LPS October Home Prices

Posted on December 31, 2013 by grim

From LPS:

LPS Home Price Index Report: October 2013 Transactions

This entry was posted in Housing Recovery, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

98 Responses to LPS October Home Prices

  1. grim says:
    December 31, 2013 at 6:41 am

    I thought everyone was leaving? From the Star Ledger:

    New Jersey is the 11th most-populous state in the country

    Census Bureau data released today shows that the population in New Jersey continued to rise.

    The figures released today estimated the Garden State’s population at 8,899,339 as of July 1, 2013. That’s an increase of about 31,600 from a year earlier. However, the latest figures show an increase of 107,445 residents from April 1, 2010.

    New Jersey is the 11th most-populous state in the country. California is No. 1 with a population of 38,332,521. Texas is No. 2 (26,448,193) followed by New York (19,651,127). The least-populous state in the country is Wyoming with a population of 582,658.

  2. grim says:
    December 31, 2013 at 6:43 am

    Surprised to see PA fare so poorly in comparison, from Philly.com:

    Census: Pa. population grows by 9k; N.J. by 31k

    The figures released today estimated Pennsylvania’s population at 12,773,801, as of July 1, 2013. That’s an increase of just more than 9,300 residents from a year earlier.

    The bureau put New Jersey’s population at 8,899,339, about 31,600 residents more than the previous year.

  3. Spine Snapper says:
    December 31, 2013 at 7:40 am

    It’s all going to hell. Prepare accordingly.

  4. Spine Snapper says:
    December 31, 2013 at 7:45 am

    We should have everyone on the record here as to whether they support the evisceration of the Amerikan middle class in order to grow the entitlement class and the corporate welfare class.

  5. Spine Snapper says:
    December 31, 2013 at 7:46 am

    When our middle class is completely monkeyhammered is when the wheels come off.

  6. charlie says:
    December 31, 2013 at 7:54 am

    Good tip on the Clos Julien cab….any other rec to wait for the end of times?

  7. grim says:
    December 31, 2013 at 8:12 am

    Is there an appropriate wine pairing for armageddon?

    Egri Bikaver perhaps?

    Or maybe a beer? Le Fin Du Monde is aptly named.

    Cocktail? Vieux Carre … with absinthe of course.

    Where is BC Bob? I suspect he might suggest a Dark and Stormy.

    Or … I could cook up some bathtub gin and we can do a few rounds of Last Words.

    Joke is on the banksters, no way they’ll drink all their Lafite.

  8. Street Justice says:
    December 31, 2013 at 8:24 am

    Just the middle class. Poor and rich can afford to have kids.

    grim says:
    December 31, 2013 at 6:41 am
    I thought everyone was leaving? From the Star Ledger:

    New Jersey is the 11th most-populous state in the country

  9. grim says:
    December 31, 2013 at 8:25 am

    From Marketwatch:

    Loans Expand, and Fees Follow

    Traditionally, this insurance is sold to buyers who make small down payments, typically less than 20%, and is designed to protect lenders if a borrower defaults. The policies were widely used during the housing boom, but insurers scaled back amid rising foreclosures. Demand for the product plummeted when banks ended low down-payment programs for most borrowers.

    But now, as home values are rising and banks are experimenting with looser lending standards, private insurers are preparing a comeback. They are especially interested in private jumbo loans, which exceed $417,000 in most of the country and $625,500 in pricier markets. To appeal to wealthy borrowers, insurers are lowering costs and increasing the size of mortgages they will cover.

    In December, Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corp., a private-mortgage insurer, increased the maximum mortgage it will insure from $750,000 to $850,000. Genworth Mortgage Insurance also raised its cap to the same level from $625,500 in October. Both insurers say they will consider even larger loans on a case-by-case basis. Similarly, United Guaranty, a subsidiary of AIG, which insures mortgages of up to $850,000, says it introduced a limited program this year for loans of up to $1 million. Another insurer, Radian Group says it may consider raising its $850,000 cap.

    The moves come as the jumbo-mortgage market heats up. Private jumbo originations are on pace to hit the highest level since 2007, and some lenders are lowering down-payment requirements to attract more borrowers.

