From HousingWire:
Homeowner, appraiser home value opinion gap widens
The difference between appraiser and homeowner perceptions continued to increase for the fourth consecutive month in May, Quicken Loans reports.
Appraiser opinions of home values were 1.15% lower than homeowner estimates, according to Quicken Loans’ national Home Price Perception Index.
This is the first time in 22 months appraisal opinions were lower than homeowner estimates by at least 1%.
“The HPPI, more than anything, is a reminder that there is no such thing as a national housing market,” said Quicken Loans Chief Economist Bob Walters. “Every city, and every neighborhood, moves in different directions based on local factors. Consumers need to remember to watch their local area closely to understand the direction their market is heading.”
Home values continued to steadily climb nationally, and in many regions of the country. The national Home Value Index (HVI) increased 0.24% in May from its April level, and rose 4.64% since the previous May.
…
Quicken Loans’ exclusive look at the gap between the perceptions of appraisers and homeowners showed the difference of home value opinion continued to widen on a national level. Appraiser opinions of home values were 1.15% lower than homeowner estimates according to May’s national index.This is a larger gap than in April, when the national index showed appraiser opinions 0.69% lower than homeowner estimates. Despite the widening perception gap at the national level, appraiser opinions remain higher in the majority of the metro areas examined.
Looks like it’s going to be a great year for the shore.
From the Star Ledger:
Belmar mayor temporarily closes town to incoming traffic; says it has reached capacity
The mayor of this small beach town halted all incoming traffic from a major roadway for several hours on Sunday after it became too jammed with tourists.
Mayor Matt Doherty announced in a tweet shortly after 3 p.m. that all traffic into Belmar from Route 35 would be shut down immediately. He said in the tweet that the town had “reached its capacity.”
Doherty told NJ Advance Media that, after speaking with the police department, he decided to close down the town to visitors for public safety reasons.
The 1.6 square mile beach town has an estimated population of approximately 6,000 people, but that number swells to more than 60,000 in the summer.
He said a “perfect storm of good things” led to an influx in visitors.
“We have our 29th seafood festival along with the day being a perfect 10 weather wise,” Doherty said. “We really reached our capacity, so we started to shut down people coming into town.”
I’d like someone to ask the chief why their policies include disabling security cameras after they raid a retail store.
Not Joyce says:
June 14, 2015 at 3:53 pm
Joyce,
Just for you.
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln–police-pot-shop-raid-edibles-20150612-story.html
Once they close Belmar, they should ring it with razor wire and anti-personnel devices.
Our own little Gaza City. Except, full of Bennies.
“Just as we have a phantom work force–the 93 million not in labor force almost equals the 120 million with full-time jobs–Imperial Rome in its final days had phantom legions. There were no longer any active-duty soldiers in the legions, but the officers and paymasters filed their payroll chits and collected the legion’s pay from the out-of-touch remnants of the Imperial Core in Rome.
Just as Rome in terminal decline had its phantom legions, we have a phantom “recovery,” phantom democracy, phantom GDP and phantom unemployment rate. Those who believe that phantom recoveries and phantom metrics can be substituted for reality are in for a shock in the next downturn.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-15/our-phantom-economy
Spent the weekend in MD, just outside DC. Very obvious that the pain of 2008 largely skipped that area- lots of fat, happy gubmint drones and teat-suckers everywhere. Really surprised by the high percentage of obese bags of blood; I’ve been to MD a fair amount and never did it seem like a town such as Memphis, which is essentially a diabetics’ convention.
Everything is overbuilt and still booming: housing, commercial RE, retail, foodservice, you name it. Most of it is a case study in entropy.
When then next downdraft hits, these people are gonna take a hard hit.
“Continuing a theme he began a week earlier, Rafael Correa said bureaucractic requirements for starting a business in Ecuador are overly burdensome and that the process needs to be streamlined.
He made the comments during his weekly television broadcast on Saturday. Last week, he said that excessive requirements in all areas of government were an attack on the rights of Ecuadorians and announced plans to reduce paperwork and put more official interaction between citizens and the government online.
Correa showed a chart showing that it takes, on average, 56 days to start a business in Ecuador compared to three in Chile. Another graphic showed that starting a business in Ecuador requires 13 steps while it only takes five in Chile and seven Uruguay.
‘This is outrageous and needs to change,’ Correa said. ‘We need to get beyond the mentality of a bureaucracy that wants to control everything and that puts up unnecessary obstacles for citizens who want to invest in their country. We need to see how other countries do this and follow their good examples.’
He said that he has asked Ecuador’s minister of production Richard Espinosa to develop streamlined rules for new businesses and to work with the national assembly to develop laws to implement the changes.”
The economist who is best known for championing these ideas is Hernando de Soto of Peru. De Soto has students who study how long (and how many approvals) it takes to start a small business without bribery. The results have often been horrifying. By reducing burdens to joining the conventional economy Correa will spur growth and employment and reduce corruption if his government delivers on his promises. (I am proposing means an Ecuadorian university could champion (and measure) to deliver such improvements.) De Soto is a conservative economist best known for his book The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else. I highly recommend the book. Correa’s enthusiasm for entrepreneurs is a product of good economics and common sense, not an ideological betrayal.
Alleged Anti-Employee Control Fraud by a Chinese Firm in Ecuador
Anti-employee control frauds fail to pay employees their full compensation and/or subject them to harmful work conditions.
“A court in Manabi Province has impounded 28 dump trucks and tanker trunks belonging to a Chinese company in a labor dispute. According to the judgement, Tiesiju Corporation failed to fully compensate employees when it abandoned work on a Chone River water project last month.
Santiago Vera, union leader for Tiesiju workers, says the management refused to work with the union to find solutions to problems. ‘They are very anti-union and prefer that workers have no organized protection,'” he said. ‘Ecuador needs to be very careful about bringing Chinese companies into the country. They have a culture of not respecting the rights of workers.'”
The reason that “culture” exists is that the lack of law enforcement in China produces a “Gresham’s” dynamic in which cheaters gain a competitive advantage which makes markets perverse and drives good ethics from the marketplace. Ecuador’s crackdown on such practices, therefore, is not anti-business. Regulatory cops on the beat are essential to the success of honest businesses. De Soto has emphasized this point in a 2011 article.
