Shocking Housing Data (Who is the new guy?)

From HousingWire:

Realtor.com: Tightening inventories likely to push home prices up

Housing inventory continues to tighten in markets across the country – a 2015 trend identified by realtor.com Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke in its housing inventory data report for January.

Nationwide total listings declined by 6.7% month over month and about 8.7% year over year.

“January’s inventory data suggest a continuation of the tightening trend we identified last month in the December data, and with a shortage of inventory typically comes increased home prices,” Smoke said. “Half of the 200 markets realtor.com tracks experienced year-over-year price increases of at least 6% in January.”

Despite a shortage of inventory nationally, data on the 200 largest markets found a handful of housing markets categorized as healthy and growing.

These markets include: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA,;Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Florida; Jacksonville, Florida, and Pittsburg, Pennsylvania.

“These four markets are bucking the trend, showing notable increases year over year in total listing counts and median list prices as well as clear declines in median inventory age,” Smoke said. “We will likely see the most sales growth in these markets in the coming months.”

This entry was posted in Employment, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

90 Responses to Shocking Housing Data (Who is the new guy?)

  1. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Office, industrial leasing up in North Jersey

    Office leasing rose last quarter in northern and central New Jersey, although vacancy rates remain above 20 percent, the commercial real estate firm Colliers International said Thursday.

    The overall office vacancy rate was still at 21.9 percent for northern and central New Jersey. Vacancy rates have been in the 20-percent range for years, especially since the 2007-2009 recession led to many job cuts, lessening the need for office space.

    Bob Martie, executive vice president for the New Jersey region for Colliers, said that most of the leasing velocity has been in well maintained and located buildings. He said several high-profile properties, including the Glenpointe in Teaneck and the Overlook in Little Falls, have recently invested heavily in renovations, and increased their occupancy rates as a result.

    “Landlords that have invested in their buildings and positioned them to be the best in class in their markets, we see those buildings getting the bulk of the activity,” Martie said.

    About 3.7 million square feet of office space was leased in the quarter, the most robust rate of activity since the 2009. Renewals accounted for about half the activity, and included Prudential’s renewals of almost 300,000 square feet in Newark; Insurance Service Office’s renewal of about 390,000 square feet in Jersey City, and Novartis’s renewal of 150,000 square feet in Parsippany.

  2. Fast Eddie says:

    Despite a shortage of inventory nationally, data on the 200 largest markets found a handful of housing markets categorized as healthy and growing.

    These markets include: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA…

    $649,000 for a sh1t box is not a symbol of a healthy market. And fyi, 4 of the last 5 houses I visited were in some state of bank-owned or near bank-owned status. Try to understand this again: people are financially f.ucked in epic proportions. I’m talking about our area. I have numerous anecdotal stories to support the claim. The Eddie Ray Valentine economic theory is all that’s needed to figure out what’s really going on.

  3. Juice Box says:

    Brrrrrrrr

  4. ExPat in NJ says:

    The middle class is dying and you need to get out of it
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shake-your-middle-class-status-stat-211915756.html

    “76% of middle class workers are living paycheck to paycheck, and with wage growth stagnant saving for retirement and planning for your future is likely not happening. In order to rise above the fray you need to simply earn more, says Cardone. “$109,000 a year is where you need to get, so if you are making $60,000 or $58,000, the average person makes $58,000 in this country, figure out how do I add $42,000 into that?””

    “Sobering Stats on the Middle Class

    Wages are flat or declining for 20 years
    Middle 60% of households earn less than 50% of all income
    50% of college graduates don’t get a job in the field they studied
    28% of Americans have no savings, 43% have enough for 3 months of expenses”

    ^^^^ Except for the first one, the next 3 are meh.

  5. Comrade Nom Deplume, not as pretty as Grim says:

    [2] Gary,

    Don’t you mean Billy Ray Valentine?

    Rory Martin calls me Eddie Ray. Not sure he’d like me to channel that though as I’d channel it in his direction for being such a twisted c*nt.

  6. Comrade Nom Deplume, not as pretty as Grim says:

    It’s so fcuking cold, I’m letting my dogs do their business on the snow covered deck.

  7. 1987 Condo says:

    #2..I don’t know, I see the same crap shacks on HGTV, I assume in Canada, going for $900,000-$1.2 million while the ones in the Waco show go for $75,000

  8. so when his predictions go south can we say they got smoked?

  9. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    Today’s Privileged News: It’s always good to have some friends who have been sitting on the sidelines with millions at their disposal looking for an investment. Guess the economy isn’t bad for everyone.
    —————

    Fortress Investment Group is getting ready to wrap up fundraising on its latest credit opportunities fund with an overall haul of about $5 billion, according to people with knowledge of the process.

    https://www.pehub.com/2015/02/fortress-nears-5-bln-final-close-on-flagship-credit-fund/?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

  10. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    I bet a good portion of the reporters out there have embellished a story here and there. The hard part is with today’s research tools, fact checking will happen when you make a claim.

