From the WSJ:
U.S. Pending Home Sales Edged Higher in October
The number of homes that went under contract inched higher in October, a sign the housing market could be plateauing in the final months of the year.
The National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that its pending home sales index, which tracks contract signings for previously owned homes, edged up 0.1% from a downwardly revised September reading to a seasonally adjusted 110.0. Sales typically close within a month or two of signing.
“Home sales likely have peaked,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. He said buyers have been trying to lock in low mortgage rates in recent weeks before they head higher, but that pattern won’t hold for long.
“We expect home sales clearly to fall in the first quarter,” Mr. Shepherdson said.
October’s reading was 1.8% above where the index stood in October a year ago, and the highest since July.
But the housing market is facing a number of headwinds, including rising mortgage rates, home price appreciation that has outpaced most workers’ wage gains, and limited inventory. In September, U.S. home prices climbed back above the record reached more than a decade ago, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price index released Tuesday.
Borrowing costs were still low in October. The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in October was 3.47%, below the October 2015 average of 3.80%, according to Freddie Mac. But the average rate on a 30-year fixed conforming mortgage has risen to 4.16%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, up from post-Brexit lows around 3.6%.
Daniel Silver, an economist at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., said the key question “is what will happen to the housing market following the increase in rates that occurred since early in November.”
…
The pending-home sales report showed the index rose in all four regions of the country since October 2015, with the strongest annual growth in the Northeast. Lawrence Yun, the trade group’s chief economist, said 40% of October’s sales were at or above their listed price, a rise from 33% last October.
But not in NJ, from Otteau:
In October, the number of contract purchases by homebuyers exceeded the same month in the prior year for the 26th consecutive month, reflecting a 4% increase over October 2015. Considering the 9% increase (y-o-y) in October of 2015, home sales have increased by 14% over the past 2 years. This latest gain was the highest number of purchase contracts recorded in the month of October of the past 11 years.
On a year-to-date basis (January-October) home purchase demand in New Jersey has increased by 13%. This increase has however been largely concentrated in lower priced homes as first-time ‘Millennial’ buyers begin to transition from rentership to homeownership. By comparison, the number of luxury home sales priced at $2,500,000 and above declined by 4% this year. Reasons for this trend include a greater number of younger-age first home buyers, trade-down purchases by older-age empty-nesters, and relaxed mortgage lending standards which have reduced minimum down-payment amounts.
Shifting to the supply side of the equation, the supply of homes being offered for sale remains constricted, which is limiting choices for home buyers. The number of homes being offered for sale today in New Jersey has declined by nearly 7,000 (-13%) compared to one year ago. This is also about 28,000 (-39%) fewer homes on the market compared to the cyclical high in 2011. Today’s unsold inventory equates to 5.2 months of sales (non-seasonally adjusted), which is lower than one year ago when it was 6.3 months.
Currently, the majority (90%) of New Jersey’s 21 counties have less than 8.0 months of supply, which is a balance point for home prices. Hudson County is presently experiencing the strongest market conditions in the state with just 2.7 months of supply, followed by Union, Essex, Bergen, Somerset, Monmouth, Morris, Middlesex and Passaic Counties, which all have fewer than 5 months of supply. None of the counties have an unsold inventory level equivalent to a supply of 12 months or greater, however those with the largest amount of unsold inventory are concentrated in the southern portion of the state including Salem (9.9) and Atlantic (10.3).
I believe exactly the opposite. The Left limits freedoms…while the right protects them.
It’s the progressive wing of the left that scares me. I prefer constitutional orientalists.
Remember, a conservative leaning supreme court upheld obamacare and gay marriage. I doubt progressive leftists would be as objective.
Essex says:
December 1, 2016 at 4:03 am
I agree that failed social engineering defines the left to a point, but seriously? The right will limit freedoms under this new regime. But hey, you wanna feel ‘safe’ right?
constitutional “originalists”…goddam autocorrect.
Unless you’re talking to the freedoms of non-citizens. The left protects(and awards) them even when they don’t exist.
I believe exactly the opposite. The Left limits freedoms…while the right protects them.
So it begins.
It’s happening even earlier than what I called for. I was expecting this by 2017, with 2018 being the latest. Well it started in 2016. Obviously, we are in the very very early stages of this next real estate boom for our area, but it’s here and it’s only going to get stronger. Still doubting the Millennial urge to buy a home? Well here they come.
God, I wish I had more money to purchase during this down period we just experienced. I did the best I could, was only 31 and purchased as much as I could afford under the low price/low rate environment. Would have been nice to add one or two more during this time, but my wife got in the way of that. I was fine with living in one of my apartments and buying 2-3 more income properties, but the wife wanted a better quality of life( my income property has a finished basement with a grandfathered in kitchen and bathroom…and no I don’t rent it out illegally. Not that kind of person. So we would have had two kitchens and two baths if we used the first floor and basement). She wanted single family living over money, told me that we make more than enough and she is content with what we have. Oh well, she is right, but it would have been nice having 3-4 income producing properties by now. Would have been pretty close to retirement, but would have a lower quality of life. Money isn’t everything, much rather have my daughter grow up in a single family home.
