Word of the day: Moribund

From the Federal Reserve:

Beige Book – October 19, 2011

Second District–New York

Economic growth in the Second District has remained modest since the last report, though there have been some signs of improvement in the labor market. Manufacturers report some further deterioration in their assessment of overall business conditions but note that orders, shipments and employment levels have been stable. Consumer spending, on the other hand, has been comparatively robust, despite low levels of consumer confidence: auto dealers report brisk business in August and September, non-auto retail contacts report that sales have been on or ahead of plan, and tourism activity has remained strong. Commercial real estate markets have been mixed but, on balance, slightly stronger since the last report. Home sales have been mixed, with scattered signs of a pickup, while the rental market has continued to strengthen. New home construction remains stalled, aside from rental apartments. There has been substantial new hotel development in Manhattan. Conditions in New York City’s key securities industry have weakened noticeably. Finally, bankers report a pickup in demand for residential mortgage loans (largely refinancing), a slight increase in demand for non-residential mortgages, some easing in credit standards for business loans, and little change in delinquency rates.

Construction and Real Estate

Residential construction remains moribund, particularly for single-family homes. Home sales have picked up a bit in parts of the District but remain weak overall, while the rental market has continued to strengthen. The housing market in northern New Jersey remains sluggish: with a dearth of new home construction, aside from some development of rental projects, the inventory of distressed properties has declined slightly but remains large; sales volume remains sluggish, and home prices have held steady and appear to have bottomed out. After a strong July and August, sales of Manhattan apartments tapered off in September; while co-op sales have been relatively sluggish, condominium sales have been buoyed by foreign buyers. The inventory of available newly-constructed condos has declined considerably in recent months but remains elevated. The lowering of the jumbo mortgage threshold from $730,000 to $625,500 on October 1st appears to have had little effect on the market. Overall, co-op and condo prices remain essentially flat. New York City’s rental market continues to strengthen. Net effective rents (which take into account landlord concessions that were prevalent a year ago but are now rare) are up roughly 5 percent from a year ago, with steeper increases at the high end of the market. Realtors in western New York State note that market conditions have improved slightly, with sales picking up and prices up slightly from a year ago.

Commercial real estate markets have been mixed since the last report. In New York City and metropolitan Buffalo, office vacancy rates declined in the third quarter, while rents moved up. However, vacancy rates rose in Westchester and Fairfield counties and were little changed across other parts of the District, while asking rents were generally down modestly. The market for industrial and warehouse space has not changed noticeably, except in metropolitan Albany and northern New Jersey, where asking rents are down moderately from a year ago. New office construction and development remains sluggish, but a number of major hotel development projects have been announced recently or are already underway in New York City.

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80 Responses to Word of the day: Moribund

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    More than 20,000 foreclosures in 2006 took 4 years to resell: CoreLogic

    More than 23,200 foreclosures in 2006 sat unsold until the second quarter of 2010 – more than four years later, according to a study from the data analytics firm.

    Analysts studied the destinations of more 355,000 properties that hit foreclosure auctions in 2006. Investors bought about one-third of them at the courthouse steps, and the remaining 233,000 went back onto lenders’ books as real estate owned.

    Of those, 90%, or 210,000 homes, sold as REO to third-party buyers. Of these, half took six months to sell and 21% took more than one year to unload.

    But 23,200 sat unsold for four years, CoreLogic found. These are properties that entered the foreclosure process before the system surpassed its maximum capacity in many states. REO sales have yet to peak, meaning the time banks and the U.S. government will have to hold these homes could go even longer.

    “It is well known that foreclosure and liquidation timelines have risen dramatically over the last few years. What is less known is how REO persistence, or REOs remaining unsold for extended periods of time, has changed over time,” CoreLogic said.

    What is known is that the longer the property sits, the more cash buyers end up with the property, often for steep discounts. For the 2006 REO that resold more the one year later, 55% went to cash investors, compared to 40% for the entire foreclosure stock that year.

  3. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Brookfield Sells Jersey City Tower for $378 Million

    Brookfield Office Properties Inc. has sold Newport Tower, a 36-story office building in Jersey City, N.J. for $377.5 million to Multi-Employer Property Trust, Brookfield announced today, in what is the company said is the largest single office building sale ever in the state.

  4. grim says:

    Snicker, maybe John was right. According to the Realtors renters are unstable criminals, have poorly educated children (probably illegitimate too), and are dirty.

    From the Record:

    Owners stay four times longer than renters

    Q: My husband and I are recently married. Our next step is to become first-time homebuyers, and we would like to buy in the northern part of the state. Where do you suggest we start?

