From Reuters (hat tip Juice):
At least 3 more years of housing troubles seen
The housing market will remain depressed, with record high foreclosure levels, rising mortgage rates and a glut of distressed properties dampening the market for years to come, industry experts predicted on Tuesday.
“We don’t see a full market recovery until 2014,” said Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac, a foreclosure marketplace and tracking service. He said that he expected more than 3 million homeowners to receive foreclosure notices in 2010, with more than 1 million homes being seized by banks before the end of the year.
Both of those numbers are records and expected to go even higher, as $300 billion in adjustable rate loans reset and foreclosures that had been held up by the robo-signing scandal work through the process. That should make the first quarter of 2011 even uglier than the fourth quarter of 2010, he said.
…
Mortgage rates will start to rise in 2011, further dampening demand and limiting affordability, said Pete Flint, chief executive of Trulia.com, a real estate search and research website. “Nationally, prices will decline between 5 percent and 7 percent, with most of the decline occurring in the first half of next year,” he said.
…
The two firms released a survey showing a marked deterioration in consumers’ views of the housing market, too. Almost half — 48 percent — said they’d consider walking away from their homes and their mortgages if they were underwater on their loans. That’s up almost 20 percent from when the same question was asked in May. “If that continues it would be an epidemic of strategic defaults,” said Flint.Roughly 1 in 5 consumers said they expect it to be 2015 before there is a recovery in housing, according to the survey, conducted in November by Harris Interactive. Most respondents said they think recovery will come in 2012 or 2013. Would-be buyers suggested they wouldn’t really get serious about purchasing a home for another two years.
Sharga sees a big glut in distressed properties hitting the market. There are about 5 million loans that are at least 60 days overdue, he said. In the next 12 to 15 months, another $300 billion in adjustable rate loans will reset, and “they will default at pretty high levels.”
Good Morning New jersey
From the WSJ:
Fannie, Freddie Pressed on Mortgages
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are in talks with Obama administration officials to join fledgling government programs aimed at reducing loan balances of mortgages where borrowers owe more than their homes are worth, according to people familiar with the situation.
An agreement with the two government-owned mortgage giants to write down so-called underwater loans could reduce the threat to the U.S. housing market from the glut of homeowners believed at risk of default should their personal finances or home prices worsen. A deal would deepen losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which already have cost taxpayers about $134 billion.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which own or guarantee about half of all first-lien mortgages in the U.S., have been highly reluctant to reduce loan balances, especially for borrowers who are still making payments.
The Obama administration is pressuring Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, through their primary regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The administration wants the firms to join a program run by the Federal Housing Administration that allows banks and other creditors, which agree to write down mortgages, to essentially hand off the reduced loans to the FHA.
Federal officials estimate that 500,000 to 1.5 million homeowners could benefit from the program—a fraction of the estimated 11 million borrowers who were underwater as of June 30, according to CoreLogic Inc. That figure represents about 23% of all U.S. households with a mortgage.
From HousingWire:
American homebuyers suffer from a crisis of faith: survey
A housing conference call organized by real estate listing websites, Trulia and RealtyTrac, revealed 48% of potential homebuyers in America have lost faith in the ability of the mortgage industry and 24% percent lost faith in the ability of the government to manage said market.
…
Pete Flint, chief executive of Trulia, said 58% of respondents don’t think the housing market will recover until after 2012. Some 22% expect the market to normalize in 2015.
“It’s hard to believe one in five Americans believe we are in for another five years of a depressed and volatile housing market,” he said. “But they do.”
housing is over .
From Calculated Risk:
Mortgage Rates rise sharply
[I]t’s been a complete bloodbath in the market for us. … Three rate sheets for the worse, an average 4.75% 1.0 point loan today, well up from the October lows of 3.750%. Crushing to say the least.
For those that weren’t watching the mortgage market yesterday, comments from the Mortgage Rate Blog:
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/186863.aspx
Franklin is up to their 4th rate sheet today
…
3rd price change for SunTrust. Also, 4th rate sheet today.
…
Black Tuesday anyone? I don’t even remember black Wednesday being this painful back in 2009
…
Chase retail 2nd reprice….
…
So do we retrace a little tomorrow or keep snowballing down?
…
Hey guys, this is Black Tuesday….we’re not going to see those rates below 4.25% until next year after this temporary jobs for the Holidays are over!!
Yield must be paid.
Number 3 22% that expect the market to normalize in 2015 ? What’s considered “normalized”?
20% gains a year, and everyone a millionaire, that’s the expected norm.
Rising interest rates and a release of the constricted flow of REO properties could combine for a very interesting bit of market pressure.
Sorry but national real estate analysis doesnt apply to the garden state. Its different here.
We have train towns.
My impression is that most people are like jj and would buy stock for 401k before paying utilities. You just can’t tank an economy built on that type of psyche.
– 5,000,000 loans 60 days overdue
– $300,000,000,000 in loans to adjust with the next 1.5 years which will default
– mortgage rates will start to rise in 2011
Dear Buyers, one more time: you see a house, you like the house, it’s in decent shape and in an area that you were targeting. You offer 80% of the asking price as your best and final offer. When the seller’s agent comes back and says their “client” is insulted, let them know your offer still stands but tell them that it’ll drop 1% of the asking price per month until the sellers accept.
Rising interest rates and a release of the constricted flow of REO properties could combine for a very interesting bit of market pressure.
You mean like one of those old rusty hand-cranked meat grinders?
Lamar (Previous Thread),
“Two forms in which the rotting fish collateral could be returned:
1. At par. As if.
2. Marked-to-market. John Q still loses.”
Lamar,
IB’s will buy back at the market, .10-.15/dollar. Subsequently, they will then price to their model, close to/at par and pay themselves a huge bonus.
You are correct, John Q gets hammered.
“Nationally, prices will decline between 5 percent and 7 percent”
how does that translate for the tri-state area? do we fare better then the nation or do we get a heavy dose of reality ?
Walmart stopping Sunday pay differential. Dollar less an hour for Sunday workers.
“My impression is that most people are like jj and would buy stock for 401k before paying utilities.”
