What if the millennials actually want to own?

Posted on May 7, 2014 by grim

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics. Bookmark the permalink.

118 Responses to What if the millennials actually want to own?

  2. grim says:
    May 7, 2014 at 7:01 am

    1 – Hope that a million dollars is enough to retire on in 50 years (I suspect not).

  3. Juice Box says:
    May 7, 2014 at 7:18 am

    A million dollars now is not enough.

  4. anon (the good one) says:
    May 7, 2014 at 7:33 am

    @BloombergNews:
    Price records shatter as the top earners bid nine-digits for prime real estate:
    http://t.co/5KOY5sbCaL http://t.co/RRm9ekrS4C

  5. Michael says:
    May 7, 2014 at 8:10 am

    You hang out with fast eddie? You both seem to like focusing on grammatical mistakes and errors, instead of focusing on the main point of the passage. I don’t have time to check for grammatical mistakes and errors. I wish I could type quickly without making mistakes, but unfortunately, I’m not perfect.

    Answer my question:

    You know that the baby boomers are the biggest segment of our population right? So why would they not AFFECT the economy with their spending habits?

    chicagofinance says:
    May 6, 2014 at 10:58 pm
    To respond to you directly……effect is a noun, affect is a verb

    Michael says:
    May 6, 2014 at 5:23 pm
    Chi- you know that the baby boomers are the biggest segment of our population right? So why would they not effect the economy with their spending habits? And believe me, there are spending patterns based on what age you are. 40′s and 50′s are the highest spending years of your life based on the stats.

  6. anon (the good one) says:
    May 7, 2014 at 8:37 am

    the irony is that neither of the two is a particularly good writer

  7. Michael says:
    May 7, 2014 at 9:05 am

    Lol…. love how this guy describes “finance professionals”. Sad part, I wish he was wrong.

    “As an investor, you must recognize the monsters that populate the financial industry. They’re very talented chameleons; they don’t look like monsters; rather, they appear in the guise of a cousin or an old college friend. They are also self-deluded monsters; most “finance professionals” don’t even realize that they’re moral cripples, since in order to function they’ve had to tell themselves a story about how they’re really helping their customers. But even if they’re able to fool others and often themselves as well, make sure they don’t fool you.”

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/young-people-rich-slowly-175016277.html

  8. grim says:
    May 7, 2014 at 9:12 am

    7 – Funny, that definition works equally as well for politicians.

  9. chicagofinance says:
    May 7, 2014 at 9:22 am

    You own a ten year old car with 150,000 miles on it. It requires premium gas so the engine has the right power. You fill it with 87 and it responds lethargically. Your analysis states…..man this engine is going, I need a new car…..

    Michael says:
    May 7, 2014 at 8:10 am
    Answer my question:
    You know that the baby boomers are the biggest segment of our population right? So why would they not AFFECT the economy with their spending habits?

  10. chicagofinance says:
    May 7, 2014 at 9:24 am

    The irony is that you don’t write anything, you just cut and paste Tweets…….and the overall value of that activity can be seen demonstrated by this graph……
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TWTR+Interactive#symbol=TWTR;range=5d

    anon (the good one) says:
    May 7, 2014 at 8:37 am
    the irony is that neither of the two is a particularly good writer

  11. Michael says:
    May 7, 2014 at 9:33 am

    Anyone research this theory? I feel like our govt is following this policy.

    “Modern Monetary Theory (MMT or Modern Money Theory), also known as neochartalism, is a descriptive economic theory that details the procedures and consequences of using government-issued tokens as the unit of money, i.e., fiat money. According to Modern Monetary Theory, “governments with the power to issue their own currency are always solvent, and can afford to buy anything for sale in their domestic unit of account even though they may face inflationary and political constraints”.[1]”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory

  12. Michael says:
    May 7, 2014 at 9:41 am

    Lol….so true
    grim says:
    May 7, 2014 at 9:12 am
    7 – Funny, that definition works equally as well for politicians.

  13. Fast Eddie says:
    May 7, 2014 at 9:49 am

    The original price was 599K, listed a month ago and they decided to raise it to 609K. Maybe it’s me; maybe I’m a little f.ucked up. If the joint didn’t sell at 599K, how is it going to sell at 609K? It’s possible that they initially got a number of bids and decided to push the envelope?

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1410750&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  14. JJ says:
    May 7, 2014 at 10:04 am

    Chifi, only munis with a glimmer of yield are hospital bonds. Junk is stretched like a year old rubber band and will either break or pop back, Trups only junkiest has yield and common stocks it is sell in May and go away.

    Sadly housing is also sell in May and go away.

    However, I was reading something interesting, that Nov 2012 right after Sandy a record number of car leases were signed in tri-state areas. Folks needed new cars asap and folks were hoarding cash instead of buying they leased.

    So folks Nov 2015 is time to hit the car auction. And the cars are all hitting the market between Nov 15 and Jan 2016 in the slow period.

  15. JJ says:
    May 7, 2014 at 10:07 am

    Jersey alwas puts safe, quiet neighborhood, award winning schools and great block etc in the listsings in the blue chip town and then always goes on about the home security systems.

    Kinda like the landlord says it is a safe block and every car on block has a car alarm, the club on streering wheel and a benzi box

  16. Michael says:
    May 7, 2014 at 10:14 am

    I can see what you are saying. Clot said something similar. Said demographics were a symptom, not a cause.

    I just feel like the baby boomers were the cause of the housing bubble. Loose lending standards and low rates helped extend the bubble and take it to new heights from 2003 on, but the baby boomers started the bubble.

    How? The baby boomers were in peak earning years in their 40’s and 50’s. They were upgrading to bigger homes, hence all the mc-mansions. Their spending pattern ignited the bubble, so much money flowed into real estate, that gains became out of control. Everyone else saw these gains, wanted a piece, and with the advent of low rate and 0 down loans, the bubble went on it’s journey to levels unheard of.

    chicagofinance says:
    May 7, 2014 at 9:22 am
    You own a ten year old car with 150,000 miles on it. It requires premium gas so the engine has the right power. You fill it with 87 and it responds lethargically. Your analysis states…..man this engine is going, I need a new car…..

