BoA/Merrill raises housing price forecast

From HousingWire:

BofAML revises home price forecast way upward

Shrinking inventory and a shift toward short sales is causing analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch to dramatically revise their predictions of how high home prices will travel this year and next.

After saying earlier in the year that national home prices in 2012 will rise just 0.5%, analysts at the bank now feel they will go as high as 2% this year.

Most Americans interviewed by Fannie Mae believe home prices will increase at least 1.4% over the next 12 months, the government-sponsored enterprise said.

The trajectory for the next several years changed little, however. The bank forecasts cumulative appreciation of 44% over the next ten years.

The revisions for 2012 and 2013 are a result of two national trends: inventory declining by more than analysts expected and a shift toward short sales as a means of liquidating delinquent loans.

The slower flow of distressed homes to the market and less non-distressed inventory is resulting in the depressed inventory. And housing turnover has fallen to a historic low, particularly for turnovers not due to foreclosure. A reduction in turnover not only translates to less supply, it also curbs demand.

A shift toward more favorable disposition strategies is also occurring. Over the past several months, the number of short sales has increased. Short sales typically sell at roughly a 15% discount to non-distressed properties while REO sales sell at roughly a 40% discount. The larger discounts for REO sales can be due to factors such as neglect of basic home maintenance as the home goes through the more extensive foreclosure process.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

87 Responses to BoA/Merrill raises housing price forecast

  1. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Three residential towers to change the landscape of Journal Square, officials say

    Journal Square could soon be home to the city’s largest buildings, with the developers behind some Downtown Jersey City developments hoping to break ground next year on three residential/office towers that could reach up to 75 stories and contain as many as 1,800 units.

    Though members of the surrounding neighborhood are reportedly nervous about the size of the towers, developers KRE Group say they will be a dream for commuters because of a planned, direct connection to the PATH station.

    “You wouldn’t even have to be exposed to the elements,” said KRE’s Jeff Persky last week in the group’s Marin Boulevard office, where a model of the three towers sits.

  2. grim says:

    I wonder what “elements” he means…

  3. Ernest Money says:

    Journal Square is a great place to get shot in the face.

  4. Ernest Money says:

    Look at the Beacon in JC. This is what happens when you build upscale in a war zone.

  5. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  6. freedy says:

    you can also get shot in the face in the fowolling locals: Passaic,Clifton,Paterson,Trenton,Camden,Plainfield,Hackettstown,etc

  7. George says:

    you can also get shot in the face anywhere these are humans

  8. Ernest Money says:

    “It was on this day 41 years ago that President Nixon defaulted on the promise to exchange gold for paper dollars presented for exchange by foreign central banks. The crisis in confidence that we observe today resulted from cumulative effects of those measures.”

  9. Ernest Money says:

    freedy (8)-

    The crime that pays is the crime that stays.

  10. Brian says:

    I hear they mostly aim for snobs from Hunteredon county…for everyone else, it’s pretty safe in journal square.

  11. Fast Eddie says:

    Journal Square landmarks: Boulevard Drinks and the Tube Bar. Oh, and smoking in the alley next to Liss Pharmacy.

  12. Richard says:

    TBH I think Journal square has a lot of potential. There are a lot of people that want to live in Manhattan but dont want to rent @ $5k for a 2 bed. From Journal square its 3 stops to downtown, 3 stops to the West Village, 7? to midtown. Plus you dont pay city tax. It doesn’t matter that the area is marginal, (at least you can get a good curry), it might help to gentrify the area too.

  13. Mikeinwaiting says:

    July Housing Starts: 746K vs. 750K expected and 754K (revised) in June. Permits 812K vs. 766K expected and 760K (revised) in June

  14. Painhrtz - Yossarian says:

    BoA/Merrill raises housing price forecast

    From what mostly dead to not quite dead yet. By the way Louisville is interesting it is like Detroit but cleaner. Vacancies and empty houses everywhere

  15. 3B says:

    #15 How about 44% appreciation in the next 10 years.

