From Bloomberg:
Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Increased 4.1% in March
Signed contracts to buy U.S. homes rose more than forecast in March as low interest rates drew buyers back into the market.
The index of pending home purchases rose 4.1 percent to 101.4, the highest level since April 2010, after a 0.4 percent gain in February that was revised from a previously estimated 0.5 percent drop, the National Association of Realtors reported today in Washington. The median forecast of 43 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 1 percent rise in the measure, which tracks contracts on previously owned homes.
…
“It’s good news,” said Sean Incremona, senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York. “It does suggest that improvement in the housing market is continuing.”
…
Compared with a year earlier, March pending home sales climbed 10.8 percent after a 14.9 percent surge in February.
From Reuters:
Pending homes sales near two-year high in March
Contracts to purchase previously owned homes increased solidly to a near two-year high in March, suggesting the spring selling season got off to a firmer start and offering hopes of a pickup in housing.
The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in March, jumped 4.1 percent to 101.4, the highest level since April 2010.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected signed contracts, which lead existing home sales by a month or two, to rise 1.0 percent after a previously reported 0.5 percent fall.
March’s strong rise in signed contracts pointed to a pick up in home resales after they stumbled in the past two months.
…
Signed contracts were up 12.8 percent in the 12 months to March.
Way Past The Point of Caring.
From the Realtors:
March – Pending Home Sales Index
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304723304577366294046658820.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0
Bidding wars are back. Hurry to your local Realtor’s office
Good Morning New Jersey
“Northeast pending home sales up 18.4% YOY in March”
Let it play out people, period. For years here Grim has reported the numbers, some bad some good, be patient (no I do not care if your other half is up your arise & nether should you). There are many factors on the economic front flashing the let it play out signal not the lest of these are the election and the European debt debacle. Next year rates will be low courtesy of the fed, if not the whole house of cards goes belly up. In addition prices in the best case scenario will be flat. Remember buy late sell early.
“Osama is dead; GM alive” real change
Technically, both of those events were started under the Bush administration, were they not?
The Detroit bailout credit probably belongs to congress more than anything, and Osama, well, his ass belongs to the guys who were holding the guns.
Another day in hell.
7 –
He’s quoting Biden’s speech. Biden really is a brilliant orator. Here’s another brilliant quote:
“Obama ‘Has A Big Stick. I Promise You’ ”
Check out the video
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/26/joe-biden-obama-big-stick_n_1456100.html
He wants to run for president in 2016 too. Now THAT will be the end of days.
What a dunce.
Dumb money still flocks to emerging markets
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dumb-money-still-flocks-emerging-045857889.html
Biden has half a mind to run in 2016. Of course, since the brain surgery, he has half a mind when it comes to anything
Home prices indeed may be recovering soon, only cause money has to flow somewhere. Plus with expiration of Bush Tax cuts, FSA cut back to only 3k, transist write off gone and much higher tax rates and with talks of limiting muni bond deduction and 401K deduction the tax advantages of owning property and having a mortgage will grow.
Plus dont underestimate the importance of bonds being called/matured. SB/MS has research and I concur regarding the massive amount of muni bonds scheduled to be called in July and August coming up. New Muni Bond issuance is down 1/3 and existing inventory is at record low rates. That money cant all flow back into munis. The same thing is occuring on the corporate bond side and as 5 year cds mature who wants to re-roll them at less than 1%. Originally in 2008-2010 folks went a little longer in their maturities as we knew rates would fall, no one expected we would still be in this environment still in the summer of 2012. Lots of cash deals on homes and large downpayments, why? Causing borrowing at 4% is not attractive when you have your money in a Chase “high yield” savings account at 4/10’s of one percent. 4% is actually 1,000% greater than the savings account rate.
[8] meat,
I can see you leaving it all behind to follow Colonel Kurtz.
Not looking in NJ anymore but Fairfield County, CT has picked up some steam. I estimate that 25% of houses I am tracking say pending. Last year, almost none. Surprised b/c people seem to jumping on these prices. No idea why. Low inventory is a main issue. Should be many more foreclosures but they are being held back. Govt. is doing everything to put to the floor in. Buyers getting battle fatigue I guess.
Seems 3b has a better line on how things are on the street.
JJ stay low.
“Wall Street may have to carve off another 10%-12% of its staff if it hopes to achieve higher profitability targets this year, according to a recent report by the Boston Consulting Group. The cuts may include pay reductions as well, particularly for those in the upper ranks, as financial institutions struggle to wring profit from ROEs still languishing in the single digits.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47193143
Sorry there is more.
“Pay levels may get cut as well, particularly for senior employees who tend to be the most expensive for a bank, according to a report by Boston Consulting Group. ”
Thank goodness you have brass balls!
From the Real Deal:
For effects of Wall Street layoffs on housing, look outside Manhattan
A new round of Wall Street layoffs is in the works next month, but that won’t necessarily impact Manhattan’s residential real estate market. Instead, according to Forbes, it will harm housing markets in nearby suburbs. In the last five years, Manhattan’s workforce has become more diversified and its real estate has become even more attractive to wealthy foreigners. Combined with the shortage of inventory many brokers are reporting, those factors leave the island less susceptible to fluctuations in Wall Street’s employment figures.
The same can’t be said for suburbs such as Greenwich, Conn., where first-quarter sales declined 31 percent annually for properties worth more than $2 million, acccording to Mark Pruner, a Prudential Connecticut Realty agent. “The recovering economy has given us a good real estate market if you are looking at houses under $2 million,” he said, “but over $2 million, which is primarily the area of the market fueled by Wall Street bonuses, sales are significantly down.”
Other areas, including Nassau and Westchester counties in New York, Bergen County in New Jersey and Fairfield County in Connecticut, are also feeling the negative affects of Wall Street firms’ struggling fortunes. In Westchester, for example, median sales prices of homes worth more than $2 million slipped 10 percent and fewer homes in the $5 million-and-up range were sold, according to Houlihan Lawrence.
Surprising that BCG didn’t recommend firing BCG consultants instead of staffers.
