From the Philly Inquirer:
Realtors’ group poll: Property taxes irk N.J. residents
If you want to rile a New Jersey resident, two words will do it: property taxes.
Most state residents — 89 percent of the 800 registered voters surveyed in early April by the state’s Realtors, according to the poll’s results — maintain that property taxes are too high, but they are less united about proposals to lower them.
“Property taxes continue to be a major concern, even ahead of the economy and jobs,” said Joe Goode, senior vice president of American Strategies, who has been conducting the poll for the New Jersey Association of Realtors for the last five years.
What changed this year is the mood of the voters polled, Goode said.
Forty-seven percent said the state was headed in the right direction, while 42 percent disagreed, he said. In 2009, just 19 percent said the state was on the correct path; in 2010, 31 percent said it was.
Gov. Christie’s proposal to cut the state’s income tax by 10 percent was supported by 63 percent of the voters the Realtors’ group polled this year.
…
When asked why housing cost so much in their areas — 49 percent had complained about it — the largest percentage, 28 percent, blamed home sellers and builders trying to make too much profit.Nearly half those polled said foreclosures remained a huge problem in the state. There was virtually unanimous support, Goode said, for a program that would renovate foreclosed properties into affordable housing.
Fifty-two percent of those polled said they want the state to abolish its real estate transfer tax, and they strongly opposed proposals to allow municipalities to levy their own transfer taxes and impose a sales levy on vacation rentals.
A small majority favored managed-growth policies as a way to combat sprawl, the poll results showed.
Good Morning New Jersey
From Knowledge@Wharton:
Optimism Is Up, but the U.S. Housing Market Faces a Painful Shift
It’s spring, the time when Americans traditionally think about new homes — trading up for growing families, downsizing for retirees, picking up a vacation home or buying a starter home to escape renting.
But four years after the start of the financial crisis, and six years after home prices began to collapse, the market is still shaky. Nationally, prices are about 35% below their peaks in 2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released on April 24, and in some markets homes have lost 60% of their value. About one in four homeowners with mortgages, some 11 million households, are “underwater” — owing more than their homes are worth. Construction and sales of new homes remain anemic, with housing starts about one-third the historical average.
Still, there have been some hopeful signs. A second home-price dip that began late in 2010 seems to have stopped this year, according to the Case-Shiller survey, and the National Association of Realtors says February’s existing-home sales were up nearly 9% from a year earlier.
The key question: Has the housing market hit bottom? If it has, are prices likely to climb, or will they bounce along the bottom for some time — for many months, perhaps for years?
From Calculated Risk:
The Bottom for House Prices
First a comment: Back in February, I argued that The Housing Bottom is Here. My previous house price call was back in December 2010, and at that time I thought we’d see another 5% to 10% decline on the repeat sales indexes. Corelogic is down 7.3% since October 2010, and the Case-Shiller composites indexes (NSA) are down about 7.6% (both will probably fall further with the March report). About what I expected.
Here are some more bottom calls (or close to bottom calls). Most of the following analysts and economists haven’t called a bottom before – so this isn’t the usual annual “Rite of Spring” bottom calls, but we have to be careful about an echo chamber since we all look at the similar data.
From CNBC:
Housing: Bottom, Reversal or Just Noisy Numbers
The spring housing numbers aren’t coming in along expectations.
That can’t be, right?
Unemployment has been easing, mortgage delinquencies falling, and affordability is off the charts. That means housing should be bouncing back with verve and vigor this Spring, except it’s not.
It’s not crashing again, it’s just bouncing along a bottom, which means the recovery, as we’ve been warning all along, becomes increasingly local.
…
So what are we to think, and how are we to play housing, here at the almost, sort of, bottom in some markets but not in others?
“Investor demand will drive many markets this spring and summer,” says David Stiff, chief economist at Fiserv. “This means that, at the moment, the MBA purchase application index is a less reliable predictor of sales activity.”
