From CNN/Money:
Home prices jump 12%, new home sales hit a five year high
The housing recovery continues to pick up steam, as home prices jumped in April, and new home sales hit a five year high in May.
But a recent increase in mortgage rates could soon put the brakes on housing.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index was up 12.1% in April, compared to a year ago, in the 20 top real estate markets across the nation. That was the biggest annual jump in prices in seven years. Prices climbed 2.5% from March, posting the biggest one-month rise in the 12-year history of the index.
New homes sold at an annual pace of 476,000 in May, according to a separate government report. That’s the best reading since July 2008, just before the global financial meltdown slashed homebuyers’ access to credit. The pace of sales was up 2.1% from April, and up 29% from a year ago.
…
A drop in foreclosures, coupled with a tight supply of homes for sale and mortgage rates that hit record lows, have fueled the rebound in housing over the last 11 months.But the 30-year mortgage rate has risen to nearly 4%, up from 3.35% at the start of May. While that is still low by historical standards, it’s trimmed about $12,000 off of an average buyer’s purchasing power. Mortgage rates began to climb in May, after April’s sharp jump in home prices was recorded.
“Home value appreciation in some of these areas will have to slow down, or potentially fall, as higher prices are no longer masked by rock-bottom mortgage rates,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist of home price tracker Zillow.
Indeed, the rapid rise in home prices that’s fueling the housing recovery could actually help derail it, as it makes purchases more difficult for potential buyers. Even the National Association of Realtors warned last week that “home price growth is too fast,” and said that the market needs significantly more home building and better access to credit for buyers.
…
Still, higher costs for home buyers shouldn’t derail the recent recovery, according to Joseph LaVorngna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.“Affordability remains near historic highs, despite the recent rise in rates and home prices,” he said. And while banks might be charging higher rates, they are likely to ease lending standards for mortgages due to the stronger prices. That should make it easier for some buyers to qualify for home loans.
I wouldn’t worry about a bubble in the NY Metro though, we’re a loooong way from that…
From Newsday:
New York home prices gain least in record-setting Case-Shiller report
Prices rose from a year earlier in all 20 cities for the fourth straight month. Twelve cities posted double-digit gains. San Francisco, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Atlanta all had price increases over the past year of more than 20 percent, while Detroit and Los Angeles showed gains of nearly that much. Minneapolis posted a 15 percent gain. At 3.4 percent, New York showed the smallest annual price gain. None of the other metro-areas the index tracks posted an annual gain of less than 7.2 percent.
S&P NY Commuter Index
Low Tier (Under $257k) – Up 6.1% year over year
Mid Tier ($257k-$421k) – Up 3.3% year over year
High Tier ($421k and over) – Up 3.1% year over year
This article is HUGELY flawed, completely misunderstanding of the data, or worse, pure rubbish.
From the NYT:
Housing Market Shrugging Off Rise in Mortgage Rates
The Case Shiller indices are 3 month running averages, which means the April numbers are made up of February, March and April.
CLOSINGS not CONTRACTS.
Since on average there is a 2 month delay between contract and closing (the buying decision is made at contract, not at closing), the actual deals were signed in December, January and February.
Interest rates were not an issue in December, January and February.
Any article that points to the Case Shiller numbers as evidence of a current/real-time event does not understand the index.
The best/earliest data point on the impact (or non-impact) of increasing mortgage rates would be the NAR Pending Home Sales (PHS) data for June, which will be released on July 29th. And to understand the impact to closings, we’d likely need to wait two months after that, putting us into the end of September. Nothing moves quickly in housing, despite the desire for real-time news flow.
@BillMoyersHQ: Brazilians have taken to the streets to protest political corruption & economic injustice — why haven’t we? http://t.co/O5fQs04rYT
@ACLU: Straight from Justice Ginsburg’s dissent of #SCOTUS #Voting Rights Act decision: http://t.co/IdOCwq3LhE #VRA #vote #discrimination
Anon [5];
Amid the pre-packaged hyperventilating of the traditional race lobby, it was mere hours before some guilty white liberal called a sitting Supreme Court Justice “Uncle Thomas”. The Harvard-educated lawmaker (D-MN) later claimed not to know the significance.