They need to fire 20%. We need to cut costs, consolidate real estate, get tough with vendors/consultants, cut 401K matches, cut bonuses, and kill long term comp for all employees except rock stars. To many firms golden handcuffed mediocre workers. We need to get lean and mean. Once we go all Jenny Craig and cut the fat big time, once volumes return somewhere around 2013/2014 if cycle follow it will set up us for a nice run. We can then back-fill with new hires at lower pay with a clean slate of no build up 401k matches/stock grants and start another run.
To me this is all good. Unions make mistake of carrying the dead wood in lean times in hopes in good times they can use them. Wall Street we eat what we kill and kill what we dont need. Trouble is downstream effects. As we purge high paying jobs, and rework vendor and landlord deals and cut back on lunches, dinners, drinks the effect will be all over Manhattan and train towns. I for one believe 7 years of feast is always followed by 7 years of faimine. 2008-2014 might be the famine years. So what I will feast from 2015 to 2021 come 2023 they can package me out, I cant take 7 years of famine by the time I am that old.
Mikeinwaiting says:
April 27, 2012 at 8:26 am
Seems 3b has a better line on how things are on the street.
JJ stay low.
“Wall Street may have to carve off another 10%-12% of its staff if it hopes to achieve higher profitability targets this year, according to a recent report by the Boston Consulting Group. The cuts may include pay reductions as well, particularly for those in the upper ranks, as financial institutions struggle to wring profit from ROEs still languishing in the single digits.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47193143
Sorry there is more.
“Pay levels may get cut as well, particularly for senior employees who tend to be the most expensive for a bank, according to a report by Boston Consulting Group. ”
Thank goodness you have brass balls!
Brian #9: But that kind of gets to the crux of the primal fear of white conservatives about Obama, doesn’t it? (Even if not intentional….)
#3 freedy: Fluff piece IMO, one would have expected better from the WSJ at one time. Of course Mr. Otteau is quoted,and no mention of NJ property taxes
Let’s think out of the box:
Pending Sale = bid is in, contract is under review, financing may fall through, deed may be dirty, realtor may be playing for other bids on a property (oops, I lost the file), multiple mortgage applications with multiple brokers/financiers by a single party for a single property (only one loan will be made), contracts dissolve this month and rematerialize in a future month (that’ll count twice, once in this month and again in a future month), etc.
I.e., pending sales means the deal is NOT CLOSED.
http://www.realtor.org/topics/pending-home-sales
Media bolster NAR agent price collusion as misinformation abounds.
A THEORY FOR CONSIDERAITON
The foreclosures will occur en masse at some time post fall 2012 election. Bank insolvencies to follow. Foreclosures cause banks to delever (10-20 to 1 against the valuations), currently at a significant loss. Foreclosures trickling now to correspond with bank earnings increases (losses realized against earnings).
NAR is pricing homes at 5-7% above last year’s max, so as to discount from list prices by as much and capture last year’s max. The end result: common market valuation and perhaps common financing risk among a neighborhood/town.
NAR collusion? You tell me.
Request discussion:
1) Did you check the online valuations of propsective property(ies) (Homes.com, AOL Real Estate, Zillow, Trulia, etc)?
2) Did you notice how certain websites show the valuations to have materially increased almost perfectly coincident to listing?
3) Did you notice if the valuations of neighboring properties didn’t move?
4) Did you notice how annual municipal property taxes are back to when the real estate was at the peak of the bubble?
5) Did you notice the yr-over-yr tax assessed value decrease against the yr-over-yr reflated tax on a property?
-SL
# 15 Mike: JJ lives in his own delusional world, he is blabbering on again this morning about cuts in pay and 401k’s and all the rest. That is all noise but does not address the real restructuring. He is also talking about increased volume in 2013 and 14, again nothing to do with the fundamental changes.
#5 Mike: Rates have to stay low now, The Fed backed itself into a corner. GDP first quarter @2.2, expected @2.7, fourth quarter 2011 at @3.00. More easing from Mr. Bernanke on the way.
For the NJ-based MLS systems, only “UC” statuses are provided as pendings. This does not include offers, accepted offers, or properties still in Attorney Review. Every state has different regulations around AR, so what applies here may not apply somewhere else. When I talk “pendings”, I’m looking at “UC” status as well, not ARIP+UC. Nobody is going to screw around with UC status, since it effectively removes a property from market. Mortgage applications have nothing to do with the NAR PHS data, if you are talking about weekly mortgage apps, those numbers are too noisy to be useful.
I believe the most common reason properties fall out of contract are inspection issues that the seller refuses to remediate, or the buyer refuses to accept. I’d say the second issue is financing related (including appraisal issues). Third I’d put broken contingency chains (buyer can’t sell, seller can’t buy). Fourth, “cold feet” or “bidder’s remorse”. Clouded title? Pretty rare. Now, failed short sales are pretty common, and I didn’t include that in my “general” list above, but I’d say that was probably number 3 or 4 right now.
“BOM” – Back on Market has always been around, it’s not an uncommon thing, even during the bubble (and the normal market before that), properties fell out of contract for very typical reasons. A contract cancellation rate of zero is not the norm. I’d say norm is probably 10-15%, so don’t look at a 20 or 30 print in a vacuum, look at the delta to norm.
There is quite a bit of activity right now, it’s not puff. Ask anyone actively looking, they’ll tell you the same. Anything priced well in good shape is moving quickly. This is the market. Overpriced, stagnant crapshacks are *not* the market.
3b (22)-
The only real fundamental change of note is that the entire US necronomy is kaput.
Northeast pending home sales up 18.4% YOY in March
Of course. And I’m a multi-millionaire… I just need to select the correct six numbers. Oh, and by the way, how’s that property tax statistic coming along?
I dont care if they fire 50% of people, salaries get cut to one dollar a person. Wall Street can control volume always. Compensation, Rent, Taxes, IT and T&E has to be cut significantly if trading vol is down. The IT folks in particular need to be cut, they build high speed data centers, lower latency, build massive head room and capacity for what. places are running at 1/4 top headroom. IT needs to be cut. They like bigger and better toys they are the dope who buy apple 3, then apple 4 then apple 4s blah blah blah, a manual pencil sharpner, couple pieces of paper and a few pencils and a rotary phone is all I need, IT is just a passing FAD,
3B says:
April 27, 2012 at 9:05 am
# 15 Mike: JJ lives in his own delusional world, he is blabbering on again this morning about cuts in pay and 401k’s and all the rest. That is all noise but does not address the real restructuring. He is also talking about increased volume in 2013 and 14, again nothing to do with the fundamental changes.
