From the Record:
Appraiser sees NJ home prices rising in 2013, after long slide
After a long, steep slide, New Jersey home prices are poised to begin rising again — slowly — in 2013, appraiser Jeffrey Otteau said Thursday. But it will take until 2020 for values to return to their 2005 levels, and real estate still faces many challenges, he said.
“The recovery in the housing market is only just starting,” said Otteau, of East Brunswick, whose housing forecasts are followed by the real estate industry. He said demand is stronger in Bergen County than in Passaic, which has been hit hard by foreclosures and other economic distress in the cities.
According to Otteau’s calculations, New Jersey home prices have been basically flat this year. By contrast, the S&P/Case-Shiller index, which uses different ways to track prices, found New York metropolitan-area values dropped 2.6 percent from July 2011 to July 2012, its most recent figures.
The number of sales in New Jersey has rebounded to the fastest pace since 2007, though it remains below the boom levels of 2005, Otteau said. Lower home prices, rock-bottom mortgage rates and a growing confidence in the economic recovery have lured buyers back, Otteau told real estate agents at his semiannual seminar in East Hanover.
“Fewer and fewer people are losing their jobs,” Otteau said. “That’s part of the housing recovery.”
After dropping about 27 percent since the peak of the housing boom, median prices — the point at which half of homes sold for a higher price and half lower — will rise about 3 percent in 2013 as a result of the increased demand, Otteau predicted. As prices begin to tick up, he predicted, buyers will become less cautious and jump into the market.
“Home buyers don’t want to buy if there’s a chance that they could get it for a better price” by waiting, Otteau said.
He predicted that the real estate market next spring will be the most active in at least five years. Spring is traditionally the busiest time in the housing market, as families look to move before the next school year starts.
…
Not all regions and price categories have experienced higher sales this year. Rural areas continue to trail, in part because fewer people are willing to commute long distances when gasoline costs around $3.50 a gallon. And job cuts on Wall Street have meant lower sales of homes costing over $2.5 million, Otteau said.
I went to that zillow site to look at pre-foreclosures. Long Beach Long Island which has tons and tons of condos/coops on boardwalk which was snapped up from 2000-2008 as investments, rentals, second homes, piedatiers have 173 in preforeclosure. Long Beach is just one town. Wow 173 in preforeclosure. That should take a few years to work through
Some of the old timers I’ve talked to on LBI told me the reason they were able to scoop up huge tracts of prime property is because they purchased after the island was wiped out in ’62.
2nd : )
2nd : )
good morning Mike
After a long, steep slide, New Jersey home prices are poised to begin rising again — slowly — in 2013, appraiser Jeffrey Otteau said Thursday.
This is 5 years running that this statement has been uttered. Salaries are flat, there’s no job growth and people can’t sell because they’re underwater. Where does the demand come from?
Advance GDP this morning was *not* ugly, coming in at 2.0%
Commission not disclosed…..
JJ’s B.S says:
October 26, 2012 at 8:29 am
You have to eat what you kill.
Guy could have done better by doing 1/5 munis, 1/5 treasuries, 1/5 MBS, 1/5 investment grade bonds and 1/5 SPY. Then spent the 90K he saved on hookers and blow in southbeach
chicagofinance says:
October 25, 2012 at 6:47 pm
Fcuk: I just sat with someone who was sold an annuity by one of the well known names out there……these guys smoked him for a one-time $90,000 commission….fcuking pricks :(
There is no way I tell him…he deserves better……
The number of sales in New Jersey has rebounded to the fastest pace since 2007, though it remains below the boom levels of 2005, Otteau said.
Really? Then why am I still looking at the same 12 overpriced piece of sh1t houses for weeks now?
Hitler reacts to the recent Depeche Mode press conference…..
http://vimeo.com/52135788
The projected track of the storm and where it will make landfall is slightly further south than projected yesterday evening. This could help reduce the storm surge for lower Manhattan and northern Jersey beach towns, but the winds and the rains will all still be the same. Some of the weather geeks I follow say the storm is going to eventually stall over the NYC area and will essentially drive back and forth over the area for two to three days. Some claim >10″ of rain, which means I am fukced.
HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
THE STRUCTURE OF SANDY CONTINUES TO EVOLVE…AS SHEAR AND DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST HAVE DISPLACED MOST
OF THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT
WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH…THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD HAVE BROADENED SUBSTANTIALLY. AS A
RESULT…WINDS FROM FLIGHT LEVEL DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE VERY EFFICIENTLY…AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 70 KT. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERWARD…SOME RE-
INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH…GIVEN THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LARGE CYCLONE
DEEPENING OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. IT
APPEARS THAT SANDY WILL MAINTAIN SOME TYPE OF WARM SECLUSION
STRUCTURE UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD…ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SANDY COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL A LITTLE SOONER THAN
INDICATED HERE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325/11. AS
SANDY CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LOW IT WILL SLOW DOWN
TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH 36 HOURS AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. LATE IN
THE PERIOD…WHILE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SANDY TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD…THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREAD IN THE EXACT
TRACK. THE ECMWF…GFDL…HWRF…AND SOME OF THE HFIP GUIDANCE SHOW
A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE DELMARVA PENINSULA…WHILE THE GFS AND
UKMET SHOW A WIDER TURN WITH A TRACK FARTHER NORTH TOWARD LONG
ISLAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LIE BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5…AND IS JUST A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. USERS ARE REMINDED TO NOT
FOCUS ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD…AS
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS TO A LARGE PART OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST AND THE EXPECTED GROWTH IN THE SIZE OF
THE OUTER WIND FIELD…A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA ON THIS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 26.3N 76.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 27.2N 77.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 28.3N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 29.7N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 31.4N 74.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 35.5N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 38.5N 74.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 40.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
DECLARATIONS
Noonan: When Americans Saw the Real Obama Why the Denver debate changed
We all say Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. But it’s all still Denver, Denver, and the mystery that maybe isn’t a mystery at all.
If Cincinnati and Lake County go for Mitt Romney on Nov. 6 it will be because of what happened in Denver on Oct. 3. If Barack Obama barely scrapes through, if there’s a bloody and prolonged recount, it too will be because of Denver.
Nothing echoes out like that debate. It was the moment that allowed Mr. Romney to break through, that allowed dismay with the incumbent to coalesce, that allowed voters to consider the alternative. What the debate did to the president is what the Yankees’ 0-4 series against the Tigers did at least momentarily, to the team’s relationship with their city. “Dear Yankees, We don’t date losers. Signed, New Yorkers” read the Post’s headline.
America doesn’t date losers either.
Why was the first debate so toxic for the president? Because the one thing he couldn’t do if he was going to win the election is let all the pent-up resentment toward him erupt. Americans had gotten used to him as The President. Whatever his policy choices, whatever general direction he seemed to put in place he was The President, a man who had gotten there through natural gifts and what all politicians need, good fortune.
What he couldn’t do was present himself, when everyone was looking, as smaller than you thought. Petulant, put upon, above it all, full of himself. He couldn’t afford to make himself look less impressive than the challenger in terms of command, grasp of facts, size.
But that’s what he did.
