From AOL News:
Would You Want to Live in a Serial Killer’s House?
If you’re in the market for an “excellent handyman’s special,” you might want to check out a two-story ranch-style house that’s for sale in East Meadow, N.Y. What the property listing doesn’t mention, though, is that Joel Rifkin, one of the area’s most notorious serial killers, used to live here.
Nor does it have to, under New York’s disclosure laws, despite the fact that prospective buyers might think twice upon learning of the home’s sinister past.
“There is no requirement under New York law to notify a purchaser or a respective purchaser of a murder, death or unpleasant act that occurred in the home,” notes Adam Leitman Bailey, an attorney who practices real estate law in New York and New Jersey. “New York is a caveat emptor [buyer beware] state.”
…
According to TruTV’s Crime Library, while some of Rifkin’s victims were killed in his vehicle, others were slain and dismembered inside his East Meadow home.
…
Coincidentally, the “Amityville Horror” house is also for sale in New York, for $1.15 million. The home is the site of a brutal 1974 mass murder, in which Ronald DeFeo Jr., then 23, murdered six of his family members. The crime and subsequent alleged supernatural incidents were detailed in several books and movies.Previous owners of the Amityville home had the address changed and made modifications to the exterior in an attempt to make it difficult to identify. Nonetheless, the house continues to attract tourists.
…
Not everyone, however, is completely against the idea.“I would definitely buy the house. It’s a part of true crime history, much like the Lizzie Borden Bed & Breakfast,” Jessika Gein told AOL News. Gein and her husband, Eric, own Serial Killers Ink, a leading “murderabilia” outlet.
The state of NJ is on a killing spree against its inhabitants.
Doom and Chifi,
RE: the gold article posted late yesterday.
I understand the premise of the article but it seems to me that it assumes the value of a dollar [or fill in whatever paper currency you like here] is static.
Correct me if I’m wrong, it isn’t so much the intrinsic value of gold rising as much as the devaluation of paper currency from printing, printing and more printing.
Did I miss something?
sl
sl (22)-
You got it. The guy that wrote the article is clueless.
That’s right sl. All currencies will fall vs gold. Gold is a store of labor and should be used as a competing currency when fiat paper is being abused.
So who is buying? I’ll sell at spot.
grim (5)-
Can I bring my tungsten detector? :)
grim, 5
Can I pay you in pierogi and galumpkes? :)
sl
sl <— cannot type as fast as the Doom!
http://pragcap.com/bernankes-great-monetarist-gaffe
I found this article @ TPC interesting. But since I have admitted my thinking is flawed – on a good day – it may not matter.
His statement that QE in the US has done nothing because there is no demand for loans seems true. When excess reserves just sit on balance sheets and do nothing – it is not inflationary.
He refers to Zandi and others who say we should go out and get that home loan while the rates are low yet the rates have been low for years and years in Japan – it is called –
“Bernanke’s Great Monetarist Gaffe”
I have noticed houses going Under Contract and then back on market. I assume financing is the issue.
Cindy (9)-
You’re right. Simply printing money doesn’t create inflation. There must be sufficient extension of credit to spark the beast.
So far, banks don’t want to lend, and borrowers have no taste for borrowing. Classic deflationary/debt destruction crisis.
Markets pop because the Chinese say they aren’t going to dump their Euro holdings. Which means that the Chinese are either liars or stupid.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dean-baker/the-cult-of-subprime-cent_b_591511.html
Dean Baker – “The Cult of Subprime Central Bankers”
“The other reason why it is important to recognize the responsibility of the central bankers and the IMF for this disaster is so that we don’t continue to take advice from people who apparently don’t have a clue.”
tbw 10 a lot of that in my neck of the woods also. I am assuming the same.
I disagree with the article’s premise that the bond vigilantes will never come to the US.
Methinks they’re a few months away from hopping the pond (once Europe is left a smoldering ruins).
mike (14)-
Bet a lot of those UC houses that fail did so because the appraisals came up short.
I see several of those a week. Even if the buyer is one of the dwindling numbers of greater fools, his lender will prevent him from exercising his idiocy.
11- Clot
Thank you – Words like “you are right” just now – about ANYTHING really – mean a lot to me.
HEHEHE 12 larger trading partner than USA.
(exports naturally)Same reasons they didn’t throw us under the bus. They have tons of Euros might as well keep them afloat.
Cindy (17)-
All you have left to do is embrace the oblivion.
The Chinese aren’t thinking about short-term moves in the USD or EUR.
They are planning on owning our asses 50 years from now. Hence, their strategy is focused on a long-term disintegration of our economy…that we should be able to wreak on ourselves.
Mike,
Yeah, but all told its not a market event. The Euro is going to implode whether the Chinese dumps them or not.
Clot 16 thanks for inside info, I do not think that applies in my town. Prices are 30 -50 % lower. How about one day of the first 2 weeks in July for your hinterland visit. On vacation, will be hanging here poolside.
Give an idiot a million dollars, and he will blow it himself…no outside help needed.
Clot,
This summer/fall the bond vigilantes are going to murder the US. Once it becomes apparent even to the stupidest of the sheeple that the “recovery” isn’t going anywhere and the morons and MrO start talking about another stimulus I look for squeeze to begin.
HEHEHE 21 I tend to agree, but you never know what they will cook up to save them.
“Correct me if I’m wrong, it isn’t so much the intrinsic value of gold rising as much as the devaluation of paper currency from printing, printing and more printing.”
SL,
Bingo. The world is losing faith in paper pushers. Otherwise, Gold would not be at/near all time highs in every single currency. It’s a confidence play. The world markets don’t seem to agree that papering over paper will solve the underlying fundamental problems.
