Otteau: 2012 still running strong

From the Otteau Group:

Housing Recovery Still Strong

The steady improvement in home sales can be seen in this graphic which shows that YTD home purchase contracts in New Jersey are running at their highest level in 3 years. Home buyers in the state entered into 7,235 purchase contracts during the 1st half of 2012 which reflects an 18% increase compared to 2011, and a 31% increase over 2010.

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141 Responses to Otteau: 2012 still running strong

  1. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    Rising home prices show traction in housing recovery

    Home prices rose for the fourth month in a row in May, suggesting the recovery in the housing market continued to gain traction, even as the broader economy wobbles.

    Other data on Tuesday showed consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in July but spending fell in June for the first time in nearly a year as Americans saved more.

    The housing market, which collapsed during the 2007-2009 recession, has been a relative bright spot in the economy this year, although it remains hobbled by tight mortgage availability and on-going foreclosures.

    “Real estate continues to show improvement off the bottom. That’s one of the few encouraging signs we’ve seen,” said Subodh Kumar, an investment strategist at Subodh Kumar & Associates in Toronto.

    Economists cautioned prices could weaken again once the traditionally strong spring and summer buying season is over.

    “The most likely scenario is that home prices will zigzag over the coming months, rising during the selling season, and slipping in the fall,” said Michelle Valverde, U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight.

  2. Anon E. Moose says:

    Spurs @ Red Bulls… That’s a win-win proposition for Meat, no?

  3. Fabius Maximus says:

    #2 Moose
    No, its not a win-win for him.

    From my side the NYC Gooners have been buidling a good relationship with the RedBull supporter groups. I can’t make the game but they were setting up a special section in the stadium beside the RedBulls suporters for the Arsenal fans. The RedBulls fans have been coached on some good chants.

  4. Ernest Money says:

    The Arsene Wankers will be relegated this year. They’ll prolly even lose both Spurs derbies.

  5. Shore Guy says:

    hey JJ. Have you had any run-ins lately with the TSA out in California?

  6. Fabius Maximus says:

    #4 Clot

    Can’t believe its been a year since the last time you made that dumba$$ call. Are you doubling down on the Toon for champions league?

  7. Ernest Money says:

    gluteus (6)-

    CL is a lock for us this year. The Dembas are not for sale, and the rest of the squad is rock-solid. If we can buy 1-2 more players, we’ll win Europa League, too.

    Top 4 should be much easier, seeing as how the Wankers will be in the drop zone before Christmas and Spurs will be no better than mid-table.

  8. Ernest Money says:

    Liverpool already looks godawful. Nothing like hiring a passing game coach for a bunch of stiffs who can’t pass.

  9. Comrade Nom Deplume says:


    Somebody tell the goddamn buyers touring my house.

  10. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Spoke to a guy who places short term rentals in the brig. Gave me a ballpark rent that sounds pretty good, but if listed with MLS, the broker/MLS cut is 10%. Anyone know if that sounds reasonable?

  11. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Wow. Just wow.

    One or two of you may recall I suggested that the Administration would suppress the release of two bad expatriate reports prior to the midterms? Reports that were required by law to be released not later than 30 days after a quarter end? And which were both released after the midterms?

    Now this:

    Basically, DOL is telling government contractors not to send WARN act notices until more is known about sequestration. In other words, don’t worry about your obligation to send notices 60 days before you anticipate layoffs; you can reasonably wait this out. BTW, the deadline just happens to be one week before the election if layoffs are to occur effective 1/1/13, which is likely if gov contracts and employment agreements are contingent on funding.

    Now, when I did read it, I thought it made sense legally, but one question occurred to me: Why didn’t DOL opine on this topic before? Plenty of opportunities. I cannot say that they never did but if they had, they would likely have cited to their own guidance in the letter, or not even issue the letter since there was already guidance. And if this was always their view, why did DOL let employers get sued and have to fight in the courts to get some clarity on when WARN applies? Why issue this guidance now?

    I’d love to hear how the board liberals spin this.

  12. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [12] redux,

    The more I think about this, the more I conclude that the DOL guidance is intended to also serve as an implied threat to employers not to send out warn act notices. There were certain passages in the letter that bothered me. I read a lot of DOL letters and it wasn’t apparent to me why some statements were included. They seemed superfluous and broader than necessary. But when viewed in this context, they make more sense.

  13. Ernest Money says:

    Dear Leader must be re-elected at all costs. The WARN notice thing is nothing, compared to the complete disregard of rule of law in bailing out the car companies.

    The best politicians use the apparatus of governance as a campaign/vote-buying tool. It is the only thing Bojangles has managed to do well.

  14. Ernest Money says:

    You can take the boy out of Chicago…

  15. Mikeinwaiting says:

    NAR in China sound familiar.
    “A “turning point” for China’s property market has been reached, says SouFun Holdings (sort of a combination of Zillow/NAR) Chairman Vincent Mo, reacting to company data showing the second consecutive monthly rise in new home prices. “It is very clear that China’s property market is coming back.”
    Meanwhile the PMI numbers all across Europe & China tell a different story of economic activity in those economies enabling this (dare I say trend) to continue.

  16. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Washington, DC (July 31, 2012) – Commercial/multifamily mortgage origination volumes during the second quarter of 2012 were up 25 percent from second quarter 2011 levels, and up 39 percent from the first quarter of 2012, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations.

  17. Mikeinwaiting says:

    MBA Mortgage Applications: +0.2% vs. +0.9% last week. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rate with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) increased to 3.75% from 3.74%.

  18. Mikeinwaiting says:

    All is well.
    China’s official PMI for July inches down to 50.1 from 50.2 previously, and against estimates for 50.5. New orders fall to 49 from 49.2, Production to 51.8 from 52, New Export Orders to 46.6 from 47.5.