  16. chicagofinance says:

    Journal Square is fine, but gritty. If you grew up in an urban environment, it is easy to discern the difference between OK and dangerous. The main thing against Journal Square is that it is just an ugly area….but the retail strip between Van Vorst and Hamilton Park was ugly as sin 15 years ago and now upscale stuff is getting lined in…let clot pontificate on the subject.

    Richard says:
    August 16, 2012 at 8:46 am
    TBH I think Journal square has a lot of potential. There are a lot of people that want to live in Manhattan but dont want to rent @ $5k for a 2 bed. From Journal square its 3 stops to downtown, 3 stops to the West Village, 7? to midtown. Plus you dont pay city tax. It doesn’t matter that the area is marginal, (at least you can get a good curry), it might help to gentrify the area too.

  17. chicagofinance says:

    Gold plated AK-47… good is that?
    relo says:
    August 15, 2012 at 11:27 pm
    Thank goodness the interwebs weren’t around when I was young and stupid.

  18. Ann says:

    “Less non-distressed inventory” because there are a boatload of people for whom it doesn’t make sense to sell right now, even though they might want to. Even relocations in my neighborhood are turning their houses into rentals right now, hoping that things look up and they can get out at some point. What a mess.

  19. Essex says:

    I just got back from Florida (Ft Laud) and someone told me to not “go” right when you get the green light. It turned out to be really, really good advice. Turns out that they have really long lights in FL, but people still run the red ones at full speed. Just missed getting completely obliterated by a Ford F150 at 50 MPH. That would’ve pretty much taken out everyone in the car. I hate humanity.

  20. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [20] sx,

    I thinly those long lights contribute. Mass used to have long lights and the same running problem. When light cycles were shortened, the problem decreased.

    MD still has ridiculous light cycles and if not for cams, I’d run on the late yellows rather than sit 4-5 min. And yes, some are that long.

  21. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [20]. Sx

    Of course, Florida seems to attract far more than its share of scum. One of the reasons I don’t much care for it.

  22. Libtard in Union says:


    I abhor FL too, except perhaps the Keys. It’s like one big Golden Corral. If you really want dangerous, drive around Boca where it seems like the cars are driving themselves.

  23. Brian says:

    Ah Florida. My brother lived in Daytona for many years. I used to visit him. I miss the sound of the police helicopters overhead at night chasing crackheads that had just robbed the 7/11. Noisy choppers With their wobbly spotlights piercing the darkness ever searching for drug addicted crackheads and gang members. Prostitues openly soliciting customers along route 1.

    Now there’s a good place to get shot in the face.

  24. Fast Eddie says:

    Florida s.ucks. I liked Disney a week after Thanksgiving. That was it. I stayed at brother-in-laws 20 minutes west of Fort Lauderdale in May one time and felt like I was on the Bataan death march it was so hot; stepping on snails, a lizard on the wall, a f*cking aligator in the yard… get the f*ck outta here with that sh1t. And there were dead cars sitting on I-95 about every 5 miles. Good luck with Florida.

  25. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    If I had to choose between living in florida and living in new jersey, I would take new jersey.

    except perhaps for the keys.

  26. Painhrtz - Yossarian says:

    Mom lives in daytona, I hate it down there. nothing but retirees and tweakers. And the weather sucks. I can’t stand jersey summers why would i want to live in it for 7 months ou of the year.

  27. relo says:

    Re: FL.

    All true, my wife observed that most made-for-tv scandals have a distinct connection to FL. But like most places there are some nice spots. Try the sw coast (presuming you don’t mind the sidewalks being rolled up around 11).

  28. Fast Eddie says:

    I’d rather be dead, laying on the corner of East 4th Street and Avenue D in Manhattan than alive in Florida.