    Gertrude M.


    A: Congratulations, Gertrude. Homeowners stay in their community four times longer than renters, and studies show that that stability helps prevent crime, improve childhood education and support neighborhood upkeep. In the northern part of the state, you will have a number of wonderful towns from which to choose.

  5. freedy says:


    buy a house ,get a Visa. Move to Paterson,Garfield, Lodi, Elizabeth,Camden?

  6. Shore Guy says:

    It looks like Gaddafi bought the farm in a NATO airstrike:


  7. grim says:

    5 – The required total spend would be $500k.

    It’ll be more like Ridgewood than Paterson.

  8. 3B says:

    #4 Hey!!! I am a drity renter, where is my tax subsidy.

  9. 3B says:

    RU From last night. The house across from TD bank has not closed yet.

  10. Mikeinwaiting says:

    The only way to save these over inflated prices is to have foreigners buy our homes.
    What happened to a home for workers here, yes this is a good idea. Let home prices correct to the level that with taxes they can be afforded, then they will sell. Pissing in the wind anyway, how many homes are they going to buy.

  11. Mikeinwaiting Aka "Dirty Renter" says:

    3b can I hijack “Dirty Renter” I have never changed my handle in four years but am tempted.

  12. Mikeinwaiting Aka "Dirty Renter" says:

    Grim 9 that should make the folks there very happy, they get diversity.

  13. funnelcloud says:

    freddy #5
    Selling the American dream to everybody but its citizens, Idea, Give all foreigners tax payer funded grants (Lets say 500K) for purchase of a home and property tax exemptions that American home buyers would not qualify for. Another scam by our lawmakers to screw the American public. See that stupid look on Chuckies face, What an arrogant ass. I’d like to hit him with a custard pie.

  14. Mikeinwaiting Aka "Dirty Renter" says:

    Owners stay four times longer, but they sure as h*ll would like to get out.

  15. Mikeinwaiting Aka "Dirty Renter" says:

    Chucky is a f**ken bought & payed for hack. Just for the record plenty of those on the other side to.

  16. 3B says:

    #12 Mike: Feel free!!! My second contribution to the blog Brigadoon and now dirty renter. Just so you know when using the phrase I also sometimes add loser, as in dirty renter loser.

  17. Mikeinwaiting Aka "Dirty Renter" says:

    Shore , whacked Gaddafi, what sort of gov or whom do we get now. Out of the frying pan into the fire. Better the devil you know.

  18. Mikeinwaiting Aka "Dirty Renter" says:

    Thanks 3b I do not think my handle pertains anymore, I am not waiting, I am not buying. Four to five more years as a dirty renter & I am out of this state. One more to get out of school.

  19. Mikeinwaiting Aka "Dirty Renter" says:

    Jobless claims:
    In the week ending October 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 403,000.


  20. Mikeinwaiting Aka "Dirty Renter" says:

    Half hour till existing home sales, O joy.

  21. Shore Guy says:

    “Mike in waiting to leave”

  22. chicagofinance says:

    I am a renter. The first step to recovery is to admit you have a problem.

    Also I pattern my habits after DSK. Shower once a week; use lots of cologne….if that makes me dirty…SO BE IT!

    grim says:
    October 20, 2011 at 6:18 am
    Snicker, maybe John was right. According to the Realtors renters are unstable criminals, have poorly educated children (probably illegitimate too), and are dirty.

  23. 3B says:

    #20 Mike Wait actually 3 things Unicorns too is mine!!! I understand what you are saying. I am not sure what we are doing sometimes, for now on hold. Cannot leave the state need to near Manhattan. Every time we think we know where we want to go, we one or both of us change our mind. If prices get low enough, to offset the insane taxes we could even decide to stay in the land of Unicorns. We have been here a long time, and it would just be easier all around. Who knows!!!

  24. JJ says:

    Don’t get me wrong, when I was in College I used to love the renter girls, easy targets, low self esteem. In fact a land baron like myself who was set to inherit 1/4 of a 40 by 100 3 bedroom house was quite a catch. The renter girls are also good as supermarkets, dental hygenists and rub and tug girls are needed in every town and the land owners would never allow their daughters in thoses professions.

    Only down side of renter girls is they usually have no car and parents have a really sad car. One renter girls Dad actually begged me for a ride in my “fancy” 13 year old Dodge with 80K miles as his 18 year old Chevy with 180K miles died.

  25. 3B says:

    #24 Chgo: Showering once a week is very European!!!