  10. grim says:
    December 31, 2013 at 8:29 am

    Wow, forgot today is Case Shiller day.

  11. grim says:
    December 31, 2013 at 8:36 am

    8 – What is even more interesting is that NJ gained more on a percentage basis than PA despite the fact that NJ’s population density is more than 4x that of PA. You might think that PA would have an easier time adding population simply because they’ve got the room for it. Suppose that urban infill is the wild card that allows for even higher population densities.

  12. 1987 Condo says:
    December 31, 2013 at 8:41 am

    #1..we’ll be getting 2 more, my nephew and new wife currently living on SI are looking at Hoboken, easier commute to NYC..no kids…..affordable “city life”…..

  13. grim says:
    December 31, 2013 at 9:02 am

    Case Shiller comes in very strong

  14. grim says:
    December 31, 2013 at 9:12 am

    From CNBC:

    US home prices post strong annual gain: S&P/Case-Shiller

    U.S. single-family home prices rose less than expected in October but posted their strongest annualized gain in more than seven years, a closely watched survey said on Tuesday.

    The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.2 percent in October on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, below economists’ expectation of a 0.7 percent gain. Prices rose 0.7 percent in September.

    On a seasonally-adjusted basis, prices were up 1 percent.

    Compared to a year earlier, prices were up 13.6 percent, beating expectations of 13 percent and marking the strongest gain since February 2006, when the increase was 13.8 percent.

    Housing prices have been rising since early 2012, and a rebound in the sector has helped the U.S. recovery gain steam.

    But the more subdued monthly gains “show we are living on borrowed time and the boom is fading,” David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement.

    “The key economic question facing housing is the Fed’s future course to scale back quantitative easing and how this will affect mortgage rates,” he said.

  15. JJ says:
    December 31, 2013 at 9:18 am

    When the SI folks start moving in it is a bubble.

    1987 Condo says:
    December 31, 2013 at 8:41 am

    #1..we’ll be getting 2 more, my nephew and new wife currently living on SI are looking at Hoboken, easier commute to NYC..no kids…..affordable “city life”…..

  16. grim says:
    December 31, 2013 at 9:20 am

    From Marketwatch:

    Case-Shiller: Home prices up, but boom fading

    U.S. home prices remained on a solid upward trend in October, according to a report released Tuesday, but price gains may not be as strong in 2014.

    The home-price index covering 10 major U.S. cities increased 13.6% in the year ended in October, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price report. The 20-city price index also increased 13.6%, close to the 13.7% advance expected by economists.

    Both increases are the best since February 2006, the report said.

    On an unadjusted basis, both the 10-city and 20-city indexes increased 0.2% in October from September. Seasonally adjusted, the gain for both composites was 1.0%.

  17. grim says:
    December 31, 2013 at 9:48 am

    Seems lots of folks trying to pull the index data this morning, Case Shiller website is dead.

  19. grim says:
    December 31, 2013 at 10:13 am

    S&P Case Shiller NY Metro Tiered Index (SA)

    Low Tier (Under $276152)
    Trough – Apr 2012
    Up from Trough – 9.0%

    Mid Tier ($276152 – $445762)
    Trough – Feb 2012
    Up from Trough – 7.6%

    High Tier (Over $445762)
    Trough – April 2012
    Up from Trough – 5.6%

    Overall Market
    Trough – Mar 2012
    Up from Trough – 5.8%

  20. grim says:
    December 31, 2013 at 10:14 am

    What bubble were we talking about again? We’re currently sitting at a 4-5% annual increase from 2000 (high tier is closer to 4, low tier closer to 5). Barely 2% per year increase once you factor in inflation.

  21. Juice Box says:
    December 31, 2013 at 10:20 am

    re: S&P/Case Shiller

    Where is my HELOC? I need to take a vacation on the house!

    Home Equity Borrowing is UP!!!!!

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=quy

  22. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a Captain Justice says:
    December 31, 2013 at 10:26 am

    [11] grim,

    Population stats are pretty squishy, mostly move stats. births are tracked better. To back test, I suppose you look at job creation. Did NJ add jobs in the period? Did PA shed jobs? Any correlation would be rough but useful.

