Casting a shadow on the recovery

From HousingWire:

New York shadow inventory extends past ten years

(click to enlarge)

The shadow inventory in the state of New York — properties with mortgage borrowers more than 90 days delinquent — will take around 154 months to clear.

That’s nearly 13 years of unsold property supply.

In the case of shadow inventory, a meaningfully strong housing market will not grow to vibrancy unless homes where the borrower is not likely to amortize are resold.

The number of such homes in New York greatly outweighs the national average of 49 months, according to a Standard & Poor’s research note released this week.

S&P says the Empire State is slow to expedite liquidations. New York is one of 21 judicial states, where courts hear foreclosure cases, which means it should take longer than usual. However, a foreclosure mediation program from 2008 is also partially to blame, though the analysts says this still isn’t enough to explain the statewide phenomenon.

This entry was posted in Economics, Foreclosures, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

328 Responses to Casting a shadow on the recovery

  1. freedy says:


  2. grim says:

    Compare California, Nevada, and Arizona (the epicenter of the housing bust) to the NY Metro area…

  3. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  4. Mike says:

    Looks like Jersey is bleeding to death on that map

  5. yo'me says:

    The prosperous years in America is when the Rich paid their fair share

    Federal Income Tax History Income years 1913-2011

  6. DejaVu says:

    Why do NY, NJ & PA have a higher level of shadow inventory. Are people more likely to engage in strategic default in this area and if so, is this due to higher home prices (nut so big homeowners are more likely to say the heck with it) or higher unemployment? This chart may be another reason for me not to try and buy a condo or town home.

    Grim, do you have any demographics or psychographics on what type of person is more likely to do a strategic default? Are they strivers / wannabees with enough cash flow for a nice house and european auto lease or are there some who truly have the $ to pay the mtg but walk without regard to the commitment they made when they purchased the property.

  7. jamil says:

    The price of big government: 15 milllion jobs. But at least we got to spend few trillions to achieve that job loss.

    “Had the U.S. economy recovered from the current recession the way it bounced back from the other 10 recessions since World War II, our per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) would be $3,553 higher than it is today, and 11.9 million more Americans would be employed.

    Those startling figures are based on the average recovery rate of real GDP and jobs three years after the beginning of each postwar recession. Some apologists suggest that the current recovery is so weak because the recession was so deep. But the totality of our experience in the postwar period is exactly the opposite—the bigger the bust, the bigger the boom that follows.
    But it is equally clear that Americans did not realize that the price they might pay for big government would be 15.7 million fewer jobs and $4,154 less in per-capita income. Big government costs more than higher taxes. It is paid for with diminished freedom and less opportunity. You can’t have unlimited opportunity and unlimited government. “

  8. Mike says:

    Maybe the banks should hire this guy to recoup some of their mortgage money

  9. Confused In NJ says:

    Obama’s response: “Well, you know, I think that over the last two and a half years there’s been an effort to go at me in a way that is politically expedient in the short term for Republicans. But [it] creates, I think, a problem for them when they want to actually run in a general election where most people feel pretty confident the president was born where he says he was, in Hawaii. He—he doesn’t have horns.”

    Interesting comment from “O”, or was it a Freudian Slip?

  10. grim (2)-

    Two non-judicial foreclosure states.

  11. It’s all going to end in tears.

  12. Mikeinwaiting says:

    It would seem that the epicenter for the shadow inventory is right here in the NY-NJ metro area, now add in the outrageous taxes all I can say is “it is a great time to buy”.

  13. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Grim you sure you want to buy, it just being you and fido. I would think that there are many rental options, no school concerns, spousal pressure etc. Looking at these stats and the many others metrics that you post here I am genuinely confused.

  14. Neanderthal Economist says:

    As a potential buyer, this chart is frustrating to look at because high levels of shadow inventory tells me that banks are controlling prices and that’s not a good thing for those seeking value. Maybe they’ll dump onto market this year, crashing prices or maybe they’ll wait five years, when inflation is higher.

  15. JerseyDevil99 says:

    Mikeinwaiting it is a great time to buy and I am buying 2 homes. Seriously. Since it’s a fact great uncertainty surrounds the fate of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (if that’s a vehicle you need). I am out of attorney review and negotiating back and forth right now with bank on a short in Emerson, buying with an FHA and putting 3.5% down. I am also buying my dream vacation home in the Florida Keys, a Fannie Mae foreclosure wherein all I have to put down is 3%.

    I am paying about 50% of what these properties sold for in ’06 & ’07, downpayment is minimal, 30 year mortgages, interest rate terrific, this window of what you can do, if you have modest cash savings, good credit, solid work history is amazing!

    Now is a great time to buy, if you know how to buy. These conditions and options for the buyer are not guaranteed to be here in place going forward. Just an opinion.

  16. veets (16)-

    Your assumptions imply that the banksters have a plan. Trust me when I tell you that they do not. They are simply wishing for some planet-shaking deus ex machina event to sprinkle fairy dust on the Amerikan economy and make it all better in one fell swoop. This is really their only hope, as by any legitimate analysis, they are all dead, permanently-insolvent entities that should be shut down and broken up immediately.

    There is only on overriding strategy common to all banksters: to completely appropriate every penny of wealth available in the US via the ongoing slow-motion bank robbery of the public fisc. To this end, they have fully engaged the gubmint as an accomplice and enforcer.

  17. Sooner or later, the scheme by which this country has propped up its tattered, sham facade of an economy will completely unravel…and at that point, all bets are off.

  18. grim says:

    14 – Deal makes sense, doesn’t go much deeper than that. Nice house with lots of potential in a good neighborhood. The value prop on this deal is even better than the short sale that failed. If I was willing to jump in at that point, hy wouldn’t I jump on an even better deal now?

    Besides, I’m still sticking to my predictions and don’t see considerable downside at this point in time. An additional 5-7 or so, nothing major, and then flat for years.

  19. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “Your assumptions imply that the banksters have a plan. Trust me when I tell you that they do not.”
    Maybe if we didn’t change all the accounting rules in favor of the banks I might agree a little bit bit they do have a plan, to wait it out while writing down the asset. Time is their friend. Plus the economy is stabilizing so as long as there is not a large unexpected double dip, it will probably pay off and judging from q1 bank earnings it already is.

  20. gary says:

    From Last Night:

    172.FoxNews says:
    April 14, 2011 at 6:30 pm
    White mediocrity is screwed going forward, deal with it. Indian and Chinese professionals are the growth sector. We’re smarter than you, we work harder than you, and we’re taking over your neighborhoods, just look around.

    You can have an IQ of 190, work 90 hours per week and save every penny but it’s not going to make a difference. You know why? You lack moxie… you lack passion and you lack emotion and those are qualities you can’t teach. It’s inate. That’ the difference between champions and pretenders. You’re “here” instead of “there” because you have the desire to emulate because you lack the ability to create. Deal with it.

  21. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Devil it would seem you are acting prudently using their money minimal use of your own capital. I gather you are prepared for the possibility of being in negative territory for a period of time. It has been discussed here at length that low rates make the monthly PITI look good I do however have a nagging suspicion that they will go up as inflation rears its ugly head . There will be no wage inflation so prices will go south that along with demographics for the USA would put me off. Good luck hope it works out for you.

  22. flyover says:

    A party I met when relocating here in 2008 wishes to sell a condo in the Madison WI market. They realize that, having bought in 2006 , they will lose money. An offer was made to buy with a hard-line provision that the sale not close until Fall because their ‘house might have sold by then’ and they would be busy in the Summer. This seems a strange offer.


    BTW the former ‘Boken is himself preparing to return to the old haunts, but will probably try to avoid NJ, perhaps Westchester on a train line since the office is now close to Grand Central.

  23. yo'me says:

    BofA Posts First Profit in Three Quarters on Lower Credit Costs

    Bank of America Corp. , the largest U.S. lender by assets, reported its first profit in three quarters and settled more claims tied to faulty mortgages as an improving economy helped borrowers keep up with debts.

  24. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Grim 19 Ok go for it. You are young and want to put down roots. I guess 5-7% may hold true for your area, flat for sure going forward with a bias to the downside. You know my market different sit. more pain to come in a big way. At 50 with 1 more in school for 4 more years it makes no sense for me. Out of NJ then, no hurry best case flat and if rates rise prices go south.

  25. veets (20)-

    Are you really Steve Liesman? The only economy that’s recovering is the imaginary one we’re presented on CNBC every day.

  26. 1 in 8 on food stamps, and trending higher. Don’t talk to me about economic recovery until that number changes.

    I’d also suspect that any lowering of that number in the near future would be due to the gubmint engaging in falsifying it.

  27. Confused In NJ says:

    The first two homes I bought were to raise a family, in a decent neighborhood, in my case New Providence Nj. Home as Investment was not on my radar. That worked out well, until taxes went insane starting with the 1997 reevaluation. My next home was a Townhouse in Berkeley Heights which lasted from 2003 until 2006, as the combination of Taxes & Common Fees rendered it a bad decision. My current home appears to fit the bill, with reasonable affordable taxes. None of my homes were ever purchased with Investment thoughts in mind, although that mentality, in part, is what helped fuel the Housing Asset Bubble. I think as long as you can afford it, buy the house which is right for you, in the town which is right for you, to live in, not invest in. A lot harder to do today, because of overhead costs like taxes. Untill 1997 my homes were not milking cows for the Public Sector vis a vis, ridiculous Property Taxes, which grew year to year exponentialy. House prices had to grow high enough to generate mortgages which would be greater then the property taxes, lest the homeowner realize the taxes are out of whack. We wouldn’t want you to have a mortgage costing $12K per year based upon the real value of the house, if your property taxes are $16K per year. You might think something was wrong?

  28. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Not to worry Debt unemployment is down , oops forgot to look at the participation rate.
    Now back to your regularly scheduled cheer leading, all is well the government knows best.

  29. Lone Ranger says:

    There is a game plan; debase and inflate. Any monkey could make a mint borrowing at 0% and lending at 3-4%. The fed’s plan is buy time, attempt to shore [no pun] up balance sheets and hope that inflation, along with a recovery, will be the solution. Unfortunately, there is no recovery; it’s simply central bankers on steroids. If you took away QE, GDP would be negative and fat fingers would be crushing the market.

    Inflate the debt away and support RE prices? Bergabe says high crb prices are fleeting. Well, the world’s markets gave him a good, old fashioned Bronx cheer for that comment. He doesn’t understand one simple principle. Once the genie is out of the bottle, the genie is in charge, not some print happy mathematician.

  30. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Confused “House prices had to grow high enough to generate mortgages which would be greater then the property taxes, lest the homeowner realize the taxes are out of whack. We wouldn’t want you to have a mortgage costing $12K per year based upon the real value of the house, if your property taxes are $16K per year. You might think something was wrong?”
    We are almost there in my neck of the about 3k off if you put down 3.5 FHA taxes 6k mortgage 9.6 k. People might start asking questions. Now if you put down a nice chunk of change you would be storming town hall.

  31. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Debt, a banks definition of improving economy and ours are two different things. Ie That high unemployment equals lower overhead. Besides that, stock market, cpi, gdp, unemployment, factory output, corp revenues, etc etc. All up.

  32. No doubt that with the level of denial, deceit and corruption baked into every element of Amerikan society, that when the wheels come off (and indeed, they will). everything will disintegrate in spectacular fashion.

  33. 3b says:

    #19 Even with this article yous till only see another 5-7% decline? My own humble opinion says another 10-15%, if for no other reason than to compensate for the out of control property taxes.

  34. grim says:

    The fed’s plan is buy time, attempt to shore [no pun] up balance sheets and hope that inflation, along with a recovery, will be the solution.

    Agree wholeheartedly

  35. 3b says:

    #20 JP Morgan is struggling with their mtg business. The profits did not come form that sector. I a so believe there was creative accounting mentioned as far as not acknowledging losses. Just saying.

  36. grim says:

    34 – Nominal, not real, but yes.

  37. Put another way, the plan is to use free money and a steep curve to recapitalize, while simultaneously destroying the currency and turning a large segment of the population into paupers.

  38. Santelli on rant over obvious Fed goalseeking of the numbers.

  39. gary says:

    Liesman goes on a 1000 word explanation trying to make his point and Santelli rips him to shreds using one sentence.

  40. 3b says:

    #22 Mike: If one was buying a modest price house ( use your own definition), but lets say 350 to 400K, then I believe it makes perfect sense to go FHA, and prices decline further then you have not lost much. Plus if prices remain flat for years (after they finish declining), then just look at the house as a long term rental, if you plan to stay 10 or more years.

  41. grim says:

    if for no other reason than to compensate for the out of control property taxes.

    I think this point is playing out very differently from how you imagine it. We’re seeing local towns that were never known for high property taxes or high tax increases making huge jumps upward. You used to be able to find towns that were a tax refuge in NJ, but not any longer. You used to see outrageously cheap taxes in Morris County, when compared to Essex next door. Not anymore, taxes appear, IMHO, to be equalizing across large swaths of NJ. Likewise, folks from over the rivers to the North and West are saying the same, they moved up and left for affordability, but now taxes are skyrocketing.

    When taxes are high everywhere, their relative impact on price dynamics is minimized. When tax hikes are localized, their impact on pricing is much higher (ex. West Orange during the earlier parts of the bubble).

