Double dip over so soon?

From HousingWire:

Clear Capital: Home prices showing life in 2011

Home prices stopped declining in early January and even increased for the first time since August, according to the Clear Capital home price index.

Over the last three months, home prices did decline 1.6% from the previous period. But at the start of 2011, Clear Capital said prices began “showing life.” The company’s senior statistician Alex Villacorta said it is the first uptick since the homebuyer tax credit was in force. It expired in April 2010, and prices have dropped off since.

Villacorta warned however that any conclusions of a recovery would be premature, but he did say it was a positive sign.

“This recent national change in price direction is encouraging for the overall housing sector, yet it is still too early to determine whether this current uptick in home prices is a temporary reprieve or the start of a sustained recovery,” Villacorta said.

The changes in prices, especially during a point in the year when sales are slow, is a sign that demand may be returning. Even more encouraging, Clear Capital said the main driver of the price increase was the slowing rate of sale of REO properties, those repossessed through foreclosure.

“Although many markets still remain under significant downward pressure in light of increased distressed sale activities, it is clear that the severity of the downturns observed in October and November have subsided,” Villacorta said.

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118 Responses to Double dip over so soon?

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. safe as houses says:

    Maybe prices went up because only good houses is good locations are moving, while the pos are rotting away with their fantasy price listings?

  3. grim says:

    From the Daily Record:

    Morris residents not immune to ‘worst economic downturn since Great Depression’

    The numbers, said Mary Jo Buchanan, Morris County’s director of human services, are “frightening.”

    The numbers tally Morris County residents who sought services through the Office of Temporary Assistance last year. As outlined by Freeholder John Murphy to fellow board members, they show:

    • Visits to the Office of Temporary Assistance increased 21 percent.
    • Applications for food stamps rose 31 percent.
    • Applications for general assistance rose 20 percent.
    • Applications for Medicaid rose 25 percent.

    “What these numbers show is that we struggled with the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression,” Murphy said. “This has been our most challenging year in some time.”

    While there is hope the state’s economy is turning around — the county’s unemployment rate dropped to 6.3 percent in December, down from a peak of 8 percent in February — the numbers show a continued need for food, shelter and medicine, she said.

    A concern going forward, she said, is that some states, including New Jersey, might consider cutting Medicaid spending to balance budgets.

    The other concern, Buchanan said, is that the state’s 2 percent tax levy cap could result in more layoffs in towns and schools. Last year hundreds of school jobs, mostly held by teachers, were lost as school budgets were tightened. So far this year, several Morris towns have announced cuts in municipal jobs.

  4. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Home Buyers Kick Tires on a Rocky Road

    Yesterday the folks at online real estate sale and data site Zillow were all a twitter (on Twitter) about how they had reached 15.7 million unique monthly visitors in January. That’s up 75 percent year over year and a new record. While they touted the merits of their web site, I wondered, no offense to Zillow, if part of it didn’t have to do with increasing buyer traffic on the web overall last month. So I asked.

    “Off the cuff, I’d put the split at about 50/50, with maybe half of our surge in usage coming from greater Zillow brand awareness, and half from more people starting to show interest in real estate,” confessed Zillow’s CEO Spencer Rascoff.

    “We’re seeing this increased usage in Zillow Mortgage Marketplace as well. Loan requests from borrowers were up 56% from December to January, so that definitely signals that people are thinking about diving into the market.”

    We also saw a surge in mortgage applications last week in the Mortgage Bankers Association survey, with applications to purchase a home up 9.5 percent from the previous week. The MBA, however, cautions that the previous week had a holiday in it and so applications had fallen accordingly; the two week average for purchase applications is basically flat. Refis are down.

    January isn’t exactly a hot season for home sales historically, and this year, in many markets, you’d be hard pressed to find any homes under all the snow. Still, the traffic online, where I imagine most folks go before even heading to an open house, is an important sign, as we head into the Spring market. The question mark remains in financing.

  5. House Whine says:

    3- I wonder how many of those applying for assistance in Morris County had done so because they had run out of unemployment benefits. 99 weeks is a lot of time to look for a job, but it’s not inconceivable that no jobs were found by some. So even though the stats show that in Dec. the unemployment went down maybe they just dropped off the UI program.

