From MarketWatch:
Where house prices are most undervalued (and overvalued)
U.S. house prices are only undervalued by around 2% on average, according to the latest research, but they’re still overvalued — and undervalued — by double-digit percentages in some metro areas.
American house prices are on average almost back to normal in the fourth quarter of 2014, after being undervalued by as much as 5% one year ago and 3% in the previous quarter, but the extent they’re undervalued or overvalued still varies dramatically among the 100 largest metro areas, according to real-estate website Trulia. In the first quarter of 2006 at the peak of the housing market bubble, U.S. house prices were overvalued by 34% before dropping to 14% in the first quarter of 2012.
“The more prices are overvalued, the greater the chance that a bubble might be forming,” says Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia. Overvalued doesn’t necessarily mean those homes are unaffordable. New York and Boston both look several percentage points undervalued relative to long-term fundamentals, but they’re far more expensive than Houston or Austin. Trulia analyzed home prices in 100 metro areas relative to fundamentals such as jobs, income growth and household formation and rents.
Home prices in 70 of the 100 largest metros are less than 10% over- or undervalued, Trulia found, the highest number since the recovery began. Home buyers making the U.S. median income and purchasing the typical U.S. home spend 15% of their income on their monthly house payment (excluding insurance and taxes) down from the historical norm of 22% during the pre-bubble boom of 1985 to 1999, according to separate data released in December by housing website Zillow.
…
In Trulia’s latest report, the most overvalued market in the U.S. was Austin, Texas (overvalued by 16%), followed by Orange County, Calif. (15%), Los Angeles (13%), Honolulu (13%) and San Francisco (12%). In fact, the median price for single-family homes in Austin was $245,000 in November 2014 versus $189,300 in November 2011, while the average price was $251,838 in 2014 versus $311,222 in 2011, according to data released last week by the Austin Board of Realtors.
…
Almost all of the most undervalued metro areas are in the Midwest and New England, and almost all were either in Ohio or Connecticut, Kolko says. Cleveland was undervalued by 20% (versus 13% 2006), Akron was undervalued by 17% (versus 12% in 2006) and Dayton was undervalued by 17% (compared with just 8% in 2006). Hartford was 15% undervalued in the fourth quarter of 2014 (versus 20% in 2006) while Fairfield County was undervalued by 14% (versus 30% in 2006).
NY Metro 5% undervalued
Newark Metro 8% undervalued
Camden Metro 15% undervalued
Philly Metro 2% undervalued
Montgomery-Bucks-Chester 9% undervalued
Did someone throw pumpkin this bone yet? From the WSJ:
Job Openings Rise Near 14-Year High In November
Job openings rose to their highest level in nearly 14 years at the end of November, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
Openings rose to a seasonally adjusted level of 4.97 million in November, their highest level since January 2001, according to the Labor Department’s monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, known as Jolts.
The number of openings rose 27% from a year earlier and stood 15% above the level from December 2007, when the last recession officially began.
The uptick in workplace openings meant that there were around 1.8 unemployed workers in November for every opening, the lowest ratio in almost seven years. At the worst point in the recession, there were nearly seven unemployed workers for every available job opening.
For months, economists have said that strong improvement in demand for workers should translate into higher wages. So far, it hasn’t.
“The increase in job openings is a favorable sign for upcoming payroll growth and perhaps a good sign for earnings growth,” said Daniel Silver, an economist at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Still, there hasn’t been a strong relationship between openings and wage gains in the current cycle, he said.
How about this one:
Jobs Machine in U.S. Created More Than Burger Flippers Last Year
By Carlos Torres January 13, 2015
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2015-01-13/jobs-machine-in-u-dot-s-dot-created-more-than-burger-flippers-last-year
The biggest private employment increase in 17 years was driven by gains among above-average paying jobs, dispelling the popular notion that the U.S. is turning into a nation of fast-food workers.
Industries that pay employees more than the average for all workers accounted for 66 percent of total jobs created in 2014, based on data compiled by Bloomberg from Labor Department records. Business services — staffing agencies, accountants, consultants and computer-system designers — and goods producers, including construction firms and manufacturers, were among those hiring the most.
The pickup indicates the high-flying jobs that were hit hardest during the worst recession in the post-World War II era are making a comeback as the economic expansion gathers momentum. An unexpected slump in wage growth last month had raised some concern that increases in employment were skewed toward lower-paying occupations.
anon (the good one) says:
January 13, 2015 at 10:00 am
@BarackObama:
Over 58 straight months of growth, the private sector has added 11.2 million jobs.
@AntoineGara: JPMorgan’s dimon expects more wage inflation, calls it “a little bit of a good thing”
Charlie Hebdo Special Edition Featuring Muhammad Cover Goes on Sale
More than 700,000 copies were sold in the first hour, French television channel BFM reported.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/paris-magazine-attack/charlie-hebdo-special-edition-featuring-muhammad-cover-goes-sale-n285791
At least one news outlet has the b@lls to show it:
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/charlie-hebdo-survivors-edition-cover-revealed-prophet-muhammed-holding-jesuischarlie-sign-1483098
(even though you have to click through a warning to see it)
[1] So Camden is up to be gentrified next?
The Pumpkinator will get a woody when he reads that.
@AntoineGara: JPMorgan’s dimon expects more wage inflation, calls it “a little bit of a good thing”
S&P Futures are down 24 pts with Dow Futures down 230 pts.
Hang on to your hats at the open!!!
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The 30-year yield fell to an all-time low Wednesday morning after dismal retail-sales data raised fresh doubts about the strength of the U.S. economy.