  17. Fast Eddie says:
    May 7, 2014 at 10:20 am

    JJ [15],

    It’s a sales pitch, you know that. Any buyer actively talking to a house sales person has already set their sights on wanting to buy. They’re already 75% of the way there. The house sales person just needs to keep telling them what they want to hear until the transaction is sealed.

  18. Libturd in the City says:
    May 7, 2014 at 10:34 am

    “I just feel like the baby boomers were the cause of the housing bubble”

    The housing bubble doesn’t happen without easy credit. It’s the same with the college loan bubble. Montclair State has more than doubled in size in the last 20 years and the amount of student housing has most likely tripled.

    Are we going to blame this on Wall Street and the Baby Boomers too?

    The housing bubble occurred because lending standards were eliminated. This decision was really non-partisan.

    Heard on the radio yesterday that a bill is being introduced to lower all college loans, regardless of their original interest rate to the current interest rate of like 3.9% which is a near record low. Kind of makes one want to go back to school, doesn’t it? Moral hazard rules the day.

  19. JJ says:
    May 7, 2014 at 10:40 am

    I just finished reading the book “Flash Boys” the current number one NY Times hardcover book.

    OK it went on a lot about High Frequency Tradinga and Darkpools. I am very familar with subject and found it a hard read as it was a bit boring and ending was a let down.

    But how did it get to number one. WTF cares about this stuff than folks who work on Wall Street and a few big asset management firms and investors.

  20. JJ says:
    May 7, 2014 at 10:42 am

    Baby Boomers were more sellers than buyers during Spring 2004 to Spring 2007. It was the Gen X knuckleheds that caused the bubble with their willingness to do bidding wars and run up prices and leverage themselves to max

  21. Libturd in the City says:
    May 7, 2014 at 10:51 am

    I agree with JJ. Most Baby Boomers were downsizing into smaller homes (many in active adult communities).

  22. nwnj says:
    May 7, 2014 at 10:59 am

    And those knucklehead gen-Xers are still being reckoned with one at a time. It will take a long, long time to clear the backlog of distressed properties.

    A massively underwater neighbor decided to buy a similar house that’s 25% cheaper than he paid in 2006 and rent his current house to cover the mortgage.

    Good luck with that after 10 years when the current house needs a complete overhaul due to neglect and you’re still not back in the black. You’ve just done a great service to the mortgage holders buy breaking your back to repay them and you’ve gained nothing.

  23. JJ says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:01 am

    Gen-x needs to realize their is “money-shot” or “cream-pie” in real life.

  24. Street Justice says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:01 am

    U.S. businesses are being destroyed faster than they’re being created
    BY CHRISTOPHER INGRAHAM
    May 5 at 2:51 pm

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/05/05/u-s-businesses-are-being-destroyed-faster-than-theyre-being-created/?Post+generic=%3Ftid%3Dsm_twitter_washingtonpost

    NY and NJ were in the top five for “least declines in new businesses” not that it’s anything to brag about…

  25. Anon E. Moose says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:08 am

    Eddie [13];

    Its called price anchoring, and people who sell things for a living do it for one reason only… because it works. It may be a variant of the ‘it only takes one’ or some other greater fool theory, but you can’t argue with what’s right in front of you.

  26. Michael says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:09 am

    The baby boomer’s got it going in 1999 to 2002/early2003. The rest was fueled by lending standards and low rates. The baby boomer’s sold and upgraded from 1999-2003. 2004 on, some got to sell and retire, and by 2008, if they didn’t sell, they were screwed.

    JJ says:
    May 7, 2014 at 10:42 am
    Baby Boomers were more sellers than buyers during Spring 2004 to Spring 2007. It was the Gen X knuckleheds that caused the bubble with their willingness to do bidding wars and run up prices and leverage themselves to max

  27. DuckVader says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:13 am

    @18 Lib: “The housing bubble occurred because lending standards were eliminated. This decision was really non-partisan.”

    I have to agree with this more. I’ve directly/indirectly (through a sibling) been through at least five bubbles: US early 90s, Asia 90s when I was there, dotcom, US housing, Euro property. The behavior is the same — at some point the asset price increase feeds more of the same behavior that it becomes more and more speculative, rather than based on pent up fundamentals (maybe higher incomes, productivity gaines). It’s human nature, has been and always will be, from tulips and 90s comic books [4 different covers for X-Men 1) to real estate and stocks.

    At that point when you’re talking real estate and stocks (not comic books of course) the central bank has to step in to put some brakes in place, lending standards, higher interest rates and the like. Greenspan flubbed it. As did central bankers in Europe and Asia. And as did the Chinese.

  28. chicagofinance says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:15 am

    Stu: WFMI is a case study why that restaurant you tout…….?Shitpotle, Taco Smell?…is going to be doomed….

  29. chicagofinance says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:17 am

    Here is some speculation…….TWTR get pounded yesterday, now select QQQ companies getting killed today….we are pushing May 15th….some hedgie, or set of hedgies, is getting liquidated…..

  30. joyce says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:17 am

    Equally as appalling, but not at all shocking is that he was able to plead to a non-felony with just a $158 fine… and nothing for the wife.

    How much does it cost again if you drive around with your papers?

    82.Street Justice says:
    May 6, 2014 at 12:10 pm
    Shocking: Ex Cop who has his wife attempt to shoot him in the leg so he can collect a disability pension. (actually what’s shocking, is that he had a shot at getting a pension at all after the incident)

    http://www.nj.com/camden/index.ssf/2014/05/former_nj_police_officer_who_staged_his_own_shooting_wont_get_disability_pension.html#incart_m-rpt-1

  31. clotluva says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:19 am

    I dare say the provisions in the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997, making gains of up to $500,000 on the sale of a home tax free, and allowing this to be done an unlimited number of times (as long as you spent 2/5 years living in the house), had something to do with incentivizing increased demand (and turnover) and a run up in prices.

