This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
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1st
Second
USA TODAY (McPaper)
WASHINGTON — Financial services companies increased their spending to influence Congress during the first three months of the year, while also hiring well-connected lobbyists to press their case on new Wall Street regulations, federal records show.
Investment firm Goldman Sachs, charged with civil fraud last week, spent nearly $1.2 million on lobbying during 2010’s first quarter, federal reports show — a nearly 72% increase from the same period in 2009.
Spending by Citigroup, meanwhile, topped $1.4 million, a 13.5% increase over the same period last year, according to an analysis by the non-partisan Center for Responsive Politics
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-04-22-lobbying_N.htm
Greece is today expected to issue a formal request for a bailout to help meet its massive debts after weeks of speculation which has seen its cost of borrowing spiral and the euro fall to a year low.
People close to the Greek Government said that Prime Minister George Papandreou was on the verge of making a formal request as the cost of insuring its debt against default reached record highs this week and Moody’s cut the country’s credit rating, warning that further donwgrades could follow.
The euro rose against the dollar to $1.3322 by mid-morning after tumbling close to a year low of $1.3201 overnight.
Despite sharing the single currency with Germany, Athens was being required to pay more than twice as much as Berlin to issue 10-year bonds.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article7106017.ece
Tax credit is coming to an end. What’s the market going to be like after it?
Nevermind, I just saw the other post about market home sales in March. I’ll check out the comments there and see what’s up!
Papandreou has just made it official. From a Greek island, he’s asked EU/IMF for help.
Nation bailout Friday.
Link for Greece:
http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-04-23/greece-asks-eu-imf-to-activate-bailout-deal-that-may-test-euro-stability.html
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/04/senate-panel-rating-agencies-traded.html
From Calculated Risk
“Senate Panel: Rating Agencies Traded Fees for Ratings”
Now we are getting somewhere.
AP (5)-
The market now blows with the tax credit. Without it? Welcome to your 40 years in the wilderness.
I fully expect civil war within 24 months, so housing isn’t at the front of my brain.
“Weekend Open Drama Queen”
Final Doom says:
April 23, 2010 at 7:01 am
AP (5)-
The market now blows with the tax credit. Without it? Welcome to your 40 years in the wilderness.
I fully expect civil war within 24 months, so housing isn’t at the front of my brain.
Mmmmmm a civil waaah.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aE6bRM.nVqns
Big Bank Breakup Time Gets Boost From Goldman: Simon Johnson
I’d call this guy focused. Break up the banks. They have become a destructive monopoly.
Nomad
Re Greek bailout…
We will see….. This is “paper” bailout # 4,632. They have pushed news article hyping an imminent bailout every few weeks for the last 2-3 months. ANy bailout will require all of the EU members to agree to it. Its political suicide for german politicians to do so.
I would bet $1 that this is just another paper bailout.
if they bailout out greece they open pandora’s box in regards to the other PIIGS
For the camera guru’s
I need a digital SLR.
The Canon EOS Rebel or the Nikon D40.
I have no existing equipment from either manufacturer so i dont have any “legacy” equipment to consider.
So Hyde, I heard California is supposed to default on their Munis in the next few months and observes are waiting to see if US Gov’t bails them out. If Uncle Sam helps them out, other states will want the same treatment.
Even the mighty US economy can only take so much. When does the camels back get broken?
What is your take?
http://www.businessinsider.com/surprise-california-tax-revenue-coming-in-above-even-the-most-optimistic-expectations-2010-4
16 – Nomad
For four months, revenues have come in ahead of expectations. Don’t be counting us out just yet.
Simon (11)-
Maybe when civil war comes, it’ll be you I’m drawing down on.
Nomad,
My guess is that California gets a back door bailout from uncle sam. Ask the finance guys how to do that, as i am not a finance guy.
Its likely that a number of states have some nasty CDS and similar financial instruments that are lurking time bombs. Their solution may be to follow the lead of the SEC & GS. That is to sue the banks to have the instruments negated. if that happens, a few banks could easily go kaboom.
The roadblock that the EU has that the US doesnt is the ability to manipulate its currency. Individual nations in the EU cannot control the value of the euro and so cannot play valuation games in order to manage debt. Thats why in the end greece’s only option is to default on its debt. But there are many ways to default, some less obvious then others.
Just the 2 cents of a highschool janitor
Doom 10 – Here I expect to lose another house with an overbid this weekend. Will the wilderness in GR mean I can hope to score a decent house at ask eventually?
nomad (16)-
Didn’t you take Econ in college? The presses will spin until everyone has bright, sparkling smiles and the world is a shimmering, sunshiny festival of love.
At that point, TPTB better hope they have everyone on the planet hooked on SSRIs.
15 Hyde,
Love my Rebel but in the 3 plus years I have owned it, it has had to be serviced two times, once under warranty and just a week ago, off warranty to the tune of 250.00. That said it is amazingly fast with loads of easy to use features and takes pictures of my kids that I would have had no hope of capturing with a regular digital (they move around a lot).
Hyde – Good Will Hunting?
Simon, what will happen when the stooges (basically, us) run out their UE bennies, queue up for the bank run and get nothing, then go home to watch Idol and end up getting a test pattern?
Doom, the glimmering I suppose is coming from the sun’s reflection off the stainless steel shot since lead is no longer used.
By the way, were you the guy in high school who could say anything to anyone and get away with it?
gator (20)-
For the life of me, I cannot understand why you’d bid into the dying days of a rigged-up market looking for its last greater fools.
Hyde we have a remanufactured D-60 we picked up off of Ebay with full waranty no issues and takes awesome pics. $500 camera, lense, bag, 4 gig memory card and an extra battery. I look up the seller and forward it to you. Father in law has a d-40 while it doesn’t have all the bells and whistles it is a great camera also.
nomad (25)-
Yes. However, I knew enough not to press my bets, so I took Summer school and graduated after my junior year.
OTOH, I also scare myself, because were the situation to present itself, I don’t think I’d think twice about squeezing gently.
Doom 26 – we will likely take a breather soon. Problem is there is almost 0 rental inventory here and if we stay in our current quarters for much longer, I may need to up Stu’s life insurance.
gator (30)-
A former agent of mine lives in her car. I think your situation isn’t so bad in comparison.
22 years in the business, former massive producer.
Gator – Doom is way right. Just hand in there – a few more months and the housing market will start to turn down. Inflation is going to come back quicker than the experts anticipate.
If the economy stuggles at the current interest rates, gues what happens with just a 100BP uptick.
Nomad 23
Nope,
I am way more handsome then that silly actor. Besides, i own my own car and dont have to hitch a ride.
nomad (33)-
The Federal Reserve loses around $150 bn? Read a report a couple of days ago where an an@lyst calculated every bp rise in interest rates will cost FedCo 1.5 bn.
When you go Japanese, it’s ZIRP forever, baby!!!! Zombies never come back to life.
“If the economy stuggles at the current interest rates, gues what happens with just a 100BP uptick.”
Thanks for the camera info all!
Anybody got a silencer they want to sell?
silencer? Where’s the showmanship?
Doom,
Come on now, show some professionalism. Its called a suppressor.
Barb,
Showmanship is in the placing of the round
News of the day, this tops it all. End is near.
Eye Opener: SEC poorn investigation
http://tinyurl.com/2vqxcaf
Hyde here is the ebay store, they had great service when I asked a question a year later.
http://stores.ebay.com/Cameta-Camera_Digital-Cameras-Nikon_W0QQ_fsubZ3QQ_sidZ27280321QQ_trksidZp4634Q2ec0Q2em322
And so it begins hot sheet this morn OLP 475k now 379900. Don’t have access for past history like 5 Bds ranch not a bad looking house in & out 10,500 k taxes soon to be more (town in BK school budget passed)about 10 %.Oh sh**t just looked back at listing electric heat, blow it up. Stu, Gator take that breather, Gator you can get by without strangling Stu for 4-6 months no?
When you go Japanese, it’s ZIRP forever, baby!!!! Zombies never come back to life.
Doom you are so right. That’s why we will have a 0% interest rate from now until who knows when. Serious inflation is almost here. I love when the Fed says they are looking out for inflation when in fact they could care less. All they care about is pouring blood into the zombie that has 100 bullet holes.
It looks like with the various accessories i want/need, the Canon is the winner for price and the performance seems about even. Canon for the win
cheers all
10.Final Doom says:
April 23, 2010 at 7:01 am
I fully expect civil war within 24 months, so housing isn’t at the front of my brain.
Weren’t you lobotomized?
19.Mr Hyde says:
April 23, 2010 at 8:04 am
Nomad, My guess is that California gets a back door bailout from uncle sam.
eh….I guess in the Bay area?
21.Final Doom says:
April 23, 2010 at 8:05 am
The presses will spin until everyone has bright, sparkling smiles and the world is a shimmering, sunshiny festival of love.
We’ll be looking for some back door bailouts in People’s Park……..
26.Final Doom says:
April 23, 2010 at 8:09 am
gator (20)- For the life of me, I cannot understand why you’d bid into the dying days of a rigged-up market looking for its last greater fools.
Doom: Stu loves Vegas….they are just looking to spice things up…..7-year itch you know….
Mr Hyde,
I think your DSLR analysis is spot on. We bought a remanufactured D90 for $600 and a fantastic zoom for about $500. The pictures are no less than stellar. But for $500, you can’t go wrong with the rebel. Thanks everyone else here for trying to convince the wife that there are likely (I use that loosely) benefits in waiting just a little longer. Now where’s my will?
Surprise, Surprise.
“A so-called panel of impartial economic experts at the Health and Human Services Department said the billions of dollars cut in Medicare, in particular, may be unrealistic and unsustainable.”
http://themoderatevoice.com/70212/u-s-health-agency-predicts-higher-costs-than-obama-promised/
Anyone want to help bail these 2008 Montclair buyers out? Cape with Viking range. $599k (same as their 08 purchase price). Only $15,400/year in taxes.
http://emailrpt.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?report=clientfull&Id=53960523_30363
Stu loves Vegas:
I sure do! Got paid a combined 10K through my last three trips after all expenses including some fancy schmancy meals. I’ve been on quite a roll lately to say the least. With that said, I should probably never return, but we already have a trip with the Gator setup for the end of June. May limit the gambling on this one to free play and just enjoy ourselves without the gamble.
Mocha 51 No sh*t,I’m shocked. Oblivion calls.
Mike (43)-
379.9K and electric heat? Good luck with that one.
Sight unseen, I’d say 299K is a stretch. All for a 10K+ tax bill.
Somebody should burn down that shitpile.
O-care not about health. It’s about stripping wealth from individuals and gathering massive amounts of personal information.
Welcome to new Soviet States of Amerika, suckas. Make glorious collective benefit for everyone!
#41 frank
Does John work for the SEC?
Can Germany attack Greece?
Maybe they can attack Greece, then do a pre-emptive hit on Portugal.
A two-front war, just like the good old days.
58 That would be a walk over. Germans are still good, damn good it’s in there blood.
Breaking news: some FedCo gov’s want to start selling off their mortgage paper.
Bwahahahahahahaha!!!! Can’t wait to see what kind of bid that rancid cheese will get.
Grim 59 in mod?
mike (60)-
Born to play football and overrun neighbors.
I cannot wait to see Maiden Lane offered.
.15 USD, anyone?
Doom – At heart, I guess I’m just a spoiled girl from Marlboro. Never wanted this POS house. Already here 8 months longer than promised.
There are things that can be done to make me happier short term….trip to Paris…new car…moving his office so we can have a dining room and training the d*mn dog so Lil Gator can have friends over. It won’t take much to buy me off :)
Crime spree hits subways
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/manhattan/crime_spree_hits_subways_swbb8CVvJlDcGTrKRkz7VP
Chifi, Manhattan is Disney no longer?
66.)
too bad NY doesn’t recognize the Utah CCW
Dink prev 243 – The house we are thinking of is definitely 30 Lorraine. I just did some googling to confirm it. Was on the GSMLS for $459k originally. It went under contract with multiples pretty quickly. I guess it didn’t close? I’ll have to ask our realtor what happened to it, as this should be in the comps she gives us for the other house this weekend.
Dink says:
April 22, 2010 at 11:59 pm
Gator,
I can’t find any other listings for 30 Lorraine.
The most recent sale other than 30 and 36 I can find is for 13 in June ‘09.
Doom 59.
I am thinking more along the lines of Battle of the Teutoburg Forest.
Lure them in then decimate them.
“A former agent of mine lives in her car.”
Doom,
If this is the one who owes you money, do not fall for the old h-o-o-ker with a heart of gold.
A debt is a debt.
Now, what is the car worth?
Gator you sound like my wife except the refrain is I have been here 3 1/2 years longer than I wanted. Temporary happiness doesn’t work anymore hence why we bit the bullet. Inspection is next week. Hopefully close soon. Stu I know a good insurance agent.
Veto 70
It might not be her heart that is gold. Is the agent living in the car the one that goes “airthight”?
US military in collaboration with NASA and Boeing just launched classified mission into space. The chinese and russians are soiling themselves.
Prepare yourself for the re-emergence of the hegemony known as the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.
Those who bet against her will LOSE.
ROYAL BK SCOTLAND GROUP PLC 9.11800% 12/31/2049PERPETUAL PFD ADR REPSTG SER 1
Price (Ask) 92.000
Yield to Worst (Ask) 9.930%
Bond of the day for people who love Scottish Banking bonds.
Pain:
What town did you buy in?
I’m seeing renovated capes, ranches, and splits on side streets of the train towns being listed in the low to mid 400’s. 3 years ago pos ones of similar size under transformers and powelines, backing to the tracks, or on busy roads were going for 525k+.
