Morgan Stanley: Long Road Home for Housing

From Housing Watch:

Home Price Recovery Will Take Three Years, Morgan Stanley Says

There’s more pain ahead for the housing markets, according to a recent report from Morgan Stanley.

How likely is this nightmare, and what can you do with this information?

“We see potential for another 5-10% decline in nominal prices over the next year,” said the authors of “U.S. Housing Strategy: The Long Road Home,” an analysis out this month from Morgan Stanley.

Even after home prices hit bottom, Morgan Stanley’s experts think home prices will stay low “for another three to four years, during which annual appreciation may reach only as high as inflation or income growth.”

Only a few economists still expect a big drop to home prices this year, though most expect prices to sag.

Morgan Stanley is on the pessimistic end of housing forecasts with its prediction of a potential drop of 5 to 10 percent. A decline like that would drag down the closely watched Case Shiller Home Price Index to between 136 and 129.

Other housing economists have softened their forecasts. In December, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, predicted that home prices had a long way to fall before hitting bottom this autumn — down more than a third from its housing boom peak. His prediction back then, in an interview with Reuters, would have sunk the 20-city Case Shiller Index to about 128 — more than 10 percent down from its current level.

Zandi now predicts that, “Home prices nationally may still fall somewhat lower,” according to a recent interview with the Los Angeles Times. That’s a big change from the painful drop he predicted before.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

256 Responses to Morgan Stanley: Long Road Home for Housing

  1. jp says:

    Blue blood House of Morgan speaks the truth

  2. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Pending Sales of Existing U.S. Homes Probably Climbed in April

    The number of contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes probably rose in April for a third consecutive month as buyers rushed to lock in a government tax credit, economists said before a private report today.

    Sales may soften in subsequent months following the April 30 deadline to sign contracts and obtain as much as $8,000 in government assistance. Any sustained recovery in housing hinges on maintaining stability in financial markets and gains in employment in the wake of the European debt crisis.

    “Right now, we’re seeing some buoyancy in sales related to the latest round of tax incentives,” said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at Woodley Park Research in Washington. “When we get into the post-incentive period, we’ll see another air pocket.”

    The report from National Association of Realtors is due at 10 a.m. in Washington. Bloomberg survey estimates ranged from a 3 percent drop to a gain of 10 percent.

  3. Young Buck says:

    Today in Brigadoon.

    June 2 7pm Westfield, NJ Rialto Theater, 250 East Broad Street

    June 2 9pm Westfield, NJ Rialto Theater, 250 East Broad Street

  4. NJGator says:

    Oil, what oil? Have no fear Gulf Coasters. James Cameron will save the day!

  5. NJGator says:

    Oil, what oil? Have no fear Gulf Coasters. James Cameron will save the day!

    Oil nears Florida as BP tries risky cap move
    Feds turn to ‘Titanic’ director James Cameron for help

  6. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    After all the money MS has lost on real estate they would know.

  7. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Gator that made my day! Too much. This country is so messed up.

  8. frank says:

    If MS says sell, you buy.

  9. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Maybe Cameron will put one of those green screens on the oil spewing sea floor and project an oil free environment onto it and everybody will go back to watching American Idol.

  10. Essex says:

    Back in the old days — say, pre-Michael-Moore — a critic went to a film, looked at the photography and editing, made a considered judgment and wrote it up. Now you almost have to re-report the thing yourself. Who didn’t the filmmakers interview? What’s the background of the three “experts” with whom they did speak? Who gave them funding? Which facts were left out?
    The Cartel (Unrated) Bowdon Media (90 min.) Directed by Bob Bowdon. Now playing in New Jersey.
    Rating note: The film contains nothing to offend.
    It’s exhausting and, practically speaking, nearly impossible.
    So let me state my own biases before I review “The Cartel,” a biased new film about New Jersey public education and some parents’ push for charter-school alternatives.
    Years ago, my father attended Jersey City schools, then Rutgers, and got a good education. My two children are in suburban public schools now and get a great education. I know some schoolteachers who are doing terrific jobs.
    This may be similar to your experience. It is not, however, a scenario Bob Bowdon would recognize. In his eyes, the state education system is inherently, irredeemably corrupt. The teachers’ union caters to its dues-paying members (as if any union doesn’t) and is riddled with slackers. Our public schools are a mess and a drain on our strapped economy.
    You might agree. But if you think there may be anything more to the story, don’t expect to find it here. Like the worst “documentaries” — and, like Moore’s work, Bowdon’s film earns the ironic quotes — there’s no attempt to hear both sides, no purpose except to hammer home some talking points and, maybe, influence legislation.
    Unlike Moore, Bowdon isn’t a natural filmmaker; his sarcasm is heavy-handed, and the film’s style (which relies on some crude animation and lots of old TV clips) is flat. But he does share that more famous rabble-rouser’s dislike for balance. In the twisted view of “The Cartel,” every New Jersey school is in a slum — yet also full of eager, well-parented students who arrive ready to learn, only to run headlong into incompetent teachers and corrupt fat-cat principals.
    That’s his reality. Is it yours?
    Sure, plenty of our public schools aren’t turning out ready-for-success graduates. But might not the first school reform begin at home, by raising respectful children who value education? And might it continue by allowing our schools to expel the ones who won’t?
    That, I think, would be the sensible, social-conservative point of view.
    But Bowdon (who got post-production support from a couple of partisan groups, including a pro-voucher organization) takes a more political approach, blaming it all on unions and Democrats.
    “School choice,” he insists, would solve everything, but that involves more than just charter schools. What if the vouchers didn’t cover the tuition at the prep you wanted, or the school didn’t want your child? Oh, and how about that whole pesky church-state thing — do you want your tax dollars going to help fund madrassas? These are questions Bowdon doesn’t really explore.
    Nor does he address whether charter schools are truly any better. He suggests that, even if they aren’t, it doesn’t matter, because they’re safer. But doesn’t their self-selecting nature — only truly involved parents are going to jump through those enrollment hoops — guarantee that?
    Logic doesn’t really matter because movies like “The Cartel,” which trumpets its slant, from its title to its “Godfather”-inspired typography, aren’t interested in exploring questions. They just want to trot out the conclusions they’ve already drawn.
    As long and as loud as they shout, only the already converted ever listen.

  11. gary says:

    I don’t have access to this site from work which is why you all aren’t graced with my presence during the day. I wanted to leave you with this tidbit before I depart: the spouse used to babysit years ago for a neighbors kids who are now grown with families of their own. The one girl recently had twins. The names of the twins? Cole and Carter. The town in which they reside? Westfield.

    Play nice here today and I’ll read your rantings this evening. Love, Gary.

  12. Confused in NJ says:

    So far LA, MS, AL & FL are oiled. “O” has drawn a line in the sand and will propose a Government solution, if it spreads through the Panama Canal to Oregon on the west, and around Florida to Maine on the east. Oregon & Maine will be the line in the sand for “O” and Biden. They refuse to lose more then 15 States. Go “O”.

  13. Knifecatcher - Painhrtz says:

    Cameron, wow I knew this administration was incompetent but their oceanic expert is James Cameron! How about Robert Ballard? You know the guy who actually found the Titanic.

    Maybe they can enlist Kevin Costner, since he did a movie with water once. Of thats right his brother designed something that separates oil from water and they are offering it for free. I guess he hasn’t been in any movies that Il Duce likes!

  14. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Obama thought he was watching a movie about an oil spill in between golf games and vacations. He called Cameron to see how they made it look so life-like.

  15. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “The Long Road Home,” an analysis out this month from Morgan Stanley.”

    HMMM? Sounds like MS may be visiting this site.

    This bust will go much longer, duration, and the decline will be much greater than most can imagine. You don’t clean up a 30 year debt/credit bubble in a year or two. In addition to this, the whole world is deleveraging, jobs will continue to suffer, wages will be close to flat; negative real wages. This funk will go on for years and years. We have all turned Japanese.

    This is no slowdown of a healthy economy or an inventory adjustment. It’s a history book, balance sheet depression. There are no easy fixes.

    Wait until the boomers start to unload. Sell? Sell to whom? Take my house, just pay my taxes.

    Sorry MS, the title should have been; It’s gonna be a long walk home.

  16. Cameron, wow I knew this administration was incompetent but their oceanic expert is James Cameron! How about Robert Ballard?

    From what I understand Cameron is being asked as an expert on under-water robotics. Apparently between the filming of Titanic, The Abyss and a few documentaries he’s become and acknowledged** expert in the field.

    ** Yeah, I’m not sure who proclaimed him an expert either, but this is what I’ve heard.

  17. Knifecatcher - Painhrtz says:

    Tosh take a wild guess who was the technical expert Cameron leaned on for the robotics used in those movies. Has PhD in oceanography, geology and is the worldwide expert in deepwater exploration and forensics.