“On a year-to-date basis (January-October) home purchase demand in New Jersey has increased by 13%. This increase has however been largely concentrated in lower priced homes as first-time ‘Millennial’ buyers begin to transition from rentership to homeownership. By comparison, the number of luxury home sales priced at $2,500,000 and above declined by 4% this year. Reasons for this trend include a greater number of younger-age first home buyers, trade-down purchases by older-age empty-nesters, and relaxed mortgage lending standards which have reduced minimum down-payment amounts.”
“Constitutional orientalists” sounds like a costume that an underage Thai girl might wear to please Clinton on one of these flights:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/14/bill-clinton-ditched-secret-service-on-multiple-lo/
Yep. Rising interest rates and stagnant wages are surefire ingredients of every real estate boom, DumbPump. “Inez, start packing. All 10 of us are moving on up to Passaic County! The houses aren’t selling, and the illegals are getting kicked out. Soon, with the excess supply we will be able to get some really cheap rentals over that hill by William Paterson.”
Obviously, we are in the very very early stages of this next real estate boom for our area
Yes, the same cartel that artificially lowered the price to take out their competition by flooding the market. My point was indeed to throw a jab at “free market” ideology. I love the idea of a free market too, but I’m not ignorant enough to think a free market can coexist with human nature. Do you think people always think rationally? So how can you base an entire economic system based on the idea that they will make rational choices? Like I said, free market theory rules, but human nature is a bi!ch.
Spend one day trying to sell merchandise at a flea market and you’ll see very quickly how market mechanisms minimize price.
Good thinking, because if you let her out in the yard she’s likely to be run over by a vehicle or delivery truck driving at highway speeds.
Money isn’t everything, much rather have my daughter grow up in a single family home.
All you need is a time machine and you can go back to this Summer and get a mortgage 100 basis points cheaper than today. I know what Archie Bunker would call you, DumpPump.
“On a year-to-date basis (January-October) home purchase demand in New Jersey has increased by 13%.
Lost seriously who talks the way you do in your last post? Do you talk to your friends the same way.
Love my house. House comes with pro’s and con’s, nothing is perfect. My house is pretty close to what is perfect for me. If I felt my road was not safe to raise my daughter, I would not have bought the house.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
December 1, 2016 at 8:51 am
Good thinking, because if you let her out in the yard she’s likely to be run over by a vehicle or delivery truck driving at highway speeds.
It’s a blog. Just showing some insight into my life. Think some of the best posts on here are when people give a peak into their life and thought processes.
What is wrong with what I said?
3b says:
December 1, 2016 at 9:11 am
Lost seriously who talks the way you do in your last post? Do you talk to your friends the same way.
It’s a blog. Just showing some insight into my life. Think some of the best posts on here are
when people give a peak into their life and thought processes.whatever my deranged brain tells me to write at any given minute.Lost ok. Nothing wrong with it if you like it I guess.
Agree, but when you control valuable resources that are limited, the free market turns to the dark side. They inflate the actual cost by holding back supply. Think diamonds for example.
“Spend one day trying to sell merchandise at a flea market and you’ll see very quickly how market mechanisms minimize price.”
DumbPump – You never told us what rate you scored in your Summer re-fi?
Show us on the doll where the left restricted women’s reproductive freedoms. And voting freedoms. And gay freedoms. And non Christian religious freedoms. Because I can show you where the right has done so and continues to do it.
The truth is you only care about the freedoms that affect straight white men and their moneyed interests, like the genocidal slave and landowners who wrote the constitution. Bet you really do think black people are only worth three fifths of whites.
D-FENS says:
December 1, 2016 at 7:37 am
I believe exactly the opposite. The Left limits freedoms…while the right protects them.
It’s the progressive wing of the left that scares me. I prefer constitutional orientalists.
And yet you hang on his every word.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
December 1, 2016 at 9:25 am
It’s a blog. Just showing some insight into my life. Think some of the best posts on here are when people give a peak into their life and thought processes. whatever my deranged brain tells me to write at any given minute.
Well Trump is going the Goldman Sachs route for Treasury Secretary.
I expect tax cuts and no corresponding spending cuts. A trillion or so fiscal spending program. Another $10T or so added to the national debt that Obama doubled from $10-20T.
I also don’t expect any upward movement in rates by the FED during a Trump administration. Even with the 50 or 100 year Treasury bond Mnuchin is floating around there’s too much of a budget expense financing debt if rates rise.
Trump = tax cuts and fiscal spending increase and no corresponding spending cuts. Just a rearranging of the deck chairs on the Titanic. No change. No hope. Just kick that can Donald.
Fed will try and keep talking the market down with chatter of rate hikes. Never going to happen.
Rising rates are a sign of stronger economy. They wouldn’t raise it, if it couldn’t handle it. Remember, raising the rates is used to cool off the economy. Early stage rise in rates never ever cool the economy off. We have long ways to go before the rates get to a point where they will slow down the economy. Right now, these are healthy rate increases, we don’t want to overheat the economy. Steady rise till we bust.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
December 1, 2016 at 8:45 am
Yep. Rising interest rates and stagnant wages are surefire ingredients of every real estate boom, DumbPump. “Inez, start packing. All 10 of us are moving on up to Passaic County! The houses aren’t selling, and the illegals are getting kicked out. Soon, with the excess supply we will be able to get some really cheap rentals over that hill by William Paterson
How many of you would buy a home and then sell yours?? Just curious.