    Especially the 2/5 provision – it incentivized owning two residences simultaneously, since you can profit tax free from both. The fact that they made benchmark 2/5 years and not simply a “majority of time during the time of ownership” is somewhat telling. They could have easily restricted this to applying to a single (primary) residence at a time. Instead, they created an entire house flipping industry that attracted amateurs by the thousands.

    https://origin.bankrate.com/finance/real-estate/capital-gains-home-sale-tax-break-a-boon-for-owners-1.aspx

  32. Anon E. Moose says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:20 am

    Street [24];

    To create a ‘successful’ business these days, you need to be a Friend of Barry. How many Solyndras do we need to prove that? Cronyism is the coin of the realm in any monarchy.

  33. joyce says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:22 am

    In February 2013, Milwaukee County Sheriff’s Deputy Joseph Quiles ran a stop sign, then T-boned 25-year-old Tanya Weyker, leaving the woman with a neck broken in four places and medical expenses that could top a million dollars. Yet immediately after the accident, Quiles had Weyker arrested for drunken driving, based on statements from Quiles’s fellow cops that Weyker had a slight odor of alcohol on her breath and she admitted to having a few sips of a friend’s drink at dinner. Her injuries prevented her from taking a breath test.

    Quiles then filed a police report claiming he had come to a complete stop at the stop sign, putting Weyker at fault for the accident. Unfortunately for Quiles, Weyker’s blood tests came back clean. She was completely sober at the time of the accident. Moreover, Quiles’s report claimed that Weyker hadn’t turned on her headlights. But she was driving a car in which the headlights turn on automatically.

    But it gets worse. From Fox 6:

    “”” The truth might never have surfaced were it not for video from a nearby airport surveillance camera. It shows what investigators say is Deputy Quiles’ squad car traveling west on Hutsteiner Avenue, then continuing onto Howell without making a complete stop, as Quiles claimed in his report. The Sheriff’s Office knew about the video just two days after the crash. But no one told Weyker.

    Instead, the County sent letters blaming her for the crash and threatening legal action if she didn’t pay for the damage.

    Of course, if Weyker was drunk, it would have been easy to pin the blame on her. But less than a month after the crash, test results showed she had no alcohol in her system. And by July, her drug test came back negative too. Five months after the crash, it was clear Weyker had been stone cold sober.

    But still the case didn’t go away.

    “I don’t think it is fair at all,” Weyker said.

    Five more months passed before a prosecutor finally looked at the case and declined to file charges. But even then, Weyker says, she was left in the dark.

    “No one called me.”

    “She had to live with this hanging over her head for way too long,” [drunk driving defense expert Andrew] Mishlove said. “””

    So the sheriff’s department had the video that exonerated Weyker two days after the accident, but it continued to allow prosecutors to prosecute her on provably false charges, even as she lay in traction in a hospital bed. And were it not for that video, it seems likely that she’d still be facing charges. (Add this to the growing bank of “But for video …” stories.)

    There’s more. Apparently, Quiles’s injuries from the accident weren’t particularly all that serious. According to Fox 6, he was treated and released the night of the crash. Yet he has been on paid medical leave ever since and has cited the accident in an attempt to avoid paying child support. He is also now asking for permanent disability pay. Quiles has apparently been disciplined for running a stop sign, but he has not been disciplined for filing a clearly false police report and attempting to frame an innocent woman whom he badly injured. He also apparently has a history of filing reports writtend by others.

    Quiles did finally admit he caused the accident (only after he was confronted with the video evidence), but Milwaukee County still hasn’t paid Weyker’s medical bills. Even if the county finally writes her a check, there’s a law capping the costs at $250,000. If she wants more, she’ll have to file a civil rights lawsuit. Those are difficult to win, and she could be further tied up on in court for years.

    Here’s what should happen: Quiles should be fired. Immediately. He should also face criminal charges for filing a false police report. The county should pay all of Weyker’s medical bills, plus a hefty sum for her pain and suffering — not just from the accident, but from all the stress and worry county officials caused her for nearly a year by threatening her with baseless criminal charges. Milwaukee County Sheriff David A. Clarke Jr. should then investigate why it took months for the video of the accident to be turned over to Weyker’s attorneys. He should also get to the bottom of why a cop with a history like Quiles’s was still working for the agency in the first place. (And, apparently at least as of March was still working for the agency.) He should investigate why those other deputies claim to have seen signs of intoxication in a clearly sober woman. (If those deputies are capable of seeing signs of drunkenness in a stone-sober person, what does that say about the credibility of their observations and testimony in other DWI cases?)

    Clarke, incidentally, also occasionally writes at a personal blog. In a 2009 post about racial profiling, Clarke dismissed complaints from black motorists and accused groups like the ACLU of being “anti-cop,” and cynically undermining public trust in law enforcement.

    Seems that Clarke’s own deputies are doing a pretty good job of undermining public trust all by themselves.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-watch/wp/2014/05/05/but-for-video-wisconsin-deputy-badly-injures-woman-in-crash-attempts-to-blame-victim/

    I was hoping the author would also call for RICO charges to be filed against the entire sheriff’s office.

  34. joyce says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:30 am

    Being a friend of a Senator or Governor, etc etc wouldn’t work?

    32.Anon E. Moose says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:20 am
    Street [24];

    To create a ‘successful’ business these days, you need to be a Friend of Barry. How many Solyndras do we need to prove that? Cronyism is the coin of the realm in any monarchy.

  35. JJ says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:32 am

    TWTR got pounded as folks who bought in early got in at under $3 bucks and are heade towards the gates. Unless TWTR monetized Vine in near future you dont sit on a 10x run up . You get out of dodge.