He 24 That will be fun.
mike (22)-
Sounds like a plan. Conveniently have a tournament in the Poconos and in Hackettstown this Summer. Might be a good time to also start learning about the Sussex market.
Although it seems as if the Sussex market can be easily mastered as long as I grasp the concept of terminal velocity.
“So who is buying? I’ll sell at spot.”
JB,
Why buy at spot? They’ll be buying at 2,500.
By the way, coins or physical bullion?
“His statement that QE in the US has done nothing because there is no demand for loans seems true.”
Cindy,
You asked this simple question, neons ago; Got Demand?
Chinese are betting euro will not dissolve but how long before it will reach its previous high.They did made tons of money on their dollar holdings bought at the low. They made 22% from the high value of the euro against the dollar plus yield on treasuries.15% on the low of dxy.I say they are very smart.
“Which means that the Chinese are either liars or stupid.”
He,
Liars and smart. They learned it from the best, GS.
Clot terminal is not the word. Still have our share of fools, Bi level just sold for 300k on main road, that is like 10% under peak for that house. What an a**hole. Could have gotten similar house in an interior block like 100k cheaper. Hope you can make the trip ,Ket would most likely come too. More the merrier. Should be a blast.
“Mugabe is the economic mentor of Ben Bernanke.”
Marc Faber
Doom [15],
After they pummel the Euro, it’s off to the UK, then to Japan before the big battle. Party on.
MR W. 35 Got war. Our only way out.
Doom, you surprised Ching was left off the roster? I didn’t think it was a big deal … way too many people making an issue about it.
dont know that the US will have the defense to get out of the first group, although the schedule is kind of favorable.
Not surprised about Ching. Old, slow and injury-prone…not exactly what you want to see in an international player. Both Gomez and Buddle are goal-scoring monsters that any competent coach would take 10 times out of 10.
However, I’d take Ching before the washed-up Beasley. That guy is everything that’s wrong with US soccer.
Our defense is putrid. They will be shredded by every team in our group, and we’ll finish last. Three losses and done.
After the WC, Beasley will go back to Scotland and resume sucking.
Stacks of Krugs, I swim through them like Scrooge McDuck.
And the Chinese don’t want euro fail.
US can beat, but not knockout Europe, the victory is only temporary. China will support Euro when needed.
The US have to keep fighting, or watch Euro recover.
grim (40)-
Sounds like the first line of a rap song.
Recent grim sighting:
http://tinyurl.com/yfxtgcv
30 Wanta
I know we discussed demand – and agreed – eons ago. I just, for the life of me, can’t figure out why the yahoos who went down this road – which has proven to be ineffective – are still in decision-making positions.
Monetary policy has proven to be a farce. Investor confidence is being shattered because of the moral hazard and meddling. The system is weaker today because natural selection was never allowed to take place.
Those in charge don’t appear to have a clue and have not provided a solution that works.
The gutting of the financial overhaul was a bit of an eye-opener for me.
Monetary policy doesn’t work in a balance sheet recession. How many other ways can this be shouted from the roof tops.
Viable leadership is killing us.
The LACK of viable leadership is killing us.
The NYT reports on how the euro crisis may end up impeding the U.S. recovery. By lowering growth in Europe and reducing the value of the euro, it will reduce U.S. exports which were expected to be an important engine of growth for the U.S. economy. The article included a quote from Joseph Stiglitz making this point. However, it later presents a comment from James Bullard, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis that directly contradicts Stiglitiz and appears to defy basic national income accounting, claiming that the United States:
“must ‘directly address’ its fiscal problems if it is to retain credibility with credit markets. After all, along with the countries of the euro zone, Britain and the United States are running outsize deficits, compounded by their spending to stimulate the economy.”
As a matter of accounting identity, net national saving is equal to the trade surplus. Since the United States is running a large trade deficit, because of the over-valued dollar, it must have negative net national saving. This means either very large budget deficits and/or very low private saving. If the government were to reduce its deficit, then either private saving would have to fall, which would mean even further declines in consumer saving from already low levels, or we would see a fall in output and a rise in the unemployment rate.
It is not clear whether Mr. Bullard advocates more consumer indebtedness or higher unemployment, but it would have been useful to point out the logical implications of the policy that he was advocating.
Dean Baker
…smoke me some chronic,
get me some physical;
mess with my crew,
next stop hospital.
rollin on the street with my gin and juice
countin my Krugs while I’m droppin a deuce
I’m a stone cold killa, look out Bergabe
drop you in your tracks like I’m Bob Mugabe.
“Monetary policy doesn’t work in a balance sheet recession.”
Cindy,
Exactly.
The only options are; default, restructure or implode. Or, some combination thereof. Printing more debt will only create much larger problems down the road.
Cindy
No responsible and capable leader would be viable. Any such leader would institute austerity at all levels. Everyone wants a solution, just one that doesnt stop the government cheese from flowing into their pocket. Mess with their government cheese and they will scream bloody murder and how they have a RIGHT to that money.
No competent leader would be elected either as the majority of people get their info from the MSM and the corporations who own the MSM would stand to lose out big time by such an individual.
Remember, per the supreme court speech = money and corporations are legally “people”. In the current system corporations will always have a louder voice then joe sixpack.
With the deficit hawks in high gear, people are prepared to say anything in pursuit of the goal of deficit reduction. Remarkably, the NYT is apparently willing to print almost anything. Today the deficit cutting crusade is led by hedge fund manager David Einhorn. In a lengthy column Einhorn bemoans the fact that at least some people in the Obama administration are more concerned about getting people back to work than reducing the deficit.
http://www.cepr.net/index.php/beat-the-press/
Wantan
How is restructuring significantly different then a default?
blowin up that balance sheet
blow, muthafcuka, blow
stackin that cheese, I’m the real deal
no fugazy, candy-ass ho
blow, muthafcuka, blow
git me my gat
and a bag of ducats
gonna rat a tat tat
blow, muthafcuka, blow
“at least some people in the Obama administration are more concerned about getting people back to work than reducing the deficit.”