    In the latter scenario, you’ll find value by identifying which towns will increase tax rates the slowest over the next 10 years. Perhaps look at towns with the lowest levels of per-household debt? Most stable cash flows/ratables? Prudent fiscal management? Ability to add additional commercial ratables through development?

  42. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “Are you really Steve Liesman?”

  43. gary (40)-

    Lying is always a complicated business.

  44. Four Clasicos in 18 days. All kinds of key players hurt for Barca, and Mourinho is probably drinking human blood for breakfast by now.

    My real life sucks. My life as a soccer fan can’t get any better.

  45. Lone Ranger says:


    Any upcoming tilts in the land of fish & chips?

  46. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “34 –Nominal, not real, but yes.”

    3b. 2 yrs ago everyone clarified their nj home price predictions, im sure you remember. So far, grims forecast is one of the most accurate on record, including jpm, otteau, deutche bank and many of the regulars here. I’ll update and repost the chart soon. But I don’t see any reason why grim needs to adjust his original 30-40% correction call. Even with all the shadow, the 50% armaggedon crash scenario is still less likely today than two years ago. imo.

  47. gary says:

    But I don’t see any reason why grim needs to adjust his original 30-40% correction call.

    We’re down 20% from peak with another 20% to go.

  48. Mikeinwaiting says:

    3b 41 agreed as I posted to Devil , use there money do not risk your capital. If it all goes to sh*t, walk.

  49. 3b says:

    #42 Town That we are pretty sure we will go to, has taxes that average anywhere form 3 to 4K a year or more. Th tax increases have been averaging 3-5& a year vs. 7 to 8% where I am now. Town does not have the blue ribbony thing working, and apparently from what I have been told does not have the cachet.

    I don’t need the ribbon any more (thought it was a bunch of silliness anyhow), and was never into the cachet thing.

  50. grim says:

    g – closer to 25% off peak pricing at this time, additional 5-7% would put us at 30-32% off peak.

  51. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Cool Vets: The Chart! Fanfare please.

  52. JJ says:

    I say we pass a law that anyone who is subprime sludge who has defaulted on a mortgage after cashing out should spend life as a Mets/Nets/Islanders fan. Also throw in the Bengals for extra punishment. I think we all can agree that would satisfy the rest of us hard working tax payers.

    Debt Supernova says:
    April 15, 2011 at 8:46 am

    Four Clasicos in 18 days. All kinds of key players hurt for Barca, and Mourinho is probably drinking human blood for breakfast by now.

    My real life sucks. My life as a soccer fan can’t get any better.

  53. 3b says:

    #49 Mike: I know it is weird, but I almost feel dirty, or like a loser going the FHA route, but it makes perfect sense for me. Next house will be until retirement, so I am looking at it as a long term rental, nothing more.

  54. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “Not to worry Debt unemployment is down , oops forgot to look at the participation rate.”
    Mikey, got to dig deeper than this. Participation is just one variable. Don’t isolate. Spend some time at bls website. The number of jobs are growing, not shrinking. Read some regional economic reports. Hiring is expected to continue increasing, not surge or boom, but steadily increase through 2011 and 2012.

  55. chicagofinance says:

    clot: opinion on farm property in NJ…50 acres within 50 miles of NYC access to major highways?

  56. grim says:

    57 – Does it have 6 zeros after the leading digit?

  57. Entire Taibbi article now available online:

    “Now, following an act of Congress that has forced the Fed to open its books from the bailout era, this unofficial budget is for the first time becoming at least partially a matter of public record. Staffers in the Senate and the House, whose queries about Fed spending have been rebuffed for nearly a century, are now poring over 21,000 transactions and discovering a host of outrages and lunacies in the “other” budget. It is as though someone sat down and made a list of every individual on earth who actually did not need emergency financial assistance from the United States government, and then handed them the keys to the public treasure. The Fed sent billions in bailout aid to banks in places like Mexico, Bahrain and Bavaria, billions more to a spate of Japanese car companies, more than $2 trillion in loans each to Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, and billions more to a string of lesser millionaires and billionaires with Cayman Islands addresses. “Our jaws are literally dropping as we’re reading this,” says Warren Gunnels, an aide to Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. “Every one of these transactions is outrageous.”

  58. JJ says:

    Reuters) – Municipal bond defaults tumbled in the first quarter compared with a year ago, casting further doubt on a bold prediction that a wave of defaults would rock the $2.9 trillion U.S. municipal bond market in 2011.

    Only nine issues defaulted in the quarter, down 59 percent from the 2010 period.

    Late last year Wall Street analyst Meredith Whitney — who made her reputation by predicting in 2007 that Citigroup would need a massive capital infusion — spooked individual investors when she predicted 50 to 100 “sizable defaults” by local governments amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars.

    I told you so. JJ

  59. gary says:

    The number of jobs are growing, not shrinking.

  60. Ranger (46)-

    Playing Ironbound in State Cup sometime in the next three weeks, but looks like we’ll play them at Rider.

  61. No fish & chips in Lawrenceville.

  62. 3b says:

    JC From Last night thats for theinfo. I was just looking on a goggle map, and saw those streets up near the lake/IHA. Lake is nice but don’t need it. Would like a quiet street, but little through traffic is OK. As far as for upscale and all, must be a suburban thing, the old my town is better than your town, and then my part of town is better than your part of town. I always get a laugh out of it. We hope to take a drive around this weekend at some point.

  63. veets (56)-

    In other news, Santa Claus has been proven to exist and flying unicorns are presenting a challenge to commercial aviation traffic.

    “Spend some time at bls website. The number of jobs are growing, not shrinking. Read some regional economic reports. Hiring is expected to continue increasing, not surge or boom, but steadily increase through 2011 and 2012.”

    BLS = Bureau of Lies

  64. “The number of jobs are growing, not shrinking.”

    Is that before- or after- the birth/death adjustment?

  65. 1 in 8 on food stamps.

    Hungry don’t lie.

  66. chi (57)-

    Does it have a bomb shelter?

  67. Lone Ranger says:

    BLS? Is that where Baghdad Bob landed?

  68. Neanderthal Economist says:

    BLS = Bureau of Lies

    Sorry bro. Don’t agree.
    If you think bls is exaderating numbers you should see what shadowstats is doing.

  69. Publius says:


  70. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Veto I got it from the bls. I also saw what you are referring to, not enough yet, and what kind of jobs are we talking about. We have a problem of structural unemployment, the skill set of many out of work will no longer be in demand. Taking guys doing 50 to 80 k with bennies who are now lucky to get 30-35 without is not a good thing. For the 48 and over crowd it is a death sentence of poverty, please refer to food stamp increases. A good portion of working males are f**ked being a large demographic, tail end boomers I am not as optimistic as you. You sit where you stand , I fall into that group.

  71. Lone Ranger says:

    Jobs? This debacle blew out close to 10 M jobs. At this point, approx 17% have returned. That said, go calculate B/D BS along with those working part time, since it’s their only option. Now add up contract workers w/o benefits. You come to the realization that there is no recovery, it’s a bunch of bull, lies and shit. This is what 4-5T buys? What does that equate to; 1-2M spent for every job created?

    Subprime is contained, the housing market is sound, there will be no national decline in RE prices, derivatives disperse risk, inflation is fleeting and now BLS states that jobs are being created? If this wasn’t so sad it would be comical.

  72. Kettle1^2 says:


    regarding your prediction chart, recall that my projection is in “real” adjusted terms not nominal. there is a definite difference between the 2. i havent run the numbers lately so dont where we are are on those curves at the moment.

  73. It is both sad and comical. It is also Amerika’s welcome to permanent Third World status.

  74. Exaderating = want fries with that?

  75. gary says:

    The 450 jobs is an estimate, Russo said, but the building needs to be ready for whatever number is hired.

    Like taking a p1ss in the ocean. 450 “estimated” jobs in vast wasteland of lies and deception. Smile for the photo opportunity, Chuckie! And where exactly is Schenectady? Is that North of Kinnelon?

  76. Kettle1^2 says:

    Veto 71

    Do you feel that shadow stats is inaccurately following the pre 1980 methodology or that they are actively massaging the numbers?

  77. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Let me see Veto has 450 good jobs maybe 1-2 k more if the stars line up right Gary has 50k would you like fries with that. Vets you sure you like where this is going buddy.

  78. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “You come to the realization that there is no recovery.”
    This might be true if you are comparing the greatest bubble economy in history to the new normal. But full employment is never coming back. We are stabilizing/improving at/from lower levels.

  79. Mikeinwaiting says:

    3b 55 be dirty take the FHA put.

  80. Juice Box says:

    How about those workers from mexico and other places that went home where are they in the BLS stats? Oh right they aren’t counted literally.

  81. gary says:

    Let’s forward the good news to the former 130 Paterson cops who turned in their badges yesterday, as well.

  82. Mikeinwaiting says:

    My god , “We are stabilizing/improving at/from lower levels.” Veto is Liesman. I can not believe you posted that, you will get crucified.

  83. Neanderthal Economist says:

    ” recall that my projection is in “real” adjusted terms not nominal.”
    Oh don’t worry kettle. I rcopied everyones quotes too and put on the charts page so they couldn’t restate their opinion 2 yrs later. If I remember correctly you were way over 50%. Frankly doesnt matter nominal or real as they are both way off the mark so far. But we still have time.

  84. “We are stabilizing/improving at/from lower levels.” = Wil E Coyote, first step off the cliff, air running.

  85. gary says:

    The new normal is waiting tables at Olive Garden, numbers rackets and selling old iShit products on f*cking cra1gslist.

  86. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Veto, Gary, Debt and I SOL I guess but Micky Ds has a place for us.

  87. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “Like taking a p1ss in the ocean. 450 “estimated” jobs.”
    Gary. Got to read past headline. Its 1500 jobs plus complementary industries and the estimates are real. Its happening. Its a huge driver of high skilled jobs for that region, first of its kind. I can post at least 5 other positive articles like this, maybe not to this extent but there is alot of good news if you look. Hint: not going to find it here.

  88. Kettle1^2 says:

    Veto 86

    if bergabe gets his way a “real” price drop of 50% is easy.

  89. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Gary 84 now I wonder what they will do.

  90. gary says:

    the estimates are real.

    Sure, and it’s contained to subprime.

  91. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    New York manufacturing gauge best in a year

    Business conditions for New York state-based manufacturers in April were the best in a year as new orders surged, according to a survey of executives released Friday.

    The Empire State manufacturing survey rose for a fifth consecutive month in April, with general business conditions increasing over four points to a reading of 21.7, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said.

    Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a dip to 15.5, down from 17.5 for March.

    The new orders index for April jumped 17 points, to 22.3, and the shipments index shot up 27 points to 28.3, the New York Fed said.

    The indexes for both prices paid and prices received rose to their highest levels in more than a year, indicating that price increases continued to accelerate.

  92. stallan54 says:

    This is a bogus sensationalized absorption article. I don’t have time to post right now and pull it up, but if you look at the foreclosures files since 1/1/2008 and then look at the number of distressed homes sold, Cert Sales, Short Sales, etc, you will know that the rate of absorption is not 154 months. Just sayin…

  93. danxp says:


    since you’re the resident river edge/oradell expert, can you opine on the following two short sale properties?

    – 909 summit, river edge – $439k corner of midland/summit
    – 57 ackerman, oradell – $529k leased until 5/2012


  94. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Gary, im not dilusional. I know its a difficult economy compared to 2005. I myself took a 40% pay cut, while now working twice the hours. And im in my working prime with two grad degrees and experience in my field. Leave house at 6am and get home at 9 or 10. Don’t see my child until sat. All just to keep whatever I’ve got, not even thinking raise or promotion. Maybe this is the new normal. I hope not. But to ignore the improvements or positives just because they’re not happening where/how you expect wont help either.

  95. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Veto I think I posted that 1-2 k extra jobs from your link. I understand that there are some decent jobs being created, but not for my demographic group. Some like Gary who have the skill set will either be outsourced , replaced by visa workers or younger guys. For others union construction, ex small business owners, middle managers a good job is like a unicorn, they ain’t coming back. I have been pro active and gone back to school while collecting, medical hands on can not be outsourced. Will I make what I did before, no but it is enough for a living.

  96. Lone Ranger says:

    If you go back and compare recessions, at this point in time we should be creating 400-500K “real” jobs and GDP should be expanding at a 5-6% clip. OOPS forgot, minus mark to fantasy, a fed balance sheet on steroids, a dying currency, and the greatest treasury bubble ever created.

    Yet, we should all take comfort; we have lowered the floor and are dancing along the bottom, while Bergabe and Congress are blowing out the ceiling. We do I buy long dated, good faith and credit paper?

  97. Neanderthal Economist says:

    91 Ket. Id say its possible not likely. But that’s only my opinion. I respect yours and everyone elses, even while attempting to poke holes in them as often as possible.

  98. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Grim 95 I am leaving that blowing post to JJ, there is just so much material there.
    Veto 98 40% pay cut hours from hell and you still keep an optimistic view, god bless ya.

