So much for cheap mortgage money

From CNBC:

Plunging Mortgage Rates Won’t Juice Housing

The one positive in all the uncertainty surrounding the nation’s debt was a plunge in Treasury yields, which in turn sent mortgage rates to record lows.

The 30 year fixed hit a near-low of 4.45 percent last week from 4.57 percent, and the 15 year made a new low of 3.52 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Those low rates pushed refinance applications up 7.8 percent and purchase applications up 5.2 percent (both seasonally adjusted).

So are we housing geeks now jumping for joy? All good? Maybe not so much.

“Refinance application volume increased, but even though 30-year mortgage rates are back below 4.5 percent, the refinance index is still almost 30 percent below last year’s level. Factors such as negative equity and a weak job market continue to constrain borrowers,” notes the MBA’s VP of research and economics, Michael Fratantoni. “Purchase activity increased off of a low base, returning to levels of one month ago, but remains weak by historical standards.”

So even ridiculously low rates are not exactly boosting the housing recovery; that’s because rates have been historically low for a while.

“The problem is not the price of credit,” says economist Paul Dales at Capital Economics. “The key issue is that the high unemployment rate, tight credit criteria and high share of homeowners underwater on their mortgage are all keeping a lid on demand regardless of the price of credit. With the economy now weakening once again, these constraints are not going to go away soon.”

This is why Dales sees home prices weakening further, and we see that in data today from CoreLogic. Home prices were down 6.8 percent in June year over year, if you include distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales). That is a slightly deeper fall than May’s annual number. Without distressed sales, home prices were down 1.1 percent in June annually. That’s a bit better than the 2.1 percent annual drop in May. Of course you have to remember that distressed sales make up more than a third of the housing market right now, and far higher percentages in certain local markets.

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238 Responses to So much for cheap mortgage money

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. grim says:

    From the Boston Globe:

    Intercontinental Real Estate inks big NJ development deal

    Boston’s Intercontinental Real Estate Corp. has inked a $215 million development deal in New Jersey, where it will renovate an outdated office complex into the new US headquarters of Danish drug maker Novo Nordisk.

    The deal is the biggest commercial real estate transaction in New Jersey this year and adds to steadily building momentum in the US property market. Wells Fargo and Sovereign Bank are providing financing for the deal, and the project is expected to attract additional lenders.

    “This transaction is certainly a signal that banks, both domestic and international, have faith in the commercial markets coming back,” said Peter Palandjian, chief executive of Intercontinental, which is partnering with Ivy Equities and LCOR Corp. “We haven’t seen projects of this size since before the collapse.”

    Intercontinental and its partners will renovate and upgrade a 770,000-square-foot office building in Plainsboro, N.J., that will be Novo Nordisk’s new US home; it will be among several other large drug firms with labs and offices in that area. Novo Nordisk is primarily known for its diabetes treatments.

  3. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Summer home price gains fall short of winter declines

    Home prices gained 4.1% in the second quarter from the previous period but the summer growth was not enough to bounce back to levels measured one year ago, according to the data provider Clear Capital.

    June home prices remain down 7.9% from June 2010, 1.8% lower from June 2009 and even down 1% from January. Last month, Clear Capital said it expected another 2.4% in declines in the second half of 2011.

    There were encouraging signs, however. All four U.S. regions posted quarterly gains in the second quarter led by a 6.3% increase in the Midwest. It’s the first time all four regions posted a gain without a tax-credit stimulus since 2006.

    “Building off last month’s minimal quarterly gains, prices continue to correct from winter’s extended declines,” said Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “Although this is encouraging, many markets are still near, or at record lows as REO saturation remains a significant proportion of all sales activity.”

  4. Shore Guy says:

    Hey, if people do not want one’s product, one just needs to drop the price. Even broken toys will eventually sell at a flea market, if the price is low enough.

  5. Kettle1^2 says:


    how many nations have successfully inflated their way out of debt when it approaches 100% of GDP. Intentionally accelerating inflation at this debt level has ended poorly for every nation that has tried it.
    I guess all of those economics gurus failed history.

  6. Shore Guy says:


    It could work, I suspect, IF we were running surpluses. Otherwise we will just inflate the debt too.

  7. yo'me says:

    Have you travelled abroad lately? Inflation of most countries I have been to is much worst than in the US.Some countries charge staple products, double of the price we pay in the US.
    And this is where income is less than us.

  8. yo'me says:

    What do you think of this guys argument

    The U.S. debt is denominated in dollars. The government issues dollars. Do Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s think that there will be some point in the future where the government will not be able to issue dollars?

    Let’s say this so that even a reporter with an elite news outlet can understand it. Suppose I issue IOUs that are payable in Dean Baker IOUs. What is the likelihood that I will ever default on my IOUs?

    That’s right, unless I lose the ability to write, the probability is zero. There is a possibility that at some point that Dean Baker IOUs will lose some of their value (i.e. inflation) because I have issued so many of them. However the credit rating agencies are not in the business of making inflation predictions. They certainly don’t have any obvious expertise in this area.

    Furthermore, if a debt downgrade for the U.S. is simply a forecast for higher inflation, then the debt downgrade must apply to every debt issue denominated in dollars. In other words, if U.S. debt loses 30 percent of its value because of higher than expected inflation, then so will dollar denominated debt issued by General Electric, AT&T, or the government of Israel.

    In other words, if the concern really is higher inflation, then the credit rating agencies must be considering downgrading all debt denominated in dollars. But, they have not threatened every issuer of dollar denominated debt with a credit downgrade, so this must not be what they mean.

    So, what does the threat of a credit downgrade mean? The reporters should be asking this question and giving us the answer. This is their job.

  9. Low mortgage rates in this environment are the RE equivalent of transfusing a dead person.

    The patient is dead. He cannot be brought back to life.

    The stench of death is everywhere.

  10. yo'me says:

    #8 With widening income gap.The top 10% earners are the only ones enjoying the fruits of the bailouts.

  11. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “Intentionally accelerating inflation at this debt level has ended poorly for every nation that has tried it.”
    Kettle its not that us economists and central bankers have failed history, they just re-wrote it so you no longer think it ever existed.

  12. Kettle1^2 says:


    do you really think we would be disciplined enough to run a surplus while strictly managing inflation? do you think the general public would stand for that? they would demand that their entitlements be restored and expanded if we had a surplus.

  13. Shore Guy says:


    Indeed. They would see surplus and say “gimme gimme” all whilst ignoring the debt that we should be paying.

  14. yo'me says:

    Is this really the cost of the US Deficits?

    When the North American Free Trade Agreement was first signed in 1994, proponents said it would eventually create jobs for the U.S. economy.

    17 years later, a new report estimates, the American worker only has hundreds of thousands of job losses to show for it.