  6. renter says:

    How inflation is turning breakfast into a luxury item
    February 2, 2011 10:10 am
    The Fed’s policies are pricing basic morning staples out of reach — and the results may come back to haunt even those who don’t notice.

  7. 30 year realtor says:

    Comp Killer – Doing a drive by BPO on a 4 year old 2 family in Paterson, 26-28 N. 5th St. Sold for $490,000 12/19/06. Listed 7/16/09 for $299,000. Withdrawn 11/26/10 after 498 DOM. Final list price $199,000. My estimate of value, $155,000.

  8. grim says:

    7 – straw buyer, it was fraud.

  9. Schrodinger's Cat says:


    Perhaps in the end bergabe’s great inflation game will be our trump card over china. Food costs will continue to inflate as long as bergabe plays games and china has no choice but to import large amounts of basic staples in order to keep their population feed. They are not capable of feeding their population based on internal agriculture. The US on the other hand is easily capable of feeding our entire population off of US agriculture. That would be one heck of a trade war but it would seriously F china, as a hungry population is a dangerous population to a government. Dont forget that the Chinese also have a very large excess male population due to the 1 child policy.

  10. 30 year realtor says:

    #8 – Tax records indicate a mortgage amount of $392,000. Unusual to find a 20% down payment on a fraud. Not saying it is impossible, just not the typical pattern I have become accustomed to for a fraud.

  11. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Nom, or any other legal beagles;

    Given the article above and the numerous other public statements of similar acts, wouldn’t any attorney general who wasn’t busy fell@ting the banks have a fairly easy case of multiple charges against both the individuals and the banks as a while?

    Dont you love it when the banks can openly lie, cheat and steal without consequences?

  12. Painhrtz says:

    You know there is a bubble when somebody is willing to pay 490K for a house in Paterson. 2 Family or not. I don’t even care if it is on the Totowa/Wayne border

  13. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “Clear Capital said the main driver of the price increase was the slowing rate of sale of REO properties, those repossessed through foreclosure.”

    Okay but there is supposedly a huge wave of reo coming to market soon so price uptick may be short lived.

  14. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    post 11 is meant to reference the following:

    If a client requested verification of our pricing, we volunteered to fax a time-stamped printout of market data from when the trade was executed. One person talked to the client on the phone while another stood by the computer and repeatedly hit print. The printouts were sorted, and the one showing the most profitable rate for the bank was faxed to the client, regardless of which rate was actually transacted. If a rate for the client’s specific trade was not on the printout, we might create rigged conversion spreadsheets for them to use in conjunction with the printout.

    Other sources of profit lay in details that clients thought were merely procedural but in actuality affected pricing as well. Once, a client called after his interest-rate swap was completed and asked to change a method of counting days. Unbeknownst to him, this change should have lowered his rate. I made the requested change but kept his rate the same, allowing us to realize unwarranted profit. This was standard practice. My coworkers knew what I had done, as did the traders, as did the people who booked trades. I even tallied the “restructuring” as an achievement in a letter angling for a higher bonus.

  15. Schrodinger's Cat says:


    You might find this interesting. The Spanish banks had best start paying off a few judges or they have a very big problem.

    In what could be the beginning of a change in Spanish law, a judge in Navarra has ruled that the proceeds gained from the sale of a property repossessed by a bank should be sufficient to clear the former owner’s debt.

    Under current Spanish law, mortgage lenders have the right to make a claim on all of a borrower’s assets and not just the home on which the mortgage was based on.

    In this case, the borrower had an outstanding debt of 28,129 euros from an original 71,225 euro loan, after the lending bank, BBVA, sold the property in Navarre for 42,895 euros. Once sold, the bank continued to demand mortgage payments and the case ended up in court.

    The judge surmised that the fall in value of the property was a direct result of financial mis-practice. “The truth is that the bank was awarded a property which they themselves has valued too highly,” justified the judge.