And in some utterly new way the president was revealed, exposed. All the people whose job it is to surround and explain him, to act as his buffers and protectors—they weren’t there. It was him on the stage, alone with a competitor. He didn’t have a teleprompter, and so his failure seemed to underscore the cliché that the prompter is a kind of umbilical cord for him, something that provides nourishment, the thing he needs to sound good. He is not by any means a stupid man but he has become a boring one; he drones, he is predictable, it’s never new. The teleprompter adds substance, or at least safety.
***
A great and assumed question, the one that’s still floating out there, is what exactly happened when Mr. Obama did himself in? What led to it?
Was it the catastrophic execution of an arguably sound strategy? Perhaps the idea was to show the president was so unimpressed by his challenger that he could coolly keep him at bay by not engaging. Maybe Mr. Obama’s handlers advised: “The American people aren’t impressed by this flip-flopping, outsourcing plutocrat, and you will deepen your bond with the American people, Mr. President, by expressing in your bearing, through your manner and language, how unimpressed you are, too.” So he sat back and let Mr. Romney come forward. Mr. But Romney was poised, knowledgable, presidential. It was a mistake to let that come forward!
Peggy Noonan’s Blog
Daily declarations from the Wall Street Journal columnist.
.Was it the catastrophic execution of a truly bad strategy? Maybe they assumed the election was already pretty much in the bag, don’t sweat it, just be your glitteringly brilliant self and let Duncan the Wonder Horse go out there and turn people off. But nothing was in the bag. The sheer number of people who watched—a historic 70 million—suggests a lot of voters were still making up their minds.
Maybe the president himself didn’t think he could possibly be beaten because he’s so beloved. Presidents are always given good news, to keep their spirits up. The poll numbers he’d been seeing, the get-out-the-vote reports, the extraordinary Internet effort to connect with every lonely person in America, which is a lot of persons—maybe everything he was hearing left him thinking his position was impregnable.
But maybe these questions are all off. Maybe what happened isn’t a mystery at all.
That, anyway, is the view expressed this week by a member of the U.S. Senate who served there with Mr Obama and has met with him in the White House. People back home, he said, sometimes wonder what happened with the president in the debate. The senator said, I paraphrase: I sort of have to tell them that it wasn’t a miscalculation or a weird moment. I tell them: I know him, and that was him. That guy on the stage, that’s the real Obama.
***
Which gets us to Bob Woodward’s “The Price of Politics,” published last month. The portrait it contains of Mr. Obama—of a president who is at once over his head, out of his depth and wholly unaware of the fact—hasn’t received the attention it deserves. Throughout the book, which is a journalistic history of the president’s key economic negotiations with Capitol Hill, Mr. Obama is portrayed as having the appearance and presentation of an academic or intellectual while being strangely clueless in his reading of political situations and dynamics. He is bad at negotiating—in fact doesn’t know how. His confidence is consistently greater than his acumen, his arrogance greater than his grasp.
He misread his Republican opponents from day one. If he had been large-spirited and conciliatory he would have effectively undercut them, and kept them from uniting. (If he’d been large-spirited with Mr. Romney, he would have undercut him, too.) Instead he was toughly partisan, he shut them out, and positions hardened. In time Republicans came to think he doesn’t really listen, doesn’t really hear. So did some Democrats. Business leaders and mighty CEOs felt patronized: After inviting them to meet with him, the president read from a teleprompter and included the press. They felt like “window dressing.” One spoke of Obama’s surface polish and essential remoteness. In negotiation he did not cajole, seduce, muscle or win sympathy. He instructed. He claimed deep understanding of his adversaries and their motives but was often incorrect. He told staffers that John Boehner, one of 11 children of a small-town bar owner, was a “country club Republican.” He was often patronizing, which in the old and accomplished is irritating but in the young and inexperienced is infuriating. “Boehner said he hated going down to the White House to listen to what amounted to presidential lectures,” Mr. Woodward writes.
Mr. Obama’s was a White House that had—and showed—no respect for Republicans trying to negotiate with Republicans. Through it all he was confident—”Eric, don’t call my bluff”—because he believed, as did his staff, that his talents would save the day.
They saved nothing. Washington became immobilized.
Mr. Woodward’s portrait of the president is not precisely new—it has been drawn in other ways in other accounts, and has been a staple of D.C. gossip for three years now—but it is vivid and believable. And there’s probably a direct line between that portrait and the Obama seen in the first debate. Maybe that’s what made it so indelible, and such an arc-changer.
People saw for the first time an Obama they may have heard about on radio or in a newspaper but had never seen.
They didn’t see some odd version of the president. They saw the president.
And they didn’t like what they saw, and that would linger.
Speaking of the Yankees, I briefly listened to the WFAN on my way to Lowes. I don’t recall which host it was, but he was pretty much blaming the sweep on the poor design of the new Yankee Stadium. He said it was simply too quiet. Perhaps raising ticket prices to the moon to help cover their 190 million payroll brings in a quieter fan. Rarely do suits cheer very loudly.
BTW – these local town bozos that look down on the renters……my son is getting skipped out of his grade in Math. They may even skip him two grades except they are concerned with socialization. My wife was just appointed to a joint administration/parent cirriculum board which was strongly oversubscribed ,and they only chose 4. I hope we are gossipped about as these chumpwads each their own excrement……..
Francessa also blamed Stub-Hub for all the Yankee problems….as if the chance to buy a $100 ticket for $40 is some kind of cutting business issue that causes worse attendance.
Libtard at home says:
October 26, 2012 at 9:12 am
Speaking of the Yankees, I briefly listened to the WFAN on my way to Lowes. I don’t recall which host it was, but he was pretty much blaming the sweep on the poor design of the new Yankee Stadium. He said it was simply too quiet. Perhaps raising ticket prices to the moon to help cover their 190 million payroll brings in a quieter fan. Rarely do suits cheer very loudly.
Nothing new here. FDR was just a manipulator, totally incompetent, but thinking himself omniscient and omnipotent. Most of his personal business ventures demonstrated that incompetence, so he moved into politics where being an overconfident BSer “works”. BO skipped from “scholar” to politician, two jobs where failure is hard to measure.
He is bad at negotiating—in fact doesn’t know how. His confidence is consistently greater than his acumen, his arrogance greater than his grasp.
Yet, as I said in the last post, Ohio will pull through for him in the end and we’ll get four more years of golf and the talk show tour. I saw this guy as a con artist from the very first time he opened his mouth four years ago. He doesn’t have a record… none… nothing… of anything. There isn’t a business background, he wasn’t a mayor, a governor, nothing. There’s no accomplishments other than a street organizer. What other proof did you need? Yet, he will get four more years and we’ll continuet to cut our own paths despite the obstacles.
Lib, I stood on line at 4:30AM this morning at Home Depot. I bought one of the very last Briggs and Stratton Storm responders…(generator). They were gone in seconds. The store only had ten. I thought somebody was going to stab the guy that bought two.
Hey, do you know how to ghetto wire it to your house? Home depot was out of transfer switches…..
Keep the pumps runnin brutha.
9.Libtard at home says:
October 26, 2012 at 9:03 am
The projected track of the storm and where it will make landfall is slightly further south than projected yesterday evening. This could help reduce the storm surge for lower Manhattan and northern Jersey beach towns, but the winds and the rains will all still be the same. Some of the weather geeks I follow say the storm is going to eventually stall over the NYC area and will essentially drive back and forth over the area for two to three days. Some claim >10″ of rain, which means I am fukced.