  19. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Here is Europe’s number with the big gun Germany among the weakest number (43.0) if you start looking at it individually.
    “Eurozone manufacturing PMI comes in at a final 44.0 for July, vs. the flash estimate of 44.1 and down from 45.1 in June. “Output fell at the fastest rate since mid-2009… Manufacturing therefore looks to be on course to act as a major drag on economic growth in the third quarter, as the Eurozone faces a deepening slide back into recession.”

  20. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [13] money

    Oh, I agree. As abuse of power goes, it is chickrnshiite compared to the auto bailout. And it is useful legal guidance, but the timing is self serving on a couple of levels.

  21. grim says:

    Refi index at a 3 year high this week

  22. freedy says:

    Another sign the world is coming to an end. Snoop dogg changes names . It’s over

  23. yo says:

    “I have a lot of friends who have a lot more possessions. But in some cases, I feel the possessions possess them, rather than the other way around.” Warren Buffet

  24. 1987 Condo buyer says:

    I thought this PIMCO update was pretty spot on. Being trained as an actuary, I was always very conservative with expected returns and always wondered about long term rates above GDP, but figured I was missing something….

  25. Painhrtz - Yossarian says:

    of course the government and their agencies are a force for good. does anyone else want to dispute we live in a police state

  26. Bagholder Brian says:

    24 –
    If Gross is right, do you think this is positive news for equity investors that use the value investment style?

  27. 1987 Condo buyer says:

    #26, I’d let ChiFi handle that. It all seems logical to me, but then again, after 9/11 I would NEVER had thought folks would pay big money to move to lower Manhattan and raise families etc, and they did!!

  28. Bagholder Brian says:

    27 –
    Gotcha. It may be worth noting that the office where I currently work uses the value investment style on it’s funds. Bill Gross and Pimco recently stole two of our top Portfolio managers who invest using the Value style.

    I wonder if Bill Gross and Pimco are betting on a sideways market and value style stock pickers….

  29. 1987 Condo buyer says:

    #28, makes sense if “Value” means companies with real business and fundamentals that earn real money…..

  30. yo says:

    Don’t they always do opposite of what they say? If you want to be a winner,ask me and bet against my opinion.

  31. Ernest Money says:

    “The unrelenting stresses of a failing economy and the sense of outrage being felt as more and more people feel powerless against the oppression are increasing the murder and murder/suicide rates in every community.

    Always absent from any discussion about health care are the health care risks posed to innocent people by a system that devotes fewer and fewer resources to mental illness. If it isn’t bleeding it won’t be treated.

    The reaction in Aurora in the wake of the theater shootings has been a curious one, an increase in gun sales…presumably to take to the movies.

    The people who sell metal detectors must be just drooling having calculated that there are about 39,000 movie theatres in America.

    But, it won’t help. Anywhere people gather can provide an opportunity for a nut job to kill a bunch of people. The mall, the marina, the hospital, the amusement park, the day care center are all vulnerable. We don’t need metal detectors, we need mental detectors.

    You don’t need a gun to inflict mayhem and misery. Timothy McVey brought down a seven story building killing 178 and injuring hundreds with a U-Haul full of fertilizer.

    But, there is a bigger problem. We are a nation steeped in violence. We forcibly took this land and murdered those who stood in our way. I’m not pointing the finger; my family was leading the way.

    War is our primary domestic export. Remember when we were “hog butcher for the world”? Today we are the people butcher for the world. At the moment, there are 121 wars being waged around the world, and one way or another, we have got our hand or our arms in all of them.

    If we aren’t selling them weapons directly, we are supplying them through some sort of shadowy middleman. That is why there is the occupational title of “Arms Dealer”.

    This is how they avoid the brief but embarrassing revelations such as the Justice Department selling guns directly to the Mexican drug cartels. Text your friendly arms dealer and build a layer of plausible deniability. Those wild and crazy, though grossly incompetent, guys over at the Justice Department. What a hoot!

    Remember when we went to Iraq looking for weapons of mass destruction? We didn’t find any so we started to sell them some back in 2005. It does make you wonder how many US casualties resulted from weapons we sold them.

    Decade after decade we ask our young men and women to sacrifice their lives on behalf of peace and freedom. Or, perhaps more appropriately, the very lucrative military industrial complex that will provide both sides of the conflict with exactly as much expensive military hardware as is necessary to maintain equal strength and ongoing conflict among the foes.

    Remember when the goal was to end wars as quickly as possible?

    Being ever at war affects a nations psyche. Teenagers have never known a time when we weren’t at war. Warrior becomes a “career choice” for which they train on high tech video games. They are what we made them. Detached, indifferent, conditioned to violence and sometimes lusting for blood. Actual blood, not virtual blood.

    We justify drone strikes as necessary and send a message that, yeah, killing is okay, sometimes.

    Then it’s only a matter of deciding when it is okay, and when it isn’t. Liquor, testosterone, and mental illness obscure the bounds that normally hold us in check.

    With our economy decimated, the troops come home to no jobs and no safety net, and kill their families. How the hell can we be surprised by that?

    Our priorities are all screwed up. We have the funds for unlimited warfare but not for universal health care.

    Poverty is growing in the US not because of a lack of money. Look how much we could find to give the banks so bankstas had something from which to pay themselves 0bscene bonuses.

    Poverty is growing because of a vast criminal conspiracy.

    In the meantime, the global game of Ponzi continues because of our leader’s unwillingness to stop it.

    Doing the same thing over and over again and hoping for a different result is the very definition of insanity.

    Watch now to see if someone doesn’t step forward with the idea that maybe our problems could be solved if we gave the banks more money.

    Things are getting worse, not better. There will be more mass murders and horrific acts of violence, and they will not be fueled by guns but by the untreated mental illness produced by the stress of economic and social collapse.”