    According to a report by Economic Policy Institute economist Robert Scott, entitled “Heading South: U.S.-Mexico trade and job displacement after NAFTA,” an estimated 682,900 U.S. jobs have been “lost or displaced” because of the agreement and the resulting trade deficit.
    Perhaps the most drastic switch post-NAFTA has been in the two country’s trade deficit. In 1993, before the signing of NAFTA, the U.S. held a $1.6 billion trade surplus over their neighbor to the south, which supported 29,400 jobs. By 1997, the tides had turned, and Mexico laid claim to a much larger surplus of $16.6 billion. As of 2010, it’s not even close. Mexico’s trade surplus now hovers around $97.2 billion.

    Jobs continue to be lost to NAFTA today. In the years 2007-2010, the U.S. economy has lost 116,400 as a result of the trade deficit created by NAFTA. And last year, the growth of Mexican auto exports to the United States alone created more Mexican jobs — 30,400 — than the entire U.S. auto industry

  15. yo'me says:

    There came globalization

  16. 3b says:

    #2 Novo Moving in, and Merck moving out.

  17. Comrade Nom Deplume says:


    The drumbeat for protectionism is starting to pick up.

    Over the long term, I predict a permanently depressed dollar and creeping protectionism to quietly gut Nafta and our trade treaties, and hold up imports.

    I predict that customs will be hiring. After all, we have to inspect each container from China to be sure AQ isn’t smuggling dirty bombs into the US. And if imports get held up, oh well…

  18. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    To put it into perspective, Canada is doing really well and they employee a good number of America Auto Jobs as well. Eventually you realize it is the taxes, regulatory environment, and unions with the US auto companies. How come Hyundai, Toyota, Mercedes, BMW, Honda and Nissan, turn a profit using american workers building products here? right to work states, efficiancy, managed costs. don’t give me the they ship money overseas argument. Their workers spend money here and they have shareholders here. So to state that auto companies are a fair barometer of NAFTA’s failings is nothing but a strawman argument.

  19. gary says:

    “The problem is not the price of credit,” says economist Paul Dales at Capital Economics. “The key issue is that the high unemployment rate, tight credit criteria and high share of homeowners underwater on their mortgage are all keeping a lid on demand regardless of the price of credit. With the economy now weakening once again, these constraints are not going to go away soon.”

    Any questions? Bitch?

  20. JJ says:

    S&P Futures are down10 pts with Dow Futures down 85 pts. I smell capitulation.

    Also mortgage rates are meaningless. If I offered you 3% margin rates would you rush out and buy stocks? No you would only buy stocks if you thought they were going up in price. If you think homes prices are set to fall 5% next year a 0% mortgage would still not help you. The asset you are buying has to be an appreciating asset in excess of the interest on the loan you are taking out to buy it. Or at best you break even after taking into account tax break. Neither is happening now.

  21. Confused In NJ says:

    The Us will soon switch to the Peso or Lira.

  22. gary says:

    Oblammy looking to save jobs… tonight he makes an attempt to save his own. And at $38,500 a plate, I guess he only hates the so-called rich who don’t agree with his narcissistic vision of utopia.

  23. JJ says:

    BTW Rhode Island paying bondholders in full and sticking loss with lazy muni workers who caused problem. Free Market Capitalism at its finest.

  24. gary says:


    The asset you are buying has to be an appreciating asset in excess of the interest on the loan you are taking out to buy it.

    Try explaining that to the guy who is going to close on a house this morning. ;)

  25. 3b says:

    This will come as a shock , what with prices being up in the land of Unicorns 26% since last year and all but Brig-on-Hack is looking to do a tax reassessment next year, after being slammed with tax appeals.

  26. Sema says:

    Gary – Thank you so much for all your comments and insight over the past few months regarding unemployment, and the lack of jobs other than contract jobs. My husband just became a Merck layoff statistic (they needed the Schering Plough product, not the people) and is now facing the depressing reality of looking for a nonexistent job. And because he is in his late 50s – all his expertise, knowledge, graduate school education, and years of hard work won’t help. I personally have no hope for NJ’s economy or for the future of the (shrinking) middle class.

  27. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Gary the truly wealthy don’t pay income taxes so what are they worried about. the idiots in hollywood don’t even see their paychecks or how much is taken out. they have people for that. All the hand wring comes from the so-called rich who work for a living. If they jack up rates to astronomical rates they will just start compensating the boobs on wallstreet in stock, bonds and portfolio options. Same thing with evil CEO’s and executives at other companies. They will take some in cash, the rest in deferred compensation. So I kind of laugh at all the vitriol toward the “rich” because the law of unintended consequences will hurt small business owners who will be forced to perform layoffs to meet their new tax burden. While the truly wealthy won’t even notice.

    Revolutions almost never start with the poor, they always start with the middle to upper middle class when their lifestyles are threatened. I would argue that our relatively comforatble republic has been due to the stability of our middle class with the carrot of upward mobility. With that all but gone that is why I’m buying ammo.

  28. Juice Box says:

    QE3 in Switzerland, Japan Currency Intervention no where to run no where to hide except maybe gold.

    Anyone wanna bet we get Gold intervention in 3-5 years?

  29. Mike says:

    3b No. 18 Novo moving 500 into NJ, Merck removing 5000 from NJ

  30. pine_brook says:

    Free trade agreements cost not just jobs. We lost 15% of our income due to outsourcing
    Did anybody listen to Donald on Fox yesterday? He summarized it all.

  31. Juice Box says:

    re # 29 – Painhrtz how about they change Long Term to Long Term aka 5 years or more, and then tax loans on stock options?

  32. 3b says:

    #31 Mike: The article makes it sound as if this redevelopment heralds the beginning of a bright new sunny day for NJ’s economy, and strength in the commercial sector and all of that.

  33. gary says:


    There’s nothing more I could say here other than I absolutely sympathize with you and understand totally. Pause… take a deep breath, roll your sleeves up and map out a strategy that will eventually get you back on the lead lap. It’s just an obstacle right now; you’ve overcome them in the past, you’ll do so again. Hang in there! :)

  34. gary says:

    pine_brook [32],

    Trump on FOX yesterday was like watching a surgeon gut a fish using a laser. I didn’t blink for 15 minutes.

  35. Ben says:


    Dean Baker is right. The primary reason that any sort of debt is a crappy investment in the long term is because of the inflation prospects. He’s also right in the ratings from Moody’s are supposed to be based on default risk. In the end, Baker is a Keynesian cook who thinks that inflation is the solution to America’s problem and thinks that an export led recovery magically comes with a drop in the dollar. Both he and Krugman claimed the dollar would fall and exports would skyrocket in 2001. Well, the dollar sure did fall since then, yet exports got worse, and our trade deficit ballooned even more.

  36. gary says:

    DOW down 185 points.

