From the Record:
“Liar loans” still available, but not for everybody
Stated-income mortgage loans, which do not require borrowers to verify their income, came to be known as “liar loans” during the subprime lending bust when many of the loans went bad and widespread lying about incomes came to light.
Surprisingly, more than 2 1/2 years after the crash of Lehman Brothers, despite a nascent government crackdown on reckless lending, stated income loans are still available to those who know where to look in this slow market.
Hudson City Savings Bank, which is known as a conservative lender, has been making stated income loans for 15 years or more, and still makes them. Spencer Savings Bank, based in Elmwood Park, stopped doing them a few years ago but brought them back in February.
It’s still legal to make such loans, which are also called “low-doc” or “no-doc” loans, but for borrowers they are more expensive and lenders make it hard to lie.
“We don’t want people to tell us they’re a kindergarten teacher making half a million dollars a year,” said Thomas Laird, chief lending officer at Hudson City, the largest New Jersey-based bank.
“The asset position has to be commensurate with the income they are purported to have. They’ve got to be very high quality credit borrowers and they have to have 35 percent or more down in order to qualify,” Laird said.
Borrowers also pay an interest rate half a percentage point higher than conventional loans.
“We are extremely careful with this product,” said Mercedes Pedrick, vice president and director of mortgage originations at Spencer Savings, which has 19 branches in Bergen, Passaic, Morris, Essex, and Union counties.
…
“If they have a savings pattern that shows they are making the kind of income they are telling us they are making, even if they’re not necessarily showing it to Uncle Sam, they may qualify [for a stated income loan],” Laird said.Eventually investment bankers started buying the loans and securitizing them, Alverson said. During the real estate bubble in the mid 2000s the loans were made to many amateur real estate speculators of modest means, and many of those loans soon were in default, Alverson said.
“Everybody wanted to be the next Donald Trump.”
Good Morning New Jersey
From HousingWire:
Spring home sales largely flat: Radar Logic
Home sales in March failed to deliver the same growth spurt that usually defines the onset of the spring-selling season, analytics firm Radar Logic said Thursday when releasing its latest RPX Composite transaction data.
In March, the seasonal uptick in home sales was smaller than usual, with the RPX composite transaction count rising 11.5%, compared to the average 16.5% growth-spurt experienced in the month of March during the course of the past decade.
“On the whole, the 2011 home-buying season has gotten off to a slow start relative to past years,” Radar Logic said in its report. “But sales of foreclosed homes have scarcely missed a beat, thanks to investors bearing cash.”
Even though spring sales are not living up to their usual promise, Radar Logic says investors are “still very active” and are outpacing ordinary buyers who are waiting it out on the sidelines. Radar Logic said investors are going after foreclosed homes, benefiting from prices that are on average 39% lower than regular properties.
At the same time, Radar Logic says investors largely ignored the rest of the market as ordinary sellers have not yet lowered their prices to levels at which investors feel confident they can make an adequate return on their investment.
Hobo,
you’ll get a kick out of this:
Yesterday we reported that Sarah Palin has just purchased a new property in North Scottsdale, AZ for $1.75 million. We further speculated that there may have been some fishyness with regard to the terms of the purchase of the JPM short sale which was an over 100% flip in about a year. So far so good. Where this story takes yet another detour into the macabre, is a cursory analysis of the release deed of the prior mortgage holder of the property, one Steven Soraya, who had a loan amounting to $980,500.00 with Wells Fargo, which was released on July 3, 2007 and which just so happens was signed by Robosigner extraordinaire, the one, the only, the infamous Linda Green. Ergo our question: did miss Palin just procure a property to which there is no legitimate title, and which, therefore, may not have been legitimately sold to her? Oh yes, MERS is of course involved too.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sarah-palin-meet-linda-green-and-mers-was-palins-new-home-purchase-preceded-robosigned-and-f
Do Realtors’ bonus commissions rub home buyers the wrong way? http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/business/realestate/housekeys/blog/2011/05/do_bonus_commissions_for_realt_1.html?
The story on the associated linda green signature
When mortgage analyst Marie McDonnell searched the registry for just part of Essex County she discovered more than 6000 Linda Green signatures.
Marie McDonnell, Forensic Mortgage Analyst
“I’m speechless. The scope of the problem is unimaginable, the depth of the fraud is shocking.”
http://www1.whdh.com/features/articles/hank/BO145706/#ixzz1NR5mJUdw
From the WSJ:
Mortgage Rate Falls to 2011 Low
Home-mortgage interest rates fell last week to the lowest point of 2011 amid signs of a slowing economy, according to the latest survey from Freddie Mac.
“U.S. house prices indexes may be nearing a bottom soon,” Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said, pointing to slower price declines in recent months and a reduction in the serious delinquency rate.
At the same time, the U.S. economy has showed signs of slowing, with Federal Reserve banks in Philadelphia, Chicago and Richmond, Va., reporting less business and manufacturing activity in their regions.
he 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.60% in the week ended Thursday, down from 4.61% the prior week and 4.84% a year ago. The last time the 30-year rate was lower was in the week ended Dec. 2, when the rate was 4.46%. The rate fell to as low as 4.17% in November 2010 before surging to 5.05% in the week ended Feb. 10, 2011.
Rates on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to 3.78% from 3.80% the previous week and 4.21% a year earlier.
Kettle,
Sarah Palin doing something stupid? Who’d have guessed?
Any loans with 35% down should be considered a good loan even the loan is called liar loan, cheat loan, fraud loans.
They’ve got to be very high quality credit borrowers and they have to have 35 percent or more down in order to qualify,” Laird said.
All you little snot-nosed brats need to understand that matter how hard you try to keep up an image, the old adage still holds true: money talks and bullsh1t walks. If you don’t have 35% and some heavy duty assets, then shut the f*ck up and go sit in the corner and play with your twitter. B1tch!