  26. california dreamin' says:

    california’s real estate bubble still going strong

    Real Estate,Tulips and the Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds

  27. chicagofinance says:

    replace the words sung “LIQUID GOLD” with “DIRTY RENTER”

  28. 3B says:

    #21 Mike: And the numbers form tow weeks ago were revised…….up. But Iam sure that was unexpected.

  29. chicagofinance says:

    the quote says everything you need to know about these naive chuckleheads….corporations evil, eh?

    A rain-soaked day did what the city couldn’t: clean out Zuccotti Park. Thin-skinned Occupy Wall Street protesters fled for cover as soon as the skies opened up yesterday.

    “I got drenched and got angry, so I went to a McDonald’s for breakfast,” said Rebecca Varner, 27, from South Carolina.

  30. Juice Box says:

    No Fly Zone for S&P and Moodys in Europe

    The European Commission is considering a possible ban on rating agencies from publishing their assessments of EU countries in difficulty, the Financial Times Deutschland reported today.

    The European Union’s commissioner for internal markets and services Michel Barnier has drawn up a draft proposal empowering the new European Securities and Markets Authority to “temporarily prohibit” agencies from publishing their analyses on a country’s solvency, the newspaper said.


  31. JJ says:

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Think it takes a million bucks to make it into the Top 1% of American taxpayers?

    Think again. Last year, it took just $343,927 to join that elite group, according to newly released statistics from the Internal Revenue Service.

  32. Mikeinwaiting Aka "Dirty Renter" says:

    Shore 23 good one.
    3b 30 Of course.
    3b 25 I am going to start looking for a job out of state middle of her senior year. I do not see price/tax numbers getting to a level I would buy in NJ. But as you say who knows, they could.

  33. 30 year realtor says:

    #2 – So 10% of the properties which became REO since 2006 are still REO. It would be reasonable to assume that this 10% is partly comprised of properties with title issues, tenancy issues and environmental issues. After 5 years these issues still could likely only account for about 1% of the total of foreclosed properties.

    My guess is that the balance of properties comprising the 10% figure are in disputed ownership. GSA’s ( FNMA/FHLMC) are always in dispute with lenders about who owns what after foreclosure. My guess is the bulk of these properties are disputes involving MBS. Also among these properties are the ones that cost more to sell than they are worth and nobody wants to be responsible.

    Ten percent is a massive figure. There is no possible justification for one in ten REO to fall through the cracks!

  34. Juice Box says:

    re: #33 – JJ in 2007 it was 550k. How the mighty have fallen. With an income of only 343k I would think you would have to pack a lunch every day, do your own laundry, cut your lawn and change the oil on the car yourself, and if you saved you might be able to afford a weeks vacation at LBI if you shared with other family members.

  35. gary says:

    Anything I wanted was a phone call away. Free cars. The keys to a dozen hideout flats all over the city. I bet twenty, thirty grand over a weekend and then I’d either blow the winnings in a week or go to the sharks to pay back the bookies. Didn’t matter. It didn’t mean anything. When I was broke, I’d go out and rob some more. We ran everything. We paid off cops. We paid off lawyers. We paid off judges. Everybody had their hands out. Everything was for the taking.

    Current day U.S. plutocracy or a movie?

  36. Mikeinwaiting Aka "Dirty Renter" says:

    Juice 23 And how do they think the bonds will perform then. LOLROF

  37. Juice Box says:

    re: Libya

    Look at the SUVs they have there, I wonder if it comes with Air Conditioning?


  38. Mikeinwaiting Aka "Dirty Renter" says:

    Existing home sales fall 3%, Prices Y/Y down 3.5%.

  39. Mikeinwaiting Aka "Dirty Renter" says:

    Philly fed knocks the cover of the ball up 8-9 % minus 8-9 expected.

  40. Mikeinwaiting Aka "Dirty Renter" says:

    * Overview
    * Banking & Financial Markets
    * Economists
    * Real-Time Data Research Center
    * Regional Economy
    Philly Fed: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/index.cfm

    Home > Research and Data > Regional Economy > Business Outlook Survey > October 2011
    October 2011 Business Outlook Survey

    Responses to the Business Outlook Survey this month suggest that regional manufacturing is showing signs of recovering, following several months of decline. The survey’s broad indicators for activity, shipments, and new orders recorded positive readings after two months in negative territory. Responding firms indicated that employment was slightly higher this month. The broadest indicator of future activity remained positive and showed marginal improvement over its reading last month.
    Indicators Suggest Improvement

    The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from -17.5 in September to 8.7, the first positive reading in three months (see Chart). The current new orders index paralleled the rise in the general activity index, increasing 19 points and returning to positive territory. The shipments index also recorded a positive reading, increasing from -22.8 in September to 13.6 this month.

