Strong jobs report not so positive for housing

From CNBC:

Stellar jobs report is downer for housing

Employment is good for housing. No question. But it is just not as simple as that when it comes to today’s unique housing recovery. This recovery needs more construction, more jobs for younger Americans, and more credit. Friday’s October jobs report provided none of that.

Employment among 25- to 34-year-olds, considered the prime age for housing demand, fell from 75 percent in September to 74.6 percent in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is still well below pre-recession levels.

First-time home buyers, usually younger Americans, have been largely left out of this recovery, buying at far lower rates than normal. Not only are they un- or underemployed, they are saddled with student loan debt and lacking the credit to qualify for today’s lowest mortgage rates.

Construction didn’t do so well either. Residential construction jobs increased by 4,800 in October, month-to-month, and are up by 14,000 from three months ago. Still that three-month gain is the smallest increase in 12 months, and residential construction employment remains low by historical standards.

“Even though home prices have rebounded strongly and are now close to ‘normal’ levels, construction still lags. New home starts and construction employment are still way below their pre-bubble norm and face a long, slow climb,” said Jed Kolko, chief economist for Trulia.

The jobs numbers also do not bode well for mortgage rates. A stronger employment picture makes the case for the Federal Reserve to slow its purchases of mortgage-backed bonds. Fear of the so-called “taper” was allayed during the government shutdown and debt crisis deadlock, but quickly reared again after Friday’s strong employment report.

“Bond markets tanked immediately following this morning’s jobs data. Today’s rates will be at least an eighth of a point higher than yesterday, and as much as a quarter of a point for some borrowers,” said Matthew Graham of Mortgage News Daily.

Average quoted rates for those with pristine credit and large down payments will now be 4.375 to 4.5 percent, compared with 4.25 percent Thursday, a substantial one-day move.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

84 Responses to Strong jobs report not so positive for housing

  1. grim says:

    Holy crap on the gas prices, I should have bought a Suburban instead of an EV.

  2. chicagofinance says:

    What is your definition of HC? I filled up for $2.97, but I think the Costco near me is probably down around $2.90-area……most are $3.05-3.10.

  3. Street Justice says:

    Frack baby Frack!

  4. grim says:

    I saw a 2.83 yesterday at the Delta near me in Wayne.

  5. Street Justice says:

    Wayne appears to have the cheapest gas in Jersey right now. Grim wins again.

  6. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    This side of the river, prices are not dropping as fast. Best I’ve seen in my area is 3.11 for regular but that may be down this morning. Fewer unbranded stations bringing that number down.

    Suggest checking your station for accuracy though. I checked an Exxon station on Route 202 in No. Wilmington last week during its discount day and pumped 2.547 gallons into a 2.5 gallon gas can. Yet it settled nearly 3/4 inch below the 2.5 measure line. Assuming the can was accurate, that’s a pretty significant discrepancy.

    On your side of the Delaware, I wouldn’t hold your breath relying on the state to do something.

  7. 1987 Condo says:

    Need Front Door replacement thoughts…..I see all types of prices and types, steel, fiberglass, etc…plus…it doesn’t seem that the framing around my current door would really stop anyone from kicking whatever I put in. Thoughts?

    Thanks for previous help with railings, used SVF as recommended and it worked out!

  8. grim says:

    The new Quick Chek by the college was 2.97, I remember making a left at that light, seeing the sign, saying holy crap and commenting on a 2 handle, than driving back home up Hamburg and seeing the Delta.

  9. grim says:

    Assuming the can was accurate, that’s a pretty significant discrepancy.

    Occam’s Razor, the can isn’t accurate. It’s not a certified measuring device, and would never be due to the fact that it’s flexible depending on the ambient temperature, thus has a variable capacity. Just as poor a measure as your fuel gauge I’d think.

  10. Fast Eddie says:

    The jobs numbers also do not bode well for mortgage rates. A stronger employment picture makes the case for the Federal Reserve to slow its purchases of mortgage-backed bonds.

    Tough entry into the housing market for the younger crowd even at rock bottom rates. Once the Fed pulls back, look out below. A fixed 30 @ 6% will crush prices. Add the employer-based health insurance being tossed out the window due to Oblama care “standards” and anyone making any kind of income is paying not only quadruple for their family but for the leeches and dregs as well. A cold, empty house and a shelf full of ramen noodles will be the new version of unicorn and skittles. Perhaps I should hook a future bagholder now and ride the coattails of the sharks.

  11. grim says:

    Fiberglass on the entry door. Wood is nice, but you need to spend a small fortune to get something good. Last thing you probably want is to spend $5,000 on a door only to have it stick when the temp and humidity increases. Any woodworker will tell you that wood sucks as a material to make a door out of, sure, it’s pretty as heck, but has zero dimensional stability, it grows, it shrinks, it twists, sometimes all at the same time. Quality old wood doors are made from old growth wood, and are more stable, and have less of these problems, so sometimes you are better off keeping an old door and having it refinished than replacing it with a shitty new wood door.

