Bubble? Already?

From CNN:

Rising home prices aren’t all good news

Nationwide, the median home price increased 8.2% to $229,400 in the second quarter compared to 2014, according to the National Association of Realtors.

First, the good news: Higher prices increase home equity and help bring some owners above water and increase their wealth.

“People with a lot of equity are more likely to start small businesses and are more likely to move up the economic ladder,” said Bill Wheaton, an economics professor at MIT. “Having collateral propels you in life.”

Now, the bad news: Incomes haven’t kept up. While the unemployment rate has dropped from 10% in October 2009 to the current 5.1%, pay growth has been slow. Hourly earnings rose just 2.2% in August from the year before.

Sluggish wage growth makes it harder for buyers to enter the market — particularly first timers and borderline borrowers.

“When home prices are far outstripping incomes, it will take out the marginal buyer who can qualify for a certain loan and down payment. If home prices continue to increase, those properties are no longer affordable,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com.

Home prices have recovered unevenly across the housing spectrum. “Homes in the bottom third of the market are appreciating faster on an annual basis than those on the top,” said Zillow’s Chief Economist Svenja Gudell.

“At the same time, incomes at the bottom are flat, and sometimes even declining where incomes at the top are mildly rising.”

“That is too much. You can’t sustain that. If you think of the average worker, what are they to do?”

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

60 Responses to Bubble? Already?

  1. Essex says:

    Burble…..Burble….burble….(friskies)

  2. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “The global surplus of oil is even bigger than Goldman Sachs Group Inc. thought and that could drive prices as low as $20 a barrel.
    While it’s not the base-case scenario, a failure to reduce production fast enough may require prices near that level to clear the oversupply, Goldman said in a report e-mailed Friday while cutting its Brent and WTI crude forecasts through 2016. The International Energy Agency predicted that crude stockpiles will diminish in the second half of next year as supply outside OPEC declines by the most since 1992.
    “The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected and we now forecast this surplus to persist in 2016,” Goldman analysts including Damien Courvalin wrote in the report. “We continue to view U.S. shale as the likely near-term source of supply adjustment.””

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-11/-20-oil-possible-for-goldman-as-forecasts-cut-on-growing-glut

  3. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Shrinking supplies outside OPEC show that Saudi Arabia’s strategy to defend the group’s market share by pressuring rivals with lower prices “appears to be having the intended effect,” the IEA said. Brent crude futures, a benchmark used around the world, slumped to a six-year low near $42 a barrel on Aug. 24. Production may not be falling fast enough to clear the global surplus and prices could drop as low as $20, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-11/oil-supply-outside-opec-to-fall-most-since-1992-iea-forecasts

  4. Anon E. Moose says:

    Gourd [2];

    See, I’m old enough to remember when the scare du jour was “Peak Oil”. Ahh well. Go re-read Adam Smith until you understand it, then you won’t be worried about $20 oil or $200 oil.

  5. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [title post];

    I can’t help but wonder if this is what the cheerleaders talk about when they say the Bears have predicted 10 of the last 4 bubble collapses.

  6. Essex says:

    It’ll be OK, but lest you forget. Freedom, aint Free.
    Crushed Valor can never be redeemed.

  7. Ragnar says:

    Looks like the “peak oil” talk spikes with the oil price. Last hurrah was 2008.

    https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22peak%20oil%22

  8. Ragnar says:

    My view is that winning countries celebrate victories over their enemies rather than commemorating and reminding people of their losses. Like having a day for celebrating the destruction of Al Qaeda, eating pork barbecue while displaying OBL’s head on a stick.

  9. grim says:

    Glad we decided to stick to burning dinosaurs to make whiskey.

  10. chicagofinance says:

    New from lead singer of Depeche Mode……
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxNNJVbQeb0

  11. Nomad says:

    #2 & #3, re oil prices:

    For US fracking, anyone know what % of the companies pulling the oil out of the ground is variable? Do frackers have leases on the land or do they typically own it? Rigs, people to operate rigs are full time employees or contractors? Does anyone really believe oil can get to $20? At that price, US is not energy independent and our economy is in a world of hurt.

  12. Nomad says:

    meant to say % of companies total expenses

  13. Libturd in Union says:

    Peak oil arguments were always based on the support of Jevons paradox. Perhaps Jevons was wrong?

