatened a sadistically painful vivisection if I dared respond to this e-mail…..
Ok, so now that the pto broke the bad news, I’m allowed to pass it on to you.
Please vote for the budget!!! We don’t want this to happen.
Not to mention all of the other awful things that will come from the budget not passing, but anyone who lives within 2 miles of any school will have to drive their child to and from school EVERY day. I know most of you aren’t in the school yet, but the line for drop off when I occasionally drive to school in the morning can sometimes be 5-10 minutes long on rainy days. Add the 300 children that will be affected by this and it’ll take even longer.
It might not seem so bad, but pickup is ridiculous. You’re supposed to be inside the school lobby by 3:10, and wait until the busses have left before they allow you down to the media center to pick up your child. That is usually not until close to 3:30. Then you have to wait on line (which will be much longer when there will be 300 students added every day) to get your child from the media center. It’s ridiculous. Imagine having to do that with your younger children, taking them in and out of the car in the freezing cold and rain. It won’t be fun.
In addition to the 2 mile radius insanity about bussing, class size could go up to 25 kids per class! And although it won’t affect us (yet), but you will have to pay for intramurals and other extra curriculars will be canceled altogether. Also, specials like spanish and computers might be cut, etc.
Go to the meeting tonight at 6 at the Primary School for more info and to voice your opinion. (I can’t make it tonight. If anyone goes, please update the group and me if anything else of importance is discussed.)
Most importantly, vote on April 20 or send in your absentee ballot! (no matter what district you’re in)
**Pass this along to anyone you know in town, especially if they live within
2 miles of any school.
(FYI, I heard a rumor that the h.s. district is thinking about doing the same thing.)
—– Original Message —–
Sent: Tuesday, March 23, 2010 1:48 PM
Subject: URGENT PLEASE ATTEND TONIGHT’S SCHOOL BUDGET PRESENTATION AT 6PM AT CRPS CAFETERIA
> BECOME EDUCATED, ASK QUESTIONS, FIND OUT ABOUT CUTS AND IMPACT OF
> $1,000,000 LESS IN STATE AID.
>
> IF THE BUDGET FAILS……A ND YOU LIVE 2 MILES OR LESS FROM ALL 3
> SCHOOLS YOU WILL BE PROVIDING YOUR CHILD WITH TRANSPORTATION TO AND
> FROM SCHOOL EVERY DAY……THINK OF THE TRAFFIC, SIGNING OUT EVERY
> DAY, CONGESTION IN PARKING LOTS…..MULTIPLE DROP OFFS…..NO LATE BUS
>
> HOW ARE WORKING PARENTS GOING TO HANDLE THIS……WHAT IF YOU HAVE
> LITTLE ONES NAPPING….
>
> IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE MORE STAFF LAID OFF…..LESS TECHNOLOGY
> DOLLARS AND EVEN BIGGER CLASS SIZES
>
> THIS IS YOUR CHANCE TO VOICE YOUR OPINION AND ASK QUESTIONS…..WE
> NEED YOUR VOTES TO GET THE BUDGET PASSED….TELL YOUR FRIENDS….START
> EMAIL CHAINS……TALK IT UP EVERYWHERE U GO……TAXES WILL GO UP
> REGARDLESS AS WE HAVE ALSO LOST STATE MUNICIPAL AID……DONT TAKE
> YOUR FRUSTRATIONS WITH THE GOVERNMENT OUT ON OUR SCHOOL SYSTEM….
>
> IF YOU THINK U MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO VOTE BETWEEN 2PM AND 9PM (NEW
> VOTING POLL HOURS)ON APRIL 20TH, UTILIZE THE APPLICATION TO VOTE BY
> MAIL THAT WAS SENT HOME IN YOUR CHILD’S BACKPACK YESTERDAY OR GO TO
> PTO WEBSITE AND CLICK ON LINK.
>
> LETS FILL THE CAFTERIA WITH PARENTS AND HEAR WHAT OUR ADMINISTRATORS
> HAVE PROPOSED WITH THE 74% DECREASE IN STATE AID……THEY DESERVE OUR
> ATTENTION AFTER SPENDING COUNTLESS HOURS PREPARING A FISCALLY
> RESPONSIBLE BUDGET DURING THIS ECONOMIC CRISIS.
>
> THANK YOU
>
> CNPTO BUDGET AWARENESS COMMITTEE
>
> —–
>
>
>
>
>
Should end very well, didn’t an extremely smart and handsome man named John tell you all to load up on this stuff back when rates were 18-40%.
Final Doom says:
March 24, 2010 at 8:22 am
This should end well, too:
“The extra yield investors demand to own corporate bonds rather than government debt was unchanged yesterday at 154 basis points, or 1.54 percentage points, the narrowest since November 2007, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Corporate Index shows. High-yield debt returned a record 57.5 percent in 2009, and another 4.3 percent this year, according to the Bank of America index data.”
Nice to see our local PTO believes that the word “you” is spelled solely with the 21st letter of the alphabet.
cindy (44)-
Death throes of a dying state. What good will a 10K tax credit do when UE is rampant?
Sounds like you’re about to experience Tom Joad in reverse there.
chi (50)-
Nice to see the massive denial is everywhere. I was beginning to think my district was the only place where magical thinking rules.
bidding wars in NJ….with the fiscal situation and its fallout not yet clear re: prop taxes…its a collective psychosis.
Barb, it’s best to just prepare to profit from the inevitable fallout. The more the insanity spreads, the more it assures the eventual crash is epic in size and scope.
Good realtors
“Anyone who thinks housing is rebounding, please step up to have your head lopped off and handed to you.”
im tempted to cast my vote for post of the day before 9:30 am.
31: Another inducement to walk away from your underwater home in a non-deficiency judgement state? Move into a new one and get a credit.
“Nice to see our local PTO believes that the word “you” is spelled solely with the 21st letter of the alphabet.”
Ha ha. Chi, this was a text message right?
I got a similar warning from my wife after we received an email from a school board member inviting us down to discuss the ‘budget crisis’. I am literally not allowed to attend.
This school thingy is gonna get complicated once the teachers actually have to teach kids things.
No more Sprinturf, wireless cloud, etc…
Yea, housing is in a recovery now and the health plan is going to save the government money. ha, ha. I think we all need some of whatever it is they’re smoking in Washington and Trenton.
” I can understand people wanting to sell G-O-L-D right now. ”
Jim, i cant.
Im not a gold bug but its pretty clear that the next bubble attempted will be in money, liquidity, sovereign debt.
By those standards, gld is poised to explode from here. I only have a med size position but i will double down soon.
The recent news about high quality corporate bonds fetching better yields than treasuries is only the tip of the iceburg. It will get worse.
I dont expect default or collapse, but treas have experienced huge rally. how long is that expected to last?
