Reaching a bottom in pricing?

From Bloomberg:

Real Estate Forecast: Home Prices Limp into 2012

In the second half of 2011, U.S. home prices will continue decreasing in general, with certain markets experiencing growth. Do you live in a likely gainer?

Home sale prices in the U.S. are expected to fall a further 2.4 percent in the second half of 2011, compared to the first half, as bank-owned properties drive down prices, unemployment remains high, and consumer confidence stays weak, according to a report released Friday, July 8, by Truckee (Calif.)-based data and valuation firm Clear Capital. Of 50 U.S. markets tracked for the report, only five metro areas are forecast to produce home-price gains in the second half: Washington, New York, Orlando, Dallas, and San Francisco.

U.S. home prices fell by 3.2 percent in the first six months of 2011 compared to the previous half, with median home prices dropping to $170,000, despite a 0.9 percent increase in the second quarter, estimates Clear Capital. The peak of the market was in summer of 2006, at $240,000, indicating a median price decline of nearly 31 percent since then.

The modest increase in the second quarter may be seasonal, as homebuying typically picks up in the warmer months. It is nonetheless encouraging, says Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “That’s not bad, as we’re under heavy inventory levels, high unemployment, and consumer confidence levels are not where they need to be,” he says. “It’s not the type of increase that signifies a V-shaped recovery. It will be more muted.”

Before the housing collapse, the number of distressed sales historically made up a small percentage of the market. In the first half of 2011, however, bank-owned homes represented more than 30 percent of total sales, which is far above pre-2006 levels of less than 5 percent, according to Clear Capital. “A lot of the decline is a result of distressed sales,” says Celia Chen, senior director of the Moody’s Analytics research staff, specializing in housing economics. In 2010 there were 1.7 million distressed sales, up from an average of 450,000 per year during the pre-collapse period from 2000 to 2005, according to data from Moody’s.

The rate of decline has tapered off in recent months, following a slow winter homebuying season and a double dip earlier this year. Prices are expected to be less volatile, though “it is unlikely national home prices have reached a true and sustainable bottom,” states Clear Capital’s report. The firm expects national home prices to drift slightly downward until next year because of such factors as the financial crisis in Europe and jammed discussions regarding the debt ceiling in Washington. By May, the unemployment rate stood at a high 9.1 percent, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Under current conditions, and presuming continued job growth, Villacorta and Chen both say home prices may reach bottom in the first quarter of 2012. In its most recent economic projection, the Fed expects the jobless rate in 2012 to fall to between 7.8 percent and 8.2 percent, with gross domestic product growth anticipated at from 3.3 percent to 3.7 percent. “Those [price] upticks from April are being sustained,” says Villacorta. “Albeit slim, it’s a step in the right direction.”

This entry was posted in Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

284 Responses to Reaching a bottom in pricing?

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. Mike says:

    Home prices will hit bottom when all the unemployed are hired back by outsourcing companies paying half of what they use to make with no benefits

  3. whipped says:

    Hi ALL
    Can anyone recommend to me a good home inspector for lofty Bergen County?
    need one ASAP
    Thanks in advance

  4. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    5 cities where home prices will rise this year yet

    Despite recent price improvements nationally, only five markets in the country are expected to see home-price gains for the remainder of 2011: Washington, New York, Orlando, Dallas and San Francisco.

    That’s right, Orlando, Fla., where prices have fallen 63% from their peak.

    This is according to Clear Capital’s home data index forecast, released Friday. The company provides real-estate valuation and risk assessment information for financial institutions.

    Granted, prices are expected to be up only 0.7% through the remainder of the year in Orlando, said Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics for Clear Capital.

    “This is really a drop in the bucket compared with where this market has fallen,” he said. Yet it’s an encouraging sign of stability for a housing market that suffered the majority of its losses in 2008 and 2009, Villacorta added.

  5. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Pimco’s Simon: There Was Never a Housing Recovery

    Bearish outlooks on housing aren’t hard to find these days, but one stands out even for this market.

    Scott Simon, a managing director and head of global asset-giant Pimco’s mortgage- and asset-backed securities teams, is credited with foreseeing the housing crash and helping his firm dodge losses that plagued Wall Street.

    In a lengthy Q&A posted on Pimco’s website today, Mr. Simon discusses everything from foreclosures to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Calling his outlook “dour” would be generous—home prices could fall more and the pain could drag on for a decade or more.

    Excerpts are below. (Both the questions and answers are from Pimco.)

    Q: Could you begin by framing the current state of the housing market? Do you see a double dip market?

    A: We are seeing signs of what we have long suspected: There never was a housing recovery. In fact, I argue the market is in a fragile state that is far easier to break than to fix. If policy makers alter the government’s current approach to housing and unwittingly break the market, they may not be able to repair the damage within the foreseeable future. … We anticipate an average decline from here of about 6% to 8% in prices across the country.

    Q: Are more foreclosures expected to hit the market?

    A: We see potential for a substantial number of foreclosures over the next three years – as many as 6 million to 7 million additional foreclosures, on top of the roughly 2 million we estimate have already occurred. Foreclosures may peak in about two years, but the numbers could still be high for a few years after that and then likely taper off.

    Q: Let’s switch gears to discuss housing finance. Is the home-loan market still reliant on government support?

    A: Yes, government is essentially considered the mortgage market today, but this needs to be put in context. Government has been involved in housing for some 70 years with pro-housing subsidies of all sorts, from homebuyer tax credits to guaranteeing loans to mortgage interest tax deductions. … If we ended government support in all forms, mortgage rates could rise significantly, because home loan investors would need to be compensated for greater credit risk, and loan availability could decline. Higher rates and less mortgage availability would put downward pressure on home values, with potentially negative consequences for the market and also for the economy as a result of wealth destruction and consumer confidence declining.

  6. grim says:

    Can anyone recommend to me a good home inspector for lofty Bergen County?

    Try Sean from Guardian Home in Cresskill .

  7. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Mortgage Aid for Unemployed Expanded

    The Obama administration will require mortgage companies to extend more generous mortgage relief to help certain unemployed borrowers from losing their homes to foreclosure.

    Under policy changes announced Thursday, mortgage companies that collect payments on loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration will be required to offer 12 months of forbearance for qualified unemployed borrowers. Currently, out-of-work borrowers with these loans can receive a minimum of four months without mortgage payments.

    Firms that participate in the Obama administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program will also be pressed to offer up to 12 months of forbearance for unemployed borrowers, though that effort could be stymied by regulatory or contractual rules.

    Housing officials said the changes could help tens of thousands of borrowers. Housing Secretary Shaun Donovan said he hoped it would “push the mortgage industry” to amend their offerings.

  8. wheaties says:

    Are they #$$&#ing stupid? The whole point of a loan is that if you can’t pay it you lose it.

  9. Guess Bojangles is courting the deadbeat vote.

  10. Best case scenario is widespread Argentina-style civil unrest by the time the election rolls around.

  11. freedy says:

    no civil unrest. Americans are just to lazy . Besides,we’re in recovery .

  12. Shore Guy says:

    Note to self, should have pullrd the trigger on yhat Bay Head place as repayment is no longet expected or required.

  13. Shore Guy says:

    Can one download the revolution on NetFlix?

  14. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “widespread Argentina-style civil unrest”
    Hobo, would this event improve our soccer teams?

  15. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Or do we get the currency collapse mixed with civil unrest and still high home prices?

  16. jamil says:

    “Are they #$$&#ing stupid? The whole point of a loan is that if you can’t pay it you lose it.”

    Turns out that ecstatic african-american lady in youtube video after the Messiah campaign event was right, after all. Obama is paying her mortgage. (well, of course not Obama himself, but the responsible honest taxpayers – aka suckers – are paying for it).

    This is the truly the Era of Lowlifes, Irresponsibles and Government Parasites.

  17. Shore Guy says:

    If Newark or Watts had rioted in the middle of the Anthony trial would anyone have noticed?

  18. jamil says:

    In unrelated news, I’m leaving the wonderful area of Northern New Jersey sometime after the summer. I’ll certainly miss the unicorns.

    I’m so happy that I didn’t buy here. This was my instinct in the first place, back in 2005 (house prices were clearly insane and unsustainable and easy to see for anyone with brains), but my then unorthodox view got much needed confirmation from this blog. For that, I’m grateful. Lot of pressure from family, co-workers and relatives abroad to buy here (you know, “good investment”, “never go down”, “can deduct taxes”, “can always rent out”).

    On second thought, maybe I should have bought the biggest crapbox possible and just choose not to pay. Clearly, I was raised with the wrong values and ethics.

  19. gary says:

    We are seeing signs of what we have long suspected: There never was a housing recovery.

    General Lee: They’re forming over there, Major. I do fear they may attack.

    Pickett: Yes Sir.

    General Lee: You may reform to the rear of this ridge and set up a defensive position. You must look to your division.

    Pickett: Sir, I have no division.

  20. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Gerald Celente – the jig is up:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vP5E21qTbBI

    “when the money stops flowing down to the man on the street; blood starts flowing on the street”

  21. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    D@mn GC was on a role yesterday:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtycAaPop28

  22. Shore Guy says:

    We are on the golden road to unlimited devotion.

  23. Shore Guy says:

    Maybe it is not such a goof idea to stretch over a rail ro grab a ball at a baseball game:

    http://abcnews.go.com/m/story?id=14025751

  24. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Another thing that’s been painfully obvious in the past couple of months has been the uptick in recent highly publicized “hacker” attacks on government and corporate websites along with comments in interviews by the likes of former Prez Clinton re the need to prevent “lies” from being spread via the internet. Look for the gradual wearing down of public distrust in government control of the internet followed by legislation to restrict usage. They know that they can’t keep this ponzi scheme going long enough to prevent social unrest so what they weren’t able to control via the Patriot Act they’ll look to tighten up before TSHTF.

  25. Shore Guy says:

    Good either

  26. Kettle1^2 says:

    Hobo

    Best case scenario is widespread Argentina-style civil unrest by the time the election rolls around.It wonr b nearly as unruly here that soon. What do you think northcom is for?