    Regardless of the price of oil, fed policy and a potential housing bubble, it’s nice to know that there remains one bulletproof constant.

    ChiFi’s manlove for Depeche Mode.

    “New from lead singer of Depeche Mode……”

  14. HeHateMe says:

    People are People what can I say

  15. Wily Millenial says:

    I’ve been a peak oil loon since 2004. It’s still coming. A runup in production and a slowdown in demand doesn’t suddenly make the amount of extractable oil infinite. Buy property near bus lines.

  16. chicagofinance says:

    I used to live right on the Hudson River…..that is a great “staring at the Hudson River” song on a nasty day, or Montauk……

  17. Libturd in Union says:

    I am still convinced that technology will conquer peak oil. Heck, it’s the reason that cars no longer run on whale oil.

  18. chicagofinance says:

    fundamentally disagree with you…….the main reason alt-energy is a boondoggle regardless of any other factor……why do you think the hysteria level has risen over the last few years by the Obamunists? They know they are sailing into a stiff wind……

    Wily Millenial says:
    September 11, 2015 at 10:42 am
    I’ve been a peak oil loon since 2004. It’s still coming. A runup in production and a slowdown in demand doesn’t suddenly make the amount of extractable oil infinite. Buy property near bus lines.

  19. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Answer says:

    [17] lib

    Good one! If I were drinking my coffee while reading, I’d be cleaning my screen right now.

  20. [17] I agree. Technology will conquer peak oil, but peak oil is coming. Hydraulic fracturing is currently depleting the fossil fuels of future generations. As I understand it, the shale layer lies below the layer from which oil and gas is normally harvested. Without fracking, that oil and gas would eventually rise up to the conventional drilling layers, but of course it won’t if it’s already gone.

  21. phoenix says:

    “On Thursday, a special House committee recommended the expulsion of both freshmen tea party legislators, who had based legislation on their Christian beliefs and clashed with GOP leadership even before the controversy broke.” Yup….

    On the other hand, who would argue that a Republican Vulcan would not be logical….
    “Live long and prosper”

    “In calling for both legislators’ expulsion, Rep. Ed McBroom, a Republican from Vulcan in the Upper Peninsula who chaired the disciplinary panel, said: “These two members have obliterated the public trust. They’ve obliterated the trust of their colleagues. And each day that they continue here they reduce the public trust in this institution.”

    http://news.yahoo.com/michigan-house-standstill-over-expelling-2-lawmakers-052431423.html

  22. Juice Box says:

    We will conquer peak oil on our solar and wind driven bicycles.

  23. Most of what I know about fracking I learned last weekend watching this video. If you have an hour to kill, it’s pretty informative.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQMx9ehua9s

  24. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Answer says:

    [18] chifi

    I am in the peak oil camp although I concede it will be hard to know when we will or have hit the peak. But basic science tells us we are using it faster than it is produced, and it isn’t really being produced. Technological advances will put that day off, perhaps for an appreciable period, but there will be a day (long after we are gone) that there will simply be no oil and other products will have taken their place.

    Unfortunately, change doesn’t usually occur without crisis or disruption. Much as I dislike most of his policies, I give this president credit for teeing up an issue that deserves attention. But as with most things this administration does, I disagree profoundly on how they have gone about it.

  25. I was surprised to learn that fracking is a two week mobile operation. It takes about 10 days to set up and test the fracturing rig, maybe as little as two days to fracture and extract, then everything gets torn down and moved somewhere else. They mix and test all their chemicals in a Breaking Bad type RV and all of the water is trucked in and pumped directly from the trucks during the fracturing process. Also, (improper?) disposal of the waste water afterwards can cause earth quakes.

    #2 & #3, re oil prices:

    For US fracking, anyone know what % of the companies pulling the oil out of the ground is variable? Do frackers have leases on the land or do they typically own it? Rigs, people to operate rigs are full time employees or contractors? Does anyone really believe oil can get to $20? At that price, US is not energy independent and our economy is in a world of hurt.

