From the Federal Reserve:
Beige Book – July 17, 2013 – Second District–New York
Economic activity in the Second District has continued to expand moderately since the last report. Manufacturers indicate that input price pressures have abated further, whereas service sector contacts report that they remain fairly widespread; prices of finished goods and services are stable to up slightly. Labor market conditions continue to improve gradually, and businesses have become more willing to negotiate on salary. Retailers report that sales were on the soft side in May and especially in June, whereas new automobile sales are reported to be steady. Tourism activity remains steady at a strong level. Commercial and residential real estate markets have continued to firm throughout the region. Finally, bankers report mixed but generally steady loan demand, no change in credit standards, continued narrowing in loan spreads, and further declines in delinquency rates across all loan categories.
…
Construction and Real EstateResidential real estate markets in the District have strengthened further since the last report. Sales prices for Manhattan apartments (co-ops and condos) were up moderately from a year earlier, while sales volume was up nearly 20 percent, further sharply reducing the inventory of units on the market. Rents on Manhattan apartments continue to rise and are running roughly 5 percent ahead of comparable 2012 levels, however, rents have slipped modestly in Brooklyn. New Jersey’s housing market has shown more modest signs of improvement: prices are rising slowly, reportedly restrained by an ongoing backlog of distressed properties on the market. However, new construction activity–particularly of rental apartment buildings–is running substantially ahead of a year ago. Finally, housing market conditions remain particularly strong in western New York State: very tight inventory levels have pushed prices up, and multiple offers and bidding wars have become commonplace, despite continued tight lending standards.
Commercial real estate markets throughout the New York City metropolitan region also showed further improvement in the second quarter. Long Island’s office vacancy rate slipped below 8 percent for the first time in a number of years, while rates in northern New Jersey, Westchester and Fairfield counties edged down but remain on the high side. Office rents are little changed from mid-2012 in these areas. Manhattan’s office vacancy rate ticked up but remains low as of mid-year, while asking rents are up roughly 5 percent over the past year. Industrial markets have also tightened, particularly in Long Island, where vacancy rates have declined steadily and asking rents are up nearly 8 percent over the past year.
From USA Today:
Housing recovery leaves Millennials behind
The housing crisis is arguably no longer in crisis mode — home prices and housing sales have both been on the rise in the past year, and record-low interest rates have encouraged people to return to the market. But younger buyers have been left out of the recovery more than any other age group, a USA TODAY analysis shows.
Since 2006, 25- to 34-year-olds experienced the largest decline in homeownership rates in the country, according to a USA TODAY analysis of Census Bureau data. The homeownership rate declined 7 percentage points for this age group from 2006 to 2011, going from 46.7% to 39.7%. By comparison, the national homeownership rate for all ages declined 2.7 percentage points, from 67.3% owning a home to 64.6%.
A confluence of financial burdens, combined with a bleak economic climate and plunging home prices that real estate experts say depleted confidence in investing in a house, have kept many young adults from entering the market. Meanwhile, they continue to rent or live with their parents, data show.
Among households headed by 25- to 34-year-olds, renters increased by more than a million from 2006 to 2011, while the number who own declined by nearly 1.4 million, according to USA TODAY’s analysis.
Real estate agents, young buyers, and industry researchers cite depleted confidence, high unemployment, student loan debt, poor credit, low inventory, competition with investors and stricter qualification standards as reasons for the decline in homeownership among those ages 25 to 34.
Paulson talks his book, from CNN/Money:
John Paulson’s advice: Buy a house
John Paulson made billions betting against subprime mortgages. Now, he says buying a house is the best possible investment.
If you already own a home, buy a second one. “You won’t make returns that good by investing in me,” Paulson told the audience at CNBC’s Delivering Alpha conference in Manhattan on Wednesday.
Paulson said that back in 2006, he was aware that housing was at its peak. Now, he thinks it’s still very close to the bottom.
“I think we’re just at the beginning of the recovery. I think it will continue for four to seven years,” he said. “It’s not too late to get involved.”
For the individual investor, locking in a fixed-mortgage rate is also a way to hedge against inflation down the road. He thinks it’s unlikely that an uptick in mortgage rates will cause the housing market to cool.