Try it the other way around, let me know how that works for you. I left someone hanging for 7 months while I was considering every piece of sh1t imaginable. So, I found a house, made an offer, sold mine in 72 hours above ask with multiple bids, closed on the sale and then closed on the purchase. Don’t envy me for being more savvy than most.
Trump = tax cuts and fiscal spending increase and no corresponding spending cuts.
They’ll be spending cuts. And adding real jobs and not 2 part time sh1t jobs will increase the tax base. The guy isn’t even president yet and already, I feel the wheels of the economic train beginning to turn.
I don’t know who is in more of a dream world. Eddie or Lost.
I’m no big Trump fan, but this is correct…..
“Moreover, Americans are getting a taste of Trump’s brand of showmanship and transparency. The crowds of cameras and press corps, along with tourists, in and near Trump Tower are unlike anything we’ve ever seen in a presidential transition.
Where job applicants, visitors and advisers previously scurried unseen into back rooms, here they must walk past the crowds to the elevators as C-span’s press-pool camera catches them live for national viewing. Most now realize they should stop and make a few comments for people at home.
The extraordinary scene is a security nightmare for police and the Secret Service, but a godsend for Americans eager to see if their next president really does have their backs. It’s also highly entertaining, as a Boston professor noted when he said, “This is like watching ‘The Apprentice: White House Edition.’ ””
http://nypost.com/2016/11/30/trump-already-winning-and-hes-not-even-president-yet/
This part also cuts to the heart whether Trump is thin-skinned…..he is certainly thin skinned in form, but may not in substance…………………..
The most stunning development is that Mitt Romney remains in serious consideration for secretary of state. Romney’s savage attacks on Trump during the campaign would seem to have made him permanently radioactive.
Yet their dinner Tuesday was their second meeting and another sign that the consideration is serious. While I’m not a fan of the idea, Trump’s outreach shows he is capable of rising above personal differences for the good of the country.
He could be setting up Romney as a successor if he doesn’t want to run for the second term. Romney had no foreign affair credentials in ’08 election. Four years as SOS he can claim he does. I am just glad it’s not Bolton and the other neo-con clowns who brought us the Iraq war.
Just have Mexico pay for everything.
Ottoman knows I’m right. When he gets riled up I know I’m getting somewhere.
I don’t see Mitt having a cabinet position, giving Dem Senators the opportunity during confirmation hearings to ask if he still thinks Trump is a phony and a fraud.
Oh please. I hope Republicans fight for all civil rights for all races and religions. I so sick of the lying.
My hope is that black people in the United States wake up and realize that a vote for a Democrat is a vote for the party that enslaved them and fought a brutal civil war to keep them in chains.
“Bet you really do think black people are only worth three fifths of whites.”
BTW the whole Romney anti-trump tirade was a favor to Paul Ryan. Trump gets elected it puts 8 years onto Ryan’s presidential aspirations. Pence isn’t a viable national candidate. Too far right on social issues.
BTW, when Roe v. Wade was decided…a majority of the justices on the Supreme Court were appointed by Republicans.
Face it fellas….The blog has lost some of it’s key players. Names to some…Icons to others. But Libtard your IDs are disturbing, Bro.
We still have Essex
Expat, send a linkedin message to JJ. Tell him to get his butt back here.
Maybe I’ll call his home phone and tell his wife to send him back.
I forget, how close to the Fed meeting does the stock market start threatening the FOMC?
Show us on the doll where the left restricted women’s reproductive freedoms.
“Reproductive freedom”? I no of no conservative policy stance that limits any woman’s right or ability to reproduce freely.
No, you’re going all euphemistic to hide the ball. The only “reproductive freedom” the left is concerned about, really the only “choice” you mind-numbed goose-steppers will allow, is the choice to kill unborn babies. Which, in the fitness of time, will come to be seen as barbaric as chattel slavery. You are on the wrong side of history.
The rest – “voting freedoms. And gay freedoms. And non Christian religious freedoms” Any restrictions are figments of your deranges imagination. You quote them only in service of your leftist narrative — if “freedoms” aren’t at risk from the right, your ideology looks pretty useless. So every day is still Jim Crow, and even now, having re-elected Obama twice, the country is still “Pacist” for turning out his apparent successor.
I pity your little mind.
If you think Trump is thin skinned try watching his Comedy Central roast (it’s readily available online). He is eviscerated from start to finish, even hit with cancer jokes. At the end he gets up to the microphone and states “Tough crowd, but tonight we raised $XX million dollars for charity. Thanks for coming”
Also watch Trump’s interview with “Ali G” who scams famous people by asking silly questions. Far as I know Trump is the only person who saw through the comedian in 10 seconds and walked out of the room. There are 100+ famous people burned by Ali G, struggling through the entire time-wasting interview for 15 minutes.
The more I hear about trump’s economic plan, the more grateful I am for the people that voted him into office. Thank you!! I thought the guy was a joke, but I don’t think so anymore. He really might go down as one of the greatest ever. He is bringing real change.
Lost = realtor101 = every other attempt at satire
Fast, I’m not hear to mess with you guys. No satire, I truly believe the guy cares about the country and is bringing real change. He’s not even in office yet, but he’s the first president during my lifetime (1980) that has prevented jobs from being shipped to some low cost country. About time, finally someone that cares about this country and the people living in it.
I want a job constructing the wall.
I was haranguing my kids to eat breakfast so we could get out the door for school, when my son (10) offered a series of choices to my daughter (7) under the heading “would you rather?”
