Recovery = Unaffordable?

From CNBC:

Housing Affordability Begins to Slide

It is a double edged sword, no doubt. Rising home prices are necessary for the overall housing market to recover and for more borrowers to get back above water on their mortgages. Rising home prices, however, cut into the historic affordability that was bringing more buyers back to the market in the first place.

After rising steadily since 2006 (with a slight blip from the home buyer tax credit in 2010), housing affordability is now dropping on an index from the National Association of Realtors. Asking prices for homes also began rising faster than rents for the first time in November, according to Trulia.

“The era of increasing homeownership affordability in big cities is ending,” researchers from Trulia wrote in a recent report. While the price recovery is choppy market-to-market, strong rental markets like Denver, Seattle and San Francisco are seeing home prices leap ahead of rents.

“The price recovery is strongest in the largest metros, and price gains have now surpassed rent gains in the largest 25 rental markets. However, price gains are starting to waver in smaller markets,” notes Trulia’s Jed Kolko.

This entry was posted in Employment, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

78 Responses to Recovery = Unaffordable?

  1. can i AX a question? says:

    Is there any way to stop those mexicans from attending medical skool or from becoming highway patrol ?

    From Bloomberg
    “Psychiatrists Lead

    Psychiatrists were among the highest-paid employees in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and New Jersey, with total compensation $270,000 to $327,000 for top earners. State police officers in Pennsylvania collected checks as big as $190,000 for unused vacation and personal leave as they retired young enough to start second careers, while Virginia paid active officers as much as $109,000 in overtime alone, the data show.
    The numbers are even larger in California, where a state psychiatrist was paid $822,000, a highway patrol officer collected $484,000 in pay and pension benefits and 17 employees got checks of more than $200,000 for unused vacation and leave. The best-paid staff in other states earned far less for the same work, according to the data.”

  2. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Macroeconomics ring fence housing recovery

    onsumer confidence rose to a five-year high in November, according to Capital Economics.

    But the research firm says current economic indicators do not seem strong enough to serve as a basis for recent spikes in consumer confidence — and the fragile hosuing recovery currently underway.

    So the mystery is what has caused improvements in consumer confidence even as job numbers, gasoline prices and the threat of potential tax hikes continue to pose economic challenges for citizens?

    When looking at Capital Economics’ recent report and the Fed’s Flow of Funds accounting report, it seems rising home prices and household wealth may be causing some Americans to feel more positive. This is occurring even though Capital Economics reports that “equity prices are flat-lining, gasoline prices remain high, earnings growth is slowing and there has been no major improvement in jobs growth.”

    But what is improving is household net worth, and that may be a strong enough force to outpace all of the pessimism, especially after years of home price declines.

    The Fed’s flow of funds report says not only did household debt fall by an annual rate of 2% in the third quarter, but home mortgage debt contracted 3% while household net worth rose $1.7 trillion from the second to third quarter.

    This factor alone may be causing the uptick in consumer confidence, and Capital Economics doesn’t disagree with the notion that housing improvements are creating optimism.

    “The recent strengthening of the recovery in the housing market, which so far has culminated in prices rising by more than 5%, may have been cheering up households,” wrote Paul Dales, an economist with Capital Economics. “After all, house prices fell sharply in each of the five years to 2012.”

    Still, Dales notes consumer confidence is not where it needs to be even with the housing boost.

  3. yome says:

    “A real estate analyst from Riverside said he thinks next year will be a big one for California real estate. Bruce Norris predicts the median housing price will appreciate by 20 percent in 2013.”

  4. grim says:

    1 – Sandy OT was silly, just wait till we see the bills for that, I posted it before, but I’ll post it again, one of my cop friends was bragging for a week about how he got a $10,000 paycheck.

  5. Ernest Money says:

    Riverside/San Diego were areas where the bottom fell out of the market. Can’t compare to NJ and our Chinese water torture.

    When the bottom falls out here, it will be cataclysmic.

  6. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  7. yome says:

    What is the median price here?

