So far away

From the Star Ledger:

Home prices in N.J. slower to climb than previously thought, report says

While New Jersey home prices are climbing steadily, they won’t reach their previous peak for another seven years, according to a report.

Jeffrey Otteau of East Brunswick-based Otteau Valuation Group told the slow pace at which home sales are increasing in New Jersey is to blame.

Otteau once expected prices to peak in 2018, 2019 or 2020 but he revised that prediction to 2023.

Home prices have climbed 3 percent in 2016 and should rise at the same rate next year, the report said.

Home prices in the New York metropolitan area, which includes northern and part of Central Jersey were nearly 15 percent below their 2006 peak as of late September. Real estate values in the area are now about where they were near the end of 2004.

The good news is that millennials are approaching an age where they might consider purchasing a home. About 325,000 New Jerseyans in that age range might look to buy in the next decade.

The bad news for sellers is that New Jersey’s job growth in 2016 is also slower than in 2015. The state’s unemployment rate is 5.3 percent compared to the national average of 5.

Census numbers released last month show median household income rose 5.2 percent nationwide in 2015.

New Jersey, however, didn’t fare as well as the rest of the nation. The Garden State only saw a 0.3 percent in median household income from 2014 to 2015.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

28 Responses to So far away

  1. Essex says:

    Phirst — And this does bear out what I have been seeing in all but the toniest towns.

  2. Essex says:

    So pumpkin….you can essentially take this single article and stick it way up into your cranium and see the nightmare that IS home ownership in this State. The State of Whitman, Corzine, the one dude who was ghey, and Christie. All four of these complete tools has taken the wind out of the sales. Or let’s say that forces have conspired against any semblance of a recovery in my little town…..Coming Home After School….riding my bike past the gates of the factorrrriiiiess….

  3. Anon E. Moose, saying 'Come back, JJ' says:

    In honor of Clot, here’s the Hillary-voter centipede. I’m pretty sure puzzy, buttocks, et al. are in there, but they would recognize each other in this position far better than I can.

  4. Comrade Nom Deplorable, Red Shopper says:

    I found this to be an interesting way to analyze something we all know intrinsically. I’m sure that the self-deluded elites (Fabius, Footrest, Twitiot, etc.) will scream confirmation bias but I didn’t necessarily think his framework worked well to analyze the issue. Sort of like laying a mathematical model over a diagram of a cell, I didn’t think it fit. But the premise he starts with, and the conclusions he draws are verifiable through other social science models and have been. I especially liked the link between drug addiction and political (read economic) frustration as it isn’t just intuitive as we have all sort of known that forever.

  5. 30 year realtor says:

    There is little doubt that values are sideways or leaking downward in much of North Jersey. I have seen countless examples of similar/equal properties selling for the same or less than comps from a year earlier. Many of these examples are located in very desirable communities.

  6. 3b says:

    30year : I am seeming listings in my blue ribbony town at asking prices that the sellers paid for in 04 /05 or slightly more.

  7. 30 year realtor says:

    I currently have an estate owned property in Closter on the market. House was built in 1954 and never updated. An addition was put on in the early 60’s and the floor plan is poor.

    House across the street on a substantially less desirable lot was purchased in 7/15 for $483,000 and demolished. New home constructed on lot on market for 1.6 million. Currently 4 offers on my listing and all are below selling price of knockdown across the street.

    Market is active. No shortage of buyers. No signs of appreciation in market. Values are drifting sideways and slightly downward.

  8. Essex says:

    Of all the board posters it is STU who most capitalized on the trends in NNJ.
    There may be more out there, But Stu hit the jackpot. Gary, you probably paid near the top. I dunno. If I jump next year I am essentially saying I care nothing about money.

  9. ScutaRE says:

    30 Yr – $1.6mm is super aggressive for that side of Closter. Should move for $1.3mm maximum if they get lucky.

  10. Fabius Maximus says:

    30 year,

    I see that builder specials are getting picky. Lot type and location is coming back into style. Some specials are just sitting on the market and then sell way under list. On the other end you seem to have a 1.3mil sweet spot for move in ready. In the middle if it needs a spot of paint its not shifting and a lot of 500-800K are looking at a big loss to sell.

  11. Anon E. Moose, saying 'Come back, JJ' says:

    Buttocks [20:47];

    I’ll make you a deal: you stop pretending abortion is about “choice”; or “health care” (what exactly does the procedure do to improve the health of the child? Primum non nocere) or anything but killing an inconvenient child, and I won’t ever claim that “life” in all its forms is always worth saving at all costs.

    BTW, the author seems to not be able to see past his own biases — why single out whites? Why do blacks and latinos who are opposed to abortion escape his wrath?

  12. Essex says:

    Let’s agree though, that it is a personal choice and to have the government mandate womens’ healthcare decisions is a horrible precedent. Terrible!!

  13. D-FENS says:

    Armatix to build a 9mm smart gun and market it to the US. The plan is to make some law enforcement agencies buy it triggering NJ’s 2002 law outlawing all other conventional pistols. Buy one while you can.