    Steel used to be a good alternative to wood, durable, no problems, and in many cases they had decent energy efficiency (easy to fill the core with foam). Steel entry doors are not any more secure than any other entry door, pretty easy to bust in the glass or sidelight and let yourself in, no need to kick it in. Fiberglass is taking the lead, since good quality woodgrain fiberglass looks very realistic, and has none of the problems*.

    *I’ve heard a couple of folks have issues with Therma-tru fiberglass doors lately, and I wonder if this has to do with the fact that they are selling lower quality lines at HD or Lowes (I don’t know this to be a fact). Seen one that was twisted so bad the weather strip at one edge wasn’t even in contact (the jamb was square and plumb, and another that had the fiberglass start to delaminate.

    Good entry doors are expensive.

  12. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    Grim 2.95 costco here in rockaway. first time it has been less that 50 bucks to fill my truck in a long time.

    Here you on the suburban with the twins, large german shepherd we wish we had gotten the pilot instead of the element.

  13. Street Justice says:

    Pain, I’m not sure if you’re still a Nissan guy but if my wife finally forces me to sell my pickup, I was looking at the new Rogue.

    32Mpg higway on the AWD
    Optional 3rd row 7 passenger seating.
    New styling for 2014

  14. grim says:

    Third row in the Rogue? If so, it is there for marketing purposes, and not because it’s usable. I bet you’ll lose significant (if not all) cargo space to have it. If you really need 3rd row, you’ll probably need to go bigger.

  15. grim says:

    Should have grabbed one of the last full frame Pathfinders while you could.

  16. Street Justice says:

    If it was up to me, I would just keep fixing my truck and put another 100k miles on it. I’m at 190k now and it’s just starting to get broken in.

  17. grim says:

    Nicely done, I’m at 135k on the x3 and feel the same way, could get another 100k. I’m really trying to hit 238k, so I can say I drove from the the Earth to the Moon.

  18. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    Street, donor trans, new oil pan and shoes and 261K miles. Agree with grim rogue with a 3rd row would be for liliputians. would look for a last gen pathfinder. Usable 3rd row gets better mileage than your fronty and gobs of power. Only get anything 2010 or newer huge transmission issue up until that point. some engineer put the trans cooler in the radiator and it would fail, contaminate trans fluid with antifreeze and cause the trans to eat itself.

  19. Libturd in Union says:

    I like this sentence too:

    “This three-bedroom home with three-car garage can be enlarged to take advantage of the huge attic with existing plumbing for heat and a bathroom, realizing its full potential or you could start over and build your dream home.”

    Doesn’t exactly make one go gaga over the current home.

  20. grim says:

    Trulia says that house is more than 6k square feet, why does it need to be larger?

    God that place is ugly.

  21. Street Justice says:

    18 – they have a couple of 2009, 2010 and 2011 Nissan pathfinders at the dealership near me….

    Pain are you saying the 2010 and up should be avoided?

  22. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    holy crap 1.5 mil!

    and this WTF is the realtor smoking

    A vacationer’s hid…eaway. All this is minutes from the heart of prestigious Paramus.

  23. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    2009 and below. the 2011 and 12 are the high water mark for that model. interiors are nice, and they finally refined it were it was a really great truck. If you can find a v8 they are exceptional. think titan engine in a frontier.

  24. Libturd in Union says:

    Hey Gary,

    Your Church of Scientology house is not as bad as you think. They actually lowered their list price, so you could perhaps lowball and maybe land it. It looks impeccably maintained as well. I’m not sure how the other homes in the area are priced, but this one looks pretty fair. And it’s got a built in fish tank!

  25. Fast Eddie says:


    I passed by the 70 Clinton Ave. house a loooong time ago. The lots in that area are no bigger than where I am. It’s a mish mosh neighborhood. That house needs to bulldozed, forget making a bid. 30 year realtor said it best the other day. Most of the sellers are on f.ucking drugs.

  26. grim says:

    That house has been for sale for YEARS.

  27. Libturd in Union says:

    That house has been for sale for YEARS.

    Ha ha. Drop a 350K offer on it and redo the sh1t out of it. Who needs a large lot anyway. Your kids are grown right?

  28. Libturd in Union says:

    Street Justice. The CX-9 has been awesome for us. Not only is the 3rd row usable, but you can still fit 2 stacked hockey bags behind the 3rd row. It gets 21/22 on the highway, which is not 32. But then again, all three rows are usable. It’s got great pick-up too. Not sure how they engineered the engine, but she really has zoom/zoom. The only negative I’ve found is that if you gun it with the wheels turned, she tries to dive nose down making it hard to straighten out the wheels. I read about this in a review before I bought it, and have experienced it twice already.