    It was noted by the Navarra court that just a few days previously, the Congress of Deputies has begun to consider a proposal whereby “the secured obligation of mortgages should only be effective on the goods mortgaged, and should not apply to other assets of the debtor.”

    BBVA plan to appeal the decision and it should be noted that a regional court’s decision does not set a precedent for other cases, this would require two Supreme court judgments. However, there is a strong prospect that other repossessions will head to court in the hope that other judges rule in a similar fashion.

  16. Wheels are coming off now.

    No hope. No future. Let it all burn.

  17. Cotton limit up. Brent at $103.

    Let’s see how the Syrians throw a riot. Something makes me think they will make the Egyptians look like pikers.

  18. Schrodinger's Cat says:


    Some more fodder for you

    A 7-year-old child allegedly shot a Nerf-style toy gun in his Hammonton, N.J., school Jan. 18. No one was hurt, but the pint-size softshooter now faces misdemeanor criminal charges.

    Hammonton Police began an investigation into the “suspicious activity” at the Hammonton Early Childhood Education Center Jan. 18 after school officials alerted them to the incident.

    The “gun” the child brought to school was a $5 toy gun, similar to a Nerf gun, that shoots soft ping pong type balls, according to the school’s superintendent.

    Officials also say that there was no evidence of anyone being threatened. The child’s mother told school officials that she didn’t know her son brought the toy to school.

    Dr. Dan Blachford, the Hammonton Board of Education superintendent, said the school has a zero tolerance policy.

    “We are just very vigilant and we feel that if we draw a very strict line then we have much less worry about someone bringing in something dangerous,” said Blachford.

  19. grim says:

    New jobless claims drop to 415k.

  20. Juice Box says:

    Re 18
    They should frisk the kids for rubber bands and paper clips.

  21. grim says:

    #10 – I didnt bother looking it up, I figured I’d just play the odds that were in my favor..

  22. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [11] cat

    On the face of it, yes. I have to tread carefully here because I represented banks in regulatory matters. Suffice it to say, I know the issue, the arguments, and the counterarguments, but because privilege attaches, and one doesn’t always know where the tripwire is, I am not comfortable venturing down that path. Last thing I need is to hear from a former employer or, worse, a state bar disciplinary board.

  23. 30 year realtor says:

    Neanderthal #13 – NY & NJ (don’t know about the other 48) are in foreclosure sale limbo. Affidavits must be signed by plaintiff assuring the legitimacy of their foreclosure process and few plaintiffs are signing. Sales are at a standstill. If this is not happening all over the country, it will.

    When there is resolution to the foreclosure process (state by state) inventory will be hitting the market at an accelerated rate. Should make for interesting times.

  24. Comrade Nom Deplume says:


    “Dr. Dan Blachford, the Hammonton Board of Education superintendent, said the school has a zero tolerance policy.”

    From their website:


    Any student found in possession of a weapon, or any item deemed as a weapon, will be suspended pending a Board of Education hearing along with criminal charges filed.”

    I see a world of vagueness here. Time for the parents to lawyer up.

  25. Schrodinger's Cat says:


    Sorry, not trying to solicit legal advice or opinions, only lay speculation.

    A parent should have the superintended searched. I am aure you could find something in his possession on school grounds that could be considered a weapon. A letter opener, a pocket knife, etc. Heck based on their rules a sharpened pencil could qualify as a weapon.

    Is a kid who is simultaneously in possession of mentos and a bottle of soda going to be charged with attempting to build an explosive device. Hey those 2 things could be used to do exactly that.

    Is pointing your finger and going “bang bang” a simulated weapon????

  26. Schrodinger's Cat says:


    rubber bands make great weapons! you can launch all sorts of interesting projectiles!

  27. safe as houses says:

    #18 Cat,

    Zero tolerance policies are a way admins avoid having to use common sense and make judgement calls. They just follow policies like a robot, no matter how idiotic the decisions seem, and can claim we have a zero tolerance policy as a blanket cover.

  28. safe as houses says:

    #24 nom,

    With the surge in allergies, I wonder if a peanut butter sandwich could be deemed a weapon by those guidelines?

  29. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    safe 28

    would a jar of peanut butter brought to school be WMD?