“Markets were never intended to be anarchic: It has always been government’s role to police standards, weights and measures, and records, and not condone legalized sleight of hand in the shadows of the informal economy.”
Cannibal Capitalists, MERS and Foreclosure Fraud
In contrast to Correa’s embrace of sophisticated economic policies that defy typical ideological labels, which produce many cases of de Soto and Correa agreeing on policies, apex American capitalists have become so ideological and parasitical that they have put at risk one of the great triumphs that de Soto has argued explains America’s historic success. It was this primitive capitalist cannibalism that prompted de Soto’s 2011 article: “The Destruction of Economic Facts.” The unforgivable sins of this great success – our public system of record of title and property descriptions – are that the system is successful, efficient, and public. That is unforgivable because it falsifies their ideologies. You can feel de Soto’s pain as he is staggered by the stupidity of the cannibals.
“The result was the invention of the first massive ‘public memory systems’ to record and classify–in rule-bound, certified, and publicly accessible registries, titles, balance sheets, and statements of account–all the relevant knowledge available, whether intangible (stocks, commercial paper, deeds, ledgers, contracts, patents, companies, and promissory notes), or tangible (land, buildings, boats, machines, etc.). Knowing who owned and owed, and fixing that information in public records, made it possible for investors to infer value, take risks, and track results. The final product was a revolutionary form of knowledge: ‘economic facts.’
Over the past 20 years, Americans and Europeans have quietly gone about destroying these facts. The very systems that could have provided markets and governments with the means to understand the global financial crisis–and to prevent another one–are being eroded. Governments have allowed shadow markets to develop and reach a size beyond comprehension. Mortgages have been granted and recorded with such inattention that homeowners and banks often don’t know and can’t prove who owns their homes. In a few short decades the West undercut 150 years of legal reforms that made the global economy possible.”
So I ask again, why do the U.S. and U.K. media label the highly successful and pragmatic Correa a “leftist” (and assume that “leftist” views should be dismissed) while treating the vastly more ideological and self-destructive cannibals as if they were ideology-free technocrats? It’s bad journalism that reveals the media’s ideological blinders. The media are blind to their blinders. Correa continues to display his mastery of real economics while the ideologues worship dogmas that have been repeatedly falsified.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/william-k-black/the-mystery-of-cannibal-c_b_3823118.html
clot: went with wifey to Shawn Colvin-Marc Cohn at Monmouth U on Friday…..not my style but GREAT show…..Colvin is hilarious…..Cohn sang this…..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KK5YGWS5H84
Afre you aware that part of the main chorus is
“Walking In Memphis……which is essentially a diabetics’ convention…..”
I assume you were quoting…….
You stole my thunder (and my line) clot. I didn’t know what a Benny was until a college roommate from Spring Lake explained.
Except, full of Bennies.
Interesting.
“The author goes on to explain that it is not entrepreneurial drive that the people in these poor countries lack, it is capital. Furthermore he has documented that they lack capital despite owning assets.
“I will show, with the help of facts and figures that my research team and I have collected, block by block and farm by farm in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, that many of the poor already possess the assets they need to make a success of capitalism. Even in the poorest countries, the poor save. The value of savings among the poor is, in fact, immense – 40 times all the foreign aid received throughout the world since 1945. In Egypt, for instance, the wealth that the poor have accumulated is worth fifty-five times as much as the sum of all direct foreign investment ever recorded there, including the Suez Canal and the Aswan Dam. In Haiti, the poorest nation in Latin America, the total assets of the poor are more than 150 times greater than all the foreign investment received since Haiti’s independence from France in 1804. If the United States were to hike its foreign aid budget to the level recommended by the United Nations – 0.7% of national income – it would take the richest country on Earth more than 150 years to transfer to the world’s poor resources equal to those they already possess.
But they hold these resources in defective forms: houses built on land whose ownership rights are not adequately recorded, unincorporated businesses with undefined liability, industries located where financiers and investors cannot see them. Because the rights to these possessions are not adequately documented, these assets cannot readily be turned into capital, cannot be traded outside of narrow local circles where people know and trust each other, cannot be used as collateral for a loan, and cannot be used as a share against an investment.
In the West, by contrast, every parcel of land, every building, every piece of equipment, or store of inventories is represented in a property document that is a visible sign of a vast hidden process that connects all these assets to the rest of the economy. Thanks to this representational process, assets can lead an invisible, parallel life alongside their material existence. They can be used as collateral for credit. The single most important source of funds for new businesses in the United States is a mortgage on the entrepreneur’s house. These assets can also provide a link to the owner’s credit history, an accountable address for the collection of debts and taxes, the basis for the creation of reliable and universal public utilities, and a foundation for the creation of securities (like mortgage-backed bonds) that can then be rediscounted and sold in secondary markets. By this process the West injects life into assets and make them generate capital.”
In comparison, the author describes the assets of the poor as “dead capital” since they cannot be used as collateral for a loan and cannot be sold in an open market but instead can only be sold to those local people who will recognise informal ownership rights. He explains that the poor “lack the process to represent their property and create capital. They have houses but not titles; crops but not deeds; businesses but not statutes of incorporation. It is the unavailability of these essential representations that explains why people who have adapted every other Western invention, from the paperclip to the nuclear reactor, have not been able to produce sufficient capital to make their domestic capitalism work.””
http://www.mohammedamin.com/Reviews/The-mystery-of-capital.html
Buy now or forever be priced out the market.
Midyear Report: The Housing Market Is on Track for Its Best Year Since 2006 (and It Ain’t a Bubble)
As we approach the midpoint of 2015, the residential real estate market is on track for its best year since 2006, the peak of the housing bubble. (This time, though, it’s no bubble.)
Job growth is powering the surge in demand for homes. More than 3 million jobs have been created in the past 12 months. And more than 1 million jobs have been created for 25- to 34-year-olds, the age range in which most Americans buy their first home.
We’re seeing record traffic at realtor.com®. Real estate websites across the board are experiencing 15% year-over-year growth in unique users, but our site has seen more than twice that (perhaps thanks to Elizabeth Banks?). The vast majority of our visitors report that they intend to purchase a home.
With rising demand, homes are selling more quickly, too. In May the median age of inventory (homes on the market) nationwide was 66 days—that’s 8 days faster than for last year. The hottest markets are seeing inventory move 18 to 45 days faster.
