From the Record:
N.J. housing market recovering, appraiser says
New Jersey’s housing market is recovering, and this spring’s home-selling season will be the liveliest in four years, appraiser Jeffrey Otteau said Monday.
“We are at a turning point in the housing market and the economy,” said Otteau, who tracks the statewide market from his office in East Brunswick and whose forecasts are widely followed. “The bounce in home sales [in January and February] is nothing short of astounding.” He said sales are up about 30 percent in the first two months of the year, compared with last year.
But that doesn’t mean sellers can hike their asking prices, Otteau said. With incomes flat and banks cautious about lending, buyers will be unwilling or unable to pay inflated prices, he said.
“Homes that are overpriced will not sell,” he said.
Otteau predicts that home prices will be flat this year, after falling almost 5 percent statewide last year, and will not return to their 2006 peaks until 2020.
…
Otteau said that Garden State home buying will be fueled this year by an energized job market, as well as more affordable home prices and mortgage rates below 4 percent. Average New Jersey home prices have fallen 26 percent from the market peak in 2006, and are back to 2003 levels, he said.There’s pent-up demand among potential buyers, who have waited four or five years because they were insecure about their jobs or worried that home prices would fall further, Otteau said. And rising rents mean that many households will soon decide it’s better to buy than rent.
But he warned: “This improvement is not a return to the market frenzy we saw back in 2005.”
And more than 16 percent of New Jersey homeowners are either in foreclosure or late on their mortgage payments, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That represents “a deep, dark hole” for the housing market, especially in rural and inner-city areas, Otteau said.
…
Foreclosures tend to sell at a steep discount – 20 percent to 30 percent less than similar properties, according to research. That tends to pull down values of neighboring properties.“Areas with large concentrations of foreclosures will see prices decline,” Otteau warned.
Bullshit. Otteau is a bought/paid for tool.
Any glimmer of light is the headlamp of an out-of-control freight train going 140 mph.
This will surely throw you into a drunken rage.. From the NYT:
The Appraisal – Securing an Apartment With Help From a Love Letter
David Motta and Michele Pagnotta met on 87th Street between Amsterdam and Columbus Avenues six years ago while they were out walking their dogs, Jake and Pancho. Slowly, after many walks, they started dating. A few years later, they were married.
“So through the dogs, the romance began,” Mr. Motta said.
It’s a cute story. And earlier this year, when they were one of several couples bidding on an apartment on West 89th Street, just two blocks away, they made sure the sellers knew a bit about it. They wrote the apartment and the neighborhood a love letter, and with the blessings of their brokers, Christopher Kromer and Nora Ariffin of Halstead Property, they sent the letter to the sellers.
“We said we met on 87th Street and we’re expecting our first child, we love your space and the way you’ve created it,” Mr. Motta said of their letter. “And it’s true; we loved it.”
They got the apartment.
A home might be someone’s most personal possession, but the process of buying and selling real estate is incredibly remote. So in a competitive bidding situation, some brokers recommend that buyers write a letter — part mash note, part college application essay — to the seller. It makes buyers seem more human than does a sterile pile of financial documents, and it can set them apart from the rest of the pack. Sometimes, it can even tip the scale in their favor.
“There was an offer that was $8,000 higher,” said Ivana Tagliamonte, a broker at Halstead Property, speaking of an East Village apartment she recently sold. But the lower bid came with a letter. Her sellers, she said, were put off by the higher bidder, who had a lot of demands, but it was the letter that finally sealed the deal.
“And $8,000 is a lot of money,” she said.
A letter will not bridge a $100,000 gap between bids, agents and brokers say, nor will it give you a leg up with developers selling new condominiums. (“Dear Mr. Trump: I love your buildings. I love your show. I love you.”) If the playing field is basically even, however, many brokers say letters can be very effective.
The Titantic’s course also turned. Not to worry, now is the best time to buy.
From the Stone Pony’s Web site:
Big concert announcement for the Paramount tomorrow at 5… Big concert announcement for the Paramount tomorrow at 5…
From Ritholtz:
Pending Home Sales, Permits, Starts & Completions
You guys keep on bottom calling — you’ll get it right eventually!
Grim,
When they do, they will emphasize hoe they got THAT call right and will promptly forget the 37 wrong calls.
The 37 wrong calls won’t matter when we’re roaming the country in armed packs.
That’s sort of like how that guy from fight club that blogs on zerohedge cheerleads for doom. Eventually the world will end and he can claim bragging rights.
Go eat a bag of Skittles, then.
Clot,
I popped in here to check things out on a Monday evening and just had to chuckle your unrelenting beating of the war drum. You don’t give a f*ck about the topic, time, day or page-hit count move the f*ck over, you’ve got a message to deliver and damn be anybody who stands in your way.
I particularly enjoy your love notes to Moose, including your earlier work today. I think I remember being present for the genesis of the beef but I’m not entirely sure. Can you remind me again how it all got started?
Oh hi there Mr. Meaty man! You are still not happy even after our hug?
Rejoyce! Great things are happening. In fact just today, a mugger in Jersey City that stole an old lady’s purse, gave it back to her with more money in it! Hooray!
Is is Jeff time again? Did we not turn the corner last year, and the year before? And so on, and so on?
Sundown Syndrome
Urban growth, Lower 9th Ward style:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/25/magazine/the-lower-ninth-ward-new-orleans.html
“We have snakes,” Mary Brock said. “Long, thick snakes. Kingsnakes, rattlesnakes.”
Brock was walking Pee Wee, a small, high-strung West Highland terrier who darted into the brush at the slightest provocation — a sudden breeze, shifting gravel, a tour bus rumbling down Caffin Avenue several blocks east. But Pee Wee had reason to be anxious. Brock was anxious. Most residents of the Lower Ninth Ward in New Orleans are anxious. “A lot of people in my little area died after Katrina,” Brock said. “Because of too much stress.” The most immediate sources of stress that October morning were the stray Rottweilers. Brock had seen packs of them in the wildly overgrown lots, prowling for food. Pee Wee, it seemed, had seen them, too. “I know they used to be pets because they are beautiful animals.” Brock corrected herself: “They were beautiful animals. When I first saw them, they were nice and clean — inside-the-house animals. But now they just look sad.”