About BO. For what it’s worth, Clinton was in a similar position during the 1996 elections. Only it was Dole preaching 15% tax cuts and claimed his opponent would decimate Medicare and Social Security. The only real thing Clinton had going for himself was a nice rebound in the economy from George senior’s recession of 91 (and Gulf War). Sound familiar? Clinton also lead in the polls throughout the entire election process. We can only hope O-man’s second term is economically as strong as Clinton’s was. And I’m fairly certain Obama understands that cigars were meant for smoking.
When it’s all said and done, it’s the stock market that decides elections. Which is not surprising to me at all. After all, we live in a clearly defined corporatocracy. Baa, baa.
When was the last time the market results did not match up with the election results?
Brian…don’t ghetto wire. Just run extension cords through your house to the appliances you need. Ghetto wiring is extremely dangerous if not done properly. Not worth blowing up all of your appliances to avoid stepping over a few cords. Make sure you buy at least 18 gauge if 10 amps is your max electric pressure. Skimping on the gauge of your wire will reduce the number of appliances you can safely run. Wiring your house with a transfer switch makes sense if you have a standby generator setup. Not for a temporary gasoline burner.
Congrats on landing a generator. You are one of the lucky few. Although Briggs and Stratt make an excellent engine, be wary of the electric generation unit. That’s what usually goes in these things. Start her up monthly and she might last forever. Don’t and she won’t work the next time you need her.
Speaking of ghetto wiring. I could help you if you have a natty gas furnace. Let me know. It’s gonna be cold behind this storm (main reason for the massive winds actually as it’s the tropical low banging against a strong Arctic high that will be to blame for the 80mph+ winds).
Brian – Don’t forget about gas. You’ll burn through gas pretty quickly if you are running it loaded, 24/7. It’s completely useless without gas.
Last storm, a few neighbors bought generators and only filled up the containers they use for lawn equipment (5g).
Open the book, it’ll list the fuel consumption rates in gallons per hour, do the math.
Good Morning New Jersey & You Too Pain
#7 Gary – More sales and less inventory is the reason that you are still seeing the same crap for sale.
Feels like gridlock out there right now. Sellers unwilling to accept market value and buyers unwilling to over pay.
What an idiot. Home prices do not reach 2005 levels in 2020 simply by in 2020 it is same price as 2005. If inflation is 3% a year. Even without compounding it home prices have to reach 145% of 2005 prices in 2020 not 100% of 2005 prices. Inflation adjusted any home bought from the Summer of 2003 to the Summer of 2008 will never reach that peak price agin.
After a long, steep slide, New Jersey home prices are poised to begin rising again — slowly — in 2013, appraiser Jeffrey Otteau said Thursday. But it will take until 2020 for values to return to their 2005 levels, and real estate still faces many challenges, he said.
Grim is right.
I have 7 gallons of gas besides the filled generator which holds 5 gallons. It will run 10 hours at 50% capacity on 5 gallons. I’m good for well over 20 hours without needing to refill. During the last storm, I ran the generator from 5pm to 11pm each night and from 615am to 730am each morning. Mainly to keep the freezer/fridge frozen and to heat the house. I would get the heat up to about 75 before going to bed. By morning it was a balmy 59. Remember to lower your storms.
30 year,
It’s maddening. I have one lined up to see after work today. This one has been sitting because it’s a dump but is in a location we really desire. It needs a lot of work but I may make a move on it. This will be the 2nd visit on this one in the last month. Gridlock definitely sums it up.
Another opportunity after next weeks storm?
grim says:
October 26, 2012 at 8:39 am
I went to that zillow site to look at pre-foreclosures. Long Beach Long Island which has tons and tons of condos/coops on boardwalk which was snapped up from 2000-2008 as investments, rentals, second homes, piedatiers have 173 in preforeclosure. Long Beach is just one town. Wow 173 in preforeclosure. That should take a few years to work through
Some of the old timers I’ve talked to on LBI told me the reason they were able to scoop up huge tracts of prime property is because they purchased after the island was wiped out in ’62.
I also blame it on realtors refusing to let the market collapse. Realtors should refuse overpriced listings, realtors should be convincing sellers to lower prices. Instead I have realtors accepting listings at 100k to 200K more than their worth.
One recently I told realtor I was making one bid. I will do comps and bid full market value. Owner had it listed at 490K. I bid 410K. Then realtor strong armed me up to 425k, which buyer accepted. Of course pushing me to 425K made my wife say lets go look at property again to make sure it is worth 425k, we found a few minor things and I tell realtor I bid 410K you pushed me to 425k I am not returning contract. Good Luck. Four weeks later she calls back and says 390K. Speak to wife and she says we cant trust realtor make it 350K and you have a deal. Funny realtor now goes I need 390K. When she calls me in month and says 350K is ok, I will say 325K. So the game is played. Turns out owner would have been happy with 410K, I would have returned contract at 410K. but realtor needed 5% of 15K so badly she blew the deal. Realtor even had nerve to tell me she is buying a new car and needs commission money. I told her how is that my problem or homeowners problem.
Banks need to foreclose on all the homes, kick out the deadbeats and realtors need to expedite the process. Realtors need to realize homes selling at 40% off they can sell triple. I try to help. Realtor told me homeowners really needs to get out so anything I can do to help would be appreciated. I told her no problem, I will drop by some matches and gasoline for the lady.
30 year realtor says:
October 26, 2012 at 9:49 am
#7 Gary – More sales and less inventory is the reason that you are still seeing the same crap for sale.
Feels like gridlock out there right now. Sellers unwilling to accept market value and buyers unwilling to over pay.
Lib [11] & ChiFi [13];
I was at the 2d to last reg season home game v. BoSox. My friend & I laughed at the ‘paid attendance’ figure – we put the crowd at 30k, tops, they announced 45k. This was a pennant race game against bitter division rivals with the playoffs still in doubt. And yes, it was quiet.
$2,500 per seat behind the plate is why they can’t fill the house. $100 for an average seat is why the fans up there are quiet.
I’ve heard it explained this way – they’ve priced themselves not like a sporting event but a Broadway show. Sports fans expect adversity and occasional disappointment. Show patrons expect to be entertained, including the ‘good guys’ triumphing in the end. Most of the crowd at the current pricing levels expect to see the Harlem Globetrotters not just beat but embarrass the Washington Generals no matter what night they choose to attend.
It took me three seasons to attend my first Yankee home game in the new stadium, and even at that I have not yet bought a ticket — of course I understand that does not meant the tickets weren’t paid for — but as for me, a Yankee fan, I have not been motivated to open my wallet.
As for Francessa, he’s a fool. What difference does it make if someone buys $100 per season tickets and sells some of them on stub hub for $40? Season ticket holders will give up games for free because they get access to buy postseason. All it proves is that the Yankees overpriced their market, and the season ticket holder is arbitraging to defray the cost of their option.
I am praying it beats the crap out of those bungalows, I will show up with a bag full of cashiers checks and a baseball bat and start buying homes.