Oh…and all the big banks are insolvent, and have been since 2008.
All else is a remake of Weekend at Bernie’s: make the corpse appear to be alive.
Weather permitting, on 4/27/12 between 9:30 AM and 11:30 AM, NASA’s 747 Shuttle Carrier with space shuttle Enterprise mounted on top, will fly at low altitudes around the Statue of Liberty and the Intrepid Sea, Air and Space Museum before landing at JFK Airport.
It will also be accompanied by two T-38 aircraft serving as photo support.
I believe the most common reason properties fall out of contract are inspection issues that the seller refuses to remediate, or the buyer refuses to accept. I’d say the second issue is financing related (including appraisal issues). Third I’d put broken contingency chains (buyer can’t sell, seller can’t buy). Fourth, “cold feet” or “bidder’s remorse”.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
The realtor sold a house that had defects, at a price higher than it was worth to a couple who could not afford it.
Pricing a home correctly, disclosing material defects and selling to qualified buyers should be a realtors job.
gary says:
April 27, 2012 at 9:29 am
I believe the most common reason properties fall out of contract are inspection issues that the seller refuses to remediate, or the buyer refuses to accept. I’d say the second issue is financing related (including appraisal issues). Third I’d put broken contingency chains (buyer can’t sell, seller can’t buy). Fourth, “cold feet” or “bidder’s remorse”.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
The shuttle is en route to NYC.
JJ, nice takeoff. Will you be able to post while flying that thing? Oh wait, forgot who I was talking to. Never mind.
I am going to have my counterpart in manhattan disconnect your rotary phone from the PBX so you will have to send smoke signals. You still need an IT guy to fix your rotary phone buddy.
27.JJ says:
April 27, 2012 at 9:25 am
I dont care if they fire 50% of people, salaries get cut to one dollar a person. Wall Street can control volume always. Compensation, Rent, Taxes, IT and T&E has to be cut significantly if trading vol is down. The IT folks in particular need to be cut, they build high speed data centers, lower latency, build massive head room and capacity for what. places are running at 1/4 top headroom. IT needs to be cut. They like bigger and better toys they are the dope who buy apple 3, then apple 4 then apple 4s blah blah blah, a manual pencil sharpner, couple pieces of paper and a few pencils and a rotary phone is all I need, IT is just a passing FAD,
#27 JJ: You are still circling, and you still do not get it. As such you are not aware of what is happening; you are only seeing the cosmetics.
#24 I would say some things are moving, but quite frankly I also see plenty of houses that I thought would have moved, and have not. And these are in good condition, well priced debateable on some, but still far better than a few years ago. So in my own opinion a mixed bag.
Meat 28 “make the corpse appear to be alive” line of the day
I am seeing “fairly priced” homes go under contract. Where I watch I am seeing more pending sales. Less important to me than pending sales is price…of the bunch I have seen that are set to close May or June I want to see what price they trade and and if they reset prices.
[33] Brian,
Real men don’t need phones. JJ is equally fluent in semaphore, morse code, and naval flag signals.
That is true. I rarely every talk on a phone. Recently I was forced to change my cell phone number which I had for 11 years. The ATT person was suprised I did it so easily rather than pay the ten dollars extra a month to keep it. Only one or two people know my cell number, I have no contacts in it and I make like 15 minutes of calls a month. At college I did not have a phone, my hampton houses we did not have a phone and although I had a home phone when I was single I disconnected it all the time. Phones are also a fad. I dont text either. My buddies are real buddies. I say in August lets go to a Jets game two months from now, meet me at 11:30am at so and so that is it. Meanwhile I know 20 something that make thousands of calls just to arrange to meet at starbucks. 99% of cell phone calls are nonsense. The world was better without apple.
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
April 27, 2012 at 9:55 am
[33] Brian,
Real men don’t need phones. JJ is equally fluent in semaphore, morse code, and naval flag signals.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/apr/27/us-economic-growth-slows-rate?newsfeed=true
green shoots.
The focus on sales volume as a proxi for a robust real estate market seems odd. Sales numbers were down largely because the asking prices were not reasonable. Now that prices are falling, people are taking a closer look at buying and homes are getting sold. If the local butcher has been selling steak at $10 a pound then people stopped buying it at that price and now the meat is going bad and he cuts the price to move the inventory, how does that reflect strong organic demand for the product?
proxy, even
“The world was better without apple.”
So sayeth Adam.
John would be appalled by the guys I know who, for certain reasons dictated by their peculiar business, use a new disposable phone for each important call they make.
Vampira = RE Market in NJ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJb4aceSXQg
JJ is just a few degrees of separation from Kaczynski?
I get it, you dont get it. I worked at a broker dealer once with 6,000 people in the building 5,990 was let go. I was there the last ten in a building with thousands of half empty desks, rotten bagels on desks from months early and mice and bugs crawling cause we killed exterminators. I saw a guy jump off roof of our building in 1987 when he lost life savings, seen FBI arresting mulitple people at work. I even personally was in room when we pulled plug on Drexel intraday when they did not meet net capital and went out on street to watch them walk like zombies, saw WTC bombing in 1991, saw many co-workers and realatives die in 9/11 and watched Lehman collaspe. Was on phone with PPT pre-market in late 2008 and early 2009 almost every day.
Exactly what is happening, DF going to break up prop trading. WOW. they can sell it off maintain 49% ownership, seen it all buddy. Check Kiting EF Hutton, Joe Jett at Kidder, George Ball at Pru, stuff was worse from 1987 to 1992 and from 9/11 to early 2003 then even now. This aint nothing. I worked with one guy once with full blown aids when he found out he was getting let go, he ran around office spitting on people and trying to tounge kiss people in a complete flip out, one place the guy was screwing around with someone and a big murder sucide happened at work. Stuff happens. But rarely what you are afraid of rarely happens,. Like those nuts in Y2K filling bathtubs or nuts who thought downtown wall street was dead after 9/11. Yet here we are in 2012. Huge Bull Stock and Bond market and multiple bids on houses. Car sales at records and people booking expensive vacations. Bet you did not see that coming just three years ago.