    Yes… We… Can…

  37. gary says:

    “The Depression [in the wake of the financial crisis] was temporarily interrupted by a bunch of stimulus which ultimately weakened the economy further,” says Peter Schiff. He adds the government’s likely knee-jerk response of stimulating is, “probably going to be the fatal dose, the lethal dose” prior to “a complete economic collapse.”

    “Honey, grab your purse, we’re gonna go look at houses!”

  38. Kettle1^2 says:

    Pain, Shore

    From yesterday regarding space.

    Consider that the space shuttle launched cargo at a cost of about $20,000/lb to orbit. The Startram (Gauss/maglev launcher) concept which was last studied in 2005 was estimated to cost about 18 billion to build the Gen 1 system, which was a cargo only system. if we assume that actual construction cost 4X the estimate then the system still costs less then 100 billion to build. The system was estimated to be able to launch cargo to orbit at a cost of less than $5000/kg or about $2,500/lb. even if we quadruple that cost to be conservative, we have still cut launch costs in half.

    we could have revolutionized the space industry and started a real growth industry that no-one else would be able to reproduce in short order. Now consider that the FED has spent about 150 billion on GSE debt purchases alone.

    The FED has spent about 2+ trillion in bailouts so far. Imagine the productive structures we could have built and brought online with 2 trillion, 20X what is needed for a startram concept!!!

  39. pine_brook says:

    Slowly and steadily whatever left of our job market, will be taken away by chinese.
    Why anybody think by lowering USD will bring back jobs? They will simply lower their currency. Hope we can bring the trade protection before this contry is ruined beyond repair.

  40. Ben says:

    16, yo’me

    you want an accurate portrait of the results of NAFTA? Ross Perot laid it out before it ever happened. Watch this clip and watch the Vice Presidents crappy smirk during the whole time.

  41. gary says:

    What we really need is for Oblama to appoint a committee that that will establish an agency that can fund research in order to study the effects of long term unemployment and suggest a strategy for job creation.

  42. BC Bob says:

    “#2 Novo Moving in, and Merck moving out.”

    3b [18],

    Sounds like Glory Days.

  43. Sarah R. says:

    Re: 43. The short-term effect will be his losing 2012.

  44. Kettle1^2 says:

    Currency wars baby! Party ON!

    Reuters, “Italian prosecutors have seized documents at the offices of credit rating agencies Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s in a probe over Suspected “anomalous” Fluctuations in Italian share prices, a prosecutor said on Thursday.

  45. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:


    1150ish on the S&P is capitulation/start of QE3. Should see that by end of the month. They got it all set up for Benny to start buying treasuries again.

  46. BC Bob says:

    Simple game, follow the money; currency flows. The sun has set in the west. Those stuck in the rear view mirror will get buried.

  47. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:


    Layoffs Watch ’11: RBS

  48. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Pensavo che i miei soldi al sicuro in banca?

  49. gary says:

    DOW down 202 points

    Does everyone at the Oblama birthday bash get a shovel-ready unicorn as a party favor?

  50. gary says:


    Avete pensato male! ;)

  51. BC Bob says:

    “Currency wars baby! Party ON!”

    Kettle [46],

    Great call on the Yen. Not bad for a janitor.

  52. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Berlusconi ci salverà una volta che finisce passare del tempo con tutte le dive dei film Nudie

  53. gary says:

    How ironic is it that for the first time in history, an enemy needs nothing more than to crack open a cold one, sit back and watch the disintegration of the most powerful nation ever without firing a single shot or losing a single life?

  54. Kettle1^2 says:


    I guess even magic-8 balls are right sometimes.

  55. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    che vale ogni centesimo

  56. gary says:

    DOW down 233


  57. gary says:


    Amen! :)

  58. Kettle1^2 says:


    the magic 8 ball u found in the cafeteria says, if you wantbeasy money shirt gild to 1550

  59. gary says:

    correction… DOW down 260.

    “Honey, do you think they’ll accept our offer? Sue said she researched this and I understand there are multiple offers over asking!”

  60. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Gary 51 yeah to shove up the middle classess colective rear ends covered in sand and rubbing alcohol. Now bend over and take it.

  61. pine_brook says:

    BC 48,
    Disagree. May be Europe is going down but not America. Tarrif will burn down Asia.

  62. Juice Box says:

    Why the F are Newark flights now twice as expensive as LaGuardia?

  63. 3b says:

    #64 gary: You have it wrong now, home sellers will now feel that since mtg rates are dropping, they need to hold fast to their price, and in fact should raise their prices. Sue told me this is the strategy she is advising all of her homeseller clients to engage in.

  64. BC Bob says:


    If Europe goes down who’s the present day AIG?

    There is only one winner with tariffs/protectionism, and it’s not the US worker.

  65. BC Bob says:


    One other item; Trichet and Berlusconi each farted this morning. No contagion?

  66. Fabius Maximus says:

    So many topics, lets start with NAFTA, the great legacy of GWHB and Clintons admitted mistake in signing it. I personally give Clinton a pass on this, as his only options were veto (which the GOP congress had the numbers to override or add his labor and environment riders.

    Here is my favorite primer on NAFTA. This should be compulsory viewing for kids.

  67. seif says:

    #68 – sounds like an awful strategy. how about the baby boomers that are seeing their home values (read: nest egg) disintegrating and start thinking “holy shit honey…its been sitting on the market for a year and going backwards..we gotta get out before it falls anymore…that broker told us we would get $750K a year ago and now the house down the block that listed a month ago just sold for $620K!”

  68. Libtard in the City says:

    We’ve got to get Wilson and tell him to sell.

  69. JC says:

    The silver lining behind the market collapse is that everyone said that it was “uncertainty” about the debt deal that was causing the markets to be volatile. Now that it’s done, the markets are still volatile. Now we get to see how people who voted Teabag feel when they look at their retirement statements just in time to watch the Supercongress decide to gut their Social Security.

    Barn door, horse, etc.

  70. Libtard in the City says:

    And 2.51 in the flight to safety, which seems counter-intuitive. Doesn’t it?

  71. Fabius Maximus says:

    NAFTA redux.

    One funny thing about it, is the lawsuits that get thrown up. My favorite was the shipping company that was suing the canadians for the right to fill their tankers with water from the Great Lakes to ship it to California for Irrigation.
    Followed by the close second. “Canadian investor challenged U.S. policy of
    disposing nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada site. Investor held patents for competing waste disposal method and location.”

  72. Shore Guy says:


    The reason Newark flights are so expensive is Newark’s proximity to Montclair Bergen co., and NYC.

  73. Libtard in the City says:

    If that’s the case Shore, then Teterboro must be a bloody fortune due to its proximity to Brig-on-Hack.

  74. yo'me says:

    The thruly wealthy don’t pay taxes because of the loop holes,I tend to agree with Shore on flat tax but Graduated flat tax.This will eliminate all loop holes.

  75. gary says:

    seif [72],

    It’s called sarcasm.