The 30-year TMUBMUSD30Y, -3.42% plunged 8.3 basis points to 2.396%.
Construction underway on commuter rail line to Sussex County
http://www.nj.com/traffic/index.ssf/2015/01/construction_underway_on_commuter_rail_line_to_sussex_county.html#comments
How low can you go?
Oil Collapse of 1986 Shows Rebound Could Be Years Away
The last time excess supply caused a plunge in oil, it took almost five years for prices to recover.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows how West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil benchmark, tumbled 69 percent from $31.82 a barrel in November 1985 to $9.75 in April 1986 when Saudi Arabia, tiring of cutting output to support prices, flooded the market. Prices didn’t claw back the losses until 1990. Oil has dropped 57 percent since June and OPEC members say they’re willing to let prices sink further.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-13/oil-s-1986-collapse-signals-rebound-years-away-chart-of-the-day.html
Being a research analyst is completely different from managing money.
How Meredith Whitney’s American Revival Sputtered in Debut Year
It took less than a year for Meredith Whitney’s hedge fund to begin unraveling…. Starting her debut hedge fund without a staff of analysts to help choose investments and relying too much on one investor’s money helped lead Whitney astray, according to a person with direct knowledge of her firm. Her office on New York’s Madison Avenue is on the market, her two top executives left and the fund tied to Platt’s BlueCrest Capital Management sued in Bermuda last month to get its $46 million back.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-12/how-meredith-whitney-s-american-revival-sputtered-in-debut-year.html
Any linkage between the demise of hedge funds and the drop in oil prices….
NY Metro 5% undervalued
Mortgage rates are practically at zero, there’s absolutely nothing out there and we’re led to believe that the NY Metro area is undervalued. Think about that concept and I want you gals and guys to think about which industry is feeding you this information.
16 – You don’t think that San Fran or Austin are overvalued?
The demise of hedge funds.
From my admittedly anecdotal perspective, hedge funds are the Gerber life insurance policies of the rich. Just because someone is wealthy does not mean they are less likely to be suckered than the uneducated schlub living check to check. Just the title alone (hedge fund) conjures up images of wealth and high returns. Unfortunately, what I’ve actually witnessed is the stark opposite.
In Glen Ridge, I live among many hedge fund managers an Wall Street sales guys. Many of them c0ach Gator Jr.’s sports teams. There are two things they all seem to have in common. One, they are way more competitive than they should be when c0aching nine year olds. Two, they all do pretty well in the salary department, but none of them come across as terribly intelligent. Also, many are former college or pro athletes. Why I would trust a minor league hockey player or college baseball pitcher with my livelihood is beyond me.
We had this one new member of our investment club who was a bit of a day trader on his own and was being sponsored by a hedge fund startup to take CFA classes. He was completely sold on technical analysis. Well we occasionally run stock picking contests where each member of the club picks one equity and whichever member’s stock performs the best after four years wins a prize. We also have an annual performance prize as well. Well budding hedge fund guy picked TITN. The contest ended a couple of weeks ago and he finished dead last with a total return of -46%. Our winner picked GMCR which finished up 175%. That member had to leave the club about 6 months after he joined as his hedge fund was starting up and required him not to have any investments outside of the hedge fund (or so he claimed). I saw this genius got to ring the bell on Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago.
I remember reading a stat back in the 90s that revealed that 80% of investment clubs beat the major indexes while only 20% of mutual funds were able to beat them. Perhaps it has a lot to do with management and accounting fees. I’d like to continue to believe that it also has a lot to do with the fact that these managers are no more savvy than any individual who chooses to spend just a little of their spare time educating themselves on disciplined investment strategies instead of watching the Big Bang Theory.
I’d argue most major metro areas with strong job markets are overvalued and it is precisely as Eddie puts it a function of low interest loans. The way I see it, housing is a function of income level combined with rates, which determines the payment one can afford. At current rates the mortgage on a million dollar home is pretty affordable for someone making 200k. The utter lack of inventory and the necessity to purchase a home to live in especially the crowd with the good income(they need to be here to make the money) yields average sales prices that are above what they would be in a normal market. More so than ever home prices are correlated to rates, the nature of this market is such that anything nearing reasonable price is sold within days and the rest is just languishing.
[6] expat
The ultimate irony for the Charlie Hebdo staff was that the best thing they could have done for their publication was to get killed. Financially, the magazine was in the proverbial toilet and close to going under when the gunmen attacked. Had the radicals ignored the insults, Charlie Hebdo (the magazine) would have died a quiet and natural death. I don’t think this will propel Charlie Hebdo to perpetual life but it bought them at least a year or two.
17 – I know nothing about those markets nor what psychology drives them. The same hardcore “data” that deems an area overvalued is probably just as incorrect as one that is proclaimed to be undervalued. As for our area, I can say unequivocally that a market correction has still failed to occur due to artificial life support. There’s nothing to buy which means the market is sick. It’s all I need to know and I’ve given my own experiences and those of family and friends to back it up.
jcer – [19],
Exactly!
[4] twitless
“Over 58 straight months of growth, the private sector has added 11.2 million jobs.”
Just don’t ask the Unforgivable Questions:
“What would that number have been under a different regime?”
“How many of those jobs were attributable to industries the administration disfavored but was unable to restrain (like oil fracking)?”
“How many of those jobs replaced comparable jobs? Or was it lower level and part time jobs taking the place of higher paying [formerly] permanent jobs?”
Asking questions like these will get you kicked off the press bus. That’s why they aren’t asked.
