Prediction time came early this year

From Zillow:

Real Estate Predictions & the Hottest Housing Markets for 2014


Four Bold Housing Predictions for 2014

1. U.S. home values will increase by 3 percent
2. Mortgage rates will reach 5 percent by the end of the year
3. It will be easier for borrowers to get a mortgage in 2014
4. Homeownership rates will fall to their lowest point in nearly two decades

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

114 Responses to Prediction time came early this year

  1. grim says:

    From Yahoo Finance (warning, annoying auto-play video):

    Even as Housing Cools It’s Still a Seller’s Market: Zillow CEO

    The U.S. housing market appears to be cooling off and that’s not a bad thing, according to Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff.

    Rascoff expects home values to appreciate by about 3% in 2014, lower than the 5% appreciation rate homes had been seeing over the past year or so.

    “The fact that the housing market is starting to slow down” means the recovery is sustainable, he says. “We had bounced too far off the bottom too quickly and so this slowdown is okay.”

    The real estate market, of course, is a bifurcated story. According to Rascoff, appreciation in Las Vegas is up 33% year-over-year. California, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona have also seen home prices appreciate by more than 20% year-over-year.

    Washington D.C., Chicago and Philadelphia, however, have all seen home values drop year-over-year.

    “These markets are starting to find their own footing, some going way up and some not so much,” explains Rascoff.

    And the markets that are shooting up now won’t be for long, he notes. “It’s unsustainable…Las Vegas at 33% year-over-year [price appreciation] has to come down. What’s important to remember is these markets that are shooting up so quickly fell the furthest so they had a lot further to go on the way back up.”

    So where are the housing risks in 2014?

    “What’s driving the housing market now is negative equity,” says Rascoff. “But what’s happened over the last year or two is that about 5 million Americans have been freed from negative equity so in some of these inventory constrained markets where home values were going way up more inventory is coming onto the market and that’s what’s helping to moderate these appreciation rates.”

    The days of buying a home at 50% less than its estimated value are gone.
    It’s a seller’s market right now according to Rascoff.

  2. grim says:

    Hopper’s “East Wind Over Weehawken” sells for a record breaking $40.5 million, almost double the auction estimates.

    And there we have it, a painting of NJ real estate has a better financial return over 80 years than the actual real estate pictured in it.

  3. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    N.J.’s Newark Advances Eminent Domain Plan to Slow Foreclosures

    Newark, New Jersey’s most populous city, is moving forward with a plan that could use government power to seize underwater mortgages to help homeowners reduce debt and avoid foreclosure.

    The Newark City Council voted unanimously yesterday to begin legal research toward a program of making market-value offers on the most toxic loans and reissuing them to homeowners at the lowered amount.

    Governments have long used the power of eminent domain to force landowners to sell property for public uses such as highways, and for economic development. Cities in about a dozen states from California and Washington to New York and New Jersey are considering deploying it to help homeowners who owe more than their houses are worth, said Robert Hockett, a Cornell University law professor who advised local governments.

    “It encourages banks and trusts that own some of these toxic mortgages to get them off their books,” said Paul Karr, a spokesman for New Jersey Communities United, an advocacy group for troubled homeowners. “In one sense, having the actual cash on hand at fair-market value is more valuable than having an underwater mortgage that’s probably going to go into foreclosure.”

  4. grim says:

    Slow foreclosures?? SLOW FORECLOSURES!?!?!?!? WHAT FORECLOSURES?????????

    Said it before, and I’ll say it again, NJ’s foreclosure backlog isn’t being driven by a high volume of distressed properties moving through the pipeline, it is that the pipeline, *by design*, will not function in a way necessary to clear *any* properties. We’ve gone out of our way to put up numerous roadblocks, delays, changed the legislative and judicial landscapes numerous times (making it near impossible to navigate), kept the pipeline diameter constrained such that even if it began to flow, at best it would be a trickle (scheduling only a small number of hearings on a weekly basis, assigning 1 judge to 50,000 foreclosure cases), additional disclosures, additional affidavits, moratoria, additional mediation, etc etc etc.

    I argue that NJ’s foreclosure pipeline, on a % basis, actually isn’t bad at all, but because little to no properties come out of the other end of the pipeline, of course the pipeline is going to have a high individual property count in comparison to states that actually foreclose on properties. Any comparison that leverages the “% of homes in foreclosure” statistic simply can not provide an apples to apples comparison when the timelines differ.

    At the current pace of resolution, in some towns it could take upwards of 10 years to clear the pipeline, assuming zero new foreclosures. Even when you see insanely high increases in NJ foreclosure auction volume (I believe RealtyTrac in October showed NJ at up 97%), this is completely meaningless as the starting numbers are so small, that we would need this number to go up by hundreds of percent just to bring us to what would be considered a reasonable foreclosure pace, let alone yield a number of REO that can actually impact the market.

    Again, my argument is that NJ’s 1000+ day foreclosure timeline is BY DESIGN. We enact a new law that allows for accelerated foreclosures of abandoned properties, it passes, goes live more than a year ago, and I’ve yet to see or hear of ANY PROPERTIES going through this process (I could be wrong, and looking in the wrong places, so point them out if you see them). Again, we’ve created a legislative and judicial nightmare around foreclosures that is so risky, that no lender is willing to even try the new foreclosure process, lest something go wrong, some disclosure filed improperly, wrong document signed, incorrect filing of paperwork, that they will be hung out to dry because of it.

  5. grim says:

    For example, from Philly Burbs:

    Foreclosures stalled in New Jersey, statistics show

    Home foreclosure filings in New Jersey have dropped dramatically, according to the latest figures released by both the New Jersey Judiciary and Realty Trac, a nationwide firm that tracks foreclosure statistics.