  29. Libtard in Union says:

    “I’d rather be dead, laying on the corner of East 4th Street and Avenue D in Manhattan than alive in Florida.”

    Though homes are pretty cheap down there.

  30. njescapee says:

    That can be arranged very easily :)
    Fast Eddie says:
    August 16, 2012 at 10:35 am
    I’d rather be dead, laying on the corner of East 4th Street and Avenue D in Manhattan than alive in Florida.

  31. Anon E. Moose says:

    I said graduating with student loans is like having a mortgage but no house. Well, now it seems that they can’t get a mortgage, either.

  32. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [33] moose,

    Hope and change.

    And the liberals sneered when I suggested that credit would dry up for the lower classes.

  33. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    BTW, has anyone heard from Seif? I hope he’s all right.

  34. njescapee says:

    speaking of scum and NJ
    Jon Corzine Is Considering Starting A Hedge Fund

    Read more:

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    August 16, 2012 at 9:38 am
    [20]. Sx

    Of course, Florida seems to attract far more than its share of scum. One of the reasons I don’t much care for it.

  35. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [8] freedy,

    Prosecutors say charges against Jonny unlikely?

    Claude said it best

  36. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [25] fast eddie,

    Afraid of a teeny, weeny, lizard? Now I know you are a lifelong NNJ/NYC guy.

  37. Brian says:

    I actually had some good times there. Just not the type of place I’d want to live. My brother and his buddies rented a house off route 1 (Ridgewood Ave) and they had more than a few parties that got completely out of control.

    I went to more than a few bike weeks and biketoberfests. Also pepsi 400 once. It’s a great place to get trashed and roam around on a motorcycle. That’s for sure.

    27.Painhrtz – Yossarian says:
    August 16, 2012 at 10:30 am
    Mom lives in daytona, I hate it down there. nothing but retirees and tweakers. And the weather sucks. I can’t stand jersey summers why would i want to live in it for 7 months ou of the year.

  38. njescapee says:

    Been here in the Keys for 7 years fulltime. It is very laidback and since I work from home my work uniform is tee shirt, shorts and flipflops while colleagues up north deal with the often cold /cr-ppy weather. Water all around us, great music, bars and restaurants. I’m not a huge fan of the mainland but do enjoy a monthly visit with my son and his family west of Ft. Lauderdale. There are actually some pretty cool places to visit in south Florida. So what’s a big night out up in NNJ, a stroll in the Garden State Plaza and maybe a high cost meal at Legal Seafood? BFD

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    August 16, 2012 at 10:24 am
    If I had to choose between living in florida and living in new jersey, I would take new jersey.

    except perhaps for the keys.

  39. Fabius Maximus says:

    This is how I want to comute into the city.

  40. Brian says:

    41 –
    That is such bullsh1t. They chased the bikers out of manhattan for Gooch’s Garlic run. No more going to little Italy. Now the run is to Ironbound in Newark. But these knucleheads can race a car 180mph through the tunnel. I hate Bloomberg.

  41. chicagofinance says:

    Honestly, this is worse……WTF?

    njescapee says:
    August 16, 2012 at 11:10 am
    speaking of scum and NJ
    Jon Corzine Is Considering Starting A Hedge Fund

  42. Juice box says:

    re # 37 – Yup Corzine and MF Global show the new regulations contained in Dodd-Frank are just another farce hoisted on us.

  43. Ragnar says:

    Corzine’s new fund will presumably short NJ state and muni bonds, using his inside info.

  44. Painhrtz - Yossarian says:

    Juice you thought it was going to do something. those two are the most corupt on capitol hill. it was basically political kabuke theater. that basically entrenched the big banks further while f*cking over small to medium sized thrifts.

    doesn’t matter anyway the fed is still the worst of them all

  45. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [41] fabius

    “This is how I want to comute into the city.”