    29.chicagofinance says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:17 am
    Here is some speculation…….TWTR get pounded yesterday, now select QQQ companies getting killed today….we are pushing May 15th….some hedgie, or set of hedgies, is getting liquidated…..

  36. Libturd in the City says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:40 am

    WFMI, a model of consistency and managerial brilliance (except when the CEO was caught posting on stock message boards) is about to suffer because they have decided that to expand further, they need to offer more traditional supermarket products (i.e. containing HFCS and non organic fruits and veges). What made WFMI the superstar that it is, was the notion that you were eating healthy and being green by shopping there. Kind of like driving a Prius. It costs a lot more, but the benefits are negligible. They realize they are nearly maxed out when it comes to expansion. Now they are going after the Krogers. And they will fail miserably. Why? Their differentiation is their only selling point. Kill that golden goose and the liberals who shop there will give it the Apple treatment.

    As for Chipotle…it’s still a brilliant business model and should have legs for a while longer. And they are not sitting on their laurels. I see their Chophouse concept (exact same model but Asian food instead) is gaining ground as well.

    Though both of these retailers are relying on trend. And eventually trends change. Go ask Benetton about that.

    BTW…I own neither and neither should you. A decade a ago was the time to buy these bad boys.

    In other news, I’m pretty sure our investment club is selling the last of our Apple tomorrow among the financial chicanery Cook is playing. It’s now 4 years without a new product. We can always get back in when and if they release a TV. The watch, will be a dud for sure.

  37. Libturd in the City says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:50 am

    And Chi…I love the CMG story, but haven’t owned it for years. The only time I owned it was the first couple of years. Then I sold it as food prices inflated and repurchased it about a year later when it bottomed and sold it about a year after that after it doubled again. I wouldn’t touch it unless it pulled back about 50%.

  38. Fast Eddie says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:55 am

    In other news, I’m pretty sure our investment club is selling the last of our Apple tomorrow among the financial chicanery Cook is playing.

    Good move. I could smell the blood as the savage competitors have reached the flesh. When I started seeing people playing with smart phones other than something with an “i” in front of it, I knew it was over.

  39. grim says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:58 am

    38 – Completely agree – I sold all my Lululemon stock last November, when they stopped making see-through yoga pants. I knew it was all over, and it was. Got on that bandwagon when I overheard a rich old hag in the Montclair Starbucks bragging about buying $100 stretch pants because someone told her they made her ass look good. Honey, the husbands were staring because they could see your hot pink thong, not because you’ve got a good ass. But hey, it was a good run.

  40. Ottoman says:
    May 7, 2014 at 12:00 pm

    “The housing bubble occurred because lending standards were eliminated. This decision was really non-partisan.”

    No, the housing bubble occurred because America has been drugged on easy credit ever since the banks began pushing credit cards to college students back in the 80s. The dirtiness and upheaval of the 60s and 70s led people to seek comfort in the acquisition of things and the banks took advantage of that.

    Also since the 80s the right has been sabotaging government and its reputation in order to get people disgusted and tuned out so corporations can buy up politicians who in turn elect judges that cede our country to those corporations through deregulation.

    Specifically to the latest housing bubble, Wall Street needed lots and lots of mortgages to bundle up and peddle to investors as quality investments. Whether or not the mortgages continued to get paid 6 months later was of no concern. Hence George Bush’s announcement that all Americans should be encouraged and given the tools to buy a home in 2002. What better way for the investment banks to get their hands on all that money that became available to them after gramm leach bliley? Although taking over the various large pension funds across he country has been quite lucrative as well.

  41. joyce says:
    May 7, 2014 at 12:05 pm

    40
    You’re all over the place in that post. But I love this little nugget “judges that cede our country to those corporations through deregulation”

  42. Fast Eddie says:
    May 7, 2014 at 12:11 pm

    Ottoman,

    I see. So it’s Bush AND Reagan’s fault.

  43. funnelcloud says:
    May 7, 2014 at 12:14 pm

    In the city of Detroit You can purchase a home for $1 Then they charge you 3-4K property taxes. Just goes to show you who really owns the homes & people are wondering why would millenials do not want to invest

  44. chicagofinance says:
    May 7, 2014 at 12:20 pm

    Doesn’t your group own some restaurant or something? Something profitable and growing, but with a 30/35+ PE?

    Libturd in the City says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:50 am
    And Chi…I love the CMG story, but haven’t owned it for years. The only time I owned it was the first couple of years. Then I sold it as food prices inflated and repurchased it about a year later when it bottomed and sold it about a year after that after it doubled again. I wouldn’t touch it unless it pulled back about 50%.

  45. Michael says:
    May 7, 2014 at 12:28 pm

    I think this is an interesting take on that issue from someone in canada. They posted the following comment:

    “Do you really think America is alone in this ? Try not to be so insulated. Take a look up north at us, Canada. And we have a Tea Party (Conservative) federal government run a muck. Our business closings/failures are similar to yours.
    We have similar economies, while yours is a Market Economy, ours is a Mixed Economy. We both have Plutocracies (we both used to have Democracies).
    We have had universal healthcare for decades – but it is Not the reason for our failing economy.
    Not one Bankster has been sent to jail – nor has any Tradester for putting the world economy in to a tailspin.
    Even one so called right wing columnist in Canada describe’s our right wing Prime Minister’s leadership as “spinning out of control”.

    “Watching the Harper government stumble from one needless controversy to another — picking fights, settling scores, demeaning institutions and individuals alike in the pursuit of no discernible principle or even political gain — one has had the distinct impression of a government, and a Prime Minister, spinning out of control. … the meltdown has reached Lindsay Lohanesque proportions”

    My point is…. Americans should quit blaming Obama – you would be no better off if you had to bow down Pres Mitt”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/05/05/u-s-businesses-are-being-destroyed-faster-than-theyre-being-created/?Post+generic=%3Ftid%3Dsm_twitter_washingtonpost

  46. Michael says:
    May 7, 2014 at 12:36 pm

    I have a theory. Could big corporations like walmart be responsible for this. They suck up more and more of the market every year. So we are not really losing business, we are just losing many businesses that are getting eaten up by the big boys.