    Labor market conditions improved only slightly this month. Nearly 18 percent of the firms reported an increase in employment, but 17 percent reported a decrease. The current employment index remained slightly positive but decreased 4 points from its reading in September. The average workweek index increased notably from -13.7 to 3.1. However, the percentage of firms reporting a longer workweek (15 percent) was only slightly greater than the percentage reporting a shorter one (12 percent).
    Prices for Manufactured Goods Are Near Steady

    The percentage of firms reporting decreases in prices for their manufactured goods (15 percent) was slightly higher than the percentage reporting price increases (12 percent) this month. The prices received diffusion index decreased from a reading just above zero last month to -2.5. The majority of firms (69 percent) reported steady prices for their own manufactured products in October.

    Increasing costs were, on balance, slightly less widespread this month compared to last month. The prices paid diffusion index decreased 3 points. Nearly 31 percent of firms reported paying higher prices for inputs this month, and 11 percent reported lower prices.
    Six-Month Indicators Improve

    Indicators for future activity remained positive and strengthened moderately this month. The broadest indicator of future activity improved, increasing 6 points, and is now at its highest reading in six months (see Chart). The indexes for future new orders and shipments also improved modestly, increasing 5 points and 2 points, respectively. The index for future employment paralleled the increase in other future indicators, rising 3 points. The percentage of firms expecting to increase employment over the next six months (25 percent) is higher than the percentage expecting to decrease employment (11 percent).

    For this month’s special questions, manufacturers were asked about changes in their workforce and the changing use of flexible workers over the past year (see Special Questions). The share of firms that increased their total workforce over the past year (46 percent) outnumbered those decreasing their workforce (24 percent), and the mix of employment has changed for many firms. For example, 74 percent of firms indicated that they used temporary or agency workers, and 36 percent of these firms indicated that they have increased the total share of these workers over the past year.

    According to respondents to the October Business Outlook Survey, the region’s manufacturing sector is recovering, following several months of decline. The survey’s current indicators suggest an overall increase in the demand for manufactured goods in October, and activity and shipments were reported to be higher. Firms were slightly more optimistic about future growth overall, with all of the survey’s future indicators showing improvement over their levels in Septembe

  41. Mikeinwaiting Aka "Dirty Renter" says:

    Existing Home Sales: -3% to 4.91M vs. 4.92M expected, 5.06M prior (revised). Inventory of unsold homes -2% to 3.48M; months supply 8.5. Median sales price -3.5% Y/Y to $165,400. “The volume of successful buyers is higher than a year ago and is remaining fairly stable – this speaks to an unfulfilled demand,” NAR’s Lawrence Yun says.

  42. Mikeinwaiting Aka "Dirty Renter" says:

    We have a new one “unfulfilled demand”.

  43. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [39] Juice

    “Look at the SUVs they have there, I wonder if it comes with Air Conditioning?

    It’s a homemade troop transport.

    Coming soon to a Nompound near you!

  44. 30 year realtor says:

    An unfulfilled demand for buyers!

  45. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [39] juice

    Note to self: Accumulate scrap steel plate and other metal at Nompound for eventual use in armoring vehicles.

  46. 3B says:

    #34 Mike: I work in Manhattan, spouse in north Bergen county, so we are limited, in what we can do. Plus always weighed down by paralysis by analysis so to speak. The thought of putting down a big chunk of money on a house again scares me. So we would do the minimum, and keep the cash.

  47. JJ says:

    343K with the high tax rate and AMT most people in the tri-state area with kids are already doing everything you mentioned. Hardest thing is the rich can no longer afford dog grooming and have to snip the matted hair from their Shih Tsus anus themselves.

    Juice Box says:
    October 20, 2011 at 9:59 am
    re: #33 – JJ in 2007 it was 550k. How the mighty have fallen. With an income of only 343k I would think you would have to pack a lunch every day, do your own laundry, cut your lawn and change the oil on the car yourself, and if you saved you might be able to afford a weeks vacation at LBI if you shared with other family members.

  48. Mikeinwaiting Aka "Dirty Renter" says:

    3b 48 I gather I am suffering from the same paralysis. Just can’t do the big chunk thing either dirty renter that I am.

  49. Mikeinwaiting Aka "Dirty Renter" says:

    30 year 46 LOL

  50. 3B says:

    #50 Mike: Yep. Thats why when I do do it, I will do the minimum, and keep my cash. I cannot believe I am even considering staying in the land of Unicorns!