Pain 71 – Truth be told, I never wanted our place (always thought it was overpriced back then too) and so I have actually been here over 5 1/2 years longer than I wanted. But I did commit to a 5 year plan back in 04, honored it and I have fully earned my parole :)
Our original plan was to convert the current place at the end of last year. We both realize that that does not make any financial sense anymore.
holy cow JJ, If i wanted that much int rate risk, i would just buy a mcmansion with an arm.
Veto,
It is an modified version of of the X series space plane that Nasa and boeing were playing with for the last decade.
The idea is to use ballistic trajectory to be able to deliver payloads, including humans to any location on the surface of the planet in 2 hours at high velocity and low visibility.
The design is a self lifting body and can most likely be fitted to a number of currently used ballistic missiles/launch systems the USAF uses.
It has also been rumored to be capable of incorporating the Aerospike engines developed as part of the recent SSTO programs.
Dink/Beanbear….just found the sale info on 30 Lorraine on northjersey.com
30 Lorraine St.. . . $459,000 (Closing date 2/25/2010)
http://www.northjersey.com/realestate/031508_Home_sales_Week_of_March_15.html
@29 –
“OTOH, I also scare myself, because were the situation to present itself, I don’t think I’d think twice about squeezing gently.”
I thought you were planning to head to Chile when TSHTF.
Outside of the upgrades which admittedly were pretty significant, but depreciatable(my word), We have been paying a net effective rent of $1300 per month for the past 5 and a half years. Yes it sucks to have a lot of savings and live in what Gator likes to call ‘squalor’, but it all will seem worth it when we expand our real estate empire into Glen Ridge. If inflation happens, we’ll be the smartest cookies in the cookie jar. If it doesn’t, then we’ll be washing dishes for the next 30 years.
67 – this summer in AZ, you will no longer need a CWP. You can just pack.
Going to be a long hot summer me thinks.
hyde, – 79 who do you know down at the dod?
Or was that from wikipedia?
Hype – Randolph, it was a hard sell but finally convinced her on the mountain bike trails, and proximity to downtown Morristown
Dude, Where is the love???
Hyde, 34 “I am way more handsome then that silly actor. Besides, i own my own car and dont have to hitch a ride.”
Doom[18];
The number of people (myself included) on this blog still walking around who you’ve threatened to kill (usually shoot) could fill Arlington.
You ever think about slowing down?
Veto,
Among other source, i have the paper plans for a very similar design created by my uncle who was a NASA engineer for 30 years. His design which even looked physically similar could put a payload any place on the planet within about 2.5 hours when launched from a ballistic system such as atlas.
The concept of ballistic delivery is nothing new and numerous projects that were meant to do that have been explored by both nasa and DOD
Re[31];
31.Final Doom says:
April 23, 2010 at 8:17 am
A former agent of mine lives in her car. I think your situation isn’t so bad in comparison.
Exhibit #253 that members of the used house sales guild who were paid handsomely during the bubble years truly have no marketable skills now that the banks stopped giving $600k to anyone who could fog a mirror.
pain,
let me know when you settle in and i will buy you a drink
Pain: Congrads to you and the wife. Have fun in your new house.
Doom needs help. Pleese call free suitcidal hotline asap 1800 …..
“The concept of ballistic delivery is nothing new”
hyde. thats cool. If all this is common knowledge to you and your uncle, I wonder why the mission is classified?
Doom needs love
Not guns
Hi fevee to doom
borat, are you on drugs?
if so, what kind?
Seems like you are having fun with them.
Hyde how about coming over and helping with a fence for the dog I supply the beer, we can then go to the local state skeet field and kill a few clay pigeons
The mission is classified because it is carrying a very special payload.
It looks like a giant suppository.
http://www.space.com/php/multimedia/imagedisplay/img_display.php?pic=x37b-launchpad-100421-02.jpg&cap=A+United+Launch+Alliance+Atlas+5+rocket+with+the+Air+Force%27s+X-37B+Orbital+Test+Vehicle+%28OTV%29+-+inside+the+bulbous+nose+cone+-+the+rolls+out+to+its+Space+Launch+Complex-41+launch+pad+at+the+Cape+Canaveral+Air+Force+Station+in+Florida+on+April+21%2C+2010.+Credit%3A+Pat+Corkery%2FUnited+Launch+Alliance.
Can we please have the short list of what isn’t engineered and rigged?
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-04-21/goldmans-dirty-customers/
Hype thanks, yeah I can’t wait to have a mortgage payment I guess I will finally be an adult only took 15 years after I graduated college.
Hyde,
Whichever one you get make sure you have a 30mm f/1.4 somewhere in your bag.
93
the basic tech is known, but how they put the pieces to gether is the secret sauce.
I would be willing to guess that they have incorporated some hightech/classified materials that allow them to reduce weight maintain performance and reduce electronic signature.
it probably also has other intel capabilities that are highly classified.
Juice 99
i dont know if you were joking or not, but the capsule on top of the atlas is standard to protect the payload. In this case the payload is the X-37
Pain,
Sounds like a plan
Hyde – I have to add you to my linkdin account getting really hard to track emails these days
[51] mocha
“so-called” experts? Is their expertise in question because it contradicts the democratic party line?
The report came from Medicare’s Office of the Actuary. I’m not an actuary (not that smart), but considering it is a function within an agency controlled by Obama, and charged with coming up with predictions to help the agency function, I am inclined to give it some credibility.
BTW, I’ve been looking for a link to the report, but there is no coverage in MSM and the HHS website doesn’t have a link. Any help is appreciated.
Preschool chief gets $300,000
http://www.northjersey.com/news/042310_Preschool_chief_gets_300000.html
Pain,
I dont have a linkdin account. On purpose
Nom 107
Health and Human Services Department said the billions of dollars cut in Medicare,
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100423/ap_on_bi_ge/us_health_care_law_costs
I was forced into mine. I’m going to have to make sure your in my reg email contacts because I delete emails all the time that I shoudl keep
[51] mocha
I read the post, which links to a Huffpo version of the story. I also read the CBS version.
Huffpo calls the Office of the Actuary “so-called experts”.
CBS calls this the “first examination by neutral experts.”
I suspect Maddow, Olbermann, and Sastry will be calling the Chief Actuary a “GOP plant.”
Bottom line is that this office, filled with economists, is predicting what most people expected. And politically, it says that we got jobbed.
At least the dems can recycle a bumpersticker idea from the 2004 election: “No one died when Obama lied.”
I don’t disagree with any of your issues you raise. I disagree with your time frames and drama. You and the bum at the Lincoln tunnel with the sign “The World is ending” are both correct, but like his sign your comments are getting the same respect.
Final Doom says:
April 23, 2010 at 8:07 am
Simon, what will happen when the stooges (basically, us) run out their UE bennies, queue up for the bank run and get nothing, then go home to watch Idol and end up getting a test pattern?
[110] hyde
Thanks, but there was no link to the actual report. Huffpo said it was on the HHS website but I could not find it.
[98] pain
Sounds like a plan. Need more help from one who knows how?
Nom,
The only report on the website seems to be the 2008 report
http://www3.cms.gov/ActuarialStudies/03_MedicaidReport.asp#TopOfPage
Nom,
Found it!
http://www3.cms.gov/ActuarialStudies/05_HealthCareReform.asp#TopOfPage
Nom,
The PDF Report
http://www3.cms.gov/ActuarialStudies/Downloads/S_PPACA_Medicare_2010-01-08.pdf
opps,
wrong report :(
Hyde,
Right church, wrong pew
http://www3.cms.gov/ActuarialStudies/Downloads/S_PPACA_2010-01-08.pdf
I sarcastically note that the Secretary of HHS had this report almost 4 months ago, yet these findings don’t seem to have made their way into the debate.
Transparency, right. Hope and change!!!
nom the more the merrier but I have actually put in a fence or two. I need hole diggers ; ) Let me get through the home inspection then we can all talk.
[121] pain
two words: Power Auger.
Requires 2 people to operate but I can’t imagine doing that job without one.
Nom believe me I know, i have done sixty holes with a pole digger, swore that would be the last time no matter the cost.
108: Hmm, lots of friends & family on the Board too. Internal controls. who needs ’em? If anyone bothers to look, I’ll bet this guy will be rooming w/ Bernie in the not-too-distant future.
He added that he is doing the work of an entire management team. “I wear several hats,” Williams said. “I’m the chief financial officer, the director of communications, the director of human resources. It’s all under my umbrella.”
New Home Sales surge 27%
Tax News of the Day:
Interesting commentary from ABA blog–
“Members of the lower upper class—professionals who are living better than 99 percent of other Americans due to education, hard work and good luck—are beginning to revolt against those who are an economic step above them.
That’s the view of Washington Post columnist Matt Miller, who sees a connection between the revolt of the uppers—a group that includes lawyers—and the Goldman Sachs case.
“For several years I’ve predicted that a new wild card in American life—the presence of economic resentment at the bottom of the top 1 percent of our income distribution—would become a powerful force for reform,” writes Miller, a law school graduate and senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. “The SEC’s fraud case against Goldman Sachs may be the first shot in what I think of as the revolt of the ‘lower upper class.’ ”
Miller says those in the lower upper class can’t help but notice that others with similar credentials are living in “Gatsby-like splendor they’ll never enjoy” and being rewarded even when they fail.
The next battleground, he predicts, will be over taxation of the “Ultrarich.”
“The revenge of the Lower Uppers may have only just begun,” he says.”
**************
The “resentment” is foreseeable because this group, the group that I am not in, but close to, will bear the brunt of taxation and inflation. Thus, there is a temptation to further index taxes, to soak the “truly rich” in order to take pressure of this group of nouveau semi-riche.
The “problem” I see with this position is that the ultrarich are the most mobile. Push too hard and attack them, and suddenly we lose 10% of federal income tax revenues directly due to tax avoidance and expatriation, which would be a devastating hit. It really would not take much either—just one-fifth of the top 1% leaving the US could cause this effect. Then factor in the collateral effect of foreign direct investment Getting Out Of Dodge, resulting in a good 5-10% hit to tax revenues, and a corresponding hit to GDP, further depressing revenues, and before you know it, tax receipts are off 25% and climbing and the bus is hurtling down the mountain with no brakes.
We may not like them, but I can easily foresee that a “soak the rich” tax policy could effectively trigger a depression.
[123] pain
Sixty??? You’re a tougher man than me. I would have broken down for the auger at five.
Submitted Without Comment:
Jobless office workers move to stripping
http://www.nbc-2.com/Global/story.asp?S=12348221
Nom worked as a landscape contractor in college, before the current invasion of illegals had coopted that summer job from industrious college students. Boss was notoriously cheap, bobcat with the auger broke had 3 of us spend a day digging about 250 holes. It may have been more it may have been less either way I’ll never manually dig a hole again.
Our liberal immigration policy is the exact reason why I would never sink a fence post myself. You might as well get something back in return for paying for the healthcare no?
[130] libtard
Si.
At least we lawyers will make out on Obamacare:
For an upcoming CLE:
“There is still time to join us at PLI’s Health Care 2010: Managing Risks in the New Compliance and Enforcement Environment! At this exciting new program our expert faculty (with speakers from the FDA, FTC, DOJ, OMIG, along with in-house and outside counsel) will examine the new reform bill, as well as recent enforcement initiatives, including the focus on FCPA violations by pharmaceuticals, the creation of HEAT, and prosecutions of executives under the FDCA.
We will examine the broad range of issues confronting health care practitioners and their clients today, including:
Health care reform — Expanded enforcement authorities and initiatives, and agency operational changes
Advertising and promotion compliance — Scientific discourse versus off-label promotion, and use of Internet and new social media
State and federal financial disclosure requirements — Sunshine Act legislative proposals and new state laws
Clinical studies compliance — Legal and ethical issues
Compliance function — Structuring and organizing a compliance program, internal investigations and internal auditing, and self-disclosure.”
Hey Chifi can you give me a call so we can set up our Capital Grill August 1st drinks now that it looks like bankruptcy for Ambac won’t happen, thanks. Here is my number:
267-436-5123
Pain 129
worked as a landscape contractor in college, before the current invasion of illegals had coopted that summer job from industrious college students
Its getting scary. has the same job back in my college days
OOh Nom I can speak to bullet points 2 and 4. Can I come can I, please no seditious talk I promise ; )
Hyde if you have a grandfather still umping softball games in his late seventies then we can never meet. The universe will truly end.
JJ
you need friends so bad you outsource them to india?
Pain – I spent 5 summers during High School and College doing landscape construction for the wealthy in Saddle River and other haughty towns like Alpine. This was before the Mexicans came to town and cornered the market and when High School kids could do (and wanted to do) that kind of work.
I can build complex multistory decks, stone walls, plant trees like a pro and operate a Bobcat, backhoe and all kinds of cement mixers, augers etc as well as lay expensive pavers around pools and driveways like a pro.
Back then I was in the best shape of my life. I would work 10 hours a day and party all night six days a week and the ladies sure appreciated my rock hard abs. I also used to make dudes like the the “Situation” cry momma when I took my shirt off in the club.
first time I heard of a canoe like recovery:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36667656
Juice
Oh really? Well this is me after not getting into the gym for about 2 or 3 months:
http://tinyurl.com/dyuoyt
Juice,
Of course it helps when you have access to insulin-like growth factor 1 gene therapy :)
My HS and college landscaping gig was the single most motivating factor to pursue an education.
It was very interesting for me to read this post. Thanx for it. I like such themes and everything that is connected to this matter. I would like to read more soon. BTW, pretty nice design you have here, but how about changing it from time to time?
Joan Smith
escorts oriental
“Public policy is delaying the pig in the python,” Zelman told an auditorium full of real estate types. “The pig has lipstick.” Zelman is referring to the shadow inventory of foreclosures (the pig) that is making its way through the nation’s financial system.”
John, whats that joke again about the pig and the python???
[140] hyde
Hey, who said you could use my picture without permission?
[135] pain
So can the wife.
Sure, you can go. I don’t run PLI and I am sure they will take your money.