    “The median price for a single-family home in San Diego is now $408,000. In November of 2011, it was $350,000”

  8. Painhrtz - Not like you can dust for vomit says:

    So David Lireah changed his name to Bruce Norris. California is broke they are taxing every productive entity and hemoraging people to less prohibitive tax states. Sure 20 % increase keep smoking the medical MJ dude

  9. yome says:

    “The median price for a single-family home in San Diego is now $408,000. In November of 2011, it was $350,000”

  10. yome says:

    Whata is the median price here?

  11. Mike says:


  12. yome says:

    Sitar guru Ravi Shankar — Beatles pal and Norah Jones’ dad — dies at 92

  13. Anon E. Moose says:

    “The violent rhetoric looks like a sign of weakness, not strength.”

    That’s how I’ve always seen it.

  14. Painhrtz - Not like you can dust for vomit says:

    I drink their milkshake? Like any wounded animal lashes out violently when cornered and about to die so goes unionism. Now if we could just get the teachers, police fire every public union to die the same death I would be truly happy

  15. All Hype - Mr. Oil, Mr. Gas, Mr. Coal says:

    The sheep in California love being taxed and following their leader Jerry Brown straight into the sea. Look for Uncle Ben to start buying California bonds by 2015.

    Also, San Diego is great but is not a real city. Downtown is dead at night except for the gas light district. Riverside is like living in NJ with the traffic and urban sprawl but it is 105 degrees all summer.

  16. Brian says:

    When my Father came back from Vietnam in the late 60’s he told me he had a lot of trouble finding a job. A lot of people disagreed with the war and took it out on the vets. He said the only guy that welcomed him back was his neighbor in Cliffside Park. He was an electrician and he told my father that he and the guys at the elictricians union welcomed vets and they would always give him a job if he needed one.

    Unions aren’t all bad….

  17. Brian says:

    Grim, can you unmod my post please?

  18. prtraders says:

    Down in my shore town the police overtime due to Sandy is already well over 1mm. Seems to me that in a time of crisis when people have lost their homes and taken significant hits to their income that a concession from the police union would be in order. Not that they should work for free, but instead of time and half or double time, those extra hours should be straight and not count toward pensions.

    I know fat chance. We must pay our heroes as they risk their lives to serve and protect. And sit by checkpoints.

  19. Phoenix says:

    Makes me want to take time off work and volunteer right away. Except now I need to work to pay for all of the overtime they are getting paid. Nope, no time off for me.

  20. nwnj says:

    Unions will be lined up first for the Federal money. That 60B Obama cash should offset a bunch of the overtime. What’s left over will be used for infrastructure and individuals.

  21. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Trading in their dollars before anybody gets wind it’s just paper:
    China spending on U.S. acquisitions at record high

    The local movie theater. The company that made your car’s electric battery. The plane you’re taking home for the holidays.

    All might be owned by China after a banner year for the acquisition of U.S.-based companies by Chinese investors.

    The value of these deals, once uncommon, hit a new high this year, according to data from Dealogic. So far in 2012, Chinese investors have spent $10.5 billion acquiring American companies, topping the previous annual record of $8.9 billion in 2007.

    Just in the past few days, 80% of AIG’s aircraft leasing unit was sold to Chinese investors for $4.2 billion, and Chinese auto parts maker Wanxiang Group paid $256.6 million for A123 systems, a one-time darling of the U.S. electric car industry. Earlier this year, Dalian Wanda bought cinema chain AMC for $2.6 billion.

    The trend has been helped by cash-rich balance sheets in China, and an increased willingness to look for value beyond the country’s borders.

  22. prtraders says:


    Federal money = someone else’s money
    So no reason to ask for concessions.

  23. Ernest Money says:

    Gonna be fun around here when all vestiges of civil society disappear.

  24. Painhrtz - Not like you can dust for vomit says:

    Hype I’m there enough believe me I know. San Diego is starting to turn into LA south.

  25. Fast Eddie says:

    San Diego is starting to turn into LA south.

    Take a look around North Jersey these days.

  26. joyce says:

    HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA)’s Mexican branches had become so well-known to drug traffickers as the place to launder proceeds from illicit sales that cartels began using special boxes to speed transactions, U.S. prosecutors said.

    From 2006 to 2010, the Sinaloa cartel in Mexico and the Norte del Valle Cartel in Columbia moved more than $881 million in proceeds through HSBC’s U.S. unit, said Lanny Breuer, assistant attorney general for the U.S. Justice Department’s criminal division. Breuer, along with U.S. Attorney Lorretta Lynch in Brooklyn, New York, announced yesterday the bank had agreed to pay at least $1.9 billion to settle money laundering probes.