If you can pass Hudson City’s procto-exam, you deserve all the money they will lend you. They don’t sell their loans into the secondary market.
Hudson City does not accept short sales or entertain loan mods, no matter what the potential terms or recovery rate. They simply foreclose.
grim (6)-
Freddie Mac Chief Economist = designer of the Edsel = pilot of the Hindenburg= British sentry at Trenton = NAR Chief Economist= 0
Here’s something for all you Neil Diamond fans to go along with your morning coffee:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rz8QcquZLo4&feature=related
Lehman, redux. Everything old is new again.
“Two days ago Zero Hedge revealed that “someone” may know something is fishy in Belgium’s biggest bank Dexia, after two of the biggest investors in the bank’s recent €3.2 billion FRN issuance decided to put their portion back to the bank. Sure enough, less than 48 hours later, the company’s shares were halted, without much information, and it was subsequently revealed that the bank would book a multi-billion loss on asset sales, as a result it would accelerate the sale of non-core assets, and would divest its financial products portfolio. Once again, we see efficient markets in action. Luckily for Blackrock and Barclays, the market was just a little more efficient for them than for everyone else. And to anyone who dipped into Dexia protection as per our suggestion, now may be a good time to take some profits… or not.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dexia-shares-halted-advance-substantial-loss-asset-disposition-announcement
Rammstein and grain alcohol. Mmmm…
Hobo,
Does it get much better than that? :)
Ket and Dissident… Faux will cover your posts as “lame stream media viciously targeting a ‘regular citizen'” in 3… 2… 1…
A vicious racist moron moving from AK to AZ is net neutral. Now, if such people move out of NY/NJ to AZ/TX… that would be a good news!
I guess Sarah Palin is losing her foreign policy credentials since she’ll no longer be able to see Russia from her new home. That woman is so dumb she makes Obama look like a nuclear physicist.
If Ron Paul is on the ballot I vote for him; if not I write him in; the rest of these clowns are bought and paid for empire building, state hugging, corporate shills.
More sh*t you can’t make up from Mish:
How to Beat the Market: Follow the Trades of 19 Senators on the Senate Armed Services Committee Who Own Stocks on Prohibited List
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/05/how-to-beat-market-follow-trades-of-19.html
Sarah Palin, MERS, Linda Green and a short sale…four fuel rods of stupid, exposed to the air.
Dissident, she can see Mexico from her house though… Re. O, you don’t become Editor of Harvard Law Review without a couple of functioning brain cells.
Ron and Rand Paul are nuts. Occasionally they do something very admirable (I applaud Rand’s filibuster of Patriot Act and feel sad about Reid doing “if you stop this, you are with terror!sts” cr@p…) However, the operative word is “occasionally” — like once in 1000 tries…
Left-leaning Ed Schultz has been suspended from msnbc cable television for referring to radio talk show host Laura Ingraham as a “right-wing s1ut” and “talk s1ut” on his syndicated radio show Tuesday.
Hey Ed, we understand… you’re an old, fat f*ck with a wee winkie and Laura can get any man she wants. Perhaps you should consider finding another male counterpart to commiserate?
In regards to hoboken discussion yesterday. Hehe ‘s theory is much closer to the truth. Hostile employees in city hall, sending confidential emails to the BNR’s. FBI has had a hard on for Russo and crew for years. Heads will roll, arrests will be made.
Zimmer is a Lot of things, but corrupt isn’t one of them. Her cozying up to the fat man doesn’t hurt for him to make a phone call or two.
IT Guys will turn first, That 411 guy will flip, then watch out
On the other hand Frank will still think prices are on Fire!!!
Sas3,
Keep feeding the beast and watch it eat itself.
sastry (20)-
Educated and intelligent are two different things. IMO, Bojangles is as stupid as GWB. Just another eerie similarity between the two.
Actually, GWB may be the smarter of the two. Bojangles doesn’t even realize he’s been completely co-opted and punked by banksters.
Stan,
That’s a given. Those BNR’s working in city hall want it all to go back to the days when their no show/no work jobs were safe and instead of having some woman looking over their shoulder they could get back to the real job of figuring out their next scam for skimming off the top of the tax reciepts or selling the best permits/inspections that money can buy.
My BIL and SIL are both PhDs. They are educated, yet dumb as bags of hammers.
They have both spent their careers in denial of the fact that observed past behavior is a good predictor of future behavior and that character is also an excellent predictor of future actions that people might take. As a result, they have been screwed repeatedly.
Clot,
I work on a daily basis with dozens of Ivy League law grads. Just like every place else for every brilliant one, there’s two smart one’s, a couple mediocre one’s, and a couple abject morons.
Yes… we…. can.
Hopefully we get some good Friday doom. Ill take that 25% tax cut Cantor is offering for individuals and corporations. The only think I hate more than big corps are gov t_t suckers and will gladly pay more at the pump if it means a jelly donut eating scum bag loses their pension.
#17 The fact that she is seriously considering a run fro President, is just staggering. Once again, I ask, why bother, so what and who cares.
#20 The only reason Ron Paul is crazy, is because he is right on more than a few subjects; he is so crazy he is right.
Gallup had a bogus poll yesterday. Bought and paid for.
Neocon Romney 17%
Neocon Palin 15%
Paul 10%
Neocon Gingrich 9%
Cain 5%
This next election cycle will demonstrate the full stupidity of the American Walmarter. America deserves everything it going to get. I just wish we could hurry up on the doom.
Hey SAS3 at least the Pauls have conviction and I’m not talking about the felony type. I respect that a lot more than abject BS that propagates out of the mouths of most political shills.