Stiff says he thinks the housing market has bottomed out, but that won’t be obvious until next year. He also makes clear that the recovery will be driven by investors, and investors largely buy in the lower cost markets.
The one truth I heard in all the heated talk of housing today came from CNBC’s Jim Cramer, with whom I often disagree. He said, “aggregate numbers make you no money.” He was talking specifically about housing.
Check Out Openeing Statement http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=G44NCvNDLfc
It’s all turning to black.
Another day in hell.
Meat hurry. Classes are filling up fast for the training camp in south Jersey.
Training for the zombie apocalypse:
http://money.cnn.com/video/smallbusiness/2012/04/25/smb-zombie-camp.cnnmoney/?iid=HP_River
Read our lips, please raise our property taxes:
http://www.tampabay.com/news/localgovernment/residents-ask-st-petersburg-city-council-to-raise-property-tax-rate/1226950
Looks like death race 2012 back in march was also caught on video.
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/NJ-Troopers-Escort-Race-Garden-State-Parkway-148945615.html
Shore, too many NJ expat smacktards down in Tampa. Same thing will happen to Bucks County.
Take your kids to work day today!! Talk about akward for unemployed Dads.
Grim,
Good call on the real estate bottom. Though I think for my development, it’s time for another downdrop year. 7 or 8 homes for sale within half a mile, they all think they can sell for $800k to $900k. To whom? Maybe the largest,best, and best placed house can go, but not all. And a 4br, 2.5 ba for $850k just because the ceilings are high? No chance.
Property taxes are too high because government spending is too high. Focus on the disease, not the symptom.
I actually like to grieve and complain about my property taxes. But to be honest. Federal and State taxes and payroll taxes are a much bigger issues. My property taxes are like 1/26 of my Federal and State Tax burden. By January 15 I have paid more in income taxes than I will in property taxes for a full year. Even worse for income tax paid I get nothing directly back. The unemployed guy across the street who has not worked since 2002 gets same garbage pick-up and free school as I do. He pays no income tax yet he gets same exact benefits I do. At least in RE tax I can see what my money is being spent on, Fire, Police, Library, Schools, Road. Income Tax is a black hole.
The United States was founded by people who were b!tching about their taxes. It is our right as Americans to whine about our taxes.
Meredith Whitney: State Finances Are Still Doomed – These Three States Are In The Most Trouble
Can anyone here guess which three she is talking about?
We’re looking to move to NJ suburbs from our apartment The taxes are scaring us off though. Its not just that they’re high, its that they’re growing so quickly. If they double again in 5-10 years I dont think we can afford it. We’re seriously looking at Queens/SI as well now, sure we’d pay city tax but its less than NJ property tax and we’re safer if we lose our jobs (or retire).
Meredith Whitney: State Finances Are Still Doomed – These Three States Are In The Most Trouble
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/meredith-whitney-state-finances-still-doomed-three-states-121635982.html
Guess which state is one of the three?
“Property taxes continue to be a major concern, even ahead of the economy and jobs,” said Joe Goode, senior vice president of American Strategies, who has been conducting the poll for the New Jersey Association of Realtors for the last five years.
A model doesn’t exist to price anything accurately nor determine limits on lending. It’s all finger-in-the-air methodology. So, to say we’re appoaching a bottom in our area is riduculous. When property taxes climb unabatedly based on an elected body, held accountable to no one, then house prices will decline indefinitely and proportionally to the increase in tax extortion.
17 I can’t wait to hear our Govenor’s response. This should be good
19 –
Take it with a grain of salt. I think she predicted widespread municipal bond defaults that never really materialized.
She is also bulish on citi and american express, guess they will go BK soon.
Brian says:
April 26, 2012 at 9:30 am
19 –
Take it with a grain of salt. I think she predicted widespread municipal bond defaults that never really materialized.
Richard #16,
Taxes won’t double in 5-10 years.
There is a 2% cap in place, which albeit leaky, will slow down the rate of property tax growth. 2011 saw an average 2.4% increase.