  27. Kettle1^2 says:

    On a separate note:

    happy Friday all! (volume warning if at work)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQlIhraqL7o&feature=youtube_gdata_player

  28. whipped says:

    grim says:
    July 8, 2011 at 6:16 am
    Can anyone recommend to me a good home inspector for lofty Bergen County?

    Try Sean from Guardian Home in Cresskill .

    Thanks Grim

  29. Kettle1^2 says:

    Dissident HEHE

    Look into “Dark Nets”. It wouldnt be too hard for some motivated and technically savvy groups to setup “shadow internets” on a local scale and something larger with a little cooperation between groups.

  30. Essex says:

    Buh Bye Jamil.

  31. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    Have you seen the new Google+ rollout? The google facebook competitor?

    http://www.google.com/intl/en-US/+/demo/

    Checkout the “circles” and “instant upload” features. The various 3 letter agencies would pay billions for data streams like that, but they get it virtually free thanks to a little investment in google.

    Not to get too Orwellian, but it is astounding to consider the absolute degree to which you can monitor and individual who is “wired in”

  32. 3B says:

    Prices are still falling in Bergen Co, including the land of Unicorns, and will continue to. I do not think we reach bottom in the area for at least another year. A Realtor I know says another 2 years.

  33. grim says:

    Ouch

  34. freedy says:

    Bojangles on TV this AM to explain

  35. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Not Good.
    June nonfarm payrolls: +18K vs. +125K expected, +54K previous. Unemployment 9.2% vs. 9.1% expected, 9.1% prior

    http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm

  36. Mikeinwaiting says:

    3b you beat me me, now that is an ugly number.

  37. 3B says:

    #38 I am shocked!! I assumed it would ba around the 100k mark. Ok no housing recovry next year, the year after??

  38. grim says:

    On the bright side, Refis are going to tick up again.

  39. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Freedy let us all sing it together, Mr Bojangles dance…
    It was Bush’s fault. Wonder how he is going to try to bullsh*t his way around this one.

  40. freedy says:

    Barry will tell us . Just a soft patch,micro headwinds

  41. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Hey NJ things are looking up Jamil is leaving, now if he can only be replaced with a libertarian bot with revolutionary mindset. Home values can only go up from here.

    good luck Jamil hope your going to a right to work, low tax red state so you can fit in. Just remember your not the right color for the south.

  42. 3B says:

    #39 At this rate people who have 30 Year mtgs should consider refi to 15 year. Of course it would be difficult for some, given the ugly NJ property taxes.

  43. grim says:

    Soft landing is assured

  44. veets (14)-

    The soccer here is getting better. I’ve seen several very good MLS games this year. Ajax is also going to get involved in a big way at the youth level within the next year or two. I’m even encouraged by the kind of training my own kid is getting; the trainers come to practice with a plan in mind, they demand attention and intensity, and they burn your ass if you don’t execute.

    I think if things fall right, we are 10-12 years away from having top quality clubs and being able to put out a USMNT that can compete consistently at a top level.

  45. Mikeinwaiting says:

    4 points for 3b “shocked & assumed” to describe the bad numbers, could have given you 5 for “unexpected”.

  46. jamil (18)-

    Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

  47. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Grim 44 “Soft landing is assured” on Pluto.

  48. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    I thought Oman said he already “saved” the economy?

  49. The businesses of Amerika are:

    -internet p0rn
    -selling each other hamburgers
    -export of inflation
    -selling each other fraudulent financial products
    -creation of worthless media content
    -Group0n (new growth industry)

    Jig’s up, folks. Those businesses are at full employment, and everybody else can now pound salt.

  50. gary says:

    I’ve been on the phone with recruiters for the last few days almost non-stop. Everyone says things are horrible. Yes…. We…. Can.

  51. When are we going to get a Bachmann-Palin lesbi@n DVD?

  52. gary (51)-

    Headhunters in food & beverage industry don’t even return my calls or e-mails.

  53. x-everything says:

    jamil (18),
    Best of luck. Besides good Italian restaurants and baked goods, there’s nothing at all you’re going to miss

  54. Kettle1^2 says:

    Hobo

    We are still the #1 arms dealer to the world!!!!

  55. 3B says:

    #18 jamil: Good Luck!!

  56. gary says:

    Michelle Bachmann is sexy. Period.

  57. JC says:

    3b: Since it’s possible you may become a denizen of The Town that Time Forgot, you might want to attend the Big! Meeting! next Thursday at 7 PM at the Knights of Columbus hall on Pascack Road. It’s about fighting the plans to choke the intersection of Pascack Road and Washington Avenue and gut the existing strip mall even further by allowing the owner of Seasons to put up a CVS, Dunkin’ Donuts and hair salon on one corner and another company to put up a Wawa-type 24-hour convenience store/mega gas station on the other. Sounds like the local hackocracy has already had its palms greased, this meeting is to investigate if it can be stopped.

  58. 3B says:

    #56 ket: Does O still get re-elected with this dismal number??

  59. gary says:

    Hobo [53],

    When I mention permanent opportunities as opposed to per diem jobs, recruiters start laughing.

  60. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Hobo 52 “When are we going to get a Bachmann-Palin lesbi@n DVD?”
    Can I get on the waiting list, I’m sure it’ll be sold out.

  61. vodka (56)-

    The Pakis and the Chinese do it with so much more panache, though…

  62. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    From the market watch article

    Share: More
    Digg Yahoo! Buzz MySpace del.icio.us Reddit LinkedIn Fark StumbleUpon Newsvine Email Print Comment
    99 By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
    Continued from page 1
    Page 1
    Page 2
    The housing bubble was the last chance most middle-class families saw for grasping the brass ring. Working hard didn’t pay off. Investing in the stock market was a sucker’s bet. But the housing bubble allowed middle-class families to dream again and more importantly to keep spending as if they were getting a big fat raise every year.

    I don’t think we’ve quite grasped how much the bubble distorted the economy in the Oughts, and how much it continues to distort it today. We’re still paying the bills from that binge.

    During the last expansion from 2003 to 2007, according to an analysis by Fed economists, American homeowners took $2.3 trillion in equity out of their homes through cash-out refinancing and home-equity loans, and they spent about $1.3 trillion of it on cars, boats, vacations, flat-screen televisions and shoes for the kids.

    All that spending circulated through the economy, creating millions of jobs here and in China, where they make those TVs and shoes.

    During that period, the economy grew at an annual average rate of 2.7%, which is about typical for our economy. But growth would have been closer to 2% if we hadn’t had a housing bubble; if we hadn’t had the extra consumption financed by the bubble and if we hadn’t built millions of surplus homes. That’s a huge difference. At 2.7%, the economy can create a significant number of jobs. But 2% is stagnation, not even keeping pace with population growth and productivity improvements.

    Now that the bubble has burst, homeowners are putting money INTO their homes, not taking it out. The impulse to pay down the mortgage and the credit card is reducing the amount of money we’re spending on other things. Since 2007, instead of taking $2 trillion out of their house, homeowners have put $1.3 trillion into them.

    You think that might be having an impact on consumer spending?

    The amount of debt held by U.S. households is still very high, at 115% of disposable income. Even with trillions in debt being paid off or written off, very little progress has been made in deleveraging. The debt-to-disposable income ratio has slipped from 130% at the height of the bubble to 115%, but that’s still far more than the 90% recorded in 2000 or the 80% of 1989 or the 60% of 1976. No one knows how far it needs to fall before American families are comfortable with how much they owe.

    The slow growth in the economy is no mystery: Most families don’t have any extra money to spend. It will take a long time for the middle class to rebuild its wealth, especially if we don’t find some work.

    The crazy thing is that our leaders aren’t even talking about this crisis. With the upper classes prospering and global markets booming, they don’t need the U.S. middle class any more. The market is up, profits are soaring, and the corporate jet is fueled and ready for takeoff.

    And if the middle class can’t buy bread? Let them eat cake

    This is why I do not think hobo is that far off with the blood in the streets prediction. When you can become well off through hard work and sound investment the rich aren’t hated. When the system is gamed against you and the only chance you have to a prosperous life is theft, leverage, and the lottery the rich end up on the chopping block with Robespierre running wild.

  63. gary (58)-

    Dude, you need to get out of your house once or twice a week.

    Bitch don’t blink. That’s strange.

  64. Kettle1^2 says:

    3b

    o just needs to generate more market demand for our #1 industry!! a little global scale conflict should turn those numbers around pronto!

  65. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Read this earlier today.
    Economists optimistic on jobs report. Economists increased forecasts for June’s payroll gains following strong economic data. Yesterday, ADP said the private sector added 157,000 jobs last month, well above expectations and May’s 36,000. Consensus for today’s release had been 90K, but economists now forecast gains of 120-200K. A positive reading could signal that last month’s setback was due to temporary factors such as the Japan earthquake, and that the economy will pick up in the second half.

    OOPS!

  66. gary says:

    Hobo,

    With eyes like that, she doesn’t need to blink!

  67. 3B says:

    #59 JC You should be glad that time forgot your town. Better off being quiet and going about your business. I may check the meeting out just to see what it is all about, and get a feel for how things are run in the town.

    I am sure people were greased, but at least you are getting some more passive rateables in town, and in this economic environment too.!!

    Just FYI also put Emerson on our list as a possibility;train town

  68. Michelle Bachmann = Eva Peron

  69. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Dare I say “unexpected”.

  70. 3B says:

    #66 Kettle: Does Shaun Donovan want to rethink his housing reobound call for late summer 2011!!!!

  71. Shaun Donovan is smoking crack with Marion Barry.

  72. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Hobo this one is for you.
    Mall vacancies grow. The average vacancy rate at large U.S. shopping malls increased to 9.3% in Q2 from 9.1% in Q1, the highest level in 11 years, Reis said. The trend was consistent with Reis’ view that the retail sector will be the last to recover – even as retailers reported better-than-expected June sales data yesterday.

  73. chicagofinance says:

    75 posts by 9:10AM WTF?

  74. mike (75)-

    Mall vacancies don’t matter when REITs all falsify their accounting.

  75. It all works, until it doesn’t.

  76. freedy says:

    When does Xanadu open? we need it here in NNJ

  77. chicagofinance says:

    Shore Guy says:
    July 8, 2011 at 7:21 am
    Can one download the revolution on NetFlix?
    http://movies.netflix.com/Movie/Hobo_with_a_Shotgun/70167105?trkid=496624

  78. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Hobo 77 & 78 amazing isn’t it REITs up vacancies at an 11 year high.