Aren’t all these protests really just acting, staged by the competing corporate and political agendas, further amplified by the media into more than they really are? Always tight shots, no panning, focus on the action, replay the clip 47 times an hour, even more if they film someone throwing something. In reality, it was half a dozen “protestors”, who waited for the media to show up … and set up … before they did their “protesting”. Even better when you can seed someone into the protest to aggravate the situation, maybe someone with a gun, to fire the first shot.
Besides, half of these “protests” are really just twitter flash mobs who meet up to dance to Thriller in public places. The signs and molotov cocktails are photoshopped in by the news media, same technology they use to put in the lines and graphics at a football game. Really, I’m serious, get out your iPod and play Thriller when the news shows the videos of the protests, it’ll all make sense. It’s not tear gas, those are giant air fresheners. It’s not mace either, remember that stuff from the 90’s? Binaca? That’s what it is, they really take their breath seriously out there. Saw a video last week of a bunch of kids arguing about who had to dress up as a cop for the most recent shoot, turns out the kids hate wearing the cop costumes because they are so hot. News media never shows the after-party at the beach bar.
It’s all a big dance, staged by the Bilderberg gang.
Who says there is no protest or unrest in the USA, I mean, look at these photos from the Texas statehouse…
http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/texas-capitol-8-e1372162013635.jpg
A bunch of militant nazi anti-abortion protestors violently stormed the statehouse in an attempt to take over the government and install their own dictator.
http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/texas-capitol-5-e1372161944199.jpg
They rushed in and took a number of legislators prisoner, I hear one politician was even tortured, and 3 others killed. I think that guy in the corner has got a gun. Viva Fidel!
Grim, yes, good point.
One could say that the same applies to voting. to lawmaking. the US Supreme Court. our Democracy. All staged by competing corporate agendas and further amplified by the media.
7.
“Aren’t all these protests really just acting, staged by the competing corporate and political agendas, further amplified by the media into more than they really are?”
11 – you are nuts
Rising mortgage rates I dont think has much of an effect in New York. We have different concerns than a waitress in vegas with 5% down where she needs a 3.75% mortgage to afford her place.
In NYC we have tons of cash deals, or large downpayments. In a rising stock and bond market very easy to click a button or two and sell at a profit and roll dice in hosing. Now with STOCKS and BONDS both falling. Home prices went up 6% in last few weeks just by fact you have to sell 6% more shares or bonds today to buy a house then you did in May.
Also Buy to Let as they say in England was a result of the zero interest rate environment. We had folks turning to rental properties as an income stream to replace lost interest income. Yesterday during muni bloodbath I saw a few investment grade munis with 5% yields. Guess what lot easy just to buy a 100K muni at 5% to get income then buy a 400K house, put 100K down, take on 300K debt and attempt to get 5% return.
I think something like 1/3 of buyers in the NYC area were cash buyers. Another 1/3 makes big downpayments. Mortgages really only matter a lot to the 1/3
Remember certain places, Manhattan, Tony Bergan and Nassau County neighborhoods and Hamptons one thing matters how is stock market doing and how is Wall Street doing. Back in 1999 rates were shooting through roof, Who cared we were all making fat stacks of cash. A mortgage at 8% big deal. Heck folks in IPOs were making 100% at the opening bell.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymiTMcZLuUA
grim says:
June 26, 2013 at 7:20 am
Always tight shots, no panning, focus on the action, replay the clip 47 times an hour, even more if they film someone throwing something.
Tony Bergan sounds like my a%%hole neighbor……
JJ says:
June 26, 2013 at 8:40 am
Remember certain places, Manhattan, Tony Bergan and Nassau County neighborhoods and Hamptons one thing matters how is stock market doing and how is Wall Street doing.
See that whole “chicken little” muni bond ad in WSJ today saying we seen this same stuff in 2008 when muni bond insurance died and lat 2010 and early 2011 when Whitney did her scare and that muni bond investors should realize sky is not falling and if you are looking for yield now is time to buy and not sell. Nice stuff
chicagofinance says:
June 26, 2013 at 8:46 am
Tony Bergan sounds like my a%%hole neighbor……
Re: yesterday’s insurance discussion…
I’ve heard NJM is great. Unfortunately, they still have the same eligibility requirements, so I don’t qualify.