    “We accept responsibility for our past mistakes,”Gulliver said in a statement. “We have said we are profoundly sorry for them, and we do so again. The HSBC of today is a fundamentally different organization from the one that made those mistakes.”

    The bank engaged in payment practices that violated U.S. law and interfered with economic sanctions, such as forwarding messages to U.S. banks that said that an HSBC affiliate was the ordering institution and not individuals or entities subject to U.S. sanctions, Cohen said.

    At least once, HSBC told a bank in Iran how to format payment messages so the U.S. wouldn’t block or reject the transactions, Breuer said.

    The decision not to prosecute HSBC was a decision of the Justice Department and was influenced by factors including the impact of the probe on the company’s employees and the potential economic effect, Breuer said.

    $1,900,000,000 fine. That’s a lot of money!!!

    In fact, it represents almost .07% (more precisely, .00069827 of $2.7 trillion) of their total assets!!!

    Not to mention: The HSBC of today is “a fundamentally different organization than the one that made those mistakes” (way way back in 2010.) It’s hard to even remember back that far.

  27. All Hype - Mr. Oil, Mr. Gas, Mr. Coal says:

    “The decision not to prosecute HSBC was a decision of the Justice Department and was influenced by factors including the impact of the probe on the company’s employees and the potential economic effect, Breuer said.”

    Your gubbmint in action. Probing employees would actually lead to individual indictments, convictions and prison time. I thank God every day that we have such hard working Department of Justice.

  28. Phoenix says:

    nwnj says:

    “Unions will be lined up first for the Federal money. That 60B Obama cash should offset a bunch of the overtime. What’s left over will be used for infrastructure and individuals.”

    Nope, JJ and Fast Eddie will be lined up sooner. And I hope they get their cut first. The sad fact is they probably will not.

  29. Juice Box says:

    Speaking of Mexicans when is it a good time to allow a 78 year old Mexican with one month left on his Pilot License to fly your Lear Jet?

    Guy looked like he had one foot in the grave already.,f0ca0e5e10b8b310VgnVCM3000009acceb0aRCRD.html

  30. zieba says:

    Aye caramba!

    Unrelated WTH news of the day: Paul McCartney subbing for Kurt Cobain as Nirvana reunites

  31. Anon E. Moose says:

    Juice [29];

    No age limit on pilots of charter or private & corporate flights, only scheduled airline service. I haven’t heard anything about that to suggest the pilot’s age was a factor.

    Up until 2007, FAA prohibited any pilot over age 60 from operating any domestic air-carrier flight (under Part 121 — think scheduled airline service. The “age-60” rule did not apply to on-demand charter jets — that’s Part 135; nor private and corporate flights — Part 91). This conformed to international (ICAO) treaty. In 1978, ICAO extended the age to 65, but one and only one pilot of a two-pilot crew could be over 60. In 2007, the FAA adopted the new ICAO rule (you may remember some press about the airline pilot shortage due to a glut of retirements around that time. Aside, here we are 5 years after the age-60 rule was made the age-65 rule and once again interested parties are agitating in the media about an impending airline pilot shortage… but I digress).

    Look at that smile. Alessandro probably thought it was a real plum assignment. RIP.

  32. Ernest Money says:

    hype (27)-

    Justice Dept is just making sure the gubmint gets its vig off terrorist and drug activities.

    Justice Dept and SEC are nothing more than legalized shakedown crews.

  33. Juice Box says:

    $85 billion a month now in Monetization. Bernake doubles down.Bernanke’s money dropping nimble helicopter has been replaced by slow moving super tanker. What else can ship what weighs about 90 tons in $100 bills?

  34. All Hype - Mr. Oil, Mr. Gas, Mr. Coal says:


    Uncle Ben will print for Obama’s entire second term. That’s 4.1 trillion Benny bucks for those who were wondering.

  35. Comrade Nom Deplume still on the DL says:

    [30] zieba,

    That is profoundly disturbing. And wrong, just wrong.

  36. Essex says:

    Man this place has gotten uuuugly.

