From the WSJ:
Are Home Prices Rising? A Price-Index Primer.
Look for the S&P/Case-Shiller index to post a year-over-year decline of 1% when the latest results are released Tuesday, according to estimates from Zillow.
That would be the smallest decline in two years, when a short-lived run-up in home prices evaporated after federal home-buyer tax credits expired. Prices have been in negative territory ever since, as housing markets have struggled with a surfeit of homes and anemic demand.
But price declines are easing — and several other indexes are now reporting year-over-year gains — as the supply of homes for sale has fallen sharply. Those inventory declines, coupled with a modest uptick in demand, have helped stabilize home prices.
…
What the numbers show: S&P/Case-Shiller reported a 1.9% decline for April home prices from one year ago. Prices were up by 1.3% from March, though the increase was around 0.7% after adjusting for seasonal factors.
…
What the numbers show: The FHFA house price index reported that prices rose in May by 3.7% from one year ago. Prices were up by 0.8% from April on a seasonally adjusted basis.
…
What the numbers show: CoreLogic, a data firm, reported that prices rose by 2% in May from one year ago. On a month-over-month basis, prices rose by 1.8% from April. Those figures aren’t seasonally adjusted.
…
What the numbers show: Home values rose in June by 0.2% from one year earlier, the first year-over-year gain recorded by Zillow since October 2007.
From Bloomberg:
.U.S. Housing Recovery Tested as Economy Tempers Optimism
Rob Gray moved his family of four from Massachusetts to Texas, where he bought a new five-bedroom, five-bath, two-fireplace home built by Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL)
After completing the deal on July 26 for the $572,000 brick-and-stone house in Allen, about 30 miles (48 kilometers) north of Dallas, Gray and his wife Paula plan to spend about $30,000 on new furniture, appliances, window treatments and an outdoor grill.
“We’re not afraid to roll the dice, to take a leap of faith on the U.S. economy,” Gray, 47, an insurance-company recruiter, said in a telephone interview. “Things are on the rebound, and we need to get off the sidelines.”
As the residential property market climbs back from the worst collapse since the Great Depression, homebuilders need more customers like the Grays for the industry to enter a sustainable recovery and help drive U.S. economic growth. While orders for new homes are rising at the fastest rate in two years and housing may be a net contributor to the economy’s expansion for the first time since 2005, slowing job growth, tight inventories and a backlog of foreclosures threaten to put the brakes on a comeback.
“The gun is cocked with insane affordability,” Stan Humphries, chief economist at property-data provider Zillow Inc. (Z), said by telephone from Seattle. “The conundrum is why more people aren’t coming off the fence. Two things are keeping them on the sidelines: economic uncertainty, and the fear of falling home prices. And I think both of those have started to be reduced.”
From NPR:
Is Housing Recovery Real? Not Everyone Is Convinced
Gary Shilling, a financial analyst and well-known bear on housing, says the conventional wisdom — that the housing market is stable — is riddled with folly.
“You want to believe, yeah, yeah. Build it they will come,” he says with a laugh.
Shilling says he doesn’t buy the idea that millions of people have steady enough income to afford buying homes.
“Household formation is very much determined by economic circumstances,” he says. “And right now they’re very negative.”
In other words, just because somebody wants to move out doesn’t mean that they can.
“They’ve got to have the ability, they’ve got to have the motivation, they’ve got to have the cash, the job, all these other factors,” Shilling says.
Shilling is among analysts who believe there is a big inventory of foreclosed and delinquent homes lurking in the shadows.
In fact, last week RealtyTrac said that during the first half of this year, foreclosure activity was up in more than half of major markets. Shilling argues that when those properties hit the market, that will drive down home prices at least another 20 percent.
“Probably in the next few quarters, we’re going to see that the foreclosures pick up and that start to be dumped on the market and it’ll be a very different story,” he says.
He says there were similar blips of good data two years ago. Skepticism, he says, pays off.
From NJBIZ:
A strong focus on vacant property
Less than a month after Gov. Chris Christie vetoed a bill that would provide funding to transform foreclosed houses into affordable housing, another effort is under way to target abandoned properties for expedited foreclosures.
The measure, proposed by state Sen. Raymond J. Lesniak (D-Union), would allow banks to directly ask judges to enter foreclosure judgments once houses are abandoned.
The proposal is drawing support from groups representing banks, builders, real estate agents and housing advocates, who are eager to see the housing market be revived as quickly as possible.
…
Michael P. Affuso, vice president of the New Jersey Bankers Association, said judges have given reasons why homeowners should be given time to fend off foreclosures, but this reasoning doesn’t hold true for abandoned properties.