Clot second your PhD statement. Spend a career working with two life sciences degrees in a field populataed with phuds and you will know real pain.
True story one phud told me I was lazy for not pursuing my PhD. My retort was thus well we both get paid the same, I never had to be a stipend slave for someone else’s research, my graduate thesis held up to the same rigor as yours, I held a real job and still managed to bag a couple of undergrads because I had money and finally the coux de gras most of all I have common sense, I value that more than any degree.
Yemen on brink of civil war as fighting worsens
“SANAA (Reuters) – Yemeni tribesmen said they wrested a military compound from elite troops loyal to President Ali Abdullah Saleh outside the capital Sanaa on Friday as increased fighting threatened to tip the country into civil war.
Tribal leader Sheikh Hamid Asim told Reuters his fighters killed the base’s military commander and a separate tribal source said the Yemeni air force dropped bombs to prevent the tribesmen from seizing an arms cache at the site.”
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/yemen-brink-civil-war-protesters-gather-080855573.html
Next will be Syria. Then Bahrain. Eventually the House of Saud will fall and thats when the games begin in earnest. How can anyone not have some oil exposure with this juicy doom on the horizon?
If the appraisal isn’t rigged, who cares who gets a loan with 35 per cent skin in the game?
Anybody here like Platinum? Besides natural gas, it seems like the only commodity conspicuously way off it’s all time high.
it REALLY IS time to eliminate pensions for elected representatives:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/uc/20110527/cm_uc_crmmax/op_1918099;_ylt=AuUfZdm_f71HGQljysvCTzaMwfIE;_ylu=X3oDMTJ0ZDkxMGJhBGFzc2V0A3VjLzIwMTEwNTI3L29wXzE5MTgwOTkEY2NvZGUDb2ZmZ2JmNTBrBGNwb3MDMwRwb3MDMwRzZWMDeW5fdG9wX3N0b3JpZXMEc2xrA2Jhcm5leWZyYW5rMw–
George W. Bush made Chauncy Gardner look like a reasonable alternative for president.
“she’ll no longer be able to see Russia from her new home.”
Ahh, but you miss the point, now she will be able to point to her observation of the southern border as well. I submit that this makes her all the more well rounded. Now, if she will listen to the Rythym on the Saints, she can profess knowledge of Aftican Rythyms, and, thus, by implication, African geopolitics, or polotical economy, if you will.
They are about to start an ETF backed 100% by underlying Diamonds. First ever. So you can hedge Diamonds and bet on them. Watch it, should be cool.
he Original NJ ExPat says:
May 27, 2011 at 8:56 am
Anybody here like Platinum? Besides natural gas, it seems like the only commodity conspicuously way off it’s all time high.
Diamonds are too frick’n common. Heck, they only have value because the cartel holds back such a huge percentage of those mined.
Pain 33, that guy was probably trying to be snooty (or were you trying to tell him that doing a PhD is a waste?).
The general consensus over PhDs is that it is often not going to be financially better and you do it only if you like it. Consensus among people I worked closely with is, it is a learning experience, and is necessary for some fields (academia definitely, and often in the industry). For example, in pharma, not having a PhD can be a limiting factor in the role one can play — best combo is MD + MBA and you can get nice corner offices, but… Again, may be more money in other areas, but if one wants to be a principal investigator, one needs a PhD.
My personal view, live and let live. All of our lives will be inconsequential a few hundred years down the line, so no point in pissing contests — unless it is with family members or friends that we get into fights with anyway :)
And you think gold and plat don’t have same issues, besides it is all irrelvant. Only relevant thing is can I make money. I think because they are esesentially beanie babies prices will be all over the place, do a collar on ETF and as it plays ping pong cash out on the collars and keep re-collaring.
Shore Guy says:
May 27, 2011 at 9:19 am
Diamonds are too frick’n common. Heck, they only have value because the cartel holds back such a huge percentage of those mined.
Pain, as I get older and older, I realize more and more that it is better to deal with a crook for sale than with a self-righteous ideologue. At least you can negotiate and get something by yielding on something else. So, “convictions” can be a double edged sword in some cases. That’s one reason I think O is good — he is willing to sit next the sh!t that calls themselves “responsible and conservative” (they are neither), and still pretend that it doesn’t smell too bad.
21
I’m pretty sure Laura Ingraham is a tranny.
Sastry
To put things into perspective, if you were in colonial times you would be a loyalist who preferred negotiating with king george while pain and hobo would have been staunch revolutionaries.
Hughes #45,
I’m dying here. I literally just did a google image search and was thinking the same thing and just read your post.
#45, you are insulting trannies. Some of them look a more pleasant and have some feminine grace. The only thing that can be insulting to Ingram is to say that she looks like Coulter.
Even the conservative “hot women” look like the characters in horror movies where the devil takes the form of a plastic barbie doll like woman. Women that kill pregnant moose for fun are a bit scary!
Ket, I think we are too far from any revolution (let’s see the voter turnout beyond 75% and then can talk about things being out of control). The whole “oppression” is over a piddly 300 bps in tax rate!
When really things become unbearable, good people band together — and people on opposite ends of the political spectrum may actually find themselves together…
Sastry
I am not saying we ate bound for revolution just using the first American revolution as an illustration of the differences in your point of views. Once again consider that this nation was founded by a minority who took action over tariffs. Why did they revolt over a few uncomfortable taxes.
If we agree for the moment that most politicians are bought and paid for crooks then you can easily make the hypothetical argument that we ate right back to taxation without representation. As those who were elected to represent do not represent the electors but who ever pays the highest price.
“Women that kill pregnant moose for fun are a bit scary!”
But when they are wearing knee-high boots and a micromini skirt, it is the kind of danger I live on. Which reminds me of a story. It all started while I was caressing the crush velour seat that Teddy Kennedy had vomited on just the week before.