Pete [22],
LMAO!! Wanna buy a bridge?
20 regardless it’s still fun watching Christie calling her everthing but the “C” word
“Fewer layoffs are needed to lay the groundwork for more hiring…”
Duh.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-26/more-americans-than-projected-filed-jobless-claims-last-week.html
The 2% Cap only applies to the funded liabilities.
Gary #23 – Selling bridges? Now you are trying to get into the real astate biz?
For taxes to double in 5 years would require average annual growth of 15%. In 10 years, 7%.
Tell me how even with a leaky 2% cap any municipality could possibly push through these types of increases?
30 year realtor [27],
If I could figure out a way to sell dreams as well, THEN I’ll be entering the real estate business. ;)
[22] Property tax caps will never hold.
Q. What happens when they start plowing McMansions back to seed?
A. Everyone else get their taxes hiked.
Pete [29],
You’re under the impression that everyone is following rules. Either the tax rate is tossed out and a new one invented from thin air, or a town miraculously gets an exemption or some convoluted slight-of-hand reassessment takes place. My taxes have increased 83% in the last ten years. This is New Jersey, Pete.
As long as pension costs are excluded from a cap, taxes can easily double in a 5-10 year period, excluding any other increased spending. What is the current unfunded pension liability?
Anybody who wants to live in a very blue-ribbony NJ town with *falling* taxes should move to Peapack-Gladstone. A lot of homes have had their property taxes reduced there for 4 years running. Lots of nice $1.0 million homes that used to be $2.0 million. Buy now before everyone is priced-in!
“Everyone wants to live at the expense of the state. They forget the state wants to live at the expense of everyone.”
– Frederic Bastiat
In Nassau homes have locked in their assessed value for four years except for resales and large renovations. I saw a house that was assessed at 1.2 million sell for 990k and was reassessed at 1.5 million. Saw a few cases like that. People assumed you would get reassessed at your purchase price. However, town does comps vs. similar homes, so if you buy a short sale, estate sale, foreclosure for 900k on the average block where homes sell for 1.2 million, you get assessed at 1.2 million. A few people were shocked. You would think when you buy a home assessed at 1.1 million for 900K you would get a tax decrease. But bottom line home is assessed at its maket value and sometimes what you paid is not that important.
30
Gary – someone beat you to the punch!
“selling dreams”
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1047510073/remee-the-rem-enhancing-lucid-dreaming-mask?ref=live
Thought I’d share this. If you have the time and ability to concentrate (it’s quite long), it shines a light on debt in the United States and shows how it threatens national security. It’s something to think about as we vote in November. Who would govern in the most fiscally responsible manner? Who has even a remote chance of tackling this problem?
‘Warnings of a Parting Friend’: Today’s Fiscal Crisis and U.S. National Security
http://www.ici.org/pressroom/speeches/12_pss_debt_threat_spch
Quote from the article:
Our first President also had parting advice on economic issues for his fellow citizens and subsequent generations of Americans.
“As a very important source of strength and security, cherish public credit,” he [George Washington] said. By “cherish,” he meant “treat credit as precious”—or, as he hastened to add, “use it as sparingly as possible.”
re: # 29 – Pete it won’t be any municipality pushing through increases. It will be the State, they run the show for retirement. For you see the politicians promised $70+ billion in medical benefits to future and current retirees, entirely unfunded.
I am not talking about the Pensions yet either, and that also is a big problem too.
Yes, I understand this is New Jersey. I understand that taxes have increased dramatically the past 10 years. But even during that time periods massive runup they did not double in 5 – 10 years (on average; yes, some towns may have).
If you honestly believed they will double again in 5-10 years it would be financial suicide to not sell your house now and leave the state.
Juice,
I was always under the impression that property taxes fund the pensions and benefits of public workers including police, fire, and teachers. I’m trying to get my hands on what % of overall costs are attributed to them.