  76. Juice Box says:

    Yeah I hate driving to LGA like everyone else but the disparity in prices
    in now obscene.

  77. gary says:

    JC [74],

    Yes, of course, it’s the teaparty’s fault. LMAO!!

  78. Libtard in the City says:

    Flat tax, like healthcare reform will never happen as it makes too much sense. The accounting lobby will never let it happen. Never forget who runs our government!

  79. Anon E. Moose says:

    Juice [55];

    Chairman O to Timmay: Just where do you think you’re going, bitch?!?

  80. Fabius Maximus says:

    #40 Ket

    What’s the cost/benefit return for the taxpayer. Why invest in that vs paying down the debt or foodstamps. Currently Ariane 5G is around $5K/lb and has the capacity to pick up the gap left by the shuttle.

    Any investement must show real jobs, not just funnel money to the LockheedMartins of the world. We need investments that can have high end development, but flow down into high skill /low skill volume manufacturing.

  81. 3b says:

    #72 People came to accept 15 and 20% a year appreciation (for 3 or 4 years), as natural. many then sucked all of the equity out to pay for toys or college tuitions or whatever. No prices are falling back to here they should have been, and these people are crying.

  82. Libtard in the City says:

    As for pricing in Newark, the reason the fares are so much more is due to lack of competition. Continental owned the airport. In order to merge with United they were forced to make way for Southwest. In a year or so, this should have an impact on Newark’s pricing which is now the most expensive airport in the country to fly out of. This is bizarre as Philly is one of the cheapest. On the bright side, I just booked a flight to Vegas in October for $230 on Virgin America from JFK. Best I could do from Newark was $440 at the time. If you know how to play the game, flying is cheaper now than it was 30 years ago. Service though, has been destroyed.

  83. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Lib Teterboro is how the unicorns manage overpopulation by using it as hub to ship out sunshine and skittles. they also wage their war on the care bears from there as the bears are overtly socialist.

  84. Kettle1^2 says:

    By the way, anyone who listens to a janitors financial opinions is probably going to lose their money.

  85. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    At this rate S&P will be at 800 by the time of Jackson Hole.

  86. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    You’ll get the same social security benefits. You’ll just have to work until you are 80 to get them.

  87. Fabius Maximus says:

    #89 Lib

    I just booked a flight to Europe that was a multi hop. It was cheaper to put a LGA to Phily hop in front to make it a 3 hop flight than to pick up the two hop from Philly directly.

  88. 3b says:

    #90 The Unicorns will also be holding a protest rally on the Town’s Hall front lawn against the proposed town reassessment. They believe it will reflect poorly on the magical mystical aura that envelops the town. They will not be leaving behind skittles on the lawn when the protest is over.

  89. Kettle1^2 says:

    the explosion in tech development would be massive. And 5k/kg is based on 1 launch per month. It’s gets cheaper as you increase volume. It also has safety advatages over rockets since there is no rocket booster to explode.

    Hitech field are our best hope for regaining any production competitiveness

  90. gary says:

    DOW down 350

    Yes… We… Can…

  91. Libtard in the City says:

    So is Brig-on-Hack’s town motto, “Taste the rainbow?”

  92. Libtard in the City says:

    QE3 is inevitable. The way this is going, we soon will envy the Greeks. P-I-G-S-U?

  93. 3b says:

    #99 Lib I will check with the Unicorns and see if they approve of it.

  94. gary says:

    10 yr. @ 2.46

    Thank goodness we’re insulated here!

  95. Juice Box says:

    re: #86 – Soon enough there won’t be a WS job for Timmay to fall back on. He paid a premium for the Larchmont house when he bought it in 2004, plunking down $1.6 million after a bidding war, and could not sell it so wife moved back with kids.

    $27,000 in annual property taxes, prob has a nice Jumbo over 1 million paying perhaps 6k a month mortgage.

    His current gig pays $191k dunno if he is getting a housing stipend, I don’t think the kids will be doing summer camp this year.

  96. yo'me says:

    Ben,Baker will have been right about the weak dollar increasing exports if the other countries did not depreciate their currency at the same time.Currency war baby!!

  97. gary says:

    Somebody ask Chris Matthews if he still has a tingle up his leg.

  98. Ben says:

    CNBC: “Breaking News: Gold Reverses Gains”

  99. 3b says:

    #03 And one would reasonably think he should have known better.

  100. All Hype says:

    “What we really need is for Oblama to appoint a committee that that will establish an agency that can fund research in order to study the effects of long term unemployment and suggest a strategy for job creation.”

    LOL!!!! My favorite post of the week.

  101. Libtard in the City says:

    Job czar?

  102. yo'me says:

    VIX up 21%

  103. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    GLD and SLV hung tough but you get a 3% drop and margin calls you start selling what people will buy to cover.

  104. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:


    Now people know why Timmy will do everything to keep the Ponzi going;)

  105. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    What Cahirman O should do is institute a 5 year plan and open some gulags in northern Alaska. F*ck if we are going to go all Solzhenitsyn might as well do it the right way

  106. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    What Chairman O should do is institute a 5 year plan and open some gulags in northern Alaska. F*ck if we are going to go all Solzhenitsyn might as well do it the right way

  107. yo'me says:

    PPT do your magic!I got back in yesterday

  108. Libtard in the City says:

    Sastry…The club meeting is tonight. Robes are optional. Please get back to me if you are interested.

  109. Ben says:

    104, yo’me

    “Ben,Baker will have been right about the weak dollar increasing exports if the other countries did not depreciate their currency at the same time.Currency war baby!!”

    But he wasn’t. It was amateurish to think that you can debase your currency and think that a country like China wouldn’t follow suit to keep trade flowing one way. Baker is a clear example of your typical academic. They make policies and they are disastrous. He reasons, if the dollar drops in value, exports are cheaper to the rest of the world, demand for US exports goes up, viola, job creation in the U.S. These geniuses don’t even consider the possibility that the rest of the world can devalue with us and nullify such an action.

    This is the reality of mainstream academic economists. They can solve all kinds of mathematical puzzles without having a clue about how the real world works.

  110. Kettle1^2 says:


    If we want new realms of economic growth we have to gain access to the raw materials. A single metallic NEO ( Near Earth Object) such as Eros has trillions of dollars worth of precious metals, base metals, and rare earth metal. Others are suspected of having massive amounts of kerogen ( the precursor to oil). The amounts of material available within approximately the same delta V ( amount energy needed to get to the target object) as the moon is potentially greater then all of the known reserves on earth.

    if the US government built and executed a mining mission to EROS the US debt could become essentially irrelevant as we could pay the interest in raw materials.

    You would also see some expected and some unexpected tech boomers, as some techs that are highly dependent on rare earth metals ( and therefore very expensive). if rare earth metals became as common as the base metals you would see a massive tech boom.