    A rare moment of agreement. Of course, I will stick to what I know (and have driven, yes, this very car. But what did you expect from a rightie?):

  46. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [50] redux

    Full disclosure: When teams upgrade cars, they sell them to the racing schools. So when I drove Tony Stewart’s car, it was his old car.

  47. Anon E. Moose says:

    Lib [48];

    Owner-flown or will you need a pilot?

  48. Anon E. Moose says:

    Ragnar [45];

    Didn’t see the episode — let me guess, zero emissions?

  49. Thanks , I have just been looking for info about this subject for ages and yours is the greatest I’ve found out so far. However, what in regards to the bottom line? Are you certain in regards to the supply?|What i do not understood is in fact how you are now not actually a lot more smartly-preferred than you may be right now. You’re very intelligent.

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  51. Fast Eddie says:

    A rare two day ebb six weeks into my private sector job. They actually give you some oxygen once in a while. And speaking of the house hunt, how many more 600k pieces of sh1t do I have to endure? Technically, I have 65 days left before my buyer or I can pull the plug on the contract. An extension is probable but I believe I really need to see more inventory. I mean, if you’re going to drop a half million or better, shouldn’t you have a house you can actually move into?

  52. Statler Waldorf says:

    New Jersey’s unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent in July, a record level not seen since 1977, and the state lost 12,000 jobs, according to preliminary figures released today by the state Labor Department.

    The jobless rate also lost ground compared with the national average. U.S. unemployment stood at 8.3 percent at the end of July, which means New Jersey now trails by 1.5 percentage points, also a three-decade record.

  53. 3B says:

    #57 Fast: Rates are good though, just got quoted 3.25 from Clot’s guy for a 15 year, and that is with the big jump in the 10 year over the last week.

  54. 3B says:

    #49 Ryan’s budget is nonsense; there is absolutely no cut in defense spending.

  55. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [58] statler,

    Hope and Change!

  56. Libtard in Union says:

    Moose (53):

    If I could afford a personal jet, I could afford to take flying lessons.

  57. Anon E. Moose says:

    Lib [63];

    But if you could -really- afford a private jet, you could also afford to pay someone to fly you in it. ;-) Besides, type ratings aren’t that easy to earn.

    Besides, the smart money in private jet travel is to rent, not own, with a professional crew (there are fractional ownership arrangments where you ‘own’ a 1/8 share or so, but are essentially paying by the hour).

  58. chicagofinance says:

    The End Is Nigh (I’m Living The Wrong Life Edition):
    On my way to work this morning from roughly Lincroft to Red Bank, I had to trail a 25 year-old blond in a convertible Bentley with the top down. She was texting while driving……

  59. njescapee says:

    great comment below. must be someone from this board.

    SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Jon Corzine is considering launching a hedge fund. Don’t laugh.

    The former head of MF Global Holdings Inc. is considering a venture to “engage his passion for trading,” according to The New York Times. Read NY Times story on the unwinding of MF Global and Corzine .

    BoneGrinder 1 hour ago I had a loose stool this morning and I swore it looked exactly like Corzine….

  60. Bystander says:


    Glad to hear your private sector gig is working out. I am now the battle correspondent in the fecal matter known as the job market. Two interviews over last several months and two rejections. Very competitive hedge funds so interviews were extremely difficult. Lots of scenario analysis rather than experience discussions. Trying to remain upbeat but pipe is dry now. Only contacts are recruiters looking to pay 50-70 hr no benefits. A joke given I have 15 years experience and currently VP at a Wall St. bank. Love the calls asking if I am interested in Anchorage, Alaska positions. No raise in years and people leaving company at crazy rate. Feeling stuck. Any hints on what worked?

  61. Painhrtz - Yossarian says:

    By every recruiter wants me to go to Cali or CT. My response is usually why would I want to go someplace where the cost of living is actually higher than Nj.

  62. chicagofinance says:

    FabMax: go here and page 30 of the app…..the inset article in blue by Duncan Moore.