Comming soon to NJ? (The prosecution, that it, I’m sure the corruption is already here, has its shoes off, its feet up, and is drinking a beer from our fridge).
Ex-appraiser undervalued houses to drive donations to Assessor.
More here: http://pjmedia.com/instapundit/141630/
Talking about taxes doubling in nominal terms is the same as not talking about taxes at all. Taxes could easily double in 5 years in nominal terms while actually declining in real terms.
Pete – The ratings agencies follow it closely, and only two states have worse ratings than NJ right now.
Remember New Jersey became the first state ever to be charged with fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission, for trying to conceal the extent of its pension problems while selling bonds.
Gov Christie made some reforms last year but kicked the can down the road for making the pension contributions needed, I think we are making about 14% of what is actually needed. Instead they are rolling the dice again on Wall St with the money they have chasing yield like everyone else.
Better hope AAPL hits $1111 a share.
OK maybe I was carried away about doubling in 5-10 years. The fact is
1) they are high
2) they’re growing much quicker than inflation
3) the state & towns are still running a deficit
4) I haven’t had a pay rise in 5 years
5) I dont have lots of children
Looking at buying the mortgage interest isn’t a big deal, its the property tax. I have no idea how high they will be down the road. If I buy in SI or Queens the property tax will be 3-4k a year, and I dont have to worry so much, commute is similar.
As much as I see the California Proposition 13 causing trouble. Something like that for NJ would help me. It doesn’t have to be 1%, even if property tax was capped at say much higher 2.5% of the property value it would at least provide some certainty. Right now it just feels like a big risk.
pete (29)-
Take a look at what happened in Paterson, then come back here. There are so many exceptions that allow towns to blow through the 2% cap…like pension/bennie underfunding.
Tell me how even with a leaky 2% cap any municipality could possibly push through these types of increases?
gary (30)-
I have some nightmares to sell…if you’re buying.
“If I could figure out a way to sell dreams as well, THEN I’ll be entering the real estate business.”
Meat [46],
Did you research it?
Richard (44)-
We shouldn’t be modeling a potential doubling of property taxes in NJ by doing a look-back at NJ municipalities. It would be much more appropriate to study blown-out cities like Cleveland, Memphis, Phila, etc, where the towns chased off businesses and productive people and systematically shrank the tax base.
Once your tax base is gone, it never comes back. Those left behind in these situations then get crushed with exploding tax bills.
gary (47)-
I’ll get on that research as soon as I can score some PCP.
Once your tax base is gone, it never comes back. Those left behind in these situations then get crushed with exploding tax bills.
No worries… Oblama has a plan to pick up the slack aided by millionaires and billionaires.
gary…you saw this?
Westjester says:
April 26, 2012 at 6:15 am
Re #144
Gary
I want to contact you privately about IT employment. I work in IT for a large bank in NYC.
You are not crazy…..remember the RULE OF 72
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_72
Richard says:
April 26, 2012 at 11:20 am
OK maybe I was carried away about doubling in 5-10 years. The fact is
1) they are high
2) they’re growing much quicker than inflation
3) the state & towns are still running a deficit
4) I haven’t had a pay rise in 5 years
5) I dont have lots of children
Looking at buying the mortgage interest isn’t a big deal, its the property tax. I have no idea how high they will be down the road. If I buy in SI or Queens the property tax will be 3-4k a year, and I dont have to worry so much, commute is similar.
chicagofinance [51],
I did not see it. Thank you for pointing it out!
Westjester, where are you? You can get my contact info from the owner of this blog. Or, he can pass your info on to me.
51 –
Wow the economy is really turning around. Employers are trying to hunt Gary down.
His phone was dead only yesterday.
Brian [54],
If you’re a Java developer… take your pick. If you’re in a supporting role of any kind, you have to fight like he11.