He added that the abandoned homes are collateral with no useful purpose until the banks gain control of them. “We care about trying to stimulate the economy and to get this collateral back, so that it can be put to a useful purpose,” Affuso said.
…
Housing advocate Staci Berger also supports the concept. She is the director of policy and advocacy for the Housing & Community Development Network of New Jersey. She said homes should not sit abandoned for roughly two years waiting for the foreclosure process to be completed.
“There are community (organizations) and investors that would like to restore those properties,” Berger said. “Part of the problem is that nobody can do anything with them. They’re an eyesore.”
Lesniak said the state’s economy would benefit from having the abandoned properties rehabilitated. “This is a way to get the ball moving forward in a positive direction,” he said.
Lesniak said he is aiming to reduce the time from lenders moving to foreclose to sending the properties to a sheriff’s sale from more than a year to three or four months.
“I’m not going to hold our economy hostage just because the governor doesn’t want to deal with the whole problem,” he said. “I want to keep moving the ball forward.”
Lets hope shadow inventory starts moving, We need home prices to go down at least another 20% in the tri-state area. It still aint affordable.
From Morgan Stanley:
Shadow inventory down 35% from peak
http://housingwire.com/sites/default/files/editorial/Screen%20shot%202012-07-26%20at%2012.19.04%20PM.png
People need increase pay by 30% so all can help housing recovery, starting with our towns union workers and wall street bankers.
Still looking for a referral for a good but reasonably priced carpenter or contractor to finish a basement in central nj… thanks
Veets 7 : have a guy did stu’s/libtards new place on my rec. all ok, grim send Veto my email please.
jj – Wild ass guess that the majority of shadow inventory in NJ is located in the following areas: Newark, Irvington, Orange, East Orange, Hillside, Plainfield, Harrison, Dover, Paterson, Camden, Jersey City, etc.
Just a quick scan on Realtytrac for Essex County, I was way off by saying half…
Newark – 56
East Orange – 23
Irvington – 21
Orange – 17
Belleville – 10
Subtotal Top 5 – 127 (80%)
West Orange – 8
Bloomfield – 8
Maplewood – 7
Nutley – 5
Fairfield – 4
Subtotal Second 5 – 32 (20%)
And we haven’t even gotten to the 3rd group yet.
Grim I could totally slum lord Dover. Would be less than a couple of miles for me to check on the places. The added bonus section 8 checks and or illegals to do my lawn for reduced rent win, win : )
http://hereisthecity.com/2012/07/31/corzine-wasnt-too-close-with-cftc-chief-review-finds/
The cover for Corzine continues . But this is a memory now, as most citizens think
MF Global is a TV show
http://hereisthecity.com/2012/07/31/death-plunge-banker-identified/
Senior banker takes a dive
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444860104577559410106617018.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Perhaps someone could explain this . These guys are elected to Congress in the
Dominican Republic but they live in New Jersey, you know ,the Welfare state .
Grim – shadow inventory estimates are 100k units in NJ about the same as the entire State of NY. Lis Pendens filings for Wayne are around 100 units, where a town like Ridgewood the number is around 15. We can pick on East Orange too the number is 314.
I am using Zillow data via foreclosure dot com which has only 23,283 per-foreclosure listings. Besides trudging down to the court house for 21 counties every day does anyone else have accurate data?
Forclosure dot com
State Info
Updated: 07/31/12 8:12 AM
Preforeclosures: 23,283
Short Sales: 3,052
Sheriff Sales: 2,025
Foreclosures: 2,015
Bankruptcies: 11,782
Rent to Own: 141
Tax Liens: 178,776
QuickSale℠: 7
Auctions: 15
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/india-blackout-on-second-day-leaves-600-million-without-power/2012/07/30/gJQA7j1LMX_story.html?Post+generic=%3Ftid%3Dsm_twitter_washingtonpost
In case your wondering why all the Gas pumpers in NJ are from India. (most are illegal )
Sad to say Ben wont let homes bottom. I lost out on my bank reo, but I will continue to look for a beach bungalow. Historically, going back to 1982 in sales data the 3rd and 4th quarter prices fall slightly every year and then pick up up in Q1 and Q2 combo of people actually moving to town YE with kids in school district and people wanting to close in March to May so they can actually either fix home up for summer or turn it around and get the big summer rental income.
