Zandi: Housing has got legs

From CNBC:

Housing Recovery Has Legs for 2-4 Years: Zandi

In November, existing home sales rose 5.9% to an annualized rate of 5 million, beating Wall Street expectations. Last month was the 17th consecutive month of growth in the housing market and the highest level of sales since November 2009. The national price for an existing home also rose 10.1% to $180,600 in November.

“I think housing is going to continue to improve,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “So for the next 3 or 4 years we will see better home sales, more housing construction and higher house prices. All of which is good news for the economic recovery.”

Even though there are roughly 3 million homes in foreclosure, Zandi is very optimistic about housing demand.

Here are the key points of his housing outlook for next year and beyond:

The recovery has legs for the next 2-4 years.
Expect a rise in sales, construction and prices, which could positively impact GDP. “Housing is a small share of GDP but can be a big part of GDP growth,” he says.
Investor demand for foreclosed properties will be high.
An increasing rate of household formation will lead to greater demand.
New home construction will pick up.
Home prices will rise by mid-to-high single digits in 2014 and 2015.

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40 Responses to Zandi: Housing has got legs

  1. grim says:

    From the NYT:

    A Mad Dash to Avoid a Bigger Tax Bite

    NOT that anybody needs more stress during the holiday season, but sellers and their brokers and lawyers across the country have been scrambling to close deals and avoid January tax increases that will eat into their profits.

    Sellers are agreeing to sizable discounts, some amounting to hundreds of thousands of dollars, while brokers are sprinting to keep up with the volume of deals.

    “I am losing my mind,” said Raphael De Niro, a broker in New York with Douglas Elliman, who said recently that he still had a handful of deals left to close by Dec. 28. “In almost 10 years of doing this I have never seen a scramble to close deals in December before year-end like I am seeing now.”

    What is everyone so worried about? Federal capital gains taxes — the tax you pay when you sell an investment — are expected to rise at the top rate from 15 percent to at least 23.8 percent. That would include a 5 percent tax increase and a new 3.8 percent tax on investment income levied on high earners to pay for health care.

    With all the December closings, some in the industry are predicting that early 2013 will be unusually slow.

    Mr. Peters of Warburg, on his blog, predicted that next year, “until individuals become accustomed to the changes, owners of large properties, with large embedded capital gains, simply won’t sell. They will shut their doors to a few of their bedrooms and stay put.”

  2. grim says:

    Trulia says housing halfway back to normal:

    Housing Recovery: Halfway Back to Normal

  3. grim says:

    1 – Closed another one up one yesterday, we were able to pull it forward by a week. I think it had more to do with everyone wanting to be in their respective new houses for Christmas than taxes though.

  4. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  5. Comrade Nom Deplume in heavily armed Utah says:

    I’d weigh in on the gun issue but it appears to be well aired. One thing I do feel needs to be addressed is the high cap mag and semi auto issue.

    Hi cap mags are an essential for rec target shooting, probably the largest segment of gun owners. I’ve done single shot and small mags and they are a PITA when you are at the range for awhile.

    Same for semi auto and black guns, which are lighter. They make rec shooting a lot easier and more fun when you are sending lead downrange.

    I invite gun control opponents to go to the range and experience for themselves that which they want to end because they feel it has no social utility. And if they are unmoved, then I want to know what socially useless activity or device they would give up. I will stipulate that it must cause as many deaths as guns. I think s lust could be assembled rather easily. We can start with entire classes of vehicles. And alcoholic beverages. And dope.

  6. Peace, Love, Dope says:

    “While the outlets convince their marks that a race war is imminent and the country is flooding with dangerous immigrants, while their ad sales departments make a mint off of survivalist businesses looking for a direct line to people stupid enough to spend thousands of dollars outfitting their bunkers for a cataclysm that’s never going to happen. The doomsday/Rapture/race war/civil unrest “prepper” industry will likely do $500 million in business next year; at the recent Self-Reliance Expo in Arizona you could check out water-filtering systems, freeze-dried food delivery systems, even entire bunkers. You could also, naturally, sign your kids up for firearm classes.

    This is the gun market. Those are the people that LaPierre was speaking to in his remarks today, not liberal journalists on Twitter. This is the movement to which LaPierre belongs. People expecting paeans to Jeffersonian defense of liberty, or a chastened call for open dialogue and productive cooperation, were kidding themselves: if you really believe that the society will collapse in your lifetime, what’s your incentive to cooperate?”

  7. Peace, Love, Dope says:

    When you say dope are you referring to weed or smack?

    If weed, please start with your list of all the deaths caused by weed in the last decade. I look forward to seeing it. Thx in advance.

  8. Peace, Love, Dope says:

    What happened to all the underground bunkers of the 50’s from the imminent missile attacks?

  9. Grim says:

    9 – Repurposed as Tuscan-style wine cellars. The ones built out of block are really easy to refrigerate.