If there are no jobs in IT why look for an IT job? Just take if off your resume. Put in only all your other stuff, budgeting, management, project work etc. I did that twice while job hunting. Only problem is at one point I was ill advised that IT was the next big thing in the early 1990s. Apparantly it is far easier to get a job in IT than to know anything about IT. For some strange reason the Boss said it appears you do not know how to use a computer. I told him that is not true. It does not appear I dont know how to use a computer, I have never used a computer in my life. Apparantly, although I gave lots of advice to IT folks on how to improve main frame systems and improve other systems apparantly this guy wanted me to type in word, use excel, access, send emails, send powerpoints, do SQM testing, run macros, do all types of stuff. I told him I can sit in room and look at what you did and tell you how to do it better. If you wanted a computer person why didn’t you ask me computer questions. The 50 year old guy goes let me tell you a secret I dont know how to use a computer either. Heck I cant type in word or send an email. We both laughed. In a few weeks I picked it up. I still personally could do without computers.
java developer is what we called the secretraries in the 1980s that got us coffee.
gary says:
April 26, 2012 at 12:22 pm
Brian [54],
If you’re a Java developer… take your pick. If you’re in a supporting role of any kind, you have to fight like he11
55 –
I hope it works out Gary :)
61 –
Lame. Java=Coffee is the oldest joke in the book JJ. Gotta work on your material.
Java is what is running your Android phone. It is why Oracle/Google CEO’s are in court the last few months. If Java is so valuable, it stands to reason why learning how to use it would be valuable as an employee. Java programmers make the big bucks in the IT world. The next gen analytical tools (big data etc) all are going to use Java.
How much does a good one get paid?
Zack says:
April 26, 2012 at 12:46 pm
Java is what is running your Android phone. It is why Oracle/Google CEO’s are in court the last few months. If Java is so valuable, it stands to reason why learning how to use it would be valuable as an employee. Java programmers make the big bucks in the IT world. The next gen analytical tools (big data etc) all are going to use Java.
I’m looking to fill a tech sales/SE position, west coast, send resumes my way.
grim,
Give my contact info and/or get Westjester’s contact info for me! :)
The best ones are out there creating software (they make monry in millions once their software is successfully sold. check out IBM’s purchase of Vivismo yesteday) .
The good ones work for prop trading desks, hedge funds fine tuning trading applications. They make 200K – 350K
Average ones work for big banks doing standard stuff. They make 120K – 160K
Incoming H1B candidates on their first gig in the US make 80K – 110K
Asking price is 569K; taxes in 2010 were $15,400. That’s a serious problem:
http://www.trulia.com/property/3078131890-86-Irving-St-Midland-Park-NJ-07432
Greetings from the Gulag ( essex co. ). Home of double dipping, double dealing, and doubling taxes! I need a cigarette, I just got skrewed.
Gary 64 You could sit back in that beautiful sunroom with a caculator and figure out how you are going to pay for it all. Hopefully they throw in the wicker chairs at that price.
Mike [66],
In 3 years from now, the asking prices are going to be stunning compared to today, let alone 2005.
Zack you and I hire some h1B candidates have them create something we sell if for million sand then deport them.
Zack says:
April 26, 2012 at 12:54 pm
The best ones are out there creating software (they make monry in millions once their software is successfully sold. check out IBM’s purchase of Vivismo yesteday) .
The good ones work for prop trading desks, hedge funds fine tuning trading applications. They make 200K – 350K
Average ones work for big banks doing standard stuff. They make 120K – 160K
Incoming H1B candidates on their first gig in the US make 80K – 110K
Trouble with hoping that home prices collapse in upper train station towns is this huge bull market we are in. Stock grants in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 with three year vesting are hitting and peoples 401K have gone way up. Anyone who survived recession is not in mood to spend. Remember, those who were never let go cut back spending significantly in fear the ax would hit them next. Many cut spending significantly and paid down/off mortgages, got rid of debt. Why do you think Hampton sales are up. Imagine if you survived at Morgan Stanley, Citi, GS or Chase and majority of bonus was in stock past few years. You would have been mad as all heck in 2009-2011 when you need cash. But now after three years of cutting back spending those stock bonuses after three year vesting in many cases are up 100%. Plus with cap gains going up next year and Dow at near 14K time to sell. Wife see that cash hitting account you know new cars, vacations and summer homes are to be bought. Time to burst this treasury bond bubble and bring on the stock and housing market bubble again and party like it is 1999.