A rapidly declining age of inventory signals that demand is growing more rapidly than supply. Indeed, we’ve had 32 months in a row of existing-home inventory at less than a six months’ supply. That’s why we’re also seeing above-normal price appreciation.
http://www.realtor.com/news/housing-market-on-track-for-best-year-since-2006-midyear-report/
FKA 2010 Buyer,
Confirmation bias. Believe it and use and numbers and scenario to make it fit. Why are wages flat to negative for over a decade? Why hasn’t the FED moved the needle in seven years?
7- Yup.
““A court in Manabi Province has impounded 28 dump trucks and tanker trunks belonging to a Chinese company in a labor dispute. According to the judgement, Tiesiju Corporation failed to fully compensate employees when it abandoned work on a Chone River water project last month.
Santiago Vera, union leader for Tiesiju workers, says the management refused to work with the union to find solutions to problems. ‘They are very anti-union and prefer that workers have no organized protection,’” he said. ‘Ecuador needs to be very careful about bringing Chinese companies into the country. They have a culture of not respecting the rights of workers.’”
The reason that “culture” exists is that the lack of law enforcement in China produces a “Gresham’s” dynamic in which cheaters gain a competitive advantage which makes markets perverse and drives good ethics from the marketplace. Ecuador’s crackdown on such practices, therefore, is not anti-business. Regulatory cops on the beat are essential to the success of honest businesses. De Soto has emphasized this point in a 2011 article.
“Markets were never intended to be anarchic: It has always been government’s role to police standards, weights and measures, and records, and not condone legalized sleight of hand in the shadows of the informal economy.””
There’s a reason behind the saying, it takes money to make money. It probably would have been cost overruns but they should put in financial incentives to deliver on time to mitigate some of it. I can’t think of a reason why travel up and down the NE corridor isn’t going to stop anything soon.
New Jersey, you should have built that tunnel
There are lots of reasons for bondholders to love Colorado and show no respect for New Jersey. Here’s a big one: infrastructure. Colorado made a huge investment in it and is getting rewarded by investors. New Jersey didn’t and is being punished.
More than 20 years ago, Colorado residents defied business leaders, airline executives and not a few politicians (led by consultant Roger Ailes, now president of Fox News). They voted to borrow a lot of money — a total of $4.4 billion by now — to build the Denver International Airport. At twice the size of Manhattan it’s the largest airport in the United States, and it’s been pumping up the economy ever since.
Denver International makes more money for the state than any other enterprise, pumping $26.3 billion a year into the economy while supplying 225,000 jobs. It gave Denver, the 22nd- largest U.S. city, the nation’s third-largest domestic flight network, with a record 53.4 million passengers last year and revenue of $322.8 million.
The Denver airport is superior in the $3.6 trillion market for state and local government debt. The bonds that financed its construction returned 4.04 percent, the fifth-best weighted return during the past 12 months among the 53 U.S. airports with outstanding debt. They outperformed U.S. investment-grade and high-yield bonds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It costs Denver 3.77 percent to raise long-term funds right now, less than what airports in California, Florida, Georgia, Michigan and Texas are paying on their bonds, according to Bloomberg data.
http://www.centralctcommunications.com/bristolpress/article_600735d2-12ec-11e5-8882-ef77fe9574cf.html
Fast Eddie
Wife nagging about buying a home > conventional wisdom
In all seriousness, I don’t know who has a better and more effective marketing strategy….NRA or NAR? They always seem to have a convincing argument to make.
Bull market consumer wise, bear market stock wise, bull market real estate wise and bear market bond wise.
Fragmented market today
FKA (15)-
NRA’s marketing much more effective than NAR’s.
We now have an entire generation (at least, a pretty good fraction of that generation) that understands housing can go down.
OTOH, unless you’re buying boatloads of zip guns, arming yourself isn’t an investment that threatens to plunge you into negative equity.
And, NAR will never have a line like, “…when they pry it out of my cold, dead hands”.
chi (8)-
Marc Cohn does shows? I thought that song was the only one he ever wrote. ;)
IMHO, Joni Mitchell’s “Furry Sings the Blues” is the best ever pop song about Memphis.
Colt Defense, 179-Year-Old Gunmaker, Files for Bankruptcy
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Colt Defense LLC, the 179-year-old gunmaker that supplies M4 carbines and M16 rifles for the U.S. and foreign militaries, filed for bankruptcy amid delayed government sales and declining demand.
The West Hartford, Connecticut-based firearms maker listed assets of as much as $500 million and debt of as much as $500 million in a Chapter 11 filing late Sunday in bankruptcy court in Wilmington, Delaware. Wilmington Trust Company is listed as the biggest unsecured creditor with a $261 million claim….
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-15/colt-defense-179-year-old-gunmaker-files-for-bankruptcy
re: NAR – Don’t celebrate too much. Aren’t we now in a period of rising rates?
Mortgage rates last reached 5% in 2011, some (Mortgage derivatives traders) say we are now headed back up.
“It probably would have been cost overruns but they should put in financial incentives to deliver on time to mitigate some of it.”
Isn’t pathetic that cost overruns are just accepted as a given? and not just 5-10% more, 50-100% more. Is it possible to get a fixed bid on a project that scale? I realize hiring someone to do XYZ at your house isn’t the same as building a tunnel, but we’ve built tunnels before… shouldn’t a vendor be able to reasonably foresee most of the requirements and specifications for the job (and be made to eat overruns if their bid was off)?
FKA…I’m glad Christie turned down the tunnel. Though disappointing that he used the seed money to pay for the broke transportation/highway fund. NJ is a crap hole. We simply have too much government, with too good benefits all the result of the purchase of union endorsements and favor. The state is truly on a one way path to Mumbai. There is no doubt in my mind that the cost overruns would have made Revel look like a walk in the park.
We just received our Bloomfield Parking renewal. They raised parking rates by 40%!!! It’s now up to $840 per year to park in the sh1thole known as Bloomfield so you can stand around and wait for a standing room only train in a dilapidated train station that’s so old it registers as the first poured concrete platform in the state. The parking lot is riddled with potholes too. Now that Bloomfield has built their own overly dense tinderbox of a transit village around the station, the situation at the station will be many times worse. I wonder if the fools willing to pay to live in those cramped apartments are aware of how badly the trains have truly become. And every where I look, developers are building these huge densely populated boxes around train stations. What a cluster this is going to become. I honestly think it was NJ Transits strategy to make the trains so overcrowded so they can justify the continued raising of fares since obviously, trains are not conducive to gaining economies of scale.