Veto,
Get your impression out of your backside. 401k’s are being tapped for standard living expenses like never before. Then again, maybe not a bad idea before the govt gets their hands on it.
http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2010/08/more_workers_cite_hardship_as.html
tick…. tick…. tick… tick….
BEIJING (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar will be a safe investment for the next six to 12 months because global markets are focused on the euro zone’s troubles but America’s fiscal health is worse than Europe’s, an adviser to the Chinese central bank said on Wednesday.
Li Daokui, an academic member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee, said that U.S. bond prices and the dollar would fall when the European economic situation stabilized.
“For now, market attention is still on Europe and for the coming 6-12 months, it will not shift to the United States,” Li said, when asked about U.S. President Barack Obama’s plan to extend tax cuts for all Americans.
“But we should be clear in our minds that the fiscal situation in the United States is much worse than in Europe. In one or two years, when the European debt situation stabilizes, attention of financial markets will definitely shift to the United States. At that time, U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar will experience considerable declines.”
U.S. Treasury prices fell sharply for a second day on Wednesday as the proposed tax deal sparked concerns over the government’s ability to service its massive debt burden. Moody’s Investors Service said it is worried the tax cuts could become permanent, hurting U.S. finances and credit ratings in the long run
When bubbles bust the corresponding turn goes much longer and deeper than most can imagine. This will be one for the record books. Realtors will tell you that they can’t believe what a bargain is to be had. I say, I can’t believe where the bubble took this market.
It’s gonna be a long walk home.
%5 – 7% price drops – no job creation, a nation that is going deeper into dept, interest rates starting to increase, problems in Europe, Korea, Iran
Am I missing something or is this the perfect storm and are these analysts restraining their comments as to future decreasing in housing prices?
BTW – does John Taylor have creditiblity – he says recession starts mid-2011 – and I know many of you feel the first one has not ended but perhaps he means as opposed to small steps backwards perhaps some larger steps.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6B52NK20101206?loomia_ow=t0:s0:a49:g43:r3:c0.049054:b40082682:z0
WASHINGTON (AFP) – The United States has fallen from top of the class to average in world education rankings, said a report Tuesday that warned of US economic losses from the trend.
The three-yearly OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) report, which compares the knowledge and skills of 15-year-olds in 70 countries around the world, ranked the United States 14th out of 34 OECD countries for reading skills, 17th for science and a below-average 25th for mathematics.
[America’s smartest cities]
In Canada, 15-year-olds are more than one school year ahead of their US peers in math and more than half a school year ahead in reading and science, said the report released hours after President Barack Obama urged Americans not to rein in education spending, even in a tough economy.
The OECD report also noted that investment in education is paid back many times over.
Boosting US scores for reading, math and science by 25 points over the next 20 years would result in a gain of 41 trillion dollars for the United States economy over the lifetime of the generation born in 2010, the OECD said.
“Bringing the United States up to the average performance of Finland, the best-performing education system among OECD countries, could result in gains in the order of 103 trillion dollars,” said the report.
[Signs that the U.S. is Losing Influence]
“This is not to say that efforts should not be directed towards mitigating the short-term effects of the economic recession, but it is to say that long-term issues should not be neglected,” it said.
The first step towards helping the United States climb back up the education rankings to the top of the class would be to convince Americans “to make the choices needed to show that (they) value education more than other areas of national interest,” the report said.
Currently, 18 percent of US 15-year-olds do not reach an OECD-set level of of reading proficiency, compared to 10 percent in China-Shanghai and Hong Kong, which are compared with countries because of the size of their populations, said the report.
The United States has also fallen behind in the percentage of 15-year-olds who are enrolled in school, ranking third from bottom of the OECD countries, above only Mexico and Turkey.
Only eight OECD countries have a lower high school graduation rate than the United States, and in college education, the United States slipped from second to 13th between 1995 and 2008 — not because US college graduation rates declined, but because they rose so much faster in other OECD countries.
“These developments will be amplified over the coming decades as countries such as China and India raise their educational output at an ever-increasing pace,” the report said, stressing the need for Americans to invest in education.
Interesting, the more Salary & Benefits given to teachers, the dumber the students are?
decreasing = decreases
“it’s been a complete bloodbath in the market for us. … Three rate sheets for the worse, an average 4.75% 1.0 point loan today, well up from the October lows of 3.750%. Crushing to say the least.”
JB [5],
Since the fed announcement in early Nov, the 10 year rate has increased by more than 30%. Bergabe must be spinnig. Hurry up, time for QE3, 4, 5, etc… It’s QE till infinity. Just wait for the state bailouts. It will make the IB’s look like a practice run.
Was talking with an agent yesterday about the state of the market. Guy has been in the biz about 40 years. Says he has super motivated sellers and no matter how fast they reduce their prices, the listings just don’t sell. His feeling is “there is almost no market in Bergen County for homes over $600,000”.
18. Good one bc. Did you copy and paste that from 2008?
Veto [27],
Copy and paste what? The 401k article was from 8/10.
Grim Number 9 ooh a fairytale ending
Until we overthrow our bankster overlords and their political lackeys, we will be permanently stuck in 2008.
Look at Japan. Two decades, frozen in umber.
Not necessarily referring to articles either
The water is rushing in while the band played on.
His feeling is “there is almost no market in Bergen County for homes over $600,000″.
Might have more to do with the market of $600k homes being filled with homes that are worth $400k.
I can’t wait to see our male population just give up and become nancy boy girlie men.
http://jezebel.com/5395068/japans-girly-men-choose-cakes-over-consumerism
Minyanville > Markets
Wasn’t QE2 Supposed to Make Rates Lower?
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/quantitative-easing-qe2-james-kostohryz-money/12/3/2010/id/31505?camp=syndication&from=yahoo
“It’s now becoming clear what I had been emphasizing prior to the implementation of QE2: The Fed is not really in control of US interest rates.”
Masculinity died the day Tonka stopped making trucks in steel.
Liz Edwards reset my office deadpool yet again.