I figure I will target October to February with low balls and cash offers and when one hits buy. I have to face facts the bottom is here. Regardless, even if I missed bottom I am still invested in bonds earning interest. Catch is before inflation comes I need to sell all my bonds over 18 years in duration to buy investment property. .
you fat lazy NJ people who cant pump your own gas is why your have all the illegal indians. They are overwelming your school districts and are free loading on food stamps and medicare. That free gas pumping is costing you a fortune. Self Serve baby, whats next you make ATMs illegal.
freedy says:
July 31, 2012 at 9:17 am
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/india-blackout-on-second-day-leaves-600-million-without-power/2012/07/30/gJQA7j1LMX_story.html?Post+generic=%3Ftid%3Dsm_twitter_washingtonpost
In case your wondering why all the Gas pumpers in NJ are from India. (most are illegal )
15 –
Freedy, that’s 1/2 the population of India by the way. It’s my understanding that many people live with rolling blackouts as the norm but I wonder how long they can go on completely without power.
Perhaps it can explain why India Gas pumpers living 10 to a room have no problem here in NNJ . At least they got lights and Indian food
JJ (17),
Sure, India’s government is incapable of managing electricity generation or transmission, but look at all the demand created by the millions of government jobs in the power sector. Krugman would be proud.
India is still living in the pre-Thatcher era. They need massive privatization, after which their economic productivity would rise significantly. Getting the government out of the economy would also help solve its massive corruption problem.
That goes for NJ’s state run education system as well.
We’ve got approximately 80k sfh resales taking place on an annual basis in NJ (2010 – 84.4k, 2011 – 79.4k, 2012 (saar) – 87k). In a more “normal” market, we’re probably closer to 100k, and in “hot” markets (2006), we’ve absorbed near 150k.
I believe the current market is inventory limited, that’s all based on anecdote and what I see and hear on a daily basis. So to some extent, I’m going to welcome additional foreclosure inventory coming to market as it’s going to spur additional sales/investment.
The point I was making was that even if there was a tsunami of REO hitting the market (which I don’t believe to be the case), it’s going to be focused primarily on areas that not many folks really care about. 200 additional foreclosures in Newark probably won’t do much to impact most blog readers here.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/07/water_main_break_floods_sctoch.html
a truly underwater situation
Besides trudging down to the court house for 21 counties every day does anyone else have accurate data?
I usually peek at Passaic and Bergen online every week. It’s where I get a sense of pipeline, especially properties on the verge of REO/Sheriff Sale.
Passaic is today – http://pcsheriff.org/civil/sheriff-sales.pdf – I’d be surprised if 4 sales went off today out of the 50 or so scheduled. No gems in this list, if they all came to market today, it’d be the distressed regions that would take the brunt of it.
Bergen isn’t much better – You can grab the list for Friday here – http://salesweb.civilview.com/SalesListing.aspx
I like freedy’s kinder, gentler xenophobia.
grim (1)-
This will go into the same file as “subprime is contained”.
“The gun is c0cked with insane affordability,” Stan Humphries, chief economist at property-data provider Zillow Inc. (Z), said by telephone from Seattle.
From the WSJ:
S&P Case-Shiller: U.S. Home Prices Rise 2.2% in May
U.S. home prices rose during May–the second straight month of improvement after a long streak of declines, according to Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller home-price indexes.
During May, the Case-Shiller index of 10 major metropolitan areas and 20-city index each rose 2.2% from April. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the improvement was 0.9%.
On a year-to-year basis, the 10-city index and 20-city index were down 1% and 0.7%, respectively.
U.S. home prices had risen 1.3% during April, reversing seven consecutive months of falling home prices.
Demand for homes has continued to show some signs of stabilization, as record low mortgage rates, some loosening of credit conditions and improved job growth have pulled some buyers back to the market.
Still, prices through May are down by about a third from their peak in June/July of 2006.
“We have observed two consecutive months of increasing home prices and overall improvements in monthly and annual returns; however, we need to remember that spring and early summer are seasonally strong buying months so this trend must continue throughout the summer and into the fall,” said David Blitzer, chairman of S&P’s index committee. “The housing market seems to be stabilizing, but we are definitely in a wait-and-see mode for the next few months.
Affordability gun:
http://www.aussiecampovenforum.com/yabbfiles/Attachments/backwardgImage1.jpg
Affordability so great…it’s INSANE!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yYGoO5imyY
Grim – Who wants to wait for the foreclosure sale? Typically homeowners are three to four months behind on their mortgage when the Lis Pendens is first filed in New Jersey That would be the time to strike, knock on the door and ask them to sell it via short sale so you can bid on it. If they are 3-4 months late they have already dug the hole, you could be the hero . Since the Short Sale process now requires an answer from the bank in 60 days there should be less an answer coming unlike the short sale nonsense occurring over the last few years. Anyone here ever attempt to do this?
Housing YTD does not look that great compared to boring old bonds. Sure it is coming back a bit. But could have got 8% ytd by clicking a button on computer on 1/3/2013. Not as fun as having a house, but easier.
