From the Record:
High-end homes in North Jersey await price rebound
Home sales and prices are beginning to rebound in North Jersey, but what effect that will have on the still-sluggish higher end of the market – which slumped the most in 2012 – remains to be seen.
Prices of single-family homes in Bergen County rose 5.9 percent for the first five months of this year, to a median $413,000, while prices in Passaic County rose less than 1 percent, according to multiple listing services in both counties.
That’s a marked improvement from 2012, when, according to an analysis by The Record, home prices dropped 1.3 percent in Bergen and 1.7 percent in Passaic. Prices of homes $700,000 and up in Bergen and Passaic — stung by the loss of thousands of high-paying jobs that vanished in the recession — fared much worse, dropping 6.6 percent, the analysis shows.
Although the listings services don’t break the 2013 sales down by prices, evidence that the overall market is gaining is potentially good news for sellers in towns like Demarest, Old Tappan and Saddle River, which suffered double-digit price declines last year, according to The Record’s analysis. As home values firm up in the middle of the market, more households may find they have the equity to trade up and boost values in those towns.
For now, however, “The upper end is still sluggish,” said Robert Abbott of Abbott & Caserta Realtors in Ho-Ho-Kus.
Patricia Nichols, a fashion industry executive, has seen it firsthand.
Looking to downsize after her daughter left for college, she sold her five-bedroom Upper Saddle River colonial in 2012 for $780,000 — about 22 percent less than her original asking price in 2010.
“Would I have liked to have gotten more? Of course,” said Nichols, who moved to a town house. “But it was almost a two-year process. At some point, you have to cut your losses.”
Part of the problem is fewer buyers. From 2006 to 2011, the North Jersey economy lost 10 percent of the jobs in industries where the average salary is at least $80,000, according to an analysis of jobs data by The Record. One example: The number of finance jobs in New Jersey — about 249,000 — is down by about 11.5 percent from 2005.
“The labor markets have fewer top-end salaries than they did before,” said Jeffrey Otteau, an East Brunswick appraiser who tracks the housing market statewide.
In addition, fewer households can trade up to luxury homes, because their current homes haven’t been gaining value.
“Demand for high-priced houses depends on appreciation and equity buildup in the middle-priced houses,” Otteau said. “That has not occurred.”
In Bergen County, the 5.9 percent increase in prices in the first five months of this year was accompanied by a 12.5 percent rise in sales, according to the New Jersey Multiple Listing Service. In Passaic County, the number of sales rose 18 percent in the first five months of this year, though prices rose less than 1 percent, according to the Garden State Multiple Listing Service.
There were more sales at the lower end of the market than the higher end in 2012, according to The Record’s analysis. That’s partly because there were a lot more distressed properties — foreclosures and short sales, in which a lender accepts less than is owed on the mortgage — on the market than a few years ago.
Of the roughly 8,900 home sales in the two counties, 1,900 went for less than $250,000, and 1,500 for more than $600,000. By contrast, in 2007, during the housing boom, only about 750 went for less than $250,000 while 2,600 sold for more than $600,000.
I think the main trend here is that the high-end isn’t seeing the same kind of pricing bounce back because the prices at the high-end just didn’t fall as much, as well, they didn’t increase as much during the bubble.
Take a look at the trend – From last month’s S&P Case Shiller report (we’ll have another snapshot next Tuesday):
S&P Case Shiller Tiered Index for NY Metro (not adjusted for inflation)
Low Tier (Under $256247)
Jan 1, 2000 – 100
Peak – August 2006 – 259.47 (Up 159.5% from Jan 1, 2000)
Bottom – April 2012 – 161.43 (Down 37.8% from Peak)
Current – March 2013 – 169.15 (Up 4.8% from Bottom, Up ~4.1% per year from 2000)
Mid Tier ($256247 – $420580)
Jan 1, 2000 – 100
Peak – September 2006 – 224.17 (Up 124.2% from Jan 1, 2000)
Bottom – March 2012 – 159.45 (Down 28.9% from Peak)
Current – March 2013 – 164.55 (Up 3.2% from Bottom, Up ~3.9% per year from 2000)
High Tier (Over $420580)
Jan 1, 2000 – 100
Peak – June 2006 – 193.24 (Up 93.2% from Jan 1, 2000)
Bottom – March 2012 – 152.02 (Down 21.3% from Peak)
Current – March 2013 – 155.88 (Up 2.5% from Bottom, Up ~3.5% per year from 2000)
From CNBC:
Mortgage Applications Slide as Interest Rates Jump
Interest rates on U.S. home mortgages rose last week to hit their highest level in over a year, sapping demand from potential homeowners, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.
Rates climbed 2 basis points to average 4.17 in the week ended June 14, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. It was the highest level since March of last year.
After hovering around record lows, rates have surged for six weeks in a row, pushed higher by worries that the Federal Reserve could slow its stimulus program sooner than had been expected. Rates have accelerated by 58 basis points since the start of May.
…
The rise in rates appeared to hold back homebuyers as MBA’s seasonally adjusted index of loan requests for home purchases – a leading indicator of home sales – fell 3 percent.
The gauge of refinancing applications slipped 3.4 percent, though the refinance share of total mortgage activity held steady at 69 percent of applications.
The overall index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, declined 3.3 percent.
From the Atlantic:
Meet the Nation’s Toughest New Foreclosure Protection Law
This week, the city of Lynn, Massachusetts, northeast of Boston, began to implement what may be the strongest foreclosure ordinance in the country. For starters – as is already the case across some states, but not Massachusetts – banks must engage in pre-foreclosure mediation with homeowners attempting to find a “commercially reasonable alternative” to foreclosure. This means that if banks would lose less money modifying a loan than foreclosing on the property, they need to consider that option.