“its a collective psychosis”
When it comes to economic decision making, I think that most of us would stipulate that analysis skills and rational thinking are not as widely distributed amongst the population as we might like. Inasmuch as anly a relatively small perecntage of homes are for sale each year, all it takes to start or maintain a poorly-reasoned path towards a cliff is a small percentage of people.
The few, the house-proud, mistaken.
All this for only 549k
This reminds me of my grandparents house. Circa 1978
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Livingston-Twp_NJ_07039_1117120043
Local school district predicting a $100 million shortfall for 2011 in a $907 million budget and planning cuts accordingly. The good news is that the local elementary school did raise enough money in a fun run to pay the salary of the technology teacher for another year.
“bidding wars in NJ”
The only recent bidding wars ive seen have resulted in multiple price reductions.
Unless something changes this spring is setting up to be a fall on your face bust up.
We stopped by an open house 3 weeks ago just to be nosy. Since then, the realtor has sent us a hand written thank you card, an email and left us two messages begging to show us homes – despite the fact that we told her we are already represented within 3 seconds of meeting her. That has never happened to us ever.
My wife is litteraly saddened by the desperation. Its not just a slow spring, its a siberian winter freeze over in march. I expect this to change at some point soon – but maybe it wont.
Safe 63 it is a like a time warp. A movie company should buy it to shoot in that period.
Wouldn’t have to change much at all. Scary.
61. Veto
I agree and also think G-O-L-D will go higher. There appear to be many bubbles out there. Some known, some unknown. GOLD, GUNS, FOOD, and AMMO will all be good things to be holding in the future. Hope, change and the US Peso not so much.
safe – 63.
Are you being sarcastic?
i think that is a nice home.
I cant tell by the pic but the conrete floors do wonders for that kitchen.
The rest of the style flare throughout the house i can do without. Overall it seems like a great price and alot of house.
BAC principal reduction program only applies to pay-option and subprime ARMs. 30-fixeds not eligible.
So, here’s the world of housing as it now stands:
– gubmint pays people to buy a house
– gubmint pays people to short sell and get out of a house
– gubmints incentivize senior lienholders to blow out junior lienholders
– gubmint likely to encourage spread of BAC program, forgiving 20%+ of principal balances on the worst loans made during the boom
And there are people who have the gall to look into a camera and talk about a HOUSING RECOVERY? We’re living out a scheme that could only be dreamed up by a Madoff-level criminal genius.
Pay people to get in. Pay people to get out. Reward the first actors and worst actors. Sound familiar?
US housing policy is now a 100% pyramid scheme.
safe (63)-
Looks like the NJ home office for dust mites.
With a 5-handle in Livingston, it’s probably under a power line, to boot.
#66 mike,
It’s amazing. I’m still surprised when I go to an open house and it looks like nothing was done to the house since the current owner bought it 20 to 40 years ago.
Have got alot of money in this stock market. I’m waiting on the feds to get in and punch the clock this morning.
Every time they come in late im forced to sit here and watch my whole portfolio screen turn red.
Veto,
Don’t worry they don’t show up until 2:30 or 3:00 each day. I am convinced that until that time the same gubmint employees are busy each day remotely flying drones over Afghanistan and Iraq.
Veto,
lat i checked the current RE stats work out to 9 sales per year per realtor, nation wide (total sales / total realtors).
if the average sales price (nation wide) is about 180K and assuming a 6% commission, the average income from sales commissions ( also assuming the sales realtor sees about 50% of that commission) is about 30k
While this number will fluctuate quit a bit on a local level, the general picture is fulltime realtors are going to be seeing a substantial drop in income.
Doom #20 –
let me know what you think of this listing (notice when the first listing happened)
NJ MLS #2935329
too early to do math.
correction..
30K -> 45K
Hyde, nice calcs.
Then you have to apply the 80/20 rule.
the top 20% of realtors responsible for 80% of the volume.
resulting in 80% of the realtors going back to the careers they had before the biggest re bubble in history.
#68 veto
I think it is a larger split and reasonably priced as long as it is not under a powerline, on a busy road, or in a flood plain . It’s out of our price range, but I think this would have been 680-700k at the peak. I know someone who paid 625 for a smaller split in 2007 and was kind of shocked that their neighbor was listing at 545k in the summer of 09.
78 – 15% reduction on asking price from peak in a nice town.
At least they are being realistic.
I like that home.
Safe 71 if you buy it I want the kitchen set to put in basement for card games. Guys will love the retro look. My Aunt had one just like it years ago.
Re: It is not different this time. Remember last week when I talked to GS guy who said IPOs big comeback this week? Also said watch MaxLinear.
Well it popped 28% this morning.
This is the begining of the re-inflating process for high end homes.
Look it is money made tapping a keyboard, people look at friends making money and want in. GS guy did say only first few quality IPOs will get the pop, after that the lemmings jump in on the drudge.
Safe you know the taxes?
veto (75)-
80-20 rule is now 92-8.
#83 is to #77
ricky (75)-
I don’t have NJMLS access.
[67] jim
Your outlook on gold depends on the state of the dollar. Today, gold is getting hammered because of the euro. The dollar is still a safe haven currency. I also have metals positions, but not large ones. I’ll buy more if everyone flocks to the dollar as the last man standing, but not right now.
#82 Mike,
taxes were 11,250 in 2009. Don’t know what 2010 are.
That retro look is kind of cool. Like the set from that 70’s show.
Veto
5 million annualized home sales, average sales price = 180K
using the 80/20 rule and saying 3% of that goes to the individual agent, and that there are about 517,000 RE agents…
the 80/20 rule suggests that
the top 20% of realtors or about 100K of them are making about 200K/yr.
The other 80% or realtors, about 400K of them, are making about 13K/yr
mike (80)-
That kitchen set is probably spewing giant amounts of formaldehyde.
John (81)-
Was that before or after he told you to buy low, sell high?
“GS guy did say only first few quality IPOs will get the pop, after that the lemmings jump in on the drudge.”
How much does it cost to refinish hardwood floors that have been covered by wall to wall carpeting for the last 20 years? I’m guessing $1.50 to $6 a square foot depending on the condition of the floors.
There’s definitely a shadow inventory because of people holding off on selling because they don’t want to sell for a loss. Could there also be a huge shadow demand of buyers who have been waiting patiently?
plume (86)-
Problem is, the last man standing (last to devalue) in the competitive currency debasement race is the loser.
safe 91
ask mikeinwaiting
At least 1 reasonably priced house in Scotch Plains, check out 2239 Old farm rd now or miss out forever!
Stu …for you…
Front Page WSJ
PAGE ONE
MARCH 24, 2010
Two Decades Later, New Jersey Teams Play ‘Greatest Game Never Played’
Aging Skaters Get Back on Ice to Settle Foiled Hockey Championship of 1989
By SOPHIA HOLLANDER
MORRISTOWN, N.J.—On a Friday in 1989, before the biggest hockey game of his life, James Olsen walked into his school gym expecting a pep rally.