Treasurys of all maturities have returned 1% this month through Monday, according to an index compiled by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.So far this year, they’ve returned 2.7%.
Corporate bonds have done much better, gaining 2.7% this month and adding to a 7.7% return for the year.
High-yield debt is up 1.7% for July and 8.9% so far in 2012.
29 – Why would they sell when the worst case scenario is they live there rent and mortgage free for the next 753 days? Best case? Loan mod? Principal Reduction?
You’d have better luck scaring their neighbors into selling to you. After all, it’s inevitable that the foreclosure will turn into a crack den, meth lab, brothel, etc.
Veto,
From yesterday:
I believe they may have changed ownership in the interim, but these were the guys. We had interviewed a bunch of options and most were patently ridiculous for our wants. These guys were reasonable, particularly after negotiating. We had @ 500 sq. ft. completely unfinished. Used wood studs and plain vanilla sheet rock incl. ceiling with a couple of closets and mechanicals boxed in. We painted and stained the concrete floor ourselves. No frills as we’re not going to be there forever. Dave, the actual on-site guy was great. Their electrician sucked and we wound up using ours to finish up. I know you will allow for these instances in any payment plan. $5k well spent as the kids are down there all the time.
http://www.superpages.com/bp/West-Nyack-NY/Basement-Store-L2118434212.htm
#32 Veto / Relo – Be careful finishing a basement with “plain vanilla drywall” if you’re planning on staying in your home any length of time. Drywall is a sponge for water and most any basement has a high moisture content. In 3-5 years, you’ll be looking to replace all the drywall that went in. A better choice is greenboard, even better is paperless drywall, and the best choice is going with a densglass board and skim coating, but you’ll pay a pretty penny for that option. Least expensive is not always the best way to go. Good luck!
29: Sean,
In my limited experience, you are not seen as the hero to people who find themselves in these circumstances.
Besides, Obama is going to pay their mortgage,
I love my basement. There I have an extra bedroom, full bath, 100 inch projector screen, dual subwoofers, pool table, wet bar, and walkout double doors to patio. Plus it stays 5 degrees cooler than the first and second floors. Never shows signs of wetness in finished portion. Even after last years’ hurricane followed by more rainstorms, the worst that happened was a tiny bit of dampness on the cinderblocks in the unfinished portion.
33 –
I can attest to that. I tore out all of the mold ridden drywall of my basement which was finished in the 80’s. Totally disgusting. Even the studs were covered with black mold.
Neanderthal, #7
Try:
TISEO CONSTRUCTION INC
114 PRINCETON AVE
RAHWAY, NJ 07065-1533 | (732) 404-0478
Used wood studs and plain vanilla sheet rock incl. ceiling
Rigid foam core insulation (XPS)? Vapor Barrier? Insulation? Anti-wicking/Capillary break? Thermal breaks? Treated lumber for floor plates?
33: Yes, understood. Not saying it was the best choice for the long term, but went in with eyes open. Thanks.
Besides, I’m never down there./jk
35 –
You live in a new-ish McMansion right? My ill-informed guess is that finishing the basement of a home of that era with a poured foundation you’re probably all right. However, in my case, a 60+ year old block foundation = bad idea.
[27] ernest
Post of the Day!
Brian,
Built in 92. I was initially fearful because there was no sump pump, and never owned a home with a basement before this one. There were some homes in my development that appeared to need basement pump-outs after the big rains last year, so I figure they must have built my basement right.
[156] [prior] Fabius,
“there was no chance you would go postal as you had too much to lose”
That assumes rationality on the part of the one going postal. They don’t strike me as rational at all.
[42] west,
Same here. My house is about 80+ years old but there are no permeable surfaces near the uphill slope (which is negligible). No sump pump but no flooding, even after Irene, which made my yard look like a lake and flooded nearly all of my neighbors. Did get a bit of seep but it was something I could mop up with a paper towel.
And no, I’m not related to Eddie Money.
Thanks , I have recently been looking for information about this topic for a long time and yours is the greatest I have discovered till now. However, what in regards to the conclusion? Are you certain concerning the supply?|What i don’t understood is in fact how you are not really much more well-preferred than you might be now. You’re very intelligent.
Grim – a house will get approved for short sale well before a house goes up for a sheriff sale. There has to be an approach for this after all there are allot of deadbeats who will squat but there are still also good people out there who do short sale the house now today. What convinces them to do so a realtor or perhaps a Judge in a divorce? I am looking for a way to not have to wade into the foreclosure sewer again. I have seen enough of those to stay away for good.