[134] hyde
Didn’t everyone? I also worked on a road crew one summer, and did a brief stint with a local contractor, mostly doing demolition and hauling for the roofers.
Nom, Pain
We are all professionals of one sort ot another an all had manual labor jobs at some point while growing up. What does that suggest, if anything that most kids today would not have such jobs since they have been co-opted by illegals?
Did we just create a generation ignorant of physical labor and what impact would that have?
I’m not sure if many kids today would even take on manual labor. The sense of entitlement is astounding. It’s a shame really.
Hyde see child obesity problem and sense of entitlement in today’s youth.
I second relo’s statement, hard labor made getting the education a very motivating factor. I knew what I didn’t want to do every day for the rest of my life. Now I kind of enjoy it. It is cathartic shutting the brain down and just working.
138: Sean,
Did your employers at the time go by the names of Nick and Bob by any chance? (No not Neal and Bob, I’ll save you the keystrokes John).
Pain,
Wife had me planting a bunch of stuff yesterday. I am feeling it today. While I was doing that work and enjoying the tan, beer $$ and cardio benefits my Dad cautioned: “You may not like it so much at 50”. I’m not there yet but can still fully appreciate the advice.
Good luck with the new place.
Relo did you work for a certain company run by brothers who’s last name starts with S?
And thanks for the congrats, I’m not even excited whole market mess took the fun out of buying my first home. That seem weird?
149
I agree 100%
The mother-in-law of a man we know asked him about yard work. His own snooty mother said “my son doesn’t do yard work, we have people do to those things for us.” His wife tells me this story telling me that “you don’t move to the blah blah blah neighborhood of East Brunswick and mow your own lawn.”
I’m sure these people would die of shame if their kids did a manual labor job over the summer.
veets (73)-
Is the payload a printing press that works in zero gravity?
“US military in collaboration with NASA and Boeing just launched classified mission into space. The chinese and russians are soiling themselves.”
meter (81)-
Still might have to bust a couple of caps during the getaway to whatever airport is still open.
“I thought you were planning to head to Chile when TSHTF.”
moose (87)-
Don’t deny a man his dream, OK?
“The number of people (myself included) on this blog still walking around who you’ve threatened to kill (usually shoot) could fill Arlington.
You ever think about slowing down?”
153: Nope, not brothers. One was a 3x Veit Nam vet who we could only occasionally coax into telling us of his experience. As far as motivation goes, that also put things into perspective.
As you’ve made the decison, do what you can to maximize the joy of it.
re #151 – relo nope.
Zelman did a simple exercise of adding shadow inventory to the seemingly improving inventory numbers. In DC for example, she cites a 5.1 month supply of homes for sale, well below the nation’s 8 month supply. But add the shadow inventory of foreclosures, and you get a 13.2 month supply. She claims builders “underwriting ground are unaware of these headwinds.” Just after she said that, a guy sitting behind me whispered an expletive under his breath.
#44
“Serious inflation is almost here.”
so doesn’t this mean load up on debt?
The trouble of course is the higher end, over $400,000 where investors can’t buy with all cash and the mortgage market is closed. Zelman cites a 45 month supply of homes between $400-600,000.
Unfortunately, the government is ignoring the higher end of the market, and ignoring higher end borrowers who may be in trouble due to unemployment. Jumbo loans are excluded from the federal mortgage bailout. So where does recovery shake out under all this analysis?? Zelman says it will not be a “V” or a “W” but a canoe. Slowly floating sideways, I imagine.
“so doesn’t this mean load up on debt?”
That’s what I’m doing. Ultimately, I will not be happy unless my total debt in thousands is greater than my credit score. I suppose the Heloc could put me over.
Isn’t 400-600 the low end? Plus high end on Long Island is flying out the door with bidding wars. Average high end owns a lot of stock in their portfolio unlike low end, the high end is up 75% in last year on their investments, they are spending again. Most complaints I hear is money is coming in too quick.
veto that – lawrence yun ‘the panda’, ‘next fall’ says:
April 23, 2010 at 1:09 pm
The trouble of course is the higher end, over $400,000 where investors can’t buy with all cash and the mortgage market is closed. Zelman cites a 45 month supply of homes between $400-600,000.
“Is the payload a printing press that works in zero gravity?”
We are working with NASA on a restructuring which will shift all of our debt liability to a sovereign entity located on the moon.
Who said we shipped all the innovation overseas?
#113
” don’t disagree with any of your issues you raise. I disagree with your time frames and drama. You and the bum at the Lincoln tunnel with the sign “The World is ending” are both correct, but like his sign your comments are getting the same respect.”
YOU ARE CORRECT, SIR
“Isn’t 400-600 the low end?”
Well actually, the avg price is about $400k in nnj but in long island they use a different measure.
anything that isnt gold plated, dotted with diamonds or donned with the shiny fendi eblem is considered ‘low end’.
Gator (80) – thx, good to know. Interesting it sold for asking, as I thought it’d go for closer to 5.
Does anyone know what happened to 137 Midland? Short sale @ 339K… not crazy about that part of the block, incomplete reno (needed lots of work), small footprint… but (possibly) good potential if the gotten under ask and maybe closer to 300.
Greece is simply a dog and pony show to divert attention away from the big kahuna’s; US and GB. $60-100B is a drop in the bucket compared to the explosion of the fed’s balance sheet, the rape of US taxpayers by WS, the trillions of crap held by Fannie/Freddie, etc.. The world’s biggest bubble is brewing in the pits of Chicago, not in Angela’s den.
Printing/bailouts will/can not balance budgets, clean up the OTC (hide a debt) derivative mess, reverse accounting chicanery nor come close to paying the trillions in unfunded obligations. It’s simply pissing in the wind.
It’s print, print and print more or die. The great race to the bottom has just begun. The first currency to implode is the winner. Don’t worry, nobody gives a hoot about the currency markets since there’s zero chance of contagion.
Ha,Ha.
re #165 – JJ yeah we all know about the homes in the Hamptons are selling in bidding wars. What you did not mention is there is a new lis pendis filing for nearly every expensive million dollar beach manshion sold and the bidding wars are on foreclosed properties.
What veto did not mention is that 2/3rds of the other sales were crap boxes under 150k.
“On the low end of the market, that is homes priced below $150,000, investors comprise 2/3 of the purchasers, according to Zelman. Another study out today from Campbell Surveys also found that 50 per cent of sales in March were of distressed properties (foreclosures or short sales.)”
Also what you did not mention JJ that in the Hamptons we are now where near 2007 numbers in sales.
# of sales between $2MM ~ $10MM in the Hamptons…
2006 – 299 sales
2007 – 396 sales
2008 – 219 sales
2009 – 214 sales.
With 2007 being the peak year for sales activity, sales right now are 46 percent off the high water mark.
A few dozen cash deals on foreclosed beach home does not a market make.
Simon (113)-
You ought to speak to me with a little more respect, jackass. Are you someone I know? Because if I don’t know you, you sure seem like someone I know (actually, several people I know).
There are 5-6 RE brokers around me who love to bad-mouth me, my agents and my company- and call me crazy- but, unfortunately, I have a string of correct calls which I don’t see getting broken anytime soon.
When I’m wrong, I’ll happily admit it. Until then, I don’t really give a rat’s ass whether you or anyone else thinks I’m crazy, a drama queen or a cross-dresser, for that matter.
“You and the bum at the Lincoln tunnel with the sign “The World is ending” are both correct, but like his sign your comments are getting the same respect.”
skep (167)-
Nice to see you’ve gone over completely to the ranks of the narcoticized.
Doom– didn’t you say there would be riots by june of last year?
holy sh*t, someone on my FB just mentioned their daughter, “Paisley.” Paisley beats Graydon!
skep-tic says:
April 23, 2010 at 1:33 pm
Doom– didn’t you say there would be riots by june of last year?
Doom,
skep is pretty much making my point. You don’t know me, I once saw your RE picture online, but thats about it. I am a long time reader that uses this information to keep me informed, and your nonsensical rants on the end of the world are watering down a good blog. I like to lurk, but I also like to keep it real.
This RE market and the US may be f’d up but slow down the rants and frankly the death threats, its rude and immature, if there world is ending fine, you can at least be civil about it.
I owe you no respect. I will give it when I see it.
I worked as a garbage man one summer. Our town had a “lottery” for summer jobs for high school students and I “won.” The kid on the other side of the truck went to Pomfret. He was definitely rich, although it didn’t seem weird at the time that he was doing this. Nobody probably does this sort of thing now. The lifer garbage men called us “college f*ggots” (even though we were in high school) but we didn’t take it personally. It was actually a pretty fun job.
Doom,
what’s the matter today, all out of Knob Creek?
More on the greek “Bailout”
It also remarked that some investors had begun to pull out of investing in Portuguese debt in recent days. “It seems clear which domino currently looks in danger of falling over on the European table,” Mr Derrick said.
The German opposition SPD is demanding a full debate on their portion of the aid package which could delay any German contribution.
So the IMF may be called on to finance the first portion of the aid. The next immediate step will be for eurozone ministers to agree an interest rate for loans to Greece – which will be considerably lower than the 8% they are facing on the open market at the moment.
Sounds nice, but the check isnt signed yet.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8639440.stm
Barb – I think we have just found a winner in the childhood therapy sweepstakes.
” Hon, we should name our child after a psychedelic clothing pattern I’m sure she will thank us for the unique name when she is older”
181
I guess it has more pizazz than “Plaid”
I get that Doom has a schtik and that his point of view is colored by all of the people in dire straights he works with every day. At the end of the day, all of our outlooks are colored by our own daily circumstances, which is why looking at objective numbers is helpful. And the objective numbers show a real estate market that is at least stabilized.
skep (174)-
Yes, I did. At the time I made the call, I had no idea the extent to which TPTB would spin the presses, bail out, pander and otherwise attempt to bread-and-circus over the complete insolvency of the US.
Unfortunately, all the above actions have now ensured that when the bottom falls out again (which, it undoubtedly will), everything will go straight to black.
Keep thinking I’m crazy. However, take a look at circumspect Mr. Watanapoulos’ post #170, and keep in mind that’s what the conservative smart guys here think.
girls can get away with weird names more easily than boys unless they are fat.
183 Skep
three minutes on a Zillow search with a little deductive reasoning says that any perceived stability is based on ignoring the facts, re: the ghost inventory. I’m looking to buy now, but I fully expect a 20-30% loss within the first three years. *Shrug* we will be there for 18 years, I accept it (but won’t be paying 2006 prices either).
Simon (177)-
Let’s say the current Enron-like response delays the whole collapse of Western civilization until the current generation gets old enough to get stuck with the bill (never mind the aftermath).
That OK with you?
Doom– I don’t think you are crazy. With respect, I just compare you to all of the people during the 90s who went short on the stock market in like 1996. You are probably right in the long run, but timing is everything. And because the stakes are so high, it is in the gov’t’s interest to drag this out as long as possible. My view is that we will be in slo-mo decline for decades. My belief is that it is senseless to try to wait this out on an individual level.
skep-tic says:
April 23, 2010 at 1:51 pm
I get that Doom has a schtik and that his point of view is colored by all of the people in dire straights he works with every day. At the end of the day, all of our outlooks are colored by our own daily circumstances, which is why looking at objective numbers is helpful. And the objective numbers show a real estate market that is at least stabilized.
Doom seems intelligent enough to recognize his own confirmation bias. But like he said, I’m a Jackass, what do I know.
FWIW, I don’t think housing is stablized, even though numbers may show that.
kind of like Plaid, brings me back to my grunge roots.
#186
Barb– how long will the ghost inventory stay hidden? Banks have no incentive to realize losses.
“if there world is ending fine, you can at least be civil about it.”
This is perhaps the dumbest statement ever made on this blog, besides a few zingers that came from that mysterious Bilova character.
Somebody mark post #183. We’ll be revisiting that one someday.
191. skeptic
#186
“Barb– how long will the ghost inventory stay hidden? Banks have no incentive to realize losses.”
that’s exactly right…so that vacant house next to the one you bought….that’s falling apart, doesn’t get put up on market but do you really think it won’t have an affect on the value of your home? No drama, its actually happening to me in my current house (which I own).
The IT Crowd – The funniest clip I’ve ever seen!
Somebody mark post #10. We’ll be revisiting that one in 24 1/2 months.
Libtard says:
April 23, 2010 at 1:58 pm
“if there world is ending fine, you can at least be civil about it.”
This is perhaps the dumbest statement ever made on this blog, besides a few zingers that came from that mysterious Bilova character.
From the point of discussions on this blog there is nothing dumb about this statement.
Im going to stick with my original predictions of a 3rd quarter currency fireworks show which will accelerate into 2011.
Final end game is:
1. Debt repudiation
2. Dollar devaluation 30-50%. All currencies fall vs metal.
3. Possible bank holiday
4. Austerity
5. War and probably false flag. Likely nuclear.
If I turn out to be wrong, I fully expect to be called out. But that shouldn’t just apply to me.
At what point do we acknowledge the fact that the most dire predictions have not come to pass and seem increasingly unlikely to do so any time in the near future?
As far as real estate goes I would rent. Either that or I would lever the heck out of a property with the anticipation for strategic default.
skep, Simon-
What you guys (and virtually everyone) doesn’t realize is that not only is my view colored by what happens to my tapped-out short sellers…it is equally- if not, more so- colored by the fact that I see scads of BUYERS for these properties who ARE EQUALLY AS INSOLVENT, only don’t yet realize it, because FHA, Phony or Fraudy has told them they can have a mortgage.
Look at the delinquencies/defaults from vintages 2007-present.
If that doesn’t scare you, then you’re crazier than I am.
Al
2. Dollar devaluation 30-50%. All currencies fall vs metal.
That could very possibly precipitate a collapse of the paper gold market. if everyone rushes to gold and starts trying to take delivery on a unusually large amount of gold the exchanges will probably start enforcing their clause that allows them to deliver paper instead of physical. When that starts to happen anyone holding paper gold will promptly see the papers value evaporate.