The problem with Baker’s thinking is that he really doesn’t care where the people are employed, so long as they are employed. We could employ 10% of the population to write poetry for all he cares. Baker is smart, but he still falls victim to the same premise as every other Keynesian. Essentially, the Keynesian framework assumes that everyone’s name is Jack, we all have the same job, we all consume 1 product. And one of the Jacks is the government, yet no one knows it.
They already no its going to collapse. Ben needs to print up another half tril or this ship sinks within 18 months. They will cook up a war to distract the people.
Get me my foodstamps mothaf_cka
I aint goin to mop yo sh_t
Get me a bucket of chicken
So I don’t have to kidnap some rich b_tch
Get me some section 8 cribs
So I don’t have kick you in the ribs
Very Cool aerial acrobatics going on in NY Harbor by the Statue of Liberty this AM by a stunt pilot and film crew. Might be related to the RedBull Air Race next month.
http://www.redbullairrace.com/cs/Satellite/en_air/Event/New-York,-USA-021242804147336
The gold articles from Arends are a set of three. I will pull the other….I guess the last will come tomorrow…
‘Top kill’ halts flow of oil and gas from Deepwater Horizon: USCG
http://seekingalpha.com/article/207106-in-a-word-the-problem-is-debt?source=email – Tim Iacono – The Mess that Greenspan Made @ Seeking Alpha today:
“In a word, the Problem is Debt”
“The problem is too much debt and the solution involves pain.
It’s time we got used to that idea.”
Chicago (58):
Not so sure, they may have stopped the one of the leaks but not both. Cannot tell which one got fixed.
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/homepage/STAGING/local_assets/bp_homepage/html/rov_stream.html
http://pragcap.com/a-fearsome-herd-of-tyrannosaurus-rex-approaches
BC @ 35
Here is the TPC answer as to why the bond vigilantes won’t hit us here…
Al Gore (55) –
Wow, dude, you are like a poet or something. Do you have a newsletter that I can subscribe to?
All posts today should be in the form of a rap.
…or, Shakespearean blank verse.
Knaves.
re: #59 Cindy it is already underway.
Our government is going to follow the G7 who all are now talking about an expected ‘Age of Austerity’. We are going to prescribe Austerity, but since we are a net debtor that depends on foreign capital inflows to finance government is like trying to cure heroin addiction with blood letting.
Ill-conceived conservative economic solutions to economic problems that resulted from ill-conceived liberal Keynesians.
Just because the Fed and Congress should not have gotten the US patient addicted to the debt drug in the first place does not mean that letting his blood out is going to make him well.
Since the euro sovereign debt crisis began the price of oil in dollars has fallen 20%. The latest Federal Reserve grumbings about deflation are as reliable an indicator that the next Federal Reserve policy maneuver to depreciate the dollar.
The continued strengthening Dollar vs Euro cannot be allowed. The Federal Reserve needs high energy import prices as the key inflation signal to maintain asset prices like housing and a weak dollar for an export led recovery.
The strengthening Dollar vs Euro will not be allowed to stand, irrespective of oil demand. It will be underway in a month…fasten your seat belts….
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2987307/First-shocking-pictures-of-smoking-toddler-Ardi-Rizal.html
two year old who smokes two packs a day!!!! Even a video of two year old smoking, now that is crazy.
jj, 67
blatant child abuse.
(have you seen the afghanistan vids of parents blowing opium smoke at their toddlers to quiet them?)
more abuse.
sl
Creditism, huh?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7769126/US-money-supply-plunges-at-1930s-pace-as-Obama-eyes-fresh-stimulus.html
re #68 – still -Hooking your kids on Heroin is nothing new. The opium poppy has been cultivated and smoked there for for at least 5,000 years.
Juice 70
…and I get vexed by my kid demanding M&Ms. Go figure.
Nauseating.
sl
jj says:
May 27, 2010 at 9:55 am
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2987307/First-shocking-pictures-of-smoking-toddler-Ardi-Rizal.html
two year old who smokes two packs a day!!!! Even a video of two year old smoking, now that is crazy.
that video is fake. cigarette looks like it was cgi’d in
re #69 – Relo – Markets in the U.S. shall henceforth be driven by the ebb and flow of monetary and fiscal policy that is determined by the election cycle.
“Printing more debt will only create much larger problems”
Weimar anyone?
re: 371 Still for the mother I am sure it starts off with good intentions as always.
However because there is no modern medication in those rural villages, they use Opium as a cure all for everything. Opium contains morphine, which initially acts as a painkiller, and it also contains codeine which suppresses coughs — something which almost everyone in the rural villages and valleys in those countries especially children, suffer from due to the harsh winters.
Tax News of the Day:
The administration says it wants to help small businesses.
Just don’t try to fund your start up with assets from your retirement accounts.
“DOL Expects to Issue Guidance on Facts
That Could Make ROBS Prohibited Plans
PHILADELPHIA—The Labor Department is developing guidance on rollovers as business start-ups (ROBS) that describes facts and circumstances in which ROBS would be prohibited transactions, a department official said May 25.
A ROBS is a retirement plan that accepts a rollover and permits investment in employer stock, but Labor Department and Internal Revenue Service officials have said a substantial number of ROBS fail to comply with the agencies’ rules for tax-deferred retirement plans. . . . ”
Their argument is that a small businessman could fund a startup from retirement funds, then take money out of the business ahead of retirement, thus de-funding the retirement accounts because the value of their stock is diminished.