    Note: the key language you sought related to the concept that entrepreneurs were being advised to domicile outside the United States. There are other versions of this article, but only the one from the magazine at the above link has the complete text.

  63. Anon E. Moose says:

    Pain [68];

    That’s why employers need to pay big bucks to headhunters to fill their positions there at the wages offered.

  64. Anon E. Moose says:

    Nom [51];

    I suppose the caveat there is that it depends on the circumstances of the upgrade…

    “Low mileage, never been in an accident…”

  65. relo says:

    65: Chi,

    She wasn’t texting. She was taking pictures of herself with her phone for that website. Did you make it into the frame?

  66. Ragnar says:

    “The Entity” season 5, episode 11.
    My favorite season was 4. Lots of great episodes. Perhaps best was Cartman as fundamentalist preacher in episode 9, “Do the Handicapped go to Hell”, and episode 10, “Probably”.

  67. Young Buck says:

    Does anyone know (or can anyone point me to information online) how many units a multi-family dwelling has to be for a sprinkler system to be required? Someone told me they think it is required for houses with 3 or more units. That doesn’t seem right to me and I’m having trouble finding info online.

  68. Painhrtz - Yossarian says:

    Moose no kidding

    my wife used to be one, that job is no fun. Try selling folks with PhDs from MIT on the idea tha working for a medical device company designing devices to test the sharpness of a needle is a much better opportunity than NASA. The folks she supported had some really unrealistic expectations.

  69. Anon E. Moose says:

    Pain [75];

    No disrespect, but maybe its a hard job because the proposition offered is a bad deal.

    Totally agree on unrealistic expectations, though. But you know what, big Pharma makes their payroll twice a month clockwork, and NASA ain’t nearly what it used to be. No contest which they should choose if the ‘product’ (and to a headhunter, the candidate is the product, not the client — the client is the one paying the fee) is out of work and the phone ain’t ringing.

  70. Ben says:

    Corzine starting a new hedge fund? What an egomaniac. He got off scott free without even a slap on the wrist. Can’t he just take his fortune and go away? That’s the problem with these Wall St. Execs. They make unjustified millions in commissions and salary that doesn’t reflect performance. Then, instead of being content failing their way to the top, they insist on trying to prove to the rest of the world that they can get higher.

  71. gfl=Good Fing Luck says:

    Corrzine will get another paycheck for fin up again with someone elses money

  72. Fabius Maximus says:

    #69 cHI,

    Thank you for following up, I mighyt even watch the video if I get time. Your original assertion was “…..he is sending the next wave of leading technology companies out of the country…” The document does not support that statement and the fact that it states that O is trying to make the R&D credit permanent would show the opposite. Tax attorneys telling students to start their business offshore? In reality that statement should be. “Tax attorneys tell students to start their businesses offshore as that way will pay NO tax”. Look up “double Irish and Dutch” to get the idea.
    Since that conference, the CRS came out with their review of the 2004 tax amnesty and the conclusion was that the the money brought back in 2004, did not create jobs, but for the most part was passed back as dividends to the shareholders.
    As for energy and peak oil, I defer to the dissent written by the boards resident (although MIA) janitor on that topic.

    I agree that the US tax code needs a major overhaul, but I suspect my reforms would not align with yours. My starting point would be that 1.2Trillion. I would put a penalty of deferred earrings held over one or two years. 2% per year would see some repatriation.

  73. grim says:

    I don’t know, seems pretty crude, I’d have expected a bit more craftsmanship given what I’ve been seeing out of other Brooklyn uber-enthusiasts. Norm and Bob wouldn’t be impressed, and I’m sure the Fine Woodworking guys would claim they are wasting perfectly good oak.

  74. Fabius Maximus says:

    #81 grim

    But they are Hipsters not Craftsmen.

    I have to say that if I had paid $200 and I was given a piece of wood with a big black knot like that, I think I would work out the tensile strength of the board.

  75. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Up new thread.

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