I’m the same way I do my best to remain neutral. It’s hard if you communicate with the person the other person dislikes then you fall out of favor with them! I simple can’t dislike a person just because someone else does I just can’t.
http://www.fadeplex.com
Gary,
I suspect you will like this:
http://dksheets.posterous.com/my-career-ended-while-i-was-in-the-bathroom
Symbolism and significance crashed down on me Friday. In my bathroom.
That’s when and where I learned that my 25-year career in newspaper journalism had ended.
Sure, I had a grander, more noble exit in mind, something perhaps akin to a Viking funeral or a Kardashian wedding.
But to my employer, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, and specifically its owner, Lee Enterprises, I had devolved into a liability: an obstacle to executive profits. So, Friday morning, as I was midway through my first cup of coffee, but not before I washed the sleep from my face, a call came to me at home intended to punctuate this corporate belief.
snip
the phone chirped Friday not three feet from where I was … uh, in repose … and the glowing caller ID number announced who it was, the timing proved bizarrely perfect. Rumors of layoffs at my workplace had circulated much of the week and began coming true Thursday, when almost half a dozen newsroom managers were released. Many non-management personnel were expected to get the ax Friday.
So, I reached over and picked up on the third ring.
“Hello, David?” said a voice belonging to the person who hired me 14 years ago. To make clear this wasn’t a social call, he gave his name perfunctorily, then cleared his throat. He sounded tinny, hollow, because he was on a speaker phone with a woman from the human resources office.
“This call is … well … I regret to tell you that your name is on a list of positions Lee believes should be eliminated …,” he started.
snip
Toward the end of the two minute call, there was a pause followed by, “I’d like to thank you for your years of service,” and here I realized the optimum response might have been to press down the toilet handle.
However, I resisted, because Lee Enterprises beat me to it. Earlier in the week, the company reported a $1.5 million loss in the last business quarter. A day later, it handed President and CEO Mary Junck a gift of stock shares in excess of $650,000. Then, Thursday, the first of 23 layoffs from the Post-Dispatch, me included, were announced.
There had been layoffs in May as well, plus cancelled bond and securities sales intended to mitigate debt, all of which were prefaced by Junck receiving a bonus of $500,000, ostensibly for her warding off creditors after Lee filed for Chapter 11 in December.
snip
Oddly you also described a times share peep show booth.
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
July 31, 2012 at 11:54 am
[42] west,
Same here. My house is about 80+ years old but there are no permeable surfaces near the uphill slope (which is negligible). No sump pump but no flooding, even after Irene, which made my yard look like a lake and flooded nearly all of my neighbors. Did get a bit of seep but it was something I could mop up with a paper towel.
I would love to wash his greedy splattered body off the street with urine
12.freedy says:
July 31, 2012 at 8:44 am
http://hereisthecity.com/2012/07/31/death-plunge-banker-identified/
Senior banker takes a dive
Mitt is great:
“Mitt Romney Lavishes Praise On Israel’s Socialist, Government Controlled Healthcare System”
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2012/07/30/whiplash-mitt-romney-lavishes-praise-on-israels-socialist-government-controlled-healthcare-system/?source=Patrick.net
Mitt is like the housing market of recent years. He is a slowmoving trainwreck who everyone keeps saying is bound to get better soon. I have little faith that he will.
53 – and how do you feel about the housing market?
It looks better than Mitt.
WTF is wrong with Bloomberg? Doesn’t he know that the latch on crowd is about as looney as they get? Next thing you know he is going to be promoting pre-chewing food before the child eats it.
http://wtvr.com/2012/07/31/nyc-mayor-supports-breastfeeding-proposes-strict-ban-on-baby-formula/
[50] JJ
Surely a swordsman of your legendary magnetism needn’t frequent peep shows. Doesn’t every woman you pass on the street try to unzip your fly and, ahem, peform services right there on the spot?
[56] juice,
The science is solid enough, but he has thrown in his lot with the zealots.
I am waiting to see when the first TRO petition is filed, alleging interference with interstate commerce.
Plume,
Odd as it seems it is the guys who do that and not the women.
23- Grim, Do you happen to have a source like this for Middlesex County?
#59 everyone knows that jj swimgs the other way.
There goes the October surprise? The Dems may need to setup DeMarco in a Hotel with a you boy intern or something.
July 31 (Bloomberg) — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac won’t forgive principal on delinquent mortgages they guarantee even as the U.S. Treasury Department is offering incentive payments for writedowns, the companies’ regulator said today.
Months of analysis showed there would be no clear benefit to taxpayers if the Federal Housing Finance Agency were to change its longstanding policy barring the government-owned mortgage-finance companies from loan modifications that include debt writedowns, Edward J. DeMarco, the agency’s acting director, said today said at a briefing with reporters.