    I do think that PA has an older population. That may account as well. More of us dying off than are replaced.

  23. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a Captain Justice says:
    December 31, 2013 at 10:35 am

    [138][prior thread] Phoenix

    No need to waste time on face paint. I’m a equal opportunity curmudgeon.

    Besides, it’s easier to get a clear head shot with a brighter target.

  24. Juice Box says:
    December 31, 2013 at 11:05 am

    I wonder how this will effect short sales? Tax breaks for underwater principal forgiveness mortgage modifications ends today. Will the underwater homeowners simply now go straight into foreclosure?

    Any type of principal forgiveness mortgage modifications will now be treated as income for tax purposes including forgiven mortgage debt in the event of a short sale, unless the next session of Congress pass new legislation.

  25. grim says:
    December 31, 2013 at 11:10 am

    24 – It will pass retroactively – couple of tear jerkers about kicking the poor while they are down is at it’ll take. We’ll hear something about it going into the November elections, no doubt.

  26. Juice Box says:
    December 31, 2013 at 11:32 am

    re: # 25 – maybe it will just be a minor scuffle however this is an election year. The original legislation came from Rep Charles Wrangel and the left back when in 2007? The debate over principal forgiveness comes into play again this year as both sides will attempt curry favor with the voters. Mel Watt is for principal forgiveness and the Republicans generally oppose it. Who doesn’t expect FHFA to announce a new large mortgage debt forgiveness program? HAMP mods apparently failed 1/3rd of the time so there has to be at least a million or so voters out there looking for another handout.

  27. Fast Eddie says:
    December 31, 2013 at 11:43 am

    Barely 2% per year increase once you factor in inflation.

    Inflation has been dead for over a decade. There is no indication that it is coming back soon. Therefore, based on a long term trend of 3.5% appreciation, we still have another 10% to 12% drop in prices ahead of us. Either that or inflation will finally kick in and house prices will remain stagnant for the next 5 to 7 years while inflation evens the score. And, the investors are done picking the bones for now. That’s why we’re seeing the dead cat bounce beginning to stall.

  28. grim says:
    December 31, 2013 at 11:54 am

    Inflation has been dead for over a decade.

    How do you figure?

    2000 – 3.4
    2001 – 2.8
    2002 – 1.6
    2003 – 2.3
    2004 – 2.7
    2005 – 3.4
    2006 – 3.2
    2007 – 2.8
    2008 – 3.8
    2009 – -0.4 <- Only year with what would be considered little change / no inflation 2010 - 1.6 2011 - 3.2 2012 - 2.1 2013 - 1.5% (est) Average - ~2.5% per year

  29. Spine Snapper says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:09 pm

    charlie (6)-

    Berkshire Mountain Troegenator Cask Bourbon. Great to sip while you clean your AK.

  30. Spine Snapper says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:11 pm

    Straight wormwood old school absinthe is the end of the world drink.

  31. unbelievable says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:17 pm

    Case Shiller comes in very strong

    hahaha grim the skill strikes again

    CaseShiller YOY (the only number to look at-remember shill) is decreasing and about to become negative but otherwise is very strong

  32. Michael says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:19 pm

    27- You are kidding me with the no inflation statement, right? At my local pizza shop, one topping now costs 2 dollars. You are telling me it cost 2 dollars for a topping of pizza 10 years ago? Inflation is always at play.

  33. unbelievable says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:20 pm

    Yesterday grim the skill went too far.

    Called me and others anti-american. Why? because we called this “recovery” a bubble. Because we would like to see housing affordable and inline with incomes.

  34. Michael says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:24 pm

    Have you been to the supermarket lately? You are seriously going to tell me there is no indication that inflation is coming? It’s already here. The biggest indicator is the rise of minimum wage starting tomorrow. Wait till the rates rise, then you will see some major inflation. Why do you think it’s pointless to worry about govt debt? It always gets washed out by inflation, on purpose nonetheless. Like I said, go grab a loan while the rates are low and have inflation take out your loan for you.