Paulson’s hedge fund, Paulson & Co., has been betting big on housing for more than a year. He says his fund has likely been the largest purchaser of undeveloped land in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada this year. He expects the price of such land to increase precipitously, since he thinks there’s not enough inventory to meet the coming demand for new homes.
From Bloomberg:
The Housing Market Just Wants to Be Normal Again
Is a topsy-turvy U.S. housing market about to settle down?
After a boom, a bust, and a heady rebound, many loan officers, real estate agents and economists I’ve spoken to recently are anticipating something that’s eluded them for the last decade: a return to a “normal” market.
The new stability comes as a result of opposite, competing pressures. Higher interest rates and higher home prices are cooling off demand, while low inventories are straining supply, heating the market up. The forces cancel each other out, at least in part, which might be a good thing.
The interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage, adjusted for inflation, has risen 1.33 percentage points since May. That rate of increase is “unheard-of,” Jon Shrum, a loan officer in Southern California, told me. That change would raise the monthly payment by 15.2 percent.
The first impact of that rise has been to pop the bubble in mortgage refinancing. Shrum said that interest in refinancing had evaporated almost instantly. “We’ve taken a major hit on that,” Shrum said. Data from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association shows that refinancing applications are down by half since May.
“Unlike home purchases, refinancing can respond swiftly to changes in rates,” said Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia, an online listing site. “It’s a purely financial decision, and for many borrowers, it’s no longer worth it to refinance.”
The impact of higher borrowing costs is less clear for buyers. If buyers anticipate further appreciation, it might not be that much of a discouragement. “If anything, the increase in interest rates will get more people into the market as people will want to beat the rise,” said Mark Pullinger, Southwest regional vice president for Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC.
Another outcome may be to drive buyers who would have otherwise taken out fixed-rate mortgages into adjustable-rate loans. The Washington Post’s Jim Tankersley worries this means “America has learned nothing from the financial crisis,” as payments on adjustable-rate mortgages will jump if rates continue to rise.
My pool last night was 90 degrees.. It felt like I was swimming in a hot tub. In other wonderful homeowner news my electric bill was $460. I reprogrammed my two AC units and set the pool pump to be an hour less and I set the sprinklers to every other day. Next up will be new LED bulbs. http://www.technologyreview.com/view/512346/how-to-choose-an-led-light-bulb/
The Cree Home Depot bulbs are nice for utility fixtures and table lamps and such. I’ve got em in a bunch of places, garage door openers have em, in closets, etc.
I’m a big fan of the Philips PAR/BR bulbs for replacing the high wattage bulbs in the recessed lighting. Love the temp and color rendition, my only complaint is they don’t dim low enough.
My suggestion to anyone looking to go with LED bulbs is: Buy the absolute lowest kelvin (AKA Warmest) bulbs you can find. Do not buy bright white, daylight, cool white, or anything over 3000 degrees. If you want standard screw base bulbs, Philips makes a nice one, although it looks funny with yellow tabs, so you can’t really put it in a spot where you can see the bulb, but it’s 2700 and looks great.
I usually pick up a bulb or two at home depot when I’m there for something else, and when a standard bulb dies I’ll drop in an LED.
Black man from NJ shoots white man in self defense during road rage incident in Maryland.
He is now fighting for his life and facing murder 2 charges.
http://blog.nj.com/njv_paul_mulshine/2013/07/forget_the_trayvon_martin_case.html#incart_river_default
glad you guys brought this up because lightbulb shopping has become absolutely miserable nowadays. not only are there 4,000 choices but the boxes are rarely marked with adequate information. i find that many boxes dont even tell you if the bulb is dimmable or not.
it doesnt help that the boxes are printed in four different languages. including polish?
Dimmable is more difficult that you might think, some dimmers will not support the low wattage loads associated with LED bulbs. So instead of smooth dimming, you get a little bit of dim at the top of the slider, and then the bulbs shut down at half way (or other similar goofiness). The worst I’ve seen were a set of bulbs that dimmed in step, but at a specific dimmer setting, not every bulb was at the same step of brightness, so halfway down, you had a ceiling full of bulbs at different brightnesses. Terrible.