  37. Ernest Money says:

    I wish the Bernank would pull a Cobain.

  38. Juice Box says:

    They should do a 3-D Cobain like they did with Tupac.

  39. Painhrtz - Not like you can dust for vomit says:

    only if he is a zombie and eats Novaselic at the end.

  40. Juice Box says:

    I remember mid 95 seeing Courtney hanging in a lower east side dive right after Live Through This made it big. I am amazed she is still around.

  41. Ponderer says:

    I am getting ready to conduct some research about the property tax appeal process in Bergen county and, as customary, thought I would come to the knowledge board to seek advice and guidance.

    I bought my home in August of this year and the most recent assessment is roughly 15% above the purchase price I paid for the home. While I understand that one would provide comps and other supporting documentation (and perhaps even an appraisal) to justify a lower assessment in cases where one has owned a home for some time, in cases of recent purchases like mine, would the purchase price of the home less than six months ago be a good stand alone argument to justify a lower assessment? The bank appraisal also came in at the exact price that I paid and it noted that the current market price of the home is best reflected by the purchase price. The 3 other comps included in the bank appraisal sold very close to the appraised values indicated in the report as well. In fact, could I make a case of even arguing for a slightly lower assessment than the price I paid (recent distortions of “price increases” in the last couple months aside)?

    I also would like to attend some of the hearings so that I can get a feel for how the process goes – questions asked, supporting documents presented, etc. – would anyone know when and where these hearings are held for Bergen county appeals and how to go about filing the appeal? Or, is this something best left to an attorney? I received a solicitation from an attorney and it seems like they keep a 1/3 of the first year savings – which, in my case, would mean the attorney would keep somewhere between $2500-$3000 if we are able to reduce the assessment to the purchase price. Worth it or go on my own? (I have a finance background and have a fair amount of public speaking experience so pretty comfortable putting together a comprehensive analysis if needed.) Any help and insight would be much appreciated. Many thanks!

  42. Ragnar says:

    Print, borrow, and spend till you’re rich in the USA.

  43. Ernest Money says:

    Courtney is there, but her brain is a burnt cinder.

  44. Ernest Money says:

    I do not want to see McCartney singing Teen Spirit.

  45. relo says:

    44: Search the site and you should find all you need (primarily from the ex-Montclair dynmic duo).

  46. Comrade Nom Deplume in the eye of the storm says:

    I have seen attorneys in the expat space paying a lot of attention to the Gulf states, notably the emirates. I wasn’t overly curious about that; seems to be pretty logical, but I didn’t drill down on it.

    Seems I don’t have to. The appeal is obvious.

  47. A Home Buyer says:

    44 – Ponderer,

    Dont quote me on this, but as my realtor explained it to me, comparable sales won’t get you far.
    What they really look at is your tax payment vs other tax payers for similar houses. If someone is paying less for a similar house with regards to tax, they will modify it.

    But I dont know for certain.

  48. Essex says:

    I saw Nirvana in Miami a couple of months before his demise. Epic.

  49. Essex says:

    McCartney can pull off “About A Girl” as that is essentially a Beatles tune. There are some mellower cuts he can also sing. Should be interesting.

  50. POS cape says:

    I’d like to see Paul sing “Polly”.

  51. Steve says:

    44- Ponderer

    I did it myself in Bergen County successfully this year. (I’m a corporate accountant who follows real estate.) Unfortunately, my town is doing a new town-wide reassessment, so my taxes will probably go back up again when they true up everyone’s property values. First, try talking to your town’s assessor, and explain the situation. If he doesn’t make an adjustment, then file an appeal before the April deadline. You will have to list comparable homes that sold close to October 2012. After filing your appeal, you may get a couple months to pick/adjust your comps before the hearing. Before the hearing, the town will provide you with a list of their comps. You will need to check these out and be prepared to explain at the hearing why these homes are not comparable (bigger, updated, better neighborhood etc.). However, the town may decide not to present their comps at the hearing in which case you do not address them either, and then the town’s comps are not submitted to the county board. It appeared to me that the county does not take any notes while they “listen” to you at the hearing, so I recommend giving them pictures of your home’s defects or any other documents they can file with your appeal. Your town assessor may offer you a lower assessment at the hearing, and you have to decide then if you want to accept the town’s value or proceed with the appeal. So before the hearing, you should decide what amount you would accept if it were offered by the town. Unfortunately, you cannot submit a home appraisal as evidence unless the appraiser comes with you to the hearing.