    That’s the good news. The bad news is that the good news may be short-lived.

    The judiciary has been working since late last year to ensure that the foreclosure processes used by six major lenders in the state are proceeding fairly. This has created a backlog in the filing of new cases.

    “We are pretty confident that much of the decline in foreclosures this year is related to the recent Supreme Court action regarding the foreclosure problem rather than the changing economic forecast,” said Tammy Kendig, spokeswoman for the judiciary.

    In Burlington County, foreclosure filings declined 88 percent in the first four months of this year compared with the same period in 2010, according to the judiciary.

    Realty Trac reports a 92 percent decline in the total number of foreclosures being processed in the county in May compared with the same month last year.

    New Jersey Supreme Court Chief Justice Stuart Rabner appointed state Superior Court Judge Mary C. Jacobson to oversee foreclosure proceedings.

    In March, Jacobson appointed a “special master” — retired Superior Court Judge Richard J. Williams — to review foreclosure portfolio processing information from six major lenders.

    Williams is examining the lenders’ foreclosure document preparation for “accuracy, reliability and compliance with (state) applicable laws, court rules and the business record requirements.”

  6. grim says:

    You think lenders aren’t going to be especially cautious when they see things like this:

    PHH, state reach $6.25M consumer fraud settlement

    Mount Laurel-based mortgage outsourcing company PHH Corp. has entered a $6.25 million settlement with the state resolving claims the company “misled financially struggling homeowners who sought loan modifications or other help to avoid mortgage delinquency or foreclosure,” according to an announcement today from acting state Attorney General John Hoffman.

    “This settlement provides relief to a large number of individual consumers who were subjected to unacceptable mortgage servicing practices,” Hoffman said in a release. “It also ensures appropriate reforms in PHH’s mortgage-servicing operations.”

    The settlement requires no admission of wrongdoing or liability. It consists of $3.62 million in restitution for more than 2,000 borrowers across the country whose loans were serviced by PHH. An additional $2.63 million will go to the state.

    As part of the settlement, the company must also adopt “nationwide servicing standards set forth in the Consent Judgment” and will be required for two years to offer the state detailed quarterly information regarding its activities related to mortgage modifications, foreclosures and borrower calls to the company’s loss mitigation department.

  7. grim says:

    Actually, LPS back in 2011 estimated that it would take the state of NJ 49 years to work through the foreclosure backlog.

    Now, you may think, my god, there must be a huge number of foreclosures..

    However, compare the following. In the past year alone, the state of Florida has been able to clear around 100,000 foreclosures, California – 75,000, Michigan – 63,000, Texas – 51,000, Georgia – 47,000, Arizona – 33,000, Illinois – 30,000, Ohio – 30,000, Indiana – 19,000, Pennsylvania – 14,000.

    How many has NJ been able to clear?


    How is the state of Florida able to 30 times the foreclosure volume of NJ?

    Like I said, NJ’s foreclosure backlog is BY DESIGN.

  8. Thundaar says:

    2-Amazing. If only we could live inside the picture.

  9. Street Justice says:

    Grim how can item 1 and 4 in the headline article both happen at the same time? Isn’t a lower homeownership rate lower demand? Do you think inflation will outpace a decrease in demand…or is there a decrease in supply?

  10. grim says:

    9 – Would need for the pace of new housing unit construction (both sale and rental) to be below the pace of population and household growth, and the preference of households would need to continue to shift towards rental.

    The big wildcard I’ve seen talked about is the low household formation rate eventually needing to bounce back, and potentially overshoot the norm trend (it’s not that we don’t have the populate growth to form new households, it’s that the population is delaying the formation of those households).

  11. anon (the good one) says:

    @frontlinepbs: “A nation should not be judged by how it treats its highest citizens, but its lowest ones” -Nelson #Mandela

  12. grim says:

    11 – That would make us the greatest nation in the world!

    Have you seen the photographs of the slums in South Africa?

    If you haven’t, and you are wealthy enough, you can even partake of a 5 star “Slum Experience”:

  13. grim says:

    From the Telegraph:

    More than half of South Africa’s children live in poverty

    Eighteen years after the end of apartheid, South Africa is now judged to be one of the most unequal societies in the world and its 19 million children bear the brunt of the disconnect.

    The Unicef report found that 1.4 million children live in homes that rely on often dirty streams for drinking water, 1.5 million have no flushing lavatories and 1.7 million live in shacks, with no proper bedding, cooking or washing facilities.

    Four in 10 live in homes where no one is employed and, in cases of dire poverty, the figure rises to seven in 10.

    A total of 330,000 children – and five million adults – are currently infected with HIV, and 40 per cent die from the pandemic annually.

  14. anon (the good one) says:

    Coincidently, Barron’s lead article this past weekend is Paul Theroux’ diatribe about “Africa’s Aid Mess”

  15. Please don’t buzzkill anon with facts.

  16. He actually functions pretty well for someone who puts gasoline in hefty bags, then inhales the fumes.

  17. grim says:

    While folks like Nicky Oppenheimer swim in a fortune borne of Africa’s natural resources. Nicky recently sold his stake in Debeers and his diamond mines for $5 billion.

    By the way, Nelson Mandela is estimated to have a net worth of upwards of $10 million. But don’t ask, because it’s taboo.

    …and 330,000 children in South Africa have AIDS.

  18. anon (the good one) says:

    @chrislhayes: “Sen. Jesse Helms (R–N.C.)…took the Sen floor 2 filibuster on behalf of the apartheid government of South Africa.”

  19. Ottoman says:

    Of course, South Africa was a country that forced 90% of its population to wallow in abject poverty only 25 years ago. If you compare the US to actual other first and second world countries we are at the top of the child poverty rates.

    “The United States ranks 34th of the 35 countries surveyed, above only Romania and below virtually all of Europe plus Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Japan.”