The other two elements of the law are more radical. At the start of the foreclosure process, the bank must put up a $10,000 cash bond to the city. If the bank maintains the property, it gets that money back when a new owner finally takes over the home. If the bank looks away while the roof caves in, the city can spend down that cash keeping foreclosed homes from becoming civic eyesores. A federal court has already upheld a similar bond requirement in Springfield, Massachusetts.
The last part? Massachusetts and other states already have a law in place requiring banks to let renters stay in a foreclosed home until it’s sold to a new owner. The new Lynn ordinance goes one step further: Banks must now allow the foreclosed homeowners themselves to become renters at a reasonable market rate, if they can afford it.
“And in most cases they would,” says Grace Ross, coordinator of the Massachusetts Alliance Against Predatory Lending, which advocated for the ordinance. “Most folks, in our experience, could afford to pay their mortgage if their mortgage was based on the present-day value of the home.”
From Bloomberg:
Deutsche Bank Settles Los Angeles Suit Over ‘Slumlord’ Claims
Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) reached a settlement with the city of Los Angeles to resolve a lawsuit claiming the bank acted like a “slumlord” and let foreclosed homes in low-income neighborhoods fall into disrepair.
The bank and the Los Angeles city attorney filed a joint notice of settlement June 17 in California state court. The two sides reached an agreement in principle and are in the process of completing the documentation, according to the filing.
Terms of the settlement of the two-year-old lawsuit, which also accused Deutsche Bank of illegally evicting tenants, weren’t disclosed in the filing.
Los Angeles sued the Frankfurt-based bank in May 2011, claiming Deutsche Bank had become one of the major “slumlords” in the city by buying more than 2,200 properties through foreclosure. California Superior Court Judge Elihu Berle at an April 8 hearing denied the bank’s request to dismiss the case.
City Attorney Carmen Trutanich had sought a court order for Deutsche Bank to clean up the properties and comply with the municipal code, a penalty of $2,500 a day for each violation of the code and restitution. The bank faced liabilities of “hundreds of millions of dollars,” the city attorney said in 2011.
From the Independent over in UK:
‘Generation rent’: Young people need 30 years to save for a house deposit, says Shelter
Single people in their twenties will now have to save for up to 30 years before they can afford a deposit, raising the prospect that an entire generation may never own their home, a charity said today.
Independent research commissioned by housing charity Shelter shows that people in their 20s have become locked out of home ownership, as ‘generation rent’ struggles to own property.
Single people face the greatest barriers to home ownership. A single person could need more than 14 years to save enough for a deposit unless they can find a partner, trapping many in uncertain private renting or forcing them to live with their parents well into adulthood. Affordability is worst in London, with single people facing an average of 30 years of saving, while couples with children face 21 years.
Couples who start a family in their 20s could be saving for a deposit for 12 years – nearly double the time faced by childless couples.
from yesterday, very interesting to learn somethin new. so, after all, she supported universal health care. ain’t that typical.
“A heavy smoker who refused to believe that smoking causes cancer brings to mind those today who are equally certain there is no such thing as global warming. Unfortunately, Miss Rand was a fatal victim of lung cancer.
However, it was revealed in the recent “Oral History of Ayn Rand” by Scott McConnell (founder of the media department at the Ayn Rand Institute) that in the end Ayn was a vip-dipper as well. An interview with Evva Pryror, a social worker and consultant to Miss Rand’s law firm of Ernst, Cane, Gitlin and Winick verified that on Miss Rand’s behalf she secured Rand’s Social Security and Medicare payments which Ayn received under the name of Ann O’Connor (husband Frank O’Connor).
As Pryor said, “Doctors cost a lot more money than books earn and she could be totally wiped out” without the aid of these two government programs. Ayn took the bail out even though Ayn “despised government interference and felt that people should and could live independently… She didn’t feel that an individual should take help.”
Ottoman says:
June 18, 2013 at 1:39 pm
Spoiler Alert:
My favorite part of Atlas Shrugged is when Dagny develops a three pack a day smoking habit which riddles her once youthful bosom with a raging case of lung cancer; making her so paranoid of being bankrupted by the free market medical and insurance system that she sends her secretary down to the local social security office to grab handouts from the collective she spent her life railing against.
Or was that Ayn Rand? I always get those two shining models of self sufficiency mixed up.
Suck at the gubmint teat until you become a fat bag of mayonnaise.
Amerikan dream.
Anon [7];
Nothing so dangerous as one who knows little. You are very dangerous indeed.
Why is it that in order to prove one’s bona fides to getting their pocket picked, you have to voluntarily surrender the meager benefits that were promised in exchange for the theft? I’ve never heard a liberal say that “To prove I’m not a hypocrite, I’m paying TWICE my calculated tax burden his year!” To a liberal, only someone on the right has to do more than even the mother state asks of them.
Grim never realized it was the main goal in life to be able to buy a house. Another momma governemtn please help life isn’t fair plea.
Coming soon to a New Jersey near you:
The following are some facts about Detroit that are absolutely mind-blowing…
1 – Detroit was once the fourth-largest city in the United States, and in 1960 Detroit had the highest per-capita income in the entire nation.
2 – Over the past 60 years, the population of Detroit has fallen by 63 percent.
3 – At this point, approximately 40 percent of all the streetlights in the city don’t work.
4 – Some ambulances in the city of Detroit have been used for so long that they have more than 250,000 miles on them.