    Used to love Walter Cronkite…”and that’s the way it is”.
    ———————-

    Bill O’Reilly Has His Own Brian Williams Problem

    The Fox News host has said he was in a “war zone” that apparently no American correspondent reached.

    http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/02/bill-oreilly-brian-williams-falklands-war?dg

  11. Comrade Nom Deplume, who needs to stop screwing around and get back to work says:

    [10] FKA,

    I agree that journalists of all stripes embellish and lie. How many have been outed over the years? And those are just the ones we know of.

    My problems with this are the source, timing and age. A liberal propaganist publication (let’s call it what it is) decides to investigate a 33 year old report right after one of their darlings gets nailed. All the hallmarks of classic gotcha “journalism” designed to appeal to the predisposed (e.g., anon, footrest, Rory Martin)

    To my thinking, it is suspect until it turns out to be correct in an undisputable, fact-based way, e.g., BOR said he was in X when evidence shows he was actually elsewhere.

  12. JJ says:

    Hey I got a real estate question for you “real” pros.

    So I am at my condo board meeting the other night and a “garden” level unit sold last month for cash. Garden level is a ranch style condo all on one level. In this case it is like four steps down from sidewalk level. So entire condo on all four sides is 3-4 feet below sidewalk level.Of course these units flooded in Sandy.

    So building is now fully recovered sandy and should be “mortgage-able” This unit although full renovated and beautiful inside the Condo President said banks no longer give mortgages on basements. I went over to the Fannie/Freddie web site for underwriting and it says square footage below ground level should not be counted in square footage. Wait 100% of this unit is below ground level.

    Now several basement/garden owners have mortgages. However, the last unit sold back in 2004. And most sold recent sales are between 1999 and 2004. This is first unit that sold since 2004 at basement level.

    So do banks no longer give basement condo mortgages? Or is she making this up? Or is this just cause building is in flood zone and you really cant insure contents in unit or kitchen cabinets. It is just bare bones coverage for flood since FEMA calls it a basement.

  13. Comrade Nom Deplume, who needs to stop screwing around and get back to work says:

    [4] expat,

    Notwithstanding the best efforts of this president and his minions, I am managing to stay ahead of the sinking middle class. One benefit would be that as demand lessens, costs are contained so my dollars go further. Of course, the opposing side of that view is that as demand lessens, so does supply, giving the survivors pricing power. I see this in skiing–demand is down but costs aren’t because there are enough willing to pay and as areas close, the remainder have less competition. Thus, skiing is becoming a sport for the wealthy, much like golf used to be.

    There is one notable area of commerce where supply cannot easily be restricted. Its growth may slow or stop but the supply is reasonably static. So if demand lessens because no one has money, the cost of this commodity comes down. Sorry Punkin, but supply isn’t going away so unless you create demand, you won’t see the recovery you feel is coming.

  14. Juice Box says:

    re # 12 – JJ – Banks cannot sell those mortgages to Fannie/Freddie/FHA/VA etc anymore and unload the risk to the government, you think they want to keep those loans on their books, the next Sandy is just around the corner.

  15. leftwing says:

    1.
    20% vacancy rate is stunning. Some people out there must be getting killed.

    2.
    Eddie, agree totally. At the end of the day it all comes down to quality of life. Eventually there will be a breaking point where the average family won’t want to have its entire savings locked up in a house that costs in the 1% range of most areas of the country but is in the lower quartile of quality. Most likely will occur when people realize the intangible reasons they put up with this area – “we’re so close to the city”, “the schools are so great” – are either not utilized or incorrect.

    We are in the process of the Queens-ification of NJ. Illiquid theoretical savings in a subpar primary structure with two earners living paycheck to paycheck while convincing eachother we are ‘special’ because we are so close to the City we never visit (and can’t afford to) and have six figure incomes that we conveniently ignore can’t even provide us a decent passbook account as we spend our entire takehome and often more on a quality of life that would be shunned in most civilized parts of the country.

    The smart ones will get out sooner, taking the cash and arbitrage it into a real life at half the nominal salary, twice the relative earnings, and four times the quality of life. They’ll miss that annual trip to the City, but have enough left that they can fly in and Waldorf it and still be ahead of simply living here.

  16. 1987 Condo says:

    #16…hmmm..”Queens-ification”….complements my “Staten Island-ization” thoughts. Most of Queens is laid out nicer than the morass of the SI road system.

    On the plus side, my brother is finally getting sewers this year..thats right…NYC residents paying full NYC property and Income tax still do not have sewer connections…

  17. Libturd in Union says:

    Nom,

    The VPOTUS claimed to have had his helicopter shot down in the Middle East when it simply had engine trouble. Why does he get a pass?

  18. Libturd in Union says:

    leftwing – I am so glad to have accelerated my mortgage payoff to 15 years. I only hope the Queensification does not happen before 2028. Cause in 2028, I am going to have so much cash flow that I will have no clue what to do with it all.

  19. anon (the good one) says:

    ““76% of middle class workers are living paycheck to paycheck”

    how the fukc can you be middle class and at the same time live paycheck to paycheck?

    a doctor is middle class, a SVP is middle class. a hedge fund manager is rich.

    calling yourself middle class doesn’t make you one. you can vote Republican all you want, but that doesn’t make you a hedge fund manager. most people are solidly working poor

  20. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    [11] Comrade

    You are probably correct but if Bill wasn’t on his high horse about the Williams story, there probably wouldn’t have been any investigation. They just had to go back 30+ years to find something.