(1) $1 Billion with a 5% chance of instant death;
(2) $1 Million with a 3% chance of instant death;
(3) No money and you live.
My daughter chose (3).
Here is the accepted theoretical framework describing this behavior.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_aversion
There is also the impact of this issue.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Framing_effect_(psychology)
clot has been silenced
jj unemployed
ragnar has been numbed
BC Bob AWOL
Booya Bob playing with his toys
What was the old military guys’ name?
Grim, why is my comment stuck in limbo? Seemed innocuous enough.
Another good story over at the APP: Exposing corrupt municipal courts using NJ citizens as human ATM’s….
http://www.app.com/story/news/investigations/watchdog/investigations/2016/11/27/exclusive-inside-municipal-court-cash-machine/91233216/
Somewhere in between burying her mother and taking care of her sick father in Maryland, Neptune resident Karen Marsh forgot to renew the licenses for her two rescue poodles.
Instead of paying the $17-per-dog renewal fee, she was compelled to spend a March day in municipal court and then pay $122 in fines and fees. The total would have been $178, but the judge suspended one of the fines in exchange for a guilty plea.
Marsh became prey to a system that increasingly treats hundreds of thousands of residents each year as human ATMs.
Many cash-strapped municipalities have turned to the law for new revenue, especially in small shore towns where municipal court revenues have nearly doubled in the last five years, an Asbury Park Press investigation found.
Towns have the power to pass new rules or increase fines on old ones. And just like the singular judge-jury-and-jailer of the old Western days, a town first enforces the higher fines through its police force, then sends the defendant to its local court — which is headed by a judge appointed by the town leaders who started the revenue quest in the first place
Baby D is in the living room being home schooled by a 3/5ths white. My electric smoker is on the deck doing it’s thing to a donated 20 lb. turkey that’s going to be half sliced and frozen and the other half turned into smoked turkey chili. Got an apartment rented (also donated) in Logan Square within walking distance to hospital (long walk) in Philadelphia for D’s upcoming radiation (30 treatments). And my 401k is finally showing some life. I see the ten year is flying higher and higher. Glad I locked in when I did. ULTA earnings this afternoon. Club still up nearly 17% on the year. If ULTA (we sold 1/4 of our position already) surprises, we might hit 20%. Madoff can suck it with Otto.
Oh dear…
Thanks To ‘Fight For $15’ Minimum Wage, McDonald’s Unveils Job-Replacing Self-Service Kiosks Nationwide
http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2016/11/29/thanks-to-fight-for-15-minimum-wage-mcdonalds-unveils-job-replacing-self-service-kiosks-nationwide/?hl=1
Kiosks….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbWfmWCkauQ
“Thanks To ‘Fight For $15’ Minimum Wage, McDonald’s Unveils Job-Replacing Self-Service Kiosks Nationwide”
Maybe the $15 minimum wage accelerated this, but in reality the minimum wage really has nothing to do with this. It has everything to do with technology, efficiency, and progress. Why make a human do that pointless work when you can get a machine to do it? Look at the self driving movement, it has nothing to do with minimum wage and everything to do with progress.
Damn, that chili sounds delicious. Thoughts and prayers with your son in his fight.
Lucked out with the refinance, too. 2.75%…closed two weeks before the election.
I’ve been very lucky with my timing. Bought pretty close to the bottom with my first, and at the bottom with my second. Now, hopefully hit bottom on the rates.
Merck firing hundreds of scientists in New Jersey. Yesterday, news broke of a huge new Merck research lab to be built in South San Francisco.
What is the problem in this state? I say it is stupid people not high taxes.
San Francisco house price 21 year CAGR +5.7%. Condo CAGR +6.6%. Source: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller.
Indisputable historical evidence home prices can grow faster than inflation over long term.
I tried to explain this on this board, but was called an idiot. People take the past 100 year’s worth of data and come up with the idea that housing really doesn’t go up in value. They leave out two major things; 1. Timing. 2. Location, location, location.
I’m up 150% on my first purchase 16 years ago. Did the price only keep up with inflation? It can stagnate for years and I’m still beating the hell out of inflation. But let’s pretend real estate is a terrible investment……that only applies to the suckers.
Brazilian Butt Lift says:
December 1, 2016 at 2:21 pm
San Francisco house price 21 year CAGR +5.7%. Condo CAGR +6.6%. Source: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller.
Indisputable historical evidence home prices can grow faster than inflation over long term.
I put down 40,000. Borrowed the rest. House was assessed two months ago for 495,000 (paid 200,000). How much money did I make off of 40,000 in 16 years? And we are not counting the rental income either. So maybe you could understand why I fought tooth and nail with this board that real estate is a bad investment. You really can’t beat it if you do it right.
Merck firing hundreds of scientists in New Jersey. Yesterday, news broke of a huge new Merck research lab to be built in South San Francisco.
What is the problem in this state? I say it is stupid people not high taxes.
Sad. This is why I can’t stand the insane drive to push kids into science. I’m sure those that are truly interested will pursue it. I took an interest in it myself and pursued it more than 99% of people ever would in the form of multiple degrees. In 2008, the same thing happened and you had thousands of unemployed pharma scientists. The supply/demand dynamics were as bad as any industry could get for people in NJ. I abandoned the idea of working in industry very quickly and moved into teaching.
