Inventory on the horizon? Maybe not.

From DS News:

Economist: Declining Shadow Inventory Will Not Help Country’s Short Housing Supply

A consistent and steady decline in shadow inventory, which is the number of residential properties that are in foreclosure but not being sold because the owner is waiting for price appreciation, has been a broad trend nationwide, according to National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist and SVP Lawrence Yun.

“With new home construction still sluggish the housing inventory shortage could last longer,” Yun said. “Home price increases in many parts of the country are nearly assured as a result. The price gains in some cases will be too fast and not good for the overall health of the local real estate market.”

The percentage of all mortgages comprised of shadow inventory has fallen from 10 percent a few years ago at the height of the crisis down to 4.5 percent, which is essentially back to normal when put in terms of foreclosure starts (46 percent) according to Yun. The thin shadow inventory compared with rising home values has caused the share of distressed home sales to drop to single digits. Since there will be fewer properties sold at deep discounts, this will cause home prices to strengthen, Yun said.

“It also means that those practitioners who specialize in foreclosures or short-sales need to start thinking about a change in business models to normal home buyers and normal positive-equity home sellers,” Yun wrote on the blog.

Since real estate is local, there are outliers to the general nationwide trend of shadow inventory decline. Shadow inventory remains high in some places such as New York and New Jersey, Yun said, and home prices will rise slowly in these areas. But since shadow inventory doesn’t figure to convert into visible inventory in the foreseeable future, what needs to happen to solve the short housing supply problem?

“Investor-owned properties through a flip could show up on the market,” Yun said. “However, most institutional investors who bought a few years ago are indicating a long-term hold to get rent gains which have been nice and profitable. The only true source of more supply is from homebuilders. Unfortunately, they are still not ramping up production to meet the market needs. Consequently, home price gains this year could be too fast for the country, easily rising double or triple the rate of income growth.”

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

15 Responses to Inventory on the horizon? Maybe not.

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. Randian the Magnificent says:

    Two things:

    Has anyone seen that new Quicken Loans commercial with the theme “Buy In”, very macho, like the Cadillac commercial of about one year ago. The whole premise of the ad is one gigantic ” hey, millenials, get off your whiny little hind and buy some real estate circa 2006.

    How long before the Koch Brothers put a hit on Elon Musk and his new “Energy Company” business strategy where renewable storable power replaces the Koch’s business strategy. You got to admit that “PowerWall” design looks good and if it performs as promised you will not need to have back up generators, just a few of these and some solar panels and you are good for the next Sandy.

  3. leftwing says:


    Relaxing. Dirt $2k per acre maximum. Taxes $4800. That’s with the house. 6BR. Historic.

    No view of Manhattan if I strain my neck looking over someone else’s property I can’t afford, but no view of the inside of a neighbor’s house either. Nice when your acreage doesn’t start with a decimal point. Sitting on six right now.

    Minor league playoff game last night, on the glass for $25. Jersey boy that had a cup of coffee at MSG tied it up in the third but home team lost in OT. Electric game, full house. Final tonight.

    Not prosperous enough here to have bumper to bumper traffic, which enabled me to take the convertible 25 miles north on a lark for an hour and change. Opened it up to 145 on the way up. Have a favorite little road up there about six miles long before it turns to dirt. All ‘S’ curves with elevation except for one 1/4 mile stretch. Curves marked 15mph. Can hit and hold them without too much sliding up to 65. Little nervous since there was still sand on the road in some places, ha, still little patches of snow in the woods. First time out this year. Did two rounds, 24 miles, may need to have the clutch checked.

    Able to fill up at multiple locations with ethanol free. Everyone knows veggies in your gas is the witches’ brew.

    Planning around the Rags game to shoot some clays after. Multiple public clubs nearby. Upgraded my youngest from his 22/.410 to a proper 20ga. Took a DL, credit card, and 5 min. No one in the parking lot blinked when he walked out with it grinning ear to ear.

    Friend’s oldest son Ivy accepted for next year. Comparable GPA and extracurriculars, noticeably worse ACTs. My oldest recalled his guidance counselor telling him that even with a 4.5 and 99 percentile as an NJ white male blue ribboner he would likely be SOL on his reach schools.

    Sigh….heading back down to “paradise” tomorrow. Too bad.

  4. Juice Box says:

    Anybody renting the fight? $100 is a little steep.

  5. anon (the good one) says:

    @KenRoth: Baltimore life expectancy is worse than North Korea in 15 neighborhoods, worse than Syria in 8

  6. Grim says:

    Dude hits women, I’ll keep my money.

  7. Comrade Nom Deplume, Loan Snark says:

    [5] a none

    Post when you’re moving there. Otherwise, it’s noise.

  8. Comrade Nom Deplume, the loan snark says:

    When notoriously liberal law prof Alan Dershowitz says that the charges against the Baltimore Six are “crowd control”, that should tell you something.

    Look for a violently pitched legal battle over venue. The defense is going to fight tooth and nail to get the trial moved out of Baltimore and the State’s Attorney is going to be whipped on by an absolutely frothing constituency to keep that from happening.

  9. syncmaster says:

    Tons of rumors swirling about who the mystery buyer of the Merck HQ bldg in Whitehouse Station is. Google, Apple, Chubb, Bank of America, an unnamed Chinese financial services firm, a Hindu religious organization.

    My bet is none of the above.

  10. NJT says:

    Definitely not Chubb.

    Whoever buys it gets a gorgeous trout stream (tributary to Rockaway creek) and a heliport.

  11. syncmaster says:

    How can you be so sure it’s not Chubb?

  12. grim says:

    Anyone of you new homeowners need some in-wall/in-ceiling speakers? I’ve got 2 pair of new Polk RC80i 8″ speakers I don’t need. I don’t feel like dealing with the hassle of shipping. Good price.

  13. Liquor Luge says:

    sync (11)-

    Chubb is notoriously cheap and won’t pay that price.

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