    Like I said last week, what small business could you start that is not a service or consulting business. Go into any other field and you have to compete with the big boys, good luck competing with them.

    Street Justice says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:01 am
    U.S. businesses are being destroyed faster than they’re being created
    BY CHRISTOPHER INGRAHAM
    May 5 at 2:51 pm

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/05/05/u-s-businesses-are-being-destroyed-faster-than-theyre-being-created/?Post+generic=%3Ftid%3Dsm_twitter_washingtonpost

    NY and NJ were in the top five for “least declines in new businesses” not that it’s anything to brag about…

  47. Michael says:
    May 7, 2014 at 12:42 pm

    Interesting. Thank you so much for the share. I didn’t even realize this, as I was only 17 at the time. So this is my first time hearing about this temporary law.

    clotluva says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:19 am
    I dare say the provisions in the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997, making gains of up to $500,000 on the sale of a home tax free, and allowing this to be done an unlimited number of times (as long as you spent 2/5 years living in the house), had something to do with incentivizing increased demand (and turnover) and a run up in prices.

    Especially the 2/5 provision – it incentivized owning two residences simultaneously, since you can profit tax free from both. The fact that they made benchmark 2/5 years and not simply a “majority of time during the time of ownership” is somewhat telling. They could have easily restricted this to applying to a single (primary) residence at a time. Instead, they created an entire house flipping industry that attracted amateurs by the thousands.

    https://origin.bankrate.com/finance/real-estate/capital-gains-home-sale-tax-break-a-boon-for-owners-1.aspx

  48. JJ says:
    May 7, 2014 at 12:58 pm

    This upcoming weekend, Saturday, May 3, 2014, marks the one-year anniversary of the start of the great bond market sell-off of 2013. Starting May 3, bond prices declined steadily through late June 2013, with weakness persisting through much of the summer. The sharp pullback was one of the worst on record and contributed to the broad Barclays Aggregate Bond Index posting its weakest calendar year performance since 1994. In an eerie one year parallel, Apple, a rare corporate bond issuer, issued new bonds on April 30, 2013, just prior to the sell-off, and locked in a low interest rate. This week, Apple announced another bond issue to take advantage of low yields in an opportunistic issuance to benefit stockholders. Is the bond market near another market top?

  49. anon (the good one) says:
    May 7, 2014 at 1:03 pm

    @SenSanders: I have a hard time understanding how one can vote for tax breaks for the rich but not for #veterans benefits.

  50. Libturd in the City says:
    May 7, 2014 at 1:04 pm

    Chi…I think you are thinking of BJs (JJ’s favorite).

    Our current holdings (and we expect to trim about 5 names tomorrow) are as follows:

    Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. Cl (CTSH) 10.02
    MICHAEL cORS HOLDINGS LIMITED (cORS) 9.72
    Apple Inc (AAPL) 9.4
    HEICO Corp (HEI) 8.95
    Canadian National Railway (CNI) 7.49
    COMPUTER PROGRAMS & SYSTEMS (CPSI) 6.96
    FactSet Research Systems Inc (FDS) 6.51
    LKQ CP (LKQ) 6.31
    Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) 6.15
    Echo Global Logistics Inc (ECHO) 3.99
    UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) 3.55
    GOOGLE INC CL A (GOOGL) 3.18
    Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc (ULTA) 3.03
    F5 Network Inc (FFIV) 2.6
    Seadrill (SDRL) 2.39
    GOOGLE INC C (GOOG) 2.31
    Transact Technologies Inc (TACT) 2.15
    Idexx Laboratories (IDXX) 1.5
    Resmed Inc (RMD) 1.26
    SolarWinds (SWI) 1.23
    Keurig Green Mou (GMCR) 1.13

  51. Libturd in the City says:
    May 7, 2014 at 1:07 pm

    @ColonelSanders: I always hired widows with children, because they had to work and didn’t have any foolishness about them. #Sure

  52. Michael says:
    May 7, 2014 at 1:09 pm

    47- Clotluva, that makes a lot of sense now. Combine our theories, and it makes a lot of sense. That policy would def make the baby boomer’s start making moves with their real estate, which they did, and help kick-start the bubble.

  53. anon (the good one) says:
    May 7, 2014 at 1:12 pm

    @SenSanders: If you can’t afford to take care of your #veterans, then don’t go to war. http://t.co/aTjH8k1r17

  54. Michael says:
    May 7, 2014 at 1:13 pm

    Great analysis. Totally agree.

    Libturd in the City says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:40 am
    WFMI, a model of consistency and managerial brilliance (except when the CEO was caught posting on stock message boards) is about to suffer because they have decided that to expand further, they need to offer more traditional supermarket products (i.e. containing HFCS and non organic fruits and veges). What made WFMI the superstar that it is, was the notion that you were eating healthy and being green by shopping there. Kind of like driving a Prius. It costs a lot more, but the benefits are negligible. They realize they are nearly maxed out when it comes to expansion. Now they are going after the Krogers. And they will fail miserably. Why? Their differentiation is their only selling point. Kill that golden goose and the liberals who shop there will give it the Apple treatment.

    As for Chipotle…it’s still a brilliant business model and should have legs for a while longer. And they are not sitting on their laurels. I see their Chophouse concept (exact same model but Asian food instead) is gaining ground as well.

    Though both of these retailers are relying on trend. And eventually trends change. Go ask Benetton about that.

    BTW…I own neither and neither should you. A decade a ago was the time to buy these bad boys.

    In other news, I’m pretty sure our investment club is selling the last of our Apple tomorrow among the financial chicanery Cook is playing. It’s now 4 years without a new product. We can always get back in when and if they release a TV. The watch, will be a dud for sure.