  32. Bagholder Brian says:

    I just fix the computers around here so I’m no expert in investing but I always hear them explain it like this:

    In order for them to buy the stock…
    -The company must trade below it’s intrinsic value
    -It must have good management
    -There must be a catalyst to “unlock” value

    The “catalyst” would be something like a new CEO, new invention, new miracle drug about to be approved by the FDA, etc.

    I imagine the style differs from person to person and company to company though.

    29.1987 Condo buyer says:
    August 1, 2012 at 9:31 am
    #28, makes sense if “Value” means companies with real business and fundamentals that earn real money…..

  33. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [31] money,

    Does that mean I need my gat when I come to pick up a case of vino in JC?

  34. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [32] brian

    Unlocking value usually refers to breaking up the company because the value is often less than the sum of its parts.

  35. Jill says:

    So let me see if I understand….when people with untreated mental illness bring guns into a theatre and shoot a few dozen people, the guns are in no way related to what happened, they are just innocent bystanders? The fact that a deranged person with a knife can only kill a few people before being taken down whereas one with a 100-bullet clip can take down dozens has nothing to do with it?

    God, we are a sick society.

  36. 1987 Condo buyer says:

    #34, hmmm..I though all the M&A guys got big money because putting things together adds value……

  37. seif says:

    They describe this as a “win-win”…it sure as hell is not a win-win for people who only bit off what they could chew, saved, paid their bills, etc, etc.:

  38. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [37] seif,

    DeMarco is just being cautious. The last time the government started monkeying around with loan portfolios and capital requirements in order to get out of a banking crisis, we got FIRREA, which led to this:

  39. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [35] Jill,

    “God, we are a sick society.”

    Precisely why I want my firearms.

  40. joyce says:

    What is your plan to get rid of ALL guns in society? Even then if they are ALL gone, how is a small woman or weak older person going to protect themselves from one or several would-be attackers? A weapon, such as a handgun, is an almost equalizer between two parties in terms of self-defense.

  41. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [31] money,

    “We don’t need metal detectors, we need mental detectors.”

    But then who’d be left???

  42. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [40] Joyce,

    It is possible to do a massive roundup. Australia did exactly that.

    Of course, Aus still has gun crime. And plenty of non-gun crime too.

    Further, there are some pesky constititional provisions that would get in the way, but these are not insurmountable if you get the right Court.

    But, ATEOTD, does anyone believe that (a) criminals will volunteer to turn in those guns that the gov. doesn’t know about, and (b) we won’t see gun-smuggling increase dramatically across our vast undefended coastlines, or through the mexican border (last time I checked, dogs can’t smell metal). I, for one, don’t believe that.

  43. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [38] redux,

    So what did Winstar cost us as a result of a generous regulator and an activist Congress? Here is just one result of the dozens, if not hundreds, of Winstar cases.

    BTW, all Winstar cases are about damages only. The government already lost; the trials are only about what the government should pay.

  44. joyce says:


    I’ve never been to Australia; does the police force carry weapons (guns to be specific)?

  45. Bagholder Brian says:

    Not always. But there is a group within them who works with distressed companies. They are not afraid to take over a company and break it up.

    For the most part “unlocking value” means the stock trades at a higher price.

    34.Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    August 1, 2012 at 9:45 am
    [32] brian

    Unlocking value usually refers to breaking up the company because the value is often less than the sum of its parts.

  46. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [42] redux,

    I stand partially corrected

    [44] joyce,

    I met a number of cops in Aus, and my recollection was that they carried. I suppose you can google that.

    Got New South Wales and Queensland patches for my collection. Missed out on Victoria.

  47. joyce says:


    Thanks. My original post was to Jill not to you, so know that I agree with you.
    I just want to point out that even after a “round-up” if the police still carry weapons than nothing has changed.

  48. A.West says:

    Remember guys, it was Republican Bush who bailed out the autos, started bailing out the banks, and started giving away free drugs for oldsters. Kinder gentler Republicans are even worse at expanding the mega-state than Dems, because at least with the Dems in charge, Repubs like to pretend that they’re against big government.

    No way either one of the candidates will roll back government over the next 4 yrs. O on principle, Rom on cowardice.

  49. Shadow of John says:

    it is not easy traverling when you are me. remove the * to make the link work*nis-got-him-frisked-at-sfo/

  50. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: need opinion….

    Coupon: 5.50% Fixed 1yr then:
    3 month libor+ 2.50bps
    3.00% Floor no cap
    Callable: No
    Payable: Quarterly
    Maturity: 08/14/17
    Credit: BBB+/A- credit watch neg

  51. prtraders says:

    Nom – down by me it is 1 months rent that the brokers split on a rental. No cost to tennant. They get nothing on renewal. This is in Ocean County.

  52. Anon E. Moose says:

    So I might as well make it official: I am now enfiefed in the state of New Jersey. Grim represented us in the hunt and purchase, and to my mind earned every penny and then some. It took far longer than I thought it would — more than a year, when I had thought that 6 months should do the trick. If you back-date that, as I do, to when we first thought that buying a house might be a good idea, its more like seven years. In that time I changed jobs to chase some dollars trying to keep up with the housing bubble, which in retrospect was a bad decision as I learned the qualities of the people I was working for when the recession hit in earnest.

    One thing I will say is that a significant motivator in closing the deal (from an offer and negotiation standpoint — not talking about the nuts and bolts of sitting around a lawyer’s conference table exchanging checks and documents) was the fatigue of the search.

    I have many mixed feelings. Despite believeng that I have just made the largest financial mistake (yet) in my life, I am enjoying my new surroundings and seeing my kids play around our property and with my new neighbor’s kids. I now have a drastically shorter commute. I am physically exhausted, both from the move — and I didn’t even do any significant share of the manual labor there — and from a full day spent pulling the rugs our previous landlord let us install, but wanted removed when we were gone — all done solo.

    So, fire away. Like Ernest (Meat? Clot?) says, where you sit is where you stand, so let the astronomical home price appreciation resume.