  99. gary says:

    The Bernank Model:

    And as soon as the deliveries are made in the front door, you move the stuff out the back and sell it at a discount. You take a two hundred dollar case of booze and you sell it for a hundred. It doesn’t matter. It’s all profit. And then finally, when there’s nothing left, when you can’t borrow another buck from the bank or buy another case of booze, you bust the joint out. You light a match.

  100. Mikeinwaiting says:

    94 Grim do not know enough about that index to read a lot into it but one thing did get my attention prices paid & charged higher, inflation? Still wondering where the demand is coming from.

  101. JJ says:

    I am reading the book “Get Rid of the Performance Review” and in it I fully understand why most people in America are in trouble. The 21-35 year old crowd view it as an opportunity to get self fulfilment, be told they are great, be told they will be promoted, get a raise get a bonus etc. It is all me me me. Also book says employees have great ideas they need to express them they need to have input they need to work on stuff that fulfills them.

    When I get or give one my view is I am being told what I did wrong the year before so I can do better next year. If the review last 5 seconds it means I did nothing wrong.

    My job and my employees jobs is to do whatever the boss tells them as long as it is not immoral, illegal or unethical. They don’t get it. I once tried to explain, lets say your toliet is overflowing and you call a plumber and he wants to discuss how he feels, his career aspirations, wants to take a break all while you are paying him by the hour, you would say don’t care just fix the toliet. Somehow they don’t realize at review time I wanted the toliet fixed and that is it.

  102. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Gary the fed as “Good Fellas” LOL, worse part is it fits.

  103. gary says:

    And that’s that.

  104. Mikeinwaiting says:

    JJ 105 Life as a john how fitting.

  105. A.West says:

    Incidentally, the US can’t inflate its way out of debt. It can try, and probably will try, but so much borrowing is rolled over on a short term basis that when investors someday come to their senses and start to charge higher interest rates for the treasury to borrow at, the higher cost of new borrowing will more than make up for the depreciation of old debt.

    The current incredibly low borrowing rates for the US Treasury right now are one reason that government WILL NOT reduce deficits. These low rates are of course currently relying on the dumbest money in the world – central bank buying (US and foreign). It’s only when the rates get hiked that the government will be forced to cut spending, but by then it will be too late. Budget cutters have difficulty arguing “we’re going broke” when the government can borrow more cheaply than its entire history. This is the biggest government market manipulation of all – manipulating the cost of its own funding, until it can’t.
    “How did you go bankrupt?” “Two ways, gradually and then suddenly”
    Hemmingway, “The Sun Also Rises”

  106. Mikeinwaiting says:

    A. West 109 yes that is going to end well.

  107. grim (94)-

    Too bad this is the most important part of that statement:

    “The indexes for both prices paid and prices received rose to their highest levels in more than a year, indicating that price increases continued to accelerate.”

    Also: no mentions of wage inflation anywhere in the media today.

  108. gary says:


    Exactly. So, we’re to believe all theses index numbers, consensus numbers, projections, estimations and all the rest of the bullsh1t. This is all supposed to be legitimate – the same way the mob, who never exisisted, were legit as well. What do the Administration, the FED and the mob have in common? Absolutely everything. All smoke and mirriors to placate the sausage finger masses.

  109. grim (95)-

    That lady should get Bernank and his crew in on it. Guinness record would be a lock.

  110. (103)-

    Post of the Year.

  111. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “40% pay cut hours from hell and you still keep an optimistic view.”
    im only optimistic compared to this blog. In the real world im considered slightly negative. I consider my outlook realistic, although we all have our own realities.
    You’ve got to open the view imo. Look at 2003. Everyone was looking at nasdaq for signs of recovery and they couldn’t find it. They were looking at the wrong thing. Just like today. Forget housing for a minute. Look at energy and other new sectors that didn’t even exist 5 yrs ago. They have potential to bring huge improvements to the world. The economy is shifting/changing.

  112. mikey (104)-

    Behold, the paradox known as stagflation. Sort of the economic equivalent of taking it airtight and skiing.

    “Grim do not know enough about that index to read a lot into it but one thing did get my attention prices paid & charged higher, inflation? Still wondering where the demand is coming from.”

  113. A.West says:

    I get a sense that your work is somehow related to HR. You seem to do a lot of interviewing and reviewing.
    I do some interviewing of both 40 somethings and 20 somethings. Analysts and analyst assistants. What I most look for in analysts is whether the applicant has created some sort of rational structure in their thought process, can think critically and independently, is willing to challenge consensus, and can coherently express their thoughts. For jr positions, that would be nice, but they have to demonstrate that they can focus, have sharpened their technical skills, and are competent to do quantitative tasks carefully, quickly, and semi-independently. And are willing to admit “I don’t know”, or “I can’t do it” to someone senior to them rather than give bogus results.

    Needless to say, it takes my firm forever to find people that meet this criteria.

  114. veets (115)-

    You really should lay off the glue huffing.

  115. Lone Ranger says:

    “Everyone was looking at nasdaq for signs of recovery and they couldn’t find it. They were looking at the wrong thing. Just like today.”


    Exactly. The fed is trying desperately to reflate a once in a lifetime market. They are pissing in the wind. Let the sh*t implode and build back thru savings and investment, productive and intellectual capacity, new technologies. Forget it, they have decided to take the Wantapoulous route.

    Nothing left to do but hop on board.

  116. Nicholas says:


    I just had my annual review with my boss. In that review, I sat down with her for one hour at my request to outline some important things for me. I think you are mistaking the “performance review” as something that is supposed to benefit you. In reality it is more to the benefit the employee. Although I didn’t communicate in this direct of fashion with my manager I set out to establish three things.

    1. Performance
    2. Pay
    3. Promotion

    Since we don’t communicate often during the year as I’m pretty much self directed I set about detailing the amount and quality of work that I had done on behalf of our group and company, projects I participated in, and my direct contributions.

    On the pay issue, I asked questions such as “how do you reward top performers” and “what is your benchmark for being a top performer”. I then presented my definition of great performance and showed how what I had done met my definition and how it had met my managers definitions.

    I then talked about moving to the next level. I have a set of expectations, my manager has a set of expectations, and the team has a set of expectations for promotion. For some strange reason, these set of expectations never meet. The performance review would be the opportunity to normalize expectations between manager and employee.

    You may have employees that dont think like this and are happy where they are and really could care less about performance, pay, and promotions but for those who do have ambition/aspiration not letting them have an outlet to communicate with you will likely see them move to other departments/jobs. Those who are thinking about performance and pay are the easiest to motivate to do the right thing. Use the performance review as an opportunity to put them on the right path.

    My managers response was, “I like your ability to be flexible and pick up new skills as they are necessary, I know that our customers needs change quickly and you have done a good job adjusting. I know time is in short supply but if you need try additional courses at your local college, or short courses feel free to enroll”. Ego boost? probably but more importantly she communicated to me that maintaining technological mastery is important.

    The performance review is a give and take where the employee attempts to redefine his role in the organization and the employer sets the terms for shift.

    Yes JJ I am one of those 35 year olds who you wish didn’t have to deal with.

  117. UpstateNY says:

    A thought on job creation during the recovery. I’ve argued for some time that the BLS and the talking heads on CNBC view all jobs as created equally, but if you look at the data on jobs lost and jobs gained you’ll see that we’ve lost a disproportionate number of high wage private sector jobs and they are being replaced by low wage private sector jobs. In the eyes of the BLS a job is a job, but to the software engineer now stocking shelves at Lowes it’s another story.

    High wage jobs – lost 3.5 million during the recession, gained 179k during the recovery.

    Mid wage jobs – lost 3.23 mil, gained 468k

    Low wage jobs – lost 2.1 mil, gained 613k

    Chart is here:

    I’m hearing that lots of retail “hiring” is to shift the composition of the workforce from 1 full-time employee to 2 part-timers. Again, this adds net 1 new job in the eyes of the BLS, but it really eats away the core of the middle class as the part-timers are paid less and are not eligible for benefits. Right now this is just chatter, but with a few more examples we might be able to identify a trend.

  118. In the new Amerika, the only reward/compensation for individual performance or overperformance is possibly being able to keep one’s job…albeit with pay cuts, benefit cuts and longer hours.

    If the job can be outsourced to someone or somewhere that promises even a simulation of competence, it will be.

  119. upstate (121)-

    Evidently, you’ve missed the memo that the business of Amerika is individuals selling each other fraudulent investments, underwater real estate, useless consumer goods and hamburgers.

  120. cobbler says:

    nova [123]
    We were destined to get here by making 2 assumptions, probably as early as in 1970s:
    – Future belongs to the services, not to production
    – You are a failure if you don’t go to college

    and one in the 80s: free trade is always good

    The three together created a very large IED under the way of life and societal structure that used to exist here.

  121. danxp says:

    i’ll repost so anyone that may have some insight on these short sale listings can offer their opinion…

    – 909 summit, river edge – $439k corner of midland/summit
    – 57 ackerman, oradell – $529k leased until 5/2012


  122. 3b says:

    #97 dan: The listing in RE. Summit Ave is a nice older street in town. Some residents and Realtors would say it is the finest street in RE, due to quite a few old homes/couple of mansions on the street. However, it is a cut through to KKR, and Paramus. Corner of Midland and Summit is a tough location. I would guess the taxes on that house are around 12k, or will be after this years increase.

    Midland is an incredibly busy, busy street. Of course Summit is close to one of the towns elementary schools which is on Summit, and close to both the middle and HS.

    Ackerman is a nice block in a very nice area of Oradell; it is also west of KKR, which is considered more desirable. If you are fixated on RE and Oradell, I would go with Oradell. Not familiar with the taxes on that house.

  123. sas3 says:

    Cobbler, you missed the trickle-on economics… and the evolution of political discourse into a spectator sport involving 30-second sound bytes.

  124. Lone Ranger says:

    Joe Battipaglia?

  125. nj escapee says:

    yeah, he passed yesterday at 55.

  126. cobbler says:

    sastri [127]
    What you’ve mentioned contributes to our inability to get out of the death loop, but by itself didn’t cause it.

  127. Anon E. Moose says:

    JJ [105];

    My job and my employees jobs is to do whatever the boss tells them as long as it is not immoral, illegal or unethical. They don’t get it. I once tried to explain, lets say your toliet is overflowing and you call a plumber and he wants to discuss how he feels, his career aspirations, wants to take a break all while you are paying him by the hour, you would say don’t care just fix the toliet. Somehow they don’t realize at review time I wanted the toliet fixed and that is it.

    I’m comming to learn why Wall Street pays illogical sums to its employees, they have to. No same individual one would put up with that lifestyle even for low six figures.

    “do whatever the boss tells them as long as it is not immoral, illegal or unethical.” That’s one hell of a unifying business principal there. Its a big world, and there are lots of things to do and lots of reasons to do them. If you called the fish monger and demanded his fix your toilet NOW, he’d likely tell you to f- off, even if you were waving a couple of hundreds that a plumber might charge.

  128. Shore Guy says:

    I know for a fact the economy is creating jobs. In the last year alone, I recall that Stu has taken-on two additional jobs.

  129. danxp says:

    thanks 3b…

    from the pics, looks like the ackerman house is in much better condition…

    you’re right about the taxes for the summit house… $12.3k for $479k assessed, but if i were to ever buy it, my approach would be to appeal with a sale price of much lower than the assessed value… not sure if that would stick tho… are appeals in these towns typically successful?

  130. Shore Guy says:

    A few months back, I did some work for a government that shall remain nameless. The workk did not take long, like two days, so the bill was small +/- $10,000. The months go by and I send a follow-up invoice, then, after not hearing, I call:

    Me: Where is my money?

    Government Official: I will check. May I call you back?

    Me: I will hold.

    GO: It could be awhile.

    Me: It has already. I will hold.

    extended wait on hold

    GO: Yes, they have the invoice.

    Me: I know that. What I want to know is when I will have a check from the treasury of the people of X.

    GO: They don’t know.

    Me: Why not?

    GO: We don’t have any money. It could be several months.

    Me: This is a small amount of money we are talking about. You mean to tell me the Government of X can’t pay its bills?

    GO: You don’t really want to know the truth of it.

  131. homeboken says:

    Debt 62 – When I was 17, we played Ironbound in Ironbound. Field was a surrounded by barbed wire fence in the middle of a trucking yard.

    Brutal game, we were up 1-0, opposing coach instructs his players (in Portugese) to purposely injure our keeper (who was lights out). Our coach who (brazilian) understands every word. Ironbound coach punches our coach in nose, breaks it, riot breaks out, players beating each other, then Ironbound fans join the fray.

    Game stopped with 20 minutes to go, we escaped Newark with police escort. The ride West on 280 never felt so good.

  132. Shore Guy says:

    Coming to a government near you.

  133. Shore Guy says:


    It sounds like some football games down in Camden.

  134. JJ says:

    Bottom line your boss, kicked the can down the road by telling you that you need to take some courses. This may surprise you but since the day I had my first staff person reporting to me. Six months after college graduation. Which is many years ago I never had one single person quit on me or did I have to fire one single person. I did counsel out some people, in other words I worked with them to find them a better career or job and gave them references. But no one has ever walked into my office and quit. In fact I am on a six year streak right now of zero turnover.