The Lower Ninth has become a dumping ground for unwanted dogs and cats. People from all over the city take the Claiborne Avenue Bridge over the Industrial Canal, bounce along the fractured streets until they reach a suitably empty area and then toss the animals out of the car. But it’s not just pets. The neighborhood has become a dumping ground for many kinds of unwanted things. Contractors, rather than drive to the city dump in New Orleans East, sweep trailers full of construction debris onto the street. Auto shops, rather than pay the tire-disposal fee ($2 a tire), dump tires by the dozen. The tire problem has become so desperate that the city is debating changes to the law. (One humble suggestion: a $2 reward per tire.) You also see burned piles of household garbage, cotton-candy-pink tufts of insulation foam, turquoise PVC pipes, sodden couches tumescing like sea sponges and abandoned cars. Sometimes the cars contain bodies. In August, the police discovered an incinerated corpse in a white Dodge Charger that was left in the middle of an abandoned lot near the intersection of Choctaw and Law, two blocks from where Mary Brock was walking Pee Wee. Nobody knew how long the car had been there; it was concealed from the closest house, half a block away, by 12-foot-high grass. That entire stretch of Choctaw Street, for that matter, was no longer visible. It had been devoured by forest. Every housing plot on both sides of the street for two blocks, between Rocheblave and Law, was abandoned. Through the weeds, you could just make out a cross marking the spot where Brock’s neighbor had drowned.
It is misleading to talk about abandoned lots in the context of the Lower Ninth Ward. Vast sections of the neighborhood have been abandoned, so it’s often unclear where one property ends and the next begins. (An exception is the sliver of land on the neighborhood’s innermost edge, where Brad Pitt’s Make It Right Foundation has built 76 solar-paneled, pastel-hued homes — though this seems less a part of the neighborhood than a Special Economic Zone.) To visualize how the Lower Ninth looked in September — before the city’s most recent campaign to reclaim the neighborhood — you have to understand that it no longer resembled an urban, or even suburban environment. Where once there stood orderly rows of single-family homes with driveways and front yards, there was jungle. The vegetation had all sprouted since Katrina. Trees that did not exist before the storm are now 30 feet high.
The cartoonish pace of vegetation growth resembles something out of a Chia Pet commercial, but it is hardly surprising to New Orleanians long accustomed to roads warped by tree roots and yards invaded by weeds. The soil in the Lower Ninth is extraordinarily fertile, thanks to centuries of alluvial deposits from the Mississippi River, which forms the neighborhood’s southern boundary. From the river, the neighborhood descends, like a long ramp, down to an open-water, brackish marsh called Bayou Bienvenue. This back part of the neighborhood, which, at its lowest point, is four feet below sea level, was the most devastated by the storm and remains the least inhabited. Its population has decreased by 85 percent since 2000.
Many of the ruined buildings have been cleared away, and most of the old foundations are obscured. The inhabited lots, about one per city block, are the exception. With their dutifully trimmed lawns, upright fences and new construction, they stand out like teeth in a jack-o-lantern. But wilderness encroaches from all sides. “My neighbor just saw a little family of coons parading across the street,” said Don Porter, who lives south of Claiborne Avenue, in one of the more occupied areas of the neighborhood. There are four houses on his block, and only two are vacant. “And you see rabbit,” he said. “You see egrets. Pelicans.”
“A raccoon climbs on top of our roof,” said Terry Jacko, 23, who stood with his brother Terrence, 19, in the front yard of their Reynes Street house. “It’s huge. The first time I heard it, I thought it was a dude.”
“I saw a possum in the backyard the other day,” Terrence said. “Its teeth were about this big. I killed it with a stick. It was coming toward me, so I hit him. He just flipped over. I stayed inside after that.”
snip
What was that about doom?
“Don Porter, who lives south of Claiborne Avenue, in one of the more occupied areas of the neighborhood. There are four houses on his block, and only two are vacant. ”
Egads!
#11 zeiba
He’s been making his “they’ll be rioting in the streets by June” call, every year since 2007!
[11] zieba,
Funny thing is I know Meat and Moose. Both quite affable people, and I could easily see them drinking together at some bar, sharing a laugh until they revealed one another’s identities.
SCOTUS quote of the day
MR. LONG: Well, and, Justice Scalia, I mean, honestly, I can’t predict what would happen, but I would say that not all people who litigate about federal taxes are necessarily rational.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/74487_Page2.html#ixzz1qHQjgIcb
zieba (11)-
It all started when Moose was born with a pellet in the spot where his brain should’ve been.
gluteus (18)-
Please correct me if I’ve been wrong, but I’ll point to various provincial riots in China, the Arab Spring, Occupy and the annual car burning @rgies in Europe as evidence that my calls have been correct.
Or is it only doomsday when the riots reach the block where you live?
BTW, I think Bergkamp called the 4-4 draw last year “disgusting”.
Hey, Glute-
You and your OCD, plane-scared nancy boy Bergkamp can suck on this.
Boom boom Cheik!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yeiq0r9D3po
#22 Clot,
Yes you are wrong. When was the last year there was not a riot in Europe. French and Spanish teens have been rioting since the 60’s. Lots of race riots and while football may have improved, still plenty there as well. My hometown has riots every year since I was born. As for China, nothing new there. They moved away from the race and oppression riots of the 90’s and the working conditions riots have been there for years.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/27/AR2006012701588.html
Overall you can’t throw OWS into the mix as that has been downright peaceful.
#23 Clot
It’s like getting taunted by the Kansas City Royals.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02rL30zyVoQ
zieba [11];
Can you remind me again how it all got started?
When Clot threatened my life. Unexpectedly (in that Goebbels, MSM sense of the word; which is to say that it really wasn’t unexpected at all) I persist in living, notwithstanding.
Merely fantasizing about my violent suicide is Sr. Schizo’s small measure of ‘toning it down’, I suppose.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Home Prices Probably Fell at Slower Rate
Home prices in 20 U.S. cities probably fell at a slower pace in the year to January, another sign of stabilization in the residential real estate market, economists said before a report today.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities dropped 3.8 percent from January 2011, the smallest decline in three months, after decreasing 4 percent in the previous 12 months, according to the median forecast of 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Consumer confidence in March fell as gas prices climbed, another report may show.