“At what point do we acknowledge the fact that the most dire predictions have not come to pass and seem increasingly unlikely to do so any time in the near future?”
true, but its all being propped up nonetheless. Like I said, if classic market forces are bypassed, then mother nature will step in and get the job done. It will find its level, although to your point, the time horizon it farther off than this blog usually accepts.
202.
Hyde,
Yeah, I just need a couple more months before I can back the truck up again. Got crushed in taxes. Have to keep those welfare queens fed.
Nice move on metal today. I would expect JP Morgan/Chase will drive it down on Monday.
The bottom is in, buy now or be priced out forever:
http://money.cnn.com/2010/04/23/news/economy/new_home_sales/
New-home sales rise fastest in 47 years
By Chavon Sutton, staff reporterApril 23, 2010: 11:48 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — New home sales improved in March at the fastest single-month rate in 47 years, according to a government report released Friday, as buyers snatched up properties ahead of the tax credit that’s set to expire.
Barb (203)-
We all know how this movie ends. Some of us have just chosen to cover our eyes.
Can I borrow a towel? My car just hit a water buffalo….
http://www.lewhif.com/
Talk to me about housing demand on May 1.
Doom,
Re 201.
I agree with with your facts presented about insolvency. I disagee that it will result in a civil war in 24 months and I disagree I should be shot for disagreeing.
Beanbear – Not sure about 137 Midland. Have not seen it come up in any closed listings yet. It was listed for a very long time. We tried to look at it on the last listing, but there was no lock box out the night we went. Stu was not impressed by how the house was maintained, so we did not try to go back.
#208
“Talk to me about housing demand on May 1.”
just like how mortgage rates were going to skyrocket once the fed stopped buying paper at the end of March? What happended there was a minor move which then came back down a couple of weeks later.
I fully expect some buyers have been brought forward by the tax credit, but keep in mind that transactions have been way down for a couple of years now so the “pant up” demand story is credible. Also, as employment improves, this will give people confidence to buy.
Simon 209:
We may not get civil war but only because of the total redistribution of wealth from people who actually make money and give it to the majority of fat, lazy and dumb people. We now have a majority of people in this country who can vote themselves more welfare every year.
I could kick my old man in the a$$ for telling me hard work pays off. I understand Doom’s anxiety perfectly. Our country is completely screwed and there is little or nothing that can be done about it.
Doom,
Enjoy:
http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=10495116
And I am not sure about Dooms claims of civil war but as this thing drags on, and things start to slip back later this summer, it would not surprise me to see some civil unrest. Not sure if it will happen later this year, ’11 or ’12 but many people are simmering like teapots (no pun on tea party) and at some point, steam comes out. Scares the hell out of me to think about it but it is reality.
“At what point do we acknowledge the fact that the most dire predictions have not come to pass and seem increasingly unlikely to do so any time in the near future?”
Define ‘near future’ please?
Skeptic 211
so the “pant up” demand story is credible.
Did you really just say that? LOL!!!
also, as employment improves, this will give people confidence to buy
ROFLMAO!!!!
libtard 215
2 days.
“Also, as employment improves, this will give people confidence to buy.”
Yup…
http://bloomberg.econoday.com/showimage.asp?imageid=19059
Plus this reflects the census hiring.
Shortly after we found out that Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction were wrist-wrockets and marshmallows, I stopped believing government numbers.
212.
I contnute to agree with the comments, but can’t stand the FOX news like generalization and paranoia of it.
Are you saying that we may not have civil war in in 24 months but the 1% top wealthy folks are going to hand over 75% of the total US wealth in that 24 month time?
We have had a lazy and dumb population for some time, I find it hard to believe they will use the power of vote to redistribute wealth in such a short timeframe.
Cindy (prev thread):
“So you are “rich” for the day of that sale (pass the $250,000 income threshold.) Forget about the two years to reinvest in like property – you get taxed! Can this be for real? How did I miss that?”
Oooh, guess State Media and the Most Transparent Admin in history forgot to tell you that. Don’t believe Faux News!!!
Okay, my question is this:
Which cage match should be the opening act, and which should be the main event?
Comrade Nom Deplume versus Schabadoo, or
Simon versus Final Doom?
Cast your votes!!!
(or does Final Doom take on a tag team of everyone he dissed on this blog?)
near future = years. Short of a USA sovereign default, I honestly don’t see what would cause a massive collapse in house prices at this point if what we went through in the fall of 2008 and first half of 2009 didn’t do it.
I realize “pant up” demand is a NAR talking point, but a stopped clock is right every so often and perhaps we should reflect on the fact that this applies to the bearish view as well.
Employment is obviously a huge factor in housing– I don’t think anyone disputes that improved employment is good for housing.
Nomad.
Civil unrest is quite common in US history. We are due. But again a huge gap between civil unrest and Armageddon.
[220] stu
Tax question on like-kind exchanges??? What did I miss?
“Employment is obviously a huge factor in housing– I don’t think anyone disputes that improved employment is good for housing.”
There is no way we can realize employment and real incomes as in the last three decades. Real estate is not coming back and it’s not stabilized unless it makes some sense i.e. 90’s prices. I am not sure who you are trying to convince in this blog–other venues would be more gullible–but if you really believe this you are crazier than doom.
220 Stu is not libtard Stu, but I take kindly to the compliment.
Comrade Nom Deplume versus Schabadoo? Don’t flatter yourself Nom. This is hardly a worthy under card. Now Veets vs. anyone who questions his statistical findings would be like Tyson/Holyfield. Quite honestly, Final Doom is really too nice to throw punches.
225. poor guy
I know nothing about the finer points of finance, but it seems simple. 1999-2000 the net bubble burst with techs and Enron. Real estate in 99 was still flat from the 80s bubble burst. Wall Street money went into real estate, Wall Street needed to get in on the game. In comes the easy money, the corruption, the burst. We are going back to 1999 and there is no stopping it.
[226] libtard
WTF! You saying I can’t bring the lumber? Or just that our dust-ups are bush league?
BTW, I sensed that Stu’s backslap to Cindy wasn’t libtard stu. Something in the choice of words.
Simon 219:
I never gave a time frame. It has started now with Obamacare. Next come the VAT and the capital gains taxes.
Not trying to pick a fight with you just pointing out that we are really heading down the road to ruin. It is sad really.
[226] libtard
Doom, I think you just got called out.
AHTH 229
No argument. Agree.
I’m confuzzled. Who is Gator’s Stu? Is that Libtard?
Cindy [prior thread]
The tax increase on all income, earned or unearned, does not apply to the first 250/500 gain from the sale of a primary residence. That amount is excluded from AGI, so it never enters the picture.
Any gain in excess of the Section 121 exclusion was taxed before; it is now taxed at a higher rate if you are in the group with the good fortune to have their success and hard work rewarded with a larger tax bill.
“but keep in mind that transactions have been way down for a couple of years now so the “pant up” demand story is credible.”
Pant up demand? Yes, multi-generational housing, food stamps, unemployment insurance, printing of worthless paper and parasites. On the flip side, got real sustainable demand?
“dust-ups are bush league?”
That’s all I was saying Francis.
Barb, Here is my daily name change shedule.
If I’m at home, I am either ‘Stu’ or ‘stuw6’. At work I am ‘Libtard’ (dubbed by my best friend Jamil) if I’m on the Windows box or ‘The Sausage Party’ if I’m on the Mac.
Sometimes Gator uses one of my computers and then I might appear as the version of my wife who use poor grammar if I forget to change the name field back.
In other news, DV is pulling back on phenomenal earnings if anyone is willing to bet that the loan defaults ain’t gonna be a problem in the ‘near future.’
“I never gave a time frame. It has started now with Obamacare. Next come the VAT and the capital gains taxes.”
All Hype,
Don’t forget protectionism.
[219] simon
“We have had a lazy and dumb population for some time, I find it hard to believe they will use the power of vote to redistribute wealth in such a short timeframe.”
I, for one, disagree. They can, and they will try, but not before they try to bar the door to capital flight. That was the purpose behind the HEART Act exit tax, and the HIRE Act reporting requirements.
That won’t work, however, because the ultrarich are watching these developments, and know enough to be on the other side of the door when it gets locked.
Paradoxically, I think that legislation, like the HEART Act actually increases the likelihood of capital flight. It’s too long-winded to get into here, but suffice it to say that the canary in the coal mine signals are what the ultrarich watch, not when the miners start keeling over.
[236] Mr. Want
Agreed. Obamanation goes down in flames unless he gets strong, meaningful, trade protection in place. Otherwise, Obamacare, financial regulation, and cap & trade will cause Depression 2.0.
They should a VAT tax on cat food to make those sr. citzens pay up.
[235] libtard
You’re on the death list now, Winger.
[239] JJ
How about telling us about the seniors you know who are turning tricks in order to buy cat food?
Oh you guys kill me. Im out at meetings for four hours and the bulls and bears go toe to toe.
Now i have to catch up. And start speed resading.
thats lame.
Et tu Skeptic?
I have really appreciated your rather balanced moderation. And now you show up one day as a full on raging bull?
Really?
Such is life i guess.
Wholly incorrect…..demand for 2006-2010 was stolen in 2003-2005. We are still going to pay for that…..
skep-tic says:
April 23, 2010 at 2:44 pm
I fully expect some buyers have been brought forward by the tax credit, but keep in mind that transactions have been way down for a couple of years now so the “pant up” demand story is credible. Also, as employment improves, this will give people confidence to buy.
Im 50/50 if prices will crash again or stabilize but one question for simon and Skeptic:
Where have you been for the last two years? and what has changed during that time?
The only thing i see is the stock market is up and we have 10 times more sovereign debt.
Im out at meetings for four hours and the bulls and bears go toe to toe.
No worries, tune in on Monday @ 9.00 a.m. Most people probably just copy/paste their comments from one day to the other.
235. Stu
thanks for the clarification, I think I had most of that right.
Re 245:
Veto, I have always been here since Fall 2006 I think. I can’t believe I am being labeled a bull for contradicting Doom’s 24 month civil war prediction.
Nothing has changed in the last two years, I believe housing will resume a decline.
I think its time to go back to lurking, wishing I went to Cornell and wondering why Stu is so public about his short arms.
Simon (209)-
You shouldn’t be shot for disagreeing with me. You should be shot because you’re a prick.
“I disagee that it will result in a civil war in 24 months and I disagree I should be shot for disagreeing.”
Hey, on a good note the markets are up again today. The PPT and the high frequency traders are so sweet to us by pumping up the markets we should call them Sugar.
If Mr. Want is BC Bob … could you email me as rozrr at verizon dot net?
skep (211)-
Except that event got Enroned down the road by having Phony/Fraudy step into the breach (with their iron-clad, de facto FedCo-ization) and start buying every piece of one-ply available that has the word “mortgage” written on it.
In fact, the more used the one-ply, the more Phony/Fraudy want it.
In about 6-7 months, Phony/Fraudy will have exhausted their “repurchase” capability. It will indeed be delightful to see what the fraudsters-that-be come up with then. we know it can be done, since in Japan they’re now entering their third decade of pretending the earth is flat.
“…just like how mortgage rates were going to skyrocket once the fed stopped buying paper at the end of March?”
Doom,
You are like a movie that drops the f-bomb too often. The writers either have no talent or no decent story to script to.
Final Doom says:
April 23, 2010 at 3:58 pm
Simon (209)-
You shouldn’t be shot for disagreeing with me. You should be shot because you’re a prick.
“I disagee that it will result in a civil war in 24 months and I disagree I should be shot for disagreeing.”
hyde (213)-
Surprised he didn’t ask for a side of fries with that.
“When asked about the manner of execution, Garner said, ‘I would like the firing squad please.'”
Simon (219)-
I’ve got two plane tickets to the Roman Empire that I can’t use. Do you want them? If you call me today, I can get a couple of seats for the weekend chariot races at the Colosseum tossed in.
“We have had a lazy and dumb population for some time, I find it hard to believe they will use the power of vote to redistribute wealth in such a short timeframe.”
[253] simon and doom
I have a solution.
Pistols at dawn.
We can go over to Weehawken. Nice historical touch.
plume (221)-
I only do pistols at ten paces.
Nom – Weehawken is impossible to get to as the helix is totally jammed with pant up demand buyers rushing the Hoboken open houses.
plume (256)-
Scary that you think like me.
Simon seems twitchy. Me? I’m just flat-out quick.
[204] Al
“Nice move on metal today. I would expect JP Morgan/Chase will drive it down on Monday.”
No problem. I’ve got the stops in place.
“Employment is obviously a huge factor in housing– I don’t think anyone disputes that improved employment is good for housing.”
Who’s producing jobs, the govt? Let’s see; give a man an ax, tell him to chop down a tree. Pay him with inflated money. Then tell him to plant another tree. Pay him again, with more inflated money. Etc, etc.. Unfortunately, nothing productive is generated. You are simply funneling $ from the productive to the zombies. Zero is produced. Therefore, zero is sold. Sounds like one giant fiscal loss to me.
Never in history has the govt been able to print its way to prosperity. This will not be the first. Sure you can delay, slap a bow tie on a pig, manipulate and lie. Unfortunately, sorry fortunately, the markets will reach equilibrium based on real, underlying fundamentals.
We are witnessing a slow moving train wreck, chinese water tortue. It’s impossible to reverse 30 years of a credit/debt bubble in 2-3 years on the foundation of gimmicks and accounting wizardry. It’s strictly shuffling paper.
Very simple; it’s gonna be a long walk home.
[259] Doom
“Scary that you think like me.”
Yikes. That is scary.
You do realize that if there is a Cranbury GTG, Grim is gonna install a metal detector.
lib (235)-
DV is a Ponzi’d-up diploma mill.