  79. gary says:

    freedy [79],

    LMAO!!

  80. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Futures tanking on the jobs report, O bother.

  81. jamil says:

    Bloomberg: “U.S. employers added 18,000 workers in June, less than forecast and the fewest in nine months, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed, indicating a struggling labor market.”

    Bush’s fault.

  82. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    “Futures tanking on the jobs report, O bother.”

    I thought this would be bullish for stocks – more stimulus coming, right? Of course if the jobs number would have been better it would have been bullish too. Everything is bullish. Last space shuttle mission is bullish; unless it explodes on take off, but that might be bullish because more money spent on R&D…

  83. 3B says:

    #74 Can GEIOC really save you 15% or more on car insurance?

  84. jamil says:

    “good luck Jamil hope your going to a right to work, low tax red state so you can fit in. Just remember your not the right color for the south”

    I got relocation offer either to London or the small office on the West Coast. I’m taking family to London next week to look around if they like it there. I’ve been there few times in the summer, but not sure about the rain and long winter. Severence package option looks pretty nice too.

    NJ/NY should be fine. We canned everybody here, citing unspecified US business environment outlook and regulatary effects. This is at least 300 people, maybe 400 (not sure how accurate company phonebook is). I checked this is not in state WARN database, so perhaps the company counts that most people take voluntary package or relocation offer. Not sure how many relocations offered and accepted, maybe 50, certainly less than 100. So our little contribution to monthly unemployment numbers should show up later this year – no doubt unexpected then too.

  85. Essex says:

    42. What color is jamil? I always figured his belly was yellow and his neck was red.

  86. homeboken says:

    Equities are so overpriced it is absurd. People do not have jobs, employment is nearly as bad as it was in 2008 and yet S&P is up 125% since that time.

    Who is buying the goods that support the companies in the S&P? It is such a sham, when the next “correction” hits, it will be a brutal wipeout of anyone long equity.

  87. 3B says:

    #87 jamil: London is a dump, some nice areas, but over all a dump, the weather is miserable, and the food is horrible. And if you want to see even dumpier go to Liverpool and Birmingham. Oh and they all have bad teeth.

    London,nice place to visit, but would not want to live there.

  88. Jamil deserves no less than to go to London, the world capital of financial entropy and worthless layabouts propped up by the most wasteful soci@list programs ever devised.

  89. Jamil should go over really well in the East End council flats.

  90. 3b (90)-

    Anyplace where Gordon Ramsay can be considered a world class chef is a place where Wawa sausage biscuits would be considered haute cuisine.

  91. Spotted dick, anyone?

  92. Kettle1^2 says:

    Boken 89

    You think flesh and blood humans are trading up equities??????? What do you think the warehouses full of blade servers are for?

  93. Kettle1^2 says:

    jamil’s relocation choices seem to be damned if you do and damned if you dont.

  94. homeboken says:

    What, pray tell, is our President going to tell us at 10:30? If I have to listen to him spin and massage the numbers, I am going to puke.

    Will we ever get leadership that isn’t afraid to confront the facts, however unpopular they may be?

  95. 3B says:

    #93 hobo: Some of the worst, if not the worst food I have ever eaten has been in London, even in the so called better restaurants. You are seriously bettr off eating in Mc Donald’s. Some of the worst deprivation and decay I have seen has been in Liverpool and Birmingham. The whole Northwest of England is like a wast land, inhabited by zombies. England’s glory days are long gone.

    Of course still great pints and lots of football (soccer),a nd fights.

  96. Shore Guy says:

    How can anyone who is paying attention find this at all surprising?

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/08/us-usa-economy-idUSTRE7662I420110708

    “Jobs barely rise, dousing hopes of revival”

    Add to this picture the quality of the jobs the economy is creating and things are looking pretty dismal.

  97. 3B says:

    #99 All is well in the land of Unicorns; after you lace your coffee with angel dust.

  98. Shore Guy says:

    “Spotted dick, anyone?”

    A college roomate caught it but a course of antibiotics had him cured in no time.

  99. Shore Guy says:

    “Mall vacancies grow. ”

    Back in the day, I knew that Kodak was done for when we went from buying multiple rolls of film each week to none — with the purchase of a digital camera. Likewise, a few years ago, a weekly trip to the mall was not unusual. Now? I have been to one a coupler of times this year but have never gone past the one department in the one store that I knew had what I wanted.

    Give me a decent freestanding specialty store over the homoginized mall store with clueless clerks anyday.

  100. Shore Guy says:

    Shopping malls now strike me as the 1950s plasitic turquoise furniture that became popular for a number of years until people realized that it was bad-looking garbage.

  101. gary says:

    “Spotted dick, anyone?”

    I hear the unicorns in River Edge suffer from this affliction.

  102. 3B says:

    #04 That is because of some mating with geese.

  103. Shore Guy says:

    Channelling John:

    I thought their lick cured it.

  104. vodka (96)-

    The only place he will be welcomed is Planet of the Arseholes.

  105. Al Mossberg says:

    65,

    Hobo,

    You should invite Gary over and start a bonfire in the backyard. You never know it could get out of control and eliminate all of your problems.

  106. Al, I’m an Amerikan. If I start a bonfire, chances are 100% it will spread to somewhere else.

  107. Ultimately, my problems wouldn’t be solved by that bonfire unless I stepped into the middle of it.

  108. Al Mossberg says:

    87.

    I was in London a few years ago. Here were my impressions.

    1. The “Tube” was very easy to use except for the militant Paki’s that are everywhere. Im sure it is worse now.
    2. Insanely overpriced. You think Abe Lincoln had a crap shack? Wait until you see the homes there. Youll be begging for a POS cape.
    3. Hot Polish girls do the minimum wage jobs over there. A pleasant surprise vs the pot bellied pigs we have over here.
    4. Food is terrible and so is the weather but the architecture is nice.

    In conclusion. I would rather stab my eyes out than move to London proper. Maybe a place in the countrside would be better.

  109. NJGator says:

    Doom – A little something to drink to today. Replace the asterisk in the below link with an i.

    http://jezebel.com/5818628/the-best-of-nancy-graces-batsh*t-casey-anthony-coverage

  110. Shore Guy says:

    Some doom to consider:

    In the event that our economy’s pullback causes economic pain in China, and our cuts in defense, combined with war fatigue after fighting one war where we did not need to and another longer than we should have, leaves us with few conventional options with which to counter the move, I would not be surprised to see the following:

    China and Pakistan move on India, with Pakistan grabbing the Northwest asd far as a line running more or less from Surat to Delhi and then north to the eastern end of Jammu and Kashmir. China would move into Vietnam to secure the South China Sea oil, push south and west to eliminate our ability to establish bases in Thailand, etc, dispose of Burma, and grab the eastern part of India above the line running from Surat to Orissa.

    This will provide vast amounts of resources, allow China to project power very effectively to the oil fields of Central Asia and the Middle East as well as casting a large shadow over Africa. In such a changed world, a few aircraft carrier battle groups would not matter. Heck, if we do not have our budget in balance and they dump treasuries, we may not be able to afford too many of these anyway.

    It is very much time to get friendly with the Russians. The time may well be upon us when we will need each other very badly.

  111. Shore Guy says:

    Oh, have a nice day.

  112. Shore Guy says:

    Of course, in such a situation, one may rest assurred that a few dozen nukes will fly.

  113. Al Mossberg says:

    Shore,

    US cant fight China conventionally but I have no doubt we can wipe them out by playing dirty. Target their food supply and its over.

  114. Shore Guy says:

    Going south and west, combined with population losses due to Indian missiles, will address their food issue.

  115. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    My niece is a starter for Team USA in soccer. I think training is over rated. Her brothers and parents stink at sports. Most likely her success is because she is related to me and I have natural god given abilities, even in sports I have never played.

    Hobo With a Shotgun says:
    July 8, 2011 at 8:42 am

    veets (14)-

    The soccer here is getting better. I’ve seen several very good MLS games this year. Ajax is also going to get involved in a big way at the youth level within the next year or two. I’m even encouraged by the kind of training my own kid is getting; the trainers come to practice with a plan in mind, they demand attention and intensity, and they burn your ass if you don’t execute.

    I think if things fall right, we are 10-12 years away from having top quality clubs and being able to put out a USMNT that can compete consistently at a top level.

  116. Shore Guy says:

    We can’t fight them conventionally and, if they move south and west, we will not fight with special weapons. They will ignore Australia, and we will be glad they do, so we are not obliged to provide a nuclear umbrella.

    Who wants to be the president who says, yes we lost Seattle, LA, etc., but we did so to protect Viet Nam, Cambodia, Burma, and Thailand?

  117. Al Mossberg says:

    Gold very strong here.

    Gold $1,544.00 $1,545.00 $13.40
    Silver $36.48 $36.53 $0.07

    We have bounced off support 6 times now. “COT gold report showed commercials, banks, reduced net shorts 42,492 contracts, or by 16.9% to 208,755 from 251,247. This was the largest weekly reduction in three years, or since the 2008 credit crisis.”

    The Armstrong correction is still in the cards though as we enter the metal bullish season.

  118. NJGator says:

    Hobo 93 – Gordon’s been hanging around Montclair this week. They’re filming Kitchen Nightmares at Leone’s on Park Street.

    “I was there last night, it was nuts! The waitstaff looked exhausted and scared, they told us Gordon was kicking ass back in the kitchen. Then Gordon went out front with the owner’s son and the kitchen staff and chewed them out, and afterwards the son announced that Gordon had declared the food subpar and ordered the restaurant shut down immediately. We were some of the last people reamining in the restaurant – Gordon came out and spoke to us at our table, he told us that if we had seen what he had seen back in the kitchen, we would not still be eating our pizza. He then called all staff into the corner for his “talk” – as we walked out we heard him telling everyone what an embarassment dinner service was. “

  119. Shore Guy says:

    I suspect that the Chinese leadership has their own version of Manifest Destiny.

