From CNBC:
Stocks Widen Gap Between Rich and the Rest: Study
At the early stages of the recovery, the wealthy rebounded while the rest floundered. One study found that in 2010, 93 percent of the economic gains in the United States went to the top one percent of earners.
Some chalked this up to political policy. Others blamed the Fed, or tax rates on the wealthy, or a rigged financial system.
But there’s a more simple answer: stock investments.
A new research paper from the Pew Research Center, using census data, found that from 2009 to 20911, the top 7 percent of Americans by wealth owned 63 percent of the nation’s total wealth – up from 56 percent in 2009. The mean wealth of the top 7 percent (about 8 million households) jumped to $3.17 million from $2.48 million over the two years.
In contrast, the mean wealth of the bottom 93 percent fell to $133,817 from $139,896.
The reason, according to the paper, is that stocks recovered and housing didn’t. The wealthy have their wealth concentrated in stocks, while the less affluent have their wealth concentrated in their homes.
…
Of course, housing prices have since started climbing back. The data for 2012 and 2013 could show more evenly distributed wealth gains in the U.S. and perhaps a stabilizing or slight decline in inequality.But for now the lesson is clear: the stock-wealthy did better than the house-wealthy.
From Merrill Lynch via CR:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/04/friday-q1-gdp.html
One of the common misconceptions is that the gain in housing demand owes primarily to investors and international buyers. In Q1, investors made up about 22% of sales, which is close to the average since mid-2010. International buyers made up about 2% of sales in Q1, which again matches the historical average over the past three years. Of course, in certain markets investors and international buyers play a bigger role. Investors buy a disproportionate share of distressed properties, making them more relevant in markets with high delinquencies. Similarly, in big cities such as New York, Miami and San Francisco, international buyers account for a much larger share of sales.
Primary homebuyers are still the largest share of the market, by far. However, the constraint for primary homebuyers is tight credit conditions. This has resulted in a greater share of all-cash purchases. Over 20% of buyers who are looking to relocate (turnover) and 60% of second home buyers use only cash. First-time homebuyers are still reliant on financing as only 11% of sales are all cash among this cohort. And of course, the most extreme is investors and international buyers where about three-quarters of purchases are all-cash. All together, about a third of sales are made without financing. As credit conditions gradually ease, which we anticipate, the housing market will open to a wider range of buyers, particularly first-time owners.
Good Morning New jersey
From Redfin:
Home-Seller Confidence Doubles in the Second Quarter
Here’s what sellers told us this quarter:
45 percent believe it is a good time to sell, up from 22 percent last quarter, while 44 percent believe it is a good time to buy, down from 54 percent last quarter;
32.3 percent indicated that missing out on future price gains was a major concern about selling now—down from 34.1 percent last quarter and barely exceeding the 31.9 percent of respondents that have no concerns;
52 percent of respondents indicated that they were planning to sell, up from 49 percent in the first quarter;
15 percent of those not planning to sell are renting out their home, while 52 percent of those who are planning
to sell would also consider renting out their home instead of selling, up from 47 percent in the first quarter;
85 percent of sellers believe that home prices will rise in their area in the next 12 months, up from 81 percent in the first quarter; and
21% of sellers believe that they would not get a higher price for their home if they waited a year to sell, up from 15% in the first quarter.
Interesting deck from the BEA:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/04/bea-myths-misperceptions/
http://www.nj.com/crime/index.ssf/2013/04/new_jersey_homicide_map_2013.html
Prepare for massive fail.
YEA I made a HEADLINE>
RE next to stocks is a bad investment unless you bought at right time. Remember it is all in at once, a leveraged investment and hard to double down or cash out.
For instance condo I just bought building was built in 1979 and from offering plan I had original prices of units. I then inflation adjusted 1979 price vs. my purchase price and interesting inflation adjusted the return was zero. A zero return of a 34 year period.
That was mainly because in the early 80s inflation was almost 16% in some years and RE was stagnant but it shows a point.
RE has rental property pluses, depreciation pluses, joy of owning etc. But like a classic car the overhead and lack of liquidity makes it more of an expenditure than an investment.