This state is a joke. Can’t wait to get out.
Under crony capitalism, how does an honest business man survive? You guys get mad at regulation, but honest regulation is the only thing providing a means for honest business to survive. Getting mad at regulation means you are supporting cheating in business. Plain and simple. You can not trust people to police themselves. You want to have honest competition, then you have to regulate it. Then you have to pray the regulators don’t get bought out.
“Then you have to pray the regulators don’t get bought out.”
Exactamundo!
Newark Airport. Most expensive airport in the country due to highest landing fees. Also the worst airport in the country when ranked by flight delays. Let’s hear it for the government.
Anyone want to guess how much the completely unnecessary Secaucus Tranfer cost? 450 million. That tunnel would have absolutely bankrupt NJ.
“Looks like it’s going to be a great year for the shore.”
Depends on your definition of good, lol.
Always wondered when Spring Lake would attach massive iron gates on those two tall brick arches separating the two towns….
juice (21)-
Interest rates will never rise in our lifetimes. Look what chaos ensues when one of the goobers at FedCo as much as jawbones that rates might rise.
IMO, the only exception to the above could be a rate hike that is intended by FedCo as a purposeful kill shot to certain sectors of the necronomy.
ZIRP 4EVA, bitchez!
Learn to love it.
Return of money…not return on money. This will be out lot in life.
Unless, that is, we go to NIRP. Which I think has a reasonable chance of happening.
RIP…when I did look at wrestling, Dusty was one of my favorites.
Dated June 11th.
STAMFORD, Conn. — WWE says Virgil Runnels, a former professional wrestler known by his fans as Dusty Rhodes, has died. He was 69.
The company says Runnels died Thursday, but a spokesman declined to say where or how he passed away, saying the family had not authorized the release of that information.
Runnels, who also went by the nickname “The American Dream,” was a member of the WWE Hall of Fame, and held the NWA championship three times. He became famous during the height of wrestling’s popularity in the 1970s and 1980s, appearing in signature yellow polka dot tights with his sidekick “valet” Sapphire.
He also was the father of two other famous WWE wrestlers: Dustin Runnels, better known as Goldust, and Cody Runnels who wrestles under the name Stardust.
stu (26)-
Bankruptcy is for the little people. No doubt NJ will bleed every dollar out of every schnook trapped here should it ever truly veer toward BK.
I’m into my last year in this God-forsaken collectivist nightmare of a state. Hope it doesn’t all turn to shit before I can sell my living-box.
Absence of Jebmentum
0
By PAUL KRUGMAN
JUNE 15, 2015
Nate Cohn notes Jeb Bush’s failure to nail down the GOP nomination, or even to establish himself as the candidate of the Republican “moderates” (I think we always need scare quotes in this context). Jeb is nowhere close to even having the kind of position Mitt Romney had at this stage.
Cohn thinks this is surprising. But may I suggest that we consider the candidate? Why, exactly, is Jeb Bush someone the Republican establishment should coalesce around?
True, he has name recognition — but not the kind you want. Time was that conservative writers fawned over Jeb’s supposed stellar management of the Florida economy, but we now know that it was nothing but a giant housing bubble. What he did do was bring a new intensity of crony capitalism to the state, and in general he has a lot of business career explaining to do.
Say what you like about Mitt Romney — and there isn’t much that liberals should like — he was at least a successful businessman, someone who managed the Olympics well, and for that matter a successful health care reformer even if he ran away from his own achievement. What, other than his now double-edged family connections, does Bush bring to the table?
[17] Splat
I’m sure there are plenty of nuts and preppers out there with a stockade of guns / ammo in anticipation of President Obama passing a law that will take it all away from them but good point. I would give the nod to NRA as well.
Colt Defense should have leaked that some of their weapons were on a planned (wink wink) ban list and sat back and watched sales take off.
NYC Commute Question –
Anybody have experience with a Whippany/Hanover commute to NYC? Thoughts on best option –
Park and Ride (Livinston Mall?)
NJ Transit Train
Drive to PATH (Harrison or Newark?)
Any input?
Colt, good story.
That thing has been passed around more times than a drunk at a UVA frat party.
Mid-90s, S&W and Remington are purchased in LBOs. We were backing a sponsor that lost both those deals on price. They were POed. Word came down from senior management, we are not losing the next one. Colt comes to market. Some really stupid multiple indicated. Sponsor ponies up all the equity he can. Senior bank ponies up all they can. Big hole in the middle.
Our mezz guys on the ‘not losing the next one’ mandate fill the hole.
The company misses its first interest payment 90 days out, LOL.
Any idea how bad that is in the financial world? It is almost unheard of. It is like buying a new car on the dealer’s lot with wifey and kids and when they get in to start it the car goes BOOM in an inferno in front of you. It just doesn’t happen.
Line guy walked out of the office, they packed his stuff and sent it to him. Felt badly, he was only doing what was told and not only did senior management have to sign off on the deal as well, so did G0d himself given the ridiculous price. D0uchb@gs did come close to blowing up the bonus pool for that year though.
Amazingly, Colt also BK’d in 1992.
[26] Libturd
If you could quantify the NJ (graft, corruption, incompetence, union, etc) tax on doing business, what would your best guess be?
Granted it’s a number that can never be known but I would put it around 15-30%. Which is a ridiculous number to even think about.
Party like it’s 2008:
“Earlier today, Deutsche Bank hinted at the ECB meeting as just the place where the ECB, which has until now stayed out of the ever more rancorous Greek spat, and in fact has buttressed may just invoke the nuclear option. From DB’s Jim Reid:
The ECB non-monetary policy meeting is also scheduled for Wednesday. George believes that a lack of progress on Thursday should see a more formal deadline put on Greece, beyond which capital controls will be implemented.
Which makes us wonder: with both sides digging in and unwilling to budge, will Europe revert back to its strategy from day 1, namely creating a slow initially, then fast bank run in Greece, one which leads to gradual then sudden capital controls, resulting in civil discontent and disobedience and ultimately, a violent overthrow of the Greek government.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-15/will-ecb-finally-use-greek-nuclear-option-wednesdsay
Colt offered bond holders a voluntary tender off of 30 cents on the dollar in May which like 97% rejected, they last minute upped it to 40 cents on the dollar and like 94% rejected.