Guy near me used to buy homes, strong arm style. A few wise guys with bats and a bag full of cash you get your best deals.
yome says:
October 26, 2012 at 9:57 am
Another opportunity after next weeks storm?
grim says:
#24, so how do I power my gas boiler without a transfer switch, it does not have an outlet for an extension cord. Sorry for my ignorance on this topic.
Ignore my Mets bias, I think the Yankees are terrible buyers of free agents. With their payroll, they should win the series virtually every year. I know their business model supports their strategy of buying everyone available (Yes network brings in $2 monthly from every cable user in the NY/NJ area), but who wants to root for that? The league would be significantly more entertaining if there were a true cap in place. Instead, as a Yankee fan, you get to watch the AL all-star team get decimated by the desire of younger cheaper and more enthusiastic regulars. And my fellow Yankee fans like to talk about how successful their team has been since the late 90’s. I say they are not successful unless they win the World Series at least every other year.
Regarding the furnace….I have nat gas forced air heat. Trane unit. Pretty new (2004). there’s conduit coming down going into a shutoff switch right above the unit. I think I can pigtail a plug and put an outlet in there right? Is it 220 or 120v?
How did you do it?
18.Libtard at home says:
October 26, 2012 at 9:39 am
Brian…don’t ghetto wire. Just run extension cords through your house to the appliances you need. Ghetto wiring is extremely dangerous if not done properly. Not worth blowing up all of your appliances to avoid stepping over a few cords. Make sure you buy at least 18 gauge if 10 amps is your max electric pressure. Skimping on the gauge of your wire will reduce the number of appliances you can safely run. Wiring your house with a transfer switch makes sense if you have a standby generator setup. Not for a temporary gasoline burner
Condo.
Disconnect the connection in the junction box nearest the furnace. You may need to snip the wires if you don’t have a lamp or a true junction in the circuit. It’s no biggie, you just reconnect them after the power comes back on. Then attach a plug to the circuit running to the furnace, or if you like to live dangerously (like I do), run the wires from the circuit running to the furnace directly into the female end of the extension cord running from the generator. Word to the wise, don’t start up the generator with anything plugged in. Wait for the generator to be running a minute or so before connecting the primary extension cord. I blew out the computer on my fridge once with the initial surge from the generator. Once power comes back on, reconnect the wires to your furnace in the Junction box. I’m not sure if the polarization makes a difference when running from the generator since it’s AC, but I always try to run the white (hot) to the positive just in case. Also, not a bad idea to have a carbon monoxide detector near your furnace just in case somehow the vent to the flu closes and the furnace keeps on. It’s a nice piece of mind to have.
32 – temporarily pigtail it, just make sure you trip the associated breakers in the panel.
I’m not forced air. I’m old school steam boiler/radiator. Ignore my advice. I can only imagine how much power the motor on the compressor and the fan require in a forced air system. I’m guessing you can find out what you need to know on the internets, but be careful. I’m not sure how the safeties work on such a system.
For those hoping to use inverters, be careful with what you plug in. Cheap inverters don’t provide clean power (usually square or sawtooth wave), and are very rough on AC motors or sensitive electronics. Not uncommon for AC motors to chatter strongly on an inverter. Generators don’t have this issue as the output it typically sine, and with better generators, is somewhat regulated against sag.
I would not be plugging my fancy new fridge into an inverter, unless it was a higher end “pure sine” unit. Cheaper to lose the food than fix the fridge.
Also, realize that the rated power on cheap inverters is wild over-estimation. Remember car audio and stereo amplifiers in the 80s? Everything was 2000 watts. Right, 2000 watts, peak, for .01ms, and only under the correct moon phase.
If the inverter plugs into the 12v utility outlet in your car, you are unlikely to get more than a few hundred watts out of it (200-300w), regardless of what the advertising says (30 amps, 12 volts, 360 watts, end of story). Anything that claims to be 1000 watts or more will need to connect directly to the battery or alternator with a set of cables that are as thick as jumper cables. Watch out, some larger units no longer come with cable, as the cost of 1/0 wire is more expensive than the cheap chinese electronics.
Rainfall projections are more than Hurricane Irene + 9 inches for NY Metro so there will be allot of flooding. High tide projections are for the early morning Tuesday from NYC to Atlantic City is + 5 feet @ 7: 30 AM. This could mean doom for the flood prone waterfront & riverfront homes.
So far the projections say Hurricane Sandy will not make landfall further south and will miss the outer banks. The outer banks took the brunt of Hurricane Irene when it made landfall with 85 mph winds and the storm surge that cut a new channel 100 ft wide and 8 ft deep in the outer banks. The winds slowed down dramatically because of the outer banks so the damage in New Jersey was not as severe as a CAT 1 landfall could have been. Wind gusts at Sandy hook for Irene were 63 mph and 66 mph in Atlantic City. If we have 80 mph winds this time we could see allot more trees and branches down although there are less leaves this time of year and Irene and the freak ice-storm last October did clear the weaker trees and branches.
I am glad my power lines are underground and I am only a few blocks from the substation. Biggest worry for me should be flooding since I am very close to the Hudson River.
#33 Thanks.
#28..exactly, for those prices ..Jeter better get his 3,000 hit each time!!!
Check out the predicted 5-foot storm surge and this loop only runs until 6am Tuesday (96 hours).
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SURGE_NORTH_EAST/SURGE_NORTH_96_HR.shtml
Don’t be a Jeff Otteau and quit Jeffing me Ott.
[11] Lib – I made this exact point here during the Division Series. I was utterly disgusted to see dozens of empty first class cushy chairs directly behind the plate at first pitch. At a Harvard lecture the other night the presenter called it the “Skyboxification of Society”. As we’ve moved from a market economy to a market society, where everything is for sale, we now live our lives in strata that has little or no interaction with the other strata. In the 1960’s there was little more than $1 difference between bleacher seats and the best box seats, so CEOs sat next to truck drivers and mailroom clerks during baseball games and if it rained everybody got wet.
Speaking of the Yankees, I briefly listened to the WFAN on my way to Lowes. I don’t recall which host it was, but he was pretty much blaming the sweep on the poor design of the new Yankee Stadium. He said it was simply too quiet. Perhaps raising ticket prices to the moon to help cover their 190 million payroll brings in a quieter fan. Rarely do suits cheer very loudly.
Lib if those models hold true the flooding is going to make Irene look like a mild wet down. Storm surge is way up the Delware tidal basin almost up to Philly. Raritan Bay with 5 foot surge means water exiting the Passaic and Raritan watersheds has no where to go but over the banks. Couple that with a stalled storm with what looks like the eye 50 miles south east of New York city directed towards cape cod means twelve inches + of rain. Maximum sustained winds probaly near 60 mph. this is quite possibly the worst case scenario for the area. we would be much better off if it made landfall South of us in Delmarva
Power is going to be out a long time. for once I’m glad I live in the highlands, but there are going to be a but load of trees down. Get your chainsaws ready.
It is the end of days. The devastation will be comprehensive.
Damn generators are hard to find. I’m calling all around Morris county and can’t locate any.
At least tree damage and outages should me lessened by the extreme weather last year. So many trees were downed – golf courses looked completely different this year compared to last. Cleared out the “deadwood”.
Grim [36];
the cost of 1/0 wire is more expensive than the cheap chinese electronics.
