From Bloomberg:
Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Rise Most Since February 2006
Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose by the most since February 2006 in the 12 months through September, showing the housing market sustained progress even as borrowing costs climbed.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values advanced 13.3 percent after increasing 12.8 percent a month earlier, the group said today in New York. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 31 economists called for a 13 percent advance.
Sellers are standing firm on asking prices as buyers compete for a limited number of available properties. Higher home values are helping propel gains in Americans’ net worth, boosting confidence among homeowners and creating momentum for consumer spending.
“Housing demand has clearly improved this year,” said Ryan Wang, an economist at HSBC Securities USA Inc. in New York who projected a 13.2 percent year-over-year increase. “The housing market has benefited from fewer foreclosures over the last year, the share of distressed housing transactions is back to pre-crisis levels, and that has helped to boost home prices in many parts of the country.”
Bloomberg survey estimates ranged from increases of 12.4 percent to 13.5 percent. The S&P/Case-Shiller index is based on a three-month average, which means the September data were influenced by transactions in July and August.
…
All of the 20 cities in the index showed an increase in year-over-year prices, led by gains of 29.1 percent in Las Vegas and 25.7 percent in San Francisco. The smallest gain was in New York, which showed a 4.3 percent advance.
Good Morning New Jersey
S&P CS NY Metro HPI
Low Tier (Under $279989) – Up 5.8% year over year (Up 13.7% from trough)
Mid Tier ($279989 – $455262) – Up 4.8% year over year (Up 9.9% from trough)
High Tier (Over $455262) – Up 4.3% year over year (Up 9.7% from trough)
Overall Market – Up 4.3% year over year (Up 10.2% from trough)
Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose by the most since February 2006 in the 12 months through September, showing the housing market sustained progress even as borrowing costs climbed.
Let the bull market continue. DOW 17000, S&P 2000 sounds good to me.
From the Record:
Single-family home prices rise in Bergen, Passaic
Homes are selling more briskly than a year ago, pushing up single-family prices in Bergen and Passaic counties, the New Jersey Association of Realtors said in a report on the October market.
Single-family homes sold in October for a median $430,000 in Bergen, up 3.6 percent, and a median $310,000 in Passaic, up 8.8 percent.
Prices for condos and town houses, however, dropped in both counties – down 14 percent, to a median $255,000, in Bergen, and down 4 percent, to a median $240,000 in Passaic. That’s even though the number of sales of these units also rose.
For-sale inventory of single-family homes fell to a 5.6-month supply in Bergen and an 8.3-month supply in Passaic, according to the NJAR. When inventories fall below about six months, prices tend to rise.
Randy Douglass of Keller Williams Valley Realty in Woodcliff Lake said that’ still low mortgage rates are continuing to bring buyers into the market.
“The inventory is very low,” he said. “That’s putting pressure on prices on the upside.”
BC and Ocean well represented, from Patch:
19 NJ Towns Where a House Costs $1 Million
From the Star Ledger:
Green shoots in the Garden State: N.J. businesses eye bigger profits, more hiring in 2014: survey
Garden State businesses are feeling more optimistic about their own future and the direction of the state’s economy than they have in years, the New Jersey Business & Industry Association found in its latest survey of economic attitudes.
A larger share of New Jersey companies expect to make more sales, bring in more profit and hire more workers in 2014 than at any time point since the height of the Great Recession, the poll released yesterday found.
But while the momentum is gathering, the results also show the outlook for the state’s economy is still far from a roaring resurgence.
The NJBIA Business Outlook Survey, now in its 55th year, polled nearly 1,200 mostly small business members of the Trenton-based industry group. In addition to finding that 52 percent of respondents expect to be more profitable next year than this year, the survey also found that, for the first time in recent years, a slightly larger share of companies said their profits grew in 2013 compared to those who said their profits shrank.
“This is the first year where there is very modest growth in profits,” said Philip Kirschner, president of NJBIA, in an interview yesterday. “For them, profitability has just started to emerge and it’s going to take some more time to get back to where they were.”
The survey shows a number of promising signs for next year.
Average house price in London is 544,232 pounds apparently. Which is $886k. Their property taxes are much lower though. Looks like they have foreign money coming in too.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-20/london-home-prices-rise-an-unsustainable-10-on-foreign-demand.html
grim:
What’s a nice house outside London or Paris go for these days? $750k-$1m?
“The inventory is very low,” he said. “That’s putting pressure on prices on the upside.”
Why?
Supply and Demand?
Jobless claims down 10k to 316k, 4 week avg down 7.5k to 331,750 – two month low.
Seriously? I hope you don’t manage your own finances.
8.Fast Eddie says:
November 27, 2013 at 8:28 am
“The inventory is very low,” he said. “That’s putting pressure on prices on the upside.”
Why?
Street Justice,
Why do you ask if I manage my own finances? My question is; why is the inventory low?
In a more robust market, the inventory should be increasing? Where are the sellers that were on the fence for 5 years?
OT alert, MSM on the gay waitress scandal
http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/26/us/new-jersey-gay-waitress-tip/index.html?hpt=hp_t3
What struck me was that the comments hitting her for lying were deemed “hateful”.
In other news, Winston Smith tells me that the revised Newspeak Dictionary should be in stores in time for Christmas.
Come on man, you know the answer. It’s the same reasons that inventory has been low for the past two years. Huge shadow inventory and lack of qualified sellers. With all the hoopla, prices are still down 20% from the high. Loads and loads of people who can’t afford to sell.
Celluloid features for the holidays (JJ Edition):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghPZ3KxAYSQ
In a more robust market, the inventory should be increasing?
This is not typically the way it’s played out in the past, at least not in the 1980s and 2000s. During both of those cycles, inventory was lower on the upswing/early phases, and only began rise once pricing began to crest. During the recent cycle, this was pretty obvious, the increase in inventory at the top was a major indicator, to me anyhow, that pricing was going to be put under some significant stress at the top.
Big moves in inventory didn’t happen until 2006 and 2007 – levels sustained into 2008.
2003-2005 were relatively flat.
Inventory was actually *down* in 2002.
For a second there, I thought you were asking why low inventory would result in higher pricing…
12.Fast Eddie says:
November 27, 2013 at 9:08 am
Street Justice,
Why do you ask if I manage my own finances? My question is; why is the inventory low?
Near me inventory is shrinking rapidly in last few months.
We had Sandy Panic selling from about November 2012 to around July 2013, now folks are seeing housing has stabilized, and with rebuilding taking place in 2-3 years without a storm and fact nationally real estate is rising folks have pulled listings.