“We concluded the potential benefit was too small and uncertain relative to unknown costs and risks,” DeMarco said.
The decision comes after months of mounting pressure to reverse the policy from activist groups and congressional Democrats, who touted it as a way to keep more families from losing their homes to foreclosure. FHFA has been in discussions since January with Treasury officials, who offered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as much as 63 cents for each dollar of principal reduction, using unspent funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner criticized the decision today in a letter to DeMarco.
“I do not believe it is the best decision for the country,” Geithner wrote. “The use of targeted principal reductions by the GSEs would provide much-needed help to a significant number of troubled homeowners.”
http://www.sfgate.com/business/bloomberg/article/FHFA-Rejects-U-S-Treasury-Request-for-Mortgage-3750612.php
FlabMax:
Do you ever ask questions, other than rhetorical ones?
Did you ever consider that your opinions are in fact opinions….not self-evident truth?
Did you ever consider that precision of something wrong is then precisely wrong, and a well-supported poor argument is a poor argument?
Whatever…..you are truly disappointing and wholely inert…..
WORK & FAMILY
The Case for Lying to Yourself
Some Self-Deception Can Boost Power and Influence; Starts as Young as Age 3
By SUE SHELLENBARGER
Lying to yourself—or self-deception, as psychologists call it—can actually have benefits. And nearly everybody does it, based on a growing body of research using new experimental techniques.
Self-deception isn’t just lying or faking, but is deeper and more complicated, says Del Paulhus, psychology professor at University of British Columbia and author of a widely used scale to measure self-deceptive tendencies. It involves strong psychological forces that keep us from acknowledging a threatening truth about ourselves, he says.
Believing we are more talented or intelligent than we really are can help us influence and win over others, says Robert Trivers, an anthropology professor at Rutgers University and author of “The Folly of Fools,” a 2011 book on the subject. An executive who talks himself into believing he is a great public speaker may not only feel better as he performs, but increase “how much he fools people, by having a confident style that persuades them that he’s good,” he says.
Researchers haven’t studied large population samples to compare rates of self-deception or compared men and women, but they know based on smaller studies that it is very common. And scientists in many different disciplines are drawn to studying it, says Michael I. Norton, an associate professor at Harvard Business School. “It’s also one of the most puzzling things that humans do.”
Researchers disagree over what exactly happens in the brain during self-deception. Social psychologists say people deceive themselves in an unconscious effort to boost self-esteem or feel better. Evolutionary psychologists, who say different parts of the brain can harbor conflicting beliefs at the same time, say self-deception is a way of fooling others to our own advantage.
In some people, the tendency seems to be an inborn personality trait. Others may develop a habit of self-deception as a way of coping with problems and challenges.
Behavioral scientists in recent years have begun using new techniques in the laboratory to predict when and why people are likely to deceive themselves. For example, they may give subjects opportunities to inflate their own attractiveness, skill or intelligence. Then, they manipulate such variables as subjects’ mood, promises of rewards or opportunities to cheat. They measure how the prevalence of self-deception changes.
As early as age 3, children have what researchers call a “positivity bias”—a tendency to see themselves as smart regardless of their abilities, and to exaggerate positive traits in others, says a 2010 study in the journal Child Development Perspectives. By adolescence, one-fourth of college-bound students rate themselves in the top 1% in their ability to get along with others, research shows.
In a separate study, female students who take leadership positions on campus score higher on measures of self-deception, based on recent research by Dr. Keating. Women who aspire to leadership may have to “conveniently forget about some negatives,” such as the fact that “women who behave in a dominant fashion may be perceived as more masculine,” Dr. Keating says.
Many people have a way of “fooling their inner eye” to believe they are more successful or attractive than they really are, Dr. Trivers says. When people are asked to choose the most accurate photo of themselves from an array of images that are either accurate, or altered to make them look up to 50% more or less attractive, most choose the photo that looks 20% better than reality, research shows.
Many people deceive themselves to avoid making difficult changes. For years, Greg Duval piled on pounds while telling himself “I just needed to go for a run” to take off extra weight, he says. A former high-school quarterback, “I had that ‘man up’ mentality: ‘Guys don’t need personal trainers,'” says Mr. Duval, a Dallas sales executive. The rationale helped him feel as if he was in control, but gave him an excuse to put off exercise. Recently, as he approached age 50, he decided, “No more playing games with myself,” he says. Working with a trainer, Mallory Mansour Dubuclet, he has taken off 53 pounds since last winter. In the realm of health and fitness, Ms. Dubuclet says, “many people kid themselves about how much they can eat, or how much exercise they are doing.”