  26. [13] Yogi Berra completely debunked the Jevons paradox:

    “Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowderd”

  27. Nomad says:

    Lib,

    #17 – Honda CRV Turbo Diesel in UK gets 72 MPG. VW diesel in US like Passat gets 44 mpg. With more investment in diesel tech, advanced drivetrains, CVT or otherwise, a nice chunk of the problem is solved.

  28. Libturd in Union says:

    Yup!

    My old Civic got 45 MPG. That’s without a hybrid. A lot of problems could be solved if we just drove smaller cars. In Bermuda, there are more mopeds than cars. Then again, gas is $9 a gallon currently.

  29. phoenix says:

    Size of car proportionate to gas price- short term American thinking.
    Gas price goes down, Yukon/Escalade sales go up.
    Marketing gimmicks train Americans to buy car based on their image.
    Are you sporty?
    Are you fun?
    Are you practical?
    Are you a rugged man?
    You are judged in the USA by the car you drive. Eg: Woman driving large pickup, man driving a Prius.
    You should choose a car/truck based on need, not personality.
    That would be logical. Marketing has more to do with personality than logic.
    In the USA, they teach you never to judge a book by it’s cover. Then they do JUST THE OPPOSITE……..

  30. chicagofinance says:

    Did you sleep in a Holiday Inn Express too?

    The Great Trumpkin says:
    September 11, 2015 at 11:21 am
    Most of what I know about fracking I learned last weekend watching this video. If you have an hour to kill, it’s pretty informative.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQMx9ehua9s

  31. ccb223 says:

    $20 oil would be the best thing to happen to the US Economy. Sure there would be some short term pain for the small part of the U.S. population that is employed in the space (a disproportionate amount of pain for them) but the ensuing cheaper oil prices for all will be a boon to the U.S. Economy in the long run. Less money spent on gas, more money available to be spent elsewhere.

  32. HeHateMe says:

    Bigger saving is just to drive less.

    Libturd in Union says:
    September 11, 2015 at 12:23 pm
    Yup!

    My old Civic got 45 MPG. That’s without a hybrid. A lot of problems could be solved if we just drove smaller cars. In Bermuda, there are more mopeds than cars. Then again, gas is $9 a gallon currently.

  33. Libturd in Union says:

    Just wait till XMAS.

  34. Juice Box says:

    American Dream looks to be going upscale, no NASCAR and no Ferris wheel.

    “Lord & Taylor and Saks Fifth Avenue will set up shop in the multi-billion dollar project in the Meadowlands, still slated to open in summer of 2017, according to Triple Five. Saks will also open a 30,000-square-foot outlet store, Saks Fifth Avenue Off 5th.”

    http://www.nj.com/bergen/index.ssf/2015/09/meadowlands_megamall_lands_2_major_department_stores.html#incart_river

  35. NJT says:

    36 MPG in 1976!

    Dart (Dodge) Lite

    In response to increased interest in fuel economy, Dodge offered the “Dart Lite” fuel economy package which weighed at least 150 lb (68 kg) less than the ordinary Dart Sport.[43] The 225 Slant Six was the only available engine, equipped with an aluminum intake manifold for the first time since 1960 and a specially calibrated carburetor and distributor. Bumper reinforcement brackets were aluminum instead of steel, while the hood and trunk lid bracing and inner panels were also aluminum. The Slant Six engine block had already been modified for reduced weight in 1975; in the middle of 1976 production its crankshaft was changed from forged steel to lighter cast iron. The high-flow exhaust system included a dual-biscuit catalytic converter, a 2¼” headpipe, and the muffler used on V8 models. The Dart Lite was equipped with a 2.94:1 rear axle rather than the customary 3.21:1 ratio when the car was ordered with a three- or four-speed manual transmission. The A833OD overdrive 4-speed manual transmission housing was made of aluminum. Like all other Darts, the Dart Lites with automatic transmission came with a 2.76:1 rear axle as standard equipment.[43] The Dart Lite with manual transmission was rated by the EPA at 36 mpg (6.5 l/100km) in highway driving. The Plymouth version was the Feather Duster.

    A buddy had one in college. We used it most of the time (better than the 8-10MPG that my ’65 Galaxy got – it did have a HUGE V8 and looked…killer) well, except for going down the shore.