5 – 210 of the 317 public parks in the city of Detroit have been permanently closed down.
6 – According to the New York Times, there are now approximately 70,000 abandoned buildings in Detroit.
7 – Approximately one-third of Detroit’s 140 square miles is either vacant or derelict.
8 – Less than half of the residents of Detroit over the age of 16 are working at this point.
9 – If you can believe it, 60 percent of all children in the city of Detroit are living in poverty.
10 – According to one very shocking report, 47 percent of the residents of Detroit are functionally illiterate.
11 – Today, police solve less than 10 percent of the crimes that are committed in Detroit.
12 – Ten years ago, there were approximately 5,000 police officers in the city of Detroit. Today, there are only about 2,500 and another 100 are scheduled to be eliminated from the force soon.
13 – Due to budget cutbacks, most police stations in Detroit are now closed to the public for 16 hours a day.
14 – The murder rate in Detroit is 11 times higher than it is in New York City.
15 – Crime has gotten so bad in Detroit that even the police are telling people to “enter Detroit at your own risk”.
16 – Right now, the city of Detroit is facing $20 billion in debt and unfunded liabilities. That breaks down to more than $25,000 per resident.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/rotting-decaying-and-bankrupt-if-you-want-to-see-the-future-of-america-just-look-at-detroit
11 – I thought that UK piece was interesting, but in the back of my mind couldn’t help but think it’s just a variation of the “Buy now or be priced out forever” theme. But, after mulling over a bagel and a third coffee, it ain’t that different here really, is it?
How long would it take a single individual household renting in NYC to be able to save up enough to buy a 2br in NYC? Probably a pretty damn long time. Throw a kid in the mix, even with a couple, and that seriously dampens the savings rate.
When did we all get so poor?
Moose don’t bother trying to explain to Anon (bereft of rational thought one) the idea of market distortion due to government intervention in healthcare or participation does not make you a hypocrite but it can make you a critic on the wrongness of the whole.
@billmaher: That Snowden don’t quit!Personally, I’d rather be spied on by Bush than Obama. If someone had to read your e mails, wldn’t U pick the idiot?
Grim that was the impression I got as well with a little bit of we need government intervention. UK market is a unique one though where you may own the house but have to lease the land. And if there was one place they were not making any more of it that would be the UK.
When did we all get so poor?
Speaking of poor. Chelsea Clinton and husband (sorry dude, you don’t rank) buy a $10.5m apartment in NYC?
Huh?
$10.5m?
Problem today is kids dont want to save. Newlywed couples I know while “saving” for a house have two leased cars, two smart phones, wi-fi at home, cable, go on vacation, wear nice clothes and go to starbucks everymorning and dinner with friends on Saturday night and eat out lunch every day as well as belong to a gym.
When I was saving for a house. We lived in my cheap “bachelor” pad, had one used car and we both walked to train. I had one paid for work cell phone and wife had a burner phone for emergencies, no gym, no starbucks, wife bought lunch to work, I did not cuase on wall street that looks weird. I banked 100% of her check and 20% of my check and bought a house with 40% down 27 months after wedding.
Looking back it would have easily taken me 10-15 years to save for house.
Also I notice kids today oddly are borrowing from parents less for downpayment. Why they piss parents off. For instance neice is getting married to a guy from out of state who has those black earrings and student loans , plans on staying out of state and is thinking of switching to his religion whatever that is some kooky christian thing. She knows better than to come asking for a nickle for the downpayment. So they are on their own.
Meanwhile as recent as 1999. A white beautiful italian catholic 27 year old daughter from Queens whose Dad is a cop, somehow lands a white catholic good looking trader at Morgan Stanley or Goldman with an MBA from who grew up in Garden City or Manhasset, Dad is taking a home equity loan to pay for a big wedding and help couple out. He knows his daughter is taken care of for good, it puts his family several rungs up in society, when his daughter has kids she wont have to work and a quick ten minute drive they can be at her five bedroom colonial for amazing holiday dinners.
Trouble is today I see girls as well as guys enter into marriages of different races, different religions, marrying broke people, lazy people, slackards and this is after milking Dad dry for a useless degree, then milking Dad dry why they find their way up to the age of 32 when they now marry.
The well is dry. I tell my daughters marry rich, educated, nice with a good family and no prenup a guy who supports his wife and you can have the wedding of your dreams and I am paying whole thing. Marry college drop out with earrings, 100K in student loans starbucks guy and if you are lucky I will swing for value meals at the reception at McDonalds.
I actually know a 57 year old guy who is still sponging off his 90 year old mother. Really!
Bill Maher hasn’t yet realized that Bojangles is an idiot, too.
jj, wondering what marriage etiquette will look like when society devolves into roving armed gangs that loot abandoned strip malls and trap small animals for food.
I forsee a comeback in shotgun weddings.
The most disappointing part of armageddon is that Tina Turner will probably be too old to rule Bartertown.
18) “a guy who supports his wife”. Me thinks those days are gone. It’s both husband and wife supporting the family. There aren’t many young men in their 20’s who want to be told they have to “support their wife” anymore. At the very least, they expect an effort on the wife’s part.
Everyone in the family supports the service of unpayable debt.
Folks who are greedy bastards who want top dollar for their beach houses really got killed in Sandy. Look at this listing. Guy completely remodeled it in 2005, was sold as is in Feb 2013. House has 80 feet bulkhead on a canal. So was a nice house. Heck at 420K. Almost worth it to knock house down, keep garage and deck and park my boats there and go to beach.
Could have sold this baby for 779K back when he first listed it in a few weeks. Judging from home resales. Oh Well.