It takes a certain amount of self-discipline to keep self-deception from becoming a hindrance on the job or in relationships. Getting too wrapped up in achievements or public image is one danger sign. Dodging a chronic problem by telling yourself you’ll solve it in the future is another.
The trick, Dr. Norton says, is finding the line. While “a little bit of self-deception isn’t an unhealthy thing, a lot is an extremely unhealthy thing.” Benefits tend to come, research shows, when people simply block out negative thoughts, envision themselves enjoying future successes or take an optimistic view of their abilities—all of which tend to improve performance or persuasive ability.
For some people, self-deception becomes a habit, spinning out of control and providing a basis for more lies. In research co-written by Dr. Norton and published last year in Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, college students who were given an answer key to an intelligence test, allowing them to cheat, scored higher than a control group. They later predicted, however, that they also would score higher on a second test without being allowed to cheat. They were “deceiving themselves into believing their strong performance was a reflection of their ability,” the study says.
Giving them praise, a certificate of recognition, made the self-deception even worse: The students inflated their predicted future scores even more.
Just as phony war heroes come to believe they actually won medals for valor, cheaters come to believe their own lies, Dr. Norton says. “They forget very quickly,” he says, “that there were situational factors that propelled them forward.”
Thank God I was born perfect.
chicagofinance says:
July 31, 2012 at 3:17 pm
FlabMax:
Do you ever ask questions, other than rhetorical ones?
Did you ever consider that your opinions are in fact opinions….not self-evident truth?
Did you ever consider that precision of something wrong is then precisely wrong, and a well-supported poor argument is a poor argument?
Whatever…..you are truly disappointing and wholely inert…..
It is a “something about mary” thing,
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
July 31, 2012 at 2:23 pm
[50] JJ
Surely a swordsman of your legendary magnetism needn’t frequent peep shows. Doesn’t every woman you pass on the street try to unzip your fly and, ahem, peform services right there on the spot?
63 can we not all get a long?
Didn’t Jagger write “Start me up” after an encounter with JJ at Plato’s Retreat back in 1980?
Mikey, Relo, Scribe, Thanks!
Im going with a very simple finish, no bathroom and i might do the sheetrock ceiling even though we have 8ft down there . The basement is super dry poured concrete and it has huge english basement windows so im leaving it all wide open to allow the light to reach all corners, one big play room for the kids except for the office aka man cave. I might try to keep it slightly industrial by painting a concrete wall instead of sheetrocking it or leaving the two main wood beams and steel support poles exposed. I want it finished and clean but also dont want to hide the fact that its a basrment. Ill post before and after pics when its all done. Thanks again!
Hmmm…methinks that fabmax gives chicagofinance a boner.
67 I thought musk rat love was jj s song?
I met Mick one night and wanted to talk but he blew it.
As long as all ya’ll are down in the gutter today, stop by the Stone Pony tonight and tell them that the Devil made you show up:
http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m5ufndBq1G1qa4l7o.jpg
72 that is the jj way to swing both ways in fact many ways and everyday even holidays.
#63 Chi
“Do you ever ask questions, other than rhetorical ones?”
Yes, but like most people on here, there are few subjects that I don’t have an opinion on, so technically, most of my questions will be rhetorical.
“Did you ever consider that your opinions are in fact opinions….not self-evident truth?”
Yes, I do consider my options to be just options. If I consider them to be self-evident truths, then they are beliefs. I am also entitled to them, as are you to yours. If you want to try and change my opinions I am open to discussion, but you are going to need more than sweeping generalizations and hyperbole to change them.
“Did you ever consider that precision of something wrong is then precisely wrong, and a well-supported poor argument is a poor argument?”
While there is no such thing as a little bit pregnant, can you precisely answer the question does God exist? A well supported argument cannot be a poor argument. If you can’t dismiss the support, you can’t dismiss the argument.
If you want to debate the issues, step to the plate and put some meat on your arguments.
“I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.”
In this honest world, what are the chances that an unscrupulous loan officer did anything improper. There are, after all, professional ethics to consider.
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/07/26/womans-on-the-hook-for-a-25-000-student-loan-she-never-knew-ex/
Alice Cortes, 57, would be able to end her $25,000 student loan nightmare if only she could answer one question:
Who is Jorge Torres?
According to private student lender Sallie Mae, Torres was listed as a co-signer on the $13,000 Parents PLUS loan they issued to Cortes on behalf of her son, Brandon, in 2002. At the time, Brandon had enrolled to study IT network administration at the for-profit technology school Chubbs Institute in New York.
But as far as Cortes knows, Jorge Torres doesn’t exist. To top it off, she had no idea a student loan was issued under her name at all.