  120. Juice Box says:

    Jamil London? Even the Brits I know don’t want to live there, the Tubes charge a ridiculous 4 pounds for single ride. Everything is way over priced, Cab ride for one mile will cost 10 pounds as well. Enjoy the taxes as well, I believe if you make over 37k pounds they hit you with 40% rates and 50% above 150k pounds.

  121. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Shore 113 “It is very much time to get friendly with the Russians. The time may well be upon us when we will need each other very badly.” I have always maintained that Russians & ourselves are natural allies against the Chinese. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

  122. Shore Guy says:

    “if you make over 37k pounds they hit you with 40% rates and 50% above 150k pounds.”

    But, they throw in world-famous dental care.

  123. Shore Guy says:

    Mike,

    I agree that we are natural allies. When one gets past the Cold War, we have many things in common. We are federations of very, very different regions/states. We span continents, and both countries have always had imperial asperations. Etc.

  124. NJGator says:

    Just saw something on the new last night that said it costs $1,100/month just for a parking space in London. I think that’s more that my sister-in-law pays for her entire monthly PTI on her McMansion in Suburban Cincinnati.

  125. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Shore we better get over that yesterday & should have. Now if the Russians would just stop trying to f**k with us & come to the same conclusion we have a shot. Without each other China will beat us in detail.

  126. 3B says:

    #23 All True.

  127. sas3 says:

    Mike #2

    Home prices will hit bottom when all the unemployed are hired back by outsourcing companies paying half of what they use to make with no benefits

    Half? You are being too optimistic. The “people that create jobs [TM]” are even complaining about the minimum wage.

    At this point, it is more or less certain that things are going to be worse for everyone except a select few. It will be third world conditions sooner or later. The rules of the game are simple: making sure one ends up in the “select few” group. Life is actually very luxurious for the made man in such conditions.

  128. Shore Guy says:

    Pretty cold-blooded comments after the guy fell and died:

    http://www.mercurynews.com/athletics/ci_18439164?nclick_check=1

  129. 3B says:

    #27 I would not doubt it. Everything there is so over priced, and over rated. It is worth a visit to do the tourist thing, but that is about it. As far as their famous tube system, yes it is worth checking out, but it is falling apart. And there are whole areas in London, that are no go areas, day or night.

  130. freedy says:

    Bo speaking now, wheres the top hat and cane

  131. Anon E. Moose says:

    Hobo [74];

    Shaun Donovan is smoking crack with Marion Barry.

    B!tch Set Me Up.

  132. Al Mossberg says:

    Im hanging on the Kenyan’s every word.

  133. Juice Box says:

    re #127 – That is beacuse you cannot drive into London (commute) during the work day without paying a 10 pounds congestion charge and there is no parking on the streets practically everywhere. In busy areas you may even need to buy a permit to park outside your own house. Most Brits take the Bus in London or the tubes for the commute.

  134. freedy says:

    Bo speaks and says nothing

  135. freedy says:

    his kool is still lit in the ashtray

  136. Shore Guy says:

    Bo know telePrompter. I’d rather watch a shuttle launch than the Empty Suit in Chief.

  137. Shore Guy says:

    Gantry swinging back.

  138. Shore Guy says:

    6 minutes anc counting. It is hard to believe the the Empty Suit in Chief has all but killed manned spaceflight in this country.

  139. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore 113

    Its not liek china has a debt problem just like everyone else….

    Based on the figure released by the National Audit Office (NAO) at the end of June, local governments have accumulated debts totalling 10.7 trillion renminbi (RMB) or $1.65 trillion – about 27 percent of China’s GDP in 2010. Because the NAO’s figure was based on a sampling of 6,500 local government-backed financial vehicles (out of more than 10,000 such vehicles nationwide), the actual magnitude of local government indebtedness is much greater. The People’s Bank of China, the central bank, recently estimated that local government debt totalled 14 trillion RMB (most of which was owed to banks), almost 30 percent higher than the NAO figure.

    Several interesting questions are raised by the revelation of local government debt in China. First and foremost, it has shown that public finance in China is in much worse shape than previously thought. On paper, China’s debt to GDP ratio is under 20 percent, making Beijing a paragon of fiscal virtue compared with profligate Western governments. However, if we factor in various government obligations that are typically counted as public debt, the picture doesn’t look pretty for China. Once local government debts, costs of re-capitalizing state-owned banks, bonds issued by state-owned banks, and railway bonds are included, China’s total debt amounts to 70 to 80 percent of GDP, roughly the level of public debt in the United States and the United Kingdom. Since most of China’s debt has been borrowed in the last decade, China is on an unsustainable trajectory at the current rate of debt accumulation, particularly when economic growth slows down, as it’s expected to do in the coming decade.

    http://the-diplomat.com/2011/07/05/china%E2%80%99s-ticking-debt-bomb/

  140. Shore Guy says:

    “Since most of China’s debt has been borrowed in the last decade, China is on an unsustainable trajectory at the current rate of debt accumulation, particularly when economic growth slows down, as it’s expected to do in the coming decade.”

    A war might be what the Goost of Mao ordered.

  141. Shore Guy says:

    One minute to launch. I love watching these things.

  142. Shore Guy says:

    Ghost, too

  143. Kettle1^2 says:

    SHore 113

    That is a heck of a juicy wargame.

    .It is very much time to get friendly with the Russians. The time may well be upon us when we will need each other very badly.
    The US and Russians combined, even in our tattered economic state could inflict some very serious pain on china. Between the 2 of us, we have a very impressive resume of warmaking.
    let Russia direct Europe and together they take the northern front, while the US, Australia and the SE Asian nations being overrun take the southern front. The US and Europe would need to become the center of war effort production in order to provide distance from Chinese strikes.

    It could get even more interesting if China can convince a few south/central American nations to aid them either covertly or openly. At the same time the ME is more likely to take china’s side with Iran being a wild card, as who knows if they would follow Russia into a Russo-Anglo pact against china.

    If china gets cut off from Africa for any period of time and aerial campaigns prevent them from accessing SE Asian food, then the Chinese population could begin to starve in very short order.

  144. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (122) (prior thread) al,

    Gave some thought to a coop for gas, patterned after some in Minn. Set it up in an old station. But margin for gas is uber small, and you have all the headaches of station ownership.

    Better idea is to have a few 55 gal drums at the nompound with a barrel hand pump. Each member group. would have their barrel in a separate locker in the hazmat bunker and responsible for its upkeep. Properly stabilized and cycled, it will provide a ready supply for TSHTF.

  145. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore,

    a global conflict with china would be best won by starving them as opposed to shooting them. if you strategically deny their primary food and energy imports as a top priority then the Chinese population will quickly become its own worst enemy as starvation and unrest from a very nasty negative feed back loop.

    Follow a policy of containment & starvation while maintaining a strong defensive position. After you break their physical and moral back with that you start the hard military press to undue the territorial gains.

  146. Shore Guy says:

    Ket,

    The body bombs, the Horn of Africa, and some others not for this forum, are all calls I made to military and civ policymakers in DC at various times well before events proved the calls correct. If they grabbed the land I suggested they might, it would be all but impossible to reverse it. They have been cut off from the world before and could not care less if they are cut off again, as long as they have the resources they need to thrive internally and prevent aggression from external powers.

  147. Kettle1^2 says:

    Nom 150

    if your going that far with it you should probably consider shifting as many of the groups vehicles as possible to diesel. As a nice fallback,in a SHTF situation you can run a diesel engine off straight veggie oil if need be with minor modifications.

  148. Shore Guy says:

    India lives in a very tough neighborhood.

  149. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    china may try to dump some of our debt on the open market to fund some of their obligations. The question is who is left to buy it since they are the lender of last resort, martians? New accronym F’MAD (finacial mutual assured destruction) That old saying about borrowing and who owns the bank come to mind.

  150. Shore Guy says:

    The Fed?

  151. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    They have been cut off from the world before and could not care less if they are cut off again, as long as they have the resources they need to thrive internally and prevent aggression from external powers.

    if you are referring to china, they no long have a choice of isolation without a very drastic drop in population. They have exhausted their primary and fossil aquifers in their breadbasket regions and their internal food production is not enough sustain the population. Their local environment is so heavily degraded and damaged that the existing food production regions are seeing yields continue to drop.

    it wouldn’t be pretty, but in a Total War scenario China is in a weaker position then an Anglo-Russo block.

  152. Shore Guy says:

    They can pull a bunch of gold from the vault in Manhattan in order to buy worthless Treasury chits from China.

  153. Shore Guy says:

    “They have exhausted their primary and fossil aquifers in their breadbasket regions”

    South and West, combined with the losss of a 100,000,000 or 200,000,000 or so people in a war (Heck, Russia lost a far greater percentage of population in WWII), would address those issues.

  154. Shore Guy says:

    Ket,

    One needs to not think like a Westerner when looking at the pluses and minuses of particular actions.

  155. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Ket, for that reason alone China has to go global and start either economic colonies or land wars of conquest. Not enough resources and the weight of their population will collapse upon itself like a locust swarm that has exhausted all attainable resources

  156. Shore Guy says:

    Pain,

    Note Japan circa 1940, during the days of the embargo.

  157. Anon E. Moose says:

    Shore [144];

    Its not so much the Shuttle going away as the complete retreat from manned space flight, with no corresponding technological initatives. The WAY that the program is ending is a stunning example of American decline. Bread & Circuses, anyone?

  158. Shore Guy says:

    “Its not so much the Shuttle going away as the complete retreat from manned space flight, with no corresponding technological initatives.”

    Agreed. It makes me sick to my stomach. Hundreds of billions of dollars to bail out banks and not a fraction of that for cutting-edge technological innovation. It is pathetic. At least we have hope.

  159. Shore Guy says:

    Ket,

    Did you see that France has decided to buy a half dozen SSNs?

  160. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore,

    That is why you dont carpet bomb the invasion force, but instead carpet bomb food production and associated infrastructure. Starve the beast.

    To be bluntly realistic they only way to win a global conflict with china is to either nuke them or starve them to death. Nukes wont win anything, even if it would almost be guaranteed a few get tossed about.

    Dont forget that without NPK modern agriculture would only produce a minuscule fraction of the outputs we currently see. The primary targets should be either the control of destruction of the primary NPK sources/production facilities.