It seems in game of chicken with bond holders the bondholders think in BK firm is worth more than 40 cents on a dollar recovery. Big game of chicken. Bonds were trading at 28 cents on a dollar last week.
Splat What Was He Thinking says:
June 15, 2015 at 10:38 am
Amazingly, Colt also BK’d in 1992.
FKA…really impossible to determine, but the range you gave is probably close.
FKA [14];
Top story two days ago. Apparently I’m an CC lackey because I agreed that walking away from the ARC deal that would have put NJ on the hook for all cost overruns, 50-90% of the final bill considering the “Big Dig” is the current model of blue state public works. So says the great and all-knowing gourd.
homeboken
used to live near there.
buses are tough for me. it’s a personal preference but for several reasons i just can’t take them. so no opinion on that option.
i did try the newark angle but with NJT. too complicated and always hit traffic. if secaucus could ever get real parking…..
morristown train is a bear. getting to the station and parking is tough. plus, that extra 20 minutes from summit to m’town really gets old quickly, total train time to m’town is *scheduled* at over 60 minutes, express.
i threw up my arms and started driving.
one option i did take before using the car worked reasonably. drive to summit. train ride is 40 minutes. it is actually a fairly accessible station off of 24. good parking, right next to station. it is a bit of a hub so you have tons of schedule options. depending on where in whippany/hanover you may be able to get off the train in summit and be home before that same train even arrives the morristown station. only issue would be if you are driving primetime 24 is a nightmare and would negate any advantage. i was early in/late out so it worked perfectly for me.
one disclaimer, info is dated, been a bit since i did that commute.
Summit is probably your best NJT option. If you have flexibility in driving and parking…you’d be surprised at how quick it can be. I leave my house at 6am and usually am door to door in under 40 minutes including my bagel/coffee stop. Coming home, if you depart by 3:30, it’s 50 minutes tops. Sometimes I get home in 30 minutes if someone hasn’t crashed or stalled in the tunnel prior to getting there. Early bird parking for me is $20 in before 8am.
@RecallSweeney: PROTESTS GROW AGAINST @NJSenatePres SWEENEY Refuses condolences or apology to #CarolBowne ‘s Brother & Family https://t.co/aKKJKOlwin
Driving was great, same experience here. Amazing how quick it can be slightly off-peak.
I had to pay full fare parking. Justified it and the tolls because I also spent a fair amount of time travelling. Actually not having to be in the city every day allowed me to ‘average down’ the high daily cost into an overall not unreasonable cost if viewed over a month.
Although once coming home late I did nod off for a second, drifted to the grass median, and damn near collided with the overpass for that phantom exit on 24. Scared the sh1te out of me and I was still finding branches jammed up in the undercarriage weeks later….
Left/Lib – Thanks, I am aware of the Summit station hub but was not aware that there was enough “non-res” parking available. Good to know.
Driving would be nice, I don’t mind the drive, but my commuting time-frame would cause it to likely be 2x the length you described/experienced.
A long time ago I used to take the bus and I was OK with that route (working two blocks from an A,C,E stop helps) so I was hoping that route would be an option.
My goal is to minimize the pain as I have been spoiled commute wise for the last decade from HOB. But space demands and school options have become higher priority now.
I have to give him credit……they were talking during the show about taking care of their voices…..Colvin was complaining how scratchy her’s was that evening…she was sucking on a Riccola….she asked him what he uses….his answer was Maccallan….
Splat What Was He Thinking says:
June 15, 2015 at 10:00 am
chi (8)-
Marc Cohn does shows? I thought that song was the only one he ever wrote. ;)
IMHO, Joni Mitchell’s “Furry Sings the Blues” is the best ever pop song about Memphis.
Walking away without coming up with another option is the definition of stupidity. Just pass the problem down the road to the next generation. They will have to figure out how to deal with an economy that has just lost tunnel access to nyc. Just imagine how much that is going to cost us when the construction companies know you are in a bind and it needs to get done asap. Going to get robbed silly. You will be wishing you just paid the stupid cost overruns.
Great job Christie. Thanks for saving us nothing. What is your plan now that you have cancelled it? It’s already 5 years and I have heard nothing from this man’s mouth. Great leader. Really concentrating on the issues facing this state and economy. But you got my vote, you did a great job wailing on govt employees that has resulted in nothing but credit downgrades in our ability to borrow money. Great job!! What a joke.
Anon E. Moose says:
June 15, 2015 at 10:58 am
FKA [14];
Top story two days ago. Apparently I’m an CC lackey because I agreed that walking away from the ARC deal that would have put NJ on the hook for all cost overruns, 50-90% of the final bill considering the “Big Dig” is the current model of blue state public works. So says the great and all-knowing gourd.
leftwing. In my old manual tranny Civic hatchback days, I occasionally drove her in and worked a really long day. I remember a couple of times falling asleep waiting in the Holland Tunnel queue on Varick Street. One night, I was so tired, I accidentally bumped the person in front of me twice. I was pretty embarrassed. Being exhausted and driving a stick in stand still traffic is a deadly recipe. I mange two three-shift teams in the US and have a dotted line to a third three-shift team in Chennai, so now I leave early and just finish up from home, rather than killing myself in the city.
Christie did end up sucking. But why did you think he would be different than any other politician before him? Sadly, the least of the worst of all of NJ governors was probably Florio. That should say a lot.
Lib, lol. The driving also put a damper on the “let’s grab a beer” after work thing too. Probably not a bad thing.
Home, now I’m dating myself. I used to drive to NY Waterway ferry when the Weehawken ‘terminal’ was literally a tent. Much later I actually drove to Hoboken when they started out of the terminal there. Worked at WFC, was stupidly convenient, and incredibly relaxing/decompressing to take the late ferry ride in the dark across the river.
I think we are already at the point where the majority of the population has started to give up on govt. The voting numbers don’t lie, less and less people think their vote actually makes a difference. I don’t blame them for not voting, not like you have a real option for your everyday american. Not even 1 option. Maybe Bernie Saunders, but what chance does a guy like that have? No politicians will work with him to pass what he wants.