    Society doesn’t care about facts…buy the rumor, sell the fact.

  21. Toxic Crayons says:

    So tell the Feds and the state to stop taxing me. I’m poor yo.

    anon (the good one) says:
    February 20, 2015 at 11:32 am
    ““76% of middle class workers are living paycheck to paycheck”

    how the fukc can you be middle class and at the same time live paycheck to paycheck?

    a doctor is middle class, a SVP is middle class. a hedge fund manager is rich.

    calling yourself middle class doesn’t make you one. you can vote Republican all you want, but that doesn’t make you a hedge fund manager. most people are solidly working poor

  22. ccb223 says:

    Read Ron Chernow’s “Titan” recently, it’s a John D. Rockefeller biography. Claims that at one point in time Rockefeller was the richest man to ever live (taking into account any era). Reason being that he had an oil monopoly in the U.S. with Standard Oil at a time that predated federal income taxes. Would love to do some fact checking on that…but regardless, the point is, imagine having an oil monopoly during the country’s boom and not having to pay taxes on anything. Pretty f*cking sweet deal.

  23. Libturd in Union says:

    Anon,

    Are hedge fund managers who vote Democrat OK? Like Corzine for example?

    Putz.

  24. jj says:

    We sold one for 209k cash fully renovated and same buyer bought one for 160 cash unrenovated. Renovated is turn key new everything. Unrenovated is building new HVAC, Windows, Front Door, Water Heater, New Sheetrock, etc. But a shell, you need to put kitchen and bathroom in and floors, even interior doors and outlets. Basically from paint back.

    Unit has 500 a month maint, 400 a month tax. He had a tenant for the renovated one before closing. He closed and pretty much that weekend a tenant moved in at $2,050 a month. Guy was bragging the cash flow is amazing and he is willing to take flood risk. He paid cash and is a contractor. I guess with $1,100 a month positive cash flow and 3% rent increases he gets back 100% of purchase price in 14 years with almost no maint as it was brand new when he bought it. Even with zero appreciation he can sell it in 14 years and do well. I did not buy it as the flood risk the prior owner lost everything as unit had five to six feet of water in it. You would never know it today. I could eat the 30K out of pocket to fix after condo did the big repairs. But imagine, a newlwed couple with a baby in that unit and they lost everything . Even better they cant buy flood contents insurance as it is a basement.

    We got ten of the basement units. 7 are now rentals. 3 are primary homes with a mortgage where owners came back after sandy as cant sell.

    I wanted to turn some into common area like a party room or storage and buy out owner. But it turns out then we lose the maint on unit, and then we have to change our whole offering plan which requires 100% vote.

    Why did Fannie and Freddie give mortgages to these things anyhow and why did the building dept give COs to basement units in a flood zone in first place. They have a lot in Boston too,.
    Juice Box says:

    February 20, 2015 at 10:52 am

    re # 12 – JJ – Banks cannot sell those mortgages to Fannie/Freddie/FHA/VA etc anymore and unload the risk to the government, you think they want to keep those loans on their books, the next Sandy is just around the corner.

  25. anon (the good one) says:

    these days the only student activism is by the extreme right wingers who attend the most liberal colleagues just to proudly announce that they are the most reactionary in campus

    Ottoman says:
    February 19, 2015 at 8:14 am

    Congratulate the powers that be for crushing one of the most powerful forces for social, economic, and political change: student activism.

  26. Bystander says:

    Keep trying Eddie. Today is closing day for me. Just completed my walkthrough and paperwork. I have no idea what future holds but it will be in nicely updated house with plenty of space. The previous bagholders had to bring cash to table to close this morning. That sucks after 4 years of ownership. I can only hope I escape with something after my ownership ends. Of course, they played some financial shenanigans when buying. Their mortgage was $520k on $555k purchase in 2011. No second lien. How did they get there? No idea.

  27. POS cape says:

    [7]

    Seen that also, what is it about Waco that it’s so cheap? Houses that would go for $700,000 and up in NNJ, with big plots, being sold for peanuts. Does not look like a dumpy town, at least what’s shown on TV.

    Plus the wife on that show is hot.

  28. Libturd in Union says:

    Student activism was crushed when mommy and daddy gave their precious offspring a credit card to go to college with.

    When I was in school, tuition went from $40 to $80 per credit in 4 1/2 years. I was out there protesting as I was paying my own way. Unfortunately, of the 12,000 or so students paying tuition, probably less than 200 joined the protest. I recall calling out the president publicly on his faulty math. He had claimed that the current years tuition increase was the lowest in his tenure, but that was only when measured by percentages. In dollar amounts the 1993 tuition increase was actually larger than that of 1990s and 1991s. I suggested he take a few remedial math classes, if he could afford them. After the rally, we went on to take over the hall that contained the administrative offices for a couple of hours until we were threatened with arrest. I knew we were wasting our time anyway.

  29. Libturd in Union says:

    I had a friend from Waco. You couldn’t pay me enough to live there. Staying in Lubbock for a few days was bad enough.