  35. unbelievable says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:25 pm

    I guess shilling, causing bubbles, depressing incomes and condemning younger generations to impoverished life is genuinely patriotic.

  36. Michael says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:25 pm

    33- you do understand that wage inflation is coming right? If the people at the lowest part of the job scale are seeing it through the rise of minimum wage, it’s only a matter of time before it affects everyone.

  37. Fast Eddie says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:26 pm

    28 – So, you’re saying inflation is up 2.5% per year? And the median salary is flat for a decade (it’s actually down YOY). So, that means a 100K salary in 2002 is the equivalent of 77K today (actually less). And over that span of time houses have increased 4% to 5% considering the correction. And, property taxes continue to climb insulated by the extortion monopoly, adding insult to injury. It looks like further confirmation that the housing market is controlled by professional scammers and con artists.

  38. Fast Eddie says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:29 pm

    Michael,

    What’s 187% of 100? Now take 20% of that sum. It’s not 167, is it? Also, if the price of my house dropped 20% from peak, that means my taxes are going to drop 20% as well. Right? Right? I said RIGHT?

  39. Fast Eddie says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:30 pm

    you do understand that wage inflation is coming right?

    LMAO!!! That’s a good one. Tap your heels together 3 times while you say that one.

  40. unbelievable says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:31 pm

    Yeah barely 2% per year for 13 years is 30%increase OVER inflation. That’s the definition of bubble.

    ———————————————
    What bubble were we talking about again? We’re currently sitting at a 4-5% annual increase from 2000 (high tier is closer to 4, low tier closer to 5). Barely 2% per year increase once you factor in inflation.

  41. Michael says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:31 pm

    35- you are no different than the people calling grim crazy when he said housing was in a bubble. The floor has already been hit in late 2011/early 2012.

  42. Fast Eddie says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:34 pm

    Michael, here’s your wage inflation (cough…):

    Historical Real Median Family Income for New Jersey

    Yr/U.S./New Jersey

    2012 $62,527 $84,442
    2011 $62,739 $83,973
    2010 $63,827 $86,803
    2009 $65,387 $89,257
    2008 $67,574 $91,457
    2007 $67,742 $90,610
    2006 $66,650 $88,684
    2005 $65,666 $88,576

  43. Michael says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:36 pm

    39- please explain to me why you think there is no inflation and that we are far from seeing any indication of it coming. I would love to hear this.

  44. unbelievable says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:37 pm

    Guys

    shilling is a daily job. It doesn’t matter what we argued or what numbers we showed yesterday. Today we start anew. More reality distortion more number spinning for the new readers.

  45. Fast Eddie says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:38 pm

    39- please explain to me why you think there is no inflation and that we are far from seeing any indication of it coming. I would love to hear this.

    Open your eyes and look at my previous post. If you need help with the big words, let me know.

  46. Michael says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:41 pm

    42- because the unemployment rate was high. Can’t use those #s as a basis.

  47. Spine Snapper says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:41 pm

    gary (39)-

    Fcuktard Michael thinks you can have wage inflation in the midst of the biggest period of global wage arbitrage in history.

    Problem is, Yellen prolly thinks the same thing.

  48. Spine Snapper says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:41 pm

    Let’s not even get into the ascent of the robots…

  49. Michael says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:42 pm

    42- you do realize that your avg’s correlate exactly with the unemployment rate. Maybe that’s why it starts going down in 2009.

  50. Fast Eddie says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:44 pm

    42- because the unemployment rate was high. Can’t use those #s as a basis.

    Sure, anything you say. How far underwater are you? And you never answered my question: my taxes are now going down 20%, right?

  51. Spine Snapper says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:44 pm

    I’m fairly certain that whatever Michael does, he can be replaced by a robot.

    Or a hamster on a treadmill.

  52. grim says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:46 pm

    What’s my motive to shill? What do I stand to gain?

  53. Michael says:
    December 31, 2013 at 12:51 pm

    Why don’t you answer your own question. If your house indeed lost 20% in value, then go fight with your town tax dept.