Libturd in Union says:
June 15, 2015 at 11:37 am
Christie did end up sucking. But why did you think he would be different than any other politician before him? Sadly, the least of the worst of all of NJ governors was probably Florio. That should say a lot.
Why would anyone work with a freak show like Bernie Sanders? Would be career suicide for anyone on either side of the aisle. Can’t get painted with the s0cial!st brush; that tag can’t ever be washed away.
OTOH, I sorta admire the guy. Seems rather honest, not a megalomaniac and stands behind who and what he is, without qualification or apology.
Guess that also means his candidacy is DOA.
I always got the feeling Bernie is VT’s ‘fcuk you’ to the rest of Amerika.
…but, what does that make Howard Dean?
I vote in nearly every election. I go in to the booth and type in “none of the above.”
It’s refreshing to read that I am among a growing number of the disenchanted who do the same. In the last presidential election, I was one of two to vote for “none of the above,” in Glen Ridge. And I don’t think Gator was the second.
[20] Condo
That explains why Colt ARs are suddenly priced competitively. I understand theirs to be superior workmanship but they used to be highly priced. Now I could get one for what I paid for my Bushmaster.
Colt focused on the M&P market and eschewed the residential market, probably for fear of p1ssing off their USG client. Now that client ain’t buying from them.
A hot girl driving a stick turns me on. Kinda like she is jerking off the car
Libturd in Union says:
June 15, 2015 at 11:35 am
leftwing. In my old manual tranny Civic hatchback days, I occasionally drove her in and worked a really long day. I remember a couple of times falling asleep waiting in the Holland Tunnel queue on Varick Street. One night, I was so tired, I accidentally bumped the person in front of me twice. I was pretty embarrassed. Being exhausted and driving a stick in stand still traffic is a deadly recipe. I mange two three-shift teams in the US and have a dotted line to a third three-shift team in Chennai, so now I leave early and just finish up from home, rather than killing myself in the city.
The reason I point to him is not because I agree with everything he stands for, but because he is actually an honest guy. He refuses to take payment from wealthy donors. He really is as honest as they come and really has America in his best interest. This is why he will never get elected. He is a corrupt politicians worst nightmare. They will never ever let him become president.
Splat What Was He Thinking says:
June 15, 2015 at 11:53 am
Why would anyone work with a freak show like Bernie Sanders? Would be career suicide for anyone on either side of the aisle. Can’t get painted with the s0cial!st brush; that tag can’t ever be washed away.
OTOH, I sorta admire the guy. Seems rather honest, not a megalomaniac and stands behind who and what he is, without qualification or apology.
Guess that also means his candidacy is DOA.
Yep back in the day a lot of Trannys by the Holland Tunnel
Libturd in Union says:
June 15, 2015 at 11:35 am
leftwing. In my old manual tranny Civic hatchback days, I occasionally drove her in and worked a really long day. I remember a couple of times falling asleep waiting in the Holland Tunnel queue
[44] D-FENS
That protest in front of his house was a joke. Something like 5 people. And a guy I know in the gun biz in NJ was the one who told me about it and said he was going. But I didn’t see his face in the news shots.
If the gun owners in NJ won’t stand up for their rights, they won’t have them for long. Glad I have no dog in that fight anymore.
[41] Moose,
You are correct in that the ARC would have saddled NJ with unimaginable debt. The Big Dig was a total boondoggle. Astonishingly, I recall reading case studies at Harvard two decades prior that predicted it, and I recall two legislators in Mass. advocated against it, warning it would cost far above its projections. They were derided as loony outliers but history proved them correct and their peers refused to meet their gazes for some time.
But now that I live in PA and still travel the corridor north at times, I would like to see it built. Nothing personal, but I am going to channel my liberal, free-rider mentality here and exert my “right” to get a benefit and hand you all the bill.
Few would benefit from it as much as my family. Both Gator and I commute into the city from 12 miles west of it. It’s already pathetic that it takes 45 minutes on a good day and closer to an hour on the average day.
Could you imagine what boston would be like had they not completed this? It’s going to cost a lot of money. You are not building over corn fields, but in a highly developed city. Everything costs more in a city. From the workers right down to the materials.
Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:
June 15, 2015 at 12:03 pm
[41] Moose,
You are correct in that the ARC would have saddled NJ with unimaginable debt. The Big Dig was a total boondoggle. Astonishingly, I recall reading case studies at Harvard two decades prior that predicted it, and I recall two legislators in Mass. advocated against it, warning it would cost far above its projections. They were derided as loony outliers but history proved them correct and their peers refused to meet their gazes for some time.
But now that I live in PA and still travel the corridor north at times, I would like to see it built. Nothing personal, but I am going to channel my liberal, free-rider mentality here and exert my “right” to get a benefit and hand you all the bill
Great boss!!
http://7online.com/business/nj-ceo-pays-for-college-for-workers-children-/785710/
Pumpkin. I am sort of tired of all the blame for NJ’s faults being passed on our governor. Is he ultimately responsible? What about our Congressman? Let’ s play a game, and see what our distinguished Senators and Reps have given us in the past:
Menendez – anything for NJ? Can’t think of anything, some Sandy funding, maybe?
Lautenberg – named a train stop after him. Yes, now I remember. He gave us the HOV lanes on rte 287 before they were taken out. Ban on airplane smoking, OK, big one there.
Toriccelli – wasn’t he a crook, like Mendendez. Snitched on some US spy. Got him killed.
Bill Bradley – My favorite. What in the life of Riley did this man do for the state of NJ?
James Howard – actually got some things for NJ, e.g. Rte 195
Any one I miss, good or bad?
Tax PLANNING (JJ Edition):
VIENNA – Book your flight now, as an Austrian brothel is now advertising a summer special that can’t be beat: free sex. The Oesterreich newspaper says the owner is getting screwed by taxes, prompting this promo: “Effective immediately: Free Entrance! Free Drinks! Free Sex!” Unclear how this affects the workforce; perhaps these women will just work with tips.
66- They are all to blame. My thing with Christie is that he is the head person in charge. He also came in talking a big game and has pretty much not come through on anything.
Instead, why don’t you ask Sweeney what he has done for NJ. My god, he put the kibosh on the pump-your-own in this state. Not that I wanted it, but it is what it is. No one can open the door on that stymied legislation, not even the guv. That’s how NJ is setup.