Back in January 2011 I bought some investment grade NYC munis paying 6% at par. I would find it hard to believe over time RE could return 6% a year after expenses
The poor net worth also suffered as many in a panic moved out of stocks in their IRA and 401Ks at worst time in 2009 and never got back in or got back in after lions share of profits were gone. They also stopped putting into 529s and new IRAs in 2009-2012 a mistake that will haunt them for decades to come.
GDP below 3.1 concensus at 2.5
D.R. Horton profit soars as housing market strengthens
REUTERS — 29 MINUTES AGO
(Reuters) – D.R. Horton Inc , the No.1 U.S. homebuilder, reported a 173 percent jump in quarterly profit and said the spring selling season was off to a strong start, sending its shares up 6 percent before the bell.
Record-low interest rates and rising rents have prompted Americans to buy homes, leading to shortage of new houses.
D.R. Horton is in a better position than competitors to meet this demand as it has a large inventory of homes built without a sales contract.
“We are in an excellent position to continue to meet increased sales demand and aggregate market share with 15,800 homes in inventory,” Chairman Donald R. Horton said in a statement on Friday.
Orders rose 34 percent to 7,879 homes, with a total value of $2 billion, up from $1.3 billion a year earlier. Orders are a key indicator for builders, who do not recognize their value until they close on a home.
Net income rose to $111.0 million, or 32 cents per share, in the second quarter from $40.6 million, or 13 cents per share, a year earlier. Revenue rose 49 percent to $1.39 billion.
Analysts on average expected earnings of 19 cents per share on revenue of $1.26 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
D.R. Horton’s shares have risen 52 percent in the last 12 months, slightly lagging the Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction index .
The shares were up 6 percent at $25.90 before the bell on Friday.
Grim biggest tip in your jar so far?
500 was the biggest
Looking forward to seeeing JJ on a CNBC headline too
“500 was the biggest”
Damn,
I’m in the wrong line of work!
Saw a 2.42 APR on a 15-year yesterday. I just called Carl to see if he could match it. If I could get close to it, it will be another 200 per month less on the multi and I’ll remove another year and a half off of the total loan. We bought the house in October 2004, so after 8.5 years of ownership, we will have essentially paid off 15 years of the loan.
Take that, you government cheese eating monkeys.
They just got back to me. Was offered the following:
3.25 with 2995 closing cost
3.375 with 995 closing cost
3.5 with zero closing cost
Currently are at 4.75 on a 20-year last refinance on 12/2009.
Time to hit the calculator and see how much interest I’m saving with the closing costs added and break evens.
[12] Richard,
JJ is too busy making commercials for Dos Equis.
Libtard,
Was there a typo in your original post? Did you mean 3.42 APR? The three options you mentioned don’t seem close to the 2.42 ?
Okay,
Sellers finally came back after we said no and accepted our offer.
Luckily I had booked der Uber inspecter earlier in the week and he will be there next week.
But my wife is getting anxious about the inspection and is pushing some others.
Has anybody used Aurora Home Inspections in Montvale? Thanks.
[15] Yo Libtard, which lender is getting you those rates? Obviously I’m looking into that now too.
Inspections are always interesting. Last two homes I bought as well as last two homes I sold followed the anything one can see with the naked eye one can’t get off home price as a result of inspection.
This condo stair rail was loose, a few outlets shot, deck siding was messed up, some floorboards not level and I got so what. You saw that when you looked at it twice so it was in your bid. I did get the toilet broken as it actually broke after I saw unit.
I did backpeddle and got more money off and I think inspection report when I backpeddled help me get a price cut.
But some inspection reports are funny. For instance when I sold my Mom’s house he came back with possible absestos, possible termite damage and chimney needs cleaning. I was laughing my butt of when guy wanted money off. Really, it is an 80 year old house. That should have been in your offer. Was foundation cracked, furnace broken etc. Otherwise lets go baby. Guy then backed out, next day we called second buyer and told him first buyer we are waiting on him for some stuff but if you want to pay 5k more you could have it today. Then first buyer calls back and said he will take house and we say once you counteroffer original offer is void, you countered when you asked for money off, sorry house is sold. Funny, guy paid an inspector to loose house.
Waiting In Rent says:
April 26, 2013 at 10:58 am
Okay,
Sellers finally came back after we said no and accepted our offer.
Luckily I had booked der Uber inspecter earlier in the week and he will be there next week.