Cleaning Kennedy vomit was the third worst thing I have every done. Right behind my job as a janitor once emptying out the tampon dispensers in the ladies rooms and killing lab animals.
Shadow of John says:
May 27, 2011 at 9:53 am
“Women that kill pregnant moose for fun are a bit scary!”
But when they are wearing knee-high boots and a micromini skirt, it is the kind of danger I live on. Which reminds me of a story. It all started while I was caressing the crush velour seat that Teddy Kennedy had vomited on just the week before.
SAS3 I have not done too badly in pharma with just a masters and know plenty in the same boat. While I don’t refute the fact the MBA MD’s get the good positions most of them do not last long in their positions because, despite their degrees they do not have the accumen for rationale thought.
Ket – Hobo is definately Patrick Henry in carnate, WWfor Beer Samuel Adams, I’m more a Richard Stockton myself.
Memorial Day fun – pick your founding father
al (34)-
A bunch of camel jockeys can overrun a Yemeni military base, yet people think an insurgency inside the US is impossible.
Yeah, right. Whatever.
“Yemeni tribesmen said they wrested a military compound from elite troops loyal to President Ali Abdullah Saleh…”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pending-home-sales-slump-116-in-april-2011-05-27-100100?siteid=bnbh
Housing is dead money for 50-100 years. The market has been driven into suspended animation by massive amounts of fraud, bogus valuations and the toxic symptoms that have flowed from them.
camels are the ships of the desert as they are full of seaman
#55 There is a place that nestles gently, yet spreads out majestically upon the banks of the mighty Hackensack river, where prices have risen 26% from 2010 to 2011.
As such the link that you have provided would not be applicable to this magical place. lathered in pixie dust.
58. Lathered in PCBs.
Last thread: May 27, 2011 at 10:32 am
jj 56
essex 59
not beans, beer. Beer and bicycles. Cannot tell you how many “mexican rodeo” victims have landed in the ERs I’ve worked in.
sl
Last thread:
grim,
You must have missed my last wrestling attempt with the Ivy. Suffice it to say, I will never be “Ivy League.”
Rash finally gone. Some spots still healing/fading. Passed on prednisone. Used 50-50 mix of bleach/water and dabbed it on, left it for 10-20 mins then washed off. Stopped the itch. Stop the local spread.
The auto-sensitization splotches are finally going away. I never believed/trusted the auto sensitization thing. The allergist I work for part time confirmed it for me….I guess I gotta believe now.
Also:
Zanfel (expensive) = waste of money.
Feels almost as good as s3x while applying – it has an abrasive so it scratches it for you — but ultimately, I found it not so helpful.
sl
#59 Good One!!
Clot,
Obama just renewed the Patriot Act for four more years – hmmm why is that?
And last….
I went on the poison ivy removal rampage to prepare for the party June 11th.
As with the GTG. Yes you are invited. Please RSVP if you can. I gotta calculate food -beverage-chairs ratios.
It’s a pool party, kids are invited, bring towels. I am arranging for a lifeguard for 100% pool watch. (YES we actually got the pool in working order!! It still needs some work but it’s not a pond anymore.)
We are really excited….
sl
Back to Westlaw, peons. You will draft that memorandum of law by 3:00 or we are outsourcing your job to coal country:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/24/business/24lawyers.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print
While people who went to work for non AmLaw 100 firms could generally expect lower starting salaries, this new system has got to convince folks attending state schools that there is no good reason to borrow $60-100,000 for a law degree.
“bring towels”
And Tyvek suits for venturing out into the yard?
Squandering Medicare’s Money
snip
Medicare pays for routine screening colonoscopies in patients over 75 even though the United States Preventive Services Task Force, an independent panel of experts financed by the Department of Health and Human Services, advises against them (and against any colonoscopies for patients over 85), because it takes at least eight years to realize any benefits from the procedure. Moreover, colonoscopies carry risks of serious complications (like perforations) and often lead to further unnecessary procedures (like biopsies). In 2009, Medicare paid doctors more than $100 million for nearly 550,000 screening colonoscopies; around 40 percent were for patients over 75.
The task force recommends against screening for prostate cancer in men 75 and older, and screening for cervical cancer in women 65 and older who have had a previous normal Pap smear, but Medicare spent more than $50 million in 2008 on such screenings, as well as additional money on unnecessary procedures that often follow.
Two recent randomized trials found that patients receiving two popular procedures for vertebral fractures, kyphoplasty and vertebroplasty, experienced no more relief than those receiving a sham procedure. Besides being ineffective, these procedures carry considerable risks. Nevertheless, Medicare pays for 100,000 of these procedures a year, at a cost of around $1 billion.
• Multiple clinical trials have shown that cardiac stents are no more effective than drugs or lifestyle changes in preventing heart attacks or death. Although some studies have shown that stents provide short-term relief of chest pain, up to 30 percent of patients receiving stents have no chest pain to begin with, and thus derive no more benefit from this invasive procedure than from equally effective and far less expensive medicines. Risks associated with stent implantation, meanwhile, include exposure to radiation and to dyes that can damage the kidneys, and in rare cases, death from the stent itself. Yet one study estimated that Medicare spends $1.6 billion on drug-coated stents (the most common type of cardiac stents) annually.
• A recent study found that one-fifth of all implantable cardiac defibrillators were placed in patients who, according to clinical guidelines, will not benefit from them. But Medicare pays for them anyway, at a cost of $50,000 to $100,000 per device implantation.
snip
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/26/opinion/26redberg.html
Hey, slackers, what did YOU do on your summer vacation?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110527/sc_afp/australiaastrophysicsscience
Re Hoboken,
Rumors FBI visiting certain individuals this morning in Marine View – home of many a vacation home owning municipal employee living in taxpayer subsidized housing.