  10. Grim says:

    Semi-automatic is largely misunderstood/confused by those who don’t know a bit about guns. Well, perhaps the anti-gun movement wants it that way. Semi-automatic guns have been around for more than a hundred years at this point, and are generally pretty low-tech devices. In my opinions, revolvers are semi-automatic as well, since nothing but six trigger pulls are required to fire six rounds. Therefore, this capability has existed for almost 200 years (sorry, I don’t know the history of the revolver).

    Skilled lever action operator can fire off rounds incredibly quick as well, but that is another matter.

    So what is the issue? Rate of fire? Magazine capacity? Caliber?

    I’d love to own a .50bmg or .338 lapua in bolt action, there are some fantastic examples of engineering and manufacturing in these cases, far beyond basic semi-auto firearms.

    But, just because these are bolt action rifles, does it make them any less dangerous?

  11. Ernest Money says:

    Git yer gat. The jackbooted thugs- under the guise of liberalism- are coming for your weapons.

  12. Ernest Money says:

    Bush: phony conservative, actually a fascist

    Bojangles: phony liberal, actually a fascist

  13. very Informative , we hope to get the business grow before 2013 arrives- Gonzalo

  14. Comrade Nom Deplume in heavily armed Utah says:

    [7] dope,

    From all related causes? Just pick up a paper or get into the business yourself. See how long you last before someone caps you.

    Dope is still illegal in most places. But in those places where it is legal, you will see auto fatalities. And I submit they probably already exist. And I submit that inhaling copius amounts of smoke, from whatever source, will cause health problems.

    But you don’t have to give up your weed; outlaw booze and vehicle use over a certain GVW unless you can obtain a permit certifying your need, and I will go along with heavy restrictions on firearms.

  15. McDullard says:


    I think the debate should have focused on what steps to prevent madmen from getting easy access to guns and going on a rampage. It devolved into a simple “more guns or fewer guns” debate or more powerful vs regular guns (I hope they looking at 20 kids vs 4 kids scenarios as vastly different).

    Better treatment of mental health issues might help — in this case, I don’t attribute much of it to some outrage machines (though the mom would have probably brought fewer guns if she didn’t feel that she needed to prepare for the Armageddon). Better parenting/social responsibility on her part would have prevented this completely.

    Is the gun problem closer to a drunk driving problem with powerful SUVs — so there is an arms race till everyone has tanks (and even then there is no guarantee of safety)?

    What about defensive steps? Schools with unobtrusive metal detectors, access to heavy duty armored clothing [even from army surplus], small bullet proof carts that can stop a madman that is shooting? Powerful firehoses? Metal trap doors close to the entrance that will just lock a person within a confined area?

    This incident is so difficult to even understand — evil without any motive. What would make someone go to such a point — all the while without anyone not noticing it or not doing anything about it? There’s also this recent news from India — a 23 yr old woman was brutally gang-raped in a moving bus and thrown out on the road [brutal as in doctors had to remove most of the intestines and the girl is still in critical condition]. They guys are going to pay for it big time. Only question is why would someone even do such a thing? Mental health? Power? Booze? Culture? [in India, rape is a stigma against the woman, and movies declare justice when rapist marries the victim!]

  16. McDullard says:

    Too much ESL skills on display in my post:

    I hope the media and public **aren’t** looking at 20 kids vs 4 kids scenarios as vastly different scenarios (which the “6 bullets good, 30 bullets bad” rhetoric seems to imply).

    It is just a rant — I have written some rants a lot of times this week and didn’t post [rants against how it does not reduce to a simple left vs right issue — and even if it did, the Dems and GOP will anyway do the bidding of the lobbyists; and no strong regulation of guns will happen anyway]. This situation doesn’t fit any simple labels — it’s even difficult to understand how the gunman arrived at this decision.

    Personally, I have been thinking of firearms training for over a year and then probably think about owing a gun [to protect against petty crime if the economy/country does to the dogs]. The main thing I worry about is what if I go nuts — my wife and I watched Shining a couple of times! Fortunately, I am generally slow with these things (I used a low powered electric chainsaw three years after purchase, and haven’t yet assembled the weights system after three and a half years).

  17. yome says:

    You hit the nail on the head. People thinking of owning guns should think how they respond to pressure.History of violence when they were kids.

    “The main thing I worry about is what if I go nuts”

  18. yome says:

    Guns dont kill it is the person that is using it that kills

  19. cobbler says:

    Unfortunately, the society always had to live with evil and madness in its midst – and we have to weigh costs and benefits of protection. Will we be less shocked if another madman shoots dead 20 Alzheimer patients in the nursing home, or everybody on a school bus? Do you seriously believe that if Adam Lanza knew the school were protected by the SWAT team, he’d still have gone there instead of choosing another target? Again, investment into the detection and treatment of mental disease is a better way for the society to reduce the number of victims than bulletproof vests for everybody, armored closet doors and roving guards with weapons at the ready. Gun restrictions can probably save a few lives per year by reducing the number of victims per “incident”… but one will face an impossible task if he seriously tries to disarm America; this train had left the station 200+ years ago.