Help me out guys: do I take Assange or Vigoda?
grim (37)-
Thank God we still have firearms.
stu (36)-
So you got a Jones for Vegas that’s so bad, you were willing to endure an arse-reaming from a 275 lb, bacon rind-fueled domin@trix in blue latex gloves that had already touched the groins of the twelve people ahead of you?
And all the TSA geeks around you were getting off watching her fondle your onions?
Think I’ll stay home this Xmas.
#34 Grim – There is no doubt about the disconnect between asking prices and reality.
I suspect that buyers over $600,000 are opting for better towns rather than lesser town and more house. Seeing a pattern of mid level Bergen communities with very few sales above the $500 – $600,000 range.
Any buying activity now is the RE equivalent of the consumptive’s death rattle.
My observation is that the 450-650 range is largely void of any value whatsoever.
Many buyers I’ve worked with are seeing significantly better value above this price range. In fact, most remark that it would be significantly cheaper for them to buy in the higher price range, than in the lower, which would require a significant amount of work to bring the home to the same standards.
Pretty common to see a mid six expanded cape, with small rooms, no closets, next to a mid seven colonial with larger rooms, more baths, additional rooms, etc. You simply can’t improve the latter for the price difference. The more expensive hone us clearly the better deal.
Veto [32],
I was just referencing your moronic statement that most will invest in their 401K before paying utilities. Why anyone would have to backtrack to 2008 to respond to an asinine statement like that is beyond me?
By the way, what’s the avg 401K account, around 40K?
“I suspect that buyers over $600,000 are opting for better towns rather than lesser town and more house. Seeing a pattern of mid level Bergen communities with very few sales above the $500 – $600,000 range.”
this is true for me. i’ve been shopping for almost a year. 4 offer failed because i was outbid in ridgewood and north caldwell. i’m still holding for 1 of these towns.
I love when everyone is negative on one asset class and positive on another. It offers perfect conditions to arbitrage.
am i being unrealistic for hoping to buy a million home for 800-850k?
Its time for Ben to start talking about QE 3 or the wheels might fall of the wagon.
Bc. I’ve never known you to be defensive and hostile. What gives? Did you just learn about the bid ask spread on those gold chips?
Or just generally frustrated about missing the huge equity rally due to an overly negative outlook?
jase (48)-
Depends. Are you trying to get tomorrow’s price today?
“am i being unrealistic for hoping to buy a million home for 800-850k?”
veto (51)-
Doubtful BC got very juicy over the biggest pump/dump in history. Like many other manias, equities are oh, so easy to get into. But getting out? Whoops; doors barred shut.
million homes should be in the 500/600k range ,maybe
Veto,
You’re right, you did not deserve that. Just having fun with you.
Didn’t miss it; been long the leading sectors. It’s a market of stocks not a stock market.
Going to be lots of talk about the 10 year.
(52)
lamar,
or atleast today’s price. i feel as if these sellers are ignorant. some of these homes i do not value them anywhere near a million mark.
Veto,
Probably getting awnry since I put my boots on.
ten year rising, no BAB extension, munis getting hammered and states need financing. The contagion has spread. QE3 should be about buying long term state GO munis.
35.Lamar Asperger says:
December 8, 2010 at 8:33 am
I can’t wait to see our male population just give up and become nancy boy girlie men
I think Arnold in California, sadly, has become one!
JJ [59],
The state bailouts/munis coming will make QE1 & QE2 seem like peanuts.
Both of you please educate me. I only know the theoretical workings of posting collateral.
JP Morgan gives Bergabe dead fish wrapped in newspaper and rubber bands with $500M written on it. In return JPM received $500M in UST. JPM is on the hook to give Bergabe back his $500M in UST at somepoint. Even if the fish degrades to pulp, the handout is the fact that Bergabe accepted the fish…when he did…and continues to accept it without qualification. Eventually though JPM NEEDS TO GIVE HIM $500M of UST….so other than credit enhancement (I know…big if) , where is the handout?
Mr Wantanapolous says:
December 8, 2010 at 7:48 am
Lamar (Previous Thread),
“Two forms in which the rotting fish collateral could be returned:
1. At par. As if.
2. Marked-to-market. John Q still loses.”
Lamar,
IB’s will buy back at the market, .10-.15/dollar. Subsequently, they will then price to their model, close to/at par and pay themselves a huge bonus.
You are correct, John Q gets hammered.
So Ben needs to get back into another 1 trillion worth of mbs and add in another half trillion of municipal bonds while monetizing another trillion + next year. What could go wrong?
“Get your impression out of your backside. 401k’s are being tapped for standard living expenses like never before”
BC,
Saddly, there is likely much truth to this. It is a path to nowhere. On the otherhand, folks who have lost faith in the system itself and are not at all sure that the money they have saveed will have any real value years from now, I understanda desire to pull out the cash now and spend it, while it is worth something. We keep tossing six-figures into retirement accounts every year and wonder would we be better off just spending it, at least on something that will provide long-term quality of life benefits.
re: #60- Fed said another 6 years of High Unemployment did they not? You only need to look at Japan and see what a decade or two of high unemployment/underemployment and low wages will do to Men.
“Grass-eaters” by contrast, are uncompetitive and uncommitted to work, a symptom of their epic disillusionment with Japan’s troubled economy. “People who grew up in the bubble era (of the 1980s) really feel like they were let down. They worked so hard and it all came to nothing,” says Ms Ushikubo. “So the men who came after them have changed.”
In Japan they have TV shows dedicated to this phenom. Millions remain at home as “parasite singles”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/japans-generation-xx-1704155.html
At least when the USG abuses people in the guise of the TSA, one gets felt up a bit. When the USG abuses people in the guise of the Treasury Department, one just gets bent over a straight-backed chair and there isn’t even a kiss as a prelude to the abuse.
Bruuuuuuuuccccccccccccceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee. The people need a Christmas show.
As the Dave Clark Five said, it would make us feel Glad All Over.
re: # 62 – There are haircuts applied in the repo and reverse repos, both directions. Repos and reverse repos are conducted with primary dealers via auction. Repurchase agreements are made at the initiative of the trading desk at the New York Fed A.K.A. “The Desk”. The Desk selects winning propositions on a “competitive basis” for UST and MBS.