If wall street falls apart others better worry. I will just take a job outside wall street. The deadwood loser folk in non-finance out in the surburbs better watch out if I am out of work. I will take a pay cut and take your job.
3B says:
April 27, 2012 at 9:42 am
#27 JJ: You are still circling, and you still do not get it. As such you are not aware of what is happening; you are only seeing the cosmetics.
Dont put in email what you can say on the phone, dont say on the phone what you can say in person, dont say in person what can be done with a wink or a nod.
Elliot Spitzer
48 –
I was with you buddy until you fired me.
:)
JJ – well said, now write a book. Since it is Friday how about we all help JJ come up with a title?
The shuttle fly by so cool!
JJ #27: While you’re denigrating IT people (a stupid moronic mistake that too many companies make), let’s see how your company does when your network that you hired some cheap kid to put together with tin cans and string goes down for a week. Then you’ll be screaming for a network tech like my very own very talented and diligent and knowledgeable DH (who is now sitting home because he is 57 years old and despite having EVERY up-to-date skill no one will look past his age)…and like most other companies, you’ll want to pay him 10 bucks an hour to get your greedy @ss back online.
Here is a title for JJ’s Book to get started “Don’t Hate the Wall St Playa”
A tale of a gregarious Wall St Bean Counter who rode the gravy train all the way from the Bronx to the Hamptons.
Your husband is the Mark Brunell of IT.
Jill says:
April 27, 2012 at 10:40 am
JJ #27: While you’re denigrating IT people (a stupid moronic mistake that too many companies make), let’s see how your company does when your network that you hired some cheap kid to put together with tin cans and string goes down for a week. Then you’ll be screaming for a network tech like my very own very talented and diligent and knowledgeable DH (who is now sitting home because he is 57 years old and despite having EVERY up-to-date skill no one will look past his age)…and like most other companies, you’ll want to pay him 10 bucks an hour to get your greedy @ss back online.
#47 JJ Been around probably longer than you, and again i know what I am talking about. All the things you mentioned, happened, so what, the street came back, that was then, this is now, and then it was back to business as usual The stuff you refer to is ancient history. This time it is not back to business as usual, and it is happening long after the 2008 financial crisis. As far as people out looking for houses, so what, they always were even in 2008. As an aside I know someone who purchased in 2008, who is now taking a 100k loss. I am out looking myself, and so what who cares that has nothing to do with the street. As another side I guess they are not looking too much in Nassau Co, with 16 months of available inventory. Booking vacations, again so what I did too, again it has nothing to do with the street.
If you are connected as you say you are, than you would know, otherwise you are just chattering.
Title: Hampton House
A practical guide to working the phrase “Hampton House” into any conversation…in a painful attempt to, hmmm…I don’t know for sure…but this guide will show you how.
Written by
Broken Balls
#51 Agreed!!! just saw it, amazing.
A good friend of mine took a job last year at BCG at a high level, and objectively, those guys are top notch. Probably with an almost “HAL from 2001”-like efficiency. Cold blooded killers. They are nice people, but in a Mitt Romney kind of way. Creepy.
grim says:
April 27, 2012 at 8:38 am
Surprising that BCG didn’t recommend firing BCG consultants instead of staffers.
http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/livenow?id=8637251
shuttle landing live
House near me sell quick. Usually bidding wars. Just price them 200K – 500K less than you paid. Realtors near me finally got smart they tell you to FSBO if you want to price high. I was looking for investment properties and gave up. This aint like RTC in 1991 and 1992. Homes sell quick if priced right. Back in 1991 you could price a coop 90% off and sometimes it would sit.
Some neighborhoods like Rockville Centre I just dont get. Homes selling for 1.1 million with 27K taxes on a 80×100 plot that need some work in a few weeks. I just dont get it. But go to MLSLI and you see these dogs selling with sky high taxes pretty quick all during recessinon. You could not give away a home in RVC in 1992
JJ,
Um, you do know that number portability has now become a reality and you can keep your same phone number regardless of which carrier you choose? It doesn’t cost anything to move a phone number from one phone to another. The technology has been around for a long time but carriers refused to do it because it kept people from moving to other carriers.
It took Federal law to get them in line and now number portability is spreading around the world. I expect to keep my telephone number for life.
Jill: I am only 43, so I am still freshly hatched in a lot of ways, but weathered enough to have seen some stuff. Additionally, my job allows me to gets the inside story on a lot of personal career stories. As always, you want to rail on JJ, but everything he says is true (if not embellished truth). At the end of the day, there is the Top Line (sales) and everything else is a cost. The most valuable people in the organization are the rainmakers. The problem is that the same qualities that allow a person to make rain come with foibles such as harassment, narcissism, sociopathy et al……jj is in accounting, so he is part of the “Clean-Up Crew” on a financial basis….the corporare secretary covers the legal angle……honestly, at the end of the day everything else is overhead……please don’t shoot the messenger…this reality sucks……the problem is that the survivors are the biggest bastards you know and you would never want to be their friend, or worse, married to them.
JJ says:
April 27, 2012 at 10:46 am
Your husband is the Mark Brunell of IT.
Jill says:
April 27, 2012 at 10:40 am
JJ #27: While you’re denigrating IT people (a stupid moronic mistake that too many companies make), let’s see how your company does when your network that you hired some cheap kid to put together with tin cans and string goes down for a week. Then you’ll be screaming for a network tech like my very own very talented and diligent and knowledgeable DH (who is now sitting home because he is 57 years old and despite having EVERY up-to-date skill no one will look past his age)…and like most other companies, you’ll want to pay him 10 bucks an hour to get your greedy @ss back online.
55 – 3b
Don’t take this the wrong way, I’m not trying to be confrontational but, you make some vague predictions. What exactly is going to happen to the street.
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-04-20/aviva-fires-everyone-great-moments-in-employee-motivation
ChiFi: I know you are only 43. I knew you when you were like 25, if you recall…back in the K-L days….
#63 Brian: I am not making vague predictions. I am simply stating that the model for the street is changing it is not going to be like the changes/restructuting that came when markets crashed in the past; different landscape.