    I say do A, B, C and D and I will promote or give you a good raise. If you don’t do A, B, C and D that won’t happen. Most people apologize to me for getting a bad review. I told them what to do and they did not do it. Several people have told me I was only PM who actually told them what to do. I also believe the reason you do your job is why I don’t fire you. Give me a little more. Just like a wife candidate. It is the extras that count, one girl I was dating want to be Mrs. JJ, I could tell after only a few weeks of dating. She asked for to borrow my key to use once only on a Friday with explanation that she knows I get home at six pm and she wanted would be next to my house around 4pm and did not want to wait outside, said she would bring some food. Ok, I bite against my judgement. I was set for some Chinese food and a quickie.

    What did I get, girl came three hours early, cleaned apartment, set table, candles, plates, had two two pound lobsters, corn, cheese cake, two bottles of wine, a short nightee and served a great meal followed by a quickie, desert and a movie she bought with her followed by a massage and full service. Even better she told me she sleeps in the nude in case her man has needs in middle of night. Then in morning she got me breakfast and another quickie and then gave me back key and left before the awark time.

    That girl would have got a very good performance review. Not only did she do everything I wanted but did everything I could have thought of. In her review I certainly would not have asked her to take a few more courses. She was completely trained. Trouble is she never got the promotion to wife as she peaked early, she set bar so high in week four of relationship that by my six month review I was disappointed with her. Another problem with picking a point in time to do a review it is how I feel that day. What you did six months earlier is no longer important. Poor girl. Funny thing is years later I found out she eloped with a guy to Vegas and got married after two weeks of dating. Wait till that guy finds out six months down the road he is getting cold chinese food instead of Lobster and a movie.

    Nicholas says:

    April 15, 2011 at 10:44 am


    I just had my annual review with my boss. In that review, I sat down with her for one hour at my request to outline some important things for me. I think you are mistaking the “performance review” as something that is supposed to benefit you. In reality it is more to the benefit the employee. Although I didn’t communicate in this direct of fashion with my manager I set out to establish three things.

  135. REdweller says:

    danxp re: 909 summit, river edge

    River Edge is selling at 91% – 93% of asking. It’s proven to be one of the strongest markets in NJ through these tough times and people buy there. For context, Maplewood is just shy of triple the inventory of River Edge yet has sold a very small fraction of the number of properties sold so far in River Edge in ’11 so far. Right now there are 8 properties in contract in fact.

    I suspect 909 Summit will be approved by the bank at $385-$400K. You see its early ’03 sale price of $415K, part of the ramp up years. In NJ shorts are selling on average at a 25% discount per Otteau. Largely depends on who the lender is.

    Having said all this, I sense River Edge’s ability to retain values without deep plunges we see elsewhere is fading. But I would not sit on the sidelines if it’s a property you like in RE. If it’s in decent shape, it will be snapped up this Spring or Summer.

  136. Shore Guy says:

    Was it Camden HS and Woodrow Wilson that used to have to play at a neutral and undisclosed field for safety reasons?

  137. JJ says:

    The boss is smarter than you most of the time, yet most of the time the staff thinks they are smarter. Most people I worked for were smarter than me.

    Anon E. Moose says:
    April 15, 2011 at 11:34 am

    JJ [105];

    My job and my employees jobs is to do whatever the boss tells them as long as it is not immoral, illegal or unethical. They don’t get it. I once tried to explain, lets say your toliet is overflowing and you call a plumber and he wants to discuss how he feels, his career aspirations, wants to take a break all while you are paying him by the hour, you would say don’t care just fix the toliet. Somehow they don’t realize at review time I wanted the toliet fixed and that is it.

    I’m comming to learn why Wall Street pays illogical sums to its employees, they have to. No same individual one would put up with that lifestyle even for low six figures.

  138. chicagofinance says:

    grim says:
    April 15, 2011 at 9:04 am
    57 – Does it have 6 zeros after the leading digit?

    I’m thinking it fits in between $2M-$5M…..probably to the lower bound. I could use a consultant……hint, hint realtor dudes…..warning…hairy tennis ball….

  139. Kettle1^2 says:

    JJ 138

    So your saying that Nicholas should have prepared a surprise lobster dinner for his boss followed by a massage and an offer of “extras” if he wanted a raise and promotion?

  140. Anon E. Moose says:

    JJ [141];

    The boss is smarter than you most of the time,

    The Peter Principle says otherwise.

  141. chicagofinance says:

    Nick: To be clear, it depends on the organization. Unless your company is in an acute growth stage, the focus of your boss is to keep qualified and over qualified people in relevant work for as long as possible.

    You cannot artificially create some process yourself. Find a mentor (hopefully your bosses’ boss or three levels up). If you do not have a mentor, then you are dead in the water. The only thing your pattern of behavior creates is acrimony, so you become a PIA.

  142. chicagofinance says:

    From the first day you started your position, her job is to keep you anchored for as long as possible (i.e. fix the toilet). Candid conversation is counterproductive to the primary goal, which is to stall, avoid etc…..the answer?

  143. chicagofinance says:

    grim WTF is wrong with ob-fus-cate?

  144. grim says:

    Ess see ay tee

  145. danxp says:

    REdweller (139),

    i checked the tax records for 909 summit and they actually bought in 06 for $485k… is there a way i can find out what the outstanding loan amount is?


  146. House Whine says:

    Right now I would say the biggest frustration that my co-workers and I are experiencing is management’s refusal to listen to ANY of our ideas or suggestions. We aren’t asking for better wages, hours, etc. This is a medical service industry and we are on the front line listening to patient’s concerns and complaints. While an annual review and performance appraisal would be nice, it’s the day to day grind that we think can be improved. In fact, we have so many ideas as to how to get their bottom line/profit to improve. Needless to say, staff ain’t to happy w/management. When you feel your voices don’t matter at all that is when you look elsewhere for a job. The turnover is high.

  147. home (135)-

    We have beaten them on that same field (the one right next to the river, actually in Kearny, is the one I think you’re referencing). Same crap pitch, same 1-0 result, same police escort out of town.

  148. grim says:

    i checked the tax records for 909 summit and they actually bought in 06 for $485k… is there a way i can find out what the outstanding loan amount is?

    Sold for $485,000 on 8/21/2006. Mortgage amount at closing was $388,000. You can run an amortization table based on that date to estimate the current balance.

  149. (138)-

    Another candidate for post of the year. Even if it was written by the guy who writes Mad Men.

  150. whine (150)-

    I think it’s more apt to say that you’re in the denial of medical service industry.

  151. danxp says:

    thanks grim (152)…

    how did you find out the mortgage amount? is there somewhere on the tax records that’ll tell you this?

    also, if the mortgage amount was $388, then why is it a short sale at $439k?

    second mortgage, i presume or heloc?

  152. REdweller says:

    149 danxp. it’s prolly in the early stages and has not been scheduled for sale by the bergen cnty sheriff. banks can control that, stall that, delay it, push it out, etc. as having a property even hit the sheriff’s auction schedule further depreciates the offers it can attract (buyer’s rightfully smell blood in the water).

    that house was bought 02/24/2003 for $415K, which is descent guidance of its value today as only in the early ramp up of the mortgages for all mess that boosted it’s ’06 sale price. lots of properties in bergen county are moving at their ’01-’02 prices and perhaps 5% off that. the numbers are really ‘juiced’ starting in ’03.

    i would guess in this situation the owner has counseled with a real estate atty and they approached the lender(bank) and are getting ahead of the ‘process’. banks will do this only so much before they say ‘enough’ and let the process play out, let the property hit the auction schedule.

    it’s tough to find out the judgment sans the bank taking the owner to court and securing the judgment (public record). people refi, use their homes as ATM machines, etc. there are companies that sell data and you can find out per the original purchase date the lender, downpayment and original mortgage amount. But that won’t reflect refi or how banks resell mortgages. Several banks can own a piece of this mortgage and it could have been resold several times. I though would not use that as guidance.

    I would use that ’03 sales date and price point. This house has been on the market for half a year? If it’s what I wanted, I would offer $385K, assuming all buyer closing cost, agree to buy ‘as-is’, contingent upon your approval after a home inspection, and present my offer with a mortgage commitment, not just an approval. Show certainty to close in 60 days, solves everyone’s problem. I would bet the owner would sign off, and the bank.

    This is just my opinion of what could get that house bought now somewhat below the radar. Once that house hits the sheriff auction log and or a $399K published price on the MLS, it will likely bring out a whole new market of buyers (or competition) for you. I would not let it get to that point if that’s the house you want.

  153. JJ says:

    God if it was only that easy I would be President. The Lobster was great, much better than that girl in Hedonism who was serving crabs.

    Kettle1^2 says:
    April 15, 2011 at 12:03 pm

    JJ 138

    So your saying that Nicholas should have prepared a surprise lobster dinner for his boss followed by a massage and an offer of “extras” if he wanted a raise and promotion?

  154. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: I went to lunch down the street in Red Bank…..who walks in?

  155. chicagofinance says:

    Your boy Wayne……

  156. chicagofinance says:

    grim says:
    April 15, 2011 at 12:34 pm
    Ess see ay tee

    ?? relating to feces?

  157. Mikeinwaiting says:

    JJ on a roll today.

  158. Lone Ranger says:

    Did Wayne have a bump on his head?

  159. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Let me re-post those numbers again, just in case someone was buying the crap from the cheer leaders.
    High wage jobs – lost 3.5 million during the recession, gained 179k during the recovery.

    Mid wage jobs – lost 3.23 mil, gained 468k

    Low wage jobs – lost 2.1 mil, gained 613k

    This will work out well how?

  160. danxp says:

    wow, great info redweller…

    i haven’t even looked at that house yet, so i could be getting way ahead of myself… with the market being the way it is, i’m not looking to be too hasty…

    but at the same time, there’s only so much time one can wait without having to factor in your kid’s education (or start of it)… my deadline is to get into a house/town before my kid gets into kindergarten in Sept 2012… so i got some time…

    i’ve been following this board for the past 4 years now and i thought by now prices would have gone even lower, but i’m seeing pockets of real improvement in the fancier towns… is it bottom yet?

  161. JJ says:

    Fat Man Stuck in Chair for Two Years Dies
    Bellaire Man Found Stuck in Chair Dies at 43
    Posted Wednesday, March 30, 2011 ; 03:50 PM
    Updated Wednesday, March 30, 2011; 04:22 PM

    Police said they found the man in deplorable conditions.

    BELLAIRE, Ohio — UPDATE March 30

    According to our radio news partner WKKX, the 43-year-old Bellaire man has died.

    Police said a Bellaire man had to be removed from his home on Washington Street Sunday.

    Police said the man’s skin had become attached to the fabric of the chair after he sat in it for two years

    Authorities said he was sitting in his own feces and urine and maggots were visible.

    Police were called in to help transfer the man to the hospital.

    Authorities said they had to cut a hole in the wall to get the man out of his home.

    Shockingly, two other able-bodied people lived there—another man, who had a separate bedroom, and the girlfriend of the man who was stuck in the chair. Officials say the girlfriend served food to him, since he never got up.

    Bellaire Code Enforcer Jim Chase says now the tennants have been given orders to clean it or leave it.

    One officer said it was the worst thing he ever responded to. And most said the worst part of all was the smell. Ironically the landlord says the man in the chair rented from her before and used to be a vital active person.

    She says she checked on them periodically but lately he always sat with a blanket over him. She says she had no idea it had come to this.

    Sunday morning his housemates called officials when he was unresponsive.

    The 43-year-old man is currently in the hospital.

    Police found an open laptop next to his chair that was open to the NJREREPORT blog. Apparently, for last two years he was waiting for the housing market to hit bottom, but unfortunately his own bottom gave out first.

  162. grim says:

    how did you find out the mortgage amount? is there somewhere on the tax records that’ll tell you this?

    Public record search, I use the NJMLS Tax/public records search.

    also, if the mortgage amount was $388, then why is it a short sale at $439k?

    Not sure, I don’t see another lien.

    second mortgage, i presume or heloc?

    I would typically see seconds in the records, but they aren’t always 100%.

  163. grim says:

    You know what, it was a countrywide loan, I didn’t actually look at the filed documents, but it could have potentially been a neg-am loan with a high rate where the owner paid the minimums. In that scenario the load balance could be higher now than at closing. In fact, given the timing it is darn possible that the seller could be approaching his/her neg am limit (110% of original bal, or near 426k). Factor in commission and you are in short territory. Huge speculation here though.

  164. Confused In NJ says:

    ATLANTA – A new report estimates that half the meat and poultry sold in the supermarket may be tainted with the staph germ.

    That estimate is based on 136 samples of beef, chicken, pork and turkey purchased from grocery stores in Chicago, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., Flagstaff, Ariz. and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

    Researchers found more than half contained Staphylococcus aureus, a bacteria that can make people sick. Worse, half of those contaminated samples had a form of the bacteria resistant to at least three kinds of antibiotics.

    Proper cooking should kill the germs. But the report suggests that consumers should be careful to wash their hands and take other steps not to spread bacteria during food preparation.

    The nonprofit Translational Genomics Research Institute in Arizona did the work.

    It’s still FDA approved!

  165. 3b says:

    #64 danxpFunny i am seeing the exact opposite. I am seeing the fancier towns finally starting to see some significant price declines including River Edge, and Oradell.