  53. Captain Sunshine says:

    So many new homeowners on! Wonderful! All is right with the world.

  54. A.West says:

    I hope you enjoy your new place!

  55. Pikavippi says:

    Keep up the good work with your blog, at least I am enjoying it and I can see that others are too.

  56. chicagofinance says:


    Milton Friedman, who would have turned 100 on Tuesday, helped to make free markets popular again in the 20th century. His ideas are even more important today.


    It’s a tragedy that Milton Friedman—born 100 years ago on July 31—did not live long enough to combat the big-government ideas that have formed the core of Obamanomics. It’s perhaps more tragic that our current president, who attended the University of Chicago where Friedman taught for decades, never fell under the influence of the world’s greatest champion of the free market. Imagine how much better things would have turned out, for Mr. Obama and the country.

    Friedman was a constant presence on these pages until his death in 2006 at age 94. If he could, he would surely be skewering today’s $5 trillion expansion of spending and debt to create growth—and exposing the confederacy of economic dunces urging more of it.

    In the 1960s, Friedman famously explained that “there’s no such thing as a free lunch.” If the government spends a dollar, that dollar has to come from producers and workers in the private economy. There is no magical “multiplier effect” by taking from productive Peter and giving to unproductive Paul. As obvious as that insight seems, it keeps being put to the test. Obamanomics may be the most expensive failed experiment in free-lunch economics in American history.

    Equally illogical is the superstition that government can create prosperity by having Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke print more dollars. In the very short term, Friedman proved, excess money fools people with an illusion of prosperity. But the market quickly catches on, and there is no boost in output, just higher prices.

    Small in stature but a giant intellect, he was the economist who saved capitalism by dismembering the ideas of central planning when most of academia was mesmerized by the creed of government as savior.

    Friedman was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics for 1976—at a time when almost all the previous prizes had gone to socialists. This marked the first sign of the intellectual comeback of free-market economics since the 1930s, when John Maynard Keynes hijacked the profession. Friedman’s 1963 book “A Monetary History of the United States,” written with Anna Schwartz (who died on June 21), was a masterpiece and changed the way we think about the role of money.

    More influential than Friedman’s scholarly writings was his singular talent for communicating the virtues of the free market to a mass audience. His two best-selling books, “Capitalism and Freedom” (1962) and “Free to Choose” (1980), are still wildly popular. His videos on YouTube on issues like the morality of capitalism are brilliant and timeless.

    In the early 1990s, Friedman visited poverty-stricken Mexico City for a Cato Institute forum. I remember the swirling controversy ginned up by the media and Mexico’s intelligentsia: How dare this apostle of free-market economics be given a public forum to speak to Mexican citizens about his “outdated” ideas? Yet when Milton arrived in Mexico he received a hero’s welcome as thousands of business owners, students and citizen activists hungry for his message encircled him everywhere he went, much like crowds for a modern rock star.

    Once in the early 1960s, Friedman wrote the then-U.S. ambassador to New Delhi, John Kenneth Galbraith, that he would be lecturing in India. By all means come, the witty but often wrong Galbraith replied: “I can think of nowhere your free-market ideas can do less harm than in India.” As fate would have it, India did begin to embrace Friedmanism in the 1990s, and the economy began to soar. China finally caught on too.

    Friedman stood unfailingly and heroically with the little guy against the state. He used to marvel that the intellectual left, which claims to espouse “power to the people,” so often cheers as states suppress individual rights.

    While he questioned almost every statist orthodoxy, he fearlessly gored sacred cows of both political parties. He was the first scholar to sound the alarm on the rotten deal of Social Security for young workers—forced to pay into a system that will never give back as much as they could have accumulated on their own. He questioned the need for occupational licenses—which he lambasted as barriers to entry—for everything from driving a cab to passing the bar to be an attorney, or getting an M.D. to practice medicine.

    He loved turning the intellectual tables on liberals by making the case that regulation often does more harm than good. His favorite example was the Food and Drug Administration, whose regulations routinely delay the introduction of lifesaving drugs. “When the FDA boasts a new drug will save 10,000 lives a year,” he would ask, “how many lives were lost because it didn’t let the drug on the market last year?”

    He supported drug legalization (much to the dismay of supporters on the right) and was particularly proud to be an influential voice in ending the military draft in the 1970s. When his critics argued that he favored a military of mercenaries, he would retort: “If you insist on calling our volunteer soldiers ‘mercenaries,’ I will call those who you want drafted into service involuntarily ‘slaves.'”

    By the way, he rarely got angry and even when he was intellectually slicing and dicing his sparring partners he almost always did it with a smile. It used to be said that over the decades at the University of Chicago and across the globe, the only one who ever defeated him in a debate was his beloved wife and co-author Rose Friedman.

    The issue he devoted most of his later years to was school choice for all parents, and his Friedman Foundation for Educational Choice is dedicated to that cause. He used to lament that “we allow the market, consumer choice and competition to work in nearly every industry except for the one that may matter most: education.”

    As for congressional Republicans who are at risk of getting suckered into a tax-hike budget deal, they may want to remember another Milton Friedman adage: “Higher taxes never reduce the deficit. Governments spend whatever they take in and then whatever they can get away with.”

    No doubt because of his continued popularity, the left has tried to tie Friedman and his principles of free trade, low tax rates and deregulation to the global financial meltdown in 2008. Economist Joseph Stiglitz charged that Friedman’s “Chicago School bears the blame for providing a seeming intellectual foundation” for the “idea that markets are self-adjusting and the best role for government is to do nothing.” Occupy Wall Street protesters were often seen wearing T-shirts which read: “Milton Friedman: Proud Father of Global Misery.”

    The opposite is true: Friedman opposed the government spending spree in the 2000s. He hated the government-sponsored enterprises like housing lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

    In a recent tribute to Friedman in the Journal of Economic Literature, Harvard’s Andrei Shleifer describes 1980-2005 as “The Age of Milton Friedman,” an era that “witnessed remarkable progress of mankind. As the world embraced free-market policies, living standards rose sharply while life expectancy, educational attainment, and democracy improved and absolute poverty declined.”