I had a grandfathered unlimted data plan at ATT and a Grandfathered low cost voice family plan. Both had two different numbers technically, only way to keep grandfathered data plan and grandfather voice plan was to combine both into data plan number and give up the voice number. ATT did not force me into this. It is just how it works. A low cost unlimited data plan is more valuable than a voice phone number. I could have kept them separate but now when I order a new smartphone if they are separate I am locked into two two year contracts instead of one.
Bottom line I am just being cheap. I could have kept old number if I wanted to pay more per month.
Nicholas says:
April 27, 2012 at 11:02 am
JJ,
Um, you do know that number portability has now become a reality and you can keep your same phone number regardless of which carrier you choose? It doesn’t cost anything to move a phone number from one phone to another. The technology has been around for a long time but carriers refused to do it because it kept people from moving to other carriers.
It took Federal law to get them in line and now number portability is spreading around the world. I expect to keep my telephone number for life.
My bro out in Orange County Ca just got outbid. 1800 sf ranch 2.5 miles back from the beach in HB. Asking was 549,900. He bid 550,000 with the knowledge that four others had bid below asking. Winning bidder came in at 575,000 all cash. Just he and his wife with no kids. He needs to frequent this blog and understand the only pressure to buy is between his (and her) ears. Things seemed to have turned some out there. Many of the places he looks at are flips.
66 – 3b
So, why is it worse than any other business cycle? In your oppinion, is it to be feared?
Changed how? Why would that be bad?
The IT guys here followed another guy to start their own Mutual Fund. They left this place in shambles. No one knew any passwords, stuff was crashing like crazy, the Data Center looked like a tropical rainforest of wires. Desktops older than dirt, etc.
It was the perfect opportunity for me. I got to be the hero, do what I like to do, and clean it all up and fix it. Big changes were good for me in 2008.
I did the clean up at Bankers/DB, SocGen/Cowen, Hutton/Shearson, Chase/Bank Ones and on a few transistion teams. Even did clean up on 9/11 firms that lost people. Ugly stuff. People crying, people moaning and groaning. Worst was chase with like a dozen GLs leagacy systems and enough top side hyperion adjustments that made you want to puke.
Your husband should leave IT. Have him watch a few eposodes of “house of lies” on showetime and get hime a few good suits.
chicagofinance says:
April 27, 2012 at 11:03 am
Jill: I am only 43, so I am still freshly hatched in a lot of ways, but weathered enough to have seen some stuff. Additionally, my job allows me to gets the inside story on a lot of personal career stories. As always, you want to rail on JJ, but everything he says is true (if not embellished truth). At the end of the day, there is the Top Line (sales) and everything else is a cost. The most valuable people in the organization are the rainmakers. The problem is that the same qualities that allow a person to make rain come with foibles such as harassment, narcissism, sociopathy et al……jj is in accounting, so he is part of the “Clean-Up Crew” on a financial basis….the corporare secretary covers the legal angle……honestly, at the end of the day everything else is overhead……please don’t shoot the messenger…this reality sucks……the problem is that the survivors are the biggest bastards you know and you would never want to be their friend, or worse, married to them.
Amy is graduating Rutgers with a Masters in Library and Information Science in May. She is pretty psyched. Jake is going to be 15!!!!??!!!
Jill says:
April 27, 2012 at 11:09 am
ChiFi: I know you are only 43. I knew you when you were like 25, if you recall…back in the K-L days….
[60] JJ
“House near me sell quick. Usually bidding wars.”
And mosquitos refuse to bite him out of respect.
Looking at the shuttle flying around on the back of a 747 is an amazing sight and a reminder of the kind of things that great nations can accomplish. It is a shame that we no longer seem to have the will to do much more than consume products, grow debt, and fight wars of choice. Hooray for us.
72 –
– Cuba imports cigars from him
– He has inside jokes with complete strangers
Think I’m in the mood for some dos equis 2nite!
“And mosquitos refuse to bite him out of respect.”
Or fear of disease.
Not too many years ago, a house was seen as a sign of freedom. Now, for many, it has become a form of economic enslavement.
JJ: You want bad G/L stories…..I had to deal with bookkeepers from AT&T, FAS 133, and a PWC audit by nervous 24 year old CPAs…….I once told a banker who caught me on a phone on a Friday at 7PM that there was NFW I would do his POS trade because he gets to log his bonus numbers, and I get fcuked having to piss remedial finance lesssons to a bunch of automatons…..
JJ says:
April 27, 2012 at 11:22 am
I did the clean up at Bankers/DB, SocGen/Cowen, Hutton/Shearson, Chase/Bank Ones and on a few transistion teams. Even did clean up on 9/11 firms that lost people. Ugly stuff. People crying, people moaning and groaning. Worst was chase with like a dozen GLs leagacy systems and enough top side hyperion adjustments that made you want to puke.
Your husband should leave IT. Have him watch a few eposodes of “house of lies” on showetime and get hime a few good suits.
Chifi, if you were only 20 years younger I would hire you in a second. I dont think I can afford to make my cubes ADA compliant for the over 40 crowd.
chicagofinance says:
April 27, 2012 at 11:03 am
Jill: I am only 43, s
I have 25 years in corporate life from large multinationals to a small dot com start up, like I said the other day don’t act like a victim to a layoff, just don’t be a victim get out of the way well ahead of time. Most people see it coming and they play the game of duck and cover instead of moving on their own terms when they are still employed and valuable. Always jump ship well before the herd, even if it means a salary cut. Your skill sets are always needed, sometime for less $$ and sometimes at a lower tier sector but they are needed.
Anyone working back office these days at large companies even if they are a mission critical gatekeeper of fire they are not safe, the cost cutting is far from over. In-fact all of IT is in trouble and I mean every company. From what I am hearing large US companies like IBM are moving completely to a new services based model and they are going to slash tens of thousands of workers here in the US. If the MBAs have their way all back office will be outsourced and will be temp work just like Gary says. The million or so layoffs IT experienced in the early 2000s will be chump change. Is it right and will it work? It doesn’t matter it is all about the bottom line.
That stupid shuttle used to take off from the base in WestHampton beach and make some booms and noise all the time while I was trying to enjoy a cold beer at my house. Now I am supposed to get all excited as it flies by my office, the Concord, Shuttle and Yugos had their day in the sun. Today people just text each other then dont even need cars.