    Had a Realtor tell me a few years ago, theta you would never again see a house for under 500k in RE. Well the mls shows that there are around 30 to 40 House for sale now ranging from the high 200K to the mid 400K. And away from the eight that are under contract as per re dweller, most of the rest appear to be sitting. ALso 91 to 93% of their asking price?? Is that from their final asking price, or their original asking price. That is what I woudl wnat to know.

    Along with the price declines the 12k a year taxes for many of the starter houses.

  166. Lone Ranger says:

    Neg am, pick a pay, i/o, etc.. Damn shame when Mr Market does not want to cooperate.

  167. 3b says:

    #39 Property taxes are killing RE; it has finally reached that point. The prices will continue to coem down to compensate for the increase.

    12k a year in taxes for a modest cape or ranch, is simply insane.

  168. JJ says:

    I know I find it funny that they now want to put in property tax caps after it is at a 100 year high. How does that help. Also when you grieve your taxes the process is so slow it does not help you for a few years. I see houses paying 25k a year, by the time taxes are reduced they are out 100k.

    3b says:
    April 15, 2011 at 2:27 pm

    #39 Property taxes are killing RE; it has finally reached that point. The prices will continue to coem down to compensate for the increase.

    12k a year in taxes for a modest cape or ranch, is simply insane.

  169. Mikeinwaiting says:

    3b It’s for the children.

  170. 3b says:

    #72 What is really funny, is people who are leaving some towns ( and I am not just talking Seniors) because of the high property taxes, yet they somehow expect the new buyers to be able to afford the taxes and the high price; you simply cannot have it both ways.

  171. 3b says:

    #73 Nice legacy we have lef them.

  172. REdweller says:

    danxp, i am in the same boat as you (i have a 2 yr old and a 6 month old). 2 great elementary schools in river edge however cherry hill elementary has a pre-k program next to it for 3 yr olds and 4 yr olds (it’s on their website).

    i’m buying a short in river edge @ $285K (judgement on the property is around $415K). it’s a large house on a lousy street for river edge, however it did sell for around $485K during the peak years and it does get my kids in cherry hill elementary. our buy point though is allowing us to update the kitchen & baths as we want them.

    this is not our dream house by a long shot. it’s our ‘it will do’ house for the next 5-6 years that is well below our means and gives our kids a great educational path, worse case scenario (our household income going forward). (we own an apartment in manhattan and are keeping it, this will be our second mortgage).

    i don’t think you can ‘time’ a market bottom for River Edge. the place attracts a lot of people like you and me, looking to get our kids in a decent school district. This house you pointed to does not appear to be junk, in fact 2000+ sq’ with nice curb appeal, brick, and if you could get it under $400K sounds pretty darn good to me. I think about 20-25 homes have sold in River Edge so far in 2011, take a look at what people are paying, price/sq’ etc. I don’t think that’s going to be changing a whole heck of a lot going forward.

    It also sounds like you have the time to play the “buy a short game” in NJ, which has its risk, and can take 3, 6, 9, or 12 months, who knows. It’s that aspect of the home purchase that eliminates a lot of buying competition, however if priced low enough, people will endure it to get the value.

  173. chicagofinance says:

    some ancient history…….

    Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2006 11:24 AM
    To: Lafferty, Walt; Lyons, Dennis; Bowie, Jack
    Cc: Boroson, Warren
    Subject: Letter to Publisher and Editors
    Walt Lafferty – Publisher
    Dennis Lyons – Executive Editor
    Jack Bowie – Managing Editor

    Copy: Warren Boroson

    Dear Sirs:

    I wish to state how surprised and utterly appalled I am to find Warren Boroson offering false statements against James Bednar (a.k.a. Grim) for the comments that have appeared on occasion in the North New Jersey Real Estate blog that Mr. Bednar authors.

    To be clear, I have no connection to Mr. Bednar, and have only corresponded with him briefly through electronic communication. I otherwise have no relationship with him.

    As a regular reader and contributor to Mr. Bednar’s website, I have found his research and commentary both enlightening and thought provoking. Additionally, the effort and dedication that Mr. Bednar offers is only surpassed by the quality of the end result. There are a multitude of real estate related discussion forums that are available to the general public. Clearly, the magnitude of the interest, and velocity of the expansion, is testament to the fact that the opinions expressed on the site strongly resonate with the audience.

    To review the content of Mr. Bednar’s site juxtaposed with Mr. Bronson’s commentary provides prima facie evidence of the questionable veracity of the claims that have appeared in your publication on April 18, 2006. To suggest that Mr. Bronson does not have ulterior motives strains credulity.

    In my opinion, it is appropriate to expect the following:
    (1) Have Mr. Bronson offer an apology in print.
    (2) Have your publication print a retraction.
    (3) Allow Mr. Bednar to rebut these comments in a forum of equal standing to the original piece.

    I hope you will demonstrate for the public the type of organization you represent.

  174. chicagofinance says:

    jj: did you see this?

    chicagofinance says:
    April 15, 2011 at 1:28 pm
    JJ: I went to lunch down the street in Red Bank…..who walks in?

    chicagofinance says:
    April 15, 2011 at 1:28 pm
    Your boy Wayne……

  175. chicagofinance says:

    njcoast: what is that public record mortgage site again for Monmouth County? You sent it to me about 3 years ago, but I can’t recall it and I can’t seem to track it down.

  176. danxp says:


    you are absolutely right about river edge/oradell… they do seem to be slipping a little when compared with towns like ridgewood, glen rock, hohokus… that is, from what i can tell from the limited info from a non-realtor’s njmls access and the limited closed sales posted publicly…

    i figure, if the price of the home is low enough to make up for the comical taxes, then it should be “affordable”… you may still end up paying the same PITI as a town with a lower tax rate…

    – i’m paying $2k rent now
    – if i can get to a combined payment of about $2800, my net cost with the tax deductions would be about the same (well, of course, i wouldn’t have that 20% dp accumulating 1% annually and assuming property values remain flat) and i’ll have my own home in a “desirable” town…

  177. JJ says:

    who is wayne?

    chicagofinance says:
    April 15, 2011 at 2:49 pm

    jj: did you see this?

    chicagofinance says:
    April 15, 2011 at 1:28 pm
    JJ: I went to lunch down the street in Red Bank…..who walks in?

    chicagofinance says:
    April 15, 2011 at 1:28 pm
    Your boy Wayne……

  178. chicagofinance says:

    DejaVu: Thank you, but I was looking for the database of scanned mortgage docs etc. I think it is what grim referenced earlier in this thread, just for Monmouth County.

  179. chicagofinance says:


  180. Happy Renter says:

    [177] Nice bit of history there. I wasn’t around for the Grim v. Bronson debate, but I read a few of the old posts just now and it’s entertaining.

    My favorite part so far is from Bronson’s original “It’s Important to Defend Against Liars” article, where he refers to Grim’s belief in “the supposed alleged bubble in New Jersey real estate.”

    Ah, memories. Makes me nostalgic for AlpinetheRealist.

  181. danxp says:

    redweller (176)…

    cherry hill has a public pre-k?? wow, how about roosevelt? maybe i need to move sooner rather than later so i could enroll my 4yr old this fall for that program…

    yes, we are in very similar situations… i didn’t know that there’s a pre-k… is there a waitlist to get in and would it be for anyone in river edge? wow, that would save me about a year’s daycare for both my kids…

    please keep me posted…

  182. 3b says:

    #81 Ho ho kus seems to trade in its own universe, always has from what I have seen., and I attribute part of it to it being such a small town.

    RWood& GROCK, well Even in those towns I see lots of listings in the 300-450K range, something you simply did not see in these towns during the bubble. Now I am sure that more than a few are dumps, but still a big change.

    If you are into the blue ribbon and all you should also look at at RW. Which consistently leads in all of those rankings. I would do a modes house in RWood, before REdge or ODLL. Just my opinion.

  183. Lone Ranger says:

    “who is wayne?”


  184. Kettle1^2 says:

    Juice, Debt

    You will get a kick out of this friday speculation

    An Odd Directive From The Chinese Ministry Of Truth: “Delete All Rumors Of Japan Elites Emigrating To Hainan Island”

  185. JJ says:

    other than realty track which seems a scam as free trial requires a credit car, where else can I get foreclosure info for free. I like that realty has pre-foreclosure info but I don’t want to pay for it.

  186. danxp says:

    3b (187)…

    i took a look at a few houses in ridgewood and anything under $600k is cringe-inducing…

    i’d say there’s about a 100-150k diff in price for similar property… that puts me outside my comfort zone… i’d prefer under $500k…

  187. REdweller says:

    danxp says: April 15, 2011 at 2:59 pm
    you are absolutely right about river edge/oradell… they do seem to be slipping a little when compared with towns like ridgewood, glen rock, hohokus…

    The Junk of River Edge

    not sure it’s that broad based and simple. i think you might want to look 1 step further as well. i don’t know oradell, however i do know River Edge a bit and there is alot of junk in River Edge. is there similarly a lot of junk in ridgewood, glen rock, & hohokus?

    from what i have seen, the ‘junk’ in river edge has been slipping, and deservingly so! the quality in river edge does not appear to be slipping too much. that’s what surprised me about river edge, the percentage of inventory that’s truly junk, yet historically benefited from the nicer homes. and they’re right next to each other in many cases. an example?

    I examined this house above. It’s not 3 levels, it’s 2 and a truncated basement that is not living space. The truth is it’s about 50% of the alleged 3800 sq’ at best. each floor might be 800 sq’ in fact. the design and layout is awful inside, the stairs very narrow and steep. the roof has clear signs of ‘warping’ and a new roof is due. yes, those are cracks you see around the house on the walls down to the foundation . very nice people that live there but i would be stunned and shocked if someone able to get a mortgage would pay $299K for this “junk with a view”.

    This is one example of total junk, asking $400K, and I woud pass at $250K. Crazy thing is this house is next to and across the street from some very nice homes, and that’s how River Edge is. Total junk adjacent to very nice homes, it’s just that half the inventory on the market tends to be the junk.

  188. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Chi Wayne and I graduated same year Garfield High School and were on the same Babe Ruth Team until we weren’t. Fame, meh so he could catch a football and hard work got him to the NFL. I’ll have my mental faculties in a few years where as he will be on the Muhammad Ali brain injury program blowing through the millions on medical treatment. Sucks being a modern gladiator

  189. danxp says:

    redweller (192)…

    just called river edge schools and the pre-k for 2011-12 is full… apparently there’s a lottery system for your kids to get registered there which takes place beginning january…

    so i guess my cutoff would be january 2012 if i want to try to get my littlest one in there…

    i may have to look at junk in hopes of polishing it up with full scale renovations, but then that may defeat the purpose of paying low only having to cough up $100k or more to make it “livable”… i dunno, what the hell do i know?

  190. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Brooklyn Home Sales Surge 28% as Buyers Sense Price Stability

    Home sales in Brooklyn, New York’s most populous borough, surged 28 percent in the first quarter after a year of stable prices bolstered buyer confidence.

    Sales totaled 2,373, up from 1,861 a year earlier, New York appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said today in a joint report. The median price of properties that changed hands in the period was $475,000, a 1.9 percent increase from a year earlier and unchanged from the previous quarter.

    “Brooklyn, for the last year, has been stable,” Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, said in an interview. “When you have an extended period of consistent activity, consumers are more confident.”

  191. REdweller says:

    danxp, the house i am buying in river edge is not junk, but it is a ‘wreck’. if you’re paying less than half a mil, good bones is all you can ask for. stay away from the junk, find a wreck with good bones.

    another river edge commonality is the elderly folks due to fixed incomes or whatever have not been able to update their homes much over the decades. these are the ‘wrecks’ usually.

    677 kinderkamack at $299K is an example of a ‘wreck’, elderly lady was a recluse, passed away just as she updated and renovated the kitchen and bathroom. however that place needs a new roof, new windows, new window frames (and there are a lot of them), it needs a whole new heating system, it has no a/c so add that if you want that, the electrical needs updating, and i am not sure of the condition of the pipes.

    other than that, it’s got great bones.

  192. mikey (163)-

    Better service and more professional counter help at fast food outlets.

  193. Lone Ranger says:

    Debt [198],

    Tonto may be adding security personnel.

  194. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Just saw a Quicken Loan commercial ” Get a loan now if rates go down in the next 3 years we will pay your closing fees to refi” somebody is pretty certain which way rates are going.
    Debt 198 unfortunately you are right.

  195. 3b says:

    #97 And it is a horrible location.

  196. 3b says:

    #95 danxp There are alot of house listed for under 399k and, and they are not junk. That is a big difference over the last few years. I have lived in the town a long time, so I am very familiar with what has been going on. Also as I said alot to choose from in the low 400Ks, too that are not junk. There is no need to buy junk in RE today.

  197. Lone Ranger says:

    Nah, not Warren.

    “In 2005 Buffett was in very hot water due to illegal transactions with AIG in his giant re-insurance company General Re.

    Then in May 2006 Buffett announced that he had gotten rid of his silver:

    As coincidence may have it…in May 2006 the silver ETF (SLV) opened it’s doors and quickly ran to 130M oz (the exact amount of silver estimated to be sold by Warren Buffett.)