Property values are steadying as an improving job market helps underpin home sales, allowing the industry that precipitated the last recession to contribute to growth this year. Nonetheless, the recovery in housing may be restrained by foreclosures that are putting more properties onto the market.
“We’re seeing some signs of stabilization in the housing market,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “Better employment is one of the things that is absolutely essential for housing activity to improve. We’re starting to see that.”
The S&P/Case-Shiller index, based on a three-month average, is due at 9 a.m. New York time. Survey estimates ranged from declines of 3.3 percent to 4.5 percent.
Not the bottom we were hoping for, from NJBIZ:
Housing index puts N.J.’s market near bottom
The health of New Jersey’s housing market ranks near the bottom in the nation, according to the Healthiest Housing Index from online loan marketplace LendingTree LLC.
The health of housing markets was based on seven criteria, according to LendingTree: the unemployment rate, foreclosure percentage, debt-to-income ratio, home ownership and vacancy, percentage past-due, loan-to-value ratio, and equity.
Still, Jeffrey G. Otteau, president of East Brunswick-based Otteau Valuation Group Inc., said the state’s economy has been recovering, and he expects New Jersey’s rankings to improve.
“Based upon long-term economic and housing data, New Jersey ranks as one of the weakest markets in the country,” Otteau said. “However, over the last seven months, economic growth has actually outpaced the rest of the nation, and the housing market has begun to recover.”
Otteau pointed to data released by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank showing economic indicators in New Jersey improved at a faster pace than for the nation overall, posting a 0.8 percent increase in the last quarter of 2011, compared to 0.7 percent nationally.
In the LendingTree index, New Jersey was 47 out of 49 geographies in the nation, ahead of only Florida and Nevada.
Found this under Grim’s link in 29. What kid of jobs are being created if this is the trend saving commercial RE with our 9% unemployment rate. You could not even pay taxes and utilities let alone a mortgage.
http://www.njbiz.com/article/20120326/NJBIZ01/120329869/0/enviro/Fitness-fast-food-help-hasten-commercial-real-estate-pace-
March 26. 2012 2:06PM
Fitness, fast food help hasten commercial real estate pace
By Melinda Caliendo
The first three months of the year have seen activity picking up in the commercial lease market, continuing a trend of decreased vacancy in the state that started in 2011.
According to the year-end survey put out today by The Goldstein Group, vacancy rates decreased to 7.9 percent in northern and central New Jersey at the end of last year, the lowest rates since January 2009.
Jason Pierson, president of Pierson Commercial Real Estate said fitness and food companies are leading the way in leasing.
“There’s a lot of activity, it seems everyone is very positive about the market in general, and there’s a lot of locals and regionals that are looking now,” Pierson said. “There’s less concessions being given by landlords … and I think you’re going to see market rates increasing due to the increased level of competition. But I’ve also seen it takes longer to get deals done.”
Pierson said fitness centers that lease from 3,000 to 15,000 square feet are the most active searchers for space. Included in the fitness mix are wellness centers, sponsored by hospitals. Pierson said Robert Wood Johnson and CentraState hospital systems are among the most active in opening these facilities in Central Jersey.
Among restaurants, fast-food chains such as White Castle and Wendy’s are actively looking to lease in the state, as well as multiple fast-casual burger chains and sit down restaurants like Bonefish Grill and Red Robin.
According to the Goldstein survey, decreasing new construction has helped steady the vacancy rate, while national retailers like Home Goods, Harbor Freight & Tool and Hobby Lobby are entering the state.
Goldstein also reported an increase in the number of doctors and dentists opening locations in shopping centers. Earlier this month, Valley Health System opened a new urgent care facility in a Wayne shopping center.
“In Central Jersey you’re not seeing it as much — it’s more northern New Jersey, and they’re in-filling a lot of larger spaces,” Pierson said, adding that rehabilitation services also are in the leasing market.
Mike – How are you not overjoyed?
1) The other day someone brought up teen/young adult unemployment as being a critical issue. So, here we go, these are perfect jobs for unskilled labor. Problem solved. We’ve gone from retail closures being the headline to retail openings. We’re also likely replacing storefronts like with like, so this doesn’t represent a shift in the mix of jobs.
2) Someone else brought up obesity in America, more health clubs, less fat people. Problem solved. Maybe this comment was a bit tongue in cheek, but I’ve noticed the trend anecdotally. Tons of LA Fitness, Planet Fitness, and others. All packed after work, even a year after opening or longer. Clearly there is demand here. Maybe we’re turning the corner or a great new trend here?
3) It’s hard to spin a decline in commercial and retail vacancies as a negative based on the types of businesses leasing. Boeing and Google aren’t renting strip mall space. So, is there any “good” retail tenant? Apple? Abercrombie? Neiman Marcus? Does it matter? We’ve got businesses investing and expanding in-state, clearly they are seeing revenues and demand to justify it. Nobody is investing or expanding these days based on predictions or hope. Companies have been sitting on piles of cash, it’s good to start seeing them spend.
4) Probably the most interesting is the trend towards retailization of medical care. Can they provide a lower cost service over the ER? As long as this results in reduced medical spending overall, I’m all for it.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46865830/ Lennar: Profit falls but beats
31 – grim, I’d like to suggest reading this recent article by Quinn before I’d put faith in corporate expansion being a sign of strong demand instead of just a rudderless corporate model that knows nothing else.
http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=30405
22 – Clot – OWS was the big attempt. And it failed miserably. Idiots believed that somehow their “movement” could achieve something without leadership and organization. So, they sat in a park, bitched, and played drums, mostly because none of them had anything else better to do. Their fractured dis-organization and anarchistic approach did nothing but emphasize their lack of message and drive confusion as splinter groups (motivated by other goals) popped up under the same banner.