    Mining on the moon could produce enough helium 3 to run net energy positive fusion power plants that circumvent the current hurdles preventing us from developing useful fusion power generation.

    The potential economic growth of expanding beyond earths orbit is astronomical, but first we have to invest in the infrastructure and tech to reliably provide transport to and from space. That has yet to be done by anyone. The initial cost is high ( although dwarfed by the banking bailout) but the return on investment in the long term would be orders of magnitude.

  111. Kettle1^2 says:


    as BC bob has been saying for over a year, QE to infinitie. They wont stop until the house burns down.

  112. toomuchchange says:


    “On a blistering afternoon in Washington, D.C. (103 degrees) last week, nearly 100 people crammed into the New America Foundation’s air-conditioned hearing room to witness the Task Force on Job Creation release their new report titled “A Vision for Economic Renewal: An American Jobs Agenda.” Though the air conditioning helped people to cool off, things quickly reheated as the frustration over our nation’s economic policies became evident. The Task Force’s panel, comprised of Members of Congress and private sector leaders, spoke harshly about the country’s current economic path, lack of directional leadership, and unwillingness to address key issues that have plagued American manufacturers and businesses for years.

    Author, businessman, and Task Force Co-Chair Leo Hindery Jr. stressed that the first thing we can/should/must do is address China’s currency manipulation which continues to harm American businesses by allowing China to lower the price of goods leaving their shores. The report supports Mr. Hindery’s view by calling China’s currency manipulation “one of [their] most damaging” policies. “An undervalued yuan makes Chinese manufactured goods cheaper in the U.S. while making [our] goods more expensive in China,” says the report. “Undervaluation also encourages U.S. companies to move production from here to China and ship goods back to the U.S.”

    Also in attendance was Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA) who was somewhat critical of his own party’s president saying, “we lack the political leadership of the president” when it comes to manufacturing in the United States. He clarified that he would like President Obama to show some of the same passion and drive on manufacturing that he showed on healthcare.

    Congressman John Garamendi (D-CA), who has been very active on the “Make It In America” campaign, was on the panel as well. Among other things, he stressed the necessity for stronger domestic procurement requirements in place of many loopholes which result in taxpayer funds going overseas. He also supported the need for greater trade barriers with China citing the sole manufacturer of solar panels in the U.S. and its struggle to remain in business against China’s government-subsidized businesses.

    Patrick Mulloy, who served as an Assistant Secretary of Commerce under President Clinton, brought up several interesting points stating that “nobody is talking about tying the budget deficit to the trade deficit” and how “companies get tax incentives to manufacture abroad.”

    The report focuses on six sections, each of which calls for a different initiative:

    Focus on jobs. Repair our manufacturing sector. Make global trade fair for all. Fix our bridges, roads and railroads. Make America the genesis of innovation, green and otherwise. Put young people to work…Engage in that struggle and set things right.”

    Here’s the link to the Task Force on Job Creation’s report. It is a 32-page .pdf file:

    This meeting summary sounds great, doesn’t it? Every quote above and the six sections included in the report highlights sensible, critical and necessary things for us to do. So does that mean it’s automatically doomed?


    Oh God, I just read the Letter from the two Chairman of the Task Force that’s at the beginning of the pdf. So much compassion and common sense. I am afraid to read the rest right now, knowing how likely it is that it will be ignored.

    “This report shows a lot of big numbers with a lot of bad news. It is about
    globalization out of control, people without work, jobs lost to competitors
    overseas, a drop in manufacturing, unemployed youth with no options, America losing its technological edge.

    It is a sad stew of overwhelming facts that can be hard to confront.
    But confront them we must.

    Behind every indifferent statistic is a husband, wife, daughter, mother,
    sister, friend, neighbor or fellow American in trouble. There are many
    of them, and each has a tale of deprivation or loss that needs to be heard.

    President Franklin D. Roosevelt understood this when he told Congress and the nation in his final State of the Union Address, “We cannot be content, no matter how high the general standard of living may be, if some fraction of our people—whether it be one-third or one-fifth or one-tenth—is ill-fed, ill-clothed, ill-housed, and insecure.” He recognized that the economic challenges the nation faced during the Great Depression were playing out in the lives of ordinary Americans all across the country. President Roosevelt understood that his duty and that of government was to replace the insecurity and fear and hopelessness that had rightly gripped the population with palpable reasons for hope. He knew that Americans needed protections and employment and security.

    Our national leaders today need to think about the good people in our country who face the same fears and who need the same assurances.

    We need our Executive branch and Congressional leaders in Washington
    today, just as we needed them then, to help steer this nation to a
    safer harbor.

    Please accept this report, and our recommendations for immediate action.”

  113. The Original NJ Expat says:

    I believe the foreign auto game is rigged as follows:

    1. Toyota of North America is a separate entity from Toyota Japan.
    2. Toyota of North America builds cars here in the US, employs workers here in the US but also BUYS many of the PARTS(engines, for example) for these cars at INFLATED prices from Toyota of Japan.
    3. When all is said and done the COGS is so high for Toyota NA that the profit is piddling such that corporate taxes are effectively nil and the money is de facto shipped overseas due to the inflated cost of the Japanese parts imported to complete the vehicles. Granted, the NA subsidiaries are not beholden to the unions and the health care costs of retired generations of union workers, but they DO ship the money overseas and politicians look the other way in exchange for jobs created.

    To put it into perspective, Canada is doing really well and they employee a good number of America Auto Jobs as well. Eventually you realize it is the taxes, regulatory environment, and unions with the US auto companies. How come Hyundai, Toyota, Mercedes, BMW, Honda and Nissan, turn a profit using american workers building products here? right to work states, efficiancy, managed costs. don’t give me the they ship money overseas argument. Their workers spend money here and they have shareholders here. So to state that auto companies are a fair barometer of NAFTA’s failings is nothing but a strawman argument.

  114. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Sometimes I actually like Murray Sabrin

  115. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Expat true, but how is that any different than GE? Who bythe way is shipping than MRI manufacturing to China. My company which manufactures just about everything in China to remain competitive. GM makes more money in the Asian Dragon than they do here. think those taxes are coming back as they are set up as foreign holding compainies as well.

  116. Double Down says:

    “Canada is doing really well”

    Canada enjoys the free military umbrella provided by the US taxpayer (over $1 Trillion annually).

  117. Apollo 13 a metaphor for the economy says:

    Fed, Congress. We’ve got one more item
    for you, when you get a chance. We’d like you to stir up
    the economy with QE3

    Roger Congress, initiating QE3

    Okay, Washington, we’ve had a problem here.

    This is Congress. Say again please, Fed

    Congress, Fed, we’ve had a problem. We’ve had a
    main Bus B run over the economy.

    Roger, Fed. Copy that.

    Congress, and we had a pretty large bang associated
    with the caution and warning there. Also, gold is spiking.