Can anyone dig up data on Reverse Repos?
“Grass-eaters” by contrast, are uncompetitive and uncommitted to work
Is vegetar
Is vegetarianism in Japan common, or is it like some protest statement?
I know a few hyper-competitive and cruel vegetarians.
64.
I know a few people that took the penalty on their 401ks. I plan on it as well. If I have a slow year next year Ill dump it.
sas3- not vegan. Momma’s boys.
Google videos of “soshoku-danshi”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdrF_dAaZO4
re #73 – my 401k is up 20% this year. Too bad I cannot take the money out for decades.
Its ok honey. I generally yield to those with bigger brains than me anyway.
Just consider my dry attempts of sarcasm to be retard bait and you will no longer feel the overwhelming desire to pile drive me.
Now for a garage rock break:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TC0t4BaI6S8&feature=related
64.Shore Guy says:
December 8, 2010 at 9:49 am
We keep tossing six-figures into retirement accounts every year and wonder would we be better off just spending it, at least on something that will provide long-term quality of life benefits.
SIX FIGURES!!??? Please call me :)
At 2:30 is the “money” point on this video. Interesting juxtaposition to the MC5
(kind of like Olivia Newton John following Iggy Pop):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTOvHcDWNkg&feature=related
77.chicagofinance says:
December 8, 2010 at 10:36 am
SIX FIGURES!!??? Please call me :)
Assuming there is not a decimal point ;-)
And now for something completely different… Jon Stewart.
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-december-7-2010/the-big-bank-theory
A little QE, a little Bernanke, some beard talk and fun with money.
Chifi,
In the end, it will probably do us as much good as if we had spent it on happy meals.
8 figures with a decimal point. Ohh, i LIKE the sound of that — eight-figure earners.
Oh!? What is that I feel? Who is feeling around in my front pockets? Oh, it is just the IRS.
I don’t see why the big fuss rates are going up. It benefits a lot of people.
Old people who rely on CDs, savings accounts.
People who buy savings bonds to give to kids for college education
People with fixed income portfolios of bonds who hold to maturity can re-invest their interest payments in higher yielding bonds
People saving for a house who want to put down a large down payment. Double Plus earn extra interest on house savings and higher interest makes home prices fall.
People in general who are afraid of stocks and long term bonds who keep most of their money in the bank.
Who does it hurt?
The underwater mortgage crowd with an adjustable mortgage who can’t refinance who are praying rates are still low where their mortgage next adjusts.
People with long term zero interest bonds.
The carry trade crowd who are borrowing cheap to invest in higher yielding assets
Our state and local govts who now have to spend more to borrow.
People looking to sell their home
People looking to borrow money
It seems the higher rates hurts the borrowers and the gamblers a lot but benefits the savers.
Re: TSA fondling
Got felt-up last week by TSA in Philly. Most fondling I’ve had in weeks. Check this out: all the millions spent on the new see-through machines and my travel companion went through security without going through the machine OR a pat down. The lines were unusually short of travelers so it can’t be blamed on volume. I was in total disbelief but didn’t say a word. Security my ass!!
“travel companion”?
Orion says:
December 8, 2010 at 11:27 am
Re: TSA fondling
Got felt-up last week by TSA in Philly. Most fondling I’ve had in weeks. Check this out: all the millions spent on the new see-through machines and my travel companion went through security without going through the machine OR a pat down. The lines were unusually short of travelers so it can’t be blamed on volume. I was in total disbelief but didn’t say a word. Security my ass!!
“Security my ass!!”
Orion,
After your government grope, at least the nation was safe from threats posed by youe @ss. Bye the way, which are you, male or female?
The Titanic – Why Did People Believe The Titanic Was Unsinkable?
Maybe people should start carrying in their underwear paper money, credit cards, condom packages, and other items legal to transport through security . After setting off the machines it would require a grope. And, then the TSA folks would need to feel all the stuff travelers had been keeping, um, close at hand, as it were.
chi (62)-
You also have to work in the probability that JPM sold the 500mm UST back to Bergabe & Eraserhead (at a premium, natch). Then, assume that they are taking that 500mm+ in cash (which is still collateralized by rotting fish on FedCo’s balance sheet), putting it to work in buying more UST or trading their asses off and churning even more gain off what was essentially a free handout of money.
When it comes time to buy the rotting fish back, JPM will gladly do so…even at par. They will then mark it to par on their own balance sheet, declare bonuses and thumb their noses at all us suckers.
http://realestate.msn.com/article.aspx?cp-documentid=26601873>1=35006
The 5 worst markets
While the U.S. overall is expected to see a 1% drop in home prices next year, according to LMM, these markets — with a population of 400,000 or more — should fare worst. (Hint: It’s looking like dark times for the Sunshine State.)
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.: The average home price is predicted to drop a whopping 11% over the next year from the average actual home price of $146,234 at the end of the third quarter.
Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.: A 7% decline from the average actual home price of $139,734.
Orlando-Kissimmee, Fla.: A 7% decline from the average actual home price of $180,900.
Boise-Nampa, Idaho: A 7% drop from the $162,016 average at the end of the third quarter.
Reno-Sparks, Nev.: Down 7% from $188,286.
The 5 best markets
And which areas did LMM pinpoint as having the best prospects for buyers in 2011? (Don’t get too excited. The good news here isn’t great, but it’s better than the alternative.)
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif.: The average price in this boom-and-bust market is predicted to increase 1% over the next year from the average actual home price of $336,679 at the end of the third quarter.
Oklahoma City: Homeowners here will be OK, with an increase of 1% in 2011, from an average of $156,948.
Tulsa, Okla.: No risk here: Prices will stay flat next year at $151,384.
Cincinnati-Middletown, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.: Ditto for this area: Prices will remain flat, at $175,347.
Lexington-Fayette, Ky.: This is a market at bottom: Prices here will decline about 1% from the average actual home price $183,084.
With apologies to Paul Revere and the Raiders:
Im hungry for a millstone mortgage
I’m Hungry through and through
Well I’m hungry for indebted life baby
So I can get bailed out like you
#35 Lamar,
28 yr old Japanese trophy wives for everyone. Hey they have experience dealing with economic meltdowns and kicking the can down the road.