Prices in the 1Q of 2014 will be up vs prices in 1Q of 2013 but it wont increase listings.
Sometimes a falling market forces folks to list before they lose even more and the opposite happens in a rising market.
nwnj [15],
I know! Believe me, I know. :) There’s a bit of sarcasm in my questioning because we all know people are f.ucked and the discussion still doesn’t come up. It’s like the family secret no one wants to bring up… ever. And we’re led to believe that our area is different because of the wealth factor; yet, the big discussion on Bloomberg radio this morning was focused on when, if ever, salaries will rise again. They’ve been flatlined for over a decade but for the blind and lesser informed they’re being told that conditions are improving.
My child has 4 close friends she hangs with since they were babies. 3 of the 4 of those familes bought houses in the mid to late 2000s and all openly admitted that they paid too much, or should have waited and can’t sell now or they will lose money that they don’t have. They didn’t have to mention it, I already knew.
October Inventory – Essex, Passaic, Morris (GSMLS)
October 2001 – 6678
October 2002 – 6537
October 2003 – 7350
October 2004 – 7526
October 2005 – 8516
October 2006 – 11878
October 2007 – 12221
October 2008 – 11389
October 2009 – 11038
October 2010 – 11928
October 2011 – 11658
October 2012 – 10088
October 2013 – 8480
Technically, inventory is still high relative to the early stages of the last bubble. If we look at 2001-2003 as “Normal Market” – Inventory is not low at all, if we adjust for number of households and new construction/units, potentially inventory is spot on. Inventory is only “low” if you are comparing it to the blow-off top of the bubble, when everybody was selling.
So why was inventory low in 2001-2003? Perhaps that can provide more insight then speculating that simply “everybody is fucked”.
Apologies if posted
http://www.movoto.com/blog/top-ten/best-cities-in-new-jersey/
The Brig comes at No. 3. It I can’t say I really agree with much on this list
Wayne at #6!
(Movoto reports are pretty much always just garbage to be ignored. These are all data driven analysis and these guys probably never even set foot in NJ.)
22,23
Yeah, that list is crap. Just read the rest of that article with their criteria… laughable.
Not everybody is fvcked but NJ is near the top in both underwater mortgages and shadow inventory, so plenty are are. You have to wonder how many of the 8480 fall under one of those two groups(ie are unsellable).
More OT on a slow news day.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/26/opinion/jones-sex-consent-texting/index.html?hpt=hp_bn7
What struck me is the public nature of this advice and the acknowledgement that false accusations occur (for which she will get much grief from the left who maintain that this is like voter fraud and never happens). But it repeats that which I have more or less said and that is to use tech to protect yourself. And I’d take it a bit further with these suggestions:
–Preserve spicy texts and emails
–Have your wingman video you and potential hookup if she appears willing
–“Accidentally” leave the audio recorder on your phone on. Although it is a crime in some states, it’s better to be tried for an unlawful recording than for r@pe.
–if she’s willing, make your own amateur video.
All of the foregoing can be evidence to prevent a prosecution from ever happening. Even an illegal recording that may be excluded in a criminal trial is helpful: the threat of hearing it on CNN should be enough to dissuade a prosecutor or “victim” from pressing charges.
Eddie,
Inventory is low because those who can sell don’t have to. How many houses have you looked at that were built in the 60’s and 70’s that you could have bought for 25k, do nothing to them for 50 years, then ask 600k today.
The facts: S. Security is taking in less money than it is putting out. Medicare is projected to run out of money in 2026. Older sellers can sit on the fence. Their check will cash, yet younger folk are paying into a system that will be depleted long before they would be able to access it. Want cheap homes Eddie? Cut Medicare payments today. Grim will have more houses to sell than he ever imagined. You will get the price you want.
Trying to compare pre and post bubble is impossible. What are all the variable? Full time jobs? Where? Salaries and benefits are exasperated, property taxes have doubled and houses have pulled back but still have not approached the long term trend. A lot of people are f.ucked. How many houses were used like ATM machines? How many houses did we see with $80,000 cars in the garage and the house looked like sh1t? In 2001, the 4/2 in a nice town was in the upper 300s. Now they want 600K.
Joyce #24,
Not only is the criteria ridiculous it looks as though they didn’t even pull their information correctly. They say they took the top 50 most populous towns but missed a whole bunch. Woodbridge, Hamilton, Bloomfield, Middletown, Piscatawy, Jackson, Bridgewater, and a few others are all in the top 50 and their list didn’t include them.
Not everybody is fvcked but NJ is near the top in both underwater mortgages and shadow inventory, so plenty are are.
This has been discussed before, the vast, vast majority of “underwater”, “shadow”, or “foreclosure” inventory are in the absolute least desirable towns and neighborhoods.
Think Paterson, Newark, Irvington, East Orange, Elizabeth, Kearny, Passaic, West New York, Dover, Vernon, Trenton, Ewing, Camden, Bridgeton, Millville, Salem, etc etc etc.
And these towns are not slightly worse, there is a MASSIVE differential between mortgage performance in the most and least desirable towns.
07502 – Paterson – 54% of homes underwater, 32% of them are delinquent.
07522 – Paterson – 42% of homes underwater, 49% of them are delinquent
Compare.
07450 – Ridgewood – 5% of homes under water, 7% of them are delinquent
07090 – Westfield – 6% of homes under water, 4% of them are delinquent
Again, just to make sure we all understand
07114 – Newark – 64% of homes under water, 47% of them are delinquent
07201 – Elizabeth – 61% of homes under water, 38% of them are delinquent
To:
07901 – Summit – 6% of homes under water, 7% of them are delinquent
07976 – Harding – 7% of homes under water, 0% of them are delinquent
Get it?
How is underwater measured? If you’re hanging on paycheck to paycheck, how is that calculated? If you bought in 2005 and you’re asking price is less today, how is that measured? Foreclosures, pre-foreclosures, lis-pendens can be measured, I get that. What metric is there to show near zero net worth?
Grim – the Bill O’Reilly of NJ RE. He is a one man no-spin zone.
Fast,
The answer is clearly to ignore your own thoughts and analysis on the state/ country’s situation. Salaries, taxes, QE bubbles, health care, flood zone remappings, gas, food, inflation – take all the negativity and toss it aside. As Grim stated, history is our comfort and guide. Return to normalcy is around the corner.
Log into ARCGIS Explorer and load the 2011 Household Net Worth dataset compiled as part of the 2010 census (some demographics updated to include 2011 and 2012 data).