That’s DOL’s concern. IRS is also concerned about ROBS because (and I am not making this up) the people using this mechanism are starting up businesses with money that hasn’t been taxed.
Horrors!
FWIW, I can see DOL’s point. Further, from a policy standpoint, the USG doesn’t want these people eviserating their retirement funds now because they will be lapping up SS later. By forcing them to preserve their retirement balances, they can means-test them and deny SS benefits.
And yes, Means Testing is coming. In fact, it has been here for decades, but it will be vastly enlarged to deal with the coming economic crisis, especially when entitlements make up 90% of all federal outlays (right now, entitlements make up 60% of federal outlays, so if you wonder where the government is going to look for answers, there it is).
76: Nom,
Coincidently,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=aJgR6jQ5ikWk
“Bingo. The world is losing faith in paper pushers. Otherwise, Gold would not be at/near all time highs in every single currency.”
That is not good enough. For someone to make a claim that Gold is a “sound/safe” investment, it has to, at a minimum, beat US treasuries, let alone something like S&P 500.
The “world” had faith in pets.com a decade ago, and had immense faith in sub-prime MBS just a few years ago.
relo #77
One can even finance a house with that go further and buy a home tax free with 401k money and then sell it and pay 20% tax [or avoid even that through some tricks].
Personal 401k -> Company 401k -> Company Shares -> Company buys a “building/home” -> Owner lives there -> Sells it at large loss to owner -> Owner keeps house for 2 years -> Sells to someone else at market price -> zero tax on house profits.
S
you boys are all gold bugs these days :P
another little currency: Coke-a-Cola.
don’t believe me, travel to Africa, and when the military pulls your cab over at gun point and tell you to get out…comes in real handy..
SAS
oh yeah.. goes for Mexico too
SAS
[79] sas3
Already considered that. The problem is that the owner can’t also be the tenant.
IRS will collapse and recharacterize that transaction in a NY minute.
[78] sas3
BTW, I am looking at that (or a similar method involving a self-directed IRA) as a funding mechanism for the Nompound.
I think it is viable because of the diffuse ownership.
New Jersey really should consider doing this, as it would be good for retailers and would prevent runs on stores.
“Louisiana Sets Annual Tax Holiday
On Hurricane Preparedness Supplies
HOUSTON—Hurricane preparedness goods and supplies will be exempt from state sales tax on May 29 and May 30, the Louisiana Department of Revenue announced in a May 25 revenue information bulletin.
Louisiana Revised Statutes Annotated 47:305.58 provides for an annual sales tax holiday on sales of hurricane supplies made on the last Saturday and Sunday of each May.
Tax-free purchases are authorized on the first $1,500 of the sales price of each portable self-powered light source; portable self-powered radio, two-way radio, or weather band radio; tarpaulin or other flexible weatherproof sheeting; small batteries; portable generators; and nonelectric food storage coolers, among other supplies. . . .”
It would also relieve stress on first responders and communications systems, and would better permit people to ride out storms.
Now if we could only get ammo added to the list ;-)
79: SAS3
It may be gotten away with, but I’d wager that’s going to ne shot down in flames if a certain department happens upon it.
Company buys a “building/home” -> Owner lives there -> Sells it at large loss to owner
Hummm,
So one might roll over cash into a luxury yacht and start a custom cruise vacation company. If it makes money, great. If not, disband the company and buy the boat from him/herself and just enjoy it for personal use.
This has potential.
Spoke to the wife last night about applying for permanent resident status in Canada. She’s on board.
But there is also traffic the other way, and this actually is helping to inform my decision.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37357190/
In fact, I submit that it is better to be a Canadian entrepreneur in the US than a US entrepreneur.
The rub would be, of course, applying for a US visa as a former US citizen. One can expect pretty shabby treatment from State in that event, but the threat of pulling your investment out of the US should get them to smarten up right quick.
[87] shore
Gotta tell you. That’s a move for professionals only.
Don’t try this at home. Not without a tax attorney spotting you.
And if the IRS ever does happen upon it, they will blow through that like a samurai sword through tatami.
I’d anyone else getting DNS errors when connecting to NJRER?
Grim, what is the blog’s ip address?
Shore, periodically, Grim goes offline. I get this too. Don’t know why. Usually, it only lasts a few minutes.
“Dont try this at home. Not without a tax attorney spotting you”
I rely heavily on competent legal counsel at every stage of my business activities.
People would do well to remember that it costs less to consult an attorney before acting than to pay one to pull their chestnuts out of the fire after doing something they shouldn’t have.
[91] shore
Fortunately for them, I can handle it on either end. But you’re right, and anyone old enough to remember Fram Filters remembers their pitchline: You can pay me now, or you can pay me later.
“travel to Africa, and when the military pulls your cab over at gun point and tell you to get out comes in real handy.”
Indeed! It gives the miscreants something to toast with as they stand over your lifeless body and rifle through your pockets for cash and pull the rings off your fingers.
Time to break out the Zimmer frames.
Nom,
It always amazes me how people will spend 10s of thousands of dollars, hundreds of thousends, ecen, doing something ad will fail to consult with an attorner — who in many cases can point out landmines in a half hour or hour — just because the attorney charges $500 or $600 per hour.
Fools abound.
“Dont try this at home. Not without a tax attorney spotting you”
Does this need a Wesley Snipes qualifier.
Ket,
Who needs microwave crowd control.
Police ‘cool’ Belfast trouble with ice-cream van music
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/northern_ireland/10170966.stm
New Jersey Authority Pays $1 Million for Jets, Giants Tickets
Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A
By Dunstan McNichol and Adam Satariano
May 27 (Bloomberg) — The New Jersey Sports & Exposition Authority spent almost $1 million to lock up season tickets for the New York Giants and Jets, seats that will be used by VIPs including elected officials.