  18. Cindy says:

    James Cameron as an expert sure is getting around today…3D expert that is…

  19. Confused in NJ says:

    Geitner/Bernanke will declare BP “Too Big To Fail” and back stop it with US Tax Dollars. Otherwise they may be unable to pay the claims.

  20. #17 – Pain – I had figured that, was only relaying why Cameron would be there.

    On a side note, maybe he’ll pepper his testimony with movie quotes?

    I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure.

  21. Cindy says:

    Oh yeah – We have shown “we will prosecute to the full extent of the law” – you know…Just look at how the fraud in banking was handled…

    BP Gulf Spill Prompts Criminal, Civil Investigation by U.S.

  22. Cindy says:

    @ 18 “P@rn Stars in 3-D Lure Consumer to New Sony, Panasonic TVs”

    “”…James Cameron to develop content to market its 3-D sets…”

    Let’s see…I think John should take over with this connection – Cameron in the news….

  23. Mr Hyde says:


    BP is the #1 supplier of fuel to the US military. With those sorts of high level connections i think their damage is fairly limited int he long run. They will put on a good show and hand over what appears to be a substantial amount of cash,but where does that money come from? I wonder if any costs associated with the clean up and civil/criminal penalties might not be passed on to the pump…..

    Any monies paid out by BP will ultimatly come out of the consumers pocket. The only real penalties for BP would be criminal charges against individual executives and a revocation of all Gulf leases, putting the forfeited leases up for bid by the other major oil companies. The money received from the bids for the former BO gulf leases could then be used to help fund the cleanup.

  24. Final Doom says:

    I’m gonna take a wild guess that the massive UK pension beast is probably loaded to the gills with BP stock.

    That should end really well.

  25. Final Doom says:

    Portugal T-bill auction today features yields 4x higher than the last auction.

    Another situation that seems to be moving toward a satisfying conclusion.

  26. Final Doom says:

    Expect to see public demand for Cristiano Ronaldo to be sold into slavery when the inevitable Portugal choke/collapse happens in the WC.

  27. Cindy says:

    23 – Kettle

    Do you think we will end up with strict rules like Canada – (You commented on this a few days ago) – relief wells in place from the get go?

  28. Final Doom says:

    Nike says “Write Your Future”.

    Right now, I’d be doing the rewrite of either “La Grande Bouffe”, “Last Tango in Paris”, “Memorias del Saqueo” or “Soylent Green”.

    Or something that rolls all four movies into one.

  29. Final Doom says:

    Cindy (27)-

    FWIW, I think we will end up with a planet coated in toxic sludge.

    In 10 years, the average adult will also weigh 320 lbs. and eat seven meals a day that are based almost exclusively on factory-raised beef and chicken that has been force-fed the ground up dead of their own species.

  30. Confused in NJ says:

    Shepard Smith had a fascinating segment on the catastrophic Gulf oil spill today, featuring an interview with a former nuclear-sub captain who argued persuasively that it was time — past time, really — to blow up that leaking oil well in the Gulf and put an end to the massive pollution that’s resulted from its being open.

    Smith originally brought on Christopher Brownfield to discuss the potential for using a nuclear bomb to stop the leak, and Brownfield said that yes, it was decided a viable way to stop it — it has been done four times previously. But he gave many compelling reasons NOT to use a nuclear warhead for the job — the biggest one being that the same job could be accomplished with conventional explosives.

    So why aren’t we talking about doing this? Well, Brownfield explained that too:

    Brownfield: If we demolish the well using explosives, the investment’s gone. They lose hundreds of millions of dollars, from the drilling of the well, plus no lawmaker in his right mind would allow BP to drill again in that same spot. So basically, it’s an all-or-nothing thing with BP: They either keep the well alive, or they lose their whole investment and all the oil that they could potentially get from that well.

    As Brownfield explains, “We need to seal this thing off.” Desperately. But why hasn’t anyone been bringing a complete shutdown of the well to the table?

    Brownfield: Yes, I think — stopping the spill immediately. And the reason why we haven’t seen that option is because, frankly, BP is still at the helm. I think President Obama needs to take charge of this, bring all the assets of our military to bear, bring the U.S. Army Corps of engineers, bring the U.S. Navy, and bring in all the private-sector organizations that have the equipment for deep-sea operations to make this happen. Let’s explode this, collapse the well, and put an end to it.

    I don’t know about the rest of you but this story seems like it should be the final straw:

    Scientists are finding enormous oil plumes in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, including one as large as 10 miles long, 3 miles wide and 300 feet thick. The discovery is fresh evidence that the leak from the broken undersea well could be substantially worse than estimates that the government and BP have given.

    “There’s a shocking amount of oil in the deep water, relative to what you see in the surface water,” said Samantha Joye, a researcher at the University of Georgia who is involved in one of the first scientific missions to gather details about what is happening in the gulf. “There’s a tremendous amount of oil in multiple layers, three or four or five layers deep in the water column.”

    The plumes are depleting the oxygen dissolved in the gulf, worrying scientists, who fear that the oxygen level could eventually fall so low as to kill off much of the sea life near the plumes.

    If Brownfield is right, BP has had its chance to save its well. The time has run out.

    If Brownfield is right, it’s time for the president to seize control of the situation and blow this well up

  31. Cindy says:

    “Goldman’s Bid Didn’t Disclose Probe to CalPERS”

    Well, I don’t think that was very nice…

  32. Mr Hyde says:

    Cindy 27

    Nope! if we were smart we would combine brazils rule that requires physical demonstartion of BOPS at operating depth with Canada’s rule reuireing paralell relief wells be drilled at the same time.

    The catch is that deepwater Gulf oil is only economical at high gas prices ( i have seen estimates of sustained price of $85/brl +) or they minize production costs.

    Those two safety measures alone would substantially increase the cost of deepwater drilling and the oil companies would spend massive amounts of money lobbying to prevent their institution. I suspect that there are forces in the DOD and high levels of government that have BP’s back as there have been a number of papers written over the last 10 years stating the deepwater oil production in the gulf was a strategic necessity.

    I think its unlikely that the government is willing to enact regulations that will make ddep water drilling in the gulf uneconomical.

  33. Shore Guy says:

    “The plumes are depleting the oxygen dissolved in the gulf, worrying scientists, who fear that the oxygen level could eventually fall so low as to kill off much of the sea life near the plumes.”

    A sign of this would be a spike in the number of jellies. They thrive where the water is O2 depleted.

  34. Shore Guy says:

    “strategic necessity”

    While the Navy can largely operate with nuclear ships, the Air Force, Marines, and Army run on hydrocarbons — not to mention the American distribution system.

  35. Cindy says:

    Some follow-up on yesterday’s article –

    “Squatting Your Way to Prosperity”

  36. Mr Hyde says:

    Confused 30.

    The risk with explosives, even conventional ones is that due to the geology of the gulf seabed, the explosion could crack the capstones over the oil formation and cause massive additional leaks. If you look at the quantities of oil being found in deepwater it looks like simmons was right and there are indeed upwelling leaks that have worked there way through the weak seabed. The amounts of oil being found are orders of magnitude larger then could be produced by the well head leak alone

    If that is the case, then trying to cap the BOP is a bad idea as it will cause massive backpressure and will make the upwelling leaks bigger and possibly cause additional ones.

    Look at about 1:20 in the following video. This is starting to look like what is happening in the gulf. In this case the best option is a bottom kill using the relief wells while any top kill/explosive efforts risk further destabilizing the geology and making matters much worse.

    The explosion route only works if you have geology that can handle the explosive forces involved without becoming compromised. Everything i have read and the oil guys i have talked suggested that explosives in the gulf seabed are a bad idea.

  37. Mr Hyde says:

    Shore 33

    Its in large part the action of microbes eating the oil that depletes the O2 in the water, so its a cath22

  38. Final Doom says:

    When do the televised executions begin?

  39. Mr Hyde says:


    the seabed geology in the area of the gulf that the well is in is known to be unstable.…/Salt%20Tec%20Abstract%20Book%20Main%20Content.pdf
    “The structure of the deep salt has had a major influence on the subsequent evolution of the deepwater
    Gulf of Mexico. A model in which a thin-salt fringe lay outboard of a thicker-salt Deep Basin can
    explain observed patterns in structural style, seismic data quality, diapir location and orientation,
    overridden diapirs, rafted minibasins, and imbricated sutures. It may also provide suggests for areas of
    future subcanopy hydrocarbon prospectivity…
    We present here a detailed structural and kinematic analysis of the very well known digital
    bathymetric map (NOAA) of the northern GoM. This seafloor image displays clear structural
    evidence of three types of relative displacements between the minibasins: extension, shortening or
    strike-slip. Seismics shows that horizontal displacements are located within the salt ridges that
    separate basins. Our structural mapping puts in evidence a NE-SW trending direction of almost
    uniaxial elongation at regional-scale. This distributed stretching indicates that the allochtonous salt
    layer that underlies the minibasins is flowing toward the Southwest, since at least Neogene times. But
    the geometry and kinematics of strike-slip shear zones (in particular in Green Canyon area) show that
    blocks of pre-Early Miocene sediments underlying the allochtonous salt have rotated around a vertical
    axis. This indicates that even the autochtonous salt layer is involved in the recent deformation
    recorded by the seafloor morphology.”