Darwin’s natural selection in action…..some people are born with a bigger set of balls than others……
http://nypost.com/2016/12/01/engineer-in-deadly-derailment-sues-metro-north/
you idiot
Lost says:
December 1, 2016 at 2:35 pm
I tried to explain this on this board, but was called an idiot. People take the past 100 year’s worth of data and come up with the idea that housing really doesn’t go up in value. They leave out two major things; 1. Timing. 2. Location, location, location.
I’m up 150% on my first purchase 16 years ago. Did the price only keep up with inflation? It can stagnate for years and I’m still beating the hell out of inflation. But let’s pretend real estate is a terrible investment……that only applies to the suckers.
Brazilian Butt Lift says:
December 1, 2016 at 2:21 pm
San Francisco house price 21 year CAGR +5.7%. Condo CAGR +6.6%. Source: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller.
Indisputable historical evidence home prices can grow faster than inflation over long term.
Lost did you pay market price? buying assets below market with govt subsidized financing is usually a recipe for making money.
I’m up 150% on my first purchase 16 years ago. Did the price only keep up with inflation? It can stagnate for years and I’m still beating the hell out of inflation. But let’s pretend real estate is a terrible investment……that only applies to the suckers.
Up 150% over the course of 16 years isn’t something to be bragging about. Some conservative investments into various stocks have yielded much much more return over a much much shorter time period.
Hard to argue with SF real estate, but NJ…not so much. No one is getting rich off NJ real estate. NYC? Maybe. NJ, I’ve seen some towns weather the storm. That has more to do with the school systems than anything. It’s funny to watch demand go through the floor when NJ monthly drops you 40 spots.
Hey pumpkin, just curious, what work have you done to the house over the course of those 16 years?
http://webhome.cs.uvic.ca/~wkui/Scientist.html
Read this article about career in science. Better path is s@ck d!ck 4 ca$h.
12:37 SAS….the most interesting man in the room. Possibly armed.
2:44 Research is coagulating around Boston and SF. Look for that the be the norm. Jerzey just aint got the goods…anymore.
Without knowing any details, the trend in life sciences is away from developing old-style compounds and more toward gene sequencing and biotechnology. Again, I am just a hack, but I think the access to Silicon Valley/SF tech workers was probably the leading reason, and probably pitted Eastern MA versus Bay Area.
Merck’s Pipeline (note the incidence of the word CANCER) is focused mainly on oncology through reprogramming human genes to attack cancer cells.
http://www.merck.com/research/index.html#Pipeline
Still WTF do I know?……
Brazilian Butt Lift says:
December 1, 2016 at 2:15 pm
Merck firing hundreds of scientists in New Jersey. Yesterday, news broke of a huge new Merck research lab to be built in South San Francisco.
What is the problem in this state? I say it is stupid people not high taxes.
THE END IS NIGH!!!!!
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/18180537
Forgot to add in the fact I was using the banks money. That 40,000 is worth a lot now.
I’m your same age. Came from a poor family (while your dad was a doctor)and I passed you up. Yet, you continue to spit on my achievements. American dream, baby!! I’m living it. That’s why I will not disrespect nj and the opprtunities it has given me. Thank you to the nj education system and this glorious economy that took me from the bottom towards the top. You just have to take risks and want it. The opportunities are there. My brother is killing it with his business. We passed up all our friends. Their parents used to do the same thing you do to me…they would put me down for not having money like them. That drove my siblings and myself to go get it. Now I love the look in their parents eyes when they see how much better I’m doing than their kids. Wish I was friends with you growing up, would love to see your parents reaction. Enough putting me down, give a little respect for once.
“Up 150% over the course of 16 years isn’t something to be bragging about. Some conservative investments into various stocks have yielded much much more return over a much much shorter time period.”
DumbPump is so up to his eyes in 3 mortgages that all he can stomach doing is pretending he is right. He never shows us any of his “research” on “demographics” and “cycles” that he claimed to have done a priori.
Were you pulling off legendary investment moves when you were 20?
chicagofinance says:
December 1, 2016 at 2:46 pm
you idiot
Also, pancake in a can is not keeping pace with the S&P 500. What a genius investor.
Pity by Nana on her addled, no future, grandson is not usually the same thing as a legendary investment move.
For the shooters…here we go again….call your state legislator
https://anjrpc.site-ym.com/page/AttackOnRangesAnd
ChiFi,
So, I guess Gronk will be out when the Giants play the Pats in the Super bowl.
This may be a sign of market peak. I was out walking my dog in Church Square park in Hoboken. Southeast corner of the park they dumped an older building and are building a new one. Top two floors are going to a 1400+ duplex. Sign says they are asking $3.9 million.
Homes are worth 1.2….I have 450,000 left….I’m okay.
Demographics are there. This big slow down since 2008 had more to do with demographic spending patterns than the 2008 crash itself. If you followed the boomer demographic group’s spending patterns as they aged, you could have predicted this all.
You know how people spend in different parts of their life. In their 40’s and 50’s are peak spending years. So is it no surprise the housing market exploded at the stage where people buy second homes or upgrade? Throw in the business cycles, and this last housing boom was easily predicted by demographic peak spending years. Throw in the easy access to loans combined with low rates and it was easy to see this would boom.
Followed by peak spending years are the lowest spending years in their 60’s as they start to buckle down for retirement. So is it no surprise how bad the economy stagnated (even with zirp injection) as boomers went into their least spending years?
