Is the slowdown good news?

From MarketWatch:

Home-price growth, now at two-year low, may accelerate in 2015

Home prices cooled in October, pulling down annual growth to the slowest pace in two years, but there are hints that the market could pick up next year.

U.S. home prices ticked down 0.1% in October from September, according to S&P/Case-Shiller’s 20-city composite index released Tuesday. Prices dropped in 10 cities, increased in eight, and were unchanged in two.

Meanwhile, the pace of annual growth also pulled back, with year-over-year home prices rising 4.5% in October — the slowest pace in two years — compared with an annual gain of 4.8% in September. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had expected year-over-year price growth to slow to 4.7% in October.

But here’s why there could be a pickup again in 2015: Fewer cities are seeing slower annual home-price growth. There were 12 cities that posted slower year-over-year home-price growth in October than in September. That’s a large drop from August, when all 20 cities saw slower annual home-price growth.

“After a long period when home prices rose, but at a slower pace with each passing month, we are seeing hints that prices could end 2014 on a strong note and accelerate into 2015,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

More than half of U.S. states are on track to hit or surpass peak bubble-era levels by the middle of 2015, and there’s some concern about certain markets getting overheated, according to separate data. However, areas that were hit particularly hard when the housing bubble burst, such as markets in Nevada and Florida, are still struggling.

Cooler appreciation may lure buyers who feel that they’ll have a better shot at getting a fair deal, and make homebuying a more realistic choice for families that haven’t seen quickly rising wages in recent years.

“A slower-moving housing market is inherently more stable, more balanced between buyers and sellers and more sustainable over the long-term,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist at real estate site Zillow.

But there’s also a darker side to slower home-price growth: It could take longer for equity to rise for owners, which in the past has helped homeowners who owe more on a mortgage than the home is worth and struggling with their payments. In the third quarter, about 17% of homeowners with a mortgage had negative equity, compared with 21% a year earlier, according to Zillow. That share could decline to 15% by the end of 2015’s third quarter.

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45 Responses to Is the slowdown good news?

  1. grim says:

    Zoellner died? That guy had one hell of a pad in Alpine – 48.5 Acres and 15,000 square feet. I know a few folks that have been inside and they’ve said that it’s is the most expensive house they’d ever seen. I believe now that the Frick property was subdivided, this is the largest piece of contiguous residential property in town. Fun fact, Zoellner and Bill Gross are the only two people to ever assemble a collection of every American postage stamp ever made.

  2. yome says:

    Bye bye Tea bags in Arizona

  3. Ragnar says:

    Sure, because “green energy” is generally economically inefficient and high cost. Like putting people into large hamster wheels to generate a trickle of electricity, subsidized by government. What people need is cheap energy, not energy that demands lots of scarce resources including labor and materials.

  4. Anon E. Moose says:

    Yo [2];

    Because running as a “moderate” worked out so well for him in 2008, and for Romney in 2012; third time’s a charm in 2016! {/sarc}

  5. Juice Box says:

    previous thread #99 – Flabby – You want to complain about the construction dollars spent but you don’t even understand the game. Do you have any idea what prevailing wage is? Never mind the mandatory percentage of minority hires required and the additional management needed to keep track of the paperwork and reporting required before you get paid. NJ is too damm expensive to build anything because the Dems and the Unions want it that way. Competitive companies from outside of New Jersey cannot even bring in cheaper labor from say South Carolina to build our roads or bridges.

  6. Juice Box says:

    It’s a wonder the boy scouts never sold their property in Alpine.

  7. anon (the good one) says:

    Too early for Aussies wishing us a Happy New Year. They should wait until a respectable hour.

  8. anon (the good one) says:

    McCain’s team quietly purging Arizona GOP of tea-party foes before 2016 reelection bid

  9. chicagofinance says:

    Statistics lie……use logic….NJ is a small state, mild and damp coastal climate, and is the population-densest state in the nation…..renewables need space, sun, wind and unused land.

    Fabius Maximus says:
    December 31, 2014 at 7:07 am
    New Jersey produces .868 gigawatt-hours of renewable energy every year, ranking it 46th.

  10. Juice Box says:

    Here is a rosy housing prediction for 2015.

    “, a nationwide database of real estate agents, predicts that new home sales will rise by 25 percent next year, and that Millennials will make up 65 percent of first-time buyers .”

  11. grim says:

    Nothing about unicorns? They forgot the unicorns?

  12. anon (the good one) says:

    “Yes. We make no apologies in stating that the great moral, economic and political issue of our time is the growing level of income and wealth inequality in our nation.

    It is a disgrace to everything this country is supposed to stand for when the top one-tenth of 1 percent owns almost as much wealth as the bottom 90 percent, and when one family (the Waltons) owns more wealth than the bottom 40 percent.