Now, the big dig was brought in by two guys who had the clout to do it. Chappaquiddick Teddy was known as a big fetcher of bacon. Why can’t our NJ guys do the same?
This guv blame game gets me upset, as I now see our local paper, the Hunterdon Democrat, being taken over by the Star Ledger editorialists. That includes the political cartoonist. The governor is pictured on every edition. As a result, this paper has now become a typical rag. I don’t enjoy reading it anymore.
It’s funny, I can’t remember the name of our other current Senator. Show’s you how well he is performing.
But…Christie is the Wm. Howard Taft of our time…
Christie only wishes he was Taft.
Rabbis and Hookers both work for Tips
……all those foreskins and all you made was a wallet?!? Yeah, but it you rub it grows into a suitcase…..
20 people, including members of Carol Bowne’s family.
It was organized by NJ2AS, which is only a 5 year old organization.
Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:
June 15, 2015 at 11:58 am
[44] D-FENS
That protest in front of his house was a joke. Something like 5 people. And a guy I know in the gun biz in NJ was the one who told me about it and said he was going. But I didn’t see his face in the news shots.
About Menendez.
He never talks about it. His support started back when he was Union City mayor.
Federal grants allowed it to expand. A few key physicians and politicians like him made it possible.
http://nhcac.org/
xolepa, you would be thinking about the completely lame and ineffective Corey Booker.
“Just as we hinted earlier when we reported that the ECB may use the “nuclear option” on Wednesday and yank Greek ELA, here comes German Suddeutsche Zeiting with a report that Eurozone countries have reached a Greek emergency plan (yay)… which calls for the imposition of capital controls on Greece if no deal is concluded by the weekend (oh no).”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-15/eurozone-impose-capital-controls-greece-if-no-deal-weekend-german-press
Thanks, splish splat. I thought it may have rhymed with Hooker
Back to the mundane, my hydronic gas boiler is at least 35 years old and I am looking to replace, it is a Weil-McClain, CGa-4 105 equivalent. Thoughts?
What do you want to bet that buried in this proposed legislation are changes to NJ law that would kill any recall efforts?
N.J. Democratic Legislative Leaders Unveil ‘Democracy Act’ to Overhaul New Jersey’s Outdated Voting Laws
http://www.assemblydems.com/Article.asp?ArticleID=9775
“The Democracy Act will modernize and improve state election laws to make voting easier and more accessible for the people of New Jersey,” said Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-Salem/Cumberland/Gloucester). “Elections are the foundation of democracy and anything we can do to increase voter participation will make government more effective and more responsive to the needs of everyone. Elections have consequences so we want every eligible voter to have a fair opportunity to participate in the electoral process.”
’87. I’m sort of an expert on that stuff. First question, do you have baseboard heat or radiant heat or both? Also, how old is your hot water heater?
79
Does it heat your water too?
Roughly where do you live in?
Water quality makes a difference with some of the higher efficiency products.
Anything north of the Raritan means stay away from SS hot water storage. Chlorides in the water turn the tanks into a sieve eventually.
@Slate:
Chris Christie goes to Iowa—and convinces one voter he’d make a great Education Secretary.
Among the small handful of Iowans I spoke to after the event, all said they were impressed with what they saw from Christie on Thursday. “He showed he’s not just that combative, in-your-face guy that he is in New Jersey,” said Frank Seydel, a local GOP party official in Story County, who suggested the more mild-mannered approach might play better in Iowa. When I asked if he would caucus for Christie when the time comes next year, though, Seydel said he wasn’t ready to commit to any candidate just yet. Unprompted, he then suggested Christie might be a good fit for a Cabinet-level position, “maybe Education Secretary.”
Maybe you should hire him privately Anon.
thanks W
@Salon:
The American middle class isn’t coming back — it’s going to die with the Baby Boomers
Suicide (JJ Edition):
A British dad-of-seven whose pen!s was hacked off in a gruesome roadside attack last year has been found dead.
Construction worker Kelvin “Kelly” Hewitt’s lifeless body was discovered at a property in Middlesbrough at 8:45 a.m. on Thursday, reports Gazette Live.
Cleveland cops are not treating his death as suspicious. The cause of death has not yet been determined, and an autopsy is due to take place Friday.
The 40-year-old’s passing comes just 14 months after he was brutally attacked by the side of the busy A66 highway.
Police were called to the scene in the early hours of March 12, 2014, after receiving reports that a blood soaked man was walking around in a “distressed state.”
It emerged that Hewitt’s pen!s had been removed and thrown away along the road.
He was rushed to hospital and placed into an induced coma while officers hunted for his missing member.
In 2014, Hewitt was found blood-soaked and wandering around in a “distressed state” along the side of the highway where he was attacked.
It’s never been made clear whether they found his phallus, or what sparked the savage attack in the first place.
A man was arrested in connection with the attack, but was later released without charge.
Hewitt was released from James Cook University Hospital two weeks later. Police closed their investigation in July 2014. No one has ever been charged.
Friends paid tribute to Hewitt on hearing the news of his death.
“There will be a lot of people at his funeral, he was a really popular bloke. I think everybody will be gutted in the community because he was a good lad,” said one.
Dom Deluise knows he has no shot ever since Bridgegate, and certainly realistically well before…..he has been campaigning for a career in DC in the executive branch and then subsequently as a lobbyist for months…..everything else is nonsense….these are the last month we will ever hear from him in NJ again…..
anon (the good one) says:
June 15, 2015 at 3:14 pm
@Slate:
Chris Christie goes to Iowa—and convinces one voter he’d make a great Education Secretary.
Among the small handful of Iowans I spoke to after the event, all said they were impressed with what they saw from Christie on Thursday. “He showed he’s not just that combative, in-your-face guy that he is in New Jersey,” said Frank Seydel, a local GOP party official in Story County, who suggested the more mild-mannered approach might play better in Iowa. When I asked if he would caucus for Christie when the time comes next year, though, Seydel said he wasn’t ready to commit to any candidate just yet. Unprompted, he then suggested Christie might be a good fit for a Cabinet-level position, “maybe Education Secretary.”
My last strip down/rebuild was on the lake house in NY state, highly sulfured water. This is how I sidestepped water issues. You fill with distilled or glycol solution: http://axiomind.sasktelwebhosting.com/mf200.php
@SenSanders:
It’s time to raise the minimum wage so that a minimum-wage job will lift a person out of poverty not keep them in it
@CorrectRecord: .@JebBush called for an end to the federal minimum wage.
anon (the good one),
What do you do for a living?