Only problem is that the maximum net worth collected is $500,001 (assets minus debt), which means we can’t get a good handle on the true upper bound.
But, you can easily drill down by census tract, which in most cases is significantly more granular than a town by town approach.
So, take a look, but don’t come back screaming bloody murder when the median net worth for the neighborhoods you are looking at are all $500k (which means that it is MUCH higher than $500k).
http://money.cnn.com/2013/11/27/news/companies/american-us-air-merger/index.html?iid=HP_LN
Merger approved, anti-trust be damned.
Eddie,
Most people selling houses in the towns you look at are not living paycheck to paycheck, or you would see reductions in those house prices.
Do not concern yourself with people living paycheck to paycheck as you have no interest in the properties they would own in the areas that they live. It is not your competition.
You are competing against those with money. And there is plenty of money out there, it is just concentrated– primarily in the areas you are looking.
Please pass the Grey Poupon.
Buy a bottle of Grey Poupon and a fifteen year old used Rolls Royce cheaper than a trade up house if you want to look rich
Phoenix says:
November 27, 2013 at 11:49 am
Eddie,
Most people selling houses in the towns you look at are not living paycheck to paycheck, or you would see reductions in those house prices.
Do not concern yourself with people living paycheck to paycheck as you have no interest in the properties they would own in the areas that they live. It is not your competition.
You are competing against those with money. And there is plenty of money out there, it is just concentrated– primarily in the areas you are looking.
Please pass the Grey Poupon.
We’ve been down that road. I see what the so-called individual “net” worth is for these towns. Yet, miraculously, it’s all been achieved by zero salary growth, zero job growth, diminished benefits and an unabated rise in property taxes.
From the Census Bureau:
The Geographic Concentration of High-Income
Households: 2007–2011
Highest concentration of high income households in the United States among large metro areas (as defined by % of households in the top 5% bracket)?
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA – with 19 million households, and 10% of them in the top 5% of income nationally.
This analysis ran through 2011- so it is fully encompassing of the recession and bubble burst.
#37…all my friends and college buds all have household income over $350,000..(I am the “loser” among them!!)..the property tax of $15,000 or $20,000 or even $25,000 doesn’t really “faze” them. My taxes are far lower but I shell our $16,000+ a year for catholic HS.
Eddie,
Money comes from different sources. Zero salary growth? Naaah, only for the less educated. (that don’t live in the areas you are looking). Zero job growth, same thing. Diminished bennies, only for lower workers, CEO’s still collect same bennies, and seniors still have Medicare. Plenty of old money, legacy money, pension and S Security money, investment money, hand down money and last but not least foreign money. Foreigners with cash tend to like the finer places to live also (I mentioned this in Morris County, someone yesterday mentioned Hoboken).
I would not call in Nassau County Long Island 191K a year high income.
After taxes and expenses for a family of five it is poverty. I seen folks after Sandy get checks from Red Cross for lower income folks making 350k.
I would say 750K is average income in a good neighborhood for a head of household in his 50s
Here is a question – Why do you make less?
How did all your friends find the secret of a high income and you did not?
Not causing trouble. But for instance since I did not get great grades or went to a great school, doctor, lawyer, engineer, was out of question. So since we all live near Wall Street pretty much that is where you went like it or not.
I have seen Securities Lending Traders, Bond Traders, Stock Brokers many without college degrees pushing buttons in the 1990s making big six figure salaries. Lot of those jobs phased out, but really someone who graduated HS school in 1978 could have lasted till late 2008 in that job a good 30 year run. And plenty did.
1987 Condo says:
November 27, 2013 at 12:00 pm
#37…all my friends and college buds all have household income over $350,000..(I am the “loser” among them!!)..the property tax of $15,000 or $20,000 or even $25,000 doesn’t really “faze” them. My taxes are far lower but I shell our $16,000+ a year for catholic HS.
Does anyone have any experience with installing satellite dishes on roofs. My tenant wants to install one, but so far I have said no. I think that it will cause future leaks. Am I right to have these fears?
#39…this happens when actuaries marry actuaries!! My wife became a math teacher after the kids so that knocks us out!
#42…see #44…I did not follow “JJ” advice until I was about 40 and moved into Sales.
My wife bailed on corp and became teacher to be with kids. My friends were both smarter and more aggressive than I was in the early years. I am only one of my siblings, or their spouses that does not work for NYC or NYS.
My son is home from college and I just gave him one of your posts from January, 2010 to read and told him that is what he must do!
Eddie,
JJ nailed it..
Everyone has a different definition of poverty, what is rich, middle class, etc.
Some folks would be happy just to have something to eat.
The one equalizer is health and healthcare.
Now that is on the chopping block.
It began with Obamacare vs RomneyVoucherCare.
Heads I win, tales you lose.
Hospitals have some of the most aggressive bill collectors out there.
Your paid off house will become a target for them in the future if you do not have health insurance or REAL MEDICARE. Your 20% off RomneyVoucherCare would be just as worthless as ObamaRipoffCare.
The current seniors are the last ones to get off the train before it crashes, along with those wealthy enough to get on the Acela Express on the other track.
What is the unemployment rate for individuals with Graduate or Professional Degrees in the NY Metro? (who are not coincidentally the highest wage earners)
3-4%
Devastating.
43.
Not if it is done correctly, and some antennas can even be installed on the ground (location permitting).
50/50 chance of a correct install.
http://www.trulia.com/homes/New_York/Long_Beach/sold/1132040-608-E-Bay-Dr-Long-Beach-NY-11561
Best Home Picture EVER!!!!
Zero salary growth? Naaah, only for the less educated. (that don’t live in the areas you are looking). Zero job growth, same thing.
Really? 125,000 jobs created every month and the majority are food handlers and health providers. We’ve been hearing this for years now. That’s job growth? Salary growth? Bloomberg this morning was asking analysts if/when salaries will rise again. And I didn’t realize a 4/2 sh1t split was now considered upper echelon. Hey listen, if you guys insist everything is rosey (pay no attention to the printing and FED buying debt behind the curtain), then I’m just going to use my vastly increasing equity wealth and stomp on the little guy to move up a notch.
I don’t think everyone fully appreciates the bifurcation of class and income that exists in this state.
Brazilification isn’t on the horizon, it is already here, and it defines us.
This dumbell distribution of employment, net worth, income, that exists on a county and state level, makes looking at median/average statistics completely misleading.