He’d waited months for this moment. The Delbarton School senior played for one of two powerhouse hockey teams set to compete the next day for the New Jersey high-school championship. Delbarton and St. Joseph Regional High School, known as St. Joe’s, boasted athletes who would play in college and eventually go pro. Ranked Nos. 1 and 2 in the state, the teams hadn’t faced each other all season. Neither group of players had ever won a state crown.
The 1989 squads never got their shot. Mr. Olsen stepped into the gym and was hit with a reality check: A measles outbreak at Delbarton forced officials to cancel the game. It was never rescheduled.
Twenty years ago, a measles outbreak scuttled the championship matchup between the Delbarton and St. Joseph Regional High School hockey teams. Now, the guys are getting together for a reunion game.
The New Jersey teams dubbed it “the greatest game never played.” For the next 20 years, the decision would weigh on the players, who always wondered if they could have been champions.
On April 3, that weight will be lifted. Virtually every player and coach from the 1989 teams will finally face off at the same Morristown arena where the title contest would have taken place. Players, some of whom haven’t talked to one another in more than 20 years, are coming from California, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Texas, Massachusetts and Maine to compete and raise money for charity.
“Everybody still talks about that game,” said St. Joe’s star center, Ken Blum, later drafted by the former Minnesota North Stars. “Everybody.”
Core groups from each team have been practicing weekly for more than a month, some since December. Individual players around the country have picked up their training or found teams, some hitting the ice for the first time since high school.
Local members of the Delbarton squad are scrimmaging at their old outdoor high school rink, running drills with their original coaches at 5 a.m., watching the sun rise over the rink for the first time in decades—and then heading into the office.
“Many of us are taking it very seriously,” said Mr. Olsen, 38 years old, at a recent New Jersey Devils’ game, where members of both high school teams had come together to reconnect—and subtly check out the competition.
The reunion was sparked by an article in the Newark Star-Ledger commemorating the 20th anniversary of the scheduled game. A St. Joe’s team member, Scott Williams, whose mother has brain cancer, read the article and thought finally playing the game could help raise money for a charity he started. Mr. Williams contacted Delbarton’s Mr. Olsen, who could relate: His father had died of brain cancer several years earlier.
Through connections on Facebook, alumni networks, and long-term friendships, word of the rematch spread. Now, 34 out of the original 42 players have agreed to play. Gatorade has signed on as a sponsor.
Through contacts at the National Hockey League, the teams have gotten jerseys and other items signed by NHL players Sidney Crosby, Martin Brodeur and Alex Ovechkin and linked the event with the league’s charity, Hockey Fights Cancer.
The teams hope to sell more than 2,000 tickets. Already, 400 have been sold and another 250 or so given away.
The teams hope to raise more than $100,000 that will go to Mr. Williams’ charity, Jam for Janice, as well as the NHL cancer charity, the Valerie Fund, and the teams’ respective schools.
Back in 1989, St. Joe’s and Delbarton regularly sold out their games, sometimes in arenas of more than 2,000 seats. St. Joe’s traveled to compete in Switzerland; Delbarton tested itself against teams in Massachusetts. Players saw their names in the local sports pages daily.
The two teams had clashed in the semifinals each of the two previous years, yielding one overtime victory by St. Joe’s and a stunning comeback by Delbarton, which scored three goals in the final two minutes to win 6-5.
“This was the grudge match,” said St. Joe’s forward Dave Infantino, who recently started a youth hockey organization with former teammate Mr. Blum. “Delbarton was more smart kids, shirt-and-tie type of players. We were the total opposite. We were very blue-collar, lunch-pail-type hockey players.”
Mr. Olsen, whose alarm clock went off at 3:40 every morning so he could get to the outdoor practice rink by 5:45, still shakes his head at the memory of learning the answer would never come. “It was surreal,” he said.
The night the game was canceled, the dazed Delbarton team members gathered at their hangout, an Italian place called Pistilli’s. Junior forward Jonathan Mortenson bowed his head, staring down at the table. He reached down and tore a corner off the white paper place mat, stuffing it into his wallet.
Over the years, whenever something went wrong, he would pull out the crumpled edge of paper and remind himself: “I might feel really bad now, but there’s no way I feel as bad as I did that day.”
A middle-aged rematch won’t resolve lingering questions of what might have been. But that hasn’t stopped the players from rigorously preparing.
By 8 a.m. on a recent bleak Sunday, a group of players in dark green Delbarton alumni shirts were gathered inside a chilly practice rink at the Mennen Arena in Morristown.
Grunting as they sliced up and down the ice, the players admitted they were slower than they had been 20 years ago, their shots slightly awry, their passes sometimes askew.
Some things stayed the same. Jason Waite’s father drove him to the rink that day. Mike Crutchlow’s dad sat in the stands, cheering on his son for the first time in 20 years.
Players who hadn’t laced up skates and donned gear since high school are scrambling to get in shape and back on the ice.
To protect the aging players, aggressive body contact won’t be allowed.
But that hasn’t stopped members of both teams from preparing for anything.
John Lively from St. Joe’s canceled his family vacation to Florida when he realized it would be the week before the game.
In Massachusetts, Delbarton’s Derek Maguire, who was drafted by the Montreal Canadiens and is now a director for Bank of America Merrill Lynch, started doing drills with his children’s hockey teams. Teammate Peter Ramsey stole time from his vacation with his family in Florida to hit the gym.
“We’re 38 to 40 years old,” said Mr. Maguire, who will be inducted into the New Jersey High School Hockey Hall of Fame on March 28. “But you never lose that competitive spirit and you never lose the desire to win.”
rgb (92)-
Sellers who can’t/won’t sell and buyers who MIGHT buy are irrelevant. The constant media reference to pant-up desire is a smokescreen to hide the fact that we’ve entered our 40 years in the wilderness.
“80-20 rule is now 92-8.”
doom, all the more reason to slip nyquil into your competitor’s coffee supply.
Hyde, some scary numbers.
And thats assuming that none of them take less than 6% commish? ouch.
Told me point blank buy this IPO which I shared. Hit the sell button today. Only said this IPO boom would be a short lived thing so get the pop and get out. This IPO was in Fidelity open to retail investors. Next one he likes is CBOE.
BTW final doom, don’t hate the game hate the playa.
Final Doom says:
March 24, 2010 at 10:32 am
John (81)-
Was that before or after he told you to buy low, sell high?
“GS guy did say only first few quality IPOs will get the pop, after that the lemmings jump in on the drudge.”
veto (98)-
Doubt the effects of NyQuil will be noticed over the massive symptoms of the PCP they’re currently mainlining.
whether the rule is 80-20 or 92-8,
there will be a migration to 7-11
John (99)-
The game is rigged, and the playas are zombies.
death rattle.
SAS
“270 Burlco workers get notice of potential layoff”
http://www.courierpostonline.com/article/20100324/NEWS01/3240341/1006
“270 Burlco workers get notice of potential layoff”
http://www.courierpostonline.com/article/20100324/NEWS01/3240341/1006
oops double post.
sorry.