Can’t fake copper. Cue discussion of metals futures trading…
Remarkable things here. I’m very satisfied to see your article. Thanks so much and I am taking a look ahead to touch you. Will you kindly drop me a mail?
The best generators are inverter generators, they have better surge capacity and extremely clean output for things like computers, electronics etc. They are more expensive, however. Yamaha and Honda are probably the best portable ones.
I don’t mean to scare anyone, but this is going to be nasty. Little Falls should be under water again. Grim, it will be a good test for your new foundation. For me, I’m planning on a flooded basement.
The rumor at Home Depot in Newton was that they were expecting another delivery overnight. They open at 6AM. Get there tomorrow morning at 4:30AM and stand in front of the contractor entrance. They stack them right by the Contractor entrance door. Lady at home depot says over 1000 people inquired about them. Good luck.
44.nwnj says:
October 26, 2012 at 11:20 am
Damn generators are hard to find. I’m calling all around Morris county and can’t locate any.
At least tree damage and outages should me lessened by the extreme weather last year. So many trees were downed – golf courses looked completely different this year compared to last. Cleared out the “deadwood”.
[39] Yowza!
Check out the predicted 5-foot storm surge and this loop only runs until 6am Tuesday (96 hours).
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SURGE_NORTH_EAST/SURGE_NORTH_96_HR.shtml
Yowza…follow the millibars to see the low. In that loop, the low is still 75 miles or so off-shore. If this occurs, Manhattan is going to be shut down for a week as the subways will most likely fill with water. I really hope most businesses in Manhattan have planned their contingencies.
Lib that is by far the most disasterous model I’ve seen, Lower manhattan is going to be a friggin mess.
I do not even know the way I ended up here, but I assumed this submit used to be great. I don’t understand who you’re but certainly you are going to a famous blogger if you aren’t already. Cheers!
Yup…Jersey shore towns are srewed too. Anyplace there is bay or ocean water will most likely see the highest water levels in the last 200 years. I know it seems incredulous, but that combined near record low with that massive gradient is really unprecedented. This also means that the models are doing a lot of guessing. Which is what makes the similarity of all the models even more spooky. You would think with all of the estimating they need to do, they would be coming up with much more varied tracks. Instead, they continue to focus on an area pretty much from Delaware to Sandy Hook. Just scary unprecedented meteorology.
|
the “skyboxification” of our society as an incident of money’s baneful influence. People pay money at ballparks to isolate themselves from others in the experience of watching a baseball game. It is a sort of a metaphor for something more pervasive: “At a time of rising inequality, the marketization of everything means that people of affluence and people of modest means lead increasingly separate lives.” If Sandel is right, that phenomenon is bound to make it harder for us to have the public debate that is called for in this important book.
Actually I have PSL seats so I can take my kids to a game without drunks vomiting on their heads while cursing out one F bomb after another.
Sadly JJ your right especially at NFL games. Hockey is not getting much better at Rangers games we were always profane but never during day games when kids were present. It made it fun to see how nasty you could be without cursing. now no matter when you go there is always some jackhole wasted, puking, and cursing up a storm no matter who is present.
Why are folks in jersey nancy boys. BOOOO HOOOO it is going to rain. I had only one staff member say are we working from home monday if storm comes, you guessed it Jersey.
I am prepared. I am charging my phone and laptop, throwing some ice packs in fridge and worst case I will be holding an umbrella while bbqing some steaks.
JC, it is nice and warm out. water does not go out. Take a bath, light some candles, have some wine. What is all this generator nonsense.
I talked to one Jersey Fruitcake today, DINKS. We finished out basement, so we then got a sumppump and in turn got a french drain and now a generator. WOW, guess what basement had a cement floor and cement walls and was only used for storage as it gets wet once in awhile WTF are they finishing it, plus no kids. What does living room and den upstairs sit empty.
Out on LI we dont finish our basements. It might get wets. Guess what if my 50 year old wood panneling and berber carpet gets wet downstairs boo hoo.
The latest GFS just came in with the low staying further North and West. Unfortunately, the GFS is usually lousy over 48 hours out. The Euro is my favorite and IMO tends to be the most accurate starting at 72 hours. Tomorrow afternoon, we will have a very good idea if she’s out-to-sea or Jersey-bound.
Sadly, one part me would love to watch this storm hit where it’s predicted to as I’m a bit of a weather geek. On the other hand, I’m probably looking at $10K worth of damage if my basement floods more than the 8″ it took in during Irene. Irene dropped 7″ of rain. This one is predicted to drop 10″ and potentially more. Losing power is almost a gimme so I will have the pumps set to be plugged into the generator on Sunday morning. Not much else to do but to bring the low lying basement junk up to the dining room.
JJ…how far off the sound are you? My gut tells me the storm is gonna cross the middle of LI. Good chance your grill is going to float away.
I have PSL seats in first row. Basically I paid a fee to line jump folks who had seats like that for 40 years. Best part, I have never used is their is a text number to security where you put in seat number and they come right over. But folks are good. Guy behind me brings his 14 year old daughter sometimes and opening day I brought my 10 year old daughter.Heck I took my five year old daughter to a game!! No problem. Meanwhile UD EZ at games is still fist fights and drunks and filthy bathrooms.
Jets and Giants have three classes, not two like books says. Prem Seats with PSLs between 5k and 25K with tickets between 205 to 700, normal PSLs with seats between 2.5k and 10K with ticket prices between 120 and 145 and the hell hole seats like Jets have UD EZ row 20 and up $50 a ticket and no PSL. Cant see game, drunks roll in half wasted ready to fights.
To my right NFL employee has seats, to left head trader at a broker dealer and behind a 40 year season ticket holder and a set of grandparents whose granddaughter is on the flight crew. My wife was very against going to Jets games as she knew it as dunks and blue collar losers. Anyone I take to my seats are shocked. It is a tale of two cities. I am completely isolated from the Upper Deck. I even have separate parking. But I am also segregated from the richer folk who have their own lot and entrance. Three stadiums in one.
Only questions what will Islanders do in Brooklyn, they have a small loyal blue collar fan based. Moving to Brooklyn will be the Bervelery hillbillies
Painhrtz – 42 says:
October 26, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Sadly JJ your right especially at NFL games. Hockey is not getting much better at Rangers games we were always profane but never during day games when kids were present. It made it fun to see how nasty you could be without cursing. now no matter when you go there is always some jackhole wasted, puking, and cursing up a storm no matter who is present.
around 1/4 mile. People were jetsking around two blocks from my house when Irene hit. I did my sidewalks and driveway around five years ago and sloped it away from house. Come Irene water went up to second step of house and stopped.
I may have to move my BMW again to dry land. Damm thing is so low to ground I dont want salt water in engine.
Libtard at home says:
October 26, 2012 at 12:09 pm
JJ…how far off the sound are you? My gut tells me the storm is gonna cross the middle of LI. Good chance your grill is going to float away.
I have 4×4 pressure treated wood that last storm I lived couches and washer dryer in basement onto them. Between legs and 4×4 they really cant get wet. If water is higher than a foot down there you are sunk anyhow.
Yeah all the people in my office that are from Manhattan think nothing is going to happen too. Or they just don’t seem to be as worried about it. I hope they’re right.