Wow. 2.5% on a ten year and 2.75 on a fifteen year are available.
Eddie it’s locked at all levels. I have not seen anything worthwhile even at a million that would allow me to sell my current place. I have more than a few neighbors in the same boat, they’d like to trade up, could sell their place, but haven’t seen anything worthwhile to buy. We could get decent money but then what is available to buy? The answer is a whole lot of nothing. So there is simply no inventory from 300k on up, what is the impetus for this I don’t know but it is a vicious cycle, no inventory begets even less inventory as the market is not functioning. We’d like to buy and have the money to do so but are glad that we do not have to because there is almost nothing out there we’d want.
Give me a 1 handle on a ten year and I’m refinancing again!
[1] grim
“Montgomery-Bucks-Chester 9% undervalued”
Interesting. I like the idea that I could sell for a profit right now but still don’t know where the growth is going to come in the Routes 1/202/30/95 corridors to justify it. This area is losing some big name employers in Pharma, and has a hard time attracting business that naturally wants to gravitate to Where The Action Is (and can afford to do so if they aren’t generating net profits yet). Also, infrastructure (i.e., roads) won’t permit much more expansion than has already occurred unless you build out.
Conversely, in my neck of the woods, the construction vehicles are everywhere and formerly vacant tracts are being developed. And there is building out.
But all this building must be sold, and the question remains “Sell? Sell to whom?” That I don’t know the answer to.
jcer [25],
You say it much, much better than I can and summed up my situation exactly.
Here ya go. This is what your “undervalued” million dollar house looks like. Kids, this is where comedy meets tragedy:
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1443053&dayssince=&countysearch=false
Most investment banks require you to disclose all of your investments outside of the firm and before you can trade any security, you need get approval in order to do so. It’s not unlikely that they would follow the same principals. Having said that, a lot of the PMs that work at HFs used to work at the prop desk (when they were allowed) at big banks.
They are some super smart guys that made millions so I would trust their investment judgment but like they say, the past performance is no prediction of the future. I know some HFs have consistently delivered double digit returns even in down markets but it’s not the norm. Some are still clawing back from their watermark levels.
Now that’s a railroad kitchen.
[27] Comrade Nom Deplume
I’m in Montgomery County and the vacant lots are still being built out as well. They are selling to someone. From talking to neighbors, the employees at the Pharma companies are driving the market. They purchase, if they move to another location as part of the relo package, the company buys them out, and they sell below market value.
They purchase, if they move to another location as part of the relo package, the company buys them out, and they sell below market value.
Impossible! They are 9% undervalued.
[29] Fast Eddie
What are you waiting on? Did you see the stainless steel appliances? And a heated garage and 6 zone sprinklers? You have to admit it’s a sweet house I’m not sure what justified the price change from $889k to $995k?
29 – Eddie,
You are forgetting to price in the included “Security System” shown in the pool picture that the owners will be leaving behind for you.
New York and Boston both look several percentage points undervalued relative to long-term fundamentals….
Can you imagine a more witless, empty-headed statement? Can you imagine some silly b.astard attemtpting to make a convincing argument from this blurb?
That’s what I heard, I haven’t been in the area long enough to see it. I assume the purchases were 5 to 10 years ago and they are selling now.
I know two people (transferred out the area) in my development have decided to keep their home and rent it out.
Nom, isn’t this your territory?
Citizenship Renunciation Fee Hiked 422%, And You Can’t Come Back
The Canada example mention in the article is striking. I have a hard time believing that Canada has a lower tax rate for HNW individuals, so I imagine the issue/benefit must be taxation of extraterritorial income and assets.
response to my little LIRR story from yesterday……
Starbucks can’t be too happy as we all know they are anti 2nd amendment, publicly. (unless maybe for their benefit) I would station the cops at the dunkin donuts around the corner, f^ck starbucks.
Hey……wait a minute……
Libturd in Union says:
January 14, 2015 at 10:33 am
That member had to leave the club about 6 months after he joined as his hedge fund was starting up and required him not to have any investments outside of the hedge fund (or so he claimed). I saw this genius got to ring the bell on Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago.
Also my son predicted 42-35 OSU, not 42-20 the actual score……..he got credit for the OSU pick, nailing the points they scored, and the fact that Oregon didn’t cover for the tiebreakers…..
Price Value
Try that again using a different notation..
Price =/= Value
also….it is college application season and I am talking to seniors again….most are just fine, but the hubris of some of these clowns is just mind boggling….
Stu: note about investing…..a general trend…..there is so much passive investing right now that a lot of fundamental analysis is being undervalued…….at its simplest level, there is a strong influence toward investing into companies in the exact proportions of the S&P 500 Index as an example…..it is an arbitrage opportunity, but as we know…the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent……sooner or later it will matter (a lot)…..
Chi [45];
Not sure I’m clear about what you mean by “undervalued”; the analysis is undervalued, or the company analyzed is undervalued? I think you’re saying that the tide of passive investment money flowing into index funds, or trying to act like an index fund, is lifting all boats, the dogs along with the thoroughbreds. If that’s the case, that the winners stand to do better than current analysis would have one believe?
When the tide goes out, we learn who’s been swimming naked…
It’s coming!!! Thanks for the share.
grim says:
January 14, 2015 at 6:43 am
Did someone throw pumpkin this bone yet? From the WSJ:
Job Openings Rise Near 14-Year High In November
Job openings rose to their highest level in nearly 14 years at the end of November, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
Openings rose to a seasonally adjusted level of 4.97 million in November, their highest level since January 2001, according to the Labor Department’s monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, known as Jolts.