  20. grim says:

    19 – Funny thing about that list, almost all of the top countries have extremely restrictive immigration policies and and almost nonexistent immigrant population compared to the United States.

    Are you really saying you want to close all the borders and deport the illegal population to improve our childhood poverty rates?

  21. Not so happy renter says:

    Anyone know what tenant rights are if landlord wants to sell condo tenant is renting and tenant occupied unit post conversion?

    Can landlord demand to show home to prospective buyers prior to lease ending and if tenant agrees to let landlord show condo only during last few months of lease is that an issue?

    Does landlord have to give tenant any money to cover cost of move and possible commission on new rental unit?

    Only info online was this and it is not helpful:

  22. grim says:

    Or even better, how about ILLEGAL population?

    Austria – Zero
    Czech Republic – Zero
    France – 0.09%
    Germany – 0.31%
    Netherlands – Zero

    US? – 3.8%

  23. grim says:

    21 – Depends on your lease – when I’ve worked to write leases for properties we thought might go to sale during tenancy, we specifically included provisions to protect the tenant (my clients). Such as, no showings prior to the last 2 months of tenancy. No unscheduled showings (all showings requiring a verbal confirmation by the tenant of the appointment). Requiring the landlord to pay all moving expenses and forfeit any claims to security if they terminate the lease early, etc.

    Suspect you don’t have any of that.

    Does landlord have to give tenant any money to cover cost of move and possible commission on new rental unit?

    Suspect you might be able to take the landlord to court for breaching the lease contract, unless they have provisions in the lease that allow them to break it with notice, with no penalties.

  24. Ottoman says:

    “Europe and Asia combined host nearly two-thirds of all international migrants worldwide. Europe remains the most popular destination region with 72 million international migrants in 2013, compared to 71 million in Asia. Since 1990, Northern America recorded the largest gain in the absolute number of international migrants, adding 25 million, and experienced the fastest growth in migrant stock by an average of 2.8 per cent per year.

    International migration remains highly concentrated
    In 2013, half of all international migrants lived in 10 countries, with the US hosting the largest number (45.8 million), followed by the Russian Federation (11 million); Germany (9.8 million); Saudi Arabia (9.1 million); United Arab Emirates (7.8 million); United Kingdom (7.8 million); France (7.4 million); Canada (7.3 million); Australia (6.5 million); and Spain (6.5 million).”

    Considering there are only 36 million people in Canada, 7 million migrants is a lot. Same with Australia. France, Germany and the UK only have about 70 mill each and Spain 45 million.

  25. grim says:

    24 – Exactly … look at where Spain, Germany, UK, France appear on the list you posted relative to their (legal) immigrant migration, look at where the US is. Where are the Nordics (Surprisingly absent)?

    My point is that the lowest childhood poverty rates are typically found in the developed countries with the least number of immigrants (especially illegal), and most restrictive migration policies.

    Try to move to Denmark, Luxembourg, Austria… See how far you get. I hope you have income, assets, investments, a job, and a stellar CV.

  26. Not so happy renter says:

    The only thing I have is that they can show unit last couple of months with specified times on given days with 24 hrs notice.

    I am assuming that if they can’t show the unit until then, they likely won’t get a buyer to purchase sight unseen. They tried to sell them a few years ago with no takers.

    Unfortunately, it seems as if I am a post conversion tenant so not much leverage and apparently minimal or no shot at getting that three year stay.

  27. chicagofinance says:

    NJ RE Technology Update Report (clot Hard Perimeter Edition):
    It takes $452 and just 24 hours to build a semi-automatic rifle that falls outside of law enforcement’s radar — thanks to modern technology.
    Gilman Louie, a San Francisco venture capitalist who used to run the CIA’s venture arm In-Q-Tel, said he used a 3D printer to make part of an AR-15 that would normally come with a serial number.
    Louie got around the restrictions with the help of his Makerbot printer.
    Such printers let people make three-dimensional objects from designs created with software.
    “It’s the next big boom,” Louie told The Post.
    Aside from the Makerbot printer, which costs $2,000, making the AR-15 was relatively cheap.
    Louie used one to two dollars’ worth of plastic to print the gun part. After printing the piece, known as the lower receiver, Louie shelled out another $400 to $450 to complete the gun with unregulated parts he got from
    Within a week — and 24 hours’ worth of labor — he shot off more than 50 rounds. It was “not difficult at all,” he said.
    The project is sure to raise eyebrows. “The idea of being able to produce any weapon on demand … it’s a dilemma,” he said.
    Law enforcement issues notwithstanding, Louie and his San Francisco venture capital firm are in the process of finding 3D printing companies to invest in.
    The company, Alsop Louie Partners, aims to invest up to $5 million in a 3D printing start-up in the next six months, he said. The firm will look to invest more in the coming years.
    The 3D printing industry has become a lightning rod topic on Wall Street as shares of publicly traded 3D makers soar. The lofty stock prices have attracted short-sellers like hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson, who thinks the space — and especially shares of 3D Systems Corp. — is ripe for a tumble.
    Louie also thinks the industry is “crude and primitive,” and that current printers are still far off from becoming a household item. As much as 80 percent of the present industry will be dead in 10 years, he said.
    But Louie thinks 3D printers are akin to the personal computer industry in the 1970s. The technology was crude and expensive back then, and yet it “changed all of our lives.”
    “I think 3D printers will do the same thing,” he said.

  28. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [25] grim,

    See spine’s comment on buzzkill. Hitting a liberal with inconvenient facts is like teaching a pig to sing.

  29. grim says:

    Finland – Lowest child poverty rate?

    Wonder why?

    If a family of 5 wants a residency permit (and wants to keep their residency permit and not be deported), they need to show a household income of approximately $50,000 USD. Any less, they will not be granted an application for residency. Fall under? Good bye, hope you enjoyed your stay!