02/21/2013 Sold $420,000 -6.5% $116 Public Record
01/15/2013 Listing removed $449,000 — $124 Petrey Real Estate
12/21/2012 Listed for sale $449,000 -48.7% $124 Petrey Real Estate
03/20/2011 Listing removed $875,000 — $243 Petrey Real Estate
10/07/2010 Listed for sale $875,000 -2.7% $243 Petrey Real Estate
09/24/2010 Listing removed $899,000 — $249 Dominion Enterprises
09/09/2010 Listed for sale $899,000 2.7% $249 Dominion Enterprises
09/07/2010 Listing removed $875,000 6.7% $243 Petrey East Realty
09/01/2010 Sold $820,000 -8.8% $227 Public Record
06/10/2010 Listing removed $899,000 2.7% $249 Dominion Enterprises
06/10/2010 Listed for sale $875,000 -2.7% $243 Petrey East Realty
05/16/2010 Listed for sale $899,000 2.7% $249 Dominion Enterprises
05/16/2010 Listing removed $875,000 -2.7% $243 Petrey East Realty
03/16/2010 Listing removed $899,000 2.7% $249 Dominion Enterprises
03/16/2010 Listed for sale $875,000 -2.7% $243 Petrey East Realty
12/22/2009 Listed for sale $899,000 — $249 Dominion Enterprises
10/16/2009 Listing removed $899,000 — $249 Prudential Real Estate
08/16/2009 Price change $899,000 -2.2% $249 Prudential Real Estate
06/02/2009 Listed for sale $919,000 — $255 Prudential Real Estate
re# 17 Grim – Eagle Vale partners might have hit one out of the park and Chelsea has a few part time jobs pulling down what a 1/2 mil?
That is the problem. Every guy should shoot to have a stay at home wife, his own house and a few kids. Just like every guy should shoot for SVP when they are in their mid twenties to early 30s.
Problem is I am fine with folks who try to do it and cant. The day a man gets engaged he has 5-10 years to double his salary in case his wife cant continue working after kids.
Trouble is bosses in their 40s/50s hear a guy has a wife with some bucks, she plans on continuing working, they have a nanny, cant work late all the time, cant travel all the time etc. It kinda holds him back. My cousin wont take a job in Manhattan cause his wife works and he has to be within 20 minutes of his kids school in case he has to get there quickly, pick them up or drop them off. Talking to him about jobs the other day and he loosely let go what he makes. I have worked with a few dual SVP/Officer type couples and they pull it off, it can be done. But like the Obamas sometimes one career is taken off the other has to step back.
Also what is up with kids not going to grad school anymore? When I worked at a company in 1989 that paid for the MBA, over 90% of folks under 32 who did not have a graduate degree was getting an MBA. Today I work at a company that pays for an MBA and I have talked to other companies that pay for MBAs and surprisingly, the majority of kids dont go anymore. Yet they march into your office one day when they are 33 newly married, kid on the way and want a promotion. Same with certifications, serving on outside boards, reading industry and trade publications. They just come to work and come home. I am totally cool with that as 90% of folks have to be cube dwellers as only 1 in 10 can be a big boss. But really they accept their faith in life so early. It has come down to wife and husband are both goof offs so they both work to equal one real salary.
HouseWhineWine says:
June 19, 2013 at 9:22 am
18) “a guy who supports his wife”. Me thinks those days are gone. It’s both husband and wife supporting the family. There aren’t many young men in their 20′s who want to be told they have to “support their wife” anymore. At the very least, they expect an effort on the wife’s part.
he must have. but w is really something else. painting cats…really? painting cats
Scrapple n’Ricin says:
June 19, 2013 at 9:12 am
Bill Maher hasn’t yet realized that Bojangles is an idiot, too.
[22] grim,
Ain’t you payin attention? According to Fabius, only the communes survive.
He’ll need Kevin Costner more than he’ll need Tina Turner.
grim says:
June 19, 2013 at 9:00 am
When did we all get so poor?
@SenSanders: Poverty in America is at an almost 50 year high with 46 million people living in poverty. http://t.co/WMDKqumlPu #Jobs
“16 – Right now, the city of Detroit is facing $20 billion in debt and unfunded liabilities. That breaks down to more than $25,000 per resident.”
And I thought Montklair was bad at $7,000 per resident. I suppose Montklair really is a utopia, when compared with Detroit.
How are all of those post Newtown gun control reforms going?
Baa Baa.
[4] grim,
Lynn is the biggest waste of waterfront property in New England. Growing up in Mass, we had a saying we learned as kids: “Lynn, Lynn, the city of sin. You don’t come out the way you went in.”
It’s a shiitehole that only got semi desirable during the bubble. Now the banks can surreptitiously redline it, courtesy of a city that handed them the Sharpie. Just throw on extra documentation requirements, extra inspections and appraisals, and extra fees to pay for them, because, hey, the requirements are different here you know.
[10] moose,
Really, it’s simpler than that: anon thinks you are a hypocrite if you make an insurance claim.
No one likes to pay for it. I don’t and I wish I didn’t have to. But ask any liberal and they will tell you that Social Security and Medicare are not taxes, they are insurance programs. And insurance programs exist so that if you have a payable event, you can
make a claim and get reimbursement. In the case of Social Security and Medicare, it goes further in so far as these are forced exactions. In that sense, they mimic taxes.
So the liberal view is that Social Security and Medicare are not a tax, but if you try to claim benefits, it is a tax because you have no inherent right to it. This, as we know, is false because there is a right to benefits under Social Security or Medicare if you qualify.