The number of openings rose 27% from a year earlier and stood 15% above the level from December 2007, when the last recession officially began.
The uptick in workplace openings meant that there were around 1.8 unemployed workers in November for every opening, the lowest ratio in almost seven years. At the worst point in the recession, there were nearly seven unemployed workers for every available job opening.
For months, economists have said that strong improvement in demand for workers should translate into higher wages. So far, it hasn’t.
“The increase in job openings is a favorable sign for upcoming payroll growth and perhaps a good sign for earnings growth,” said Daniel Silver, an economist at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Still, there hasn’t been a strong relationship between openings and wage gains in the current cycle, he said.
As a parent the best piece of advice for your kids is “Never date anyone, you would be afraid to break up with!”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/14/kurt-busch-ex-patricia-driscoll-assassin_n_6469286.html
Example of a JJ on the spot hire no interview needed…..
http://nypost.com/2015/01/14/meet-the-adult-model-with-the-largest-fake-boobs-in-the-world/
Still think wage inflation is not going to happen?
Toxic Crayons says:
January 14, 2015 at 7:45 am
How about this one:
Jobs Machine in U.S. Created More Than Burger Flippers Last Year
By Carlos Torres January 13, 2015
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2015-01-13/jobs-machine-in-u-dot-s-dot-created-more-than-burger-flippers-last-year
The biggest private employment increase in 17 years was driven by gains among above-average paying jobs, dispelling the popular notion that the U.S. is turning into a nation of fast-food workers.
Industries that pay employees more than the average for all workers accounted for 66 percent of total jobs created in 2014, based on data compiled by Bloomberg from Labor Department records. Business services — staffing agencies, accountants, consultants and computer-system designers — and goods producers, including construction firms and manufacturers, were among those hiring the most.
The pickup indicates the high-flying jobs that were hit hardest during the worst recession in the post-World War II era are making a comeback as the economic expansion gathers momentum. An unexpected slump in wage growth last month had raised some concern that increases in employment were skewed toward lower-paying occupations.
Stu: these announcers are hilarious……”I can name that tune in one note”….”spittin’ chicklets….”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ys-p6DSaqzA
Boom!!! How on point was I with my analysis? The big boys are finally using some logic and getting this show on the road. Here is my write up. Dimon finally stopped letting greed blind him. He now realizes cutting too much is no good for anyone. Just like giving outrageous raises is not good for anyone. You can’t cut your way to growth based on the current problems with the market. You cut your way to positive results when the economy is overheating and inflation is starting to get out of control. You don’t cut when the economy is begging for wage growth to spur demand to fix the imbalance currently causing harm to the economy.
The Great Pumpkin says:
January 13, 2015 at 9:49 pm
You know I do. Another article providing evidence that wage inflation is coming. The smart wealthy are finally realizing that it is either deflation or provide some wage inflation to spur demand. Deflation you can lose it all. Wage inflation, short term loss, that is recovered a 100% plus interest as the market cycle returns it back to their pockets as the economy improves. Make the smart choice. Stop shipping jobs, cutting wages, and importing cheap labor. You pushed too much for too long and have now created massive income inequality that threatens to send the economy into a deflationary spiral. Just suck it up and give the damn raises.
I’m a 150% convinced wage inflation is already on the way.
anon (the good one) says:
January 14, 2015 at 8:34 am
@AntoineGara: JPMorgan’s dimon expects more wage inflation, calls it “a little bit of a good thing”
lol…you know it!
The Original NJ ExPat – Bow Down to the King says:
January 14, 2015 at 9:01 am
The Pumpkinator will get a woody when he reads that.
@AntoineGara: JPMorgan’s dimon expects more wage inflation, calls it “a little bit of a good thing”
Great write up!! So on point with the technical analysis crowd. They are so easy to manipulate because you know how they will react based on the chart.
Libturd in Union says:
January 14, 2015 at 10:33 am
The demise of hedge funds.
From my admittedly anecdotal perspective, hedge funds are the Gerber life insurance policies of the rich. Just because someone is wealthy does not mean they are less likely to be suckered than the uneducated schlub living check to check. Just the title alone (hedge fund) conjures up images of wealth and high returns. Unfortunately, what I’ve actually witnessed is the stark opposite.
In Glen Ridge, I live among many hedge fund managers an Wall Street sales guys. Many of them c0ach Gator Jr.’s sports teams. There are two things they all seem to have in common. One, they are way more competitive than they should be when c0aching nine year olds. Two, they all do pretty well in the salary department, but none of them come across as terribly intelligent. Also, many are former college or pro athletes. Why I would trust a minor league hockey player or college baseball pitcher with my livelihood is beyond me.
We had this one new member of our investment club who was a bit of a day trader on his own and was being sponsored by a hedge fund startup to take CFA classes. He was completely sold on technical analysis. Well we occasionally run stock picking contests where each member of the club picks one equity and whichever member’s stock performs the best after four years wins a prize. We also have an annual performance prize as well. Well budding hedge fund guy picked TITN. The contest ended a couple of weeks ago and he finished dead last with a total return of -46%. Our winner picked GMCR which finished up 175%. That member had to leave the club about 6 months after he joined as his hedge fund was starting up and required him not to have any investments outside of the hedge fund (or so he claimed). I saw this genius got to ring the bell on Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago.
I remember reading a stat back in the 90s that revealed that 80% of investment clubs beat the major indexes while only 20% of mutual funds were able to beat them. Perhaps it has a lot to do with management and accounting fees. I’d like to continue to believe that it also has a lot to do with the fact that these managers are no more savvy than any individual who chooses to spend just a little of their spare time educating themselves on disciplined investment strategies instead of watching the Big Bang Theory.