Now a new generation that starts with my year (1980) are coming to take over the economy and bring back spending which drives the growth in the economy.
If you want me to provide data and numerical evidence to support this. I will, but trust me, demographics and business cycles drive it all. If you are long term investor, this is how you become wealthy by riding these booms and busts, over and over again till the compounding is insane.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
December 1, 2016 at 3:02 pm
DumbPump is so up to his eyes in 3 mortgages that all he can stomach doing is pretending he is right. He never shows us any of his “research” on “demographics” and “cycles” that he claimed to have done a priori.
No, I had 50,000 knocked off price. Yes, lucky, but I also created my own luck. Can’t do it alone, always need help along the way. The most prosperous people know how to take advantage when a helping hand is given.
jcer says:
December 1, 2016 at 2:46 pm
Lost did you pay market price? buying assets below market with govt subsidized financing is usually a recipe for making money.
NYC or sf never dreamed of reaching current heights, so why in the hell would you bet against Hoboken? It’s no peak, it’s called valuable real estate.
HEHEHE says:
December 1, 2016 at 3:25 pm
This may be a sign of market peak. I was out walking my dog in Church Square park in Hoboken. Southeast corner of the park they dumped an older building and are building a new one. Top two floors are going to a 1400+ duplex. Sign says they are asking $3.9 million.
It’s called a pipe dream. It’s not even on the Hudson.
You should dive in Lost. Then you can spend every second after signing on the dotted line searching for a bigger fool.
Hehehe, is that 7 Star Pizza? If so Albanian guy who owned that place made millions. Just like the small parking lot owners around Journal Square who are selling real estate with nothing 20 years ago for millions today.
Lol….the premise of the whole game. There’s always a greater fool. Don’t fight it, act on it.
HEHEHE says:
December 1, 2016 at 3:46 pm
You should dive in Lost. Then you can spend every second after signing on the dotted line searching for a bigger fool.
Most of you ant-LOST guys are idiots, jealous or a combination of both. I bought a 4 family in 1997 for 169k with 10% down. That’s $17k. original note was at 9% but refinanced down to 4.75. That property alone is now netting me almost $2k a month. That’s after all taxes, p&I, etc. Will S&P or other index match that? Don’t forget, income , after taxes, is the game here.
Of course millions could not vote illegally, except, take this real life situation. My son goes to college in NC and registers to vote there and actually votes multiple times. After graduating he spends time back home in NJ. We file taxes with NJ as his residence. He takes a job in California and registers to vote there prior to the election. He actually votes in November in Cali….but what stopped him from visiting friends in NC and getting an absentee ballot or actually voting early? Also before leaving NJ, since he had a NJ drivers license, what stopped him from registering here and getting an absentee ballot and voting …thus voting 3 times?
Is there some super computer match going on? Or is this a big swiss cheese situation?
Across the street. A couple buildings down from the cupcake place. It’s going to be a 4-5 story building. It’s possible there are city views; for now. In Hoboken you never know what’s going to go up behind you.
Seven Star is still there serving its “delicious” pizza.
Depending how much of your equity line you burned, I count up to 717K. You know these are publicly recorded, right?
Homes are worth 1.2….I have 450,000 left….I’m okay.
Oh, I get it. 450K left in equity, but still servicing 700K.
Yeah, but that 3.9MM gets you views of the rowdy late-night basketball games in the park just across the corner, from the comfort of your own home. It’s better than season tickets!
7-stars is the only place I’ve seen someone order a “nasty slice” and no, I’ve never dared to order one myself to find out exactly what it is.
HEHEHE says:
December 1, 2016 at 3:25 pm
Top two floors are going to a 1400+ duplex. Sign says they are asking $3.9 million.
My legendary “financial” move at 20 was switching schools within Cornell.
My brother and I concurrently were in college. He graduated in 1988, and then my mom got her (measely) piece of my grandmother’s estate. She was a divorced secretary that rented a roach infested apartment in Flushing Queens behind the LIRR Port Washington branch (I grew up in that apartment).
She paid $2,000 for my sophmore year, but they were going to cut her off completely from financial aid because of the inheritance. I knew where that money came from as my mom’s father died when she was 7, and my grandmother slaved like a dog for years until her heart gave out.
At 20 I dropped my tuiton from $15,000 to $4,000 and took two jobs. As an accounting TA, and also managing a coffeehouse on campus. I took out loans and got a credit card. I also busted my a$$ on a summer internship at Lord Abbett so the managing partner gave me $1,000 bonus to a stupid intern.
Go fcuk yourself you oblivious entitled dot-connector.
Lost says:
December 1, 2016 at 3:04 pm
Were you pulling off legendary investment moves when you were 20?
chicagofinance says:
December 1, 2016 at 2:46 pm
you idiot
You know nothing. Just like you thought you knew my taxes. Try harder my friend, try harder. You know it all, yet you know nothing. Stop trying to paint me black with your bs. I have been honest since day 1 in this blog.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
December 1, 2016 at 4:21 pm
Depending how much of your equity line you burned, I count up to 717K. You know these are publicly recorded, right?
I’m proud of your accomplishments. Good for you, but don’t get mad after I hit back when you call me an idiot.
“Go fcuk yourself you oblivious entitled dot-connector.”