  55. anon (the good one) says:
    May 7, 2014 at 1:14 pm

    @SenSanders:
    Today at 5:30pmET
    Sen. Sanders will hold a @Reddit_AMA.
    Get your questions ready: http://t.co/GYXR7JRPNY #Reddit

  56. Michael says:
    May 7, 2014 at 1:22 pm

    Seriously, this might be the best post I have read from you. You are so on point!!

    Fast Eddie says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:55 am
    In other news, I’m pretty sure our investment club is selling the last of our Apple tomorrow among the financial chicanery Cook is playing.

    Good move. I could smell the blood as the savage competitors have reached the flesh. When I started seeing people playing with smart phones other than something with an “i” in front of it, I knew it was over.

  57. joyce says:
    May 7, 2014 at 1:29 pm

    How would you like to get your lunch for free? Well at the string of new Panera Care’s stores (most recently in Boston) you can…technically. These non-profit stores operate on a “pay what you can” system, where upon ordering, the cashier prints out a receipt with a suggested price. You’re then able to pay as little or as much as you want for your food. The hope is that people who can afford to pay more for their food will help those who can’t, you might be surprised to learn that all of these cafés are running at a profit.

    http://blog.priceintelligently.com/blog/bid/181199/Price-Anchoring-to-Optimize-Your-Pricing-Strategy

    25.Anon E. Moose says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:08 am
    Eddie [13];

    Its called price anchoring, and people who sell things for a living do it for one reason only… because it works. It may be a variant of the ‘it only takes one’ or some other greater fool theory, but you can’t argue with what’s right in front of you.

  58. Fast Eddie says:
    May 7, 2014 at 1:42 pm

    joyce [57],

    I like the concept. I saw a Center Hall Colonial in Rivervale listed at $889,000 that I really like. I’m going to offer $450,000 and have the liberals assist me with the rest of the financing.

  59. The Original NJ ExPat says:
    May 7, 2014 at 1:48 pm

    A select group perhaps. Specifically the ones who thought they had a completely hedged trade by writing insurance on $10 billion in assets while collecting $X premium and then buying insurance on the same $10 billion in assets for less than $X. The difference between the two premiums were thought to be a riskless and guaranteed stream of arbitrage profit, which it was until one insurer couldn’t pay, then the whole betting ring collapsed.

    I just feel like the baby boomers were the cause of the housing bubble.

  60. anon (the good one) says:
    May 7, 2014 at 2:01 pm

    @WSJ: “If you need a new laptop, this is the one to buy,”
    writes @joannastern http://t.co/gunI2UAieZ http://t.co/wiTH1ionnv

  61. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
    May 7, 2014 at 2:22 pm

    [60] anon,

    What? Supporting those tax avoiders? Oh, the hypocrisy.

  62. JJ says:
    May 7, 2014 at 2:44 pm

    Hey Realtors Want to know how much I increased my home value today!!

    The assessors office messed up my assessment and gave me a huge reduction in assessed value.

    So my current taxes are $8,571 (which I got down from $9,500 from prior grievances) and $9,500 is what most neighbors pay with similar houses some higher.

    On this go around they knocked it down to $2,556.42. I talked to assessor and system is locked so it is what it is.

    Now NYS has a law in place that prevents assessed values from rising more than 6% a year or 20% over five years. I doubt my house will get back to real taxes anytime in next 30 years.

    So two idential houses one lets say $9k taxes and the other is $2.5K taxes how much extra would you pay? Even though mine will rise 20% over five years guaranteed it still sounds like a good deal. Even more so for a cash buyer who is older and downsizing to my smaller home. It pretty much means cheap taxes for life.

  63. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
    May 7, 2014 at 2:46 pm

    [62] JJ

    You are the man.

    JJ: Men want to be him, women want to be with him.

    Back to the salt mines

  64. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:
    May 7, 2014 at 2:56 pm

    Nom but Steve Jobs, hipsters, down with Microsoft yada yada yada

    Lib I’m with you the ship has sailed on Apple, they are going to go back to being a niche provider but will soldier on. You guys should still be taking some pretty good gains out of it still, but could seem some serious downturns looming with that stock for those who remain.

  65. Ben says:
    May 7, 2014 at 2:57 pm

    kids love Chipotle. I try to convince them that Qdoba and Pancheros is the same damn crap and they refuse to believe it. Something about that place just has the youth brainwashed into waiting 20 minutes to get a burrito and a drink for 10 bucks

  66. Ben says:
    May 7, 2014 at 2:59 pm

    Apple was able to deify their CEO. I can’t tell you how many people worship Steve Jobs, yet none seem to actually know anything about him or what work he did.

  67. anon (the good one) says:
    May 7, 2014 at 3:04 pm

    @tim_cook: You are more powerful than you think. https://t.co/QAMrQH8454

  68. The Original NJ ExPat says:
    May 7, 2014 at 3:17 pm

    [65] I’m a fan of Chipotle along with the local Boston College kids who go to the Cleveland Circle location (I’ve never been to another one). I guess your mileage may vary, but the workers at our location really hustle so the wait is never long at all. I almost always am getting mine to go and even with a line I’m always out of there in less ten minutes. With no line it has to be less than three.

    kids love Chipotle. I try to convince them that Qdoba and Pancheros is the same damn crap and they refuse to believe it. Something about that place just has the youth brainwashed into waiting 20 minutes to get a burrito and a drink for 10 bucks

  69. NJGator says:
    May 7, 2014 at 3:27 pm

    Why wait at Chipotle ever? Order online or with their app and go straight to the register and pick up. Cut the whole darn line. You don’t even have to pay online. You can pay when you pick up at the store.

  70. grim says:
    May 7, 2014 at 3:30 pm

    Since when does innovation and ability to deliver have anything to do with stock price? There have been plenty of great products whose companies were run piss poor, and piss poor products that were turned into cash powerhouses by great companies. I see this comparison all the time, and I scratch my head. Apple’s stock price has nothing to do with the iPhone’s capability as a product.