Funny in one way, it reminds me of how people from New Orleans didn’t give a crap about hurricanes when I visited that city pre Katrina. It was sort of the running joke that the city was below sea level when I visited NO. The NY attitude just seems a bit angrier.
57.JJ’s B.S says:
October 26, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Why are folks in jersey nancy boys. BOOOO HOOOO it is going to rain. I had only one staff member say are we working from home monday if storm comes, you guessed it Jersey.
Well there’s a chance of 5-foot surge up your way. Do you know how high it got during Irene? I know the swell were predicted at 4-8 feet, but not much of a storm surge as it’s path was very different.
I did the same thing but with bricks. After sandy passes through I’m thinking of putting all of the bricks into the generator box and returning it. Should work no? Heh heh.
62.JJ’s B.S says:
October 26, 2012 at 12:25 pm
I have 4×4 pressure treated wood that last storm I lived couches and washer dryer in basement onto them. Between legs and 4×4 they really cant get wet. If water is higher than a foot down there you are sunk anyhow.
I have no clue what happened after Irene. They evacuated my town. Some people stayed must left. I had to leave as I have three young kids. The two guys who stayed behind both grabbed they clothes and pump and before they could get downstairs the power shut out. One guys said in pitch black water pouring into basement no pump, everything wet and washer and dryer to heavy to lift in around 30 minutes everything was shot.
I moved cars, filled cracks, moved everything up high. Even duct taped doors shut. and sandbagged. One neighbor lost engine in car as salt water ruined it. Unless it is a used beat up full size american SUV four by four with high ground clearance it should not be in your driveway in the flood. You cant move it and it is trapped.
Libtard at home says:
October 26, 2012 at 12:29 pm
Well there’s a chance of 5-foot surge up your way. Do you know how high it got during Irene? I know the swell were predicted at 4-8 feet, but not much of a storm surge as it’s path was very different.
Social Security wage base increase to $113,700 for 2013 from $110,100 wage base for 2012.
For 2013, the FICA tax rate for employers is 7.65% each—6.2% for Social Security and 1.45% for Medicare. For 2013, an employee pays:
(a) 6.2% Social Security tax on the first $113,700 of wages (maximum tax is $7,049.40 [6.20% of $113,700]), plus
(b) 1.45% Medicare tax on the first $200,000 of wages ($250,000 for joint returns; $125,000 for married taxpayers filing a separate return), plus
(c) 2.35% Medicare tax (regular 1.45% Medicare tax + 0.9% additional Medicare tax) on all wages in excess of $200,000 ($250,000 for joint returns; $125,000 for married taxpayers filing a separate return).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/…
POTENTIAL FOR A DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK…
COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE…A REX BLOCK DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WILL INHIBIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANY
SYSTEMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NOAM. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TO UPPER FEATURES INCLUDING JUST HOW NEGATIVELY TILTED THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF SANDY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
AFFECTED BY IMPACTS FROM SANDY. 00Z/26 MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW
LANDFALL OF THIS SYSTEM ANYWHERE BETWEEN THE DELMARVA TO
MAINE…ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE MODELS INDICATE A MORE CONCENTRATED
CLUSTERING BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND TO THE TIP OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY
NIGHT…ALTHOUGH HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST NHC
GUIDANCE. THE LATEST NHC GUIDANCE TAKES SANDY INTO THE SOUTHERN NJ/
DELMARVA COAST LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING…ALTHOUGH WHETHER THE
STORM WILL BE POST-TROPICAL BY THIS POINT REMAINS IN QUESTION.
NEVER-THE-LESS…THE STORM IS VERY LARGE AND REGARDLESS WHETHER IT
IS TROPICAL OR NOT WILL STILL BE A POWERFUL AND HISTORIC STORM IN
THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES SAT NIGHT…WITH RAIN BANDS FROM SANDY
ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE S. EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS
THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WITH THE INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW AND A NEW MOON EXPECTED ON MONDAY…COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS
MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUE ATTM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SPEEDS OF
45-50G70-80MPH…SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATED LOCATIONS. WHAT MAKES
THIS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS IS THAT THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED
EVENT…WITH WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE LASTING ANYWHERE FROM 18-30
HOURS. THIS WOULD BATTER THE COASTS…LEADING TO WIDESPREAD DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION. STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS…BUT FLOODING RAINS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
ONCE AGAIN…UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS FORECAST WITH THE
GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTING MANY DIFFERENT LOW TRACK SCENARIOS. REFER
TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST TRACK AND FORECASTS.
The Euro model comes out soon. That’s the one I prefer.
The first evacuations in New Jersey were issued Friday afternoon for Cape May County.
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Hurricane-Sandy-Track-Path-Storm-New-York-Tri-State-Forecast-175941821.html?df245
So finally all homes in NJ will be underwater!!
Euro is way out East. NHC will have their next update at 5pm. Will be interesting to see which model they go with. Right now, the Euro looks great for spared destruction, but we are still far far away 72 hours from storm time.
http://i442.photobucket.com/albums/qq145/stuw6/post-1243-0-28270600-1351275176.png
Home prices rise but pressure ahead http://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-prices-rise-pressure-ahead-174852711.html
950 mb hope it stays on that track will still get hammered with rain and wind but south coast may be spared
5pm NHC report will be telling. All of the models are finally starting to deviate a bit.
The American Red Cross has a free Hurricane app that shows locations of shelters along with other info. I like the First Aid app too – nice to have step by step directions on what to do til help arrives.
Lib, et al,
The models can kma. Wobble is a fun word except when applied to a hurricane..
http://www.nbc-2.com/story/10878839/hurricane-charley-august-13-9-am-to-11-am
57. I’m starting to take all this Jersey bashing to heart. -sniff-
10-26
Electoral Outlook Obama 277 Romney 191
270 to win Election
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map?hw
79. He wishes. The rain will keep all the Obama voters inside.
96th hour on Euro has a direct hit to Atlantic city with a 940 low. So much for my sister’s beach house in Brigantine.
http://i442.photobucket.com/albums/qq145/stuw6/post-1243-0-88337100-1351275676.png
So the Euro has the storm making a sharp left right before NYC harbor. Lower Manhattan is going to be F’ed.
Glad I got to see what the Revel is like before it disappears.
83: Lib,
You can probably get a good deal on a room for Mon. night :)
Who’s raking leaves this weekend?
MTA planning shutdown, smart.
Hearing forecasts of 10-15 foot storm surges and 10-20″ of rain over north Jersey. Little Falls/parts of Wayne/Lincoln Park will be toast.
My office is 30 flights up and my generator is on the roof. How much water are you talking? I only can go up to the 50 floor before I have to start swimming
How are you planning on getting to work on Tuesday? Rowboat?
He’ll just swim… he’s superman
No, wait… he’ll fly
JJ
So how do you get to work on Mon/Tue when the LIRR stops running with signal box flooding.
Using modified sine wave inverters is for the most part fine. If you are that worried, put it through a 1:1 isolating transformer. That should clean it up.
The simplest backup is a deep cycle battery, a battery charger/tender and a 1000 watt high surge inverter. That should keep your fridge going for about 72 hours. Use the generator to charge batteries. Use BatteryLEDs for light and propane/wood for cooking. Radios for entertainment/ news.