American Commerce is what I have now. OK pricewise for HO but auto pretty high: Auto – $1,898.00 6mo for 3 cars/2 drivers; Homeowners – $1,006.00/yr for primary 2 family house.
Got a few quotes yesterday: Progressive – more expensive; California Casualty – more expensive; Allstate – cheaper auto but way more expensvie HO. So far, looks like Farmer’s is the winner: Auto – $1,476.20 6mo, HO – 956.36/yr. Next I will request quote for 2fam investment property & umbrella policy.
Lib – did you have to switch your auto policy to the same insurance company to get that price? I requested a quote from Robert Wilkens Insurance Agency but no word yet.
Grim [7];
Always tight shots, no panning, focus on the action, replay the clip 47 times an hour
You lean like this? http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=e8d_1250784862
Props to the network for making the shot so that it was impossible to see that the ‘gun-toting racist’ according to their reader was actually a black man.
Passing Winter
Fire steals the light away
Water takes your breath away
Earth robs you of your voice
Wind can raid you of your sanity
Time is the enemy
Distance is our enemy
Walls closing in
A cool breeze on your face
The frigid morning air
The hot desert air
Catching time in your hands
But you lack a place to store it
The echo of the rain
The silence of the rain
As the seasons melt away
Fading with the days
The black sun rises
The white moon rises
Casting shadows on the ground
Revealing truth in our faces
The ground begins to shake
The hands begin to shake
Fear grips our hearts
Filling us with rage
As fire spurts from mountains
As ice melts from mountains
Leaves burn from trees
Cores still in place
Gravity looses it grip
Our minds loose there grip
As reality floats away
Just a passing memory
Blue fire from the clouds
Ice falls as well
Wind blow snow in circles
As surely as winter passes
I love when liberals let their racism flow on poor Clarence Thomas for being a betrayer of his kind.
I wonder if they know Uncle Tom was a hero who stands up for his beliefs in the book and was formerly considered a praisworthy epitath for blacks. until its current usage.
Pain [20];
Unfortunately, ‘the narrative’ trumps fact, yet again.
https://www.nationalreview.com/nrd/articles/350947/uncles-fruits-and-nuts
I could kind of respect the old left like Christopher Hitchens. He had a respect for reason, logic, and truth, even though he was often wrong.
The new left is a gang of brainless thugs.
BTW, I despise the non-(l)ibertarian right as well.
Anyone buy NLY during sell off. I see it bouncing back.
I was only brave enough to buy one muni bond during sell off. I plan on picking up another one next week as I hope the illuqid holiday week bring some odd lot bargains. hopefully, of a bond I already own to add to position rather to take away the odd lot stigma.
Old folks will be happy when they have to roll over bonds and bond interest next week and finally get some real yield. .
I bought NLY yesterday, after closing my gold short. Seeing what is going on today, maybe I was better off staying on the short. Oh well. Money comes easy
Court is out –
DOMA goes down – basically Feddie gov’t can’t treat marriages differently if the state certifying them doesn’t.
Prop 8 dismissed for lack of standing. The state abdicated after throwing the game at the District Court, so the proponents of the initiative stepped in to appeal. Supremes hold that a private party sponsoring a duly enacted ballot initiative cannot defend the measure where the state declines to. (‘Yeah, Anarchy!’ or ‘You elected the quacks, you’re stuck with them.’)
I’m beginning to think the Roberts Court deserves a thin single-bar facemask and a single-digit number on its back. Just call it the Punter Court.
More at scotusblog.com
Con’t [26];
Where do the petitioners go to get their money back spent doing the California AG’s job for him?
Remove the ‘benefits’ that married people receive and this would be a non-issue.
After exdiv you can always dump it if you want
Carlito says:
June 26, 2013 at 10:24 am
I bought NLY yesterday, after closing my gold short. Seeing what is going on today, maybe I was better off staying on the short. Oh well. Money comes easy
Nothing to see here.