If anyone needs a laugh:
US to host World Press Freedom Day
The United States has announced plans to host World Press Freedom Day in 2011 as part of its efforts “to support and expand press freedom and the free flow of information in this digital age.”
Safe 93,
I hear that the trophy Japanese wife comes with a free FX account as well?
Schab 94
The web has decentralized the press to the point that the blogosphere is more effective then the press at providing timely and accurate information that isnt filtered for a specific group. The MSM is in about the same position as the recording industry.
Tax Appeals Swamp U.S. Cities, Towns as Property Prices Plunge
…
In many states, property-tax appeals are handled primarily at the local level.
Clark County, Nevada, which includes Las Vegas, had 8,300 appeals last year, an increase from 6,000 the year before and 1,900 in 2008, according to Rocky Steele, assistant director of assessment services.
“It was a big year, the biggest we’ve ever had,” Steele said in a telephone interview.
Losing Hand
Clark County’s taxable real-estate value fell to $184 billion for the 2010-11 fiscal year from $263 billion the prior year and the record $320 billion in 2008-09, according to Steele. The one-year reduction will cost the county a projected $514 million in lost taxes. Almost all the hotel casinos and major property owners received reductions, Steele said.
In Atlantic City, where 11 casinos account for 74 percent of the property-tax base, the city has exhausted a reserve for tax appeals that in 2006 held $26 million, according to a Nov. 4 Moody’s report on the rating cut. The company reduced the credit to Baa1, three levels above speculative grade, from A1.
All Atlantic City casinos have pending property-tax appeals, Moody’s said. Since their valuation is based on gambling revenue, which has declined more than 11 percent this year, appeals may continue, the rating company said.
Resort Under Pressure
“The city’s negative fund balance position, outstanding tax casino credits and the significant number of remaining unsettled casino tax appeals will continue to pressure the city’s financial position,” Moody’s said in the report.
New Jersey homeowners filed 18,147 property-tax appeals in Tax Court during the fiscal year ending June 30, up from 10,067 in fiscal 2007, according to a report by the state judiciary.
Moody’s today cited continuing tax appeals when it lowered the rating on about $3.7 million in outstanding debt for the Borough of Roseland, New Jersey, to fourth-highest Aa3 from Aa2.
A reserve fund for tax appeals in the town about 20 miles (32 kilometers) east of New York City may fall to $600,000 this year from $3.5 million in 2007, and the borough may issue bonds to handle future appeals, Moody’s said in the report.
…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-08/plunging-home-prices-fuel-property-tax-appeals-swamping-u-s-cities-towns.html
Clot (40):
“275 lb, bacon rind-fueled domin@trix”
Nope, second time in a row I managed to fulfill my lusting for homo jungle fever.
Chi,
You are kidding right? They not only got $500M in treasuries. They got $500M in treasuries which they could then sell and use to purchase assets of value that were being dumped into the market on others margin calls and attempts to get liquid.
Japanese women are funny. Husband could lose life savings and they will serve him tea, say nothing, open and FX trading account and earn it back before he wakes up.
safe as houses says:
December 8, 2010 at 12:17 pm
#35 Lamar,
28 yr old Japanese trophy wives for everyone. Hey they have experience dealing with economic meltdowns and kicking the can down the road.
TIPS
Hey my newspaper guy is looking for a tip, left a card with an envelope, how much should I give. No clue who he is paper is just thrown on lawn from a car in middle of the night.
Also what do you guys do for teachers, out on Long Island the Class Mom looks for money in public school and parents with kids in CCD also give, additionally parents give coffee mugs, cookies, gift cards, starbucks/DD cards/Kohls etc. ,
I personally don’t know why Public School teachers get gifts for doing their job, the CCD teacher volunteers so I see that. Also public school teacher has input into who your kids gets next year and if he/she is eligible for advanced placement class. Seems a huge conflict of interest. Also working moms children get stigmitized as they can’t be at school volunteering all the time. Even mail man is looking for money.
10 year at 3.31.
Wowzers.
Governor Chris Christie returned to his hometown of Livingston today to pitch support for his tax reform plan and urged the legislature to pass bills that would limit public pensions and require public employees to pay a larger share of their health insurance costs.
He called the current system of employees picking up 1½ percent of the costs of their health insurance “unsustainable” and said health insurance for public employees is currently underfunded by $67 billion.
The governor said his proposal would require public employees to pay 30 percent of the cost of their premiums. “I want people to have health insurance, I want them to have good health insurance, I want them to have what they can afford,” he said.
http://montclair.patch.com/articles/governor-christie-in-livingston-pitches-for-reforms
2010 meets 1210:
http://lolsnaps.com/upload_images/real/1138.jpg
I only tip for good service. I stopped tipping the mail carriers when they stopped sorting the mail between my box and those of my tenants. Both boxes are clearly labeled with the names of all of us. When the garbage men stop tossing my cans in front of my driveway ramp forcing me to get out of my car to get up the driveway, they too will receive a tip. My son’s teacher is absolutely awesome (she better be after 4o or so years of teaching). I doubt she needs any more mugs (or anything seeing that she clears 6 figures). Nonetheless, we will probably give her a gift card in the $50 range to maintain the preferential treatment. Plus, she deserves it. There are a lot of po’ folk in these parts.
Captain cheapo is not cheap with tips. I always give 20% if it is deserved. Some times 25. If you suk, don’t expect to be rewarded for it.
(87) Shore
Pat
Stu,
Even people who suck at their jobs need a little consideration this time of year.
Besides, many of them know where you live.
And when you leave.
What is interesting is hotel door men in NY. The Union contract pays them a very nice wage, and at a couple bucks a bag all day long, they can bring in a couple hundred grand a year, much of it cash.
should say over a hundred grand a year
Now THIS is a tip:
http://johnnie-walker-blue.1-877-spirits.com/
I know what my sanitation guys are paid. We are not privatized. They will have a better retirement than I. They look for fines before they take your trash. Garbage too heavy, someone dropped a poopy bag in the recycling when walking their dog, garbage can has water in the bottom (drill holes), etc. I look out for the little guy. I once was one. Though I will never reward laziness. Our town pays the trash collectors by route, not by time. If they can do their job in two hours, they still get paid for eight. They don’t simply collect the refuse on the block, they actually try to recreate New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina.