So if you want dimming, not only are you going to be buying the more expensive bulb, you may need to replace your old dimmers with new LED compatible ones, at about 30 bucks pop.
Dimming isn’t at all like with incandescents, and that’s just too bad. As you dim an incandescent bulb, the color temperature falls dramatically. Dimming a normal bulb to 25% will give you a nice warm glow, dimming an LED to 25% gives you dull 3000′ white light. Barry White would not approve. Technically, it would be difficult to simulate this variable color temperature without adding some additional yellow and red LEDs that are activated at lower brightness levels.
Your best bet is to stay with a premium bulb brand (Like Philips, or Cree) and pay the associated premium. It gets you access to information like this:
http://www.lighting.philips.com/pwc_li/us_en/connect/tools_literature/downloads/p-6139.pdf
http://www.cree.com/lighting/landing-page/~/media/Files/Cree/Lighting/Lamps/Bulb/CreeBulbdimmercompatibility.pdf
That you will *NEVER* get from the budget chinese makers. Good luck when you spend $500 on bulbs, and they work like crap with your dimmers.
By the way, Cree is probably one of the top makers, period. Don’t judge their quality by the cheap HD bulb, that’s their first inroads towards mass market consumer (and I think it’s one of the best bulbs on the market for the price, I have about a dozen of them).
But take a look at some of their architectural LED fixtures, probably the best on the market at this point. I’m not talking about bulbs, but specifically designed LED fixtures, housings and “bulbs”.
http://www.cree.com/~/media/Files/Cree/Lighting/Brochures%20and%20Catalogs/SR6LaunchBrochureforweb.pdf
This stuff makes screw in bulbs look like 1900s technology, this is the future of energy efficient lighting. This is the kind of thing that if they can get the price point down on, it will be a game changer, period.
Grim we have daylight LED in our kitchen fixture my wife affectionately referes to them as the UFO lights. They are great we use them in closets basement etc where you need a lot of light but would not want to burn energy if they were left on.
My pool was a sauna last night. I went for swim after work.
Oddly I have one of the only pools in town. Nearly all were ruined in Sandy. Even NY Sports Club in Long Beach was destroyed.
My luck has to do with foresight and laziness. I had a new high quality 54 inch above ground pool I threw cover on for winter but never drained it for winter yet as I was really busy. I was very late doing pool closing and did not get to it yet when sandy hit. Water was around 50 inches around pool. Never made it over top and did not collaspe as I had equilibrium. All my neighbors above ground pools that were already winterized where you lowered the water collasped. All the inground pools the whole expensive heaters and pumps and stuff got destroyed and got filled with sandy sludge.
There was a country club called Middle Bay Country club on Long Island that had an olympic sized swimming pool. The surge cracked the whole inground pool in half.
I did need a new pool pump, patch the cover, But that was it.
It is funny I used to stand on the deck last summer and pool was in shade with leaves and needles falling into tree from neighbors pools who were in sun as they planted trees near my fence.
This year I am in sunshine as those trees got destroyed near my pool so no more leaves or needles and their pools got destroyed. I can watch them bake as I jump in.
Odd part is younger daughter swimming instructor comes to my house now as their pool got destroyed and she is asking us for names and numbers of folks with kids with pools that survived so she can make money.
My pool was 93 degrees last night. Not comfortable.
About those led bulbs, do they work with electronic dimmers? I don’t have any slide style dimmers.
re: #12 – JJ – Sauna? you must be thinking back to your days at Plato’s Retreat…
I almost got asked to leave the vault as I almost violated their no fluid exchange policy. Picky Picky. You can give a girl a pearl necklace but she cant swallow. Who comes up with this. Bernie Goetz and Zimmerman would have never came up with such crazy rules. They would have just shot the bouncer for me.
Juice Box says:
July 18, 2013 at 9:23 am
re: #12 – JJ – Sauna? you must be thinking back to your days at Plato’s Retreat…
The Deplumes are close to owning again but for one hitch. The sellers was a post close possession period in order to sell their furniture. Seriously. We suggested they just push back the close but, no, they dont want to sell anything until after closing.
Further, they are balking at a security deposit, pointing to how well they maintained the place. That’s a nonstarter and we haven’t even addressed insurance, prepayment, etc.