    Since NPK is critically dependent on oil and natural gas, you will affect 2 avenues of attack at one time. You must cut off external hydrocarbon supplies in order to completely cut off external NPK.

  161. Shore Guy says:

    From the AP:

    “WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama says the uncertainty over whether lawmakers will raise the nation’s debt limit is keeping businesses from hiring.”

    Mr. Empty Suit, I suspect they are more concerned with customers being able to pay them than they are the budget negotiations. If there were huge demand from credit-worthy customers, I strongly doubt that most business owners would cite the federal debt ceiling as a factor in hire/layoff decisions. Please, at least open a lemonade stand before you start diagnosing the actions of business owners.

  162. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore,

    Look at china as a heat engine. energy in — work out. Cut off the energy inputs and the engine falters in short order. You let them burn their energy overrunning SE asia while you focus on starving them at all levels.

  163. Kettle1^2 says:

    SHore,

    frances SSN’s… yep.

    Three gorges makes a nice fat juicy target for a barrage of long range cruise missiles. And that would fit right in with the starvation strategy, removing electric generation, causing massive downstream damage and removing upstream irrigation.

  164. Shore Guy says:

    Hence China’s insistance that it owns the mineral rights in the South China Sea. Also, don’t forget that if they have Thailand, etc, they would essentially control the Malaysian and Indonesian oil fields. Controlling northern India and having cozy relations with Pakistan, gives it a land rout from Iran, which would be happy to never sell another drop of oil to the West, and there is all that Caspian oil that is set to head east.

  165. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Shore, il duce is an idiot socialist what else is he going to say. Second the death of the space program as the death knell for innovation in this country. More stuff you use everyday has come from solving problems for manned space flight. We are a nation of idiots

  166. Shore Guy says:

    “Three gorges makes a nice fat juicy target ”

    We would be too worried about being labled war criminals, I suspect.

    Tell me, if China suddenly rushed into Burma (yea i know but old habits die hard), do you think anyone would rush to save the junta?

  167. Shore Guy says:

    If thery then annexed Laos, who would say or do anything?

  168. gator (121)-

    I thought all the restaurants in Montklair were 3*** and all the children spoke Mandarin.

  169. An overpriced plate of flour swimming in red lead for $19 is the same in Montklair as it is in Garwood.

  170. 3B says:

    #67 Unbelieveable that he actually said that!!! Or maybe not. Talk about grasping at straws!!!

  171. Shore Guy says:

    Then, how long before:

    To the good people of Cambodia, the People of the Peoples’ Republic of China cordially invite you to join our peace-loving nation. Please ignore all of the tanks massed in muang khong. We await your gracious acceptance of this last, best, and final offer of friendship.

  172. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore 170

    Deal with the devil; Support iran in deposing the Saudi royal family and in exchange for their support or at a minimum their abstinence from the conflict. Support the local ME uprisings. Have Russia be the face of politics in the ME instead of the US as they have a slightly less antagonistic history.

    On top of that india could inflict some heavy damage on the SE Asian oil infrastructure and US subs would make tankers a perilous proposition. Try to have the local SE Asian nations go all Saddam on their oil infrastructure if they are going to be overrun. of course we could have a few SF teams help with that. The US explored ways to critically damage oil wells (the actual geology) in short order around the time of the gulf war. put it to use.

  173. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore,

    It comes down to total war. if you want to starve the beast that you cannot outgun then there are few choices left that dont put you in immediate peril or force you to accept the outcome desired by the beast.

    PS does all this chitchat get he taken off any watch lists or perhaps my threat level downgraded?

  174. Kettle1^2 says:

    Burma would be a key piece of territory given their natural resources

  175. Kettle1^2 says:

    Its like the ultimate game of RISK.

  176. It’s supposed to be a big surprise when we finally declare war.

    If you’re somebody who isn’t going to be surprised, you’re probably on a watchlist.

  177. My dad used to use Burma Shave.

  178. Shore Guy says:

    Ket,

    Believe me, based on my official interactions in DC and access I have had to certain things, I work under the assumption that anything I do online might be observed by an official or two. One gets used to the thought.

  179. jamil says:

    “Did you see that France has decided to buy a half dozen SSNs?”

    Mexicans buy them $15 a piece. Widely available.

  180. freedy says:

    How many Kools a day is Bojangles smoking ?

  181. Shore Guy says:

    Kettle,

    Burma is key both for resources and as a pivot point.

  182. Shore Guy says:

    One can see a situation where China, only firing shots in Burma and Laos, could , essentially, seize control of SE Asia. If Pakistan then got into a shooting war with India, China could even play the “peacekeeper” role and grab vast swaths of India, Soviet style, in the interest of “preserving peace.”

  183. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    I don’t buy it. My parents, my in-laws, my middle class blue collar neighbors but a modest three bedroom fixer upper cape, ranch or split on a small plot fix it up themselves over a decade or so and then stay in the house till they die.

    It is the broke people doing zero down and over reaching and upper middle class who over reached and leveraged themselves who took the big hit in the housing collapse.

    My neighbor bought his starter house as a newlywed for 40K. In spring of 2005 it was worth 575k and now it is worth maybe 425K. Did he lose 150K in networth since 2005? Maybe imaginary networth as he is being carried out of house in a wooden box. Real middle class people don’t heloc, put zero down, take home equities loans, they quietly pay off their loans have a mortgage burning party and live there till the hearse comes.

    Confused In NJ says:
    July 8, 2011 at 11:07 am

    How The Bubble Destroyed The Middle Class:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/113086/bubble-destroyed-middle-class-marketwatch?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

  184. Mikeinwaiting says:

    No surprise here been calling it for years, guess I make the list.

  185. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Freedy 187 bet he is chain smoking after that number.

  186. 3B says:

    #90 Real middle class people don’t heloc, put zero down, take home equities loans, they quietly pay off their loans have a mortgage burning party and live there till the hearse comes.

    That used to be the case, but not any more. I know lots of the same people you described. And all have at least one HELOC, and a heft lease or car payment.

    I am the one that is driving around in late model paid for cars. they are or for more than a few were driving Lexus’s and BMW’s, with big cr or lease payments, and going to the DR for winter vacations.

    And they believed that prices only go up. Many also have or had lawn service and house cleaners. The middle/upper middle class people became the biggest wannabes during the bubble.

  187. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Check out the link nice illustrations & graphs.

    Some Graphs for Those Terrible June Jobs Numbers
    “The unemployed continue to be more likely to drop out of the labor force than find a job. As we’ve mentioned before, the idea that people are more likely to drop out of the labor force than find a job is a brand new phenomenon, one that doesn’t exist in the data going back to when data was first collected in the 1960s.”

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/278577-some-graphs-for-those-terrible-june-jobs-numbers

  188. 3B says:

    #89 Shore With China having it’s owne internal problems with the Tibetans and Uighurs, I do not see them anxious to add a couple hundred million hostile Indians to their ethnic mix.

  189. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Franc going to the gold standard would pretty much begin the hate f*ck of fiat money

    Speaking of bad pron whoever suggeted the lez scenes of Bachmann and Palin i was thinking more Requiem for a Dream a$$ to a$$

  190. Hard to beat Human Centipede.

  191. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    they are not middle class. middle class is a state of mind. I am middle class. My block is so middle class in that I own the newest car on the block and it is a 2006. My neighbors have not bought cars since I moved in 11 years ago. Quite frankly I am sick of looking at the 1986 dented Ford Taurus, junky Saturn, God awful Pontiac min-van and Sebring. The least they could do is when they put junk yard doors and fenders on is paint them to match car and when using Duct tape to hold up bumper spend the extra buck to get a matching color. My other neighbor bought my 1996 Camry back in 2008 and still refers to it as his “new” car. He washes and waxes it like it is a show car. Drives that one to church on Sunday as his other two are 1980s beasts with well over 200K miles. I doubt most on my block would even know how to fill out a loan application. Heck one did not even know on-line banking existed. I doubt any of them know they lost money on the house, none have newspaper delivery and doubt most know much about the internet. We are middle class baby!!! Starbucks, Apple, Google, Facebook, HA HA, they are still driving Pontiacs, Oldsmobiles, Saturns in my town and I bet they don’t even know they went belly up. When you buy a car only ever 20-25 years or so you don’t keep up.

    3B says:
    July 8, 2011 at 12:46 pm

    #90 Real middle class people don’t heloc, put zero down, take home equities loans, they quietly pay off their loans have a mortgage burning party and live there till the hearse comes.

    That used to be the case, but not any more. I know lots of the same people you described. And all have at least one HELOC, and a heft lease or car payment.

    I am the one that is driving around in late model paid for cars. they are or for more than a few were driving Lexus’s and BMW’s, with big cr or lease payments, and going to the DR for winter vacations.

    And they believed that prices only go up. Many also have or had lawn service and house cleaners. The middle/upper middle class people became the biggest wannabes during the bubble.

  192. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    BTW I hope they get rid of the fiat. I had one in college and it always broke down.

  193. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore 189

    Nothing there that a few well placed false flag events against both nations couldnt fix.

  194. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    …and any 3 letter agency cronies reading this, i would just like to point out that i am squarely supporting the anglo bloc in this future conflict and only try to offer helpful suggestion to further an anglo victory.

  195. More convinced than ever that jj is Don Draper.

  196. Anon E. Moose says:

    Ket [202];

    On the other hand, I, for one, welcome our new insect overloards.

  197. make money says:

    Juice,

    It will take years until something liek thsi is implemented. However, the fact that the discussions are beginning means Shiny has is only going north. To the moon, Alice.
    It not late to own physical.

  198. Libtard in the City says:

    JJ is the Jeopardy computer Watson.

  199. NJGator says:

    Anyone in the market for a “luxury” condo?

    Lawsuit Filed Against Builders of the Siena

    When the builders of the Siena announced their new condominium development in 2006, they described it as an “enclave of luxury in an urban village setting.” Then last November, news broke that the luxury condos were plagued with mold.

    On June 8, the Siena Condominium Association filed suit against the parties responsible for the development, design, construction and sale of the Siena.