By the way, I’ve noticed that New York Penn has become the Port Authority of the seventies. It’s essentially a homeless shelter these days. I dare any of you to step inside the NJT waiting area on the 7th Avenue concourse. Now if we just found a cure for the AIDS, we’d all be sporting afros and having unprotected seks with each other.
Today’s 30-year conforming mortgage with excellent credit. 4.75% with 0.081 points. Goodbye housing market.
I parked cars at a Hotel for weddings back in the 1980s for cash tips.
Ranked from cheapest to best tippers.
1) Hasidim (no tips at all and ran over orange cones to avoid the parking attendants.)
2) Irish – plenty of loose change few bills
3) Greeks – you felt lucky to get a dollar
4) Run of the mill WT – anywhere from $1-3
5) Celebrity/Athlete $2-$5 or in a few cases Zero. Lawrence Taylor stiffed me a couple of times and this was when he was making $50k a week.
6) Goomba – $5-$100 depending on how lit up they were after the wedding.
7) Father of the Bride (More than once a $100 tip per parking attendant, we even made up names of attendants that weren’t even working to get extra tips from them.)
Needless to say I used to call up the Hotel before the wedding to find out what the names of the wedding parties were before I decided to work that night. Parking cars was boring, but quick easy cash. An hour of running around and 4 hours of nothing. One of the Hotels I parked cars at was in Woodcliff lake on a dead end street. On occasion we would race a corvette against a porche and a couple of times we took out LT’s purple 9/11 slant nose to the local pizzeria for a slice.
I will tip at least 20% in restaurants I frequent, always tip good at places your frequently eat you never want to be known as a cheapo to restaurant staff.
Now how does one score this in the Montclair school drug bust pool? It’s within a half mile of the new $31M Bullock school, but much closer to our Glenfield Middle School. I had cr@ck in the pool for the next arrest at Bullock. Am I still in it? Or does this h@roin bust knock me out?
Arrest: More H@roin Near Montclair School
Wednesday, Dec 08, 2010 10:57am | COMMENTS (8)
This just in from the Montclair Police:
On 12/07/10 at approximately 7:00 pm, detectives pulled over a red Saturn in the area of Maple Avenue and Elmwood Avenue after seeing it fail to stop at a stop sign at Willowdale Avenue and Lincoln Street. Upon approaching the vehicle, detectives observed that the vehicle was occupied by three subjects with an odor of an alcoholic beverage coming from the vehicle. During the course of the investigation, a cup containing alcohol was located in the cup holder which the rear passenger stated he was drinking. The rear passenger, a 26 year old man from East Orange, was asked out of the vehicle and also found to have four glassine envelopes of h@roin. The driver and front passenger were released at the scene.
The man was arrested and charged with possession and distribution of h@roin, distribution of h@roin within one thousand feet of Glenfield School and distribution of h@roin within five hundred feet from Glenfield park. The suspect is being held on a bail of $5,000 and is scheduled to be sent to the Essex County jail.
http://www.baristanet.com/2010/12/arrest-more-h@roin-near-montclair-school/#comment-245469
Chifi – Here you go some good Trups for you that Citi Recommended buying this morning. Put your research hat on.
METLIFE INC 6.400 12/15/2036 12/15/2031 JR SUB Yes Baa2 BBB 97.46 6.61 6.63 6.57 Insurance
JPM CHASE CAP XXVII 7.000 11/1/2039 JR SUB Yes A2 BBB+ 100.76 6.94 6.95 Financial Serv.
GENERAL ELEC CAP 6.375 11/15/2067 11/15/2017 SUB Yes Aa3 A+ 99.98 3.55 6.38 6.38 Financial Serv.
COUNTRYWIDE CAP V CFC B 7.000 11/1/2036 11/1/2011 TRuPS Yes Baa3 BB 24.04 7.40 12.52 7.34 7.28 Financial Serv.
PROTECTIVE LIFE CORP PL D 7.250 6/30/2066 6/30/2011 JR SUB Yes Ba1 BBB 27.00 6.79 -4.40 6.80 6.71 Insurance
CAPITAL ONE CAP II COF B 7.500 6/15/2066 6/15/2011 E-TRuPS Yes Baa3 BB 25.00 7.64 11.09 7.64 7.50 Financial Serv.
LINCOLN NATIONAL CORP LNC G 6.750 4/20/2066 4/20/2011 JR SUB Yes Ba1 BBB 27.00 6.29 -12.07 6.31 6.25 Insurance
MORGAN STANLEY CAP VI MSJ 6.600 2/1/2046 2/1/2011 TRuPS Yes Baa2 BBB 25.49 6.51 -2.15 6.54 6.47 Financial Serv.
NATL CITY CAP TR II NCC A 6.625 11/15/2036 11/15/2011 TRuPS Yes Baa2 BBB 25.97 6.35 2.89 6.41 6.38 Banks
New regulatory reform (Frank-Dodd Act in the US and Basel III in Europe) lends support to this part of the capital
structure. We expect the impact on TRuPS and foreign hybrid issues that are no longer receiving Tier 1 credit to
be minimal. The legislation on both Frank-Dodd and Basel III doesn’t begin to take effect until 2013, and includes
extensive phase-in periods (3 years for Frank-Dodd and 10 years for Basel III). This should allow for smooth
transitions as most of the issues affected will have breached their call dates.
Hybrid debt remains an attractive source of high current yield, although principal gains will be modest from
here, in our view. Attractive yields (to call) still exist in the trust preferred (TRuPS) market, and there is an
increased likelihood of redemptions due to the removal of Tier 1 capital status. Similar to our recommendation on
high-grade corporate debt, we favor US banks compared to European issuers, due to the risks that remain in
the Eurozone periphery and the potential impact on the banking system.
Also Citi said the Ten year US Treasury is a buy today!