The Confusion Begins
“When applying for financial aid (my son and I) were told that before he could be considered for any other aid, I had to apply for a parents loan,” says Cortes, who was accepting welfare assistance at the time. “When I filled the application, I told the financial aid office there’s no way they’re going to approve this. How can you make a loan for that amount of money to somebody who’s making $13,000 a year?”
Time passed, and when she never heard back from Sallie Mae, she assumed her hunch was right –– she wasn’t a viable loan candidate.
Her son completed his nine-month program with no questions asked, and they figured federal student aid had been enough to cover the bill.
Then in late 2004 Sallie Mae came calling, with their lawyer in tow. The lender claimed they issued her a $13,000 loan and sued her for defaulted payments. According to the loan application included in their complaint, Cortes had applied for the loan with a co-signer by the name of Jorge Torres.
“I never lived with any male by the name of Jorge Torres,” says Cortes, who by that time had moved to Florida after being laid off from her job in New York. Someone by his name had signed the promissory note, however, and listed her income as $20,000 per year, about double her actual earnings.
snip
#64 jj
I used to be conceited, but now I’m perfect!
Just because you believe something is true has no bearing on whether it is true or not.
Fabius Maximus says:
July 31, 2012 at 4:53 pm
#63 Chi
“Do you ever ask questions, other than rhetorical ones?”
Yes, but like most people on here, there are few subjects that I don’t have an opinion on, so technically, most of my questions will be rhetorical.
“Did you ever consider that your opinions are in fact opinions….not self-evident truth?”
Yes, I do consider my options to be just options. If I consider them to be self-evident truths, then they are beliefs. I am also entitled to them, as are you to yours. If you want to try and change my opinions I am open to discussion, but you are going to need more than sweeping generalizations and hyperbole to change them.
“Did you ever consider that precision of something wrong is then precisely wrong, and a well-supported poor argument is a poor argument?”
While there is no such thing as a little bit pregnant, can you precisely answer the question does God exist? A well supported argument cannot be a poor argument. If you can’t dismiss the support, you can’t dismiss the argument.
If you want to debate the issues, step to the plate and put some meat on your arguments.
“I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.”
http://www.slate.com/blogs/trending/2012/07/31/dennis_rodman_s_children_s_book_dennis_the_wild_bull.html
Dennis Rodman writes a Children Book. Thats it ,it s the end of the world as we know it .
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a6e2e38e-db36-11e1-a33a-00144feab49a.html#axzz22EvEWOaM
High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a6e2e38e-db36-11e1-a33a-00144feab49a.html#ixzz22EvVgtNH
The Obama administration’s hopes of a new debt forgiveness programme at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-backed mortgage companies, have been dashed even though their regulator found it could save public money in some scenarios.
“FHFA has concluded that the anticipated benefits do not outweigh the costs and risks,” said Edward DeMarco, acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the independent regulator that controls Fannie and Freddie, on Tuesday.
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The announcement cripples one of the only policy options that Mr Obama had left to support a stumbling US economic recovery. Reducing principal on mortgages worth more than the underlying home could reduce defaults and foreclosures.
snip
blasted embedded tags
http://www.usatoday.com/money/story/2012-07-31/Facebook-stock-hits-new-low/56620852/1?csp=34money&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=110940
whats the over/under on FB going into the teens?
Watch Facebook tank when kids abandon it and all that is left is middle-aged people chatting about their high school or college days.
#78 jj
Very true, thats why they call it a belief.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444860104577561380191553796.html
Citi Bank employee walks on the charges . SEC blows another
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/31/us-usa-newyork-penthouse-idUSBRE86U1JY20120731?feedType=RSS&feedName=domesticNews&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed
100 million penthouse . Could someone follow for the comp. killer ?
OT Alert: This is gonna fry Gator’s onions!
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/olympics-fourth-place-medal/french-4-100-relay-extends-usc-incredible-gold-170523433–oly.html
Curiously, I am enjoying this FabMax/ChiFi spat in a surreal, out-of-body experience kind of way.
JJ, I know you are perfect.
And because I believe in your perfection, I must be perfect too, n’est pas?
86
It’s easier for USC now that they allow professionals. The “students” don’t have to hide the income from the USOC, just the NCAA. You would think the SEC would catch up.
Crazier numbers are for Cal and Stanford. Something like 75 of the 529 total athletes either went to or are going to one or the other.
i appreciate your thinking, and the way you express your ideas is amazing.http://www.boliche.com.br/email.htm
Can someone ballpark what it would cost to move a from NJ to DC using movers. Assume a 3-4 bedroom house worth of crap and the owners want it packed up shipped and unpacked in a 4 day window having the moving co do it all.
Ballpark…..
1
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