The state agency secured 142 season passes in the National Football League teams’ new $1.6 billion stadium in East Rutherford by paying an $854,000 one-time license fee and $221,600 for actual tickets to 20 games set for 2010. The agency also paid $275,000 for a luxury suite. The costs were provided in response to a public records request by Bloomberg News.
Business partners, politicians and others associated with the agency will be able to buy the tickets from the authority, which plans a service fee to recoup costs, said John Samerjan, a spokesman. The agency, which neither owns nor manages the new stadium and is supposed to operate without taxpayer help, is asking lawmakers for $32.8 million to make up a funding shortfall at a time when state social services are being cut.
“These are the kind of shenanigans we need to guard against,” said Senate Majority Leader Barbara Buono, a Middlesex County Democrat who is seeking an audit of the authority’s budget. “It seems not only an unnecessary and unwise expense, but wholly inappropriate given the amount of money they are seeking from the state.”
Dennis Robinson, the authority’s president, said the purchases were made so the agency could keep tickets it controlled in the old stadium.
“In 2008 the Authority was forced to make a decision”
Glad to see you Jersey Folks have money to burn!!!
Grab a bucket of popcorn, this could be a great show.
Lehman Brothers Holdings is suing JP Morgan Chase to recover tens of billions of dollars in “lost value”.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/10169981.stm
[96] fabius
Yes it does.
And I disclaim ever advising Wesley Snipes on his weak-ass scheme.
[98] maximus
“Police ‘cool’ Belfast trouble with ice-cream van music”
That’s freaking ingenious. And even after the hoods learn that the police are doing this, it is still a deterrent—are there kiddies out there or not?
just because the attorney charges $500 or $600 per hour.
Or maybe make the law simple enough to understand so that we don’t have to employ a person who charges $500/hr to interpret a law.
[103] jamal
“Or maybe make the law simple enough to understand so that we don’t have to employ a person who charges $500/hr to interpret a law.”
S0cialist!
For the brew crew. ROBS friendly?
http://travel.nytimes.com/2010/05/30/travel/30headsup.html?hpw
[105] relo
“Beer has become the new wine.”
I remember being at a friends house in Brigadoon for an Xmas party, and he and a friend were carrying on about various brews in just that fashion.
My head was literally spinning. I can talk wine, but beer? In the words of Schultz, “I know nothing. Nothing.”
Circle jerk.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQlBdU4m2T9A&pos=5
relo (106)-
More like deck chairs/Titanic.
Think my 20-40 years in the wilderness call is nuts? This guy doesn’t:
“Anyone who believes that housing is on the rebound, and that now is the time to buy, should take a very hard look at the numbers I dredged up for my spring lecture and luncheon tour.
There are 140 million personal residences in the US. Today, there are 26 million homes either directly or indirectly for sale. According to a survey by Zillow.com, a real estate appraisal website, 20 million homeowners plan to sell on any improvement in prices. Add to that 4 million existing homes now on the market, 1 million new homes flogged by companies like Lennar (LEN) and Pulte Homes (PHM), and 1 million bank owned properties. Another 8 million mortgage owners are late on their payments and are on the verge of foreclosure, bringing the total overhang to 34 million homes.
Now, let’s look at the buy side. There are 35 million who are underwater on their mortgages and aren’t buying homes anytime soon, nor are the 35 million unemployed and underemployed. That knocks out 50% of the potential buyers.
Here is where it gets really interesting. There are 80 million baby boomers retiring at the rate of 10,000 a day. Assuming that they downsize over time from an average 2,500 sq ft. home to a 1,000 sq. ft. condo, and eventually to a 100 sq. ft. assisted living facility, the total shrinkage in demand is 4.3 billion sq.ft. per year, or 1.7 million average sized homes. That amounts to a shrinkage of aggregate demand for a city the size of San Francisco, every year. You can argue that the following Gen-Xer’s are going to take up the slack, but there are only 65 million of them with a much lower standard of living than their parents.
Throw in the disappearance of state and federal first time buyer tax credit. You can count on a jump in long term capital gains taxes and state and local property taxes, further diminishing property’s appeal. If you are looking for a final stick to break the camel’s back, how about eliminating, or substantially reducing the home mortgage interest deduction?
Add it all up, and there is a massive structural imbalance in residential real estate that will take at least a decade or more to unwind. We could be looking at a replay of the same 26 year period from 1929 to 1955 when prices remained flat, and we are only 3 years into it! A second down leg in the real estate market seems a no brainer to me, as is the secondary banking crisis that follows. Perhaps that’s why hedge funds have been big sellers of the homebuilder’s ETF (XHB).
What’s a poor homeowner to do? Don’t ask me. I sold everything in 2005 when my research threw up these numbers, and have been happily renting ever since. And if the toilet blocks up, I just call the landlord.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hard-truth-about-residential-real-estate
“Now, let’s look at the buy side. There are 35 million who are underwater on their mortgages and aren’t buying homes anytime soon, nor are the 35 million unemployed and underemployed. That knocks out 50% of the potential buyers.”
Have to point out this point is a bit illogical because certainly there’s a sizable overlap in these two groups.
@67 – that kid is the modern day Augustus Gloop.
Clot new tall grass house 4 bd colonial. Guy next store to it trying to sell(that’s going to kill him). Nice 2-3 ac lots great loc overall. Guess this one got in over his/her head no sign just sitting there with 1-2 ft of grass. No worries RE on the rebound.
“Or maybe make the law simple enough to understand so that we dont have to employ a person who charges $500/hr to interpret a law.
And take food out of Little Shore’s mouth? Fuggedaboudit.