Just like you can’t buy a median home in NJ, you can’t get a median income job in NJ.
#45..sorry, JJ Nov 9, 2010 posting, I think 1:37 pm…classic, kept it, using it as a tool of instruction for my kids.
The distance between Franklin Lakes and Paterson is 5 miles.
Huge swaths of Paterson have a net worth of less than $20k, incomes less than $20k, huge unemployment, etc etc. There are streets on which an outsider is almost guaranteed to be shot or beaten.
Franklin Lakes? Almost a full 40% of households have an income of more than 10x of Paterson. Net worth? Wouldn’t be surprised to find census blocks where the net worth is 50-100x Paterson, and probably even more. If you rang a doorbell and asked to borrow some sugar, you’d probably get it.
5 miles (probably less as the bird flies).
Eddie,
You might not like what the gauge on the dashboard is telling you, but it is correct.
Think of a poker game with 10 players and a fixed amount of money.
2 hours ago they all had the same amount of money, and all of their clothes.
Now 5 are naked, 2 down to their underwear, and one has all of the money, clothes, cellphones, jewelry, etc.
He already has a new car, new house, new tv. No need to buy anything. So he hoards all of the money. All the other guys need clothes, car, food. But they cannot afford to buy anything. So no demand as there are no available buyers with money. No work as nothing needs to be made, those who can afford bought already.
Money needs to circulate in order for the system to work. Hoarding it causes failure.
That is where we are headed. Grim is correct. So are you if you are talking about the middle class. The centrifuge will continue to spin and the concentration of wealth will continue until everything around you becomes unrecognizable and foreign to you.
35- well said buddy…..I’m bad at explaining things. I make it more complicated than it is. Your post was simple and right to the point. I have been trying to tell fast eddie this for the past month. He just doesn’t get it. Nj is a tale of two worlds. Poor and wealthy. There are plenty of people that can afford the taxes that he thinks are so high. This is one of the wealthiest places in the world. He can mock it and call it the land of unicorns, but he is just lying to himself about the truth. That Nj is uber wealthy. Nowhere can you go and find town after town of million dollar homes. It is indeed surreal.
When your son is a huge big swing dick in ten years he is taking both of us to Peter Lugers and he is picking up the tab!!!!
BTW James Simons knew what to do with a Math background, he made 2.5 billion in 2008 salary.
He used to be a Math teacher at Stony Brook
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Harris_Simons
1987 Condo says:
November 27, 2013 at 12:23 pm
#45..sorry, JJ Nov 9, 2010 posting, I think 1:37 pm…classic, kept it, using it as a tool of instruction for my kids.
#56…I know my wife thinks she is that smart….I know, she told me….but …..
54- well said again…..been trying to tell people this. Our capitalist economy is no different than the game of monopoly. Eventually all the money gets into the hands of a few, then the economy tanks, a correction is made (through reinvesting and creating jobs aka giving back some of that money so the rest can play the game), and we start the beautiful cycle of growth over and over again.
Phoenix,
Where do the rich people put their hoarded money?
59- In useless things to the economy. Luxury items so to say. Things like 10 million dollar paintings, 10, 000 dollar dresses, 10 million dollar rings, etc etc. Doesn’t do much for the rest of the economy. Great for the luxury branch of the economy.
So it’s not being hoarded, thank you Michael.
JJ,
That is bunk. This is a generational issue. During bubble, Xers, now in their late 30s/40s mostly bought homes from boomers in their 50s/60s. Those people love real estate bc their wealth was generated from it. Wealth in this area is created from real estate, not because they were smarter, more educated, or harder working. My friends/ peers are all college grads and we have MBA/masters. No one is even in 300k level. The ones close are dual income. So, future now rests on people getting married to other high earners. Single income better GTFO
62.
Bingo.
Most rich folk I know just have a few Stock Funds, own muni funds and have two houses.
One guy I spoke with recently just had a handful of index funds. He said to properly invest all the money coming in it would be a full time job and I have to concentrate at my real job.
Real Estate is hard to manage.
Also I remember from the Days I worked at Brown Brothers folks were more interested in Return of Capital rather than Return on Capital.
Plenty of folks just had a mix 60/40
55% being blue chip dividend paying stocks and 40% a mix of investment grade muni, corporate, treasury and MBS bonds and around 5% in cash or short term treasuries for liquidity or buying opportunities.
I pulled one account and the widow had one billion. Exxon, GE, IBM type stocks and all long term bonds that since she had account open for 50 years was impressive. When I looked back in 1996 at the account plenty of 30 year ATT/IBM type bonds/Treasuries/Munis bought between bought from 1977 to 1992 paying 8-18% yields. 400 million in bonds at an average couple of 10% plus 600 million of stock with an average dividend of 5% even with zero appreciation in stocks is a massive income flow.
Paper wealth is generated in real estate. My home goes up 200K in value big deal. Someone hands me a briefcase with 200K big deal.
Trouble is no one talks about money in bank or brokerage account. Someone at the dinner table at Thanksgiving folks can openly say I bought this house for 500K and now it is worth 700K. But I can say big deal I make 5x your income and have 10x the money you have in the bank. I cant do it. So folks hear lots of tales about money made in Real Estate. But little tales of income. We just cant talk about it.
Bystander says:
November 27, 2013 at 1:09 pm
JJ,
That is bunk. This is a generational issue. During bubble, Xers, now in their late 30s/40s mostly bought homes from boomers in their 50s/60s. Those people love real estate bc their wealth was generated from it. Wealth in this area is created from real estate, not because they were smarter, more educated, or harder working. My friends/ peers are all college grads and we have MBA/masters. No one is even in 300k level. The ones close are dual income. So, future now rests on people getting married to other high earners. Single income better GTFO
My point was that a historically high percentage of the inventory number(8480) is distressed so the actual sellable inventory is much lower. Your numbers don’t tell me much to that point.
Now if you tell me thath that for those specific towns the inventory(sans distressed) is high historically, then you might have a point.
grim says:
November 27, 2013 at 11:22 am
Not everybody is fvcked but NJ is near the top in both underwater mortgages and shadow inventory, so plenty are are.
This has been discussed before, the vast, vast majority of “underwater”, “shadow”, or “foreclosure” inventory are in the absolute least desirable towns and neighborhoods.
Think Paterson, Newark, Irvington, East Orange, Elizabeth, Kearny, Passaic, West New York, Dover, Vernon, Trenton, Ewing, Camden, Bridgeton, Millville, Salem, etc etc etc.