    Well over 200 million were liberated from poverty thanks to the rediscovery of the free market. And now as the world teeters close to another recession, leaders need to urgently rediscover Friedman’s ideas.

    I remember asking Milton, a year or so before his death, during one of our semiannual dinners in downtown San Francisco: What can we do to make America more prosperous? “Three things,” he replied instantly. “Promote free trade, school choice for all children, and cut government spending.”

    How much should we cut? “As much as possible.”

    Mr. Moore is a member of the Journal’s editorial board.

  57. yo says:

    Welcome to the Bagholder Club!

  58. yo says:

    Is it not the the top 10% of earners were the ones that got bailed out with the banks? If the banks were let to fold,is it not the investors,the depositors with over $100k are going down with it?In essence we are in a gigantic deficit saving their arse.Now they are the loudest to complain about the deficit

  59. Painhrtz - Yossarian says:

    Chi, with so many sacred cows to slay. Fannie Freddie, college loans entitlement programs, and the Military industrial complex. the world old Milty envisioned will not happen in my lifetime.

    Saw the idiots on Morning Joe this morning debating why Americans don’t save any more and how Canadians had past us as the savers on this continent. Somebody suggested it is because americans need everything now regardless of need buy on credit while the Canadians save and then buy deteremined on their need from their own funds. The crickets chirping through the TV indicated how lost the simple idea was to the panel of smarty pantses. It was too difficult for them to fathom that not everyone buys each and every item on credit.

    For the record, I switch between that crap and Fox and Friends for my morning dose of stupid.

  60. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [48] west,

    “The difference between Democrats and Republicans is: Democrats have accepted some ideas of Socialism cheerfully, while Republicans have accepted them reluctantly”

    Norman Thomas

  61. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [59] yo,
    The 1%ers are not complaining about the deficit. Why should they? They know that they won’t be at the table when l’addition arrives.

  62. Comrade Nom Deplume says:
  63. yo says:

    Not what I hear from Samuelson,Simpson to Friedman.Nobody will want to pay more in taxes to pay down the deficit.

  64. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    And this . . .

    Heathcare costs under Romneycare growing faster than national average? I’m shocked, shocked.

    I wonder if the folks at Dartmouth-Hitchcock are dusting off the welcome mat.

  65. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    And this . . .

    Heathcare costs under the Mass. heathcare system growing faster than national average? I’m shocked, shocked.

    I wonder if the folks at Dartmouth-Hitchco-ck are dusting off the welcome mat and planning any expansion in southern NH?

  66. daddyo says:

    Both times we have rented in the brig we paid one month rent. The realtor is getting the one month rent, but it’s up to the two parties regarding who is going to pay it. We were getting fairly good deals on both places, so we didn’t mind paying it.

    I really wish your place was on the south side of town, we would definitely rent it. We are very cramped, and the best tenants of all time.

  67. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [64] yo,

    In recent memory, no attempt to soak the rich has succeeded in producing more revenue. On the contrary, recent state examples show the principle of deadweight loss at work. National examples too and the rates haven’t even gone up yet.

    Idle wealth (foreign and domestic) will only remain here if it is profitable for it to remain here. For centuries that has been the case; it isn’t so clear anymore. I can easily foresee much idle wealth going offshore (oh, wait).

    That leaves the productive wealth that cannot easily leave. However, if we raise their costs through taxes, they cannot compete as easily, and if things get dire, they have two choices. Go offshore or go away to die. Both are not good for the economy or revenues.

    Paradoxically, you may see some businesses embrace protectionism and tax arbitrage. If we go to protectionism, that makes it exponentially easier for domestic producers (the only wealthy left here) to pass along the increased costs (read, taxes) to their domestic customers. Globalization robbed domestic businesses of pricing power; protectionism restores it. Business taxes are really pass-through taxes after all so who do you think ultimately pays them? Yup. As for multinationals, they weigh the decision to “redomesticate” all the time, and in the past 10 years, entire industries have done this. Oil and gas exploration is a notable example. Protectionism would, IMHO, increase the likelihood that some companies will redomesticate abroad while others may double down here. But there will be fewer fence sitters.

    But going back to my thesis: Soak the rich tax policy doesn’t create more revenue, it simply creates fewer rich in your taxing jurisdiction, and for productive capital, the tax burden is passed through to the extent feasible, something that becomes much mroe likely in the event of concominant protectionism.

    As for me, I just need to know what is coming and invest accordingly.

  68. yo says:

    Bringing taxes back to clinton years is not soakingbthe rich.they enjoyed long enough breaks.damn android

  69. chicagofinance says:

    I really do not watch TV except for sports, and sports on ESPN and FOX channels are almost unwatchable as it is… a matter of circumstance, I have seen Kudlow on TV recently while on the treadmill…..that show is shocking in its pointless and endlessly repeating structure….actually it has come to the point where nothing has any goal on TV other than holding your attention as long as possible….period…to the detriment of everything else…..even non-fiction/news…..

    Painhrtz – Yossarian says:
    August 1, 2012 at 12:29 pm
    For the record, I switch between that crap and Fox and Friends for my morning dose of stupid.

  70. chicagofinance says:

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    August 1, 2012 at 12:43 pm
    [57] chifi I thought Elizabeth Warren saved capitalism??? Oh wait. . .

    nom: You know what stinks…there are just far too many polarizing clowns like FlaccidMax around……they act as if their role model is Al Gore on the high school debate team…..everything has to be black and white; I win, you lose the intellectual debate……people aren’t allowed to share ideas without being branded a THIS or a THAT….

  71. Bagholder Brian says:

    And now for something completely different.