In the US, a slow and protracted economic recovery, QE2, sluggish job growth, and concerns about the
Eurozone periphery, are expected to keep Treasury rates low. Indeed, market expectations for tighter
monetary policy have moved into 2012. The yield curve remains exceptionally steep – the spread between 2-year
and 30-year Treasuries is approaching the historical high of 390 basis points reached in November. We maintain
a long duration bias and currently favor 10-year debt, which offers the best relative value, in our view.
Shore [111];
$225 a fifth? Pass.
That’s one thing I miss about living close to the Canadian border – duty free liquor. Molson Export; top shelf vodkas 25-35% off; Blue Label was $120, $150 max. Even better before Uncle Ben figured out you don’t even need black helicopters to debase the currency. Now the greenback is about par with the monopoly money north of the border (comment on color, not value).
JuiceBox I take the cab to the airport a lot and the rules are everyone gets at least one out of town trip a shift, good money, everyone gets at least one airport call, good money and the finally rule everyone has to pick up at least one NTN a day, I love when the NTN call would come in and I hear like the dispatcher saying I know you are our there someone answer to pick up NTN, or everyone already got one NTN and they are arguing who gets stuck with the second NTN.
bi says:
March 12, 2009 at 8:54 am
waiting for dow to 4500 is equivalent to waiting for dow 45000 in 2000. good luck.
I locked my 30yr refi yesterday at 4.5% thank goodness.
Bernanke says QE2 isn’t printing money it is just buying bonds to drive down yields. Well, 10 yr has shot up from 2.6% to over 3% since the announcement. Sell on the news as usual.
BTW what was the low of the year in 2010 that you could get a 30 year with no points. Wasn’t it like something crazy like 3.75% for a day or two.
3.75 was the best rate I saw.
‘Robin Hood’ Banker Gets 63-Month Sentence
A man described in Chicago media as a “Robin Hood” banker was sentenced today to 63 months in prison for his fraudulent activities at a local bank.
Jeffrey Gonsiewski, formerly the vice president of the loan department at First Security Trust & Savings Bank in suburban Elmwood Park, pled guilty to the charge of bank fraud in August. District Judge Elaine Bucklo handed down the sentence on Tuesday.
According to the FBI, Gonsiewski “altered loan documents to make it appear that customers’ payments were current when he knew they were actually overdue, which prevented the bank from taking timely action to collect delinquent loans and protect its assets.”
In other words, when his clients were underwater with their mortgages, he told the bank they were up-to-date in order to buy them more time to pay, keeping First Security from “protecting its assets” by foreclosing on their houses. His actions cost the bank, part of the sprawling Wirtz family empire, $5.5 million.
http://chicagopressrelease.com/news/robin-hood-banker-gets-63-month-sentence
I’ll bet a lot of people who thought that they were getting a 4.0% mortgage at the low either didn’t close the loan or ended up with a higher % when it came time to sign.
Silly little banker, mark-to-make-believe only works on Wall Street.
Even sillier people borrowing at 4.5% to buy an asset expected to fall 1-3% a year.
I don’t understand why there’s all this pessimism. O is going to save us all. Just as soon as Timmay teaches him to use some tax software.
Question for jj (and all who care to speculate):
How many percentage points do you see long term Treasury yields (currently around 4.3%) rising from here? Will muni yields revert to their traditional relationship with Treasury yields (i.e. muni yield < Treasury yield because of the muni bond tax advantage), or will muni yields rise right along with Treasury yields?
Muni’s now that triple AAA mono-line insured credit ratings no longer exist have default risk. Treasuries do not have default risk. (yea yea don’t laugh)
Additionally, Munis have liquidity risk. Munis also have very poor financials, some are over a year old when you buy the bond. Munis also have pricing risk. Some CUSIPs for munis only trade two or three times, hard to tell you are getting the right price.
I think given the default risk, liquidity risk and pricing risk we won’t see munis trading below the treasury rate too often. Sure a short term GO bond of a solid state (No NJ or CA etc) may have a lower rate than a comparable Treasury. But stuff like Shea Stadium Munis etc are really stinkers for default risk.
No view on how many % points 30-year Treasury yields will rise in the next 12 months?
No individual investor should be buying 30 year treasuries. They are really ment for insurance companies and pension plans to match future obligations. The ten year will most like be at a high in the short term these last few weeks of year. May not reach that yield again until 2012.
an AAA muni 30 year muni on average can be had for 4.62 percent. If you take on slight more risk in an A or AAA 30 year muni you can get 5.2-5.7%, a heck of a lot more than a taxable treasury
Zhang Fei says:
December 8, 2010 at 4:25 pm
No view on how many % points 30-year Treasury yields will rise in the next 12 months?
Underwriters led by Goldman, Sachs & Co today priced a $1.85 billion offering of federally taxable turnpike revenue bonds from the New Jersey Turnpike Authority sold as Build America Bonds with a yield of 7.102 percent on a single 2041 maturity priced at par, according to a pricing schedule.
Nice yield
Jenny Vrentas of the Newark Star Ledger reports former Jets practice squad player Keith Fitzhugh turned the team down when he was asked to sign and fill the Jets need at defensive back .
“I told them I’m very thankful for the opportunity,” Fitzhugh said. “But right now, being that it would be for just a couple weeks, I feel that I’d rather stay with a secure company and job, somewhere I know I could have long-term employment.”
Fitzhugh is a conductor for the Norfolk Southern railroad, a job he has held since he was released by the Jets on Sept. 4. He said several times he is thankful for his job and enjoys it.
“Being unemployed is not a good feeling,” Fitzhugh said. “It’s a lonely feeling. I’d rather be somewhere safe and have a great foundation
128. Partisan kidding aside. This is a great time to be either a nihilist or a true believer.
Well then, the CEO over at Toll says the worst in housing is over and things will start to improve.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-08/toll-brothers-ceo-sees-nascent-rebound-in-u-s-home-sales-as-worst-over.html
Thanks. Insightful as always…
JJ says:
December 8, 2010 at 4:58 pm
Underwriters led by Goldman, Sachs & Co today priced a $1.85 billion offering of federally taxable turnpike revenue bonds from the New Jersey Turnpike Authority sold as Build America Bonds with a yield of 7.102 percent on a single 2041 maturity priced at par, according to a pricing schedule.