And these towns are not slightly worse, there is a MASSIVE differential between mortgage performance in the most and least desirable towns.
07502 – Paterson – 54% of homes underwater, 32% of them are delinquent.
07522 – Paterson – 42% of homes underwater, 49% of them are delinquent
Compare.
07450 – Ridgewood – 5% of homes under water, 7% of them are delinquent
07090 – Westfield – 6% of homes under water, 4% of them are delinquent
Again, just to make sure we all understand
07114 – Newark – 64% of homes under water, 47% of them are delinquent
07201 – Elizabeth – 61% of homes under water, 38% of them are delinquent
To:
07901 – Summit – 6% of homes under water, 7% of them are delinquent
07976 – Harding – 7% of homes under water, 0% of them are delinquent
Get it?
jj, your big swinging dick won’t be of any help when we’re roaming the country in armed packs and sleeping in the open.
Lets see women cook and love big dick. So women will feed me.
Spine Snapper says:
November 27, 2013 at 1:32 pm
jj, your big swinging dick won’t be of any help when we’re roaming the country in armed packs and sleeping in the open.
59. Joyce
The millionaire next door.
Still driving his 25 year old volvo with 300k miles on it. Proud as hell for being cheap as hell. House with shag carpeting and original furnace, windows and A/C since 1965.
On market for 600k, purchased for 30k
Bank account filled with fat stacks, pension from (you name it, every job had one back then).
Medicare picking up 80% of his medical bills, Social Security sending a check every month.
Town giving him a tax break as a senior citizen.
Maybe some valuable paintings or diamond rings.
Busy flashing the AARP card for discounted donuts and movie tickets and never leaving a penny in the tip jar after wiping off the powdered sugar from the free donut.
Could afford to buy a new car, has the money but why bother–this one will knock out the front of a store crushing some poor pedestrian just as well as a new car, only now I have more of an excuse as the “gas pedal stuck” on my old car.
This is all choice as it should be. Not arguing with that.
You don’t want to fix your house even though you can afford to , that’s your choice.
Fixing that house puts money to work, puts people to work, and keeps it circulating.
Instead hoard that money and have Eddie make fun of your houses all day (with very good colorful descriptions I might add). Buying a new car puts people to work.
I’m all for choice. I don’t believe in taking someone’s money away, you want to hoard it go ahead. You will get the economy and society you ask for.
Does not change the fact that money needs to circulate. JJ makes money when it circulates. So does the plumber, architect, car salesman, etc and also your neighbors and friends.
70
Anecdotal stories aside, does he swim daily in his McScrooge pool of $100 bills and gold coins? or is all his non-spent money in various investments and circulating that way?
Money saved/invested is NOT hoarded. Hoarded is under the mattress (which as you said is a choice, as it should be).
I wish the system was different, believe me I do. I was just pointing out the fact that it is not being hoarded.
#51 Grim
“Just like you can’t buy a median home in NJ, you can’t get a median income job in NJ.”
While I agree you can’t buy a median home in northern NJ, I respectfully disagree that you can’t get a median income job. Monster dot com is chock full of median income jobs in the tri-state area (i.e. deadend jobs that pay $60-90K per year). IT, communications, marketing, healthcare, backoffice finance, publishing, etc. A great deal of people will spend their entire careers making lateral moves from one of these jobs to another without moving up any wrungs on the ladder.
So the problem is that people in this situation are forced to choose to either:
1. become a permanent renter (likely the best choice for most people in this situation);
2. live housepoor in a decent town;
3. accept the trade offs that accompany the bifurication in housing supply (moving somewhere where a decent house comes with trade offs involving a sketchy school district, grinding commute, less upwordly mobile neighbors, etc.)
I think there are only a handful of markets where this is the “norm”…NYC and southern Cali being the top two examples. (And I’d add that there are a TON of median income jobs in southern Cali as well.)
As much as I agree with Fast Eddie that it would be nice to have a housing market that perfectly aligned with income distributions, the way it does in say, Cleveland, or Charlotte, it just isn’t the case here. Too much old money, too much new money, too much stealth money, chasing too few options.
Depression era millionaires might be the hoarders. Who can blame them? But I do not appreciate them complaining about the cost of anything, especially those who are miserly towards service workers, gift giving times etc. It’s really crappy to be chintzy to others.
As for the widening income gap in the Garden State I totally buy into that. Grim, you have some really good insight on this. Wages for those who have just decent jobs, and not careers, are going nowhere. Same with the benefits, or lack thereof. I have co-workers who can’t afford health insurance, never go on any kind of vacation, basically live paycheck to paycheck and pray a lot! I feel so incredibly lucky which is what I am thinking about the day before Thanksgiving.
I have co-workers who can’t afford health insurance, never go on any kind of vacation, basically live paycheck to paycheck and pray a lot!
Increasing by the minute. So, where do all the professionals draw their large incomes from when no one is left?
Oh Boy!! I see a gigantic headache giving case of “Jersey Style Cognitive Dissonance”.
Fast Eddie, the one that has a bumper sticker in his car with “Wallace/LeMay for President”. Posted the below statement.
-“We’ve been down that road. I see what the so-called individual “net” worth is for these towns. Yet, miraculously, it’s all been achieved by zero salary growth, zero job growth, diminished benefits and an unabated rise in property taxes.”-
Oh my Eddie, are you realizing that you are not going to be the Forbes neighbor in Bedminster? or that your zip code is not going to 07458.
So your problem is not Bebo in JC, but the fact you are “trying to be a higher station that you are entitled to” as those here who are members of good old WASPY blue bloods would say.
Eddie you must have a big headache from the event of Cognitive Dissonance. Accept reality and listen to the likes of JJ – A hell of a decent guy in my book.
MORRISTOWN N J REF GO BDS SER. 2005
06.50000% 08/01/2019
Comparing a Morristown tax free Muni bond from 2005 to buying a Morristown house in 2005 wow what a difference.
One is 6.5% a year tax free for nine eight years and one is like a 200K loss.
If I went back in time to 2005 and told folks to buy that bond instead of the house I would have been laughed at
nice to have a housing market that perfectly aligned with income distributions, the way it does in say, Cleveland, or Charlotte, it just isn’t the case here
I argue that this is largely myth. The problem is outsiders look at these markets in aggregate, and aren’t looking at the desirable subdivisions in these neighborhoods – they see a nice house and make the assumption, “oh, that must be in a great/desirable neighborhood.” Generally not the case. Probably amplified by the fact that everyone is searching price “low to high” without regard for location.