    This action was brought against multiple parties including the Pinnacle Companies, Kohl Partners, and Herod development companies for extensive construction defects and “resulting deteriorating conditions.” Other responsible parties may be added. The suit does not ask for a fixed monetary amount but requests “compensatory damages, interest, reasonable attorney’s fee and costs, and for such other, further, and different relief as the Court may deem just and proper.” The suit also cites violations of the New Jersey Consumer Fraud Act, as well as common law fraud, negligence, and breach of contract and warranty, as its basis.

    The suit includes 14 counts against the defendants. Included in counts are breach of warranties, misrepresentation in advertising the Siena, breach of contract for failing to conform to building codes, and negligence. The suit also charges that Kohl Partners was a general contractor on the project with Herod and their partner as well, creating a conflict of interest. It also singles out Kohl Partners President Alan Litt, Kohl Construction Group CEO Jonathan Litt, and Pinnacle Companies CEO Brian Stolar, three of the individual defendants, who as controlling members of the Siena’s board of directors did not see to any necessary repairs before the Siena Condominium Association (SCA) assumed control of the building in March 2009.

    The details of this suit were provided to Baristanet by Robert Epstein of the law firm Greenberg Traurig in Florham Park, who is representing the SCA. The suit says that construction defects require immediate attention and repair, and that the SCA cannot afford to pay for the necessary reconstruction. The suit recognizes every resident as a member of the SCA.

    http://www.baristanet.com/2011/07/lawsuit-filed-against-builders-of-the-siena/

  200. NJGator says:

    More from the article above. And these same developers have been awarded the next big project in town – the redevelopment of the DCH property on Bloomfield Ave.

    When the developers completed the Siena in November 2007, after brisk sales of most of its 101 units (eight remain unsold), the building looked like a major asset in the redevelopment of Montclair, where it replaced the old Hahne’s department store. Almost as soon as residents began moving in, in late 2007 and early 2008, water leakage began appearing in the building and its subterranean parking garage. A preliminary engineering report, called the “Falcon Report,” was commissioned by the SCA when it took over responsibility for the Siena in March 2009. Issued in February 2010, the Falcon Report revealed a laundry list of problems: improperly installed windows, improperly installed fire protection, improperly installed siding, and improperly constructed garage walls.

    Two engineering reports, Desman I and Desman II, provided by the defendants themselves, also detail faults in construction. Desman I cites Siena’s roof (prone to “water ponding” in rainstorms, and uneven in various areas affecting drainage), and sealant deterioration in the windows and walls. Desman II, focusing on the parking structures, finds among other things, deteriorating sealant and concrete and the cracking of concrete. “If this problem is not addressed,” the report says, “the continued seepage of salt laden moisture can cause the corrosion of the structural elements of the garage.”

    All three reports are preliminary. Condo owners say repairs have not been made despite repeated promises

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  202. All Hype says:

    NJGator (207):

    I know Raniya Kassem quite well. She is such a great person. She is getting royally screwed.

  203. 3B says:

    #00 Mike: he states that he sees no danger that we are going to go into a second recession, but in the same article states that he does not know when the recovery will come.

    Well if we have not recovered yet, are we not in fact in another recession, or more accurately,are we not in fact still in the first recession that is only getting worse?? Just saying.

  204. NJGator says:

    All Hype 211 – We have friends in that building too. They’re problems are not as bad as your friends, but they can’t wait to get the hell out of town. They are miserable there and they have come to really dislike Montclair. It’s such a shame. They were so excited to live here.

  205. A.West says:

    3b,
    I think we talked about this at SL’s party. It wasn’t until about 2004/2005 that I discovered that a big portion of the US “middle class” had blown up their finances with debt. Previously I assumed it was just a fringe thing to be living with tens of thousands of revolving debt, minimal cash, and as much mortgage debt as financial institutions would grant you. Between HELOC’s and expanding size refis, there were plenty of folks who financed themselves into the housing crisis even without buying a new house – they basically kept re-buying their existing house at higher prices.

    I suspect that a lot of people my age never grew up financially, and kept living paycheck to paycheck with credit replacing savings, like I did my first few years after school.

  206. Shore Guy says:

    Are you the type of airline passenger who, when your hand luggage goes through security, tries to peer all the way into the machine, just to check that nothing will be tampered with?

    You may have good reason to do so, if a story from Florida holds up in court.

    According to WSVN-TV, a Transportation Security Administration worker allegedly had a systematic scheme for removing passengers’ electronics and selling them on Craigslist.

    Read more: http://news.cnet.com/8301-17852_3-20077881-71/police-tsa-worker-put-stolen-ipad-in-his-pants/#ixzz1RXSUx7vN

  207. Nicholas says:

    I have family in the construction industry who confirm that mindset from 2004-2006. Lots of equity was stripped from housing to pay for things that shouldn’t have been bought.

    I have a brother that likes to quote “A good friend came to me offering to go into buisness with him and said ‘suck every ounce of equity out of your current house and buy as many houses as you can’ and that he though it over and declined”. That friend owned 4 houses when the bubble crashed, they took all his investment properties and now they are taking his families home from him to cover debts. His home was paid off free and clear, given to him by his mother.

    It is hard to remember the crazy mentality that people were going through during the housing bubble. Master Electrician was making 80-120$ an hour during the housing boom, now IF YOU CAN FIND WORK you might only make 40$ an hour. This has a huge effect on your view of “middle class”.

    We can all sit here and laugh at and bemoan people for thier choices but there definitely was a mindset that underplayed risk. If every cast of the line brings in a fish then you begin to think of yourself as master angler when in reality you were just a clumsy man with a stick and a string.

  208. scribe says:

    Jamil,

    If you’re going to London, be sure to buy the duty-free cigs on the plane.

    Some of my neighbors have made a couple of hundred re-selling duty-frees in British pubs, where a pack from the machines is about 14 pounds.

  209. Nicholas says:

    Yeah Jamil be sure to help spread cancer sticks to those around you so that you can contribute to someone getting cancer and make a few dollars on the side. I’m sure that will help you feel better and ensure you a way into a sweet afterlife. I’m almost sure that karma won’t come around to bite you and when you find someone dealing death to your kids you won’t be so surprised.

    /sarcasm off

    Everything you do has a consequence. Scribe in general giving someone else cancer in exchange for a bit of money in your pocket isn’t the best idea I have heard today.

  210. Kettle1^2 says:

    Nicholas 216

    On top of that the government, which most people look to for guidance, was telling people to BUY BUY BUY. The head of the FED was telling everyone there was no bubble!

  211. Mikeinwaiting says:

    3b 212 if you are referring to my 194, I do not agree with the guy (Keynesian for sure) on everything but graphs the were telling.

  212. JC says:

    3b #193: Some of us have lawn service because we got tired of nagging our husbands all weekend long to cut the grass and then having them get mad at us when we went ahead and did it ourselves at 5 PM on Sunday.

  213. 3B says:

    #214 Agreed. I do not know what kind of twiligth zone JJ lives in.

  214. 3B says:

    #21 I understand. I was just making a general comment. That services that were once the domain of the truly wealthy, have become the norm for so many of the middle class. There are old timers on my block who have lawn service. But there are many more 40 somethings who have it as well, and believe me some of these guys could well use the exercise.

  215. 3B says:

    #20 Mikeinwaiting: Sorry I was refering to Mike #09 regarding Buffet, and a jobs recovery.

  216. JC says:

    3b #223: That is true. When I was a kid, my parents had a house at a certain level. The next level up had a concrete patio in the back. The level up from that had a patio and a pool. and so on. People at my parents’ level didn’t borrow money to put in a patio and a pool…but they had hopes that at some point my father would get a promotion and then they could move to that $30K house with the patio, pool, and a second FULL bath instead of a bath and a half.

    Now people have no hope of that upward mobility, so they grab it when they can.

  217. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    Yes but now in New York couples who are two men have no excuse.

    When I was 40 I worked like 70 hours a week and mowed my lawn. AHHH, the beer, getting a tan, no screaming kids it was heaven, finally my wife pulled the plug on my free ride and got lawn service and back I went inside with the screaming kids and housework. Now I have mexicans pooping and peeing all over, denting my siding, chiping my pavers, loud blowers, noisy weekwackers. I hate those guys.

    If I had a wife like you we could hire a sitter, do some gardnering, drink some beers, get a tan and take a dip in the pool, screw those mexicans!!!

    JC says:
    July 8, 2011 at 3:10 pm

    3b #193: Some of us have lawn service because we got tired of nagging our husbands all weekend long to cut the grass and then having them get mad at us when we went ahead and did it ourselves at 5 PM on Sunday.

  218. Juice Box says:

    re #223 – 3B – I refer to this map for the advent of the cheap labor for lawn service, if you choose Mexican and scale it back to 1980’s you will see the break point. Only 2,000 Mexicans in Bergen County in the year 2000. I can’t wait until it is updated with 2010 Census Data.

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/03/10/us/20090310-immigration-explorer.html?hp

  219. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    All my friends ask me when I”m getting a riding mower, told them I’ll probably get a 36 inch walk behind. The gasps and guffaws were deafening. On the other hand they are fat, I’m not, nor do I want to be.

  220. 3B says:

    QE # by the Fall, according to the below link. old news for those here.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-will-launch-qe3-by-fall-expert-says-2011-07-08?dist=countdown

  221. Juice Box says:

    Sitting here down the shore waiting for the FIOS guy to show up all afternoon. I look out the window and he has been parked down the street for the last two hours. Looks like he is sleeping his way to overtime. No wonder Americans are so screwed.

  222. gator (213)-

    Monklair is the new NJ: it’s only a fit place to live if you’re a multimillionaire or in abject poverty. Those in-between should kindly move on.

  223. 3B says:

    And in other news, consumer credit expanded in May, which the stock market liked,which has pared losses after today’s dismal jobs number.

    Did credit expand because people are buying, or did it expand, because the recovery is not a recovery, and people are using to credit to make ends meet. Just saying.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/blue-chips-pare-declines-after-credit-data-2011-07-08?dist=afterbell

  224. 3B says:

    #23 Sorry Should be QE3 by the Fall.

  225. nicholas (218)-

    Cancer is waking up every day. Can’t avoid it; it’s part of Amerikan DNA.