    “Sure, anything you say. How far underwater are you? And you never answered my question: my taxes are now going down 20%, right?”

  54. JJ says:
    December 31, 2013 at 1:06 pm

    I grieve my taxes so much they hate me at the assessors office.

  55. Juice Box says:
    December 31, 2013 at 1:28 pm

    Here are some more of my predictions for 2014

    S&P 500 – 2300
    S&P/Case-Shiller +4% yoy
    Brent Crude – $130 bbl
    GDP +4%
    10 year Treasury Bond 3.50%

    Other calls

    SNAP 50 mil +
    Elections – Republicans keep House, Dems keep Senate
    Obama Care – 5 million signups by April
    Superbowl – Broncos vs Seahawks with Broncos winning by 7
    Vigoda lives

  56. JJ says:
    December 31, 2013 at 1:44 pm

    I like them all but I think oil is range bound between 100-115 all year and wont get near 130

    Juice Box says:
    December 31, 2013 at 1:28 pm

    Here are some more of my predictions for 2014

    S&P 500 – 2300
    S&P/Case-Shiller +4% yoy
    Brent Crude – $130 bbl
    GDP +4%
    10 year Treasury Bond 3.50%

    Other calls

    SNAP 50 mil +
    Elections – Republicans keep House, Dems keep Senate
    Obama Care – 5 million signups by April
    Superbowl – Broncos vs Seahawks with Broncos winning by 7
    Vigoda lives

  57. Juice Box says:
    December 31, 2013 at 2:19 pm

    re: # 57 – My Brent call is based production which is virtually flat and even declining. Peak cheap oil maybe here for good by 2015 and all signs show the cost of extraction is going up especially offshore. I could adjust $10 a barrel down, but I think the boogeyman of oil running out will be back in the headlines by the end of 2014.

  58. unbelievable says:
    December 31, 2013 at 2:20 pm

    62 grim the shill

    many blogs rode the 2005-08 “bubble and crash” out of obscurity only to legitimize themselves as “objective”, patriotic, pro-american, pro-fed-policies, “optimistic”, “believing the dream” by SHILLING-see calculated risk-for personal and professional reasons

    you are no exception

  59. Juice Box says:
    December 31, 2013 at 2:30 pm

    re: # 59 – Drink some of Grim’s Poteen and let us know what you think then about his shill or should I say swill.

  60. grim says:
    December 31, 2013 at 2:43 pm

    Actually, I’d rather shill whiskey…

    Silk City Distillers – Keep an eye out

    Running this blog is a massive time and money sink – I get very little in the way of donations towards hosting these days, and this site still gets a level of traffic that requires me to pay $75/mo for virtual server hosting with enough capacity to not crash all the time (we still grind to a halt pretty regularly). Figure $900/yr in hosting, another couple of bucks for domain registrations, etc. I think I did about $150 in donations in the last year.

    So it’s cost me about $700-800 to give you a pedestal to rag on me as the shill. This all assumes that my time is worthless, of course. Blog still takes up an hour of my day, every day, so assuming minimum wage, I’m about $4,000 in the hole every year.

    Add in the MLS and association fees that allow me to post numbers, that’s an easy $750 a year. That’s getting close to $5k a year now.

    What, exactly, do I stand to gain?

  61. Spine Snapper says:
    December 31, 2013 at 2:48 pm

    If anyone is interested, I’ve started a Bitcoin assassination market on unbelievable.

    https://assmkedzgorodn7o.onion.lu/

  62. Spine Snapper says:
    December 31, 2013 at 2:54 pm

    Perhaps the assclown, unbelievable, could explain to us why someone who runs a blog on his own dime- and has refused for years to monetize it (in the face of probably dozens of lucrative offers)- deserves to be categorized as a shill.