    Although the CEO of AIG, Hank Greenberg, got the book thrown at him Buffett was able to escape prosecution after meeting with the “investigators” just prior to his silver divestment.

    Did Buffett trade his silver for his freedom? You make the call.”

  198. 3b says:

    #95 Below is just one example listed 1t 409K, move in condidtion. Sold for 510k in 06 or 07.

  199. yo'me says:

    Ex-MLB Player Lenny Dykstra Charged With Bankruptcy Fraud

    Former Major League Baseball player Lenny Dykstra was charged with bankruptcy fraud for selling belongings from his $18.5 million mansion after he had filed for bankruptcy in 2009.

  200. 3b says:

    #91 Time is on your side. I would still do RW before you other choices.

    Also if you do RE there are alot of decent hosues on the market now, as I have said more now than anything I have seen in the last few years.

    With all due respect to tother poster, he/she is showing you listings on KKR. If you know RE, you know you do no tbuy on KKR. It a horribly busy county raod that runs all the way up to Rockland Co.

  201. Barbara says:

    my approach is simple. I will buy soon knowing that I will lose money the day I close. I will borrow the maximum amount, keep most of my cash. If the market crashes to end of days levels, I will default, squat and wait to be kicked out. Then I will use my cash and buy a property outright. Credit score? Who needs a stinking credit score?

  202. Lone Ranger says:


    The option trader lifted one leg of the straddle, while the other was naked, and got jammed. Hey Lenny, let’s play 2 today.

  203. ranger (203)-

    Don’t know about the silver thingy, but Warren B sure as hell traded his soul to Beelzebub, and he did it a long time ago.

  204. danxp says:

    thanks 3b,

    i’m staying away from kinderkamack and other busy roads… living on a busy street is not my idea of home…

    i have a realtor whom i’ve enlisted, but i’m basically doing all the legwork and he’s just looking stuff up for me on mls…

    gonna take my time

  205. Lone Ranger says:

    Odd stat of the day. After 11 games AJ Burnett has more wins than the Sawx.

  206. yo (205)-

    That has to be wrong. Everybody knows Lenny’s on a hot comeback streak.

  207. Most fun stat of the day: there will be 4 Clasicos in the next 18 days.

    The fascist chants will be going before the game even starts tomorrow.

  208. Lone Ranger says:

    Debt [209],

    He owned a huge position. My brother stood next to his silver broker. It wasn’t Warren like to kick out such a large position so soon. Combine his AIG shenanigans with the birth of the paper fraud; silver etf. The big boys knew they were screwed then so they devised a paper scheme to divert interest from physical. If they had to go to the market to buy 130M ounces, it would have cost a mint. Buffett knew this. Very odd he would sell his entire stake at the bid. JPM must have had the book on him/Greenberg. Like magic the ETF is backed by 130M ounces. Then again, probably just a coincidence.

    Funny thing, JPM kicked the can down the road with the birth of the etf. What now?

  209. 3b says:

    #210 also stay away from midland continental and howland all busy major arteries. Also spend time walking around on a week day as well as a weekensd. Don’t just do the realtor tour. Also don’t rule out emerson nice town good schools. Lower taxes. Don’t get blindfolded by the blue ribbon.

  210. yo'me says:

    Obama had tough words for Republican Representative Paul Ryan, the chairman of the House Budget Committee. Ryan has offered a deficit-cutting plan that would sharply reduce government spending and has drawn Obama’s ire.

    “This is the same guy that voted for two wars that were unpaid for, voted for the Bush tax cuts that were unpaid for, voted for the prescription drug bill that cost as much as my healthcare bill — but wasn’t paid for. So it’s not on the level. And we’ve got to keep on you know, keep on shining a light on that,” he said

  211. grim says:

    Busy day at the FDIC..

    April 15, 2011

    Rosemount National Bank, Rosemount, MN
    Superior Bank, Birmingham, AL
    Nexity Bank, Birmingham, AL
    New Horizons Bank, East Ellijay, GA
    Bartow County Bank, Cartersville, GA

  212. ranger (214)-

    The endgame is the end of the line for the JP Morgue.

    Unless they can find another hapless patsy to pin an 11-figure loss on as they circle the drain.

  213. And to think: the only rancid thing I thought came out of Birmingham was Richard Scrushy.

  214. 4c says:

    Re: 196

    I am an nycer who’s looking to leave the city (NJ or westchester) . I would not mind moving to Brooklyn but the prices there are unbelievably high almost like Manhattan and they do not seem to budge. I think rich people buy there because of the almost nonexistent property taxes. It is not unheard of mansion sold for 3-4mil having $4k annual property taxes. What a fraud!

  215. jamil says:

    U.S. companies face the sixth- highest effective tax rate in the world, according to a study by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.

    The tax rate for the largest U.S. companies between 2006 and 2009 was 27.7 percent, compared with a non-U.S. average of 19.5 percent, according to the study released today. Companies based in Japan, Morocco, Italy, Indonesia and Germany faced higher tax rates. Excluding the U.S., companies based in industrialized countries had an average rate of 22.6 percent.

  216. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (134) shore,

    Any interest in naming the jurisdiction?

  217. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (222) jamil,

    I trumpet the tax message routinely, but always be mindful that business looks at the bottom line, and much more goes into it than taxes.

    Unfortunately, the left wants to add more weight to the shackles, and this weight take forms other than taxes. This is why I maintain that Obama cannot succeed without strong protectionist measures.

    Indeed, such measures must be even stronger than what existed in the sixties. After all, we won’t be able to export anything to the formerly destroyed and backward economies of the world, and innovation, once our secret weapon, will occur elsewhere.

  218. Once again, NJRER beats everyone to the punch. To my knowledge, this is the first time a bankster has publicly said “Chinese water torture”.

    BC was saying that here at least four years ago.

    “Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO), the bond insurer that said negotiating with Bank of America Corp. (BAC) was like “Chinese water torture,” soared in New York trading after extracting $1.1 billion to settle claims on faulty home loans.

    The agreement includes a cash payment plus loss-sharing that could bring the total cost to about $1.6 billion, the bank said today in a statement. Assured jumped $3.43, or 24 percent, to $17.60 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, its best showing since November 2008. Bank of America, the biggest U.S. bank, dropped 31 cents to $12.82.

    The two companies clashed last year over whether Bank of America should reimburse the Bermuda insurer for loans that were based on false data about the homes and borrowers. Dominic Frederico, Chief Executive Officer of Assured, likened the talks last August to the agony of water torture, while Bank of America CEO Brian T. Moynihan said in November that negotiations were “day-to-day, hand-to-hand combat.”

  219. I suggest we tie Mr. Federico and Mr. Moynihan to each other, then dump them into the Hudson Canyon.

  220. Fabius Maximus says:


    Jamil as you read further into that article you may miss that it actually goes against your point.

    Nice article in Slate Explainer today. Yes Nom, I know its not illegal but it has to change. And a 5% tax amnesty is not the way to resolve it.

  221. WickedOrange says:

    I signed up for the free trial with my cc for a week and then closed my account without charge.

    RE:other than realty track which seems a scam as free trial requires a credit car, where else can I get foreclosure info for free. I like that realty has pre-foreclosure info but I don’t want to pay for it.

  222. WickedOrange says:

    I should also add Asbury Park, NJ is in bad shape.

  223. chicagofinance says:

    nom: I was guessing state of IL……

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    April 15, 2011 at 7:52 pm
    (134) shore, Any interest in naming the jurisdiction?

  224. chicagofinance says:

    The end is nigh (80’s Hair Band Edition):

    MIDDLETOWN, NJ — Rocker Jon Bon Jovi had $100,000 worth of jewelry stolen from his New Jersey mansion in a burglary, authorities said today.

    Nichols Tracy, 21, is accused of swiping gems belonging to the “Livin’ On A Prayer” singer’s wife.

    It is alleged that he targeted a number of homes in 49-year-old Bon Jovi’s area, but was arrested on Wednesday when he tripped an alarm at a neighboring house, reported.

    Police said he stole $500,000 worth of bling in raids on four homes.

    Tracy was charged with burglarizing Bon Jovi’s $22.25 million, 15-acre estate along the Navesink River on April 3, where he grabbed jewelry belonging to the rocker’s wife Dorothea Bongiovi, according to court documents obtained by the Asbury Park Press.

    Rocker Jon Bon Jovi’s home in New Jersey.

    Rocker Jon Bon Jovi has $100,000 worth of jewelry stolen from his home. Tracy was remanded to the Monmouth County Jail in Freehold Township on $100,000 bail as set by township Municipal Court Judge Richard Thompson.

    With AP

  225. DejaVu says:

    If I need to take a NJ Transit train into NYC each day and not have to switch trains during the ride, and wanted the ride to be no more than 45 minutes, where would you suggest I rent? The neighborhood has to be safe so when I am out of town, I do not worry about family. At this point, schools are not a big concern. Summit seems nice but rent there is not inexpensive. Are there any other suggestions?

    Thank you,

  226. chi (230)-

    Greece, Portugal or Ireland.

  227. chi (231)-

    That’s a story where I really want to root for the robber.

  228. Al Mossberg says:

    April 27th in my town they are having a vote on whether or not to raise the 2% cap on property taxes. These mother f_ckers jacked my property taxes 50% and now they want me to raise the cap? LMAO. I had to hire an attorney to fight these criminal fraudsters.

    Driving around today I saw plenty of “Vote Yes on April 27th. Dont cut our services!”

    Im not only going to vote no. I am going to vote HELL NO! Of course the good people down here in the Pine Barrens always vote no. We shredded the school budget 60 -40 against.

    I just want all you gov dependent losers to understand something on April 27th. When you lose your stupid worthless job its because people like me kicked you in the balls with a steel toed boot.

  229. Al, why get all fired up here when you can just take up a tactical offensive position near your polling place and gun down potential voters?

  230. Hey, it works in Colombia.

  231. Al Mossberg says:


    Was launching the boat today and had a coversation with an IT guy that was laid off from Hewlett Packard 18 months ago. He cant find sh_t either. I told him thats what happens when you out source an entire industry to the Patel family from Bombay.

    He needs to retrain but is probably too old. Approaching 50 I suspect. Not going to be easy.

  232. Al Mossberg says:



    I am dumping Federal Reserve Notes like there is no tomorrow. I am turning my humble aboad into a modern day mash camp. Its a process no doubt. The soil has been reworked. The irrigation is ready to go. All I need now are some sand bags and a road side vegetable stand.

  233. al (239)-

    We should talk sometime. Perhaps we can hammer out some sort of common defense agreement.

  234. al (239)-

    If the black helicopter guys are watching this site right now, you might want to assure them you’re not setting up a grow house.

  235. Al Mossberg says:



    You know dam well he did and China wants their silver back.

  236. Al Mossberg says:



    Dam. I saw one of those black helicopters this evening. I swear those bastards can detect LED grow lights from high altitude. Im not growing pot you bastards! Im growing vegetables for when the SHTF!

  237. Don’t need to germinate zucchini under 57 halogen lights, Smokey.

  238. Al Mossberg says:

    Broccoli loves 300 watts of love.

  239. morpheus says:

    243: LED grow lights? I didn’t know LED provided proper wavelength for plant growth. Must stop drinking tonite. Took way too long to type this!

  240. Shore Guy says:

    Vee haf vays:

    (We should not have a Secretary of Homeland Security, we should have a Commissar of Internal Security, at least so it seems)

    TSA security looks at people who complain about … TSA security

    Washington (CNN) — Don’t like the way airport screeners are doing their job? You might not want to complain too much while standing in line.

    Arrogant complaining about airport security is one indicator Transportation Security Administration officers consider when looking for possible criminals and terrorists, CNN has learned exclusively.


    But a civil liberties organization said the list should not include behavior relating to the expression of opinions, even arrogant expressions of opinion.

    “Expressing your contempt about airport procedures — that’s a First Amendment-protected right,” said Michael German, a former FBI agent who now works as legal counsel for the American Civil Liberties Union. “We all have the right to express our views, and particularly in a situation where the government is demanding the ability to search you.”

    “It’s circular reasoning where, you know, I’m going to ask someone to surrender their rights; if they refuse, that’s evidence that I need to take their rights away from them. And it’s simply inappropriate,” he said.


  241. Shore Guy says:

    “Any interest in naming the jurisdiction?”

    I can’t, as the information was shared on the QT.

  242. Shore Guy says:

    “15-acre estate along the Navesink River”

    It isn’t a mansion on an esyate, it is a farm, or so he claims in order to pay lower taxes.

  243. Shore Guy says:

    estate, too

  244. toomuchchange says:

    7 – Jamil

    I skipped straight from reading your comment down to the end.

    How on earth, under any circumstances, could you or the Wall St Journal expect the job market to recover like it did during past recessions when we’ve had so much offshore outsourcing and mass migration over the past 30 years?

    Somehow it seems most of our politicians, economists and the employers and arm’s-length exploiters of foreign labor thought that America could go on being America while depriving our own people of good paying jobs. The wonder of it is that we didn’t experience financial Armageddon years ago as so many lived beyond their means, but somehow the various bubbles since the late 90s propped us up until 2007. Also the fact that many Americans worked longer and longer hours in a desperate attempt to overcome rising housing and healthcare costs and greater and greater income inequality.