  30. Juice Box says:

    Bystander congrats on becoming a bagholder.

  31. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Basically, there are no good jobs out there. Without good jobs, why would you want to start a business there? How much can you make off of people with no money? Also, what kind of education will your child receive there? So it comes down to opportunity. Might be a nice house on a nice plot of land, but if there are no opportunities to make money, the land becomes worthless due to lack of competition from buyers in that real estate market. Nobody wants it, well then it’s worthless. The minute people want it, the land now has a value. As long as NYC maintains it’s position as one of the highest concentrations of millionaires in the world, the land in the surrounding area will command value due to the opportunities these millionaires and billionaires provide with their money. Right now, nyc is a world class destination. These millionaires and billionaires aren’t going anywhere. Fast eddie will continue to wait for cheap homes in this area that will never come. Those sh!t boxes he talks about will only go up in price in this area. He needs to go to locations where there is not a major city or a ton of millionaires in order to see the prices he wants.

    POS cape says:
    February 20, 2015 at 1:16 pm
    [7]

    Seen that also, what is it about Waco that it’s so cheap? Houses that would go for $700,000 and up in NNJ, with big plots, being sold for peanuts. Does not look like a dumpy town, at least what’s shown on TV.

    Plus the wife on that show is hot.

  32. Juice Box says:

    Nary a peep from the students or the left on the latest war authorization. When Bush did it they were marching in the streets. I gather if you tweet a protest that is good enough these days?

  33. Libturd in Union says:

    Maybe Gary should move to Gary, Indiana. You could get lakefront property 2,000 sq ft for 400K. Move inland and get the same thing for 100K.

  34. Libturd in Union says:

    I gather if you tweet a protest that is good enough these days?

    Hash has a whole new meaning from when I was in school.

  35. Juice Box says:

    Never and I mean never stop in Gary. Keep driving to the next city.

  36. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You might be right. Good point. I’m still holding out HOPE, but it’s looking more and more like the economic manipulation will continue, hence no wage inflation. Meaning more bubbles will drive growth, rather than wages. If the market is not based on fundamentals and rather manipulation, my logic will continue to be flawed. This isn’t the economy our grandparents partook in. It’s becoming almost impossible to apply logic to the current economic systems.

    Now can fast eddie apply this logic to why houses in the locations he is looking will not go down. There are enough people with money to maintain those prices. Doesn’t matter if a majority of the population can not afford those areas, those are for the rich.

    Comrade Nom Deplume, who needs to stop screwing around and get back to work says:
    February 20, 2015 at 10:19 am
    [4] expat,

    Notwithstanding the best efforts of this president and his minions, I am managing to stay ahead of the sinking middle class. One benefit would be that as demand lessens, costs are contained so my dollars go further. Of course, the opposing side of that view is that as demand lessens, so does supply, giving the survivors pricing power. I see this in skiing–demand is down but costs aren’t because there are enough willing to pay and as areas close, the remainder have less competition. Thus, skiing is becoming a sport for the wealthy, much like golf used to be.

    There is one notable area of commerce where supply cannot easily be restricted. Its growth may slow or stop but the supply is reasonably static. So if demand lessens because no one has money, the cost of this commodity comes down. Sorry Punkin, but supply isn’t going away so unless you create demand, you won’t see the recovery you feel is coming.

  37. chicagofinance says:

    Shiller’s absent minded professor shtick is a little grating, but if you wait until the end, you get the money quote…. “maybe we have been TOO invested in homes….”

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/we-re-in-the-most-dramatic-housing-slump–ever–robert-shiller-174038372.html

  38. JJ says:

    Juice box, just found reason why basement apts in flood zones cant get mortgages anymore, nothing to do with Sandy or even housing collaspe.

    Starting 2010 homeowner has to buy H0-6 Insurnance to cover betterments and improvements in condo. Most condo flood policies for instances only cover up to bare walls.

    Since a basement per FEMA in a flood no betterments and improvements can be covered the condo cant buy this type of insurance if in a basement. Basically this 2010 law instantly made these units unmortgageable.

    HO-6 Now Required By Lenders

    Under the new Fannie Mae (FNMA) and FHA overhaul of condominium lending guidelines, lenders are now requiring HO-6 policies for new condo unit purchases. Sounds like common sense, but HO-6 policies weren’t always required by lenders, and many condominium unit owners were under the mistaken impression that the master condominium insurance policy covered all damage to the interior of their unit as well as damage to furniture, appliances, etc. That isn’t so. In most cases, that master insurance policy covers common areas such as the hallways, roof, basement, elevator, boiler, and common walkways, for both liability and physical damage–but not the inside of units.

    Coverages

    HO-6 policy benefits include:

    Coverage for damage to personal property such as furniture, computer equipment and clothing
    Fill in the gaps of the master insurance policy and cover losses under master policy deductibles
    Personal liability coverage
    Interior walls and floor coverings coverage
    Coverage for improvements or upgrades (most master insurance policies only cover the original condition and value of the unit).
    Usually has small deductible and fairly inexpensive

  39. Comrade Nom Deplume, who needs to stop screwing around and get back to work says:

    [21] FKA,

    Not that it matters to MJ readers, but one thing that stuck out to me was that BOR didn’t make these representations in his reporting. Rather, he made them in his commentary where he seemed to conflate being in one of the combatant countries was = to being in a war zone. At least that is how it seemed in the story. Williams, OTOH, reported these things.