But my wife is getting anxious about the inspection and is pushing some others.
Has anybody used Aurora Home Inspections in Montvale? Thanks.
But some inspection reports are funny. For instance when I sold my Mom’s house he came back with possible absestos, possible termite damage and chimney needs cleaning. I was laughing my butt of when guy wanted money off. Really, it is an 80 year old house. That should have been in your offer
If I was seller, I would have told him that I was raising the price on him, since the house now seems to be in better shape than I thought it was.
20. That, my friends, is how he rolls.
Big Wall Street banks and consumer advocacy groups like the Center for Responsible Lending don’t agree on much. But recently, these strange bedfellows have been brought together by their opposition to new rules governing mortgage-underwriting standards that have already been issued or are set to be issued by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) in the coming months.
Ever since the passage of the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation was passed 2010, these once-and-future foes have been fighting the so-called “qualified mortgage” (finalized in January) and ”qualified residential mortgage” rules (which is soon to be finalized). Basically, these rules say that if the loans they make don’t fit a certain profile — 20% down and a debt-to-income ratio no more than 43% — the banks won’t get certain legal protections from borrower lawsuits, and they’ll have to retain at least 5% of the loan on their books.
The logic here is pretty simple: One of the main causes of the financial crisis was that mortgage originators made loans with little regard for those loans’ quality because they quickly repackaged them and sold them to investors. So if these banks want to keep issuing loans without keeping some of the value on their books, those loans have to meet certain requirements.
Joyce: It’s for an investment property. There is always a half to full point hit above best APR on refinances on investment property.
Waiting in Rent: Get your best rate and call my broker. Tell him Stu sent you. They are no nonsense guys. Give em your equity, your loan amount, your terms. I’ve always gotten them to match my best offer. Good luck.
Carl Nielsen
Branch Manager
155 Passaic Avenue, Suite 300
Fairfield, NJ 07004
Work: 973-785-9400
NMLS# 12760
In other news, Victorian (an old poster here) called me and he is under contract on a place in East Brunswick. The house is in the development where I grew up. Small world.
24 – Stu – you need to call Carl and tell him to give me a sweetheart rate on a refi for all of this free advertising.
to all….how exactly are the typical rate locks handled, specifically if rates go down over the period between the lock and closing? Is this something that has to be discussed up front, is there a standard practice?
Waiting [18];
I used Peter twice (first deal fell through after inspection) — recommend highly. From my POV, you’re done shopping for inspectors.
Yup.
As someone who has used a different highly recommended inspector, I can vouch for Peter. He was 100% better than the original one I used who missed way too much on my multi.
I asked Carl for numbers on my primary loan. He didn’t come in as strong.
2.75 no cost
2.625 995 closing costs
Now do I go through the hassle of working with one of those shady online companies (who might not be true no cost or raise the rates a week from now) or do I just bite the bullet and risk paying an extra $50 per month over the next 15 years?
Hmmmmmmm. I might just go with Carl on both of them just to avoid the hassle of closing 2 loans with 2 different companies. I tried to negotiate with them on the 2nd loan (primary) and they are not budging even a bit.
Survey says?
‘Abenomics’ changing opinions and skirt lengths in Japan
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/04/23/business/japan-abenomics-magnay
“When the economy is good the skirt lengths get shorter,” says 20-year-old band member Yuki Sakora.
Japan tries to revive economy
Bold moves from the Bank of Japan “So when the Nikkei goes below 9,000 we wear long skirts; when it’s between 10 and 11,000 we go medium-length, and miniskirts when it’s 11 to 13,000.”
Their signature tune “Abenomics” has only been on sale a couple of weeks, but the audience seem to know it. An assortment of geeky 20-something males and the odd suited salaryman faithfully mirror the girls’ dance-routine, punching the air with glow-sticks when the refrain comes through.
Perhaps it’s because the Nikkei’s wedged firmly above 13,000, so they’re treated to the girls in bloomers.
Go with a 5-Year ARM at 1.875% after all it is ZIRP forever
[23] Essex,
Not a surprise. As was discussed here before, the new rules will cause credit to dry up for LMI borrowers, which was probably an unintended consequence of Dodd-Frank.