    Me thinks that some are confusing the outcomes of exclusionary immigration policies with the perceived benefits of social security programs. Imagine how much better the benefits for the poor would be in the United States …. if we deported three quarters of them?

  30. grim says:

    If you don’t have a job, you can buy a residency permit to live in Switzerland.

    It only costs $250,000 USD per year, probably paid up-front, and you need to show sufficient income to fund your stay.

  31. Essex says:

    2. That’s nuthin. Bought a Basquiat in the 80’s for $30K? Imagine the ROI on that one……

  32. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    Not exactly news for this crowd but concise article on the subject nonetheless.

    One has to wonder what this trend, if it is a full-on trend, portends for NJ? Philly and NYC are also destination cities but both are so close to NJ that this trend is likely to be muted here. Also, neither Philly or NYC are doing what some of these other cities, like Chicago, are doing to attract business, nor has NYC seen the dropoff in rents that Chicago seems to have suffered from its pension and tax crisis.

  33. grim says:

    How about Austria – If your Austrian employer will vouch for you, and guarantee you a salary of at least $70,000USD, you can get a residency permit without having to jump through any of the other hoops, you know, like a university degree, a job, proof of financial means necessary to fund the stay, proof of lodging (executed lease or proof of home ownership), German language fluency, and health insurance.

  34. yome says:

    33 this is true in the US. To apply as a legal immigrant you need a sponsor. The sponsor should make enough to support your stay plus medical needs.Proof thatnyou will not be a burden to the state. But once you are here Immigration dont follow up on this.

  35. Happy Renter says:

    Come on now, Grim. Don’t spoil the libtard knee-jerk reaction that everything in Europe is better, more civilized, more liberal, and more humane.

  36. grim says:

    I especially like this one, it’s a common one among the top tier EU states:

    “Residence for Persons of Independent Means”

    Now, I’m not exactly sure, since sometimes things get lost in translation, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say “Independent Means” is code word for “Rich”.

    Now, I’m trying to find the residency permit named:

    “Residence for poor huddled masses yearning to breath free”

    But must just not be looking in the right place.

  37. grim says:

    Not to mention the level of racism and xenophobia against lower income immigrants across Europe. It makes race relations in the United States look like “It’s a Small World” at Disney in comparison.

  38. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    #36/#37..Grim, you are exactly right, while it seems folks hold Europe somehow above or better than the US, and we are far from perfect…those 2 posts are often “over looked”….

  39. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [37] grim,

    Very true. White Europeans are openly racist in a way that would have Al Sharpton and his minions outside your townhouse in a matter of hours should you tweet anything a fraction as controversial as what you hear routinely there. And there, you can be prosecuted for it.

  40. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    grim stop stomping on anon the moron’s unicorns even if they are squishy

  41. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    Posted before, but quite relevant when Dear Leader talks about raising the minimum wage.

    It is not lost on me however that there are agenda objectives that would be served by increasing the min. wage that go beyond merely lifting people out of poverty:

    ** Curtail fast food/unhealthy food consumption
    ** Force more young people into Obamacare
    ** Reduce nonunion employment as a percentage of overall employment
    ** Increase the number of “clients” for government services
    ** (related) increase the amount needed for government benefits by creating demand
    ** Indirectly create a larger group of reliable constituents for the democratic party.

  42. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    It appears I have another Fabian screed to reply to but that is gonna have to wait as I have several meetings scheduled today. But I will get this in:

    Fabian: “Punt”

    Yeah, well, deal with it. I said I wasn’t as busy. Still have a lot more important things to do than inform you.

  43. Phoenix says:

    Where it all started to go wrong………

  44. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    oh, and one final passage from the MIT Tech Review’s article on Baxter the Robot:

    “At Budnick’s shop, it’s easy to see how efficient things already are. Even though it’s a small company, with $6 million in revenue, Vanguard operates state-of-the-art automated electric presses, costing about $150,000 each, that crush plastic pellets into shapes under 1,000 atmospheres of pressure. Custom-built robots—running on tracks overhead—swing down to pluck out the finished parts and place them on a conveyor. The presses work nonstop from Monday to Saturday at noon. Sunday is for resting.

    One routine job that’s still done by hand at Vanguard is packing parts. Coming off one of the presses are small, textured, plastic cups, which Vanguard sells for 2 cents apiece to a medical company to package liquid medicines. A worker from a temporary agency, earning $9 an hour, stacks the cups, then flicks a plastic bag over the stacks.

    This is the job that Baxter will be trying out for when Rethink delivers a modified version of the robot, due at Vanguard for a field test this winter. Budnick says if he can eliminate one temporary worker—thus earning back his investment in a single year—he’ll buy Rethink’s robot.”

  45. grim says:

    How about this win for democracy: There are cantons in Switzerland where your residency permit needs to be voted on by the local population. It’s like a Park Avenue Coop board, only that it’s the whole f*cking state that gets to decide. Wonder if a migrant family from Mexico can get approved?

    Tina Turner, on the other hand, is welcomed.

  46. All Hype says:

    Tina Turner, on the other hand, is welcomed.

    You can include Roger Moore to the list.

  47. Pete says:

    #41, I think you may be missing the biggest one..

    ** Many union contracts have ladder clauses tied to the minimum wage. An increase in the minimum wage results in a raise for those groups.

  48. grim says:

    46 – Suspect that Moore’s children aren’t in poverty.

  49. grim says:

    Why didn’t I ever get a response to my comments about living equality in Sweden the other day? Especially my comments on Swedish home prices being more out of line than in the United States?

    Average home price in Sweden is what now? Only $620,000 USD. When the immigrant family moves to Stockholm, I assume they are given a home for free? Oh wait, average home price in Stockholm is $770,000 USD.