    BOR probably shouldn’t be making such representations, and it would be within the rights of his employer at that time (or his present employer) to do something. But I do see a pretty big difference between someone lying about his own past in conversation, and someone passing off fabrications as facts as part of his job to report the news. Also, the Falklands was over 30 years ago. Should misrembering (the standard applied to Williams by his peers so I apply it here) something from over three decades ago, and for which there is less of a record to refer back to, be held to the same standard as misremembering much more recent events with better documented records? I guess your answer depends heavily on whether you like the person or not.

  40. Comrade Nom Deplume, who needs to stop screwing around and get back to work says:

    [38] punkin,

    That sort of stratification has always occurred and will continue to occur. Now, NJ has things like Mt. Laurel to “equalize” things but it means little if the housing is unaffordable, period. Then you get your most desirable “poor” living in your tony town, while the true dregs stay where they belong.

  41. Juice Box says:

    re: # 41- JJ – HO-6? More to the story, those requirements are from Fannie, Freddie etc. Flood certification required in 2009, and then Flood insurance HO-6 in 2010 or Fannie won’t take delivery on the loan. Banks can still issue all the loans they want but they cannot get them off books hense no loans.

    “repair the condominium unit to at least its condition prior to the loss”

    Here is another more recent change in Jan 2012, that made it even tougher to insure.

    “repair the condominium unit to at least its condition prior to the loss”

    The second important change involves requirements for HO-6 insurance policies. Fannie Mae previously required that an HO-6 insurance policy must provide coverage in an amount that is no less than 20% of the condominium unit´s appraised value. Fannie Mae now provides that when the HO-6 policy is required by Fannie Mae, the HO-6 policy must provide coverage, as determined by the insurer, which is sufficient to repair the condominium unit to at least its condition prior to the loss.

    Fannie Mae also eliminated the use of the term “walls-in” and now addresses when it will require an HO-6 policy with respect to three types of master or blanket condominium insurance policies: “single entity”, “all-in” and “bare walls”.

  42. chicagofinance says:

    Noonan……good quote…. “It isn’t about getting a job. They have a job: waging jihad.”

    Great essays tell big truths. A deeply reported piece in next month’s Atlantic magazine does precisely that, and in a way devastating to the Obama administration’s thinking on ISIS.

    “What ISIS Really Wants,” by contributing editor Graeme Wood, is going to change the debate. (It ought to become a book.)

    Mr. Wood describes a dynamic, savage and so far successful organization whose members mean business. Their mettle should not be doubted. ISIS controls an area larger than the United Kingdom and intends to restore, and expand, the caliphate. Mr. Wood interviewed Anjem Choudary of the banned London-based Islamist group Al Muhajiroun, who characterized ISIS’ laws of war as policies of mercy, not brutality. “He told me the state has an obligation to terrorize its enemies,” Mr. Wood writes, “because doing so hastens victory and avoids prolonged conflict.”

    ISIS has allure: Tens of thousands of foreign Muslims are believed to have joined. The organization is clear in its objectives: “We can gather that their state rejects peace as a matter of principle; that it hungers for genocide; that its religious views make it constitutionally incapable of certain types of change . . . that it considers itself a harbinger of—and headline player in—the imminent end of the world. . . . The Islamic State is committed to purifying the world by killing vast numbers of people.”

    The scale of the savagery is difficult to comprehend and not precisely known. Regional social media posts “suggest that individual executions happen more or less continually, and mass executions every few weeks.” Most, not all, of the victims are Muslims.

    The West, Mr. Wood argues, has been misled “by a well-intentioned but dishonest campaign to deny the Islamic State’s medieval religious nature. . . . The reality is that the Islamic State is Islamic. Very Islamic. Yes, it has attracted psychopaths and adventure seekers,” drawn largely from the disaffected. “But the religion preached by its most ardent followers derives from coherent and even learned interpretations of Islam.” Its actions reflect “a sincere, carefully considered commitment to returning civilization to a seventh-century legal environment, and ultimately to bring about the apocalypse.”

    Mr. Wood acknowledges that ISIS reflects only one, minority strain within Islam. “Muslims can reject the Islamic State; nearly all do. But pretending it isn’t actually a religious, millenarian group, with theology that must be understood to be combatted, has already led the United States to underestimate it and back foolish schemes to counter it.”

    He quotes Princeton’s Bernard Haykel, the leading expert on ISIS’ theology. The group’s fighters, Mr. Haykel says, “are smack in the middle of the medieval tradition,” and denials of its religious nature spring from embarrassment, political correctness and an “interfaith-Christian-nonsense tradition.”

    The Islamic State is different from al Qaeda and almost all other jihadist movements, according to Mr. Wood, “in believing that it is written into God’s script as a central character.” Its spokesman has vowed: “We will conquer your Rome, break your crosses, and enslave your women.” They believe we are in the End of Days. They speak of how “the armies of Rome will mass to meet the armies of Islam in northern Syria.” The battle will be Rome’s Waterloo. After that, a countdown to the apocalypse.