This is going to be an interesting trial. Even smart math geeks can get into trouble. See the Feds followed their script to the tee…first step is character assignation.
———
The Most Important Trial in America
One of the potentially most important and far-reaching trials in recent memory has just begun without much fanfare. And if you care about due process, Fourth Amendment protections against illegal searches, the limits of government surveillance, and Internet freedom, you should pay attention.
Ross Ulbricht, 29, stands accused by the federal government of being “Dread Pirate Roberts,” the pseudonymous proprietor of the notorious website Silk Road. Launched in 2011 and shuttered in 2013, Silk Road was known as the Amazon or eBay of the “darknet,” an anonymous, Bitcoin-enabled marketplace where “buying drugs online became safe, easy, and boring.”
Soon after, stories began to circulate about how a mild-mannered math whiz had transmogrified into a vengeful drug lord who ordered executions of a half-dozen real and imagined rivals. That story arc is compelling, for sure: Ulbricht was literally an Eagle Scout who was constantly doing charity work before allegedly becoming a violence-prone Professor Moriarity of Internet crime.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/01/14/the-most-important-trial-in-america.html#
I couldn’t have said it better.
The main impact of the mortgage-interest deduction and other subsidies is not that they get people to buy houses. It’s that they get people to buy bigger, costlier houses than they otherwise would.” (James Surowiecki)
Don’t stress, it will get better. Wage inflation will get this moving in time. I know the inventory is terrible. Not many people want to sell, and if they do want to sell, their home is a disaster. Just focus on an area that you want to live and hire the agent with network to get you what you want. You will have to be patient, but something will come. Going through the same old listings day after day will not get you a house. You also have to suck it up and expect to not hit every need on your list for a home. You have to give and take. Nothing is perfect out there. Remember, all the good land in northern nj has already been built on. It is not a walk in the park when buying real estate in northern nj. The inventory is tight in good times and bad times. Just the nature of the beast for our area.
jcer says:
January 14, 2015 at 10:54 am
Eddie it’s locked at all levels. I have not seen anything worthwhile even at a million that would allow me to sell my current place. I have more than a few neighbors in the same boat, they’d like to trade up, could sell their place, but haven’t seen anything worthwhile to buy. We could get decent money but then what is available to buy? The answer is a whole lot of nothing. So there is simply no inventory from 300k on up, what is the impetus for this I don’t know but it is a vicious cycle, no inventory begets even less inventory as the market is not functioning. We’d like to buy and have the money to do so but are glad that we do not have to because there is almost nothing out there we’d want.
[38] moose
Yes, I follow these issues. The fee hike isn’t new, that was done last year in response to a significant rise in volume of said applications.
The fact that Ver was denied a non-immigrant visa was interesting. The Reid Amendment permits State to deny entry to people who renounce citizenship if it was due to taxation. To date, there have not been any notable instances where it was enforced; this may be the first. And I suspect if it gets bad enough, it will lead to some diplomatic rows between Foggy Bottom and other capitals.
[38] moose,
You are correct about canadian taxation, it isn’t any less onerous on domestic income, but it is a territorial system so non-canadian assets and earnings aren’t taxed (I think–I am not a canadian tax lawyer).
Canada, until recently, had a pretty popular investor/entrepreneur visa program. Inexplicably, they shut it down. I would have thought pressure from Washington, but now I think it may have been pressure from Beijing as this program was most popular with Chinese nationals.
[49] ChiFi
Judging by those lips, she has a thing for silicone . . .
God, that was hard to look at. All of it. Bigger isn’t always better.
Pumpkin no need to buy…prices aren’t going anywhere. I agree that the power that be have hung all of their hopes on inflation. I think wages will moderately grow and have utter confidence that I am not missing an opportunity by not buying now. The truth is when I last bought it wasn’t as bad a time to buy and I am wishing I had bought some of the larger more expensive places I looked at. Rates are playing a big part in this..right now the market is functioning like a Tijuana straw market, you look at a sombrero, they initial price is $150, if you actually succeed in buying it you’ll pay $15. The asking prices are out of hand, I’m talking 2005-2006 prices+15%, the spread between bid and ask is very high now, we will see how it plays out. There is still land to build on and the economy in NJ is not really great…NYC is driving the proverbial bus here….the bus is being driven by DeBlasio and Al Sharpton…I wouldn’t advise hanging my hat on that.
60, that picture was gross. I don’t know how she found a doctor to do that. Really nasty to look at and probably dangerous as well.
Notre Dame Claims Lowest 30-Year Taxable Yield In History
by Caitlin Devitt
JAN 14, 2015 2:04pm ET
The University of Notre Dame’s sale Tuesday of $400 million of taxable bonds won the lowest corporate yield for a 30-year maturity in history, according to the finance team.
Investors are going to get screwed on this bond
Anyone have any insight on the apple ridge country club lot? Im hearing the plan is to turn it into spring valley. If that’s the case fast eddie may want to wait out moving to upper saddle river/Ramsey/Mahwah as the tax drain will be enormous.
Do they not teach hand to hand combat to police officers? Seriously, you can’t take down a 75 year old with a knife?
————–
An Old Bridge police officer shot and killed a 75-year-old man inside his home after the man attacked a family member and threatened a police officer with a knife, according to the Middlesex County Prosecutor’s Office.