    Terra infirma: Understanding salt tectonics ,a Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin,
    “Following common usage, we broaden the term “salt” to include all rock bodies composed primarily of halite (NaCl). Salt is mechanically weak and flows like a fluid, even at geologically rapid strain rates. Salt is also relatively incompressible so is less dense than most carbonates and all moderately to fully compacted siliciclastic rocks. Salt’s fluid rheology and incompressibility make it inherently unstable under a wide range of geologic conditions…”

  40. Mr Hyde says:

    Confused, Shore,

    If you want an idea of how delicate drilling in this area of the gulf can be take a look at the following document from BP. It describes the thunderhorse operation which operates in the dame geological strata.

    ‘The Thunder Horse reservoir conditions are among the toughest encountered in the industry,’ he notes, ‘producing fluids at pressures over 1200 bar and temperatures up to 135*C, which can also be corrosive due to the presence of carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulphide. In 1999, there was no subsea equipment capable of handling such fluids, hence high pressure subsea trees – the arrangement of valves that control the wells at the seabed – and all other related subsea equipment and control systems had to be specifically developed for the project, equipment that also had to be designed to operate in 1900m of water…..

    ….’The combination of deep water, salt overhang layers and very deep reservoirs requiring long wells is just one part of the challenge,’ says Charlie Holt, wells delivery manager. ‘Add to that the high reservoir pressure, the high flowrates – some of the wells can individually flow at 50,000bpd or more – and the fact that hydrogen sulphide can be present in the wellfluids once water injection begins, and you have a drilling and completions challenge that no-one had faced before.’

    Hydrocarbons lie in three zones in the Thunder Horse reservoirs, lying between around 5500m and 8000m vertically below the seabed in the Miocene sandstone. When drilling any well, a key parameter is the ratio of pore pressure to fracture gradient. The pore pressure from the hydrocarbons in the rock determines the pressure that must be exerted by the drilling mud circulated through the wellbore to prevent the hydrocarbons flowing into the well as it is being drilled, while the fracture gradient indicates the equivalent mud weight that – if too high – will fracture the rocks, an event to be avoided. Drilling a successful well requires staying in the window between these two controlling pressures, a window which varies with drilling depth….

  41. jj says:

    funny down in greenwich village BP stands for Butt Plug, I guess the folks in the village long ago coined the phrase be careful with the BP if you don’t want a gusher of a leak.

  42. Confused in NJ says:

    Mr Hyde;

    Obviously we are doomed as the area is too fragile to ever have allowed drilling to begin with. The two relief wells will directly cause further damage to the oil cap. As you pointed out we are already leaking oil outside the existing well.

  43. Mr Hyde says:


    We arent doomed. its just one heck of a mess and will probably take 6 – 12 months to close off. Its possible to drill in the area but they should be taking substantially more safety precautions then they are currently doing.

  44. Mr Hyde says:


    almost forgot.

    -just and armchair general

  45. Shore Guy says:

    better than an arm-hair general

  46. Shore Guy says:

    “but they should be taking substantially more safety precautions then they are currently doing.”

    Just remember. It cost too much to armor c0ckpit doors, well, until it did’nt.

  47. chicagofinance says:

    Yikes says:
    June 1, 2010 at 8:04 pm

    chicagofinance says:
    June 1, 2010 at 1:21 pm
    You got kids? PA gives any resident a 12K state tax deduction for 529 contribution, so you may as well toss a chunk in there…..if possible, have it put in one of your parents’ names; give them the money and have them fund it…

    also, you mention IRAs…..however things split out with your wife, if one of you does not have an IRA (each SS# is considered distinct), you can slam the a contrib into a non-ded 2010 IRA contrib and then convert to a Roth.

    Chi Fi – great stuff. question: Do the parents have to live in PA in the first scenario?

    and what is the adv to funding in the parents name instead of my own?

    yikes: I should have given a more complete answer. If the grandparents do not live in PA, then the best plan for that state should apply. Also, the tax break for the plan would belong to the funding source, so in this case it would be the grandparents. The tax break is on STATE TAX only. So in the case of PA it is (the total amount funded in that year capped at $12K) x (your marginal tax rate). The federal tax break is that any gains on the 529 are not taxable upon qualified withdrawal.

    The issue with the Roth is that you can make a non-deductible contribution and then convert it to a Roth, and since the full account balance is after-tax, there is no tax payable for the conversion. HOWEVER, if you have other non-Roth IRAs, then things get very messy and forget it. However, the husband and the wife can look at everything separately as the view is by SS#.

    Grandparents are helpful for 529’s because colleges and federal programs (for the most part) completely ignore assets of anyone other than the student or parents. So a 529 owned by a grandparent is invisible. At the right time, keep the student’s SS# off the 529 until they receive their final aid package as a senior, then empty the accounts… harm/no foul…..

  48. chicagofinance says:

    until they receive their final aid package as a senior IN COLLEGE, then empty the accounts…

  49. chicagofinance says:

    To be clear, if a college financial aid office starts seeing money flying in from an unknown source, they will react “WTF is this?” “NO SOUP FOR YOU”….you have to be patient and wait until it is beyond the chance for them to rook you…..

  50. Shore Guy says:

    So, was he stealing money or messing with children?

    Any guesses?

  51. Sas3 says:

    Shore, is a small nuke too much of a risk to close the well? Is it practical with conventional explosives? BP won’t like the solution, but O should grow a pair and stop this circus. I think they are trying to salvage the well, but at some point they should cut losses.

  52. Confused in NJ says:

    44.Mr Hyde says:
    June 2, 2010 at 10:41 am

    We arent doomed. its just one heck of a mess and will probably take 6 – 12 months to close off. Its possible to drill in the area but they should be taking substantially more safety precautions then they are currently doing

    Doubtfull, the 1979 Mexico Oil Well Leak wasn’t really stopped by the 10 month relief wells, rather the pressure had dropped dramatically as the 10 month leak exhaused much of the oil.

  53. Mr Hyde says:

    Confused 54

    Maybe, only time will tell.

  54. Juice Box says:

    re #42 – JJ – Two good doctor friends of mine did their residency at St. Vinny’s. In their Apt in the West Village they had a section on the fridge for X-Rays called “R*e*ctal Foreign Bodies of the week.”

    Those X-Rays gave new meaning to the phrase hiding the salami.

  55. Mr Hyde says:


    This isnt about BP trying to recover the formation for later extraction. This formation is dead. The leaking formation is one of the shallower and smaller ones in the area. We are all very lucky it was this well that blew out and not one of the ulra deep well that is much larger and at higher pressure such as those being drilled and pumped by the thunderhorse platform.

    In my armchair general opinion BP is very nervous about it becomeing public that they have had the casing walls blowout as well and that the main leaks are welling up through the seabed florr and are large enough that the leaking BOP/riser is just a drop in the bucket.

    Consider that recent measurements seem to suggest that the BOP may indeed be leaking only 5,000 – 10,000 BPD of oil. Yet they are finding plumes that suggest flow rates of 50,000 – 100,000 BPD. That only works is there are upwellings from breached casing and represents a worst case.

    This is about BP trying to keep everyone focused on the BOP/wellhead while trying to avoid making matters worse. plugging the well from the top has a high probability of making the suspected seabed upwelling much worse.

  56. Jill says:

    G*d, you people are ignorant. Are you still upset about how DiCaprio made your weiner twinkle twelve years ago and you didn’t understand it? Is that why the hysteria over James Cameron being called in on this?

    If you knew anything, you’d know that Cameron is highly knowledgeable both about underwater cameras for deep-water photography, and also about the kind of robotics that are now routine for dives into the kind of water into which oil is now gushing. You might not like his movies or his ego, but he’s highly skilled in these areas.

    Ballard did find the Titanic, but Cameron made a quantum leap forward in photographing it and in developing remote-controlled robots that can get into nooks and crannies of wrecked things — like ships and oil wells.

  57. jj says:

    chicagofinance you are thinking inside the box, just find the brokest set of grandparents and have them adopt the kids when they are 16. Ride that gravy train you funky monkey and remember for some strange reason Social Security does not count as income on Financial Aid Form. So even better with Grand Ma and Grand Pa.

  58. Juice Box says:

    re#58 – Jill not Hysteria just Hysterical….

    Sure Lady Gaga, Kevin Coster and James Cameron can come up with a solution that thousands of Engineers and Scientist cannot.