  30. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [28] safe, [25] cat,

    If you can prove intent or use that could cause harm, yes, they could.

  31. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Bloomberg had a story on “political risk insurance”.

    Coming to a country near you???

  32. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Clot asked about this yesterday. A quick google search later . . .

  33. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    more on political risk insurance. Apparently the underwriter is . . .

    Wait for it.

    YOU, the U.S. Taxpayer.

    Why am I not surprised?

  34. NJToast says:

    Looks like BAC found a buyer for Balboa Insurance. Once the deal is done, BAC can open up the foreclosure floodgates.

  35. Schrodinger's Cat says:


    I have already seen a custom holder ( a combination of the otterbox iphone case and an attachment piece) for the iphone that fits onto standard picatinny rails so that you can keep both hands on the weapon while using Isnipe without obscuring normal rifle functions.

    Some website did testing and put video up to show that the otterbox setup can is good enough to keep the shockwave from a 50BMG from damaging the phone.

  36. Schrodinger's Cat says:


    neat toy, but doesnt make someone a marksman on its own.

  37. leftwing says:

    “Unbeknownst to him, this change should have lowered his rate. I made the requested change but kept his rate the same, allowing us to realize unwarranted profit.”

    “The printouts were sorted, and the one showing the most profitable rate for the bank was faxed to the client, regardless of which rate was actually transacted. ”

    If you can’t run with the big dogs don’t get off the porch.

    Client in the second one is a schmuck. If you think you should be getting a better rate negotiate for it. By requesting ‘verification’ the clown probably paid more than if he neither negotiated nor requested backup. Jackoff.

    In most of the corporate deals I did clients didn’t want to pay for interest rate protection upfront because of the lack of certainty the deal would actually close. Post closing and at pricing of the FRN they all go back to the terms sheets which in some cases were months old. When we ‘repriced’ was it in our favor? Hell yeah. Some clients took it, some negotiated, and some (the smart ones) had a backup and told us to pound sand. Guess who got the best rate?

    It constantly amazes that large swathes of our population believe that the person they are negotiating with across the table – whose interests are diametrically opposed to their own – somehow has their best interests in heart and hand.

    The guy in the second example is even more stupid than I first said. He did not trust that his bank was giving him the best deal available so to protect himself he went for help to….HIS BANK.

    Darwin, where are you?

  38. Painhrtz says:

    Nom 32 I just found a reason to get an Iphone

  39. cat (18)-

    Soften and lobotomize the next generation of sheeple, so that they will simply take orders and perform simple tasks without question.

  40. In the near future, TPTB will only allow weapons to those chosen to terrify the rest of the population.

  41. safe (27)-

    The the liberal educator, using judgment = exercising bias.

    Denial of common sense, intuition and judgment for the goal of equalizing outcomes is precisely why liberalism is mental illness.

    (Sorry to parrot Michael Savage, but he’s right on this one.)

  42. plume (32)-

    Thank you.

  43. Painhrtz says:

    Debt, guns are bad anything that replicates a gun is bad. the parents must be mentally unbalanced to allow their child access to something as dangerous as a foam ball shooter.

    homgeneatity institutions like schools are sheep factories, it is up to the parents to break the spell. I concur I would be getting lawyered up, and I’m not a big fan of frivolous law cases.

  44. Confused In NJ says:

    All the kids had realistic cowboy & military toys in the 50’s, and there was much less crime. Go figure?

  45. Essex says:

    44. Less people too Einstein.

  46. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [40] debt

    “In the near future, TPTB will only allow weapons to those chosen to terrify the rest of the population.”

    Whydaya think that the liberals want to outlaw private gun ownership?

    Saw a great bumpersticker in NYC years back. It said “Fear the government that fears your guns.”

  47. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Essex 45

    your point?

  48. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [36] cat

    For my purposes, it is a useless tool.

    To paraphrase Trevor Howard from ‘Von Ryan’s Express”, “the average hoodlum would grow impatient while you calculate how to make your shot.”

  49. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [47] cat

    SX’s point seems to be a Darwinian or Mathusian one. More people mean more competition for scarce resources, hence more crime.