I don’t know what will happen next year or in ten years but realtor said houses in Montclair are selling like hotcakes and dozens of them went into contract this month for asking. It does not compute
Doom-
Part of the imbalance is because prices are too high. Flush the debris and start over. Affordable housing changes the whole picture. I never understood why saving housing has to involve over charging a whole new round of buyers. Consumers that spent too much on housing have no money to help fuel the rest of the economy.
And take food out of Little Shore’s mouth? Fuggedaboudit.
I understand.
Waste = good (when it benefits me)
Waste = bad (when “others” benefit)
“you boys are all gold bugs these days :P”
actually, these past few months, gold bashing has been at an all time high on this board. The more the price goes up, the more people hate it. By the time the general public buys into the sovereign debt crisis that looms us, it will be time to use your gold to buy another undervalued asset.
108 is flawed as all renters rent from owners.
d2b (114)-
Stop making sense.
The only function of the Treasury and Federal Reserve is to promote asset bubbles and further the US’ multi-generational Ponzi scheme against its future generations.
Children and the unborn are the easiest to screw. They have no advocates.
I have no doubt that when the whole national Ponzi finally begins to unravel, someone in DC will come up with the idea of debtor prisons for children.
[116] jamal
“I understand.
Waste = good (when it benefits me)
Waste = bad (when “others” benefit)”
Now you are getting it.
In all seriousness, when you question the complexity of our laws and regulatory schema, you are questioning the dogma of your own party. Want to know why things are so complex? Look in the mirror.
jamal is not complex at all.
[119] doom
“Children and the unborn are the easiest to screw. They have no advocates.”
Except for their parents and the parent’s tax attorney.
We toss around the term “its for the children” a lot here. In a sense, my work is also “for the children.”
Just not your children.
Silvio should stick to banging skanks.
“In arguably the most ridiculous news of the day, Reuters quotes Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi as saying that the “unified EU response has defeated speculative attack on the EUR.” That’s odd – the last time we checked, the euro was trading about 1 basis point away from the lowest level seen in half a decade. We are curious just what the PM’s definition of “victory” is? Interestingly enough, Zero Hedge’s disclosure that European banks are the primary shorters of the euro currency (also remember that whole story about the incentives of European countries to blow themselves up?) has forced Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackermann to publicly announce that his bank has not shorted the euro. We eagerly await all other European banks, especially French and Italian ones, to follow in DB’s footsteps and make it all too clear that it is not them 1) shorting their currency and 2) attempting to blow out their govvie spreads by all means necessary.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/berlusconi-invites-hedge-funds-destroy-his-house-cards-economy-after-he-announces-victory-ov
[114] poorguy
Obviously that realtor is incredibly talented. Please have him call me so he can sell my house in Brigadoon at 20% over my purchase price.
117: Lots of landlords these days are purely circumstantial, incl. banks.
We toss around the term “its for the children” a lot here. In a sense, my work is also “for the children.”
You sound like Michael Jackson
jamal is not complex at all.
Not at all. I see everything in black and white.
Guns = good
Whiskey = good
Teachers = bad
Govt Employees = bad
That is very true, nearly every landlord I ever had was Jewish.
relo says:
May 27, 2010 at 2:42 pm
117: Lots of landlords these days are purely circumstantial, incl. banks.
[127] JJ
“You sound like Michael Jackson”
Nah. I can’t sing worth a damn.
Seriously jj, now your implied sex reference infatuation is extending to children?
128: that may eclipse the pagan chick tangent. You are a funny f’er.
Wesley Snipes had the wrong defense.
He should have blamed this guy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601127&sid=aPtuXG7Sa00I
[128] jamal
“Not at all. I see everything in black and white.
Guns = good
Whiskey = good
Teachers = bad
Govt Employees = bad”
Okaaayyy. A bit too uncomplex, but you seem to be on the right path now.
Poor 113- Your need to parse that sentence. What is asking? In most cases it’s a quite a bit less than in previous years. And yes, the nicely fixed up places in good locations in town are moving briskly. But the cr*p that used to move that quickly is not. It’s festering and rotting and turning gangrenous. The two Montclair listings in my inbox today are both price reductions, one of which is asking almost $100k below assessment and has been on the market for over 90 days.
The house in our neighborhood that Stu and I lovingly refer to as “the hick house” has been sitting for over a month and just had a price reduction this week.
“I don’t know what will happen next year or in ten years but realtor said houses in Montclair are selling like hotcakes and dozens of them went into contract this month for asking. It does not compute”
Towns Challenge New Jersey Voters’ Wishes
After years of frustration over school taxes, New Jersey residents turned out in record numbers last month to reject 58 percent of their school districts’ budget proposals — sounding an unmistakable call to arms that echoed across the country.
But in the weeks since, many of the 316 defeated budgets have been adopted with few, if any, changes by town councils, where members risked thwarting the will of voters — and incurring their wrath — rather than cut sports, lay off teachers or increase class sizes……
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/28/nyregion/28schools.html?hp
Poor – Re 11 Forest in Glen Ridge…exterior pic is now up on GSMLS. No interior pics yet, but the outside looks ok.
“What’s a poor homeowner to do? Don’t ask me. I sold everything in 2005 when my research threw up these numbers, and have been happily renting ever since. And if the toilet blocks up, I just call the landlord.”
Doom [108],
HMMM, sounds familiar.
113.
stop listening to Montclair realtors and pull it up on Trulia.com. Foreclosures and auctions are picking up.
isn’t “poor homeowner” an oymoron. You don’t own a home till the mortgage is paid off and if you own a home outright you can’t be poor. I am stick and tired of people with mortgages calling themselves homeowner, they are glorified renters.
Mr Wantanapolous says:
May 27, 2010 at 3:09 pm
“What’s a poor homeowner to do? Don’t ask me. I sold everything in 2005 when my research threw up these numbers, and have been happily renting ever since. And if the toilet blocks up, I just call the landlord.”