    Perhaps Costner can swim down using his gills and turn a few knobs on the BOP to release the shearing device or Cameron can summon up his Aliens to nuke it from space and Lady Gaga can sing to the whales to tell them to escape.

  59. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Well Al and Tipper are getting divorced. Undoubtedly it has something to do with unsuitable music lyrics and album covers. For Shame Def Leppard and Ozzy Osbourne! For Shame!!!

  60. make money says:

    My BP purchase looks pretty good today. Anyone else pick up some shares yesterday or today?

  61. make money says:


    Adoption process is not cheap.

  62. relo says:


    Such a Cameron fan and you don’t mention his finest work?

    ps- Er, twinkle? It was Kate’s hoots.

  63. Juice Box says:

    Is the rally on or off I am confused?

    Pending-home sales hit a six-month high in April. But applications for loans to buy homes dropped last week for the fourth straight week, holding 13-year lows, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.

  64. sas says:




    give me The Maltese Falcon.


  65. sas says:

    btw. adjust sales for Avitar for inflatin, i think it ain’t even in the top 20 all-time.

    hell, even Sound of Music did better than avitar.


  66. jj says:

    Actually some states never put a age limit for kids you just give up at a firehouse/hospital etc. no questions asked. I heard of people flying to these states and dumping kids as old as 15.

    make money says:
    June 2, 2010 at 11:57 am

    Adoption process is not cheap.

  67. jj says:

    I only know one person who saw avitar. Big deal. Even movies like ET, Jaws and Starwars I remember lines around the block and everyone you knew saw it.

    Gone with the wind sold a lot more tickets than Avitar.

  68. Juice Box says:

    Christie has big cahones.

    N.J. Gov. Christie revises
    bid for education grant;
    throws out compromise

    Tuesday, June 1, 2010
    Last updated: Tuesday June 1, 2010, 7:16 PM

    The Record

    Governor Christie threw out the school
    reform blueprint endorsed by the state’s
    biggest teachers union last week and filed a
    new bid Tuesday for a high-stakes federal
    grant known as “Race to the Top.”

    Christie said his education commissioner
    had compromised too much in order to win
    the union’s blessing for a contest that could
    bring $400 million to the state. Christie said
    the new proposal reinstated key elements of
    earlier plans, such as merit pay for individual
    teachers, putting job performance over
    seniority when laying off staff, making it
    easier to fire poor teachers, and giving
    bonuses to successful faculty who relocate
    to failing schools.

    The eleventh-hour change came as a shock
    to officials at the New Jersey Education
    Association, who said they learned on
    Tuesday afternoon – the contest deadline –
    that the governor had changed the
    application and taken off their signatures of

    Union leaders and education commissioner
    Bret Schundler had spent weeks hammering
    out compromises on the plan, and on
    Thursday both parties expressed satisfaction
    that they had come up with a collaborative
    blueprint. Union buy-in wins points in the
    stiff competition.

    NJEA President Barbara Keshishian reacted
    “with a mixture of deep disappointment, utter
    frustration and total outrage” to the news
    that the application had been rewritten, she
    said in a release. “The biggest losers in this
    entire fiasco are the state’s 1.4 million

    Christie told reporters Tuesday that he was
    not involved in the past weeks’ discussions b
    etween the union and commissioner
    Schundler, and that when he learned the
    details of the compromise on Friday, he told
    Schundler to spend the holiday weekend
    restoring principles such as individual merit
    pay. The union-endorsed plan had focused
    on school-wide bonuses for schools that
    made strong gains, and it kept seniority-
    based job protections.

    Christie said he retained faith in his
    education commissioner and wanted
    “creative tension” within his staff.

  69. young buck says:

    Talk about local board of education members being crimals…

    Roselle school board member is arrested on burglary charges after police chase

    By Eliot Caroom/For the Star-Ledger
    June 01, 2010, 7:44PM

    CRANFORD — Roselle school board member Michael Boyd sat in the Union County Jail this evening after leading police officers on a two-town chase that ended when he flipped his car and tried to run away, according to Cranford police.

    An officer initially tried to pull Boyd, 39, over when they saw that his car matched the description of a vehicle seen leaving a car burglary on Munsee Drive in Cranford.

    Boyd, a computer technician for Colgate-Palmolive in Manhattan, was elected to serve on the borough’s school board last year. He ran with Shondalyn Gales and Anthony Esposito on several issues, including improved governance of Roselle schools and guaranteeing the district’s financial accountability.

    Roselle school district spokesman Dan Burns said Tuesday he couldn’t comment on the arrest, because the district had no knowledge of it.

    Cranford police said the chase began about 1:30 a.m. Monday morning when Cranford police Officer Derek Farbanec spotted Boyd’s car on Myrtle Street.

    “(The officer) turned on his lights, and the vehicle accelerated and went on to Amsterdam Avenue in Roselle,” said Sgt. Gerard Quinn of the Cranford police. “Due to the recklessness of the driver, the Cranford unit terminated the pursuit. Several blocks later, the officer could hear a crash.”

    When the officer caught up to the car at Aldene Road, it had rolled over and hit a telephone pole, Quinn said.

    Boyd crawled out of the car, ran away and tried to climb a fence, but Farbanec pulled him off the fence and arrested him. He was charged with criminal mischief, burglary to a motor vehicle, eluding a law enforcement officer, theft and resisting arrest, according to police.

    Police said that a duffle bag filled with $1,700 in stolen property from the Cranford burglary was found in Boyd’s car. It included CDs, cosmetics, an mp3 player, cash and a Coach wallet with gift certificates.

    Boyd was being held in lieu of $25,000 bail in the Union County Jail Tuesday.
    Quinn also said he received motor vehicle tickets for speeding, failure to stop and driving with a suspended license.

  70. stan says:

    The impromptu defense of James Cameron has to be the oddest post of all time on this board, and that includes all spambots.

    Genocide, anarchy, RE, guns, JJ stories are all ok, but don’t you dare question why James Cameron is now in charge of the oil response.


  71. sas says:

    “you dare question why James Cameron is now in charge of the oil response”

    its easy why he was picked.
    you make it entertainment, then the jellyfish public smiles.. goes oohh ahh…

    and then they forget about it and eat Doritos and Applebees (there favorite salt lick).


  72. Knifecatcher - Painhrtz says:

    SAS when did Applebees become the favorite salt lick? I always hung around McD’s to see the mouth breathing squids. Guess I’m going to have to change my vantage points.

  73. Pat says:

    jill and stan are the same person. Has to be. Funny, funny and too good to be true.

    And youse guys fell for it.

    It wasn’t “Bust on Amish Day” at all, was it? No. No, it wasn’t. Hey, I’m all over “Movie Directors Who get to Fix the Gulf of Mexico Day.”

    But I just don’t think I can match Jill’s sarcastic but deadpan humor.

  74. schabadoo says:

    give me The Maltese Falcon

    Yeah, but you don’t mind a reasonable amount of trouble.

    I’m still shocked they got by the censors with ‘gunsel’.

  75. Final Doom says:

    I especially like the dishes at Applebee’s that have lots of cheese.

  76. Final Doom says:

    Pat (75)-

    Several Jewish friends of mine are organizing a pogrom against the Amish.

    The first dehumanizing strike against them will be forced use of telephones.

  77. Knifecatcher - Painhrtz says:

    Amish, God I hate them! I got stuck behind a buggy in Lancaster PA and was 45 minutes late for a meeting.

    Stupid luddites, why don’t they join us in the 21st century. they should all be forced into camps full of electronic devices.

  78. Mr Hyde says:


    We should forcible implantation programs. The amish could be the first to receive their RFID microchips followed by embedded iphones!!!! Or we could just nuke them, a low yield nuke, airburst over lancaster.

  79. Final Doom says:

    The Amish are so lame that even the lady who played the hot Amish chick in “Witness” turned out to be a rugmunch.

  80. jj says:

    Question of day for people under 35 who have a job only.

    My first job I was told my job was to do whatever my boss told me as long as it was not illegal, immoral or unethical.

    I have followed that rule ever sense and moved up the ladder, if boss was a jerk or company going down tubes either transfered or quit.

    I have staff under 35 who actually do their job. But what drives me nuts is they ask for vacation when things are busy, won’t work one minute ot, ask for stuff like telecommuting then they have no kids, wont’t eat or drink what they are told to eat or drink even if they eat or drink it.

    Case in point the “Luxemburg Cupcake Incident” SVP visting bought expensive cupcakes and put them out on table and said to the two staff members sitting near by he bought these amazing special cupcakes for them all the way from Luxemburg and he came straight from airport to office so they are very fresh. Both staff did not eat a cupcake. Then to my horror one staff member after SVP leaves gets up to eat a cupcake, I then go WTF and she goes I don’t like to be told to when to eat. I had to explain to her that is the equivalent of going to your future mother in laws house for your first thanksgiving and then refusing to eat the turkey.