  226. juice (230)-

    Back in the good old days, there’d be a crazed serial killer to take care of people sleeping in their trucks. NYC in the summer of ’77 was an exciting place.

  227. Anyone who has any kind of credit should max it out, then default.

    It is truly stupid to do anything otherwise.

  228. Anon E. Moose says:

    Juice [227];

    Nice find. I like the cliff dive from ’20 to ’30. See what a good (Great!) depression will do for immigration policy?

    I can’t wait until it is updated with 2010 Census Data.

    You expect a repeat? I don’t get my hopes up that the fall off will be nearly as dramatic.

  229. Juice Box says:

    3b – Revolving credit continues to contract.

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/REVOLNS

    What Credit is increasing? The government is using Sallie Mae to flood the economy with student-loan debt

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTALGOV

  230. reinvestor101 says:

    >>Now people have no hope of that upward mobility, so they grab it when they can.<<<

    For good damn reason too. These damn real estate terrorists would have everyone scratching out a damn existence struggling to have something. I saw one of my damn neighbors growing a damn garden acting like a damn scaredy cat because he lost his damn job and is afraid he's not going to eat and yet he's a stinking liberal who voted for Obama. Let me tell you something, if this damn thing doesn't start to turn around and if my damn equity doesn't get restored, I'll be in the damn street myself burning a damn effigy and tearing some shlt up. I'm sick of this shlt. My damn income is down, my damn house is worthless and the stinking buyers keep teasing me and messing me with these damn lowballs. The next one that does that is getting shot.

    Did someone mention starving China? Yeah, that's the damn ticket. For all we know they might be behind the damn real estate terrorists. Hell, I'd love to send a missile up Bejig's ass, but starving those damn commies is just as good.

  231. reinvestor101 says:

    >>All my friends ask me when I”m getting a riding mower, told them I’ll probably get a 36 inch walk behind. The gasps and guffaws were deafening. On the other hand they are fat, I’m not, nor do I want to be.<<<

    Stop being a cheapass and start worrying about fitting in with your damn friends. Get a damn riding lawnmower and if you want to lose weight, take out a damn membership at LA fitness. It's people like you that are causing the damn economy to hit a tailspin. Spend some damn money.

  232. 3B says:

    #38 What Credit is increasing? The government is using Sallie Mae to flood the economy with student-loan debt

    And the market I guess likes this??

  233. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    ten year was under 3% today and I got several new notifications of new muni bonds being issued and I got a full call on a high coupon muni I own. lots of principal being returned with interest this month next. I guess big Bens plans are working. I got called on a 6.5% coupon tax free muni. No place to put cash now. Must wait!! I hate waiting. Big Ben is going to win.

    I really do like real estate as an investment. However, whenever I call on an REO, it is like hire a lawyer, pay a home inspector, pay insurance, pay RE taxes, pay closing costs and then I need to fix home. I am like 50K in the whole before I even get a tenant in. Stocks and Bonds are like hiring mexicans you let someone else do the work.

    That muni that got called at par today was issued at par in 2000. One could have got 6.5% tax free with zero associated expenses for 11 years. Housing seems a lot of work. However, I feel I am not living the american dream. I can’t whip out my brokerage statement at a family party to say I am rich but if I had a 1.2 million home I would not have to. Even better someone could put zero down on a 1.2 million home and be a millionaire, only in america. Lot easy than saving one million.

    On a side note in my downpayment savings that I aggressively started adding to in 2007 is approaching one million. I will announce the magic number when it arrives. The lion share of gains was between October 2008 and June 2009 when I bought 25K a month in Junk Bonds and between December 2010 and April 2011 when I bought 25K a month in munis. Holding your noise and covering your eyes while chanting no muff to tuff is a difficult way to invest but only way to invest if you want to see big returns.

    I hope I do not have the urge to capitulate like Grim did.

  234. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    50.5 you really are tarded, said I was going to get a 36 inch walk behind, which would involve a purchase, not fat (ride a mountain bike and play hockey), probably more rock ribbed then you are, dumb a$$

  235. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    Son of Sam. Elaphas, I think was the name in Bayside where he did one of his last killings. It later turned into a Tony Romas and I enjoyed eating ribs there.

    Hobo With a Shotgun says:
    July 8, 2011 at 4:08 pm

    juice (230)-

    Back in the good old days, there’d be a crazed serial killer to take care of people sleeping in their trucks. NYC in the summer of ’77 was an exciting place.

  236. Juice Box says:

    3b – non-dischargeable student loans, this generation is in for some real debt serfdom.

  237. (242)-

    Folks, meet your garden-variety muni bond investor:

    “Holding your noise and covering your eyes while chanting no muff to tuff is a difficult way to invest but only way to invest if you want to see big returns.”

  238. chicagofinance says:

    WTF is your problem ya’ yutz?

    Nicholas says:
    July 8, 2011 at 2:37 pm
    Yeah Jamil be sure to help spread cancer sticks to those around you so that you can contribute to someone getting cancer and make a few dollars on the side. I’m sure that will help you feel better and ensure you a way into a sweet afterlife. I’m almost sure that karma won’t come around to bite you and when you find someone dealing death to your kids you won’t be so surprised.

    /sarcasm off

    Everything you do has a consequence. Scribe in general giving someone else cancer in exchange for a bit of money in your pocket isn’t the best idea I have heard today.

  239. Al Mossberg says:

    239.

    Reinvestor,

    LMFAO. Thanks for that.

  240. reinvestor101 says:

    >>>50.5 you really are tarded, said I was going to get a 36 inch walk behind, which would involve a purchase, not fat (ride a mountain bike and play hockey), probably more rock ribbed then you are, dumb a$$<<<

    WTF?

    Still being a cheapass. Do your patriotic duty and spend more money on a damn riding lawn mower. You cheapskate terrorist types kill me with this damn twofer business by trying to cut the damn lawn and get exercise at the same damn time. It's that stinking attitude that's causing all the damn problems we got now.

    Lets get something damn straight, I don't give a tinker's damn about your stinking mountain bike or your playing hockey. That's pantywaist stuff for weak kneed wusses, so I'm not impressed.

    Damn commie.

  241. Al Mossberg says:

    Where the h_ll has Lone Ranger been? I think we are on the verge of a big move.

  242. Kettle1^2 says:

    Nom

    you should get a kick out of this:

    http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c112:h2411:

    “Reduce America’s Debt Now Act of 2011.”
    “Every employer making payment of wages shall deduct and withhold upon such wages any amounts so elected, and shall pay such amounts over to the Secretary of the Treasury…”
    any contribution made to the Treasury in order to pay down the federal debt IS NOT TAX DEDUCTIBLE.

  243. Kettle1^2 says:

    Al,

    Ranger is busy making room in his vault

  244. Nicholas says:

    WTF is your problem ya’ yutz?

    I’m an ex-smoker. I enjoyed smoking. I compensate by hating on smokers, people who profit from smoking, and especially people who litter by throwing cigarette butts out the window.

    Makes me feel better about myself in some small way.

  245. Confused In NJ says:

    Bloomberg keeps a pack of Camels in his desk draw, so he can light up when the end comes, even though it’s against his Law.

  246. Confused In NJ says:

    Several of my friends who never smoked were killed by intravenous chemotherapy. They don’t track those stats though.

  247. Painhrtz - Cat of God says:

    Al don’t feed the tard

    50.5 a commercial 36 inch walk behind costs significantly more used than a garden variety ride on you would pick up at a box store. I’m buying a new one, which is twice as much. So go f*ck yourself

  248. reinvestor101 says:

    >>50.5 a commercial 36 inch walk behind costs significantly more used than a garden variety ride on you would pick up at a box store. I’m buying a new one, which is twice as much. So go f*ck yourself<<<

    Well that's better. Just make sure you don't scrimp here and get the top of the line version. After you get it, hightail your ass over to my place so we can test the damn thing out by cutting my damn grass first. What? You want me to pay you? Get the hell out of here. I ain't paying for shlt. You're the one who said he wanted the damn exercise, so just cut my 5 acres and be happy that I'm providing an opportunity for you to work out for free.

  249. Kettle1^2 says:

    Hobo

    US Taxpayers Just Paid $780 Million To Fund The Latest Greece Bailout Tranche new
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/08/2011 18:59 -0400

    Central Banks European Central Bank Fail Federal Reserve Greece Gross Domestic Product International Monetary Fund John Paulson Reuters

    The IMF is delighted to announce that it just approved a €3.2 billion disbursement of cash for Greece, its fifth, as part of the €12 billion in money that Greece needs in order to continue operating in the months f July and August. And just for what purpose will this money be used, one may ask? Well, as explained a few weeks ago, in Greek Math: €12 Billion In, €18.2 Billion Out the entire amount will be promptly recycled by global financial institutions in the form of debt maturities and interest payments, which amount to €18.2 billion in the months of July and August. Simply said ECB, EU and IMF money in, money owed to bankers out. The kicker: 17.09% of the money coming from the IMF, comes from, that’s right dear US taxpayer, you (and since 21% of the quota contributions allocated to the IMF are deemed “non-usable”, the actual number funded by the US is likely much higher). But this plot has a bonus kicker: as we reported on Wednesday, the actual Greek debt is no longer owed by European banks to the extent it had been previously expected: a development that threatens to scuttle the entire second Greek bailout plan as currently proposed. So as the banks have been selling Greek debt, who has been buying? Mostly hedge funds, such as everyone’s favorite John Paulson. So to recap: US taxpayers have just paid out about $780 million of the $4.6 billion in order to fund interest owed to… hedge funds.

  250. confused (255)-

    Mengele is the father of chemotherapy. I’d rather die smoking.

  251. vodka (258)-

    It is an amazing testament to Amerikan stupidity that virtually none of us have internalized the fact that our gubmint has declared war on us. They will not stop until they have stolen everything we own, enslaved our kids and throughly demoralized us.

    We are absorbing the equivalent of a blitzkrieg of Holland or Belgium every few weeks, and it is at the hands of our own gubmint. 780 million here, 550 million there…pretty soon, we’ll all just be sleeping outdoors and roaming the country in packs.

    Nothing less than armed insurrection and a bloody, all-out civil war can stop what has been put in motion.