69 blah blah blah. Many of those u talk about already in fact I would say most have houses. The street is radically changing. The fact u still come on with this nonsense is in a word tiresome. If u have been on the street as long as you claim you should know better.
There was this Dilbert cartoon where Dilbert is talking with co-worker Alice about developing an app and making millions of dollars. Alice then says that instead of developing an app she just bought a lottery ticket, it is easier and has the same chances and outcome. Then she ask Dilbert if he would just rather have her buy one for him instead of trying to develop an app.
Perhaps your idea is just super awesome. I dunno. Probably not though.
after reading today’s discussion, somewhat reluctant to submit another lowball offer on the property we are interested in; note to myself -better stop reading this blog… jk
3b,
Take an empty paper towel holder and look through it..you now have JJs view of the world. Roll it in onion powder and stick your c**k in it and you have his Friday night. ;>)
ozerna – take your deposit and buy AAPL.
It is a game of Thunderdome, two go in only one comes out. I am like the Mark Brunell of Wall Street. I bet he will still be playing somewhere next year even though he is like a million years old.
The street is not radically changing. Equity volumes are just way way down. Money is going to bonds and other investments. It is cylical. Once the other investments reach the peak and start to crash their will be a rush back to equities. Seen it before it happens all the time. Volumes were terrible for most of the 1970s, we had a nice bull run from 1982 to 2001, another nice run from 2003 to 2007. Right now stocks are rising but on light volumes that stinks. We need volume, other thing is volume is measured in shares. Stupid Stocks like Apple suck. I know it is a great company. But 20 years ago you would never let a stock get that high. 20 years ago that stock would have been split ten times and be a 60 dollar a share stock. Instead brokers get orders for 30 shares that should be orders for 3,000 shares. Stocks like Citi and AIG were also killers when they did reverse splits. People call up broker and go buy me 10K of Citi, at $1 a share that is 10,000 shares. Retail investor needs to start buying into this rallly, get some stock splits like coke just did and we need to burst the bond bubble. Once we do that we should be fine again.
3B says:
April 26, 2012 at 2:20 pm
69 blah blah blah. Many of those u talk about already in fact I would say most have houses. The street is radically changing. The fact u still come on with this nonsense is in a word tiresome. If u have been on the street as long as you claim you should know better.
Has anyone ever heard me complaining about economy, stock market, bond market, housing, jobs etc. on a personal basis. You need to zig while others are zagging.
Bystander says:
April 26, 2012 at 2:55 pm
3b,
Take an empty paper towel holder and look through it..you now have JJs view of the world. Roll it in onion powder and stick your c**k in it and you have his Friday night. ;>)
I have to get busy, the Jets are selecting at number 16 tonight in draft. Woody needs my help.
#75 The Street is changing the decline in equity volume is only one small part of it. If you think otherwise than you are not as wired in as you think you are;not in the least.
Juice Box,
not a bad idea, but hubby is itching to have a garage, backyard and weekends filled with work
The most visible part is conferences, car services, lunches, free smart phones are gone for most and drinking at lunch or even after work is dead and so are tickets to games.
Lot of it is also ‘optics’ The streets hey day is dead for now. We will be back. They said the same thing in the 30s.
3B says:
April 26, 2012 at 3:17 pm
#75 The Street is changing the decline in equity volume is only one small part of it. If you think otherwise than you are not as wired in as you think you are;not in the least.
#80 BB: Much deeper than that and obviously you don’t know it.
Here are some Brass Balls.
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2012/04/my-speech-delivered-at-new-york-federal.html
Surgery is less painful for the surgen
3B says:
April 26, 2012 at 3:42 pm
#80 BB: Much deeper than that and obviously you don’t know it.