    That jolt must have rocked the currency markets- see now – dollar value. It is oscillating down around 20 to 60 percent.

    Fed, this is Congress. Nothing to worry about, continue with the planned mission. If anything goes wrong, we will remember you fondly.

  118. Shore Guy says:

    Just a flesh wound?

  119. 3b says:

    #24 And canada has an ugly flag!!!

  120. yo'me says:

    US gave $30 Billion in foreign aid in 2010.How much is that equal to in 10 years? How much does it cost the tax payer to police the waters of europe and middle east.Protection we give to Japan,Israel,South Korea the list goes on.But we need to starve the beast in the US

  121. NJGator says:

    3b (27) – We’re gearing up for what might be our very last trip to East Orange on Monday.

  122. Double Down says:

    “Yeah I hate driving to LGA like everyone else but the disparity in prices
    in now obscene.”

    I believe LGA is ranked by airline pilots as one of the most dangerous airports in the world.

  123. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    This should do wonders for housing – From The Street:

    PMI Group Falls 54% on Shutdown Threat

  124. yo'me says:

    Geithner stays and the market tanks

  125. Punch My Ticket says:
  126. joyce says:

    so how low did the 10year yield go the last time… I think it was 2.06, right?

  127. gary says:

    DOW @ -370


  128. JJ says:

    NEWPAGE CORP SR SB NT 12.00000% 05/01/2013
    Basic Analytics
    Price (Ask) 3.500
    Yield to Worst (Ask) 447.264%

    I just had to post as you rarely see bonds at 447% interest. Cause as soon as they default it goes to zero.

  129. All Hype says:

    It did not take long for the markets to start crying for QE3. Wow!

  130. gary says:

    DOW down 400 and accelerating.

    BTW, the unemployment rate will be at least 9.4% tomorrow and you may very well see a negative number on job creation. I understand, though, that granite and stainless steel are solid hedge investments.

  131. BC Bob says:

    Gary [138],

    No worries, football is back.

  132. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Now where did I put my Dow 10,000 hat?

  133. 3b says:

    #29 NJ Gator: Brig on Hack has had 132 tax appeals this year to date, and 150 in 2010. Seems like a lot to me for a small town, where most of the rateables are SFH’s

    What exactly is the difference between a reevaluation, and a reassessment?

  134. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Are you ready for some football, meh

    Go PPT only – 360

  135. Mikeinwaiting says:

    You have to watch CNBC on a day like today, lots of laughs.

  136. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Gary if we get that 9.4 number that Dow 10000 crack I made will be prophetic.

  137. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Watching CNBC is liking watching the girly looking boy’s expression his first night in prison as the starting offensive line for the prison football team walks into the shared shower.

    It is going to be long painful and it is never going to be the same afterwards

  138. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Ket you have mail

  139. NJGator says:

    36 (141) – A revaluation requires physical inspections of all properties in town. A reassessment uses the data on property record cards (SF, lot size, condition, etc) from a previous revaluation and adjusts the assessments townwide to current market value.

    How many people live in Brig on the Hack? Montclair has a population of about 37,000, with about 10,000 properties (commercial and residential) and had 1,500 tax appeals this year.

  140. Fabius Maximus says:

    Mining asteroids is a nice dream and a good long term goal, but we need to look short term. Fold NASA into DOE and get them focusing on energy independance.

    High tech manuafaculuring is fine, but we are 60 years behind the far east and I don”t see Apple bringing iX manufacture back to these shores. The only way out of this is to leverage the size of gvmt consumption in favor of american manufacting. We see this in a small way with the Chevy Volt. The main customer for that will be goverment fleets. At $40K it will never compete in the general retail market. But if you focus on improving efficiencies, Gen 2 could be a comercial success. Drive the innovation forward so that when we swing around and can look long term. Projects today should have short term focus benefits with long term gains. Helping Brazil solve the issues of drilling for their offshore oil, can bring manufacturing jobs to the US, research tech that can be patented and used round the world and would lay the ground work for deep space mining.

  141. 3b says:

    #47 NJ Brig-on-Hack has around 11,000 residents, and around 4200 housing untis of whichj around 1100 to 1200 are apartments.

  142. 3b says:

    #45 Don’t worry, Larry K will put it all in perspective for us tonight. After all it is just a soft patch.

  143. 3b says:

    #44 Mike: I think it is quite possible that we do get that number.

  144. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    QE3 is a given, I want QE4. And to think I was worried I needed to start selling bonds and buying stocks just two weeks ago.

    The fun part will be if rates stay this low for several months, once MBS prepayments accelerate and munis and corps start getting called early, ouch, with 2 year near zero a 6% muni or 8% corporate getting called is awful painful. .

  145. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Tonight’s drinking game:

    You drink every time Kudlow says that the drop in oil prices will be like a tax break for the consumer.

  146. Kettle1^2 says:

    fabius 148

    short term thinking is what got us in this mess in the first place. We need to be thinking and acting 10 – 15 years out. Everything i mentioned could have been done in the 70’s and 80’s. In fact the plans were drawn up i have seen them first hand ( i have a relative who was part of NASA since apollo). The problem has always been short term thinking and the ever present ” but that will take 10 years”. if someone had the brass cohones to be a forward thinker then the operation would already be fully underway and producing for over a decade.

    At the end of the day if we want plentiful and relatively cheap resources (which is necessary for the continued exponential growth pattern our economy is currently based on) it wont be coming from earth when consumption is based on a global population in the billions.

  147. Kettle1^2 says:


    I am not holding up NASA as some panacea. Nasa has been broken since the at least the 80’s and has been little more then a combination of a political quagmire and aerospace jobs program that just happened to produce a little R&D on the side. Some great people, but terrible politics.

  148. A.West says:

    I’d rather see the equivalent of a $10/gal gas tax than put NASA/DOE in charge of a new government program to stimulate something. And extra $10/gal would stimulate a lot more real innovation than some new flavor of automotive Tang.

    Brazil is of course as protectionist as you are, and have already mandated that most investment into subsalt oil be done domestically, creating lots of boondoggles to be funded by Petrobras shareholders, and also guaranteeing that the projects come behind schedule.

    The only deep space mining the government will be doing is to the rectums of the American citizenry. The government would mine gold at a cost of $100,000 oz if there was a political constituency for it.

  149. I love the smell of .vix mixed into my morning stench of death.

  150. Juice Box says:

    NASA has been busy lately.

    Today they found really, really salty water on Mars.

  151. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    $10 dollar gas and they can rename it HUNTERDOOM

  152. Welcome to the Jackson Hole prelims.

    Gotta whip up that deflation scare. Watch the 10yr. go below 2.

  153. Libtard in the City says:

    I like the one with Starbucks better.