I’m too quick on draw.
SAS
I predict GE will be up 5% on the day after the us treasury starts buying futures later this morning.
#95 A. West,
That seems pretty reasonable for a move in condition house. Looks like putting 15 to 20% down the PITI would be the same as renting. I’m not factoring in tax breaks or renovating. I think a buyer wouldn’t have to do a thing beyond painting the walls, and that’s only if they wanted to change the color, not out of need.
Short recap:
– John is a bean counter.
– We all know bean counters’ conservative reputation.
– John, the bean counter, is here touting IPOs in a zombie market of computers trading with each other in low volume.
– IPOs are a kinda risky trade.
What does the above say for the endgame of this whole gambit?
Good thing ive loaded up on GE months ago knowing full well it would be a likely candidate to complete the greatest stock manipulation the world has ever seen.
Just think of the possibilities in an environment where C is trading at 25 bucks.
Man new home sales plummeted!!! F’g no good blizzards!!!
The strongest reasoning i can think of for getting in on GE now is the extra ‘kick’ you will receive after the pump is complete and major war is finally declared.
Chi,
Thanks for the Delbarton, St. Joe’s story. I remember how good those teams were. Brick was a powerhouse back then as well with their future star Jim Dowd graduating a year or so prior.
Interesting Ritholtz post Re Jim Grant’s Conference
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/grants-conference/
I am confused census bureau reports lower sales all over us and flat in northeast
http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf
who is right?
114: Accountability? Who woulda thunk?
Statutory directors, board members, and controlling shareholders of Brazilian banks have their entire net worth at stake if their banks fail. All their personal assets are frozen for the duration of the liquidation process and may be used to cover any shortfall.
Yeah relo but if they get the government to bail them out they can avoid the liquidation process.
91. safeashouses
I had some of the hardwood floors done last year at our place in South Jersey. I don’t know the square footage total, but they sanded and finished two living rooms, a dining room, the breakfast room, the stairs and the upstairs and downstairs hallways for $3,300. They also repaired holes and other damaged areas. They did a great job.
The floors were covered in wall-to-wall carpeting sometime after we moved out in 1978. I didn’t think they would come out as nice as they did. Make sure you ask them to put in the quarter round as well. It makes it look really nice. The guys came back last week and did the finish for the new oak floor we just had put in the kitchen. Once I have the money they are going to do two bedrooms on the second floor as well.
Bank Of America Says Its Lehman-Style Bogus Balance Sheet Manipulation Is A-Okay
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/bank-of-america-says-its-lehman-style-bogus-balance-sheet-manipulation-is-a-okay-447982.html?tickers=bac,xlf,gs,jpm,ms,c,spy&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
A. West,
We have friends who are currently looking in Scotch Plains and Cranford. We’ve been along for the ride with them just to get a feel. Yours seems like a very reasonable LP and I would guess you get another offer above that soon.
117: True, I suppose. Not familiar enough to comment on whether it has teeth (TBTF?). At least there is the concept on the books, apparently.
re# 81 John – Maxlinear was a 90 million dollar IPO, you might as well work with Frank cleaning toilets at XYZ Hedge Fund if you are gonna pitch what is almost on the pink sheets.
Over 4.5 million shares have traded so far for what was a 17.95 open and now is only up 27 cents right now.
#118 Jim,
Thanks for the info. I’m trying to price in costs of renovations/upgrades into our house hunting pricing.
Final Doom says:
March 23, 2010 at 3:24 pm
Things ever got really bad, I’d disappear. Believe me, I can.
ive got my off-the-grid checklist and belongings locked and loaded if a middle-of-the-night disappearance is necessary.
people have posted good checklists here…nom, you have one, right?
Go back to October 2008 and I stated they first will recover munis, then investment grade bonds, then junk bonds, then stock and then IPOs. It will be a waterfall of recovery from less risky to more risky. Strategy was to buy munis, then buy corporates, then buy junk then buy stock then buy IPOs. Each time getting in early in cycle while easy money was to be made and getting out before fools rush in. Final strategy will be after we are flush with cash then RE can start to recover. My strategy has and still is to greatly increase my downpayment money and wait till 2011/2012 and try to time it to roll my cash in on a nice trade up home before inflation and home price rises or another second double dip recession hits.
This week I sold AIG, Ford, XL and CNA bonds I bought in early March 2009 and are going to do some IPOs with stop loss orders at 10% below IPO price and sell orders at 40% above IPO price.
Ben and Tim telegraphed their intentions 18 months ago to re-inflate distressed assets I am just following the script. I am still a bean counter.
Final Doom says:
March 24, 2010 at 10:47 am
Short recap:
– John is a bean counter.
– We all know bean counters’ conservative reputation.
– John, the bean counter, is here touting IPOs in a zombie market of computers trading with each other in low volume.
– IPOs are a kinda risky trade.
What does the above say for the endgame of this whole gambit?
123. safeashouses
If you email me at rednitz@yahoo.de (make sure it is .de instead of .com) I can send you a photo of how the front entrance hall came out. It might give you some ideas.
The IPO price was 14 on Fidelity, it opened at almost 18. Hit the sell buttom now and you made 4 bucks a share. It is a dog I would not buy that POS at post IPO price with a gun to my head.
You are confusing financial with trading. I know that complany is garbage. However, I was told get in at IPO and get out ASAP. I could care less if it was a piece of used gum I was buying if I could buy and sell to another fool same day at 30% profit.
I own JP Morgan Stock, this is purely a rental stock.
Juice Box says:
March 24, 2010 at 11:27 am
re# 81 John – Maxlinear was a 90 million dollar IPO, you might as well work with Frank cleaning toilets at XYZ Hedge Fund if you are gonna pitch what is almost on the pink sheets.
Over 4.5 million shares have traded so far for what was a 17.95 open and now is only up 27 cents right now.
Juice, what is your take on Primerica later this week? that is a big IPO.
Juice Box says:
March 24, 2010 at 11:27 am
re# 81 John – Maxlinear was a 90 million dollar IPO, you might as well work with Frank cleaning toilets at XYZ Hedge Fund if you are gonna pitch what is almost on the pink sheets.
Over 4.5 million shares have traded so far for what was a 17.95 open and now is only up 27 cents right now.
Estate hits the auction block – see comments on last two slide.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704743404575127923467200364.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_realestate
Bove Says Bank Stocks May Quadruple by 2012 on Reduced Loan Losses
HAHAHAHA, John, stop it, you’re killing me, please, please, that one is going in vault.
Bove Says Banks May Quadruple by 2012 on Reduced Loan Losses
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-24/bove-says-banks-may-quadruple-by-2012-on-reduced-loan-losses.html
It’s true! It’s true!!!
John 130;
Come on man, you are better than that.