Shore, 67
I cleared most of the poison ivy…. tyvek not needed…
sl
http://blogs.forbes.com/beltway/2011/05/26/the-day-the-united-states-defaulted-on-treasury-bills/
70- something big is brewing here, I love a good Hob-Political scandal to start of my weekend.
Homeboken,
Yeah looks like some Hobokenites aren’t going to be making the trip down to DJAIS for JJ’s Annual Memorial Day Weekend Belmar Blowout!!!
But JJ will be there!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RfUMBgfhn0
HEHE- I challenge anyone to find a more annoying environment than Djai’s tonight around 6:30 onward. I would rather sit naked inside the Fukushima reactor core for the night.
Homeboken,
What are you talking about? At 6:30 this evening Djais is going to morph into D-jai-jais!
75
Seaside is much worse than Belmar. Bamboo is in either the sixth or seventh level of hell.
I actually only went to the Jersey short twice in my life. Very Very Very white trashy. I think Jersey Shore improved their image.
I will now do things I hate about Jersey Shore:
No Parking
Stupid Rules like you can’t drink beer on your front lawn.
Bars close early.
Cops sit in parking lot of every bar looking to give everyone a DWI
Fat girls. I ran 12 Hampton houses. I always did 50/50 girls/guys. If I did not know girls I would do a January or February Cocktail party to meet the prospects. It was like casting a realty show. Do realty shows have ugly fat girls who live at home in New Jersey who wear glasses and dress bad? No and neither did my summer houses. But somehow NJ shore houses look like the before on the biggest loser.
They you have places like Cape May, they a a stick up their butt, I love the horrible divey places to stay that say no children as they have “valuable” antiques. More like worthless crap.
Plus what is with all the horrible cars out in the Shore. Please like ten year old japanese cars have no place in a summer house. I expect German/English/Italian high end cars, Cool American 1960’s covertibles or fun new Jeep Wrangler. For me driving a damm Camry or Accord four door car to the Hamptons would be my own personal vietnam
I agree it’s dead money right now and suburban single families may indeed be dead money for a longer period. But higher oil prices could easily reverse the multi-generational wash out to the suburbs. Big conference planners no this tide well as it happens with every big multi-hotel conference. Everybody wants to stay at the best hotel closest to the conference but as attendees are priced out and prime inventory vanishes they “wash out” to the outlying hotels. Then as the conference starting date nears there comes a wave of cancellations and the attendees “wash in” canceling their cheap rooms on the outskirts to scoop up deals closer to the action.
Cheap oil, good highways, good schools, low RE cost & taxes = wash out to the suburbs.
$$$ oil, deteriorating schools, lower level of services with ever rising taxes = wash in to the cities.
Your far out McMansion neighborhoods are destined to one day be ghettos as the poor get pushed out of the cities during the wash in.
Hobo With a Shotgun says:
May 27, 2011 at 10:11 am
Housing is dead money for 50-100 years. The market has been driven into suspended animation by massive amounts of fraud, bogus valuations and the toxic symptoms that have flowed from them.
They you have places like Cape May, they a a stick up their butt, I love the horrible divey places to stay that say no children as they have “valuable” antiques. More like worthless crap.
Plus what is with all the horrible cars out in the Shore. Please like ten year old japanese cars have no place in a summer house. I expect German/English/Italian high end cars, Cool American 1960’s covertibles or fun new Jeep Wrangler. For me driving a damm Camry or Accord four door car to the Hamptons would be my own personal vietnam
Oy! In the 70s, places like Baby-O, Temptations, etc. , down in Seaside, were like polyester and hairspray hell. Bump, thumpa, bump, thumpa, bump.
“tyvek not needed”
Damn, and I had one fashioned into a leisure suit, both in honor of Seaside’s disco heyday and, in case my schedule frees up and allows me to say hello to folks face-to-face.
Cape may is a dump next to Ocean Grove, and the Grove does not take forever to get to. (I am watching out for my high school english teacher’s ruler)
82. Nonsense.
Don’t forget Surf Club in Ortley Beach.
Shore Guy says:
May 27, 2011 at 12:51 pm
Oy! In the 70s, places like Baby-O, Temptations, etc. , down in Seaside, were like polyester and hairspray hell. Bump, thumpa, bump, thumpa, bump.
The crowd at the Surf Club always struck me as a mix of cops and criminals.
And the grove is closer to the train to NY, so, there.
Back in the day when I used to go to Hamptons in college Saturday morning and sleep in car I once saw U2 play at hotdog beach. They were just at beach and hotdog had a cover band playing and they jumped up and did a few songs. Funny, back in day no cell phones, no BBs, no IPADs, no body even brought a camera to beach. They did their few songs for us and just headed out. Today within five minutes with twitter and facebook a free U2 concert would cause a riot.
Neptunes beach in the 1980s had this DJ called Crazy John who pretty much cursed and had all types of near naked drinking games. When I was in college we used to get to beach at 9am drink till 3pm, go to Boardy Barn then we usually ran into some girls who let us use their shower and make us a BBQ , then go to a CPI, then at 3am go to Eds Bay Pub till 4:30am then sleep in car then hit diner then off to beach since parking was legal at sunrise where we would pass out and wake up around 11am as Crazy John started his routine again.
Best place to sleep in car is that slo jacks place by far. Burger place/mini golf thing in Hampton bays that closed around midnight, had bathrooms that you enter from outside restaurant they never locked and no lights in parking lot. When it was too cold or rainy for beach we sleep in the lot, great, had a bathroom could even brush teeth and they had a breakfast special. Once woke up to smell of bacon and eggs 99 cent special. That was pure heaven as I was down to my last buck.