“No problem. I’ve got the stops in place.”
Nom,
Playing into their hand. Use selloffs as buying opportunities. I’m hoping Paulson will be forced to puke.
Roman Empire by some accounts declined over a period of decades if not a full century. Not 24 months. All empires come to an end, the human species will come to an end, but we are really not debating that on this blog are we?
There’s no way you could have a plane ticket to the Roman Empire, they had no airports.
How many statements do I have to debunk with you. Everyone you make?
[213] hyde
What is it about Utah? They all want to go out like Gary Gilmore.
I remember his execution, and the last photo of him showed him sucking down a nip-size bottle of Jack.
(why do I get the sneaking suspicion that the next time I see that, the condemned will be sucking down Knob Creek?)
While everyone is talking guns …
… when are you boys going to take me to the firing range in the Poconos?
“Roman Empire by some accounts declined over a period of decades if not a full century. Not 24 months.”
Simon,
24 months my ass. Try Bretton Woods.
Is Rome really gone? Yes they are all dead but that would have happened anyway…
The enduring Roman influence is reflected pervasively in contemporary language, literature, legal codes, government, architecture, engineering, medicine, sports, arts, etc. Much of it is so deeply inbedded that we barely notice our debt to ancient Rome.
“I agree with with your facts presented about insolvency. I disagee that it will result in a civil war in 24 months and I disagree I should be shot for disagreeing.”
I agree with this.
the doom & gloomers are not necessarily bearish. They are just negative.
Simon (265)-
Everything moved slower then. We’re doing the same stuff; only diff is, we have a wireless cloud.
R@ping, fcuking and killing is still r@ping, fcuking and killing last time I checked.
Things change. I was bearish for a long time. In September of 2008 I did think the world was about to collapse, but the gov’t intervention stopped the bleeding. At the beginning of 2009 I said prices would be down about 10% for the year. That was pretty close.
But most of the price cuts happened in the first half of 2009. the economic environment started to improve in the 3rd quarter of 2009 and has been building since.
I think it is clear that the recession is over now and we are in recovery mode. Comparing this to the last boom/bust cycle in real estate this might be like 1994 right now. My impression is that not many people in 2004 thought the economy was so hot either, which is why the GOP took congress then. 2010 may have a similar dynamic taking place, albeit more severe in some respects.
Ok – well it looks like I have found my place. My offer says that I will pay cash. I’m considering trying to put my mortgage in place before closing rather than after because I just found out that I’ll need to wait 6 months before I can refinance if I pay cash.
Any thoughts on that?
Any thoughts on where interest rates will be in 6 month times?
sorry, meant to say that not many people in 1994 thought the economy was so hot.
not many people thought the economy was hot in 2002 either. things never look 100% when you are coming out of a recession.
“R@ping, fcuking and killing is still r@ping, fcuking and killing last time I checked”
Blog “persona” or actually Clots feelings… this statement is just silly, dramatic and pointless.
221.
“Which cage match should be the opening act, and which should be the main event?”
Id take a Doom vs PLG ticket but would prefer to see a pincer move on the Communist municipality of Montclair as the main event.
22. Skep,
How about a nuclear blast in Manhatten for dropping property values. Fantasy talk right?
Hmmm, this guy looks and sounds a lot like clot . . .
http://crime.about.com/od/anylastwords/ig/Last-Words-of-Executed/Matthew-Eric-Wrinkles.htm
[277] al
plg disappeared right about the time I offered a put-up-or-shut-up tontine bet.
He said he was up for it, but then I never got an email, and he disappeared into the lurkersphere.
[277] al
and again, I get dissed for the main ticket??? Where’s the love???
C’mon out an play schab; dust off that freshman year psych textbook you carry around and say something pithy. We can’t lose to Doom and Simon.
homeboken says:
April 23, 2010 at 4:11 pm
Nom – Weehawken is impossible to get to as the helix is totally jammed with pant up demand buyers rushing the Hoboken open houses.
Also, bear in mind pret is in charge of the hard perimeter…..
I can’t post under another alias, because I would write “…that said, the end is fcuking nigh…..” and everyone would know…..
274.
Beach, lock that mortgage in ASAP. Rates are going higher. Minimun of 5.5 30 year.
Ben Bernanke gave me 4.62 on 30 years worth of Federal Reserve Notes. I am happy to trade funny money for lumber, nails, and granite.
Anyone going to the free DM show that starts in Cali in three hours?
Depeche Mode at Hollywood and Vine
Location : Hollywood , CA
Date : Thursday – Apr 23, 2009
Time : 5:00 PM
Speaking of civil war or civil unrest, if anyone is looking for potential flashpoints, here is one
http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/04/23/obama.immigration/index.html?hpt=T1
#277
“How about a nuclear blast in Manhatten for dropping property values. Fantasy talk right?”
no, not necessarily fantasy. but not something I’m going to put my life on hold for while I wait for it to happen. same thing goes for the other disaster scenarios discussed here. hell, an asteroid could hit the earth tomorrow. gold won’t help then.
this is you…
http://video.filestube.com/watch,bbad011de91a450b03e9/VolnyPro-Go-Bitch.html
JJ says:
April 23, 2010 at 4:56 pm
Anyone going to the free DM show that starts in Cali in three hours?
Being counted as an employed person doesn’t even begin to address the fact that a lot of people are not getting wage increases. Or, they are working part-time with no benefits. Who wants to buy real estate when you can’t really count on that paycheck being there for an extended period of time?
No way is my family going to commit to more mortgage obligation with our current sense of financial insecurity. I admit we are very conservative with our money so maybe we are in the minority.
This is too weird . . .
http://www.cnngo.com/shanghai/drink/obama-nightclub-opens-shanghai-220158
And as Jay Leno said, in true democratic fashion, the club is already 12 trillion dollars in debt.
Here is my impression of an average post on a wed afternoon in here:
How about Fire Breathing Dragons???
Do you really think we can sustain such high valuations if Puff The Magic Dragon came flying down from the heavens and started burning people and homes alive???
Think about it. We are Fckd!! Thats why i have my bug out bag packed. And my canteen and gold chips.
im ready for anything.
“not many people thought the economy was hot in 2002 either. things never look 100% when you are coming out of a recession.”
A healthy economy experiencing a slowdown is a recession. An adjustment in inventory can also result in a recession. That said, this is not 1990 nor 2001. Hell, it isn’t even the late 70’s.
Since the dot com explosion, we never had a real economy, it was a charade built on the foundation of excess debt and credit. How does the train get back on the right track when it was never on a track? This is not your daddy’s normal recession, this is a balance sheet recession. Huge difference. The only real cure is to blow it out; either pay down debt, inflate or default. There’s no other alternative/escape. Heads I win, tails you lose?
Long term, the most viable solution is implosion. Otherwise, we will have much more severe problems down the road. You can’t solve a record debt problem by printing more debt. Imagine, this scenario, the last bag holder with paper in his/her pocket? However, one positive note; it will, [short term] squash the fears of the gullible.
Besides the govt, where’s the real, sustainable demand?
but you can stop the hangover with more booze and this trick works more than once.
“but you can stop the hangover with more booze and this trick works more than once.”
But, can you cure an alcoholic by feeding them more alcohol?
According to JJ, taking it at both ends simultaneously clears a hangover right up…..
rut roh shaggy. . .
“GENEVA—A Swiss parliamentary commission April 23 voted to recommend rejection of an agreement between the United States and Switzerland obliging the country’s largest bank, UBS, to hand over details on 4,450 secret accounts held by U.S. taxpayers to U.S. tax authorities.
The agreement between Switzerland and the United States signed Aug. 19, 2009, aimed to resolve U.S. efforts to obtain the names of U.S. taxpayers with secret Swiss bank accounts.
By a majority of 15 to 9, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Swiss National Council issued a negative recommendation on the controversial agreement, which has put a huge dent in Switzerland’s cherished reputation for safeguarding banking secrecy.
While the vote is not binding and will not block a parliamentary vote on the agreement, which is due to take place in June, the result “sends a warning shot that parliamentary approval cannot be taken for granted,” Christa Markwalder, president of the commission, told BNA.”
Seems Chairman O is not revered in every european country.
Here’s Faber’s take regarding feeding the drunks more alcohol;
“Mr. Obama will do everything he can to get re-elected and that may involve some very bad decisions. He is like a roman emperor; he just gives out bread to the mob and produces games and circuses.”
Besides the govt, where’s the real, sustainable demand?
demand for shiny remains.
New report coming across my desk from S&P.
Low Economic Growth Is Pushing Our Credit Loss Estimates On Italian Banks To 1990s Crisis Levels
Life is good.
TRENTON — The state’s largest police and firefighter unions filed a lawsuit today seeking to block pension and health benefit changes championed by Gov. Chris Christie.
“We’re sending a signal we’re not going to sit back and take this without a fight,” said Paul Kleinbaum, a lawyer for the unions. “This is just the opening shot. This is going to be the first step in what will be a long process.”
The three laws, which were passed with bipartisan support and signed by Christie in March, are scheduled to go into effect next month.
They will decrease pensions for future hires, eliminating a 9 percent increase granted in 2001. The laws also require all public workers to contribute 1.5 percent of their salary toward health care, a change expected to save local governments at least $314 million a year.
“These are reforms that we believe are necessary and appropriate in all instances for all public employees,” Christie spokesman Michael Drewniak said in a statement. “Our desire is to make the public pension and benefits system fair and sustainable for beneficiaries and fair and affordable for taxpayers.”
The police and fire unions contend that the laws are unconstitutional because they undercut the collective bargaining process.
“These are issues which are negotiable, which could be subject to arbitration,” Kleinbaum said. “These laws interfere with that process.”
Bill Lavin, president of the state Firefighters Mutual Benevolent Association, said the laws will hurt public safety workers because new recruits will have fewer benefits than veterans.
“In an industry where we rely on one another, we don’t want to have members believing their benefits are less than others,” he said. “It just undermines the teamwork and family atmosphere of our very unique industry.”
William Dressel, executive director for the League of Municipalities, said a legal challenge from the unions was anticipated. He backed the new laws, saying they will help towns cut costs by limiting expensive pensions and benefits for police and firefighters.
If the union lawsuit succeeded, “that would have a major impact on the local budgets,” Dressel said
PHOENIX – Gov. Jan Brewer ignored criticism from President Barack Obama on Friday and signed into law a bill supporters said would take handcuffs off police in dealing with illegal immigration in Arizona, the nation’s gateway for human and drug smuggling.
With hundreds of protesters outside the state Capitol shouting that the bill would lead to civil rights abuses, Brewer said critics were “overreacting” and that she wouldn’t tolerate racial profiling.
“We in Arizona have been more than patient waiting for Washington to act,” Brewer said after signing the law. “But decades of inaction and misguided policy have created a dangerous and unacceptable situation.”
Earlier Friday, Obama called the Arizona bill “misguided” and instructed the Justice Department to examine it to see if it’s legal. He also said the federal government must enact immigration reform at the national level — or leave the door open to “irresponsibility by others.”
“That includes, for example, the recent efforts in Arizona, which threaten to undermine basic notions of fairness that we cherish as Americans, as well as the trust between police and their communities that is so crucial to keeping us safe,” Obama said.
The legislation, sent to the Republican governor by the GOP-led Legislature, makes it a crime under state law to be in the country illegally. It also requires local police officers to question people about their immigration status if there is reason to suspect they are illegal immigrants, allows lawsuits against government agencies that hinder enforcement of immigration laws, and make it illegal to hire illegal immigrants for day labor or knowingly transport them.
The Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund said it plans a legal challenge to the law, arguing it “launches Arizona into a spiral of pervasive fear, community distrust, increased crime and costly litigation, with nationwide repercussions.”
Brewer ordered the state’s law enforcement licensing agency to develop a training course on how to implement the law while respecting civil rights.
The bill will take effect in late July or early August.
At the Capitol, some 2,000 protesters booed county Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox when she announced that “the governor did not listen to our prayers.”
“It’s going to change our lives,” said Emilio Almodovar, a 13-year-old American citizen from Phoenix. “We can’t walk to school any more. We can’t be in the streets anymore without the pigs thinking we’re illegal immigrants.”
Brewer signed the bill in a state auditorium about a mile from the Capitol complex where demonstrators have protested the legislation since the measure was approved by lawmakers on Monday. Their numbers grew steadily throughout the week, with buses bringing protesters from as far away as Los Angeles.
Brewer, who faces a tough election battle and growing anger in the state over illegal immigrants, said the law “protects every Arizona citizen.”
Anti-immigrant anger has swelled in the past month, after rancher Rob Krentz was found dead on his land north of Douglas, near the Mexico border. Authorities believe he was fatally shot by an illegal immigrant possibly connected to a drug smuggling cartel.
Arizona has an estimated 460,000 illegal immigrants, and its harsh, remote desert serves as the corridor for the majority of illegal immigrants and drugs moving north into the U.S. from Mexico.
U.S. Rep. Raul Grijalva, a Democrat, said he closed his Arizona offices at noon Friday after his staff in Yuma and Tucson were flooded with calls this week, some from people threatening violent acts and shouting racial slurs. He called on businesses and groups looking for convention and meeting locations to boycott Arizona.
The bill’s Republican sponsor, state Rep. Russell Pearce of Mesa, said Obama and other critics of the bill were “against law enforcement, our citizens and the rule of law.”
Pearce said the legislation would remove “political handcuffs” from police and help drive illegal immigrants from the state.
“Illegal is illegal,” said Pearce, a driving force on the issue in Arizona. “We’ll have less crime. We’ll have lower taxes. We’ll have safer neighborhoods. We’ll have shorter lines in the emergency rooms. We’ll have smaller classrooms.”
Well, I don’t get it. Isn’t it already illegal to hire them? What is there in this Arizona law that is any different than the laws already on the books? Or maybe is it just a way of saying we are going to enforce the laws we have? I had no idea that there were close to 1/2 million illegals in Arizona. That’s like a city in itself.