  63. JJ says:
    December 31, 2013 at 2:54 pm

    While living in Los Angeles, I’d jog three to five miles a day. One morning jogging, my agent calls about a new series called Barney Miller, saying, “Go there at once.”
    Well, I was tired and exhausted … I must have run five miles that morning. I said. “I have to go home and take a shower.”
    “No, no, no. go right now to Studio City, you’re very right for it, they know you from The Godfather, they want to see you.”
    “With my shorts?”
    “Go”
    Danny Arnold and Ted Flicker, the producers, look at me, I look at them, they look at me again. “You look tired.”
    “Of course I’m tired, I jogged five miles this morning, I’m exhausted.”
    “Yeah, yeah, tell me, you look like you have hemorrhoids.”
    “What are you, a doctor or a producer?”[10]

    — Abe Vigoda, quoted in Louis Zorich’s What Have You Done?: The Inside Stories of Auditioning—from the Ridiculous to the Sublime (2009)

  64. Spine Snapper says:
    December 31, 2013 at 2:57 pm

    I’ll double the Bitcoin bounty to anyone who brings me unbelievable’s head…with all of his airways stuffed full of coral.

  65. Charlie says:
    December 31, 2013 at 4:52 pm

    SS: Berkshires Distillery, uh? Never heard, shall try…On other topics, Mr K passed away recently, as you may have heard….

  66. Fabius Maximus says:
    December 31, 2013 at 5:46 pm

    #7 Grim

    Armageddon will be held indoors this year. I was given a bottle of Old Kruprnik yesterday. Any suggestions what to pair it with?

  67. unbelievable says:
    December 31, 2013 at 5:55 pm

    Grim: What, exactly, do I stand to gain?

    Can think dozens of ways to benefit from such a high traffic blog.
    Show us your last three years tax reports and we will find out.

  68. Fabius Maximus says:
    December 31, 2013 at 6:04 pm

    Fast Eddie,

    I found the good explanation for your house search.
    Exhibit A, a 1950s CrpShack sold for $410K on a double yellow road. http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/864-Westwood-Ave_Rivervale_NJ_07675_M66100-28033?source=web

    Same house today.
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/77232795@N08/11674603454/

    All your complaining about the NNJ market always misses the big point. “The market is what the market is” The tulips may cost an astronomical price that can’t possibly be supported, but if you want one, that’s the price you are going to have pay.

  69. joyce says:
    December 31, 2013 at 6:32 pm

    69
    Comrade, Chicagofinance, others,

    Please reiterate Fabius’s line back at him whenever he advocates for the countless govt market interventions that he does all the time.

  70. LoveNJ says:
    December 31, 2013 at 7:43 pm

    #69.
    Same thing happening in my town since 2011. Any house sitting on > 1/2 acre and asking price less than 1 million, you have to compete with builders. They would level the place and 9 months later, a 2~3 or more million dollars house was up. I do not know the reason why, but seeing about 20 such houses around me in last few years. I feel having a great deal having kids in public school.

  71. Juice Box says:
    December 31, 2013 at 7:44 pm

    Happy New Year to all!

  72. Fabius Maximus says:
    December 31, 2013 at 8:12 pm

    #70 Joyce

    What are all these “countless govt market interventions ” I am advocating for that go against market principles. Gun Control hardly. Elimination of Mortgage interest Tax relief, that’s the removal of an intervention. Healthcare Reform? The market served me up a nice policy for next year. For the first time in a decade, my costs are actually going down.

  73. Sima says:
    December 31, 2013 at 8:14 pm

    Grim – ignore the nasty troll ‘unbelievable’.
    I have enjoyed your blog for years. It was the ONLY place where the NJ real estate bubble and coming crash was predicted and discussed.
    I think that the people commenting represent an interesting cross-section from all ends of the political spectrum.
    Thanks for all your work!

  74. The Original NJ ExPat, cusp of doom says:
    December 31, 2013 at 9:45 pm

    My comments on comments on crude prices:

    1. Nobody I know has actually taken delivery on a single barrel of crude oil, so opinions on the price of crude oil are just opinions on what Yahoo finance will show you the price is.
    2. If you look at a chart, crude oil “prices” conspicuously detached from the oil products we actually do buy, heating oil and gasoline, in March of 2009. Crude oil “prices” have been a sine wave averaging flatline since then while heating oil has a positive uptrend and gasoline an even steeper uptrend.
    3. If you have never bought an ounce of gold in recent times, you probably don’t know what the cost is to buy an ounce of gold. I would say that applies tenfold for a barrel of crude oil.