    Who exactly is “Rome”? That’s unclear. Maybe Turkey, maybe any infidel army. Maybe America.

    What should the West do to meet the challenge? Here Mr. Wood’s tone turns more tentative. We should help the Islamic State “self-immolate.”

    Those urging America to commit tens of thousand of troops “should not be dismissed too quickly.” ISIS is, after all, an avowedly genocidal and expansionist organization, and its mystique can be damaged if it loses its grip on the territory it holds. Al Qaeda, from which ISIS is estranged and which it has eclipsed, can operate as an underground network. ISIS cannot, “because territorial authority is a requirement.”

    But ISIS wants to draw America into the fight. A U.S. invasion and occupation, Mr. Wood argues, would be a propaganda victory for them, because they’ve long said the U.S. has always intended to embark on a modern-day crusade against Islam. And if a U.S. ground invasion launched and failed, it would be a disaster.

    The best of bad options, Mr. Wood believes, is to “slowly bleed” ISIS through air strikes and proxy warfare. The Kurds and the Shiites cannot vanquish them, but they can “keep the Islamic State from fulfilling its duty to expand.” That would make it look less like “the conquering state of the Prophet Muhammed.” As time passed ISIS could “stagnate” and begin to sink. Word of its cruelties would spread; it could become another failed state.

    But that death, as Mr. Wood notes, “is unlikely to be quick,” and any number of things could go wrong, including a dangerous rapprochement with al Qaeda.

    Mr. Wood’s piece is bracing because it is fearless—he is apparently not afraid of being called a bigot or an Islamophobe. It is important because it gives people, especially political leaders, information they need to understand a phenomenon that may urgently shape U.S. foreign policy for the next 10 years.

    In sorry contrast, of course, are the Obama administration’s willful delusions and dodges. They reached their height this week when State Department spokesman Marie Harf talked on MSNBC of the “root causes” that drive jihadists, such as “lack of opportunity for jobs.” She later went on CNN to explain: “Where there’s a lack of governance, you’ve had young men attracted to this terrorist cause where there aren’t other opportunities. . . . So how do you get at that root causes?” She admitted her view “might be too nuanced of an argument for some.”

    Yes, it might.

    It isn’t about getting a job. They have a job: waging jihad.

    The president famously cannot even name the ISIS threat forthrightly, and that is a criticism not of semantics but of his thinking. ISIS isn’t the only terrorist group, he says, Christians have committed their own sins over history, what about the Crusades, don’t get on your high horse. It’s all so evasive. Each speech comes across as an attempt to make up for the previous speech’s mistakes in tone and substance. At the “violent extremism” summit this week he emphasized Islamic “legitimate grievances” and lectured America on the need for tolerance toward American Muslims.

    Of extremists he said: “They say they are religious leaders—they are not religious leaders, they are terrorists.” But ISIS and its followers believe they are religious leaders, prophets who use terrorism to achieve aims they find in religious texts.

    On the closing day of the summit the president said, “When people are oppressed and human rights are denied . . . when dissent is silenced, it feeds violent extremism.” Yes, sure. But isn’t ISIS oppressing people, denying their human rights and silencing dissent?

    “When peaceful democratic change is impossible, it feeds into the terrorist propaganda that violence is the only available answer.” Yes, sure. But the young men and women ISIS recruits from Western nations already live in peaceful democracies.

    It’s not enough. They want something else. It is, ironically, disrespectful not to name what they are, and what they are about.

  43. JJ says:

    Juice box – One guy in the building who bought 2003 in a basement unit who has a mortgage did buy a flood H0-6 Policy in 2010 when they passed that rule. In Sandy in 2012 he could not collect a penny as they called it a basement and bank insisted he keep the policy as it was terms of his mortgage even though he could never collect.

    As condo treasure I do a bare walls master policy for building as first it is cheaper. Second an “all in policy” would only cover the upper floors which never get water and finally my by-laws only require a bare walls policy.

    Now some banks are requiring flood insurance in flood zones for second floor condo units. But that is a bank by bank thing. I certainly am not buying an expensive “all in” policy as it does not effect a single current owners and new buyers well they can buy it themselves or pay cash or use a bank that does not require it.

    I dont think I would buy another condo or coop unless in Manhattan. But it is quite interesting.

  44. AG says:

    38,

    Fast Eddie is right. 700,000 for a sh_tbox and 20k+ taxes is ridiculous. Where Fast Eddie is wrong is that he refuses to commute or find work in a place other than Manhatten.

    I prefer to hang out with the red necks. Limo libtards really twist my nuts.

  45. AG says:

    Cant fight the system Eddie. Identify the trend and ride it.

  46. AG says:

    Red necks own guns too. Scary black ones. Muhahahaha!

  47. AG says:

    Would anyone be interested in a cage match between myself and anon? Pay per view event? No crying aloud.

  48. Juice Box says:

    re: # 46 – The only people who should be living in basements are Supers in the Bronx and 24 year olds with no jobs. Our Super’s place was right next to the garbage room, as a kid I remember going down there to play with his kids, that stink that garbage room made was horrible.