    There is also science that suggests crowding induces mental conditions that could tend toward violence.

    Otherwise, I got nuthin’


  50. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [43] pain

    Foam ball shooters, feh. When I was young, we brought knives, and did not get in trouble for having them.

  51. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [47] cat

    SX could also be suggesting that you are speaking of overall crime, not per capita crime. His suggestion is that crime really hasn’t increased in proportion to the overall population.

    SX, am I reading you right?

  52. Schrodinger's Cat says:


    I would be interested to see stats that back that up. My personal experience, as subjective as it may be doesn’t back up SX supposition.

  53. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [25] cat

    “Is pointing your finger and going “bang bang” a simulated weapon????”

    Not a weapon, but it can be, and has been, used as a basis for charges of threatening (or ‘terroristic threatening” as it is called in some jurisdictions).

    Even pointing at someone in a hypercontrolled setting, like a school, has been used as a basis for threatening charges.

    Assault may also be charged, although it is harder to prove.

  54. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [52] cat

    Any explanation of the methodology for commonly-used crime stats should provide the answer. I do not have the time or motivation to do this myself.

  55. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Nom 51

    SX could also be suggesting that you are speaking of overall crime, not per capita crime. His suggestion is that crime really hasn’t increased in proportion to the overall population.

    This may be the case i haven’t looked at the stats that closely. In general you do tend to see crime increase with population density. Given that most crimes involving a firearm, involve an illegally acquired firearm to begin with the rise in crime is unrelated to legitimate firearm ownership. Well, unless you consider that legitimate firearm ownership tends to have a suppressive effect on violent crime

  56. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Nom 53

    Can we just bring back dueling please???? if i remember correctly dueling has never been made illegal in NJ and there is no statutory prohibition. Although the pesky manslaughter charges for the winner could be a problem.

  57. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [56] cat

    If not dueling, which is de facto illegal, how about settlement in the manner of the Jesuits at the boy’s schools?

    Bring them to the gym, have them lace up, and have at it.

    Time for me to be dad. Peace out, y’all.

  58. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    But not before one final thought on why gun control attempts will always fail on a visceral level:

  59. Painhrtz says:

    Nom have fun and I alwasy had a pocket knife, but I can do some major damage with a hockey stick.

  60. Outofstater says:

    For those interested in AlJazeera’s coverage of events in Cairo:

  61. jamil says:

    53, “Not a weapon, but it can be, and has been, used as a basis for charges of threatening (or ‘terroristic threatening” as it is called in some jurisdictions).”

    so classmates are “conspiring in terror acts” or “providing material assistance to terrorists”?

    Lucky us that O has started the policy of warrantless killings of US citizens using wartime powers (*) so we can get rid of these little rascals.

    *perfectly fine use of constitutional powers if POTUS is lib, just ask Shore Guy

  62. Shore Guy says:

    “or any item deemed as a weapon”

    And that could be, hummmmm, say it with me, “Anything.” Yeesh.

  63. homeboken says:

    Spot gold has just gone parabolic. All you goldbugs must be giddy.

  64. Shore Guy says:

    Woa, Nellie!

    Investors increased bets that oil prices may surge to as much as $250 a barrel on concern the unrest in Egypt will disrupt traffic in the Suez Canal and spread to Saudi Arabia.

    Open interest in the $250 call option for December, which give the buyer the right to purchase oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange at that price, climbed to 242 from 142 on Feb. 1 and stayed at that level yesterday.

  65. NJGator says:

    For those of you who previously posted about the West Orange townhomes with the crazy assessments, the new 2011 WO proposed assessments are up on ASI’s website. Happy Hunting!

    It should be noted that the 2010 equivalent tax rate for WO based on the new assessments is 3.383. Almost makes Montclair look like Morris County. Ouch!

  66. Libtard says:

    “Almost makes Montclair look like Morris County.”

    Diversity sure is expensive!

  67. Painhrtz says:

    Lib I’ll stay in Morris county thanks. whoever thought Essex county taxes would make bergen taxes look fair.