Still, to this day, I have no idea what the purpose or goals of OWS was, or what they actually accomplished. If you put me on the spot, I’d say they were really just hoping they’d get a bailout too, but they failed. (Save me the bullsh!t about raising awareness)
Whitecastle manager salary
$43,000-$46,000
$1430-$1550 bonus
http://www.glassdoor.com/Salary/White-Castle-General-Manager-Salaries-E5232_D_KO13,28.htm
Wendys avg manager salary
$33,000/yr
Wendy’s General Manager
$56,000/yr
http://www.simplyhired.com/a/salary/search/q-Wendy's+Manager
Bonefish Grill Manager avg salary
$40,306/yr
$9,598 Bonus
http://www.glassdoor.com/Salary/Bonefish-Grill-Manager-Salaries-E123306_D_KO15,22.htm
Red Robin Assistant General Manager Salary
$51,200/yr
$8,000 cash bonus
$1000 stock bonus
http://www.glassdoor.com/Salary/Red-Robin-Assistant-General-Manager-Salaries-E14609_D_KO10,35.htm
Grim, please unmod my post…thanks
Grim not to get into a tit for tat but,
1. These jobs are not being taken by children unfortunately.
2. “Among restaurants, fast-food chains such as White Castle and Wendy’s are actively looking to lease in the state, as well as multiple fast-casual burger chains and sit down restaurants like Bonefish Grill and Red Robin.”
Enough said there.
3. Do not disagree those are the type of businesses that take that space. I will be overjoyed when companies like Boeing and Google come to NJ. I will be waiting a long time.
4. Urgent cares and the like, good thing. Wife worked in one for five years, health care job with no health benefits.
P.S. I am however overjoyed at the prospect of more White Castles. Once in blue moon just gotta have one. Grew up with one in my town, brings you back.
http://www.homes.com/listing/161932911/70_Surrey_Lane_TENAFLY_NJ_07670
For you tenafly types
Brian 35 These are tough jobs that have to deal directly with the public and probably employees with a big turnover. I would feel safest at the White Castle since there’s bullet proof Lexan going up to the ceiling like the banks
And I haven’t even started on the benefits like discounts on the dollar menu. Delicious!
Today’s discussion is making me so hungry…..
41.Mike says:
March 27, 2012 at 8:53 am
Brian 35 These are tough jobs that have to deal directly with the public and probably employees with a big turnover. I would feel safest at the White Castle since there’s bullet proof Lexan going up to the ceiling like the banks
When Glen Rock is renamed to West Mogadishu, we’ll know that housing here has bottomed.
Bot-spam……………YES!
22 – Clot – OWS was the big attempt.
OWS could likely just be the start. If one follows the legislation/power grab that has been going on the last year by our executive/legislative branches, it would suggest they are expecting bad times ahead. That’s my deduction. Ask Eric Holder. Due Process…what’s that?
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20120325/SUB/303259981
Hudson City Savings , problem bank
“probably employees with a big turnover”
that would go perfect with coffee for breakfast. MMMMM. I hope it’s an apple turnover.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303404704577307300388803654.html
Ben : Please call your office Housing Prices are dropping and it spring selling season
Hey Grim,
How does this article square with the one you posted?
http://www.gayapolis.com/news/artdisplay-realestate.php?artid=14704
Right now JJ is getting humped by a Dolphin at the Atlantis Resort.
[46] freedy,
They got recommended by Cramer. That’s like the SI Curse.
[51]
Huh? You’re mistaken. JJ is humping a mermaid right now. And it isn’t cheating cuz she’s half fish.
The health of New Jersey’s housing market ranks near the bottom in the nation, according to the Healthiest Housing Index from online loan marketplace LendingTree LLC.
The health of housing markets was based on seven criteria, according to LendingTree: the unemployment rate, foreclosure percentage, debt-to-income ratio, home ownership and vacancy, percentage past-due, loan-to-value ratio, and equity.
No mention of the kill shot: property taxes. Prices here have another 15% to 20% decline yet to happen.
Brain I have worked as a GM for national food chain, six days a week ten hours a day, every weekend. You have no idea, turnover insane and that is not the worst of it.
“Home Prices decline 3.8% yoy”
Say you bought a house Jan 2011, you have already lost 3.8% in “value”.
Plus you have already paid out 4.5% in interest on the loan borrowed.
So approximately you are out of the money by 10% in one year.
For an average 500K house in NJ, that is about 50K that some one has “lost”.
If it takes 1 year of work to save 50K (more like 2 years), that means all the work you have you done over the past year is wasted. ie..whatever you saved, you lost it on the other other end of the housing drain.
But Gary: The towns have cut to the bone. Ask the council members and town employees , they will tell you how hard the work is . Besides you have to talk to the people who live in the town. What a bummer
Tuesday, March 27, 9:02 AM Jan. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: flat M/M vs. -0.5% prior. -3.8% Y/Y in-line with expectation, -4.0% prior.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-03-27/bidding-wars-erupt-as-u-dot-s-dot-supply-of-homes-for-sale-falls
Zack 56 Thats gotta hurt, except for JJ 50k is a mere bag of shells to him!
freedy [57],
When you’re held hostage by a monopoly, the only alternative is to revolt.
Ah yeah I love it when you misspell my name. So clever.
Yes I have worked in retail. The customers who were unreasonable rude jerks always stand out in my mind. Part of the job.
When my old neighbor graduated from college, her first job was working in a Taco Bell as a manager. People make fun of fast food employees but she was, in fact, working as a manager for Pepsico. She worked here way up in the company all while having children, paying a mortgage, etc. Last I heard from her she switched jobs.
55.Mikeinwaiting says:
March 27, 2012 at 10:00 am
Brain I have worked as a GM for national food chain, six days a week ten hours a day, every weekend. You have no idea, turnover insane and that is not the worst of it.
News on the job front: Absolutely nothing in the IT/financial world except temp positions unless you’re very highly specialized. I speak to recruiters and head hunters all day long. Full time and permanent opportunities will not exist, despite the constant turnover and lack of cohesiveness.