Pumpkin/Lost’s real estate acumen::Hillary Clinton’s cattle futures acumen
You can be a moron and still get swept in a favorable direction by the tide. Not everyone born on third base thinks they hit a triple, however. When you write your “How I Got Rich” tome, don’t leave out the part about Grandma giving you your first house at a family discount. Everyone should have a generous relative.
Forget Real Estate. ULTA baby! Maybe they should start canning shampoo?
How many years you have left on those tiny mortgages pumpkin?
I’m painting you in the red. Do you want me to post links to your mortgages?
You know nothing. Just like you thought you knew my taxes. Try harder my friend, try harder. You know it all, yet you know nothing. Stop trying to paint me black with your bs. I have been honest since day 1 in this blog.
Legendary financial windfall at 20…well, I was living in flyover country with a grandmother who wanted to tour the east coast and reconnect with a bunch of relatives out here. Said “Sure Grandma” and packed a few extra sets of earplugs and bandanas as grandma loved to prattle on….my mom asked me ‘you sure you want to do this??’ and I am like…yeah, sometimes you gotta do something for someone else…right?
Cut to the fall, get a super nice letter from one of the couples we visited. This was an artist living in the lake George area with her husband, an ex-French resistance fighter from Paris.
They cut me a check to cover grad school.
Bang.
I’m your same age. Came from a poor family (while your dad was a doctor)and I passed you up.
Lol, so lemme get this straight, you came from a poor family but you played tennis? Doubtful. What town did you grow up in again.
Yes, my father was a doctor. He went to medical school in Mexico when he was 25 (I was a newborn at the time) He was then in a 6 year residency for Neonatology. He then, was required to do another 6 years because foreign doctors must do twice as long of a residency to acquire a license. So when he turned 42, he started making money. At that point, I was 16. You know how much money he made during those residencies? Nothing… My family lived in absolute poverty my entire life. We didn’t own a house. We lived at my grandparents home with my cousins. At one point, they collected welfare and food stamps. I was out of the house by age 18 and never looked back. Never got a dime.
And FYI, my dad did become a millionaire by the time I was 24. He then flushed it all down the toilet a few years later mortgaging all his properties. He then left my mom, and purposely let his properties get foreclosed on. He’s now dirt poor living in his idiot girlfriends town home driving a truck without a fender.
As per my grandmother, she didn’t give me anything. In fact, her home just finally got foreclosed on in Bergenfield a few months back. As far as my dad goes, I talk to him maybe once a year, and my four year old son and two year old daughter have no idea who he is.
Don’t act like you passed me up. You didn’t. I can only imagine how you got your job and how you manage to keep it with all the time wasted on here.
I didn’t have parents that pushed me. Neither of them took much interest in anything I did and often I was just on my own. I nearly flunked out of high school when I was 14.
I put myself through undergraduate and graduate school on my own and studied subjects that are far beyond your capacity to learn. I’ve earned everything on my own and live in more than a nice enough home that I could pay off in cash right now if I want to.
3.9 million for a condo near Church Square Park? I have been out of Hoboken for 3.5 years now and I can still smell sewage coming from the combined sewers. At least you can still get a few slices of bacon covered pizza at 3 am thanks to the hard working folks at 7 star pizza.
Pumps isn’t giving you the whole story about his RE investing genius either. He and Nana took some mortgages together, but his name wasn’t on the deed until 2011. He also had to take a mortgage on both houses to pay off his gargantuan existing mortgage on his highway palace. It looks like he wasn’t able to qualify for a mortgage on his current place the size of the one he already had, which doesn’t speak favorably to the appraisal numbers.
15
Steamturd thinking about the remains of Hillary’s umbilical stump says:
December 1, 2016 at 6:43 pm
How many years you have left on those tiny mortgages pumpkin?
Dude, you have me confused with someone else. Why would I have a 700,000 mortgage? How? Do the math. I took a 15 year mortgage on my first house. My second home cost 650,000 (plus 5,000 on the side, will explain later when I get a chance). So how in the hell do I owe 700,000? Please fuc!ing explain it to me before you tarnish my name.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
December 1, 2016 at 7:01 pm
I’m painting you in the red. Do you want me to post links to your mortgages?
Ben, I’m sorry that I said what I said. I just feel like you always attack me and put me down. I’m sorry for what I said and I’m proud that you overcame all the life obstacles thrown your way.
You seriously have me confused with someone else. Dude, I am dead serious, you have confused with another person. Believe me or don’t believe, I really don’t care. Its an internet blog, what do I have to prove?
The Original NJ ExPat says:
December 1, 2016 at 7:52 pm
Pumps isn’t giving you the whole story about his RE investing genius either. He and Nana took some mortgages together, but his name wasn’t on the deed until 2011. He also had to take a mortgage on both houses to pay off his gargantuan existing mortgage on his highway palace. It looks like he wasn’t able to qualify for a mortgage on his current place the size of the one he already had, which doesn’t speak favorably to the appraisal numbers.
You look like the guy who just replaced your $520K Wells-Fargo mortgage (80% of $650K purchase price) with a $417K mortgage while taking a new mortgage on Nana’s place for $170K, totaling $587K, both mortgages from “Get A Rate LLC” in Elmwood Park. You also have a HELOC for $130K (Spencer Savings Bank), so adding that all up comes to $717K. Maybe you have not balance on the HELOC, I don’t know, don’t care.