Shore Guy says:
April 27, 2012 at 11:28 am
Looking at the shuttle flying around on the back of a 747 is an amazing sight and a reminder of the kind of things that great nations can accomplish. It is a shame that we no longer seem to have the will to do much more than consume products, grow debt, and fight wars of choice. Hooray for us.
Better take some accounting and Finance classes if you are in IT and team up with Clean Crew to identify synergies and who can be outsourced. Best way to survive a slaughter is to switch sides. It is called “pivoting” in wall st. lingo. Dont be the victim, but the victor.
Juice Box says:
April 27, 2012 at 11:37 am
I have 25 years in corporate life from large multinationals to a small dot com start up, like I said the other day don’t act like a victim to a layoff, just don’t be a victim get out of the way well ahead of time. Most people see it coming and they play the game of duck and cover instead of moving on their own terms when they are still employed and valuable. Always jump ship well before the herd, even if it means a salary cut. Your skill sets are always needed, sometime for less $$ and sometimes at a lower tier sector but they are needed.
JJ – Many in IT are stubborn. That is their biggest problem, they don’t want to keep learning they think their little corner of the world like programming in COBOL will never go away.
Just look at this..
“With 50 years under its belt, Cobol is set to remain the dominant language for business applications for the next 50 years. Having consistently seen off the young pretenders, Cobol has continued to evolve to meet every new demand thrown at it, from both business and technology.
Business applications written in Cobol are faster, more precise and more powerful than ever. And now it’s easier than ever to run them on the platforms that make the most business sense – now and in the future.
The future’s never been brighter for Cobol. And that’s got to make life better for you, too.”
http://www.cobol.com/
#69 Different. And I will leave it at that.
Space X was supposed to launch Monday but has been pushed back to May 7th.
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2403555,00.asp
Dont trust the B
3B says:
April 27, 2012 at 11:59 am
#69 Different. And I will leave it at that
82-
Majored in Business.
Stay thirsty my friend.
http://www.hark.com/clips/kzdqcrmszw-dos-equis-commercial-5#?clip=pnnkzyzzsc
Jill #52 So true. And it’s not just IT, this fixation on AGE is true for all fields in the business world, even for contract workers.
Big hint at an interview (conducted by people in their 30s and 40s): “We’re looking for people who will grow with the company.” Translation: you’re too damn old for us
Speaking of salaries, it is not worth becoming a physician:
http://www.medscape.com/features/slideshow/compensation/2012/public
I’ll see your dollar and raise you a dollar.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304723304577366294046658820.html
Anyone seen Clot today?
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4283407/Man-arrested-after-central-London-siege.html
Shore 12:20pm, it is different here!
Slide 5:
“As in Medscape’s 2011 survey, the highest-earning physicians practice in the North Central region, comprising Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and South and North Dakota; the mean income of physicians there is $234,000. The next-highest earners were doctors in the Great Lakes region ($228,000). Physicians in the Northeast earned the least, at a mean of $204,000.”
http://www.medscape.com/features/slideshow/compensation/2012/public
What Steve Jobs taught me about “old” people and product development
With the formal resignation of Steve Jobs, quite a few stories are coming out of the woodwork about Apple’s iconic CEO. One of my favorite stories takes place early in Steve’s rise to stardom when he attended the birthday of a 9-year old celebrity. Steve’s gift to the young man was, what else, a Macintosh computer. As the story goes, Steve pulled the boy aside during the party to personally watch him open the gift. As he was showing the boy how to use his new computer, two “older” gentlemen came up behind them and starting oohing and ahhing. The two gentlemen, clearly impressed with what they saw as a work of art, started asking Steve questions for which he quickly dismissed them and returned his attention to the young boy. As it turns out, the two “older” gentlemen were Andy Warhol and Keith Haring. At the end of the night, Steve continued working with the young man long after the other guests had left. Later, when asked by a reporter why he was so much happier with the boy then the two famous artists, Steve’s response was, “Older people sit down and ask, ‘What is it?’ but the boy asks, ‘What can I do with it?”
JJ, too bad Jobs didn’t spend much time with his own kids.
Juice #83: 57-year-old DH is well-versed in SharePoint, VMWare, Windows 7 and Mac, as well as being Cisco and Citrix certified. Now what were you saying about COBOL?
Sima #88: Glad you piped in, I’ve been reading your posts. Here is what DH has heard:
“We think the help desk would be too fast-paced for you.” This to a guy who singlehandedly supported a network serving 200 users and did all the user support himself.
“He’s not the kind of person we’re looking for” — this after keeping him there 2-1/2 hours interviewing with 5 people.
And that’s if he hears anything at all.
We’re all for continuing to work…but how can we work if no one will hire us? I’m lucky, I’m in an industry, albeit a shrinking one, that is less age-sensitive than many. And it’s a good thing, too, or we’d have to try to sell our POS and live over my sister’s garage in NC until we found jobs there, probably at the Harris-Teeter night crew.
He knocked up some girl, was a deadbeat dad and refused to pay child support for years. But he is great for shareholders.
Double Down says:
April 27, 2012 at 12:35 pm
JJ, too bad Jobs didn’t spend much time with his own kids
ChiFi #71: Can’t believe Jake is 15. Last time I talked to Amy she was chasing him all over the house and couldn’t really talk and I was thinking, “Call me when you don’t need to manage Jacob all the time…like when he is 30.” Glad to hear that he has stopped needing all that attention sooner. And congrats to Amy on the master’s. I did mine from ages 38-43, so I know how hard it can be going back to school later in life.
Jill why does your husband keep looking for work in IT. Heck even selling new cars makes 100K a year,
[89] shore,
And after single-payer gets through, after the public revolts over Obamacare’s “unintended” consequences, you’ll need an interpreter to speak to your primary care doc.
“the highest-earning physicians practice in the North Central region, comprising Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and South and North Dakota; ”
The irony of medicine is that one can earn far more in out of the way places than large cities. And, in places like NY, a bad physician who is willing to live up in the hills, where they have a hard time attracting docs, can pull in a huge salary because the small local communities are dying to attract physicians and the local hospitals will put together deals that would make your head spin.
Posted without comment
http://www.gocomics.com/nonsequitur/2012/04/24
Goes for bar examiners too!