Doom [108],
HMMM, sounds familiar.
Let’s hope their wrong about 2010 Hurricane Forecast:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100527/us_nm/us_hurricane_forecast
“I am stick and tired of people with mortgages calling themselves homeowner, they are glorified renters.”
They were glorified renters until mark to market was replaced by mark to fantasy.
BC (136)-
At this point, if my toilet blocks up, I’m tossing in a grenade, then sitting down to drop a deuce.
141- nice visual
confused (139)-
Great. Let’s shoot that oil slick all over the planet.
escape (142)-
Much obliged.
Doom = Yosemite Sam? :-)
Boy if it wasn’t Einhorn writing this, the NYT would never have printed it.
The first paragraph confirms my ultimate fear: That the debt bomb will explode well in advance of my estimate, well before I can secure mine and my children’s futures from it.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/27/opinion/27einhorn.html?pagewanted=1&ref=general&src=me
apologies if already posted.
No way American Manufacturing can compete with this.
Foxconn installs 1.5 million square meters of netting to keep it’s 420,000 employees who live in dormitories at the factory complex in
Shenzhen China from jumping to their deaths.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64Q14420100527 Shenzhen
Woo Hoo they skyed the markets today!!!
With the BP spill in the Gulf now officially the worst oil spill in U.S. history, I wonder if Captain Hazelwood is going to send BP a bottle of something as a thank you.
138.jj says:
May 27, 2010 at 3:12 pm
isn’t “poor homeowner” an oymoron. You don’t own a home till the mortgage is paid off and if you own a home outright you can’t be poor. I am stick and tired of people with mortgages calling themselves homeowner, they are glorified renters.
———–
But you do own the home; the mortgage is just the security for non-payment.
[148] juice
I seriously wish I had meaningful alternatives to buying Chinese goods. In fact, very few major purchases of ours have been of chinese goods, but it seems that for many things there simply is no alternative. Even if I buy a japanese or american brand product, turn it over and there are the words “Made in China.”
Boy, if Obama ever decided to follow the international tax policies of the rest of the world, we would grow our economy overnight. Literally. Of course, he won’t because it would be a rank admission that there is validity to the Laffer Curve, and no liberal would ever admit that.
[150] shore
From what I remember about Hazelwood, bottles don’t last that long around him.
[149] train
Dead cat bounce. I’ll believe (and invest) when shiny drops about 8%.
Duck,
You are still renting it from the state.
Hazlewood Wisky. Best on the rocks.
“That is not good enough. For someone to make a claim that Gold is a “sound/safe” investment, it has to, at a minimum, beat US treasuries, let alone something like S&P 500.
The “world” had faith in pets.com a decade ago, and had immense faith in sub-prime MBS just a few years ago.”
Gold has had a steady non parabolic rise with multiple pullbacks for 10 years. Comparing it to Pets.com is ludicrous. Meanwhile, it has waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay outperformed treasuries and the S&P. Using gold to hedge against inflation and economic calamity is based on practices that are centuries old. I dare anyone to argue the results. Gold has paid off nicely and will continue to do so.
Whiskey, even.
Bloody, thumb keyboards.
Duck[150];
If I don’t pay my rent, Landlord gets the Sheriff to put me and my crap on the street.
“Homeowner” doesn’t pay the mortgage, Bank gets the Sheriff to put him and his crap out on the street.
Distinction without a difference?
158: The latter may take quite a while.
Re [159];
The former also takes considerably longer than landlords would have their (usually poorer, less educated, uninformed, and likely unrepresented) tenants believe.
I took a CLE class on LT law where the presenter bragged about being able to keep any tennant in any space for at least a year regardless of non-payment – six months without even trying. It considerably affected my view of small-scale real estate ownership as an investment.
“That is not good enough. For someone to make a claim that Gold is a “sound/safe” investment, it has to, at a minimum, beat US treasuries, let alone something like S&P 500″
Beat the S&P? What planet has this guy been on? The spread, from the beginning of the gold bull run, has gone from 70-1, S&P/Gold to approx .9-1 today. A beating or a blowout?
That’s 7-1.
[161] moose
There are legal ways to minimize this hit by disincentivizing potential deadbeat tenants from taking your rental.
The only exception would be for section 8 tenants. But then they would not be true deadbeats.
Rut Ro
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/28/us/28spill.html
I think that when Timmy visited with the Chinese, he suggested they do a verbal support of the euro.
Verbal, that is.
I think that when Timmy visited, the Chinese demanded he “support” them orally as well.
An oil industry insider writes in to TPM regarding what’s happening in the Gulf.
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2010/05/critical_perspective.php
Moose 160 – My company owns/manages/lent to 1,500 multi-family properties across the country and what you say is 100% accurate.
Not only that, the TT’s are much more legally savvy than land-lords give them credit for (at first anyway).
The term is professional renters, they have been in tenant court defending themselves much more often than the small time land lord has.
When Stu and I were in the process of buying our place and looking for our first tenant, a woman posted on our local Yahoo Watecooler message board seeking ‘a landlord with a heart’. She was looking for below market rent, walking distance to train with off street parking. Stu does the math and decides if we can lock her into a longer term lease, it might make sense because we wouldn’t lose any money on vacancies. He invites her to come over to look at the place. I am running late from work, and by the time I have gotten home , they have been talking for a while. I’m greeted at the door by Stu saying ‘She’s really great and really likes the place, but she has a personal bankruptcy within the last 6 months because of her business.’ My mouth is practically agape. Stu told her that he would still consider renting to her, so long as the rest of her credit was squeaky clean ‘Because I have a heart. But my wife, I’m really going to have to sell her on this.’ Because I have no such heart. After a few years at CN, it became blackened and shriveled and dead.