    No. The economy is not sustainable when the middle class continues to disappear and when 95 percent of all new income generated since the Wall Street crash goes to the top 1 percent. In order to create a vibrant economy, working families need disposable income. That is often not the case today.”

    @SenSanders: As I look ahead to this coming year, a number of thoughts come to mind:

  13. 1987 Condo says:

    #13…I forget, what is the solution that I can act on again?

  14. Juice Box says:

    P.S. You have 24 hours to give us the Wolf.


  15. anon (the good one) says:

    Rebuilding Our Crumbling Infrastructure

    Reversing Climate Change

    Creating Worker Co-ops

    Growing the Trade Union Movement

    Raising the Minimum Wage

    Pay Equity for Women Workers

    Trade Policies that Benefit American Workers

    Making College Affordable for All

    Taking on Wall Street

    Health Care as a Right for All

    Protecting the Most Vulnerable Americans

    Real Tax Reform

    1987 Condo says:
    December 31, 2014 at 12:11 pm
    #13…I forget, what is the solution that I can act on again?

  16. NJT says:

    #11 JB

    “Here is a rosy housing prediction for 2015.

    “, a nationwide database of real estate agents, predicts that new home sales will rise by 25 percent next year, and that Millennials will make up 65 percent of first-time buyers .”


    Guess I better get ready to sell the rentals again. Damn, just when I got a great bunch of tenants (mostly Millenials).

  17. 1987 Condo says:

    #16..Those are all nice and I agree with most, but besides listing them, I do not believe I can do any of those….pretty much I vote for my candidate and write a few letters and as they say..give to Ceasar what is Ceasar’s and give to God what is God’s….

  18. Liquor Luge says:

    Burn the mf’er down and start over.

  19. Fast Eddie says:

    The muppets occupying this one have been trying to sell this for five years. Originally asking 499K, went down to 419K, didn’t sell. On and off the market repeatedly. What to do? Why, raise the price back to 499K. A half million for this dump. You first time buyers are f.ucked beyond belief.

  20. Anon E. Moose says:

    Tool [13];

    “What the honorable member is saying is that he would rather that the poor were poorer, provided that the rich were less rich… So long as the gap is smaller, they would rather have the poor poorer. You do not create wealth and opportunity that way. You do not create a property-owning democracy that way.”

    That was Nov 22, 1990. Still prescient almost 25 years on.

  21. Anon E. Moose says:

    Con’t [22];

    I wonder how many people are going to be quoting your quoting of tweets 25 years from now. I think you’d be lucky some scavenger internet archive still has the bits strung together.

  22. Fast Eddie says:

    They’ve been trying to sell this on and off for 11 years. At one point it was listed at 1.5 million, currently asking 699K. Unbelievable.

  23. Fast Eddie says:

    Try to imagine the number of stup1d b@stards that closed on houses during the swindle years of the last decade. Clot is right, it’s going to be a generation before this thing resembles normal again. This has been the greatest money swindle ever devised. Pure f.ucking genius and all the pretenders in these “need to have” towns are left with a stick up their @ss.

  24. Juice Box says:

    re# 24 – Busy road with fast moving traffic, it won’t sell….

    Check the the maps first..,-74.1165953,3a,75y,109.6h,83.96t/data=!3m4!1e1!3m2!1sMiyCqNTjcLuoxVFeD4Qvbw!2e0!6m1!1e1

  25. Xolepa says:

    It’s too bad that Eddie doesn’t have the *** body parts to consider moving himself to my neck of the woods. Yes, the commute to NNJ/NYC is longer but the payback in terms of schooling for the kids, pace of life, health and dozens of other unquantifiable attributes more than compensates. There are big, I mean BIG modern homes on huge lots for sale in Hunterdon county for under $600k. Some great construction (post and beam). Others with great vistas.

    Not many people who live here look to move further east.

    And, oh yes, we still tax enough to keep the riff-raff out.

  26. Juice Box says:

    re # 25- Haven’t year heard it’s New Years eve the Millennials as will start cutting their beards, getting hitched and buying houses en-mass starting tonight.

  27. Fast Eddie says:

    Completely renovated. They started at 799K, curently at 699K which means nominally, it should be at 599K. I can almost guarantee the bedrooms are small and the first floor layout is totally f.ucked up.

  28. Juice Box says:

    Hipsters bubble about to burst?


    Ironic T-shirts, oversized scarves, artisan everything, an aversion to news cameras and reporters: these are the markings of the hipster. But is the movement over because it is de facto mainstream?

    Here at hipster headquarters — otherwise known as Williamsburg in Brooklyn — we found the self-proclaimed anti-hipster bar, Alligator Lounge.