[76] shadow
still roflmao.
[85] juice box
“Space X was supposed to launch Monday but has been pushed back to May 7th.”
Didn’t you get the memo? JJ is opening his Hamptons house on Monday so he can’t fly Space X then.
From where I stand, I still see prices softening. Whole lot more activity than the last 5 years, but prices are still soft.
Had a listing appointment with a FSBO in North Haledon last night. Townhouse complex is about 5 years old and subject unit was purchased for about $580. Unit next door listed 3 days ago for $475. The neighboring unit is an end unit, so it is worth around 5% more. Told her to list at $449. Needless to say the owner is not happy. A smaller unit in the same complex with broken pipes and water damage was sold for $288 as an REO. It is a race to the bottom in that complex.
I don’t see how the housing market can recover with so much employment being of contract work and underemployment (minimum wage part-time).
Out of 4 houses in a row on my street, 3 had the main wage earner being laid off in the past year. One guy finally found a contract job on the west coast, packed up his family, and now his empty house is on the market; the second guy now has contract work; and the third is looking for contract work.
I personally am researching other towns/cities in other states to see where one can live on very little money yet have decent quality of life . Any suggestions?
Town houses in NJ are priced in Rupees
30 year realtor says:
April 27, 2012 at 12:52 pm
From where I stand, I still see prices softening. Whole lot more activity than the last 5 years, but prices are still soft.
Had a listing appointment with a FSBO in North Haledon last night. Townhouse complex is about 5 years old and subject unit was purchased for about $580. Unit next door listed 3 days ago for $475. The neighboring unit is an end unit, so it is worth around 5% more. Told her to list at $449. Needless to say the owner is not happy. A smaller unit in the same complex with broken pipes and water damage was sold for $288 as an REO. It is a race to the bottom in that complex.
April 27 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Gigi Stone reports on today’s top news including Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group looking to hire 3,000 people,
re #95 – Jill – those aren’t application development skill sets they are operations jobs. I am not trying to insult anyone here so take it constructively. Proficient programmers are in demand, ops can be done in the cloud and outsourced.
#86 JJ: I will just wait to say I told you so.
JJ reminds me of the cartoon character Eric Cartman. Being a manager on wall street, how does he have time to write blogs all day long ? Every manager I have seen on wall street, is so busy.
Jill [95],
It’s truly amazing, isn’t it? So, what is it that we do in this country anymore? A POS house lists for 550K with 14.5K in taxes but there are no jobs. What the f*ck am I missing?
#11 gary: Don’t forget, this weekend is national open house weekend.
3B [112],
They should change it to National Lowball Weekend.
Jill,
I’m kinda with Juice on this one. In the past there was a niche market for people who had computer and networking experience to help those who did not. You could have made a good living just helping people learn how to do simple tasks on the computer. There is a digital divide where the younger generation has grown up not knowing life without computers so they are expected to do their own simple tasks.
It is the equivalent of a secretary that takes dictation. Eventually typing was a required skill for everyone and secretaries that type out memos are largely a thing of the past except for the big bosses, who type their own correspondence, but keep secretaries for other things. In our company the one secretary is shared among 10 people and she does things like handle timesheets, faxes and phones (who faxes anymore?).
You have to realize that operational skills are becomming less in demand because the average knowlege level of your workforce in regards to computer operation is ever increasing. The challenge then is to continue to push the edge of operations or hook yourself to operating a system that others will not know how to use.
I myself work in IT but I don’t do much programming. I am just not good at it. Instead I focus on other skills such as building my own computers, networking certifications, distributed systems operations. I am a communications engineer so I do smart grid, and WiMAX and LTE systems. Anytime a technology dies, cough cough WiMAX, just pick the next best replacement and begin devouring as much information as possible. I spend my days reading standard specifications for LTE signalling networks in which the ink hasn’t even dried.
What does this gain me? Nothing more than being the first on the scene with the knowledge to get things moving. We have a saying in our company, “the expert is the person that knows the most about the topic at hand from the group of people assembled at the time”. I get called in as the expert on a lot of things because I simply took the time to read a book or manual even though I have no real world experience on doing these things. That is because no one has real world experience doing these things.
I feel your pain but don’t be too quick to blame it on age discrimination. I’m certain that age discrimination happens but I’m more inclined to believe that because old age often brings stability that you lose the desire to put yourself out there to face rejection. When I was young, I got told that I wasn’t the right fit for the company or group. I would then come back with a challenge, “I don’t understand what you mean, how can a smart person with solid work ethic not be a good fit for your team? I was born into a large family in a very competetive environment, I’m certain that if you placed me with your company that I would quickly learn how to swim among any group of sharks.”
At the position that I currently hold, I was told straight to my face “I want to be honest with you, you are not the person we are looking for”. I mean, who says that to someone? My response was “So who are you looking for? Are you looking for someone who is a good communicator? Someone who can translate complex technical specifications into real world implementations? Are you looking for someone who can interface between management and technical teams to be able to translate that technical task into something management can understand? Because I have those skills and more. A one-page resume doesn’t even begin to scratch the depth of my skills. Let me send you some more information.”
That is how a job is landed. You don’t sit there in the meeting and let them tell you straight to your face how you are not the person. You let them know in kind words that their judgement is flawed, you are the person, and that they are idiots for letting you walk out the door. You let them know that they would have been the hardest working person on their team and that they have chosen wrongly.
You have to realize that [INSERT HERE] skills are becomming less in demand because the average knowlege level of your workforce in regards to [INSERT HERE] is ever increasing.
Any questions?
I have time to blog cause my attention span is only a few seconds and I flip back and forth between blogging, work, trading, blogging, sports, work, bloomberg like a hundred times an hour. Plus I usually know the answer to questions off the top of my head, which helps.
Real trouble with job hunting a recent job I posted the consensus between HR, staff, hiring manager was we dont want someone to shy, someone too loud, someone to pushy, someone too meek, someone too experienced or someone with too little experience and someone who could do the job and someone who will be easy to supervise but does not need supervision. Also someone who views it as a career not just a job but someone who does not start asking for promotions right away. Someone who will be career driven but willing to sit in cube and do good job without complaining.