Further, it is clear that anon is using rules for radicals, and resorting to name-calling in
place of rational argument. After all, he does not have to convince you or me, he merely
needs to convince a majority of morons. And given the success of our union dominated
education system, there’s no shortage of that.
#31..per my post yesterday…Detroit only plans to pay 10 cents on the dollar…Thursday they outline the cuts to current retiree pensions…
Collecting taxes to pay for the common good is a good thing. Especially when huge economies of scale can be gained. Plus, other gains should be attainable with the removal of the middle man and his profit motive which in theory, leaves less money to provide for the service. Unfortunately, the utter inability of our government to act in an accountable nor sensible fashion somehow makes it possible for the private sector to offer services for the common good cheaper and more efficiently than the government can. It really is quite unbelievably pathetic. Yet the sheeple like to make it a partisan issue. I’m not sure which is more pathetic? The fact the government can’t function or that the sheeple actually support the non-functioning government?
Baa baa.
Wow anon quoting Maher and Bernie Sanders. No Lenin or Mao quotes this morning? that Bernie’s way of saying it is the corporations fault. Let me ask you a simple question, with an unsure regulatory future thanks to O-care, highest corporate taxes in the world, sand stealth inflation in consumables to make products, if you were a company would you be looking to add employees?
My favorite is I had estimated taxes due and a stock grant vesting around time I got $31,900 from FEMA. So they paid me $31,900 and a week later I paid them $42,000. Thanks Uncle Sam.
Libtard in the City says:
June 19, 2013 at 10:44 am
Collecting taxes to pay for the common good is a good thing. Especially when huge economies of scale can be gained. Plus, other gains should be attainable with the removal of the middle man and his profit motive which in theory, leaves less money to provide for the service
Lib [36];
With no profit motive, why would government being in charge bother to make anything better or more efficient? Q.E.D.
Moose,
Because humans, by nature, have a tendency to want to help others. Look at the funds raised after 911 as one example. And look where they came from.
The problem is that the forces of greed overcome the forces of good every time.
Not in the case of Sandy, not one nickle went to homeowners of money raised by charities.
9/11 was a great fund, folks got tax free cash and big sums.
Libtard in the City says:
June 19, 2013 at 11:14 am
Moose,
Because humans, by nature, have a tendency to want to help others. Look at the funds raised after 911 as one example. And look where they came from.
The problem is that the forces of greed overcome the forces of good every time.
Won’t be long now until fog a mirror is back.
I/O loans are back and 97% of sales in SF area were over the asking price last month.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/real-estate-mania-interest-only-loans-california-home-prices/
Juice, I did some snooping yesterday deciphering what I could about people buying where I’m looking. A lot of recent purchases seemed to be couples, mid to late 30’s minimum, decent DPs (10-20%), and a lot seem to be coming from Hoboken (lol).
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/the_million_parking_space_AjkgazGpILpNDaRLPm1iyK
parking spot in NYC for sale for one million
juice if the morons re-inflate the bubble and it goes stupid again. I’m selling and bolting for less taxed pastures. No way would I be lucky enough for that to happen, but crap if doesn’t look like history may rhyme.
Won’t be long now until fog a mirror is back.
The more interest rates rise, the lower lending standards will get. Higher rates? Loose loans.
The refinancing boom was a GIFT to the lenders, when purchases fell off a cliff as the bubble collapsed, lenders were able to shift staff from purchase into refinance and build that pipeline. As the refi pipeline gets decimated, lenders will have no choice but to shift back to purchase and cut lending standards to maintain profit levels. Otherwise, they need to fire huge segments of their organization and explain to shareholders why their top line is in the shitter.
They will not. So short of a huge organic increase in purchase mortgages, standards will fall such that they can create a pipeline where there hadn’t been one.
So in summary Grim the sewer pipe always looks the same?
I am starting to think anon is Pat…..
Situation in Detroit is a more commentary on deindustrialization’s impact on a regional economy than prognostication about the long term state of the American economy.
Re: Juice [42];
Cue the Tan Man: “Mortimer, we’re back!”
(35) condo-
Note to self: boost long position in Friskies.
“#31..per my post yesterday…Detroit only plans to pay 10 cents on the dollar…Thursday they outline the cuts to current retiree pensions…”
I say pay them 101 cents on the dollar if they agree to smoke at least a pack a day, drink at lest a sixpack every day and commit to ten fast food meals a week. We just need to kill them off quicker
Scrapple n’Ricin says:
June 19, 2013 at 12:09 pm
(35) condo-
Note to self: boost long position in Friskies.
“#31..per my post yesterday…Detroit only plans to pay 10 cents on the dollar…Thursday they outline the cuts to current retiree pensions…”
To clot: the assassinations have commenced…..prepare
Award-winning journalist Michael Hastings, who penned article that ended Gen. Stanley McChrystal’s career, dies in crash
LOS ANGELES — Award-winning journalist and war correspondent Michael Hastings, whose unflinching reporting ended the career of a top American army general, died early Tuesday in a car accident in Los Angeles, his employer and family said.
Hastings, who was 33, was described by many of his colleagues as an unfailingly bright and hard-charging reporter who wrote stories that mattered. Most recently, he wrote about politics for the news website BuzzFeed, where the top editor said colleagues were devastated by the loss.
jj, don’t worry. Somehow or another, Bojangles and all his military lackeys will find a way to get us into Syria and get the kill rate up on young, healthy and promising Amerikans.
Of course, you get the bang-on effect of a nice stim for the perpetual war crowd.
Good times.