Talbot Schroeder of Cedar Grove Place was pronounced dead at the scene at 6:27 a.m. after an Old Bridge police officer repeatedly warned him to drop the knife, according to county Prosecutor Andrew C. Carey.
http://www.nj.com/middlesex/index.ssf/2015/01/old_bridge_police_shoot_kill_75-year-old_man_threa.html#incart_m-rpt-1
My father is in his 70s, if he came at me with a knife he could probably kill me. I know plenty of 70 year olds that could probably still tussle pretty good if they needed to.
RE 65 :FKA 2010 Buyer says:
January 14, 2015 at 2:35 pm
Do they not teach hand to hand combat to police officers? Seriously, you can’t take down a 75 year old with a knife?
Are you seriously asking this question? If a man attacked you with a knife and you had a legal fire-arm holstered and loaded on your hip, you would do the noble thing and give the attacker the advantage? Afterwards, you could pick flowers with all the other princes in the land. Get real chief. Like the Casino line goes – You go at Tommy with fists, he comes back with a bat, you bring a bat and he brings a gun, and if you bring a gun you better kill ’em.
Republican N.J. senator rips Christie over State of the State speech
http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/01/conservative_nj_senator_rips_christie_over_state_o.html
TRENTON — Gov. Chris Christie’s State of the State speech on Tuesday pushed one of New Jersey’s most conservative state senators over the edge, leading to the harshest criticism of the governor ever from a Republican state lawmaker.
State Sen. Michael Doherty (R-Warren) said Christie when he first ran in 2009 “sold himself to the people of New Jersey that he was going to change it.”
“And he didn’t,” Doherty said in a phone interview.
“The governor’s possible national ambitions have distracted him from doing the job he was hired to do in the State of New Jersey,” he said.
In an interview with PolitickerNJ.com published this morning, Doherty was quoted calling Christie a “failed” governor. Asked about it by NJ Advance Media, Doherty declined to repeat that exact word. But he nonetheless offered a scorching review of Christie’s speech — in particular his focus on Camden.
“I don’t know that I particularly said the word ‘failed,’” Doherty said. “What I said was that Gov. Christie has missed his opportunity to make a great mark on the State of New Jersey.”
Most New Jersey Republicans have been loath to publicly criticize Christie, and many on Tuesday issued statements praising his speech and record. State Sen. Dawn Addiego (R-Burlington), for example, said Christie “has dedicated his efforts to make New Jersey affordable and to provide opportunity for the families who live here.”
And Doherty has been the most critical of Christie among Republican lawmakers in the past. He is the only Republican who has so far agreed to vote to override Christie’s veto of a bill to overhaul the Port Authority. And Doherty in 2009 also supported Christie’s primary rival for the GOP nomination for governor, Steve Lonegan.
Still, Doherty’s past comments were restrained compared to the torrent he released today.
Doherty, who represents a largely rural district, says his main frustration is that New Jersey’s poor, urban school districts are still getting a disproportionate amount of state aid thanks to a series of Supreme Court decisions dating back to the 1970s known as Abbott v. Burke.
“For him yesterday to hold up Camden County government as an example of what we should all be? Give me a break. It’s one of the most wasteful and corrupt governments in the State of New Jersey,” Doherty said. “How long can the suburban and rural towns be told keep funneling your money into the cities, we’re just around the corner, everything’s going to recover and everything’s going to come back to normal?”
Doherty was particularly angry that Hoboken— once impoverished but now a wealthy New York City bedroom community — is still considered an “Abbott district” and has state-funded universal pre-K. (One town in Doherty’s district, Phillipsburg, is also an Abbott district).
“We’re struggling tremendously. Houses in my district are selling for less than they did a quarter century ago. There has been no economic recovery. We’re getting our clocks cleaned by Pennslyvania. They’re so close,” Doherty said. “We need help.”
Christie was critical of those decisions during his first run for governor in 2009. And while that led to some battles with Democrats who control the state Senate over Supreme Court nominees, Doherty said Christie “didn’t fight hard enough” to change the court’s makeup.
For instance, Doherty noted that Christie declined to re-nominate former Justice Helen Hoens to the bench.
“The one justice that wrote an opinion that all of us in the suburbs and rural areas agree with regarding school funding and challenging the urban areas to do better than they had was Justice Helen Hoens,” Doherty said.
Doherty said Christie’s appeal to New Jersey’s urban mayors to follow his example of working with Camden to overhaul its police force and attract businesses with economic incentives underscored his feeling that he was ignoring the state’s suburban and rural areas.
“I was very alarmed when Gov. Christie said to be ‘Big cities, come to me and we’re rebuild you,” Doherty said. “When does it ever end? These suburban areas of New Jersey are struggling tremendously. They never recovered from the Great Recession. And we’re told keep sending the money in.”
Doherty said Christie has “did not follow through his promise to fight the corruption and break up the status quo.”
There are some political undercurrents in Doherty’s criticism. Doherty was a supporter of Texas Rep. Ron Paul’s campaigns for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008 and 2012. Paul’s son, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, is considered a likely presidential candidate in 2016. But Doherty said that had nothing to do with his criticism.
“I’m not supporting anybody at this point,” he said.
A spokesman for Christie declined to comment.