    The rent here and at most other businesses in the area has gone up as the hipster population has grown. According to the website, Brooklyn is now the least affordable place to live in the country. But like any financial bubble, the multi-billion-dollar industry surrounding the hipster bubble has reached its peak and is bound to burst, experts say.

    Sales of eyeglasses are the highest they’ve been in 15 years. In two years, sales of Pabst Blue Ribbon shot up 42 percent.

    Dare we say, the hipster movement has gone mainstream? If that’s true, the advice among experts is to get out while you can. And maybe take the mustache with you.

  29. Fast Eddie says:


    I love Hunterdon County and Somerset County. Because of work and school (and domestic feedback), I can’t consider these areas. Believe me, I would!

  30. Fast Eddie says:

    Sold for 575K back in the scam years (2006) and is currently asking 499K. How’s that for an investment? And I love the 6X8 bedrooms.

  31. Fast Eddie says:

    One after the other. Sold for 700K in 2007, currently asking 650K. Ba-zinga.

  32. Liquor Luge says:

    xolepa (27)-

    I live in Hunterdon. I worked in JC for three years and now travel all over NY state on business. I’m better suited to driving than the average individual, but it’s been no problem for me commuting to NYC and Westchester on a fairly regular basis. Bad weather or traffic jammed up? Just stay a night at an AirBnB (I have a list of cheap, fun go-tos now).

    I would not move east for all the money in the world, plus a free house. Not to Bergen, not to JC, not to Morristown…certainly not Essex (or should I say, host organism for the parasite known as Newark?).

    Long-term, IMHO, housing in Hunterdon is as doomed as anywhere else in NJ, maybe moreso because of the location, which inherently isn’t appealing to everyone. However, it offers the best bang-for-buck that you can get in that 400-650K sweet spot. Skools at least have good press, and even though they actually suck as bad as everywhere else, you can deprogram a fairly intelligent kid yourself within a year of graduation. North Hunterdon didn’t fcuk up either of my kids too bad, and though they are bright, neither is an Einstein.

    Still- ATEOTD- we’re outta here the minute my youngest graduates.

  33. Liquor Luge says:

    Oh. And Hunterdon Central is a gulag. ;)

  34. Liquor Luge says:

    Last guy outta NJ, please set off a thermonuclear device.

  35. NJT says:

    Nah, low yield neutron devices, strategically located, would be better. OK, except for in a few places, that need to be reduced to rubble. 50 years until ‘shovel ready’ but, it’s the only way.

  36. Xolepa says:

    Grim, I think I need an unmod.

  37. chicagofinance says:

    So creepy….. 1930’s house bones with 2000’s clothes……it looks way off in the pictures, I can only imagine in person……

    Fast Eddie says:
    December 31, 2014 at 2:34 pm
    One after the other. Sold for 700K in 2007, currently asking 650K. Ba-zinga.

  38. Liquor Luge says:

    12K in property taxes to live in the RE version of a sphinct@r. Good God.

  39. grim says:

    Don’t see anything in mod, it might have went right to blacklist, sorry.

  40. Liquor Luge says:

    Check your blacklist for the human race, grim.

  41. Liquor Luge says:

    “So with all of this pessimism behind us, does that leave us more optimistic heading into 2015?

    We don’t know; as frequent readers know, we do not pretend to be able to predict the future. We do know, however, that with $11 trillion in liquidity injected just by the world’s developed central banks, and the tens of trillions of credit money created (and misallocated) by China – a country which was the world’s growth dynamo for the past three decades and which is now rapidly slowing down – the entire world is floating on an ocean of excess money, which for one more year has succeeded in masking just how ugly the truth beneath the calm surface is. Sooner or later, the tide always comes out, and those swimming naked are always exposed. However, this time it will be the very final backstoppers of the status quo regime, the central banking emperors of the New Normal, who are finally revealed as wearing absolutely nothing. What happens then, and when that happens, is anyone’s guess. But, as we have promised – and delivered – every year for the past six, we will be there to document every aspect of it.

    Finally, and as always, we wish all our readers the best of luck and success in 2015, and leave off with our unwavering year-end promise: Zero Hedge will be there each and every day helping readers expose, unravel and comprehend the fallacy, fiction, fraud and farce that the system is reduced to (ab)using each and every day just to keep the grand tragicomedy going for at least one more day.”

  42. Juice Box says:

    Anyone ever find out who is behind Zero Hedge?

  43. jj says:

    Happy New Year’s MOFOs. Was in city today chilling and drove in and roads were empty. Saw a Hipster in a Museum using an old fashioned Poloroid Camera to take shots and then waving and blowing as it dried. God Bless those guys. I hope Hipsters and Big Boooties are fads that die in 2015.

    Peace out 2014 and lets rock it 2015 with some fat gains

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