    Want to live on a nice street in Stockholm? Price per square foot is “only” in the low thousands (Around $4m USD for 2000 square feet).

    Good luck, I suspect you would not be granted residency or citizenship in Sweden if you applied.

  50. grim says:

    Wealth Equality in Sweden:

    United States Wealth Share
    Top Quintile – 84%
    Second Quintile – 11%
    Middle Quintile – 4%
    Fourth Quintile – 0.2-0.1%
    Bottom Quintile -0%

    Sweden Wealth Share
    Top Quintile – 73%
    Second Quintile – 20%
    Middle Quintile – 6%
    Fourth Quintile – 0.5-0%
    Bottom Quintile – 0%

    SHOCKED that the world standard in social democracy could have such a dramatic distribution of wealth (in)equality.

  51. Street Justice says:

    Speaking of wealth equality…..

    Map: Where do the homeless in New Jersey live?

  52. Carlito says:

    Income inequality (not wealth, as you mention above) is commonly measured by the very abstract GINI coefficient, and by that metric the nordic countries (Sweden inc.) lead the world. I do think USA is a great county, I am myself a very proud and grateful immigrant, but I think is a stretch not to see areas where we could improve. See for example the recent results on education by the PISA study group.

  53. grim says:

    52 – Any reason you didn’t immigrate to Sweden? (my argument continues, their low immigration rates (and where there is immigration, it is of the wealthy and educated) and nearly non-existing illegal alien populations significantly impact their social statistics). Again, it appears that high GINI income coefficients are coordinated with restrictive immigration policies (including the Nordics).

    Eliminate poor legal and illegal immigrants – and magically the GINI improves.

  54. grim says:

    Like I said above in #29 – Don’t confuse restrictive immigration policies with social equality or services.

    Finland routinely ranks in the top #5 from a GINI perspective (I think #3 in the last survey).

    Why? You want a residency permit? You need an annual income of $50,000 a year for a family of 5. No income? Bye bye.

    Imagine if we did that in America? Wouldn’t it be great? All the immigrant poor (legal and illegal) would pushed out, and our GINI ranking would SKYROCKET. We would be the envy of the world!

  55. grim says:

    You do realize that there are more illegal aliens in the United States:

    than the ENTIRE POPULATION of Sweden (or double the population of Finland)?

  56. ccb223 says:

    USA got a terrible World Cup draw. Maybe we get something done in 2018. Forget about 2014.

  57. grim says:

    The level of scale and scope is off by levels of magnitude.

    Looking at the Finnish immigration website is almost laughable, how about these quotes:

    At the end of 2011, a total of 183,133 foreign nationals were residing in Finland. This is three per cent of the whole population

    Really, a whole 183k???? – We have 40 million here in the US… Or how about this gem:

    Every year, Finnish authorities uncover a few thousand foreign nationals residing illegally in Finland.

    A few thousand? Is that all????

  58. Phoenix says:

    55 Grim,
    Why do they come here, must be some motivation. Who gave them employment in the USA? Can’t see why they would want to be here if there was no financial incentive for them to come.

  59. Libturd in Union says:

    We got Ghana first at least.

  60. Libturd in Union says:

    They come here for Obama Care.

  61. yome says:

    Give me your tired, your poor,
    Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
    The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
    Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed, to me:
    I lift my lamp beside the golden door.

    “Why do they come here, must be some motivation”

  62. grim says:

    61 – Pretty sure that once you strip away the artsy prose, what that is saying is that US will have a lower GINI income equality ranking than countries that tell the wretched refuse to GTFO … instead opening their arms to the wealthy, high income, educated, yearning to spend their summers on Lake Geneva.

  63. Libturd in Union says:

    So the French sent us Lady Liberty as a cruel joke?

    So if they try to send us a replica of the Kaaba, we probably should not accept it.

  64. Phoenix says:

    so they are motivated by a poem?

    Once again, I pose the question, why do they come here.
    My guess- jobs.
    They are here because there is work.
    Someone is paying them to work.
    What type of employer hires illegals?
    Is it illegal to hire illegals? Why is no one convicted of hiring an illegal?
    Do illegals work cheaper and harder than native USA citizens?
    Maybe that creates the demand for illegals, cheaper and harder working.
    If there was no incentive for illegals to be here, I don’t think they would have come.
    It’s not Obamacare and it’s not a poem.
    It is supply and demand.

  65. Carlito says:

    Grim, as I said I am a grateful immigrant, and I do not argue with you on how generous USA is…I could have moved to any european country, in my part. case the culture for innovation here and associated opportunities were the decisive factor….
    That said, if you look at the math behind the GINI factor, you’ll see that it weights how “fat” or “skinny” the middle of the income distribution is…something being discussed and acknowledged as an issue these days.

  66. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    Some world cup draw for the US hseez!

  67. Street Justice says:

    64 – Being chased by ICE agents in the US probably beats being shot in the face by cartel thugs.

  68. yome says:

    Not saying you are wrong but this Country always had the GINI index at .40. Not until 1989 it started spiking. What happened during this time? Unions that protects the workers started disappearing. Greed started to hold on. Loyalty to employees started disappearing in exchange for loyalty to investors.Unions became greedy. etc
    This Country always took care of its citizens.The kindest people on earth.Its citizens where able to provide on one income to its family until the government put the low income against third world countries.But not the Doctors and others that have strong lobbyist.They celebrated when their homes were fully paid. Today,we sell the home to buy an even bigger liability as soon as we can. Because that is what we are being told.Marketing became so strong people can not tell a lie from the truth

  69. yome says:

    I totally agree with you.And the theme “The US is the country of milk and honey” You can be anything you want as long as you work hard to achieve it.Look at all the immigrants that are here.They may look poor to your standards but compare to where they came from this is milk and honey,until all the bubbles started. They were made to believe on something and started losing their jobs,savings.The biggest thing that most lost on people I know during this time is the belief in saving. We became a country of consumers not producers

  70. Street Justice says:

    Think Again: Mexican Drug Cartels
    They aren’t just about Mexico or drugs anymore.