  49. Juice Box says:

    re: # 50 – Are you both going to take your teeth out?

  50. JJ says:

    Guy rented it out I heard week before closing.

    I don’t like when there is a leak, either in your unit, the basement unit next to you or a unit above you get a few feet of water. Upstairs units it just flows out.

    The old lady who lives in one swears by it. She has electric heat. She says she hardly needs ac in the summer and it is very well insulated by beach as the bottom half is underground. I dont get it. Young guy renting cheap sure, couple non-hurricane season looking for a cheap AIR BNB place just to sleep in during summer fine. Old lady primary residence below ground in a flood zone is nuts.

    Juice Box says:
    February 20, 2015 at 5:01 pm
    re: # 46 – The only people who should be living in basements are Supers in the Bronx and 24 year olds with no jobs. Our Super’s place was right next to the garbage room, as a kid I remember going down there to play with his kids, that stink that garbage room made was horrible.

  51. leftwing says:

    “Nary a peep from the students or the left on the latest war authorization. When Bush did it they were marching in the streets. I gather if you tweet a protest that is good enough these days?”

    Don’t get me going. Look at all the Biden clips. Not just the recent ones but all the oaths of office. Guy is like a magnet to every congressman’s wife or young daughter. #creepyveepy doesn’t begin to capture it.

    Pick any Republican VP, have him do half of what Biden does, and tell me he wouldn’t be run out of town for sexism/sexual harassment.

    FBI ought to check Biden’s IP addresses…..probably nab him as a level 3 or 4 sexual offender

  52. Anon E. Moose says:

    Hey JJ,

    You wearing your “Dow 18k” hat today?

  53. leftwing says:

    Anyone have a working knowledge of Ocean City MD?

    Never been there. Sounds honky tonk. From the web looks like Pt Pleasant, a lot of boardwalk and amusements. Or is it more Seaside Heights?

    Is Pt Pleasant a good comparison? If so, is there a Bay Head/Mantoloking area north or south of the boardwalk?

  54. Hughesrep says:

    30

    I’ve lived all over the country, mostly east of the Mississippi. My rule is never, ever, live south of RT 70. It goes right through Philly, Columbus, Indy, and Denver. If you’ve ever lived in any of those cities you know it is the true Mason Dixon line.

    34 Gary, Indiana in Patterson on the lake. On a good day it is Chicago’s Camden.

    45 Noonan, Noonan. Miss it Noonan, miss it. Every OP? Client?

    56. OC Md is part of my sales territory. Been through it a bit, never for more than a day. Definitely more Seaside than Pt Pleasant from what I’ve seen. I’m partial to Point Pleasant though, it’s where we hang out in the summer. A few miles from home. Seaside $ucks except for St Pattys day.

  55. chicagofinance says:

    Gary Indiana is the same as going past the electric co-generation plant on the NJTP at Exit 13, except instead of 2 minutes and one or two industrial sites, it goes on for 25-35 minutes in an endless cesspool of dreck……….it is the industrial equivalent of clot’s liver……

  56. leftwing says:

    Thanks on OC. Someone is trying to interest me in a potential business investment (seasonal) there.

    I have a certain affection for PP. It’s boardwalk, but classic and generally safe. I don’t mind telling the 13 yo he can ride his bike there as long as he locks it and behaves, and expect that he will. The badasses there are mostly actors from average or better suburbs and the biggest risk is some drunken “housewives of nj” character falls on him stumbling out of the tiki bar during happy hour.

    SH, with stabbings on the boardwalk, whole different story.

  57. Hughesrep says:

    59

    My wife, kids and I are are PP year round locals.

    IMHO you can’t beat PP especially for younger kids.

    I’ve noticed Point has gotten a little more Seasideish in terms of clientele in the summer post Sandy.

  58. Hughesrep says:

    61

    He should just shoot a guy. Baa.

  59. Liquor Luge says:

    I’d rather live in Gaza than at the Shore.

  60. Liquor Luge says:

    Anon’s water on the brain is acting up again, I see.

  61. Hughesrep says:

    63

    Can’t beat it in May, June, and Sept. We deal with the hassle in July and August, and avoid the North Jersey a$$holes. We do like your money though, supports our local restaurants and bars for the other ten months. Thanks.

  62. Liquor Luge says:

    Yeah, thanks a buttload for Belmar.

  63. Libturd at home says:

    Our family digs Jenks. Always hated Seaside.

  64. Hughesrep says:

    66

    Lived there for four years when I first moved to NJ. Pulled more tail than a retard at a petting zoo.

    If you’re down this way bring the wine. I’ll buy dinner at Daniels.

  65. Comrade Nom Deplume, who needs to stop screwing around and get back to work says:

    [56] leftwing

    I have been going to OCMD for the past few years now. Comparing it to just one place on the shore is pointless. It is much larger than any one town on the Jersey shore.

    First, while there are clubs and bars, it isn’t like Sleazeside.
    Second, it isn’t like OC-NJ in that it isn’t dry. Point Pleasant is a good comparison.
    I don’t know Avalon, LBI or Stone Harbor but from what I do know, it isn’t that high end. Go to Fenwick Island or Bethany/Rehobeth for that.