These kind of statements remind me of the dotcom bubble where pundits were talking up pets.com.
Relo 129
sweet house! So i can have that estate or this clearly superior mount lakes abode with its close proximity to Manhattan!!!
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Mountain-Lakes-Boro_NJ_07046_1112372167
I’ll take the estate thank you very much. There is even enough acreage for me to host an NJREREPORT shooters GTG!!!
Relo,
the state in question
http://maps.google.com/maps?oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&q=4621+Muddy+Creek+Rd,+Harwood,+MD&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=4621+Muddy+Creek+Rd,+Harwood,+Anne+Arundel,+Maryland+20776&gl=us&ei=VjaqS7nNFoL78Ab-mYW9Bw&ved=0CAgQ8gEwAA&ll=38.853514,-76.554357&spn=0.000798,0.002559&t=h&z=19
134: Ket, for only a (major) fraction of the price you can have that Fair Lawn house I posted yesterday AND keep some powder dry for the upcoming IPOs.
Judging by the pics. spring has arrived early to both locations.
“More than $70 billion in wealth left New Jersey between 2004 and 2008 as affluent residents moved elsewhere, according to a report released Wednesday that marks a swift reversal of fortune for a state once considered the nation’s wealthiest.”
http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2010/02/nj_loses_70b_in_wealth_over_fo.html
but don’t anybody dare to suggest that higher taxes had anything to do with this..
Relo,
if i had the money for either home, i would be moving to Harwood MD long before i moved to fairlawn.
135: Those pics in the WSJ didn’t do justice to the grounds and, presumably, river access.
138: Blasphemy! FL in in Bergen County.
137. Maybe they just got promoted.
Relo,
it appears that the state has private river access.
http://maps.google.com/maps?oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&q=4621+Muddy+Creek+Rd,+Harwood,+MD&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=4621+Muddy+Creek+Rd,+Harwood,+Anne+Arundel,+Maryland+20776&gl=us&ei=VjaqS7nNFoL78Ab-mYW9Bw&ved=0CAgQ8gEwAA&t=h&ll=38.849129,-76.545659&spn=0.001579,0.003074&z=18
Bove Says Bank Stocks May Quadruple by 2012 on Reduced Loan Losses
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoACuN_ZcRes&pos=3
This is a good post, I stumbled across your post while looking for free songs. Thanks for sharing, I’ll be sure to come back.
135: I would have preferred the house be set farther back from the road, but that is just picking nits.
@64 – Out Of Stater,
Mind citing what town?
@69 – Doom
“US housing policy is now a 100% pyramid scheme.”
Amen.
137 – it seems that NJ can learn something from the laffer curve.
Thanks for sharing, I found this article while searching for mp3 downloads, useful comments and good points made.
#146 meter – Cobb County, Georgia on the NW side of Atlanta. We have county schools, police and fire here.
29 ““..former Chicago schools chief and current Secretary of Education Arne Duncan manipulated a system to favor powerful political allies by placing their children in the schools of their choice.”
Don’t worry – kidney transplant list in ObamaCare will be managed more fairly. It is not like Chimp-in-Chief or his admin staff came through Chicago or something.
Plenty of people back in the day who were a “friend of frank” made a killing. It is the fools not in on the IPO who did not dump and were left out of the good IPOs who got crushed.
Stock trading and Stock volumne and fees are dependent upon a health IPO stream the first few good ones will be free money for those in on it to attract the retail flow this summer.
All “H-Train” Hype says:
March 24, 2010 at 11:52 am
John 130;
Come on man, you are better than that.
These kind of statements remind me of the dotcom bubble where pundits were talking up pets.com.
I love the smell of Napalm in the morning…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aLmOb9zzVZ9A
@150 – OofStater – thanks.
I should have paid more attention to your handle.
Chifi don’t bust on my MBIA, I have a nice 30 year bond I bought at 34 cents on the dollar over a year ago and it still pays out. Great company. Much better than AMBAC.
Wow I can’t wait till I get to my final phase of my plan and buy a mansion for cash and a house in the hamptons. You guys are gonna kill me when TBTF and blind trust in Timmy G pays out.
the end is nigh….
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/gooden_busted_on_dwi_charges_in_r0kzWwVANxBp4sXMO2Le8J
Odd. No mention of the screams emanating from the pit in the basement?
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/21/realestate/21Habi.html?hpw
From the ‘buying houses with cash’ article:
But those not suffering such privations still have plenty of cash, especially in the Bay Area, said Matthew Anderson, partner at Oakland-based Foresight Analytics, a real estate consulting firm.
“In California, 12 percent unemployment means there’s still 88 percent of the work force that have jobs and incomes, and a lot of people still have quite decent incomes,” he said.
God I hate these people…
Joh re: Primerica IPO you need to be a baller if you are gonna push the sell button at the open on this one.
Warburg Pincus already bought 17 million shares pre-ipo and warrants of 4.3 million shares at an exercise price per share equal to 120% of the per share public offering price.
Citigroup will still own 46% percent of common with Warbug holding another 23% or more.
You won’t find this one offered to you by Fidelity Retail, this one is already oversubscribed.
As far as a buy and hold this, life insurance is always profitable but I wouldn’t put it past the POTUS to muscle in on this racket too.
“MTA Approves $93 Million in Service Cuts”
http://www.1010wins.com/MTA-Okays–93M-in-Service-Cuts/6648110
“Northeast Home Sales Post 13 Pct. Annual Increase”
How come no one listens to Frank?? I have been saying this for months now. Buy a home now, before prices go up, way up.
At 40% unemployment 60% – think of it 6 out of every 10 workers — is still employed. Man, the possibilities of selling with that many employed people. Clearly, a sellers’ market.
SAS,
Not to worry about the service cuts. I am sure they will increase fares to make up for it.
Iraqi Gov vs California State bonds now in par..
“Traditional Wall Street investors have taken note. Iraq is now considered a safer bet than Argentina, Venezuela, Pakistan, and Dubai — and is nearly on par with the State of California, according to Bloomberg statistics on credit default swaps, which are considered a raw indicator of default risk.
“Compared to California, I’d rather bet on Iraq,’’ Daher said. “Iraq is a country where there are still bombs going off and people getting murdered, but they are less indebted than the United States. California is likely to have more demands on its resources, and there is no miracle where California is going to have more revenue coming out of the sky. Iraq has prospects for tremendously higher revenues, if they can manage to get their act halfway together, which they seem to be doing.”
Its amazing what so-cialism can achieve.
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2010/03/21/gambling_on_iraqs_slow_rise_from_ruin/?page=3
Primerica is on Fidelity, just hit research and then hit IPOs. I put in for 1,000 shares.
Lets see what happens, it is solid company. 100K life insurance salesmen can sell a lot of stuff.
Juice Box says:
March 24, 2010 at 1:03 pm
Joh re: Primerica IPO you need to be a baller if you are gonna push the sell button at the open on this one.