  154. make money says:

    On March 6th 2009, the SPX made its intraday low of 666. Gold on that day was $965. Thus, the S&P 500 bought .69 ounces of gold. Today, At the high of gold intraday today and the low of the S&P’s, the S&P 500 bought .72 ounces. Therefore, in gold terms and/or in REAL terms as opposed to NOMINAL, today’s action in the S&P 500 has us basically back to the March ’09 low.

    Who could have predicted this?lol

  155. Anon E. Moose says:

    Hey Sas3, what’s your take on this:

    “The trouble with this for the president’s supporters is that one cannot assert Obama is unable to govern effectively because of racism without conceding that he is unable to govern effectively. To put it mildly, that is not a strong argument in favor of re-electing him.”

  156. make money says:

    DOW:Shiny ration has a 6 handle. Wake me up when its 2:1.

  157. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Bloodbath looks like it may escalate into the close

  158. BC Bob says:

    Did Hank bring the bazooka to the bird sanctuary?

  159. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Russell 2000 close to 6% drop. Get that Helicopter going Benny.

  160. BC Bob says:

    Does Trichet have fat fingers?

  161. Dow down 512, I’m back at 1221 and the summer is coming to an end. Feels an awful lot like `08.

  162. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    At close:
    Dow minus 4.31%
    S&P minus 4.77%
    Nasdaq 5.07%
    Russ 2000 5.94%

  163. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    the last two are also minuses

  164. yo'me says:


  165. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    – 500

    forget re-election if I the dow goes 10K Chairman own better worry about assassins

    I see debt people

  166. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Don’t think you even have capitulation yet. The selling picked up once the circuit breakers were off. Tomorrow should be interesting.

  167. HOV down by almost %20 today @ $1.40. It was at $73 in `05.

  168. Libtard in the City says:

    We’ve got to get Wilson and tell him to sell.

  169. gary says:

    Moose [164],

    It’s not his fault. The dog ate his homework.

  170. freedy says:

    What time is Bojangles addressing the country?

  171. yo'me says:

    Can we cross 18,000 non farm tomorrow?Yes we can!!

  172. Al Mossberg says:


    The stench of death is so pervasive that it masks the stench of poo in the adult diaper I am wearing.

    I’ll be back later. I have to go vomit in fear.

  173. Al Mossberg says:

    So QE3 hints on Tuesday Aug 9th. Have to look for an entry point here.

  174. JJ says:

    Last five minutes I was buying, 50K in around five minutes. I rarely buy stock, but I can’t resist when blood is in streets.

    Oddly things like IVR which is a reit was droping with rest of stocks but it invests 100% in mortgages and mortgage bonds were up. That type of stuff I love to buy when the baby is being thrown out with bathwatter.

  175. Shore Guy says:

    From CNN e-mail. I have been up to my eyeballs in work and not paying attention. Dow 10k anyone?

    Stocks suffered the worst sell-off Thursday since the 2008 financial crisis. The Dow plunged more than 500 points on fears of a global economic slowdown.

    U.S. markets were already sharply lower on widespread worries, including the weak job market. But the selling gained momentum as Japanese and European policymakers stepped in with dramatic measures to shore up their financial markets.

    All three major indexes tumbled more than 4% Thursday and erased all their gains for the year. The indexes have also pushed into ‘correction’ territory – defined as a 10% drop from their highs earlier this year. Over the past 10 days alone, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq have dropped about 8%.

  176. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    I wonder if satire is going to reflect true life with Bernake tonight. Somebody find him in the bart and kick his a$$ out back when he gets drunk enough

  177. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    So at what time do they announce the emergency Fed meeting, Prez news conference or some other bs to talk things back up?

  178. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Vive le revolucion

    Oh bother

  179. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    When is Jackson Hole?

  180. JJ says:

    Good News all NFL season ticket bills were due last week. Way this market is going they might of had a ton of defaults by next week.

  181. JJ says:

    Isn’t Jackson Hole a bar in Greenwich Village?

  182. yo'me says:

    Futures going south

  183. BC Bob says:

    “So at what time do they announce the emergency Fed meeting”

    HE [187],

    Not sure what time, but they will announce that QE3 will continue to target stock prices. After all, higher stock prices will increase wealth, thereby boosting consumer confidence. Ultimately, this will increase spending, contributing to the green shoots recovery. Since the Dow was down 500 today, the fed will double down, dollar cost average. When all else fails, continue to do they know best; wash, rinse, repeat; pray for a different outcome.

    In other news, consumer confidence of those earning 100K/above is back to 11/9 levels. For some reason, they don’t share the fed’s enthusiasm?

  184. Juice Box says:

    Meh heading to the beach for the weekend. Enjoy folks!

  185. Al Mossberg says:

    Well there we have it.

    Best rate I see is 4.0, 30 year conforming, 400 in fees. Couple more days like this and I may get my number.

  186. Let’s see another equities bloodbath again tomorrow. Then, I will get interested.

    As in 2008 interested.

  187. Happy Renter says:

    Did someone say something about public sentiment reaching a low point already? Buckle your seat belts, folks …

  188. BklynHawk says:

    HOV = delisted, bankrupt? Looks like from their financials they lost about $135M last six months and have less than a year of cash on hand to cover.

  189. Al Mossberg says:

    Any predictions on tomorrows UE number?

  190. HOV will pull a 1:20 reverse split, then declare victory.

    This is the new Amerikan way.

  191. al (200)-

    we can predict with 100 certainty that the number will be a lie.

  192. make money says:


    After today, they’re going to lie a little extra.

  193. make money says:

    “The Depression [in the wake of the financial crisis] was temporarily interrupted by a bunch of stimulus which ultimately weakened the economy further,” says Schiff. He adds the government’s likely knee-jerk response of stimulating is, “probably going to be the fatal dose, the lethal dose” prior to “a complete economic collapse.”

    This guy has been spot on. better get your shiny.

  194. Al Mossberg says:

    Dow futures.

    DJIA INDEX 11,343.00 -28.00

    LMAO. “Lie back and embrace the oblivion. Let it wash over you. Dont fight it.”

    Meat 2008

  195. xmonger says:

    60 handle down move on the SPX, negative short term T bill yield…

    Nothing to see here folks. Please move along.

  196. Painhrtz - Cat of God says:
  197. Kettle1^2 says:


    I love band of brothers but that is a brutal scene

  198. 3b says:

    #202 Meat: A lie on the upside or downside??

  199. 3b says:

    Asia joining the route this evening.

  200. Shore Guy says:

    “In other news, consumer confidence of those earning 100K/above is back to 11/9 levels. For some reason, they don’t share the fed’s enthusiasm?”

    That is because those earning above that level tend to pay attention to what is going on and are not as easily duped.

  201. Al Mossberg says:



    More like this. The band played on but we are short on life boats. Hope you have your life jacket on. The water is mighty cold.

  202. Al Mossberg says:

    Nikkei 22508/05 – 10:17 9,305.38 -353.80 ( – 3.66%)

    Holy Fukushima!