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/06/24/big-law-firm-to-cut-lawyers-and-some-partner-pay/?_r=0
“Mass Layoffs at a Top-Flight Law Firm”
“…Sixty junior lawyers, known at firms as associates, lost their jobs. That amounts to roughly 7 percent of Weil’s associates. Annual compensation will be reduced for roughly 30 of the firm’s 300 partners, in many cases by hundreds of thousands of dollars. And 110 non-lawyers — roughly half of them secretaries — were let go.”
To JJ:
Regarding NLY. I remember reading something about it a few weeks ago ?Barrons? .
The big issue with NLY and the big reason why its stock has gone down, is that the C Suite leadership has restructure itself as a management company as a way to siphon off a larger share of the profits vs. being employee and limited by REIT rules. If I remember correctly the article stated that it expected the C Suite to suck down 3 – 4x in new management fees vs previous compensation and that it would affect dividend pay out.
used to be hardly anyone worked at NLY just a few guys in room. that would suck given low rates higher mgt fees
>>>anon (the good one) says:
June 26, 2013 at 7:59 am
Grim, yes, good point.
One could say that the same applies to voting. to lawmaking. the US Supreme Court. our Democracy. All staged by competing corporate agendas and further amplified by the media.
7.
“Aren’t all these protests really just acting, staged by the competing corporate and political agendas, further amplified by the media into more than they really are?”<<<
This is a bunch of bullspit. When I was with Glenn Beck on his march on Washington, it was a real as a damn coronary. There was no damn staging and amplifying. The liberal press ignored us and Fox told covered us in the only fair and balanced way it could. Stop it with your damn fascist conspiracy theories. This is a free damn country as long as we rein in the stinking liberals.
>> A.West says:
June 26, 2013 at 10:01 am
I could kind of respect the old left like Christopher Hitchens. He had a respect for reason, logic, and truth, even though he was often wrong.
The new left is a gang of brainless thugs.
BTW, I despise the non-(l)ibertarian right as well.<<
And I despise stinking RINO's. You wouldn't know anyone like that would you?
For you to express admiration for any damn liberal makes you SUSPECT. I bet you'd jump at the chance for a photo op with Obama just like our two tons for fun governor. You RINO's make me want to throw the hell up.
For protests to have any meaning, they have to be organized by Scrapple.
A few Greensboro-type events and I guarantee that will get things humming in DC. In which direction, I cannot say, but they will be humming.
Until then, have all the so-called million-body marches you want.
[25] moose,
It is so far from being over, that’s for sure.
Taking out Section 3 is largely a nonissue. But it creates a hive of new legal issues over how to implement federal law. Also, the battle now moves to Section 2, which was implicitly endorsed in this decision. That will be a tougher and messier battle.
As for Cali, you have a limited decision left to stand, and that creates confusion. Doubtless it will be used to attack mini-DOMAs, but to what effect, I cannot say.
The real interesting play in Cali will be if the appellants now file for Writs of Mandamus, which they should have done in the first place.
Now I have to write a client alert about all of this. Not going to be easy.
New Jersey ranks as 48th least free state in the US.
http://freedominthe50states.org/overall/new-jersey
Not coincidentally, Net migration away from NJ over the past 10 years was -5%.
[10] grim,
Pales in comparison
http://www.todaystmj4.com/news/local/117706763.html
Largest outmigration states are New York, California, an Illinois.
Why are we arguing over this when there is more important, potentially devastating news? Hernandez arrested, released by Patriots.
Think we can get Ryan to go after him? Didn’t they sign Burress?
(36)
“Alcohol is not very regulated, although there is a “happy hour” ban.”
What is the article referring to?
That is not true, they just shut down the Dublin Pub a few weeks ago for underage drinking.
I remember partying there after my algebra regents great times. Goes to show you cant get away with breaking the law forever, they said his numerous and many years of underage drinking that went on it was finally enough. Folks parents and grandparents all were tweeting and blogging it was last of a kind. A friend High School college bare hangout.
I tell you back in 1936 when they opened who would think in 2013 that 17 year olds passed out on floor for binge drinking would be a problem
joyce says:
June 26, 2013 at 1:41 pm
(36)
“Alcohol is not very regulated, although there is a “happy hour” ban.”
What is the article referring to?