    It seems, the city of Los Angeles has made moves to shut down the medical pot dispensery industry. Additionally, pesticides from pot farmers seem to have a detrimental effect on the local wildlife. I wonder if the leftist environmentalists will also vigorously fight in support of a ban in order to save all of the helpless little animals?

    Marijuana’s Unintended Victim—Thumper?

  72. Bagholder Brian says:

    Hey have 3b and Gary posted here in a while? What, is everybody fully employed and now out shopping for houses? No time for njrereport anymore?

  73. Fast Eddie says:

    In case some of you missed the announcement the other day, Fast Eddie’s house is sold (under contract) and Eddie is currently suffering… Um…. looking for a house as well.

  74. Fast Eddie says:

    Wow Brian, deja vu there! :)

  75. Bagholder Brian says:

    Holy crap! The end is nigh!

  76. seif says:

    yeah…FabMax is a polarizing clown…not this doooosh-bag:

    Criticizing President Barack Obama’s health care reform law on Wednesday, Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.) likened the requirement that private insurance plans provide contraception coverage to two of the most devastating attacks on American soil.

    “I know in your mind, you can think of the times America was attacked,” he said at a press conference on Capitol Hill. “One is Dec. 7, that’s Pearl Harbor Day. The other is Sept. 11, and that’s the day the terrorists attacked. I want you to remember Aug. 1, 2012, the attack on our religious freedom. That is a day that will live in infamy, along with those other dates.”

  77. joyce says:


    Wouldn’t it be better to not force insurnace companies to include in a plan any particular product, service, etc? That way plans could be built a la carte for each individual/group when negotiated and purchased. Right now if a single male 36 year old were to buy health insurance, he would be forced to buy a coverage plan with all the state/federal “basic” requirements (even though he would never need some of them) And that premise works for countless other examples, I just picked an easy one. This approach does not help at all, only helps increase costs.

    Another example is why would insurace companies include in the coverage the cost of annual(ish) visits to a doctor (“regular check-ups”). That is a cost that is 100% certain going to be incurred. Why would an individual have insurance against an event that is guaranteed? The only way for insurance companies to price the risk of a guaranteed to occur event is charge the full amount plus admin/proft meaning you (the policy holder) are paying more for that service than you could if you paid on your own. (this gets even worse as you factor in company/group plans and the rest…)

    Oh, and the “debate” about covering contraception was never about access to contraception, only who was going to pay for it. Another case of cost-shifting. Increasing access to contraception could be achieved by lowering or eliminating the need for various prescriptions and consultations prior to being able to purhcase the products.

  78. Juice Box says:

    re #12 – Comrade- Can I place a bet somewhere that they will still send out a million plus warn notices right before the November 6th election?

  79. 250k says:

    Com Nom (10)
    When we rented it was one month’s rent as commission which the tenant was to pay. We said we would split it with the landlord and landlord agreed. Just be prepared for potential tenants to ask similar and I would bet the agent will agree to one month’s rent (8.x%) vs 10%.

  80. Painhrtz - Yossarian says:

    yo I’m convinced you liberals think the rich live like Scrooge Mcduck and have vaults of money that they swim in regularly. they don’t just accumulate wealth, they distribute it for goods and services. Sorry that they don’t spend it on the pet projects that you most favor but rather things they want, enjoy or dear to their hearts.

  81. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [63] Elizabeth Warren is an Indian giver.

  82. joyce says:

    my post (77) in moderation?

  83. yo says:

    Last time i checked,every penny of stimulus given to lower earner was spent.the breaks the top earners was reinvested or saved

  84. joyce says:

    savings = capital
    capital investment = good thing

    you really dont have a clue do you?

    (and I do not favor special/complicated tax treatment that favors one person or one business or one industry over another… but remember a tax cut is NOT a cost to government, it is the individual people’s money remaining in their hands, not the governments’)

  85. joyce says:

    “investment” in speculative and very high risk things is not a good thing
    those are only made possible (or profitable) with low interest rates & easy money

    high interest rates would end most speculation and gambling in the capital markets, but it would provide incentives for savings and investing in increasing our productive capacity

  86. Painhrtz - Yossarian says:

    yo and how many of those low income earners spent it on debt service. Which is unproductive spending.

    As for the rich, how is reinvesting money bad for the economy?

  87. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    It’s amazing how the “tax the rich crowd” are a group mutually exclusive to those with any detectable math ability. Let’s say the uber-wealthy 14,000 families that make up the 0.01% get to keep their money, becuase they make all the rules. That seems fair. But let’s say we confiscate 100% of the income the rest of the 1%. Said another way, the 1.35 million families that have incomes of $386,000 – $2,000,000 get 0 take home pay, nothin’. We take all the confiscated incomes of 99% of the 1 % and redistribute to the 99%. Well the 99.0-99.99% crowd only averages $717,000 per year, so divide that by 99 and $7,242 goes to every family not in the top 1%. Well, an extra $7K sounds nice but you just removed all incentive to work from any family that makes from $386K to $2 million and that will be a lot of shuttered businesses and a lot of lost jobs and 1.35 million probably pretty smart business people saying f*ck it to working. Who are you going to take from after that?

    Check my math:

  88. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [69] Yo,

    Taxes are a drag on the economy. Read Christine Romer’s paper on the Clinton tax hikes. The economy did not improve because of the taxes, they improved in spite of them. In fact, if memory serves, the economy got worse after Clinton did this, then recovered.

    Those with capital to invest will do so if they think that they can make money. The tech economy morphed into the internet bubble, which was flying high. Investors were making money so the tax drag was an irritation but not an impediment. But when you increase taxes in a riskier environment, you drive more of that investment to tax efficient uses. So yields should come down on better rated munis, and there may be migration to capital appreciation stocks rather than dividend payers. These decrease expected revenues, and if the economy doesn’t improve (and with no one investing, it is less likely), there is no offsetting increase in revenue. Hence, deadweight loss.

