No quick rebound for housing

From CNBC:

Housing Prices Won’t Recover Until 2013: Economists

U.S. home prices will stagnate through next year and only start recovering in 2013, according to economists polled by Reuters who also felt the stimulus options being floated will not do much to reinvigorate the market.

The housing market, considered by many as critical to any meaningful economic recovery, is still struggling to find its footing after collapsing by a third over the past several years, leaving many owing more than their homes are worth.

The poll of 27 analysts taken Nov. 17-22 was more downbeat than a survey taken two months ago, which predicted small home prices rises next year of less than 1 percent on average.

With an excess of unsold homes holding prices down and more foreclosures expected, lawmakers and experts have floated various options for propping up the market until the economy improves and Americans start buying homes again.

But most of the economists polled were sharply critical of two of the main proposals: more purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) by the U.S. Federal Reserve and a reduction in loan principal for struggling homeowners.

As well, 19 out of 26 who replied said prices could eventually recover without a major program to write down principal payments.

Opponents of such a scheme argue it would come with a hefty price tag, and such a measure would likely be politically sensitive heading into an election year.

Advocates say it’s the only way to head off another wave of foreclosures by keeping underwater borrowers in their homes and will speed up the recovery. Seven economists said house prices would not recover without a writedown plan.
“We see little prospect that any policy action will meaningfully impact the housing outlook over the next year,” said Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo.

“Unfortunately, a sustained improvement in housing will not likely get underway until the mountain of foreclosures is cleared and the price discovery process plays out.”

Home prices as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index are expected to finish out this year down 3.3 percent compared with the 3.8 percent decline forecast in the September’s poll.

But prices are seen slipping 0.3 percent next year compared to September’s forecast for a 0.8 percent gain. Prices are expected to rise a meagre 1.5 percent in 2013.

Eighteen economists said they see prices bottoming in 2012, with 12 of those expecting it will happen in the first half of the year. Just one economist each said a bottom won’t be found until 2013 and 2014, while 7 said it has already happened.

This entry was posted in Economics, Employment, Foreclosures, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

23 Responses to No quick rebound for housing

  1. Morpheus says:


  2. Mike says:

    why do home prices have to rise for a market recovery? oh so the people that could not afford to begin with will start spending. what if we sold quadruple the amount of houses from last year but at lower prices, is that not a recovery? principal write downs? Good idea just make sure whatever you are giving that guy I get back in some kind of tax break because I’m not underwater Mr. Obozo

  3. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  4. gary says:

    U.S. home prices will stagnate through next year and only start recovering in 2013, according to economists polled by Reuters who also felt the stimulus options being floated will not do much to reinvigorate the market.

    By the way, 16% or 309,000 houses in NJ are under water. So, explain to me again who’s selling and trading up to that house in Upper Haughtyville?

    Tick… tick… tick… tick…

  5. Confused in NJ says:

    12/21/2012 is market bottom.

  6. chicagofinance says:

    2013 is a bottom only if the wave of foreclosures in allowed to be cleaned out…..

    My vocation requires me to be apolitical, but I find it fascinating that Obama supporters cannot even be solicited into conversation at this point. It is almost a tacit admission that the President is FUBAR and they cannot make even a base level coherent defense of his stunning lack of achievement in office or even ambition to accomplish literally ANYTHING other than pertuating his seat.

  7. gary says:

    More than 200,000 jobs have been eliminated this year from the global financial-services industry; eclipsing the the 174,000 in 2009. Wait until you see what happens when the European debt crisis ramps up.

    In the immortal words of BC Bob: Sell? Sell to Whom?

    “This is something very different,” said Huw Jenkins former head of Investment Banking at UBS. Gee, you’re a f*cking genius, pal!! Don’t forget kids, stimulus all gone… went bye bye.

    5th inning folks…

  8. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Gary careful not to drown in the sea of wealth.

  9. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    I can’t believe that catch by Smith.

  10. cobbler says:

    There is no possible way the wave of foreclosures in the judicial states (including NJ) can be cleaned out in 1 year, no matter what the feds do.

  11. Comrade Nom Deplume says:


  12. gary says:


    I love the Patriots this week! ;)

  13. chicagofinance says:


    For the record…..that was the most piss poor day by a QB that ever threw 4TD’s…..also anybody got a safety or linebacker that can cover…..WTF?????

  14. Fabius maximus says:

    Cartoon Bears: The Uk economy is scre1wed

    Some nice points on UK tax policy. I really like the comment on pensions.
    “Its hard to gold plate a sh1t wage!”

  15. chi (7)-

    What no one will admit is that anarchy would actually be better than what we have now.

    Hell, after watching 60 Minutes tonight, you could make a great argument that Florida is presently in anarchy…and is a much more hopeful, not-so-bad place than many other Amerikan locales.

  16. gluteus (15)-

    You can’t polish a turd.

    Nor can Arsene Wanker ever win a big competition anymore.

  17. Fabius maximus says:

    #17 Clot

    I see you saved a point with another dodgy penalty. That’s twice this season. So I suppose you are riding that luck.

    So last week we qualified for next round of the Champions League, this week we have City in the League cup. Two things you don’t have to worry about.

    I really can’t wait for Mikey to announce your new shirt sponsor. Do you get V1rgin and instant ridicule or to match the new arena name?

  18. Fabius maximus says:

    #7 Chi,

    The FUBAR is on the other side. The Repubs at my Tday table were pining for Hillary.

    O has the economy in the toilet, the world going to black and he is strolling towards re-election. He is sitting back, raising cash, lots of dry powder waiting for the GOP to cough up their fur-ball. Mitt or Newt, what a choice!

  19. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Fab X 20 Yes, did see some Hillary pining also. The word was at least she is competent. Anyone but “O”is the mindset, I happen to agree.

  20. George Soros says:

    A better title:
    Housing Prices Won’t Recover Until 2113

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