We had a guy (H1 work visa) announce on 5:00 PM this past Friday that he won’t be back on Monday. As long as upper managers secure their positions, they will not spit to give a bird a drink. They do not see the downside to an unstable environment nor care about the pain inflicted during the long ramp-up process. Case in point: I sit in a cube, 30 feet away from the CIO for 8 months now. And for 8 months, he’s walked by my cube and still has not introduced himself to me. Back to Real Estate…
Otteau said that Garden State home buying will be fueled this year by an energized job market, as well as more affordable home prices and mortgage rates below 4 percent. Average New Jersey home prices have fallen 26 percent from the market peak in 2006, and are back to 2003 levels, he said.
Otteau, this line needs to be added: “And since property taxes have doubled since 2003, house prices will fall to 1996 prices within the next few years.”
#47 Brian
Is that a lukewarm American turnover with a label that says “Caution Hot!” Or is it a rest of the world, no label required McDs apple pie that’s so hot its very aroma will sear your lungs and that will inflict sweet molten sugarry second degree burns on your mouth?
When is lunch?
gary #63: And if you are older, forget it. My DH yesterday had a recruiter go fishing for his age and when DH told him that since recruiter is obviously trying to find out his age, well, he’s over 50. Recruiter: I have nothing for you, then.
They don’t even try to hide it anymore.
Jill [67],
He just needs to keep looking. I’m in the same age range. I don’t know if it’s hampered me but maybe I’m naive. I do seem to get at least some action but they’re all temp positions. If I get to an interview, more times than not I nail it. The age thing is a factor, unfortunately. I know. Tell your DH to just keep looking.
The housing market started off the new year with a thud. Home prices dropped for the fifth consecutive month in January, reaching their lowest point since the end of 2002.
The average home sold in that month lost 0.8% of its value, compared with a month earlier, and prices were down 3.8% from 12 months earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major markets.
Home prices have fallen a whopping 34.4% from the peak set in July, 2006.
Except here, of course, because we’re prestigious.
I had better luck without the recruiter. Found openings through dice.com or monster.com or going directly to company websites.
Brian [70],
I had an interview two weeks ago going direct through Dice. I agree. All avenues are being explored.
Maybe I’m wrong but I just never felt like the recruiter had my best interests in mind.
Job searching sucks though. Tough to stay detirmined. You feel like you’re constantly being judged. I don’t miss it.
Zach [56];
What do you think real inflation was during that year?
Brian,
The recruiters could care less if you’re dead or alive. They just want to fill the opening and collect.
I bought shares of an S&P 500 fund when the index was around 800. Shortly thereafter, it dipped below 700. It sucked at the time. Today it’s at over 1400. Now, I don’t feel so bad.
Maybe sombody needing a place to live might look at home purchase more like a place to live and less like an investment. Did the person in your example lock into a one year mortgage?
Looking forward to everyone’s sarcastic doomsday replies! :)
56.Zack says:
March 27, 2012 at 10:00 am
“Home Prices decline 3.8% yoy”
Say you bought a house Jan 2011, you have already lost 3.8% in “value”.
Plus you have already paid out 4.5% in interest on the loan borrowed.
So approximately you are out of the money by 10% in one year.
For an average 500K house in NJ, that is about 50K that some one has “lost”.
If it takes 1 year of work to save 50K (more like 2 years), that means all the work you have you done over the past year is wasted. ie..whatever you saved, you lost it on the other other end of the housing drain.
Late night pillow talk with the missus turned to housing. Because of currently existing personal (her cloudy employment picture) and financial (what we consider an undue tax burden) reasons we’ve decided to slip a note under my absentee neighbors door this week to see if we can extend the stay in our co-op building for two more years. She was recently relocated to FL longer-term to oversee a project (it’s a heartwarming story of outsourcing to India) and has been trying to either rent or sell her place to stop the bleeding that comes with paying mortgage and maintenance on a luxury apartment she cannot not use. However, selling the place has been tough because her marina/river facing facade has some water issues which the board refuses to remedy. I’ve also learned that because of this issue, she is not on the best terms with the co-op board and I know that bagging a board (pre)approved applicant should be a plus for her. I’ll drop a note and we’ll see where it leads to. The possibility of moving from B line to C line, getting an extra bedroom, Hudson facing terrace and all the bubble era accoutrements, while sidestepping crushing NJ taxes and property maintenance is giving me a woody. Point me in the direction of the vidalias please!
Also, as I may have mentioned, my current LL is in Florida trying to salvage a purchase she made there and my prospective LL is bleeding and probably susceptible to low ball offers….it’s like one cautionary tale after another out there. The missus and I have always prided ourselves on being prudent, scavenger types.
Truthfully, the idea of paying taxes approaching 10K/yr for the privilege of bitching about it around a BBQ grill come summertime is looking less and less appealing. Once bitten, twice shy I guess.
Banged a Dolphin and a Mermaid but I said no way to the Merman.
I like hiring candidates through Dice, my catchphrase is NO DICE.
There is a lot of resistance to hiring older folks for entry level jobs. Trouble is you can hire you age very well in the social media age. No picture or dates on Linkin and people assume the worst. The resumes with consolidated work histories are also funny. Main issue is staff jobs are geared towards under 30 crowd who will work cheaper, work longer hours, have no kids, wont call in sick a lot and dont have elder care or child care issue. Basically Boss goes theres the cube work, if you do a good job for a few years I will promote you if not you will leave.
Hire a guy who is 54 with two kids in HS and one kid in college, a stay at home wife, big mortgage and elder parents or inlaws to take care of on a job requiring a long commute like in the city and possible health issues and he is just seeking one of two things if he takes a job beneath him. 1. A life vest to get back to work in hopes of pushing you asap to promote him or give him more money. 2. A desk or cube to ride it out to 65 putting in 9-5 hours. But will he be happy? Most likely not.
The boss of department is most likely 45 and has his own young kids, school plays, vacations, to go on and he wants staff to cover for him.
Most jobs over 50 people get are due to luck, desperate company, you have amazing resume or you know someone.
Meanwhile someone in the sweetspot. (We all were in sweet spot once). 2-5 years out of school, experienced but still cheap. professional looking, well mannered, lives in the city or near city with short commute single or newly engaged can often land a job with employee thinking you know what I can teach what they need to know. Staff as when I was in public accounting was young for a reason. I worked till ten pm, I had to come in weekends, I traveled on a moments notice. While Partners left early for Hamptons house or golf, of kids play, or sick wife or sick child. They earned the right. Staff were all single young people 21-27 who wanted to work and work was their life.