  14. Connect the dots:

    Tim Kaine was picked as veep well over a year ago and Bob Glennon had loose lips about it:

    Who is Bob Glennon? A lobbyist at Hogan Lovells:

    Does Hogan Lovells sound familiar?

  15. Connect the dots:

    Tim Kaine was picked as veep well over a year ago and Bob Glennon was telling people:

    Who is Bob Glennon? A lobbyist at Hogan Lovells:

    Does Hogan Lovells sound familiar?

  16. grim – in mod, if you’re not busy.

  17. Brazilian Butt Lift says:

    Condo prices in New York metro area are above previous peak but media and bloggers ignore this fact.

  18. Juice Box says:

    re: Condos.

    When you are asking 39% above the sale price from two years ago the YES condos are in a bubble again.

    Gotta love that listing on Jefferson too 1.2 million and you may need a raft to get to work when it rains.

  19. Well I signed an 8 month lease on a furnished house today for January 1st. So now I can clear the family out of our 900 square foot condo, prep it, and hopefully sell it to a greater fool for $400K or thereabouts. My best hopes are that I can sell in early Spring, the RE market crashes and then I can buy back in the fall. If not, I’ll extend the lease a year or rent elsewhere in Boston. If the market crashes before Spring, I can rent my place for a about $500 per month less than the house is costing me.

  20. leftwing says:

    30, why not allow a conventional mortgage, the estate?

    M.O. around us was for smaller builders to buy with conventional financing then load the reno/builder loan on top after closing. Mutually beneficial. It’s how I got in way back when, builder’s conventional mortgage got hung and they were at risk of losing deposit.

    Related, on values, my town is back to pre- levels. Last house I sold where I had a shovel in the ground was in 10/2014. Since then these builders have exploded. Used to be four or five main guys, plus a couple hangers-on (like me). Everyone knew everybody. I drive around around now there has to be a dozen builder names I don’t recognize with very out of town area codes and exchanges.

    Some real marginal properties. New guy with a $2.5m 6,500 ft2 six bedroom. Grade school is your backyard. House is situated on a corner fronting the perpendicular street so the school (and its drop off loop) is literally in your backyard, not next to it. High volume school as well. Standard issue half acre.

    Another new builder knockdown across from the combined HS/grade school (two separate buildings next to eachother, six grades in total). Same deal. Monster faux limestone with the requisite multiple double chimneys (all pressboard zero clearance of course).

    Couple more on a main county road (not a ‘nice’ country road). Major renos, leaving original structures. Probably to be able come in measurably south of $2m given location….Nice of them……

    Knock downs are back to putting a floor of $800k-900k on any property with decent location. Rest of inventory follows suit.

    The more things change…..

  21. Condo prices in Boston are WAY above peak. That’s why I’m selling. Bought at $260K in 2002, mortgage is down to $80K, looks like I should be able to sell for $400k, optimistically as high as $440K. Even if I’m early, I’m more than happy to get off this train in the black before the college tuition bubble (tied to lots and lots of salaries up here) collapses.

    Condo prices in New York metro area are above previous peak but media and bloggers ignore this fact.

  22. STEAMturd knows hyper incarceration makes hyper gentrification oh so much easier says:

    What’s all this housing talk?

  23. Ben says:


    my mom bought a POS co-op in Greenwich Village right outside the Con-Ed plant for 250k in 2002. She just sold it for 450k. Maybe you can get the higher end.

  24. I’m glad I didn’t read this while drinking coffee, Lib. I would have sprayed my monitor. (did I just out myself as someone who uses a desktop computer instead of a phone?)

    What’s all this housing talk?

  25. Thanks Ben. Once I get the family moved I have to do a cost/benefit analysis of improvements. Hardwood floor refinishing and paint are a no-brainer. Fireplace was recently lined and in perfect condition. Kitchen was last done in 1979 (Almond colored stove (Convectionaire) and fridge, Red tile backsplash, etc. Original 1926 Tile, Tub, and Toilet in the bathroom, only the sink and vanity has been replaced. The toilet is a literal work of art, (made by Camden Pottery, but emblazoned with a navy blue 3″ diameter Daly Plumbing Supply of Boston Crest under the porcelaine glaze between the seat hinges . Sure it is something like an 8 gallon flush, but water is included in the condo fee.


    my mom bought a POS co-op in Greenwich Village right outside the Con-Ed plant for 250k in 2002. She just sold it for 450k. Maybe you can get the higher end.

  26. Comrade Nom Deplorable, just waiting on the Zombie Apocalypse. says:

    Forgot that this is a paywall site. I knew she moved recently but I didn’t know the backstory.

    “The legal chief at Fifth Third Bank who was lost her job over a romantic relationship has landed a new gig in private practice.
    BuckleySandler announced Thursday it has hired Heather Russell as a partner in its financial institutions regulation, supervision and technology (FIRST) practice group. She’ll work out of the firm’s Washington, D.C., office.
    Russell joined Fifth Third, Ohio’s largest bank, as its chief legal officer in 2015. As the Wall Street Journal first reported, the bank later learned she was having a romantic relationship with the CEO of Fannie Mae, Tim Mayopoulos, and fired her in July on the grounds that the relationship presented a conflict of interest. . . . “

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