    Another time we had a “granolia” incident of a similar nature. This combined up with similar things boss has first kid staff does not even buy boss even a card that says congratulations, heck not even an email and then two weeks later walks into same bosses office and wants to know when he or she can get promoted. I know some of this does not matter, but why do people feel they can do this little things that greatly annoy people and still deserve a big raise and bonus? I get it if you want to be an AVP for like and sit in the cube. But why do they think they can be SVP this way. My friend works at Hewitt which is a huge HR consulting company and she says many of her clients have this problem.

    What up?

  81. Final Doom says:

    Subject the Amish to hours and hours of looped p0rn.

    That’ll fix their little red wagons.

  82. NJGator says:

    Yay. Promotion Day! Ending the drought of almost 22 months without a raise. Did the math on what the extra money amounts to a month (and then factoring in that I didn’t get any raise last year)….Stu, Lil Gator and I are going to go out an celebrate anyway!

  83. relo says:

    82: John,

    Sounds like you’ve found some new interview questions.

  84. DL says:

    No jobs.
    No credit.
    Housing crash.
    Turkey turning eastward.
    International terrorism.
    Paper money regime collapsing.
    Two wars for the sake of creating Switzerland in South West Asia/Middle East (fat chance).
    And the worst is yet to come.

  85. schabadoo says:

    What up?

    I believe the mindset is: ‘I do my job, my work gets done, that’s what I’m paid to do’. Maybe buy them a Dale Carnegie book?

    I’ve only worked for small companies since leaving the Devils, and asking about someone’s sick kid almost feels required, like it’s the cost of doing business.

  86. Knifecatcher - Painhrtz says:

    Hyde – and when we are done with the Amish we can move on to the Mennonites, they certainly aren’t ‘Merican enough for us are they?

  87. jj says:

    Re 85

    Here it is my interview questions.

    If your spouse has a more important job then you and you always call in sick or take the day when kids are sick or your furnance or car breaks can you not let people know that is how little you think of job.

    When you boss gets married or has his first kid will you send a card?

    When a very important client or big boss asks you to eat a cupcake can you just eat the damm cupcake?

    Can you resist packing up loudly at 455 pm so we all know you are running out the door at five pm.

    If you and your co-worker do the same amount of work and I give you both 50K for a christmas bonus but you have a rich spouse and no kids and the other has a stay at home spouse and four kids and a big mortgage and college to pay for can you not go running around office saying how you blew the money on cruises, clothes and jewlery cause your spouse is rich. It just makes your co-worker hate you and your boss feel bad even though he did right thing.

    Can you read a damm WSJ on way to work and not shake your stupid head to an IPOD.

    After 5pm Friday and before 8:30 am Monday look at your damm BB once in a while buddy.

    If you are looking for a union job can you pleae join an union and don’t waste my time.

    If the big boss or client likes Yankees, Giants, Jets etc and you have a meeting with him on Monday after a big game would it kill you to spend ten minutes with the paper morning of meeting so you can join in the small talk and not look stupid.

    Now final interview question if you plan on doing the opposite of everything above can you resist coming into my office every six months asking for a bonus or raise. If you can your are hired, we need cube sitters.

  88. Mr Hyde says:


    Now final interview question if you plan on doing the opposite of everything above can you resist coming into my office every six months asking for a bonus or raise. If you can your are hired, we need cube sitters.

    If i hire you a top notch hooker on bosses day can i still ignore your to-do list and expect a raise every 6 months?

  89. Confused in NJ says:

    Black lawmakers push to cut back new ethics office

    Associated Press Writer Ben Evans,
    WASHINGTON – Nearly half of the members of the all-Democratic Congressional Black Caucus want to scale back the aggressive ethics procedures that Democrats trumpeted after gaining control of Congress.

    Rep. Marcia Fudge, D-Ohio, and 19 fellow black lawmakers quietly introduced a resolution last week that would restrict the powers of the new independent Office of Congressional Ethics. The office, formed by Congress in 2008, is run by a panel of private citizens.

    Since its inception, the office has investigated at least eight black caucus members, including veteran Rep. Charlie Rangel, D-N.Y.

    Fudge did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Some lawmakers say the increased transparency of the new office is unfair to lawmakers who are ultimately cleared

  90. Doyle says:

    Very funny JJ. Under 35 (barely) and I’m with you. If you do those things in my line of work (sales) you’ll be out on your ear. Unless you’re back room, in which case they will let you do the grunt work for years with mediocre pay and the illusion of a future with the company. One day you wake up and realize you’ve peaked, have no future and wasted years of your life in a cube.

    Oh, and nobody feels bad for you, you’re lazy and it is your fault.

  91. Al "Fat Thumbery" Gore says:



    Hmmm. Do you have any potassium iodide? I like your style.

    US mint out of silver and gold again.

    Hopefully soon the showdown between the Irish flotilla and Israel will get underway.


    What exactly do these employees do to deserve a 50k bonus? Punch numbers into a pc?

  92. jj says:

    Not much for 50, but I like to give good people 150 or more. I am a pretty genrous guy.


    What exactly do these employees do to deserve a 50k bonus? Punch numbers into a pc?

  93. RayC says:

    Sorry – late to the game.

    Is James Cameron as an underwater expert more or less ridiculous than B-Movie actor Ronald Reagan as President?

  94. Mr Hyde says:

    confused 91

    why do you hate black people?

  95. homeboken says:

    JJ – Simple answer for you. Those who want to pull in that bonus and get the promotion will do all that you said. It is very likely that those that do not either:
    A. Do not care about the job they do everyday.
    B. Are just killing time until they get knocked up
    C. A combo of A&B PLUS they generally think you are a terrific bore and can’t be bothered with the details of your life.

    Obviously if they read these boards they would know C is false, but it is my experience that most kids 25-35 think they are smarter than their boss and that the only reason they are not the boss is b/c they are too young.

    There is a gigantic ego attached to late Gen X, Early Gen Y.

  96. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Shore Guy,

    Any interest?

    I’m serious. Black Horse Farm in Auburn, ME, has the better aspects of a Nompound (and is less than 25 miles from my sister’s nompound), but this farm is one where I’d consider a minority investment.

  97. NJGator says:

    BTW – In regards to #84 I will actually be in the market to hire a junior person for my team. If you know of anyone with really solid excel and relational database skills (web skills a plus) that is ambitious, willing to learn, not a flake and willing to work for publishing wages, please get my email from Grim.

  98. Final Doom says:

    jj (89)-

    What if the cupcake is trapped inside his trousers?

    “When a very important client or big boss asks you to eat a cupcake can you just eat the damm cupcake?”

  99. Shore Guy says:

    From Bloomberg:

    By Andrew Frye and William Selway

    June 2 (Bloomberg) — Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has been trimming its investment in municipal debt, predicted a “terrible problem” for the bonds in coming years.

    “There will be a terrible problem and then the question becomes will the federal government help,” Buffett, 79, said today at a hearing of the U.S. Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in New York. “I don’t know how I would rate them myself. It’s a bet on how the federal government will act over time.”

    Berkshire’s investment portfolio included municipal bonds valued at less than $3.9 billion as of March 31, down from more than $4.7 billion at the end of 2008. The company had a maximum of $16 billion at risk in derivatives tied to such debt, according to the company’s annual report for 2009.

    Buffett, Berkshire’s chairman and chief executive, has previously warned about the risks of insuring municipal bonds. In his annual letter to shareholders in 2009, he said public officials may be tempted to default on bonds whose payments are guaranteed by insurance companies rather than push through needed tax increases. He said guaranteeing municipal bonds against default “has the look today of a dangerous business.”


  100. Confused in NJ says:

    96.Mr Hyde says:
    June 2, 2010 at 3:28 pm
    confused 91

    why do you hate black people?

    That was an AP article today? I don’t like political crooks, but that crosses all stratums. If the Ethics committee is neutered, it will allow All Politicians to get a Free Pass. I don’t believe the caucaus proposal was exempting a particular group. Unless that’s what you were actually alluding to? Personally, I wish they had existed back when Ted Kennedy had the Betty Jo incident. I would have liked to see an unbiased group investigate that. I would also like to see them investigate Joe Biden, Barney Franks, Tim Geitner, etc.

  101. Shore Guy says:

    Blueberry farming? It makes me think of the girl from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, who blue up like a giant blueberry.

  102. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    With all the Amish bashing, I am reminded that one of my pre-Nompound ideas was to enter into a joint venture with struggling Amish farmers that would allow them to stay on the land and would give my group rights to it (and an eventual life estate).

    Done right, it would qualify as a nice little, perfectly legal, tax shelter, and it would also help preserve the Amish way of life.

  103. Mr Hyde says:

    Confused 102

    I was just being a smart ass and poking fun at barbara.

  104. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Now here’s a Nompound!!!!!