When the gravy train stops for the fat, entitled, slovenly public union proletariat is when the domestic ultra-violence will get going.
You are thinking inside the box. Next war lets send everyone 62 years or older. Clean out all the medicare and SS issues quickly, we be good for next 50 years.
Scrapple n’Ricin says:
June 19, 2013 at 12:14 pm
jj, don’t worry. Somehow or another, Bojangles and all his military lackeys will find a way to get us into Syria and get the kill rate up on young, healthy and promising Amerikans.
Of course, you get the bang-on effect of a nice stim for the perpetual war crowd.
Good times.
chi (53)-
My first thought when I read that was CIA hit.
JJ, at my old job you just signed up, and as long as you didn’t major in something outrageous and you followed the rules, they always paid your tuition. The new job, they told me it was a benefit of working here but there’s an approval process and you can be denied reimbursement for any number of reasons so it is much harder. Your boss might not have it in his budget that year so you just get screwed. Also, you usually only get $5,250 which is nothing these days if you’re going for an MBA. Tuition rates far exceed that. I’m only going to take as many courses as the $5,250 will pay for so it’s goint to take forever but fcuk it, I can’t leave it on the table I’m going for the MBA.
http://www.finaid.org/otheraid/employertuitionassistance.phtml
Also what is up with kids not going to grad school anymore? When I worked at a company in 1989 that paid for the MBA, over 90% of folks under 32 who did not have a graduate degree was getting an MBA. Today I work at a company that pays for an MBA and I have talked to other companies that pay for MBAs and surprisingly, the majority of kids dont go anymore. Yet they march into your office one day when they are 33 newly married, kid on the way and want a promotion. Same with certifications, serving on outside boards, reading industry and trade publications. They just come to work and come home. I am totally cool with that as 90% of folks have to be cube dwellers as only 1 in 10 can be a big boss. But really they accept their faith in life so early. It has come down to wife and husband are both goof offs so they both work to equal one real salary.
It would be stupid to do that. They need more working age citizens/taxpayers. They should send the 55+ people into combat.
54.Scrapple n’Ricin says:
June 19, 2013 at 12:14 pm
jj, don’t worry. Somehow or another, Bojangles and all his military lackeys will find a way to get us into Syria and get the kill rate up on young, healthy and promising Amerikans.
Of course, you get the bang-on effect of a nice stim for the perpetual war crowd.
Good times.
56 – Yeah sorry I didn’t read your comment and echoed that….
Grim [46];
I can’t disagree. It’s not as if the C-suite is lending their own money, or even their shareholders’ money. It’s all B(ernak)-notes. Why not open up the spigot? Besides, that’s what the government has been asking for all along, no? For businesses to stop sitting on their cash? The only socially acceptable way to go broke is the same way that everyone else is.
Scrapple [57];
What about Vince Flynn?
“Flynn has authored 15 novels centered around the character of Mitch Rapp, an undercover CIA agent.”
http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2013/06/19/mn-author-vince-flynn-dies-at-47/
Santelli goes bonkers on CNBC – http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-19/rick-santelli-rages-what-bernanke-so-afraid
On CNBC and all the channels that cover business, we have person after person after person, buy side, sell side, upside, downside:
How is the economy? Economy is great.
What about stocks? You got to buy them.
What if they break? You have to buy the dips.
What’s wrong with the economy? I don’t hear these people saying anything is wrong with the economy.
That is cheap $5,250 for Grad School. Usually that is the undergraduate limit and Grad limit is like 10K.
Shop around and find school that will take as much as possible from undergraduate so you need least Credits to graduate. Some will even let you bring your transcript in if you insist and tell you before you apply.
Find out how calender year $5,250 works. Girl I paid for Grad school when I was paying 10K a year did it in fall to start, and spring to graduate. So she did 10K, 10K, 10k, 10k, 10k. For instance start Fall 2009 and graduate Spring 2013. So she got 50K. Her school let her transfer six credits which she took at a cheap local college out of pocket in the years she did not have that much cash from work.
NJ is tough to do it as you dont have Baruch which is a pretty good MBA at a very low CUNY price
Brian says:
June 19, 2013 at 12:21 pm
JJ, at my old job you just signed up, and as long as you didn’t major in something outrageous and you followed the rules, they always paid your tuition. The new job, they told me it was a benefit of working here but there’s an approval process and you can be denied reimbursement for any number of reasons so it is much harder. Your boss might not have it in his budget that year so you just get screwed. Also, you usually only get $5,250 which is nothing these days if you’re going for an MBA. Tuition rates far exceed that. I’m only going to take as many courses as the $5,250 will pay for so it’s goint to take forever but fcuk it, I can’t leave it on the table I’m going for the MBA.
http://www.redfin.com/NY/Great-Neck/29-Jayson-Ave-11021/home/20579654
kitchen of the week. OMG, and they sold the place for almost 600K, guess the 40×100 plot and 1960s chic was the kicker
Bears – I told everyone in Hoboken that would listen about wonderful Monmouth County before I moved. I guess I started a stampede as everyone wants to live like me now. Screw Bergen County, screw Westchester and screw those inbred mutants on Long Island. Jersey Strong down the shore is where it is at these days.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vQpW9XRiyM
I have the same kitchen in Aqua blue but smaller. Kitchen cabinets look the same and everything. We ripped out the wallpaper and changed out the linoleum floor. I’m hoping to get another 50 years out of it.
66.JJ says:
June 19, 2013 at 1:10 pm
http://www.redfin.com/NY/Great-Neck/29-Jayson-Ave-11021/home/20579654
kitchen of the week. OMG, and they sold the place for almost 600K, guess the 40×100 plot and 1960s chic was the kicker
kitchen of the week. OMG
You’d lose your mind if you dropped acid in that kitchen.