Yo [79];
95% confidence in Obama’s 2 pt lead in Ohio? Only Huff Post. The Obama campaign sure isn’t acting like they have the same level of confidence.
Notice how nothing in that tally “leans Romney”? Its either strong Romney or ‘tossup’. Translation: We’re giving dear leader every benefit of every doubt to put out a propoganda piece to rally the base and demoralize the opposition.
And you call it ‘tripe’.
Moose [92],
Do I get a pony if Bomma wins? Or, can I at least get a phone?
Relo [85];
Just got a quote from a landscare that made me gulp. I can go buy new pro equipment to do it myself for less than what they’re asking. Backpack leaf blower, here I come.
92: Moose,
Notice also that any “recent changes” only go one way. Unexpected!
Stu – army corps will not make the same mistake again.
I’ll drive by later, but I’d imagine the flood gates on the pompton have already been opened in order to drain the reservoirs and basins.
The reason the 23 area got whalloped during Irene was because they dumped the pompton into an already flooded basin by opening the gates way too late.
My thoughts are that they expected a dry season and were hesitant to dump the reservoirs early, risking potential drought.
If Oblamma gets re-elected, is he going to blame the last four years on himself?
94: Also helps if you have teenagers :) I picked up the below this week for $269 to replace a less than one year old Troy Built that crapped out. Also have a smaller Echo which is a few years old and runs fine but is outmatched by the yard/tree tag team.
http://www.popularmechanics.com/home/reviews/outdoor-tools/backpack-leaf-blower-comparison#slide-4
Perfect mode of transportation for next week – good cardio too
http://www.dickssportinggoods.com/product/index.jsp?productId=12586852
Hey Lib, any suggestions on how to beat up Verizon to lower my Fios bill?
PS – good lease deals on Pilot EX w leather. Look at NPV of payments and buyout.
99: Good luck. Timing is everything. We wound up back with Cablevision. Which I hate.
Talking to coworkers today and noticed that most who live in nyc or LI are being dismissive of potential of this storm simply because Irene did not hit them as hard as anticipated.
Lib I used to live on the brig my first year at Stockton strange place. Lived on 13thright by beach
I priced out the same services on Direct TV and asked them why I should pay $140 when I could get It for like $60 on DTV? Eventually they offered me a great six month retention offer. Then I moved and they surprisingly lete reset my two year contract. Just try to speak with someone different than the frontline rep and you should do fine.
JJ, if you were a player and lived on the North Shore, you have concerns about the bay flowing into your living room, or damage to your Sanlorenzo docked out in the yard.
I drove to Valley Stream Long Island and got on the train. That for awhile as far east the trains could go on the south shore. No prob.
If that was not working would have just took sunrise or merrick down a few miles made a right and parked at Jamaica where you had all the LIRR trains and subway running. Or I could have just drove to work.
The huge blizzard of the early 90s, the black out, 9/11, Irene I never missed a day of work. Although suprised at amount of nancy boys who stayed home with Irene.
Blizzard was the best, we got catered lunch from Harrys and an extra day off for being good employees.
Although roads really suck now in snow. I recall some monster snow storm like almost 25 years ago and they made it a snow emergency only cars with chains and 4x4s on road. This was before every soccer mom had an suv so hardly any cars on road. I recall I had my 1976 CJ7 with the 3 inch lift kit and push and two bars and I was flying down Northern blvd like at 40mph on an empty road threw lights. It was great. Drove from Bayside to Oysterbay in a blizzard in like 20 minutes. Blew right by cops even, what are they going to do. You actually really needed the lift kit that day for ground clearance. Wish I had that beast now. Three feet of rain I would be flying.
Fabius Maximus says:
October 26, 2012 at 3:36 pm
JJ
So how do you get to work on Mon/Tue when the LIRR stops running with signal box flooding.
Using modified sine wave inverters is for the most part fine. If you are that worried, put it through a 1:1 isolating transformer. That should clean it up.
The simplest backup is a deep cycle battery, a battery charger/tender and a 1000 watt high surge inverter. That should keep your fridge going for about 72 hours. Use the generator to charge batteries. Use BatteryLEDs for light and propane/wood for cooking. Radios for entertainment/ news.
http://www.sanlorenzobikinis.com/
I love those sanlorenzos!!!!
I’m a some 30′ feet higher but a portion of the Vela development in northern Edgewater is right on the water.
I just saw this from last years storm, further up by Croton-on-Hudson: http://gothamist.com/upload/2011/08/2011_08_mt19.jpg
Should be interesting.
JJ: How in the world do you have time to post with such frequency? Unless you have a handbag collection your wife doesn’t know about you had to go ahead and Google that.
Here in the lovely Pascack Valley, they’re telling people not to rake leaves into the street before the storm hits — good excuse to slack off this weekend. Here at mi casa, the generator has been drained, refilled, and it works. (Are you SURE I can use the old gas in my 12-year-old Civic or my 9-year-old Corolla? Do I need to put STP in it or anything?) So less worried about flooding than before. Mostly I am happy that my new deck was delayed because I had to be out of town for 2 weeks tending to a family emergency so I don’t have to worry about a tree destroying a new deck. I patched the concrete between my front steps and walkway today to try to minimize water pooling under the steps and seeping into the house; I duct-taped the holes in the siding where my old outside railing was affixed to the house (contractor will fix this when he does the deck). All I need to do is buy tuna fish and peanut butter and then just hope the oak trees hold up. The latest 5-day map from NOAA has us in the 3-5″ of rain zone over the 5 days…if that holds we should be OK.
I have both an outside parking and an indoor underground parking spot at my office complex in Englewood Cliffs. I found myself having two cars for a the last few months and kept the old one in the underground garage for some time now (with the supers blessing). Building management stops in today to tell me the car needs to be out by Monday because the garage may flood as it has in the past. The problem is the car has one slow leak which developed into a flat, old gas in the fuel rails and a dead battery. Yes, I may have slacked on storage maintenance. To make things more interesting the garage is closed on the weekends and the entrance ramp is too small for a tow truck to fit through and there’s a ninety degree turn right up top. May be time to call those sheisters from kars4kids.
109: Jill,
This was my point in 85.
— good excuse to slack off this weekend
107/110 Zieba – This is what you can expect in you are in Edgewater/Hoboken Waterfront.
107/110 Zieba – Expect ->
River Road close because of flood 2-6″. Sewer plants in West New York, North Bergen, & Fort Lee dump station will overflow somewhat into River Road. Lots of debris.
Realize Palisades Medical Center employees will park in the North Hudson County Park and shuttle down to the Hospital. Hoboken Train station (both NJ Transit & PATH) closed – because of water coming around behind the tracks into the tunnels.
If you are up on the hill – Jersey City through Englewood Cliff and beyond you are ok.
I was a member of a volunteer ambulance corps at that time and was on duty during that storm. If you are in Edgewater, expect to be stuck. River Road will be closed in a lot of areas.
It’s funny when you hear a similar comment from more than one unrelated source….listen to NBA President David Stern describing Obama….specifically at 0:25……..fascinating…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1lMYkMreUg0#!
Thanks. I am on river but all the way up by the firehouse just south of the GWB. I concur that south of Rt.5 is going to be a mess.