  75. The Original NJ ExPat, cusp of doom says:
    December 31, 2013 at 10:09 pm

    LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) -NYSE now a solid double since I thrice recommended it. Even at double the price, it’s still a 3% dividend. I can’t find a reason to sell it, so as of now, I won’t. It is also a better inflation hedge than RE, let’s see if Michael can tell us why.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    May 4, 2012 at 11:03 am
    My new portfolio favorite LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB), a specialty chemical company that is making out like a bandit due to the low price of Natural Gas. 2.3% yield now, quite a bit higher when I bought a couple months ago.

  76. Essex says:
    January 1, 2014 at 6:59 am

    Here’s to the best Real Estate Blog! Bummed out though. My folk FL property has rebounded in value and ours in NJ just sits there. Thanks Christie. Here’s the only blog in existence that speaks to the locals in NJ and cuts through the copious b.s. posted by mouth breathers on places like nj.com…..etc.

  77. Fast Eddie says:
    January 1, 2014 at 7:41 am

    Fabius,

    …but if you want one, that’s the price you are going to have to pay.

    Exactly. And that’s what I keep telling myself. If they want my house, they’re going to have to pay… and pay they will.

  78. Njescapee says:
    January 1, 2014 at 8:33 am

    Happy 2014!

    Gonna be a balmy 82 degrees today.

  79. Michael says:
    January 1, 2014 at 11:40 am

    78- Of course, when you are buying, you want a 50% discount. When you are selling, you want top dollar. I love your type. Sad part, so many people out there like you. Want the best of both worlds.

  80. Michael says:
    January 1, 2014 at 11:42 am

    80- btw, your type constantly cry about their property taxes as they rise but cheer when they sell their house for 400,000 more than they paid for it.

  81. Fast Eddie says:
    January 1, 2014 at 12:43 pm

    Michael,

    Don’t hate the playa, etc. I’ve come over to your side, I’m playing your game now. If someone is gonna fund my move, then I have no complaints. I’m transferring one piece of paper for the other. If you can’t afford to buy my house, move to Indiana. And you know I’m going to try and take full advantage of someone on the other side of the transaction. Why shouldn’t I? This is the way these types of transactions are conducted. This is the new normal.

  82. chicagofinance says:
    January 1, 2014 at 12:48 pm

    Yes. I want to enjoy this board and I want you to stop posting.

    Michael says:
    January 1, 2014 at 11:40 am
    I love your type. Sad part, so many people out there like you. Want the best of both worlds.

  83. chicagofinance says:
    January 1, 2014 at 12:51 pm

    Prediction in 1H2014…..due to a sh!tload of cap gains and people being stunned by their tax returns, there will be a steady flow of money out of the stock market reaching a crescendo around April 1. However, the eye popping headlines and negative returns on fixed income will sucker a bunch of retail money into equities over the next few weeks. So right around March 1-ish we could get a top tick……

    …..that is what I see at January 1st…..the news flow is going to dominate though, so while this effect is going to be embedded into returns, it may not rise to the point of dominating the indeces…….FWIW

  84. Spine Snapper says:
    January 1, 2014 at 3:20 pm

    God, what a sad sack of shit michael is.

  85. The Original NJ ExPat, cusp of doom says:
    January 1, 2014 at 3:58 pm

    Any help appreciated (except Michael):

    I know someone who kind of needs a 1BR Montclair rental, looking to move in 2-3 months. She’s a widow, mid-70’s, and has been a renter in Montclair for over 20 years(two places). Her and her husband actually were a decade ahead of good timing, they sold their house in Morris County in the mid-90’s to retire as renters in Montclair for the duration. Husband died about 5 or 6 years ago and now the owner of the condo she has been renting is selling the unit she’s rented for about the last 10 years. Ideally she’s looking for something ground level in Montclair (not disabled, but doesn’t want to be high up in an apartment building and doesn’t want to do stairs either). Good credit, good everything, would love something near the library (I should know where that is, but I don’t). I think she’s paying around $1300 month now.