@Pissed_Pat: Like any Republican, Chris Christie can’t win the presidency without the South. Which is filled with everyone who fled New Jersey…
effectivement payé les Classics dans la littérature: Jane Austen ElecBook Jane Austen: Pride and Prejudice de Jane Austen: Pride and Prejudice L’étonnement des dames était exactement ce qu’il voulait; celle de Mme Bennet peut-être surpassant le reste; mais quand le premier tumulte de joie était plus, elle a commencé à déclarer que ce était ce qu’elle avait prévu tout en. «Que ce était bon en vous, mon cher M. Bennet! Mais je savais
Lots of potential here Eddie:
301 Meadowbrook Ave Ridgewood, NJ 07450
$599,900
Gas heat, 1/4 acre level lot, room for expansion, walk to park
Yeah baby. Dow sucks ass. Healthcare up for the day. Burn Banks Burn. Go big Pharma.
Wrong!! You are not paying the premium for the house. You are paying for the land in that location. I know that location well. Buy this home, knock it down. Keep a wall of the existing foundation so that it’s not considered new construction. Build a 600,000 home and sell it for 1.9 million. Or just live in it, and bask in the sunshine of living in a beautiful new home in a great location for 1.6 million. That is one of the nicest areas of Ridgewood. They piss money in that section of town.
Fast Eddie says:
January 14, 2015 at 11:12 am
Here ya go. This is what your “undervalued” million dollar house looks like. Kids, this is where comedy meets tragedy:
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1443053&dayssince=&countysearch=false
72. I just sent that property to my S.O.
Rock on
Yes, no rush to buy. You never want to rush a big purchase. The thing is, this window of opportunity is open, but it won’t be open forever. Right now, it’s starting to slowly close, and when it starts to close it will get to a point where it starts to close fast. The inventory will get worst because the competition will increase. Joe public is going to catch on that the economy is improving. This will cause them to hold out for higher prices. They waited this long, mine as well wait two more years for our price, will be the thinking. As more people get jobs and raises, combined with cheap energy, you will see a lot of people start looking to buy. This will be the start of the next bubble. It will come quick and fast, don’t miss the train. The investors that bought at the bottom will be unloading on the run up to the lines of people looking to buy. Shi! never changes. It’s a cycle.
As for land, every piece of good land in northern nj has been built on. The land for sale is the land no developers wanted in the last run up. In this next run up, they will buy this land and build because nothing else is left.
Have faith in the north jersey economy. This thing has been chugging forever. You don’t think the nay Sayers said the same thing about jersey when manufacturing left? We are going through a new period in which pharmaceuticals are leaving. They will leave a vacuum in a highly desirable area for business, and the vacuum will be filled with a new industry. What that is, I don’t know. But I know what will happen. Remember, pharmaceuticals replaced the vacuum left by the factories.
jcer says:
January 14, 2015 at 2:09 pm
Pumpkin no need to buy…prices aren’t going anywhere. I agree that the power that be have hung all of their hopes on inflation. I think wages will moderately grow and have utter confidence that I am not missing an opportunity by not buying now. The truth is when I last bought it wasn’t as bad a time to buy and I am wishing I had bought some of the larger more expensive places I looked at. Rates are playing a big part in this..right now the market is functioning like a Tijuana straw market, you look at a sombrero, they initial price is $150, if you actually succeed in buying it you’ll pay $15. The asking prices are out of hand, I’m talking 2005-2006 prices+15%, the spread between bid and ask is very high now, we will see how it plays out. There is still land to build on and the economy in NJ is not really great…NYC is driving the proverbial bus here….the bus is being driven by DeBlasio and Al Sharpton…I wouldn’t advise hanging my hat on that.
Lol..nice. Not saying this as an attack, but this is what I meant when I said that fast eddie doesn’t have the hustler mentality a while back. There is no way you can look for a house for 7 years and not get something. In 7 years, you should have found at least one gem of deal.
Essex says:
January 14, 2015 at 4:12 pm
72. I just sent that property to my S.O.
Rock on
Pumpkin Head,
They piss money in that section of town.
The last person who told me that was a fat hag house agent at an open house a few years ago. Last I heard, she was in some dive bar on Tonnelle Avenue s.ucking beer f.arts off of bar stools for a living.
Statler [70],
Thank you for forwarding the information. I’ll take a look.
fast eddie doesn’t have the hustler mentality…
Tell that to the guy standing on the train platform in Glen Rock whose net worth is the same as a 16 year old girl because he fell for a line of sh1t and got swindled.
My advice, bring balance to your analysis. You are great at spotting the crap. You are an expert at pointing out the negatives. Now focus on trying to see the positive side. People with imaginations are the ones who make the money. Get creative. If the positives outweigh the negatives, do it.
Fast Eddie says:
January 14, 2015 at 4:52 pm
fast eddie doesn’t have the hustler mentality…
Tell that to the guy standing on the train platform in Glen Rock whose net worth is the same as a 16 year old girl because he fell for a line of sh1t and got swindled.
You would be a great comedian. You have some of the best lines out there.
Fast Eddie says:
January 14, 2015 at 4:52 pm
fast eddie doesn’t have the hustler mentality…
Tell that to the guy standing on the train platform in Glen Rock whose net worth is the same as a 16 year old girl because he fell for a line of sh1t and got swindled.
(79) That kind of person is called a Devils Advocate. Knew one well at AT&T when I worked there in the late 70s. The guy would tell you everything that could go wrong with a design but never offered a single constructive suggestion. Mildly put, he was just a debugger.
I should run for governor. I would make us into a superpower.
I would funnel all money into education and infrastructure. First couple years will be painful, but the fruits of our investments would make us into a powerhouse economy. It’s all about keeping it simple. Education and infrastructure, the rest will fall in place like dominoes. Wish I could find a politician that believed in this approach.