Does being so stupid take any effort on your part? Is Long Island part of New Jersey all of a sudden? In your rambling, barely english, comment… you don’t even touch upon Happy Hour, which was the crux of my question. Well, being off topic, is nothing new for you.
What else do you remember from your 1936 days?
http://www.dublinpubmorristown.com/home.html
Why is happy hour illegal in NJ?
Dont you have to get back to your restaurant?
New Jersey Regulations for Bartenders/Sellers/Servers:
Happy Hour Laws: Happy hour Laws reference the prohibited practices that result in excessive consumption of alcoholic beverages by consumers. In New Jersey, you may refer to promotions as Happy Hours; however, practices which promote the excessive consumption of alcohol are not permitted. You may NOT: Offer or serve “2 for 1” – two drinks for the price of one. Increase the size of a drink over its usual size. Offer or serve any other multiple drink offer such as “all you can drink for a set price”. Give something of value based on the purchase of an alcoholic beverage drink. Reduce the price of a drink to the point that it is less than the actual cost of the beverage. Engage in practices that unduly promote the consumption of alcoholic beverages.
Are you telling me your story was about the Dublin in Morristown which I know is not shut down?
Didn’t think so
And none of #44 is ever enforced.
JJ – believe it or not we used to drive out to Dublin Pub on Sunday night in the winter, when we were underage and did not want to hit the city. There was usually a two for one sale on Long Island women as well.
Sad to say most rock places are shutting down these days. Even Maxwell’s in Hoboken is closing.
Since I doubt you go to bars as you pick up your men one ashleymadision, I can make the bar wherever I want.
joyce says:
June 26, 2013 at 2:09 pm
Are you telling me your story was about the Dublin in Morristown which I know is not shut down?
Didn’t think so
If only online dating websites were around in 1936, you might have had a date with a real life human female once in a while… rather than just dreaming about it
Amazingly up till getting shut down recently they were actually “proofing” for 18. Yep they did it 18 and over, supposedly you had to be 21 to drink on the “honor system.
I bet 18-21 years olds from all over came. Even more amazing, I read they were ok with fake IDs as long as you have something. Jesus, you would think with a 18 cut off you would at least want them out of HS> Sadly missed.
Are there any good bars left in the tri-state left for High School students to party. I used to hit all the dive bars on Bell Blvd in Queens that did not proof when I as in HS> I was hung over plenty senior year. Sometimes I would go to a rock club on a weeknight. Saw Stephenwolfe once when I was 16 in a rock club on dollar beer night and got home four and Spanish teacher sent me to nurse for a nap as I looked white as a ghost.
Juice Box says:
June 26, 2013 at 2:13 pm
JJ – believe it or not we used to drive out to Dublin Pub on Sunday night in the winter, when we were underage and did not want to hit the city. There was usually a two for one sale on Long Island women as well.
Sad to say most rock places are shutting down these days. Even Maxwell’s in Hoboken is closing.
Statistically, if you are female I most likely slept with you at some point.
joyce says:
June 26, 2013 at 2:18 pm
If only online dating websites were around in 1936, you might have had a date with a real life human female once in a while… rather than just dreaming about it
Since I’ve never been drugged and taken advantage of… I was out of your scope.
One time at Band Camp……………….
joyce says:
June 26, 2013 at 2:22 pm
Since I’ve never been drugged and taken advantage of… I was out of your scope.
[52] joyce,
Nice comeback!
[51] JJ
Ewwww, that means you slept with the same skanks as my friend Matt.
Matt is something that you step on, actually the scariest skank bar none I met in a biker bar, which I used to sometimes hit on my way out as it had super super cheap beers, I think it was front or something. This time I just hooked up but wanted a beer on way home cheap and was not looking for action. Long story short this girl comes on to me big time, point blank I tell her looked I had like 12 beers and I just did a girl two hours ago and have not even showered off yet. She goes I love a challenge and I love the taste of another womens juices in my mouth so I can clean you up first.
Yikes skanky skanky skanky. But what a bj
Comrade Nom Deplume, Bostonian says:
June 26, 2013 at 2:39 pm
[51] JJ
Ewwww, that means you slept with the same skanks as my friend Matt.