Now when you go to Germany, Canada, Japan and even other parts of US. People of all ages do all level of jobs. 40 year old men in Burger king, 50 year old clerks, there is no assumption on age. There is only an assumption if you dont make executive level by a certain age you will be stuck at staff forever. But in the New York City area it is still very much Up or Out. I know at the white shoe, white collar top notch companies such as GS, PwC, MS, JPMorgan unless you are on fast track by 30 the clock is ticking by 40 you are in the chopping block and by 50 you are long gone. Every year brighter younger faster kids who will work come out of school.
Let me give you the Big 4 speech I got when I was one of 500 staff members promoted to Manager. In a ballroom in Florida the head of Big four firm had all 500 of us stand up and had us applaud how we were the 500 smartest and brightest staff in the whole company. Then he had all of us sit down except one section. He then goes here are the cold hard facts. Within next 5 years 90% of you will either be fired or quit. The 10% remaining will be our superstars who will go on to Partner. Now to you people standing the quicker you can take out your competition and get them out of here the better. The 10% will become millionaires while the other 90% will be out the door. Now lets enjoy this week and come Monday it is game time.
Where does a 50 year old staff person fit in. Most big four firms have a rule you cant make partner after 50. It takes ten years min to make Partner so a staff member has to be under 40. Since it is up or out you cant stay. The hours are brutal as you have a 10% chance at hitting it big. The older workers at Chase, PwC or Goldman are expected to work like a dog like younger people, but there is no 10% chance on being a millionaire.
Funny when I made Director at the Big 4 firm there was no speech. I just got you already took out most of your competition just take out the rest. Remember up or out. I took out half the Directors before I moved on winning was like Mad Max and the Hungry Games all together. People would have gladly boiled you and made soup out of you. I had seen women having affairs with Partners. Marrying Partners, young cute male staffers even doing male Partners. Going to BBQs on Sunday at Partners house you hate, traveling to China for one year engagements with 100 hour work weeks. you name it. Heck I flew 23 times in the weeks after 9/11 and earned some street creed. Heck once I held onto my check for a huge engagement and copied it before client forward it to ar.
Sadly Wall Street, Accounting, IT, Consulting, Hedgefunds, Banking, Law Firms are all based on Churn and Burn and Up and Out. This makes job hunteing at over 50 hard.
Non profits, govt work, churchs universities, insurance, japanese companies like over 50, but they dont pay as much.
gary says:
March 27, 2012 at 10:58 am
Brian [70],
I had an interview two weeks ago going direct through Dice. I agree. All avenues are being explored.
Just a warning if you impregnate a murmaid, it is like the seahorses. The male has to carry the babies.
Brian [72];
They don’t. The employee is not their client, the employer is. The employee is the product. They don’t care about finding the employee a good job, just making a placement and cashing the commission check (quick hit, get paid now, no consideration of long term consequences or repercussions for malfeasance — I wonder what other industry meets that description… but I digress); and it need not be you, it can be any of the candidates the recruiter is submitting for the position.
Brian 66 I”ll buy you fly. Take a Burger King Whopper, McDonald’s Fries, Wendy’s Chili and a White Castle Chocalate Shake. Thank You
Redux [79];
The employee is the product.
Actually more like the raw material. Live poultry in the Caribbean markets tend not to serve their purchasers in the same state as they are found in the store.
Moose [79],
Recruiters are ex house tour guides and vice versa.
Also I personally find HH candidates a lot of work. They do attract better resumes and people but issue is threefold.
1) How do I know candate is even interested in job, maybe HH talked him into interview or HH was cold calling people and got someone willing to go on an interview. Sometimes these people cancel interviews or turn down job offer.
2) I have to pay a fee. I hate paying a fee
3) is candidate to lazy to apply for the job. If a job is advertised heavily on-line and then candidate comes in and says it is my dream company and my dream job how come he did not apply for it himself.
4) I have to deal with HH bs on salary. In this case HH person is only working for himself in driving up commision .
A direct hire candiate I have no fee. I know they are interested as they spent time and effort to directly apply, no one presurred them to apply. I also can eye to eye work out a salary and finally I could give them a signing bonus if necessary with HH fee I saved. Also if they quit on me in one year I am not screwed on fee.
Anon E. Moose says:
March 27, 2012 at 11:42 am
Brian [72];
They don’t. The employee is not their client, the employer is. The employee is the product. They don’t care about finding the employee a good job, just making a placement and cashing the commission check (quick hit, get paid now, no consideration of long term consequences or repercussions for malfeasance — I wonder what other industry meets that description… but I digress); and it need not be you, it can be any of the candidates the recruiter is submitting for the position.
Low cup blouses and willingness to buy you cups of coffee at starbucks and giggle at bad jokes appear to be main qualification
gary says:
March 27, 2012 at 11:46 am
Moose [79],
Recruiters are ex house tour guides and vice versa.
Who does this Otteau guy think he’s kidding. He completely ignored the weather factor.
mikey (37)-
Just flatten a small rat, then fry it.
“I am however overjoyed at the prospect of more White Castles. Once in blue moon just gotta have one.”
The guy next door to our office was a headhunter. Last Friday afternoon on my way out we got to chatting over some BS topic which turned into a one hour long chat about his trade. I found it extremely informative as I enjoy learning from those who know more than I.
From what I gather the higher up you go on the corporate ladder the service you receive is exponentially more personal. He used to place fortune 500 executives and such positions warranted face to face interaction. He said he knew within 30 seconds of the meeting whether the guy was a go or not the rest of the hour was just idle chat to justify his fee. At that level he was also able to guarantee his placements for a two year period.
Maybe I should be a recruiter? If I keep eating all of this fast food, I’m going to need a bra soon. Would that work?
84.Brass Balls says:
March 27, 2012 at 11:51 am
Low cup blouses and willingness to buy you cups of coffee at starbucks and giggle at bad jokes appear to be main qualification
gary says:
March 27, 2012 at 11:46 am
Moose [79],
Recruiters are ex house tour guides and vice versa.