Administration trims bailout cost estimate to $87B
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is telling Congress that the administration believes the final cost of the government’s heavily criticized financial bailout effort could be as low as $87 billion.
Geithner made the new estimate in a letter Friday to congressional leaders that was obtained by The Associated Press.
A year ago, officials were estimating the bailout could cost as much as $500 billion.
He said that the administration was estimating a year ago that the effort to support the financial system would cost more than $500 billion, or 3.5 percent of the total economy, as measured by the gross domestic product. He said the new lower estimate would be the equivalent of less than 1 percent of GDP.
Wells Fargo CEO Feels Your Pain: “I Have Been Upside Down On a Mortgage”
WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama criticized Arizona’s tough immigration bill as irresponsible Friday and said his administration is examining whether it would violate civil rights.
Obama said the federal government must act responsibly to reform national immigration law — or “open the door to irresponsibility by others.”
“That includes, for example, the recent efforts in Arizona, which threaten to undermine basic notions of fairness that we cherish as Americans, as well as the trust between police and their communities that is so crucial to keeping us safe,” Obama said.
If signed into law by Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer, the legislation would require police to question people about their immigration status if there’s reason to suspect they’re in the country illegally. Civil rights activists say such a law would lead to racial profiling and deter Hispanics from reporting crimes.
Obama instructed the Justice Department to examine the bill to see if it would violate civil rights.
Obama spoke at a naturalization ceremony in the Rose Garden for 24 active duty service members from more than a dozen countries. He commended the new U.S. citizens for serving a country they could not yet call their own, while following a legal path to citizenship.
Obama said he will continue to work with lawmakers on Capitol Hill to enact a comprehensive overhaul of immigration law. He said there are 11 current Republican senators who have voted for immigration reform in the past.
Brewer, a Republican, has until Saturday to act on the immigration bill sent to her desk. She can sign, veto or allow it to become law without her signature.
“If we continue to fail to act at a federal level, we will continue to see misguided efforts opening up around the country,” Obama said. “As a nation, as a people, we can choose a different future.”
301.House Whine says:
April 23, 2010 at 7:19 pm
Well, I don’t get it. Isn’t it already illegal to hire them? What is there in this Arizona law that is any different than the laws already on the books? Or maybe is it just a way of saying we are going to enforce the laws we have? I had no idea that there were close to 1/2 million illegals in Arizona. That’s like a city in itself.
It’s also illegal to ask them if their illegal.
“Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is telling Congress that the administration believes the final cost of the government’s heavily criticized financial bailout effort could be as low as $87 billion.”
I would agree, if the spreadsheet was produced by Turbo Tax.
Respeck my authroty
Short arms? What?
Square footage question: in NJ, is a finished walkout basement included in total square footage?
Clearly, living space underground is less valuable than space above ground, but what is the norm (law?) regarding basements in New Jersey?
Clot, with all this negativity today … i almost wonder what you’d tell us about getting a pool in the backyard if we were friends off-board.
do you really think things are going to get that bad? as in civil war, hyper inflation, whatever?
yikes (310)-
Yes to all scenarios you mentioned. As for the pool, all you need for waterboarding is maybe a gallon or two of H2o; why go to the expense of digging and lining a giant hole in your yard?
Well Doom! You were busy today.
305.Confused in NJ says:
April 23, 2010 at 9:36 pm
It’s also illegal to ask them if their illegal.
All you need to do is have a cop stop someone who is bicycling on the sidewalk and produce ID. Done. I am tired of almost being run over by these clueless clowns…..
Short arms = T-Rex arms
Nice article on square footage, using Fannie Mae Guidelines and also ANSI standards…..
http://appraisalnewsonline.typepad.com/appraisal_news_for_real_e/2008/10/calculating-the.html
235 Stu:
“At work I am ‘Libtard’ (dubbed by my best friend Jamil) ”
ah, my friend Stu. Long time no see. How have you been? I have exciting news.
The last 2 weeks I’ve done extensive research on the missing birth certificate of the Chosen One, both in Maui and Honolulu areas. As many people probably don’t know it from State Media, the long-form certificate has been sealed and can only be released by the Chosen One (the simpler, short form version is available).
So far, no sign of birth certificate either in Maui or in Honolulu. I think I saw something on the road to Hana, will have to check that again. Tomorrow time for underwater exploration (you never know where the Chosen One has hidden the truth). A bit windy for scuba in Molokine but somebody has to do the research. Will report back to you tomorrow. Now have to check Lahaina (got a ot tip about that).
http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/26200.html
Stu – 220 and Nom @ 233
“Don’t believe faux news.”
Thanks for the clarification. I DID fall for an email forwarded from a friend who has since posted this Tax Foundation publication.
Thanks again
#283 Al – I agree, I just wonder how fast mortgage interest rates will go up – six months from now on the one hand seems like a very short time – Nov/Dec will interest rates really skyrocket?
The fact that I can close very quickly was important in my getting the house and I’d like to cut off the uncertainty nowbut this six month rule throws a monkey wrench into my planning!
#283 Al – I agree, I just wonder how fast mortgage interest rates will go up – six months from now on the one hand seems like a very short time – Nov/Dec will interest rates really skyrocket?
The fact that I can close very quickly was important in my getting the house and I’d like to cut off the uncertainty nowbut this six month rule throws a monkey wrench into my planning!
Maybe Larry should just say women can’t do math again, and get it over with:
“Larry Summers, whose days in the Obama administration are thankfully numbered, presents the most incoherent rambling defense of our monopoly banking system yet to appear in the public domain. When asked if US mega banks should be broken up, reports the HuffPo, “Summers said no. He added that it’s not significant. But that’s not the important issue,” Summers said during the interview, adding to his answer as to why the U.S. shouldn’t break up megabanks. “[Observers] believe that it would actually make us less stable, because the individual banks would be less diversified and, therefore, at greater risk of failing, because they would haven’t profits in one area to turn to when a different area got in trouble. And most observers believe that dealing with the simultaneous failure of many — many small institutions would actually generate more need for bailouts and reliance on taxpayers than the current economic environment.” We dare you to reread the above from Larry the Hutt and not have your frontal lobe disintegrate into antimatter. Sure, 4 out of 5 Goldman CDO traders totally agree that Goldman’s monopoly in the capital markets is terrific, and, in fact, if someone could “organize” a liquidity event at RBC, Barclays, UBS and CS, they would really apprciate it, doubly so if, like JPM, they could then acquire the firms for a dollar over their Fed guaranteed debt. As for everybody else, well, if you have any doubt that Larry Summers is having his future personal assistant organizing his corner office at 200 West, we hope this should resolve it.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/larry-summers-opens-mouth-proves-all-his-critics-are-correct
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html
Speaking of banks
BFF – 7 – all IL
Dang Cindy,
I was about to link to it. Almost a billion hit to the FDIC.
Say, thanks again Stu. You were totally right on about the “faux news” deal.
Hey, I figured the darn bill was 2,000 pages, maybe they DID slip that in and someone just got around to reading that part.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7Hpz26EH7js&pos=1
Here’s one from Bloomberg that posits Levin will grill GS. I do believe I have heard this one before.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
BeachBum-
Congrats on the house. Belmar?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703404004575198603552079406.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsFifth
New Rules of Remodeling
Folks are underwater and deciding to stay put. So, “…Home-improvement retailers are seeing a clear trend toward smaller renovations.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/04/24/number-of-the-week-103-months-to-clear-housing-inventory/
Number of the Week: 103 Months to Clear Housing Inventory
http://www.sacbee.com/2010/04/24/2702392/cash-for-appliances-likely-to.html
California: Cash for Appliances
You can’t make this stuff up.
#300/304 Confused
More about illegal aliens:
S.C. pol: Lazy people to blame for illegal immigration
JIM DAVENPORT
Associated Press Writer
SPARTANBURG, South Carolina (AP) — South Carolina’s lieutenant governor said Friday that lazy residents who don’t want to take jobs harvesting the state’s crops are the root of its problems with illegal immigration.
Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer’s remarks came at the opening of a debate of Republican gubernatorial hopefuls. The candidates were asked about Arizona’s new tough illegal immigration law and whether South Carolina should do more to fight the problem.
“The real problem is the workforce,” Bauer said. State relief programs leave people unwilling to work the jobs in fields and orchards now filled with migrant workers, he said.
“The problem is we have a give-away system in this country and in this state that is so strong that people would rather sit home and do nothing than do these jobs. Laziness is not a disability,” Bauer said. “There are lot of people that are flat out lazy and they are using up the goods and services that we have in this state.”
http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/04/23/1595696/scs-bauer-lazy-people-cause-illegal.html
From the Record via NorthJersey.com
NJ students plan statewide walkout Tuesday
By LESLIE BRODY The Record
Posted: 04/23/2010 11:00 PM
A Facebook page encouraging New Jersey students to cut class Tuesday to rally against state aid reductions has more than 13,000 signed up to participate. The page, called “Protest NJ Education Cuts – State Wide School Walk Out,” exhorts students – with incorrect spelling at times — to express their outrage against state funding cuts.
The event was launched before voters rejected most school budgets on Tuesday, but after Governor Christie announced he was freezing aid promised to districts this year and cutting $820 million for fiscal 2011. Christie says the cuts are necessary to close an $11 billion state budget gap.
“This is one of the most serious things to ever happen in the state of New Jersey,” the Facebook page says. “The only potential for change lies in the students. The youth who will be effected [sic] by all these cuts need to rise up and do something.
Gee, I’m shocked.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100423/ap_on_bi_ge/us_health_care_law_costs
NJCoast – you’re back!! I tried to email you but I must have an old address. Yes, Belmar. I’ll believe it when I see it – but if/when I do – drinks on the porch!!
Aw why be so angwy?
Save the final doom
Hii fiveeeee
330- If this “outrage” keeps up about the cuts in education I may actually write a letter to Christie supporting him, which would be quite a sea change for me personally. The thing is there are many other worthwhile programs, aside from educational ones, that are being cut in a major way. Or at least, cuts are proposed:
library, medical funding, research funds, transit funds, etc. Nobody like to have less, but the party has to end sometime.
366. you can be another unemployed tea partier. Just think.
I want to hear about open houses today. I was going to go out but I’m not in the mood for the cat piss basements and Peg Bundy kitchens and figured I would wait a couple weeks after the credit.
Barb,
The Madison house was really a POS with a nice kitchen. The bedrooms with the stairways in them were well, bedrooms with stairways in them. The driveway was too short to park a car on it and the garage was tiny. The basement was finished on the cheap and the ceiling was at 5’6″ in way too many places. There was an entry level Viking stove, but the dishwasher front panel has dents in it. There is also a giant tree that resembles a broccoli stalk that is about 5 feet from the foundation. All in all, it’s well staged and will probably go for well over the 479K ask. And yes, the one full bathroom is a disaster and the powder room was poorly located. Happy home searching. BTW, we have something a brewing, sort of.
Barb, let us know if you are doing any open houses in Montclair. We’d love to meet you one day.
Stu,
I will def let you know, would love to meet up. Maybe in the next two weeks, my husband has a tight deadline that should be over with by then.
Can you reveal the new sitch, or is it too early?
Too early to reveal, but I heard a pretty funny joke that I’d like to share.
Q: If Nancy Pelosi and Obama were on a boat in the middle of the ocean and it started to sink, who would be saved?
A: America! – Fallon
Barbara – That would be fantastic. We would love to spend a day going to area open houses with you. I suspect it would be highly entertaining.
I predict a lot of riffin and “point and laugh” between the four of us (husband likes to get in on the act too, we deserve each other).
#342 Stu
Saw a bumper sticker today:
Obama
One
Big
Ass
Mistake
America
OT alert –
River Horse Summer Blonde. Brewed and bottled in Lambertville (right down the road from me).
Very nice stuff. Perfect for this beautiful day
Straight to Final Doom: Duvel cases on sale at Central Liquors in Flemington.
Alright. We are out of the deal. Essentially, the original offer from the Hoboken guy fell through last night. Of course the listing agent originally said there were 5 interested parties, which we thought was complete BS. Well the listing agent told us that if they we were willing to maintain our original offer, they would sell to us. We told them we wanted to see that house on Madison first and we would let them know immediately afterward. Well as you know the Madison house was an overpriced POS so we told the listing agent that we would maintain our original offer as she claimed there was additional interest now. Keep in mind that she said that she would deal it to us today if we told her early enough and that they would be fair to us and would sign immediately. Well we did make the fair offer today and she played our bid against someone willing to pay more. We are really not that disappointed as we would rather see what happens after the credit evaporates and the house would have worked, but it did not represent the greatest value to us. We also would prefer to be on the South Side where most of our friends are living on top of the Superfund site.
So the game continues. We have now made 4 offers on three houses. One was an extreme low-ball, two were on this house and the third was on a house where they found some sucker to rent it at an astronomical price. I think we’ll wait and continue to pay what amounts to $1300 rent on our multi.
“Onward and upward” is what our buying agent said.
Barb, i pay extra for pissy basements.
This is Montclair we’re talking here.
Al “The Thermostat” Gore says:
April 23, 2010 at 2:15 pm
Im going to stick with my original predictions of a 3rd quarter currency fireworks show which will accelerate into 2011.
Final end game is:
5. War and probably false flag. Likely nuclear.
Clot is still the funniest doom and gloomer on the blog, but Al is soaring up the charts. you’ve been on a roll lately, man.
as long as the sh!t doesn’t hit the fan for another 8 weeks, i’ll be thrilled
Cant wait until ‘Next Fall’.
I heard prices are going to come crashing down at that time.
Skeptic et al
Lets step back and put this in perspective. Lets assume that the 80’s,90’s bubble is an approximate model for what he might expect this time around timing wise.