I find it funny that todays college kids never do stuff like that. A case of beer, a beat up car and $20 bucks is all you needed. Trouble with Jersey Shore they would arrest college kids who did what I did in the hamptons even back then. Heck I got pulled over in NJ once ten minutes after I got there once in a DWI search. Jerk was like are you drunk I was like it is only midnight, guy was like are you drunk. I go it is only midnight. I did not realize clubs close so early so I was on way to club and cop thought I was on way home. Dope could not comprehend someone going out to a bar at midnight.
Hampton’s still has places like Bordy Barn with huge parking lots that are dimly lit. You just park an RV, Van, SUV, big old american car in lot. Bordy even allows tailgating. Of course prices have risen, it used to be Five Beers for One buck with a Five dollar cover. I always found it amazing that people would go in drunk first. I never entered the barn sober and left it even worse off. Once I drank 40 beers on Labor day weekend and our lease ended at midnight. I passed out on coach and headed home at 11pm with no time to shower. Bordy had a climax at end of Happy hour where they did the theme to Hawai 50 and people would lock legs get on floor and pretend to be rowing the canoe like at begining of show and everyone would throw beer. Could not take beer with you and most people bought like 50 beers each as it was only 5 bucks and it was all in cups. If you were rowing or throwing either way you were beer soaked head to toe. The stink was outrageous.
Shore Guy says:
May 27, 2011 at 12:51 pm
Oy! In the 70s, places like Baby-O, Temptations, etc. , down in Seaside, were like polyester and hairspray hell. Bump, thumpa, bump, thumpa, bump.
And closer to both the Stone Pony and the Donna Reed of Rock ‘n’ Roll
Just another reminder that Ticketmaster has, in this one citizen’s opinion, ruined the process of seeing live music in larger venues.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703730804576319113516143894.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
“then sleep in car then hit diner then off to beach since parking was legal at sunrise where we would pass out and wake up around 11am ”
Back in the day, some people used to refer to Upstage as the cheapest hotel in Asbury. The law required that it close for an hour — sometime around midnight as I rercall — then it would be open until 6 a.m., just in time to get breakfast and head down to the beach to sleep all day.
“Trouble with Jersey Shore they would arrest college kids who did what I did in the hamptons even back then.”
In Seaside, back in the 70s, it is likely that you would have been beaten by the, um, authorities. The cops and seasonal cops over there were complete and utter SOBs, to everyone, well, except to pretty lasses.
Seems like housing sales volume is plunging just like that Air France jet.
Back in the 80s we slept in our car plenty of times in Seaside Heights. Cops would just tap on the window and say move along, the parking lot at the supermarket or the gravel lot at the end of town worked best. Showers at the bath house on the north end of town and then hit the beach all day and then off for a few slices of pizza or a cheese steak. We were only 17 so getting into the clubs was the real challenge off duty cops working the door were real hard asses, some of us would get in while others were turned away so it was 50/50 whether you had any chance to get in or spend the night walking the boardwalk or sleeping in the car. Occasionally we would rent a room at one of those sleazy hotels there and then proceed to invite in a dozen friends for a party, sometimes we would get tossed out of the Hotel after only an hour because someone invited that friend the crazy one who would start tearing up the place. It is always fight night in Seaside Heights usually when the clubs let out a throw down in the middle of the streets. Kinda funny watching guys wearing body glove shorts and neon tank tops rolling around on the pavement, before the cops came along and chased everyone away. I watched that Seaside show on MTV once, it is really tame compared to how I remember how violent the place was during the summer and how bad the cops were smacking around kids with billy clubs and mace.
Pain, sastry
Consider that today corporations are legally people with a voting voice and that thanks to recent supreme court rulings, money = speech. as such the situation is in many ways similar to what caused the American revolution. We now have legislatures full of professional politicians who pretend to represent the people but in actuality represent those interests with the deepest pockets. In our current situation where money = speech, short of being a billionaire the people have little chance of competing against big monied interests.
A modern day tea party could be triggered by something as simple as a VAT. And it wouldn’t be the VAT itself that caused it but would instead be the spark that lights the fuse.
if the people were truly represented the first bank bailout would have never passed and we would probably be entering into the recovery phase after a rapid nasty depression cleared the insolvent from the system similar to 1921.
BS, scalpers always got the tickets. Back in the day box office clerks would tip off scalpers when braclets were given out, then when tickemaster started selling in record stores scalpers knew the stores where there would be no line. For instance Iron Maden, got to five towns where it is all hadedic and hit their store, then 800 numbers. I used to call ticketmaster Canada for Bruce tickets. Dopes would be stuck on 800 numbers. Even now I have multiple sources for my tickets. I like SCOREBIG where you can do an ebay approach below market with no fees, I also like charity auctions. A hot concert ticket with a $100 face going on Stubhub for $500 you can buy from a charity for $500 and get a $400 tax deduction.
Trouble is it is wack a mole with scalpers they are getting tickets no matter what you do.
Shore Guy says:
May 27, 2011 at 1:47 pm
Just another reminder that Ticketmaster has, in this one citizen’s opinion, ruined the process of seeing live music in larger venues.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703730804576319113516143894.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
“if the people were truly represented the first bank bailout would have never passed and we would probably be entering into the recovery phase after a rapid nasty depression cleared the insolvent from the system similar to 1921.”
If the people were truly represented there wouldn’t have been a Federal Reserve to exacerbate the business cycles in the first place.
People were represented on this board. Did I not tell everyone to buy BAC, C, AIG, GMAC bonds when they were trading for pennies on the dollar?
If I ever meet Ms. Whitney I am going to give her a big kiss. Telling world C and BAC going broke letting me get bonds 1/2 price only to ride them to par and then she gives me another gift when she makes up tall tales about Muni bonds!!!! Please cry wolf one more time I got capital to put to work.