  203. Al Mossberg says:


    Ill bank on a lie to the upside. The political groundwork is well underway. A little icing on the cake will give the Bernank a green light.

  204. 3b says:

    #212 Than I guess people in my town are below that level, because so many of them appear to be morons.

  205. Kettle1^2 says:

    Got your depends on?

    Larry Kudlow tweeted the following: “Sources tell me Italy has to restructure bonds.Deposit run on Italian banks.EU will have to mount Tarp rescue.Big stress on interbank loans.”

  206. Kettle1^2 says:

    Italy is done. Expect a nice fat ECB bailout this weekend. Take careful note of bullet point #3. Italy plans to issue debt in 2011 equivilent to 25% of it’s GDP!

    From the Telegraph:
    The truth about Italy:

    Morgan Stanley estimates net issuance should total 35 billion euros per year in 2012-2013, less than expect annual coupon payments of around €45 billion per year
    A total of €157 billion in Italian government paper will fall due by the end of the year. Redemptions will peak in September, when €46 billion of BTP CTX bonds mature
    Italy has raised €277.4 billion euros in debt so far in 2011, or 65.3% of its full-year target, the Treasury said – suggesting further issuance of €147.4 billion, according to Reuters calculations
    Italy’s public debt stood at €1,890 billion at the end of April, according to Bank of Italy figures. The public debt figure includes postal savings
    Italian government bonds and short-term bills totaled €1,583 billion at the end of June according to Italian Treasury data. Their average term was 7.09 years
    A one percentage point increase in Italy’s debt yields adds about €3 billion euros to interest payments in the first year, and twice that in the second, the Bank of Italy has said
    Italy forecast in April that 2011 debt servicing costs would total 4.8% of GDP, or about €77 billion
    The International Monetary Fund estimated in April that 47% of Italian 2010 government debt was held abroad. Morgan Stanley last week estimated foreign holdings at 44%
    Banks domiciled in Italy held €192 billion in Italian government securities at the end of May, Bank of Italy data showed last month. In the first quarter of 2011 they also held €589 billion euros in government securities on behalf of their clients
    European Banking Authority data showed in July that Italy’s five lending retail banks had a net direct exposure to Italian sovereign debt of €159 billion. Intesa Sanpaolo is the most exposed with €57.6 billion, followed by UniCredit with €47.5 billion
    Morgan Stanley said domestic banks and insurance companies could quite easily buy net €60 billion a year in Italian government debt for the next few years
    JP Morgan analysis said Italian banks will have to refinance €53 billion of maturing bonds in wholesale markets next year
    The €600 billion Italian pension fund and insurance industry has increased its holdings of domestic government bonds by 10% in the last three years to 32% of assets, according to JP Morgan
    Analysts estimate that an increase in the average cost of Italian public debt drives a similar rise in the cost of banks’ bond issues
    JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley analysts estimate Italian banks’ holdings of government bonds at around 6% of their assets – a higher figure than 5% for Spanish banks and second only within the euro zone to Greek banks’ 10%

  207. Kettle1^2 says:

    Note that the other pigs such as Spain are no better off and it’s simply a matter of the market having not called them out yet. Spain and the other pigs have similiar or worse numbers

  208. Al Mossberg says:


    Its coming here kettle. Its Russian roulette. If you have prepared you will be king.

  209. Kettle1^2 says:


    I take no pleasure in the ongoing and coming waves of destruction. We have been the architects of our own destruction. I only hope that this destruction gives rise to creation that may one day benefit my children.

    As has been the case for hundreds if not thousands of years, mans greatest weakness is our inability to grasp the implications of the exponential function.

  210. vodka (217)-

    I won’t be satisfied until I see Kudlow doing blow off his desk and body shots off Michelle Caruso.

  211. Kettle1^2 says:

    Al 220

    if you have prepared you will son be a target for those who failed to do so. Many of those who have prepared will fall before this is through.

  212. Was I just dreaming…or didn’t the EU announce about three weeks ago that they don’t have enough money, fiat, juice, pull, etc. to bail out Italy?

    Or, were they just pulling our leg?

  213. Al Mossberg says:


    The coming destruction was set in motion before you or I were born. If you can lay the seeds of liberty now then your grandkids will see you in the future as we see now see the men at Lexington and Concord. Unfortunately history is a lot longer than one persons life time. Most Americans cant see past the next election cycle.

    So yes. I welcome the upcoming horror because despite the sacrifice it will lay the seeds of liberty for my grandkids. The sooner it comes the better.

  214. Confused In NJ says:

    TRENTON — As speculation about how long Timothy Geithner will remain as U.S. Treasury secretary simmered today, former Gov. Jon Corzine’s name began to bubble up as a possible replacement.

    Corzine, considered for the nation’s top financial office after Obama was elected, has emerged on speculative short lists as someone who could take over if Geithner exited before the president’s first term expires.

  215. Kettle1^2 says:

    Al 225

    liberty must be earned in blood and defended without compromise. History tends to suggest that liberty is not mans natural condition. The seeds may be sown but whether they survive the coming winter abd blossom is a different question entirely

    May I suggest rob dougan and M-seven as excellent mood tracks for watching the world burn. “there’s only me” by dougan and “humanizing the machine” by M-seven are 2 personal favorites.

  216. Kettle1^2 says:

    Doom. Meat

    yes, they can’t fund both Greece and Italy. will Greece be forced out of the EU at point to fund Italy?

  217. Al Mossberg says:


    I have the same inclinations as you do, however, I, like yourself, have studied history. These fundamental changes take place over periods of time which extend beyond one persons lifetime. They may get a world government via world currency but that doesnt mean it will last. Unfortunately the best we can do is put our offspring in a better position unless our military gets on board.

  218. Kettle1^2 says:

    Well the split of the euro into euro north and euro south is coming along nicely. Abother 3 or 4 years and the currencies can be officially launched,

  219. Al Mossberg says:



    When voting check to make sure your candidate is not a member of the CFR. If he or she is then dont expect change.

  220. Kettle1^2 says:


    I agree with you on timelines.

  221. Kettle1^2 says:


    Harappa by ES Posthumus would also make a good sound track for watchingbtje world burn. Alrjough in more of a Pythagorean sense.

  222. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Asian markets getting hammered, not to worry ALL IS WELL!

  223. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Ket 227, this too shall pass. I am at peace with it.

  224. Deb says:

    yo’me, i lived in Europe for six years…the reason prices for consumer goods can be higher over there is that people do not have to worry AT ALL about paying for health care or education…take those two very big-ticket items off the table and yeah, they can afford to pay more for the little things…and have much greater peace of mind than most Americans, too!

  225. Reuben Swelt says:

    I got what you mean , thanks for putting up.Woh I am delighted to find this website through google. “The outcome of the war is in our hands the outcome of words is in the council.” by Homer.

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