    That a small segment at the top has greatly prospered recently doesn’t help the vast middle and lower income earnings retain their ability to afford a decent life.

    The way out of our problems is to refocus our attention on ourselves and start thinking about our fellow Americans and what’s best for them, not just ourselves. That applies to all of us as individuals, as well as our business and governmental organizations.

  245. JC says:

    #215: Hey, come to Wash. Twp. It seems to be the local hot spot this season. :-)

  246. yo'me says:

    #251 Kudos!

  247. Kettle1^2 says:


    yes there are LED grow light systems available. They avoid the standard heat signature of grow light systems and have a minimal power draw comparativly.

  248. Shore Guy says:

    Hudroponic Farmer Kettle, down on the farm.

  249. Kettle1^2 says:

    I love the smell of doom in the morning. It smells like revolution.

  250. 3b says:

    #252 JC We are taking a drive around WT tomorrow. I will have some questions. Your thoughts are appreciated. one question now though, are there any areas we should avoid?

  251. Kettle1^2 says:


    LED grow systems make those pesky police thermal cameras easier to avoid and avoids the suspicious powers bills

  252. Shore Guy says:

    hydroponic, even

  253. Shore Guy says:

    better living through chemi… uh, electronics?

  254. jamil says:

    251 did your pointless incoherent hopey and change ramble had a point or proposal? Higher taxes and demonizing/hunting down productive people does not help anybody, except few gov cronies.

    Why not trying proven policies to grow economy ie let people and corporates keep their money and take the gov out of way

  255. chicagofinance says:

    clot: You are not the only one that drinks on the job…..

    APRIL 16, 2011
    Distilling a Lifetime of Whiskey Knowledge


    One day at work, Chris Morris sipped 180 different types of bourbon.

    As master distiller for the American spirits maker Brown-Forman, Mr. Morris is charged with overseeing the production of a good, consistent bourbon whiskey—a surprisingly complex task because of the many things that can affect a whiskey’s flavor, from the barrel in which it is stored to the crop of corn used to make it. He oversees that process for Woodford Reserve, a premium bourbon, and also checks the flavor of Brown-Forman’s other brands, such as Finlandia Vodka, Jack Daniel’s and Early Times.

    For each of the past six years, he also has come up with a super-premium limited edition of Woodford Reserve known as the Master’s Collection. Each one of the Master’s Collection takes an element of the bourbon’s recipe and changes it slightly.

    “It’s about pursuing flavor through modernizing old practices,” said Mr. Morris, a ruddy-faced 53-year-old with a luxurious mustache. Things minor and major can be tweaked to change a whiskey’s flavor. The next batch, for example, which is slated to come out in November, uses just rye instead of what is normally a mixture of corn, rye and malt. “The idea has a great tradition. Bartenders appreciate a rye whiskey, and I wanted to give it a try.”

    Mr. Morris began working for Brown-Forman in his senior year of high school, as an intern, in 1976. He attended Bellarmine University, in Louisville, Ky., where he studied business, and he eventually landed at United Distillers, where he worked his way up to be the master distiller of Rebel Yell, another bourbon. He returned to Brown-Forman in 1997 and became master distiller “upon the previous master distiller’s retirement,” in 2004. On his way to becoming a master distiller he has done everything from sweep the floors to work in the company’s sophisticated laboratory, breaking down the chemicals in alcohol.

    There’s no quick-and-easy formula to his work. The goals are highly specific: His “Tasting Notes” for Woodford Reserve, for example, stipulates a nose of “powerful vanilla overlays a rich fruit medley…and a dash of black-pepper spice” and a finish that’s “smooth, long, spicy and warming, but with a noticeable absence of heat.”

    When experimenting with a new flavor, Mr. Morris and several of his colleagues will go through dozens and dozens of tastings before settling on a final mixture. That means he will sample, rate and take notes on up to 40 different types of alcohol in a single day, spitting most of it into a sink so that he doesn’t get drunk.

    To avoid tasting fatigue, he’ll take a sip, spit out and then rinse his mouth with water. After a few minutes, he will move on to the next sample. When he gets tired of tasting, “Then I go home.”

    Mr. Morris takes extensive tasting notes. Over the past 15 years, he has filled 20 to 30 notebooks, in addition to countless files. Things like the aroma, taste and finish are extensively documented. In addition, while working on a new line, he will keep samples of the whiskey so that he can look back and see what it tasted like in its first month, second month and so on. “I’m not one to get lost in detail,” he said. “It seems to work out in your head, where you just know where everything is fitting.”

    Though he’ll listen to the thoughts of others, Mr. Morris makes the final decision himself. Once, while working on the 2009 Master’s Collection, one of the tasters thought that after seven years and three months, the whiskey had been in the barrel long enough. Mr. Morris overruled him and kept the whiskey in the barrel another three months. That line of whiskey went on to win an industry award for innovation.

    Many of his ideas have come during quiet moments—while he’s sitting in his car, looking at old documents in a library or walking along the creek near the distillery. (A runner for 30 years, he took up walking when his knees wore out.) When he gets an idea, he will tell his research-and-development team to make a very small batch. “I’ll say, ‘I like this’ or ‘I don’t like’ and they’ll go make changes,” he said. When he’s satisfied, a much larger amount will be made in the distillery.

    Once a final mix is settled on and made, the bourbon sits in a temperature-controlled warehouse for approximately seven years. During that time Mr. Morris, and people who work with him, will draw samples and rate them on a scale of 1 to 4, with 4 being the highest, once every six months.

    The highest score he has ever given is a technically impossible 4.2. “The angels sang,” he said. “You get a wonderful barrel, but then it has to go into the batch being made.”

    • The Woodford Reserve distillery is on the National Register of Historic Places. In the 1830s and ’40s, two pioneers of whiskey making, Elijah Pepper and James Crow, set up a distillery there. Master distiller Chris Morris often finds inspiration in historical documents from that period, such as family letters and diaries. “I’ve got a file of old whiskey recipes where the oldest is from 1820. The hard part is understanding the terminology from that time. It might say use two parts of something, but you don’t know what size one part is. It’s like being a historical culinary detective.” He once made a batch using a recipe from the 1700s that was used at George Washington’s distillery.

    • When he’s not working, he drinks Woodford Reserve, unsurprisingly, but that’s not the only thing he drinks. “I will sample our competitors, scotches and eccentric brands because they might lead to inspiration.”

    • Mr. Morris is a historian not only of whiskey but of Kentucky. He is toying with the idea of putting out a book that traces the history of whiskey in the state.

  256. still_looking says:

    can anyone help with recommendations for an ASAP computer repair in NNJ?



  257. Shore Guy says:

    what is the problem?

  258. Fabius Maximus says:

    #264 sl

    Whats the problem?

    Best Buy in Paramus is closest too you and I think the Geek Sqaud will take walk ins . If you need to I can look at it for you.

  259. House Whine says:

    266 – Geek Squad- ridiculously expensive. Try to find someone local (ask yr. neighbors, etc). that is recommended instead.

  260. Shore Guy says:

    Well, duh! Fuk-u-shima edition:

    Nuclear Cleanup Plans Hinge on UnknownsBy HIROKO TABUCHI
    Published: April 16, 2011

    TOKYO — Even before the troubled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant has been brought under control, two conglomerates vying for contracts in an eventual cleanup are estimating that the effort could take 10 years — or 30.


  261. still_looking says:

    Fab 266 went into hibernation – won’t wake up. Hard restart button not working/responding but green light on back suggests power supply is getting juice.

    Hibernation problem started when we were still at the other house – switched off hibernation settings (but left screen saver working.)

    The no-restart problem started after we moved and figured it was just a loose wire thing. Computer is three years old…. am looking to upgrade/update and not sure if laptop vs desktop is preferable. I like a large monitor (guess I’m getting old… ;)


  262. still_looking says:

    Fab and Whine

    Hubby took it to a computer place that we used before in East Hanover….

    I hope it isn’t effed.


  263. still_looking says:

    for Kettle


  264. Confused In NJ says:

    NEW YORK – NEW YORK (AP) — Drivers in Washington, D.C., on Saturday joined motorists in five states who are paying more than $4 per gallon for gasoline.

    The average price for gas in New York could top $4 by early next week. Hawaii, Alaska, California, Illinois and Connecticut already have pump prices above that mark, according to AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge. Hawaii has the highest price in the U.S. at $4.47 per gallon.

    The national average for gas has increased for 25 straight days, and is now $3.82 per gallon. Retail surveys suggest motorists are reacting to higher prices now by buying less fuel. Still, the government expects pump prices to keep climbing this summer as vacationers take to the highways.

    The average price of gas rose to $4.003 per gallon in the nation’s capital Saturday. The New York average is $3.996.

    For American drivers, the $4 mark harkens back to the summer of 2008, when oil rose to $147 per barrel and gas prices topped out at $4.11 per gallon before the economy went into a tailspin.

    The rapid increase at the pump follows a parallel rise in oil. Since Labor Day, oil has risen 48 percent and U.S. gas prices have gone up 42 percent. The increases gained momentum in Mid-February when a popular rebellion built in Libya, eventually turning violent and shutting down the country’s exports. Crude has jumped 30 percent since then, with gas prices gaining 22 percent.

    Not to worry, Government will provide Free Gas to all Public Sector Employees.

  265. Fabius Maximus says:

    #269 SL

    Power it down by pushing and holding down the power key for about 10-15 seconds. Wheny you power it back up you should see the Computer name flash up and some text scroll by. If you don’t you may have a bad motherboard. Next up shoudl be the windows logo. If not, you may have a bad disk or a loose cable.try opening up the box and checking for a loose cable or loose memory.

    If you see the windows logo and then it just hangs it is more likely software related. Power it back down and when it restarts start hitting the F8 key repeatedly. This should bring up a text window with “Start Windows Normally” scroll up to “safe mode”. This should start windows in a funny manner. When it loads shut it down normally and restart. If it still won’t boot, try repeating the F8 to bring up the menu and select Last known good configuration. If this still doesn’t resolve, let me know.

  266. Confused In NJ says:

    I tried Staples Technical Support for my old windows 98 desktop back in 2009, but they couldn’t fix it as 98 was no longer supported. Got my money back on that and gradually found out problem was coming from my Spy Sweeper, which I replaced with Norton, and problem went away. I then ported everything over to a Vista Lap Top, and from their to new Win 7 Desk Top. I also like a Big Monitor & Big Key Board. The HP Lap Top doesn’t do it for me like the HP Desk Top. At least Win 7 let’s me use Free Turbo Tax for awhile.

  267. Kettle1^2 says:



    Hows life?

  268. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore 268

    Looks like Bechtel wants in on the action. Bechtel has quite the sordid history.

  269. Fabius Maximus says:

    #270 SL

    Will be curious as to the outcome keep us posted.
    House Whine, if Geek Squad is driving to your house then yes, it is expensive, but the walkin price list set the bar for most of the independant shops and is around the same price as the Apple Genuis bar if you have to use them for repair. Although Apple consult is free. If you need repair, you might get 20% less at the independent shop, but if things go wrong you have to fight the owner. With Best Buy you get a refund or the store manager or Corporate will make it right. As with the Car stereo installaltion, if there is a problem after you leave the store in some ways it is a lot easier to get it rectitified.
    I have a mother in Law in Florida and I would rather just pay the price to Best Buy as I know it will be less hassle for me in the long run.

  270. toomuchchange says:

    262 – Jamil

    Have you forgotten already that the government you want off your back rescued Wall St. and the banks and various and sundry big money people?

    If everyone who got a handout or still has a job because the American taxpayer bailed them out will kindly return all the money they received, we’d make a big dent in the deficit.

    And higher taxes after 10 years of tax cuts, foreign war and bailouts is a necessity. Argue all you want, it will happen, you’ll see.

    Don’t feel too bad, though; I predict even with tax increases, the rich will stay rich.
    Funny how often the “productive people” end up demanding and taking handouts.

  271. I see we have a nice little debate among the political idealogues — jamil and too much change.

    Here’s how the political parties (both Red & Blue) treat the American public……
    The Democrats get elected by promising a Chicken & a Pot to the “Middle Class” They spend lavishly on Poultry and Cookware, running up huge deficits. These deficits trigger the inevitable across-the-board Tax Increases. These increased taxes cause a voter backlash, Republicans promise to “get our Fiscal House in Order” and their election is thus insured. Once in power, the Republicans roll-back taxes on the Rich, and cut services to everybody else. The Middle Class is shocked, shocked I tell you, that their newly elected politicians have no idea what constitutes Order in a Fiscal House. The inevitable voter backlash brings in a new batch of Dimmycrat congress-critters….who promptly raise taxes across the board to fund more giveaways to those who sponsored their re-election.

    This is an Open Loop Cycle and is repeated, ad nauseum both at the State ( see NJ Governors Byrne, Kean, Florio, Whitman, McGreevey, Corzine, Christie) and at the National level (see Coolidge/Hoover, FDR/JFK/LBJ, Nixon, Carter, Reagan/Bush, Clinton, Bush II, Big Bank’s Puppet).