  20. lovenj says:

    There are six McMansions under constructions within a few blocks from me. All were tear downs sold between 630k to just above 1 million. From latest listing trend, i think they will be listed 2 million or higher when done. They will contribute more to my towns budget. Feels like 2004 again.

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  22. Fast Eddie says:

    Armed guards and bullet proof glass coming to Marlboro School District. This is just the start of what will become the norm for many. How do you fight the bad guys? You shoot back until they’re dead:

  23. Phoenix says:

    Maybe this guy will apply. I wonder if he has a carry permit? Retired LEO- don’t they keep that status?

  24. grim says:

    22 – Don’t 1/3rd of NJ high schools already have police stationed on-site?

  25. Essex says:

    -thunderclap newman-

    One hit wonder. Song of the day.

  26. Essex says:

    ‘Something in the Air’

  27. funnelcloud says:

    Merry Christmas Mike !
    And a Happy New Year to all,
    I that 2013 will be a better year for our country.
    Mike Keep up the positive Blogging ,, Maybe we can get into more trouble in 2013
    Grim Keep up the great work running the site
    JJ Make your millions
    Brian & Meat “Antagonist to the end” God Bless am I allowed to say that ?
    To any I forgot: May your cups be full and your weed bags overflowing.
    Happy New Year

  28. Tiny Violin says:

    Fair Lawn HS has had a cop car posted daily for years.

  29. Comrade Nom Deplume in the packed powder says:

    Gun sales manager at Cabelas says chain is sold out of black guns nationwide. Mags and ammo clearing off shelves too. Says they aren’t even keeping a waitlist for guns. Said that in her 20+ years in the business, she never saw things this bad.

  30. Ernest Money says:

    Reading, writing, marksmanship.

  31. Brian says:

    When the Feds create the database of crazies, I’m recommending they list you.

  32. Comrade Nom Deplume in the packed powder says:

    [33] Brian,

    What makes you think it doesn’t already exist? DHS watches right wing groups so you gotta figure FBI is watching some of us. I know I have a file there because I had background checks; I have to believe there is more in it than what I put there.

  33. McDullard says:

    I have to share it with this group…

    There are some parallels to the reaction in India about the delhi rape case and the reaction here to Sandy Hook shooting. The “protestors” are clamoring for a one-step solution (“make rape a capital punishment!” and “put more gun laws”).

    The problem is complex — at least in the India case, there is too much stigma attached to rape victims, it is not a “legitimate rape” unless the woman was dressed conservatively, and was behaving in accordance to the thugs’ expectations. So, if one were to say that there is some systemic rot within the culture, that person is labeled “anti-indian” right off the bat. There have been high profile rape cases (without this much brutality) and brutality cases (even by police, where the victims have been killed), and there hasn’t been much action on those cases.

    With the shooting incident, huffpo, dailykos, etc., are hammering article after article about how many gun related deaths are happening. I’d venture to say the frequency has been roughly similar over the last few months, when the whole focus was on contraception issue, election, etc., and no one said a word when Bloomberg blasted Romney and Obama on lack of action on gun control.

    It’s almost the whole world is delving into packs of Pavlov’s dogs. I’m sure I’d also fit into one or more such packs, but it is a bit depressing. The reactions have been so far predictable and nothing will change anyway.

  34. Mike says:

    Funnel Merry Christmas To You Too!

  35. Essex says:

    James 1:12

    Blessed is the man who remains steadfast under trial, for when he has stood the test he will receive the crown of life, which God has promised to those who love him.

  36. Brian says:

    You’re missing the point Nom. Look, what exactly happened in Newtown? If we ever want to solve a problem, you first have to understand what the problem is.

    The details are still coming out, but it seems to me that the problem there was that a crazy person got a hold of a gun. I’m not talking about somebody who might have extreme politcal views….somebody who is legitimately sick.

    It was tough for me to understand mental illness for a long time. I think the idea of free will made me believe that a mentally ill person could somehow on their own overcome what was wrong with them. When it’s your arm or your leg or some visible body part that’s broken, people understand. When it’s your mind…’s very difficult for anyone to understand.

    I personally know someone who was diagnosed with bi-polar disorder with schizophrenic tendencies. I don’t know that he’s ever been diagnosed that way but his father has, and it seems he inherited it…… He has more lucid moments than crazy ones, and he’s never been violent, so if you met him, you wouldn’t even know anything was wrong with him. His father has been diagnosed with bi-polar disorder, and has been invoulentarily comitted on more than one occasion. Having witnessed his father’s rare but disturbing episodes, his family was able to convince him to sell the guns he owned. His father still owns his guns, and while I think he is a wonderful man, I worry. People who are sick like this aren’t always in control of their minds… I would add that most mentally ill….their minds don’t always go to that dark place but it might….

    So, what if you are not mentally ill but live with someone who is?

    So, what if you bought your guns before you were diagnosed?

  37. ???? ??? ?? says:

    ??????????????? ?????????????????????

  38. Phoenix says:

    4 firefighters shot, 2 killed at Webster, N.Y., fire.
    Is meat a prophet?

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