I saw the Jersey Shore on the Bachelorette this week, they drove by in a helocopter and did like a 20 minute piece on land. I dont usually watch it but wife yelled for me to come in, go to abc on demand or something and just watch that piece.
So I looked up this weeks news from Monmouth county and it appears you have wild coyotes and flooding this week. Oh yea and most towns have no express train to city.
MONMOUTH COUNTY — Health officials are warning residents that coyotes have been spotted in Monmouth County’s central coastal areas.
County Regional Health Commission spokeswoman Sandra VanSant has declined to reveal which municipalities the coyotes reportedly have been seen in. She says they can travel for several miles so it is better if everyone is alerted to their presence.
The Asbury Park Press reports that the commission is warning residents not to feed coyotes, to avoid feeding cats outdoors and to remove bird feeders and night, cleaning up any seeds on the ground immediately. If residents see coyotes during the day that show no fear of humans or are aggressive, they should call police.
Screen Shot 2013-06-18 at 3.05.50 PM.pngNational Weather Service radar showed strong storms moving along the New Jersey shore at 3:05 p.m. – the storms have prompted a Flash Flood Warning in effect until 5:15/National Weather Service/NOAA
NEPTUNE CITY – A line of strong storms moving through the Jersey Shore region prompted a severe thunderstorm warning Tuesday afternoon and raised concerns of another round of flooding.
Juice Box says:
June 19, 2013 at 1:23 pm
Bears – I told everyone in Hoboken that would listen about wonderful Monmouth County before I moved. I guess I started a stampede as everyone wants to live like me now. Screw Bergen County, screw Westchester and screw those inbred mutants on Long Island. Jersey Strong down the shore is where it is at these days.
Brian [58];
The new job, they told me it was a benefit of working here but there’s an approval process and you can be denied reimbursement for any number of reasons so it is much harder.
Interesting position. I wonder if the employees would be as sanguine if management used an ad hoc ‘approval process’ for other ‘benefit[s] of working here’, like payroll.
#65 jj
IRS changed the rules in 2002 and $5,250 is the maximum level of benefit that is not taxed. Above that amount it is prorated and there are rules on job relatedness.
I just stared an online course as I didn’t want to have to trek into NYU or Columbia or into downtown Newark for Rutgers. Also while the networking side is nice, I don’t think its worth the hassle. I really just need the vellum.
Looking at the cost of the online programs they run from $30-50K for a decent recognised program. Wharton EMBA comes in at a Whoppping $176K for a two year program. Now thats a commitment.
I looked at Rutgers and rulled it out at $1100 a credit and I think it was a 45 credits for graduation. In at just under $50K. I went with UMASS Amherst at $750 a credit with a 38 credit requirement coming in at just under $30K.
With a fall start and spring graduation I think I plan on getting the company to pick up $20K of the cost. With books etc I’ll be on about 12K.
JJ – We have two express Ferry boats that leave every half hour with a 50 minute ride up the harbor that stop at World Financial and Pier 11 and then head to midtown. Your train ride is 59 minutes, then the hustle downtown to work with the cattle on the subway from Penn. Who get’s there first?
The 7:30 train pulls into Penn Station at 8:30 about the same time as your LONG BEACH STATION ride on the LIRR.
The bus from the park n ride is 40 minutes to 42nd st.
What more do you need?
I would rather have Coyotes than thugs shooting up the place and crack head grandmothers.
http://liherald.com/longbeach/category/crime/browse.html
Yeah I like the pink bathroom too and the wood paneling in the finished basement too. It’s like a trip through a museum. That puppy is in move-in condition.
I had the honor of being able to go to a greatful dead show at Giants Stadium before Jerry died. I’m not even really a big fan of their music but going to one of their concerts was like a trip directly back into the 1960’s. Dirty hippies in rainbow painted busses and old VW vans and beetles that look like they drove through a time warp directly into the meadowlands that day. There was a guy there that sold me a bag of mushrooms and warned me only to eat a few……I was drunk and stoned so I ate the whole bag. Sh1t the party in the parking lot was better than the concert inside.
69.grim says:
June 19, 2013 at 1:30 pm
kitchen of the week. OMG
You’d lose your mind if you dropped acid in that kitchen.
What I want to know is why Putin didn’t just polonium 210-ize Bob Kraft for his Super Bowl ring……why steal a ring from the living when you can pull it off a corpse?
Scrapple n’Ricin says:
June 19, 2013 at 12:17 pm
chi (53)- My first thought when I read that was CIA hit.
On the way home yesterday I passed 8 horses on 4 different farms, Springsteen’s house, a carnival…..also a drug deal and a hooker on the West Side of Red Bank……gotta stop using the short cut to 520……
Juice Box says:
June 19, 2013 at 1:23 pm
Bears – I told everyone in Hoboken that would listen about wonderful Monmouth County before I moved. I guess I started a stampede as everyone wants to live like me now. Screw Bergen County, screw Westchester and screw those inbred mutants on Long Island. Jersey Strong down the shore is where it is at these days
rates are up stocks are down!!!
juice: Steve and Johnny from this band play acoustic at Basil T’s on many Thursdays and Saturdays……worth grabbing a beer and kicking back for 45 minutes….
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burlap_to_Cashmere
Did Sorcerer Ben tell us what’s in his crystal ball yet?