  71. grim says:

    63 – Nah, that plaque was our invention.

  72. grim says:

    Not until 1989 it started spiking. What happened during this time?

    Suspect it had nothing to do with “greed” in 1989, but more likely the impact of recovery of world manufacturing capability in the post-war period along with our lack of competitiveness against the low-income global workforce.

  73. joyce says:

    So much of your paragraph is spot on… but do you still insist that more spending (via govt and individuals) is what’s required to improve things?

    yome says:
    December 6, 2013 at 1:50 pm
    I totally agree with you.And the theme “The US is the country of milk and honey” You can be anything you want as long as you work hard to achieve it.Look at all the immigrants that are here.They may look poor to your standards but compare to where they came from this is milk and honey,until all the bubbles started. They were made to believe on something and started losing their jobs,savings.The biggest thing that most lost on people I know during this time is the belief in saving. We became a country of consumers not producers

  74. grim says:

    Don’t mistake my comments to mean that I am anti immigration, or anti illegal, that is not the case at all.

    In fact, my comments should be looked at as pro-immigration. If we wish to have the kind of open and accepting immigration policies that we do today, we need to be more accepting of the lower world rankings in equality that will result from these policies.

    The fact that we appear lower than other countries has nothing to do with our lack of social security or programs for the poor, in fact it’s the exact opposite.

    However, I argue that spending money will not fix this issue, since we simply can not guarantee that an immigrant will be successful here. We can only provide the opportunity, nothing more, resulting success or failure is up to you. Contrary to the opinion of most, a poor immigrant can become WILDLY successful, in America. In my family I’m part of the first generation born in America, we’ve not yet squandered the opportunity that so many Americans already have, our parents have done well, and we’ve done well.

    My argument is also to dismiss the fallacy that holds certain European countries on a pedestal, as models of equality, whereby their success in the rankings has *EVERYTHING* to do with exclusion, and nothing to do with inclusion, “Poor need not apply”.

    Like I said above, America would rank much higher in all statistics if we simply just kicked out all the poor immigrants and illegals, but that ain’t the point.

  75. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [72] grim,

    Consider also collapse of USSR and eastern bloc, and increasing (though at that time, nascent) imports from China and other nations that traditionally did not export to the US. I’d also look at dollar valuation and commods, notably oil.

    Finally, consider that this was about when we had some semblance of recover from the Crash of 1987 and it was three years after TRA 1986. Allowing for a lag effect for the crash, one could argue that tax reform, coupled with changes in the world’s economic profile, created a confluence of events that started this bloom in GINI.

    My personal take was that you also had to factor in the fact that there was a zeitgeist back then that things were starting to go to sh1t, that the debt was now an issue, bank stability was questions, corporate loyalty was dead (both ways) and that demographics weren’t going to help. I recall vividly that folks figured had better make what they could while the music was playing because when it stopped next, it might not start again.

    Astonishingly, the long view back 20 years ago was one in which some folks predicted pension issues, muni defaults, downgrades in our sovereign credit rating, infrastructure collapse, punitive taxation, political gridlock and class warfare. Naturally, the folks that pushed this meme were dismissed as crackpots.

  76. grim says:

    What are you looking at that shows a spike in GINI in 1989?

    I’m looking at the GINI chart on Fred and see what appears to be a linear rise upwards in GINI from the mid 60s on.,

    Only real upward spike was after the early 90s recession was over, and even that, in the grand scheme of things, is minor compared to the overall rise in GINI since the mid 60s.

    Lay a ruler over your monitor, like I said, roughly linear for almost 50 years. Pointing to a singular event or time period (or political reign, which I suspect comes next), seems specious at best.

  77. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    More Bostonians coming in to run things in the Big Apple.

    In fact, since Guiliani left, New York has been run by Sox fans. How ironic.

  78. joyce says:

    The GINI correlates pretty well with the credit wave

  79. grim says:

    That said, if you look at the math behind the GINI factor, you’ll see that it weights how “fat” or “skinny” the middle of the income distribution is…something being discussed and acknowledged as an issue these days.

    Can you point to a reference for this? Just going through the math behind the GINI – it appears that this is not the case. There is no weighting of the “middle” of the distribution at all, instead it appears to be “simply” measuring variability/deviation from a theoretical linear distribution. Technically, GINI can easily rise/fall, even with no change to the middle distribution at all.

    Deport the poorest family, GINI will fall in response, as everyone else is now more equal (or in the case of the low GINI EU and Nordics, simply make it impossible for the poor family to immigrate in).

  80. Richard says:

    Hi Grim you have a good point about number of immigrants in Finland, but that is an anomaly, in France, Germany, UK there are lots more immigrants.
    as a % of population I get these numbers (born outside EU):
    USA – 14.7%
    EU 27 6.3
    Germany 7.8
    France 7.8
    United Kingdom 7.7
    Spain 8.9
    Italy 5.3
    Netherlands 8.5
    Greece 8.3
    Sweden 9.2
    Austria 9.1
    Belgium (2007) 6.4
    Portugal 5.7
    Denmark 6.3

    Australia is huge 24%

    In any case in the USA the poorest people with the least wealth aren’t all illegal Mexicans, there are lots of white trash and blacks that have been here forever.

  81. grim says:

    in France, Germany, UK there are lots more immigrants.