Just got the craving for some Java and Apple pie.
#83 BB: You are many things, but you are definitely not the surgeon.
Cost containment are my two favorite words in 2012. Like a scalpel I will make sure staff do not order toppings on their pizza
3B says:
April 26, 2012 at 4:06 pm
#83 BB: You are many things, but you are definitely not the surgeon.
3B [85];
Maybe he meant ‘sturgeon’ — too much vodka and caviar.
Take this FWIW
“The street is not radically changing” – BB
Whawhawhawha??!
HFT and feigned bids don’t count? Seen it all the time, have ya?
How about artificially low rates? Changing mark to market to mark to imaginary so the banks don’t have to delever their balance sheets and go insolvent? Doubling/Trebling the US money supply to prop up the banks (US & Euro via IMF)? Corporate earnings kept abroad so as to keep foreign banks afloat? And all the other extrema? Sure, you saw it all coming, too, didn’t ya? Me thinks not!
Equity volumes are down b/c small investors got squeezed in their short term accounts as well as in their retirement accounts. Only the prescient and lucky escaped this phase. The dark pools and private trading networks are taking up volume previously on the poor man’s exchanges (now run by HFT algo’s).
Housing – The NAR reps are seemingly colluding. House prices are jumped 20-40k upon being listed (the neighbors’ house prices don’t move – busted!). Realtor’s want above last year’s max valuation – unwarranted – so they bid high enough to allow for a 5-6% discount from list – check the stats. The joke is out. And the municipalities are collecting real estate taxes equal to those received when the real estate prices were peak. The joke is out.
And it’s no wonder why they’re soft like brass – all those soft amenities and lunchtime/afterwork amenities. Hah! Go earn your keep! Ask your self why you didn’t get into an industry that requires some deeper thought (pharma, cyber, med) – where there’s still plenty of career upside. And don’t worry, there’s always American Idol and Dancing With The Stars. Gotta love the priorities espoused today. Gotta love ’em. /sarc off/
Enjoy the biflation – your new standard of living.
Actually I did see it all coming. TBTF, Artificial low rate extended period of time, housing collaspe. That is why I am not broke and have a job. Heck my TBTF bond strategy in 2009 made me a ton of cash, risk free. Bank of America, AIG, Citi, GMAC only a fool thought they were going under. 2009-2010 Junk Bond Bull Market, 2011 Muni Bull Market and 2012 Equity Bull Market. Uncle Ben is inflating asset classes one by one till he gets to housing which should be by 2013 so by 2014 he can suck liquidity out of market, raise rates and do a victory lap.
Standard Living says:
April 26, 2012 at 4:35 pm
Take this FWIW
“The street is not radically changing” – BB
Whawhawhawha??!
HFT and feigned bids don’t count? Seen it all the time, have ya?
re: #88 – When is the last time JJ took a town car home? I rarely see them dropping people off at night anymore in Hoboken.
re # 89 – “he can suck liquidity out of market” Better chance of getting him to suck a golf ball through a hose.
$100 million in reverse repo test in Feb. Nobody wants the MBS…..now Bernake wants to do reverse repos with the money markets!
Fed buys $7 billion mortgage bonds, sells none
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/26/us-markets-mortgages-fed-idUSBRE83P16S20120426
Hey sass a brass,
You don’t need to insult fools – despite American Idol, they’re wise enough to know that if AIG went, so went the CDS domino chain. And I give them the iota of credit to conclude that none of the money center banks weren’t going under, too. Fools thought the stock market would go to zero, but reversed that when contract law was thrown out and GM bondholders go the messy end of the stick – part of your bond strategy? Your bond strategy had nothing to do with prescience and had everything to do with the printing press (the money supply) – gee, never read that one in Ben’s Princeton Press history on the great depression.
You’re not as smart as you hope you are. There’s the greater fool theory (not me), and yes, even fools get lucky (not me, I’m good).