“thanks W”
The epitome of pathetic.
…and NJ now requires LWCOs on every new installation. That I installed in Quincy MA 2 weeks ago for my son and DIL. Don’t know if Mass requires them, but after my DIL’s father tried to turn the unit back on after I shut the gas down and drained the water (after moving some pipes around) I said we ain’t taking no chances. Luckily, he called his daughter a few minutes after he kicked it on. DIL said turn the damned thing off ASAP. I warned her couple days earlier.
Can’t knock the old man, heehee. He, like my brother, retired in his 50s after a serious $$ buyout. Changed his residency to Fl. to avoid NJ income, inheritance and estate taxes. Still has a home in south Jersey. Otherwise, he’s damn good at house repair.
Actually, we partnered together on several projects in the past few weeks up in Quincy. Great to be away from the wives. Working hard during the day and then heading to the local Irish pub for $4.50 23 ouncers of craft beer.
#81..it is baseboard. Unit was here in 1993…some documentation implies it was installed in 1987…Water heater is new, 2011. Thanks.
(93) Stick with your recommendation. It is an atmospheric exhaust, and if that’s what you have now, it will be the cheapest, most reliable way to go. Also, it’s cast iron, will last another 30 years while the newer, ultra-hi end stuff will last half that and cost twice over. The cost of higher efficiency will never be recovered unless gas triples in price.
Just make sure the new install is up to code, like I mentioned. Also, make sure there are separate shutoffs for the supply and return on each zone along with boiler drains and one-way valves for each zone. Better yet, use uni-flo isolation valves for every circulator. This way it will be a cinch to maintain the unit.
As for the circulator(s), think of installing a Taco Bumblebee or Grundfus variable speed circulator. Grundfus is much quieter. And put in a good air separator. Spirovent is the main choice. For the water supply, use a good sediment filter in-line if you have bad water or go to a higher level, like my earlier suggestion.
Print out the suggested installation layout from the owners manual. Stick to it.
How many zones?
#94..thanks. 4 zones….PSEG just quoted me $7,800..which seems high since I see the boiler on the “internet” for $1,940. Thoughts on pricing?
4 zones – have a relay switch installed instead of separate controllers – this is my recommended model: http://www.supplyhouse.com/Taco-SR506-4-6-Zone-Switching-Relay. If you ever switch to an indirect hot water heater, you will need the 6 zone version.
The internet price is correct. I have gotten 30% off list from my local plumbing house on Weil-Mclain, so that sounds fine. PSE&G is an acronym for ‘paying-too-much’. Their warranties that they try to sell you also state that they can return your premiums if they deem that cheaper than the repair costs. Stay away from that.
Either way, add about a grand for other parts: copper, valves, solder, separator, etc. Circulators (hmmm. how old are they?) are about $180 each for the variable ones, about $75 for the standard ones. 2 grand max for all parts. rest is profit.
About 3 days work for an experienced heating guy. 2 days for two guys. It’s the unknowns that make them jack up the price
Great, thanks! Appreciated!
np
Do not replace it until it is dead.
Scrap a running boiler for a higher efficiency unit and you’ll never see payback due to fuel cost savings.
Hell, you’ll probably never see payback at all. Your old cast iron weil mclain will last longer than a new condensing boiler installed tomorrow will.
Plenty of Cast Iron manufacturers have warranties 20 years and beyond. There are some that will still provide a 25% prorate after 25 years. There are plenty of fancy condensing manufacturers that won’t even go 10 years.
From PA-18 Rep Tim Murphy’s letter of 3 June 2015:
Twenty years ago, long before I arrived in Congress, the North American Free Trade Agreement was signed into law because Congress gave former President Clinton “Fast Track” authority to negotiate trade agreements with foreign countries. He made bad trade deals, along with each president after him, without any accountability or enforcement measures in the basic framework and what we saw was factories shutting down here in the United States and moving to countries like China and Mexico. The Fast Track model on trade has proven to be an unmitigated disaster. Factories like the former Sony plant that was once thriving in Westmoreland County, closed up shop and moved to Mexico along with those local jobs. Now they are selling the very same products once made back home and providing jobs outside the country. The lessons learned are clear: No trade agreements without effective, fair, and enforceable standards and no more handing over the keys of our economy to the President under “Fast Track” authority.
He voted Aye on June 12th with respect to:
Concurring in Senate amendments with amendment: H R 644 Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015
Concurring in portion of senate amendment preceding title II: H R 1314 Trade Adjustment Assistance Reauthorization Act of 2015
I got a code enforcement warning for my lawn, which I mowed two or three weeks ago. My neighbor’s house looks like they’ve abandoned it (they haven’t) and has 4′ weeds growing in the garden.
Hopefully they just decided to slap me on the wrist while they were next door issuing a fine. Otherwise I must have a secret enemy.
2-3 weeks? I can’t go 3 days.
Mowed on Saturday. After today’s rain, and tomorrow, I’ll be mowing again on Wednesday for sure.
[92] xolepa
I know only one politician in Quincy. Bruce Ayers. Good guy. If he is still invoked in politics and you need a friend, hit up grim for my email.
[64] pumpkin
“Could you imagine what boston would be like had they not completed this?”
No. But then again, I didn’t have to imagine as it’s still a vivid memory.
# 104 [Wiley]
“…Otherwise I must have a secret enemy.”
Most likely.
A place I used to live back in the 90s had a high percentage of retired guys. They knew EVERY ordinance and would pester the police to enforce them.
What they didn’t know was NJ Fish and Wildlife law… draw/M.A.D.
Talk about control freaks! I caught one of them measuring my lawn! (it was not that high).
I feel like they’re infringing on my personal gardening style.
The Big Dig gave the world the unintended consequence of the toll-free western Mass Pike, don’t knock it. Also you can walk to the North End for grinders now.
#101…never considered high efficiency…never get paid back..only plan another 5 years or so in the house…I think I’ll see if old Betsy can make it to age 35 or so….
[109] wily
“Also you can walk to the North End for grinders now.”
Tourist.
My partner and I went here coming from a different website and thought I might as well check things out. I like what I see so now i’m following you. Look forward to going over your web page repeatedly.