Right? So living good in Cleveland is cheap?
Yeah, except if you want to live in Hunting Valley or Bratenahl, where EVERYONE with money wants to live, and you better have $750,000-$1m for a place there, a million bucks for a F8cking house in CLEVELAND.
http://www.zillow.com/hunting-valley-oh/
Just like the fact that Eddie won’t live in Wayne, because Wayne don’t rank compared to Woodcliff Lake and Wyckoff, nobody with money in Cleveland wants to live where the $150k houses are.
Eddie would have a field day with these, absolutely no different from what you would find in haughty BC:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/45030-Mather-Ln-Chagrin-Falls-OH-44022/33716653_zpid/ – $750k – hasn’t seen any work in 40 years, original kitchens and baths, midcentury with none of the benefits, ugly, odd, probably smells.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/36085-Shaker-Blvd-Chagrin-Falls-OH-44022/58563869_zpid/ – A million dollars for flower wall paper, I’m sure this one smells like moth balls and urine, I can almost smell it through the monitor. Wait for it, wait for it, it’s a F*cking CAPE COD.
My money circulates too much. Drove daughter to Jet game and gave her a lesson in making money.
1) turned key to start Caddie, guess what I own GM stock made money
2) headed down road crossed bridge,. made money own Port Authority Muni funds
3) got to game, guess what sold my extra pair for over double face made money
4) got a Coke and a Bud, own both stocks made money
5) Jets won which ment I made money as helped my ticket prices
6) Called home on ATT phone I made money as I own that stock.
7) showed daughter NY skyline, Citigroup, JP Morgan, buildings etc said own their bonds and stock too.
8) showed her the trains, own MTA bonds those folks are making us money
Daughter goes Daddy is there anypoint in time you are not making money. I go while you were saying that I was making money. Of course not.
BTW on way home drove by Bronx Zoo and daughter said we should go there again, I go guess what own those muni bonds too, lets do it I could make some more money.
You could drop this one into Saddle River and nobody would have any idea that it was in Cleveland, especially with the $1m price tag.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/37300-Fairmount-Blvd-Chagrin-Falls-OH-44022/33716631_zpid/
Handsome Western Reserve Colonial ???? Is that Cleveland’s equivalent of Tandy and Allen Ranch??
Wayne is an option! The school distance is not! :)
Dual Income is good to a point. When I talk to my peers and folks above me I would say 95% of wife’s dont work or have some little bs job to keep them busy.
Starting two levels below me and down lots of folks spouses work.
Can you imagine the CEO, CFO, Head of Trading, Head of Legal going I would love to stay for meeting but it is my turn to watch the kids, or going my kid has sniffles and have to be picked up at nurses office,
Bystander says:
November 27, 2013 at 1:09 pm
JJ,
That is bunk. This is a generational issue. During bubble, Xers, now in their late 30s/40s mostly bought homes from boomers in their 50s/60s. Those people love real estate bc their wealth was generated from it. Wealth in this area is created from real estate, not because they were smarter, more educated, or harder working. My friends/ peers are all college grads and we have MBA/masters. No one is even in 300k level. The ones close are dual income. So, future now rests on people getting married to other high earners. Single income better GTFO
I know I’m just busting your balls
Gary and I right or wrong on #80
Warning: Everything saved will be lost” – Wii console notification
“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid” — Albert Einstein
“At the end of the day, the king and pawn go back to the same box” — Omar from “The Wire”
The Anti Fast Eddie,
You’re so far off the mark, I might even consider dropping my price 2% for you. Are you hungry? I’ll buy you a burger. Need a jacket for the winter?
“The Department of Health and Human Services said Wednesday that it will delay the launch of the online SHOP Marketplace — which is meant for small businesses — until November 2014. Critics said the move would create more “onerous” paperwork for job creators.
“Business owners across this country are already having health care plans for their employees canceled by this law, and now they’re told they won’t have access to the system the president promised them to find them different coverage,” House Speaker John Boehner said.
The announcement comes after the administration first announced, right before the Oct. 1 launch of all ObamaCare exchanges, that it was delaying the small business market. At the time, the administration claimed the delay would only be until this November. . .”
November, 2014. Hmmm, now what is supposed to happen then? Let me think . . .
By the way, property taxes on the house in #80 are $27,000 a year.
How are things better in Cleveland?
Both Cleveland houses in post #78 have a $20k property tax bill as well.
Ridgewood downright cheap in comparison.
And that house in #80 sold for $1,700,000 in Feb. 2009. Holy Sh1t!
#88
didnt mean to imply there weren’t more desirable neighborhoods in Cleveland, just a bigger supply of “median houses”.
Also, I have no doubt that every market has its share of overextended/delusional/unqualified sellers as well.
One realtor told me it is very hard not to overpay on a personal home.
Usually sellers over price homes, when you find the home that is just perfect for you. You usually want it a lot and are willing to over pay a bit, but folks on pure investment properties do not.
For instance I think I overpaid for my condo. I could have got one for like 40K less with same rent in same complex. However, wife was involved and so was kids.
Some units face dumpster can, some face away from sun, some have a parking spot between two cars so you might get dinged and some have decks double the size of others and a few have a lawn out front of unit that although is public space technically, you can put your chairs and tables out and have an outdoor party, some are further from street and some have storage attic space.
A renter does not know the minor difference. Even if he did he would pay peanuts. My unit has all of these things. Even though all units around same size. Bottom line kids and wife wanted all this stuff and I figured it is dead money but I should get it back at sale. So bottom line I overpaid.
Also the prior house we almost bought was an extremely cut yellow bungalow in really nice condition vs a run down horrible identical bungalow owned by a nasty old man. Price difference was 25k and I could have fixed the other bungalow for 15K saving 10K but wife hated the negative vibes and work
Funny when you buy a house and everyone on block hates owner it takes years for people to warm up to you.
They will hate me when I eventually sell my house to 3 asian families
I advertised my last place in the World Journal in Mandarian.
Kept those broke dick round eyed folks out of my house
xolepa says:
November 27, 2013 at 3:58 pm
They will hate me when I eventually sell my house to 3 asian families
Chi, I love the comment at the end. The Rolling Stones of New Wave.
So true, making crap albums and touring on their old hits.
http://djrioblog.com/2013/11/26/new-wave-artists-aging-gracefully-an-80s-world-gone-by/
Nice piece on Gen X, the forgotten generation.
http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20130710-the-forgotten-generation
I discussed this with someone in her last year. Health Insurance is a misnomer it’s more a discount buying club. The discussion got lost in the usual bleating about public sector workers and free bennies.
http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20131126-what-health-insurance-really-is
Grim the shill strikes again
If the upper 5% or 1% or what your favorite top is richer–how come according to you post #2 all market tiers went up?