Warburg Pincus already bought 17 million shares pre-ipo and warrants of 4.3 million shares at an exercise price per share equal to 120% of the per share public offering price.
Citigroup will still own 46% percent of common with Warbug holding another 23% or more.
You won’t find this one offered to you by Fidelity Retail, this one is already oversubscribed.
As far as a buy and hold this, life insurance is always profitable but I wouldn’t put it past the POTUS to muscle in on this racket too.
re#165 John – Fidelity? Stop playing checkers a real baller has a GS account. Read up before you pull the trigger on an IPO through Fidelty.
The first time customer sells shares of an IPO obtained through Fidelity in first 15 calendar day they will be prevented from participating in IPO process for 180 days. The second time customer sells shares of an IPO obtained through Fidelity in first 15 calendar day they will be prevented from participating in IPO process for 365 days. The third time customer sells shares of an IPO obtained through Fidelity in first 15 calendar day they will be prevented from participating in IPO process permanently.
I can hold 15 days, I will put stop loss order in anyhow at 10% below my price and sell anyhow and take the lump on the head. Heck I will hold it 20 years if it is a good stock.
Chifi I can almost taste that cold beer your are buying me on August 1st. Ambac is golden baby.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Bond insurers surged across the board Wednesday after Bank of America Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!bac/quotes/nls/bac (BAC 17.50, +0.37, +2.16%) said it will move agressively in modifying subprime mortgages on its books. PMI Group Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!pmi/quotes/nls/pmi (PMI 4.52, +0.88, +24.18%) shares rose nearly 25%, MBIA Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!mbi/quotes/nls/mbi (MBI 6.46, +0.86, +15.36%) shares jumped 17%, MGIC Investment Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!mtg/quotes/nls/mtg (MTG 9.65, +0.72, +8.06%) rose nearly 10%, Radian Group /quotes/comstock/13*!rdn/quotes/nls/rdn (RDN 14.09, +2.20, +18.50%) shares surged 18%, and Ambac Financial Group Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!abk/quotes/nls/abk (ABK 0.79, +0.06, +8.09%) shares rose 8% to 79 cents a share.
Juice Box,
Keep in mind he’s from Belmar; GS wouldn’t even let him a boy of such humble beginnings drive employees home in a town car.
I did eat in GS cafeteria a few times. Swiped a few ketchup packets
it’s for the children….
http://www.app.com/article/20100323/NEWS/3230336/1004/NEWS01&source=rss
What the article doesn’t bother to mention are the allegations surrounding Mr. North. Ms. Predham, why don’t you investigate the allegations–drunk driving accident involving a minor–that may have led Mr. North to abruptly resign, instead of quoting PR spin by the district?
The end is nigh…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36018558
John (130)-
Who does Dick Bove work for this week?
Really what kind of ketchup do hey use? Just plain ol Heinz or something special??
John (155)-
No. I’m going to shed a tear for what once was a great country and then step up my efforts to find a Third World domicile more hospitable to me and my family than the one we currently inhabit.
“You guys are gonna kill me when TBTF and blind trust in Timmy G pays out.”
John (168)-
If you dip a turd in gold paint, it is golden, too.
“Ambac is golden baby.”
Clot,
By that point we should be able to round up enough people to form a nice little clotpound. Purchase a modest estate and parcel it up
He is right 50% of the time with his guesses.
Final Doom says:
March 24, 2010 at 2:11 pm
John (130)-
Who does Dick Bove work for this week?
Safe 91 Stepped out, now about those floors 2-3 bucks a Sq ft natural want to stain them more. Also size dependent whole house more area better price 1 room forget sq ft by the job. I do them let me know if you need me take a look. I would really have to see them to know.
http://wcbstv.com/local/nyc.budget.cuts.2.1583545.html
Massive Job Cuts Projected For NYC
It’s a game of high-stakes chicken — with thousands of New York City jobs on the line.
Mayor Michael Bloomberg released a doomsday scenario Tuesday, saying if Albany goes through with cuts to city aid he will be forced to make massive layoffs — possibly the worst in decades.
It’s a grim equation for a grim time. Bloomberg said that Albany’s threatened cut of $1.3 billion in state aid equals the elimination of 19,000 jobs.
Hey I am going a a 50th birthday party for a buddy of mine at a country club an invite from wife says no gifts. What does that mean? My wife say it means yo don’t have to bring a gift but you should get something anyhow. I was thinking maybe a card and a gift card or something.
What do you guys think? I find it funny when adults throw b-day parties for themselves as they don’t want it to look like they are hitting you up for a gift but sometimes they really want a gift or worse you are only one without a gift or opposite only one with a gift.
180: So this means home prices will rise as recovery is in place?
John bring him a bottle of something really good.
182: Free 1 mo. subscription to your newsletter.
“John bring him a bottle of something really good.”
And open it in front of him. Tell him “it’s your 50th Birthday when else would you drink it”
HEHEHE man with a plan.
“invite says no gifts”
John, this is similar to ‘black tie optional’ which is a nice way of saying, ‘anyone wearing a tuxedo will stand out like a jack@ss.’
I would buy him one share of Ambac.
#
Rusty Trombone says:
March 23, 2010 at 9:54 pm
Doom at his associates wedding:
http://www.theync.com/media.php?name=14873-russian-roulette
NSFW
that’s some sketchy sh!t right there
When I write no gifts, it means I don’t want anything. I just want people to show. I don’t want the hassle of thank you cards, gift receipts or insulting you by throwing it into the garbage.
If you feel obliged, buy him a good bottle of wine or whisky and FedEx it the next day with a note saying; I had picked this out for you, I know you said no gifts, but if you need help drinking it, let me know.
How many polled understood the question?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=aTp.Sf7cvYvU
The plunger protection team must have overslept a bit today :P
Thanks maybe I will buy really nice bottle of wine.
owe me free tickets to something.
Fabius Maximus says:
March 24, 2010 at 3:19 pm
When I write no gifts, it means I don’t want anything. I just want people to show. I don’t want the hassle of thank you cards, gift receipts or insulting you by throwing it into the garbage.
If you feel obliged, buy him a good bottle of wine or whisky and FedEx it the next day with a note saying; I had picked this out for you, I know you said no gifts, but if you need help drinking it, let me know.
“The plunger protection team must have overslept a bit today :P”
It’s a sad day when Dick Bove speaks and the market doesn’t listen.
re: “gift for a 50 year old”
How about gift certificate for a rub and a tug joint out on da island? Preferably one that has less miles than a 1989 Iroc Z Camaro.
Clot did you write this?
Guest Post: Towards A 21st Century Peasant Rising
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-towards-21st-century-peasant-rising
I hate consultants with a passion, nuff said. godless scum.
I was doing research on industries I expect to face nationalization threat in the future, and came across this:
“BOSTON, Sept. 26 /PRNewswire/ — Charging that oil barons are destroying the nation’s economy, Kenneth T. Lyons, president of the National Association of Government Employees, today urged Congress to enact emergency legislation to nationalize the oil industry and to remove oil from the bidding process in the mercantile stock market. . . .”