    Of course, if you have this kind of money, you already have a Nompound elsewhere.

  105. NJGator says:

    Fried’s Gung Ho After China Trip

    Montclair Mayor Jerry Fried, who recently returned from a two-week trip to China, said he was pleased with what he came away with.

    “It was a very good trip and I met my goals,” Fried told Baristanet. “We established leads for future business investment and also established a cultural and educational exchange.”

    Fried, who was in the world’s most populous nation to speak at a technology seminar, also took time to flog Montclair to the Chinese and to think of mutually beneficial ties in a bid to raise sagging revenue at home.

    “Like all NJ municipalities, we’re pummeled by the global economic crisis,” Fried said. “We are a small but important city,” with plenty to offer in terms of location, creative talent, quality of life and innovation in sustainability.

    These, Fried said, he hoped, could help lure “great people, innovative businesses and direct investment into Montclair” from China.

    Fast-growing China, which is both the world’s top polluter and a leader in green technology, lags in innovation of products and services.

    That’s where Montclair could come in, Fried said.

    “We have what they need – creativity in education and culture, innovation in business, a perfect location, and leadership in sustainability,” he said, describing China as a massive investor in math and science education but desperately needing to overhaul its education system to inspire new ideas.

    By the end of his trip, Fried, in collaboration with the town’s board of education, struck a deal to get two free Mandarin teachers for Montclair elementary schools, while 10 Chinese students will head to Montclair High School.

  106. njescapee says:

    Police Hunting Serial Butt Grabber

    no kidding

  107. Charlie R says:

    Ethics Panel how the hell am I going to hide income from the IRS on the rental of my condo in the Dominican Republic if there are Ethics committees and special prosecutors investigating?

  108. Ben says:

    “I have staff under 35 who actually do their job. But what drives me nuts is they ask for vacation when things are busy, won’t work one minute ot, ask for stuff like telecommuting then they have no kids, wont’t eat or drink what they are told to eat or drink even if they eat or drink it.”

    This is the generation of kids that you and your generation raised. Enjoy. Just wait until their kids get jobs. You’ll really be in for a treat.

  109. jj says:

    Funny part I think they are a tremendous bore. Most young people I know under 30 don’t do Hamptons, ski houses, have fast cars, go to hedonism or club med, sleep around and party hard. They seem to be sitting in starbucks listening to their IPOD or talking on their cell phone and sxtexting. Actually, I always think what a waste of youth. They are also stupider. I think 95% of my friends were in a part time MBA program in their early 20s most kids now are content to get a college degree.

    I think part of the problem is the people at the top busted their butts to get a cushy job in their 40s and the people in their 20’s want that job without the busting their butt part.

    I would love to work for me!!!

    homeboken says:
    June 2, 2010 at 3:45 pm
    JJ – Simple answer for you. Those who want to pull in that bonus and get the promotion will do all that you said. It is very likely that those that do not either:
    A. Do not care about the job they do everyday.
    B. Are just killing time until they get knocked up
    C. A combo of A&B PLUS they generally think you are a terrific bore and can’t be bothered with the details of your life.

    Obviously if they read these boards they would know C is false, but it is my experience that most kids 25-35 think they are smarter than their boss and that the only reason they are not the boss is b/c they are too young.

    There is a gigantic ego attached to late Gen X, Early Gen Y.

  110. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Question for the Assembled–

    Can anyone recommend a good (need not be cheap, but not gold-plated expensive either) HVAC repair person in the Westfield vicinity for a residential central air unit?

    Need someone good and knowledgeable. This person may also be offered additional work as an expert witness.


  111. Charlie R says:

    re: #107 Free Mandarin teachers? Does the Union know about this?

    Also Cantonese is the language spoken by the farmers. Cantonese and Taishanese dialects are some of the primary forms of Chinese that Westerners come into contact with.

  112. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [108] escapee

    That serial butt grabber looks a lot like Hyde.

  113. NJGator says:

    Charlie 113 – I am sure the union will have a field day with this. We’re laying off all the elementary Spanish and French teachers and replacing them with Chinese slave labor. The next BOE meeting should be a fun one.

  114. homeboken says:

    “I would love to work for me!!!”

    No sh!t!!

    What you are starting to see is the beginning of the connected generation. A generation that would rather communicate with via letters on a screen as opposed to a drink at Happy Hour. This generation congregates with friends on internet sites, and comments on photos. It will only get worse.

    I loathe the use of technology as social interaction, but I think I am in the minority in my generation.

  115. homeboken says:

    Well I guess I don’t loathe it, I seem to have no problem anonymously commenting on blogs to perfect strangers.

  116. Mr Hyde says:


    Hey, I have an alibi!!!!! And am a little to old anyway.

  117. Mr Hyde says:

    Gator 115,

    i hear china is looking for english teachers.

  118. Mr Hyde says:


    I should probably stay away from south florida for a while.

  119. chicagofinance says:

    Great quote from some random person although it sounds like clot….

    “Gore’s made a fortune off junk science and lecturing commoners on how many times to flush the toilet.”

  120. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [103] shore guy

    And this place is literally on the shore (or right across the street anyway).

    From my perspective, it has many of the aspects of a Nompound (agriculture, timber, space for multiple groups, remoteness, and outstructures). It does not, however, have year-round appeal or ready access to attractions (like skiing) that promote current use and perhaps rents.

    Thus, it would be a fine addition to a nompound property portfolio, but not the only addition as it is not exactly a place I would spend much time in. Rather, it would be the basic SHTF nompound where one could go, provided that it paid for itself from agriculture if nothing hits a fan.

    In that event, I would want to pool several investors, and if one wanted to be in residence, they would be the GP or managing member.

  121. chicagofinance says:

    Can you wait until July?

    Mr Hyde says:
    June 2, 2010 at 2:35 pm


    We should forcible implantation programs. The amish could be the first to receive their RFID microchips followed by embedded iphones!!!! Or we could just nuke them, a low yield nuke, airburst over lancaster.

  122. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [103] shore guy

    And shore, if things got REALLY bad (true armageddon), you could get there by boat!!!

  123. Ben says:

    ““Gore’s made a fortune off junk science and lecturing commoners on how many times to flush the toilet.””

    Al Gore and the rest of the global warming alarmists always fail to mention that the timescale their hypothetical events would happen is on the order of decades and civilization could easily adjust to any climate change that will occur in the next 50 years with little effort. They would have you believe a tidal wave is approaching the coast of Florida next week. After 10 years of scientific data analysis and mathematical fitting expertise, I can clearly say, the global warming data is far to noisy to ever try to draw a scientific conclusion on what happens, and any academic that insists otherwise needs revisit the method of “propagation of error”. Last time I took some popular global warming data and fit it to multiexponential function with 10 floating parameters, it returned a standard deviation of 300%. Anyone who tries to construct a model based on that data should have their degree revoked.

  124. Juice Box says:

    re: #116 – “technology as social interaction”

    Somehow Farm-ville does not quite have the same effect as alcohol when it comes to social lubricant.

  125. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [123] chifi

    And hyde, keep the yield low, and don’t nuke Cabela’s. Real cheap ammo, cheaper than the source I turned you onto.

    Russian Tula .223, about 22 cents a round (steel case). Want brass? Fiocchi, 50 for $18. That’s better than Cabela’s bulk price.

    Bought both, but forgot I had a bulk box of .223 at home, so I’ve got more .223 than I wanted.

    Time to go west and make some noise. Where’s scribe?

  126. Mr Hyde says:


    I may see you there.

  127. willwork4beer says:

    A is for Amish…

    They’re a pack of inbred roadblocks to progress in technology. How can they say they’re “plain” when they stand out in crowd? The hypocrites!

    So who do we pick on tomorrow?

    Possible candidate:


    (Dirty little freakin’ Sprouts! Or should we call them The Phlegms?)

  128. Confused in NJ says:

    105.Mr Hyde says:
    June 2, 2010 at 4:37 pm
    Confused 102

    I was just being a smart ass and poking fun at barbara

    I think the Caucus may have felt they were being singled out. I would like to see the ethics committee assure them they are unbiased by censuring a much larger group. I would start by age with the oldest, as they have had a lot more time to be corrupted. Maybe by the time you get to the youngest, they would have mended their ways, out of Fear.

  129. Shore Guy says:

    “It was a very good trip and I met my goals,”

    Yea, a great vacation on the taxpayer’s dime.

  130. Shore Guy says:

    taxpayers’ even

  131. Nomad says:

    #101 – Shore

    I thought muni-bond insurance only covers the coupon so if they default, I am out the principal.

    Please enlighten me if I am wrong.

  132. NJGator says:

    Shore – the sci fi is never ending. He is an embarrassment of a Mayor.

    ‘Fried, who is helping to facilitate a China-US solar conference in September in the Yellow River District, a new ecological zone, will also meet with the NJEDA to weave Montclair into a flow of trade between the state and China worth $2 billion.’