If only the poor are underwater and foreclosed don’t you think that if banks let this segment of the market fall then this would have an effect to other segments? (your post #29)
You are naive or you think we are naive (the latter according to post #29–get it?)
The only reason you and your ilk survives is because the fed is feeding you despite your libertarian pretense. Instead of being grateful to the fed you negate the reality of stagnant salaries, unemployment and general demise of American economy.
To the poster who complains that housing is unaffordable at the places he could afford before the bubble you respond that it is not, rebubble is justified, he is not worth of them and he should look elsewhere. Hypocritte.
are complaining about it? Isn’t that the dream of you extreme right-wingers? A society like Brazil with a few oligarchs owning everything while most starve?
what’s the opposite of it, a communist Sweden where EVERYBODY enjoys a high quality of life.
grim says:
November 27, 2013 at 12:23 pm
I don’t think everyone fully appreciates the bifurcation of class and income that exists in this state.
Brazilification isn’t on the horizon, it is already here, and it defines us.
This dumbell distribution of employment, net worth, income, that exists on a county and state level, makes looking at median/average statistics completely misleading.
Median home price in Stockholm is $770k.
They have more money than us. Communist? Hardly.
In fact, much of stockholms price growth is attributed to the somewhat recent change to eliminate the inheritance tax.
Essentially keeping the oligarch families wealthy .
Try again, and imagine that, elimination of inheritance taxes, so very right wing.
of course they are not communist, i was clearly joking.
i go to Brazil at least once a year and have been to Sweden twice. given the choice, extreme right-wingers would always prefer the inequality of the former than the equality of the latter
Equality?
4 Bedroom house outside of Stockholm – $2.6 million
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/21/greathomesanddestinations/house-hunting-in-sweden.html?_r=0
For libturd and Gator and the rest of the tribe, happy 8 crazy nights.
If the upper 5% or 1% or what your favorite top is richer–how come according to you post #2 all market tiers went up?
My point wasn’t to justify price increases, but to justify pricing differentials (which have ALWAYS existed, but perhaps not at these levels).
If only the poor are underwater and foreclosed don’t you think that if banks let this segment of the market fall then this would have an effect to other segments? (your post #29)
Pricing segments? Sure. Neighborhoods? No. The change in prices in Paterson has absolutely nothing to do with prices in Franklin Lakes, period. There is no linkage at all. That is the point of my premise.
You are naive or you think we are naive (the latter according to post #29–get it?)
The end is neigh! The end is neigh! Where is the armageddon you promised? The riots? Cars burning in the streets? Roving mobs of homeless? I’ve been more right and you’ve been more wrong. My track record is public, go back and look.
The only reason you and your ilk survives is because the fed is feeding you despite your libertarian pretense.
Doesn’t that apply everywhere? What value do you create? What exactly do you do anyway? Again, mine is public, so perhaps you’d like to share? I have many hundreds of emails from readers who have shared there stories with me, stories about how this blog “saved them” (there words, not mine), from making a bad decision, and having almost certain disaster result. Given the details some have shared with me, I suspect I (and the rest of the regulars here) may have saved blog readers somewhere around $75,000,000 during the bubble. That’s the value I create. What value do you create?
To the poster who complains that housing is unaffordable at the places he could afford before the bubble you respond that it is not, rebubble is justified, he is not worth of them and he should look elsewhere.
These price differentials existed before the bubble and these same neighborhoods were still less affordable in comparison to others. Perhaps you could get a nice house in Franklin Lakes for $350,000 in 1996, however, when a house cost $120,000 in Clifton, in comparison, Franklin Lakes was still wildly unaffordable.
What re-bubble? Recovering 1/3rd of price declines is hardly a bubble. In fact, many areas are still firmly within the 3-5% long-term trend lines, the same ones many of us used to argue the very existence of the bubble.
I agree, perhaps the most disappointing part of the crash is the fact that the highest-end towns didn’t fall as far as the lowest-end towns, which meant that many here couldn’t get the big bargains that they’d hoped for.
Hypocritte.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Given the details some have shared with me, I suspect I (and the rest of the regulars here) may have saved blog readers somewhere around $75,000,000 during the bubble.
Just some justification.
My testimonials folder in gmail has 493 emails in it. Prices range, but I would be comfortable with the average purchase price being somewhere around $500,000 during the bubble.
$500,000 x 493 = $246,500,000
Assume a 30% decline from peak on average.
$246,500,000 x 0.3 = $73,950,000
And this is only from folks that have emailed me over the past 8 years. What if I assume only half the people I’ve helped had emailed me, that brings it to $148 million dollars. You do know that during the peak of the bubble, this blog had more than 10,000 unique readers a day.
I suppose lots have been thankful for my advice and this blog over past thanksgivings.
Again, what value have you created?
Happy Turkey Day everyone.
To my Wingnut friends here’s a little Sister Sarah to get your Juices flowing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJd_vm9VhpU
To the normal people we can be thankful she didn’t get elected.
I LOVE the NY Post
http://nypost.com/2013/11/26/south-america-pole-dance-2013-competition/#3
On the question of where the REO properties are…the current crop of REO does not appear to be exclusively inner city trash. Most of the inventory I am seeing could be classified as lower middle range properties. For example I have received recent inventory in Fairfield (flood zone), Waldwick, Kearny, Little Falls, Paterson, Montville, Belleville, Bloomfield, Clifton and East Orange in the last couple of weeks.
Banks are fixing anything that makes sense or almost makes sense. Client just informed me they are demolishing a property assigned to me in East Orange. I was very surprised. Told client I could get them $20,000 as is. They decided to spend $15,000 to demo and realize they may have to donate the property or accept around $5,000 for the lot. Their concern is liability because the property has structural issues.
When I first started selling REO a client would give you the majority of their inventory to a single broker in a market area. Most clients looked at NJ as having 2 market areas, north and south. Some viewed NJ as a single market area. Now most large clients require you to be within 15 miles of the property they assign. No single broker has an inventory of more than 20 properties. All properties MUST BE IN MLS. A different world than 25 years ago!
Somebody should create a squatter app for REOs.