JJ – reminds me of Blizzard winter of ’96-’97. I lived in Nutley with my gf, but had a winter apartment in Huntington Village to be close to my job in Hauppauge during the week. I was a consultant, so I was getting there to make my bank no matter what. One or two day missed equaled the rent of my furnished studio for the month. Anyway, I’m in Nutley on Sunday evening as the blizzard hits around 6PM as I usually drove in Monday mornings and headed home Friday night. Governor Whitman makes an early declaration that only emergency vehicles allowed on NJ roadways. Oh sh!t, I better get in my ’89 4WD Chevy Tracker and get into NY before they pull me over in NJ for being out. I decide to cut through Manhattan as it’s flatter and I figure just a couple of stuck beataers or one jacknife on the Cross Bronx will stop traffic forever. Almost 8 inches of snow on the ground in mid-town already, but I make my way to the Queens-Midtown tunnel. When I emerged onto the LIE, I couldn’t believe my eyes. Nobody on the entire road! I had the entire LIE to myself all the way out to Hauppauge. Never saw anyone except the lone spin out and plows. The entire LIE was plowed to about 4 inches of fresh snow and I’m going 50mph down the center of all 4 lanes with all the lanes to myself (patting self on back for purchase of brand new BFG off-road Radial T/A tires). I then notice a problem. I’m all alone on the road, but I see cars stuck in snow on every off-ramp. The off-ramps look to have about a foot of snow, not even plowed once. When I get off the LIE, my skid plate is digging a trench through a foot of snow (I had 8 of ground clearance). Saw a guy trying to dig out the rear wheels of his full sized Olds with a three ring binder. Anyway, I make it to Huntington where my parking lot has been mercifully plowed once, which means there’s only 8 inches of snow there now. The next morning it was thankfully plowed perhaps a 2nd and 3rd time as there was again only about 8 inches. I was the only one who made it to work Monday morning, all alone except for the guard who was stuck there from the night before. I spent the entire day picking up the phone and answering the same question from co-workers all day long, “Is anybody there? Who came in.”
Although roads really suck now in snow. I recall some monster snow storm like almost 25 years ago and they made it a snow emergency only cars with chains and 4x4s on road. This was before every soccer mom had an suv so hardly any cars on road. I recall I had my 1976 CJ7 with the 3 inch lift kit and push and two bars and I was flying down Northern blvd like at 40mph on an empty road threw lights. It was great. Drove from Bayside to Oysterbay in a blizzard in like 20 minutes. Blew right by cops even, what are they going to do. You actually really needed the lift kit that day for ground clearance. Wish I had that beast now. Three feet of rain I would be flying.
And then there’s this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ndc96UKRw0A
We live about 40 or 50 feet above Chestnut Hill Reservoir, which is a very low altitude backup reservoir for the City of Boston. It was built as the first Boston reservoir in 1872, hasn’t been used for drinking water since 1972, but is still part of the system. The surface of the water is maybe 80 or so feet above sea level. I went outside to look at the water level a couple hours ago and I think it is about as high as I’ve seen it in the 10 years we’ve lived here. I think grim is right and they’re letting go on upstream flood gates post haste before the storm hits.
Deal of the day.
Shop-rite has 20 pack AA and AAA batteries for $2.49 a pack. Perfect for LED flashlights and kids toys.
Stu (103)-
You should send your kid to jj for ball mastery. ;0
All you need for a hurricane is strong ale and rum.
Ernest – I may do a drive by.
Funny Clot. We’re pumping some money into the local Fairfield economy tonight before they get wiped off the map by the storm.
This wouldn’t be too bad!
http://i442.photobucket.com/albums/qq145/stuw6/Rainfall_Days_1-5.gif
Libtard,
4 inches in North Jersey and 8 in South ?
If it’s accurate. Still to soon to bank on it. Late tomorrow is when the forecasts will become less hazy.
WASHINGTON (AP) – congressional tax leaders expect the Eisenhower administration to ask Congress soon for another increase in the government’s debt ceiling, now at a peacetime high.
They are guessing that Secretary of the Treasury Robert B. Anderson sometime in the next few weeks will propose a new limit of 290 billion dollars. This would be two billions [sic] above the present ceiling and not far under the World War II figure of 300 billions [sic].
The present permanent limitation on government borrowing is 283 billion dollars. But Congress last year, as it has done periodically, raised this temporarily to 288 billion dollars, effective until June 30.
President Eisenhower already has suggested raising the permanent limit from 283 to 285 billions [sic]. But with the government hard pressed for ready cash, Anderson now is expected to ask additional temporary authority to borrow up 2o 290 billion dollars to get through the coming year.
Tri City Herald – May 18, 1959
Expat,
I thought the govt was going to have to raise the current debt limit before the election. Am I wrong? Or are they going to borrow from Federal pensions again to make it last an extra month?
We’re all going to die. It is the end of days.
I love old newspapers, same issue as above, Tri City Herald – May 18, 1959:
SANTA CRUZ, Calif (AP) Mrs Kester Krieg, doing her chores Sunday, looked out the window, saw a monkey peering at her. The monkey, dressed in yellow pants, was hanging from the edge of the roof. Mrs Krieg let out a yelp. Her husband came running and, between them, they caught the monkey and put it in the garage. The monkey, about two feet tall, tame and friendly carried no identification. The Kriegs say the owner can claim it any time — and the sooner the better.
[128] Joyce – It’s all just pixels on a screen, they can do whatever they want.
Got our prep done except cooking fuel. Tried one store but no dual fuel. Supposedly I can use gasoline in this stove but I’m not brave enough to chance that and it has to be well filtered. Will try again tomorow.
House should have closed today. I was in the brig one last time to clean up some things. Got paid two weeks ago so closing was sentimental only.
I hope they don’t flood. It never flooded for me but one never knows. Anyway, not my problem anymore.
Here, I am near the top of a hill and the land above me is grassland. Brandywine Creek would have to rise 50 feet before I have to worry. My only concern is extended power outage.
Good luck with your prep; let’s hope it is all for nothing.
[125] joyce,
4 inches in North Jersey? I thought JJ was on LI?
The Jets have a home game…..
Comrade Nom Deplume in leafy PA says:
October 27, 2012 at 12:00 am
[125] joyce,
4 inches in North Jersey? I thought JJ was on LI?
Gary, something lively to wake you up this morning.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTCRwi71_ns
I said after the first debate that if the needle didn’t move for Mitt in OH, O’s performance didn’t matter. When you look at this race overall, O was easy game, but the GOP just put up a bunch of Elmer Fuuds against him. Looks like we have the second election cycle that they threw away thier chance at taking control of the senate.
Come Nov 7th, grab the popcorn, the right will run the bus over Mitt and then the party goes further right.
My call for the election, O for the blow out 309-229. This is 96 all over again.
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Everyone please excuse gluteus. He’s been dry-humping Rachel Maddow.
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Girls.
They just wanna have fun. Make it fun. Challenge yourself. Every smile is a win.
And by the way, please let Jayne know that I’ve lived by her food allergy advice over the last few years and our old boy George is still kicking. Has all of his hair. Almost 14..or maybe 15 now. He’s on thyroid meds after dropping down to 16 pounds – back up to 20 and still looks like a small mountain lion. Still rolls over on his fat back to beg for treats.