Dude, you have me confused with someone else. Why would I have a 700,000 mortgage? How? Do the math. I took a 15 year mortgage on my first house. My second home cost 650,000 (plus 5,000 on the side, will explain later when I get a chance). So how in the hell do I owe 700,000? Please fuc!ing explain it to me before you tarnish my name.
You def have me confused with someone else. Not going to sit here and go back forth with you. Wtf does it matter anyway?
Maybe your wife is taking out loans with a guy pretending to be you?
He’s got your signature copied pretty well, if that’s the case though.
Looks like I missed a lot this afternoon.
Lost: it matters if you are lying and pretending that you are a savvy real estate investor and stock market investors and all around super smart guy with a great job. It appears ex pat knows you somehow.
Expat, if this is indeed me, where did this money go? Why would I need call these helocs? Why would my name not be on the deed till 2011? I didn’t qualify for the mortgage on my current house? You are telling me my grandma’s house wasn’t paid off? Wtf, why did she give me a 50,000 discount then? That sure makes a whole lot of sense. Enough with this, I’m serious. Not responding to this bs anymore since you clearly have me confused with someone else.
Thanks, expat. See what you did. Good job, now I have to deal with this crap for who knows how long.
3b says:
December 1, 2016 at 8:34 pm
Lost: it matters if you are lying and pretending that you are a savvy real estate investor and stock market investors and all around super smart guy with a great job. It appears ex pat knows you somehow.
ExPat – Yeesh I was never fan of doxxing in an anonymous forum. There are various reasons why we remain anon, but it is mostly to keep our thoughts and opinions which we dare to type out in public forum away from the prying eyes of family, friends and enemies.
I say let pumps be pumps. He also isn’t wrong right now the real estate markets have picked up a few knots in speed up except for the burbs of NJ it seems. Why of course is the real question.
It won’t take much of a recession for the winds to change direction either. There simply isn’t allot of wind in the main sail unless you are playing the condo game in a few markets. This real estate ship is moving albeit slowly, with the loosening credit that is now being deployed like a spinnaker this ship will start moving faster.
History rhymes, we shall find out soon enough if this ship sails smoothly into port or crashes on the rocks again.
Methinks thou doth protest to much. BTW, maybe your Mom was on the deed and mortgage with you bought it from your Nana? All I know is that some old lady was on both the mortgage and deed until 2011. As for your mortgages, you paid off a $520K and took on a $417K and $170K on the other house. My guess is that leaves just enough money to buy the big Volvo and then you’ll have your suburban dream complete….except for the paying for it all part.
Expat, if this is indeed me, where did this money go? Why would I need call these helocs? Why would my name not be on the deed till 2011? I didn’t qualify for the mortgage on my current house? You are telling me my grandma’s house wasn’t paid off? Wtf, why did she give me a 50,000 discount then? That sure makes a whole lot of sense. Enough with this, I’m serious. Not responding to this bs anymore since you clearly have me confused with someone else.
Lost no worries. I am going to go back to ignoring you.
You really don’t (have to deal with this crap for who knows how long). I don’t think anyone here would seek you out if stopped showing up. Didn’t you say a couple days ago that there are some other blogs were people think like you? Maybe give a couple of those a spin?
Thanks, expat. See what you did. Good job, now I have to deal with this crap for who knows how long.
Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Sec.
You can expect the winds to pick up home lending.
Interesting way to solve the pharma issue. Its like that kid that 3D printed his own braces. Make your own!
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-38153254
So we have gone from: If they leave we will tax them, to if they stay we will give them free money.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/what-just-happened-with-carrier-is-crazy-223106708.html
Are we great yet Gary?
Steven Mnuchin /George Soros?
I think a few people in here need to rethink some discussion points.
Ben, I’m sorry that I said what I said. I just feel like you always attack me and put me down. I’m sorry for what I said and I’m proud that you overcame all the life obstacles thrown your way.
I do, because you say a lot of asinine crap. Aside from anon, everyone on this forum attacks you.
Fab – more proof you know nothing.
Companies regularly negotiate favorable tax treatment. It isn’t free money, and plenty of times the tax break is never delivered. Heck my company moved some jobs to NJ after lengthy negotiations with Christie’s admin during the last recession. Guess what the program is approved by the legislature and was summarily cut by them, we never got our tax breaks which pay out over several years. Will we move the jobs? Next time it could be Florida to really put a thumb in someones eye.
Wait until the details come out, it will be a multi year deal mostly state taxes. The point is Trump will sit down and negotiate and not pontificate while we slowly bleed the middle class jobs.
Fab re:”need to rethink some discussion points”
Not really the money has to be lent into existence somewhere in the economy, you get to pick and place your bets where.
Mine is on housing, so step up an place yer bets.
Fab – I give those kids credit for what they have done by pulling wool over everyone’s eyes.
Now go ahead and make your own acetylsalicylic acid. That will cost a heck of allot more than $20.
You really think they can make that drug without cost?
Lost and his tarnished name…anyway let’s stop attacking the poor guy. Think of him as Candide in the ante room of hell. Happy Friday
It’s only a matter of time til we really do the deed. I’ve been threatening for a couple of years to try to sell. Fact is that I love my place — we just need more space. But it’s gonna cost us. Last year we were approved for $650k this year who knows, but that’s the figure we are running with. Of course that number only matters if we sell our place.