    I just compared 0-60s and the FWD was 7.6. Not too shabby. The AWD is 8.6 though. I hated AWD on our Xterra. I used it about once per year and the cost for the maintenance on the differentials was insane. Never again. Better off buying grippy all-season tires or even winter tires on a different set of rims. I can’t wait to replace the cheapo tires (Grabbers) that came on the CX-9. What pieces of sh1t.

  29. grim says:

    I wonder if they buried Brass or Plastic St Joseph’s statues in the front lawn, if they buried brass, there might be something to digging them all up and selling them for scrap, there must be hundreds by now.

  30. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [14];

    The car I’ve been looking at is just what you describe — 3rd row or cargo, not both. I’ve sat in the 3rd row, its passable, though not spacious. Not at all like the back seat of most 80’s 2+2 sportscars – there for insurance reasons only because 2-seat sportscars are ‘higher’ risk. As a teenager I sat in the back of my older brother’s Camaro, and I was already too tall for it.

    The either/or back seat will make sense for my situation – 2 adults, 2 kids, and I’d like the ability to carry a 5th, maybe a 6th person, but only occasionally. Back seat can even split. Only drawback is no AWD for my driveway in winter.

  31. Street Justice says:

    AWD and 4WD are not the same. Your Xterra (if it was a pre 2004 model) had the same drive train my truck has and they are rock solid. It’s a very simple and reliable design. I hear you about the oil changes on the transfer case and differentials….which is why I do them on my back in the driveway. Pretty easy actually if you have a breaker bar and a pipe you can slip over it. Ground clearance on the truck is high enough where I don’t even have to jack it up.

    29.Libturd in Union says:
    November 11, 2013 at 10:57 am

    I just compared 0-60s and the FWD was 7.6. Not too shabby. The AWD is 8.6 though. I hated AWD on our Xterra. I used it about once per year and the cost for the maintenance on the differentials was insane. Never again. Better off buying grippy all-season tires or even winter tires on a different set of rims. I can’t wait to replace the cheapo tires (Grabbers) that came on the CX-9. What pieces of sh1t.

  32. Libturd in Union says:

    Street…OK. I stopped doing most of my own auto maintenance about 10 years ago. With the Firestone credit card and the coupons I get, outside of the differentials, it’s just too cheap to let them do it and keep my hands clean. Obviously, batteries, bulbs, air filters, etc., I still do. But anything that requires me to lay on the floor is out of the question.

  33. Libturd in Union says:

    Xterra was 2004 BTW. In other news, the Civic Hatchback keeps on rolling. The Fit EV should arrive over the next two months.

  34. Street Justice says:

    I’m not sure I’ll keep it up much longer either Libturd. Frankly I’d much rather be out in the garage working on the truck…wifey would probably put me to work vacuming or dishes or whatever if I wasn’t doing that. At least in the garage I have a mini fridge w/ cold beer and I ran cable out there so I can watch a game on TV while I’m working.

  35. Libturd in Union says:

    You are better than me. My garage only has a radio.

  36. Street Justice says:

    FWIW, AWD is probably the better and more practical choice for 90% of the driving you’ll do in NJ.

  37. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    Mine has diapers and strollers. I have been evicted

  38. chicagofinance says:

    Polish Geek Alert……..BEEP BEEP BEEP

  39. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [35] street,

    I have a standalone workshop adjacent to the driveway. Seller had it set up as a kickass woodshop. It has air but the seller took the heating unit. If I replace it, I have a four season hideaway. My wife started calling it the “man cave” before we moved in.

  40. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    check out this house!

    How guady and over the top build by William Levit

  41. Street Justice says:

    What’s so wierd about that JJ? That’s yer standard dual turret tudor with zebraskin rug.

  42. njescapee says:

    where’s the gargoyles?

    JJ the Welfare Queen says:
    November 11, 2013 at 12:57 pm

    check out this house!

    How guady and over the top build by William Levit

  43. njescapee says:

    We have 2 new NJ escapees on my block due to Sandy. one from Pt Pleasant, the other from AC. Wonder how many others moved to the Keys since last year.

  44. Libturd in Union says:

    And a Liverpool FC fan to boot. If I had turrets like that, I would definitely set up some nerf cannons.

  45. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    In today’s dollars wonder how much it would cost to build that?

    Levitt died an old man dead broke he was a huge spender. Made tons of cash and spent twice that amount.

    Street Justice says:
    November 11, 2013 at 1:01 pm

    What’s so wierd about that JJ? That’s yer standard dual turret tudor with zebraskin rug.

  46. stu (19)-

    L. Ron Hubbard put it there.

    “Gary…Why is there a handle on this house?”

  47. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    slide show on that castle is amazng.