  133. willwork4beer says:

    Entire N.J. judicial panel resigns to protest Gov. Christie’s non-tenure of Justice Wallace

    By Chris Megerian/Statehouse Bureau June 02, 2010, 4:36PM

    TRENTON — A state panel of legal experts that reviews nominees to the Superior Court resigned en masse today in protest over Gov. Chris Christie’s decision to not renominate Supreme Court Justice John Wallace. Members of the seven-person Judicial Advisory Panel included four former Supreme Court justices: James Coleman, Alan Handler, Stewart Pollock and Deborah Poritz.

  134. homeboken says:

    Beer 135- That is too bad.

    Attention unemployed masses of NJ, there are 7 job openings at the Judicial Advisory Panel

  135. Final Doom says:

    Ben (110)-

    The current crop of young adults in the workforce are the first to have been brainwashed by the brainwashed.

    All downhill from here.

  136. Final Doom says:

    jj (111)-

    They are boring. That’s one of the signs of the brainwashed.

  137. willwork4beer says:

    #136 ‘boken

    I’ve been looking for some extra work, so maybe I should apply. I could be the judge in charge of reviewing the candidates’ beer choices.

    “You actually drink Natural Light?!?! No way we’re letting you into the club!”

  138. Final Doom says:

    beer (129)-

    Belgians. Mussels, waffles, french fries with mayonnaise, bad soccer, French tax haven, beer with cherry juice, military cowardice, collectivists, malingerers, source of UN peacekeepers.

    That about does it. Let’s bash the Swiss now.

  139. Final Doom says:

    Gator (134)-

    Somebody should bust a cap on this guy before he runs your town even further into the ground.

  140. Final Doom says:

    Or, get this Fried jackass to bring back a big gang of young, healthy slaves to do some damn work around your town.

  141. Final Doom says:

    beer (135)-

    Christie should have all of them arrested and jailed indefinitely.

  142. willwork4beer says:

    #140 Doom

    Now, now Doomie…

    Switzerland starts with an “S”.

    Bored with the Belgians? How ’bout the Bulgarians?


  143. willwork4beer says:

    #143 Doom

    No televised executions?

    Damn. And I’ve got my beer and pork rinds ready to go…

  144. Final Doom says:

    beer (145)-

    Round up the NJ Supreme Court and torture them until they reverse Abbott and Mt. Laurel decisions.

  145. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [132] shore

    “taxpayers’ even”

    At the rate we are going, you may have been right the first time.

  146. jp says:

    Is it better to move to north jersey or right beyond the border to piermont, ny or new city area if you have a job in the city?

  147. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [148] jp

    Since you are in the city, and are fcuked taxwise, don’t let the income tax tail wag the dog.

    That’s the extent of my wisdom. The RE experts can weigh in.

  148. sas3 says:

    “Last time I took some popular global warming data and fit it to multiexponential function with 10 floating parameters, …”

    Climate and weather need a bit more than “curve fitting”. There are so many dependencies — it requires models based on underlying physics. Can you make some qualitative inferences using the data? Yes. Should one try to fit a curve (doesn’t matter it if has exponentials or sines) to data from a complex system? No.

    Also, 300% standard deviation may be good enough in some cases. More CO2 going into the environment, excessive deforestation, etc., will have to result in some changes.


  149. Juice Box says:

    re: #148 – I hope you like having your ass glued to your car seat, that commute sucks. Also in New City the Lubavitcher crowd mixed with the Haitian ex-pats makes for a real interesting Saturday night of people watching.

  150. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Your president on the economy and the GOP:

    “”We already know where their ideas led us,” he said. “And now we have a choice as a nation. We can return to the failed economic policies of the past, or we can keep building a stronger future.”

    That got me thinking: Did he really say that capitalism was a “failed economic policy”?

    Or so will go the Fox News headline.

  151. sas3 says:

    I find it a bit strange that many people that have strong opinions about population control do think anthropogenic global warming is not possible or likely. Overpopulation is probably much easier to reverse (via consensual, nonviolent, sane means of family planning — and not using Doom’s techniques) than climate change.

  152. Final Doom says:

    What’s wrong with my techniques?

  153. Outofstater says:

    Planet Earth will do just fine without any of us. It has existed for millions of years and probably will continue to do so. All the caterwauling about global warming is so species-centric! WE may die off, but the planet won’t. Species come and go…

  154. Knifecatcher-Painhrtz says:

    Don’t get me started on Bulgarians!

  155. Yikes says:

    Boston house for sale, with a catch … “whites Only”

  156. Mr Hyde says:


    now let’s not exterminate all the Bulgarians. I hear that they make great hitmen, very good with the wet work and dependable too

  157. Knifecatcher-Painhrtz says:

    Hyde – Yeah but their women smell like dead animals. Worked with one she had a profound stink!

  158. willwork4beer says:


  159. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [157] yikes

    A lot of brouhaha over nothing.

    Such provisions are in a lot of deeds, and the firm that posted the legal notice further posted that it was likely unenforceable.

    Way back when, the SCOTUS ruled that such covenants are unenforceable and void as against public policy. The verbiage gets carried from deed to deed cuz that is how conveyances are drafted, but it is meaningless.

  160. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [153] sas3

    “I find it a bit strange that many people that have strong opinions about population control do think anthropogenic global warming is not possible or likely.”

    Suddenly that Nompound property in northern Maine is looking a lot better.

  161. Mr Hyde says:


    yep population control would be much more effective, quicker to impliment and easier to accomplish. As a matter of fact it’s already been scheduled. WWIII. We only need to remove about 4-6 billion people.
    We could easily accomplish the task in 2-3 years with the existing conventional stockpiles. As a bonus you get a guarenteed economic boom for a decade or so after the operation is completed.

    Per our very own Al Gore, the Anglo Saxon illuminati have it all under control and moving along nicely

  162. Final Doom says:

    Bolivia. Cocaine, hitmen, collectivists, Evo Morales, inbreeding, bad soccer, brother can you spare a Bolivar?


  163. willwork4beer says:


  164. gary says:

    what about those Eye-talians?

  165. Shore Guy says:

    I always envisioned retiring at the Shore. Perhaps als having a place someplase also, but, retiring someplace east of Ocean Ave.

    At this point, I just don’t see it happening that way. The State’s debtload is so huge, and the towns have yet to come to grips with the need to SLASH spending, no decrease the rates of increasing budgets, that the prospects for outlandish tax increases leaves me unwilling to expose myself to the danger of runaway taxation.

    This weekend we took a drive into NY’s Finger Lakes. They are nice enough, but, again, the taxes are way too high. And, NY also seems to be redy to sink under its debt load. So, scratch off another prospect.

    Who here (assume that you are able to keep your job and not have to transfer) is set on retiring in NJ?

    Let’s say we do this in wide bands: 19-39, 40-60, above 60.

    Mrs. Shore and I are in the middle group and we are now in the NO camp.

  166. willwork4beer says:


    That has to wait until we get to the “I’s” or the “eye’s”.

    I don’t know, maybe we should ask Pat. This was her idea.

    But it does go a long way to proving that this blog is not Zionist or anti-semitic or racist.

    We pick on everyone equally.

  167. Shore Guy says:

    someplace, too.

  168. Shore Guy says:

    “what about those Eye-talians?”

    I dunno. At least in my family, things never worked out so well for anyone seriously fcuking with us. I expect the same was true with Nom’s.

    Ya might want to pick a different target.

  169. Shore Guy says:


    Blast this typing at traffic lights.

  170. Pat says:

    This Eye-talian hates the way people from North Jersey and upstate NY says Eye-talian.

    My husband is from Orange County and he still says Eye-talian after twelve years of me giving him the evil eye.

    Now, he just emphasizes it more.

  171. Pat says:

    Damn Irish.

  172. willwork4beer says:

    Skipped right to the “I’s”, did we?

    Crap. I was looking forward to trashing the Canadians…

  173. willwork4beer says:

    Damn those broke-ass Icelanders!

  174. gary says:


    Grandmother was from Bari, Grandfather was from Avelino. It sounded like they were speaking two different languages to each other. Not that the kids understood any of it, anyway. :)

  175. Shore Guy says:

    “sounded like they were speaking two different languages to each other. ”

    Ahhh, the secret to a long and happy marriage.

  176. Shore Guy says:

    So, Gary, Pat, are you set on retiring in NJ?

  177. Pat says:

    Oooh…you must be a dark one. Maybe not a short one, either.

    Me, I got two grandparents who came on the boat together from Calabria when she was 14.

  178. Pat says:

    Retiring in NJ? Maybe. I don’t think I’ll live that long. Bad genes.

    But my husband’s mother comes from Czech stock that lives to be at least a hundred, so his dream is to retire to the beach at 85.