    The southern end is the most concentrated with restaurants, clubs, bars, and the amusements, which are at the very end. As you go up the boardwalk, it gets quieter. About 1/3 of the way up, the boardwalk ends. From that point until Fenwick Island, it is much quieter away from the main drag, which itself is shopping and restaurants.

    Bayside is much quieter, and the northern end where there is more land between the beach and Assawoman Bay is much more residential. Lots of modest houses of various stripes but some larger ones built onto small lots. Very quiet in the northeast end.

    OC is also on the western side of the bay and that is pretty much straight residential and year round business.

  66. Comrade Nom Deplume, who needs to stop screwing around and get back to work says:

    [50] AG,

    Can we make it a triple bill? I can do two matches. I’ll start with Footrest, and I should have enough in the tank to pound Rory Martin into hamburger.

  67. Libturd at home says:

    Can Passion Fruit’s grandmother be the round girl?

  68. Hughesrep says:

    Do the round girls give discounts?

  69. leftwing says:

    Nom TY much.

    Rep, became friendly with PP as BIL has had a place on south edge for at least 20 years. Carter-Elizabeth streets by a pond. Most of PP from what I’ve seen is a nice family oriented area, with the occasional incident around the main drag/boardwalk.

  70. leftwing says:

    Also on PP forgot to mention Joe Leones and the fish shops by the marina.

    Drive my kids nuts. If we are ever south on the parkway coming home I always get off at 88 regardless of season and work my way over to PP to get the grilled/dried tomato petals in olive oil at Joes and raw tuna and scallops by the marinas (barely even sear each before eating). Mmmm.

    Clams in green sauce at Europa South too. Not worth a special trip but good.

    PP is pretty good.

    And September at the shore is outstanding.

  71. Fabius Maximus says:

    Grim
    “Never pegged you for a pipeline advocate.”
    I’m not, upping the pressure to pump this viscous, corrosive, crud through a pipeline is dumber than shipping it in propane heated rail cars. You want a solution to this, build a refinery in Alberta and ship the product. That wont happen, because tar sands are not economically viable in the long term.

  72. Fabius Maximus says:

    #70 Eddie Ray,

    While I’m sure you know who Eddie Ray Khan is, I have no idea who Rory Martin is. Is that Ricky’s brother?

  73. Libturd at home says:

    Burnley just tied it against Chelsea. Matic is a douche.

  74. anon (the good one) says:

    @jessmisener: “In a way, it’s impossible to win a debate with Bill O’Reilly because he is not bound by reality.”

  75. NJT says:

    If you’re from North Jersey (north of the Driscoll ridge) going ‘Down-the-shore’ varies depending upon age (at least for me and those I grew up with and still talk to):

    Teen years – Seaside/’Sleezeside’
    College – Belmar
    Married with children – Point Pleasant, Wildwood
    Day without the kids – Sandy Hook.
    Retired – ?

    *Of course there were and are other destinations by the sea but these are the ‘regular’
    format.

  76. NJT says:

    #47 [AG]

    Re: FE and his refusal to abandon the Matrix.

    Some people can and others can’t or won’t. I was a Morris County -> NYC creature for decades. Being outside the paradigm can be a shock, at first (especially if you commute the other way into PA).

    A couple years ago when we moved here (Warren County) our dryer broke down the next day (of course a Sunday night) so the wife made me take the clothes to a local Laundromat (first time since College). Sign above the machines read: “No Animal clothes!”. Said to the woman folding laundry “I am NOT an animal”. She didn’t get the joke.

  77. Libturd at home says:

    Peep.

  78. Comrade Nom Deplume, for once thankful he isn't in Boston. says:

    [76] Rory

    Check Her Majesty’s Most Wanted lists.

  79. Comrade Nom Deplume, for once thankful he isn't in Boston. says:

    And no, never heard of Eddie Ray Khan.

  80. Liquor Luge says:

    Chelsea looks like they might choke up their lead in the EPL.

    That was a nasty tackle on Matic. I’ve seen lots of players lose it over a tackle like that. I’m sure Matic would rather take the three game ban over a broken leg.

  81. Liquor Luge says:

    Best part of the whole Matic thing will be Mourinho turning up the volume on the whole EPL conspiracy against Chelsea.

  82. chicagofinance says:

    Sandy Hook?

    NJT says:
    February 21, 2015 at 1:37 pm
    If you’re from North Jersey (north of the Driscoll ridge) going ‘Down-the-shore’ varies depending upon age (at least for me and those I grew up with and still talk to):

    Teen years – Seaside/’Sleezeside’
    College – Belmar
    Married with children – Point Pleasant, Wildwood
    Day without the kids – Sandy Hook.
    Retired – ?

    *Of course there were and are other destinations by the sea but these are the ‘regular’
    format.

  83. NJT says:

    Heh, heh…;)

  84. grim says:

    Worst road conditions in my 20 years of driving. It’s like everyone just gave up doing anything. I’ve driven during blizzards, including one on the mass pike when it was closed, and one on the parkway when it was closed.

  85. njescapee says:

    Finally warmed up in Key West. Had dinner and drinks with friends at the Westin on Mallory Square. Sunset without cruise ships blocking the view.

Comments are closed.