    Plot that big in RVC go for slightly over one million. So that house is for sale for only $150K after you back out land value. Crazy. And fact it was built 1930 at height of great depression shows how rich and out of touch levitt was

  48. Stu (46)-

    Typical redneck lowlife Scouser.

  49. woops, filthy anti-Liverpool cheer moderated

  50. If I had the wings of a sparrow
    If I had the arse of a crow
    I’d fly over Anfield tomorrow
    And Sh!t on the B@stards below

  51. Libturd in Union says:


  52. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a Captain Justice says:

    NJRER Readers knew this years ago.

  53. If you’re feeling tired and lonely
    Your heart will skip a beat
    You’ll get your fcuking head kicked in
    If you walk down Gwladys Street
    When you walk into the Albert
    You’ll hear our famous noise
    Fcuk Off you Red and White B@stards
    We’re the Harry Catterick Boys
    We’re the boys from Gwladys Street
    We’re Loyal and we’re True
    And when we see the Liverpool
    We’ll kick fcuk out of you

  54. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a Captain Justice says:

    [52] spine,

    Except that in my version, substitute Emirates for Anfield.

  55. Ragnar says:

    I wonder if I should do my part to save the earth and buy the upcoming BMW i8?
    Starting price $136k.
    Lets make a list of what sort of person is a likely candidate to buy this car. I go first.
    1) Hollywood actor

  56. grim says:

    BMW i3 is the mainstream option

  57. grim says:

    Given that the FIT EV sticker price is $37.5k, the BMW is a better value.

  58. POS cape says:


    That place looks like a Turnpike rest stop.

    “The rear yard borders Saddle River County Park.” Wasn’t it just fairly recently that that would be considered a liability, not an asset? That park flooded like the Mississippi delta in Irene.

  59. Libturd in Union says:

    Yeah, but do they cover collision?

  60. grim says:

    I wouldn’t pay sticker (or anywhere close) for the FIT

  61. Libturd in Union says:

    Nor would anyone. Do you still like yours? The killer is actually the tax due on the lease (luckily, we don’t have to pay it).

  62. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    buy two corvettes

  63. plume (56)-

    Gooners got c@strated yesterday. What a pleasure to watch.

  64. box (66)-

    We should be using wild boars here to fight foreclosure.

  65. chicagofinance says:

    Isn’t this the set from the movie Logan’s Run?

    Spine Snapper says:
    November 11, 2013 at 1:58 pm
    stu (19)- L. Ron Hubbard put it there.
    “Gary…Why is there a handle on this house?”

  66. Ragnar says:

    The i3 will probably cost closer to $50k after optioning it out. Maybe more likely to sell in California where EV buys preferential traffic access. If NJ/NYC gave preferential access to tunnels/bridges to EV’s, they might sell more here too.
    I’ve seen several reviews complain about the i3’s hard plastic interior, and comment on the narrow tires’ lack of grip.
    How many people want to buy a performance EV?

  67. Anon E. Moose says:

    JJ [41];

    Practically in Baldwin… they need the hardened defenses. Nom, Clot, those turrets are eminently practical, right?

  68. Can personal militias be too far behind?

  69. Anon E. Moose says:

    Spine [73];

    Aren’t they already the norm in Argentina? Speaking of thing migrating from Argentina to the US:

    Venezuelan military seizes major retail chain

    Paging Francisco D’Anconia; Please Call Your Office

  70. Anon E. Moose says:

    Redux [74];

    …migrating from >South America<…

  71. Ragnar says:

    Re Venezuela, that country will totally collapse once oil money runs out. It’s collapsing piece by piece already. Even 10 years ago Chavez was seizing cola plants. They better grab their TVs now, fat chance anyone would be ordering replacements now that government sets prices.

    What Venezuela needs is a Ragnar Danneskjold sinking the state’s petroleum tankers and removing that corrupt regime’s last lifeline.

    BTW, while reading that article, I got an ad push telling me about “Miley Cyrus’ shower selfie”. I guess that’s how it will end in the US – people won’t care they got Venezuela’d as long as they get free stuff and celebrity gossip to keep them busy.

  72. moose (74)-

    Would love to see Bojangles pull that move here.

  73. anon (the good one) says:

    @MMFlint: Don’t insult veterans w/ a “thank u for your service” or “I support the troops!” U wanna thank them? Help make sure they have jobs and help.

  74. anon (the good one) says:

    GOP, of course

    @MMFlint: And if you REALLY want to thank veterans, stop voting for Haliburton-funded politicians who send them off to war. Happy Veterans…

  75. Juice Box says:

    Gotta love this doozy of a trial balloon they are floating in Europe right now.

    10% haircut for everyone. Ofcource nobody can really afford it but that does not matter.

  76. Ragnar says:

    That’s basically what the government has been building up to doing to healthcare the past 50 years. We’re close to the culmination.

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