The subprime lending that went mainstream in the 90s in response to the Clinton Admin. efforts to pump money into poor areas (and yes, easily documented) will remain halted, which the community groups don’t want. For the banks’ part, they are still under the guns of the aforesaid “guidance” put out by regulators in the 90’s, and reinforced by Obama in the last couple of years. So if they can’t do old-fashioned LMI lending, they can’t comply with the interagency guidance, and will also have a harder time complying with the CRA.
Dodd-Frank leads to the amorphous situation where regulators will simultaneously be telling banks to do more LMI lending but also telling banks to make sure the loans are higher quality. That’s enough to give any bank exec a migraine.
So its no wonder that these apparently strange bedfellows (not so strange because, with the exception of Matthew Lee’s group, they were always in bed together) are uniting to oppose these requirements.
JJ… You are probably right.
I just did the math. If we go the zero cost option on both loans, it’s $142 more per month ($25,560) for 15 years to save a total of 63 payments or ($121,826) or a net gain of $96,266. Will go that route. I’ll do the 5-year arm when the rate reaches 0%.
Thank you Ben.
The push for subprime lending was not partisan Nom. The Repubs were paid handsomely by Wall Street to abolish the Glass–Steagall Act making the financial alchemy to support subprime leniding possible. The Dems (as they do so well) wanted to give more than Obama phones to their base to maintain their voting roles.
When it was all said and done, the middle class paid for it through the widening of the income gap and with less regulation in place at the banks than there was prior to to the repeal of glass-steagall, further increasing the likelihood that the scenario will be repeated.
As I’ve oft repeated, barbed wire will become very popular at some time in our lifetime.
Dow 30k?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-24/central-banks-load-up-on-equities-as-low-rates-kill-bond-yields.html
Subprime started when they abolished “red-lining” and forced banks to lend to broke people in bad neighborhoods
Rich people in rich neighborhoods make for better credit quality and better collateral.
Back in the day when I was 21 we only lent to folks in good neighborhoods with steady income and a minimum of 25% down. Flash forward to 2008 and that same bank I once worked for was a TARP victim as they would take you pulse and lend you cash and got caught in the game of musical chairs.
Back in 1985 when they owned mortgages outright they had 30 year mortgages on books from 1955-1985 that were originally 25% down. When we had S&L crisis the breezed through as very few homes fell more than 30% and it would have only effect homes on their books in the 1986-1989 time period. In 1989 they had mortgages as far back as 1959.
JB Microsoft stock is a 2.3% CD.
[35] lib,
Partisan? Wasn’t going for partisan. In my line of work, you deal with the regs, the regulators, and the law. It is what it is and if there is partisanship, you have to look to the legislative history. Not relevant for my purposes.
Fact is, much of the legislation that got us to this point was signed by democratic presidents, having been passed with bipartisan support. Accident of history, I suppose. So there really shouldn’t be partisan bickering but there is.
I do like to note these facts because they are effective foils for those who like to blame the financial crisis on one particular party, now no longer in power. Revisionist history hasn’t been able to erase the Federal Register. Yet.
[37] JJ
Direct and succinct as usual. But no sex????
Taibbi – Everything Is Rigged
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/everything-is-rigged-the-biggest-financial-scandal-yet-20130425
Quote from Taibbi’s article
“The idea that prices in a $379 trillion market could be dependent on a desk of about 20 guys in New Jersey should tell you a lot about the absurdity of our financial infrastructure.”
Little more on the ICAP scandal
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-10/icap-brokers-on-treasure-island-said-to-reap-isdafix-rewards.html
I had a bad experience at that bank. One of the girls was smoking insane hot that even made me nervous. I was her new boss and whole branch was on camera and folks on platform mgt had to stay apart from tellers a bit. I ended up leaving a few weeks after we started. Never could close deal, she had a BF too.
Anyhow like seven years later I run into her in China Club at two am she runs over and kisses me on check was so happy to see me gave me hug. I am like OMG, finally. Then she throws out her sister is my girl friends best friend and she just made connection day before and WOW then she sees me. I tell my buddy that did over 200 girls about this, he says let me see this chick. Long story short he does her twice and said she was best lay of his life, guy already did 200 girls!!!! And at least 20 sweedish strippers. Of course he dumped her then I run into her after I dump her sisters best friend again and of course I have to try again. And she was all like you dump my friend, introduce me to a guy who does me and then dumps me and now you want to hang out? Apparantly that is bad form. But really?