The 2000’s bubble peaked in 07. We are only 2 full years off of peak so far. In the 90’s the major drop off of peak took about 3 years (88-91) and then there was a slow minor decline until 97.
If we follow the same pattern, then the primary drop is probably not done yet and after that period we can still expect another 3-5 years of flat or slowly declining prices.
If you bought in 1991, the end of the primary decline, you still would not have broken even until about 1999!!!
Regardless of how government intervention may or may not impact the market, you are losing perspective of the time scales involved. This will not be settled in 1,2, or 3 years. we are talking about a decade +.
wwfb: were you searching for this?
http://www.northcoastbrewing.com/beer-brotherThelonious.htm
def on sale at Whole Foods Middletown…not cheap…the big bottle was $7.99, but they have it in ample supply with a ton of other stuff…they even emptied out a refrig case to stock it with high-end beers…
Screw houses how about boats.
Check out this offer.
2005 30 foot cuddy cabin, 2 outboard Mercs (110 hours), radar (can track a flock of birds 5 miles away) and side ways looking sonar, outriggers etc.
30k offered to friend of mine who passed it on to me.
I was ready to go with check in hand only to find some snow bird from Florida picked it up off Ebay for 45k.
I almost had my ultimate SHTF here comes Bermuda transport. F#cking snowbirds.
Hyde, ??? peak was in June 2006 Case Shiller NY Metro.
If you bought in 1991, you were up up up every year. 1991 was the bottom. It wasnt a decade.
CS was up 15% from 1991 to 1998. FHFA data is not realistic – if thats what you are using.
If you are comparing this bubble to the eighties we would have started to recover already. Think about it. if 2006 is 1988 peak then 2009 was equivalent to the 1991 bottom. three years crash for both.
But i dont think this is the same as the early 1990s.
From 1991 through 1994, mortgage rates went down drastically, from 11% to 7%, which helped spur the recovery.
Also, they weren’t printing money and giving tax credits to buyers like they are doing now. Plus UE wasnt what it is now. UE wasnt 10%.
So its hard to use the 80s as a fwd indicator. Have to use a crystal ball instead.
hyde, even fhfa shows a 10% increase from 1991 to 1998. but i dont like that index. For example, fhFA nj shows a %14 decline from 2006 through today.
CS nj shows a 21% decline, which seems way more accurate when i compare to the real world comps. So i try to use cs whenever possible.
I dont see the problem.
Banking sector is doing fine.
In India.
MUMBAI, India (AP) — ICICI Bank Ltd., India’s largest private bank, said Saturday its quarterly profit rose by more than a third, missing expectations, as it continued to retrench its deposit base and cut back on risky consumer loans.
Net profit for the January to March quarter was 10.06 billion rupees ($224 million), up 35.2 percent from 7.44 billion rupees ($166 million) in the year ago period.
Thanks ChiFi…I’ll check it out next time at the Whole Paycheck.
330: When I see the students walking out, etc. to me it is an indictment of our education system. Maybe it’s a lot to expect, but simple economics should get them pretty far down the road to understanding the mess we’re in. So much for teaching critical thinking.
301: That’s why I had to come back during summer break in college to find the landscaping jobs we were chatting about.
Veto
I use inflation adjusted data as the indexes are not adjusted that accounts for most of the difference. I also averaged my peak across multiple indexes.
Veto
you have to consider inflation adjustments when looking back at the data sets. It is no different then trying to compare home prices between different time periods without adjusting for inflation. The nominal terms do not show the real picture.
a 500K home in 1994 nominal $ was not the same price as a 500k home in 1996 nominal $, anymore then $5 in 1994 nominal $ is the same as 1996 nominal $
The CS methodology or any other the other major indexes i am familiar with all DO NOT account for inflation and hence are nominal indexes.
Look at the linked charts:
http://www.scribd.com/full/30456750?access_key=key-sjkrz98wsy11oqnpuc6
If you only look at nominal data then you would say that home prices bottomed 3 years after peak then began a steady rise. Yet that is patently false, unless you are going to argue that $1 in 1930 has the same value as $1 in 2010.
Once you adjust the index for inflation you see that the major decline took place over a period of 3 years and the bottom wasnt reached until 1997.
My general point was the trend. Not any one set of numbers. Skeptic is calling this bubble over, bottomed after 3-4 years. The last decline lasted almost 9 years in total when you adjust for inflation and they didnt have the complete lack of lending standards that we now have to deal with. The government also did not interfere to any appreciable degree compared to today. Hence what we have seen so far is a “lite” version of the housing bubble deflation.
347 – Stu
“Alright. We are out of the deal.”
Man, you are going through your own little mini-hell with this. Hang in there.
You and Gator know that market. You will eventually find the perfect situation.
beer (346)-
Thanks for the Duvel tip. Will pick some up on the way back from scoring some more .223.
Listened to all the team parents yesterday whining about the budget shoot-downs. It went on and on, until everyone finally began whingeing about the loss in RE values due to schools cutting programs.
I just tossed in two simple questions:
1. What percentage of HS graduates in NJ leave the state to get higher education…and never come back?
2. What percentage of college graduates who are NJ residents can afford to buy- or rent- NJ housing at the time of their graduation?
The response to both questions was dead silence.
The proof of what a Ponzi the NJ economy is should be self-evident: we are frantically trying to maintain housing prices at a level at which there will be no ready, willing or able buyers. The whole meme of “stabilization” is simply a diversion, meant only to help investors who hold worthless mortgage paper.
My day ended with a coach telling me I should put my son in private school.
I asked the guy if it appeared as though I were wearing a suit made of money and walked away.
“Yesterday we first posted Jeremy Grantham’s latest letter which incidentally is a must read for everyone who still is stupid enough to think this market reflects anything remotely related to fundamentals, when instead all it is pricing in is the money printing Kommendant’s daily predisposition to continuing his dollar decimation via ZIRP and shadow QE. Just like all those who are buying Apple at these stratospheric prices are in essence selling life insurance on Steve Jobs (sorry, someone had to say it), all those buying into the market here are betting the Fed is apolitical when it comes to monetary policy decisions: a proposition so naive and ludicrous, it is not surprising that only the momos continue to buy into the rally, which is driven purely by Primary Dealers recycling money they lend to the treasury which in turn is repoed back by the Fed, so that the banks can buy 100x P/E risky stocks with the same money used to keep the treasury curve diagonal. This is nothing but Fed-sponsored monetary p0rnography at its NC-17 best. Of course, those who grasp it are few and far between, while the rest of the population is ignorant in its hopes that S&P 1,500 is just over the horizon, without a resultant crash back to 0 on the other side of the bubble. So for all those who are still confused (this means you Kommendant Bernanke) here is a 6 minute clip in which Grantham tells it just the way it is: there is nothing more to this rally that free money and banks’ last ditch attempt to lock in another year of record bonuses before it all goes to shit. And the implication – play with the big boys at your own peril. “Bubbles are when you should cash in your “career risk units” and do something brave to protect the investors. There is nothing more dangerous and damaging to the economy than a great asset bubble that breaks, and this is something that the Fed never seems to get. Under Greenspan’s incredible leadership he managed to give us the tech bubble, and by keeping interest rates at negative levels for three years drove up the housing bubble, and finally the risk bubble. And Bernanke has happily picked up the mantle, and seems totally unconcerned about creating yet another bubble. He has interest rates so low banks can’t possibly not make a fortune. Savers are being penalized, anyone who wants to buy cash faces a painful experience, and so we are all tempted into speculating, which is apparently what he wants and we’ve just had one of the great speculative rallies in history, second only to 1932-33.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jeremy-grantham-nothing-greenspan-legacys-latest-bubble-america-now-thorougly-expensive
Cindy,
I’m not really bothered by this game. I rather enjoy it. Perhaps it’s my Judaism. Every $10,000 in mortgage is like $50 per month for the next 30 years and another $1,000 down, not to mention the increased assessment and its impact on property taxes. I refuse to overspend in an environment where salaries are no longer growing (for the middle class that is). I’ve overspent once already. If I have to make 100 more bids to save $50,000 in price, it will be worth it. Plus, I totally understand and agree with what Hyde wrote up there at 361. Time is on my side financially in this situation. The only real hell is listening to Gator complain about our lack of overhead lighting and lack of space for entertaining that is bothersome.
stu (367)-
At the same time we start getting price discovery, the shooting will have begun.
Plume is right. The #1 feature of a house purchase should be ease of fortification.
For Grim, Underwater P0rn Enjoy! Well wishes to you and Dad.
I’m off to work to pay for more Obama bread&circuses…
sl
370 Damon – And I clicked through hoping to see a listing of upside down bagholders.
367 Stu
“If I have to make 100 more bids to save $50,000 in price, it will be worth it.”
Well there you go.
Fortification means nothing. It is easy to burn down a fortified home. What you should be asking yourself is where can I live where I will be safe? How can we solve some of the problems that face the country?
364. I moved here in 1999 pretty much on a whim. We were all set to move to South Shore of Boston. We staying in a decent rental in Montville. What I found was a very expensive place filled with morons. But it ‘is’ home for now.
What is interesting is how dumb most of the people here really are. It seems that the rest of the country really had our number. All of the joke have a ring of truth to them. My current area is filled with moderately success Orthodox Jews who have essentially handed themselves over to a rigorous cult that demands their entire devotion. On the bright side, you don’t worry too much about your neighbors breaking into your home or driving into you on a saturday.
“a 500K home in 1994 nominal $ was not the same price as a 500k home in 1996 nominal $”
Hyde, Inflation doesnt matter when you are looking for to purchase at the lowest price. homes are purchased in nominal terms.
Inflation has a huge effect on the market and prices in real life. you cant just remove it.
Its a hypothetical analytical excersize to meaure affordability in relative terms. Its not going to get you the lowest price in finding a home.
Think about it, If you bought a $500k home in 1991, the price of that home was up in nominal terms every year through 1998 by a total of about $50-$100K unrealized capital gain. That was real money – (Equity) – plus the principal equity that you payed down in mortgage. Those profits existed on your balance sheet as assets in real life – yet, your inflation adjusted charts would basically say that the profits didnt exist.
But the money was there to prove it!
So, yes prices indeed bottomed in 1991.
#375 Essex,
it’s also great to take the kids to the playgrounds on Saturday mornings.
spoke to a family member yesterday and they’re looking to cross the border into PA.
husband got a job in New Hope (wife is a tenured teacher in NJ). they started looking at how much better the real estate was, how there isn’t a significant difference in schools, and the big one – TAXES.
get out of NJ while you can, people!
NJGator and Stu, we’re also hunting in GR.
Curious why you’re working with an agent. Do you think that it’s hopeless to try and make the case that if you don’t have an agent you should split the commission with the listing agent? Or have you found someone who you can actually work with (in which case…I’d love to hear who it is… everyone in town seems to just read from the same script).
Did you see 64 Clinton Rd last year? Seemed like a good deal, but was concerned about those scary stairs in the winter…
In MTC/GR, it seems like the market at the top is dead and the prices on the junk at the bottom have collapsed (no more subprimes for people living on the radon heap?) but the houses in the middle have only dropped about 15%. That’s what everyone with a bit of cash from mom and dad, a bonus (they’re back!), or a down payment from a condo they’ve sold wants, I guess, not the awful starter, but the trade up.
Final doom for presidente
sx (373)-
By burning the mf’er to the ground.
“How can we solve some of the problems that face the country?”
sx (375)-
All organized religions are cults.
Smathers (379)-
A listing agent split the vig with the buyer? Bwahahahahahaha!!!
That’s a good one.
382. Agreed. And most Americans are stupid. I fear for the country’s future.
381. Eat the rich?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h45WnW0ASFY
From the Asbury Park Press:
Short sale basics
A home buyer looking for a bargain can try picking up a house via a short sale, but the process can require nerves of steel.
BY DAVID P. WILLIS • BUSINESS WRITER • APRIL 25, 2010
So you’re thinking about buying a house where the owners are financially underwater and unable to afford their mortgage, a transaction known as a short sale.
Make sure you have lots of patience.
http://www.app.com/article/20100425/BUSINESS/4250318/1003/Short-sale-basics
Veto
it’s a shadow profit. Your purchasing power has decreased online with you nominal profit. On top of that wages ate/were generally flat at the same time consumer debt expansion was underway
your bank account may have an extra 0 or 2 but you net worth is down or flat. In your example, the money you put into the home would have provided a better return then selling the home by simply averaging 3% annually in an investment. Your “profit” is illusionary in the big picture as your net purchasing power has still decreased
You can certainly do the math the way you are in nominal terms for your personal accounting but it’s short sighted and only representative in the short term.
If you love nominal terms so much you should be rooting for massive deflation so you can buy a home for $100 in brigadoon.
Interesting discussion on 91 as that was when we purchased our current home. Original ask was 220-225 range and closed @ 180. Question I have from following discussions over time is posters here generally say (correct)prices are or should be in the 04-05, sometimes 03 range, any guidance on how best to back calculate what that price may be? Town reassessed in 06 so current assessment is 435K. Thanks
#352 ChiFi
Stu was looking for Brother Thelonious. You’re right, $7.99 is a little pricey for the 750, but not outrageous. Besides, it stands up to the imported abbey ales at a much lower price, so its a relative bargain.
#357 Stu
If you’re ever in the Flemington area, Little Brothers usually has it cheap by the case. Call to confirm availability.
http://www.littlebroswine.com/vsku1385324.html
#363 Doom
You’re welcome. Spotted it the other day. This is for the six 4-packs of 330 ml bottles. Not sure what they’re getting for the case of 750 ml bottles.
Cheers!
366.Final Doom says:
April 25, 2010 at 8:29 am
“Yesterday we first posted Jeremy Grantham’s latest letter which incidentally is a must read for everyone who still is stupid enough to think this market reflects anything remotely related to fundamentals, when instead all it is pricing in is the money printing Kommendant’s daily predisposition to continuing his dollar decimation via ZIRP and shadow QE.