    [78] Juice,

    If you read the DOL letter, you can’t help but come away with the feeling that DOL is not simply saying that you don’t have to send WARN Act notices yet, its that you shouldn’t send them. The letter specifically noted that precautionary notices were not in keeping with the law, and further, that they could cause negative side effects. There were in fact two shots across the bow: First, you will be causing undue anxiety if you issue warn act notices (which we won’t like), and, second, there may be a legal cause of action we can take against you for issuing notices on speculative grounds so you better not cross us.

  89. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [84] joyce,

    “remember a tax cut is NOT a cost to government”

    Actually, that is precisely how they view it.

  90. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [69] yo,

    “.they enjoyed long enough breaks.”

    And Abner Louima should be thankful that the cops took a break to rest their wrists.

  91. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [69] yo,

    I think we can all agree that what Obama really needs now are:

    1. The collapse of all potential military antagonists, and

    2. a massive speculative bubble on the magnitude of the tech and internet bubbles.

    There, problem solved.

  92. joyce says:


    That is how THEY view it, yeah so what… they are wrong. Is that news?

  93. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [91] joyce,

    Never said I agreed; just that’s how they view it. At the core, the idea of money is a medium of exchange that the gov lets you use. The real question is do you own the underlying value? The answer, if you asked “the government” would surprise you.

    Really, if you examine the question, we are not that far removed from a feudal society in which all property is “owned” by the sovereign, who dispenses limited “rights” to tangible and intangible property. In our case, the sovereign isn’t one person in a crown but there is a sovereign nonetheless.

  94. Juice Box says:

    Nom – Funny thing is the DEMS in NJ made the requirement for the NJ WARN law even more onerous. The NJ law requirements set a penalty of 1 week per year of employment if the employee did not receive a warn notice plus compensatory damages and other little fines.

    Courtesy of Jon Boy Corzine.

    “Millville Dallas Airmotive Plant Job Loss Notification Act”

  95. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [90] Nom – Maybe benevolent aliens from outer space bringing lots of gold with them and looking to specifically buy fix-er-up houses, the more mold the better?

    I think we can all agree that what Obama really needs now are:

    1. The collapse of all potential military antagonists, and

    2. a massive speculative bubble on the magnitude of the tech and internet bubbles.

    There, problem solved.

  96. relo says:


    Congrats. May the “pride of ownership” envelop you.

  97. yo says:

    What we need right now is stimulation to create demand.Corporations are holding over a trillion dollars of capital that is going to dividends payment.I can appreciate savings is capital,without demand your capital will sleep.If to stimulate the economy is to give to one that will spend it,why give it to the capitalist that don’t have a customer or demand for the product.
    We have a slowing demand , PMI is slowing down.Giving the breaks to the people that will not spend it or open a business is no good,if there is no Think who really spend in this economy.It is the lower 90% of the population of this country.If they have nothing to spend capital has no customer.Even a clueless person can tell the difference.

  98. yo says:

    If there is demand,capital will always flow where the money is.It has nothing to do with taxes.Taxes is transfered to consumers

  99. yo says:

    Capital will not create jobs with out demand

  100. We’re a gaggle of volunteers and opening a new scheme in our community. Your site offered us with helpful info to work on. You’ve performed a formidable activity and our whole neighborhood can be grateful to you.

  101. 1987 condo buyer says:

    #98…wow, impressive, glad we could help! I am thinking a bunch of geese wrote this?

  102. Ernest Money says:

    All that is needed is a forcible overthrow of the United States gubmint.

    Short of that, we are well and truly fuct.

  103. seif says:

    i am sure a lot of you need a nice romantic Jerzee getaway after a long week of work and posting on njrereport. this looks like a great spot!

    “…we’re 66-68 years old….there were no gays or queers in our time…..if two old ladies chose to live be it, let them deal with God when they get there…but to have the ‘face sucking’ thrown in my face of two gay lesbians who are totally destroying the ‘normal balance in a child’s life’ as you claim your son…”

    “there were no gays or queers in our time” – man, that is great stuff!

  104. seif says:

    After a long week of work on posting on here I am sure a lot of you could use a romantic Jerzee getaway weekend. Here is the perfect spot!

    “we’re 66-68 years old….there were no gays or queers in our time…..if two old ladies chose to live be it, let them deal with God when they get there…but to have the ‘face sucking’ thrown in my face of two gay lesbians who are totally destroying the ‘normal balance in a child’s life’ as you claim your son…”

    “there were no gays or queers in our time” – that is just golden! assuming they are still alive isn’t now “their time? too?

  105. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [95] When I was 16 I had plenty of demand and plenty of stimulation, but those excesses didn’t translate into economic activity until I found a job.

    What we need right now is stimulation to create demand.

  106. SRK says:

    Hi everyone, I had been here a couple months ago venting it about my home buying process. I just closed. whew ! This is the house, listed at 235k – closed at 220k. Got a 2.95 for a 15-year. FYI and a big thanks to everyone here who pitched in with suggestions, advice and sometimes just a sympathetic ear which was most valuable.
    Seif, Mikeinwaiting and a couple others in the hunt, any luck ?

  107. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Congratulations SRK! Now kick your adult kids out and enjoy your golden years.

  108. SRK says:

    103, Thanks Expat ! Will do so ! :-)

  109. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [104] SRK – Just kidding. We all know NJ Kids don’t find themselves these days until their early 40’s (which is coincidentally about the time they secure power of attorney from their aging parents)

    Now kick your adult kids out and enjoy your golden years.

  110. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [106] Eh. Maybe late 40’s early 50’s. Anyway, you get the point.

  111. Fabius Maximus says:

    #32 Brian,

    The best run I had was the Enron play. After it fell, SOX came in a lot of companies started Re-instating earnings and their stock price got killed. Looking at their balance sheets and what they were correcting, it was shooting fish in a barrel

  112. Fabius Maximus says:

    #40 joyce

    There is a bit of a problem with that arguement,2933,563080,00.html

  113. Fabius Maximus says:

    #53 Moose


    I think Clot plugged your address into his GPS within 30 seconds of your post.