They said they want their lawyer to review our final offer. I think that’s fine because I’d love to talk to him and see him try to convince me with a straight face that I should let his clients hold over with no advance payment and no security deposit.
Either the sellers are trying to job us or they are painfully clueless. In either case, it’s pitiful.
re # 6 – Didn’t our Attorney General just instruct us in the duty of “safe retreat” for self defense?
Nom well you are in Southeastern Pennsyltucky, what did you expect from inbreds with a less than 5th grade education. : )
Good luck to the off duty cop in MD. There were dozens of witnesses, so defense story can be refuted if necessary. And there is no stand your ground in MD.
Nom,
You buying in CF district?
What no Fraud charges?
The suspension of Derrico’s pension is a “first for the agency”
http://www.nj.com/mercer/index.ssf/2013/07/former_hamilton_cop_who_claimed_disability_but_starred_in_reality_tv_show_loses_pension.html#incart_m-rpt-1
[21] bystander,
Yes, Birmingham township.
[18] pain
Older Jewish couple, relocating to Cali. I think it’s a combination of insult and suspicion, and I will give them the benefit of not knowing that their terms are huge red flags to any lawyer with more than five functioning brain cells.
22
Fraud? What’s that? Surely you jest, good sir.
leaving for Palm springs? Oh vey if they were used to Pennsy taxes wait until they get a load of Cali.
[20] nwnj
Refuted or supported. What I’ve read cuts both ways.
First it depends what you are paying for house. If you are getting a deal and they have concessions it is what it is.
Lots of folks stay in house after closing. It is hard to coordinate. When I bought my house guy was moving to an apt. Guy needed money from sale to pay for moving costs, put down deposit and of course he can only move in on the first of the month.
We just left 20K in escrow after closing. His rent was my mortgage payment cost. He paid all utilities and he had a max rental of 60 days and if he was not out in 60 days his rent was increased to $5,000 a month. A huge sum considering my mortgage was $1,600
Guy moved and did not take all his stuff, left his food in fridge, lots of junk everywhere. I was able to charge him a $250 cleaning fee. It took me a few days to throw out his junk. I asked my lawyer if I should also get reimbursed for that.
He said did you keep anything. I was like he left lawn furniture, garden tools, trash cans, hose mixed in that I really needed so I kept that and threw out the rest. Like the food and garbage.Since it cost me nothing to put to curb and lawyer said I got like $1,500 of free stuff his advice is to get the cleaning fee and chalk up your lost time.
Person I bought condo off left tons of junk and dirty. But in the madnesses there was like 5k worth of good stuff mixed in with three weekends of scrubbing and throwing out stuff. It is what it is.
I pay full price I want it hotel clean. Get it cheap it is what it is.
Comrade Nom Deplume, Halfwit dumbass says:
July 18, 2013 at 9:39 am
The Deplumes are close to owning again but for one hitch. The sellers was a post close possession period in order to sell their furniture. Seriously. We suggested they just push back the close but, no, they dont want to sell anything until after closing.
Further, they are balking at a security deposit, pointing to how well they maintained the place. That’s a nonstarter and we haven’t even addressed insurance, prepayment, etc.
They said they want their lawyer to review our final offer. I think that’s fine because I’d love to talk to him and see him try to convince me with a straight face that I should let his clients hold over with no advance payment and no security deposit.
Either the sellers are trying to job us or they are painfully clueless. In either case, it’s pitiful.
Good part of buying from an older Jewish couple is no matter how old the oven is it will be in mint condition. Old Jews are scared to go anywhere near an oven.
Downside is most heat their house with oil heat which costs more. They are scared to have gas in the house.
(22)
Juice,
I’m reading that since he originally went on disability to avoid criminal prosecution, and the prosecution was then dropped… since he is now no longer disabled and not facing charges, he can apply for his regular pension/medical benefits.
The guy never got closer than six feet to him. He never laid a finger on him. Driver never called 9-11, Driver left vehicle. Driver never fired a warning shot. After Driver shot him in leg he shot him two more times
He will most likely get off. But once again sloppy to shoot a guy unarmed three times. I would shoot a guy with a gun three times.