  51. chicagofinance says:

    Bon Jovi’s new charity restaurant in Red Bank….

  52. Now that the skies are clear again, the stench of death is back.

  53. JJ says:

    Taxpayers will be able to set aside up to $17,000 in 401(k) accounts and other similar retirement plans in 2012, a $500 increase over this year, according to the Internal Revenue Service

  54. The Original NJ Expat says:

    Owners stay four times as long because the rent is free after you default. Who would move out of a free house?

  55. The Original NJ Expat says:

    Gadaffi had to go down, as will anyone else who dares make any noise about selling oil denominated in anything but US dollars. Genocide in non oil producing nations? Not really on our radar.

  56. Yeah. No oil in Darfur.

  57. Shore Guy says:

    “Showering once a week is very European!!!”

    Sounds profligate to me.

  58. Shore Guy says:


    It sounds familiar. Is that Goodfellas? I suppose it could be one of the party headquarters in any number of NJ communities but, it sounds like GF.

  59. Anon E. Moose says:

    Shore [60];

    Yeah, that was Henry Hill right before he started snorting his product.

  60. gary says:

    Absolutely everything in the movie Goodfellas can be applied to real life. Either somebody’s getting robbed, snookered, used, f*cked (literally and figuritively) or whacked.

  61. funnelcloud says:

    CNN has new video of Gadhafi . one less A**hole in the world tonight

  62. JJ says:

    But the plus side is when you can no longer afford electricity you can at least smell your way to the hole.

    Shore Guy says:
    October 20, 2011 at 11:58 am
    “Showering once a week is very European!!!”

    Sounds profligate to me.

  63. grim says:

    44-46 – Another term for pants up demand?

  64. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: a new place for you….Hooters knock-off…

  65. 30 year realtor says:

    Grim #65 – Pants up? To sell a house today a seller must drop their pants. Pants down demand.

  66. scribe says:

    Chi, #66

    There’s a Canz in Astoria. If you and JJ show up, drinks on me.

  67. 3B says:

    Anyone familiar with Single Premium Mortgage Insurance (grim/clot?)

  68. Dan says:

    Hey all, what’s your view on paying off a car in cash which would make you a little uncomfortable with the amount left in the bank account but more than enough to pay six months of living expenses or taking the dealer offered 2.9% over 5 years?

  69. 3B says:

    #70 Dan I would take the 2.9, and double up or more on the payments.

  70. Mike says:

    Shore 60 You think I’m a funny guy? Funny how? Like I’m here to amuse you?

  71. JJ says:

    That place is planning an IPO and to open a whole bunch more, much more classy that a hooters

    chicagofinance says:
    October 20, 2011 at 1:11 pm
    JJ: a new place for you….Hooters knock-off…

  72. grim says:

    Up! New thread.

  73. JJ says:

    Car loans to me are funny things. If you need a loan you can’t afford car.

    Dan says:
    October 20, 2011 at 1:34 pm
    Hey all, what’s your view on paying off a car in cash which would make you a little uncomfortable with the amount left in the bank account but more than enough to pay six months of living expenses or taking the dealer offered 2.9% over 5 years?

  74. Dan says:

    I can afford the car but wondering if at 2.9% over 5 years to let it float.

  75. The Original NJ Expat says:

    Car loans to me are funny things. If you need a loan you can’t afford car.

    I used to agree with this, if you don’t have $30K to buy a car, you shouldn’t be buying a $30K car. But lately, the low interest rates have worked their way into leases. I was in Dan’s shoes last month, we had the cash but the lease rate was so low and the residual buy out was also so low that it worked out like this: Pay $20K now for a $25k list car or pay $10K over 3.5 years with the option to buy for $11K in 3.5 years. So for nothing down and an extra grand over 3.5 years I have the option of keeping or punting depending on conditions down the road while not losing any liquidity now. About a week after we leased the car I talked to a coworker who is really good with his money and he told me he just did the same thing, signed his first car lease because he really couldn’t see a reason not to.

  76. The Original NJ Expat says:

    One more thing – leases vary by state law. In NY I believe you have to pay all of the sales tax up front whether you lease or buy, I don’t know about NJ. Here in MA you pay the sales tax as you go. Our payment is $222/month, that’s $209 payment + $13 sales tax/month.

  77. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (78) expat,

    If you are talking cars, you can pay tax monthly or up front. The NJ tax folks issued guidance on that point. But if you want monthly, you have to demand it as they will tell you otherwise.

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