Toxic Crayons says:
January 14, 2015 at 3:25 pm
Republican N.J. senator rips Christie over State of the State speech
Libturd,
If your guy fell in love with technical analysis, he didn’t get it from the CFA program. I wonder if he ever passed all 3 levels. Technical analysis is pretty much like running horoscopes. I wouldn’t hire anyone who takes it seriously. Works great for televised BS artists who need to make up something that they don’t know anything about.
There are a lot of people on Wall St. and investment management that are smart on tests, but really don’t have a mental framework for understanding what they are doing and why. While being smart, they are often not deep or coherent thinkers, they often focus more on sounding right than being right. Excessive short term orientation, overconfidence, emotional investing, getting caught up in fads and/or conventional wisdom, investing according to untested or simply faulty principles. Stupid smart people and stupid stupid people create the market opportunities that I’ve been able to take advantage of for the last 20 so years.
The Gold Coast would become the platinum coast if they went with this approach.
Toxic,
Christie is a failed governor, I agree. Minimal reform or innovation or effort to turn around this failing state. And it will likely get even worse when he leaves and we get the next Democratic governor.
Lol..Exactly!! Everyone serves their part. Master both sides and you are going to make a lot of money!! Not many can do that. I learned my lesson by missing out on making a million off a 30,000 investment in Sirius when it hit .10. It was a costly lesson. It taught me to look at both sides of the ball and if the positives outweigh the negatives, do it!!
Xolepa says:
January 14, 2015 at 5:23 pm
(79) That kind of person is called a Devils Advocate. Knew one well at AT&T when I worked there in the late 70s. The guy would tell you everything that could go wrong with a design but never offered a single constructive suggestion. Mildly put, he was just a debugger.
I’d love for Pumpkin to be NJ Governor. That’s just the kind of event that could motivate my company to relocate out of NJ entirely.
Hey, for once I totally agree!!! Dead on, imo. Great writeup. Does this make you wrong now that I agree…lol
Ragnar says:
January 14, 2015 at 5:26 pm
Libturd,
If your guy fell in love with technical analysis, he didn’t get it from the CFA program. I wonder if he ever passed all 3 levels. Technical analysis is pretty much like running horoscopes. I wouldn’t hire anyone who takes it seriously. Works great for televised BS artists who need to make up something that they don’t know anything about.
There are a lot of people on Wall St. and investment management that are smart on tests, but really don’t have a mental framework for understanding what they are doing and why. While being smart, they are often not deep or coherent thinkers, they often focus more on sounding right than being right. Excessive short term orientation, overconfidence, emotional investing, getting caught up in fads and/or conventional wisdom, investing according to untested or simply faulty principles. Stupid smart people and stupid stupid people create the market opportunities that I’ve been able to take advantage of for the last 20 so years.
1.68 a gallon at Costco. My friend just told me. Wow. Bet your ass inflation is coming. This is going to put a lot of money in people’s hands to spend.
Your company would regret the move.
Ragnar says:
January 14, 2015 at 5:36 pm
I’d love for Pumpkin to be NJ Governor. That’s just the kind of event that could motivate my company to relocate out of NJ entirely.
I can’t believe that I successfully avoid so much waste weeks at a time, and foolishly made the bad assumption that a short post would have minimal impact, if any.
Yet, this thing is such a concentrated level of stupid that it is almost a black hole…ripping part of the Internet and at least a portion of my frontal lobe above my sinuses into the computer screen. I am sitting here flummoxed ….almost catatonic…..
The Great Pumpkin says:
January 14, 2015 at 5:41 pm
1.68 a gallon at Costco. My friend just told me. Wow. Bet your ass inflation is coming. This is going to put a lot of money in people’s hands to spend.
http://www.weichert.com/55322861/
What’s up with this picture? Is it a joke or are they going for the haunted house look?
My house and lot purchase is now under contract subject to subdivision and variance to build a 2 family house. Lot is 100 x 125 and house is all the way over to one side. If I get my approval I will renovate the existing house and sell it. My 2 family lot in northwest Bergen will cost me about $125,000 including approvals. I expect the end cost of my 3600 sq ft, 7 bedroom, 5 bath, 2 family to be around $530,000 all in. Sweet deal! Anticipated property taxes under $17,000.00.
Rent for the 3 bedroom/2 bath unit with central air, laundry in unit, garage and 2 driveway parking spaces, one block to NJT train to be close to $3000.00 per month. Looking forward to low monthly housing cost.
This is pretty good news. Though I wonder about the tax contributions of a college Vs. a pharma firm. Probably not even in the same stratosphere. Still you cannot beat the turn-a-round: http://www.northjersey.com/news/private-medical-school-planned-for-former-hoffmann-laroche-site-in-nutley-clifton-1.1192572
Sx (94)-
Watch it be a skool of mortuary science.
#76
“Last I heard, she was in some dive bar on Tonnelle Avenue s ucking beer f.arts off of bar stools for a living..”.
Her name was Lewicki. Tried to give me Hickie. Gave her a swift kickie.
After that I met a girl named Lola and took her back to my place… LOL!
clot: back in your sommelier days at the Ryland Inn, I always imagined you in this way…..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cZ2BUyLgUk
Draft Day Investments Toronto Raptors Should Consider | Bleacher SurveyEven with the No. 10 pick in a rather deep 2014 NBA draft class, general manager Masai Ujiri from the Toronto Raptors won’t sit down idly by and allow festivities on August 26 roll through without making a few calls in an attempt to boost his roster and/or purchase a higher pick.There isn’t any complacency within this organization. Your 48-34 regular season is fine and dandy, but they want additional. The first Atlantic Offic