It’s from 1990, and NAGE is a fairly large union in Mass (I think my mom was a member at one point).
Once the USG has effectively nationalized the healthcare industry (either directly for insurers, or through regulation for providers), and the finance industry (again, through regulation that makes the consumer credit industry into a nonprofit), I expect oil and gas to be up next, followed by utilities, and railroads.
The auto companies were a bonus for them.
John[197];
The motto of the consultant: I may be easy, but I’m not cheap. I can only aspire to that level of avarice, riches, an amorality.
We could launch into Dogbert punchlines ’til the cows come home.
[196] dissident
I agree, it has to be clot.
BTW, one of the responders said this, and I think it one of the most eloquent things I read of late.
“Democracy isn’t what makes the US special. After all, a 51% majority can always vote to piss in the cornflakes of the other 49%. Things like property rights, enforceable contracts, due process, a bill of rights etc. are what made America America. And you’d much rather live in a monarchy that has these things than in a democracy that doesn’t.”
Could not have said it better myself.
So note to plg and the rest of the crowd who cry “we won, get over it”: This is precisely why we find your brand of “democracy” objectionable. Unfettered democracy is another form of fascism.
Remember, Socrates was put to death by popular vote.
John, fundamentally the word “Consultant” could mean a few things. First and foremost 99% of the time it means I cannot stay on something more than 6 months and nobody wanted me as their employee. Then I like to start fires and move on before putting them out. Most consultants are worthless and then 1% are worth their weight in gold.
Remember Hitler won elections, nuff said!
In history there have been countless times where the choice of the people was their eventual downfall.
200 Comrade: I especially loved it when Honorable Rep. Alcee Hastings (corrupt judge, removed from office by Congress) boasted that “We Just Make Up the Rules as We Go Along” and Obama saying that he (or people) do not care about the process or rules as long the end result is achieved.
Yeah, who cares about the Constitution or rules.
I’m sure Shore joins me for advocating criminal prosecution of any attorney who advised congress or WH on this. /sarc
jcer, nom
you’d much rather live in a monarchy that has these things than in a democracy that doesn’t.”
Very poignant statement. You two are making the basis of a good argument for restricted voting rights based upon some sort of qualification.
Jcer,
Look up the battle of thermopylae and the role that Themistocles (the naval general in that battle) played.
The greeks did not want to build a navy as they thought the battle of marathon ended the Persian threat. Themistocles believed differently and realized that without an adequate navy they were likely to be doomed.
He lied to the people of greece (made up a story about some neighboring island being a threat to their trade routes)in order to get them to agree to expand the navy. As a result he had the navy he needed, or enough of one to win decisive victories at the battle of thermopylae
206: I’m afraid the only lesson Chimp-in-Chief took from that is the lying part.
Has he kept a single one of his campaign promises or has he told the truth even once during his on-going campaign/governance mode?
Jamil,
He also did not suit up and personally lead the way into Iraq, if we want to use the spartan analogy
hyde: you should check Obamaweek and Biden for confirming that liberating Iraq turned out to be great success. Safe to say now, of course.
Oh no it does not move me
Even though I’ve seen the movie
I don’t want to check your pulse
I don’t want nobody else
I don’t want to go to Chelsea
Shore, jcer, nom
perhaps the Greek states had the right idea. A citizen must earn the right to vote. Something freely handed to someone has little value. Something sacrificed for is respected.
(203) Jcer
Which is why some things must be beyond the ability of the electorate to change, or at least change easily.
You guys really need to get outside. It’s been a great afternoon.
Key Findings from the New Census Data
■The number of people without health insurance was 46.6 million in 2005, compared to 45.3 million in 2004, and 41.2 million in 2001 (see table below).
■The percentage of Americans without insurance rose to 15.9 percent in 2005, higher than the 15.6 percent level in 2004 and much higher than the 14.9 percent level in 2001.
■The percentage of Americans who are uninsured rose largely because the percentage of people with employer-sponsored coverage continued to decline, as it has in the past several years.
■The percentage of children under 18 who are uninsured rose from 10.8 percent in 2004 to 11.2 percent in 2005, while the number of uninsured children climbed from 7.9 million in 2004 to 8.3 million in 2005, an increase of 360,000.
■Lack of insurance is much more common among people with low incomes. Some 24.4 percent of people with incomes below $25,000 were uninsured in 2005, almost triple the rate of 8.5 percent among people with incomes over $75,000.
■African-Americans (19.6 percent uninsured) and Hispanics (32.7 percent) were much more likely to be uninsured than white, non-Hispanic people (11.3 percent).
214: My wife’s company offered health to their employees when they bought it 5 years ago. No takers (almost exclusively hispanic worker base, all legal). The prior owners had not offered insurance and the employees figured “why pay for it when we are able to access it when necessary?”.
for all you hope and changers: senate hc bill did not make provision to cover pre-existing conditions for children
Not all children protected under health care reform
Posted on Wed, March 24, 2010
news Not all children protected under health care reform
The health care reform signed into law yesterday by President Barack Obama has a major flaw in regard to children’s health. Those with pre-existing conditions can still be denied coverage by insurance companies.
The Obama administration is working hard to fix this gap in coverage, the Associated Press reports.
Supporters of the reform bill believed the president’s health care plan provided broader coverage for children.
When President Obama spoke to House Democrats on Saturday he said, “Parents who are worried about getting coverage for their children with pre-existing conditions now are assured that insurance companies have to give them coverage this year.”
Health and Human Services secretary Kathleen Sebelius said Tuesday they are working on trying to resolve the situation by issuing new regulations, the AP reports. The Obama administration interprets the law to mean that kids can’t be denied coverage.
It’s not expected that children will benefit from the full coverage of health benefits for at least another four years.
The health care reform bill was widely debated and at least 14 states are threatening to file a federal law suit against it.
No hope. No change. Just the same old shit; different day.
“Those with pre-existing conditions can still be denied coverage by insurance companies.”
Are you friggin kidding me? There goes the my only reason to have supported the stupid thing. I guess it’s hard to keep track of all 1400 f’n pages.
End of day O’man is just a better spoken and a little darker version of GWB.
anyone buy a car at an auction?
heard a few shady stories – as in, people who had their car repo’d come after the their car (and in turn, finding you).
i ask because this “lease” experiment is failing miserably. im not shelling out 500-600 to lease something newish and nice. that’s absurd.
but if i can get a nice ride on the cheap from an auction …
This blog is great. How did you come up witht he idea? 1 3 1
Veterans Green Jobs Leads Wave of New Job Creation in Energy Efficiency and Environmental Conservation
http://veteransgreenjobs.org/
The Green Police. Wait for Cap n Trade.
Yuri Besmenov, “Most of the people wont wake up until the jack boot is in their ass.”