Hehe and Ket I agree. I’m in fact looking forward to draconian austerity or hyperinflation. I don’t think the Euros know what rioting is until it is done American style.
I think the economy is doing great. The only people who are in trouble are people who bought an expensive trade up house or first house between 2004 and 2008 and over leveraged themselves.
Anyone who bought a home pre 2000 who did not HELOC the hell out of it the whole thing is a non-event.
Only issue this time is low rates are not spurring home buying as people don’t want to trade up. Instead with no mortgage or car loans people feel free again!! Low low rates in banks encourages people to pay off debt!
Bigger issue is people don’t know how to invest their money. With housing a dead, metals/stocks/bonds at new highs and interest rates on savings near zero what do people do with cash. Answer is maybe spend spend spend which may lead to inflation.
99- the economy is always doing great, for some people
however even for those people who bought pre-2000, is the gas/food/zirp helping or hurting them?
HE (63)-
So they can rendition me to some CIA prison in Romania.
“People were represented on this board. Did I not tell everyone to buy BAC, C, AIG, GMAC bonds when they were trading for pennies on the dollar?”
JJ,
I give credit where credit is due. As disgusting as it is to admit, you were right -the bailout trade was the correct one. The downside is will it be there during the next crisis which should present itself in the not too distant future after they spent so much $ this first go around.
jj (97)-
When it’s all said and done, Meredith Whitney’s gonna be doing you with a strap-on while telling you to squeal like a pig.
Not a whiff of deflation talk around here anymore.
“Anyone who bought a home pre 2000 who did not HELOC the hell out of it the whole thing is a non-event.”
BS. The value of the housing market is approx 20T. If values are down 5%, yoy, that’s 1T of net worth wiped out; approx $4B every working day; gone with the wind. If the asset continues to decline while the cost to carry increases, how’s this a non event? Sounds like you’re digging deeper into a rat hole.
“Low low rates in banks encourages people to pay off debt!”
Sounds like a depression for an economy reliant on consumer spending.
Lone housing has lost 7T wost part is it still needs to go another 7T to return to the historical average of 3% annual gains. Even worse is that is exactly where we are headed.
Juice [106],
Yep. This bust will be much larger and longer in duration than most can imagine. By the time it’s over, maybe DJais will bring back 5 for $1.
Speaking of DJais one block north there is a wonderful 2 million dollar Belmar mansion for sale where the pizza place used to be.
Any takers?
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1409-Ocean-Ave-Belmar-NJ-07719/61905247_zpid/#{scid=hdp-site-map-bubble-address}
what does the price of housing have to do with the tea in China? And why would I possibly want housing to go up in value? For instance, lets say a pos starter home costs 300k and a mansion costs 1.5 million or 5x the cost of the starter home. if I POS doubled in value the mansion would be 3 million costing me 2.4 million to trade up. If my starter home fell in value to one dollar the trade up at 5x would cost five dollars. I could be in a mansion for an extra four bucks.
Or how about this, your 300K becomes 900K and you have three kids. You make 600K, but your three kids have to pay an extra 1.8 million for their homes.
The savings in a home is I can’t be kicked out and I pay no rent. Every month with no mortgage payment and no rent due is a blessing. Who cares about home prices? It is imaginary money as most people never sell. We may trade up or trade down but pretty much stay in the market.
Lone Ranger says:
May 27, 2011 at 3:32 pm
“Anyone who bought a home pre 2000 who did not HELOC the hell out of it the whole thing is a non-event.”
BS. The value of the housing market is approx 20T. If values are down 5%, yoy, that’s 1T of net worth wiped out; approx $4B every working day; gone with the wind. If the asset continues to decline while the cost to carry increases, how’s this a non event? Sounds like you’re digging deeper into a rat hole.
“Low low rates in banks encourages people to pay off debt!”
Sounds like a depression for an economy reliant on consumer spending.
“Low low rates in banks encourages people to pay off debt!”
ZIRP is causing grandma to eat cat food.
“Who cares about home prices?”
JJ,
Probably the most asinine comment ever, on this blog. Congrats, you certainly have had tough competion here.
competition.
Same for my mother in law. But oddly it is her own fault as well as your Grandma’s.
First of all they should have been rolling Five year FDIC CD’s and ten year treasuries if they were risk adverse. Than in 2009/2010 they could have got investment grade bonds cheap and than in 2011 investment grade munis cheap. Rates did not fall like a brick until October 2008.
Instead they left it in six month, one year cds or cash. They got crushed as they took on huge interest rate risk. They should have laddered. When I worked at the bank I would all the time open up a 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 year CD for the grannies that did not reinvest interest as grannies lived off interest. When one year cd matured I rolled it into a five year cd, so on and so on. Super conser strat. Maybe mix it up with 1-10 treasuries and savings bonds. It is insane for someone who lives on interest income alone with a zero risk tollerance to take on the huge risk of eating cat food.
My own mom I did her orginal roll with 3-10 year bonds/cds and renewed with tens. When interest rates plummeted in 2001 it did not matter much.
Juice Box says:
May 27, 2011 at 4:05 pm
“Low low rates in banks encourages people to pay off debt!”
ZIRP is causing grandma to eat cat food.
I ment who cares if home prices fall. I want them to fall. I want them to crash. I am a real estate bear. I would love it if my neighbors lost their home and I can scoop up all the houses for one dollar each.
Worse thing that could happen is for home prices to rise.
Lone Ranger says:
May 27, 2011 at 4:08 pm
“Who cares about home prices?”
JJ,
Probably the most asinine comment ever, on this blog. Congrats, you certainly have had tough competion here.