  71. anon (the good one) says:
    May 7, 2014 at 4:03 pm

    agreed. if it did, stock would be 2, 3 or 4 times its current price

    grim says:
    May 7, 2014 at 3:30 pm
    Apple’s stock price has nothing to do with the iPhone’s capability as a product.

  72. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:
    May 7, 2014 at 4:03 pm

    Grim I look at Apples stock price as a function of their ability to innovate and stay ahead of market trends. I would think the markets value it for the same reason.

    Now I love the macbook and wanted to get one for my wife but found a touchscreen windows 8 machine for half the price with many of the same features. would i rather have the macbook sure it looks sweet and runs great but cost won the day. This is where market forces are going to start having some downward pressure on their stock price. Same goes for their other products.

  73. chicagofinance says:
    May 7, 2014 at 4:27 pm

    grim: premium margins => premium valuation

    AAPL was stealing money from the carriers who subsidized the phones and was able to enforce high prices on a willing customer……..they also were able to beat the sh!t out of suppliers. Couple that fact with being about 1 1/2 product cycles ahead of the competition meant the current margins were defendable for a period of time…….they also literally replaced the desktop computer, so they also destroyed Windows and the entire business sphere of that product. The also might have ripped a part of the cable industry and television networks.

    Hard to follow up with Revolution, The Sequel……..

  74. chicagofinance says:
    May 7, 2014 at 4:29 pm

    They key feature of an iPhone was that even a stupid person could use it.

  75. chicagofinance says:
    May 7, 2014 at 4:31 pm

    Case in point…….DIS absolutely knocked the cover off the ball, and they have Frozen 2 & Star Wars VII in the pipeline, and the stock was down today……….danger Will Robinson……

  77. anon (the good one) says:
    May 7, 2014 at 4:39 pm

    what the fukc is chifi talking about? can somebody translate

  78. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:
    May 7, 2014 at 4:51 pm

    Anon other than your a moron here is the translation apple is do for a fall, companies don’t often have two revolutionary product cycles lasting decades especially when the driver of that revolution is worm food.

  79. Anon E. Moose says:
    May 7, 2014 at 5:09 pm

    JJ [62];

    Don’t those increase caps reset on sale? Great deal for you, but you can’t sell that deal to anyone.

  80. Anon E. Moose says:
    May 7, 2014 at 5:19 pm

    Chipotle:

    Not exactly the same, but very similar. I’ve got both Pancero’s and Qdoba near my office (in that order), but I kind of prefer Chipotle, and look for a reason to grab lunch from them when I’m near one. I’m surprised at how well they move people through their line at the lunch rush.

    I don’t buy that there is any causality that Chipotle is liked by more liberals — they are mostly located in yuppie metropolitan areas (like Starbucks, that’s where the money is — see $10 burrito, above). Guess what the predominant political leaning of yuppie metropolitan areas is? Yep!

    Kind of like how Subaru has acquired a leftist reputation because the liberals in Madison, WI like them. You know what? The liberals in Madison, WI have to put up with a lot of snow, and that’s where Subies shine (can anyone tell I’m happy with my recent car purchase?) — no politics involved, really.

  81. Grim says:
    May 7, 2014 at 5:37 pm

    Yesterday I found out I eat liberal food, today I drive a liberal car…

    Is this the new strategy? Slowly take over enough of my life to turn me into a liberal?

  82. Grim says:
    May 7, 2014 at 5:40 pm

    Apple isn’t a one hit wonder, but I agree with the premise that it’s an unlikely that one company can serially create disruptive technologies.

    Might they have another? Perhaps. I think black swan can apply to technology innovation too, it’s possible they hit another home run, even if it’s because they stepped in shit a fourth time.

  83. Ben says:
    May 7, 2014 at 5:43 pm

    I don’t buy that there is any causality that Chipotle is liked by more liberals — they are mostly located in yuppie metropolitan areas (like Starbucks, that’s where the money is — see $10 burrito, above). Guess what the predominant political leaning of yuppie metropolitan areas is? Yep!

    I do. There’s a reason they post up all that GMO hormone free stuff all over their menu. Honestly, I eat at Chipotle once a week. I do enjoy it. However, I don’t see the fascination. I came from a city area where you can walk into a little mexican joint, get a better burrito for 60% of the price. Chipotle uses too much rice and the product is too expensive for what it is. I think it is good, yet overrated. That being said, it’s surely a better option than Panera, Subway, or McDonald’s.

    Chipotle obviously markets themselves well. They created an environment that makes people want to go there. The yuppies love the decor and ambiance. Me…I don’t get it. The place is modeled after a prison cafeteria. Your food is prepared prison style. The seats are prison seats. The tables are prison tables. There is no ceiling. You see all the pipes. Hell, they even have a 55 gallon drum as their garbage can.

  84. anon (the good one) says:
    May 7, 2014 at 5:50 pm

    Apple was done
    and iMac came out

    Apple was done
    and iPod came out

    Apple was done
    and iPhone came out

    Apple was done
    and iPad came out

    to be continued…

  85. Ascent of the Robots says:
    May 7, 2014 at 6:21 pm

    stu (36)-

    WFMI will be done in by Wegman’s, Healthy Living and Fresh Market. The competition in that space is brutal.

    I vend to all of them in one form or another. They use fine wine as a loss leader (except for Healthy Living). Pricing wine like groceries is not a way to record profits.

  86. Ascent of the Robots says:
    May 7, 2014 at 6:22 pm

    anon (84)

    Apple was done
    and anon drove into a bridge abutment?

  87. Ascent of the Robots says:
    May 7, 2014 at 6:25 pm

    Expat, I have some bidness in Boston this summer. I’d really like to meet you and drink a wheat soda or two.