Sad but true. Main Street is in shambles but Wall Street is Business as Usual.
Veto,
I am really confused by your stance. Its inconsistent it you follow the logic and that is not like you.
If nominal is truly representative in housing then it should also be representative in terms of income or the stock market.
If we use your logic, then incomes have been increasing continuously since the 80’s. Do you really believe that purchasing power has been increasing? In adjusted terms income has been flat or slightly declining for a decade. Consumers have only maintained their lifestyles through massive debt expansion since they lost the income growth to support it.
You argument here is also inconsistent with you outlook for housing. If you are going to base your position off of the nominal NY CS data for the late 80’s/early 90’s then there was no appreciable RE bubble to speak of.
The nominal CS index dropped 13% from the peak in Sep 88 of 85.54 to a low of 74.27 in Mar 1992 and lasted 4 years before growth began again.
The Adj CS index dropped 30% from a peak of 149.54 in Nov 87 to a low of 103.32 in Mar 97 and lasted 13 years before growth began again
If we look back at the economic impact of that “bubble”, it was commensurate with a 30% drop not a 13% drop. A 13% drop is not a bubble by any stretch of the imagination. An overvaluation yes, a bubble no.
Do you believe that there was no RE bubble in the late 80’s? Because that is what your position here logically leads to.
Mob 388
04-05 prices for bottom? No way. 04-05 prices are almost at peak prices. a 30% drop off of the peak CS index would put us around 2002 prices
Hyde 392
Dont really see bottom here yet in Northern Burlington as house next to us with assessmwnt of 470 sold late 09 for 360- busness move to west coast and house 5 away with assessment of 385 sold two months ago for 365. First house is 10 years newer larger with garage and second house, raised ranch is 10 years older.
Guess what I’m really getting ready for is next years tax appeal since I haev not had act together to properly track comps (30 yr old SFD) in town. New school is spanking us from tax perspective and budget was recently defeated. Time to fight back a bit. Will continue to track local sales and will be in better position to appeal next year. No plans on moving 3-5 years maybe
For nations living the good life, the party’s over, IMF says
“But the translation is a bit ruder, something on the order of: “Suck it up. The party’s over.”
To keep the global economy on track, people in the United States and the rest of the developed world need to work longer before retiring, pay higher taxes and expect less from government. And the cheap imports lining the shelves of mega-chains such as Wal-Mart and Target? They need to be more expensive.
That’s the practical meaning of a series of policy papers and statements issued in recent days by IMF officials, who have a long history of stabilizing economies and solving global financial problems, as they plot a course to keep the world economy growing and reduce the risk of another “great recession.”
That message has been delivered subtly, woven into documents with titles such as “Resolving the Crisis Legacy and Meeting New Challenges to Financial Stability,” and justified by concepts such as “raising retirement age in line with life expectancy,” as IMF economic counselor Olivier Blanchard put it this week.
But fully deciphered, it means a pretty serious reworking of expectations in the developed world: changes in labor rules, product prices, currency values and even the social contract between governments and an aging citizenry.
“It is not that living standards will lower, but they will not increase as fast as they have been,” said Domenico Lombardi, a former IMF executive director. The ideas being discussed by world leaders “are coded words,” he said. “They don’t like words like ‘imposing higher taxes’ and ‘cutting spending.’ ”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/23/AR2010042305258.html?hpid%3Dtopnews&sub=AR
Heres another key point from the IMF article.
“How to do it? One way is for China — or Asian exporters, more generally — to let their currencies rise on world markets. The other way, which IMF economist Blanchard raised this week, would be to devalue the dollar, the euro and other developed-world currencies.
“The advanced economies as a whole may need to depreciate their currencies so as to increase their net exports,” Blanchard said.”
So they are telling you what they are going to do yet people hang on to their Federal Reserve Notes.
From the Asbury Park Press:
Readers’ best (and worst) ideas for boosting state’s image
APRIL 25, 2010
We asked readers to suggest a new state motto and offer ideas for improving New Jersey’s image. Here’s the best — and worst — of what they came up with.
(snip to the worst)
BAD SLOGANS
1. At least we aren’t Rhode Island
2. Big hair and fake tans
3. Yeah, that’s our smell!
4. Taxes and corruption: Perfect together
5. Pay to play
6. Come to NJ: We’ll rob you blind
7. We take your tired, hungry and poor — and keep them tired, hungry and poor
8. Tax and spend state
9. New Jersey: The sixth borough
10. Give me taxation or give me death
11. idk
12. We paved it for you
13. Overcrowded and obnoxious
14. You don’t have to be rich to live here, but it sure would help
15. Jersey — what exit?
16. Fughetaboutit
17. You gotta problem with that?
18. We’ve fallen and can’t get up
19. What’s in it for me?
20. No reasonable offer refused
21. Taxes! We’re No. 1 at something!
22. Bada Bing
23. You make it, we take it
24. Last one out turn off the lights
25. We don’t like you either
http://www.app.com/article/20100425/NEWS03/4250340/Readers-best-and-worst-ideas-for-boosting-state-s-image
unmod
397.chicagofinance says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
April 25, 2010 at 12:22 pm
Doom: I know I have said this opinion from time to time. Please do not assume that I will reflexively sh!t on zero value or bears.
Not that there isn’t value in Grantham’s opinion, but it always appears to me that Eurozone analysts, especially bankers, are out of step with the U.S. system. I cannot place the reason. It must be some mix of envy, umbrage from the former imperialists, inculcation of a socialist mentality…..I don’t know. They will take any chance at all to denigrate what happens on our shores. Fine, but ultimately, the correct opinion, but implemented at the wrong time is WRONG. The interview video, replete with the garish out-of-central casting bad-toothed transs-xual interviewer, is the typical spit on the nouveau-riche classes americans…..I find it boring although it contains grains of truth. Of course zero value will jump on it as if it came from here…..
http://www.sexy-vibrace.cz/sexshop/?od=250
366.Final Doom says:
April 25, 2010 at 8:29 am
“Yesterday we first posted Jeremy Grantham’s latest letter which incidentally is a must read for everyone who still is stupid enough to think this market reflects anything remotely related to fundamentals, when instead all it is pricing in is the money printing Kommendant’s daily predisposition to continuing his dollar decimation via ZIRP and shadow QE.
classes = classless
Hyde, you seem to be confusing yourself with the inflation adjusted data.
I dont have time to explain it but I can tell you this. This statement you made right here is 100% wrong.:
“your bank account may have an extra 0 or 2 but you net worth is down or flat.”
In addition to that, you seem to be confusing investment returns with asset prices, equity, affordability and purchasing power. They are all totally different things. 1991 was the bottom. If you bought a $500k home in 91, by 1998 you would have made $50k-100k in real money, which would have increased your net worth by that amount. I dont care how much the price of a candybar was or how much the avg pay was. That whole discussion is a huge tangent. It has nothing to do with buying a home at the lowest price.
Hyde [391],
You are correct. Real incomes were a net loser over the past decade. As was buy and hold(stock market.
fom nyp
The latest Powerball winner is a 29-year-old “tattooed father of three” named Chris Shaw (no, not my sports editor). His ticket was worth $258.5 million. Shaw has a 10-year-old son, a 7-year-old daughter and a 5-year-old daughter by two different women.
The Jets immediately named him a starting cornerback.
It must be some mix of envy, umbrage from the former imperialists, inculcation of a socialist mentality…..I don’t know. They will take any chance at all to denigrate what happens on our shores. Fine, but ultimately, the correct opinion, but implemented at the wrong time is WRONG. The interview video, replete with the garish out-of-central casting bad-toothed transs-xual interviewer, is the typical spit on the nouveau-riche classes americans
USA! USA! USA!
We don’t need no stinkin analysis or counter factual arguments, when ad-hominems and psycho-babble is enough to dismiss articles contrary to our opinions!
pa leeze
Every time some joe-thinks-he-be-a-thought-leader on here uses the term, “ad-hominem,” the only thing I think about is Ralph Cramden.
Real Estate will not recover until the median income buyer can afford the median priced home.
Given that PITI includes expenses like taxes and insurance which are increasing quickly, property values will continue to fall. This trend will be exacerbated by rising interest rates.
There is no reason to expect values to increase in the foreseeable future. I do accept that the market can normalize while prices continue to go down and sideways.
Veto
feel free to email me if your so inclined. I am more then happy to be corrected if I am wrong or mixing terms.
Better to learn from mistakes if that is the case
Kettle – Since you are around…do you mind a computer question?
When I got back from vacation, my computer was running much slower. I changed from the 3.0 Firefox to the 3.0.19 on 4/5. That is the only change I can think of. Any ideas?
I have AVG – nothing in the virus locker.
I have to wait for videos to download. It will play 20 seconds then stop (load) play a while longer – you get the idea. Sites are slower to load as well.
Uhg! Everything was great with 3.0 Firefox. Now – bummer.
30 year realtor [405],
Bingo. Summed up in a nutshell. It’s as simple as that and as Final Doom said earlier, all the noise and bullsh1t about stabilization is just that: bullsh1t.
Kettle @ 407 – Never mind….
When you have wasted as much of a weekend as I have trying to solve a problem – you give up and call the computer guy.
It was a nice thought – solving it myself and all – but alas, not doable.
al [395]
We enjoyed totally unjustified (by what we produced) increase in consumption here for the last 25 years thanks to globalization and people willing to work for a buck a day overseas. Consumption should be rolled back to what is the sustainable level – the only 2 ways are depreciate the USD/EUR – appreciate RMB, etc., or build the tall protectionist barrier. First case keeps (at least, attempts to keep) globalization in place and lets us export more; the second one builds the import-substituting capacity. In both cases buying a TV or a pair of shoes will require more hours of worker’s wages than today. I like the second case better since I am still missing U.S.-made Dexter shoes, the only ones in which my feet won’t burn…
Cindy
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Student walkouts indictment of educ. System?
Disagree with that….school has always been a bunch of suck, any chance to miss class under the auspices of activism makes perfect sense.
Veto,
You have not addressed the changing value of the $ over time. the value of a $ constantly fluctuates (i.e. inflates) hence to compare $ values across a time series in apples-to-apples terms you must account for inflation.
Yes, if bought my house for 200K in 2000 and sold it for 230K in 2009, i made a profit. However 200K in 2000 is equivalent to 240K in 2009 per CPI adjustment.
In this transaction i would have lost purchasing power even though i made money because each dollar i made was worth less then the dollars i had in 2000.
1$ in 2000 is not equal to $1 in 2009. Homes were decreasing in value in any measures other then $. The value of a house in gold, oil, corn, or pork bellies was decreasing.
would you rather pay 200K in 1908 $ for a home or 200K in 2009 dollars for a home if you were purchasing today???
I ask this as a constructive debate.
411 Kettle –
Thanks for the info. I actually updated to Firefox 3.6 and things look pretty good.
The country may be circling the bowl, but we make the best damn cartoons in the modern world….just saw that 3D Dragon film — amazing!
Essex, most of those are made in India :<
Another week down. Another week closer to oblivion.
Just stopped my MIL from buying a pumped-up CD in a FL bank rated one star (lowest rating) at bankrate.com. Bank has a massive bad loan problem (think that’s RE-related, anyone?) and inadequate loan loss reserves. No wonder they’re offering over-market rates on CDs. Sounds like this dog is a surefire BFF candidate.
MIL informs that all the geezers in her development- and this is no small place- were queued up last week, waiting to buy.
418.
Doom,
My own mother still believe bank CD’s are a good investment and there is no talking her out of it. The problem with that generation is they get their news largely from mainstream media and local newspapers.
They bought into a new NJ adult community home at peak for 400k cash. I told them it was a bad idea to move into an unestablished community and to rent instead. Low and behold 20 houses in the community remain unsold 3 years later.
At least I got them to stop spending hundreds of dollars on international phone calls to relatives by using skype.
Babylon will burn. Bring on another week of fraud and geological disasters.
CDs have FDIC insurance up to $250,000
Veto/ Hyde,
For Case-Shiller, aren’t those “same-house” sales? So wouldn’t inflation already be baked into that index?
“You have not addressed the changing value of the $ over time.”
Ket, i dont need to address it because its not significant at all to the point.
if you want the lowest price you have to buy when nominal price is lowest.
if 2009 was the nominal bottom, and 2017 is the inflation adjusted bottom, you would have been best served buying in 2009, because by 2017, you would have already had equity (simply from paying the princ portion of the mortgage for 8 years) plus the unrealized capital gain on your personal balance sheet as a result of the home’s nominal price increase. The unrealized cap gain and the equity are assets that increases your net worth.
revelation, yes its same-home sales index. and its nominal index.
if the home was sold in 1980 for $200k and then in 2006 for $300K, some of that $100k increase was inflation.
booyah shakka
126 Comrade: Re expatriates giving up US citizenship.
Even State Media is reporting it now.
“More American Expatriates Give Up Citizenship
WASHINGTON — Amid mounting frustration over taxation and banking problems, small but growing numbers of overseas Americans are taking the weighty step of renouncing their citizenship.
“What we have seen is a substantial change in mentality among the overseas community in the past two years,” said Jackie Bugnion, director of American Citizens Abroad, an advocacy group based in Geneva. “Before, no one would dare mention to other Americans that they were even thinking of renouncing their U.S. nationality. Now, it is an openly discussed issue.” ”
Any idea what has changed in two years? I can’t figure out why..
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/26/us/26expat.html
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Personally I think Arizona’s new law is a great law. We all recognize that we need to allow a better path to citizenship, but since the state can’t grant the citizenship the only way we can protect ourselves is to enforce harsher penalties against all illegal immigrants. We can’t sort the good and the bad until the Federal government acts. Instead of protesting our actions people should be petitioning their congressmen to reform immigration laws. We just want to keep the criminals and drug dealers out of our state.
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