    Whenever a Politician says “this is what the American People want” you can bet that “this is what the main contributor to my Re-Election Fund wants”

  272. toomuchchange says:

    262 – Jamil

    Oh yeah, what’s hopey and and changey about saying exporting jobs and importing people for 30 years is a recipe for decreased wages, perpetual high unemployment, strained government services — in other words, disaster?

    Are you one of those people involved in exploiting cheap labor and taking away jobs from Americans? Still clinging to the idea that America can function and remain a First World country when the average person can hardly afford to live here anymore?

  273. Shore Guy says:

    I thought we were all done with the Gulf Oil Spill? It was last year after all.

    Can’t those animals go somewhere else to die? They are so unsightly, and so 2010.

  274. Shore Guy says:

    Yes they do, Kettle.

  275. Shore Guy says:

    “If everyone who got a handout or still has a job because the American taxpayer bailed them out will kindly return all the money they received, we’d make a big dent in the deficit.”

    we can spend some of those savings on prison cells for them.

  276. Confused In NJ says:

    I think that in the days of the Robber Barons like Ford, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, Carnegie, etc. there was some truth in cutting their taxes & they would create more employment. But, they actually owned their companies, and had real factories, and produced real goods. The Neuveau Billionaires are parasites, who do not own companies or produce real goods. They should be taxed into extermination.

  277. Shore Guy says:

    Maybe he can find refuge in Bergen County:

  278. DL says:

    Shore 140: Camden and Woodrow Wilson are only allowed to play afternoon games with a ratio of police to fans of 1:1. Refs pack heat and metal detectors at the door.

  279. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Here is the updated NJREReport home price prediction chart, as promised…

  280. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [287] fab

    Mmmmm, shiny.

  281. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    And because no one yet said it today, Android sucks.

    I am really starting to hate Google, in the way that many lefties hate Microsoft or Wal-mart.

  282. JC says:

    3b #258: There are no “bad neighborhoods” in WT. I would stay away from the streets that come off of Pascack Road just north of Washington Avenue, because there is a bunch of zoning crap going on that will mean the gas station on that corner becoming a 24-hour convenience store with 4 gas pump islands and the dilapidated houses on the other corner becoming a CVS and a small strip shopping center. The owner of the Seasons catering hall is essentially holding the town hostage — he’s leaving those eyesores up until he gets the rezoning for the CVS.

    I would stay away from houses that are too near the brook…sometimes there are water problems. Devon Road had bad flooding a few years ago with that big nor’easter…not sure if it’s a regular problem or not. The lake-bordering houses of course have to deal with goose poop. Not very familiar with the area around IHA.

    What price range are you looking at?

  283. RU says:

    #164 danxp: I bought in RE about 2 years ago. Bought a fixer upper and paid under assessed and comps. It has been a lot of work but don’t regret the move at all. Taxes are a little high but what NNJ isn’t? Lots of parks and town services are good.

  284. 3b says:

    #192 JC: Thanks for the information, will let you know. Would like to spend around 350K.

  285. Shore Guy says:


    I’m no lefty but, I have some bones to pick with MS and its dreadful customer service.

  286. Kettle1^2 says:


    CS NY metro and comp10 are both right at the “real” cpi adjusted 87/89 peak for both.

    comp 10 adj 89 peak: 145
    ny metro adj 87 peak: 161

    comp 10 jan 2011: 154
    ny metro jan 2011: 166

  287. JC says:

    #275: My DH is the best PC/network guy around. Recently he cleaned up a PC that had over 800 viruses on it; had to poke around the registry. He is over 50 and out of work, so if anyone knows of a company looking to hire one, let me know.

    In terms of virus detection/removal, he recommends Kaspersky and MalwareBytes. The latter is free, the former is like $59 bucks for the full suite. Well worth it, better than Norton OR McAfee, and we haven’t had a virus since we got them.

    3b: You could check out that listing I sent you the other day, though since the place just went on the market, I don’t know if the seller would take an offer almost $40K under asking (despite the relative lack of interest last year). I think it’s maybe a $350-$360K house, but seller might still be delusional. Not much in this range right now.

    This Hillsdale house is on Colonial Blvd. and has been sitting for a while (kitchen is heinous):

    This house is on a nice street in Westwood (a block east of KK road, walk to town). It’s a thru street, but not a lot of traffic:

    It’s early yet, though. I’ll keep my eyes open.

  288. Confused In NJ says:

    Raul Castro said the country had ignored its problems for too long, and made clear Cuba had to make tough decisions if it wanted to survive.

    “No country or person can spend more than they have,” he said. “Two plus two is four. Never five, much less six or seven — as we have sometimes pretended.”

    Dressed in a white guayabera shirt, the Cuban leader alternated between reassurances that the economic changes were compatible with socialism, and a brutal assessment of the mistakes the country had made. Fidel Castro was not present for the speech.

    Raul should send this message to Obama, he is still following Fidel’s playbook, spending more then he has.

  289. cobbler says:

    Of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%
    By Joseph E. Stiglitz

  290. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Kettle, 296, kind of. but not really.
    Westy came up with the ingenious idea to use shadow stats, i like those real prices a lot better… click link below.

  291. Kettle1^2 says:

    I am currently updating some of my previous data sets and projections. A curious thing that i keep running into is that when i re-download the full data sets, the 2 data sets do not match exactly. Whether its CS or FHFA or BLS data. It isnt one or 2 isolated values but most of the values in the data series. The differences are generally small. On the order of 1% or less.

    I have data sets 2 and 3 years old that i can compare to the same data set downloaded today. The difference seems odd, as you wouldn’t update every value in the time series when you add a new value……

    Its odd.

  292. Kettle1^2 says:


    Is the shadow stat series available online or is it paid subscription only?

    Re 300:

    Kettle, 296, kind of. but not really.

    ???? comp 10 differs ny 6% compared to the 89 peak and Ny metro differs from its 87 peak by less then 1%

  293. Kettle1^2 says:


    You mentioned the other day that you are not a fan of ShadowStats CPI numbers? What do you feel is wrong with them????

  294. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Very interesting perspective on this chart above at 300. As much as i believe shadow stats are fudging, the result is hard to ignore.
    Assuming shadow stats are accurate, what does this chart really mean? I’ve got several interpretations but no clairvoyance.
    Would anyone really look at this chart and say that housing is the cheapest its ever been in fourty years? And if so, does that seem right?
    Also how accurate is applying CPI-U to housing anyway? Is it really applicable? Maybe bananas and shelter just inflate at different rates?
    etc etc.

  295. Neanderthal Economist says:

    you have to pay for the data and they just jacked their prices ten fold after being bolstered by NY times.

  296. Lone Ranger says:

    Last May Greek cds tumbled after investors cheered the $1T European bailout. 2 year Greek debt fell over the cliff, down to 7.5%. A great sigh of relief; the ECB, with a big assist from the fed’s swap lines, were in control. The shock and awe, $1T, was the saviour. The world’s markets were stroked, this was now contained, green shoots in Europe, on its way across the pond. Never fight the world’s central bankers!


    The idiots, behind the wheel, have laid down the red carpet. Problem is 99% are color blind. Blow the sh#t out, it’s impossible to paper over paper. Bulldoze the ECB, the FED, FHA, IMF and the World Bank. That’s a start. Last target; Bilderberg Group.

  297. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “You mentioned the other day that you are not a fan of ShadowStats CPI numbers? What do you feel is wrong with them?”

    The extremity… Is anyone really spending 10% per year more on all their household expenses? College and healthcare? yes. Gas and food? yes, theyve both been very volatile. Rent, prop tax, childcare, insurance? no. Clothing, computers and vacations seem like theyre going down in price. I would guess that our total household expense inflation is more like, 4 to 6%, even though the BLS is saying its 2.5%. Shadow stats is currently claiming 10.5%.

  298. Kettle1^2 says:


    CPI is a gamed number without doubt. So what do we use for inflation adjustment? There are a number of options but they all have flaws. Acknowledging that CPI is not without its flaws it is one measure that is readily available to all and should at least give us a rough idea.

    is CPI applicable to housing? Yes. CPI gives us a rough idea of the purchasing power of the $ at a given time.

    Note that i am using CPI-U (all components) and am not using CPI ex Food & Energy.

  299. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Shadow Stats are claiming a 23% unemployment rate right now.
    I fear they’re more sensationalized than zero hedge.

  300. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “So what do we use for inflation adjustment?”
    Well this question is exactly my point but i have no answer. Maybe home price inflation is the only inflation that applies to housing. Lets say apples are going up 20% in price per year. Great. Lets shave 20% off the price of a home. What???
    So the definition of cpi is that it gives us purch power measure, but its an average of all types of inflation, it doesnt give us purchasing power of homes, which is what we are really trying to get at.

  301. nj escapee says:


    Here’s an article that may interest you.
    Illegal Offshore Account Holders
    Nearly a half-million Americans have a painful decision to make by Aug. 31 — admit to the IRS that they’ve been hiding secret offshore bank accounts, or take their chances that the government won’t find out and possibly send them to jail.

    For many, it’s not an easy choice. To take advantage of the amnesty program – the second one it has offered, though

  302. Kettle1^2 says:


    here is my original 2009 housing projection that is the source of my projection in you chart at #289. My projections are based on a return to 99 prices ( in real adj terms) at a minimum and a reversion to a (home price / income) ration of about 2.5 – 3 x.

  303. Al Mossberg says:



    Even better when they are powered under solar.

  304. Al Mossberg says:



    Hes got you there Jamil. I see both sides of your arguments. The black nobility of Europe and others are no better than the a holes we call our government. Its one in the same. Just get independent.

    Univ of Texas just liberated 1 billion of gold for delivery.

    God Bless Texas. Only problem is they are storing it in a vault in NY.

  305. Al Mossberg says:

    Post 279 on. Great posts. I agree with them all.

    My question is this. What will it take to unite the people of the US against its domestic enemies?

  306. Al Mossberg says:



    Dollar is weak so the Euro must be temporalily destroyed. Rinse and repeat. In the end we know whats money. So do the Chinese and the Univ of Texas.

  307. Al Mossberg says:


    John Williams at Shadowstats.

    Real inflation is running close to 8%. We will be at 14% by the end of the year. Book it. Any delfationary shocks you buy the dip.

  308. Kettle1^2 says:

    Veto 310

    if you calculate homes price in terms of pretty much any commodity they are close to historical lows. if you calculate median incomes in terms of pretty much any commodity they are also nearing historical lows. However, since about 2000 incomes have in terms of commodities have dropped faster then homes price in terms of commodities. On top of that the average american carries a substantial debt load that is consuming an increasing portion of their income.

    From this point of view, shadow stats makes sense. The problem you and i face are 2 fold. First the wonders of globalization means we now have to compete with slave labor in toxic dumps for wages and bernanke and friends are trying to run the printing press red hot.

    And 23% unemployment seems about right to me if you consider it to be U6 with the shenanigans removed.

  309. Kettle1^2 says:

    Al 315

    My question is this. What will it take to unite the people of the US against its domestic enemies?

    good luck with that! Multiculturalism makes that difficult at best and more likely impossible in a national sense. You might see some solidarity in localized regions, but that is about it. The melting pot is dead.
    Do you really thing the mexican americans in california want the same thing from any revolution that italian americans in NYC want or that asian americans in florida want?

  310. Al Mossberg says:


    Interest rates will rise lagging real inflation until the crack up. Lock your rates in now.

    When the crack up begins the premiums on real money will go through the roof. We saw this in Greece in May of 2009.

  311. Al Mossberg says:



    Hard to disgree with that sentiment. Historically it always results in civil war and the victor (or best financed) writes the history books. Right now we are seeing a civil war at the voting booth between those that produce vs those that are dependent. The key is to be independent.

  312. relo says:

    After the snow blower, the wet dry vac was my favorite purchase last year (non-metals category). The water in the basement is not damaging, just enought to be annoying. More annoying is that I just finished the last beer and there’s a few hours to go. Anyone have a sump pump / drain recommendation? The debt serf attempt to grade and otherwise divert water from the house appears lacking.

  313. Al Mossberg says:



    When you start to see a special kind of cricket in your basement with extra long attenas you know you have a serious problem. They are water loving and they arent your average run of the mill cricket.

    I had to place a sum pit, sump drain and the whole 9 yards to fix my water problem. I almost couldnt sell my place because of the problem. To this day I hate the rain because of what it used to do to my basement in my old place.

  314. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “if you calculate homes price in terms of pretty much any commodity they are close to historical lows.”
    This is similar to adjusting to cpi. Problem is that it doesn’t tell me much. Price to med income makes much more sense to me. Most buy homes with med income, not gold or apples. Its also similar looking at affordability in relation to an overpriced stock, ie home prices to appl stock.

  315. Samivel says:

    Nocera on NPR yesterday advocating mods for all.
    He’s lost all objectivity.

  316. Samivel says:

    Thousands of defaulters already 3-4 years in foreclosure in nj.
    Now that foreclosing mortgagees are held to 1927 standards again
    we’re looking at another 2 maybe 3 years in judicial foreclosure process
    before this is sorted out. All the while lender pays the taxes & insurance
    It’s now about punishment and form of welfare to keep situation in nj
    static at least from appearances. Don’t forget the municipal liens for
    “code violations”. How many townships are relying on this as a steady source
    income both pre & post foreclosure?

  317. Sacha says:

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