  114. SRK says:

    105 Expat, Of course I know you are kidding ! Well, yes seeing their growth rate it looks like it will be a long time for them. One reason we bought was also to set an example of home-buying, this point was made by another friend.

    The house is tiny anyway, unless we finish the attic or make some extensions. 997 foot ranch-style capecod with full basement partially finished, so about 1450 sq feet in all. We live in a 1200 sq foot apartment now, so it isint going to be much more spacious ! We will have to finish the attic and even make extensions to accommodate the kids even on a semi-permenant basis.

    Interestingly, where we bought the house all our neighbours are the same age as us – early 50s -, and all our kids are about the same age – in their 20s – only of course they all bought about 20 to 25 years ago when they were starting families. Since we have lived in the same town for 14 years now, our kids probably know theirs since they all went to the same middle and high schools.

  115. joyce says:

    What argument are you trying to make?

  116. Fabius Maximus says:

    #57 Chi
    I agree with some of Freidman, but also disagreed on a lot. His positions on Wage controls are a good explanation why Healthcare Reform will not impact whether a company hires or not. The big gripe I have is that his positions and words get hijacked and so distorted. For instance “that dollar has to come from producers and workers in the private economy” That is not what he said. His famous free lunch speech covers all workers, be they in the private sector or public.

  117. Fabius Maximus says:

    #70 Chi

    Sweeping generalization – check!
    Personal attack – check!
    No meat on the argument – we have a vegetarian special!

  118. Fabius Maximus says:

    #70 redux

    “people aren’t allowed to share ideas without being branded a THIS or a THAT….”

    Q: (not rhetorical) : You realize the irony in that, you are guilty of the offense.

  119. Fabius Maximus says:

    #77 juice

    That would be political gold for O. One million tossed out so the GOP can protect the 1%! Putting protection of the elite above the protection of the 1%!

    The ads would write themselves.

  120. joyce says:


    Wouldn’t it be better to not force insurnace companies to include in a plan any particular product, service, etc? That way plans could be built a la carte for each individual/group when negotiated and purchased. Right now if a single male 36 year old were to buy health insurance, he would be forced to buy a coverage plan with all the state/federal “basic” requirements (even though he would never need some of them) And that premise works for countless other examples, I just picked an easy one. This approach does not help at all, only helps increase costs.

    Another example is why would insurace companies include in the coverage the cost of annual(ish) visits to a doctor (“regular check-ups”). That is a cost that is 100% certain going to be incurred. Why would an individual have insurance against an event that is guaranteed? The only way for insurance companies to price the risk of a guaranteed to occur event is charge the full amount plus admin/proft meaning you (the policy holder) are paying more for that service than you could if you paid on your own. (this gets even worse as you factor in company/group plans and the rest…)

    Oh, and the “debate” about covering contraception was never about access to contraception, only who was going to pay for it. Another case of cost-shifting. Increasing access to contraception could be achieved by lowering or eliminating the need for various prescriptions and consultations prior to being able to purhcase the products.

  121. Juice Box says:

    Fab – if they can buy the airtime, methinks not…since history does rhyme…

  122. scribe says:

    Moose, SRK ….congrats!

    Maybe we should change the blog to NJREreport_housewarming :)

  123. scribe says:


    What’s the bond?

    Wondering where you’re getting that yield on an intermediate-term?

  124. Fabius Maximus says:

    #111 Joyce

    The point here is that the gun is not necessarily an equalizer. There is a certain level of irony on how Hain died. I’m not condoning it, juts noting it. Arming old ladies and even young ones may not protect them and in some cases inflame the situation. For instance, old lady gets mugged with a knife, goes for a gun and gets disarmed, has now created a worse situation.
    Guns for personal protection need to come with a higher level of training to cover situational events. That old lady needs to be able to show she has a sufficient level of competency to drive a car, I feel the same level of competency should be a requirement for guns.

  125. blogsle says:


  126. Fabius Maximus says:

    #116 Joyce,

    I don’t think either side will run out of airtime. Unlike the primaries, Mitt is not running against a Newt or a Santorum where he can outspend 10:1. Mitt may get 2:1, but that is not enough to drown the message.

  127. SRK says:

    117 Scribe, Thanks.

    53 Moose – Congragulations ! Similar sentiments here :-)

  128. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    I hear that president obama called michael phelps after he won his 19th olympic medal.

    Reportedly, he told phelps “you didn’t win that.”

  129. A Home Buyer says:

    110 – SRK

    That’s about the size house we just closed on as well. We didn’t need the extra space (nor did we want to pay for it). More space means the In-Laws can stay over longer, and also just allows more junk to be collected!

  130. Mikeinwaiting says:

    SRK closing around 15th, house about same size at 50 like you do not need the room. As Home Buyer correctly states just accumulate more junk. Congrats all buyers/ bagholders welcome to the party!

  131. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Bloomberg just reported that Knight Capital Group is changing their name to Ben Dover Capital Group.

  132. Mikeinwaiting says:

    On the lighter side In Europe today.
    ” Bild demands its spiked helmet back from Mario Draghi should the ECB chief launch a program to buy Spanish and Italian debt. The popular German tabloid gave the helmet – dating from 1871 – to Draghi several months ago as a reminder of Prussian discipline against inflation. The ECB chief keeps the gift in a prominent spot in his office. “

  133. seif says:

    128 – cling to it, hug it, love it. it is all the campaign has right now

    SRK – congrats. you mentioned me in a post earlier. i am not looking to buy a home right now, just following the market and the trends.

  134. Mikeinwaiting says:

    seif 131 I gather you mean 126 Nom’s post.
    UP all new thread.

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