    If they could make a DART back then get 36MPG…

    Had a Ford escort that got in the high 40s but it was a stick, I coasted down all hills and did the suction thing behind tractor trailers (over 50MPG with that tactic on long trips).

  36. Ron Jermany says:

    29: PHX,

    I read somewhere (maybe here) that car ads aren’t to entice you to buy, but to make you feel better about what you’ve already purchased.

  37. chicagofinance says:

    Cheap oil and gas (especially relatively cheaper oil and gas in the continental U.S. versus elsewhere -i.e. fracking advantage) = more manufacturing coming back here from China and also stealing it from the backward overregulated PC morons in Germany et al…….Europe is hamstrung by Obamunist wannabes…..also, let California fall into the ocean and remove any semblance of business too……

    ccb223 says:
    September 11, 2015 at 12:54 pm
    $20 oil would be the best thing to happen to the US Economy. Sure there would be some short term pain for the small part of the U.S. population that is employed in the space (a disproportionate amount of pain for them) but the ensuing cheaper oil prices for all will be a boon to the U.S. Economy in the long run. Less money spent on gas, more money available to be spent elsewhere.

  38. Ragnar says:

    Cars are heavier than they were back in the 80s, partly because of safety standards. Multiple airbags, more body structure, etc. Carmakers can make lighter cars but the materials expense is quite high. You can buy more expensive stronger steel, or even more expensive and lighter aluminum, and at the exotic level incorporate carbon fiber in significant body parts, which BMW is starting to do with its cars.

    Vehicles are also heavier because Americans are heavily into self-denial and thus buy SUVs when they could be buying minivans and station wagons. They also choose to buy for peak people/cargo capacity rather than average load capacity, which is fully justifiable given that US fuel costs aren’t particularly prohibitive vs incomes.

    So while underlying engine efficiencies have improved massively since the 1980s, Americans have chosen to roll those power per fuel units improvements into more powerful, safer, and larger vehicles, rather than parlaying them into significantly lower operating costs.

  39. joyce says:

    Any chance you can unmoderate my long post Grim?

  40. joyce says:

    36
    When he finds out that the Secretary of Commerce spends government money every year to bolster consumer confidence in a car they’ve previously purchased, Dave says, “I don’t want to tell some eight-year-old kid he’s gotta sleep in the street because we want people to feel better about their car. Do you want to tell them that?” Obviously embarrassed by his own words, the secretary quietly replies, “No sir, I sure don’t.”
    (from the movie Dave)

  41. 1987 Condo says:

    “Vehicles are also heavier because Americans are heavily into self-denial and thus buy SUVs when they could be buying minivans and station wagons”…thought you were going to end with Americans are just plain heavier….

  42. 1987 Condo says:

    Serena lost

  43. HeHateMe says:

    If she went Transgender it would be a really easy makeover

    September 11, 2015 at 3:00 pm

    Serena lost

  44. Juice Box says:

    re#43 – Vinci was a 300-to-1 underdog

  45. HeHateMe says:

    The Italians are not afraid of the man sisters

  46. chicagofinance says:

    Don’t you have a video of you presenting some aspect of this analysis?
    Ragnar says:
    September 11, 2015 at 1:56 pm
    Cars are heavier than they were back in the 80s, partly because of safety standards. Multiple airbags, more body structure, etc. Carmakers can make lighter cars but the materials expense is quite high. You can buy more expensive stronger steel, or even more expensive and lighter aluminum, and at the exotic level incorporate carbon fiber in significant body parts, which BMW is starting to do with its cars.

    Vehicles are also heavier because Americans are heavily into self-denial and thus buy SUVs when they could be buying minivans and station wagons. They also choose to buy for peak people/cargo capacity rather than average load capacity, which is fully justifiable given that US fuel costs aren’t particularly prohibitive vs incomes.

    So while underlying engine efficiencies have improved massively since the 1980s, Americans have chosen to roll those power per fuel units improvements into more powerful, safer, and larger vehicles, rather than parlaying them into significantly lower operating costs.

  47. Ragnar says:

    chifi,
    I did have a video on autos, but don’t think I focused on that angle. Perhaps on the rising levels of efficiency still available for internal combustion engines with alternative means offering better cost/benefit for efficiency than highly expensive hybrid/EV technology which gets most of the media hype.
    Would rather not reveal my identity on this board given the increasing # and level of crazies within.