    I’ll even leave the Mossberg at home. It’s a little bulky, even up the sleeve of my trenchcoat. :)

  88. grim says:
    May 7, 2014 at 6:36 pm

    85 – what are you doing this days? rep or distributor?

  90. Ragnar says:
    May 7, 2014 at 7:13 pm

    Anon can’t wait for the ibuttplug.

  91. The Original NJ ExPat, cusp of doom says:
    May 7, 2014 at 7:19 pm

    Clot – let me know your schedule. Nom and I got together for a few beers and his bar tab was zero. I’m not running a long con. really.

    Expat, I have some bidness in Boston this summer. I’d really like to meet you and drink a wheat soda or two.

  92. NJGator says:
    May 7, 2014 at 8:44 pm

    Grim 81- You haven’t been completely taken over until they get you to go gluten free.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/06/gluten-free-people-have-no-idea-what-gluten-is_n_5273980.html

  98. NJGator says:
    May 7, 2014 at 9:07 pm

    Sh*t’s getting real in the Newark mayoral race…

    Shavar Jefffries: I’m asking Ras Baraka this question on behalf of Newarkers who stand in the unemployment line everyday. How can you walk the streets of this city and see Newarkers that are struggling to find one job when you and your brothers have 4 public jobs between you making over a quarter million dollars a year?

    How do you justify that to struggling families?

  99. Juice Box says:
    May 7, 2014 at 9:19 pm

    Re #89 – that has been said for decades. We will keep printing until the cows no longer come home.

  100. Juice Box says:
    May 7, 2014 at 9:21 pm

    Re #97- didn’t Booker campaign on the same thing?

  101. Juice Box says:
    May 7, 2014 at 9:24 pm

    Re: 95- my wife now maintains a gluten free house. I now feel gluten and glutton are not exclusive terms.

  103. Ascent of the Robots says:
    May 7, 2014 at 9:36 pm

    expat (91)-

    long con make long pig. :)

  104. Ascent of the Robots says:
    May 7, 2014 at 9:37 pm

    I want a gun that can shoot people with gluten.

  105. anon (the good one) says:
    May 7, 2014 at 9:39 pm

    @MotherJones: Report: The effects of climate change are occurring in real-time all over the United States http://t.co/BlbhpngbQO

  106. anon (the good one) says:
    May 7, 2014 at 9:45 pm

    ““There’s a level of harshness in our debates mostly coming from the people who are actually doing very well,” Krugman tells Moyers. “We’ve had a parade of billionaires whining about the incredible injustice that people are actually criticizing them. And then comparing anyone who criticizes them to the Nazis. It’s almost a tic that they have.” Krugman recently wrote about the billionaires — including Home Depot co-founder Ken Langone — who have spoken out and surmised that the idea that income inequality is the result of a systemic problem and not a lack of sufficient effort on the part of those struggling to get by “is anathema” to them.”

    @BillMoyersHQ: Paul Krugman on why we live “in such ugliness in America right now.” @NYTimesKrugman
    http://t.co/EI4vMWbElP

  107. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
    May 7, 2014 at 10:02 pm

    Clot, expat speaks the truth.

  108. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
    May 7, 2014 at 10:03 pm

    [105] anon

    I agree, enough with the name calling.

    I’m waiting for the shooting to start.

  109. anon (the good one) says:
    May 7, 2014 at 10:17 pm

    A father and son are having the talk about sex (self.Jokes)
    submitted 15 hours ago by acceptableusername

    After a few minutes, the son says, “Dad, I know all that stuff. We went over it in Health class.”

    Dad says, “Well, do you have any questions?”

    “Yeah, I have one about condoms.”

    “What do you need to know?”

    “When I was in the drugstore, I saw that they sell them by the dozen. Who needs that many at once?”

    “That’s an easy one, son. You saw that they sell packages of three. High schoolers buy those. One for Friday, one for Saturday, one for the rest of the week. They also sell packages of six. College students buy those. Two for Friday, two for Saturday, two for the rest of the week.”

    “OK dad, but what about the dozen?”

    “Married people buy those. One for January, one for February…”

  110. Juice Box says:
    May 7, 2014 at 10:23 pm

    Anon – Krugman is a trickle down millionaire. I would rather listen to Joe Madison over him and that is not saying much.

    http://www.celebrityhousepictures.com/paul-krugman.php

  111. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
    May 7, 2014 at 10:32 pm

    The comments on the Moyers piece are hysterical. This is one of my favorites for its absolutely Carneyesque dissembling:

    “Paul Krugman and Bill Moyers are not demonizing the 1%, they are pointing out how the 1% rig the system, and cheat the majority of the population out of their income and wealth.”

  112. Juice Box says:
    May 7, 2014 at 10:33 pm

    re # 104 – anyone who does not think we will not dig up and burn every BTU of dinosaur fuel from the ground is a fool, they do not understand any kind of constant you can derive from alternatives. We can only reduce our reliance on dinosaur fuel by sacrificing much more than a long commute.

  113. Juice Box says:
    May 7, 2014 at 10:40 pm

    re # 108- at least you aren’t a man.

    Night all.

  114. Juice Box says:
    May 7, 2014 at 10:43 pm

    Conrats to Clot you made it out of the hood. Be sure to check your privilege before speaking….

  115. Juice Box says:
    May 7, 2014 at 10:48 pm

    Getting close to the POP, as seen on the Fox news tonight, tattoo your allegiance to the Realtor Guild (Footnote for Anon:” I only watch FOX for the strange stories”)

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/01/rapid-realty-tattoo_n_3192939.html

  116. Ragnar says:
    May 7, 2014 at 11:37 pm

    Don’t just skip gluten. Skip all grain. Low or negative nutrition generally. Get fiber from vegetables.

  117. Grim says:
    May 8, 2014 at 5:49 am

    Be healthy, drink your grain.

  118. QEiyKQ1vKoLFfB says:
    May 8, 2014 at 9:04 am

    73027 576939I admire your work , regards for all the helpful blog posts. 844671

Comments are closed.