  52. NJGator says:

    Sen. Menendez pleads ignorance of s*x offender intern

    Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey said Wednesday there was “no way” for him or his staff to know that an unpaid college intern in his office was in this country illegally and had registered as a s*x offender.

    Menendez told MSNBC that his staff learned of the situation on Monday and that he himself found out just moments before going on the program.

    “I didn’t know anything about the young man’s status” before that, said the senator, a passionate advocate for a comprehensive overhaul of immigration policy, ostensibly the main subject of the interview.–politics.html

  53. Ernest Money says:

    Kid probably bl#w Menendez to get the job.

  54. Ernest Money says:

    Great job on the background check, Senator Slackass.

  55. Rinaldo says:

    Bruce f*cking sucks!!!! Such an overated piece of garbage. Any idea what the f*ck he’s saying or singing? I remember “blee blah blee blah blee baby we were born to run” Get him off and bring on a real singer like Sir Paul

  56. Rinaldo says:

    keep talking about the Jersey Shore the Staten Islanders will hate you even more than I do

  57. Essex says:

    Rinaldo. I respectfully disagree. In 100 years Springsteen, The Beatles and Dylan will be remember. You, of course, will not. Springsteen is a national treasure.

  58. Rinaldo says:

    A national treasure? than bury his sorry butt who can’t sing

  59. Juice Box says:

    Anecdotal saw Roger Waters on 7-7-7 he was great then, hopefully
    They will bring out the Pig.

  60. Ben says:

    Rising prices are necessary for a recovery? If your idea of a recovery is an unhealthy market where people pay more than they should, then I guess. Falling prices are necessary for a real recovery.

  61. Juice Box says:

    Interesting Celebrity meet and greet Auction for 121212.

    If I bid on this will my wife get mad?

  62. Ernest Money says:

    Ben (62)-

    Burn the mf’er to the ground. Then, maybe, we get some real recovery.

    Nah. The dopes in charge will drag out the Chinese water torture for years.

  63. Essex says:

    59. Betcha listen to salsa music whilst stroking your boyfriends bloated asshole you cum guzzling prick.

  64. Essex says:

    Ernest, lighten up Francis. People choose the lives they lead. They have control over these lives. Some are blessed and some are screwed. But we all leave here the same way. Get busy livin’ or get busy dyin.

  65. Fabius Maximus says:

    #66 sx

    He does have a point. There are a few acts that are showing that they should hang it up. With Bruce, I had “discussions” with Shore on this. The Stones were not as bad as their half time Superbowl show, at least it was only one song. Zak Starkey was the high point of the Who who are just shilling Quadrophenia. Jon Bon Jovi needs to reassess his place in life.

    The one stand out was Clapton.

  66. chicagofinance says:

    WickedOrange says:
    December 12, 2012 at 8:23 pm
    Fantastic piece.

    Doesn’t your caption go with this post?
    Juice Box says:
    December 12, 2012 at 9:44 pm
    Interesting Celebrity meet and greet Auction for 121212.
    If I bid on this will my wife get mad?

  67. Fabius Maximus says:

    #64 Clot

    Can I suggest your new handle “Grimble Gromble”

  68. Ponderer says:

    Relo (46); Home Buyer (48) and Steve (52):

    Much thanks for your insight. Steve – I will follow up with the town assessor to see how that goes. Hopefully s/he will give up a little something so that I don’t have to go the county level. Thanks again!

    And I agree…what is it about the Stones that the younger generation (and I’m talking grade school level as well) find so hip. Funny how these folks want to look so “hip” that they get hipped into being just part of the hipster herd. And yes…Clapton is jsut so cool. Billy Joel is sounding pretty good right now too. Aaah…the good ole days!

  69. Fabius Maximus says:

    ‎”This is a song Charles Manson stole from the Beatles. We’re stealing it back…”
    And Bono, you need to hang onto it!

    But with that, for all that I dislike about Macca, it only takes Blackbird to remind me of his greatness.

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