    One of my best friends living in FL, It’s his mom (I don’t know why she won’t move down there!).

  86. The Original NJ ExPat, cusp of doom says:
    January 1, 2014 at 5:29 pm

    LOL. Here’s some fun NJ nostalgia: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PomA7lvX3o

  87. The Original NJ ExPat, cusp of doom says:
    January 1, 2014 at 5:41 pm

    2001 followup: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoUkUiIgGvI

  88. The Original NJ ExPat, cusp of doom says:
    January 1, 2014 at 5:49 pm

    2011:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rixHSACe3CU

  89. Spine Snapper says:
    January 1, 2014 at 7:48 pm

    gluteus (72)-

    Prima facie evidence that you are a complete sucker and nanny state lickspittle:

    “Healthcare Reform? The market served me up a nice policy for next year. For the first time in a decade, my costs are actually going down.”

  90. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a Captain Justice says:
    January 1, 2014 at 8:58 pm

    At a function today, I met a Guy in the benefits business. We discussed Obamacare and all the issues it was causing in his business. He then related this story.

    His childhood friend (who he named) is a high ranking insurance official in state government (can’t say which state but it is VERY pro-Obamacare). When Obamacare was starting to roll out, this official and his department had extensive conversations with the governor and with the HHS about the problems it would cause and the cost increase estimates, which were substantial. Both the governor and the feds told them in no uncertain terms that they should say and do nothing. The official and his staff protested strenuously because they were responsible for regulating insurance companies and the states own program, and they felt duty-bound to report information openly to their constituent companies and voters but the admonitions from the feds and Gov. kept coming. The governor’s office (and this governor is extremely close to Obama) also purportedly told them to lower their cost increase estimates from 40% to 10%.

    If I were to reveal the insurance official, it would be clear that he is very much pro Obamacare, but he said that they felt heavily pressured to stay quiet about all the problems Obamacare would cause in that state. Naturally, he carried the governors water for him, but was very discomfited by the heavy pressure that he got and the fact that they were essentially prevented from doing their jobs. So much so that he bitched to the guy who told me this story.

    For what it’s worth, this is consistent with reports from insurance company officials who felt pressured to stay quiet about the problems Obamacare would cause, and consistent with the manner in which the administration handles other controversial topics.

    Hope and Change!

  91. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a Captain Justice says:
    January 2, 2014 at 12:33 am

    I was in a home depot yesterday to pick up some things for projects, and one of the things on my list was CFL or LED bulbs. I have a lot of fixtures and wanted to cut down on my electric bills.

    I went over to the bulb aisle to see if anything was on sale. There wasn’t, and I noticed that the rack space where incandescent bulbs would ordinarily be was almost completely cleared out. There were only a few boxes of private label incandescents left on the shelf in a gaping space that probably held thousands of boxes once.

    I didn’t go there to get incandescent bulbs. But yeah, I bought a few boxes.

  92. Statler Waldorf says:
    January 2, 2014 at 4:19 am

    Recent closings (past 90 days) below; 11 out of 12 properties sold above asking price.

    MLS # / Address / List Price / Sale Price
    —————————————————————-
    2994210 1 Woodstone Circle $996,995 $1,043,866
    2940042 3 Woodstone Circle $976,995 $999,954
    3084082 5 Woodstone Circle $955,995 $1,101,750
    3084522 6 Woodstone Circle $1,239,995 $1,239,995
    3084056 7 Woodstone Circle $1,025,065 $1,104,374
    3055408 8 Woodstone Circle $1,269,995 $1,259,995
    3046332 25 Woodstone Circle $1,344,995 $1,344,995
    2961996 27 Woodstone Circle $1,247,495 $1,285,283
    3084052 29 Woodstone Circle $1,267,495 $1,292,370
    3004944 31 Woodstone Circle $1,282,495 $1,324,544
    3084515 33 Woodstone Cicle $1,257,495 $1,292,767
    3086741 35 Woodstone Circle $1,281,495 $1,233,799

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