Comrade Nom Deplume, Bostonian says:
April 26, 2013 at 1:57 pm
[37] JJ
Direct and succinct as usual. But no sex????
That may be his first actual example of no sex.
I like ICAP a lot. Good Folk. They have season tickets right next to me. When they cant take clients etc. they give the seats to the girls in the office. Like two or three games a year the smoking hot “assistant traders” sit by me. This one asian girl really supper cool always shows up with two beers, drank 8 beers last game by half time and is very touch feelly. Plus I usually get on camera a lot with ICAP girls there. The guys are pretty cool too, one is a crazy Jet nut, we scream hang over rail high five players and cheerleaders, cool enough I get beers I get some for them, they get beers the get some for me. The hot asian girl drives me and the guy behind me nuts during games. Guy behind me is like 75 has season tickets since Shea. The asian girl loves to touch and talk by third beer. Her hand is always on my thigh. The opening day bills game was like 80 degrees last summer and she had short shorts on and a cut off jets shirt. Anyhow I could not pay full attention to her as it was a full game so she had her hand on grandpas leg, arm, leaned into him and hugged him for touchdowns. I thought he was going to drill a hole through the chair with his 75 year old wiener.
They have good connections to get a bunch of row one sideline season tickets. Even more connnections to be able to sit next to me.
Nope and even worse I tried for sister next year then gave up. I dont like the fact that being caught cheating with a Marilyn Monroe impersonator in full costume is a bad thing. Really, what else was I to do. I should have got a free pass. To this day it bugs me it was a no win situation.
Theo says:
April 26, 2013 at 4:01 pm
That may be his first actual example of no sex.
41. I think Tiabbi is a whiny little pu$$y.
Libor barely deviated from the trend of the real price fixer, the US government’s central bank. Where is his outrage about the Fed massively manipulating all of the interest rates on earth? Or engineering in a roughly 3% annual decline in the value of the currency and of people’s savings. Now that’s a big F-ing conspiracy run by a cabal in government who we elect. I haven’t seen pu$$y Tiabi write about that because it’s not evil banksters running that scam (even though they suckle on that teat as well via manipulated deposit rates and the discount rate window). The rules of Libor and the London Gold close have been out there for all to see for decades. Much more transparent than how central banks decide what interest rates to set. I personally wouldn’t invest in something where a committee decides what the price is. Though I doubt that either one dramatically deviates from undelying pricing drivers for long.
I also think it’s dumb to complain about pricing set over the counter. If you don’t want to get jerked around, don’t invest in thinly traded, opaque markets.
48
It proves the obvious that he is just interested in making a name for himself and increasing site traffic to his articles … not the real systemic problems. Nothing new
(continuing)… He’s making money off the system he claims to abhor.
All night passion gets me through the day
All night, all night passion
All night, all night passion
All night passion gets me through the day
Basically how I feel every trading day!!!!! When I am making money of course
Stu: you need to give the optical disclaimer…..
Libtard in the City says:
April 26, 2013 at 11:35 am
Joyce: It’s for an investment property. There is always a half to full point hit above best APR on refinances on investment property.
Waiting in Rent: Get your best rate and call my broker. Tell him Stu sent you. They are no nonsense guys. Give em your equity, your loan amount, your terms. I’ve always gotten them to match my best offer. Good luck.
Carl Nielsen
Branch Manager
155 Passaic Avenue, Suite 300
Fairfield, NJ 07004
Work: 973-785-9400
NMLS# 12760
optical disclaimer?
You mean, that I’m a janitor so one should not take my advice unless it’s about cleaning up puke.
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Libtard is a janitor, or at least he’s paid like one.
Yeah what #55 said.
Patriots selected a corner from Rutgers. Hmmmm.
And now a safety from Rutgers? WTF?
Rutgers puts some serious talent into the NFL. Ray Rice, Kenny Britt, Anthony Davis. And of course, Ray Lucas.
After yesterday, Geno Smith though it couldn’t get any worse.
I feel sorry for the Jets fans (and the rest of us) that will have to listen to this rave from the grave for the next load of years.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZY7ALo8MXWg
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