  252. It occurs to me that some of the madmen in charge of things now make Mengele seem reasonable by comparison.

    I don’t say this lightly, as my MIL witnessed some of Mengele’s insanity in Auschwitz.

  253. Al Mossberg says:

    260.

    Nah. Just have to preserve your wealth. Let the pot bellied pigs due the heavy lifting.

  254. All Hype says:

    Doom(260):

    I am still in shock with this graph:

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTALGOV

    These students in college will be debt slaves for the rest of their lives. Hard to group into armed militias when you have to pay back 150k in student loans while working at Burger King part time.

    Besides, thanks to Dancing with the Stars and Snookie they have been properly sedated. They will go to slaughter with hardly any trouble.

  255. Fabius Maximus says:

    Shore, f O hand continued funding of Constellation, the GOP would have called it fiscally irresponsible. If there is money to be made in it I’m sure the private sector will find it. You can’t have this both ways. You are a big voice in here screaming for spending cuts. So go ahead and defend why it shouldn’t have be cut.

  256. Krieger lets loose with both barrels today (BTW, at the end of the piece, he links to Martin Armstrong’s latest, which is brilliant):

    “This is a piece that has been festering in my head for quite some time now and I was waiting for the right moment to pen it. That time is now. In some ways The Bernank made a huge mistake by not launching QE3 right away when he had the chance. Now don’t get me wrong, I am not in favor of any of this nonsense and I think The Bernank’s profession needs to go the way of the dodo bird, but I mean from the perspective of a Central Banker I think he made a big mistake by taking a breather from at least the printing and manipulations that they admit to. The reason I say this is because up until the last month or so The Fed had been essentially telling the American sheeple that all was under control and that since The Bernank had studied the Great Depression and Japan he could save us from all the mistakes that were made back in those less enlightened times. The Fed was saying that they could pull off the equivalent of preventing a serious hangover for someone that chugged an entire bottle of tequila. They basically claimed to have found a way to break the laws of the universe.

    Unfortunately for them, the cruel forces of reality have intervened and proven that they actually did not figure out how to change the immutable laws of physics. This truth became abundantly clear at The Bernank’s most recent press conference (which if he is smart will be his last) where it became all too clear that even he comprehends on some level that his theories and in fact his entire life has been a complete waste of time and energy. That would be ok if he were confined to some University lecture hall; however, his lunacy was unleashed on the entire planet and we will all suffer the dire consequences of it for many years to come. He has basically shoved another bottle of tequila down the throat of the already passed out drunkard and now he not just unconscious but is DYING.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mike-krieger-explains-why-qe-3-will-merely-keep-lights

  257. Confused In NJ says:

    259.Hobo With a Shotgun says:
    July 8, 2011 at 9:46 pm
    confused (255)-

    Mengele is the father of chemotherapy. I’d rather die smoking.

    True enough, I had one friend die at 59, who quit smoking at 25. He had one lump near the right sholder diagnosed as Melanoma. After three months of Dycarbazine, etc. to shrink it, he died. Like Josef Mengele, at the end he looked like an Aushwitz inmate, as the systemic poisons attacked all his vital organs.

  258. Juice Box says:

    #263 – hype – read the fine print, you can work it off being a teacher or join the military etc.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/31/us/politics/31obama.html

  259. Fabius Maximus says:

    Clot,

    As a bhoys fan I hold distain for anyone who has ever pulled on a Gers jersey. But I will hold my nose and look past that and give Ramsey his dues. A three star in London, a two star in NY and another in France among the 1 star stragglers is nothing to sneeze at. Good food and standard who cares if he’s a c***. There again, I’ll ring the bell at Bobbys Burger Palace any time. I don’t care whohe is, that is an $8 burger it executed perfectly. Its closest challenger is the $13 burger at Galaghers in Terminal 3 at EWR.

    There has been a lot talk about London today in here, especially about the food. All I can say is that I have been trying to get back to London for the past 5 years to get a meal at St John. NY may be more diverse when it comes to food, buy these days London is leading out.

    Living in London is a lot like NY. While they have their Marcy Projects (and actually worse) if you know your way around, you can hit Bay Ridge and Brooklyn Heights at very affordable prices.

  260. cobbler says:

    hype [263]
    The recent hump on the chart that scared you is DOE buying the private student loan paper; these loans should still be dischargeable:
    Starting with March 2009 numbers, data are revised to incorporate loans purchased by the
    Department of Education under the 2007-08 and 2008-09 Loan Purchase Programs

  261. Fabius Maximus says:

    #150 Nom

    “Better idea is to have a few 55 gal drums at the nompound with a barrel hand pump. Each member group. would have their barrel in a separate locker in the hazmat bunker and responsible for its upkeep. Properly stabilized and cycled, it will provide a ready supply for TSHTF.”

    This is even funnier than your zodiacs out of Manhatten Idea.

    55 Gallons will just about cover filling up the gas tank of the Ford Expidition they drove out to the Nompound in ….:*)

  262. cobbler says:

    hobo [266]
    Smoking had not ever been shown to cause melanoma. Discouraging kids and young adults from using tanning salons (or laying on the beach more than 3 hrs/day even when using the sunblock) will do wonders in preventing it.

  263. Juice Box says:

    Re: 269 – cobbler sure another cash for trash program, but the education bubble is still in full effect.

    short time soon?

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/277941-shorting-student-loans-the-next-major-credit-bubble

  264. Fabius Maximus says:

    “Enjoy the taxes as well, I believe if you mtgax fiake over 37k pounds they hit you with 40% rates and 50% above 150k pounds.”

    One thing that you have to understand about EU taxes is that it is very simple and done at source. You can earn 50-150K and the tax filing at that level is 4 pages. Under that level you don’t file, tax is done at a straight percentage and is taken at source by the employer.
    The whole thing about Greeks not paying tax is a little bogus. Joe and Jan Spanakopia are paying their taxes at source, it is the employers holding back on paying up or not paying their own income tax.

  265. Fabius Maximus says:

    #217 Scribe,

    They are just about undercutting the Illegal cigs coming in from the EU. VAT fraud is rife in that area.

  266. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Hands down most optimistic outlook from Hobo about anything, ever…

    Hobo With a Shotgun says: July 8, 2011 at 8:42 am
    veets (14)-The soccer here is getting better. I’ve seen several very good MLS games this year. Ajax is also going to get involved in a big way at the youth level within the next year or two. I’m even encouraged by the kind of training my own kid is getting; the trainers come to practice with a plan in mind, they demand attention and intensity, and they burn your ass if you don’t execute. I think if things fall right, we are 10-12 years away from having top quality clubs and being able to put out a USMNT that can compete consistently at a top level.

  267. cobbler says:

    juice [272]
    For most (>95%) borrowers undergraduate loans total less than 50K, so only small portion of these guys will have a major and lasting many years problem paying. Large loans are too few to cause the dire results predicted by the SA author. Graduate school loans (especially law) are more problematic, but at least 70% will be paid in full and on time – and there will be significant recovery on most of the remainder, so this crisis is much smaller than anything RE related. Some patches (like loans to all the ridiculous trade schools grads) may suffer big time, but the bulk of the system will be relatively OK. As the rate is 3% higher than what you’d pay today for a mortgage of the similar term, it takes care of a lot of delinquencies.

  268. Shore Guy says:

    Fabius,

    I suspect you are right and there would have been some members of my party who would have attacked space spending. That said, thos members are putzes. Space exploration is not about commercial profits or immediate returns. Heck, our modern economy is largely based on technology developed in thr quest to achieve greatness in space. Those who today bemoan spending on space would have been the same ones saying “why fund the Nina, Pinta, and Santa Maria while there are hungry people here in España.”

    It is an essential human quality to press into the unknown. Wde are idiots for not continuing with a robust manned space program.

  269. Shore Guy says:

    “US Taxpayers Just Paid $780 Million To Fund The Latest Greece Bailout Tranche”

    Clearly, Bush’s fault.

  270. cobbler says:

    Shuttle is a 30+ yo technology. The huge advancements of the Apollo and [early] space shuttle era came from the state-sponsored technology development programs. Recently, the govt hadn’t subsidized any technology development except military and some “green energy” – for the latter, unfortunately, it looks like the grants go to the better grant writers rather than better scientists. I am not talking about the tax credits for installing the Chinese solar panels.

  271. Shore Guy says:

    If we kill or delay the Webb Telescope, we deserve falling behind the Russians and Chinese, for we will have proved our idiocy.

  272. Shore Guy says:

    http://www.slate.com/id/2298444/

    Dump your fluorescents and incandescents for this amazing new LED bulb.

    snip

    That’s because today’s main alternative, compact-fluorescent bulbs, are awful. They’ve got three main shortcomings: They’re ugly; they contain mercury, which can be extremely hazardous if the bulbs are broken; and most importantly, they put out harsh, white light that many people (myself included) find unbearable.

    Switch Lighting claims to have solved all of those problems. When I arrived at Switch, Brett Sharenow, the company’s chief strategy officer, showed me two lamps. Inside one was a standard 75-watt incandescent bulb. Switch’s 75-watt replacement bulb, which uses only 16 watts of power, was plugged into the other. The lampshades prevented me from seeing the bulbs directly—I couldn’t tell which lamp contained which bulb. When Sharenow turned on the lamps, the light from each lamp looked identical. The moment was completely undramatic, and that was the point. Switch has spent years developing bulbs that produce something thoroughly unexceptional—light that looks exactly like what we’re used to

    snip

  273. gluteus (268)-

    Ramsey’s original joint is good. Just hate his trailer-park Ducasse act.

    IMO, Manoir au Quat’Saisons is the bomb. Well worth the short trip to Oxfordshire.

  274. veets (275)-

    I think it’s reasonable to expect a good USMNT in 10-12 years. I still think a housing recovery is 50-100 years away.

  275. scribe says:

    Nicholas,

    I’m an ex-smoker, too – 38 years, at least 2 packs a day.

    But for the way the government has decided to target smokers with excessive, obscene taxes – figuring them to be a vulnerable population – I’m all in favor of butt-legging.

    Rather than p*ss on current smokers, I’m always gracious about allowing people to smoke in my home. I offer ashtrays without being asked, and I don’t make anyone go outside and huddle in the rain.

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