Interesting times indeed.
Anyone looking for a job?
Heres a good one.
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yikes,
re: auctioned cars
2 yrs ago I get this call out of TX, nice guy who wanted to know the history of a car I previously owned and totaled in an accident. Insurance co gave me cash and took it since it wasn’t worth repairing. It was rebuilt and sold at auction. I wouldn’t.
I still can’t stop laughing; the drug and insurance companies get their cut of the pie, the government unions theirs, and little Suzy cancer and her family gets told “buck up, you live four more years you’ll get coverage”.
F’n classic, right up there with WMD in Iraq. Seriously Clot I fully support your new voting method. These clowns have no shame.
I just wish I’d come up with “vote with a bullet” before Corrosion of Conformity.
Maybe they will let me write a song for them.
Sounds like some folks in Dem. districts are voting with bricks.
Buh-bye, Portugal. Maybe you can sell Cristiano Ronaldo to another country for some debt relief.
“A coffin was placed on a Missouri Democrat’s lawn, another in a string of incidents against lawmakers after their vote Sunday on a health care overhaul.
Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-Mo.) had a coffin placed “near his home,” a spokesman said Wednesday evening.
This came after Rep. Tom Perriello’s (D-Va.) brother’s gas lines were cut, Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) received death threats and Rules Committee Chairwoman Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y.) received a message saying snipers were being deployed to kill children of those who voted for health care overhaul.
Several other Democrats have had threats leveled against them, prompting a closed-door briefing of Democratic members by the FBI, Capitol Police and the House Sergeant at Arms.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0310/34982.html
Going after relatives and kids is pro-level stuff. Scary.
I like the amendment one of the Repubs came up with today:
Everybody in Kongress goes on Medicare.
Doom 232
November is coming.
sl
Then again, I’d be lying if I said seeing the look in some of these congresscritters’ eyes wasn’t satisfying.
Too bad rictus-face Pelosi is from a district where people are so stupid, they think she’s doing good.
#200 Nom
“Remember, Socrates was put to death by popular vote” So was Jesus.
The kick against democracy while Jeffersion to a degree, shows that thin vein of elitism that says all are not equal.
“The foundation on which all our constitution are built is the natural equality of man”
The Texas secession line is off to the left.
Best clip of the day was that thug Boehner sorta explaining away the violence against Dem congresscritters before denouncing it.
Boehner and some of his Waffen SS wouldn’t mind seeing somebody bust a cap on a few of those Dems. I know it.
Last
borat obama = rusty trombone?
Ketchup is good for you.
“The National Association of Realtors also said Tuesday that Northeast sales were 13 percent higher on a year-over-year basis, the biggest improvement in any of the four U.S. regions”
Aren’t homes typically under contract for 2 to 3 months? If so, aren’t these numbers more indicative of Nov. & Dec activity?
wow.. modded on a msn article.
maybe the word g.un?
sl
wtf?
#233 Still
“November is coming”
and the dems don’t look to be in that bad shape after Sundays vote.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/03/if-theres-bounce-will-it-hold.html
fm, 246
we’ll see.
sl
Looks like at least one town hasn’t learned any lessons or is just plain stubborn. Lost $1 million in state aid and will pass on the whole amount to taxpayers totaling a 8.4% tax increase.
http://www.northjersey.com/news/88988117_River_Dell_would_ask_taxpayers_to_cover_state_budget_aid_cuts.html
220: Yes. I wondered how much GWB could have gotten away with if more polished and not such an obvious dolt. We may find now out.
221: We recently sold our used car privately to an ex-Ford mechanic who struck out on his own. He said he never buys from auction as you are certain to buy someone else’s problem. If he can’t determine the history he passes.
And, to think that some folks “over the bridge” look down at folks living down the shore:
http://www.app.com/article/20100324/NEWS/100324134/Seaside-Park-mayor-son-also-arrested-in-October
SEASIDE PARK — Mayor Thomas E. Connors and his son, who were both arrested outside a cafe in neighboring Seaside Heights after the St. Patrick’s parade last weekend, were also arrested Oct. 30 by state police at a basketball game in the Meadowlands.
snip
“The kick against democracy while Jeffersion to a degree, shows that thin vein of elitism that says all are not equal.”
We are not all equal. We are entitled to the same rights and protection under law, but we are not equal. There was never a day that any of us who post here could run faster than Carl Lewis, and none of us could work his or her way around a math equation like John Forbes Nash. I suspect that few of the women who post here look anything like Bngrid Bergman or can sing like Cecilia Bartoli and none of the men here look like (insert ideal guy name here) or have the nervs of an Apollo astronaut.
To pretend that we are all equal in all respects is not a worthy exercise.
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Dear Friends, Happy April Fool’s Day!
“Do you believe in life after death?” the boss asked one of his employees.
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“Well, then, that makes everything just fine,” the boss went on. “After you left early yesterday to go to your grandmother’s funeral, she stopped in to see you.”
Happy April Fool’s Day!
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If you want to be a Forex trader, you need a plan or a strategy to decide what operations to perform. There are many different types of strategies, but none of them are of uniform size. Each operator must develop a strategy that suits them and their situation. Some traders only on fundamental analysis, where others are not motivated to use the technical analysis, but is much more common for investors to use a combination of both.
There is a saying in foreign exchange market, The trend is your friend. Because prices move in trends, find out if you can, and install these trends tend, it will be profitable. Technical analysis is based exclusively on research and analysis of these trends. The market is moving clearly identifiable patterns, the models are investigated for years and are well known. The learning of these patterns and develop the ability to read these trends is the basis for a good strategy for the technical analysis.
Many tools are available to analyze and understand market movements and patterns. At the beginning trader, you have every tool to study independently, to develop a good understanding of their function and use. A master of the tools, you may continue, while the education of the next tool that you want to learn. Since many of these tools are similar to the time it takes to learn a new instrument, shall continue to decline, as you become with several of them.
They are based on many business strategies of the Support and resistance to find levels. The level of support is what is covered than the lowest price of a currency, the currency on that level and then increase again. The amount of resistance, the opposite is the highest price that the currency, but is usually done. Once this is reached, it will be someday. It is natural that the level of support and resistance to change gradually over time.
If a currency is soon beyond the normal level of support and resistance, then the currency should continue in this direction for some time. One currency will be as optimistic when it goes up, whether a currency is rising and breaking through its normal level of resistance continue to move upwards for a while.
You must determine the price tables contribute to the amount of pensions and the resistance of a coin. They study the maps on the search for a continuous pattern of high and low prices that the currency is higher. The more time you will take your card for more accurate and reliable analysis. You can then decide these levels, if you enter and leave a commerce.
This [url=http://www.forexstrategysite.com/]forex strategy[/url] is that the operators can be used, it is entirely based on technical analysis is based. To be truly effective needs analysis Forex traders who employ several strategies, depending on market conditions.
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