2014: Industry coming home/Jubilee theory, heh?
Material, but less than fair, odds are that Ben may not be Sec Treasury during your timeline. No victory lap unless one’s in the race
Brass, you a realtor?
AMZN: fcuk me…..I dont have the balls to touch that thing……..
64,
Gary,
The homeowners dont get it. No one cares about the sales price. Its the dam taxes!
I get insulted when I look at those properties. Do you really think I would buy your 15k per year problem so you can move to Florida? Appeal, appeal, then appeal again if you have to. Otherwise you are going to get stuck in your rat traps.
72,
Ozerna,
“after reading today’s discussion, somewhat reluctant to submit another lowball offer on the property we are interested in; note to myself -better stop reading this blog…”
Invest in a chicken coup instead.
AMZN: fcuk me…..I dont have the balls to touch that thing……..
Using Amazon PE logic, Apple should be a 5k stock. Amazon’s valuation is absurd.
“Uncle Ben is inflating asset classes one by one till he gets to housing which should be by 2013 so by 2014 he can suck liquidity out of market, raise rates and do a victory lap.”
Seriously JJ, raise rates??? Are you sure you work in the financial industry?
If Ben raises rates, the cost to pay back the debt skyrockets. We will have ZIRP and QE until the $$$ and the USA goes belly up.
Since I did not see it today (surprisingly):
Go Devils!
JJ stay low.
“Wall Street may have to carve off another 10%-12% of its staff if it hopes to achieve higher profitability targets this year, according to a recent report by the Boston Consulting Group. The cuts may include pay reductions as well, particularly for those in the upper ranks, as financial institutions struggle to wring profit from ROEs still languishing in the single digits.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47193143
Sorry there is more.
“Pay levels may get cut as well, particularly for senior employees who tend to be the most expensive for a bank, according to a report by Boston Consulting Group. ”
Thank goodness you have brass balls!
I don’t know JJ sounds like 3b has his hand on the pulse of wall street IE todays little discussion.
Gionta, you lil’ b*stard !! 2-0 baby.
JJ,
You are a Wall St. Bullsh_t artist. My Dad worked on Wall St. I told him I was changing my major to business sophomore year in College. He told me you are now cut off. Thats when I decided I needed to learn how to make a real living. Not ripping people off.
Well AG no one can accuse you of sugar coating. LOL
Wall St. is now politically toxic as is Goldman Sachs, the Fed, and the rest of the primary dealers. Hopefully within the next 5 years we can make the shareholders of the Fed politically toxic as well. Now we are going down the rabbit hole eh?
Damn Devils can’t hold a lead. Terrible.
Yeah….do me baby!
WSJ
HOMES
Updated April 26, 2012, 9:59 p.m. ET
Stunned Home Buyers Find the Bidding Wars Are Back
By NICK TIMIRAOS
A new development is catching home buyers off guard as the spring sales season gets under way: Bidding wars are back.
From California to Florida, many buyers are increasingly competing for the same house. Unlike the bidding wars that typified the go-go years and largely reflected surging sales, today’s are a result of supply shortages………………….
here’s the rub…
Inventories are declining for a number of reasons. Some sellers, unwilling to accept prices that are still down from their peak by one-third, are taking their homes off the market in anticipation of higher prices down the road. Meanwhile, investors have been outmaneuvering consumers for the best properties, often making cash offers that are quickly accepted by sellers.
In addition, some economists say that inventory levels are being held artificially low because Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the nation’s biggest banks have been slow to list for sale hundreds of thousands of foreclosed homes they currently own. The lenders slowed down foreclosure sales and repossessions after record-keeping abuses surfaced 18 months ago.
107,
Chi,
Hold onto your properties folks if you can. This is about nationalization of housing. The property taxes are the key. TPTB are coming after all your real assets by manipulating the paper BS.
Stupid poll. Who did not know taxes are too high?
great site. keep it up.http://www.onibuscuritiba.net