Only thing I know that makes ladies parts grow are toliet paper. After 30 or 40 years of a women using toliet paper it makes their butts huge.
Brian says:
March 27, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Maybe I should be a recruiter? If I keep eating all of this fast food, I’m going to need a bra soon. Would that work?
“Banged a Dolphin”
Which one?
http://www.miamidolphins.com/team/player-roster.html
Now aggravated pimping charges for Strauss-Kahn?
This really is Stanley Kubrick’s Eyes Wide Shut.
http://www.miamidolphinscheerleaders.net/
Obama: “Tell my man Vladimir I’ll hook him up yo after I dupe the masses one more time.”
Just saying.
Pent up demand???? LMFAO!
They have been trotting that line out since 2006. Perhaps there’s “pant up” demand for a nice helping of BLU-96’s (http://youtu.be/EpGQ-2hMjN4) rained down upon the blight of toxic Chinese dry wall, formaldehyde plywood and faux finish crapshacks that are NJ RE.
I guess the mythical sea of wealth must have been held in Greek bonds
NJ RE is like watching a old timer junkie searching for one last collapsed vein.
The Red Sox piece I’ve read since the Subway Series “Who shot my dog more?”
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7739030/a-nervous-exchange-red-sox-e-mails
#96 redux
shoud be “The best Red Sox piece”
95 -for “pant up” demand, see JJ
No more sand for you in LBI.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/03/appeals_panel_awards_harvey_ce.html
Gary @ 64
Stop being delusional, 1996 levels?! The only booming growth in NJ is the low income teat sucking parasite population and entitled boomer retiree on government pensions.
1996 assumes you have something besides a bazilified socioeconomic environment.
But don’t worry there will be a boom in personal security services for the wealth.
The ghost man is really anrgry! He needs a hug! This sounds like a job for CAPTAIN SUNSHINE! Up up and away!
Is Capt Sunshine the current incarnation of Capt Cheapo?
Ghost [101],
Ahh.. yes. The polar ends of the spectrum and the vast nothingness occupying the center. You are absolutely right!
Juice [100];
From the piece:
the borough’s real estate expert, as he did in the other cases, said the loss was worth $300.
Judges may not be real estate experts, but they typically don’t react kindly to having their intelligence insulted. $300 won’t buy one night in-season for an oceanfront LBI rental – he’s supposed to believe that amount is appropriate decrease in property value? Town got what was comming to them for being stupid/greedy. In fact they got what usually comes to stupid/greedy people — much like the “sellers” I see sitting on properties for years on end at wish-league asking prices.
[JJ, here’s the setup]
“Brass Balls says:
March 27, 2012 at 1:43 pm
http://www.miamidolphinscheerleaders.net/
JJ. Which one?
[97]
The Capt. Cheapo I know would be violently retching all over his keyboard while trying to type Capt. Sunshine’s posts. So no.
re: #105 – Moose they will now have to stop the project.
FYI that house was built way back in 1973 and sold last for 181k in 1981, and it is now worth 1.7 million.
It is the one with the decks.
http://binged.it/GUBdCR
Shiller: housing may not recover in our lifetime
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/shiller-housing-chance-bottom-suburban-prices-may-not-161914444.html
Brass #73: “Main issue is staff jobs are geared towards under 30 crowd who will work cheaper, work longer hours, have no kids, wont call in sick a lot and dont have elder care or child care issue. Basically Boss goes theres the cube work, if you do a good job for a few years I will promote you if not you will leave.
“Hire a guy who is 54 with two kids in HS and one kid in college, a stay at home wife, big mortgage and elder parents or inlaws to take care of on a job requiring a long commute like in the city and possible health issues and he is just seeking one of two things if he takes a job beneath him. 1. A life vest to get back to work in hopes of pushing you asap to promote him or give him more money. 2. A desk or cube to ride it out to 65 putting in 9-5 hours. But will he be happy? Most likely not. ”
What about guy who is in his 50’s with no kids and a working wife who makes a good living…a guy who just really enjoys what he does? A guy who can rip out the network you put in on the cheap and replace it with one that works when it’s supposed to, who can clear up any virus your pr0n-addicted staff inadvertently downloads and keep your users happy with their computers? If you hire a guy like that full time and pay him $60-$70K, believe me, he’ll be happy. And he’ll stay, because he has no desire to retire. At the very LEAST you’ll get probably a decade of dedication and hard work out of him, which is something you won’t get out of the twentysomethings you covet so dearly.
I agree. But the kids need jobs too. Plus if I was married to a good looking woman with a high income and no kids I would be golfing, at the beach, going to day games with all retired cops and firemen. I don’t think I would want to waste my time working. It is bad enough you have to work.
Actually he sounds great. Only thing I would hold against him is he does not have to work. Generally the trust fund kids or men who have wives who make a higher income are flighty. I like the ones where I can staple gun their nuts and they say thank you sir. Just kidding.
Trouble is he is doing a job that is extremely difficult and complicated that people dont understand and tons do for cheap.
Remember, my first Boss on Wall street told me, you can only make money I dont care about saving money. They reward the guys who 100K in the door more than the guy who saves 200K
Actually I dont want a decade. People are most productive between years 1-5 on a job. He should apply for a job at BATS, those guys have real IT issues.
Jill says:
March 27, 2012 at 3:51 pm
Brass #73: “Main issue is staff jobs are geared towards under 30 crowd who will work cheaper, work longer hours, have no kids, wont call in sick a lot and dont have elder care or child care issue. Basically Boss goes theres the cube work, if you do a good job for a few years I will promote you if not you will leave.