Brian says:
July 18, 2013 at 7:46 am
Black man from NJ shoots white man in self defense during road rage incident in Maryland.
He is now fighting for his life and facing murder 2 charges.
http://blog.nj.com/njv_paul_mulshine/2013/07/forget_the_trayvon_martin_case.html#incart_river_default
Zimmerman stuff seems to happen more often than I thought. I don’t remember even hearing about this one.
Updated 12/15/2009 05:53 PM
Roderick Scott Claims Self-Defense in Teen’s Shooting
http://rochester.ynn.com/content/top_stories/490556/roderick-scott-claims-self-defense-in-teen-s-shooting/
29.JJ says:
July 18, 2013 at 11:42 am
The guy never got closer than six feet to him. He never laid a finger on him. Driver never called 9-11, Driver left vehicle. Driver never fired a warning shot. After Driver shot him in leg he shot him two more times
He will most likely get off. But once again sloppy to shoot a guy unarmed three times. I would shoot a guy with a gun three times.
You are absolutely sure that the meter read didn’t get fcuked up? I hope you checked it when you moved in……JCP&L is more than willing to screw you. Also, they have not come by for a meter read since April….they are purposely taking estimates and overcharging me so they can get cash flow……if I prepay enough, I may end up with no charges until January at this pace…..bastards….
Juice Boxs says:
July 18, 2013 at 6:51 am
My pool last night was 90 degrees.. It felt like I was swimming in a hot tub. In other wonderful homeowner news my electric bill was $460. I reprogrammed my two AC units and set the pool pump to be an hour less and I set the sprinklers to every other day. Next up will be new LED bulbs. http://www.technologyreview.com/view/512346/how-to-choose-an-led-light-bulb/
I must be lucky. I’ve not had a bad experience w/ JCP&L yet. I called twice about tree limbs on lines and they took them down the same day.
I had an estimate once when I moved in, the meter guy could not come due to a Blizzard in February of that year. The estimate was really high, so I called JCP&L, read the meter to the lady on the phone, and they credited me and told me how much I should send (using the ‘actual’ reading). Previous people must have used the electric heat in the dining room all year round and they based the estimate on the previous owners usage during that time period.
Other than Hurricane Sandy, power has only been out here for a few hours before a repair truck comes by and restores it. It helps that there’s a JCP&L building in town I guess.
31.chicagofinance says:
July 18, 2013 at 12:18 pm
You are absolutely sure that the meter read didn’t get fcuked up? I hope you checked it when you moved in……JCP&L is more than willing to screw you. Also, they have not come by for a meter read since April….they are purposely taking estimates and overcharging me so they can get cash flow……if I prepay enough, I may end up with no charges until January at this pace…..bastards….
(31) People around my hood get bills in the 700s this time of year. Example, my next door neighbor irrigates using his well pump, runs 2×3 1/2 ton ac units 24×7. not a big deal to many. My house is super insulated. I have also two zone ac cooling. Left upstairs AC off whole day yesterday. With lower level running (where I work) and attic fans spinning, hottest it got upstairs was 82. My last bill was low 3s. I have inground pool, 3 fridges/freezers, so motors are whirling constantly. So does my electric meter.
I did switch electrical suppliers last year. It is paying off at 8.9 per kwh
Also, they have not come by for a meter read since April….they are purposely taking estimates and overcharging me so they can get cash flow……if I prepay enough, I may end up with no charges until January at this pace…..bastards….
I got a check from JCP&L for something like $500 for overpayment credits, for the 6 or 7 month period between when we purchased the house, did the renovations, and moved in. There were 1 or 2 week periods where most of the power to the house was disconnected. Now, I just go online to submit meter readings periodically.
Haven’t analyzed the JCP&L bill yet thanks.
I am not looking forward to my next electric bill.
Neither am I Brian, then again we keep our house warm 74 degrees
My bad experience with JCP&L stated the day I moved into our house. Move-in day was just three days after the closing, and sitting in Friday afternoon bumper-to-bumper traffic on the Cross Bronx in caravan with the moving truck, I called JCP&L from my car to set up new billing.