Did someone say they need me to organize a protest?
Bit of the old ultra-violence?
It is my day off, so you have to leave me a couple of hours to smoke this PCP I scored.
>> JJ says:
June 26, 2013 at 2:20 pm
Statistically, if you are female I most likely slept with you at some point. <<<
Damn fornicating liberal.
Now that RE is coming back you need to find something new to complain about!!
reinvestor101 says:
June 26, 2013 at 3:14 pm
Nom ?!
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/bruins-fans-watched-loads-porn-losing-stanley-cup-165612749.html
Nom!?
http://tinyurl.com/q4so2hb
Scrap is not like you can go around beating old hipsters to death with sculptured fallaces anymore.
>> JJ says:
June 26, 2013 at 3:32 pm
Now that RE is coming back you need to find something new to complain about!! <<<
You damn liberals have the damn morals of a damn sewer rat. IF YOU EVER TOUCHED MY WIFE, THERE'S GONNA BE HELL TO PAY.
I think there are many people on this forum today who are having a bad day. The male protagonist in the discussion seems to have lost it. Just even responding in this manner is equivalent to lowering oneself to that level.
Some people never grow up.
xolepa – re: “bad day”
Aren’t we all happier than a Camel on Hump Day.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWBhP0EQ1lA
Scrap the only way to start a riot today is to turn off power during the super bowl. Other than that americans are trained abused dogs.
Scrap the only way to start a riot today is to turn off power during the super bowl. Other than that americans are trained abused dogs.
The fun will start when the free gubbmint perks suddenly stop. Give it 2 weeks until the fireworks start. That will not happen while the Chairman in office, he has a printing press to keep the illusion of prosperity going.
Hmmm. That seems to have shut them up. Sorry, can’t do Utube on my device. Big daddy asks to keep bandwidth for business purposes. I abide by that request.
Young Buck: Regardless of what the insurers tell you, I’ve never gotten a competitive quote for both home and auto from the same company. For car, I’ve been with Geico for a while, Liberty Mutual before that. No claims or accidents in my life and no points in the last 15 years. They have not raised my rates at all. For home, I’ve been in and out of 5 or so companies so far. I still haven’t figured the insurers out. I got two completely different prices for the same coverage from the same insurance company through two different brokers. That’s a first for me. It’s like they quote you random rates.
>> All Hype says:
June 26, 2013 at 4:35 pm
Scrap the only way to start a riot today is to turn off power during the super bowl. Other than that americans are trained abused dogs.
The fun will start when the free gubbmint perks suddenly stop. Give it 2 weeks until the fireworks start. That will not happen while the Chairman in office, he has a printing press to keep the illusion of prosperity going.<<<
Let this damn real estate market unwind again where I can't flip, and you will see all hell break lose. I damn near lost my ass back in 2007-2008 and I never want to go through that again. We're damn lucky that the Fed is going what it's doing and making liars out of you damn naysayers and real estate terrorists. Hell, my neighbor just moved to Philly, sold his damn house in under a month and had to bid on a damn house down there. THAT'S THE WAY THE DAMN MARKET IS SUPPOSED TO WORK. Money needs to be a whole lot looser. Bring back those pick a payment mortgages and no doc deals and we can really get this damn party started.
Pretty heavy thunder storm tonight and lights flickering…..accu weather headlines not encouraging..
Severe Storms Threaten 100 Million From Chicago to New York
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/severe-storms-threaten-100-mil/14667635
Right after I wrote my last post power bounced three times.. At least it is back for now.
#20 pain
So when the right criticizes O it is not racism, but when the left criticize Thomas it is.
Mmmkayyy
I have lots of problems with Thomas outside of race. I have a problem with what he said in his confirmation hearing not matching his actions. I have a problem with his stance on oral arguments and the biggest objection is that he seems to support the rights enshrined in the constitution up until the point an individual tries to exercise them.
As for his stance on Affirmative Action, I think a country singer summed him up.
“He’s a walking contradiction, partly truth and partly fiction
Taking every wrong direction on his lonely way back home”
[62] pain,
at least a quarter of that was my friend Matt. In addition to being a huge sports fan, he’s more oversexed than JJ.
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