  48. chicagofinance says:

    wasn’t I sufficiently vague?

    Ragnar says:
    September 11, 2015 at 4:11 pm
    chifi,
    I did have a video on autos, but don’t think I focused on that angle. Perhaps on the rising levels of efficiency still available for internal combustion engines with alternative means offering better cost/benefit for efficiency than highly expensive hybrid/EV technology which gets most of the media hype.
    Would rather not reveal my identity on this board given the increasing # and level of crazies within.

  49. chicagofinance says:

    BTW I agree with you….. my situation is a little different than yours……

  50. Ragnar says:

    Chi,
    Yes, no problem. I just wanted to avoid a link to the video(s).
    More coming. They just took the raw video of me a couple days ago.

  51. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [35] I used to do that too. I was doing it one day in my friend’s VW Beetle and suddenly a little tiny red light came on (no temp gauge). I stared at it for a few seconds and then a larger light bulb went on above my head. “Duh! Air-cooled engine”. I pulled out of the 18-wheeler’s draft and the light went off shortly thereafter.

    BTW, I drove our family’s ’72 Vega all the time shutting it off (actually turning to “Acc” so the wheel wouldn’t lock ) down hills. It had manual steering and brakes so it handled exactly the same with the engine not turning. down at the bottom of hills I would turn the key back to “On”(idiot dash lights on), put the clutch in, dropped it in 3rd or 4th, let the clutch out to effortlessly restart and continue on my way.

    Had a Ford escort that got in the high 40s but it was a stick, I coasted down all hills and did the suction thing behind tractor trailers (over 50MPG with that tactic on long trips).

  52. Not Joyce says:

    You all just have to admit that we have gone 3rd world with the police shooting thing.

    Let me clarify it. It always happened, it just that the blinders just came off, sort of the enhance interrogation technique/torture bit.

    Just do what they do in the 3rd world. Get one of these http://www.landrover.com/experiences/news/range-rover-sentinel.html

    So you can drive till a “safer” location.

  53. Comrade Nom Deplume, celebrating first day of school says:

    [53] not Joyce

    Another mile marker on society’s Road To Hell

  54. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [53] If what you mean by “3rd world” is not respecting the authority of the police, then I agree. I also hate, hate, hate that the media uses a phrase to paint the law disobeyer in the best light with “unarmed” as the universal prefix. “Unarmed mother”, not “High-as-a-kite drug addict”, “Unarmed black teenager” not “Felon as recently as 10 minutes previous”, etc. Don’t get me started on the cherry-picked pictures accompanying all the articles. Also, #blacklivesmatter, but apparently not to the demographic that is taking the most black lives.

    You all just have to admit that we have gone 3rd world with the police shooting thing.

  55. Alex Bevan says:

    55

    Or ” Former world ranked #4 tennis player, Harvard graduate”. Same thing.

  56. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [56] Exactly.

  57. grim says:

    Regarding EV – I mentioned that we lemon law’ed the EV here, right? Well, settled rather, so I can’t mention too many specifics.

    The summary was – Electrical issues with the 12v charging system. Jump starting a just-charged EV seemed like it was a problem to me, they didn’t think so, we won. They paid us back nearly the entirety of the 2 year ownership costs, thought it was pretty generous actually. Got a new Accord V6 Touring in it’s place.

    I may consider the new Tesla though, but I’ll wait a year. The 30-40 mile very-cold-winter range of the EV was a killer.

  58. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [58] Grim – you’re a cyclist, right? Have you ever thought about how even the best maintained bicycle needs a little something every 1000 miles or so? And the systems on a bike are so bare-bones simple and easy to understand, yet it needs a little lube here, I just rode in the rain, so I have to lube the chain, my expensive as hell $50 120 psi tires are starting to get a little worn and flat down the center, etc. With that in mind, isn’t it amazing how a gas-engined car doesn’t need anything except an oil change over 5,000 miles despite being a 3000+ pound beast with a myriad of more complex systems? Hell, you can drive a car right through the Winter without really paying any special attention to your vehicle. To me, the contrast is pretty amazing.

  59. joyce says:

    55
    What a ridiculous comment.

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