  179. gary says:


    Me? Tall and dark? lol! Ask those here who met me! :)

  180. Al "Fat Thumbery" Gore says:


    This is the nompound I have my eyes on. 4 miles from the Canadian border. Trout stocked stream in the backyard. 6 acres and dirt cheap.


    Yes, the Anglo Saxon mission is almost here.

  181. Pat says:

    gary, funny. I’m short, blue-eyed and was blonde until I had a kid. Nobody believes I’m Eyetalian.

  182. gary says:


    Retire in NJ? My property taxes will be $40,000 per year at the current rising rate, I don’t think I can hack it.

  183. Final Doom says:

    Beer (165)-

    Bangladesh. Too much rain, bad George Harrison song, can’t get enough to eat, don’t get sarcasm, Pakistani lite, bad soccer, worse beer.

  184. I agree with much of what peoples comments are that I am reading here. I just wish there were a magic bullet for this.

  185. Mr Hyde says:

    The bot at 86 is F’ing hilarious given the topic of the evening!!!

  186. Mr Hyde says:

    bot at 186…

  187. Pat says:

    In succession, I watched Unthinkable and then Law Abiding Citizen.

    CC is like a combo pack of the two main characters.

    I kinda like his arrogance, but hope he can make nice when the time comes.

  188. gary says:

    So, I went to my Mother and said, “Momma, I have Italians and Chinese coming for dinner, what do I cook?” She said, “Put a message in the ravioli.”

  189. njescapee says:

    gary, 190 Momma is a very wise woman. fyi, my folks were from Bari too.

  190. Pat says:

    My mom wasn’t Italian but she converted when she married my dad at 18. She was the most Italian person I ever knew. Spoke Italian (at least she pulled it off pretty well), made meatballs the size of softballs, and hit us with the pasghetti spoon. She wore an apron.

  191. Confused in NJ says:

    Al “Fat Thumbery” Gore says:
    I like this one in the North Country;

  192. willwork4beer says:


    I had a Grandmother from Bari as well. This blog is too inbred. We’re probably cousins.

  193. Sas3 says:

    Talking about population control… My cousin (doc in India) had a lot of trouble during his rotation to a poorly developed region. When their group was going door to door to offer polio vaccines to kids, they were chased down by the local Muslim guys, because they believed that the vaccines were a ploy by the (Hindu) government to sterilize Muslim kids!


  194. gary says:


    I posted this here once before: We used to take the figs off the tree in my grandparents back yard. My grandmother used to slice them open, stuff them with crushed walnuts, fennel seeds and grated orange peel, then squeeze the figs together and bake them. It smelled unbelievably awesome and tasted like candy. Now, that’s Italian! Oh, and my grandfather had a grape vine growing the length of the yard which got turned into vino every year.

  195. gary says:

    Hey, it’s the Barese connection! Who woulda thunk it!

  196. Pat says:

    Sastry, stop giving Clot ideas.

    Gary, my fondest memories are of pulling off hundreds of the grape vines, loaded with almost-ripe grapes, wrapping them around my swingset to make a fort, and then getting the crap beaten out of me.

  197. gary says:


    I have plenty of stories, I’ll leave you with one more before I sign off: Thanksgiving, at the grandparents house, I was about 5 and all the cousins are there. Somebody, we still don’t know to this day, pulls the cork out of one of the wine barrels in the cellar. Gallons and gallons of wine on the floor… we all had to leave the house, no Thanksgiving! lol! That’s the quick version! :)

  198. Yikes says:

    ChiFi, comment at 48 might be your best work of all-time. bookmarked.

    2nd best comment of the day?

    Final Doom says:
    June 2, 2010 at 9:43 am

    When do the televised executions begin?


  199. Ben says:

    “Climate and weather need a bit more than “curve fitting”. There are so many dependencies — it requires models based on underlying physics.”

    A multiexponential function incorporates those dependencies, regardless of the fact that you have not identified them with a true physical meaning. Aside from that, they all represent growth (albeit different rates) in the same direction (up). With 4 floating exponentials, you can represent time scales spanning days to centuries and 4 exponentials would be enough to effectively fit or incorporate nearly all the processes related to the supposed increase in temperature.

    Can you make some qualitative inferences using the data? Yes. Should one try to fit a curve (doesn’t matter it if has exponentials or sines) to data from a complex system? No.

    “Also, 300% standard deviation may be good enough in some cases.”

    Good enough? 300% standard deviation is what you call meaningless data. Us respectable scientists try to aim for less than 1%.

    “More CO2 going into the environment, excessive deforestation, etc., will have to result in some changes.”

    Yes, but the impact of those changes has never been verified. Btw…I like to flaunt my education in Chemistry all the time on this site, but I also have a degree in Geological Sciences.

    The point of my post was, the data is so noisy, a fit function of multiple floating parameters wasn’t even able to verify that it wasn’t a decay rather than a growth. Temperature data that exists is way too noisy to extrapolate any meaningful conclusions. Anyone who tells you otherwise is a liar. That’s why the Climate gate guys had to fudge their data.

  200. NJCoast says:

    I visited Bari, does that count?

  201. Stu says:

    I’ve been to Wilkes-Barre.

  202. Sas3 says:

    Ben, would you trust any weather predictions based on curve fitting? Or, would you insist that they be based on physics and chemistry? Likewise, for pharmaceuticals, or combustion engines, or nuclear plants…

    Data are often very noisy, so a “first principles” based model, depending on the problem at hand, may be much more valuable even if its predictions are “worse off” than a curve fitting exercise. The good thing is new science can improve model predictions.

    Respectable scientists and “less than 1% error”? What predictive field are you talking about?

    In the case of climate change, there are issues of trends (just like seasonal variations of the house prices), and random fluctuations, so, at the risk of someone going fox news on me, the raw data need to be transformed to get some meaningful information.


  203. njescapee says:

    siamo tutti in famiglia

  204. Ben says:

    “Data are often very noisy, so a “first principles” based model, depending on the problem at hand, may be much more valuable even if its predictions are “worse off” than a curve fitting exercise. The good thing is new science can improve model predictions. ”

    There’s a difference between noisy data and noise that is of the same magnitude as the trend you are claiming. Think of it this way. I dare you to try to model the direction of the DJIA for the next 5 years on the the past 2 weeks of data. You can’t…and for good reason.

    The models you speak of are, as of now, completely useless and have no scientific merit at all. You can’t claim a trend when your noise exceeds the magnitude of the so called trend.

  205. Ben says:

    one more thing. What would you say about an election poll that said 50% +/- 45% of US citizens would reelect Obama in 2012?

    50% means nothing with a margin of error of 45%.

    Well, your temperature fluctuations meaning nothing as because the margin of error of the available data is over 100%.

  206. chicagofinance says:

    Final Doom says:
    June 2, 2010 at 6:32 pm
    beer (135)-Christie should have all of them arrested and jailed indefinitely.

    In support….

    Former Gov. Jon Corzine created the Judicial Advisory Panel with an executive order in 2006 to help vet Superior Court nominees, then appointed all the members who resigned today.

    “The members who resigned are entitled to their opinions, but not everyone shares their views, including others in the judiciary and legal community who recognize the governor’s constitutional prerogative and authority in this regard,” Drewniak said.

  207. chicagofinance says:

    My wife’s aunt pronounces the country IT-lee (2 syllables)….she also calls my daughter “ish-kah-bib-ls”…she is mix scottish and italian…what think you?

    Pat says:
    June 2, 2010 at 9:35 pm
    My mom wasn’t Italian but she converted when she married my dad at 18. She was the most Italian person I ever knew. Spoke Italian (at least she pulled it off pretty well), made meatballs the size of softballs, and hit us with the pasghetti spoon. She wore an apron.

  208. chicagofinance says:

    Stu says:
    June 2, 2010 at 10:48 pm
    I’ve been to Wilkes-Barre.

    I’ve been to Ray-Bari Pizza…

  209. Sas3 says:

    What data do you have on temperature trends that give a standard deviation of 100%? Of course, it depends on what the metric is? It looks a bit spurious — reinforced by your “scientists fudged the data” comment.

  210. brewcrew says:

    Did we completely skip the A’s? I am sure there are opinions on the Albanians…

  211. brewcrew says:

    John, where do I send my resume? Or do I meet you at the corner of the bar at Connolly’s sometime after 12? Not kidding.

  212. Sas3 says:


    A for Armenians.

    Given the current news — one former evildoer protesting a current evil act by a group that has been victim of unimaginable evil.

    Something I remembered from “The Unix Programming Environment” :)

    “Great fleas have little fleas upon their backs to bite ’em,
    And little fleas have lesser fleas, and so ad infinitum.
    And the great fleas themselves, in turn, have greater fleas to go on,
    While these again have greater still, and greater still, and so on.”


  213. borat obama says:

    Nuke them all

  214. borat obama says:


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