The Fed will continue open-ended programs to purchase longer-term Treasuries at a rate of $45 billion per month and mortgage-backed securities at a $40 billion per month, the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement released Wednesday following the FOMC’s two-day meeting.
juice…..also this…..
http://www.basilt.com/2013/eat-drink-italy-world-premiere-at-count-basie-theatre/
You forgot they see “diminished downside risk to the economy”. I am not sure of whose economy they are speaking.
The Fed expects growth to pick up in 2014 after slowing a bit in 2013, with the unemployment rate falling to as low as 6.5% by next year instead of 2015 as previously forecast.
Did you look at some of their past expectations and compare them with reality?
ignore for now…..let the Q&A happen and check back at 3:30PM
If we stay below 160 down I will throw my 6/15 interest payment into stock fund.
chicagofinance says:
June 19, 2013 at 2:27 pm
ignore for now…..let the Q&A happen and check back at 3:30PM
JJ [83];
The Fed expects growth to pick up in 2014 after slowing a bit in 2013
Slowing compared to what? I must have slept through the rip roaring recovery of 2012 if 2013 was just ‘a bit’ slower.
2012 was white hot in terms of stocks, bonds and housing and combined with economic lift off Sandy gave to the whole housing industry and home building material manufacturers. First five months of 2013 was white hot.
Anon E. Moose says:
June 19, 2013 at 3:04 pm
JJ [83];
The Fed expects growth to pick up in 2014 after slowing a bit in 2013
Slowing compared to what? I must have slept through the rip roaring recovery of 2012 if 2013 was just ‘a bit’ slower.
10 year yield to the moon
Say hello to 4.25%
Well, based on past actions and past projections how can anyone not presume more mediocre at best economic performance and additional easing by the Fed. I would think that would mean gold/silver likely bounce back from their beatdown. Stocks and bonds probably move sideways as the money’s already been made.
88
Stocks/bonds is not the economy.
Bergen County (and Red Bank) Weeps – Dolce and Gabbana sentenced to jail for tax evasion.
Must be election season with headlines like this…
Booker, Oliver campaign with Buono to support raising the minimum wage
What is the economy to you? Unemployment is down, personal next worth is up and folks have paid down loans.
joyce says:
June 19, 2013 at 3:22 pm
88
Stocks/bonds is not the economy.
Some amazing reports out this afternoon on the efficacy of the HPV vaccine.
JJ [95];
Unemployment is down, personal next worth is up and folks have paid down loans.
The government’s headline measure of unemployment (U3) may be down. U6 remains high; labor force participation is flat since 2008.
Loan balances may be down, due to BK, FK, short sales, etc. – I’m not sure balances have been paid down. Flip side for net worth – if you write off liabilities in BK, your net worth goes from negative with no prospects of being paid to zero. The number may have changed, but the reality hasn’t.
Grim [96];
Anyone know if Michael Douglass was long on the vaccine makers?
98 – Not sure, but I know Bachmann was clearly incorrect on her prediction of widespread retardation as a result of vaccination.
Gardasil is approved for boys too, so future generations will be spared Michael’s shame.
(95)
Less jobs, less production, less income…
Or we could just use the same method from yesterday and disqualify 80-90%+ of the country from the equation… then yeah, all is well.
Moose, morpheus, and especially Grim, this is for you.
This is fcuking hysterical.
http://abovethelaw.com/2013/06/how-to-write-a-great-response-to-a-cease-and-desist-letter/
And read the response in a separate link. I’m still laughing.
[72] just started,
Welcome fellow UMie.
[69] grim
I saw a kitchen that had that beat. In Summit of all places. It literally hurt to look at it. Morticia Addams pulled have run screaming from it. And the worst part was that it was the only room in this falling apart mansion that had been updated in the last 30 years.
Libtard (36)
There are reasons why government must be inefficient and economically suboptimal when venturing beyond its essential functions of protecting individual rights (police, legal system, defense). Once everyone figures that out, it will no longer be a partisan issue.
Here’s a free book from Ludwig von Mises:
“Bureaucracy” Mises’s 1944 book applies his insight concerning economic calculation to delineate the difference between bureaucratic management and profit-and-loss management in the free market. The implications of his argument are far reaching, for it shows that all types of public administration lack the ability to conduct their affairs in an economic rational manner.
http://mises.org/books/bureaucracy.pdf
Beyond that, the Public Choice school of economics, led by James Buchanan, shows that government bodies, beyond being incompetent to make economic decisions, also typically actively promote bad economic decisions that are in their own personal and political interests.
Merck has to be over the f*cking moon with the news. More effective means more uptake and scripts written.
Comrade,
What legal authority is the lawyer referencing for excess property taxes levies? Or is that some joke that went over my head
Joyce [106];
I took it to be an inside joke. Together with the footnote setting up the elaborate means of paying the money, its probably related the the website operator’s political opinions mentioned elsewhere in the letter — criticism of a no-bid crony contract perhaps.
[106] Joyce
I came to pretty much the same conclusion as Moose. And I don’t have time lately to analyze it.
Abe Vigoda > James Gandolfini
RIP Tony Soprano
I should go out for a run.
Was Tony wacked or was it the canolis?
Abe Vigoda lives.
http://variety.com/2013/more/news/james-gandolfini-dead-of-sudden-stroke-at-51-1200499141/
[111]
I think I’ll skip dessert.
I have been off scotch for a while but the moonshine ain’t bad.
F*cking Vigoda will outlive us all
Just had a huge steak and like 5o drinks thank god I never age and am hung like a horse
https://medium.com/editors-picks/adfa0d026a7e
Now George is my kind of Liberal. Love the 1% comment.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDO6HV6xTmI