After a long and drawn out conversation that required my SS number to set up an account or else go in to something like one office in the state operating on bankers’ hours and leave a $500 deposit, I gave up my SS. I was then informed that the power was turned off to the house because they took the final reading with no new billing account, and since it was Friday afternoon, they probably weren’t going to bother turning it back on until Monday. I’ve got the moving truck en route, prospect of no AC on the other end, and no lights with only about 2 hrs of daylight left to unload.
First time I was ever glad to have internet on my phone. Looked up the local congresscritter, called their local office and explained my problem. Over the course of that afternoon I was called by First Energy’s (JCP&L parent) Gov’t affairs office in DC; and the local JCP&L manager on duty; and a JCP&L critter appeared outside the house after 5PM while we were unloading to verify that power was on. JCP&L’s regional VP for CS followed up on Monday. BTW, the airhead in the billing office at the front end of this whole thing was wrong; they never turned power off to the house.
Congress Critter got a small donation to his reelection fund.
Damn,
Been here too long. This is the second time Moose shared this story with us.
DJIA and S&P party today. 401k balances for anyone over 34 are crazy high. We are at a 13 year high.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Detroit has filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection, according to press reports Thursday. The widely anticipated move comes as the one-time capital of the automobile industry struggles with billions of dollars in debts and a dwindling tax base. Two pension funds filed suit earlier this week to try to halt the move.
In morning I bet Detroit bonds will be a good buy in panic selling
The real question: is Detroit an anomaly or is it the first of many. Undeniably one of the most corrupt and mismanaged cities in the country but certainly not the only one.
Pennies on the dollar for the city pensioners. They don’t have the pull of the UAW.
JJ [42];
Bid 12bp? Too high? Blood on the streets.
Too hot to blog, what is going on here?
Huge news today:
30 year mortgage drops to 4.37% in the PMMS
Philly Fed hits it out of the park, two year high
Jobless claims come in below consensus at an extremely strong 334k
Moodys upgrades the US credit rating to stable from negative
Detroit files for bankruptcy (Who cares… have you seen the place recently?) If cities could be subprime crapshack capes, Detroit would be the poster child.
More big news: my electric bill was less than $70 this month. What is led lighting?
I’m thinking of putting up a small solar array on the roof to offset my EV charging. Maybe something like a 5 or 6 kw system.
Not necessarily because I’m a tree hugger, I just think it’s a fantastic way to send a big FU over to the middle east oil interests. I’d essentially be able to power all of our daily driving via solar.
In the interim, is it bad to enjoy the fact that my car is powered by American coal?
Amazon sells a big variety of LED bulbs, the reviews are handy too, more useful that a HD “helper”.
Yeah just some “hacker”
http://news.yahoo.com/obama-weighs-canceling-moscow-talks-putin-220541915.html
Grim could also be nuclear. Either way the mining of rare earth metals for the batteries did more damage than the burnt oil ever will so don’t worry about being green.
Vigoda > Detroit
This is the first of many muni BKs. Philly and Houston are next. Virtually every large municipality in the US is insolvent when judged by accounting standards rooted in reality.
The decline of Western Civilization accelerates.
The best thing to do with Detroit right now is turn it into an agricultural prison colony.
Do it. If I had the money, I’d do the same thing.
grim says:
July 18, 2013 at 7:11 pm
I’m thinking of putting up a small solar array on the roof to offset my EV charging. Maybe something like a 5 or 6 kw system.
Not necessarily because I’m a tree hugger, I just think it’s a fantastic way to send a big FU over to the middle east oil interests. I’d essentially be able to power all of our daily driving via solar.
In the interim, is it bad to enjoy the fact that my car is powered by American coal?
Is it me or does it seem like the newer air conditioners that use ozone friendly refrigerant not work as well as the old freon units?
Their service life might be shorter (much higher internal pressure with the new refrigerant than with R22). However, they produce the stated amount of cooling. Possibly, the unit is undersized for your house, or the fan is a bad match for the ductwork you’ve got.
Thanks cobbler. I adjusted the dampers…well see if that helps. I took the cover off the furnace too. I saw a you tube video where an hvac tec explained how blower speeds worked and it is definitely set to use the highest speed when on AC (black wire).
I just couldn’t get the temp below 76F today.
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