Well the rest of the woman’s credit must have been a disaster because she feigned having problems with freecreditreport.com while she was in our living room. Trusting Stu was going to allow her to run it from home and send it to us. She must have pegged me as a b*tch, because she sent Stu an email later that night saying the tarot cards told her it was not the time to move, but she knew good karma was coming his way. Glad she bowed out before I had to smack Stu upside the head to put the kibosh on that. No way was I depending on that flake in order to pay my mortgage.
Good karma did come Stu’s way though – in the form of awesome, responsible tenants with carpentry skills. Almost 6 years without a vacancy or a late payment.
168: Lots of first-time, desperate LL’s being bent over by the pro’s. Looking to staunch the bleeding until the market “recovers” and turning it into gangrene in the process. Even the non-pro’s learn quickly in this kind of market. I surmise this is what Clot is referring to in the typical homeower’s rental scenario in previous posts.
Gator, it seems we both married very nice guys and they knew exactly what they were doing by marrying us. It’s all balance. When you marry responsibly, you marry what you know you lack.
I am now becoming forgetful. I can’t even remember how old I am – keep saying the wrong age. He corrects me.
I’ve trained him so well, that he uses my lines now on all the scheisters and I can sit back and relax.
169: Stu, really? I wouldn’t have guessed. Did she have big umm, you know, sweater karma. These things tend to cloud our judgement in these matters.
Re BP and the oil leak.
I have heard from various news sources that they plan to try and pump cement down the hole before too long. I asked a friend who is an expert in drilling ( works in NYS NG fields) How exactly that works, because the fluid dynamics dont seem to work from a general engineering perspective. He replied that he has never heard of anyone coming up with a way to set cement into a flowing well and has yet to hear any clue of how BP may have found a way to do this. If you just pump cement in then it flows out just like the drilling mud they are using now. Cement needs a relatively static environment in order to set, even rapid curing cement.
I hope they pull it off, but there seems to be some fairly large holes int heir plan as they have publicized it.
…just another armchair general
An acquaintance of mine just bent his landlord over for 40k to move out. Landlord was selling to someone who wanted to rehab the place and required it delivered vacant. Amazing what kind of rights tenants have in NJ.
Juice,
Damn! Perhaps i need to hire Nom and then stop paying my rent…..
re: #173 – Hyde it takes something 1700 barrels of mud/drilling fluid under pressure 6500 psi to fill the well pipe from top to bottom, the rest they pumped so far about 30k barrels is just leakage. If they pump the same 30k barrels of “cement” down that hole it will harden up good it does not need to be static for it to harden in the pipe if it is all special borehole cement. Think of it like grout not cement some kind of special chemically bonded ceramic borehole cement, not the stuff used on sidewalks.
Nom,
Re:Nompounds
I had mentioned my family inherited 10 acres near the Canadian border awhile ago. Sold long ago but I remember it as high potential nompound area.
Just looking at some real estate there. Check this out.
Dirt Cheap, almost 6 acres, 4 miles to the Canadian border, utilities, and the best part a trout stocked stream on the property. I also know that the border isnt guarded in certain spots and you could seek asylum for when the SHTF. Maybe send in Doom to talk them down to 50k for the land.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/16524-State-Rt30-North_Constable_NY_12926_1099656713
US Army alert raised to Defcon 2.
DEFCON 2
This refers to a further increase in force readiness just below maximum readiness. The most notable time it was declared was during the Cuban Missile Crisis, although the declaration was limited to Strategic Air Command. It is not certain how many times this level of readiness has been reached.
First
Al we only went to Defcon 3 on 9/11.
http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/05/27/2010052701263.html
Link to report.
Ah I see, there is something called Watchcon for the Korean peninsula?
Al – is the 7th fleet forward deployed naval forces (FDNF) in the area?
CC taking calls live on Channel 13. Lets see how this goes when the softball questions run out
relo (170)-
Landlording is a business. Those who get into it without a businesslike approach are rapidly cashiered out of the business.
Underwater homeowners “renting it out until the market turns” are essentially digging their own financial graves. It’s pathetic to witness.
146.
“Boy if it wasn’t Einhorn writing this, the NYT would never have printed it.”
classic example of “Its biased, unless I agree with it.”
The enemy of my enemy is my friend.
So is the enemy of your enemy’s enemy an enema or an anathema?
Soylent green. They have to call this stuff Soylent Green. I will accept no substitutes.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124&sid=aI9nZXjYAzeE
Ket,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704717004575268302434395796.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read
Borehole Cement
http://books.google.com/books?id=stVWavm5grUC&pg=PA177&lpg=PA177&dq=bonded+ceramic+borehole+cement&source=bl&ots=W6rsMMf5bD&sig=mFJVm_IZT-LIy2KWxXs8kwbNPyU&hl=en&ei=ayv_S6LvBMP38Aai7JT5DQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=3&ved=0CCcQ6AEwAg#v=onepage&q=bonded%20ceramic%20borehole%20cement&f=false
Poor BP. I feel so bad for them. They were just trying to make some damn money when the oil accident occurred. I hope all of this doesn’t cost them too much.
The damn government should be helping, but noo. Obama doesn’t want to do that. He wants to nationalize BP being the damn socilist he is. He wants to regulate them and everyone else. Damn socialist.
BP doesn’t need to be under any damn pressure right now. They’re doing all they can. These damn people in the gulf need to shut the hell up and stop complaining. So what if your damn shrimps are covered in oil. You were going to deep fry the damn things anyway, so BP just saved you a damn step by oiling the damn shrimp for you. Stick the damn things in the frying pan and stop with your damn bellyaching….
188: Pat,
c. Aenema
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCEeAn6_QJo
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