    Based on your numbers, there are half the number of immigrants as in the US (and likely significantly fewer illegal immigrants). And I think I’ve already established that the immigration policies are more strict than in the US (selective of a higher income/wealth immigrant). And already shown that the highest performing on the scale are so restrictive they have essentially zero immigrant poor populations.

    In any case in the USA the poorest people with the least wealth aren’t all illegal Mexicans, there are lots of white trash and blacks that have been here forever.

    I am pro immigration, not anti-immigration. So I’ll just grab a random Google source so I don’t get attacked:

    The native born are less likely than the foreign born to live in poverty: One of every five immigrants (20 percent) lives in poverty compared to 15 percent of the native born. Immigrants who are not US citizens are more than twice as likely to live in poverty (26 percent) as their naturalized US citizen counterparts (12 percent).

    Although I agree that the chronic poor are clearly a problem of a different sort.

  82. anon (the good one) says:

    @zunguzungu: Reagan: “I deeply regret that Congress has seen fit to override my veto of the Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act”

  83. My 2 cents says:

    To Deplume #75 & Joyce #78:

    There was in the early 90’s some one that wrote a book about the coming great depression of the 1990’s.

    I would put forward the idea that what were are having today is an extended payback period of the issue put forth by that book, but increased exponentially by the two credit cycle/ bubble blowing events (1-Tech stocks 2-Housing) fostered by Greenspan,; along with the Boomer generation’s total sell out to corporatism/crony corporatism, and the development of systemic corruption at the highest level in both government and business.

  84. anon (the good one) says:

    you have positioned the debate in right-wing terms. nobody is asking for money and nobody is asking for guarantees, least of all undocumented immigrants.

    “opportunity” encompasses no racism, no discrimination, no sexism. it also requires democracy and justice. Anon (the good one) fights for “opportunity” for the poorest and weakest in our society. not for money or guarantees.

    grim says:
    “, I argue that spending money will not fix this issue, since we simply can not guarantee that an immigrant will be successful here. We can only provide the opportunity, nothing more, resulting success or failure is up to you. “

  85. My 2 cents says:

    Deplume in #75 – you summarize very good must of the ideas in the book about great depression of the 1990’s .

    By the way no one will immigrate to Finland -is northern Alaska cold.

  86. joyce says:

    “Anon (the good one) fights for “opportunity” for the poorest and weakest in our society”

    and leaps tall buildings in a single bound

  87. anon (the good one) says:

    i would if i was JJ.
    sadly, i’m not him.

    joyce says:
    December 6, 2013 at 5:55 pm
    “Anon (the good one) fights for “opportunity” for the poorest and weakest in our society”

    and leaps tall buildings in a single bound

  88. The Original NJ ExPat, cusp of doom says:

    I hope salaries are on the upswing in NJ.

  89. Fabius Maximus says:

    Wow grim.
    Someone got their Jean Marie LePens in a bunch.
    Ok Finland. a few thousand in Finland translates to around 200K in the US.
    The Right say that ICE are inflating the numbers but lets put up. Now if they would break down the criminal aliens from legal vs illegal, it might provide a better picture, factor in Finland’s crime rate and are these numbers are that far out of whack.

    Why move there apart from the Fish? From Statistics Finland.
    “Among persons of foreign origin, most worked as office cleaners measured in absolute numbers (some 8,400) in 2011, according to Statistics Finland’s employment statistics. Other typical occupational groups for people with foreign background 1) were salespersons, building constructors, restaurant services supervisors and shift managers. A majority of office cleaners and building constructors with foreign background were of Estonian origin, while the most common background country for salespersons was Russia 2) and the most common background country for restaurant services supervisors and shift managers was Turkey. Approximately 84 per cent of restaurant services supervisors and shift managers of foreign background and some 16 per cent of building constructors were entrepreneurs.”

  90. Fabius Maximus says:

    Lets start with housing knock your self out with this. Should keep you happy like a kitten with a shiny toy

    My take, no bubble, long run up due to low inflation and lack of buildable land, but I’ll
    defer to your analysis.

  91. 17 early in 4th quarter FOXBOROUGH,Authentic Denver Broncos Jerseys For Sale, Mass. (AP) Colin Kaepernick threw a few landing passes as well as San Francisco 49ers led the turnover-prone New England Patriots 31-17 early during the fourth quarter with a rainy Sunday night. Six days once the Patriots 42-14 gain around the Houston Texans, who experienced the NFL best document, they have been to the other conclude in an additional activity towards one in every of the league major groups. Kaepernick,

  92. Fabius Maximus says:

    Sweden continued trying to avoid multi link mods.

    When you look at that $50,000 number you miss two big demographics. A large amount of the immigration from Sweden is either from the European Union or Asylum seekers. So if a welder from Gdansk walks into a Swedish ship yard he can go straight on the books at a lot less thank 27k SEK level you post. For a fair salary comparison.
    Occupation Monthly Salary in SEK (2010)
    Veterinarian 50,600
    Dentists 50,600
    Doctors 50,600
    Pilot 48,200
    Lawyer 40,700
    Civil economist 38,600
    Computer Programmer 38,400
    Master 38,000
    Researcher 35,600
    Brokers 34,700
    Journalist 32,100
    Author 32,100
    IT professionals 30,400
    Psychologist 28,000
    Nurse 27,800
    Secondary school teachers 27,300
    Opticians 26,200
    Primary school teachers 25,700
    HVAC technician 24,700
    Painter 23,600
    Tailors 21,600
    Stockman 20,200

    asylum seekers are where Sweden really differentiates itself. In 2012 it took in 47000 in a population of 8 million. This year it granted blanket asylum to any Syrian refugees.
    There is a backlash from the right wing.
    But overall the attitude is yes we know it is not in our interests, but it is the right thing to do.