“Hire a guy who is 54 with two kids in HS and one kid in college, a stay at home wife, big mortgage and elder parents or inlaws to take care of on a job requiring a long commute like in the city and possible health issues and he is just seeking one of two things if he takes a job beneath him. 1. A life vest to get back to work in hopes of pushing you asap to promote him or give him more money. 2. A desk or cube to ride it out to 65 putting in 9-5 hours. But will he be happy? Most likely not. ”
What about guy who is in his 50′s with no kids and a working wife who makes a good living…a guy who just really enjoys what he does? A guy who can rip out the network you put in on the cheap and replace it with one that works when it’s supposed to, who can clear up any virus your pr0n-addicted staff inadvertently downloads and keep your users happy with their computers? If you hire a guy like that full time and pay him $60-$70K, believe me, he’ll be happy. And he’ll stay, because he has no desire to retire. At the very LEAST you’ll get probably a decade of dedication and hard work out of him, which is something you won’t get out of the twentysomethings you covet so dearly.
What is BATS?
BB [73];
But will he be happy? Most likely not.
Since when does that bother you? You worried about retention/employee moving on? You just said whoever fills the position was disposable, up or out.
You just want hand, and you think you can push around the young’uns. Sadly, you’re probably right, but (speaking of insulting the listeners intelligence) don’t try to dress it up.
“Is Capt Sunshine the current incarnation of Capt Cheapo?”
Nope. Capt Sunshine uses significantly better grammar.
Giants to Host Cowboys on Sept. 5 to Start 2012 NFL Season
BATS was the most ill fated IPO of all time. A stock exchange IPO where their own computers crashed on day of IPO and had to cancel the whole thing and also caused a mini-flash crash in apple stock. Betcha lots of IT folks getting canned this week.
Jill says:
March 27, 2012 at 4:26 pm
What is BATS?
“What is BATS?”
What JJ carries when it’s time to collect the rent. If I recall correctly, he also drives the beater.
Another day in hell.
Funny when I was between cars three years ago I dragged my old benz out of garage and used it as a station car for a few weeks. Beleive me driving a car that was off the road for 8 years is not pretty. Anyhow some guy at work was bragging he is so poor he drives a 1993 car to the station. When I called him rich guy I dont drive such a new car, he was shocked I was driving a 1975 car to the station. Apparantly even in 2008 that was considered old.
Libtard at home says:
March 27, 2012 at 4:42 pm
“What is BATS?”
What JJ carries when it’s time to collect the rent. If I recall correctly, he also drives the beater.
Hii fivvee
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Love me some Discount Auto Parts. In other news:
Here’s your no-stats, top of my head demographic breakdown:
1. 20-somethings – not buying. Early 20’s not even working.
2. 30-somethings – half are looking, half are already burned, mostly not buying.
3. 40-somethings – mostly bought and screwed. Detached from the market.
4. 50-somethings – big population, definitely not buying. Holding pat if they can.
5. 60-somethings – huge population, not moving. Detached from the market.
6. 70-somethings – Selling and downsizing. About to crush the market from the top.
7. 80-somehtings – Doesn’t matter. Most of their property will fall down into the other groups.
^^^^And one of the reasons the 60-somethings aren’t moving is because their adult kids came back or never left.
North Dakota to vote on eliminating property taxes.
“On June 12, 2012, the voters of North Dakota will vote on Measure 2, a comprehensive state constitutional amendment that, if passed, will abolish the property tax once and for all in that state, such that property ownership, and not rental from the government, becomes their reality.”
I think I found my new home. I dont care how cold it gets. Give me 100 acres and Ill raise buffalo and dig for oil.
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119 – Al – You just made me think a little differently. Thanks. Property taxes have always baffled me. Just about anything else, if you buy quality now with your hard-earned-and-saved savings, you reap the rewards down the road. But with RE you pay more now and you pay more forever. Just imagine every RE purchase as a cash sale for a home. Thanks to Al, I’ll now think of buying a blue-ribbony house in a blue-ribbony town and it’s equivalent to this:
1. $800K deposit (if you take care of it you should get 100% of your deposit back when you move out) – aka purchase price.
2. $20,000 annual rent (~$1700/month) which will go up every year, aka – Property taxes.
3. Maintenance and repairs – pick your dollar amount, paid by thn “renter”, not the “owner”
I rented (for real) a house in Long Island in the mid-90’s. I had to pay $7800 at move in to pay $1800/month for rent. I thought the move-in price was high, but, hey, I needed a place for us to live. I got most of it back (there was a realtor fee in there, we got our full deposit back). But think about it! $800K to move in or $7800 to move in, which would you pick for a “rental”. Oh yeah. In one of the situations, there may be no good way out of the “lease”.
http://www.tmz.com/2012/03/27/dennis-rodman-broke-child-support/#.T3JN72Egddc
Maybe he can move in with Bobby Brown
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/28/business/foreclosure-deal-gives-banks-credit-for-routine-activities.html?_r=1&seid=auto&smid=tw-nytimesbusiness&pagewanted=all
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/27/us-mfglobal-serwinski-idUSBRE82Q10X20120327
Jon: You may want to make an offshore reservation , just in case and have
the engines warm and ready to go
Boy oh boy! Bears are so angry! Must turn them into happy Bulls! Shoo bears shoo! Go away! Tomorrow will be a happy day
[119] al
If it happens, ND will become a Preppers paradise. The ideal nompounds will be tax exempt.
I bet North Dakota has a Stand Your Ground law, too.
Is it true that brewing homemade malt liquor is the state pastime in ND?
I didn’t think anyone lived in North Dakota! No wonder why they have no property taxes. They don’t need any government services!!!
North Dakota population – 683,932 in 70,762 square miles.
Essex County population – 784,228 in 130 square miles.
My Uni roommate grew up in ND, army brat on one of the IBCM silo bases.
No sane person from NJ could move to ND and survive there.
Was in Harvey Cedars last summer, those dunes are amazingly beautiful, can’t believe the snobs are hating on them.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46872827
Toll and Lennar say “Best spring in 5 years”
The utter BS never ends.
stu 130 Good they have plenty of room for me.
[131] nwnj,
“Sane person from NJ”
Isn’t that an oxymoron?
MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.7% vs. -7.4% last week. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rate with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) increased to 4.23% from 4.19%.
It’s all turning to shit, Mikey. Bernank and his thugs tried to remove the QE life support, and the already-dead patient began to stink again.
Time for another round of money printing. The only thing now is how does Bernank make it a surprise. QE only works when it’s a surprise.
#130 Lib
ND can be summed up by number of senators per head and electoral votes for the state.
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