  68. NJGator says:

    Pain – what’s really interesting is to compare the new WO rate with other Essex County towns. Glen Ridge, with zero ratables and a top notch school system rings in at 2.78%. Millburn which is blessed with ratables and also provides top notch schools rings in at 1.76%.

    West Orange comes in at close to 3.383% with ratables and mediocre schools. When you’re making the Ridge look like a low tax town, you’ve got problems.

  69. Shore Guy says:

    Things heating up in Sanaa

  70. Shore Guy says:

    No pun intended.

  71. Shore Guy says:


    Land of Copts and robbers?

  72. Shore Guy says:

    Pitty the Gator family with TWO Essex County tax bills

  73. JJ says:

    This house built in 2005 at peak of bubble out on Long Island , did the owner go just a little bit crazy?

    Stunning Architectural Masterpiece Inspired By Marie-Antoinette’s Le Petit Trianon Built In Limestone. Fall In Love With This Unique Chateau Known For Its Natural Phenomena Of Pink And Blue Lights At Twilight And Sweeping Waterviews. Bathe On Private Beach Or Luxuriate In Sumptous Rooms And Marble Baths. Features Incl. Theatre, 2-Story Library, Gourmet Kitchen, & More.
    City: Centre Island
    State: New York
    Year built: 2005
    Sq. Feet: 16,500 ft²
    Bedrooms: 8
    Bathrooms: 12

    Interior Features
    Air Conditioning: Central Air Conditioning
    Heating: Hw

    Exterior Features
    Construction: Limestone
    Style: Estate
    Pool: In Ground
    Pool Description: Gunite
    Garage Spaces: (Detached/Attached) Det/7.00

  74. Shore Guy says:


    With taxes at $114,000/yr., they pay lower taxes on square-foot basis or per dollar of assessed value than Stu and Gator.

  75. JJ says:

    We should notify the realtor selling the house. How much do you think it cost in 2005 to make a copy of Marie-Antoinette’s Le Petit Trianon house? Back then in 2005 Contractors were like minting money and charging top top dollar as they were so busy.

    Shore Guy says:
    February 3, 2011 at 2:08 pm


    With taxes at $114,000/yr., they pay lower taxes on square-foot basis or per dollar of assessed value than Stu and Gato

  76. JJ says:

    Funny, House is advertised as approx.(18,027,112.78 EUR), maybe instead of cutting a home’s price maybe just list in EUROs

  77. Painhrtz says:

    I thought Lib and Gator didn’t pay for their taxes, they just have lil gator sell illegal weapons at the Grammar School.

  78. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Pain 81

    please get it right, their son is the local security contractor for the secondary market pharmaceutical suppliers.

  79. Shore Guy says:


    Worst of all, the house has no soul. THE house to emulate from Versailles is her cottage by the pond.

    Hameau de la reine, I believe is the name.

  80. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [81] pain

    “hey just have lil gator sell illegal weapons at the Grammar School.”

    Hey kid, wanna buy a Reeses cup?

    and I could do some damage with a hockey stick too! :-)

  81. Shore Guy says:


    Are you organizing seminars in your spare time?

  82. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Anyone want a peak at the canadian housing bubble?

  83. Painhrtz says:

    Cat look up any crapshack in Vancouver and it makes LA bungalos during the bubble look reasonable

  84. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Pain 88

    Thi blog i linked is like grim back in 05. Most locals probably think this guy is full of it. I just thought it was an interesting contrast, escpecially his description of the condo mania.

    On Toronto’s western waterfront sits a luxury condo building called NXT. To sell it last year the developer went nuts. People who signed up on a single night, for example, got a year’s worth of mortgage payments with just a wispy deposit. In fact, the cash-back paid for all of the down payment. So, the condos were free. You just needed to shoulder a mortgage worth about $500 a square foot.

    Months after the building was finished, vast numbers of units stand empty. Sold, but empty. Most speckers thought they’d be able to flip before occupancy, but no such luck. This market’s already dying. And the renters shall inherit the earth.

    This ad appeared on Craigslist. A two-bedder sold for north of $600,000 can now be rented for $1,200 a month, which is 50% of the occupancy cost. It’s also the same rent as others are paying in the building for half the floor space – all the proof you need that rents are about to come tumbling down along with the value of real estate.