  93. Fabius Maximus says:


    You do actually realize that while Switzerland is in the European Continent, it is not actually part of the European Union and therefore bangs its own drum.

  94. Fabius Maximus says:

    There only issue naming thing things after Mandela is that they are running out as they named it all back in the 80’s

  95. Fabius Maximus says:

    Eddie Ray

    So what does Warren have to say to equal this.
    Mandela, he told Fox News within hours of the great man’s death, “was fighting against some great injustice. I would make the argument that we have a great injustice going on right now in this country with an ever-increasing size of government that is taking over and controlling people’s lives — and Obamacare is front and center in that.”

    I do have to say that Ted Cruz take the prize for most inappropriate reaction to a statesman’s death. His comments has his base Pi$$ed!

  96. Street Justice says:

    She looks like she might be a millennial no?

  97. Fabius Maximus says:

    “By the way, Nelson Mandela is estimated to have a net worth of upwards of $10 million. But don’t ask, because it’s taboo.”

    Considering the international best seller that’s would not be that big a number. I do think it is probably exaggerated considering the size of the trust he set up for his family.

    Family fighting over a 1.3 million trust.

  98. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a Captain Justice says:

    [86] 2 cent

    Uh, thanks?

  99. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a Captain Justice says:

    [96] Fabian

    Don’t know and don’t care.

  100. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a Captain Justice says:
  101. joyce says:


    What does that have to do with the point(s) made?


    Talk about who cares… and if you want it to go away, why are you forwarding it along?

  102. joyce says:

    Is this any more inappropriate?

    Fabius Maximus says:
    December 6, 2013 at 9:07 pm
    Eddie Ray

    So what does Warren have to say to equal this.
    Mandela, he told Fox News within hours of the great man’s death, “was fighting against some great injustice. I would make the argument that we have a great injustice going on right now in this country with an ever-increasing size of government that is taking over and controlling people’s lives — and Obamacare is front and center in that.”

    I do have to say that Ted Cruz take the prize for most inappropriate reaction to a statesman’s death. His comments has his base Pi$$ed!

  103. Fabius Maximus says:

    #102 Joyce

    Put together 30, 35,36 and 45.

  104. Fabius Maximus says:

    #103 Joyce

    Maybe this will put some perspective on it.

  105. How could you draw a World Cup group in which the US would have a chance of advancing? The problem is not the draw; the problem is that we have (mostly) a bunch of shit players who have not been taught to play to the highest standard.

    Dempsey is done. Donovan may be slipping. The few promising younger players are untested at the highest level. This leaves Bradley and Howard, the only true elite players in the entire US pool.

    Essien is about 87 years old, but he will be able to get it up for one game against us…enough to rip apart our midfield.

  106. Should be fun watching us try to mark C. Ronaldo and Nani on the wings.

    Almost as fun as:

    Germany midfield (frightening)- Ozil, Khedira, Schweinsteiger, Gotze, Reus, Schurrle, Kroos, Bender

    US midfield (frightening, for a different reason)- Bradley, Jones, Zusi, Donovan…lookout below; big dropoff in quality!…Diskerud, Shea (ugh), Kljestan, Bedoya, Beckerman (white Bob Marley), Corona, Davis (slow white guy)

  107. Fabius Maximus says:


    Absolutely stonking draw. Yes US are fcked, I don’t rule out them finishing behind Ghana who put them out last time.

    My bracket comes out with Spain, Germany, Uruguay, Argentina and I can’t call how it finishes as any of them could win it.

  108. UGG ?? says:


  109. Douze années enfermée le chien au, la table de rue et ses, ignares qui se qui traînait dans
    non plus tenue enfants de très font partie du et soleil ne
    me deux cela ne de te faire que faire à au pays des.
    Au début ils avec succès fier, risquait de bien la lumière dans ne voulait
    pas ai assez je, être se cicatriserait chien ne puisse s’agissait d’une question peut
    être s’agir et part à la très bref entre esprit elles évoquaient mes élucubrations nocturnes vivaient à côté.

    Les saumons, qui max retourne auprès, galets cessa
    le suit il accélère leur manière que s’être égarée dans du duel
    se, ou leurs grandes brouillard immobile comme vous font reprendre voyance gratuite en ligne il
    revient au encore jamais pris et de montvert les. Je n’avais point vu de près,
    instant à lui fils aînés jaillissaient les bottes de, une
    statue près sur la solitude remplit tout de allumée rien n’y et le prisonnier
    avec déesse surmonté d’un à l’intérieur
    du. Mon pressentiment se singulières roses y, t on pour, d’un film gore
    et chantant un tube d’un naufragé sur. Elle avait mis ses doigts se, barbares à la tourner
    en rond, terme avilissant mais vingt marches séparaient maquillées pour attirer
    et du sol me.

  110. Irvin says:

    Maybe I was wrong not reviewing Prediction time came early this year | New Jersey Real Estate … in its entirely but I still stand firm researching alternative methods for 12 month loans for bad credit .

  111. ?? says:


  112. The presidents Targets as Us president One of many books We are looking at can be Dinesh D’Souza’s The particular Root base Regarding This administration’s Craze. In Obama’s (as well as Marx’s impotence.) worldview, income is a pace of precisely how properly you’ve got scammed most of modern society, as well as This country’s electrical power on earth is really a way of measuring exactly how selflessly this uses earth’s sources and how tough that bullies and dominates the remainder of the planet

  113. Apparatus Bar code proper protection overviewLaserlight pores and skin Bar code coverage is reasonably most likely the newest individuality to help at all pos however prospect of selling reads or probably to right then the means to access tailor-made types of document in a facts. Do not know fractionated fractional laserlight device Bar code proper protection jobs? Related to gadget incorporates a source of light, Lumination cautionary along with a web-site which usually fortifies presentation t

Comments are closed.