Nice yield
This site again ahead of the curve.
Killer in the Attic: EPA Still Evades Zonolite Warnings
http://www.aolnews.com/killer-in-the-attic/article/epa-still-evading-warning-public-about-asbestos-tainted-zonolite-insulation/19750684?
“Will the people in the cheaper seats clap your hands? And the rest of you, if you’ll just rattle your jewelry. ”
John Lennon
juice (114)-
My first job in NYC was parking cars at the River Cafe. Best ride I ever had was taking Doug Williams’ Ferrari out on the BQE and opening up. I felt kinda bad when he tossed me $75 as he left.
Also cashed a big bet on the Skins the year he won the Super Bowl with them. He was always one of my favorite football players.
Banks foreclosing the wrong homes!!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40571573/ns/business-us_business/
gator (115)-
They should name the street that goes between the two schools Speedball Way.
yo (141)-
Those are the homes that Moose really wants to buy. Moving into one of those babies will really satisfy his urge to win the zero sum game.
“Banks foreclosing the wrong homes!!”
Speaking of tips, could somebody put me on the straight and narrow. I took a party of 15 to a nice restaurant for a couple of afternoon hours so we could have the place to ourselves. Pre-sent the order. Basically ordered about twenty appetizers and a couple of their catering trays that could feed an army. Drinks were individually ordered. The guys were good and just kept lugging out the trays every ten minutes. Served a few things around the table, but the rest were just plopped down buffet style.
So the main waiter brings the bill and there’s no 20% added. I say to myself what’s going on? So I had them re-add with a 20%. Was I supposed to do 50 cash instead to each waiter because this was considered a private party?
That little Napoleonic asswipe needs to be euthanized….
136.Nomad says:
December 8, 2010 at 5:23 pm
Well then, the CEO over at Toll says the worst in housing is over and things will start to improve.
Dude…taxable…who gives a flying fck
133.JJ says:
December 8, 2010 at 4:58 pm
Underwriters led by Goldman, Sachs & Co today priced a $1.85 billion offering of federally taxable turnpike revenue bonds from the New Jersey Turnpike Authority sold as Build America Bonds with a yield of 7.102 percent on a single 2041 maturity priced at par, according to a pricing schedule.
Nice yield
chi (145)-
Why euthanize him, when you could have him pulled apart by a pack of fighting dogs?
chi (146)-
jj’s hot streak is about to come to an end.
Build America Bonds
Bilderberg
Build-a-Bear
Any way you cut it, looks like phony baloney bond programs that the gubmint will jettison on 1/1/11 don’t catch such a good bid now.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/gono/BABS%20Yield.jpg
“The real risk to JPMorgan is the speed of which long bond yields rise as they cannot get out of their contracts. This will probably be the spark that ignites inside a coal mine. A yield of say 5% would create a 1.6% loss of over 640 billion dollars (they state, I believe, a notional 90 trillion interest rate swaps so 45 trillion on the long end and 45 trillion on the short end). That would blow up JPMorgan and create havoc and collateral damage equal to a neutron bomb in the financial area of Wall Street.”
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
I guess silver is the least of JP Morgans problems.
Time to get the diapers back out and a vomit bag handy. Doom is back on.
“I’ll bet a lot of people who thought that they were getting a 4.0% mortgage at the low either didn’t close the loan or ended up with a higher % when it came time to sign.”
I know 2 people that locked in at 3.875. I feel bad for those that floated their rate.
122.
The best rate I saw was in October/ early November at 3.75 30 year fixed. It was there and gone in one afternoon.
The end of an era for the first big BWR. I used to ride my bike past this place:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/09/nyregion/09nuke.html
From Huffington post:
UPDATE: WJBK FOX 2 News in Detroit confirms that Franklin has cancer. A family insider told the station that she’s doing, “OK,” but they ask for the public’s prayers.
PREVIOUSLY:
A week after undergoing surgery for a mystery illness, the National Enquirer reports (via PopCrunch) that famed singer Aretha Franklin has incurable pancreatic cancer.
The surgery, labeled a success, came under mysterious circumstances. This is the first time this illness has been reported. In November, she canceled all concerts through May 2011 due to “medical reasons.”
The Enquirer’s report lists pancreatic survival rates at 5-10%, and even lower for someone of Franklin’s age and weight.
snip
Nice closet:
http://media.egotastic.com/media/pictures/1012/christina-aguilera-leaked-pics-03.jpg
Shoes too.
This was a good article in the Sunday Post about Newark although I don’t what they meant by fear LEAVING Newark.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/newark_tragic_cops_shattered_economy_BtCTkDjJeDjjpFSElsTpzN
Neanderthal Economist says:
December 7, 2010 at 11:05 pm
Year Nat Debt % of GDP
2000 58
2001 57.4
2002 59.7
2003 62.6
2004 63.9
2005 64.6
2006 65
2007 65.6
2008 70.2
2009 86.1
2010 93.2
That … that doesn’t seem good.
Tried to post this Monday and Tuesday … moderated each time.
http://is.gd/iqdqA
It’s Donald Trump’s hair on MNF. funny
http://pokeraccount.net/bankroll-management-tips Thanks for that awesome posting. It saved MUCH time :-)
Jobs Outlook is Worse Than People Think: Stockman
At the rate the US economy is recovering, it will take 28 years to get back to where we were in December 2007 if something doesn’t change, David Stockman, former federal budget director under President Reagan, told CNBC Friday.
“When we look below the surface and the job outlook and the trend that we’ve been in, it’s a lot worse then people think,” Stockman said.
“The jobs that they count every month and people get excited about are really part-time jobs,” he said.
snip
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40491367
Shore, re: Oyster Creek
“After the Oyster Creek plant is shut by the end of 2019, Exelon will take about two years to put its components “in layup” but will not tear it down for at least 10 years after that, and possibly not for 60 years, Mr. Crane said. ”
Looks like your great grandkids may be peddling past it, too.