  85. Shore Guy says:

    Yea. But. VANCOUVER had the Olympic Games.

  86. Shore Guy says:

    Okay, so did LA, twice, but that was then and this is now and things are different now.

  87. Schrodinger's Cat says:


    a quick google search shows the median vancouver home price as 638K CAD and the median vancouver household income as 56K CAD

    and we think NY/NJ is different. Vancouver makes this area look like a hillbilly backwater with their RE leveraged at 11X median household income.

    Apr 2010 median price is listed at about 800K. I couldn’t find income data that recent but lets be conservative and round up to a median household income of 60K. Vancouver may have peaked at about 13X median household income. That is mind boggling!

    For comparison, the NY/NJ area peaked at about 7X

  88. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    the 638K median price is from late 2006

  89. Schrodinger's Cat says:


    one of the comments from the Canadian blog

    how long now you have talking abut a correction or even a crash , and still the prices are going up, so if we bought a year ago with lower prices and we hve a house correction we will still not loose….keep on talking and prices will keep on moving higher, by the time it corrects it will be 25% high….the other day someone bought a condo house in Calgary for 4.1 million, do u think a guy with this amount of money is stupid and didnt do his research and due diligence before he buys.

  90. Essex says:

    51. Yes. Sorry to post and run.

  91. ditto says:

    “the other day someone bought a condo house in Calgary for 4.1 million, do u think a guy with this amount of money is stupid and didnt do his research and due diligence before he buys”

    Well thats what I call a convincing argument.

  92. JJ says:

    But many would sell their soul to get it.
    Shore Guy says:
    February 3, 2011 at 2:28 pm


    Worst of all, the house has no soul. THE house to emulate from Versailles is her cottage by the pond.

    Hameau de la reine, I believe is the name.

  93. Painhrtz says:

    Cat 94, rip any of the poster’s handle who have since disappeared, put it in front of that comment, and it is a time warp.

    ditto 4.1 million for a condo in Calgary! LOL There are only two places colder than Calgary in the Northern Hemisphere during the winter; Edmonton and the F*cking North Pole

  94. Al Mossberg says:


    Change: 1.04 (16.12% )

  95. NJCoast says:

    Idina Menzel. Now this chick can sing. Killer sound check with the NJ Symphony Orchestra.

  96. Anon E. Moose says:

    JJ [75];

    I’ve flown over/past that bad boy doing some beachcombing patrol enroute to lunch on Block Island more than once. Architecture reminds me more of the Dept of Treasury than Marie Antionette, but hey, the sales babe’s gotta do something to justify her slice.

  97. leftwing says:

    “It should be noted that the 2010 equivalent tax rate for WO based on the new assessments is 3.383. ”

    One has to be truly insane to purchase an asset – highly leveraged no less – knowing that before any other expenses associated with that asset one will pay 3.4% of its value out the door annually.

  98. leftwing says:

    Taxes of $114k?

    Worth finding a way to secede from the municipality. Give them a fee for bringing the pavement to your drive and be self sufficient for everything else. Big enough lot for a septic.

  99. safe as houses says:

    Hardy har har

    “China’s CCTV news report was ‘Top Gun’ scene”

  100. safe as houses says:

    How soon before Upper Hoightyville, NJ thinks of this?

    China village builds ‘Great Wall’ to deter thieves

  101. Punch My Ticket says:

    Cat [92],

    11X median household income [in Vancouver]

    It gets worse. There is no mortgage interest deduction in Canada. Nor are there 30 year loans. (You can amortize over 30 years, but your rate is locked for no more than 5 years.) How 11x income is sustainable at any interest rate above 3% is a mystery. Mortgage rates are well above 3% in Canada today, and will be in 5 years.

  102. Punch My Ticket says:

    BTW, the proprietor of is a known idiot, so take anything he says with a shaker of salt. But he’s right about Canuck real estate.