#82,
Don’t forgot Hindi and Cooking with curry. JJ is looking for the complete underpaid employee experience. A tan will help too.
Age discrimination is like pornography – you know it when you encounter it.
109 –
Saying things will change on wall street is like saying it will rain somewhere sometime this year.
Things are always changing.
I don’t always blog, but when I do, I prefer njrereport.com
Grim? My comment #119 is in moderation.
#19 Brian: I don’t challenege you on your IT experience etc. I have spent my whole career on the “street”. I may know just a little bit more about it than you do. And again, I will leave it at that.
Actually those people are easy to overpay
Bystander says:
April 27, 2012 at 2:52 pm
#82,
Don’t forgot Hindi and Cooking with curry. JJ is looking for the complete underpaid employee experience. A tan will help too.
3b
No problem. Don’t mean to offend.
You’re saying that there will be a change. Naturally, if you know something, you can imagine that it would make a person curious.
Not even a hint?
I think JJ nailed it on the head with his last post about “not too hard, not too soft, just right”. Most employers don’t know what they want or need and it is your job as someone who is seeking employment to analyze the situation, tell them what they need, and reassure them that they are making a solid choice in selecting you for the position.
I heard a story from my brother who said that he went to an interview in 1995 for a high technology company that was building out huge data centers. He only had 3 years of experience provisioning data links for a major carrier and they told him that he didn’t have enough experience. He asked them “what experience do you think was necessary?” They responded that they were looking for someone with 10-15 years experience in internet related technologies. He began laughing at the recruiter. The recruiter says, “whats so funny?” He replies, “10-15 years experience? 15 years ago it was 1980 and the internet barely existed beyond universities. Someone with 15 years experience in internet technologies, thats a funny joke that you made there. Call me back when you realize that the COBOL programmer that you plan on hiring doesn’t have the ability to do what you are asking.” He gets up and walks out of the interview and goes back to his hotel room. They called him the next morning before he boarded a plane bound for home and they apologied and asked him to come back for more interviews.
Even in our own company I find that Senior Manager says “we need more people” and tasks the individual managers to find out what skill sets are needed. Four managers respond with varying skill sets that are put together on one job req. The job req says “I need you to be a computer wizard, have vast programming skills, handle networking tasks, oh and by the way you need to have 10 years of experience in java.” It isn’t likely for one person to be extremely proficient in all these areas at the same time and that is because four managers came up with the requesition.
Don’t let that scare you. If you have some set of the skills then apply for the job, show them how you can grow to learn the other skills and get going. Often the recruiters don’t know what they are looking for, the senior managers are clueless, and the hiring managers have no power to get the skills that they want. You need to go in thinking about what ways that your skills are valuable and how you can parlay them into a position.
Nichols [126],
Everything you said is fine and agreeable until they hand you an AWK statement and ask you to dissect it. You can have 99% of the skills, drive and enthusiasm required for the job but some “genius” is going to take your interpretation of “his” little world and consider that the measuring stick. In his world, instinct and insight doesn’t exist.
99,
Nom,
Medicare patients will be killed off due to lack of access. Politically they will blame the Docs.
“Didn’t you get the memo? JJ is opening his Hamptons house on Monday so he can’t fly Space X then.”
There aren’t any WMD’s in Iran. JJ lives in Queens.
105.
Ive done some research on that topic. Texas.
Problem is where do you want to live. There is plenty of work in North Dakota.
111,
Gary,
There are jobs. My local Walmart is expanding and hiring 50 new employees. Welcome to the new America. It will get worse. I promise you this.
123.
Brian,
How does JJ’s _sshole taste? You looking to sit in a cube under JJ’s supervision?
Q to the board……as an employer…if you lay someone off and the severed employee collects unemployment, what is the cost (if any) to the former employer other than a rise in their UI rates?
Ability to read people in the key to landing jobs. I had one lady tell me my brother went to same college two minutes into interview and it is a good school. I said it sure is, when can I start. No need to go any further. Her pants were down her panties were around her ankles aint no time to be talking about the weather, all I can do is put her out of the mood.
Shore [77];
Not too many years ago, a house was seen as a sign of freedom. Now, for many, it has become a form of economic enslavement.
Its all about the price. If you earn less than you’re worth*, and live on less than you earn, you’re free. If you get paid more than you’re worth, and borrow to get through the end of the moneth, you’re a slave. Its really that simple.
* If you earn less than you’re worth, than your employer needs you more than you need them; you can always tell them to go to hell. If you earn more than you’re worth, then you need your employer more than they need you, and when they say jump you ask “How high?”
27. IT is actually a huge driver for the business end of the banking industry. “C” FO’s have a place in the executive suite for good reason. JJ is being contrarian.
JJ, who in the hell develops those complex algorithms and the systems capable of cashing in on them? It is insipid to insist otherwise.
I don’t always m@sturbate but when I do, I use women.
JJ sits at one end of the bell shaped curve, but that can all change overnight. When it does, not “if” he’ll face the same situation those who he is mocking face. It is called karma and it happens every single minute.
116. And you are not nearly as highly placed as you would have people think. Believe me when I say that if you were a player, you wouldn’t have time to hang here. Seriously.
Essex – Most C Suite execs I know spend their days managing their kids soccer teams and planning their vacations. Heck a Finance MD I know spends most of her days shopping online.
JJ [117];
So did Goldilocks send you here resume? And more importantly, did she show up to the interview with an outfit where the cut in her top met the slit in her skirt — which we all know is the indispensible quality to get hired in your shop.
Nom 38 You forgot smoke signals think F Troop.
I think Clot is moonlighting on ZH.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-17-27/should-we-kill-politicians-they-kill-us
144,
5 million guns are being sold a month in the US. Only a fool would play against that. Smacktards are running scared and they are going to be whooped. Its a cat and mouse game now. Who is willing to fire the first shot.
141. Not at companies worth a shit.
Ill go with Juice on that topic. My FIL is a CFO and he admits to spending his days in useless meetings. Its all about creating drama not production.
ag [145]
You just can’t imagine how well MLRS works on a bunch of guys running around with AR-15s.
145.
Cobbler, Vietnam is all that needs to be said. MLRS is obsolete. Civil war is not something I or anyone should wish for. Its going to get ugly. That I promise you. Be smart.
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