Grim, I don’t think most people understand the difference between what happened in inner city markets in North Jersey vs strong, desirable, suburban markets. For example, the East Orange property that will be demolished in comment #108 sold for more than $300,000 in 2005. Even if the property did not have structural issues, was not stripped and vandalized, it would only have a market value in the $125,000 to $140,000 range. The drop on many of these inner city homes was easily in excess of 50%. Suburban markets dropped between 20% to 30%. The stronger the location and school system the lower the decline. Changes to the mortgage market in the post bubble world have made the climb out of the hole more difficult in the inner city markets.
Go ahead, stuff yer maw with dry bird meat and HFCS-coated vegetables.
Today is a day to drink whiskey and talk of revolt.
I’m thankful for Grim and his fact based assessments of NJ real estate, and for providing a forum where I can see the opinions of both the astute and idiotic participants.
“U.S. borrowers are increasingly missing payments on home equity lines of credit they took out during the housing bubble, a trend that could deal another blow to the country’s biggest banks according to Reuters Insight.
It would likely also deal another blow to the U.S. property market and the fragile U.S. economy.
Bank of America, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo appear to be the most exposed – meaning that either taxpayers will again be asked to bail out banks or more likely the new bail-in regime will confiscate cash from depositors.
From Reuters:
The loans are a problem now because an increasing number are hitting their 10-year anniversary, at which point borrowers usually must start paying down the principal on the loans as well as the interest they had been paying all along.
More than $221 billion of these loans at the largest banks will hit this mark over the next four years, about 40 percent of the home equity lines of credit now outstanding.
For a typical consumer, that shift can translate to their monthly payment more than tripling, a particular burden for the subprime borrowers that often took out these loans. And payments will rise further when the Federal Reserve starts to hike rates, because the loans usually carry floating interest rates.
At a conference last month in Washington, DC, Amy Crews Cutts, the chief economist at consumer credit agency Equifax, told mortgage bankers that an increase in tens of thousands of homeowners’ monthly payments on these home equity lines is a pending “wave of disaster”.
In terms of loan losses, “What we’ve seen so far is the tip of the iceberg. It’s relatively low in relation to what’s coming,” Equifax’s Crews Cuts said.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-11-27/%E2%80%9Cwave-disaster%E2%80%9D-threatens-us-mortgage-market
roops…moderated
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone! :)
Picke up a bottle of Balcones Baby Blue – good set of guys down there, need to take a trip.
gary, i got priced out of Thanksgiving.
Pour some of this on your turkey:
“U.S. borrowers are increasingly missing payments on home equity lines of credit they took out during the housing bubble, a trend that could deal another blow to the country’s biggest banks according to Reuters Insight.
It would likely also deal another blow to the U.S. property market and the fragile U.S. economy.
Bank of America, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo appear to be the most exposed – meaning that either taxpayers will again be asked to bail out banks or more likely the new bail-in regime will confisc@te cash from depositors.
From Reuters:
The loans are a problem now because an increasing number are hitting their 10-year anniversary, at which point borrowers usually must start paying down the principal on the loans as well as the interest they had been paying all along.
More than $221 billion of these loans at the largest banks will hit this mark over the next four years, about 40 percent of the home equity lines of credit now outstanding.
For a typical consumer, that shift can translate to their monthly payment more than tripling, a particular burden for the subprime borrowers that often took out these loans. And payments will rise further when the Federal Reserve starts to hike rates, because the loans usually carry floating interest rates.
At a conference last month in Washington, DC, Amy Crews Cutts, the chief economist at consumer credit agency Equifax, told mortgage bankers that an increase in tens of thousands of homeowners’ monthly payments on these home equity lines is a pending “wave of disaster”.
In terms of loan losses, “What we’ve seen so far is the tip of the iceberg. It’s relatively low in relation to what’s coming,” Equifax’s Crews Cuts said.”
This one is for Spine.
Happy thanksgiving.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCPuFaDX1M8
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!
phoenix (119)-
Jesus, dude, it’s asking me to sign in and verify my age. What did you send me, a snuff movie?
Whoa. It is a snuff movie!
Spine,
I figured you would appreciate a movie with a good head shot.
Seemed appropriate.
Happy turkey day turkeys and thanks for the kind wishes Nom.
grim – I don’t doubt your stats, but think about how they play out in the “nice” towns. If
12% of home is in these towns are under water and/or delinquent, isn’t that approximately the same percentage that should be for sale in those towns, in fact maybe 12 % is high? Roll back to 2002 and all delinquencies are on the market and there’s no such thing as under water. IMO, what should be the lion’s share of the market is frozen in the good towns, which is putting a temporary floor under prices with less and less greater fools biting at same.
grim says:
November 27, 2013 at 11:22 am
Not everybody is fvcked but NJ is near the top in both underwater mortgages and shadow inventory, so plenty are are.
This has been discussed before, the vast, vast majority of “underwater”, “shadow”, or “foreclosure” inventory are in the absolute least desirable towns and neighborhoods.
Think Paterson, Newark, Irvington, East Orange, Elizabeth, Kearny, Passaic, West New York, Dover, Vernon, Trenton, Ewing, Camden, Bridgeton, Millville, Salem, etc etc etc.
And these towns are not slightly worse, there is a MASSIVE differential between mortgage performance in the most and least desirable towns.
07502 – Paterson – 54% of homes underwater, 32% of them are delinquent.
07522 – Paterson – 42% of homes underwater, 49% of them are delinquent
Compare.
07450 – Ridgewood – 5% of homes under water, 7% of them are delinquent
07090 – Westfield – 6% of homes under water, 4% of them are delinquent
Again, just to make sure we all understand
07114 – Newark – 64% of homes under water, 47% of them are delinquent
07201 – Elizabeth – 61% of homes under water, 38% of them are delinquent
To:
07901 – Summit – 6% of homes under water, 7% of them are delinquent
07976 – Harding – 7% of homes under water, 0% of them are delinquent
Get it?
If 12% of home is in these towns are under water and/or delinquent, isn’t that approximately the same percentage that should be for sale in those towns, in fact maybe 12 % is high?
Sorry, maybe the way I wrote that was misleading, those two numbers aren’t additive, the second figure is a subset of the first.
07901 – Summit – 6% of homes under water, 7% of them are delinquent
6% of homes are underwater.
Of those underwater homes, only 7% of them are delinquent.
So underwater and delinquent homes in Summit are 0.42% (7% of the 6%) or 1 in 250 homes, not 13%.
07522 – Paterson – 42% of homes underwater, 49% of them are delinquent
Underwater and delinquent homes make up 20.6%, so in comparison, more than 1 in 5 homes.