  103. Schrodinger's Cat says:


    Re salt; of course i do as i dont know the blog or its author. That’s is why i pulled stats from the Canadian government site. A quick look shows that 25yr mortgages are popular. and rates are around 5% for an I/O loan. As a ROUGH estimate the PI for the median home in Vancouver would consume about 60 -70% of the median households income.

    I may be missing some region aspect of the CAD RE market but the leverage involved seems astounding and makes the northeast seem down right conservative in terms of housing costs.

  104. Schrodinger's Cat says:


    here is a vancouver RE blog with a bunch of charts and stats.

    What stands out is how non-bubbly Montreal appears to be.

  105. Schrodinger's Cat says:


    you seem to be familiar with Vancouver RE. Is there a substantial amount of Asian $ influencing that market or is it mostly local $?

  106. Punch My Ticket says:

    Cat [111],

    Vancouver is explained by Chinese money. It started in the 80s when the HKers needed a bolt hole for when Maggie handed them over to Beijing. It has never stopped since, but most of the money today is from the mainland. (They need bolt holes too!) Cash buyers, not dependent on loans, don’t care about amortization or interest rates. It’s more insurance than investment (or home).

    Toronto is inexplicable.

    Montreal hasn’t had a bubble in a hundred years.

  107. Montreal is not vastly different from, say, Cleveland.

    It is a gritty, working class town, and the big money is in the hands of very, very few people.

    I have family there, and they are your basic, salt-of-the-earth Frenchy Canucks. S0cialist to the core, and hate the Bruins.

  108. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “The median vancouver home price as 638K CAD and the median vancouver household income as 56K CAD”

    Cat, let’s assume that rates go to zero. In that scenario, shall we continue to assume that prices need to correct?

  109. NJGator says:

    Paterson officials will argue to limit tax increase

    City officials will travel to Trenton on Monday to plead their case for a lighter municipal tax increase.

    The state Department of Community Affairs, which must approve Paterson’s budget by Feb. 28, has recommended the city raise municipal taxes by more than 40 percent in ordered to close a $54 million deficit.

    The 40 percent increase would mean taxes on a home assessed at $350,000, the city average, would go up $1,400.

    The City Council wants to limit the increase to $544, meaning next quarter’s tax bill on an average home would increase by $272.

    Meanwhile, a temporary compromise was struck before this quarter’s tax bills were sent out, with a $467 increase for the average home.

    A smaller tax hike would be possible, in part, through spending cuts across all departments. and by slashing salaries by 15 percent for top earners.

    Employees making between $10,000 and $25,999 a year would see only a 1 percent pay cut. Council members, who are paid $41,000 annually, would take a 15 percent cut.

    The salary cuts should save about $7 million and avoid more than 100 layoffs, said Councilman-at-Large Kenneth Morris, who, as finance chairman, drafted the amendment to the budget. Morris said the salary cuts would be paid back upon retirement.

    Mayor Jeffery Jones has already submitted a plan to the state that calls for about 150 police layoffs.

    His administration has so far brought the deficit down to $12 million, but mostly through a 29 percent tax hike.

    Morris presented a similar plan at a council meeting Tuesday that was to be passed on to Jones for consideration. His cuts could be added to the budget, pending the outcome of the meeting in Trenton.

  110. The Montreal Canadiens are one of the great pro sports teams of all time, yet the franchise is usually at the bottom of Forbes’ list of most valuable sports franchises.

    Just no damn money in that town.

  111. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Coolest thing about Montreal?
    The suped-up go carts. By far.

  112. Neanderthal Economist says:

    I pretty much put any hockey team on the forbes most lame thing to watch list.

  113. jamil says:

    71, Keith: “Things heating up in Sanaa”

    Your Messiah is getting things done. He rejected Iran’s uprising 2 years ago and sent love letters to Iranian leadership instead. Now he is openly pushing Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Hezbollah in Lebanon (US was missing in action there), and now Jordan is in flames too.
    Once Obama/Osama are done, both peace agreeements in ME are ended, and Israel is surrounded by Iranian-sponsored terror groups. Saves dirty job from Obama. The leadership from Nobel prize winner creates half-dozen new nuke countries, peace agreements thrown out, and preparation for the final war (and solution) – quite an achievement.

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