Best part of one dollar houses would be paying the realtor his six cents commission.
juice (104)-
No need for us to talk deflation. There will be enough of it coming out of Bergabe and Eraserhead when they ramp up the pressure to initiate QE3.
BTW, where is the credit expansion that will partner up with the money printing and keep us out of deflation?
Please let me know when the credit expansion mechanism cranks up again.
Ranger (105)-
Wall St Genius also conveniently forgets that the other way of making debt go away is via acknowledgment and write down.
Ranger (107)-
15 drinks for $3 is about what it would take to get me hammered enough to want to tag one of the Snooki-type brontoginches who are attached to that place like green flies on a turd.
jj (115)-
Hate to inform, but in war zones like Detroit and Cleveland (where you can actually score a house for $1), agents jack their rates.
Gotta pay the man.
Bitch.
Better hope Barca wins tomorrow.
Because the natives are testy over their necronomy and already in the streets.
Fun photos. Didn’t realize riot batons could raise such impressive welts:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jamon-y-baton-extended-photogallery-violent-barcelona
Hit the Memphis Tap Room today…I will try to post more over the weekend….
FYI – Must post some quotes from Dr. Albert Barnes…absolutely clotesque….
As an example….he refers in the passage to the University of Pennsylvania as “The Morgue”
‘`Intelligent Philadelphians are wondering why a collection of paintings which many people—including the director of the Louvre and the director of the Pinakothek, Munich-have said is one of the most important in the world, should be condemned by a teacher in your institution, which is generally referred to as the ‘Morgue “‘; and “The fact seems to be that your director-Neros are still fiddling arid your senile, befuddled faculty are producing vituperation instead of intelligent, sober instruction. “‘
#120 and in reply to JJ’s rotten 6 cents- Guy I worked with had a deal with Chase Bank about 10 years ago. Chase would sell him all of their problem REO. Stuff where the municipal liens for board up or demolition exceeded their BPO value. Properties bringing negative media attention, municipal headaches and assorted other bullsh*t. He paid $1 per property and they paid him a $3000 commission.
All the properties were bought in a corporate name. Not only was this free money, but then the guy gives me a list of more than 100 properties and tells me, whatever money you can get out of this we’ll split 50/50. The 6 or 7 properties that had value brought in over $150,000. We were the garbage men of the real estate industry.
Stu car this weekend? Email me.
Anyone know a good attorney in Bergen Co. The attorney i have used for 10 years passed away from a brain tumor. I need to transition some stuff and the one handling the wind down of the office is not giving me the warm and fuzzies He is heading to the curb.
chi (123)-
Give my regards to Mr. Falafel (the ganiff, Jeremy Siegel) next to Franklin Field. Hope you didn’t stroll too far west from campus and across the DMZ.
My last trip to Penn was memorable for the amount of rats I saw.
Clot,
Tomorrows tune of the day if Barca lose.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLsgjTEvt_U
Here come the north jersey cheese dicks. Feminized males looking for their trash wh_re gf for the weekend. Welcome to the real nj bitchez. Take you eye brow plucking tools out in a 3-5 foot gale and see how tough u are.
(113)-
The Wall St Genius says it’s grandma’s fault for simply saving.
Bad on granny for not having someone on the inside to tell her when to follow the “risk on” trade.
We are completely and pluperfectly fcuked.
ag (130)-
My daughter is bossing her date through the prom tonight.
Stupid fcuk is 4 inches shorter than her, fat and can’t look you in the eye and talk at the same time.
Last thing I said to my daughter is to boot him out of the limo if he starts to weep or does other stupid stuff. His 300 lb mom can come pick him up.
Mikeinwaiting:
You have mail.
Speaking of proms
http://www.kob.com/article/stories/s2122102.shtml
Hobo,
Was your daughter’s date nervously licking his own eyebrows? If so, he might not be getting kicked out of the limo. Or not kicked out early, at least;-)
132.Hobo With a Shotgun says:
May 27, 2011 at 8:46 pm
ag (130)-
My daughter is bossing her date through the prom tonight.
Stupid fcuk is 4 inches shorter than her, fat and can’t look you in the eye and talk at the same time.
Last thing I said to my daughter is to boot him out of the limo if he starts to weep or does other stupid stuff. His 300 lb mom can come pick him up.
126:
http://www.scarincihollenbeck.com/Attorneys/Brunetti.htm
Also, someone had inquired about a special needs attorney recently:
http://geronimofamilylaw.com/452.html
All disclaimers.
this should end well for pensions
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303654804576347762838825864.html
The only sector to average 8% or greater over the last 10 years like the pensions assume for growth was RE. To bad the long term growth rate for RE is only 1 – 3%
“The only sector to average 8% or greater over the last 10 years like the pensions assume for growth was RE.”
Kettle,
The girls keep you up all night?
http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au3650nyb.html
expat (135)-
As if.
My definition of a supernova:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/images/gtl%208.png
More great stuff:
“The Federal Reserve is no longer the “Lender of Last Resort.”
“The Federal Reserve is now the “Buyer of First Resort.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-economic-death-spiral-has-been-triggered
Hobo [141],
It’s a must read for all. It was evident from the beginning. The fed/treasury laid down the red carpet for the investment community. If you are front running the fed or long commodities, you are playing their game. For the other 99%, it’s a royal screw job.
It lately occurs to me that front-running the Fed and being long commodities is both great for the individual investor and an absolute 100% tell that the whole financial machinery of the planet is about to go poof.
The logical endpoint of being in a 100% long position across a basket of commodities should be that you turn every square inch of property you own into garden.
Inflation no worries unless you live in Belarus
http://www.day.kiev.ua/210119
That is a super-peachy-keen post. Thanks for really blathering on like that! Seriously, I don’t think I could have spent more effort wishing for something heavy to fall on me to erase that nonsense from my mind!